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The Bhutan government's recent move, frankly speaking, is treating Bitcoin as cash.
Yesterday, they transferred 490 BTC (about 32.7 million USD) in one go to a new wallet, with the largest single transfer being 485 BTC. It sounds impressive, but this has actually been their routine operation for over a year — selling off steadily from a peak of 13,000 BTC in 2024 down to just over 3,000 BTC now, a 70% decrease.
Interestingly, the official stance is "no coins sold," but the on-chain data clearly records every transaction, with funds continuously flowing out. This "data contradicting the official statement" is the most noteworthy aspect of this news.
The market impact is actually limited; 30+ million USD is just a drop in the bucket compared to Bitcoin's daily trading volume. But the sentiment signal is more important than the capital flow — after all, the phrase "a sovereign nation is continuously selling" is inherently sensitive in the crypto community. And at this pace, the remaining holdings will be sold off in a few months.
In short, Bhutan is treating Bitcoin as a liquid fiscal tool rather than an appreciating asset. The trend is clear; don't overreact to single transfers, just look at the bigger picture.
$BTC
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ TRX's strength is clearly weaker than BTC and ETH, more like a steady follow-up rise rather than an emotional surge. TRON's core support still lies in stablecoin transfers, on-chain activity, and fee consumption. During market rallies, its elasticity is usually not the highest, but its defensive characteristics are relatively more prominent. Going forward, it depends on whether funds flow back from high-volatility assets to public chains with clearer cash flow and usage scenarios. $TRX $BTC crypto is skyrocketing, while storage stocks have just undergone a severe valuation crash. Both $MU Micron and SK Hynix have experienced significant pullbacks, but the signals coming from the industry side tell a completely different story. Micron recently announced it will invest $10 billion over the next decade in Boise, Idaho, to build Micron Research Labs, focusing on next-generation storage technology, advanced Memory and Compute architectures, advanced packaging, and future semiconductor manufacturing.
What I think is most worth noting about this investment is not the "$10 billion" itself, but that Micron is betting on a trend: the next bottleneck for AI might be shifting from simply lacking GPUs to a combined shortage of computing power, memory, and data transfer.
In the past two years, when people talked about AI hardware, the first reaction was almost always NVIDIA. But as models grow larger and inference calls increase, no matter how fast GPUs compute, if data can't be delivered in time, the expensive computing power will just sit idle.
This is why HBM is becoming increasingly important.
This year, major tech companies are expected to invest at least $630 billion in building AI infrastructure, and Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung have all stated that supply remains tight in the face of rapidly growing demand.
So I won’t conclude that the AI storage cycle is over just because storage stocks have dropped sharply in the short term.
GPUs determine how fast AI can compute, while Memory determines whether that computing power can actually be fully utilized. $HYPE is the native token of the Hyperliquid L1 blockchain. Hyperliquid mainly focuses on high-performance on-chain order book (CLOB) perpetual contract trading, while also supporting spot, HIP-3 RWA/equity/commodity/pre-IPO markets, as well as HyperEVM. It dominates the decentralized perpetual contract space. Executive Summary: HYPE is currently priced at about $74.37, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 6.6-7.3%, a market capitalization of approximately $16.5 billion (ranked 9th-10th), a circulating supply of about 222.4 million tokens (about 23% of total supply), and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of about $74.3 billion. It is only about 3% down from the all-time high of $76.87 on June 16, 2026. Recent strong trend: On August 19-20, boosted by favorable US regulations, it surged over 20% from around $58-62, and rose about 29.5% on the 7th. The platform's trading volume, open interest (OI), and fee performance remain leading but faces pressure from token unlocking and the impact of HIP-3 revenue sharing on protocol revenue. Core judgment: In the short term, technical indicators are strong, approaching previous highs; watch whether it can hold between $70-$72 and break through $77; The medium to long term depends on the implementation of U.S. market access, RWA expansion, and the ability of buying to absorb unlocks. Valuations are no longer cheap, but fundamental support remains strong. Current Market Overview - Price and Performance: Current price $74.37, 24-hour range $68.95-$74.88, 7-dayCORE DAO Series ②｜Why I think Core's “TVL” can't be simply viewed?
Recently, when looking at Core DAO, it's easy to fall into a data trap:
Seeing hundreds of millions of dollars in “TVL,” and then directly concluding:
"The Core ecosystem has already exploded."
I think it needs to be broken down.
Because Core has two completely different figures:
Traditional DeFi TVL
and
BTC Staking / BTCFi asset scale.
The former is actually not very large at present.
DefiLlama currently reports Core DeFi TVL at only a few million dollars.
But on the other hand, the Core ecosystem has disclosed a BTC staking scale of about 2,470 BTC.
These two numbers cannot be conflated.$BTC surged to 75,342, up 8.61% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 75,770. Whether it can hold above 75,000 gives a clear direction: if it can't hold in the short term, it will pull back. The reason is not in the technical pattern but in the fuel. This round of open interest only increased by 3.09%, while the price rose by 8.61%, less than half the growth rate; the funding rate is 0.0077%, longs have hardly paid any premium for this move; the long-short account ratio barely moved from 1.04 to 1.05, retail investors haven't really entered. Altogether, this means: the price was pushed up by shorts capitulating and closing positions, not by new money entering. Shorts are a one-time fuel, once closed, it's gone. Looking above, in nearly 200 days, there have been 44 days closing above 75,000, those people are waiting to break even, so a rebound to this level naturally faces selling pressure. Therefore, my judgment is a pullback, but not a crash—without accumulated leverage, there won't be a cascading liquidation. To overturn this judgment is simple: if open interest clearly catches up and it holds above 75,770, then new money has truly entered. A break below 73,000 confirms the pullback.The recent BTC trend has stunned many, soaring directly from over 60,000 to around 75,000, a cumulative increase of 15%, with extremely volatile swings. ETH also took off, rising over 20% in two days, surpassing $2300.
Behind the market is a fierce short squeeze, with over $1 billion in shorts forcibly liquidated in a single hour, marking the largest liquidation wave since 2021. In 24 hours, the entire network saw over $3 billion liquidated, nearly 180,000 traders wiped out, and a large number of short positions flushed out.
But the question arises: Is this surge the start of a new market trend, or just a pulse triggered by short covering?
On the funding side, institutional inflows are visible. On August 19, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517 million in a single day, a three-month high, with BlackRock alone contributing $285 million. The three-day cumulative inflow is close to $1 billion, indicating this rally is not just retail speculation.
Catalysts are also piling up: Trump meeting with crypto industry executives, signals of regulatory easing, and increased long-term bond repurchases by the U.S. Treasury, multiple positive factors resonating.
However, risks are also prominent. Although there is still room before the historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, the short-term surge has already accumulated a large amount of profit-taking pressure. Standard Chartered maintains an optimistic year-end target of $100,000, but some analysts believe this is just a technical rebound.
My view: There is still momentum in the short term, but chasing the highs carries significant risk. Whether the trend continues depends on whether ETFs can sustain net inflows and whether the 75,000 resistance level can hold. If it holds, the next target is 80,000; if not, expect consolidation around 65,000.
This is just a market opinion exchange and does not constitute investment advice BTC cleared $72K as $3B+ in shorts got wiped out — the second-largest liquidation event since 2021. Volume actually surged too, ~$91B, breaking a three-month lull. Spot demand looks like it's leading, not just leverage unwinding.
