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#BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over? $BTC really stunned the shorts these past two days 😂
A few days ago, I was still bearish, thinking that after repeatedly testing $62,000, it might continue downward, but the market directly slapped my face: BTC continuously broke through $70,000, $75,000, and today intraday it once surged to about $76,000. The weekly gain is already close to 20%, it's crazy.
However, I still think this rise cannot be fully understood as the start of a bull market.
The first and strongest driving force was actually a short squeeze. In this round, about $2.75 billion worth of short positions were liquidated. After carefully observing the capital flow, I found that after the short squeeze, a lot of spot funds took over; everyone has been holding on for a long time.
On August 20, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $606 million in a single day, and it has had net inflows for four consecutive days. This means the market did not immediately fall after the short squeeze ended; institutional funds began to take over. Additionally, the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakened, and Trump pushed the CLARITY Act again, with macro and regulatory expectations simultaneously adding fuel to BTC.
Next, I want to see if after this short squeeze ends, the ETF can continue to buy with real money every day, and whether BTC can hold after pulling back to $70,000–$72,000.
If it can hold, the bull market that everyone has been longing for might really be here!!【What ADA might be lacking now is not bullish news, but patience】
From the chip structure perspective, I believe the main cost basis for $ADA is around $0.57.
The original cost might have been close to $0.60, but as the price dropped, large holders did not choose to fully exit; instead, they continued to add positions to lower their average cost. Recently, on-chain data also shows signs of whales accumulating, indicating that some large funds are still willing to keep accumulating chips during the market downturn.
Of course, whale buying does not mean ADA will immediately surge.
Large holders might also be wrong; there could be a long waiting period between accumulation and price increase. But if the main players have truly given up on ADA, they wouldn’t continue to increase exposure during weak periods. Therefore, rather than short-term price fluctuations, I pay more attention to whether chips remain concentrated and whether the market shows support when the price retests key order zones and FVG.
Another indicator to watch is BTC dominance.
Many people see BTC dominance rising and think altcoins are doomed, but I believe this might actually be a normal rotation process in a bull market. Usually, BTC first absorbs market liquidity and breaks out first; after BTC enters a high-level consolidation, funds then start seeking higher returns, gradually rotating into altcoins like $ETH, $ADA, $XRP, and $SOL.The Truth Behind Breaking Through 75,000: After $3 Billion Short Liquidations, Who Is Really Paying for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin shattered months of low-volatility grinding with an extremely violent giant bullish candle.
The market once strongly broke through the historic $75,000 mark, with a staggering nearly $3 billion in liquidations across the entire network within 24 hours, most of which were leveraged short positions blindly taken during the choppy market. Correspondingly, the US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a massive net inflow of over $700 million in a single day, igniting the entire market's bullish sentiment in a very short time.
Is this volume-expanding large bullish candle purely a liquidity harvest and short squeeze in derivatives, or the starting signal of a new major bull market?
To understand the sustainability of this rally, we must dissect the two completely different capital forces driving the market surge.
The first and most direct driver comes from the derivatives market's "mechanical short squeeze and liquidation."
During the long months of wide-range consolidation and slow decline, the network's implied volatility (IV) was once suppressed to historically low levels. Many impatient short-term traders and quant strategies piled up dense short positions above $68,000 to $72,000.
When spot buying power slightly strengthened and prices broke key resistance levels, these short positions instantly became liquidity fuel for the rally.
Market makers were forced to hedge in the spot market, creating a vicious cycle of options Gamma squeeze and forced liquidations on high-leverage contracts. This self-reinforcing short-covering rally is very fast and steep, but its momentum is essentially unsustainable "fuel consumption." Once the short positions are fully cleared, the push from the short squeeze will quickly weaken.
What truly determines whether this rally can hold above $75,000 and continue expanding is the second force—the genuine quality of unleveraged spot capital and ETF institutional buying.
A single-day ETF net inflow exceeding $700 million sends a very positive signal: mainstream off-exchange institutional capital is reopening allocation gates.
However, we must stay clear-headed: we need to distinguish whether this inflow is purely from "long-term unilateral spot allocation" or from hedge funds entering to earn the spot-futures premium through "basis trade" capital. Only if ETFs maintain continuous stable net inflows in the coming weeks, and the on-chain spot cumulative volume difference (CVD) shows sustained growth, will it mean real large off-exchange capital is fully taking over the market.
A deeper shift in chip distribution lies in the psychological reversal of short-term holders (STH) on-chain.
Speculative chips previously deeply trapped between $64,000 and $68,000 have all turned profitable after breaking through $75,000. The heavy "break-even selling pressure" instantly dissipated, and the entire market's on-chain chip resistance zone was significantly cleared.
From a trading strategy perspective, facing such an explosive rally triggered by massive short squeezes, the worst mistake is blindly guessing the top and chasing highs on the left side before a clear top structure appears.
At the same time, chasing above $75,000 must be cautious of a "pullback confirmation consolidation" after the short squeeze momentum fades. A more prudent approach is to hold the base position, closely monitor the continuity of ETF net inflows and spot volume distribution, and patiently wait for the market to pull back and confirm key support levels before dynamically adding positions.
Facing Bitcoin breaking through the $75,000 mark, do you think this rally has just started the main upward wave, or is it a liquidity peak after a short-term short squeeze? Are you choosing to hold your current positions or have you started taking profits in batches?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ On August 21, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL rose together, with about $1 billion worth of short positions liquidated within 24 hours, accounting for 81% of the total network liquidations. SOL's single-day increase was 5.91%, reaching $89.94.
However, the short squeeze momentum has started to weaken since over $1 billion was liquidated in a single hour on August 20—on August 21, SOL short liquidations were $18.27 million versus $4.19 million in longs, with the short-to-long liquidation ratio dropping sharply from a 4-hour peak of 15.9x to 4.32x over 24 hours. The 100x long position opened at 85.84 triggered liquidation after a 6.4% price retracement; the weakening of the short squeeze momentum is precisely a high-risk window for pullbacks. This position should immediately close 70%, and the remaining 30% should move the stop loss up to 88.00, using realized profits to hedge against the vacuum risk of "short liquidations completed, new buying not following through."
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX The recent rise in Bitcoin prices mainly comes from the liquidity brought by the liquidation of a large number of short positions.
The tank is empty.
Now, Bitcoin's price can only grow through normal spot trading.In just a day and a half, Ethereum surged 24%, and Bitcoin also rose 16%. The core reason is still the same — the news and volatility had been suppressed for too long, and when released, it triggered a major market move. Even more astonishing, the liquidation scale this time actually exceeded the big crash on October 10th, with a large number of Bitcoin and Ethereum short positions instantly wiped out. This is the real driving force behind this violent surge.
So, does this mean the bottom is truly in? Honestly, I think this rebound is indeed very impressive, but we still can’t rule out the possibility of testing the bottom again later. I personally entered a long position around 58,000 and have held it for a long time, but I still recommend everyone to be prepared — the coin price might still drop further. The best strategy is always to dollar-cost average in batches, which is what I do myself.
Regarding the technical details of this surge, the daily RSI shot up to the highest level since November 2024, which is the peak level of a bull market. In a bear market, such extreme overbought conditions historically often signal a phase top. On the 30-minute chart, you can also see the price rising while the RSI forms a descending line, which is a classic bearish divergence. I’m not saying it will drop immediately, just reminding everyone — many rush in chasing the rally and end up buying at a phase top, which might later fall back to around 68,000 to 69,000. Be cautious about chasing highs.
