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BTC has stabilized above $72,000, maintaining a strong bullish structure, but short-term risks of a pullback after a surge should be watched. ETH is relatively weak, with $2,300 as the key dividing line between bulls and bears; a decisive break below this level would increase correction pressure. In terms of operations, it is recommended to lightly buy BTC on dips as long as it does not break below $71,000, but be cautious when chasing highs; for ETH, monitor the $2,300 support closely—if broken, reduce positions to avoid risk, with overall emphasis on controlling position size. $CORE has been one of the most puzzling laggards in the current bull run. While BTC, ETH, and SOL have all posted strong gains, often squeezing shorts aggressively, CORE—despite its BitcoinFi narrative—has barely moved. The market is telling a Bitcoin infrastructure story, yet the token price isn’t following. Here’s a breakdown of the real friction points holding it back. 🔍 1. Supply Overhang: The Elephant in the Room CORE’s total supply is 2.1 billion, with only about 60% currently in circulatThe order book density for PRL is currently very abnormal. Above 0.2620, there are continuous triple-digit sell orders pressing down, but every time it approaches 0.2480, some funds quickly eat up the first and second sell orders, then the orders are withdrawn again, as if they don't want to leave too many traces at this position. On-chain tracking shows that in the last two hours, a newly created wallet withdrew about 3.8 million PRL from the exchange in three separate transactions, with zero outflow after transfer. The spot net outflow has not been replenished, effectively locking up the available sellable chips temporarily. Such addresses often isolate inventory in preparation for the next upward move. I just rode my bike to an old building without an elevator; after delivering orders on the sixth floor, my legs were a bit shaky, but my eyes were still fixed on the 15-minute chart without looking away.
From the naked K-line perspective, the 4-hour level formed a long lower shadow near 0.2310, with rebounds testing 0.2620 twice but failing to break through the body, indicating heavy short stop-loss pressure above and unwillingness of buyers below to chase prices. The long-short ratio fluctuates repeatedly at low levels, contract positions are increasing but prices are not falling, which is characteristic of accumulation.
In terms of operation, the current price of 0.2558 is not suitable for direct chasing. Light long positions can be taken on pullbacks between 0.2490 and 0.2510, with a stop loss at 0.2440, first take profit at 0.2610, and second take profit at 0.2705. If it directly breaks above 0.2620 and the 15-minute candle closes without falling back, you can chase long with a stop loss at 0.2555 and a target of 0.2740. Do not participate in short positions.
$PRL
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
@OKX星球 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 21)
Shorts dominate the short term, longs crushed in the long term but with very small volume, typical retail trading in a low liquidity asset...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $56.42 $0 $56.42
4 hours $6,275.66 $0 $6,275.66
12 hours $23,500 $765.49 $22,700
24 hours $23,600 $765.49 $22,900
From the CORE liquidation data: shorts monopolize the entire 1-hour period, with zero long liquidations and a volume of only $56, a tentative short squeeze; at 4 hours the direction is confirmed, shorts continue to dominate with volume slightly rising to $6,300, shorts maintain control but absolute volume remains very low; at 12 hours shorts crush longs, shorts are 29.6 times the longs, volume jumps to $22,700, shorts control the market in a crushing manner but total volume is still very small; at 24 hours shorts and longs are basically balanced, shorts liquidated $22,900 vs longs $765.49, shorts are 29.9 times longs, cumulative liquidation only $23,600. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 99.6% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration—liquidations are almost entirely within 12 hours, with only about $100 increase in the following 12 hours, the market is almost stagnant. The short crushing ratio slightly rises from 29.6 times at 12 hours to 29.9 times at 24 hours, momentum basically stable, but absolute volume is extremely small (less than $30,000 in 24 hours), typical retail trading in a low liquidity asset, no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, this asset has very poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading reference.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 21
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: liquidity valve loosening, policy signal divergence, consumer IP iteration—three forces resonating on the same trading day.
₿ BTC breaks through $72,000: record short squeeze, but "false breakout" controversy remains
On August 20, Bitcoin continued its rally breaking $72,000, reaching an intraday high of $72,830, the highest since June. In the past 24 hours, approximately $2.75 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated, with Bitcoin accounting for about $1.7 billion—this is the largest full-market short squeeze recorded by CoinGlass since 2021. Total network liquidations reached $3.34 billion, with shorts accounting for $3 billion.
However, there is fierce disagreement on the sustainability of the rally. Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff called it a "false breakout," attributing it to a one-time doubling of long-term Treasury repo operations by the U.S. Treasury. Bulls argue that spot and perpetual futures demand have simultaneously turned positive for the first time since the October 2025 historical peak—if this can be maintained for another month, there is reason to believe a new bull market has begun. Spot ETFs attracted over $1 billion inflows from Monday to Wednesday, completely reversing last week's nearly $390 million outflow. Short covering accelerated the breakout, but whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000 increasingly depends on the sustainability of spot and ETF demand.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: Hawkish votes far exceed dissenters, but market prices the opposite
The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 19 showed the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the number of participants supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three official dissenters—the minutes revealed several attendees supported a 25 basis point hike at this meeting; many believed further tightening might be necessary if inflation does not decline.
Yet the market is pricing in a rate cut. After the minutes, the market assigned an 81.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. The minutes did not mention any support for rate cuts—the more hawkish the minutes, the more dovish the market, because the market prices not "who voted no," but the fact that "the economy is slowing."
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU slows, Star People surges 580% to take over
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan. Revenue in China surged 47.3% year-on-year to 12.2 billion yuan.
