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Let's do a simple summary of this morning's market.
For Bitcoin, there is basically no clear direction to trade yet; currently, we are just waiting for a signal. Personally, I think this wave will probably challenge 80000, but it might just miss by a wick, then enter a new consolidation range. After all, a bull market likely won't just keep rising straight up like this.
For Ethereum, I mentioned yesterday that its trend is relatively stronger compared to Bitcoin. Sure enough, it broke through 2500 early this morning, reaching a high near 2550. In the short term, there is still no clear direction. The next resistance is at 3000, but whether it can go straight to 3000 or just miss by a wick is hard to say. I will let everyone know once there is a direction.
For Solana, the resistance remains around 100, and there are no good short-term opportunities. Everyone should continue to observe.
Doge (Dogecoin) has been rising steadily without signs of weakness. Don't short it lightly now; wait for a signal before trading. The next resistance level in this wave can be seen at 0.11.
OKB has nothing special; it is oscillating within a range. You can continue to buy regularly with fixed amounts.
Overall, the market is a bit overheated now, so it's hard to grasp the trend. What we need to do is wait for the right timing before making a move. In the current market, opening a position casually can easily get stopped out by wicks. If there is a new direction in the future, I will report to everyone immediately.$BTC
Market sentiment is really strong, Bitcoin has surged wildly to around 80,000, and the group chats that were silent before have all become active these past few days. It might not be appropriate to pour cold water at this moment, but I still want to share my judgment.
I think this rally looks more like a return to Bitcoin's valuation. Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 last October, firstly due to the 1011 black swan event, and secondly because it was continuously drained by the US stock market. Now the Treasury has announced repurchasing long-term bonds, and Bassett said the scale will be increased. As long-term bond yields fall, the market is revaluing risk assets — and Bitcoin and gold are the most direct hedges against a weakening dollar and inflation.
There are two reasons that make me cautious:
1⃣ The positive factors behind this rise are actually not strong enough, as I mentioned in previous tweets. Also, Bitcoin ETFs saw a total inflow of over 1.6 billion this week, the best week since 2026; Ethereum ETFs had a single-day net inflow of 220 million on August 20, also the best day this year. The strength of the funds driving this rally is powerful, and just saying it's Wall Street doesn't seem very convincing to me.
2⃣ Cycle patterns. Historically, the time from the bull market peak to the bear market bottom is usually about a year. We have only passed 10 months since last October; moreover, this round's correction is much smaller than the previous two rounds. It can be said that the market structure has changed — traditional capital participation, regulatory intervention, further differentiation between mainstream and altcoins — but I still feel that 57,000 does not look like the bottom for this cycle BTC has been really strong this week.
It surged from around $64,000 all the way up to nearly $79,000, with a weekly gain exceeding 22% at one point, potentially marking the strongest single-week performance since March 2023.
And this time, it’s not just retail investors calling a bull market.
On August 20, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day inflow of about $606 million, while a large number of shorts were forced to cover, further amplifying the rally.
ETH has also started to catch up.
On August 20, the US spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of about $221 million, hitting a single-day high not seen in nearly 10 months.
Seeing this, many might start wondering:
Is the bull market back?
I’d rather pour some cold water on that.
Because the biggest change now isn’t that BTC has risen.
It’s that:
Market sentiment has shifted from "no one dares to buy" to suddenly "fear of missing out."
Between these two sentiments, there are often just a few candlesticks.
So I won’t immediately call for the next stop at $100,000 just because BTC broke through $70,000 or even touched $79,000.
What I want to see more is:
After BTC pulls back to $70,000, will capital still be willing to step in?
If $70,000 turns from a resistance level into a support level,
then the significance of this rally is completely different.
But if it quickly falls back after the surge...
What we might be seeing now is just a very intense short squeeze plus capital inflow rally. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $BTC accumulated a large number of short positions in the early market. After the price reversal, many shorts were forcibly liquidated, further driving the coin price rapidly higher. The scale of short position liquidations in 24 hours is huge.
Long-term holders account for 83% of the positions, with a large amount of chips locked up, reducing selling pressure at low market levels.
The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, and the market expects marginal easing of dollar liquidity. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields declined, driving gold, Bitcoin, and other risk assets to rise simultaneously.
Holding the 73,000 support level, after consolidation and accumulation, it will test the 80,000 mark again;
If capital inflows cannot be sustained, a deep correction will occur, retesting the key defense line at 69,000‑71,000.
Short-term gains are huge and overbought, with a large correction possible at any time;
Changes in U.S. regulatory policies will bring intense volatility;
ETF capital inflows are unsustainable, and once they turn to outflows again, the market is prone to reversal;
Contract leverage rising will amplify price spikes and liquidations.
Bitcoin completed a bottom reversal in August, with mid-term market signals improving, but it is already overbought in the short term and not suitable for chasing highs.
Key indicators to watch going forward: ① Whether ETF capital inflows can continue; ② Whether the first support at 73,000‑74,000 can hold. If it holds, the rebound will continue; if broken, this round of the uptrend needs to be reassessed. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC This surge, is it really just a "rebound"?🚀
This week, $BTC has risen a bit too sharply.
From about $63,000 at the start of the week, it surged to around $78,000, and intraday on Friday it even approached $79,500, with a weekly increase of over 20%, marking one of the strongest weekly performances in more than three years.
More importantly, this rise was not driven by a single factor but ignited by three forces simultaneously:
🔥 The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, pressuring yields and clearly boosting market risk appetite.
🏛️ Trump met with crypto industry executives and actively promoted the Clarity Act, with signals from the SEC and CFTC becoming more friendly.
💰 This week, spot ETF inflows exceeded $1.6B, combined with large-scale short liquidations, directly causing a fierce short squeeze.
Now, the real test for the market has arrived:
Can $80,000 hold?
The RSI has already entered the overbought zone, and with thinner liquidity over the weekend, short-term volatility or even a pullback is not surprising.
But if $BTC breaks through $80K with volume and can hold steady, then this might no longer be just an ordinary rebound—the market has even started to reconsider: is a new bull market confirming?👀
Of course, the $100K year-end target has also been raised again by some institutions.
#DailyOrbit $SEI Sei's on-chain transaction volume reached $38 billion in Q2, up 220% year-on-year, with daily active addresses surging 175%.
Then the night session plummeted over 7.5%, wiping out more than $2.5 billion in market cap.
Data exploded, price exploded, both happening simultaneously.
The reason is straightforward: 150 million SEI tokens unlocked this week, with early institutions and market makers taking profits.
There are still doubts about order book matching engine delays under extreme market conditions; the official statement claims the issue is resolved, but the market seems skeptical.
This is the harsh reality of the secondary market: once all the good news is priced in, it turns bearish. After the selling pressure subsides, will you get on board or watch from the sidelines? #Sei $SEI The most easily misunderstood point about this BTC rally is that people are still treating it as ordinary Risk-on.
BTC rose over 20% in a week, ETF funds are flowing back in, the US dollar is weakening, and gold is rising simultaneously.
This looks more like the market has started trading another issue:
US long-term debt and dollar credit.
The Treasury initially intended to stabilize the bond market by expanding long-term Treasury buybacks, but now funds are instead flowing into scarce assets like gold and BTC.
Short squeeze is responsible for igniting the move, ETFs are responsible for the relay.
What really needs to be watched is no longer "why BTC is rising," but:
If $80K is firmly held, will this rally shift from a short squeeze to genuine institutional demand?Bitcoin surged violently, so why is Saylor's $STRC preferred stock, which once plummeted to $75, still stubbornly stuck around $95 and just can't break through the $100 par value?
