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The entity that took profit at the $4400 high point of $ETH has added 3385.82 more tokens!
Since yesterday, a total of 16699.32 ETH has been purchased through Cowswap, with a total value exceeding 35.84 million USD, an average cost of $2146.42, and a current unrealized profit of 3.335 million USD.
The funds come from a mixer; if it's a hacker address, then they are also a top trader among hackers 😂A Morgan Stanley report states that China's international balance of payments structure has shifted to a "mirror" model, with a current account surplus reaching as high as $735 billion in 2025. However, unlike before, this surplus has not translated into an increase in official foreign exchange reserves but has been offset by a deficit of about $782 billion under the non-reserve financial account. This means that the huge foreign exchange income generated by goods trade is being reallocated to overseas assets through channels such as private sector securities investments (about $426 billion) and other investments (about $317 billion).
This year's rapid tightening of a series of outbound investment policies, hitting Futu and Qiangqiao, new outbound investment regulations, and offshore trust taxation all point to the fact that our management is preparing to initiate the realization of domestic value.
In past overseas downturns, Sino-US relations had not deteriorated to the current hostile state. In 2008, the idea that saving the US was saving oneself prevailed; in this international political environment where cooperation outweighed hostility, US authorities tended to adopt a one-time rapid clearing approach to the economic crisis, allowing the economy to drop to freezing point in a short time.
Now that China and the US are in a hostile state, allowing the economy to collapse uncontrollably on either side would only create opportunities for the opponent. Therefore, neither China nor the US will experience uncontrolled economic collapses like those in 2008 or 2015. Instead, a controlled clearing similar to the distorted operations by Paulson will take place. Under such circumstances, the economic gap between domestic and overseas will not be too large, so our management needs to build higher economic barriers to prevent the outflow of domestic value. The Treasury's debt market rescue lasted only one day: the 30-year US Treasury yield surged back to 5.25%
The day before yesterday, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond briefly hit 5.34%, the highest level since 2007. The Treasury quickly intervened, increasing the liquidity repo scale for long-term bonds from 10 to 30 years from a maximum of $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion.
The market's initial reaction was clear: the 30-year Treasury yield quickly dropped to around 5.19%. But after just one day, the situation reversed.
The latest 30-year Treasury yield has returned to around 5.25%, and the 10-year yield is back to about 4.70%. The increase brought by the Treasury's intervention has basically been given back by the bond market.
The market's concern may not just be "insufficient liquidity," but a deeper issue: the US's debt exceeding $40 trillion, long-term fiscal deficits, inflation, and the continuously increasing bond issuance in the future.
A $4 billion repo can improve market liquidity but cannot make the fiscal deficit disappear out of thin air. Interestingly, Treasury Secretary Bessent has already indicated that the repo scale could be further increased in the future.
So the real question going forward might be: if $4 billion is not enough, what about $8 billion? And if $8 billion still can't contain it?
This kind of operation is actually positive for neutral assets like $BTC
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 semi-annual report. The most noteworthy aspect of this report is not the ¥17.17 billion revenue and 23.8% year-on-year growth, but the profound structural change occurring in the IP matrix — the shift in growth pace of LABUBU and the explosive rise of Star People together form the core narrative of Pop Mart's "growth shift."
1. LABUBU Declines, Star People Takes Over
In 2025, THE MONSTERS family, which includes LABUBU, achieved annual revenue of ¥14.16 billion, a 365.7% year-on-year increase, becoming the first IP in the trendy toy market to surpass ¥10 billion. However, in the first half of 2026, THE MONSTERS revenue was ¥4.45 billion, down 7.5% year-on-year, with its revenue share dropping from 34.7% in the same period last year to 26%.
Filling this gap is Star People. This IP, which launched its first product set only in 2024, reached ¥2.65 billion in revenue in the first half of the year, a 580.6% year-on-year increase, quickly becoming the company's second-largest IP. From ¥390 million in the same period last year to ¥2.65 billion now, Star People's growth rate is phenomenal.
Meanwhile, CRYBABY, DIMOO, SKULLPANDA, and Hirono each generated revenues of ¥1.63 billion, ¥1.62 billion, ¥1.55 billion, and ¥1.01 billion respectively. In the first half, six IPs exceeded ¥1 billion in revenue, and eleven IPs surpassed ¥100 million. The diversification of the IP matrix is reducing the company's reliance on a single blockbuster.
2. Multiple IPs Taking Over, or "One for One"?
The biggest long-term concern in the market about Pop Mart has been the "LABUBU dependency." Now that LABUBU's share has declined and Star People has risen rapidly, this concern has been initially addressed. But the question of whether multiple IPs can take over is far more complex than surface data suggests.
On the positive side: Star People's rapid growth proves that Pop Mart's internal IP incubation mechanism is maturing. From 29 new IPs in 2024 to 57 in 2025, the launch frequency is nearly one per week. This strategy of "throwing dozens of IPs into the market for testing" is moving from quantitative change to qualitative change.
Challenges are also significant: THE MONSTERS revenue of ¥4.45 billion is still about 1.7 times that of Star People. LABUBU's popularity changes still have a crucial impact on the overall picture. Moreover, can Star People's explosive growth continue? Where is the next Star People? There is still a long way to go from "one super IP" to "a group of strong IPs."
3. Overseas Pressure, China Market Leading
Another signal worth noting comes from overseas markets. Overseas revenue in the first half was ¥4.972 billion, down 11.6% year-on-year. Revenue in the Americas fell 16.5%, and Asia-Pacific dropped 9.7%. Pop Mart founder Wang Ning admitted that last year's overseas boom had an element of "luck."
In stark contrast, the Chinese market revenue was ¥12.2 billion, up 47.3% year-on-year. Online channels grew 62.7%, and revenue from the blind box vending machine app surged 83.3%. The strong growth of the domestic base provides ample confidence for the company’s proactive adjustments during this "rest year."
4. Closing Remarks
Wang Ning stated in the earnings call that 2026 is the company's "restructuring year," with the core goal of solidifying the business foundation and optimizing the global channel structure, rather than pursuing short-term scale expansion. The company also announced a share repurchase plan ranging from no less than ¥2 billion to no more than ¥5 billion.
From LABUBU to Star People, from a single blockbuster to an IP matrix, Pop Mart is undergoing a transformation from "luck-driven" to "capability-driven." Whether multiple IPs can truly take over does not depend on whether a single IP can replace LABUBU, but on whether the company can continuously create the next Star People. This requires time to verify, but at least from this semi-annual report, Pop Mart has taken a crucial first step.
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The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute any investment advice.
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ SharpLink Gaming staked another 39,319 ETH 4 hours ago, worth $91 million.The storage sector indeed hasn't picked up yet, but HYPE has already surged back to its previous high.
Why is the storage sector still consolidating? The main suppressing factor is long-term interest rates, with AI-related bond supply reaching $489 billion. The storage sector is a typical "long-duration asset," with a long profit realization period, sensitive to interest rates, and its valuation is directly suppressed.
Rising too much is also a problem. $SNDK SanDisk rebounded from the low point to 1814; the short-term rise was too fast, leading to concentrated profit-taking. On August 18, SK Hynix's 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation is currently the strongest signal, reducing circulating shares. It once surged over 7% pre-market, and the market recognizes this move. However, the long-term interest rate suppression hasn't been lifted yet, and the overall sector sentiment reversal requires a clearer catalyst.
Why is $HYPE so volatile? The direct catalyst is the White House crypto meeting. Trump mentioned that the CFTC is working hard to bring Hyperliquid into the US, which is equivalent to presidential-level regulatory endorsement. HYPE rose 20%-25% within 24 hours, trading volume surged to $1.3 billion, close to historical highs, and its market cap entered the top ten.
But relying solely on news hype is not enough. Hyperliquid captures 40%-70% of DeFi perpetual contract trading volume, and the platform directs most fees to a fund that continuously buys HYPE. The on-chain fundamentals are strengthening, combined with presidential-level regulatory endorsement, which supports this bullish move. $BTC
The storage sector is still waiting for an improvement in the interest rate environment. Assets like HYPE, which have strong fundamentals plus event catalysts, naturally experience high volatility. MicroStrategy's New $10 Billion Coin Buying Plan: Is Saylor's Infinite Money Printing Flywheel Really Without a Reflexivity Deadlock?
MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has once again stirred a sensational capital storm on Wall Street.
Its leader, Michael Saylor, has submitted a multi-billion-dollar plan for stock issuance and ultra-low-interest convertible notes financing, determined to push MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings to an astonishing 2% of the global circulating supply.
Many find it baffling that MicroStrategy's market cap has long been 1.5 to 2 times higher than the net asset value of all its Bitcoin holdings (mNAV). This is equivalent to paying $150 in the market for Bitcoin worth $100. Why are top Wall Street institutions still lining up to buy?
This is not investor blind frenzy but rather Saylor's extremely sophisticated "mNAV Reflexive Flywheel" constructed in the US stock market.
The micro-operation logic of this flywheel is ruthless:
First, leveraging the high premium of its stock relative to Bitcoin net asset value (e.g., 1.8 times mNAV), it issues shares at a premium in the public US market or issues convertible bonds at nearly zero coupon rates (around 0.5%);
Second, it uses the cheap fiat cash raised from Wall Street to buy spot Bitcoin in the secondary market in full and loads it onto the company's balance sheet;
Third, because the high premium issuance directly increases the Bitcoin net value per share (BTC Yield / Bitcoin per share), shareholders who were originally diluted actually gain more Bitcoin yield, and the stock is further hyped by Wall Street long institutions, pushing the premium higher and triggering the next larger fundraising and coin buying cycle.
During periods of unidirectional Bitcoin price rises or ample liquidity, this flywheel acts like a perpetual motion machine, shifting all fiat inflation debt costs to the market and making MicroStrategy the most aggressive Bitcoin leverage amplifier on the network.
However, any financial engineering based on reflexivity inevitably has fatal physical deadlocks:
First, the inevitable fading of institutional premium.
In the past, institutions tolerated high premiums to buy MicroStrategy because of the lack of compliant spot channels. But now, with BlackRock's spot ETF surpassing a trillion in scale, full approval of ETF options, and the launch of native custody by major Wall Street banks, institutions can directly buy zero-premium spot ETFs, irreversibly erasing the channel premium once monopolized by MicroStrategy.
Second, the double squeeze of convertible bond maturity and prolonged sideways trading.
If Bitcoin falls into a wide-range shake or deep correction for several quarters, and the stock premium narrows from 1.8 times to parity or discount, the issuance flywheel will instantly jam. When the early-issued $10 billion convertible bonds enter conversion or repayment windows, if investors refuse to convert and demand cash redemption, the huge interest and principal repayment pressure will instantly spiral into a vicious deleveraging cycle.
Saylor's Bitcoin fantasy is an unprecedented macro gamble. Understanding the brilliance of his money printing flywheel requires also respecting the cliff of reflexivity.
MicroStrategy's new $10 billion coin buying plan: do you think Saylor is creating a financial engineering miracle or planting systemic risks? Between spot ETFs and MicroStrategy stock, which do you prefer to hold?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Bitcoin has reached 74,000. The shorts are dead, but the bull market is not yet alive.
This is not a pretentious cryptic phrase, but the most authentic snapshot of the market at this moment. A 14% surge in two days, $3 billion worth of short positions vaporized, the sound of liquidations cracking crisply like ice breaking. A short squeeze, textbook-level short squeeze. But if you think this is the bull market's charge, ask again: who is buying? Who is selling?
The logic is actually very clear. With increased US Treasury repo operations, the market has caught the familiar scent of a disguised QE. The White House's positive stance on cryptocurrency legislation has handed institutional funds a ticket to enter. The dual engines of macro and policy have ignited this blazing rally. But looking closely at on-chain data, a subtle signal is flashing—the outflow from whale wallets is increasing. The higher the price goes, the more composed the smart money exits. Who are they handing their chips to? Is it you chasing the rally, or the shorts who were just squeezed and forced to flip?
A bull market needs two things: the flame of sentiment and the fuel of capital. The flame is enough, but where is the fuel? The increase in spot trading volume lags far behind that of contracts; the derivatives frenzy masks the hesitation in the spot market. This means the foundation of this current rise is more like a tightly stretched string rather than a solid base.
74,000 is not the finish line, but the exam. The test is not whether your prediction is right or wrong, but whether you can still hear your own logic when everyone around is shouting "this time is different"; whether you can calmly ask "what's next?" when the candlestick flames scorch you.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is that when the market gives you a chance, you still have bullets and clarity. Remember to celebrate 74,000, but don't get drunk. The true winner is always the one who leaves the party early on the night of the frenzy and steadily pockets the profits.BTC suddenly surged back to $70,000, did Trump give it another push?
This wave of Bitcoin suddenly rushing from over $60,000 all the way back to $70,000 is definitely not just a simple technical rebound.
On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act.
The signal is very clear: the U.S. is not trying to drive crypto out, but is rushing to establish a regulatory framework.
But I think the real ignition was the liquidity expectation.
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, Treasury yields fell, and the market's liquidity expectations suddenly eased. At the same time, BTC broke through a key level, shorts began to liquidate continuously, and ETF funds flowed back in.
Policy expectations + improved liquidity + short squeeze + ETF funds, a few sparks collided, making it hard for BTC not to rally.
But here I still want to remind you:
$70,000 is not the end, nor is it a reason to blindly chase the rally.
What really matters is whether BTC can hold above $70,000 and turn this level from resistance into support.
If it can hold, the story ahead may just be beginning.
If it can't hold, this might just be a beautiful "bull trap."
Personally, I’m more focused on the trading volume and capital flow in the next few days.
Breaking through is not hard; holding the ground is the real skill.In the previous four articles, we have been discussing "how to safeguard private keys." But if you think custody is just "storing coins," you might already be behind the industry's development. Crypto custody in 2026 has evolved into a complex financial operating system. One of the most cutting-edge practices is "tripartite custody." A new paradigm emerging from the ruins of FTX After the collapse of FTX, the entire industry has been reflecting on one question: how to completely separate client assets from the platform's own funds? The traditional approach is: you deposit coins into the exchange, and the exchange uniformly stores them in cold wallets. But the problem is—if the exchange wants to misappropriate, it still has the authority. The tripartite custody solution is: introducing an independent, regulated third-party custodian. The client's collateral (fiat currency, government bonds, stablecoins, etc.) is not stored on the exchange but in the account of this third-party institution. The exchange is only responsible for "trade execution" and does not touch client assets. In other words, your trading limit on the exchange is "backed" by assets held by the third party. You want to trade, but your assets are not on the exchange's balance sheet at all. Why is this something "only traditional finance dares to do"? In traditional finance, this model is not new. In stock trading, brokers execute trades, while clients' funds and securities are held by independent central clearing institutions (such as the DTCC in the U.S.), and brokers cannot access client assets. This has been a fundamental rule of the financial system for over a hundred years—separating trade execution from asset custody to create checks and balances. Plus🔥 What’s truly scary about SanDisk might not be how much its stock price has risen $SNDK Last night, SanDisk closed up 2.02%, at $1600.62. In the context of SanDisk’s recent wild swings, a 2% move is actually nothing. But I recently revisited SanDisk’s fundamentals and realized the market might no longer be trading on the simple question of “how long can this round of NAND price increases last.” Instead— SanDisk is trying to transform itself from a traditional cyclical stock into a cash flow machine. Why do I say this? First, look at a very striking data point👇 SanDisk has now signed new long-term cooperation agreements with 8 customers. The minimum contract revenue scale reaches: 👉 $93.9 billion And these are not just verbal orders. For FY2027, about 50% of bit shipments are already locked in; for FY2028, it’s even closer to: 👉 2/3 of capacity covered by long-term agreements The average contract term exceeds 4 years. This is very important. What was the biggest problem with NAND before? Demand up → prices rise → manufacturers expand capacity → oversupply → prices fall → profits collapse. A typical cyclical stock. But what SanDisk wants to do now is: lock in customers early + lock in sales volume + set price protection mechanisms In other words, it is trying to reduce its dependence on the wild price fluctuations of NAND. Even more striking is the management’s long-term model for 2028–2030: 📌 Revenue remains stableIs the bull really coming? It's rushing to 74,000!