The IP landscape is undergoing drastic restructuring. THE MONSTERS series featuring LABUBU generated 4.45 billion yuan, still the top, but down 7.5% year-on-year, with revenue share dropping from 34.7% to 26%. New IP "Star People" generated 2.65 billion yuan, soaring 580.6% year-on-year, becoming the second largest IP. LABUBU slows, Star People takes over—Pop Mart's IP lifecycle management is facing its toughest test. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine, revenue up 60% year-on-year to 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2% of total revenue. The board announced a share repurchase plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan, the company's first repurchase plan announcement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin broke through $72,000 with a record $2.75 billion short squeeze, but the "false breakout" controversy remains—the key is whether spot buying can continue; CORE contract market liquidations totaled less than $24,000 all day, almost entirely within 12 hours, a low liquidity asset with invalid price action, no directional reference value; the more hawkish the Fed minutes, the more dovish the market, as economic slowdown signals outweigh inflation concerns; Pop Mart's LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, the IP landscape is undergoing a brutal old-new transition. When liquidity, policy, and consumption forces resonate simultaneously—the market is aggressively repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Wall Street's old money has opened the gates, and your ETF may soon have "on-chain stuff" mixed in. On August 21, 2026, Franklin Templeton received U.S. regulatory approval, planning to stuff tokenized assets into traditional ETFs and mutual funds. [Veteran's Ramblings] This matter is far more explosive than you imagine. Don't think this is another shady project team celebrating itself—this is an asset management giant managing over $1.5 trillion in assets, planting a blockchain flag at the heart of traditional finance. Many people have not yet realized what this means. This means that if you buy a regular U.S. stock ETF or a bond mutual fund in the future, your money may unknowingly be indirectly holding tokenized assets on-chain. You don't need to register a crypto exchange, don't need to memorize mnemonic phrases, and you don't even know what DeFi is. But your pension account and your retirement financial management are already tied to blockchain. Wall Street is using the gentlest and most covert methods to enlighten ordinary people about crypto. Liquidity is what Wall Street truly wants. Previously, tokenized assets mostly thrived within the crypto community, with poor liquidity and hard to find trading partners. Now, Franklin Templeton has directly pulled them into the holdings pool of traditional funds, even allowing them as collateral. This effectively opens a huge liquidity valve for these on-chain assets. Imagine a tokenized U.S. Treasury, which used to be only available on a few decentralized exchanges, can now become the underlying asset for multi-billion dollar ETFs—behind it all富兰克林邓普顿拿到监管许可 传统基金悄悄装上了加密引擎 8月21日消息，富兰克林邓普顿拿到美国监管许可，计划把代币化资产塞进传统基金产品里。 【老手的碎碎念】 这事儿，比表面看起来要炸得多。很多人看完新闻就划走了，觉得不就是个老牌资管搞点区块链噱头嘛。错。大错特错。你以为的加密世界，和华尔街老钱眼里的加密世界，压根不是同一个东西。 富兰克林邓普顿这步棋，本质上是在做一件事：把crypto从散户的赌场，变成机构的管道。他们要把代币化的货币市场基金塞进ETF和共同基金里，当持仓，当抵押品。这意味着什么？意味着一个买标普500 ETF的大爷，他压根不懂什么叫私钥，什么叫gas费，但他持有的基金底层资产里，已经跑在区块链上了。钱，从来都是聪明的。它不会管你接不接受，它只会自己找到最高效的路。 这才是真正的mass adoption。不是你天天喊的XRP要被银行用起来，不是SOL要进ETF。是这些传统金融的巨无霸，自己把crypto当成水管，把水引到自己的池子里。他们不买BTC，不买ETH，他们买的是代币化的美债，代币化的货币基金。这些东西，年化就5%左右，但胜在合规，胜在能7×24小时结算。华The 50-day moving average is chasing the 200-day moving average—is this Bitcoin's "golden cross" a real turning point or a bullish trap? On August 21, 2026, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average reached around $63,976, and the 200-day moving average stopped at around $69,005. As these two lines drew closer, the market was betting on a golden cross. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the words 'Golden Cross.' This is essentially a lagging indicator; the price has already gone up before confirming it. If you wait until you see a crossover to chase it, that early piece of the prime has already been gnawed up. The real highlight isn't the crossover itself, but the three things. First, since October 2025, Bitcoin has been hovering below the 200-day moving average, when the price was still around $110,000. Now, over the past half year, the price once fell above $71,000 before rebounding, and in the past week, it has risen more than 12%, climbing back above the 200-day moving average. From $63,976 to $69,005, the 50-day moving average needs to keep rising for the two lines to intersect. This 200-day moving average marks the dividing line between bulls and bears. Second, light crossovers are not enough; they must "stand firm." What does it mean to stand firm? It's not that it comes back with a single stab, but that it can't be broken by stepping on it. Based on the current market, $70,250 is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the first support to watch after a breakout. Only if it can hold 70,250 can buying truly take over; If it can't be held, this is a technical rebound driven by short closing — because in the past 24 hours, $517.19 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated, and these buying orders are oneBroadcom is implementing leveraged financing through an SPV structure, significantly increasing the credit and event risk exposure across the AI infrastructure chain. The proposed debt portfolio, aiming to raise up to $100 billion, includes subordinated debt and senior secured tranches, with Broadcom bearing part of the guarantee responsibility. If the massive debt expansion pushes up market long-term interest rate expectations, the AI sector's high valuation positions will face risk appetite contraction and repricing pressure. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the actual issuance scale and subscription multiples of the SPV's senior secured tranches experience significant shrinkage.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升50日线追着200日线跑，BTC这次的黄金交叉，是真牛回头还是诱多陷阱？ 2026年8月21日，比特币50日均线来到63976美元，200日均线停在69005美元，两者间距收窄，黄金交叉若确认，市场或将开启新一轮上涨周期。 涨了。真的涨了。过去一周BTC累计反弹超过12%，价格重新站上7.1万美元，8月21日凌晨更是摸到72342.9美元，单日涨幅5.64%。可别急着All in。 这条50日线，还在200日线下面趴着呢，所谓黄金交叉，八字还没一撇。 自2025年10月以来，BTC就一直被压在200日均线下方，那时候价格还在11万美元附近。十个月。被一条线压了整整十个月，现在刚翘头，就有人喊牛市回归。 【老手的碎碎念】 先泼盆冷水，黄金交叉这玩意儿，本质是滞后指标。它不是预言家，是记账员。价格先涨，50日线才追上来，等它真和200日线交叉那一天，早期的肉早被嗅觉灵敏的资金吃完了。你看到信号冲进去，吃到的可能是末段。 历史上BTC确实在2023年2月、2023年10月、2024年10月、2025年4月形成过黄金交叉，每次后面都接着上涨。听起来很美。但2020年2月那次黄金交叉后，BTCWhen Waymo kicked Nvidia off the car, the crypto circle finally understood what "computing power sovereignty" means. On August 20, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, officially announced the mass production of its self-developed ASIC chip, manufactured with TSMC's 5nm process, boasting computing power exceeding 1000 TOPS. It has been installed in the new generation Robotaxi, officially ending the sole reliance on third-party chips like Nvidia and AMD. 【Veteran's rambling】 On the surface, this news seems like a routine matter in the autonomous driving circle. But looking deeper, the signal is explosive. What does 1000 TOPS mean? This is comparable to Nvidia's latest generation autonomous driving system. But the real hard part is not the computing power number, it's the path Waymo chose—designing its own chips, designing its own sensors, running its own neural networks. Holding the lifeline in its own hands. Those doing autonomous driving have started making chips. Google, which does search, has long been developing its own TPU. Who's next? For Crypto players, the mapping logic of this matter is very clear. The first layer: computing power is power. Why does Waymo want to develop its own? Because AI computing power costs are spiraling out of control, and Google's entire group is pushing a self-developed chip strategy to control infrastructure expenses. When centralized giants are all pursuing computing power autonomy, the narrative value of decentralized computing power networks is quietly being re-evaluated. DePIN projects like Render Network and Akash Network embody the logic that "computing power should not be choked by a few cloud providers." In the first quarter of 2026, the firs$TRUMP SHORT 🔴
Entry: 1.658–1.668
SL: 1.680
TP1: 1.635
TP2: 1.620
TP3: 1.605
TRUMP remains below MA5/10/20 after a sharp rejection.
1.675 is the key level that would weaken this short idea.
