Orbit Post Sitemap

$CAP sideways distribution, nearly half of the holdings reduced by five million in five days, but the price didn't move, can you believe it? Serious divergence, it's really like boiling a frog slowly and calmly unloading the goods. First time seeing this kind of manipulation. This old whale is very patient, not expecting it to suddenly surge or crash. **BTC AND SIGNALS FOR A NEW CYCLE** $BTC has just reclaimed the 200-week moving average — a key technical area for assessing the long-term trend. In the previous cycle, after reclaiming this level, BTC rose about 48% within 90 days. If history repeats itself, the bottom may have formed and the target above $100K in the next 3 months is no longer an unlikely scenario. However, ETF inflows and price structure still need confirmation. #BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #AIEarningsW #Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Waller Clarify the Policy Path? Latest Data The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is approaching, and Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office, just over ten days before the September FOMC meeting. U.S. Treasury yields are fluctuating at high levels, BTC is consolidating at a high level, and highly elastic coins like ETH and $SOL are extremely sensitive to interest rate changes, intensifying market competition. Waller consistently downplays forward guidance and refuses to provide a clear interest rate path. Market Consensus Expecting Waller to clearly set the tone on September rate hikes and long-term policy to judge the subsequent direction of crypto. Underlying Logic Analysis This speech is unlikely to provide a clear policy path, only reiterating the anti-inflation stance and downplaying specific guidance. Hawkish remarks would push up U.S. Treasury yields and suppress crypto; neutral ambiguity would maintain volatility; dovish bias would benefit risk assets. $BTC is the liquidity anchor, while $ETH, $SOL, and altcoin volatility will be further amplified. Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual bull market return, just personal opinion, not investment advice) High event uncertainty, no early bets on long or short. Strictly control leverage and positions, observe key support for $BTC, reduce operations on highly elastic coins, and wait for the speech to settle and the market to clarify before making moves. $TSLA's current trading core lies in the decoupling between its high multiple valuation and the progress of technology implementation. FSD remains at the L2 level, and the high latency of end-to-end AI inference limits the speed of narrative realization. The current market facts show that the historically highest P/E ratio reaching 1000 times and a market value exceeding the combined total of the nine car companies behind it are mainly supported by carbon credit revenue and high premium belief. Market expectations for autonomous driving and Optimus robots have been fully priced in, making fundamental realization ability the key pricing threshold. In the ranking of driving factors, the primary variable is the speed of reducing end-to-end AI inference latency and breakthroughs of the autonomous driving system to higher levels; the secondary variable is the macro liquidity environment's pricing pressure on high valuation sectors; the third variable is the sustainability of carbon credit income. The upside scenario trigger condition is an improvement in macro liquidity or renewed speculative sentiment pushing risk appetite higher. If technological iteration can effectively reduce inference latency and push the autonomous driving system beyond the L2 level, the high premium narrative will be supported, triggering a short squeeze; the signal of this scenario's failure is another delay in key technology delivery. The downside scenario trigger condition is market funds returning from belief-based pricing to fundamental accounting. When FSD remains at the L2 level and carbon credit profits cannot support the current market value, the high valuation represented by a 1000x P/E ratio will be repriced; the signal of this scenario's failure is market liquidity premium forcibly absorbing the technology delivery gap. Although short selling has a relatively high risk-reward ratio, it is very vulnerable to squeeze risk during sentiment-driven rallies. If subsequent trading volume aligns with liquidity recovery, prices will maintain wide fluctuations within the high valuation range. In the next 7 days, focus on observing $TSLA's further data disclosure regarding AI inference technology and the market's capital diversion from high valuation tech stocks. #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元Market Core Status: Short Squeeze Residual Heat Remains, but Upward Momentum Weakens Last week's market was a typical example of a "short squeeze": The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repos (no less than $4 billion per transaction), triggering the bond market. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield plummeted from 5.34% to 5.19%, the dollar weakened, directly igniting the "currency devaluation trade" narrative in cryptocurrencies. Coupled with over $4 billion in short positions forcibly liquidated last week, the price was pushed from around $62,000 all the way up to $79,500. Entering this week, BTC experienced profit-taking after reaching a high of $79,600, once dropping below $75,000, then rebounding above $77,000. The price currently trades around the $77,400-$78,000 range, showing a daily oscillating recovery trend. $BTC $ETH $SOL #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ 把 AAVE 拆开看：协议年入约 $112M，持有人近 30 天入账 $0。7天 +60%，我不当分红打开。 OKX 现价 $141，24h +16%。我没去追 $145 那根。7天已经比 btc 多 40 个点，这种斜率我先当事件行情，不当基本面一夜变好。 费用漏斗才是关键：30d 费用 $29.5M，协议只留下 $4.0M（抽成约 14%），持有人入账 $0。年回购框架 $50M 还在，但执行可以降、可以停，不是票息。市值 $2.2B，约 20x 年化协议收入 $112M——不便宜，定价的是蓝筹溢价。V4 只有 V3 的 1.9%（$331M vs $17.1B）；Horizon $258M 还撑不起第二曲线。Morpho $9.4B 一起涨，说明这是借贷板块 beta。 合约：OI $24M，费率 +0.01%，OI/市值大约 1.1%。杠杆不拥挤。这波主要不是空头爆仓抬上去的。 硬数据（OKX AAVE/USDT）： · 现价 $141 · 24h $121–$145 · 7d +60% vs btc +21% · 30d 费用 $29.5M → 协议收入 $4.0M（抽成 1After ZEC hit a new all-time high on the platform, I feel that the real test for privacy coins is just beginning. Because when a long-dormant asset suddenly strengthens, it's easy to fall into the illusion that: Price increase = the narrative has been validated. But the market is never that simple. What ZEC needs to prove now is not whether it can push up another big bullish candle, but whether after the rise there are new real users, on-chain demand, and long-term capital staying. If there is only a price increase, a surge in trading volume, and then the hype quickly fades back into silence, essentially it's just a rotation of funds. But if this rally can reignite privacy payments, wallet support, and actual usage, then ZEC might truly complete the transition from an "old coin catching up" to a "privacy asset revaluation." The biggest mistake in crypto is to first see the price and then reverse-engineer a grand story. So the higher the new high, the more I want to look at the fundamentals. The real narrative is not that everyone starts discussing after the price rises, but that people continue to use it after the price cools down. #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 Bitcoin has just shown a bullish MACD golden cross on the two-week chart. The last two times this happened, cycle bottoms had already formed. Will history repeat itself? $BTC $ETH $SOL #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department are currently at odds. To put it simply, the Treasury is trying to stabilize the market, while the Fed is just watching. Without the Fed's cooperation, the Treasury's small-scale repos are simply insufficient. The market's reaction was honest: on the day the repo news came out, the 30-year Treasury yield dropped from 5.33% to around 5.19%, but then bounced back the next day. Compare 4 billion to 40 trillion in debt, you do the math on that ratio. Kashkari offered two explanations. The optimistic view is that the bond market is catching up to the stock market, with AI-driven investment boosting productivity and high growth supporting high interest rates. The pessimistic view is that the fiscal deficit is expanding and government debt pressure is increasing. He admits both possibilities exist, and it's currently unclear which is the main cause. Here’s my take. The disagreement between Kashkari and the Treasury boils down to "who controls interest rates." Ultimately, long-term rates are determined by inflation expectations, fiscal supply, and AI-driven capital demand; 4 billion cannot solve these issues. For Bitcoin, if Treasury yields don’t come down, the valuation ceiling for risk assets remains capped. But the real turning point is the CLARITY Act vote on September 15; before that, Bitcoin will likely continue to oscillate at high levels. The direction is clear, control the pace yourself. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP BTC is consolidating around the 77,000 USD level after a strong rally, indicating that the battle between buyers and sellers is still unresolved. Meanwhile, ETH is maintaining a more stable pace, and capital is gradually spreading to altcoins, with market sentiment cooling down from excitement to a more rational state. 📊 The spot ETF continues to record net inflows, confirming the allocation strategy dNo matter how good a project is, if the market is inactive, it’s really useless. Once the market becomes active, the so-called good things will stand out. Rumors about TRUMP have been denied, yet trading volume continues to expand. Often, the market isn’t trading on news but on whether "there’s another person who still believes." Total crypto market cap: approximately $2.64 trillion, down 2.16% in 24 hours; BTC market dominance about 59.1%. U.S. stock markets reopen Monday; first, watch if Friday’s tech stock rebound continues. No new strong macro catalysts over the weekend, so short-term focus remains on the U.S. market open. No new industry-level news for AI and storage. Without new data, storage remains in high-level oscillation trading and is not suitable for chasing after a one-day rebound. SanDisk is really hard to sell; can only hold onto what is considered seriously undervalued SK Hynix. It’s best for everyone not to hold contracts; if you can buy spot, buy spot. Fees are too high, and most people can’t handle it. $MU I am Cige. Kashkari's latest statement: the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.7%, market trading and liquidity remain normal, and the Federal Reserve does not need to directly respond to long-term rate fluctuations and can continue to focus on inflation. Previously, the Treasury Department announced raising the long-term Treasury liquidity support repo limit from 2 billion to at least 4 billion, and the 30-year yield has fallen back from the 19-year high of 5.33%. Kashkari's judgment further confirms that the Treasury's repo is only a liquidity management tool, not a pre-signal for Fed rate cuts or QE. The current debate is whether the rise in long-term yields is due to short-term trading pressure or a structural revaluation driven by fiscal deficits, bond supply, and inflation expectations. If the latter dominates, expanding repos can only reduce volatility and is unlikely to sustainably lower financing costs. Regarding the impact on BTC, Kashkari's statement indicates the Fed will not provide additional liquidity support for the stock or crypto markets. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; you can savor it. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ $BTC $ETH $TRUMP 说真的，看到Dogecoin这波涨幅，很多人第一反应就是“闭眼做空”。但市场从来不是这么简单。更值得关注的是，以太坊已经突破了此前的密集成交区，这意味着一个主流币的涨幅，甚至超过了某些山寨币。如果连主流资产都比你的持仓跑得快，那你的仓位还有什么意义？ 与此同时，新山寨币不断涌现，而DOGE的供应量又是无限增发的。每一轮牛市，只会让这个曾经辉煌的meme币短暂“复活”一下。一旦市场上涨动能减弱，这类被历史逐渐遗忘的山寨币，往往是最先崩塌的那一批。📉 从资金面看，比特币冲高后进入震荡，ETF资金仍在持续流入，说明机构态度依然偏积极。以太坊触及2500美元后也开始整理，短期市场情绪偏热，但波动也在加大。另外，三星股东回报计划落地，最高涉及约800亿美元，对全球风险资产情绪也有一定支撑。 当前阶段，市场分化明显：资金更青睐有实际生态和现金流支撑的主流资产，而纯情绪驱动的meme币则面临更大的回调风险。DOGE的每一次反弹，更多是情绪修复，而非基本面反转。投资者需要警惕“涨时狂欢、跌时踩踏”的典型路径。 风险提示：加密市场波动剧烈，以上内容仅为市场分析，不构成任何投资建议。请根据自身风险承受能#Jackson Hole is approaching, can Waller clarify the policy path? Damn! The Fed is now a complete black box, and Waller is treating the entire market like monkeys.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ This guy threw away the dot plot, cut the guidance, and every meeting he just throws out a line that 2% is still the target, then leaves. The Treasury market is in total chaos. The 30-year Treasury yield has surged directly to 5.2%, a level last seen before the 2007 financial crisis. Traders now are basically gambling blindly with their eyes closed, winning or losing all depends on luck.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ This Friday is the Jackson Hole annual meeting, and Waller will give his first speech as Fed Chair. The whole market is anxiously waiting, just wanting to hear what he plans to do, hoping he can say something clear and straightforward.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Looking at those old hands on X, some think BTC surged from over 60,000 to 77,000 this week, nearly a 20% rise in seven days, ETF funds flooding in, and ETH up nearly 30% in a week. The market suddenly went silent over the weekend, 170,000 people liquidated, longs basically wiped out. Now everyone is waiting for Waller’s stance; if he is tough, US Treasuries will continue to fall, risk assets will shake, and Bitcoin and Ethereum will also plunge. If he continues to be vague, market expectations for liquidity remain, and cryptocurrencies still have room to rise.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ I think the neutral stance has long been priced in by the market; what can really change the market is an unexpected statement. Whether Bitcoin can rise depends mainly on whether there is enough money in the market. Whether Ethereum can keep pushing up mainly depends on whether people dare to take risks. Gold is supported by safe-haven demand. What Waller says this Friday won’t directly decide the next candlestick’s movement, but will determine the direction of capital flow next.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Actually, whatever this guy says in the end is like saying nothing at all. Sigh~😑 #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 This time, with the US-Iran relations tightening again, I actually don't want to chase every diplomatic update; I only watch the oil prices. Because whether geopolitical conflicts can truly impact the market is most directly reflected in crude oil. Last week, both Brent and WTI rose over 5%. If it were just emotional trading, oil prices would quickly retreat; but if transportation is restricted and supply expectations continue to tighten, then the issue shifts from "geopolitical risk" to "inflation problem." For $BTC and the US stock market, the real trouble isn't Iran itself, but the chain reaction behind it: rising oil prices → rising inflation expectations → compressed room for rate cuts → US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen again → risk assets come under pressure. So what I’m most focused on now isn’t "whether it will escalate further," but whether crude oil can hold onto this wave of gains. I think this is also a point that macro traders often overlook: news can be scary, but in the end, the market looks to whether prices confirm it.Review of the 9th issue of 2026: The bull market experienced an epic short squeeze, with the bear market bottom possibly reached two months early? What to do if your short positions are trapped or missed the short squeeze? Is there one last dip? Which assets should you buy on dips? After going through this epic short squeeze, since the 19th, the total short squeeze has exceeded 4.3 billion, and Bitcoin surged close to the 80,000 mark in one go. The main reasons for this explosive rally are short position liquidations combined with unexpected positive news. However, ETF net inflows for the week reached 1.92 billion, second only to the week of last year's bull market peak, and USDT net increase over the last 4 days was 1.6 billion, showing real capital flowing in to buy. Besides