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💰 Take profit on long positions, wait for a pullback to re-enter
Pair: BTCUSDT
Direction: Long
Entry price: 72,193.6
Exit price: 73,343.9
Leverage: 20x
Return: +29.73%
Profit: +6.54U
The highest reached 73,970, I exited at 73,343, missed the very top. But this trade from 72,100 to 73,300 earned 1,200 dollars, which is pretty good.
📈 Market signals
BTC surged from 72,000 straight to 73,970, up nearly 2,000 dollars. MA5 (73,682), MA10 (73,320), MA20 (73,002) are all in bullish alignment, all moving upward acceleratingly. Volume is 154,700, slightly lower than yesterday but still healthy. The 74,000 level is a key round number; breaking it leads to 75,000.
On the news front, the White House crypto summit released optimistic regulatory sentiment, Trump mentioned "large-scale" Bitcoin reserves, Fed rate hike disagreements widened, and rate cut expectations increased—triple positive factors stacked.
📌 Trading strategy
Direction: Continue long, target 75,000.
Wait for a pullback to 73,000-73,300 to stabilize before entering long, stop loss below 72,000, target 75,000.
If it breaks 74,000 directly, wait for a pullback confirmation before chasing; don’t chase immediately.
Keep up with the bull’s pace, target 75,000
$BTC
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Tether Holdings (issuer of USDT) is one of the world's most profitable and highest per capita profit unlisted fintech and shadow central banking entities. Its essence is not simply a blockchain project, but rather a digital sovereign-grade asset management institution that uses zero or extremely low-cost retail liabilities (stablecoins) to invest in highly liquid sovereign risk-free assets (US Treasuries) and hard assets (gold, Bitcoin), thereby earning unleveraged net interest margin (NIM). Core Indicator Data Performance Industry Comparison / Note: USDT circulating market cap ~$184 billion+ Accounts for ~68%–72% of global stablecoin market share Total reserve assets ~$188 billion – $191 billion Excess reserves (owner's equity buffer pool) reach ~$8.2 billion + U.S. Treasury holdings exposure ~$141 billion (direct and indirect holding) surpassing Germany, South Korea, and other countries, ranking among the top 17 globally U.S. Treasury holding entities Net profit level for full-year 2025 > $10 billion; 2026 Quarterly ~$10–1.5 billion Profit scale approaching BlackRock and Goldman Sachs core business lines Per capita profit > $70 million per person Global workforce only about 120–150 people, operating expense ratio below 1.5% Business model and balance sheet deconstruction 1. The Float Monopoly Tether mints USDT without needing to be mintedBitcoin hit 72,000+, ETH surged nearly 20%, SOL and XRP followed with 13%+, and over $3 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, with over 90% of short positions being short—a brother in the group sent a screenshot showing he opened 65,000 shorts, which were immediately sold out this morning, leaving a comment with just three words: "Is the bull coming?" To put it bluntly, this wave wasn't just a retail investor calling out for trades. The U.S. Treasury said it would expand long-term bond repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall, which relieved risk assets; The White House then called in Coinbase and Circle to discuss the CLARITY Act, and the SEC casually threw out a draft regulation of crypto assets. The market priced in the "policy needs clarification" first. But the ones who really steeped the price were the bears themselves—after six weeks of sideways movement, everyone thought it couldn't go up, leveraged short positions piled up, but a rally triggered chain liquidation, with short positions stepping on short positions, turning it into a textbook short squeeze. Ironically, US stocks were still in the red last night, but COIN and MSTR bucked the trend and surged, marking the first time the crypto world felt like they were "not following the old path of US stocks." The panic and greed index jumped from 46 to 62 in one day, and the number of 80,000 and 100,000 in the group increased again. But I still say the same old thing—short squeeze ≠ bull market confirmation. Now FGI is jumping too fast, and the policy is still "expectations" rather than "implementation." BTC touched 73,000 but then fluctuated back around 72,000. Can the 200-day moving average (about 69k) hold steadily?Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong signals again with a long-term outlook: Bitcoin could reach $300,000–$400,000 in the next few years, a more restrained institutional bullish view compared to the previous extreme expectation of $1 million by 2030.
He laid out the logic very clearly in an interview with Fox Business:
• A regulatory turning point in the U.S. (passage of the GENIUS Act, advancement of the Clear Act) opens the door for institutional compliance;
• Strategic Bitcoin reserves move from a "slogan" to executive order enforcement, with sovereign-level allocations beginning to test the waters;
• Global fiscal deficits and fiat currency depreciation pressures push BTC back into the narrative of "digital gold + reserve candidate."
Note that he hedged his original words: "high margin of error" and "rough idea." The $300,000–$400,000 range corresponds to a neutral scenario over the next 3–5 years with institutional positions gradually reaching 1%–10%; reaching $1 million would require wealth management and sovereign funds to simultaneously overweight, which is an optimistic tail scenario.
Combined with Strive's resumption of increased holdings after a two-month pause yesterday, the top exchange CEOs setting the tone, and treasury companies' practical buying, the narrative chain is closing: this is not a hype call to the top, but a legalization of dollar-cost averaging logic over a "multi-year dimension."
Don't take the prediction as a target price. The CEO's words are about expectation management; BTC's movement depends on liquidity, halving, and ETF flows. Listen to what is said, watch the on-chain data.I am Old K. Someone asked if the altcoin season is coming since BTC has risen?
My view is: it's too early to say "it's here," but the signals are indeed improving.
This rally is completely different from the previous ones where "only BTC was rising"—ETH surged 18% in a single day, $XRP rose nearly 15%, $DOGE, $HYPE, and others followed suit, and the top 100 altcoins all turned green. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has dropped from nearly 63% in June to about 56.5%, showing an initial downward trend, which is one of the necessary conditions for the start of altcoin season.
However, limiting factors are also obvious. Institutional funds are heavily locked into the Bitcoin ecosystem through ETFs, unlike the last bull market when funds could freely flow into altcoins; BTC's RSI has exceeded 79, indicating severe short-term overbought conditions, and the risk of a pullback cannot be ignored.
The real critical window is in September. On September 15, the "CLARITY Act" will have its first vote in the Senate, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held on the same day—if regulatory clarity and macro liquidity resonate, it could truly ignite altcoin season.
ETH and SOL have already started outperforming BTC, and market breadth is improving, but a full altcoin season still requires BTC to complete its main upward move and enter a consolidation phase, Bitcoin dominance to continue declining, and retail investors and on-chain liquidity to re-enter. The signals are improving, but the "confirmation button" has not yet been pressed. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
The same attempt to break the previous high, but this time is completely different from March 2024.
Last time it was driven by continuous ETF inflows + macro easing, with institutions buying with real money.
This time it's ETF fluctuations + Fed's hawkish stance, leveraged buying forced out.
The foundation is unstable, the ground shakes, be cautious in the 72K-75K range.
Wait for a pullback to the 67-70K support zone before considering.
$BTC Pop Mart $POPMART Complete Analysis｜As of 2026 Half-Year Report (Latest as of August 20)
1. Latest Core Financials (First Half of 2026, Major Turning Point)
Revenue: ¥17.17 billion, +23.8% YoY
Net profit attributable to parent company: ¥5.04 billion, only +10.1% YoY
Adjusted net profit ¥5.156 billion, adjusted net margin 30%; gross margin 69.7% (slightly down from 72.1% for full year 2025)
✅ Highlights:
Strong domestic performance: Domestic revenue ¥12.2 billion, +47.3% YoY; explosive growth from Douyin and online blind box machines
New IP succession: Star People revenue ¥2.65 billion, +580% YoY, continuing LABUBU’s popularity
Solid cash flow; company announced ¥2–5 billion buyback plan, management signals support for stock price
⚠️ Core Concerns (Market’s main focus):
Flagship LABUBU (THE MONSTERS) revenue ¥4.45 billion in H1, -7.5% YoY, starting to decline; 2025 was a surge year, so natural cooling off
Profit growth significantly lags revenue growth, slight pressure on gross margin
Overseas revenue decline, short-term setbacks in overseas expansion, expected globalization benefits temporarily weakened
Management candidly states: very likely to miss the early-year 20% revenue growth target, 2026 set as an adjustment year
Compared to 2025 surge year: full-year revenue ¥37.12 billion (+184.7%), net profit attributable ¥13.01 billion (+293.3%), gross margin 72.1%, driven by LABUBU’s phenomenal performance spike, unsustainable
2. Core Competitiveness (Moat)
Mature IP industrialized operation system (strongest barrier)
Not a one-off IP, capable of continuous series iterations, cross-industry collaborations, offline exhibitions, fan community operations; able to continuously create new IPs and sustain old IP popularity (Star People succession proves this); competitors like 52TOYS and TOPTOY find it hard to replicate this complete IP incubation + fan operation system.