#BTCBreaks72K #FOMC9To3Split #PopMartEarningsWatch $4 billion buyback ignited on September 9—is Bitcoin's $72,000 short squeeze just a rehearsal? On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would raise the liquidity-backed repurchase cap for long-term nominal Treasury bonds of 10-20 years and 20-30 years from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and lasting until November 4. Upon hearing this, the 30-year Treasury yield plunged from around 5.34% to 5.19%, Bitcoin surged from $64,100 to $72,300, with over $3.2 billion liquidated in 24 hours, including $3.001 billion in short liquidations. [Veteran's Rambling] First, pour cold water on the situation. This time the Treasury's buyback is not about the Fed printing money, nor is it QE. It is the Ministry of Finance using the money in its books to buy back and cancel those "old, untraded" old bonds, essentially a debt management operation of "selling short and buying long." In the $31.5 trillion U.S. Treasury market, the seven operations from September 9 to November 4 only generated $14 billion in increments—just a drop in the bucket. But the market never looks at volume, only on signals. What are the signals? It was the U.S. government that clearly told the world: the 5.34% rate for the 30-year term is a red line and long-term rates can no longer skyrocket. Once this red line is drawn, term premiums are compressed, the dollar weakens, and risk appetite returns—Bitcoin's biggest enemy has never been regulation, but a 5% risk-free return. When the "magnet for easy profits" of U.S. Treasuries weakens, funds start shifting toward risk assets. This was the single-day increase of 11.7% for Bitcoin and Ethereum for Ethereum on August 20$86.2 billion is just the ticket: Anthropic rushes for IPO—how many episodes has the crypto market's "AI gold rush" just begun? On August 21, 2026, Cailian Press reported that Anthropic expects its IPO size to at least match the record set by SpaceX. SpaceX initially raised $75 billion, including an over-allotment of $86.2 billion, and Anthropic is preparing to submit its listing documents as early as the end of this month. [Veteran's Rambling] This account needs to be examined separately. When SpaceX went public in June this year, it was valued at $1.77 trillion, raising $75 billion, and with an over-allotment of $86.2 billion. Anthropic's desire to "surpass" actually has two dimensions—valuation — it is very likely to win (market expects $2 trillion or even $3 trillion), but fundraising depends on the issuance ratio. So when the media calls it "the largest IPO in history," it's half truth, half narrative. But what does this mean for crypto players? Let me explain three aspects. First layer: The imaginative space overflowing with fluidity. Anthropic's listing is like a shot in the arm for global capital—artificial intelligence is currently the only proven track of "revenue surge." Anthropic's Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 14 times, with an annualized revenue operating rate surpassing $65 billion. This level of growth narrative will drive institutional allocation to AI-related assets, and some funds will inevitably spill over into the crypto market's artificial intelligenceLast night, when the Nasdaq fell 1% and Walmart crashed 9.2%, why did Bitcoin instead surge to 72,000? On August 21, 2026, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower: the Nasdaq fell 1%, the Dow fell 1.31%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.86%, all seven tech giants were in the green, and Walmart plunged 9.2% in a single day, marking its largest drop since May 2022. Yet on the same night, memory chips and optical communications bucked the trend and surged, with Bitcoin surging to the $72,000 mark and up more than 6% in the past 24 hours. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the superficial narrative of "US stocks fall, crypto rises." The real signal from this night was that capital was making extremely picky choices. Just open it up and you'll understand. Behind the Nasdaq's 1% drop was the 10-year Treasury yield rebounding over 5 basis points to 4.704%, and the 30-year yield climbing over 5 basis points to 5.248%—long-term interest rates are used to hold long-duration assets tight. Apple fell 1.75%, Microsoft fell 0.43%, Google dropped 1.02%. These companies, which rely on discounted future cash flows, were the first to be hit hard. Walmart's drop was even steeper by 9.2%, and same-store sales in the US rarely missed expectations, showing consumer concerns. But then something strange happened. SK Hynix rose over 4%, Micron rose 3.97%, SanDisk gained 2.02%; Applied Optoelectronics rose over 5%, and Lumentum gained 6.24%. While the seven giants are falling, AI hardware infrastructure is rising. The money hasn't left; the money is changing seats. crThe Nasdaq fell 1%, so why did Bitcoin dare to rise 4.40%? Veterans see something different. On August 21, 2026, the three major US stock indices closed lower: the Nasdaq down 1%, the Dow down 1.31%, the S&P 500 down 0.86%, and all seven tech giants were caught in the move. But on the same night, Bitcoin rose 4.40% to $72,386, Ethereum rose 3.06% to $2,321.65, and the storage and optical communications sectors bucked the trend strongly—SK Hynix rose over 4%, Micron Technology gained over 3%, and Lumentum gained over 6%. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the phrase "Nasdaq down 1%." The signals hidden on the market that night were far more dangerous than on the surface. Let's start with the culprit. The U.S. Treasury had just announced the day before that it would at least double the repurchase of 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasury bonds, hoping to suppress long-term yields. However, the good times didn't last: the 10-year yield rebounded more than 5 basis points to 4.704% in a single day, and the 30-year yield fell back to 5.248%. With long-term interest rates soaring, the longest-duration tech stocks were hit first—Apple fell 1.75%, Amazon dropped 2.16%, and Tesla dropped 1.71%. Not a single one of the Seven Giants survived. Walmart is even more ruthless. It fell 9.2%, marking the largest single-day drop since May 2022. This retail giant is the barometer of American consumption, with same-store sales rarely falling short of expectations, essentially telling the market that residents' wallets are empty. Walmart's crash dragged the Dow down by 703.84 points. It is truly strangeBTC broke through 72000, but there is a hidden risk that cannot be ignored
$BTC broke through $72000 in the early morning, hitting a new high in over three months. It rose nearly 4% in 24 hours. However, at the same time, the July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve showed — 9 votes in favor of keeping rates unchanged, 3 votes supporting a rate hike. Bulls are celebrating, hawks are lurking.
Bullish logic: triple drivers are still in effect
The U.S. Treasury expanded the scope of long-term Treasury repurchase operations to include 10- to 30-year maturities, effective September 9. Bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, benefiting BTC.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517 million on Wednesday, the strongest since May 4. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $285 million leading the charge. Over the past 60 days, whales have increased net holdings by about 43,000 BTC.
Bearish risk: the minutes did not mention rate cuts
The minutes showed 3 votes supporting a 25 basis point hike, and several participants believed that if inflation does not improve, further tightening would be necessary. Chair Powell proposed reducing the number of annual rate meetings from 8 to 6 and suggested updating the policy framework — including announcing rate decisions in advance.
Last week, initial jobless claims were 229,000, slightly above expectations, and continuing claims were 1.87 million, the highest since December 2024. Employment is cooling, inflation remains above 3%.
ETFs are buying, whales are buying, but the Fed has not eased. Be cautious chasing longs above 72000.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 As a top architectural designer, when I look at Pop Mart's financial report, it's like reviewing a freshly delivered foundation settlement observation record at a construction site early in the morning.
Stop looking at that shiny IP curtain wall; the foundation has already emitted ominous groans. The "Trendy Toy Tower" completed in the first half of the year shows a 23.8% growth on paper, but the "net profit load-bearing wall" that truly determines the building's lifespan only increased by 10.1%. This is a dangerous scissors gap—the higher the floors are stacked, the weaker the concrete grade becomes. The contractor explains this as a necessary investment during the expansion phase, but what I see is precisely a red alert in the structural system: while the "Main Building in Mainland China" topped out first at a rate of 47.3%, the "Overseas Podium Buildings" in Asia-Pacific and the Americas are contracting, at -9.7% and -16.5% respectively. This is not a simple style shift; it is an overall instability in the load-bearing system. The most tragic collapses in architectural history are often not due to height but due to a shifted center of gravity.
LABUBU, once the "core steel column," has seen its compressive strength drop by 7.5%, and new IPs like Twinkle Twinkle, despite nearly sixfold growth, are, in my eyes, just glass curtain walls attached to the facade—dazzling to look at but unable to bear any wind load or seismic force. True architects know that structures not tested through a full lifecycle and extreme conditions can only be considered "temporary reinforcements." You cannot so densely replace load-bearing components on a building that has not yet topped out. This is no longer a matter of "designing while building"; it is a challenge to the laws of physics. Those new IPs packaged as "second growth points" do not even meet the load-bearing standards of temporary fire escape stairs in my view.
Looking at the financial ratios: inventory turnover is slowing, meaning materials are piling up in warehouses, and funds are frozen in concrete. This is a sharp increase in energy consumption, a sign of project management losing control, a classic case of a "half-finished project." The capital market's old supervisor holding the XGOOGL ruler has long captured subtle torsional vibrations of the building with his dynamic tester—this building's foundation is undergoing plastic hinge transformation. When the independent foundation of the overseas market starts to lift, the settlement cracks of the entire building become irreparable, and those shiny marketing centers on the exterior walls have lost the logic to continue construction.
When multiple IP schedules seem lively, it's actually because no one can find the "main building." A building can have rich language, but if the load transfer path is unclear, it cannot even resist wind vibrations. When the main entrance column (LABUBU) begins to peel, and other columns have not passed the 28-day standard curing period, the building has already lost the premise for adding more floors. The construction crew is busy, the tower cranes are turning, and it looks prosperous, but the core secret of the site is: the blueprints can no longer be changed. This covert inspection by market funds sees insufficient mortar fullness, misaligned rebar joints, and loose formwork support systems.