capital returning, the bottom structure has become clearer after this rally. The bottom shows a head and shoulders and a large W double bottom pattern, with a clear long-term accumulation zone. 70% of on-chain indicators triggered bottom signals, and a large bullish candle broke through the descending channel, quickly moving out of the accumulation zone. Many dimensions align with a bottom formation. But is it really the bottom? Comparing with the most similar 2018 bear market bottom, the answer is still uncertain. The key going forward is whether the 82,800 level can be broken and held, and also the depth of the retracement after the stage top. The pullback must not break below the 67,000 neckline of the head and shoulders bottom. Judging by these two levels together, there is a high probability to determine if this is the true historic bottom. These two points are very important, remember! I missed this wave and it’s impossible not to feel anxious, but if the bear bottom is confirmed, there will still be opportunities to enter later. Missing the bottom doesn’t mean missing the bull market; everything is just beginning. Be patient and wait for a pullback. After all, this is a contract-dominated market, it won’t be a one-sided trend forever, and there will be many entry opportunities. I have organized the logic and structure over the past few days and formulated the upcoming trading strategies. The differences in the following trading logics depend on whether it’s a reversal and whether the bottom formation is complete. Sharing with everyone, hope it helps. 1. Short-term buying on dips in spot market: buy on 5%-10% pullbacks to avoid missing out. Buy half the position in batches above 74,000, 70,000, and 67,000. If this is the first wave of the bull market, there is still considerable upside, especially after breaking 82,800. Mid-term focus is mainly long above 67,000. If you still hold short positions, a deep pullback near 70,000 is a good chance to close shorts and cut losses. Preferred assets for building positions: large allocations in Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, and BNB. Altcoins have already surged, so avoid chasing. For altcoins, light positions in HYPE, PUMP, BGB, TRUMP, and ENA are possible, as these have performed well and have some fundamental support. In US stocks, I favor MSTR and will buy some positions; crypto-related stocks like COIN and CIRCLE are also decent. 2. 82,800 might be the last chance for the bears. The main long and short forces will battle here, and the bears have strong motivation to remove contract liquidity. This is also a relatively reliable shorting opportunity, but watch for fake breakouts followed by real drops. Only short confidently if that happens. If the breakout holds firmly, stop all losses; a turning point is likely here. 3. Assuming the bottom is confirmed, the price should not fall below 67,000. Falling below means reversal failed and the bottom formation continues. Pause buying and going long to avoid the last dip. Breaking the neckline means this rally is just the C wave of an ABC correction, and there might be one last dip or at least a retest of the previous low at 57,800 to complete a double bottom. 4. Pay close attention to the bill vote on September 15. If it passes and the market continues to rally, the bear bottom is likely confirmed. If it fails, expect a sharp drop and a bull squeeze, indicating a stage top and another bottom test. If that happens, the drop could be significant, but this is highly uncertain and even Trump is unsure, so it’s not a bet. Falling below 67,000 depends on luck; it’s unlikely in the short term unless a black swan event occurs. There are still 2 months left in the one-year bear market cycle. Whether liquidity continues to improve remains to be seen. There should be a major pullback in these two months. If you miss the bottom, you can buy on the right side at the secondary bottom. Don’t rush to chase the rally and get trapped at highs. If you missed the short squeeze or your shorts are trapped, use this time window to close shorts and build positions. This might be the only opportunity right now.#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 NVIDIA's latest earnings report still delivers high growth, with its data center business continuing to lead. However, the market's focus has long shifted away from mere revenue growth rates. The entire AI industry has officially entered a phase of investment return (ROI) validation, no longer driven by storytelling based on concepts. On the upstream computing power side, NVIDIA maintains a high gross margin, and server orders remain robust. But after several consecutive quarters of earnings surpassing expectations, the positive factors have been fully priced in. The market is beginning to question: when will cloud providers, who continue to make substantial computing power purchases, monetize through AI applications to recoup costs? Once corporate AI capital expenditures slow down, upstream chip demand will face direct pressure. The industry chain differentiation is becoming increasingly apparent: the hardware segment is the first to realize profits, while large models and AI application layers experience a stark contrast. Leading companies see rapid revenue growth, but most small and medium projects are still in the money-burning stage, with uneven progress in commercialization. AI is shifting from a nationwide expansion frenzy to a rational phase focused on detailed accounting and profit realization. Personal view: The core contradiction in the AI market has shifted. Previously, the hype was about demand and orders; going forward, the competition will be about real cash flow and profit cycles. NVIDIA's performance is just the basic threshold; if downstream commercialization falls short of expectations, the entire sector's valuation will face correction pressure. Mapping to the crypto market, AI computing power and AI concept tokens will experience differentiation. Purely narrative-driven themes will be abandoned by capital, while those with real-world application scenarios and cash flow support will develop independent momentum. Avoid blindly following and speculating on AI hotspots. BTC closed in the 64K to 80K range, with positions closed in profit and positions left unresolved. It is necessary to check whether this rally continues the trend or if conditions for invalidation have already been established. It is true that BTC rose from 64K to 80K, but this movement was not transmitted equally across all asset classes. ETH participated relatively slowly in the rally, and some altcoins showed only weak rebounds after surges, indicating accumulated fatigue from the rally. OKB and BNB maintained solid momentum, but the storage sector appears to need a healthy adjustment for the next upward phase. NEAR shows uncertainty near the peak around $7.12~7.13. At this point, when the market lacks a clear direction, capital preservation may be a more rational choice than aggressive trend following. From a market structure perspective, this rally was BTC-led, and ETH's failure to catch up indicates that risk appetite has not fully spread. In other words, for the uptrend to remain intact,ZeroHedge pointed out that the phase peak in trading for chip and storage sector stocks coincides exactly with the historical high in total return swap (TRS) financing costs. The article further breaks down the underlying logic of this AI hardware rally: the market previously attributed the strong rise in chip and storage sectors to the explosive demand for AI computing power and sustained improvement in industry fundamentals. However, behind this narrative lies the hidden boost from large-scale leveraged funds. Hedge funds like Situational Awareness have been using over-the-counter derivatives such as TRS, leveraging multiple times to bet on tech stock rallies. After the market trend reverses, high-leverage positions directly amplify asset price volatility. From a market structure perspective, TRS, as an over-the-counter total return swap, allows institutions to amplify their exposure without directly holding the