Channel closed loop: online blind box machines, Douyin live streaming, offline stores + robot stores, mature private domain membership system, repeat purchases form the base
Supply chain + quality control + artist contract ecosystem, binding designers, stable new product output
3. Core Risks (Most critical, biggest risk for consumer IP stocks)
IP popularity cycle risk (top risk)
Trendy toys are emotional consumption, IPs have clear life cycles; LABUBU’s decline is typical, without the next super hit, both performance and valuation suffer.
Blind box regulatory risk: lottery-style marketing, policies restricting inducement of minors’ consumption
Competitive intensity: domestic TOPTOY, 52TOYS, overseas competitors, major animation companies entering the market cross-industry, splitting users
Macroeconomic consumption: non-essential, discretionary spending; when consumer confidence weakens, it is cut first
Overseas underperformance: cultural acceptance, localization, tariffs and exchange rates, overseas inventory, high overseas marketing costs
4. Valuation & Market Status (Morning of 2026-08-21)
Stock price HKD 145, TTM P/E ≈ 12.98x
Comparison: P/E was very high during 2025 surge phase, now after correction valuation is significantly compressed
Pricing logic: market no longer prices "LABUBU permanent high growth" premium, current pricing is mature IP platform + IP rotation model, watching if Star People and other new IPs can sustain performance and if overseas can return to growth
Capital: Duan Yongping continues to watch/hold; company’s new ¥2–5 billion buyback provides bottom support, but buyback ≠ immediate stock price rise
5. Scenario Simulation (Three paths)
✅ Optimistic (Successful resonance): Star People continues volume growth + new hit emerges + overseas returns to growth → performance stabilizes, valuation recovers upward
⚖️ Neutral (Base case, highest probability): LABUBU continues natural decline, multiple mid-tier IP matrix rotation supports bottom, growth rate continues to slow, enters stable oscillation range, hard to replicate 2025’s violent main upward wave
❌ Pessimistic: New IP succession fails, consumption weakens, overseas continues pressure → performance keeps revising down, valuation continues to be cut
6. One-sentence Summary & Observation Anchors
Pop Mart has bid farewell to the explosive period driven by a single super IP (LABUBU), entering a stable verification period of IP matrix rotation; high gross margin, cash flow, and buybacks provide a safety cushion, but trendy toys are essentially emotional consumption, with large performance elasticity and downside risk. @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 Structurally slightly positive, but still in the "late bear market/bottoming" phase.
• VanEck points out that 8 out of 12 capitulation signals have been triggered, with recent noticeable selling by long-term holders. Historical cycles show an average adjustment period of about 12.7 months, with a potential turning window possibly entering an accumulation phase between September and November 2026.
• Institutions like Bitwise believe the market is no longer sensitive to bad news, bottom characteristics are emerging, and the allocation education period on Wall Street wealth management platforms is nearing its end, with institutional funds likely to gradually enter the market thereafter.
• Institutional interest in Ethereum allocation is rising (continuous net inflows into ETFs, increased corporate holdings), potentially continuing to outperform Bitcoin.
• Key driving factors:
• Whether the U.S. Treasury's repurchase can continue to suppress long-term yields and improve liquidity.
• Whether ETF funds are truly flowing back continuously (rather than short-term replenishment).
• Regulatory progress (procedural vote on the "Clarity Act" in September, implementation of the SEC's new framework).Conclusion first: This round of BTC and ETH rally is a strong rebound driven jointly by "improved macro liquidity expectations + favorable policies + ETF capital inflow + short squeeze," but it is still premature to rigorously confirm that a new comprehensive bull market has arrived.
As of today, BTC is around $73,700, up about 6% intraday; your screenshot shows ETH at about $2,343. BTC has clearly strengthened, but the overall market's upward structure is still incomplete.
1. Why did BTC and ETH suddenly rise this round?
* The government began intervening in long-term Treasury liquidity;
* Long-term U.S. Treasury yields may temporarily decline;
* The U.S. dollar faces some depreciation pressure;
* Valuation pressure on risk assets decreases.
But note: Treasury repos are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve resuming large-scale quantitative easing. They improve market liquidity and sentiment but are not yet sustained "money printing."
Positive expectations emerge for U.S. crypto regulation
Trump is again pushing the "Clarity Act," attempting to clarify whether digital assets fall under securities regulation or commodities regulation.
The market fears not strict regulation, but uncertain regulation.
* Compliance risks for exchanges and institutions decrease;
* Banks, funds, and pensions find it easier to allocate;
* The institutional adoption path for BTC and ETH becomes clearer;
* The market is willing to assign higher valuations.
However, the bill has not yet been fully implemented, so what is being traded now is "policy expectation," not the final outcome. This wave of $BTC is rising faster and faster; frankly, the shorts are stepping on the gas themselves. 😮💨
In different statistical periods, about $2.7 billion to $3.1 billion worth of short positions were liquidated. But don't get it wrong, this doesn't mean the market suddenly gained $3 billion in new funds, nor does it mean shorts actually lost $3 billion.
As the price rises, shorts are forced to cover; covering pushes the price higher, triggering more liquidations. The acceleration of $BTC and ETH these days owes a lot to this short squeeze.
However, it's not all about sentiment. The $BTC spot ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of about $1.004 billion from August 17 to 19, with a single-day inflow of $517.2 million on the 19th. On the 20th, the preliminary report shows $103.3 million, but important fund data is still pending, so whether the momentum can continue remains to be seen. 👀
I'm currently focusing on the $BTC resistance at 73,000; if it holds with volume, then look at 75,000; on the downside, watch 72,000 and 71,000. For ETH, watch resistance at 2,330–2,350 and support at 2,250–2,200.
Don't chase the liquidation numbers; wait for the short squeeze to pass and see if the real buying can hold the position. 🧠Two days ago, everyone was saying: there's no liquidity in the crypto space, all the money has gone to the US stock market. There's no money in the market, how could Bitcoin possibly rise?
But I have been emphasizing: in August, there will first be a spike, around 70,000, maybe 72,000. How do I judge this? The market needs to go against human nature. Everyone is waiting for the last dip, so the market will most likely spike first, squeezing out most of the shorts, creating a bull market illusion. Then everyone will say: the bull market is here, let's go, and then there will be a rapid drop. After squeezing out the longs, there will be a rapid rally. I never believe that a lack of liquidity means a drop, because liquidity can flow back instantly. Price is related to sentiment and the market maker's contrarian moves. Liquidity is what the market maker wants everyone to see. In the previous phase, AI and storage were booming, everyone went to US stocks, and the liquidity everyone talked about was gone. What happened? A 50% crash in a month.
Now carefully consider this question: isn't the lack of liquidity actually the best entry point? Should trading go against human nature? Everyone thinks liquidity is gone, so they start waiting or selling. Then who buys it? Who benefits from a sudden explosive rally? If you don't believe it, just watch, soon everyone will say: liquidity has come from the US stock market back to the crypto space!🔥 What’s truly worth watching about SanDisk might not just be how much its stock price can still rise
$SNDK
Last night, SanDisk closed up 2.02%, but what I’m more focused on isn’t this 2%, but that it’s trying to break free from the fate of a traditional NAND cyclical stock.
Currently, SanDisk has signed long-term agreements with 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of about $93.9 billion. Approximately 50% of bit shipments for FY2027 are already locked in, nearly two-thirds for FY2028, with an average contract term exceeding 4 years.
What does this mean?
Previously, NAND was a typical cyclical business:
Demand up → Price increase → Capacity expansion → Oversupply → Price drop.
But now SanDisk is trying to:
👉 Lock in customers
👉 Lock in sales volume
👉 Reduce the impact of price fluctuations
Management even provided long-term targets for 2028–2030: gross margin around 80%, operating margin around 75%, free cash flow margin around 50%.