This mechanism creates a vicious cycle and a high-interest paradox: the cheaper STRC gets, combined with the discounted actual yield reaching 14%-16%, the stronger the buying pressure.
But once the price approaches the $100 par value, the yield shrinks back to 12%, and the company might even cut dividends at any time. The closer it gets to par, the fewer people are willing to take over.
Forced price support turns into an arbitrage cash-out machine.
To maintain credibility, Strategy sells Bitcoin and issues new shares, using real cash to repurchase STRC at high prices on the secondary market.
This hands Wall Street a risk-free arbitrage opportunity: short MSTR stock while buying discounted STRC, just waiting for the company to use cash to buy back at high prices, causing continuous cash outflow.
✍️ Future outlook prediction
▶️ Short-term can touch $100
With remaining buyback capacity and high interest, pushing to par value in early September is not difficult.
▶️ Price surge will inevitably face selling pressure
Once it hits $100, low-level bottom-fishers and arbitrage funds will collectively take profits, likely causing the price to spike then fall back.
▶️ Long-term range-bound oscillation
Without a major macro bull market to fully absorb its leverage risk, it’s hard for it to hold the par value long-term, most likely continuing to oscillate between $93 and $99.
DYOR August 22 Crypto Market Daily: BTC Approaches $80,000, U.S. Regulation Moving from "Talk" to Implementation Stage
If you only look at the price, today's crypto market easily gives the impression of a "bull market reboot."
Bitcoin hit a weekly high of about $79,463, with a weekly gain of over 23%, then pulled back to around $77,000; Ethereum also climbed back near $2,500, with a 7-day gain of about 34%. Meanwhile, mainstream assets like XRP and Solana also strengthened, and market risk appetite clearly rebounded.
However, I believe what truly deserves attention today is not whether BTC breaks through $80,000, but what structural changes lie behind this rally.
This time, the market shows three signals simultaneously:
Institutional funds re-entering, U.S. policies continuing to favor crypto assets, and improved macro liquidity expectations.
The combination of these three forms the most important logic to observe in this rally.What should those who are short or missed the boat do now?
You can refer to what happened after the initial spikes in the previous two cycles.
In the 2019 cycle, the bottom didn't give any chance for a pullback to exit; it pulled up, consolidated on the platform for a while, then surged 4x straight away.
In the 2023 cycle, after the initial spike at the bottom, it rallied for over a month, then pulled back 20%, giving shorts a chance to exit and bulls a chance to enter, but it quickly pushed back to new highs.
I don't know how this cycle will go. I only know that many have missed the boat this time. The article I referenced explains the reasons. So if there's a pullback, I expect those who missed out and short positions stopping losses will be quickly bought up. At the same time, my view is that Q4 will see a pullback in the US stock market, but by then, if BTC has already reached a relatively high level, shorts might already be trapped.
That's how bear market bottoms work: a two to three month window to get in determines beta returns for the next three years. Many positions that miss the initial move find it hard to catch up. I don't plan to move my spot holdings for at least the next two years; if there's a pullback, I'll add more.Reasons for the surge in mainstream coins in the crypto circle:
Dual engines: the "faucet" of the Treasury and the "policy card" of the White House
This round of rebound has two clear catalysts, one from macro liquidity and one from regulatory policy.
First engine: The U.S. Treasury opens the liquidity gate.
The most critical policy turning point this week occurred on Wednesday—U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the scale of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases will be increased by at least double. After the announcement, long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, and market risk appetite quickly improved. BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas clearly pointed out that the core factor driving this round of the market is precisely this policy.
The essence of this operation is to inject liquidity into the market by lowering long-term yields. After yields decline, investors have more disposable funds, and their preference for risk assets increases accordingly. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold is currently at its highest level since the pandemic, further strengthening the narrative of cryptocurrencies as a "devaluation hedge." #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC short-term surge ≠ official start of a bull market. For now, it can only be considered a strong rebound + a technical bull market signal; whether the bull market truly begins still needs to be verified over the next 2-4 weeks.
1. The essence of this rise: three main driving forces
1. Policy expectation benefits (emotional trigger)
Trump expressed support for crypto and pushed the CLARITY Act, leading the market to expect a looser regulatory stance in the US. This is only an expectation; the bill has not yet been voted on or enacted, so the benefits have not been fully realized.
2. Marginal improvement in macro liquidity
US Treasury repo expansion and a brief drop in yields caused a general rebound in risk assets. However, the Fed's high interest rate environment has not fundamentally changed.
3. Epic short squeeze (surge amplifier, most critical)
After two months of sideways movement, a massive amount of short leverage accumulated. Once the price broke through, shorts collectively liquidated to stop losses, passively buying Bitcoin. The more it rose, the more shorts closed out. A large part of the short-term 20% increase comes from short covering, not entirely from continuous new inflows of fresh capital.
In summary, the bullish signals 📶 are excellent; a pullback can be an opportunity to go long, but it is not yet confirmed as a true bull return. Manage positions carefully and strictly avoid heavy short positions. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ @OKX星球 @OKX成长学院 Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,900, up over 6% in 24 hours, and at one point touched $79,500 intraday, just shy of the $80,000 mark. This week's cumulative gain is about 23%, potentially marking its best weekly performance since March 2023. Ethereum broke through $2,500, currently quoted at $2,510, up about 8.5% in 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 34%. According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced $1.25 billion in liquidations, with $1.08 billion in short liquidations, and over 150,000 people worldwide were liquidated. The core logic behind this sustained rise is still those few things resonating with each other. Treasury buybacks are the biggest catalyst—U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent announced that the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks will be at least doubled, long-term Treasury yields have retreated, market risk appetite has rapidly improved, and liquidity has been directly injected into risk assets. Regulatory expectations continue to rise—Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House on Wednesday, urging Congress to push the Clarity Act to break the deadlock. Meanwhile, the SEC proposed issuance exemptions for certain crypto assets, and the CFTC chairman said that even if the bill does not pass, rulemaking will be advanced. The short squeeze continues—over the past three days, about $4.5 billion in short positions in the crypto market have been liquidated, with passive buying pushing prices even higher, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. Additionally, ETF funds have started to flow in with real money—this week, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $1 billion, potentially marking the largest weekly inflow since January this year, indicating that short trades are not the only optionYesterday I just judged the rotation as failed, but ZEC rose 31% in 24h again, proving me wrong.
Yesterday I classified the surge in ZEC, BCH, and XRP as pulses. At 09:43, $ZEC was still +30.98% in 24h; within 1h, ZEC +2.69%, $XRP +2.50%, $SUI +1.65%, while BTC was only +0.06%. The "rotation failure" needs to be revised halfway.
But I still don't fully acknowledge the rotation: $BCH is -0.68% in 1h, and BTC's hourly volume is still down 57.8%. If in the next hour at least two of ZEC, XRP, and SUI continue to rise, and BTC holds above 78,000, then I will accept that the rotation is back.
Do you think I'm still stubborn? If you want to refute, give me a confirmation condition.
Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion.
#OKX星球 #BTC #ZEC #XRP #SUI ETH has risen about 35% so far this week.
What does this mean?
This is the second time in about 15 months that ETH has seen such a significant weekly surge. The last time was around May 5th last year, with a weekly increase of about 39%.
You could say, after fifteen tough months, we finally see a truly impressive weekly bullish candle again.
But I want to highlight a very important risk:
The price increase is close, but the volume is far from matching it.
That 39% weekly bullish candle last year was clearly volume-driven, and every subsequent weekly rally was supported by volume, ultimately pushing ETH from around 1800 to about 4900.
And this time?
The weekly gain has reached 35%, but the current volume is only about 30% of that big bullish candle last year.