Still below the 200-day average though, and ~44K BTC has flowed to exchanges — some holders cashing in. Jackson Hole next week is the real test.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to follow through?
This wave of increase is indeed a bit fast. $BTC has surged from over 60,000 all the way to around 75,000 USD, with a nearly 20% gain in just a few days, and today it even approached 75,000 at one point.
But I think the most important thing to watch now is no longer "how much more it can rise," but whether the funds behind it can keep up.
Currently, it’s not just a pure emotional pull. The US stock Bitcoin ETF has clearly seen renewed capital inflows, with a single-day net inflow of 517 million USD on August 19, indicating that off-exchange funds are indeed returning.
The problem is also obvious: the faster it rises, the more short-term profit-taking there will be. Plus, this round has already seen a large number of shorts liquidated, so the market can easily shift from a "short squeeze rally" to a "bullish relay."
My view: around 75,000 is a very critical level. If BTC can hold steady there and the ETF continues to maintain net inflows, there is still momentum for funds to push higher; but if after the surge the funds can’t keep up, then be cautious of a wave of profit-taking.
So now I won’t be outright bearish just because it’s rising sharply, nor will I blindly chase longs just because it breaks through.
What really determines whether this rally can go far is not how pretty the candlesticks look, but whether there is sustained real money coming in.
From now on, just watch two things: whether BTC can hold above 75,000, and whether ETF funds can continue to flow in.CORE DAO Series ①｜What changes will Core undergo after the bull market starts?
In the past, many people looked at Core DAO and their first reaction was:
"Another L1."
But I believe this positioning is becoming outdated.
What truly deserves attention is that Core is trying to become:
The yield layer for BTC / BTCFi infrastructure.
This means Core's core logic is shifting from:
BTC → Core → DeFi
to:
BTC → BTC Staking → lstBTC → BTCFi → Yield → CORE value capture
These two logics have completely different valuation models.
Currently, Core's traditional DeFi TVL is actually not large; what really needs attention is BTC staking.
The ecosystem has disclosed that the native BTC staking scale has already reached about 2,470 BTC.
So when evaluating Core, you can't just look at the usual L1 metrics:
• TVL
• TPS
• Active addresses
• DEX trading volume
You should pay more attention to:
How much BTC is entering Core?
Because if the future BTC bull market truly kicks off, BTC holders will develop an increasingly strong demand:
"Besides price appreciation, can my BTC generate yield?"
This is exactly Core's opportunity. Exploding❗ Samsung is about to launch the largest shareholder return plan in the history of Korean companies. $SAMSUNG According to informed media sources, Samsung Electronics will officially announce a major shareholder return plan this Friday, with a total scale of up to 110 trillion KRW, equivalent to 79 billion USD, with an estimated range of 90-110 trillion KRW. The board meeting is scheduled to be held after the Korean stock market closes, and the full details will be announced immediately after. The news has already ignited the market. On Thursday, Samsung surged more than 9% in a single day, and continued to rise 3.14% during intraday trading after opening on Friday. The market got an early tip: Samsung plans to return 50% of free cash flow to shareholders, mainly in the form of cash dividends, while also discussing the distribution of special dividends. The underlying logic behind this bold move: 1. AI storage dividends, earning huge profits. In Q2 2026, Samsung directly set a new record for single-quarter profit, with an operating profit of 89.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 1814%. Almost all profits come from the explosive demand for AI server high-bandwidth storage chips, holding a massive amount of cash. 2. Competitive pressure from SK Hynix. Just this Wednesday, SK Hynix took the lead in proposing a 40 trillion KRW stock buyback plan. The two storage giants have started a shareholder return competition; if Samsung's move is too small, funds will easily flow to Hynix. 3. Long-term undervaluation forcing management concessions. For a long time, Samsung's dividend payout ratio has been low, holding large cash flows, but shareholders received very limited returns. After making big money in the AI cycle, institutional investors strongly urgeLet me show you the real power of the debt reduction master, Old Xian and his wife. Many people talk about US debt focusing on yields, but the true strength of the debt reduction master lies in the net price. The chart below shows the net price of 30-year US Treasury bonds; the price issued in 2020 was 100, and now the net price is 47.
Who bought the 100-dollar long-term US bonds in 2020? Japan, the UK, and these allied suckers. The US version of YCC by the debt reduction master essentially means that when these allied suckers can no longer hold on, funds are massively shifted out from short-term debt to buy back and cancel the long-term bonds halved to 47. Buying low and selling high nets a profit of 53. This is basically telling the old and new players on Wall Street that the iron bottom for US Treasury net price is 47, and above that, you can freely harvest those allied sucker bonds without fear of being bitten back.
Some say Old Xian's quota is only 4 billion, which is useless against the total debt of 40 trillion. Then I ask, during 9/24, how much was the securities swap facility thrown out by the Fed? 500 billion. What is the total market cap of the big A shares in 2024? 8.5 trillion. Do you believe it? Is the real power of 9/24 really 500 billion? Obviously not. The real value of 9/24 is the Fed's statement, "If it's not enough, we can add more."BTC re-enters 70K, now the key is price holding power after the short squeeze energy is exhausted. Is there actually buying power defending 70K after the short liquidations end? The key facts confirmed from the original post are as follows. - BTC surged from about 64K to recover 70K. - In this process, more than $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated, acting as the upward momentum. - The current point is where the short squeeze effect is cooling down, and confirming support at 70K will determine the next step. A short squeeze is a structural feedback where forced liquidation of derivative positions leads to spot buying. The $2.7 billion short liquidation created temporary buying pressure, but this was not spontaneous market demand but forced position closure. Therefore, whether spot buying defending 70K appears after the liquidations end is the turning point for trend continuation. If 70K turns into support, the 71K-72K range, where short positions have accumulated again, could be the next target. Conversely, if 70K breaks down, this rise will be temporary due to leverage liquidation The scale keeps expanding, but the speed of making money has clearly slowed down. Has POPMART started to decline? It's reasonable to be bearish in the long term!
The most interesting part of the semi-annual report is not that revenue is still growing, but that income grew by 23.8%, while profit only increased by 10.1%.
In simple terms, the business is still growing, but the speed of making money can no longer keep up with revenue growth.
LABUBU went to the World Cup, but POPMART's growth has clearly shifted gears!
THE MONSTERS, which owns LABUBU, had revenue of ¥4.45 billion in the first half of the year, down 7.5% year-on-year.
But Star People exploded directly, with revenue of ¥2.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 580.6%, instantly becoming the second largest IP.
This actually exposes POPMART's real problem now: POPMART needs to constantly create the next LABUBU.
If an IP becomes popular, the company grows rapidly; if the IP cools down, growth shifts gears accordingly, so the valuation naturally becomes more dependent on "the next hit."
But if Star People, plush products, and more IPs can continue to take over, then POPMART is selling not just individual toys, but a capability to continuously create hits.
What needs to be watched now is not whether LABUBU can become popular again.
But whether POPMART can prove that it is not making money from just one IP, but truly has the ability to continuously create IPs. However, this seems not so easy to achieve!