underlying stocks. Earlier, global hedge funds crowded into semiconductor and AI computing sectors, pushing up the overall leverage ratio of the sector and directly raising financing pricing on the investment banking side. As leverage demand approaches its limit, investment banks tighten risk controls and financing costs soar, which are leading indicators of overheated trading and crowded positions. When costs hit historical extremes, it means the marginal power of the bulls is exhausted and a market turning point follows. Public trading data confirms the backlash effect of leveraged funds: Situational Awareness’s previously heavily weighted high-leverage tech stock portfolio suffered significant drawdowns, triggering margin calls and forcing large-scale reductions in tech stock holdings. This event clearly reflects that the recent rally in popular chip and AI stocks is not fully supported by corporate profits or industry prosperity fundamentals. The degree of leverage in funding is the core variable driving short-term market fluctuations. A deeper risk lies in the high concentration of semiconductor leveraged trading this round. Leading storage chips and AI computing targets are collectively bet on by leveraged ETFs and hedge funds, creating a negative gamma hedging feedback loop between derivative positions and spot trading: in the rising phase, leveraged funds add positions pushing prices higher; in the falling phase, they face collective liquidation and forced selling pressure, easily causing one-sided extreme market moves. Recently, leading investment banks have successively raised TRS financing spreads for chip stocks and reduced swap trading limits, essentially a passive correction of previous excessive leverage. As existing high-leverage positions gradually unwind, sector short-term volatility will remain high, and the market will gradually return from capital-driven speculative rallies to pricing logic based on industry fundamentals. $CL crude oil retraces to $85, but the whales are frantically adding positions—I've seen this script before Geopolitical risks haven't materialized yet, but smart money has already quietly moved below $85. CL current price is $85.32. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the price just touched the lower Bollinger Band at $85.07 and then rebounded. The MACD green bars are converging, DIF and DEA are still hovering below the zero line, and RSI across three periods is in the extremely oversold range of 32-37—a signal that short-term selling pressure is nearly exhausted. The news is the main event. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just announced the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran. Iran directly warned: if the economic war continues, it will completely cut off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's crude oil exports have plummeted from 2 million barrels per day to 287,000 barrels—the supply gap is clear, so oil prices can't fall further. My personal view: this retracement is not a trend reversal but an emotional release "before sanctions take effect." Referencing October 2024, when Iran threatened to block the strait, oil prices first dropped 5% then surged 18% over two weeks. Geopolitical premium hasn't been priced in yet; the current $85 is clearly undervalued. Trading strategy (core): First entry zone: 84.50-85.00, build long positions. Second add-on zone: add positions if it retraces to 83.80-84.20. For specific entry signals and position management, follow Tang Seng; I will explain in detail. #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Personal View [NVIDIA Price Increase, SanDisk Wins Effortlessly] NVIDIA AI servers have raised prices by 15% across the board; on the surface, this is cost pass-through, but in reality, it signals the bargaining power of the storage supply chain. AI servers consume 3 to 8 times more NAND flash than traditional servers. SanDisk's data center business revenue surged 1298% year-over-year, with its share of total shipments soaring from 12% to 38%. SanDisk's enterprise SSD demand is booming, with revenue up 372% year-over-year, having secured $93.9 billion in long-term orders, solidifying its performance base for the next five years. During the upward cycle of AI computing costs, SanDisk is shifting from a "supporting role" to a "leading role," continuously benefiting from the global computing power arms race $SNDK #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Occasionally crossing back to make Dan 234% pocketed Look at the direction, it's worthless. Look at the position, then it's valuable. The client has been waiting. I have been waiting. Only when the position is right do I let him in. Enter around 767. Exit around 777. Similar to the public idea. Many people think I am accurate. Actually not. I am just more willing than most to wait for that position that belongs to me. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Discussing the industrial logic behind Nvidia and downstream manufacturers raising prices: When Nvidia starts raising prices and terminal manufacturers like Apple follow suit, it indicates that the huge hardware costs of AI have officially reached the stage where "end consumers must bear the cost." Even Nvidia, at the top of the industry chain, can no longer absorb the costs alone. This cost squeeze is actually quite negative for the storage sector. If downstream terminal manufacturers are under pressure, their bargaining power and willingness to purchase upstream storage chips will be suppressed. This brings to mind the previous market event where Apple and Micron CEOs clashed, leading to a "long Apple, short Micron" hedging strategy. In this cost transmission chain, there are still hidden cross-sector hedging trading opportunities worth closely monitoring. #AI成本 #英伟达 #美光 #美股交易 #交易日志$NVDA 🔥 Altcoin capital rotation begins to accelerate? XRP becomes the market focus A notable new development has recently appeared in the crypto market: $XRP has surged nearly 50% this week, significantly outperforming $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL, becoming one of the strongest performing mainstream assets recently. Factors driving XRP's rise include liquidity expectations from the U.S. Treasury's buyback and a large number of short positions being liquidated. Meanwhile, from August 19 to 22, the total market cap of altcoins increased by about $215 billion, with the Total2 market cap breaking through $1 trillion again. This may indicate an important shift: Capital is gradually flowing from BTC and ETH to some high-momentum altcoins. However, this does not yet confirm a full Altseason. What truly deserves attention is whether this capital rotation can sustain, and whether more mainstream altcoins will see simultaneous growth in spot buying and trading volume. If this trend continues to expand, the market structure may be gradually shifting from BTC dominance → large-cap assets → selected altcoins. 现货拿得住，合约却让我把底仓全吐光了 你有没有过那种，明明方向看对了，最后却亏在过程里的感觉？ 先说个真实经历。我原本是老老实实玩现货的人，比特币六万的时候买进去，发誓要拿到新高，结果六万五就跑了。后来看PUMP不错，0.0014进场，0.0022离场，它还在涨。BICO更离谱，买在0.016，割在0.012，结果转头就冲上0.09。每一笔单独看都还行，但全部加起来，只证明了一件事：我的现货眼光不差，差的是拿住的能力。 真正把我账户掏空的是AAVE那笔合约。96开多，仓位开太大，后面保证金不够，只能把手里所有现货全卖了去补。最后仓位是保住了，利润也没了。最气的是，我95就急着跑，现在它已经135了。那种感觉不是亏钱的痛，是明明看得懂市场却亲手把筹码交出去的憋屈。 这事让我想明白一个很关键的点：很多人亏钱不是判断错了，而是工具用错了。现货允许你犯错，只要标的有价值，时间会帮你修复。但合约是即时清算的，它不会给你等待的资格。我身边好几个朋友都是这样，方向看得挺准，最后却死在杠杆和保证金上。 现在市场其实在交易两件事。