I don't need to wait for the final completion acceptance report. Because the moment the first pile was driven, the verticality had already deviated beyond the allowed tolerance. All the subsequent fancy interior decoration and curtain walls only add overturning moments to this tilt.
The signature line on the inspector's report should only have two words: Stop Work. #PopMartEarningsWatch BTC suddenly surged back to $70,000, did Trump give it another push?
This wave of Bitcoin suddenly rushing from over $60,000 all the way back to $70,000 is definitely not just a simple technical rebound.
On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act.
The signal is very clear: the U.S. is not trying to drive crypto out, but is rushing to establish a regulatory framework.
But I think the real ignition was the liquidity expectation.
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, Treasury yields fell, and the market's liquidity expectations suddenly eased. At the same time, BTC broke through a key level, shorts began to liquidate continuously, and ETF funds flowed back in.
Policy expectations + improved liquidity + short squeeze + ETF funds, a few sparks collided, making it hard for BTC not to rally.
But here I still want to remind you:
$70,000 is not the end, nor is it a reason to blindly chase the rally.
What really matters is whether BTC can hold above $70,000 and turn this level from resistance into support.
If it can hold, the story ahead may just be beginning.
If it can't hold, this might just be a beautiful "bull trap."
Personally, I’m more focused on the trading volume and capital flow in the next few days.
Breaking through is not hard; holding the ground is the real skill.The U.S. pressure on Iran's economy is entering the execution prelude, with China directly named. Behind the threat of secondary tariff sanctions is Trump's desire to coerce China into helping mediate with Iran.
According to Bassett's statement, the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran will have specific measures announced next Monday. This is clearly combined with a maritime blockade to further economically isolate Iran, aiming to pressure the Iranian regime from within.
On the other hand, Bassett directly named China, noting that half of China's energy comes from the Gulf, and China also purchases a large amount of maritime oil from Iran.
When asked whether the U.S. would target China due to China-Iran trade relations, Bassett did not deny it, which effectively increases the possibility of secondary trade sanctions on Iranian oil.
Of course, with less than a month before the Chinese leader's visit to the U.S., I don't quite believe the U.S. will directly impose secondary sanctions on Chinese Iranian oil. Bassett's attitude makes me feel more that he wants to coerce China into helping the U.S. mediate the U.S.-Iran issue. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 🚨加密监管预期重新升温后，市场并没有立刻全面崩盘，但资金已经开始主动避险。 最明显的变化是，资金不再盲目炒作所有小盘币，而是重新回到BTC、ETH、SOL等流动性更强的主流资产。 🔍监管风险不是均匀影响所有币种。 BTC作为市值最大、流动性最好的加密资产，抗风险能力相对更强。真正承压的是小盘币、MEME土狗、平台类币种，以及那些靠热度和故事支撑的项目。这类币种一旦资金撤离，流动性会快速变差，反弹也会越来越弱。 📉从交易额结构看，主流币成交额放大，说明市场还在反弹，但资金风格已经改变。 过去是“涨得最猛的最受欢迎”，现在是“能活着出来的最重要”。这种风险偏好切换如果延续，后面会出现明显两极分化：主流币抗跌，弱势山寨继续阴跌。 💣爆仓风险主要集中在高杠杆追高小盘币的用户。 很多人只看到短期涨幅，却没有注意到这些币种一旦热度退潮，回撤幅度可以非常深。尤其是短期涨幅超过30%、40%的品种，一旦资金获利了结，很容易从哪里涨起来跌回哪里。 个人判断分析：监管不是立刻砸盘，但会加速市场分层。 后面不是所有币种都会涨，资金会更偏向主流、流动性好、叙事清晰的品种。弱势山寨即使反ETH has shifted from "following the rise" to "actively strengthening," but around $2360 it has entered a true divergence zone.
ETH's movement in the past two days has been noticeably more aggressive than in the previous phase.
From the chart, the price quickly surged from around $1905 to $2361, with almost no deep pullbacks in between. What is truly noteworthy is not just how much it has risen, but that after breaking through $2200, ETH did not immediately fall back but continued to oscillate at a high level. This indicates that this rally is not just a passive catch-up after BTC's rise.
On the macro level, market risk appetite is improving. The U.S. Treasury's expansion of bond repurchase operations has driven down long-term yields, while expectations for increased crypto regulation have heated up, leading to a clear revaluation of risk assets in both BTC and ETH. In the latest market, ETH's single-day gain once exceeded 2%, reaching the highest level since May. (MarketWatch)
However, ETH has a variable different from BTC: capital is beginning to reassess ETH's relative value.
In July, the U.S. spot ETH ETF saw net inflows of about $365 million, significantly better than the previous continuous outflows, and the ETH/BTC ratio also showed recovery during the same period. In other words, the market had been trading on "BTC outperforming ETH," but now some capital is starting to reposition for ETH's relative returns. (Blockport)
Looking at the 15-minute structure.
The current price is about $2318, with the previous high at $2361 forming a very clear short-term resistance. The Bollinger middle band is near $2328, and MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all compressed in the $2320–$2330 range, indicating that short-term long and short costs are rapidly converging.
The KDJ indicator has also fallen from a high level to the mid-low area.
This implies a very important change:
Previously, the market was trading the "rise," but now it is trading "whether the rise can be confirmed."
I will focus on two key levels going forward.
If ETH can firmly hold between $2340–$2360 with volume expanding simultaneously, this rally could evolve from a rapid recovery into a trend breakout, and the market would start trading the space above $2400 again.
But if $2360 cannot be broken for a sustained period and the price falls back below $2300, this could easily become a high-level chip exchange, with the short term possibly seeking support near $2250 or even $2200.
Therefore, I do not currently consider ETH weak.
On the contrary, it has formed a very clear strong structure.
However, after rising from $1900 to $2360, the trading logic can no longer remain at "looking for a rebound at a low level" but should shift to another question:
Is this rally merely correcting a previous severe undervaluation, or has it already prematurely priced in the liquidity expectations for the next phase?
These two answers lead to completely different prospects for ETH's future space.
What I want to see more is: if BTC holds around $73,000, can ETH break through $2360 on its own?
If it can, that would be a true sign of ETH strength.
:::$ETH What really needs to be observed in this BTC rally is not how much it has risen, but who will take over after $73,000
BTC rapidly surged from around $64,000 in the past two days, reaching a high of $73,070. Looking only at the 15-minute level, this is a very strong trending market, but the market has now moved from the "breakout phase" into the more critical "high-level confirmation phase."
The driving force behind this rally is actually more than one factor.
On one hand, the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, improving liquidity expectations and directly boosting the valuation of highly elastic assets like BTC; on the other hand, renewed expectations of U.S. crypto regulation have further improved market risk appetite. More importantly, this rally was accompanied by large-scale short covering, with BTC showing a typical short squeeze acceleration after breaking through $70,000. (Reuters)
But I believe what really deserves attention is this: the short squeeze is responsible for pushing the price up, but spot funds determine whether the price can stay here.
Positive signals have already appeared on the funding side. The U.S. spot BTC ETF has recently returned to a clear net inflow, with a single-day net inflow of about $517 million on August 19, one of the strongest capital inflows in months. (TradingView)
Back to the chart.
After BTC surged to $73,070, there was no immediate sharp pullback; instead, it consolidated sideways at a high level between $72,000 and $73,000. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are still clustered around $72,600, indicating that short-term costs are rising rapidly; meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are starting to contract, and the KDJ has returned to a neutral zone, meaning the previous one-sided acceleration has temporarily ended.