There’s also an interesting phenomenon — the price keeps rising, but the funding rate has turned negative, basically indicating that a large number of longs are taking profits and exiting. Open interest is also decreasing simultaneously, and the number of shorts in the market has already surpassed longs. Historically, this kind of structure often means there might be another short squeeze coming, so it’s worth paying attention. Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there’s still a batch of short positions up to 75,000, but overall, the long positions waiting to be liquidated below are clearly more than the shorts above. This asymmetrical structure deserves a closer look.
Another key indicator is the average cost line of short-term holders. In a bear market, once the price breaks above this line, historically it’s often a good opportunity to short because you’re trading above the cost line. In 2018, 2022, and before the FTX crash, every time the price surged above this line, there was a good shorting window. Now the price is clearly above this line, which could mean two things: either the bear market bottom is really near, or this is a huge trap with another drop waiting ahead. I won’t act immediately just because of this signal; history tells us that every major turning point gives enough time to react, so there’s no need to rush. Waiting for more confirmation signals is safer.
I will focus on this week’s and this month’s closing prices. The price is currently testing the previous ETF consolidation phase’s range high, which is a critical level. Also, Ethereum has clearly outperformed Bitcoin recently, with loss-making positions still outnumbering profitable ones. Historically, this kind of signal is often a good window to pay attention to, and I still believe it’s suitable to steadily dollar-cost average into Ethereum now. Whether this surge really marks the bottom is still uncertain; I personally want to wait a bit longer, especially if the funding rate can remain negative for the next 48 hours, there might still be room for another push up. That’s all for today. If you found this useful, remember to like and follow.$BTC has broken through again! Brothers, 77,000 is already underfoot, now directly approaching 78,000. But at this position, I really dare not enter, I even want to reduce my position!
At 15:34 today, it officially broke 76,000, up +5% intraday, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the last 5 trading days, reaching a new high since 5/27. The most critical thing is that it decisively stood above 68,700, a level that suppressed BTC's rebound for a full three months. Short-Term Holder cost base is 68,700, Median Realised is 63,000, both now underfoot, and the trend structure has flipped from "consolidation" to "breakout." But is this a short squeeze or a real breakout?
RSI has already reached 77–83, clearly in the overbought zone. More importantly, the "fees are not overheated yet" that I mentioned this morning has been broken; MEXC fees are now +0.0084%, F&G 70 has entered greed, and leverage is truly back. 24-hour short liquidations are 2.7–3 billion dollars, the largest single-day short squeeze in nearly two years, with whale 0x8c96 having a BTC short position liquidated for 96.39 million. The bullets for the short squeeze are spent, leverage is connected, and next it all depends on whether ETFs and spot can take over.
The breakout is real, but 77,000 is an extension level; directly rushing above 80,000 is prone to RSI bearish divergence.Jimothy surged 50% in a single day, and the top 40 token holders did not make large purchases. Are they whales or market makers? What are you hiding?
Data changes of the top 40 Jimothy holders on 2026.8.21
1: PUMP total inflow 9.38%!
MEXC total inflow 31.19%
2: Top 10 addresses: 3 increased positions, 2 decreased positions
Top 20 addresses: 2 decreased positions, 5 increased positions, 1 new entry
Top 40 addresses: 5 new entries, 1 increased position, 2 decreased positions
$Jimothy Daily Key Summary:
Today, I noticed Jimothy surged 50% in a single day, so I took a closer look at Jimothy's data and felt it necessary to compile and organize it. I found the structure of the top 40 holders to be quite chaotic, with a complex mix of increases and decreases in positions. A simple analysis shows that 6 addresses newly entered the top 40, but upon closer inspection, these addresses did not enter the top 40 by new purchases; only 1-2 addresses slightly increased their positions to enter the top 40, while the rest entered due to rollover or transfers. These 6 can be ignored. Among the others, 9 increased their positions. Although it seems many increased, the actual amount added is not large. Meanwhile, 6 decreased their positions, but the actual amount reduced is also not significant. Essentially, the increases and decreases in holdings nearly balance out, which raises some questions here BTC surged to around $77,000, and this time it's not just about short liquidations.
Two days ago, BTC was still around $64,100.
Now the latest price has reached 76.8K–77.1K, a 24-hour increase of about 6%–7%, nearly a 20% rise in just two days.
The first half of the rise is easy to explain:
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakened, risk appetite rebounded, and on top of that, large-scale shorts were forced to cover.
In the past two days, short liquidations in the crypto market have exceeded $4 billion.
But now the most important change has appeared:
Real spot money is starting to take over.
On August 20, the U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw a net inflow of about $606 million, higher than the previous day's approximately $517 million, accelerating inflows for two consecutive days.
This indicates the market is shifting from:
Shorts being forced to buy back
to:
Institutions actively chasing the rally.
What really needs to be watched now is not "how high BTC can go," but whether the breakout zone of 75K–75.5K can hold.
**If it holds above 75.5K:** the breakout remains valid, and after taking 77K, the market will continue to look for higher levels.
**If it falls back below 75K:** it means the pace of the rise is exceeding the real capital's capacity to support it.
The most noteworthy change in this BTC rally is not the price rising from 64K to 77K.
But rather:
Those forced to buy have not fully exited, and active buying money has already started coming in.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC 🔥 [What is the real driving force behind BTC's recent surge?] ] BTC's recent rally may look like a "sudden bullish turn in the crypto world," but breaking it down, it's actually several capital logics resonating simultaneously. First, and most importantly, the U.S. Treasury has increased the scale of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases, raising it from about $2 billion to $4 billion. The market interprets this as a signal of improved liquidity in the bond market, with pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury yields easing, improved dollar liquidity expectations, and scarce assets like BTC and gold benefiting simultaneously. (Reuters) Second, institutional funding is starting to return. On August 20, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $606 million, marking four consecutive days of net inflows, marking the largest single-day inflow since May. This signal is more important than a simple contract push: it indicates spot funds are buying BTC again. (CryptoRank) Third, it is a typical "short squeeze." After BTC broke through key resistance, a large number of short positions stopped losses, forced liquidations, and forced covering, creating additional buying and further amplifying the gains. Previously, the large accumulated short positions in the market actually became fuel for the rise. (Investor's Business Daily) Fourth, the technological structure is changing. BTC has climbed back above $70,000 and continues to break through $75,000, indicating that the previous resistance zone is beginning to attempt to turn into support. The market has now gradually shifted from "oversold rebound" to a "trend reversal confirmation phase." But it's important to note: the price has already risen very quickly, and there are profit-taking positions in the short termX Layer TVL surpasses 100 million, OKB transforms from platform token to public chain Gas!
$OKB's L2 X Layer TVL has exceeded 100 million, with on-chain stablecoin supply over 2 billion. Circle native USDC and CCTP are now live, and both Uniswap and Aave have been deployed.
Last week, using USDC on X Layer for yield, gas fee was $0.0005 per transaction, 5000 TPS with 1-second block time, the experience is much better than Ethereum mainnet.
Transmission logic: Exchange L2 competes for "compliant dollar" settlement layer → native USDC locks liquidity → OKB as Gas token has real consumption demand. After ICE (NYSE parent company) invested in OKX in June, ICE CEO also attended Trump's crypto summit, compliance is accelerating.
Conclusion: Mid-term bullish. $OKB 100-105 is the left-side position. TVL breaking $200 million is a signal to add positions. X Layer ecosystem expansion = OKB demand expansion
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 🚀 New developments may boost liquidity in the Bitcoin market
Markets are witnessing notable developments as the U.S. Treasury Department moves toward increasing long-term Treasury bond buybacks, with amounts potentially reaching $4 billion per operation.