The price is running too fast, but the money hasn’t kept pace.
This is the biggest risk right now.
Additionally, the 2400–2450 range has always been a very important resistance platform.
Although the price has now broken through it, I don’t yet consider it a true breakout.
There is still insufficient volume support above 2400, and a pullback confirmation is needed.
At the same time, I am revising my previous judgment about August:
Originally, I expected a return to around 2000 by the end of the month, but this weekly candle has far exceeded expectations, so 2000 is basically out of reach this month and should be reconsidered in the Q4 scenario.Up 22% in a week, shorts liquidated for 2.7 billion, but Lucy Gazmararian says: there's one last round of cleansing, another 20% drop.
This lady is the founder of Token Bay Capital. She said the market was previously highly leveraged on shorts, and those shorts have been wiped out. But according to the cycle pattern, before the bear market ends, there is usually one last drop, about 20%. Calculating, if 76943 drops another 20%, it will be around 61500. In other words, this week's rise was in vain and might have to be given back.
Her original words were: "Stick to the long-term investment logic, Bitcoin is a game against currency devaluation." That sounds great, but the subtext is: don't mess around in the short term, it's still a highly volatile playground with many tools for betting both ways, retail investors going in are just giving away money.
The core driving force behind this rise is actually the US Treasury intervening in the bond market. Long-term Treasury yields were pushed down, and risk assets collectively recovered. But this is not an improvement in the fundamentals of the crypto space; it's just a temporary relief in the macro environment. The CLARITY Act is still being pushed, but the chance of it passing is "relatively slim." If the bill fails, the momentum behind this rise might disappear.
Also, look at the data: Bitcoin's high this January was 94820, last October's all-time high was 126198. Now at 76943, it hasn't even returned to this year's high, let alone the all-time high. A 22% weekly gain looks scary, but in the bigger cycle, it might just be a rebound.
$DOGE $BTC $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $ZEC Our boss has already issued the order to sell off a large amountThe Bitcoin daily report has been sent to the private board.
Partners, please check it.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX $BTC BTC hits $78K, up 22% this week – biggest weekly gain in 3 years.
3 drivers:
1️⃣ Treasury doubling bond buybacks to $4B/op, suppressing yields → risk-on.
2️⃣ $1.6B ETF inflows this week. BlackRock $500M+ in one day. Whales added $2.75B BTC in 60 days.
3️⃣ $2.5B in shorts liquidated in 3 days.
Next test: $80K. Breakout depends on Jackson Hole dovish signals.
Policy + liquidity + squeeze = triple tailwind. Watch Fed and ETF data.
$BTC
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze This week, Bitcoin surged from 62,000 to 78,000. On the surface, it looks like a short squeeze, but the real substance lies in the meeting held in Washington.
On August 19, Trump held a crypto summit at the White House, attended by the CEOs of Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple, as well as the chairs of the SEC and CFTC.
The day after the meeting, Trump publicly urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The core of this bill is one thing—to end the years-long jurisdictional tug-of-war between the SEC and CFTC by clearly defining what counts as a security and what counts as a commodity.
Interestingly, on the same day, CFTC Chair Michael Selig made a more direct statement: even if the CLARITY Act doesn’t pass, the crypto industry will still get regulatory rules, as the CFTC is moving forward under its existing legal authority.
In other words: Congressional disputes won’t delay the executive branch’s work. The White House is pushing the bill, the CFTC is ready to bypass Congress and issue rules directly, and the SEC is simultaneously advancing the Regulation Crypto Assets proposal—exempting registration for up to $5 million over four years, and exemptions for up to $75 million within 12 months.
All three tracks are moving forward simultaneously, aligned in direction. Whether the bill passes or not, the rules are coming. This signal is more important than the 78,000 price itself—the regulatory environment is shifting from a “gray area” to a “compliance framework,” and institutional access channels are being opened one by one.
$BTC $ETH Bitcoin mining company Canaan's stock price rose more than 25% on Friday, MARA Holdings continued to climb after nearly a 16% increase on Thursday, and digital asset treasury company Strive, which holds over 20,000 BTC, rose more than 16% on Friday.
Bitcoin surged above $79,000, with mining companies and publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin benefiting first. Miners' conditions are improving, with hashrate prices rising from about $27 per PH/s in early July to over $31, an increase of approximately 15%.
On Thursday, Trump again called on Congress to advance the CLARITY Act. But on the same day, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said something more thought-provoking: even if Congress fails to pass the CLARITY Act, the crypto industry will still receive regulatory rules. Selig stated that the CFTC is evaluating multiple crypto regulatory measures and can formulate relevant rules based on existing legal authority. The White House is pushing legislation, and the CFTC is preparing to bypass Congress to directly issue rules. Both paths are moving forward simultaneously but with aligned direction.
At the same time, Trump also indicated that the U.S. government might purchase Bitcoin on a "large scale" in the future. Two years ago, no one would have dared to imagine a sitting president publicly saying the government might buy Bitcoin on a large scale. Regardless of whether the purchase happens, this statement itself shows that Bitcoin has shifted from "whether to allocate" to "how to allocate." The structure is changing, the direction is changing, but at the $78,000 level, the real test is whether spot buying can continue to hold next week. $BTC In the early hours of August 22, ETH broke through $2,500, with a 24-hour increase of over 7%.
The ETH/BTC ratio is rebounding, and the window for Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin is opening.
At the same time, BlackRock's ETF address purchased about 11,098 BTC (worth approximately $852 million) and 132,769 ETH (worth approximately $316 million) in the past two days.
BlackRock is buying, and buying two types of assets. Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of nearly $221 million in one day, the largest single-day scale since October 2025. Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $606 million on Thursday, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $503 million, or 83%. The total net inflow over four days is about $1.61 billion, and the net inflow in August is $2.07 billion, making it the best-performing month of 2026.
Grayscale's GBTC had sustained premiums during the market frenzy in 2021, and now BlackRock has taken over this role—not only buying but continuously, in large amounts, almost every day. BlackRock bought $852 million worth of BTC and $316 million worth of ETH within two days, marking four consecutive trading days of net inflows. Some funds are closing—Hashdex's DEFI Bitcoin ETF shut down on August 17 due to its small size ($14.7 million vs. IBIT's $47 billion)—while others are opening larger positions. $BTC $ETH The most noteworthy thing this week isn't how much Bitcoin has risen, but that it is rising together with gold.
After U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen announced at least doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, long-term bond yields briefly fell but soon came under pressure again.
The dollar weakened, and Bitcoin and gold surged in sync—Bitcoin's weekly gain exceeded 25%, breaking through $78,000, while gold climbed to a three-month high.
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold is at its highest level since the pandemic. Barclays strategists believe the dollar is the "biggest loser" in this round of yield suppression, and fiscal concerns have reignited the market's safe-haven demand for gold. A senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management put it more bluntly: "The Treasury can influence liquidity and market sentiment, but it cannot sustainably suppress the fundamental forces of economic growth, inflation, deficits, and supply." The current U.S. fiscal deficit is close to $2 trillion, and rising oil prices are exacerbating inflation risks.
Bitcoin is up, gold is up, and the dollar is down. These three things happening simultaneously point in the same direction—the market is pricing in "currency depreciation," not trading on "risk appetite recovery." How long can short-term liquidity, propped up by fiscal intervention, last? Even Yellen herself said the market is "a bit overreacting." Once the tools in her toolbox are exhausted, the real macro fundamentals will retake pricing power. $BTC $ETH Around 78,000, the fear and greed index hit 75, while a week ago it was still 36 — jumping directly from "fear" to "greed".