So I would not simply define this as a "position to continue chasing longs."
The area around $73,000 has become the first real resistance that needs to be tested.
If the price can hold above $73,000 with volume and ETF funds continue to support, then the nature of this rally may gradually shift from "liquidity improvement + short squeeze" to a "trend recovery driven by spot funds," at which point the upside space can reopen.
Conversely, if $73,000 cannot be broken for a long time and the price falls back below $72,000 or even $71,500, caution is warranted for profit-taking after the rapid short squeeze.
I prefer to wait for the market to answer one question:
After shorts have been forced to buy back, is there still real capital willing to continue buying near $73,000?
This is the core variable that will determine BTC's next phase direction.
What do you think? Will $73,000 break directly this time, or will it first pull back to confirm $70,000–$71,000 before moving on to the second leg?
:::$BTC Last night's one-sided surge left many people completely stunned😮 Many stayed up late watching the market but still couldn't figure out why there was a sudden explosive rally. I'll briefly break down the logic behind it for your reference.
First, on the sentiment side: the market had been suppressed for too long, consolidating sideways for many days. Capital was like a drought-stricken fishpond, only missing a rainstorm🌧️ Once there was any stir, the pent-up bullish sentiment was released all at once, creating a short-term one-sided rally.
The more critical catalyst came from the macro side: last night, the U.S. Treasury announced a plan to repurchase government bonds. This action directly reduced the amount of government bonds circulating in the market. With supply down, bond prices naturally rose, and rising bond prices mean yields fall📉 When yields drop, the attractiveness of holding U.S. Treasuries diminishes, prompting large amounts of capital to seek new outlets, turning to safe-haven or inflation-hedge assets like gold and Bitcoin, directly driving BTC's strong rally📈
Of course, this is just my personal judgment based on market structure. Macro policies often impact the crypto market on multiple levels; short-term sentiment and long-term trends may not always align. Everyone should rationally consider their own positions and risk tolerance. What do you think about the logic behind this surge? Feel free to discuss in the comments👇
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously and bear your own risks. $BTC $ETH $SNDKViewing this rally from a volatility perspective: Deribit's DVOL is still stuck around 39 and hasn't surged alongside the spot price. In other words, the options market is pricing this upward move as a "short pulse" rather than a "trend initiation"—if it were a trend-level move, implied volatility would have moved first. Looking at the MaxPain distribution, the magnet points for the next two to three days are all several thousand dollars below the current price. Prices can be emotional, but open option positions are not. Let the positions speak. $ETHShift your focus from the order book to the calendar: the real variables aren't tonight's spike, but Jackson Hole from 8/27–29, and Wash's debut on 8/28. Coupled with WTI returning to 86, as oil prices rise, the inflation narrative resurfaces, and the market is repricing whether "one more hike" is coming. Before this point, the extremely overbought rally feels more like borrowing patience in advance. Until the macro situation settles, high-leverage longs are racing against time. Data won't play along with you. $BTC Broadcom plans to arrange over $60 billion in debt financing for a single AI project, with a structure where subordinated debt accounts for more than half, which will reprice the valuation clearing range of $AVGO. The core conflict lies in the clash between massive leverage expansion and risk appetite on the equity side.
The market currently focuses on the credit spread trends between subordinated debt and senior secured debt. In the over $60 billion financing plan, the arrangement of about $30 billion in subordinated debt raises the overall capital structure's debt repayment risk. The driving factors in order are: subordinated debt underwriting pricing, senior debt guarantee ratio, and the pace of long position risk-off selling before earnings.
Event risk is directly transmitted to risk appetite through interest rate sensitivity. If the credit premium on nearly $30 billion of subordinated debt exceeds expectations, it will force long-term funds to reduce long positions in the secondary stock market to avoid the interest burden pressure caused by balance sheet expansion.
The upside scenario is based on the assumption that senior secured debt receives high rating endorsement and the spread narrows. If the guarantee terms reduce the default risk of senior debt, making the financing cost of over $60 billion lower than market consensus, it will stimulate arbitrage funds to re-enter and buy long stock positions. The failure signal of this scenario is a surge in subordinated debt issuance rates causing total financing costs to exceed limits.
The downside scenario is based on the credit market overpricing the risk of subordinated debt. When about $30 billion of subordinated debt faces underwriting resistance or the spread widens significantly, the equity market will preemptively reprice $AVGO by eroding profits through interest expenses, triggering a leverage liquidation effect and indiscriminate position withdrawals. The failure signal of this scenario is full coverage of guarantee terms and oversubscription of subordinated debt.
The trading desk's judgment fails if the final financing scale or structure undergoes substantial changes. If the subordinated debt scale is significantly reduced to well below $30 billion, the debt risk transmission logic will be directly lifted, and the market will return to the traditional tech stock cash flow valuation logic.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus on changes in the fixed spread between subordinated debt and senior secured debt, as well as the skew of the $AVGO options volatility surface after the debt terms are announced.
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注 #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧Notable divergence: On Thursday, US stocks were risk-off, with the Dow down -1.31%, the Nasdaq down -1%, led by tech declines, and $Moderna dropping 23.5% in one day. Traditional risk assets are contracting, but the crypto market is charging ahead alone, with $BTC up +6% in 24h. Historically, this kind of "stocks down, crypto up" divergence rarely sustains long-term; either stocks stabilize, or crypto falls back. When overall risk appetite cools, liquidity is usually first pulled from the most speculative side. Watch positions carefully; don't mistake an isolated rally for immunity. $BTCThe crypto market suddenly "fully revived" these past two days. Many people thought it was just Trump speaking out or the SEC issuing new regulations, but that was only the surface. The real trigger was a long-planned "big move" by the U.S. Treasury.
Previously, Bitcoin had been stuck around $60,000 for a whole month and a half, with funds completely locked up. Why? Because the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond soared to a 19-year high (5.33%). Think about it: if you can earn a guaranteed 5%+ just by buying Treasuries, who would want to touch the high-risk Bitcoin?
Until August 19, when the U.S. Treasury stepped in and doubled the repurchase scale of 10- to 30-year Treasuries, with each operation at least $4 billion.
Even more interesting is a "closed-loop" of funds: the government’s repurchase of long-term bonds is actually financed by issuing short-term Treasuries. And the main buyers of these short-term Treasuries are precisely the crypto companies issuing USD stablecoins (legally required to buy short-term U.S. Treasuries). This creates a perfect cycle: funds buy short-term bonds → Treasury uses the money to repurchase long-term bonds to suppress interest rates → funds flow back into Bitcoin → stablecoin supply expands → continue buying short-term bonds.