This move could impact liquidity levels in the markets and increase investor interest in digital assets.
📊 With continued positive forecasts, attention turns to Bitcoin's future, with expectations of reaching $100,000 and $500,000 levels in the long term.
⚠️ This is an analysis and perspective, not investment advice.Limit order 4580 short, stop loss 87, target around 4570 and 4550! $XAU #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
This round of BTC's strong acceleration and breakout has completely ignited bullish market sentiment, but this surge is driven by a combination of expectations, short squeeze, and capital inflow—not a full bull market transition. Whether it can sustain depends mainly on the strength of subsequent capital relay.
The core logic behind this rally is clear: U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, easing macro liquidity pressure in the short term, which loosens restrictions on risk assets; combined with continuous inflows into spot ETFs, institutional real money is re-entering the market, supporting the bottom. Meanwhile, after breaking key resistance levels, a large number of short positions have been liquidated in a chain reaction, causing a short squeeze that further amplifies the rally and accelerates the uptrend.
But to be honest: short squeeze rallies tend to be short-lived.
The biggest risk now is that most of the rise relies on forced liquidation buying rather than sustained incremental active capital. Once the short positions are fully cleared and short-term profit-taking occurs, if ETF inflows cannot keep pace, the market may face a high-level pullback and consolidation at any time.
There are two possible scenarios going forward:
First, successful capital relay. Continuous net inflows into ETFs and price stabilization at high levels could extend this rebound and challenge higher resistance zones.
Second, volume gap and pullback. Slowing or reversing capital inflows, overbought indicators correcting, and the market entering a volatile correction phase to digest the short-term surge in sentiment.
Currently, macro uncertainties remain; the Federal Reserve's rate hike disagreements have not been fully resolved, and bearish risks are only temporarily dormant, not gone.
In practice, do not chase highs or greed for tops. Positions can be taken off in batches, and wait patiently for pullbacks and stabilization if out of the market. This acceleration is a sentiment-driven rally, not a reckless one-sided bull market.The long-term logic of OKB is fixed supply, X Layer Gas, and ecological staking demand.
If you build a position based on this logic but hold it with 20x perpetual contracts, it is a "long-term view paired with a short-term tool," and a single spike could prematurely force the correct judgment to exit.Bitcoin's sudden surge is not driven by a single piece of news, but by three forces working together:
1️⃣ Shorts are being squeezed and forced to cover
In the past few months, Bitcoin dropped from $126,000 to $58,000, with every rebound basically pushed back down. During the decline, the market collectively shorted on rallies, and short positions have been heavily crowded. Once the price breaks upward, short liquidations force buying, creating a "rise → liquidation → further rise" cycle that directly propels the market.
2️⃣ U.S. Treasury injects liquidity
Starting September 9, the long-term Treasury repo limit was raised from $2 billion to $4 billion, suppressing U.S. bond yields and weakening the dollar. Once liquidity loosens, risk asset valuations begin to recover.
3️⃣ U.S. crypto policy sentiment is highly positive
Trump met with executives from multiple crypto companies, expressing intentions to make the U.S. a global digital asset hub and mentioning consideration of government increasing Bitcoin holdings. Regulatory friendliness expectations have directly ignited market sentiment.
However, signals are just signals; actual legislation and policies still need to be implemented. Emotion-driven market fluctuations will be especially volatile, so be cautious of risks.
$BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ China's proposal "Application Guidelines, Test Items, and Conditions for Secondary Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicle Drives" was recently approved by the International Electrotechnical Commission. According to public information, this is the world's first international standard project in the solid-state battery field. It's not just laboratories that are affected. Automakers, battery manufacturers, material suppliers, and testing agencies will all need to more clearly answer the same set of questions in the future: how to define solid-state batteries, what to measure, under what conditions they are tested, and how to compare the results. The most important point for ordinary readers to clarify now: this is a "project initiation," not that the standard has been released and implemented, and that solid-state batteries have already achieved a breakthrough in mass production. It marks the official start of international standard development, with further stages including drafting, discussion, voting, approval, and release. [This time, the first issue is 'what kind of ruler should I measure'?] Solid-state batteries are very hot. Some talk about safety, some about energy density, some about lifespan and fast charging. The problem is that if the test conditions differ, the same number may lose comparability: laboratory samples and practical applications are not the same, and different temperatures, cycling methods, and test items may yield different results. The purpose of a standard is not to endorse a product, but to encourage everyone to discuss it under the same language and conditions. The application guide answers how it enters real-world scenarios, what the test item clearly checks, and the environment in which test condition constraints are obtained. It's like standardizing scales in a market. The scale itself does not suddenly improve the product, but it reduces disputes and makes performance, safety, and lifespan easier to verify. So, this#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
#财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, which business line do you favor more?
Regarding the safety cushion, I have to be objective—Xiaomi is not short of money, which is the bulls' strong confidence.
Market page: Cash and equivalents 37.25 billion + time deposits 128.18 billion, borrowings only 39.3 billion. Net cash is substantial, no short-term liquidity risk, able to continue supporting investments in automobiles and AI.
But this is precisely why I am bearish in the mid-term: more money = more burn, burning on loss-making automobiles and AI with zero monetization, so the profit statement won't improve in the short term. The safety cushion ensures "not dying," not "making money immediately."
Today’s rise is a rise, but the profitability inflection point hasn't arrived; I keep my short positions unchanged.
$XIAOMI Funding situation: $4 billion liquidations, shorts crushed
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $4 billion, with shorts accounting for about $3.7 billion, marking the most severe short squeeze since 2021.
Bitcoin single-coin liquidations were about $461 million, Ethereum liquidations about $176 million, with over 127,000 people liquidated. The short liquidations created a positive feedback loop: BTC price rises → shorts liquidated → forced buying → price rises further. This is the micro mechanism behind this round of short squeeze.
ETF funding: Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $606 million, marking four consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock IBIT had a single-day inflow of $503 million.
Key warning: After the $841 million liquidation wave, the easiest profits in the short squeeze rally may have passed. The next phase requires real spot demand to replace forced buying. If prices stagnate while leverage rebuilds rapidly, it could trigger liquidation risks on the other side. $BTC $ETH $CORE #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ ⚠️The market analysis is for learning purposes only and does not constitute investment advice
AEON Transaction Details Interpretation
Current price: 0.07228
Focus on the repeatedly appearing fixed batch size: 12.05K, appearing repeatedly with both buy and sell orders, this is scripted programmatic order placement.
## Breakdown of Market Phenomena
1. 12.05K batch size:
• Occasionally placing large active buy orders below, briefly supporting the price;
• Then turning into active sell orders to push the price down;
This is not real retail investors, but project/market-making bots.
Purpose: To create the illusion of large funds absorbing orders, giving the impression of strong buy support below.
2. Market behavior:
Batches of buy orders are placed to briefly push the price up;
Immediately followed by sell orders of the same size to crush the rebound.
As mentioned before: single pulse price support without buy-side follow-through, this is a protective measure during a downtrend, not a reversal or bottom formation.
## Cross-checking the Four Bottom Conditions
1. Declining downward momentum: ❌ Scripted support, but selling pressure has not truly disappeared, bots are doing two-way wash trading, no exhaustion of bears;
2. Support stabilization: ❌ Continually making new lows, no consecutive candles holding support;
3. Volume surge with bullish candles: ❌ Just bot pulses on the order book, no confirmed bullish candle on the chart;
4. Sustained buy-side dominance: ❌ Both buyers and sellers are bots, not real bulls entering.
Key distinction:
✅ True bottom: retail investors + real capital continuously absorbing sell orders, bots gradually exit.