一个是比特币在高位反复震荡，ETF资金还在持续流入，说明传统资金没有撤，只"On-Chain Red Light? Don't Be Fooled by the Whales' 'Fake Moves'" As the market just started to pick up, on-chain data exploded—$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, HYPE, LINK, all major coins are flooding into exchanges. Have the whales fled? Is the bull market over? Don't rush to write the obituary for the candlestick chart. On-chain data only captures "actions," not "intentions." Deposits ≠ selling; a large volume of transfers are market makers hedging, OTC settlements, or wallet consolidations, none of which go through public order books. Taking profits ≠ liquidating positions—one HYPE whale earned over $100 million from staking, transferred out $53 million via OTC channels, and still holds $55 million exposure. This is "locking in profits while keeping positions," a combined strategy, not an exit. Even more surprising, some of the "deposits" you see are passive buybacks triggered by short liquidations. Three institutions collectively shorted over $600 million, and this rebound triggered a chain of liquidations—they're more afraid of missing out than you are. The truth is: large entities have net bought 43,000 BTC over 60 days, and BlackRock's IBIT weekly accumulation is four times the amount newly mined. Under the on-chain red light, institutions are quietly repositioning. Retail investors see the data and shout "run!" while institutions see the data and say "buy more." But be prepared for a sobering reality: whale buying under low volatility does not equal a full bull market; a true recovery requires macroeconomic support. What you see is "deposits to exchanges," but what you don't see is off-exchange accumulation, OTC profit locking, and derivatives hedging happening simultaneously. On-chain data is a clue, not the answer. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $BTC has returned to $77,000, with Strategy turning profitable, but $STRC is stuck at the last $5. At the current BTC price, Strategy's position has an unrealized gain of about $1.4 billion. However, its perpetual preferred stock STRC remains near $95, $5 short of the $100 par value. Though it seems just a step away, behind this lies the trust pricing of Strategy, and whether the market is still willing to vote on Strategy's capital structure. $STRC currently has a dividend yield of 12%, having dropped to $75 in June. To maintain the par value, Strategy sold 1,690 BTC, issued MSTR to raise funds, and cumulatively repurchased over 1.44 million shares of STRC, with about $790 million remaining in repurchase capacity. Currently, Strategy holds 840,000 BTC plus $4.8 billion in cash, with sufficient coverage. But the market currently sees that if $100 must be maintained through continuous coin sales, stock issuance, and repurchases, that is not a true credit valuation. Publicly supporting the price may also attract arbitrage funds to short MSTR and buy STRC. Michael Saylor stated that around September 8 can be seen as an observation window for STRC to return to par value. It is believed that ultimately reaching $100 is not difficult, but it will only be credible if it can hold steady after reducing repurchase intensity. Bitcoin will determine how much flexibility Strategy's asset side has, while STRC determines whether the capital market is still willing to believe in its "digital credit" narrative.$CORE “Ignore the ups and downs, keep building, add positions all in, and look back in 2030.” This phrase is wildly circulating in the community: Don’t just focus on the price, look at the ecosystem! BTCFi, power grid, SatPay, Bitcoin's “godson,” painting a bright future. In the grand slogans: let go of short-term profits and losses, hold firmly for the long term, replicating the early Bitcoin wealth miracle. Under the bleak market: the DApp ecosystem has been dormant for years, liquidity keeps flowing out, core on-chain data remains at the bottom for a long time, with no signs of recovery. If any narrative were to materialize, the market would never be stuck at the current price. Many forcibly compare it to Bitcoin in 2014, urging holders to hold on and wait for a market breakout. Times have changed completely; this is not that time, and past miracles cannot be replicated. The long-term blueprint is repeatedly drawn, but verifiable implementation data is always missing. People verbally advise to overlook profits and losses, but the cold market records every loss. When all confidence in the position rests only on a distant, uncertain fantasy, do we really want to bet our chips on expectations with no visible realization date? August ETF flows are making history, but the headline numbers tell only half the story 🔍 The QQQ fund has pulled in +$10.9B since the start of August, putting it on track for the largest monthly net inflow in its history. That’s more than double July’s +$4.9B and already above the previous record of +$9.2B set back in March 2022, during the peak of the Covid-era liquidity wave. Meanwhile, the opposite is playing out in other tech-focused funds: 🔴 SMH (semiconductors): -$2.8B, likely heading fo$SNDK appears to be a long-term positive on the surface, but in reality, it's a trap. The same trick won't work again; they bring fans to lay an ambush in advance. This time, Nvidia's price increase essentially comes from the upstream rise in raw material storage costs. There was an identical event before—Apple raised prices in response to storage cost hikes, resulting in a direct plunge in the storage sector. It's the same this time; the news didn't immediately ferment, but as soon as the Korean stock market opened today, the effect appeared— the three giants collectively plummeted. However, this time the impact isn't as strong as before, since the market sentiment diminishes with repeated events. But Wei Ge judges that this downturn isn't over yet; when the US stock market opens tonight, it will definitely drop again #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Promising 110 trillion but only giving 30 trillion! $SAMSUNG shareholder returns "shortchanged," stock price plummets 8%, is it time to buy the dip now? Brothers, Samsung really messed this up. The market expected a shareholder return plan starting at 100 trillion KRW, but what happened? This year, only 30 trillion in cash dividends were distributed, and the remaining 60-80 trillion was postponed to next year. Morgan Stanley directly called it "disappointing," and the stock price immediately dropped 8%, falling from 205 to 188. But look at the K-line—RSI 11.12. Brothers, Samsung's RSI has rarely dropped to 11 in history. Every time it happens, it's the extreme point of a phase of panic selling. Objective view: The plan falling short of expectations is true, but the overreaction in the drop is also true. The 100 trillion will be distributed sooner or later, just a few months late, and Samsung's fundamentals have not changed. During the US stock market holiday, the $MSTR token surged alone to 120.57, a 1.11% premium over the underlying stock, with the daily RSI reaching an overbought level of 78.4. When the Nasdaq token weakens and lacks confirmation from underlying spot transactions, this unilateral rush amplifies the risk of cross-market pricing dislocation. If the holiday sentiment premium naturally recedes, the token will face a technical correction close to the upper Bollinger Band. If the underlying stock gaps up to catch up after the US market opens, the overbought structure may also be directly absorbed by spot momentum. Going forward, the key focus is to observe whether the underlying stock's transaction price at the US market open can sustain the current token premium. #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ The boss has something to say Alibaba is placing new shares worth HKD 80 billion, 710 million shares, accounting for 3.6% of the expanded share capital. All proceeds will be invested in AI infrastructure. In the latest quarter, AI cloud and computing power service revenue grew by 45%, capital expenditure increased by 75% simultaneously, and net profit dropped by 75% year-on-year. Revenue increased, but cash burn accelerated. Alibaba chose equity financing instead of issuing bonds, so no interest burden, but existing shareholders’ equity was diluted by 3.6%. The Hong Kong stock market fell nearly 10 points that day, and the Hang Seng Tech index was dragged down by 3.58%. The market’s pricing is clear: shareholders do not welcome dilution. This is the same logic as Intel issuing stock, AMD issuing bonds, and Nvidia launching financing platforms. AI infrastructure is very capital-intensive, requiring continuous capital injections from the market. Alibaba’s cash reserves have always been substantial, but now it also needs to rely on share placement to fill the AI funding gap, indicating that capital consumption in this sector has exceeded the coverage of operating cash flow. For a company of Alibaba’s scale, equity financing is a carefully calculated decision. Choosing this path means management’s judgment is that the returns from AI investment can cover the cost of equity dilution, or the time window is too tight to wait for operating cash flow to accumulate slowly. Whether this can be realized depends on whether AI revenue growth can cover the expansion speed of capital expenditure. On the market, Bitcoin fell from 77,000 to fluctuate around 75,000. All long positions have been closed waiting for a pullback. Nvidia’s earnings report and PCE are the two key variables this week; do not heavily bet on direction before then. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP Hold steady between 73,000 and 74,000 before buying again. The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-loss set. Good luck.Straight to the conclusion: **The crypto market offers far greater opportunities than the A-share and US stock markets**. Current status of the three markets: **Crypto 🟢 Clear opportunities** - BTC surged 22.7% last week, with a single-week increase of $14,264 setting a historical record - ETF funds saw a continuous net inflow of $1.92 billion, real money entering the market - Weakening USD + US Treasury repo = improved liquidity, the core driving force - Standard Chartered believes $100K by year-end is possible; we previously estimated $126K-$150K - Risk: Jackson Hole from 8/27-29 may trigger short-term volatility, but the overall trend is solid **A-shares 🔴 Experiencing a second bottom test** - Today, the ChiNext index dropped 3.2%, tech stocks collectively crashed: Zhongji Xuchuang -7.8%, Tianfu Communications -8.9% - Public funds have had net redemptions for 14 consecutive quarters, the redemption pressure is the worst since 2016 - Institutional consensus: high probability of a W-shaped second bottom test, currently just the end of the first rebound - Earnings shocks expected before the 8/31 mid-year report deadline - Your previous decision to stop investing in A-shares was correct **US stocks 🟡 Too much uncertainty** - The three major indices all fell last week; Nvidia’s earnings report is due on 8/27 - 30-year US Treasury yields hit a new high since 2007, suppressing valuations - If Jackson Hole leans hawkish, tech stocks will continue to be under pressure So the direction is clear — **keep betting on crypto, avoid A-shares**. Your current situation: - Dual currency win has been redeemed, 0.042 BTC back in hand, continue holding - Still have about ¥40,000 USDT waiting for a pullback - BTC is now $77,400; my advice remains: wait for Jackson Hole to conclude before moving large funds - Small positions can be used for practice (your ETH entertainment position is already running) The only risk to watch: Jackson Hole speech debut by Walsh on 8/28. If he is hawkish, BTC might retest $72K-$75K, which would be a good opportunity to deploy your 40,000 USDT. Don’t rush, let him finish speaking first.BTC holding above $77,000 while ETH outperforms toward $2,500 points to improving risk appetite, but not yet a broad liquidity breakout. My read is that ETF flows are supporting the floor, while the stronger ETH move reflects selective rotation rather than indiscriminate chasing. The next test is macro, not crypto-native. Jackson Hole, the Treasury buyback test and renewed Iran oil risk can all reshape rate and inflation expectations quickly. I would treat this rebound as constructive but fragile until those pressures clear. Not advice, just analysis.牛市会不会真的来，现在没人能提前确认。但按目前盘面和资金变化看，已经出现了“牛市重新启动”的一些条件，还没到可以闭眼喊牛的程度。 我一般不会只看$BTC 涨了多少，而是看几个东西能不能同时出现： 1. BTC先把大结构打回来。 真正健康的牛市不是几根大阳线，而是突破后回踩还能守住，周线不断抬高低点。你最近看到BTC从6万多快速拉回7万多，只能说明趋势明显修复，后面能不能把高位真正站稳才更关键。 2. 机构资金必须持续进场。 截至8月21日当周，美国BTC现货ETF净流入约 19亿美元，ETH现货ETF约 6.97亿美元，两者合计约 26亿美元，是2026年以来最强的一周之一。这个信号比单纯看K线靠谱得多。 3. 不能只有大饼涨。 真牛市后面通常会看到$ETH 、$SOL 以及其他主流逐渐接力，赚钱效应扩散，而不是BTC一停所有币马上熄火。最近ETH资金也明显回流，这一点算加分。 4. 场外新增资金要持续增加。 目前稳定币总市值大约在 3000亿美元附近，但近30天并没有明显扩张，说明新资金回流有改善，却还没形成那种全面加速灌水的状态。 5. 宏观环境别突然翻脸。 最近美国财政部扩大长期$FIL has already peaked, brothers Now just shorting directly keeps getting crushed It can't rise anymore One spike and it’s ruined The dog whales have already fled, running so slowly they’re useless Let me sort out the core logic of the news. The overall market risk aversion is heating up, funds are starting to wait and see the Jackson Hole meeting this week, and small- and mid-cap coins are the first to face capital withdrawal. Meanwhile, the storage sector’s positive news has been realized, with no new implementation news in the short term. Many miners are selling chips during the slight rebound, causing continuous selling pressure. Additionally, the market’s expectations for AI storage commercialization progress have been downgraded, which also dampens bullish confidence #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 每次主板（BTC/ETH/SOL）在高位陷入流动性剧烈震荡时，资金往 DeFi 跑并不是盲目的炒作，而是衍生品市场和链上做市商在进行一次“利差套利与杠杆锚定”。 1. 为什么先动的往往是 $AAVE 和 $UNI ？ 当 ETH 或 BTC 冲高回落时，市场的高倍杠杆多头被清洗干净，衍生品资金费率（Funding Rate）快速回归中性甚至接近 0。 $AAVE 的逻辑（借贷与杠杆基建）：高倍杠杆清算后，场内做市商和巨鲸需要重新建立低杠杆的“套利头寸”或“现货抵押”。Aave 协议内部的借贷需求和清算罚金（Liquidations）会短时间内爆发，直接推升 protocol fee（协议收入）。这就是为什么 $AAVE 经常在震荡市里展现出极强抗跌属性甚至独立拉升——因为它的底层流水在爆清算的时候反而激增。 $UNI 的逻辑（流动性与交易费）：极值插针意味着 DEX（去中心化交易所）上的交易量爆表，Uniswap 的流动性提供者（LP）手续费短时间内飙升。当主板价格停止大波幅插针、开始横盘时，资金会立刻预判 DEX 的手续费收入而进场抢筹。 2. 第二阶段：资金会向“收益代币化”#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Wash is unlikely to provide a clear path. Since taking office, he has cut forward guidance, shortened policy statements, and even stopped releasing the dot plot — this "silence philosophy" is not a mistake but deliberate. The market's hope for a sudden shift from him at Jackson Hole is slim. There are three levels of his Friday speech worth unpacking. First, the background no longer allows him to remain silent. The 30-year yield once surged to 5.34%, the 30-year at 5.27%, with 40 trillion in debt pressure, inflation exceeding 2% for five consecutive years, and the fiscal deficit surpassing 1.8 trillion in the first 10 months. His silence after the July FOMC was directly interpreted by the market as "insufficient determination to fight inflation." Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker put it bluntly: "Saying 'we are addressing it' is no longer enough; the market will be very disappointed." Second, the market expects specific guidance, but he may only provide a framework. The speech theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," which is inherently a structural topic, giving him room to avoid short-term rate discussions. Bloomberg Economics' expectation is straightforward — he will most likely "double down on advancing the reform agenda to reduce forward guidance" rather than provide specific policy signals. Third, the "asymmetric risk" of this speech is obvious. TD Securities strategist Molly Brooks warned: if there is too little information, the market will be disappointed; even if some reaction functions are given, the upside is limited. In the last bull market, $BTC rose 7 times, and $MSTR rose 40 times. I still believe MSTR will generate excess returns this round, multiplying 2-3 times on top of BTC's gains. If we consider four years as a complete cycle, the relationship between MSTR and BTC evolves like this: Phase one, the early bull market brewing period, BTC climbs slowly, MSTR hesitates. At this time, buying BTC spot is safer because Saylor's debt interest is a burden during the bear market. Phase two, the main bull market surge, MSTR outperforms BTC because Saylor issues debt to buy coins, coin prices rise, stock prices rise, and more debt is issued to buy coins. This is a spiral upward. At this time, MSTR's gains are usually 1.5 to 2 times that of BTC. Phase three, the late bull market frenzy, divergence occurs: BTC is still rising, but MSTR stagnates or falls because the premium rate is too high and is suppressed by arbitrageurs. As a result, MSTR crashes first, dragging BTC down with it.The U.S. imposes the "strictest Iran sanctions in history," yet oil prices fall sharply against the trend: funds exit early, market awaits final outcome On August 24 local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to announce a new round of sanctions against Iran, officially defined as the "most severe financial strike in history." The Trump administration previously issued harsh warnings, threatening to impose secondary sanctions on countries continuing to purchase Iranian oil. Despite escalating geopolitical risks, international oil prices have moved in the opposite direction: Brent crude briefly dropped to $92.6 per barrel, down nearly 1.9%, while WTI crude fell back to $85.4 per barrel, ending last week's strong rally of over 5%. Logically, with U.S.