Coinglass's liquidation data drew two lines: if BTC falls below 73,523, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream platforms will reach 2.523 billion; if it rises above 81,137, the short liquidation intensity will be 1.446 billion.
The scale of bets on both sides is different, with the long position risk exposure nearly twice that of the short. The price has already risen to 78,000; whoever can't hold on first will be the first to exit.
Ray Dalio from Bridgewater's advice is worth a closer look: underweight bonds, allocate 10%-15% to gold, and hold a "small amount" of Bitcoin to hedge debt risk. The direct driver of Bitcoin's rise this week is short squeeze liquidations, while gold is rising without relying on this — the 90-day correlation between gold and Bitcoin has reached its highest since the pandemic. These two assets may be following the same logical line, but their driving forces differ.
78,000 has already been touched; 80,000 is the next stop. But Standard Chartered has already downgraded its year-end 100,000 forecast to a "low risk". The 50-day moving average is still at 63,976, and the 200-day moving average at 69,005 — until the short-term moving averages catch up, this price remains uncertain.
$BTC $ETH Micron CEO plans to cash out approximately $39.59 million for two consecutive months, with executive regularized selling clashing with market high-level risk appetite. The dominant factor in short-term chip game shifts from fundamentals to high-level absorption capacity and liquidity efficiency.
Micron ($MU) CEO filed to sell 40,000 shares on August 21, 2026, with an estimated amount of about $39.59 million. This $40 million-level reduction, reported mid-month and executed at month-end consecutively, under event risk framework, amplifies tail-end market fluctuations through sensitivity to market risk appetite.
Currently, the driving factors are ranked as follows: first, the psychological digestion of regular selling events by capital; second, the liquidity depth’s efficiency in absorbing large sell orders; and lastly, the suppression of tech stock valuations by macro inflation and interest rate policies. Executive preset sell orders themselves do not change fundamentals, but the concentrated release of chips tests the thickness of buy orders at trading desks at specific points.
The trigger for an upward scenario is that after the concentrated entry of 40,000 shares sell orders, Micron’s stock price quickly recovers intraday losses without panic-driven volume expansion. If the $39.59 million selling pressure is fully absorbed by institutional hedging within the first hour after market open, it indicates that high-level risk appetite remains robust, directly activating short-covering logic and triggering a short squeeze.
The trigger for a downward scenario is a gap in buy orders during the sell order release, causing the stock price to break key support levels accordingly. If the approximately $40 million sell signals for two consecutive months cause retail and momentum funds to follow suit and exit, position squeezes will rapidly turn concentrated selling into a technical sell-off wave.
The invalidation condition depends on the market’s re-assessment of the nature of this transaction. If subsequent disclosures show the 40,000-share transaction belongs to a normal routine execution of a 10b5-1 preset trading plan, market sentiment recovery will quickly narrow the discount space caused by the selling, invalidating the aforementioned downward scenario.
The most important observation variables in the next 7 days are the changes in order book depth when the actual matching of 40,000 shares occurs around August 24, and whether implied volatility of put options in the derivatives market shows abnormal spikes.
#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议Here are some data points for everyone to judge the market outlook:
1. $BTC $ETH saw an inflow of $517 million yesterday, hitting a three-and-a-half-month high, real money flowing in.
2. In the past 3 days, crypto market short liquidations exceeded $4 billion, with an estimated half belonging to Bitcoin, over $2 billion.
3. In other words, with less than $3 billion in buying, the coin price rose from 64k to 76k.
3. Looking at Coinbase's premium chart, the first wave of the rally is within the red box (the first rapid premium increase), driven by real money from Americans, accompanied by the first day of massive short squeezes. Judging from the subsequent sharp premium drop, it might be a wash trading, but the coin price was supported by spot + futures. The reason is that after massive liquidations, the futures open interest did not decrease much, indicating some funds stepped in, and ETFs started to flow in heavily. Then at the overnight US stock market open, another wave of real money came in (the red area shrank quickly). The open interest increase was small, indicating US spot still dominated, so the risk remains low. Now during Asian hours, the discount is widening again (the red area expands again), and futures open interest has increased somewhat, indicating some are starting to leverage long positions, and risk is beginning to accumulate.
In summary, Trump's policies + long bond yield suppression have driven this Bitcoin rally. Rapid rises will gather short-term risk. Those who missed out need not worry, and holders need not panic. What you need to know is that the US crypto trading channel is very smooth, so sentiment lasting 2-3 days is very normal. If it lasts longer, it will fade. When the gains become too large combined with fading sentiment, a correction will occur. At that time, if you still believe the bear market is over or the cost-performance ratio is right, entering then will be cheaper than now. Bitcoin rose, gold also rose, and the US dollar fell.
Three things happening simultaneously point not to a "risk appetite recovery," but to a "currency devaluation trade."
On August 19, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced doubling the long-term Treasury buyback scale from 2 billion to 4 billion.
On the day the news came out, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly fell but was pressured again the next day, basically flat for the week. The Treasury's effort to suppress long-term bond yields lasted less than a day.
But the US dollar did fall. Yellen herself said the market "overreacted a bit." While the dollar weakened, gold rose above $4600, and Bitcoin surged over 25% in a single week. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold is at its highest level since the pandemic.
Barclays strategists believe the dollar is the "biggest loser" in this round of yield suppression, and renewed fiscal concerns have reignited the market's demand for gold as a safe haven. Manulife's senior investment manager put it more bluntly: "The Treasury can influence liquidity and market sentiment but cannot continuously suppress fundamental forces."
Bridgewater's Ray Dalio gave a specific allocation recommendation: underweight bonds, allocate 10%-15% to gold, and hold a "small amount" of Bitcoin to hedge debt risk. He expects the US may experience a debt crisis "within three years, plus or minus two years."
$BTC 📌 Sector Strength | Distinguishing Between Independent Coin Trends and Sector Resonance Trends
Many traders see a single coin strengthening independently and immediately conclude that a sector trend has arrived.
When a certain coin shows an independent upward trend,
it’s easy to jump to the conclusion:
"The entire sector trend is here."
"All targets in the same sector will follow with a catch-up rally."
From the perspective of capital allocation, a single coin’s strength may just be due to isolated capital positioning and does not mean the entire sector is favored by funds.
A true sector trend must be accompanied by multiple targets within the sector strengthening simultaneously.
The biggest change in the current market:
Previously, when a hot target started, other targets in the same sector generally followed the rally;
Now, capital is highly fragmented, and it’s common to see "a single coin strengthening while the sector remains stagnant."
Three conditions to confirm a sector trend:
① Most core targets within the sector strengthen simultaneously;
② Overall sector trading volume rises in sync;
③ The sector trend sustains for several days, not just a single-day isolated spike.
Current focus:
🟢 Core Observations
$BTC
The market benchmark; only when overall market risk appetite is stable is sector resonance more likely to occur.
$ETH
The core anchor of DeFi and public chain sectors; sector trends rely on the ETH environment support.
$SOL
Strong internal ecological linkage; sector effects often first appear here.
$ZEC $KAITO $CORE etc.:
More independent in nature, often showing isolated trends with weaker sector linkage.
👀 Watchlist
$DOGE
An independent sentiment-driven target with very low linkage to other sectors, almost no sector reference value.
$WLD $TAO
Leaders in the AI sector; their movements have some linkage effect and can mutually verify sector strength.
🔴 Caution Needed
Don’t layout other weak targets in the same sector just because a single coin is rising, hoping for a catch-up rally.
Without sector capital resonance,
catch-up rallies are unlikely and you risk bearing the downside alone.
A signal worth noting:
A single target continuously hitting new highs,
while other targets in the same sector keep weakening, with increasing divergence.