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $POPMART Fundamental Research Report $XLM / Stellar (Established/Litecoin lineage) $3.20
Essentially: Stellar ($XLM) overall score 49/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
Stellar (token $XLM), an established project in the Litecoin lineage track. Focused on cross-border payments as a veteran player. Competitors include XRP and TRX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, with users lacking data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500 per month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User metrics: MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized—no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing referenced from PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales from whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration evidenced by API/SDK access (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparisons): circulating market cap: Stellar $3.00B, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. FDV: Stellar $4.20B, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Annual revenue: Stellar $2.00M, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Stellar undisclosed, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view doubles revenue, burn implementation, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources for reference only, not investment advice. Indicator deviations over 30% require reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitBTC quietly returned to $72,700 last night, but what really concerned me was that after it surged, it didn't drop immediately like before. Have you noticed that US stocks are falling and crypto is rising—this kind of decoupling has happened several times in a row. Last night, the Nasdaq fell about 1% again, the S&P dropped 0.87%, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and oil prices remained high. The easing momentum brought by the Ministry of Finance's previous buybacks seems to be fading. Traditional markets are clearly catching their breath, but crypto seems not to hear—BTC still rose about 4% in 24 hours. This is no small matter; it shows that the money spent buying crypto and the money spent on US stocks may no longer be exactly the same group. - Funding preferences are quietly shifting: shifting from "following US stocks" to "independent narrative-driven" - Policy is an important source of confidence: The CLARITY Act continues to advance, and the White House met with crypto industry leaders two days ago, showing sentiment still holding the bottom - ETH broke through $2,300 yesterday, showing more resilience than BTC and starting to find its own rhythm - XRP rose over 12% in 24 hours last night, BNB and LINK followed suit, and funds are clearly spreading outward from BTC I watched the market yesterday, The biggest takeaway is: BTC is responsible for stabilizing the position, ETH is probing the market, and altcoins are responsible for creating profit-making effects. This kind of clear-division market is often healthier than a one-sided rally, because it shows that funds are not panic-driven grouping, but selectively allocating positions. But there are a few points I want to remind myself and also remind you: 🔥BTC surged from 64,000 to 75,000 in three days: This rally wasn’t driven by Trump alone, stop blaming the wrong person
$BTC
On August 21 intraday, BTC surged near $75,000, fluctuating repeatedly between 74,594 and 75,120, with a cumulative three-day increase of about 15%. But if you only look at the White House crypto summit and think this rally is a “Trump bull run,” you’re being deceived by appearances—this wave is a three-layer structure exploding together:
Bond market ignited first: On August 19, the U.S. Treasury doubled the repurchase scale of 10–30 year long bonds “at least,” pushing long-term yields down; on the same day, BTC started its breakout from 64,000. The logic is “pressing the long end = loosening liquidity = risk asset revaluation.”
ETF followed up with aggressive buying: From August 17–19, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1 billion over three consecutive days, with $517 million on August 19 alone, a three-month high. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $285 million, with total historical net inflows surpassing $61.6 billion.
On-chain accumulation has been quietly happening: According to CryptoQuant data, over the past 60 days, large holders have net increased their BTC holdings by about 43,000 BTC ≈ $2.75 billion; mid-sized holders with 100–1,000 BTC and super whales holding over 10,000 BTC are buying simultaneously. This isn’t retail FOMO; it’s a structure laid near 60,000. $BTC This round of crypto market rebound stems from funds prematurely betting on expectations of Fed rate cuts. All the major macro data for this week has been released, fully realizing expectations. The Fed's minutes were hawkish, combined with employment and manufacturing data being much stronger than expected, shattering hopes of rapid rate cuts. High interest rates are expected to persist for a longer period, and the core logic supporting this round of rally no longer exists. After a sustained rally, the market has accumulated a large amount of short-term profit-taking. Following the market rule of buying expectations and selling facts, lacking new positive catalysts, profit-taking funds have taken profits and exited, providing a foundation for a market correction. On the market front, BTC's previous rise was driven by short closing positions, incremental buying is fading, upward momentum is drying up, and the downward trend is likely to absorb unrealized gains. ETH closely follows BTC's trend, and its pullback is more elastic during the downside. Most altcoins will follow the broader market pullback; A few well-structured assets like TRUMP have opportunities for localized independent market movements but cannot withstand the risk of systemic market declines. Although several crypto policies are still awaiting advancement, the bills are easily delayed and only provide a temporary market impulse, making it difficult to change the current macroeconomic pressure. Market strategy summary: 1. Macro expectations have been realized, upward momentum has disappeared, and the short-term pullback window has officially opened. Do not blindly chase highs. 2. At this stage, prioritize preventing systemic risks, appropriately reduce positions, and avoid selling pressure from high-level chips. 3. Closely monitor key BTC support levels; if support holds, the market will enter range-bound consolidation; Once it effectively breaks below the threshold, a deeper correction will begin. 4. Even if you favor knockoffs with independent logic, you still need toLAB real-time market data analysis on August 21 at 13:45
Current price is $0.0842, with a 24-hour increase of about +4.13%. After the panic crash caused by large-scale token concentration deposits to exchanges in the previous period, the current situation is a weak rebound after overselling, with overall weak rebound volume.
Key price levels: first support at 0.0775, strong support at 0.0710‑0.0730; short-term resistance at 0.0912 (intraday high). After breaking through, the upper target is in the 0.103‑0.108 range.
Contract level: The contract turnover in the past 24 hours has shrunk significantly compared to the previous peak, indicating low short-term capital participation willingness. The on-site long-short ratio slightly favors longs, mostly short-term funds speculating on oversold rebounds. Long-term main funds have not yet returned. The market shows frequent spikes and extremely high volatility risk.
Capital level: Previously, large addresses related to the project consolidated tokens accounting for nearly 43.4% of the circulating supply and deposited them to exchanges, leaving a psychological shadow of continuous selling pressure on the market and damaging long-term capital confidence. This rebound is mainly driven by trapped funds entering to speculate on oversold recovery. Without new major narrative catalysts, it is difficult to restart the previous main upward trend. To initiate a new round of sustained rally, large-scale selling pressure needs to be absorbed, and new narrative hotspots must emerge to take over.
Overall, at this stage, it is only an oversold rebound with insufficient bullish momentum. The market fluctuates repeatedly, and the risk of chasing highs has significantly increased.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ENA is considered by Arthur Hayes as a 5x play this season, what could be the driving force?
From the bottom at 0.07 I mentioned on 8/13, $ENA has now bounced up to 0.1251, increasing over 7% in just one session, confirming the point that after a 90% drop from the peak, it only takes capital flow returning to trigger a strong rebound.