So why has the price surged so sharply these past two days? Because the market was extremely pessimistic before, with retail investors heavily shorting. Once the policy turned positive, shorts were forced to cover, directly triggering an epic "short squeeze". #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 标题：站上7万美元，不代表牛市已经正式吹响号角。 BTC 这一波上涨确实很猛，但我更愿意把它理解成一次消息催化 + 空头回补 + 情绪修复带来的快速反弹，而不是已经确认的新一轮全面牛市。 📌 为什么突然拉起来？ 近期美国流动性预期出现改善，同时美国监管层继续推进数字资产监管框架，白宫与加密行业的政策互动也在增加，市场对未来监管环境进一步放松的预期升温。 与此同时，现货 BTC ETF 近期出现约 4.8亿美元的单日净流入，创下数月以来较强水平；随着 BTC 突破关键位置，大量空头仓位被迫止损，市场短时间内出现超过 25亿美元规模的清算。 所以这波上涨的逻辑并不复杂： 利好消息 → 情绪升温 → BTC突破 → 空头止损 → 被动买盘继续推高价格。 问题是： 这些资金究竟是长期增量资金，还是短线被迫回补？ 目前还需要继续观察。 市场散户多空比也从此前约 2.0 降至 1.4附近，说明部分多头已经开始降低仓位。 更值得警惕的是，资金费率已经处于相对高位。类似的极端状态过去也曾出现过——当杠杆资金过度拥挤时，即使趋势依旧向上，也很容易出现突然的大幅洗盘。 历史不会简单重复，但市场的节奏有时Let's talk about an easily overlooked signal: in this rally, the funding rate for $BTC has quietly flipped positive from neutral, and $ETH has even hit around 0.01%. On the surface, it looks like a bull party, but from another perspective—the positive funding rate means that now the shorts are collecting money instead of paying. After a short squeeze clears out the underwater shorts, those left are the ones willing to pay the funding fee to hold long positions at high levels. It's clear who is subsidizing whom. Meanwhile, the volume ratio never picks up, indicating this is a pulse-style squeeze, not an influx of new capital entering the market. The data won't play tricks on you. $BTC$ANIME This spot for ANIME is truly a paradise for manipulative whales, repeatedly stabbing around 0.0026, volume hasn't increased but turnover is extremely high, a typical scenario of mutual insults. Pure capital speculation with no fundamental support, it's normal that retail investors can't hold on, they wash out and give up quickly. My view is don't rush to chase, wait for volume to pick up and choose a direction, either break through and follow the trend, or break down and exit. Do you think this move is a setup or a bull trap? Drop the tokens you're watching in the comments. 👇👇👇Recently, I noticed another direction in the Core ecosystem worth paying attention to: Fiamma's BitVM2 bridge now supports Core.
I think ordinary people might not easily feel the impact of this, but it addresses the issue of how BTC and other chains can interoperate with greater trust.
I'm increasingly convinced that if Core really wants to build a large BTCFi in the future, just having a staking function won't be enough. How BTC comes in, how it is used afterward, and how assets flow—these infrastructures all need to be gradually developed.
So now, I'm actually less concerned about how many points CORE gains today.
What I really want to see is whether, after these infrastructures are all completed one by one, a truly usable BTCFi ecosystem can finally be formed. $CORE Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, with over $3.3 billion liquidated across the network
On August 20, Bitcoin surged 11% to surpass $72,000, reaching a nearly three-month high. Ethereum rose over 19%, and SOL increased more than 13%.
According to CoinGlass data, 188,000 people worldwide were liquidated within 24 hours, totaling $3.34 billion, with short positions accounting for over $3 billion, marking the largest short liquidation wave since 2021.
Drivers of the rally: First, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases will double, causing U.S. bond yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, improving liquidity expectations. Second, the SEC proposed new crypto asset regulations allowing compliant projects to issue no more than $75 million annually. Third, Trump held a crypto industry summit at the White House, urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act.
The core trigger for this surge comes from crowded short positions accumulated during six months of consolidation—BTC has long oscillated around 60,000, with the derivatives market accumulating significant leveraged shorts. The price breaking through a key liquidation dense zone created a short squeeze positive feedback loop.
Looking ahead, the $72,000-$75,000 range is a short-term key resistance zone; holding above it could lead to further gains, while a pullback should watch for support around $68,000-$69,000.
Brothers, did you get on board this wave? Let's discuss in the comments
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 The total supply of OKB has been fixed at 21 million tokens, and it is also the only native Gas token of the X Layer.
Scarcity is an advantage, but "limited quantity" does not necessarily mean a price increase. What truly determines long-term value is whether the X Layer has users, transactions, and real Gas demand.#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
The just-released July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve are quite straightforward: basically no one in the entire document mentioned "rate cuts." The final vote was 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, with 3 members directly calling for a rate hike. The gist of the minutes is that if inflation doesn't come down, rate hikes may be necessary later. Previously, everyone was hoping for rate cuts daily; now the main discussion has shifted to "whether to raise rates."
The short-term implication of these minutes for the crypto market is that they reinforce the pricing basis that "a high interest rate environment may persist longer." Major assets like Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum #$ETH are highly sensitive to real interest rates and USD liquidity. The minutes clearly lack any discussion of rate cuts while keeping the option to hike rates, which will weaken the market's expectations for easing within the year. However, it is important to distinguish that the minutes reflect information from a meeting three weeks ago; since then, some employment and inflation data have shown signs of weakening, and the probability of a September hike has somewhat declined. What truly affects recent trends is not this lagging document itself but whether subsequent policy communication and data can resonate.
For now, put aside the fantasy that "rate cuts are coming soon," at least until Jackson Hole hears what Wash has to say; meanwhile, watch inflation and employment data before the September meeting—if the data softens, the market will reignite rate cut expectations; if the data is strong, high rates will continue to weigh; also, observe whether funds are flowing into or out of the crypto space.市场确实明显回暖了。 $BTC 再次站上 7.1万美元，$ETH 也出现强势拉升，整个加密市场正在经历一轮明显的风险偏好修复。 但有一个数据，我认为现在不能忽略： 📊 CMC Altcoin Season Index 目前大约只有 41/100，距离真正的「Altcoin Season」仍有明显差距，整体依旧更偏向 Bitcoin Season。 这意味着什么？ 很多交易者看到 BTC 突破、ETH 跟涨，再看到部分山寨币单日上涨 8%—15%，就开始喊「山寨季回来了」。 我觉得还太早。 这轮上涨背后除了 BTC 突破关键价格区间带来的技术性买盘，也受到近期美国监管环境改善预期、机构资金回流以及现货 ETF 资金情绪回暖等因素推动。 但真正的山寨季，不能只看几个币突然暴涨。 我更关注的是： 🔹 BTC 的涨势能否稳定 🔹 ETH/BTC 能否持续走强 🔹 ETF资金是否继续净流入 🔹 山寨币市场的成交量和资金广度是否扩大 🔹 Altcoin Season Index 能否持续向 60以上推进 如果资金依旧集中在 BTC 和 ETH，其他山寨币只是轮流脉冲，那更像是流动性轮动8.21 Friday Latest Gold Analysis
From a technical perspective, after gold filled the 4450 gap during the European session yesterday and started an upward channel, the highest price has reached 4540. Currently, the 4500 support has stabilized, and the small range is in a consolidation phase. The key focus is the strength of the 4500 support level. As long as the 4500 level is not effectively broken downward, after a slight pullback, it is highly likely to continue a strong upward trend. The upward channel is now fully open, with the next resistance near 4550. In terms of trading, operate around the support with low buy positions!
Suggestion:
Buy around 4500-4490, target near 4550-4580
$XAU 特朗普公开表示美国“已经结束对加密货币的战争”，并敦促国会尽快通过《CLARITY法案》。这一表态迅速点燃市场情绪，比特币短线强势突破70,000美元关口，空头遭到大规模挤压，进一步放大了上涨动能。🔥 这轮行情的核心催化，显然不只是价格本身，而是政策层面的实质性转向。特朗普明确将加密监管松绑作为施政重点，并直接点名《CLARITY法案》，意味着行业正从“被围剿”走向“被立法接纳”的关键节点。 更值得关注的是时间表：该法案的关键投票已定于9月15日举行。若法案能在国会获得足够支持，9月很可能成为加密市场的重要分水岭，合规框架的落地将吸引更多机构资金入场，并为后续ETF、银行托管等产品铺平道路。 但市场从来不会只涨不跌。眼下最需要警惕的，是“利好出尽”的sell-the-news风险。法案投票前，预期已经部分计入价格；若最终结果不及预期，或细节条款被大幅削弱，短期回调压力不容忽视。此外，70,000美元上方存在密集套牢盘，突破后的持续性仍需量能验证。 接下来几天，市场将围绕两个核心变量博弈：一是特朗普行政层面对法案的推动力度，二是国会内部对加密监管具体条款的争议。任何一条消息都可能引发剧BlockBeats 消息，8月21日，CME美联储观察数据出现关键变化！ 9月维持利率不变概率回落至65.4%，加息25个基点概率飙升至34.6%。 📊对比前一日8.20数据： 昨日维持不变概率67.3%，加息概率仅32.7%。 短短一天之内，加息预期上行1.9个百分点，市场紧缩押注再度升温！ 不要小看这1.9%的变动！ 当前大盘刚刚走出一波逼空上涨，多头情绪火热，一旦加息预期继续走高，美债收益率随时再度冲高，流动性收紧预期会直接冲击风险资产。 短期盘面波动风险急剧放大，暴涨之后暗藏跳水隐患。 接下来重中之重：杰克逊霍尔讲话、通胀与就业数据，每一项都可能引爆新一轮剧烈行情。 $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Anthropic plans to publicly rush a $75 billion financing round anchored at a $2 trillion valuation, but the nearly $42 billion loss in 2025 tied to massive computing power forms the core contradiction of the valuation inversion.