📈 My view:
Short term, SanDisk trades on NAND market conditions;
Medium term, it trades on AI data center storage demand;
Long term, the market is betting on whether it can transform from a cyclical stock into a high cash flow asset.
But the risks are also clear:
👉 Can NAND prices remain strong?
👉 Can future growth shift from "price-driven" to "demand-driven"?
So the most critical question now isn’t:
How much more can SanDisk rise?
But rather:
Will this NAND cycle really be different from the past?
#SanDisk #StorageChips🔥 What’s truly scary about SanDisk might not be how much its stock price has risen $SNDK Last night, SanDisk closed up 2.02%, at $1600.62. In the context of SanDisk’s recent wild swings, a 2% move is actually nothing. But I recently revisited SanDisk’s fundamentals and realized the market might no longer be trading on the simple question of “how long can this round of NAND price increases last.” Instead— SanDisk is trying to transform itself from a traditional cyclical stock into a cash flow machine. Why do I say this? First, look at a very striking data point👇 SanDisk has now signed new long-term cooperation agreements with 8 customers. The minimum contract revenue scale reaches: 👉 $93.9 billion And these are not just verbal orders. For FY2027, about 50% of bit shipments are already locked in; for FY2028, it’s even closer to: 👉 2/3 of capacity covered by long-term agreements The average contract term exceeds 4 years. This is very important. What was the biggest problem with NAND before? Demand up → prices rise → manufacturers expand capacity → oversupply → prices fall → profits collapse. A typical cyclical stock. But what SanDisk wants to do now is: lock in customers early + lock in sales volume + set price protection mechanisms In other words, it is trying to reduce its dependence on the wild price fluctuations of NAND. Even more striking is the management’s long-term model for 2028–2030: 📌 Revenue remains stableBitcoin surged 15% in four days, and Ethereum was even more aggressive, shooting up 22%. Damn, the group chat went wild again, shouting loudly about a bull market comeback.
Technically, there's really no room for criticism; the daily MA200, RSI, and MACD all look good. The macro environment is strangely favorable too: inflation is down, ISM is up, and the Russell 2000 hit new highs. Short-term bullish, I agree.
But I just feel something's off.
In July and August 2022, it was exactly the same. A 40% rally with everyone shouting bull market, but then in November it dropped 22% in one week. The FTX crash was an excuse, but even before that, the confirmed reversal in Q4 was brutal and unchanged. In this space, when everyone is collectively bullish, it's often when the knives are being sharpened.
Right now, I only hold a position in $OKB. It's not that I don't like $BTC, but I'm afraid of being spun around by a fake breakout. 67K (the top of the August sideways box, now considered a retest level) is the key: if it holds above, this rally can keep going with the music and dance; if it breaks, no excuses, it's a false signal, and you need to run faster than anyone else.
The four-year cycle thing, Bitcoin has never broken it. Conclusion? Cautiously bullish. I also want it to fly straight to 1 million, but after several bull and bear cycles, impulsiveness basically equals suicide.
I'm lightly holding for now, waiting for stability before adding more. If you want to rush in, remember the 67K hurdle—if it breaks, don't be stubborn, don't say I didn't warn you.
(PS: The above is all my personal speculation and does not constitute investment advice)
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 We're back in that classic cycle—you know the drill.
$BTC suddenly surges, strong market volatility, everyone's eyes glued to the charts. The higher it goes, the more people panic-sell their altcoins chasing momentum. So your altcoins start to "bleed" in $BTC terms, even if the USD price doesn't seem to drop.
Then $BTC hits a wall—a key resistance on a higher time frame—and then... it starts to consolidate. That's when altcoins wake up. They temporarily outperform, and everyone feels smart again.
Then what? The whole process repeats. Bitcoin rises, altcoins get dumped; Bitcoin pauses, altcoins rally. Repeat, and repeat.
It's like watching the same movie on loop, but somehow, we keep buying tickets. Yesterday's big $ETH bullish candle precisely wiped out my short position.
Today, watching it hover around $2350 back and forth, I don't even bother sighing anymore.
In the past 24 hours, Ethereum shorts liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion, with the largest single liquidation reaching $108 million.
Bitcoin hasn't been idle either, breaking through $72000 directly—I thought this market was unreal a couple of days ago, but looking back, it's not the price that's crazy, it's us who always try to catch the top.
But this rally can't be blamed solely on short squeezes.
ETH spot ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive days, with about $189 million flowing in just yesterday.
Forced liquidations are the fuse; ETFs and real cash spot buying are the ammunition continuously pushing prices higher, which is why ETH is bouncing more violently than BTC.
What's even more interesting is that gold has surged above $4500.
Risk assets and safe-haven assets are both rising; on the surface, it looks divided, but in reality, they're trading on the same logic: a weakening dollar, declining long-term interest rates, and concerns over fiscal risks.
The crypto market absorbs liquidity, gold feeds on risk-off sentiment, each going their own way without interfering with each other.
Currently, ETH's one-hour RSI has exceeded 80, clearly overheated and severely overbought, but the short positions have been completely dismantled.
Today also coincides with BTC and ETH options expiration, so price swings before and after settlement are no surprise.
If I were to open a short now, I'd be really scared; if chasing longs, I'd have to wait for a pullback to consider.
Having just been trapped once, I don't want to switch directions and get trapped again.
$BTC
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 DOGE's market cap ratio to SHIB isn't expanding now, but rather stuck around four times for almost a year. In January this year, DOGE was about $20.9 billion and SHIB about $5 billion, with a ratio of 4.2; during the sector rebound in May, DOGE was about $16.8 billion and SHIB about $3.8 billion, with a ratio of 4.4; by mid-August, DOGE fell back to about $10.9 billion, SHIB about $2.7 billion, and the ratio shrank back to around 4.0. Back and forth, neither side left the other. Why can't it be opened? Because the two coins face the same wall: too large in scale, and new capital cannot be pushed forward. DOGE inflation increased by 5 billion coins over the year, continuing to dilute; SHIB circulates 589 trillion tokens; burning 41% sounds alarming, but the annual impact on price is minimal. Supply mathematics locks the two into a state of "slow rises and equally inseparable declines." The real change happened elsewhere: in May, MemeCore overtook SHIB to become second in the sector, even losing its "number two" position. So rather than asking which is stronger, $DOGE or $SHIB, it's more accurate to say the sector itself is shrinking—the sector's total market cap has dropped from 93.1 billion at the start of 2025 to 36.5 billion in January, and only around 25 billion in August. The old dragon head guards the throne, but the kingdom is shrinking. To wait for DOGE to pull back ahead, the overall market level must first rise again.#BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue?
400u aiming for 1 million, today is day eighteen
Yesterday's funds were 1290. Today's 1270
In 18 days, funds grew from 400u to 1270u, which is a pretty good short-term gain. I don't think I can replicate the return rate of the first 18 days.
The larger the fund size, the greater the emotional fluctuations, making the account harder to manage.
During this period, mainly trading $CAP. Finally, cap has started to decline.
0.066 has been stuck for me for half a month, luckily the increase didn't exceed expectations.
I have always believed the price had reached a high point during this period. It's a case of sweet after bitterness; the target has finally started to be profitable. Continuing to hold short positions, won't close before reaching the target.
$HYPE I entered the base position at 62, currently also at a loss, but the position size is small. The reason for this round of surge is mainly because the US government is considering introducing HYPE into the national treasury.
This reason offsets the unlocking pressure of this token.
Once the hype fades and the unlocking pressure is released later, I feel it will drop again.
$DOGE Dogecoin, not much to comment on. All the rises in MEME coins are almost entirely driven by sentiment.
Someone needs to call the shots, have a big player endorse it to pump the sentiment.
The last crazy surge was entirely because Musk called it.
This situation is acceptable once or twice, but after many times, everyone becomes immune.
Personally, I think the price won't surge as ridiculously as before.