❌ Current AEON: market-making scripts are wash trading back and forth to support the price, delaying the decline, not indicating the end of the drop. After the support force is exhausted, the price will continue to fall.
### Key price levels unchanged
Lifeline reference: 0.07023
Short-term resistance: 0.07470
Only if the 15-minute closing price holds above 0.07470 can a recovery be considered;
A valid break below 0.07023 will open a new downward space.
## Practical Reminder
• Positioning: Do not mistake this bot-supported rebound for a reversal; if the rebound lacks strength, be cautious;
🈳Let's talk about why BTC has surged recently?
This BTC surge is heavily catalyzed by U.S. Treasury bonds.
But it's not a simple "U.S. bonds fall → BTC rises" scenario. The real logic is:
The U.S. Treasury starts actively repurchasing long-term bonds → expectations of declining long-term U.S. Treasury yields → weaker dollar → marginal easing of financial conditions → non-sovereign assets like BTC/gold get repriced.
This logic has already been directly traded by the market in the past few days.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced increasing the scale of long-term bond repurchases from about $2 billion each time to $4 billion. After the news, long-term U.S. Treasury yields briefly dropped about 10 basis points, the dollar weakened, and BTC and gold rose simultaneously.
The Treasury's sudden increase in long-term bond repurchases essentially sends a signal to the market:
The U.S. government does not want long-term interest rates to continue spiraling out of control.
So the market started trading "long-term rates peaking/financial conditions improving."
More importantly: the dollar is also falling.
This, in my view, is a more crucial part of this BTC rally.
Currently, the dollar index has dropped to around 98.7, hitting a three-month low.
So now we actually see a very typical combination:
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields ↓ + DXY ↓ + BTC ↑ + Gold ↑
This is much more significant than BTC rising on its own.
Because it shows the market is trading not just an ordinary crypto narrative.I reviewed the 207 coins on Binance Alpha that have no spot trading, only USDT perpetual contracts. Only 49 of them have more bullish sentiment from whales than retail investors, while 86 are inverted, nearly twice as many. Simply put, the current bullish wave is mainly being supported by retail investors.
Looking at the prices, out of 204 coins, 22 have dropped more than 70% from their 90-day highs, with a median drawdown of -42%. Despite such declines, many are still bullish, which doesn't look like a bottom to me. The total sector holdings amount to only $1358M, the market is too thin, and the on-chain liquidity is so low that any small trade can move the price.
I lean bearish on this structure. Retail investors holding long positions while whales are not stepping in—this combination won't hold for long. This morning, my direction was that $BTC wouldn't hold above 75,000 in the short term and would pull back. Now it's at 77,112, having reached a high of 77,275. I misread the direction. I had two bases at the time: first, the open interest growth couldn't keep up with the price, indicating that the price push wasn't driven by new funds; second, the RSI was extremely overbought. Looking back now, the first basis still holds: open interest only increased by 3.62% during the same period, while the price rose by 8.26%, less than half the growth rate; the funding rate is 0.0098%, and longs still hardly pay any premium. So the data didn't betray me; I just misinterpreted it by equating "no leverage entering the market" directly with "price can't rise." But spot buying alone can push the price up without contract support, and the lack of accumulated leverage actually means shorts can't find liquidation positions to attack, so the resistance to pushing down is much greater than I thought. The second point is more direct: RSI went from 94 to 97.8, and in a strong trend, this indicator can remain dulled for a long time, so using it alone to call a top is untenable. After correction, I'm watching the 78,067 level; only if it breaks above can we talk about the next phase.To be honest, compared to the previous “bull frenzy” rhythm, there are some similarities, but the core is really different. 🚀 Similarities: The script is still the same script. The technical structure of this rally and the short squeeze are indeed very similar to history. · The cycle pattern is repeating: after bottoming in 2017, a parabolic rally; the same structure in 2021; now in 2026 it’s replaying again. Analyst Crypto Patel points out that BTC creates higher highs after every major correction, “the script has never failed.” · Short squeeze triggers the rally: On August 19, about $2.97 billion was liquidated in a single day, with shorts accounting for $2.73 billion. Shorts were forced to cover, causing a stampede-style rally. · Macro liquidity expectations: The US Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion each time, weakening the dollar and sparking a collective risk asset rally. ⚠️ Differences: This time it’s more “heavy” and also “slow” · ETF institutions lead, no longer retail FOMO: Previous bull markets relied on retail rush; now institutions enter through ETFs. The rise is steady but slow, lacking that full-market frenzy vibe. · The four-year cycle rule is failing: According to the “traditional cycle theory,” after the halving in April 2024, the peak should be reached between the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 ($150,000–$200,000), but by May 2026 it’s still hovering around $70,000. Grayscale also believes the traditional four-year cycle theory may be failing. · Market desensitized to bearish news: New Fire Research Institute points out that the current driving force comes from endogenous improvement in capital structure. CLARWhen all three screens turned green at the same time, I paused.
On the left, $BTC at 75,000. In the middle, $ETH at 2,350. On the right, gold at 4,500.
In the past 24 hours, BTC rose 8%, ETH rose 12%, and gold rose 4%. The last time I saw them all move up so neatly was in October last year.
Gold moved first.
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.32%, prompting the Treasury to act by announcing a doubling of the long-term bond repurchase program. The dollar fell to a two-and-a-half-month low, long-term rates retreated, real rates were pushed down, and gold was driven from 4,300 to above 4,500. Some are buying, some are taking over.
BTC and ETH followed, but with different rhythms.
On August 19, Trump met with the CEOs of Coinbase and Gemini at the White House, publicly pressuring the Senate to pass the market structure bill. On the same day, the SEC introduced a new regulatory framework for token financing — the first compliance channel established for projects.
With these two messages combined, BTC surged 7% in a single day. Last night, after the Treasury’s repurchase announcement, it pushed again, breaking through 75,000.
ETH rose 5 percentage points more than BTC today — shorts were heavily crowded, and when the price turned, a chain liquidation directly pushed it up. Like a spring compressed too long, it bounces fastest when released.
Two forces are pushing simultaneously. On the macro side, the Treasury stabilizes the bond market, the dollar weakens, and liquidity expectations improve. Structurally, Trump and the SEC signal a policy shift, shorts are cleared out, and ETF funds are flowing back. On August 19, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of over $700 million.
But there is a fundamental difference between gold and crypto.
Gold’s rise is driven step-by-step by buying pressure. A significant part of BTC and ETH’s gains comes from short liquidations — some are buying, some are running.
Different motivations mean different resilience going forward.
Next, watch two things: whether the dollar index can continue to weaken — if the dollar rebounds, all three will come under pressure; and whether ETF inflows can sustain — if the $700 million-plus was just a pulse, then 75,000, 2,350, and 4,500 are short-term highs; if the inflows maintain this scale over the next week, then real money is entering.
All three screens turned green simultaneously. Whether money is truly coming in will be answered in the next week. Fundraising scale may match SpaceX: Anthropic rushes IPO, the underlying logic of AI company valuation has changed
The global artificial intelligence sector is about to welcome the most significant barometer.
As early as the end of August, the large model super unicorn Anthropic will officially disclose its IPO prospectus. According to multiple investment banks, the scale of this public fundraising is very likely to match or even surpass the commercial aerospace giant SpaceX, becoming one of the largest super IPOs in the global tech capital market in recent years.