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch The U.S. Treasury may repurchase more than $4 billion each period, and a rare change is beginning to appear in the U.S. Treasury market. The U.S. Treasury just increased the repurchase scale of 10–30 year bonds from about $2 billion to at least $4 billion each period. Today, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen clearly stated: if necessary, this number can continue to rise. Why should Crypto pay attention to this? Because the current problem in the U.S. is not short-term interest rates, but that long-term borrowing is becoming increasingly expensive. The 30-year Treasury yield recently surged to near the highest level since 2007, putting pressure on mortgages, corporate financing, and tech stock valuations. What the Treasury is doing now, simply put, is buying back long-term bonds to try to push down long-end yields. This is also one of the important macro backgrounds for BTC's recent sudden acceleration: long bond yields falling, the dollar weakening, and funds being more willing to re-enter gold and Crypto. But there is a very big conflict here: after the Treasury's repurchase, the 30-year yield rebounded to about 5.25%, and the 10-year yield is also around 4.71%. This indicates the market is saying: $4 billion can save liquidity but cannot solve the $40 trillion U.S. debt and high inflation. So what we really need to watch next is not "how much more the Treasury will buy." Rather: if repurchases continue to expand, can long bond yields truly be pushed down? If they can be suppressed, the macro environment for BTC and gold will continue to improve; if not, this rally will face high interest rate pressure again Pop Mart’s latest results tell a more complicated story. 📊
Revenue hit ¥17.17B, up 23.8%, but net profit rose only 10.1%—growth is still strong, but profitability is slowing.
The bigger question is whether new IPs like Star People can fill the gap as LABUBU cools off. Six IPs generating over ¥100M is encouraging, but overseas weakness shows the global expansion story still needs proof.
Pop Mart is growing, but the next stage is about IP durability, margins, and overseas execution. #财报观察员: Pop Mart shifts gears in growth, can multiple IPs take over?
A cliff-like 12% plunge: Baidu kills its own “cash cow,” is AI this powerful medicine a cure or poison?
Baidu has delivered a financial report that makes people break out in a cold sweat.
Once the report was released, the US stock market immediately responded with a clean and sharp drop—pre-market and subsequent trading days saw the stock price plunge 12.7%.
The air is filled with the sour taste of “tears of the times.”
Looking only at the surface numbers, total revenue was ¥31.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 4%, seemingly still within a “pain zone” that people can barely accept. But if you flip to the core business page of the report, you’ll find the real blow hidden beneath the surface:
The once rock-solid, day-and-night milk-producing “cash cow”—online marketing service revenue (i.e., advertising)—plummeted 19%, down to only ¥13.1 billion.
Meanwhile, Baidu App’s monthly active users (MAU) have slid from their past peak to about 640 million.
On one side, AI business is booming in the report, with infrastructure fully deployed; on the other, traditional advertising business is hemorrhaging precipitously.
This scene is like a middle-aged man biting the bullet to keep up with the youth trend, smashing the luxury car that made him wealthy and replacing it with an electric-burning race car.
To survive the life-and-death trial of the AI era, it had to personally slaughter its own advertising cash cow to sacrifice for that uncertain future. $BTC DOGE's recent surge is a textbook whale trap: first sweeping stop losses on short positions between 0.071–0.076, then a spike up to 0.0835, with social media shouting "breakout" to lure retail investors to chase higher.
On-chain data shows an average buy-in at 0.0835, with all the chasing volume buried above; old whales' semi-dormant addresses are transferring coins to exchanges, and spot taker sell volume is outweighing buy volume.
60%–70% of circulating supply is held by fewer than 200 giant whales. This is not a resistance breakout but a liquidity-driven dump to rescue positions.
Chasing above 0.0835 means paying whales a bailout fee; only if the price holds above 0.071 on the pullback is it worth watching.Yili Hua: Bitcoin Has Ended the Bear Market Trend, Still Bullish for the Next Two Weeks
Yili Hua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), wrote that since judging the rebound ended in May, his main focus over the past two months has been one thing: July to August may be the last bottom-fishing opportunity for this BTC cycle. With Bitcoin's daily chart strongly breaking through the 120-day and 200-day moving averages, and the weekly chart breaking through the 20-week moving average, the BTC bear market trend has officially ended.
He stated that the market is still bullish for the next two weeks, but a pullback may occur after rising to a certain level. The subsequent pullback will not exceed 50% of the rise. If investors use leverage, it is recommended to close long positions and refer to the weekly chart trends and pullback ranges during the 2023 bull cycle.
In this cycle, Bitcoin fell from a high of 126,000 USD to 57,000 USD, a maximum drop of about 56%. He believes this drop has formed a cycle low, and it will be difficult for the market to see BTC prices starting with 50,000 USD again.$BTC I just used floating profits to add several more positions in batches. To start with the conclusion: this time is not illogical, but the logic is only halfway done—the direction is well-founded, the position is aggressive, the risk structure has clearly deteriorated, and the risk-reward ratio is inadequate. From the market perspective, the 1-hour and 15-minute moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, with the PDI significantly above the MDI, and the trend has not yet reversed; The 5-minute price is still holding near WMA20. Therefore, I am not betting against the trend by following the trend. But the problem lies in timing. This increase occurred near the 75,200–75,300 resistance zone. After a brief 15-minute spike to 75,494, it quickly pulled back, indicating that the selling pressure above has not been truly digested. Meanwhile, the 1-hour RSI is around 76.5, indicating a strong but somewhat hot state. Adding positions now feels more like rushing to break through previous highs and below, rather than waiting for a pullback after the breakout is confirmed. The changes in position positions are even more noteworthy: the original nominal position amount was about 19,230, which expanded to about 32,092 after the addition, an increase of nearly 67%; The average opening price rose from about 75,188.9 to 75,213.8, and the breakeven price increased to about 75,289.2. Most importantly, the strong flat line has moved up from 73,759.9 to 74,510.4. Based on the current 75,130 points, the original strong flattening buffer was about 1,370 points, now down to about 620 points, reducing the safety margin by approximately 55%. On the surface, I am using floating profits to increase my position, but in reality, I am returning the safety cushion I have already gained back to the market. Floating Excess Never Was"🚀 $DOGE — LONG SETUP 🟢
📍 Entry: 0.08256
🎯 TP1: 0.08450
🎯 TP2: 0.08700
🎯 TP3: 0.09100
🛑 SL: 0.07950
The bullish structure remains intact as buyers defend the entry zone. A renewed momentum push could send DOGE toward the next resistance levels. Stay disciplined and manage risk.#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch BTC just ripped from $64K to $73K, while ETH pushed above $2,340. And the liquidation numbers are insane: around $3.3B wiped out, with shorts making up roughly 92% of the damage. 🔥
But don’t get trapped by the “$160B entered the market” narrative.
This looks much more like a massive short squeeze than a wave of fresh spot capital. Forced short covering can make the chart look unstoppable—until the forced buying runs out.
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
I think the current wave of rally has a somewhat shaky fund relay.
Rising from 64,000 to 75,000 in three days looks fierce, but I think it’s more like shorts being collectively buried (over $3 billion in short liquidations), pushed up by passive buying, not real money chasing.
Several key signals are not good:
1. No significant new long positions entering in perpetual contracts, the short squeeze engine is about to stall.
2. On the ETF side, although over $500 million flowed in a single day, overall it’s still at a floating loss (average price around 82,000), so the pressure to sell to break even remains.
3. Short-term holders have already started transferring coins to exchanges to lock in profits.
Trading suggestions:
- Bitcoin: Don’t chase the highs. I think a light long position can be tried on a pullback to the 70,400-70,800 range, targeting around 72,500, with a firm stop loss below 69,500.
- Ethereum: Follow Bitcoin but with greater volatility. If Bitcoin holds steady, Ethereum’s support near 2,200 can be watched for a rebound.