In the end, it will probably just be drowned in the waves of the crypto world.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 📊 HYPE合约清算快照（8月21日）：空头逐步控盘，12小时近乎平衡，24小时二次爆发，总清算突破837万美元 从HYPE清算数据看：1小时内空头碾压多头，空头量达多头30.9倍，金额321,900美元，空头强势控盘；4小时内空头动能骤降，仅剩多头的1.8倍，清算量升至412,200美元，优势大幅收窄，双方趋于平衡；12小时内空头优势几乎消失，仅为多头1.2倍，清算量飙升至1,422,900美元，双方基本打平；24小时内空头二次爆发，空头清算6,017,300美元对多头2,354,000美元，空头为多头2.6倍，总清算突破837万美元。12小时清算仅占24小时总量的30.9%，集中度偏低——最近12小时新增清算高达5,787,100美元，空头在24小时内重新积蓄力量发动第二波攻势。空头碾压比从1小时的30.9倍降至4小时1.8倍、12小时1.2倍，再反弹至24小时2.6倍，打压动能走出“V型反转”轨迹——空头几乎丧失优势后又重新加力，但二次爆发力度不及初期峰值。建议杠杆降至3倍以下，虽然方向重回空头，但力量有限，避免盲目追空。 🔥 市场指标 | 8月21日 今日三大热点同指一个主Driving essence: news catalyst + short squeeze, not a trend reversal
Triple news ignited simultaneously:
· The US Treasury doubles the scale of long bond repurchases (market interprets as liquidity easing)
· Trump meets with crypto industry executives to promote the "Clear Act"
· SEC plans to relax token registration exemptions
But note: Coinbase premium index is still negative, indicating that real demand in the US spot market has not returned — this wave is mainly leverage-driven, not spot buying. On-chain data is still in the "surrender phase". #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ $BTC $ETH rose from 1,906 to 2,330 in this wave: the most dangerous moment tomorrow morning is for those who didn't get on board last night
$ETH surged from 1,906 to 2,330 in the past two days, with a maximum increase of over 20%, and is now pulling back to around 2,270 for consolidation. The Grayscale ETH staking ETF rose 10.4% today in the US stock market, and its premium has been squeezed out.
But I want to pour cold water. The most dangerous at 8 AM tomorrow is not the holders, but those who watched others make money last night and are ready to rush in at dawn.
The logic is simple: half of this ETH rise is due to its own strength—continuous net inflows into the ETF, record-high staking rates, whales accumulating during weak periods, these are real money; the other half is the sentiment premium driven by BTC, which is virtual. When $BTC takes a breather, ETH's sentiment premium will retreat.
The data shows how hot the market is: futures open interest and funding rates are rising together, leverage positions are clearly involved; short-term indicators for the ETF have entered the overbought zone. Sentiment is already near the peak.
My judgment: at 8 AM tomorrow, the probability of ETH oscillating between 2,200-2,300 is the highest. Holding $2,200 means the upward momentum is still intact, and there will be a second wave later; breaking below 2,150 and retesting 2,100 for support is not shameful.
Don't rush to act the day after a surge. Let the bullets fly overnight; the morning price will tell you how much of last night's frenzy was genuine.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 The stablecoin battle is growing much bigger than crypto. Think simply: A person in Vietnam, Argentina, or Nigeria can hold USD exposure without directly opening a US bank account. All they need is: USDT / USDC + blockchain. Stablecoins are therefore becoming a USD payment layer running 24/7 on the Internet. The interesting thing is that this can simultaneously: Increase demand for USD reserve assets. Expand the usage scope of the USD. Bring Treasury into blockchain infrastructure. And drive tokenization. So stablecoin regu $BTC +6.00% in one day, reaching a high of 73,970, the screen is full of "new highs again." Let's be clear: the breakout is a 60-day high, not an all-time high. Looking upward, the highest point within 100 days is still 82,001, which is 10.2% away. These two things should not be confused. What really matters is the position structure: open interest in perpetual contracts only increased by 2.51% during the same period, while the price rose by 6.00%, less than half the growth rate; the funding rate is 0.001961%, meaning longs have hardly paid any premium for this rally; the long-to-short account ratio dropped from 1.15 24 hours ago to 1.02, so the proportion of accounts going long actually shrank during the price increase. In summary, this rally was not driven by leverage; spot prices pushed the price up first, and contracts have not caught up yet. An upward move without leverage buildup means no liquidation risk, which is good, but it also means no fresh capital is stepping in. Going forward, just watch two numbers: whether open interest can keep up, and whether 73,970 can hold. If it truly breaks below 68,878, consider this rally as if it never happened. ☀️ Good morning, Friday, August 21.
Overnight: BTC held steady at 73.6K, maintaining the high level after this short squeeze; ETH, SOL, BNB broadly rose but with noticeably reduced gains, AAVE and HYPE slightly declined, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%, gold at 4516 slightly adjusted from highs. In short — after the short squeeze surge, the market enters a high-level consolidation phase, risk appetite is moderate, and the market is waiting for a direction.
Today's key focus: Global S&P PMI preliminary data (August). Don’t just look at the total index; focus on two subcomponents — employment and prices. These two directly affect the trajectory of US Treasury yields, which then transmit to crypto and US stocks. Additionally, Japan’s July CPI, UK retail sales, and Eurozone consumer confidence are also worth a glance.
Guanlan’s view: Last night’s big bullish candle was satisfying, but today is the "inspection" day. If data confirms (stable PMI, controllable prices), the high-level consolidation has a reason to hold; if data weakens, the excess from the short squeeze will be given back accordingly. Don’t chase highs driven by yesterday’s sentiment; let today’s data guide your judgment.
Focus on data results; sentiment is just noise. Today, let the data speak. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
The above is a research opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #比特币 #美股 #PMI#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
The banking sector's stance this time is very subtle.
On August 19, the American Bankers Association expressed support for the passage of the CLARITY Act, but with one condition — the stablecoin rewards must be strictly regulated.
In plain terms: support, but with modifications.
Why do banks want to block this? Because the current practice is that platforms and wallets issue earnings to users under the name of "rewards," bypassing the GENIUS Act's prohibition on paying interest on stablecoins. Banks see this as a disguised way of attracting deposits, which threatens their foundation — less money in banks means small business loans, mortgages, and agricultural financing will all be affected.
The impact on the crypto world can be summed up in two words — tug of war.
On September 15, there will be a procedural vote in the Senate, requiring 60 votes for the bill to pass. The banking system's total assets amount to 25 trillion, and some analyses suggest that up to 6.6 trillion in deposits could flow out. The CEO of a major U.S. bank even warned that 6 trillion could be lost, accounting for 30% to 35% of commercial bank deposits.
On one hand, there is a need for regulatory certainty; on the other, there is a need to preserve the deposit base. On the surface, it's a dispute over the wording of the bill, but behind it lies a battle over the flow of tens of trillions of dollars.
Here’s my take. Banks are not against crypto; they fear that "rewards" will siphon off deposits. Once the CLARITY Act passes, the crypto industry will have a compliant path, but the stablecoin rewards model will be redefined.
On September 15, we’ll see who can gain more at the negotiating table. The bill is a long-term positive for the crypto industry, but don’t expect an overnight success — the game is still ongoing.
What do you think? #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue?
$BTC broke 72,000. Relying solely on a "short squeeze" probably won't get far, but this time there is indeed something behind it.
A short-term liquidation of about $310 million shorts accelerated the rise, but more importantly: on August 19, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow was $517 million, with a cumulative inflow exceeding $1.47 billion in August, indicating this wave is not just pure leverage hype.
My judgment: $70,000 is the dividing line between strength and weakness, $72,000 is the breakout confirmation level. If ETF inflows continue and spot trading keeps up, the market could shift from a "short squeeze" to a trending rally; otherwise, a pullback after the surge is a typical sign that "the shorts are gone, and the bulls are starting to cut their losses."...One
Key follow-up observation points
November 2026 U.S. midterm elections: Directly determine control of the House of Representatives; if the Democrats flip control, a comprehensive investigation into the project will be launched, affecting the pace of subsequent compliance progress.
World Liberty Trust license issuance progress: Track whether it completes capital injection on time, passes regulatory inspections, and officially obtains full trust bank operating qualifications.
USD1 market cap growth data: Monitor its circulation growth rate in multi-chain deployment, Binance Pay offline payments, and RWA contract scenarios, which directly determines the expansion speed of WLFI's deflationary base.
RWA product line rollout pace: The official launch times of WLFI Markets lending market, World Swap foreign exchange network, Maldives resort tokenization project, and the rollout progress of the WLFI App super wallet.