When an AI leader valued at tens of billions of dollars, owning the top-tier Claude series models, truly steps onto the public trading stage, the valuation coordinate system for the entire AI sector in the secondary market is undergoing a disruptive reconstruction.
In the past two years, the sky-high valuations given to large model companies in the primary market were largely based on "breakthroughs in parameter scale" and "imaginative technological vision."
As long as you can train the next-generation model with leading benchmark scores, capital will continuously pay for you.
But once the IPO door opens, Wall Street and secondary market institutional investors will scrutinize every data metric with an extremely cold financial microscope.
At this new stage, the core focus of assessment quickly shifts from pure model benchmark scores to "the quality of annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth" and "whether inference compute costs can be effectively amortized."
Anthropic's revenue growth curve is certainly very impressive, and enterprise clients' stickiness to the Claude model in programming, complex reasoning, and automated workflows is evident.
But on the flip side, there is the depreciation of the tens of thousands of GPU compute clusters required to train the next-generation cutting-edge large models, as well as the expensive GPU inference costs behind every API call.
If an AI company can only double its revenue but its marginal gross margin is tightly suppressed by high cloud compute rental fees, its business model easily becomes "a toll collector working for Nvidia and cloud computing giants."
This is also why Anthropic must rush for a super IPO at this time.
The large model arms race has entered a deep water zone of tens of billions of dollars in consumption. Completing a public listing during the liquidity window not only provides sufficient resources for subsequent larger-scale compute clusters but also establishes its benchmark position in pure-blood AI assets.
For secondary market investors, this also raises a very practical asset allocation question:
As AI unicorns successively enter the capital market, do you prefer to bet on mature tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, which have strong cash flow and distribution networks and also invest in AI companies, or are you willing to pay for pure AI assets like Anthropic, which are high-growth, highly elastic but face huge short-term losses?
Between high revenue growth and short-term heavy losses, what is the core metric you use to measure the long-term value of an AI startup?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #ETH surges strongly, short positions liquidated over $1.1 billion
The leader has something to say
Ethereum hit a high of 2335 today, rising much more aggressively than Bitcoin.
On-chain, short positions worth $1.1 billion were liquidated in 24 hours. The largest single liquidation was $108 million, from an address related to a pension fund. BlackRock's Ethereum ETF added $122 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of net inflows.
Short squeeze combined with ETF buying pressure, both forces pushing simultaneously.
But there is a question here. This sharp rise in ETH — is it mainly driven by short covering, or is it genuine spot capital entering? We need to see if subsequent buying can keep up. If it’s just shorts being forced to cover pushing the price up, the pullback could be severe. ETH’s derivatives leverage structure is more fragile than Bitcoin’s, making short squeezes more elastic but also leading to similar retracements.
In terms of strategy, the plan to buy Bitcoin around 65000 to 66000 remains unchanged; for Ethereum, consider buying in the 2000 to 2050 range. Do not chase the rally; wait for a pullback. Continue holding SPCX as a core position. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.BTC Breaks $76K, ETH Nears $2.4K — What’s Driving the Rally?
$BTC has pushed above $76K while $ETH approaches $2.4K, signaling renewed risk appetite. The move is supported by stronger institutional demand, ETF flows, and short-covering after weeks of tight trading.Lower Treasury yields following increased long-term bond buybacks are easing pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile expectations for clearer U.S. crypto regulation are strengthening confidence and could support institutional participationBTC 两天从 6.4 万附近一路冲到 7.7万，光过去24小时就有大约12亿美元空头被强平，算上前一天，两天清算的空头已经超过40亿美元。 但如果只把这轮上涨归结成“逼空”，我觉得还是看窄了。 昨天美国现货BTC ETF净流入6.06亿美元，ETH ETF也有2.21亿美元，而且已经连续第二天明显放量。也就是说，价格往上冲的同时，场外真金白银也在进来。 这才是我比较在意的地方。 另外，美国CFTC主席已经放话：如果《Clarity Act》继续卡在国会，CFTC会直接利用现有权限推进加密市场监管规则，甚至已经让工作人员开始准备相关方案。换句话说，美国这边的监管方向并没有停下来等法案。 现在BTC的问题反而不是“牛不牛”，而是涨得太快了。 64000→77000，几天涨了接近20%，空头清算、ETF资金、监管预期全挤在一起，短线很容易继续疯，也很容易突然砸一根。 我现在更想看的是，下周ETF还能不能继续保持这种流入速度。 如果还能持续，这波就不是单纯的逼空行情了。 你们觉得BTC这次能不能直接摸回前高？Bitcoin (BTC) Recent Trend Analysis (As of 2026-08-21)
Three Major Drivers of This Rally
1. Favorable US Macro Liquidity
The US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, leading to a decline in US bond yields and a weaker dollar. This improved the overall environment for risk assets, resulting in a return of spot ETF funds and increased institutional buying.
2. Improved Regulatory Expectations
Senior US officials met with executives from the crypto industry, raising market expectations for the introduction of more crypto-friendly regulatory legislation. Sentiment has significantly recovered. The Senate vote on the related bill on September 15 is a key upcoming event.
3. Short Squeeze Amplifying Gains
The market had previously accumulated a large amount of short leverage. After the price broke upward, many short positions were forcibly liquidated. The buybacks from these liquidations further pushed prices higher, amplifying the short-term rally. Over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within one hour.
Technical Analysis (Public Market)
- Short-term Resistance
First resistance at $73,700–$74,000; strong resistance at $76,000–$78,000, the previous trapped zone.
- Key Support
Short-term defense at $72,000; if broken, a retest of $69,000–$70,000 is expected; mid-term strong support at $66,000–$68,000, which is the starting range of this rebound.
The short-term hourly RSI indicator is relatively high, showing signs of overbought conditions. After a rapid surge, a sharp correction may occur at any time. After the short squeeze ends, a severe pullback is likely. Bitcoin’s latest move above $70K looks explosive but the story is bigger than crypto alone. The rally came as several factors aligned: the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double longer-dated Treasury buybacks to $4B per operation helping push long-term yields lower initially. At the same time a crowded short position was forced to unwind accelerating $BTC move higher. ◆ Liquidity Became the First Catalyst The Treasury intervention matters because long term yields had climbed to l$PEOPLE Previously, those VC coins surged 8-10 times at high market caps, such as APT and SUI, mainly driven by investors with tens of millions and mid-level investors with millions; retail investors had little involvement. Now, the big and mid-level investors who used to play VC coins have either exited the scene or changed their interests, focusing only on Bitcoin, investing solely in Bitcoin, and no longer touching VC coins. On the contrary, ORDI inscription coins have been driven up by retail investor consensus.The rise in the crypto circle is really different from stocks; even groups that haven't been active for a long time have become lively. Of course, in reality, it still doesn't matter much to most people, haha. It's just that when things get better, it feels like you can make money. However, those who dare to chase indeed made profits. I didn't dare to chase yesterday; later I saw BNB had the smallest increase, so I took a small bite and sold it this morning after waking up. After 15 days of dollar-cost averaging, I made over ten percent, which is ridiculous—I really want to sell. It's quite uncomfortable when it dips and then rises.