Next, focus on spot buying and ETF net inflows; if they don’t pick up, this wave is likely just a pulse move.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin broke through $70,000 on August 20, reaching a new high since early June, and once climbed above $72,000. As of August 21, BTC's highest point reached about $73,800, with a weekly increase expanding to about 17%.
🚀 Why the sudden surge?
1. U.S. Treasury repo lowers long-term yields
The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repos, causing the 30-year yield to fall from its high. The decline in interest rates improves liquidity expectations, attracting funds to "hard assets" like gold and Bitcoin.
2. Trump strengthens crypto policy expectations
Trump urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act and signaled the government might further purchase Bitcoin, significantly reducing market uncertainty about U.S. crypto regulation.
3. Short sellers forced to cover, accelerating the rise
After BTC broke through key round-number resistance, a large number of short stops/liquidations were triggered, further amplifying the rally. Data shows daily crypto market short liquidations reached billions of dollars. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over? Personal opinion
BTC has entered a short-term accelerated rally phase, with the market showing obvious short squeeze characteristics. A large number of short positions have been liquidated, passively pushing up the coin price, which has quickly warmed the overall market risk sentiment. However, whether the rally can continue depends not on the short-term gains but on whether incremental funds can take over the baton after the short squeeze.
Part of the momentum for this round of rise comes from short covering. A large number of previously accumulated short orders were triggered for forced liquidation at key resistance levels, and the buybacks from closing positions created a positive feedback loop that amplified the gains. This is a battle of existing funds, not a new influx of long positions. The encouraging sign is that spot ETFs have seen a phase of inflows, with large net inflows in a single day, and institutional buying has returned, providing real support for the market. But it is important to distinguish that a single-day large inflow is different from sustained capital entry; one large inflow cannot be equated directly with a complete reversal of the capital trend.
Currently, the market has formed obvious divergences. The optimistic view holds that regulatory bill expectations combined with marginal easing of macro inflation, loosening of high US Treasury yields, and reopening of the crypto asset allocation window will lead to ETF funds warming up and starting a new main upward trend. The cautious view warns that after the short squeeze rally, a large amount of short positions have been cleared, and there are no more shorts to provide passive buying. If ETF inflows quickly decline, it will be difficult to maintain the high levels relying only on retail sentiment, and after short-term overbought conditions, a profit-taking pullback pressure may come at any time. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ There might be some good news for those looking to withdraw funds; you might want to wait a little longer.
┈➤ 800 billion RMB is about to be selectively released.
First, this is not QE, nor is it a liquidity injection. But the funds come from idle commercial bank reserves, so there will be some liquidity released.
Second, the scale of 800 billion RMB is quite small, so its impact on the exchange rate will be minimal.
Third, this portion of funds is targeted for the AI and digital economy sectors, so it may not flow into the international market.
Fourth, however, this could have some effect on market sentiment and expectations.
To recall, last year this policy-driven fund release started in late September and was completed by the end of October. At the same time, the Fed cut interest rates in September last year, with expectations of further cuts in Q4. Between September 24 and October 24 last year, the USD/CNY exchange rate did see a slight upward movement.
Last year 500 billion was released; this year it's 800 billion. The US is unlikely to cut rates this year.
┈➤ The US Treasury is accelerating the buyback of US debt.
From September 9 to November 4, this action, while not enough to completely reverse the dollar's trend, should have some short-term impact.
┈➤ The trend of USDT
Last year, U/USD traded mostly at a premium; this year, it has mostly been at a discount. The price of U is also related to market conditions. BTC has broken $75,000, and USDT is also showing an upward trend.
In summary, U is not guaranteed to rise 100%, but at least in the short term (within one month), it should stabilize.After the rapid surge and celebration of BTC, how much longer can the funds continue to follow through?
$BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
The low-volatility market that had been silent for months was completely ended overnight.
BTC powerfully broke through multiple layers of resistance, standing above the $75,000 mark, tearing apart the long-term narrow-range consolidation pattern. The most direct driver of this surge was a large-scale short squeeze, with nearly $3 billion liquidated across the entire network within 24 hours. A large number of crowded short positions were forced to stop losses, causing passive buying to flood in and forcibly pushing the price higher.
The positive factors are not limited to contract short squeezes; spot funds have already genuinely flowed back. On August 19, the net inflow of BTC+ETH spot ETFs in the US market reached as high as $706 million in a single day. Institutional buying, absent for a long time, re-entered the market, laying a spot foundation for this round of rise, no longer just a fleeting spike driven by contract leverage.
However, market divergences are now fully exposed:
Some are confident this is a trend recovery brought by a regulatory turning point and liquidity warming, with the consolidation bottom completely finished and a new upward cycle beginning;
Others remain highly cautious, believing this is merely a short-term overextension of a squeeze. Once the shorts are fully liquidated, without new funds to follow, volume will lag, profit-taking at high levels will occur, and the market could easily see a significant pullback.
We need to recognize two core key points:
1. The first wave of this rally was mostly driven by short covering. Now that many low-position shorts have exited, continuing strength must rely on sustained net inflows from ETFs, incremental stablecoin funds, and retail off-exchange capital working together.
2. If volume continues to shrink and market heat fades, the long-position leverage accumulated at high levels will become the fuse for a new round of intense volatility, greatly increasing the risk of a sharp pullback after the surge.
Core practical strategy for the future:
Do not blindly chase the acceleration. Holders should gradually set break-even stop profits to protect hard-earned gains; observers need not rush to enter, but wait for a pullback to key support and clear volume structure before judging opportunities.
The celebration will eventually pause. The faster the market moves, the more we need to steady the pace and rationally view this surge, avoiding letting short-term frenzy disrupt trading rhythm.
Risk reminder: The content is for market analysis and communication only and does not constitute any investment advice Market Observation:
Such consistent ETF net inflows haven't been seen for a long time.
I was focused on watching the market, trading, and chasing news the past few days, which made me overlook the ETF capital flows.
Looking back, before BTC started on August 19, there was actually a very clear signal:
BTC, ETH, and SOL all showed ETF net inflows simultaneously.
And around 8 PM that same day, BTC officially started its move.
Looking back today, the signal has become even clearer.
Besides BTC, ETH, and SOL, related ETF funds like HYPE, LINK, DOGE, and XRP have also successively shown net inflows.
ETF Signal:
The key is not how much capital flows into a single coin, but that the funds are starting to show directional consistency.
This phenomenon often appears when market risk appetite noticeably warms up and capital re-embraces crypto assets.
Of course, ETF net inflows don't mean the market will only rise without falling, but at least it shows institutional funds are not clearly retreating and are instead supporting trend continuation.
Capital Flow:
Overall, current funds show a certain resonance characteristic:
* BTC, ETH, and SOL are the first to show sustained net inflows
* Then it spreads to mainstream and hot assets like HYPE, LINK, DOGE, and XRP
* Funds are no longer acting on isolated points but flowing synchronously at the sector level
This "diffusive inflow" usually means market sentiment is shifting from cautious to positive.
Trading Strategy:
So my core idea at this stage is simple:
$BTC $OKB $SOL
Do not short against the trend.
Do not short against the trend.
Do not short against the trend.
Unless there is a clear reversal signal on the chart, there is no need to easily bet on a top due to short-term fluctuations.