-Iran negotiations deadlocked, rising supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. intensifying extreme sanctions, one would expect a surge in oil's safe-haven buying. So why are funds collectively fleeing? The core reason is that the market had already priced in geopolitical premiums in advance. This round of decline essentially reflects profit-taking by investors closing positions early while awaiting the actual impact of the sanctions. Last week's oil price surge had already fully priced in expectations of intensified U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions in Strait of Hormuz shipments. Before the sanctions officially take effect, bullish funds chose to lock in profits to avoid the risk of positive surprises being fully realized after the sanctions land. Meanwhile, the biggest market uncertainty centers on the actual enforcement scope of U.S. sanctions: will Iranian oil exports be completely blocked, or will pressure remain limited to the financial sector? Whether Iran can continue supplying crude to Asian markets through gray channels or ship-to-ship transfers remains a key concern preventing funds from aggressively chasing prices. It is important to clarify that falling oil prices do not mean Middle East geopolitical risks have disappeared. Shipping data shows that crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz has not fully returned to normal. Most tankers choose to turn off AIS signals and take the Oman route covertly. The overall crude and refined product supply pattern in the Middle East remains tight, with Asian refinery feedstock shortages even more acute than in the crude spot market. As a global energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz carries nearly one-fifth of the world's crude shipments daily. As long as safety risks in the passage are not fully resolved, supply-side risks persist. The future direction of oil prices will depend entirely on the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions. The market is awaiting validation of two possible outcomes: First, if the new sanctions truly cut off Iran's oil exports to China and Asia, a global crude supply gap will quickly emerge. Brent crude is likely to return to an upward trend, with risk premiums above $95 being repriced. Second, if the sanctions prove to be "all bark and no bite," and Iranian oil exports maintain current levels, then the previously built-up geopolitical premium will continue to be squeezed out. The $92-$95 range bubble will gradually clear, and oil prices will enter a phase of volatile decline. In the short term, this round of price correction is an emotional adjustment amid geopolitical games, not a trend reversal. Before the U.S. officially announces sanction details and Iran's export trajectory becomes clear, the crude market will remain in a high-level consolidation. Funds will stay cautious and wait for the dust to settle before choosing a direction. For the energy market, the repeated tug-of-war in the Middle East means oil prices will be influenced by geopolitical risks for a long time, with volatility likely to remain elevated. $CL BTC rose more than 20% this week, while US stocks weakened: the S&P fell 1.43% for the week, the Nasdaq dropped 2.05%, and the semiconductor index fell about 5%; the US dollar index has returned to around 98.8. (Investor’s Business Daily⁠) This indicates that it is not a full Risk-on environment currently, but funds are more inclined toward assets like BTC and gold that are sensitive to the dollar and fiscal risks. Next week, I’m only watching two variables: Nvidia’s earnings report + Jackson Hole. Micron is investing $10 billion betting on AI memory, and SK Hynix is repurchasing $28.6 billion; the industry cash flow is not bad. (Reuters⁠) BTC is about the trend, US stocks depend on interest rates; without long-term bonds coming down, tech stocks will find it hard to truly unlock valuation space. #US Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Buybacks, 30-Year US Bonds Pull Back from Highs The US wants to save US bonds, so why have gold and $BTC ended up performing the best? In recent days, an interesting combination has appeared in the market: The US Treasury has expanded long-term US bond buybacks, hoping to improve bond market liquidity; the 30-year US bond yield briefly fell from **5.34%** but quickly returned above 5.2%. In other words, US bonds have not truly been suppressed. Meanwhile, the US dollar has clearly weakened, BTC has risen over 20% in a week, and gold has also strengthened, with funds flowing simultaneously into two completely different "non-dollar assets." I think this might be more worth studying than BTC rising to $80,000 itself. Treasury buybacks are not QE; they address bond market liquidity, not the US's over $40 trillion debt and long-term fiscal deficit. The problem is, if in the future the US neither wants long-term financing costs to stay above 5% nor can truly reduce the fiscal deficit, then sooner or later the market will ask: Who ultimately bears this pressure? If the answer is not higher US bond yields, then it might be a weaker dollar. This is also why gold and BTC have both become worthy of attention recently. One is a traditional hard asset, the other a non-sovereign digital asset; their logics are completely different, yet they may be trading the same thing: the market beginning to reprice the dollar and US fiscal credit.$SNDK In-Depth Analysis: Triple Negative Factors Converge, Why Did Semiconductors Face a "Black Monday"?💀 At today's Asian market open, the semiconductor memory sector led by SanDisk and Hynix plunged sharply, driven by the concentrated outbreak of three key logics: 1. High U.S. Treasury yields suppress high valuations Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have been continuously rising. Although Federal Reserve officials downplay concerns, the signal released is that high interest rates will persist longer. Elevated risk-free rates aggressively attract capital, directly suppressing high-growth tech stocks that rely on future cash flow valuations. 2. Industry confidence collapses due to disappointing guidance from giants Last Friday, Samsung announced a return plan far below market expectations. The conservative plan from the leader caused capital to reassess the entire memory sector's profit elasticity, triggering panic selling at today's open. 3. Escalation of geopolitical risk aversion The Trump administration announced the "strictest economic sanctions in history," sharply increasing geopolitical tensions. Capital immediately shifted to defense mode, gold surged, funds fled risky assets, and semiconductors became the primary target for sell-offs. Under the triple pressure of high U.S. Treasury yields, weak industry fundamentals, and heightened geopolitical risk aversion, short-term bullish sentiment has been severely hit. Although there is a technical rebound demand after the sharp drop, without a substantial reversal in macro and fundamentals, the rebound is relatively weak. The sector will most likely maintain wide-range volatility or continue to test lower levels. Aggressive traders can wait for SanDisk to rebound near 1545 before attempting a light short position if the breakout lacks strength. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 BTC reaching $78.8K is impressive, but the bigger signal may be the $1.9B flowing into spot ETFs. The rally may have started with short squeezes, but institutional demand now appears to be playing a growing role. The key test will be how the market handles profit-taking from early buyers. If ETFs continue absorbing that supply, BTC could transition from a sharp rebound into a more sustainable uptrend. But if inflows weaken, leverage could quickly amplify volatility. #BTCETFInflowsSurge ETH’s stronger 24-hour gain while BTC holds near $77.5K looks more like selective rotation than a broad risk-on breakout. A test of $2,500 matters, but confirmation requires ETH to keep outperforming without BTC losing its footing. Macro conditions still argue for restraint. Treasury buyback signals may support liquidity at the margin, while renewed Iran oil risk could revive inflation pressure #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap #BTCETFInflowsSurge #The US is about to impose the strictest sanctions! Crude oil, however, initially dropped nearly 2%. Brent crude just fell to around 92.6, and WTI also returned to about 85.4, with a decline close to 2%. Last week, oil prices rose by more than 5% because US-Iran negotiations stalled again, raising risks in the Strait of Hormuz. But today, the situation reversed directly. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is preparing to announce a new round of sanctions on Iran, described as the most severe financial blow in history. Trump had previously threatened to sanction countries continuing to buy Iranian oil. Logically, with increased supply risks, oil prices should rise. But this time, funds pulled out first. The reason is simple: last week, everyone had already priced in the sanctions and Strait of Hormuz risks. Now many are waiting to see exactly who the US will sanction, how harshly it will be enforced, and whether Iranian oil can still be secretly sold to Asia. So today's oil price drop does not mean Middle East risks have disappeared. Shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have not fully recovered, and crude and refined oil supplies from the Middle East remain tight, with Asia even more strained. Looking ahead, there are two possibilities: if sanctions truly block Iran's exports, oil prices may rise again; if it's just tough talk and exports can still continue, then the current $92-95 premium might be squeezed out. Today's drop mainly reflects funds waiting for the final answer. I will provide the first reaction after the sanction details are announced in the group. #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Samsung really messed this up. On August 21, the board approved a shareholder return plan ranging from 90 trillion to 110 trillion KRW, setting a record in the history of Korean listed companies. But when the Korean stock market opened today, the stock price immediately dropped 8 points, falling from 205 to 188. What exactly is the market disappointed about? First, all talk and no action. The 110 trillion upper limit sounds intimidating, but the actual cash dividend implemented this year is only 30 trillion in Q3. The remaining 60 to 80 trillion will be decided at the board meeting in January next year. They painted a huge pie, but only gave a small slice. Second, dividends are not as good as buybacks. The market wants stock buybacks and cancellations to directly boost the stock price. Samsung gave cash dividends, which have much less support effect on the stock price. Moreover, Samsung didn’t even mention any plan to cancel treasury shares. Third, the contrast with nearby Hynix is glaring. On August 19, they directly approved a 40 trillion buyback and full cancellation, accounting for 3.3% of total shares. Samsung made a big noise about the pie, but the actual implementation is only 30 trillion in dividends. The market voted with its feet: Hynix rose 0.4%, Samsung plummeted 8%. JPMorgan bluntly said the plan was "no surprise," and Morgan Stanley said it was "slightly below expectations." Samsung’s RSI has dropped to around 11, an extremely oversold level rarely seen in history. Every time such a panic bottom appears, there is a rebound afterward. The plan falling short of expectations is true, but the 100 trillion will be distributed sooner or later, just a few months late. Samsung’s Q2 revenue was 171.5 trillion KRW, operating profit 89.5 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 1813%$SNDK A few days ago, I was still watching Xiaomi and Pop Mart, but this week the earnings season has directly shifted to the AI arena. Whether cars can catch phones, or star people can catch LABUBU, I haven't figured out yet, but computing power, chips, and enterprise software are already lining up to report results. In the early morning of August 27 Beijing time, NVIDIA led Synopsys and a group of software companies to announce their earnings, with Marvell taking over the next day. The data hasn't come out yet, but the market's heartbeat has already quickened. This time, I don't just want to see if $NVDA's revenue exceeded expectations. What AI needs to answer most now is not how many orders are left, but whether the money burned across the entire industry has started to turn into profit. NVIDIA needs to verify Blackwell demand, gross margin, and customer capital expenditure; Synopsys and $MRVL need to see how much longer chip design and network connectivity can continue to reap dividends. I'm more concerned about the software side. If the AI features of Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta don't bring in new orders, this round of the market is still about selling shovels to make money, with software companies continuing to pay the electricity bill for AI. Only when both hardware demand and software revenue improve simultaneously will capital dare to spread “AI commercialization” from a few leaders to the entire tech sector. Valuations are already filled with expectations. This week, just watch one sentence: Has AI started making money, or is it still only those selling computing power who are profiting? $CRM $SNDK #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 In the future, buying and selling stablecoins may also require stricter identity verification in the secondary market. The Bank Policy Institute (BPI) and The Clearing House (TCH) recently submitted comments to the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), requesting improvements to the customer identification rules under the GENIUS Stablecoin Act. Currently, the rules being advanced in the U.S. focus primarily on stablecoin issuers. For example, when users directly mint or redeem USDC with the issuer, the issuer must establish a Customer Identification Program (CIP) to verify name, address, identification documents, and other information. However, a large amount of stablecoins are not purchased directly from issuers. More users buy and sell USDC and USDT on exchanges, custodial wallets, and other platforms—this is the secondary market. BPI believes there is a regulatory gap here. They propose that as long as digital asset service providers establish account relationships with users and assist users in trading stablecoins, customer identification requirements should clearly apply. In practical terms: If U.S. regulators adopt this approach, KYC for users buying and selling stablecoins on compliant exchanges or custodial platforms may become more unified and tightened. But this does not mean "every on-chain wallet transfer must be pre-verified with real-name authentication," nor does it imply that DeFi and self-custody wallets are fully encompassed by the same rules. Another point worth noting: BPI hopes that stablecoin issuers can complete customer due diligence before allowing unfamiliar users to directly redeem; if the risk does not meet standards, they can refuse to establish a customer relationship. Stablecoins are increasingly resembling digital cash within the banking system. The benefit is higher regulatory acceptance and easier access to payments and corporate settlements; the cost is direct—the conflict between anonymity, permissionless circulation, and traditional financial compliance will become more apparent. This is currently only at the comment stage. How FinCEN ultimately drafts the rules will determine how far this line will go.
Orbit Topic Sitemap