US tech stocks generally fell, but storage stocks recovered again, with MU rising nearly 4% intraday. AI/storage cores still face tight supply and demand and high valuations, which will amplify volatility for both. However, I still like buying Korean stock Hynix. I couldn't resist yesterday and continued running a grid between 800 and 1500, hoping to hold on this time. Every time I make a little bit of pocket change, I really want to quit. Currently, I'm up 1%. The grid only profits from volatility; unless it really drops to 800, high volatility is still quite good. The situation in Iran and oil supply remain macro variables. If energy prices continue to rise, it will push up inflation expectations and US Treasury yields, which is less friendly to high-valuation tech and storage stocks. While US tech stocks are falling, the crypto circle is surging—is this time different? As of waking up today, hot money has already spread from BTC and ETH to high Beta, but the faster the spread, the easier it is to turn into a relay race later. That's how the crypto circle is; frankly, many people can't keep up and will soon look for tokens that can catch up. Those who had this mindset in the first wave are indeed smart people.
$BTC $PEOPLE rose by 43% in 24 hours, but intraday it is already down 96% from the peak — pullbacks are nearby. Yesterday's spike is visible across all timeframes, but the gain over 12 hours is only 5%, and over 4 hours — 8%. Shorter timeframes show a slowdown after the impulse. How to explain this difference: the impulse is gone, but the market structure is not yet broken?After BTC short squeeze, it settles at $71,300, and now the market is waiting for the next variable. If breaking through $70,000 is already reflected in the price, what variables have yet to be reflected? Bitcoin rose to $71,300, absorbing liquidation volumes in the $70,039 range. During this process, a short squeeze occurred, strengthening the upward momentum. At the same time, Ethereum was trading around $2,275, with the ETH/BTC ratio showing relative strength. This can be interpreted as an early sign of an altcoin cycle phase, but it is not yet confirmed. The core of this move is not just a price breakout but a restructuring of derivative positions. $70,039 was the concentrated liquidation zone for recently accumulated leveraged short positions, and breaking through this triggered a chain of forced liquidations. As a result, liquidations of short positions have turned into buying pressure, amplifying the upward momentum. If the funding fee and basis have not fallen outside normal ranges, this rally can still be seen as closer to a position reset than overheating. PoetryBitcoin has reached 74,000. The shorts are dead, but the bull market is not yet alive.
This is not a pretentious cryptic phrase, but the most authentic snapshot of the market at this moment. A 14% surge in two days, $3 billion worth of short positions vaporized, the sound of liquidations cracking crisply like ice breaking. A short squeeze, textbook-level short squeeze. But if you think this is the bull market's charge, ask again: #BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch The trading volume in the crypto market has exploded these past two days!!!
In the last two days, the entire market's trading volume has surged explosively, with the increase in derivatives trading volume far exceeding that of spot trading. Behind the surge in trading volume are three converging factors: short squeeze, sentiment recovery, and collective capital turnover.
First, large-scale forced liquidation of short positions has brought massive turnover. For two consecutive days, over $3 billion worth of short positions have been liquidated, with more than 90% being short position clearances. Passive short position buybacks have generated a large amount of instantaneous transactions, which is the most direct driver of the volume surge. After BTC quickly broke through key resistance, prices continuously triggered new long positions at high levels and stop-losses on short positions, instantly heating up the contract market trading activity.
Second, market sentiment has rapidly warmed up, and previously sidelined funds have re-entered. After a long period of sideways consolidation, a large amount of capital was on the sidelines. When BTC continuously hit new stage highs, the greed index quickly rose, prompting retail investors and short-term speculators to re-engage in trading. Hotspots rotated faster, with MEME and sector coins alternately moving, further amplifying the overall trading volume.
However, it is important to distinguish the core issue: the current volume increase mainly comes from leveraged contract trading, and the spot trading volume growth has not kept pace with contracts. BTC spot ETFs have only seen intermittent large inflows, with no continuous steady capital inflow yet. The volume surge only proves that the current competition is intense and cannot be directly equated with a large-scale inflow of incremental spot funds.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ANTHROPIC plans to enter the public market with a valuation close to two trillion dollars. The current core conflict lies in the tug-of-war between high-growth revenue expectations and a $40 billion net loss affecting market risk appetite.
Quarterly revenue has surpassed $10 billion with operating profit turning positive for the first time, pushing annualized revenue beyond the $60 billion threshold. This fundamental improvement has led to a concentration of tech growth stock positions under macro liquidity constraints toward leading names.
The priority order of market driving factors has changed. Whether operating cash flow can offset computing power expenses has become the most critical variable, while revenue growth’s sole support for valuation premiums has moved to a secondary position.
In the upside scenario, if Q3 operating profit exceeds $1 billion, strong cash flow improvement will directly alleviate concerns over heavy asset expenditures. Once this condition is met, secondary market risk appetite can be maintained, supporting the continuation of a high valuation system with a 30x price-to-sales ratio.
In the downside scenario, if the $40 billion net loss for the full year continues to expand, high computing power costs will quickly erode liquidity premiums. Defensive de-risking funds will suppress risk appetite, triggering defensive sell-offs against overextended valuations.
A signal of judgment failure lies in the deviation between profit retention rate and expense growth in the prospectus. If a slowdown in computing power expense growth leads to a significant narrowing of losses, even if revenue falls short of expectations, the downside de-risking logic will fail; if profit retention rate continues to deteriorate, the upside valuation logic will immediately collapse.
The key variables to watch in the next 7 days are the confirmation standards in the public prospectus regarding subsequent computing power expense growth and profit retention rate.
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在【Has the policy bottom arrived, and is the bull market bottom far behind?】
Brothers, today's market situation explains more than the candlestick chart.
BTC broke through 72,000, rising from 63,000 over the past week, an increase of over 14%. More than $3 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with shorts completely wiped out.
The core driving force behind this rally is not technical or capital factors—it is policy.
**First, the most important signal: the White House has personally stepped in.**
On August 19 local time, Trump met with key executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, and others in the crypto industry at the White House Roosevelt Room, along with SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig.
Trump made three statements worthy of being recorded in industry history:
First, the government has discussed accumulating a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin and other crypto assets, noting that crypto "greatly alleviates the pressure on the dollar."
Second, he urged Congress to pass a "fair version" of the Clarity Act by September 15, saying this would allow the U.S. to lead China and other countries.
Third, the SEC is advancing rules to exempt certain digital assets from securities registration requirements, enabling crypto startups to raise funds legally in the U.S.
**This is the first time a sitting U.S. president has publicly supported Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset.**
**But things are far from settled.**
The biggest obstacle to the Clarity Act is controversy over ethics clauses. The Trump family has profited over $1.4 billion from crypto projects, and Democrats are demanding stricter conflict-of-interest restrictions. White House crypto advisor Witt, while expressing "genuine optimism and bullishness," also acknowledged that disputes over stablecoin yields and other issues need resolution.
After the Senate reconvenes on September 15, a procedural vote requiring 60 votes to advance will take place, needing support from at least 10 Democratic senators. The legislative window is narrowing, and after the November midterm elections, the new Congress will need to push it again. If the vote fails, the chance of passage this year will be extremely slim.
**More worrisome is the position structure.** U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors’ average holding cost is about $82,465, far above the current price. The past week's rise was driven more by forced short covering than by large-scale new capital inflows. The open interest in perpetual contracts has not significantly rebounded. The short squeeze momentum is fading; whether Bitcoin can continue to rise will increasingly depend on spot buying and ETF capital inflows taking over.
**The Federal Reserve is also sending mixed signals.**
The July FOMC minutes showed three members voted against a rate hike, while "many" participants said a hike would be necessary if inflation does not fall. Remember the names Harker, Kashkari, and Logan—they are the Fed’s most hawkish insiders.
However, macro analysis from Huachuang Securities points out that although monetary policy rules suggest the Fed "should" raise rates by about 60-220 basis points, the development of the AI industry, economic K-shaped divergence, and supply shocks limit both rate hikes and cuts. Acting rashly risks being reactive; the tendency is to keep rates unchanged this year. The market’s pricing for a September hike is now only about 35%.