The $11.5 billion revenue in Q2 proves the ability to grow income, but the nearly $42 billion net loss in 2025 directly limits the pace of balance sheet repair. The primary driver of valuation is rigid computing power expenditure, followed by enterprise-level monetization speed, and lastly long-term revenue expectations.
This event risk is transmitting from the primary market to risk appetite in the secondary market. Nvidia guarantees $105 billion for data centers, and pension funds take on construction bonds, leading to highly overlapping positions in the computing power industry chain. If the public market cannot absorb the $75 billion financing amount, risk aversion sentiment will quickly spread to the entire AI sector.
Management demands super voting rights with 2% equity, while locking in cash outflows through multi-billion-dollar computing power contracts with SpaceX over three years. If the underlying computing power cost reduction fails to exceed expectations, the profitable quarters mentioned by the CFO will be hard to repeat, and DeepSeek’s price competition continues to suppress overall monetization gross margin.
The upside scenario is based on a significant drop in computing power costs and accelerated enterprise-level monetization exceeding expectations. If the path to achieving the $190 billion to $200 billion revenue forecast by 2028 is clear, and computing power spending growth is lower than revenue growth, the $2 trillion valuation will gain fundamental support; the failure signal for this scenario is a continuous increase in the proportion of computing power contract expenditures.
The downside scenario focuses on massive losses triggering risk aversion suppression in the secondary market. If the $75 billion financing squeezes public market liquidity and risks such as model bypassing safety protections trigger regulatory intervention, institutional positions will see concentrated exits; the failure signal for this scenario is stronger-than-expected secondary market absorption and rapid chip digestion.
The failure condition judgment lies in computing power expenditure rigidity breaking the upper limit or price wars causing long-term gross margin collapse, making the valuation model unable to discount based on long-term revenue.
The core observation variables for the next 7 days are the computing power liability details in the public offering application documents and the position adjustment trends in the secondary market technology sector.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落🔥$OPENAI just released a performance report that made the market nervous.
Q2 revenue was $6.7 billion, up 18% from $5.7 billion in Q1. Sounds decent, right? But the problem is—the quarter-over-quarter growth rate was cut in half, down from 35.7% in Q1. Even more painful, operating losses increased from $9.3 billion to $12.3 billion. Slower earnings growth, faster losses.
The most awkward part is that Anthropic, long seen as the "follower," hit $11.5 billion in revenue for the same period, surging over 140% quarter-over-quarter. This is the first time in Anthropic's history that its single-quarter revenue surpassed OpenAI's.
Two months ago, OpenAI was racing toward an $852 billion valuation, while Amazon's $50 billion just came through. Now investors are starting to panic—no IPO in sight, and losses are growing faster than money printing.
Revenue growth without profit is tolerable, but slowing revenue growth combined with accelerating losses makes the market much less forgiving. Once OpenAI's valuation anchor loosens, the entire crypto AI sector will have to be repriced.
When the "first AI stock" starts to be questioned by investors, the story gets tough to tell. 👇
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 METAPLANET IS TAKING A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO WALL STREET
Metaplanet isn’t selling Bitcoin to expand.
It’s using $BTC as strategic capital.
The company is contributing 2,100 BTC (~$132M) plus $2.5M cash to Nasdaq-listed Super League Enterprise, taking a 95.7% stake and rebranding it as Superplanet ($SUPA), a U.S. based Bitcoin treasury platform.
The interesting part?
That 2,100 BTC represents less than 5% of Metaplanet’s 43,000 BTC holdings, while the Bitcoin remains within the broader group.
The strategy appears to be bigger than the acquisition itself:
Use BTC → gain access to a U.S. public-market vehicle → create another channel for dollar capital → keep the core BTC treasury intact.
After the announcement, Super League shares surged 127%, while Metaplanet locked its shares for five years.
Whether this becomes a blueprint for other Bitcoin treasury companies remains to be seen.
But the idea is fascinating:
What if Bitcoin becomes not just a treasury asset, but an entry ticket to global capital markets?
BTC funded M&A could become a much bigger narrative from here. 👀📉 The U.S. Treasury takes emergency action, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields fall in response
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double the scale of long-term bond repurchases — raising the single operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, covering 10-20 year and 20-30 year bonds, effective September 9.
The day before, the 30-year Treasury yield had just hit a 19-year high of 5.33%. Once the news broke, long-term yields quickly fell, dropping nearly 10 basis points in a single day, with the 10-year yield also falling over 6 basis points, and the dollar index experiencing its largest single-day drop in three months.
The market widely interpreted this as an "emergency market rescue" signal. But the effect may be only temporary — less than 24 hours after the repurchase announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield rebounded to 5.26%. Institutions like Goldman Sachs pointed out that fiscal issues are the root cause, and term premiums may persist long-term.
For the crypto space, the direction of long-term bonds remains critical. If yields break above 5.3% again, valuation pressure on risk assets will continue. This move feels more like a short-term appeasement rather than a structural reversal.👇
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 $BTC $ETH Just now, the CFTC spoke more directly: if Congress doesn't act, regulators might take the lead themselves.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly stated in Washington today:
If the CLARITY Act continues to stall in Congress, the CFTC will use its existing authority to start building a regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto asset market.
If the bill ultimately can't move forward, he will ask staff to quickly propose new industry rules.
This statement is much more concrete than "the U.S. supports Crypto."
The market has been waiting:
When will Congress pass crypto regulatory legislation?
Now another path has emerged:
Congress is too slow, so the SEC and CFTC will use their powers to pave the way first.
The signals over the past couple of days have formed a clear line:
The SEC first proposed new token financing rules;
Yesterday, Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and even directly named Hyperliquid;
Today, the CFTC chairman said if the bill is stuck, regulators are ready to act first.
What’s truly worth trading on isn’t just a speech.
It’s that U.S. regulatory logic is shifting from:
"Who exactly regulates Crypto?"
to:
"How to keep these markets legally in the U.S.?"
For BTC and ETH, this is the logic behind the entire industry’s risk discount decreasing.
For perpetual contract platforms like HYPE, sensitivity might be even higher—because the CFTC specifically oversees derivatives markets.
But it’s still too early to say "HYPE has been approved to enter the U.S."
The real next confirmation will be whether the CFTC formally proposes new rules targeting crypto spot, perpetual contracts, and other markets.
If rules start to be implemented, this round of regulatory momentum could move from "talk" into the second phase.🔥The July Federal Reserve meeting minutes are out. On the surface, the vote was 9:3 to keep interest rates unchanged, but a closer look reveals intense internal disagreements.