This indicates a market shift:
The era of broad and catch-up rallies is gradually ending;
Independent alpha trends will become more common.
Don’t habitually gamble on catch-up rallies.
More often:
Respect strength differentiation and prioritize strong mainline targets.
⟡ Value sector resonance
⟡ Don’t blindly gamble on catch-up rallies
⟡ Follow the trend and track strong performers On Friday, Bitcoin briefly touched $79,500, approaching the $80,000 mark, with a cumulative weekly gain expanding to about 23%.
But the most direct fuel driving this rally was the short squeeze.
In the past three days, over $4 billion worth of short positions in the crypto market were liquidated. Of that, about $2.75 billion in Bitcoin shorts were forcibly closed within 24 hours. On Thursday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $606 million, the largest single-day inflow since May, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $503 million, or 83%.
Net inflows into ETFs have totaled about $1.61 billion over four consecutive days, with August's cumulative inflows exceeding $2.07 billion, making it the best-performing month since 2026.
After the shorts were cleared, prices continued to push higher. Data from Greeks.live shows that about 24,000 BTC options are expiring this week, with the maximum pain point at $67,000 and a notional value of $1.82 billion. The current price at $78,000 is well above the maximum pain point — the options market has fully shifted to the long side, with long gamma exposure highly dispersed and short gamma almost negligible. In the same market, short squeezes, option expirations, and continuous ETF inflows are all happening simultaneously, pointing in the same direction.
However, whether the $78,000 level can hold depends on whether spot buying can sustain it. Shorts can be squeezed once, but not twice. A true trend requires real money stepping in to support it. $BTC On August 18, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a draft "Regulation Crypto Assets" rule; Published in the Federal Register on August 21, with public comment submissions ending on October 20. Clarify the phase: This is a proposal for public comment, not a final rule that has already taken effect; the text and threshold may still be adjusted. The draft provides two relatively clear financing paths. First, eligible startups can issue up to $5 million in crypto assets in a single transaction over four years; Second, another financing exemption allows issuers to raise up to $75 million every 12 months, but must provide financial statements and continue reporting. Both types of exemptions require disclosure of required information to investors and remain subject to anti-fraud and anti-manipulation provisions in federal securities laws. The draft also designs a conditional "safe harbor": once all conditions are met, the relevant crypto assets can be considered no longer bound by investment contracts under securities law definitions. This is only a restatement of the draft and does not represent a judgment on the legal attributes of any token. For ordinary crypto users, there are mainly three paths to influence. First, if project teams can use standardized forms and disclosure frameworks for financing, the uncertainty of compliance costs and timing may decrease, and token issuance activity in the U.S. market may increase. Second, disclosures on finance, team, token allocation, and technical progress are more consistent. Users will have an additional set of verifiable materials when comparing projects, but "disclosed" does not mean "low risk." Third, if the rules are ultimately implemented, trading platforms, custodians, and market makers may be affected$BTC (24h +7%):
Surpassed 75,000 with over $3 billion liquidated across the network on the same day, 90% of which were shorts; driven by three factors: US Treasury repo + fiscal concerns + regulatory tailwinds. Dalio advised "holding a small amount of Bitcoin"; however, the prediction market only gives a 47% chance of holding above 75,000. Whether spot/ETF can take over is the highlight for next week (Nvidia earnings + Jackson Hole).
$ETH (week +19%):
2305→2449 pinpoint short squeeze, continuous ETF inflows, staking trust up 25% in three weeks; 2450 is strong resistance, holding above it targets 2600.
$SOL (7 days +21.5%):
The leading Beta beneficiary of funds missing out after BTC broke the range, with active on-chain Meme/DePIN/AI; 87 is the critical point, with poor contract depth and many spikes.#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧
4500 is a “breakthrough,” not a “hold.” The Treasury’s long bond buyback pushed gold prices up, but institutions have completely different answers to the question “what’s next.” A strong 4.33% bullish candle shifted the debate from “will it fall” to “how high can it go.”
Spot gold surged violently by 4.33%, returning to the $4500 mark after more than two months. As of August 21, gold was trading near $4550, with a cumulative gain of about 12% this month. The direct trigger was the U.S. Treasury raising the long-term bond buyback limit from $2 billion to $4 billion, causing the 30-year yield to plunge nearly 9 basis points from 5.33% to 5.199%, and the dollar to fall below 99. On the funding side, the world’s largest gold ETF confirmed a large single-day increase of 9.41 tons to 1034.65 tons.
But what’s really worth pondering is how institutions are positioning themselves. JPMorgan maintains a $6000 target by the end of 2026; Goldman Sachs sees $5400; UBS expects a surge to $5000 in the first half of 2027. On the other hand, Wells Fargo just lowered its 2026 target from $5300-5500 to $4900-5100; Morgan Stanley also downgraded its outlook. One institution says “4500 is just the starting point,” while another says “expectations are already maxed out.”Woke up early and saw @zakk_okx post mentioning @Glen_Ignix@Ignixbot, a Launchpad on X layer
Upon entering, it looks like a fairly decent launch platform, but on closer inspection, it has some unique features.
1. You can use the Union Curve to post regular memes, or coin stock memes, and set trading taxes
2. 85 OKB graduates, with a graduation increase of 16x
3. The platform currently has a cumulative trading volume of $700,000, launched 90 projects, and graduated 5
4. You can use denomination tokens (tokens used in the pool to buy with one click) (extensions are expected in the future).
The above content is quite ordinary; here are the key points.
AI Agent launched
On the @Ignixbot platform, devs can connect to their own http://okx.ai and choose to issue tokens based on their agent. By binding their agent, they are also bound to the agent's narrative, revenue, business model, potential cultural value, user numbers, and so on
This has already gone beyond the scope of meme coins
It's basically another virtual @virtuals_io, with a bit of an RWA vibe (if you think of agents as real-world assets).
It's also equivalent to issuing tokens to agents, and business data is clearly visible.
The most amazing part is:
Prime mode is coming soonA pawn without a fixed shape fell on the White House table, the chessboard was not sealed, but the board already thundered—Bitcoin surged to 69,000, which was just a misstep in the opening, not a check.
My chessboard experience has only one iron rule: a real game never starts with a check, but with the opening. When you see Trump proposing at the White House summit to "accumulate a large amount of BTC and other crypto assets," what he holds is just an intention, not an actual move. The CLARITY Act is still under review in Congress, the boundaries of the strategic reserve are vague, the CBDC ban is a long-term projection, and "scale, timing, authorization" are all empty slots. This is like lifting the rook in the opening, pressing the center with momentum, but the opponent hasn't responded yet—you haven't posed a real threat.
In chess terms: this is called a "conceptual initiative," not a "substantive initiative." When the government talks about the future, the game has already entered the virtual calculation phase of the midgame—everyone is watching the rook move, but the real players focus on who can promote a pawn in the endgame.
Bitcoin surging to 69,000 and Ethereum simultaneously gaining strength means the market first tasted the hot broth of policy signals. This hot broth is pricing in the possibility of a "strategic reserve," not the fact that the reserve already exists. In other words, someone placed a pawn on the a-file on the board, but it hasn't moved two steps yet, and spectators are already shouting "the enemy is at the gates." If you've played slow chess, you know this excitement is the cheapest chip.
Looking at the US stock market, tokenized US stock assets are rising in tandem, essentially betting that the Trump administration will become the "extra king" in the crypto market. But the king won't personally enter the battle. To win, you need the efficiency of rooks, knights, and cannons, the steady advance of pawns, and the constant creation of threats in the midgame. What does the US have now? A verbal flag signal from a White House summit, a "substantial amount" that hasn't yet become law. The symbolic meaning far outweighs practical progress.