**The most certain macro variable is the U.S. Treasury’s bond repurchase plan.** Treasury Secretary Yellen announced an expansion of bond repurchases, with monthly repurchase amounts expected to increase from $4 billion to a range of $10-30 billion. Based on this, Risk Dimensions’ CIO raised BTC’s long-term target to $180,000-$360,000 but emphasized that the short-term key is the Clarity Act.
**The market is at a crossroads—what’s next?**
The core logic of this rally is the confirmation of a "policy bottom"—the White House, SEC, and CFTC all turning positive simultaneously. This is a structural shift that cannot be simply explained as a "sentiment rebound." But a policy bottom does not equal a price bottom.
**Short-term direction:** $72,000 is a key technical level with many shorts concentrated here. If it holds, short covering will continue to push prices higher. But the short squeeze momentum is fading; subsequent moves depend on whether spot funds can take over.
**Entry points:** Do not chase highs near $72,000. If the price pulls back to $68,000-$69,000 and shows signs of stabilization, it is a worthy long entry zone with a stop loss below $66,000 and targets of $76,000-$77,000. If it breaks above $75,000 with sustained volume, wait for a pullback confirmation before adding positions.
**Mid-term key variable:** The Clarity Act vote on September 15. If passed, $68,000-$70,000 will become new bottom support; if it fails, a pullback to $63,000-$65,000 is highly likely.
**Core judgment for August:** The policy bottom has appeared, but the true bull market start requires sustained spot capital inflows and the finalization of the regulatory framework.
Comment below: **Do you think BTC at $72,000 is the end of the short squeeze or the start of the bull market?**
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*Personal opinion, not investment advice. The market has risks; be responsible for yourself.* Can $BTC BTC break through the 80,000 mark tonight? Amid the frenzy, it's important to see reality clearly🚨
In just a few trading days, BTC has surged from 64,000 to above 75,000, igniting sentiment across the entire network. On Polymarket, the probability of reaching 80,000 within the year has risen to 57%. Many are asking: tonight, can BTC directly break through the psychological barrier of 80,000?
Three major driving forces pushing towards 80,000:
1. Macro liquidity shift. The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and overall risk asset valuations opened up, laying the foundational soil for this rally.
2. U.S. crypto policy expectations fermenting. The White House crypto summit, expectations for the CLARITY Act, new SEC regulatory proposals, and the market's forward-looking imagination of compliant institutional funds entering the market. Spot ETF funds continue to flow back, and institutions like Morgan Stanley keep increasing BTC positions.
3. Epic short squeeze amplifying the rally. A large accumulation of shorts previously, after breaking key resistance, triggered a chain of liquidations. Tens of billions in short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, and passive buying from shorts continuously pushed prices higher, accelerating the upward momentum.
Realistic resistance blocking a direct hit to 80,000 tonight:
1. Short-term indicators are deeply overbought. After rapid consecutive rallies, 4-hour and daily indicators have entered overbought zones. The market's fear and greed index is in the greed zone, accumulating massive short-term profit-taking positions with strong motivation to cash out anytime.
Key point: A large part of this rally comes from short covering. Currently, most shorts have been cleared, and the short squeeze dividend is fading. Further gains must rely on new spot capital to take over; relying solely on closing positions is unlikely to continue violent rallies.
2. 80,000 is a strong psychological and technical resistance level. The closer to the round number, the heavier the selling pressure, with many previously trapped positions and short-term profit-taking concentrated. To break through in one go requires sustained volume; a low-volume breakout attempt is likely to result in a spike and pullback.
3. Most positive factors are still in the "expectation stage." The CLARITY Act is still being debated in Congress and has not been enacted; Middle East geopolitics and oil price rebounds can disturb U.S. Treasury yields at any time. If the macro environment reverses, the market can quickly turn.
Key reference ranges:
- Strong resistance: 77,000–78,000, followed by the 80,000 round number. Only with sustained volume breakthroughs is there a chance to touch 80,000; low-volume rallies are likely to spike and fall.
- First support: 73,500–74,000, converted support after this breakout. Holding here keeps the bullish structure intact.
- Critical watershed: 71,000. A decisive break below indicates this short-term bullish phase is over, and a deep correction should be watched for.
Objective conclusion:
There is a possibility of hitting 80,000 tonight, but directly and steadily standing above 80,000 is very difficult.
Short squeeze rallies tend to spike and touch the level, but to hold effectively requires continuous spot capital support.
More likely: intense high-level volatility, repeated shakeouts, and after some game theory, a challenge to 80,000 rather than a one-shot breakthrough.
Bull markets are not short of opportunities; don't get swept up in market frenzy chasing highs. Even with an overall upward trend, a 20% correction mid-way is normal in a bull market. Walmart’s quarter sends a more cautious signal than the headline beat suggests. FY2027 Q2 revenue of about $187.9B and adjusted EPS of $0.81 exceeded forecasts, yet US comparable sales growth of 2.6% trailed the 3.7%–3.8% consensus, while Q3 EPS guidance disappointed and shares fell about 9%.
The key tension is between demand and margin resilience. Using nearly $3B in tariff refunds mainly for price cuts and customer-experience improvements may support traffic, but it also underscores consumer price sensitivity. Higher full-year sales guidance is constructive; slower US sales and heavier discounting make execution quality the more important metric from here. Not advice, just analysis.
#WalmartBeatCompMissBTC just surpassed the 72,000 USD mark, and the biggest question right now is: can this rally continue or is it just a short-term bounce? Looking at the essence, the main driver boils down to one core factor – the market is betting again on the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. Recent US economic data has been cooling down continuously, making expectations for a rate cut in September increasingly clear. Lower interest rates mean reduced capital costs, easing pressure on the USD, and capital flows are starting to move ahead of expectations for a rate cut Why do I feel that $BTC and $ETH will rebound, but reaching new highs is difficult?
With the launch of ETFs and the Wall Street-ification of BTC and ETH, BTC and ETH have become denominator assets, with completely identical attributes.
ETH only amplifies BTC's volatility; it has little to do with RWA or on-chain activity. The core still depends on long-term U.S. Treasury yields, discount rates, and risk premiums.#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch If crypto assets are divided into core positions and opportunity positions, BTC is more suitable as a core position.
However, a core position does not mean fully invested. A more reasonable approach is to build it in 3 to 5 batches, keep cash on hand to cope with pullbacks, and avoid using high leverage. If $BTC pulls back and falls, this altcoin market will bleed heavily again.
In 2025, Bitcoin led the market rally, with many altcoins failing to keep up, and when Bitcoin turned bearish, altcoins experienced declines far greater than Bitcoin's.
Here is a set of data:
BTC reached a historical high of about $125,000 in early October 2025. However, during Bitcoin's rise, funds did not spread broadly to altcoins as in previous bull markets.
In Q1 2025, BTC market dominance rose to 59.1%
In Q2 2025, BTC market dominance rose to 62.1%
Throughout the first half of the year, market funds continued to favor BTC over altcoins. BTC hit new highs while altcoins not only failed to break new highs but also did not recover their prices from the beginning of the year.
In Q4 2025, BTC retraced 23.2% from its high, with a price around $87,520
For the whole year:
$BTC fell 6.4%
$ETH fell 11.1%
$SOL fell 34.3%
$DOGE fell 62%
Countless other altcoins fell more than 50%.