Operationally, I prefer to wait for BTC to pull back before going long:
* Small divergence, watch for support
* Large divergence, wait for a second test
* After confirming the second test, wait for consolidation breakout
As long as the trend is intact, following the trend is more important than guessing the top.
The above is only my personal trading record and market observation #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Ford in 2026 is doing something very similar to what it did 120 years ago: moving mature manufacturing capabilities into a newly emerging large market. This time, the target is no longer limited to automobiles. In May this year, Ford officially launched Ford Energy, planning to invest about $2 billion to convert existing battery capacity in Kentucky into an energy storage system factory, with deliveries starting at the end of 2027 and a target annual capacity of at least 20 GWh. Customers include power companies, data centers, and large industrial enterprises. Subsequently, it signed a five-year framework agreement with EDF Power Solutions, under which the latter can purchase up to 4 GWh annually, with a potential total of 20 GWh over five years. AI data centers compete for electricity, and the global grid needs to absorb more wind and solar power; energy storage has transformed from a new energy accessory to a fundamental infrastructure for the digital economy. Battery factories, once burdened by electric vehicle investments, now have an outlet toward AI capital expenditures. Ford's revenue in Q2 this year was $48.3 billion, with adjusted EBIT of $2.5 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase; adjusted free cash flow was $2.1 billion, and total liquidity exceeded $43 billion. The company also raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10 billion to $11 billion. These figures look like the normal financial report of a long-established industrial company. Rewind to 2008, Ford was uncertain even whether it could keep the blue oval trademark. The king of assembly lines was first trapped by its own scale. 1908Reasons for Bitcoin's surge! Found it!!! $BTC
This wave seems inexplicable but is actually the result of three combined factors:
1. Too many shorts, this wave directly turned into a short squeeze
In the past few months, Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to just over $60,000, with almost every rebound being crushed.
After such a long decline, the market formed a very consistent consensus:
A rebound means shorting.
So short positions became increasingly crowded, and leverage piled up higher and higher.
The problem is, when everyone is shorting, little do they realize that forced liquidation = buying to close long positions = pushing prices up 📈
After BTC broke through, the first batch of high-leverage shorts started liquidating. Short liquidations mean the trading platform must buy back BTC to close positions, so:
Price rises → short liquidations → forced buying → continued rise → more short liquidations. 🫣
⸻
2. A bigger catalyst from the U.S. Treasury
Recently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields surged, and the market's biggest concern was tightening liquidity.
As a result, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, the single liquidity support repo limit for bonds over 10 years will be raised from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, continuing until early November.
This move actually injects liquidity into the market:
Treasury yields fall → dollar weakens → U.S. stocks (risk assets) rise → cryptocurrencies rise. 📈
The reason is simple: when bank interest rates are high, you don't want to invest in risk assets; conversely, low bank interest rates force you to invest and consume 🤓
⸻
3. Trump's late-stage move 🤨
Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Payward, Blockchain, etc., at the White House, reiterating the push to make the U.S. a global digital asset hub.
The SEC also proposed new crypto asset regulations: digital asset projects raising less than xxx in the U.S. are not considered illegal fundraising 🤡
What further stimulated the market was:
Trump said he would consider the regulators' suggestion for the government to increase Bitcoin holdings.
Whether this will actually happen remains to be seen, but for market sentiment, the signal is already clear:
U.S. policy toward Crypto is still moving in a more friendly direction.
Believe in Trump's TACO!!!First, SK Hynix pushed 24.07 million shares onto the board, betting on a sacrifice: 40 trillion KRW is not an expense, but an added permanently mobile pawn chain for the opponent's camp. On Samsung's side, the 9.8 trillion annual dividend is just a routine king-side castling; the real killer move is hidden in the phrase "50% return on cumulative FCF over three years"—that's the promotion tactic buried in the rear pawn formation.
Where is the game? The middle game. AI memory demand is like a pawn advancing straight down the file, its speed changing the entire board's valuation coordinates. Market rumors say Samsung holds a plan worth hundreds of trillions, but the official line is "under review, no set timeline." A grandmaster hears this as: before the real move, he has already chosen his straight flush in the endgame.
Amateurs ask: "Can cash flow simultaneously feed expansion and returns?" Professionals only watch the clock and ask another question: who will transform first in this move?
SK Hynix chooses this moment to cancel capital stock, like actively exchanging the queen in the center, simplifying the board into a king-and-pawn endgame with mutual restrictions; Samsung refuses to reveal its bottom cards, using two bishops to guard two diagonals, luring the opponent's pawns past the fourth rank before counter-capturing. Cash flow is equivalent to initiative: if you don't stack it into offense, it becomes a lone rear pawn you must constantly defend.
And the AI storage board always has only sixty-four squares. The two giants suppress each other on the same pawn chain; one raises its valuation through buybacks, the other stabilizes the king's castle with dividends. Capital only watches who checkmates first. If that hundred-trillion plan is real, it's Samsung's long check cycle; if just a rumor, SK Hynix's sacrificed piece will become a textbook example. Professionals don't predict; they only choose in which endgame to finish.
Samsung is still thinking long. But thinking long is not waiting.
Those afraid to die open with a pawn move; those who will win blindly reach for the pawn about to promote. #SamsungToFollowHynix The barricades still hang the sign "Hot-selling Global Assets," but the safes in the underground vault have already started to pull back—the foreign official institutions added 16 billion to the Fed's foreign reverse repo pool within a week, pushing the total to 373 billion, the highest level since October 2022. This skyscraper called the "Global Financial System" is undergoing a visibly noticeable load transfer. Structural engineers know well that the most dangerous signal in inspection reports is never the swaying of the wind but a sudden change in the moisture content of the foundation soil.
This 56 billion USD is like an undercurrent flushed out from your home's toilet, not flowing into anyone's renovation budget. The foreign reverse repo tool is a settlement observation point only understood by the Fed's forty-year-old supervisors. International major owners who don't buy US bonds, don't dismantle physical projects, and don't increase holdings in money market funds, but put money intact into the reverse repo cement tank, are telling the market: "Brothers, I'm not starting construction; your tower cranes on the site can spin freely, but my money is going back to the safe vault to chill with the air conditioning."
Builders call this a "structural shift in capital risk aversion." The global USD liquidity construction site has underground pipelines more intricate than the blueprints. When the FIMA reverse repo pool doesn't rise, those dollars are working as labor and building materials elsewhere; now, adding 56 billion back in a week means the safety cushion of the entire peripheral market has been pulled away by three inches. Look at those so-called "strong stocks" and "tokenized US equity" K-lines still drawing beautiful load-bearing column patterns, but their reinforcement ratios are quietly being downgraded.
Some will tell you "this is just cash reallocation by foreign official institutions, not affecting US domestic liquidity," which is like a construction foreman explaining to the owner why the rebar spacing exceeds the code. The Fed's balance sheet of over 30 trillion and nearly 400 billion in reverse repo balances are like the lateral pressure on your basement's retaining wall—it doesn't care which side the wall faces, only whether water has entered the soil inside. Where the money flows out from, and under what name it is deposited, affects the equivalent seismic rating of the entire risk asset.