Implementation of the "GENIUS Act" supporting regulations: The final clarification of U.S. federal stablecoin regulatory rules will directly determine the scale of institutional capital access for USD1. As of August 21, 2026, Ethereum has strongly broken through $2300, with a 24-hour increase of over 10%. This round of rise is mainly driven by three positive factors: the U.S. Treasury's increased bond repurchases improving macro liquidity; the U.S. SEC proposing a new crypto regulatory framework boosting market confidence; and the liquidation of over $1.4 billion in short positions, creating a short squeeze. $ETH
At the same time, Ethereum ETFs saw a record single-day inflow of nearly $190 million, further propelling the rally.
In the short term, ETH is facing resistance in the $2350-$2450 range. If it can sustain above this level, it is expected to open up space towards $2700-$3000. However, whether the rally can continue depends critically on the sustained inflow of ETF funds and whether the macro interest rate environment remains low. $ASTER Unlock Schedule
· Unlock Timeline:
· September 1: 2.25 million tokens
· September 17: 10 million tokens
· October 1: 2.25 million tokens
· October 17: 10 million tokens
· November 1: 2.25 million tokens
· Scale Estimate: Based on the current price of 0.68 USDT, a single unlock of 10 million tokens corresponds to a market value of approximately 6.8 million USDT. ASTER's total trading volume in the past 24 hours is about 14.88 million USDT, so a single unlock accounts for over 45% of the daily trading volume. Theoretically, this could create potential selling pressure, but the actual impact depends on whether holders choose to sell.
· Current Market Overview: The price is close to the previous high of 0.681, moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and the MACD golden cross continues, but recent trading volume has significantly shrunk (VOL 470,000 vs MA5 2,920,000). Technically bullish, but volume is weak, indicating a divergence.
· Uncertainty: Unlocking is a known event, but whether the market has priced it in beforehand and how the tokens will flow post-unlock cannot be predicted. Different investors have different costs and strategies, so it cannot be simply equated to "inevitable decline" or "irrelevant."
Conclusion: Mid-September and mid-October are important observation points. It is recommended to monitor actual price and volume changes at those times and make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance. What truly pushed $BTC from 63,000 all the way to 73,000 was not a single isolated positive factor, but several variables suddenly aligning on the bulls' side.
The first layer is the loosening of liquidity expectations.
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, and the core impact is not just "how much debt was bought," but more importantly, the market began to reprice interest rate and liquidity expectations. After the pressure on long-term yields eased, capital's risk appetite for high-volatility, high-beta assets naturally rebounded, and $BTC immediately captured this sentiment premium.
The second layer is a clear shift in regulatory expectations.
Trump has recently continued to push for structural legislation in the crypto market, and the SEC has also proposed a new crypto regulatory framework. For institutional funds, the biggest fear is not volatility but uncertainty.
What the market is actually trading now is an expectation:
Regulation is gradually shifting from "restricting the industry" to "setting rules for the industry."
As long as this expectation continues to strengthen, the institutional allocation logic for BTC will have more sustainability than mere speculation.
The third layer, and the fiercest fuel for this wave, is the shorts.
Once $BTC broke through key resistance levels, the large accumulated short positions were forced to stop loss and liquidate.
This led to the classic cycle:
Price rises → shorts stop loss → forced buy-ins → further price increase → more shorts forced out.
This is no ordinary rally but a typical "short squeeze acceleration."
Recently, daily liquidation volumes in the crypto market have reached tens of billions of dollars, with the vast majority coming from shorts, indicating a clear leverage stampede effect in this rally.
So the core logic of this BTC rally can be summarized in one sentence:
Improved liquidity expectations + warming regulatory expectations + concentrated short clearing = sudden acceleration in the market.
Going from 63,000 to 73,000 looks like just a 10,000 USD increase, but in reality, it represents a switch in market pricing logic.
However, it’s important to note:
Short squeeze rallies easily create the illusion of "only up, no down."
After a large number of shorts are cleared, continuing upward movement requires genuine new capital to take over, not just forced liquidations pushing the price.
So what’s truly worth watching next is not "whether it can keep rising," but:
After BTC breaks 70,000, can spot trading volume, ETF capital, and new long positions keep up?
If capital continues to flow in, 70,000 could shift from a resistance level to a new support;
If it’s just a pulse driven by sentiment and short covering, the higher it goes, the more likely a sharp pullback will occur.
Therefore, the biggest mistake now is not misreading the direction, but blindly chasing after a big green candle.
The trend has strengthened, but the real big move is often not decided by the first green candle, but by whether capital continues to follow after the breakout.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $BTC BTC experienced a violent surge last night, returning above 72,000, with a two-day increase of over 11%, a typical multi-factor short squeeze rally.
Breaking down the three main drivers of this rise:
1. Short squeeze stampede is the direct trigger: a large number of short contracts accumulated during the long-term 60,000 range consolidation. After the price broke through key resistance, a mass of short positions triggered forced liquidations, and passive buying further pushed the market up. Over $3 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for more than 90%.
2. Macro liquidity expectations warming: US Treasury repo scale increased, long-term yields declined, risk asset valuations recovered, providing sentiment support to the crypto market.
3. Improved regulatory expectations + spot accumulation: US crypto regulatory bill optimism is rising, and large whale addresses on-chain have been continuously accumulating at low levels, laying the spot foundation for the rebound.
An objective and rational reminder: a short squeeze rebound ≠ confirmation of a bull market. Short-term market sentiment has entered the greed zone, volatility will increase, and there is a risk of correction after expectations are realized. The essence of trading is not chasing rising markets but sticking to your position rules: strictly control leverage, take profits in batches, set stop losses, and always prioritize capital safety.
The market never lacks opportunities; those who can stay in the game long-term are the ultimate winners. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 The Fear and Greed Index jumped 16 points in one day, moving from fear to greed with just one bullish candle.
Yesterday, the Panic and Greed Index surged to 62, jumping 16 points in a day, moving directly from fear into the greed zone. A week ago it was still 29 (fear), and a month ago it was 25, indicating extreme fear.
This index is composed of five dimensions—volatility, trading volume, social media popularity, market surveys, and Bitcoin market dominance. BTC pulled up to 73,000, wiping out $3 billion in short positions, trading volume surged, bullish sentiment flooded the screens, and the index followed upward.
But what I care more about is the speed of change, not the absolute value.
Within a month, the sentiment shifted from extreme fear to greed, taking only four bullish candles. It’s not that the fundamentals changed, but the price did. A month ago, when BTC was sideways at 63,000, everyone was panicking, thinking 60,000 wouldn’t hold. Now at 72,000, the same group is shouting “the bull market is back.” That index isn’t measuring market sentiment; it’s just repeating the price movement of the past 24 hours.
A greed level of 62 itself isn’t the problem; the problem is climbing from 25 to 62 within a month. This speed means market sentiment is being driven by price, not logic. A truly healthy bull market has the greed index slowly climbing at high levels, repeatedly pulling back to confirm. A greed index shooting straight up corresponds to fear crashing straight down.
At this point, I won’t chase just because the index turns greedy, nor will I assume the market will continue just because there’s still room. The index tells you “the market is already hot,” not “it will get hotter.”Pop Mart Mid-Year Report Analysis: Impressive Book Profit, but Growth Concerns Already Emerging
Pop Mart's 2026 first half financial report shows very attractive book figures: revenue of ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company of ¥5.04 billion. However, breaking down the details reveals significant contradictions: profit growth rate is only 10.1%, far below revenue growth, gross margin slightly declined, and expansion costs are gradually becoming apparent.
The regional structure shows sharp divergence. Domestic market supports the main business, with revenue soaring 47.3% year-on-year; the once explosive overseas market is slowing down, with Asia-Pacific revenue down 9.7%, Americas down 16.5%, overseas online channels weakening significantly, and international expansion facing obstacles.
The IP side is experiencing transitional pains. THEMONSTERS, owner of the hit LABUBU, saw revenue decline 7.5% year-on-year, indicating the super cycle is entering a downturn; meanwhile, Star People emerged strongly, with revenue surging 580%, becoming the second largest IP. However, IPs have life cycles, and whether a single new hit can fully take over the market share left by LABUBU remains to be seen.
Three major risks lie ahead for the company: declining popularity of leading old IPs, new IPs not yet tested over a long cycle, and pressure on inventory turnover efficiency. For an IP-driven company, this set of signals is more concerning than just a slowdown in revenue.