At this stage, with BTC dominating the scene again, it inevitably reminds people of the situation in 2025 when the "Bitcoin bull market" was mistaken for a "cryptocurrency bull market." The Treasury expands long-term bond repurchases, which sounds like cooling down the bond market
But what the bond market fears most is not a lack of buyers, but that everyone doubts this measure is sufficient
After long-term bond yields surged, the U.S. Treasury increased repurchases, which can indeed provide short-term relief. But soon the market starts asking: Have the real root causes—government bond supply, deficits, inflation, AI company borrowing, oil price pressures—been resolved?
I think this matter is crucial for risk assets
If long-term rates only technically fall, the U.S. stock market, BTC, and gold will all breathe a sigh of relief; but if investors believe the Treasury is just using a small bucket to fight a big fire, term premiums may continue to rise. Once the bond market loses confidence, all valuation models need to be recalculated
The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is not an obscure indicator
It acts like the gravitational force of the financial market
When it rises, long-term narratives become heavier; when it falls, risk appetite gets some breathing room
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Ethereum only touched 4000 in March and December 2024 before ending the bull market.
In the July 2025 cycle, it started facing selling pressure at 3800 (the wolf-cry effect), and many were worried whether it could hold above 4000 for the third time, so a lot rushed in early.
After consolidating for a while with a fake breakdown, it then smoothly surged all the way up to 4900.
This time, 4000 probably won't be a big resistance; 4500-4700 might be a tough barrier.
Because in 2021 and 2025, it never fully broke through 4900, everyone will be watching that number closely, and many will try to jump in early.
In 2025, the strong narrative of bitmine hoarding Ethereum pushed it to 4900. This time, it's unclear if there's an even stronger narrative; otherwise, the pressure in this range will be significant.
If it breaks through 5000, it will definitely be a celebration for the E-Guardians, making history. But for altcoins, breaking an all-time high is itself a rare event, so we shouldn't have too high expectations; if it's time to exit, then exit.
Multiple bear markets have taught us that taking profits is more important than gambling on the peak.
After all, this space has huge bull and bear swings, and repeated cyclical waves yield very considerable overall returns.
Later, I realized that cash is the moat that keeps you ahead of others. The core highlight of this policy is no longer limited to the $4 billion repurchase quota per period. The key signal released by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is that there is room for further expansion of the repurchase scale.
The specific policy adjustment is: from September 9 to November 4, the Treasury will raise the single repurchase quota for 10- to 30-year U.S. Treasuries from $2 billion to a minimum of $4 billion. The direct purpose of this measure is to improve liquidity in the long-term Treasury market and hedge against the pressure of the 30-year Treasury yield soaring to 5.34%, a new high since 2007.
A more pointed signal is that the Treasury stated it could continue to expand repurchases based on market dynamics, reflecting a reduced tolerance by the U.S. side for the sustained rise in long-term interest rates.
In the short term, this policy is positive for risk assets: the Treasury's increased holdings of long-term bonds push bond prices up and yields down, marginally easing the overall financial environment. The transmission path is lower Treasury yields → weaker dollar, which in turn boosts gold and Bitcoin prices while alleviating valuation pressure on U.S. stocks.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
However, it is worth noting that although Treasury yields briefly fell after the initial announcement of balance sheet expansion, they subsequently rebounded again, reflecting the market's general judgment that simple repurchase operations cannot solve deep structural contradictions such as the high U.S. fiscal deficit, inflation resilience, and expanding debt scale. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Bitcoin at 74,000: The bears are dead, but the bull market is not yet born
BTC breaks through 74,000.
In one sentence to summarize the current market: the bears are dead, but the bull market has not yet come alive.
This is not pretentious market jargon, but the most authentic snapshot of the current market. A 14% surge in just two days, over three billion dollars in short positions across the network vaporized, the sound of intense liquidations crisp like ice suddenly cracking. This is a textbook example of an extreme short squeeze, with long-accumulated crowded short positions liquidated all at once, forcibly pushing the price higher step by step.
But while everyone is wildly chasing the rally and shouting that the bull market has restarted, we must calmly ask: who exactly is buying in this surge? And who is selling?
The logic behind this rally is clear and straightforward.
The U.S. Treasury has increased long-term bond repurchases, signaling a disguised QE easing, bringing marginal improvement to macro liquidity; the White House is actively promoting cryptocurrency compliance legislation, clearing obstacles and handing out entry tickets for institutional funds.
Macro easing plus policy tailwinds, a dual engine igniting this fiery surge.
Yet beneath the lively market surface, the divergence signals on-chain are glaring: the higher the price rises, the more calmly the whales are withdrawing funds.
During this rebound, large holding wallets have been steadily reducing and cashing out, quietly distributing high-level chips. Smart money is steadily exiting, while those taking the baton are retail investors forced to flip to long positions by the extreme short squeeze, and momentum-driven funds swept up by market sentiment.
Many mistakenly believe a violent surge signals the start of a bull market charge.
But a true bull market is always supported by only two things: the flame of sentiment and the fuel of capital.
Now the market’s feverish sentiment is fully ignited, but the real incremental fuel is seriously lacking.
The current driving force behind the rise almost entirely comes from passive buying due to contract liquidations; the derivatives frenzy overshadows real spot demand. Spot trading volume growth lags far behind contract enthusiasm, meaning this surge is just the stretched emotional leverage exerting force, not a solid foundation of incremental bull market.
74,000 has never been the market’s end point, but the ultimate test.
It tests not the accuracy of predicting ups and downs, but human nature and discipline:
Can you hold to your trading logic amid the unified bullish chants and everyone’s firm belief that "this time is different"?
Can you soberly ask, when the candles blaze and greed spreads: what comes after the rise?
The market never lacks opportunities, it always lacks sober holders with bullets left.
You can celebrate the profits from this rebound, but never become completely intoxicated in the bull frenzy.
The bears’ fall is only a corrective move, not the establishment of a bull market.
74,000: lively as it is, keep your clarity.
The market still has warmth, the trend is not yet formed; taking profits without greed, following the trend without blind obedience, is the best solution now.
#BTC #BitcoinMarket #MarketReview #TradingAwareness #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ [BTC Weekly Review and Projection: Is the Current Breakout a Bull Market Restart or Another Fake Breakout?]
Reviewing the cycle trend from the 2022 bear market to now, the bull-bear transition band has always been the core benchmark for determining major trend reversals:
Characteristics of a fake breakout (red circles/red arrows): Whether during the 2022 downtrend or the previous rebounds, although the price pierced the transition band, as long as it cannot effectively hold above it for more than 3 weeks, it is only a "bull trap fake breakout" in the bear market, followed by a larger pullback.
Confirmation of a true breakout (green circles/green arrows): A genuine bull-bear transition must meet the condition of strongly holding above the transition band for more than 3 consecutive weeks, and after a pullback test confirming no break below, this signals the start of a major bull market.
Current trend (blue circles/blue arrows): BTC strongly surged this week breaking through the transition band, but this is only the initial breakout stage. History does not simply repeat, but often rhymes similarly—I personally lean toward the probability that major funds will struggle to hold above the band for 3 weeks, making a fake breakout followed by another bottom test more likely.
Future trading strategy:
Bull defense: Avoid rushing to chase highs! At least wait for 3 consecutive weekly closes above the bull-bear band and a confirmed pullback before adding positions on the right side.
Short-term/swing: Treat the current position as a key resistance zone; if in the next two weeks there are long upper shadows or stagnation followed by a breakdown, consider reducing positions on rallies or strategically placing defensive short positions.
Be patient, let the bullets fly for a few more weeks!