The dissenting votes came from Cleveland Fed's Hamarak, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan, all insisting on a 25 basis point rate hike. Even more striking, Kansas City Fed's Schmidt and St. Louis Fed's Mouselim, who did not have voting rights at the time, later stated that they would have supported a rate hike if they had voting power. The actual number of officials wanting to raise rates far exceeds the voting outcome.
The minutes also contain even more hawkish signals—"many" officials believe that if inflation does not decline, future policy tightening will be necessary. According to the Fed's usual phrasing, "many" approaches half of the 19 decision-makers. Their assessment of the inflation outlook was summed up in four words—"highly uncertain," with the escalation of the Iran conflict further clouding the inflation outlook.
However, the market is no longer buying it. Core CPI inflation in July has already dropped to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, coupled with a negative nonfarm payroll change of 23,000. Citigroup believes this minutes report is unlikely to change the market's already lowered expectations for rate hikes. On the day the minutes were released, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher.
Wash also proposed a bold idea—to reduce the Fed's eight annual meetings to six, giving policymakers more time to study strategic issues. However, the schedule will not be adjusted this year.
The minutes reveal division, but the data is making decisions for the market. This tug-of-war will not stop before September.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 For the second time in a day, BTC shows a Strong signal of a potential high on the 2-hour TF. You don't see this every day, even in a bull market. At the same time, the price has hit the liquidity zone of $72,576-$73,118 on this TF. Usually, the combination of a Strong signal and a liquidity zone is a path to a correction/reversal. And the older the TF with the tags, the higher the probability of execution. At the same time, there are two Strong signal potential highs on the 4-hour TF (and among the TOP-200 crypto assets, 43 assets have such tags, which is a lot), plus from the pastThe reduction in AI computing power hardware costs and the commercialization implementation are driving a marginal rebound in market risk appetite, easing the valuation correction pressure on technology assets. Alibaba Cloud's AI product annualized revenue has exceeded ¥49.5 billion, and the commercial use of the Zhenwu M890 chip has shortened the computing power asset cost recovery cycle to about three years, with EBITDA profit margin rising to 12%. The accelerated mass delivery of chips is converting capital expenditures into actual cash flow, attracting long positions to concentrate on leaders in the computing power industry chain. Going forward, closely monitor the external customer volume growth of the Zhenwu M890 and changes in computing power market pricing power; if the AI division's profit margin falls below 10% in the second half of the fiscal year, this logic will fail.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升An interesting development is happening: SK Hynix has just announced a $29 billion share buyback program, instead of using that money to expand production capacity or increase dividends from the current extremely low 0.18%. 📉 This move says a lot about how the management views the future. When a leading global semiconductor company – which is benefiting greatly from the AI wave – chooses to buy back shares rather than reinvest in production, it is often a sign that they believe the current gross profit margins are unlikely to be sustainable $XRP
This wave of $BTC and $ETH rallying has driven the entire crypto market up, with $XRP standing out particularly.
From the open interest data of Ripple's native contracts, an interesting phenomenon can be observed: while the total open interest measured by the number of coins began to decline, the price of XRP started to rise, surging to around $1.25; meanwhile, the total open interest measured in USD continued to increase.
When XRP reached around $1.25, the USD-denominated open interest saw a sharp surge, pushing the price further up to $1.34, and the open interest measured by coin quantity also slightly increased simultaneously. This is most likely due to lagging momentum chasing the rally entering the market.
Afterwards, both price and open interest entered a correction phase in sync. However, a bullish signal in this round is that the total spot trading volume measured by coin quantity began to recover. This phenomenon indicates that the market is undergoing short covering, position liquidation, or spot buying entry, which is a very positive signal for the continuation and evolution into a medium- to long-term trend. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 The crypto market, which had been quiet for many days, suddenly experienced a "bull run" today, with mainstream coins collectively surging sharply. Bitcoin reclaimed the $69,000 level, Ethereum's single-day gain approached 20%, and Hyperliquid soared over 22%. Accompanying the rapid price surge was a large-scale liquidation of short positions.
Mainstream coins all rose across the board
Bitcoin: According to Coingecko data, it is currently priced at $69,165, with a 24-hour increase of 7.4%. The 24-hour price range was $64,123.86–$69,892.23, with a total market cap of $1.393 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $41.587 billion. After maintaining a narrow range in the morning, the price started a rapid rally during the European trading session.
Bitcoin price trend, source: Coingecko
Ethereum: Currently at $2,269.04, with a 24-hour surge of 18.6%, a price range of $1,905.44–$2,318.66, and a market cap of $274.047 billion. Ethereum's recent gains have clearly outpaced Bitcoin, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has also strengthened, indicating accelerated capital inflow back into the Ethereum ecosystem.
Ethereum price trend, source: Coingecko
BNB: Currently at $631.92, up 4.9% in 24 hours, a relatively moderate increase among mainstream large caps, with a price range of $600.92–$635.85.
Solana: Currently at $85.65, up 11.2% in 24 hours, with a price range of $76.59–$86.96 and a market cap of $49.952 billion. Charts show the price accelerating past previous highs.
Hyperliquid (HYPE): The most aggressive gain this round, currently at $71.41, up 22.2% in 24 hours, with a price range of $58.04–$72.28.
Analysis of causes: Macro positive triggers and leverage structure amplifying gains
Based on recent market dynamics and derivatives data, this rally is not driven by a single factor but is the result of multiple overlapping factors: macro liquidity benefits, warming regulatory signals, and concentrated clearing of leveraged short positions.
Cause 1: The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly "injects liquidity," lowering long-term interest rates and boosting risk appetite. On August 19 local time, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, increasing from $2 billion to over $4 billion per operation, covering the period from September 9 to November 4, mainly targeting 10- to 30-year Treasuries. This move was seen as a direct response to the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007 (peaking at 5.34%). After the announcement, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields dropped sharply, U.S. stock futures rose, and the overall improvement in risk appetite provided tailwinds for the crypto market. The Treasury's operation was interpreted by the market as a disguised liquidity injection, coinciding closely with the crypto market's rally.
Cause 2: The White House crypto summit combined with SEC regulatory easing shifts policy sentiment positively. On the same day, former President Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, and heads of the SEC and CFTC at the White House, reiterating the push for the "CLARITY Act" to pass the Senate quickly to provide a clearer regulatory framework for the industry. The day before the summit, the SEC officially proposed a new draft regulation called "Regulation Crypto Assets," aiming to provide crypto projects with an annual financing exemption channel of up to $75 million. The regulatory agencies and the White House released friendly signals intensively in the same week, alleviating previous market concerns about policy uncertainty and supporting capital inflows back into crypto assets.
Trump meeting industry leaders, source: ABCNews
Cause 3: The outflow trend of Bitcoin spot ETF funds has reversed, with whales buying the dip. Previously, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced consecutive days of net outflows, but this rebound is accompanied by signs of warming capital flows. Major products like BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC have recorded net subscriptions again, indicating institutional capital replenishment. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that large addresses began accumulating again after about 60 days of continuous selling, providing spot-side support for price stabilization and creating conditions for subsequent leveraged short squeezes.
Cause 4: Concentrated forced liquidation of leveraged shorts creates a typical "short squeeze" scenario. Derivatives data shows that during this rally, the scale of short liquidations far exceeded that of longs. According to Coinglass data, as of the time of writing, the 24-hour total liquidation amount across the network has expanded to $2.98 billion, with over 170,000 traders forcibly liquidated, overwhelmingly dominated by short liquidations; within a 4-hour window, short liquidations accounted for as much as 93.3%. The largest single liquidation order on the network occurred on the Hyperliquid platform's BTC-USD contract, amounting to $48.8 million. Large forced liquidations of short positions often create momentary buy-side vacuums in the order book, pushing prices to accelerate beyond previous ranges, triggering more stop-loss orders and forming a positive feedback loop of "longs killing shorts."