This reminds me of sacrificing a pawn to gain the initiative: you give up a piece, and if the opponent miscalculates, you gain time and space. The US is currently treating the future as a pawn crossing the river, hesitating to push it to the baseline. All traders are waiting for the moment it promotes—on a restrained chessboard, the worst thing is to treat every flag wave as a real move.
I can accept a vague style of play, but I never accept treating "possibility" as a "must-move." BTC's five-month downtrend was temporarily pierced by a long bullish candle; the US Iran oil crisis, CPI data, and Machi's big players' position statements—all these external signals are noise on the edge of the board. The real players only calculate: is the White House move creating a threat or setting a trap? The CLARITY Act takes a step, the CBDC ban guards a step, the strategic reserve hangs there like an undeveloped castle on the queenside—these formations are still far from the endgame exchanges.
So when everyone shouts attack, all I see is a slow game that hasn't yet unfolded into the midgame.
A chess player only asks one question: does the opponent really have the resources to deliver checkmate? If not, then the king on the board is fake. #trumpeyesmorebtcThe Rally Is A Debt Trade
Debt Trade
Bitcoin’s move above 77k, and then above 79k in the day’s coverage, was not just a crypto tape story. It arrived alongside US national debt crossing 40t, 1t added in five months, a projected 2.1t annual deficit, gold at a 14-week high, and Ray Dalio again arguing for less bond exposure and more gold with a bit of Bitcoin.
That is the cleaner read: the bid is being framed as a balance-sheet argument, not a vibes candle. Even Strategy’s mark-to-market flippedToday's Individual Strengths
• ETH: 2545 💲 (approx. 2,500-2,545): The flexible leader this round, weekly gain about 34%, spot ETF net inflow over three days 289 million (BlackRock ETHA accounts for 212.7 million), technical breakout of an 11-month downtrend, standing above the 2,500 psychological level, capital recognition higher than SOL.
◦ Strengths: Large catch-up potential, second strongest ETF capital, positive ecosystem/staking narrative
◦ Risks: KDJ overbought (J>110), RSI high, 2,350–2,356 is the key support/resistance boundary
• BTC: 78,500💲 (approx. 77,800–78,500): Market anchor, weekly gain about 23%, spot ETF net inflow over three days 1.004 billion (accounts for 77.4% of BTC+ETH+SOL ETP total inflow), BlackRock IBIT single product attracted 588.5 million.
◦ Strengths: Heaviest institutional capital, directly benefits from macro liquidity (US Treasury repo doubling + rate cut expectations), strongest support against sell-offs
◦ Risks: RSI ~82 short-term overheated, 78,600–80,000 is a dense previous high area, prone to spikes after weekend short squeeze
• SOL 94💲 (approx. 93–94): High beta follower, weekly gain about 25%, futures volume expanded but ETF net inflow over three days only 4.1 million, far below its historical daily average, weakest capital quality.
◦ Strengths: Largest elasticity when sentiment is good, strong Memecore linkage
◦ Risks: Sharp rises followed by sharper falls, if BTC drops to 75k, 80–90 range will collapse, today is "following the rise, not leading it"
Summary in one sentence
• For relative strength/capital confirmation → choose ETH (strongest if it holds above 2,350 on pullback)
• For stable base/institutional endorsement → choose BTC (above 77,000 is considered strong consolidation)
• SOL is not advantageous today, just high volatility for rebound speculation, keep the lightest position and tightest stop loss.
With thin weekend liquidity + short squeeze profit-taking, none of the three should chase current prices; wait for pullback to the boundary to see which recovers first, the fastest recovery is the true advantage of the day.
Should I provide scenarios for "buying on pullback / shorting on breakdown"? $BTC $ETH $SOL The moment the 30-year US Treasury yield slid down from the high scaffold of 5.3% to the waistline level of 5.2%, I didn’t relax; instead, I immediately crouched down to check the anchor bolts of the “repo load-bearing wall” — sure enough, it was just that the daily grouting valve was temporarily adjusted from 200 million to 400 million, without moving a single rebar in the shear wall.
This round of Treasury operations, frankly, is like doing a sealant repair on the curtain wall glass of the bond market. Raising the repo limit for 10- to 30-year maturities essentially handed market makers a slightly longer crowbar, allowing them to barely pry open a crack at liquidity drought points. But what does this have to do with rate cuts or quantitative easing? It’s like you wouldn’t reduce the total building load just because there’s an extra crane on the construction site, nor would you think the building’s seismic rating rose from level seven to nine just because two temporary steel braces were added.
You only see the yield easing from the eaves at 5.3% down to the platform at 5.18%, but you overlook the most glaring load combination in structural mechanics: fiscal deficit is a permanent load, bond supply is a live load, and inflation expectations are thermal stress. None of these three are removed by this repo arrangement. Repo is a procurement operation, not a structural renovation. It can make short-term fluctuations converge, like a damper absorbing gusts of wind, but it cannot change the building’s natural vibration period — when the next wave of Treasury issuance hits, the suppressed selling pressure will turn into a buzzing sound climbing up the utility shafts.
Now look at the US stock target XASTS, where is it positioned? It’s the observation deck at the top floor of this risk skyscraper. Once the foundation settlement exceeds the allowable value, the first to crack is not the pile foundation but the glass curtain wall at the top floor. High-beta assets seem to be rising with the wind, but their anchor points are all buried in that repeatedly patched bond market mezzanine. Today’s repo boost is like sprinkling a quick-setting agent on the concrete surface — shiny, but the internal hydration heat continues. If you reach out and touch that load-bearing pillar on Wall Street, you can still feel the continuous permanent deformation from the deficit and supply.
In architectural terms, this is not a foundation repair at all; it’s just injecting foam into the settlement joints. As for whether the load will increase this winter — if you stand on the top floor and glance at the bundle of rebar hanging from the tower crane’s jib, the structural engineer will know the answer. #treasuryupsbuybacksThe probability of $BTC experiencing an absolute volatility of ±30% in the next 60 days
The market has recently been in a historically low volatility range. Fundstrat analyzed 8 historical periods with similarly low volatility: the median absolute price change over the following 60 days was 30.2%, with 4 instances of large gains and 4 instances of large losses, evenly split in direction.
• From a historical sample perspective: the probability of a ≥30% price swing is about 50%; however, this is based on historical statistics and does not guarantee a repeat this time.
• From the options implied volatility perspective: the current DVOL (Bitcoin VIX) is at a historical low, and the options pricing implies a 60-day ±30% probability of approximately 35-45%.
• Simply put: it is not certain to happen, but it is a high-risk scenario. There is a 50% chance of significant volatility, with upward movement to around 83000 or downward to around 45000 USD, both scenarios estimated by the institution.After $BTC BTC rose to 79,000, I see the phrase more and more often:
"The bull market is back."
But I think it's still too early to draw that conclusion now.
Don't forget:
BTC's high last year reached around 126,000 USD.
Even if it rises to 79,000 now,
it's still very far from that level.
And this round of increase took only a few days, quickly rising from around 60,000 to nearly 80,000.
This shows the market is very strong.
But "a strong rebound" and "confirmation of a new bull market" are two completely different concepts.
Behind this rise, there are simultaneously:
ETF capital inflow
+
Improved liquidity expectations
+
Regulatory benefits
+
Massive short liquidations
Especially short liquidations.
Since Wednesday, more than 4.3 billion USD in short positions have been liquidated.
Short squeeze → forced buying → price continues to rise → more short squeezes.
This cycle can make prices rise very quickly in a short time.
So I won't shout now:
"BTC will soon be 100,000."