This financial report is by no means bad; a net profit of ¥5 billion is very strong in the consumer industry. But what the capital market truly worries about is: the cooling overseas expansion combined with the transition between old and new IPs means a growth ceiling, which may arrive earlier than the market previously expected The three core drivers behind this round of $BTC and $ETH surge
Macro liquidity directly loosened : On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the cap on long-term Treasury repurchases to $4 billion per operation. The long-term U.S. Treasury yield quickly fell from 5.3% to 5.19%, directly easing the valuation pressure on crypto assets under a high interest rate environment, and risk appetite rapidly recovered.
Regulatory policy unexpectedly shifts : The U.S. $SEC proposed the "Regulation Crypto Assets" draft rule, designing a new safe harbor exemption mechanism for certain crypto asset issuances. Additionally, on August 19, Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House, urging Congress to advance the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," significantly warming compliance expectations.
Market structure short squeeze amplifies gains : The market had previously accumulated a large number of short positions betting against Bitcoin $BTC. After a rapid price surge, a chain of forced liquidations was triggered, with over $3.1 billion in shorts liquidated within 24 hours, further pushing prices higher and creating a rare short squeeze rally.
2. Key observation points for the subsequent market
Short term 1-3 days : Focus on the support validity at Bitcoin's $72,000 level. If it holds, bullish momentum will further spread to mainstream altcoins like $ETH Ethereum and $SOL. Otherwise, a short-term profit-taking pullback may occur.
Medium term 1-2 weeks : Monitor the legislative progress of U.S. crypto regulatory bills and whether ETF funds continue to see net inflows. These are core signals to confirm that this rebound is shifting from valuation repair to a trend reversal.
Long term : The current market is in a special macro environment of "high oil prices but no rate hikes, high inflation but policy on hold." Bitcoin's independent upward attribute will continue to stand out in this environment.$BTC This round suddenly surged to $70,000, and many people's first reaction was "the money is back." But if you break it down, there's a more direct driving force behind this rally: the consecutive liquidations of bears. According to market data, liquidations in the crypto market exceeded $3 billion in the past 24 hours, with a large portion coming from short positions in BTC and ETH. When the price breaks through a key level, positions that originally bet on decline are forced to close, and the trading platform automatically buys assets to cover the position. Thus, a cycle of "rise—short burst—continued rise" has formed. There is another background to this market rally. Previously, BTC had been volatile for a long time, with many traders believing there was limited upside potential, leading to significant accumulation of short positions in the market. After the announcement of the US long-term Treasury repurchase news, US Treasury yields retreated, market risk appetite improved, and BTC, as a highly volatile asset, began to attract renewed capital attention. But what really matters is not just how many short positions have been exploded, but how much of this rally is considered "forced buying." The biggest feature of short liquidation is its speed, but its duration is limited. Simply put, liquidated funds can help prices break out quickly, but they cannot replace the long-term influx of real new funds. So the key next is not to see if the price continues to rise, but to see if three things can catch up: spot trading volume. ETF fund flows. And whether new buying is ongoing. If prices continue to rise but trading volume does not increase in tandem, the market may re-enter a phase of long-short tug-of-war. For ordinary traders, the biggest insight this time is not "seeing the explosion."About $3 billion in shorts were liquidated, why is BTC rising faster and faster?
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced a rare large-scale short squeeze.
Different data sources estimate about $2.7 billion to $3.1 billion in shorts were forcibly liquidated, with BTC shorts alone losing over $1.7 billion.
BTC surged above $72,000, currently around $72.4K–$72.5K.
One common misunderstanding here is:
$3 billion in liquidations does not equal $3 billion in new funds buying crypto.
What actually happened is—
Many traders originally bet on BTC and ETH to continue falling, but prices suddenly reversed and rose, causing margin shortfalls and forced liquidations by exchanges.
And closing short positions requires buying back.
This creates a cycle:
Price rises → shorts liquidated → forced buying → price continues rising → more shorts liquidated.
This explains why the market suddenly moved so fast these past two days.
But this time it’s not just a short squeeze.
The US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $517 million in the last day, combined with falling US Treasury yields and Trump pushing the CLARITY Act, indicating that after shorts exit, real money is stepping in.
The key going forward is not "how many more shorts can be liquidated," but:
Whether $72K can hold after forced buying ends.
If $72K holds steadily, it means the market is shifting from a short squeeze to genuine buying pressure.Trump's calls are useless; the CFTC is already preparing Plan B.
The White House held a crypto summit on Wednesday, with Trump personally endorsing it, and Coinbase, Robinhood, and a16z all attending. Trump's exact words were: urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible. At the same time, CFTC Chairman Behnam said something else: even if Congress doesn't cooperate, they will independently advance crypto regulatory rules.
In other words, Trump is pushing the bill through executive power, while regulators are already preparing a "Plan B" in case the bill stalls. This sends a signal: the CLARITY Act really can't move forward in the Senate. After the mid-September session resumes, 60 votes are needed to end debate. There are still many votes short. The Democrats are holding up on the morality clause—because the Trump family earned $1.4 billion from crypto business in 2025.
The direction is set—the CLARITY Act is a clear, comprehensive legislative path, and the CFTC and OCC are also advancing rulemaking on their own. Technology, capital, and markets are all moving forward, and the regulatory framework is being built layer by layer.
The uncertainty is about speed, not direction.
$BTC $ETH The earnings season these days is quite interesting: a couple of days ago Xiaomi talked about "people, cars, and homes".
Today, POPMART submitted its report, and next week it's Nvidia's turn to answer whether AI funding can continue to burn.
At first glance, POPMART's report looks solid, but on a second look, I'm a bit hesitant to chase.
Revenue for the first half of the year was ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8%, but net profit attributable to the parent company only increased by 10.1%.
Revenue is still growing, but profit growth is slowing down. The market can no longer just look at how many blind boxes were sold; it also needs to consider profit margins, inventory turnover, and overseas expansion efficiency.
The most critical change is the cooling down of LABUBU, while Star People grew nearly sixfold.
The good news is that POPMART is not completely tied to a single IP; six IPs generated over ¥1 billion in revenue each, which also proves that its incubation system really has substance. But the bad news is that both Asia-Pacific and the Americas are declining, making the domestic market the main support.
Today, Star People takes over, but that doesn't mean it can replicate another LABUBU tomorrow, nor does it mean overseas markets will automatically recover.
So I think POPMART hasn't ended its growth but has shifted from a "blockbuster market" to an "operational test": whether multiple IPs can continuously take over, whether overseas can accelerate again, and whether profits can catch up with revenue.
Next week, Nvidia faces the same situation.
One sells emotional value, the other sells computing power, but both must answer the same question in front of high valuations: after the story is told, can profits still be realized?
$POPMART $ETH $BTC #EarningsObserver: POPMART shifts gears in growth, can multiple IPs take over?Six Key Factors Driving the Current Bitcoin Rally
1. Macro Liquidity: The U.S. Treasury expands long-term bond repurchase operations, long-term U.S. Treasury yields decline, the dollar weakens, market liquidity easing expectations rise, benefiting high-risk assets.
2. Improved Regulatory Expectations: Trump meets with crypto industry executives to promote the passage of the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," the SEC proposes partial registration exemptions for certain digital assets, reducing regulatory uncertainty in the industry.
3. Derivatives Short Squeeze: Long-term range-bound accumulation of large short positions, price breaks key resistance levels triggering concentrated short covering, forming a chain reaction of buy orders and accelerating the rise.
4. Capital Support: Whales and institutions continue to increase spot holdings, spot ETF funds flow back, providing bottom buying support.
5. Market Sentiment Recovery: The fear and greed index rises, risk appetite warms, driving capital back into the crypto sector.
6. Cyclical Fundamentals: Bitcoin's total supply deflationary attribute and the scarcity logic of post-halving chips persist long-term, benefiting large-cycle valuation recovery.
Short-term drivers are mainly news stimuli and short squeeze scenarios; the sustainability of the rise depends on U.S. Treasury liquidity trends, legislative progress, and profit-taking pressure from bulls; mid-to-long-term trends are highly tied to Federal Reserve monetary policy and U.S. crypto legislation progress, overall following the global major asset bull and bear cycles, with volatility significantly higher than traditional assets.