For targets like $xAMZN, watching its daily chart is like standing on an unfinished floor looking at the skyline: a panoramic view of urban sentiment. But we builders don't look at the curtain wall reflections; on rainy days, we touch the moisture of the load-bearing walls. That 56 billion is the first rain. When the basement water level rises, all projects claiming "deep foundations" must re-enter the site for pile foundation testing. Foreign central banks' USD cash is the world's most sensitive design reviewer; they pull funds back from all other options and stack them in the Fed's steel-reinforced safe—translated into engineering language, this action is a "design change": the reinforcement acceptance of peripheral assets was downgraded by one seismic intensity overnight.
So don't just look at the brightly lit tower cranes above ground; look at how much force the underground anchor plates are bearing. The 373 billion reverse repo balance is not observation data; it is water poured into the settlement box of the entire building. The water level is still rising.
#ImpactCycle·Monthly #MacroLiquidity·ForeignRRP #$3,730B·TwoWeeks+$56B #fearandgreedindex$ENA surged significantly today. Many people might wonder why this coin is rising so sharply. Essentially, it's because the crypto market is currently on the rise. $ENA earns funding fees; when the market is good, shorts pay higher fees, and when the market is weak, shorts pay lower fees. If you believe the market will continue to rise, you can definitely chase this coin higher. If you think the market won't continue to rise, then chasing it now is not a very wise move. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that its open interest is continuously increasing, but the long-short ratio is steadily decreasing. This means that currently, a large amount of capital is shorting. Looking at a longer timeframe, we find that the long-short ratio has dropped to a very low bottom, while open interest has risen to a very high level. This indicates that the market sentiment is dominated by shorts at the moment. Under these circumstances, chasing higher is not recommended. —————————————————— I don't want to chase $ENA higher. There are two reasons. One is that I don't believe the market will keep rising, and the other is that the current market sentiment is bearish. I also don't want to short this coin because it hasn't risen much at all—only about twenty to thirty points from the bottom to this level. Shorting wouldn't yield much profit.我坚定持有 $UNI 和 $AAVE —— 逢低买入，一路拿到牛市到来，目标至少是 50 到 100 倍的回报。这是我人生翻盘的最后一个机会，我必须管住手，管住手，再管住手。如果这次再错过这个确定性极高的机会，这辈子可能就真的没有下一次了。我要稳住心态，绝不能被熊市的恐慌吓跑，半途而废。 这段表态在散户圈里很有代表性，但作为市场观察者，我们得冷静拆解一下。首先，50 到 100 倍的预期建立在“牛市必然到来”且“选中的代币能跑赢大盘”的双重假设上。历史数据显示，像 UNI 和 AAVE 这样的蓝筹 DeFi 协议，在上轮牛市中确实有过数十倍的涨幅，但那是从极低市值起步，且伴随整个生态的爆发式增长。当前它们的市值基数已经大了不少，要重现同样的倍数，难度呈几何级数上升。 其次，“逢低买入”听起来简单，执行起来却极其考验纪律。真正的底部往往是事后才知道的，抄底抄在半山腰是常态。这位投资者反复强调“管住手”，恰恰说明情绪管理是最大的敌人。熊市里的每一次反弹都可能像陷阱，每一次暴跌都可能是黄金坑，没有一套基于基本面和风险承受能力的策略，单靠意志力硬扛，很容易在黎明前倒下。 从基本面看，UNI 和In my view, the most noteworthy news about Nvidia recently isn't how many chips it has sold, but that it is trying to transform "computing power" into a type of infrastructure asset that Wall Street is willing to finance long-term. If this change really works, NVIDIA will not only be a device supplier but will increasingly act as one of the designers of the entire AI capital expenditure cycle. On August 10, NVIDIA announced it would establish an independent computing power financing platform with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR, aiming to gradually mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital in the future to build AI infrastructure. Let's clarify the most easily misunderstood point: this is not the $500 billion already credited to Nvidia's account, nor is it the confirmed sales revenue. The official statement is that multiple platforms "mobilize" capital in the future, and each specific project still requires independent evaluation by the financier for customers, utilization, cash flow, and residual value. My judgment is that this arrangement truly addresses the payment methods for AI data centers. In the past, clients had to first invest huge amounts of capital to purchase servers, land, electricity, and cooling systems; If computing power equipment can be packaged as assets with long-term contracts and predictable usage fees, like airplanes, logistics warehouses, or energy projects, builders can split large one-off expenditures into longer-term financing. Lowering the financing threshold will allow more projects to start earlier, and may also be delayedThe four-year cycle investment logic of Bitcoin is actually very simple
Prepare some money you don't need, buy BTC 500 days before each halving, and then sell 500 days after the BTC halving.
Repeat this, and your assets can multiply about 5 times every four years.
Don't underestimate this 5x; compared to real-world physical industries, it's already very good.
$BTC
From a technical perspective, the 200-week MA of $BTC can be simply understood as BTC's intrinsic value. This value was still 58,000 in February, and now at the end of July, it has reached 63,500, an increase of about 10%. Does this mean the risk of missing out at 52,000 is increasing? So I suggest retail investors do dollar-cost averaging.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Anthropic’s IPO case appears to rest on a sharp tension: rapidly scaling enterprise demand versus the economics of supplying compute-intensive AI. Preliminary Q2 revenue above $11.5B and positive adjusted operating profit strengthen the operating narrative, but a projected 2025 net loss near $42B keeps cash efficiency central.
A raise rivaling SpaceX’s record would imply investors are underwriting durable margin expansion, not revenue growth alone. The decisive evidence will be whether enterprise monetization can outpace compute costs as scale rises. Not advice, just analysis.
#AnthropicIPONears🚀Market Outlook for Noon on 8.21🚀
$ETH Strategy:
ETH broke through 2361 with volume on the right side, go long, then retract stop loss.
2311 broke down with volume on the right side, go short with a good stop loss. Retest 2248 to confirm support is valid, add one more long, stop loss if it breaks 2219.
ETH hourly level holds above 2361, looking up to 2387-2426.
Watch for a short position at 2426 above ETH,
stop loss if it breaks 2464.
Left-side spike orders: long at 2177, stop loss if it breaks 2144.
Resistance above: 2361-2387-2426
Support below: 2311-2248-2219
4-hour level breaks 2311, looking down to 2248-2219.
ETH’s triangle pattern has been broken; now watch if ETH can hold the upper boundary of the triangle on the retest. If it holds, expect consolidation between 2358-2289. Only if it falls back inside the triangle is there a chance for a pullback, watch around 2220. Once ETH breaks 2358, it should head straight to 2428! Meeting adjourned.
$DOGE $BTC
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC # Market Update - Aug 21
btc = ">70K"
sol_price = 89.86
ma_stack = [88.26, 86.69, 81.98] # MA5 > MA10 > MA20
if sol_price > all(ma_stack):
trend = "BULLISH"
target = 95
print("SOL to $100 loading? 👀🚀")The $2.6B Solar Roof Fiction
Unveiled on Desperate Housewives with nonworking tiles, marketed to shareholders as a $2.6B $SCTY bailout, and promised at 1,000 roofs a week.
Reality? Roughly 3,000 roofs ever installed—then the numbers disappeared.
Now $TSLA is burying the story.
@GLJ_Research called it unfeasible from day one.
The hype was massive. The roofs weren’t.
#DailyOrbit I doubted 72,000 yesterday, and today BTC stands above 75,000: this time I should admit I was wrong
Yesterday, I took the volume contraction near 72,000 as bearish evidence. Today BTC has reached 75,413, up 8.37% in 24 hours, and I was slow in judging the direction.