Nor will I try to top out and short just because it rose 20%.
I prefer to wait for the market to answer one question:
Can BTC truly hold in the 75,000–80,000 range?
If it holds:
The nature of this market may really start to change.
If it doesn't hold:
Then it may still just be a very strong bear market rebound.
The most expensive phrase in trading is often:
"This time it's different." 核心解读： • 流动性重新成为市场核心变量，美债收益率仍决定风险资产上限。 本轮BTC快速反弹并不是单纯Crypto行情，而是全球风险资产重新定价的一部分。近期美股波动的核心来源已经从盈利预期转向债券市场，美债长端收益率持续维持高位，10年期美债收益率接近4.7%，30年期收益率超过5.2%，市场正在重新评估美国财政赤字、长期融资成本以及未来利率路径。 对Crypto而言，真正重要的是流动性环境是否改善，如果收益率继续下行，BTC和高估值资产仍有上涨空间；如果长端收益率重新走高，风险资产可能再次承压。 • BTC上涨背后是“政策+流动性+资金回流”三重驱动，但短线已经进入确认阶段。 BTC本轮突破接近8万美元，除了ETF资金重新回流外，市场也在交易美国政策环境改善以及财政端稳定措施带来的流动性预期。近期现货BTC ETF出现明显资金流入，本周ETF净流入规模达到较高水平，推动机构资金重新进入市场。 但需要注意，目前上涨速度明显快于此前结构修复，如果后续没有持续现货买盘接力，市场可能先进入高位震荡。 • 风险偏好修复，但资金仍然没有完全摆脱宏观压力。 美股方面，本周市场虽然反弹，但标普5The biggest change in Pop Mart's half-year report is actually not the "growth slowdown," but that the growth logic is undergoing a transformation.
In the first half of 2026, revenue reached ¥17.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, and net profit was ¥5.04 billion, up about 10%. The numbers are still impressive, but there is a clear gap compared to previous market expectations. More importantly, THE MONSTERS, which includes LABUBU, generated revenue of ¥4.45 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 7.5%, with its revenue share dropping from 34.7% to 26%. (Shangguan News)
On the other hand, Star People’s revenue in the first half was ¥2.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 580.6%, making it the second largest IP. Including CRYBABY, DIMOO, and others, there are currently 11 IPs with revenue exceeding ¥100 million. (FashionNetwork)
So I actually think the real focus of this financial report is not whether LABUBU can continue to explode, but whether Pop Mart can break free from its reliance on a single super IP.
Domestic market revenue grew 47.3% year-on-year in the first half, indicating a still strong foundation; the real pressure is on overseas markets, with Asia-Pacific and Americas revenues down 9.7% and 16.5% respectively. The cooling overseas enthusiasm has directly impacted overall profit margins. (Finance News)
What Pop Mart needs to prove next is whether the "LABUBU myth" can become the "IP matrix myth."
If Star People is just a flash in the pan, the growth shift may mean continued pressure on valuation; but if in the future it can consistently produce 2-3 IPs worth tens or even hundreds of billions, then Pop Mart’s business model will truly evolve from a "hit product company" to an "IP platform."
What I care about more is no longer how much LABUBU can sell, but when the next LABUBU will appear.
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ The rapid rise of this wave of cryptocurrencies actually has an important macro logic behind it, and Nomura has provided a relatively clear explanation.
Nomura believes that the recent sudden increase in long-term Treasury repurchases by the U.S. Treasury is essentially "supporting the bottom" of the long end of U.S. Treasuries. However, the current repurchase scale is still very small and can only provide temporary relief; it cannot solve the supply-demand imbalance problem of U.S. long-term Treasuries. If U.S. Treasuries continue to deteriorate and long-end yields further spiral out of control, policy makers will likely be forced to deploy stronger liquidity tools, possibly even returning to yield curve control (YCC) or genuine quantitative easing (QE).
This is because the yields on the 10-year, especially the 30-year U.S. Treasuries, have rapidly surged to multi-year highs. The higher the long-end rates, the higher the U.S. government's financing costs, and simultaneously, the funding costs for mortgages, corporate loans, and the entire society will rise in tandem. If this continues to spiral out of control, it can easily evolve into systemic pressure on the bond and financial markets, so the Treasury must begin to intervene.
Next steps: If small-scale repurchases cannot suppress rates, ultimately forcing YCC or QE, it means the Federal Reserve will need to step back in to buy Treasuries and inject liquidity into the market through balance sheet expansion. At that time, the trading logic will shift from "high interest rates lasting longer" to "the U.S. will eventually ease monetary policy."
The market is already betting ahead on a bigger turning point: U.S. policy stance is changing, and once it shifts from "tight money" back to "liquidity support," assets like Bitcoin, which are most sensitive to fiat credit and liquidity, will naturally be the first to start pricing this in. $BTC $ETH Is anyone still shorting crypto now?
The market taught shorts a lesson over the past few days.
Bitcoin surged from around 64,000 on Qixi Festival directly up to 79,000.
Weekly gains are about 20%-24%.
Ethereum was even more dramatic, blasting from around $1,900 all the way up to $2,400-$2,500, with weekly gains close to 28%-34%.
During this process, the scale of short liquidations was staggering—over $4 billion in shorts were forcibly closed in two days, with nearly $3 billion liquidated in a single day, setting a record in recent years.
This is not an ordinary rebound; it’s a typical triple resonance of “macro liquidity + policy expectations + short squeeze.”
Shorting now is extremely risky!
1. Macro side suddenly shifted
The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases, directly pushing down long-term yields. The opportunity cost of risk assets decreases, and capital starts flowing back into crypto assets.
2. Policy expectations heat up
The White House held a meeting with crypto executives, and Trump publicly urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act. The market interprets this as accelerating regulatory implementation expectations rather than further delays.
3. Real buying power in the market
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw daily inflows exceeding $600 million at one point, and Ethereum ETFs also had inflows around $200 million. This is not pure leverage speculation; there is real buying support.
The core opportunities ahead remain BTC + ETH.
Bitcoin: It has already surpassed the key 75,000 level.
Watch the psychological resistance at 80,000. As long as it doesn’t break the recent rapid rally support, the trend remains bullish. Suitable for base position allocation, with leverage recommended to be kept low.
Ethereum: This round shows relatively stronger performance, and the ETH/BTC ratio is also recovering. If more staking-related products or ETF funds continue to flow in, its elasticity may continue to exceed BTC. Suitable for aggressive allocation.
The strongest followers this round are XRP, HYPE, etc., which have already had a run ahead. Chasing highs carries greater risk and is better to wait for a pullback.
If the market confirms entering a “risk appetite recovery” phase, mid-cap projects with real implementation logic will rotate. But chasing already significantly risen altcoins now is not cost-effective.
If you really want to buy altcoins, consider the fully circulating altcoin leaders in sectors like doge, pepe, bome, pengu, and the old ancient altcoins.
The market quickly switched from a “despair zone” to a “recovery zone,” and short liquidations themselves became fuel for the rally. Short-term volatility digestion is possible, but without a clear reversal in macro and capital flows, blindly shorting carries much greater risk than going long.
Opportunities are always there, but position and allocation determine returns. Calm planning is far more important than emotional chasing.This morning, BTC was around $114,500, ETH around $4,665. The price itself hasn't changed dramatically, but I think what really deserves attention today isn't a single candlestick, but the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting starting tonight. Why does a central bank meeting affect crypto? Although crypto is an independent market, mainstream assets like BTC and ETH are increasingly affected by global liquidity. The Federal Reserve's attitude toward interest rates directly affects market expectations for dollar liquidity. Simply put: if the market believes interest rates will be cut in the future, money may become cheaper, risk appetite tends to rise, and risk assets like BTC and US stocks are likely to benefit; Conversely, if the Fed believes inflation remains stubborn and high interest rates need to be maintained, market expectations for rate cuts may cool, putting pressure on risk assets. So what the market is really waiting for tonight is what signal Powell will send. But there is one point I find particularly noteworthy: many people have already started trading in advance to trade "rate cut expectations." In other words, even if Powell does send a dovish signal, it doesn't necessarily mean BTC will surge immediately, because some of the positive factors may have already been priced in. On the other hand, if his speech is more hawkish than the market expects, prices may experience more pronounced fluctuations. There was another piece of data today that I found quite interesting: BTC spot ETFs still recorded net inflows on August 21, indicating that long-term funds were absentThe recent sharp rally is not a bull retracement but a triple conspiracy of macro triggers + epic short squeeze + whale dumping:
The US Treasury's extended long-term debt repurchase pushed the 30-year US Treasury yield down from 5.34% to 5.19%, loosening short leverage first; BTC pierced through 65,000 to 73,000 with a single bullish candle → 3.3 billion liquidations across the network in 24h, shorts accounted for 92%, Hyperliquid single order evaporated 48.8 million, the June stubborn short group wiped out; ETH simultaneously squeezed to 2340.
DOGE-like altcoins saw whales sweeping low-position shorts → a wick at 0.0835 → social media hype → old whales transferring coins to dump. The volume is from forced short covering and strong buying, not real spot money. If 70,000/0.0835 cannot hold, it’s a reverse exit ticket for the cut-loss crowd. BTC ETH $DOGE 1. On the inference that ETH breakdown drives BTC ETH, as the second-in-command and altcoin trend indicator, once it first breaks out of a breakout pattern, it often means a full return of market risk appetite (Risk-on), and liquidity begins to shift from defense to expansion.
Potential risk: Beware of a "false breakout after a currency pair rebound" or BTC maintaining a high-level sideways consolidation (alternating bloodsucking/bleeding). As long as macro liquidity cooperates, BTC breakout is indeed just a matter of time and magnitude.
2. On the nature of altcoins "without Wall Street backing" Capital attribute differences: BTC/ETH have spot ETFs and continuous allocation by traditional institutions (compliant funds, low-frequency rebalancing); the vast majority of altcoins are essentially stock game, project-side market making, and on-chain retail sentiment-driven.
Market nature: This altcoin round is more of a valuation reversion + short squeeze "pulse rebound," lacking long-term continuous buying support. Once sentiment fades, the drop speed will be much faster than the mainstream.
3. Rotation operation of "altcoin excess profits switching back to BTC/ETH" This is the best anti-drawdown strategy verified through multiple cycles in crypto trading:
Gradual tiered switching (to avoid missing out on moonshots)
Phase one (recover principal): When altcoins double or reach the first resistance level, sell 30%-50% of principal and profits, directly converting to BTC/ETH or USDT.
Phase two (profit running): Set trailing stop on remaining positions, letting it surge upward$HYPE is undergoing a concentrated liquidity swap in the $73 to $75 range, with large spot volumes entering on one side seeking to cash out, and high-frequency protocol-level absorption on the other.
On-chain monitoring shows institutions transferring over 1.4 million tokens in batches to mainstream trading platforms. Just the spot volume transferred from addresses related to Multicoin and FalconX has exceeded $100 million, causing significant immediate selling pressure in the open market.
Meanwhile, the Hyperliquid protocol executed approximately $5.14 million in buybacks at an average price of $74.71 within 24 hours. The daily buyback volume increased by 60% compared to the previous day, providing cash flow support at the bottom.
The positive collision of these two capital forces determines the stability of the current price range. The protocol’s active accumulation has absorbed some chips in the short term, but whether it can fully offset the institutional large-scale selling intent remains to be confirmed.
If bulls can rely on buybacks and market liquidity to complete sufficient turnover above $73, the market may retest the upper range aided by sentiment recovery. At this point, a halt in net deposits on exchanges would be a confirmation signal of strength.
If large deposits continue to convert into actual selling pressure and break the $73 support, the protocol’s daily buyback quota may be quickly exhausted, triggering a deeper liquidity pullback.
The key to this game lies in whether the buying support is sustainable. Once buyback strength declines while spot deposits do not slow down, the current balance will be broken.
In the next 24 hours, whether large net spot inflows on trading platforms dry up is the core variable to judge if the absorption force can prevail.
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认$SUI surged 14.21% in a single day to reach $0.84, but the core contradiction in the capital game lies in its extremely high 1247x P/S valuation and a low circulating rate of 40.7%.
The 24-hour trading volume reached $998.67 million, entering a short-term hot liquidity pool, but there is significant unlocked supply pressure between the $3.44 billion circulating market cap and the $8.45 billion FDV. On the driving factors, the high beta chase driven by increased market risk appetite ranks first, while the protocol treasury's annualized revenue of only $2.76 million provides secondary fundamental support.
The inflation and position transmission path is very clear: nearly 60% of the total 10 billion tokens are still waiting to be released. Without a buyback and burn mechanism, the new supply will directly dilute the secondary market's absorption capacity. When the 3060x FDV-to-revenue multiple meets subsequent unlocking, the liquidity premium is very likely to adjust downward.
Bullish scenario: If the 24-hour trading volume continues to stay above $1 billion and TVL breaks through the $475.32 million lock-up ceiling, momentum funds will push the price higher. The trigger condition is an unexpectedly rapid accumulation of on-chain fee rates; the invalidation signal is a drop in trading volume below $500 million and large address holdings dispersing and exiting.
Bearish scenario: If trading volume cannot be maintained, the 1247x P/S valuation premium will be repriced, and the price may be squeezed toward 50-70% of the fundamental center. The trigger condition is unlocking selling pressure causing risk appetite contraction; the invalidation signal is a multiple-level jump in the protocol's annualized revenue.
The invalidation condition depends on a drastic change in the underlying development ecosystem. Nearly 9,999 code commits and 100 active contributors on GitHub in the past 90 days indicate current normal development; if development stagnates, valuation support will instantly collapse.
Key variables to watch in the next 7 days: changes in $SUI's trading volume share of total network liquidity, unusual movements in large concentrated holding addresses, and the actual weekly growth rate of protocol fee revenue.
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 According to disclosures, Bitari has filed an S-1 filing with the U.S. SEC, planning to go public on Nasdaq, aiming to raise about $25 million and expected to issue about 3.5 million shares at an issue price of about $7.1 per share, ticker symbol BIAI. A few key points 👇 1️to watch ⃣ Not large in scale, but the power layout is expanding. Bitari currently has about 18MW of Bitcoin mining farms in operation, and two projects of about 22MW are under construction/advancement. If all are eventually implemented, the total planned capacity is expected to reach about 62MW. 2️⃣ Financing remains focused on infrastructure Bitcoin mining is no longer just about "buying mining machines and competing on computing power." What truly determines competitiveness are low-cost electricity, mine resources, infrastructure construction, and operational efficiency. Therefore, mining companies' choice to go public for financing is essentially betting that the BTC mining industry still has room for expansion in the future. Bitari's current scale cannot yet compare to large listed mining companies, but if the new mining farm is successfully put into operation, the company's future growth logic may evolve from simply "mining Bitcoin" to a comprehensive story of power resources + computing infrastructure + BTC exposure. ⚠️ But the risks are equally obvious: currently, only one mine is truly operational, while the rest are still in the construction or planning stages. In other words, whether IPO financing can truly translate into new computing power and actual production capacity will be the most important focus going forward. In $BT