But the volume-price divergence still exists: the current trading volume has shrunk by 33.8% compared to the previous window, and the funding rate is only +0.0061%. I will downgrade "volume contraction" from a veto factor to a warning; as long as BTC can continue to hold above 75,000, this breakout should no longer be blocked by old logic.
Would you now reclassify this as a true breakout, or continue to wait for volume? Just give one condition that would make you change your judgment.
Crypto assets are high risk, this article does not constitute investment advice, purely personal opinion.
#OKX星球 #BTC #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
Has the bull market really returned? In my view, it has. BTC and ETH have already reversed the three-stage weekly downtrend. From a macro perspective, although US inflation is still above the 2% target, it has significantly declined compared to before. The US-Iran war has also entered the final bickering phase. The strong rally in the market at this time directly reverses the downtrend, paving the way for the upcoming rate cut cycle. Unless a black swan event occurs, the probability of a continued downtrend is almost zero. Around 60,000 is likely the bottom range for this cycle. Looking back at historical trends, before the 2024 US midterm elections, BTC also took off strongly from around 68,000, with almost no pullback, rising directly to about 100,000. The current stage is somewhat similar, but this does not mean chasing highs at this position. This is just the initial sign. Whether it will truly follow the prediction remains to be seen. What can be confirmed is that the downtrend has been reversed, but the rise is not a straight line. There will still be aftershocks. If it rises too much in a short time, a pullback is certain. You need to catch the point where the upward momentum weakens, not just when it has risen by a certain amount and should fall. For a pullback, 68,000-70,000 is a very critical zone. Overall, the mindset of shorting every small rise in a bear market needs to shift. Buying low-leverage long positions on dips might be more appropriate. $BTC 📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 21)
Bulls and bears completed a strong-weak reversal within 4 hours; bears controlled the market for 12 hours but momentum collapsed; bears had a second outbreak at 24 hours establishing full suppression, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $100,000...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $10.61 $10.61 $0
4 hours $11,500 $10.61 $11,500
12 hours $14,200 $1,608.67 $12,600
24 hours $100,300 $2,185.52 $98,100
From the OKB liquidation data: bulls monopolized the market in 1 hour with zero short liquidations and a tiny volume of only $10.61 as a probe; at 4 hours the direction completely reversed, short liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 1083 times longs, liquidation volume surged to $11,500, shorts took over the game with an extreme posture; at 12 hours the short multiple collapsed to only a 7.8x advantage, liquidation volume slightly rose to $12,600, short momentum sharply declined; at 24 hours shorts had a second outbreak with $98,100 short liquidations versus $2,200 long, shorts were 44.9 times longs, cumulative liquidations broke $100,000. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 14.2% of the 24-hour total, showing very low concentration—new liquidations in the last 12 hours reached $86,100, with shorts completing a full harvest in the latter half of 24 hours with overwhelming force. The short dominance ratio crashed from an extreme 1083x at 4 hours to 7.8x at 12 hours, then rebounded to 44.9x at 24 hours, showing a "V-shaped reversal" in short squeeze momentum; after intense shakeout, shorts re-exploded with stronger posture, establishing absolute dominance over 24 hours. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not blindly chase shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 21
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors in three different tracks—whether Bitcoin's short squeeze can turn into a bull market, whether Anthropic's trillion-dollar valuation can sustain the AI bubble, and whether Pop Mart's IP iteration can transcend cycles.
₿ BTC Accelerates Rally: $3.3 Billion Shorts Vaporized, But Short Squeeze Momentum Is Fading
Bitcoin rose over 14% in two days, breaking $73,000. Over $3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours.
However, market data shows new leveraged long funds have not yet entered on a large scale. This rally is still mainly driven by short covering; perpetual futures open interest has not significantly rebounded. Whether Bitcoin can continue higher increasingly depends on spot buying and ETF inflows taking over. On the 19th, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $517 million, but ETF investors’ average cost is about $82,465, still overall at a loss. After the short squeeze, the real test is just beginning.
🤖 Anthropic Plans to File IPO Documents by End of August: Fundraising May Surpass SpaceX, Valuation Targets $1.5-2 Trillion
Insiders reveal Anthropic expects to publicly submit IPO documents as early as the end of August, with fundraising possibly matching or exceeding SpaceX’s record $75-86.2 billion, targeting a valuation of $1.5-2 trillion.
In May this year, Anthropic completed a $65 billion financing round with a valuation of $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion. By the end of July, annualized revenue exceeded $65 billion.
Founded only five years ago, aiming for the largest IPO in history. When the secondary market prices it at $2 trillion, the market is betting not on current profits but on AI’s complete restructuring of the enterprise market.
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Still First, Star People Soar 580% to Take Over
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan, up 9.5%; gross margin 69.7%. However, revenue was below market expectations of 19.98 billion yuan.
IP landscape is undergoing drastic restructuring. THE MONSTERS series featuring LABUBU generated 4.45 billion yuan, still first; new IP "Star People" revenue surged 580.6% year-on-year to 2.65 billion yuan, becoming the second largest IP. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine with revenue of 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2%. The board announced a first buyback plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan. LABUBU slows down, Star People takes over—the lifecycle management of IP is undergoing its toughest test.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: after Bitcoin’s $3.3 billion short squeeze, whether it can attract real spot buying is key; OKB contract market short dominance ratio crashed from an extreme 1083x to 7.8x then rebounded to 44.9x with cumulative liquidations exceeding $100,000, shorts re-exploded with stronger posture after intense shakeout establishing absolute dominance; Anthropic’s $2 trillion valuation challenges the largest IPO in history, redefining the limits of the AI bubble; Pop Mart’s LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, IP transition continues. Capital is seeking direction simultaneously in three tracks—when the short squeeze fades, IPO volume peaks, and IP shifts gears, who will be the true successor? #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $BTC This live chart completely exposed my trading habits. I set three take-profit levels: 75,500, 75,730, and 76,180, but I didn't set stop-loss at any of them. The only price that can close this trade is the estimated strong moving average near 73,759. In other words, I seriously planned where I should make money, but never really planned it: if I misjudged, I was willing to give up where I was. I keep telling myself that short-term losses are highly volatile, and normal stop-losses are easily swept away by inserted needles; As long as the major trend is not broken, and the price has not touched the strong moving average, the floating loss is only temporary. But the more real reason might be: I can't accept forced liquidation, but rather can't accept proactive stop-losses. Taking the initiative to stop loss means I have to admit that this trade was wrong; Qiangping, on the other hand, seemed to have made decisions for me by the market. The former requires facing misjudgments, while the latter can blame failure on market trends, pin insertion, and luck. So, I'd rather take the risk of losing the entire position than suffer a small, controllable loss. This is not courage, but rather packaging "unwillingness to admit mistakes" as "ability to withstand fluctuations." This time, the market pulled back from 75,770, and my position repeatedly broke below several short-term support points, with deep losses at one point. Now the price has returned to around 75,188, almost breaking even. From this, it's easy to conclude: See, not setting stop-losses is the right move. As long as you hold on, the price will eventually come back. But this may be the most dangerous outcome of this trade. A mistaken handover