Orbit Post Sitemap
$POPMART POPMART 2026 Mid-Year Report: More Opportunities Than Challenges?
Revenue for the first half of the year reached ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-over-year; adjusted net profit was ¥5.16 billion, up 9.5% year-over-year. Profit growth has clearly slowed, and management frankly admits it is highly likely to meet the initial 20% revenue target for the year, designating this year as a year of operational adjustment.
Opportunities:
1. Domestic foundation is solid, with mainland revenue soaring 47.3%. Membership has surpassed 100 million, with members contributing 92.9% of sales and a repurchase rate of 51.6%. Store strategy has shifted to efficiency improvement rather than blind expansion.
2. Progress in transforming the IP matrix: LABUBU revenue declined by 7.5%, while Star People surged 580.6% to become the second largest IP. Six IPs exceeded ¥1 billion in half-year revenue, reducing reliance on a single blockbuster.
3. Cash flow is ample, with zero interest-bearing debt. A HKD 2–5 billion share buyback was launched, signaling management confidence; Duan Yongping also favors the company’s long-term fundamental value.
Existing Challenges:
Revenue in Asia-Pacific and the Americas declined by 9.7% and 16.5% respectively. Overseas markets are experiencing growing pains from declining traffic dividends, inventory, and supply chain optimization. Whether the popularity of Star People can be sustained long-term and the slight decline in gross margin require ongoing observation.
Overall, the current phase is an active adjustment cycle. Short-term pain is laying a solid foundation for the long term. Going forward, key focus areas include overseas recovery, sustainability of new IPs, and progress on the buyback implementation. Open every market community, and you'll find voices of "The Bull is coming!" everywhere. The comment section was flooded, short videos were repeatedly hyped, and everywhere people were proclaiming that the bull market had begun, as if entering the market meant waiting for assets to double. Everyone was swept up in this enthusiastic atmosphere, their hearts filled with anticipation. After a long period of decline and bottoming, many people have been stuck for a long time, their accounts stuck in losses for extended periods, desperately hoping for a sweeping rally to make up for all their previous losses. So as soon as you see a few bullish candlesticks appearing on the market and hear bloggers calling for a bullish market, your hope is instantly ignited, and you can't help but imagine a one-sided rise ahead. But reality is harsh. This rally came in a rush, with very limited increases and a pitifully short duration. Before the market could fully unfold, before most people had made decent profits, the rise abruptly stopped. After a brief upward move, selling pressure immediately hits. The market begins to fluctuate repeatedly, tugging up and down, and the hope that just sparked is gradually worn away. Many people are blinded by the slogan "The Bull is coming," rushing to buy heavily at the slightest rebound, afraid of missing the so-called bull market starting point. I thought this was the start of a trend reversal, eagerly hoping for a sustained surge, but after entering the market, I realized this was just a round of rebound and recovery, not the start of a real bull market. In the short term, this is just a pulse driven by concentrated short closing positions, not a continuous influx of incremental funds. A bull market is never just about words; it's the market that moves step by step, truly building it#财报观察员: POPMART shifts growth gears, can multiple IPs take over? POPMART's biggest dark horse in the half-year report, Star People IP surges 580.6% against the trend
Revenue reached ¥2.65 billion in the first half of the year, directly surpassing CRYBABY and DIMOO, rising to the second largest IP, with revenue share increasing from 2.8% to 15.4%.
On the other hand, THE MONSTERS (LABUBU) revenue declined 7.5% year-on-year, top-tier popularity cooled down, completing a key handover between old and new IPs, and the multi-IP matrix strategy shows initial results.
The growth rate includes a low base effect; further observation is needed on the sustainability of Star People’s popularity and overseas market expansion.BTC surges then consolidates, what does the massive ETF inflow mean?
After BTC surged to touch $78,800, it pulled back and is currently consolidating near the high around $77,000.
A very key signal has appeared in the capital flow: last week, the combined net inflow of US spot BTC+ETH ETFs was about $2.6 billion, marking the strongest single-week inflow since October last year.
Among them, the BTC spot ETF net inflow was $1.9 billion, and ETH nearly $700 million.
This is very important: this round of rally is no longer purely a short squeeze; spot institutional buying is genuinely stepping in to catch the market.
But risks are also right in front of us:
The market has reached a high level, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions. The core focus going forward is whether ETFs can continue to maintain this strong inflow.
Once the capital inflow slows down, the sell-off pressure from the previous rapid surge and the volatility impact from leveraged positions will be quickly amplified, leading to a sharp correction.
In summary:
✅ Institutions are putting real money in, providing fundamental support for the market
⚠️ High levels do not mean blindly bullish; the sustainability of capital inflow is the litmus test for a true or false breakout
The market is currently in a game: can ETF funds withstand the profit-taking pressure at high levels?
If inflows continue, the consolidation pattern has a chance to strengthen; once funds retreat, beware of severe pullbacks.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ 🔥 After a major earnings plunge, Duan Yongping's one sentence reveals the essence of investment $POPMART
Pop Mart's semi-annual report is out, showing slowed growth, LABUBU revenue decline, and cooling overseas business. The stock price once plunged nearly 9% at the open, with bearish voices everywhere online.
Duan Yongping, who holds a heavy position in POPMART, has been speaking frequently recently. Facing many netizens' doubts, he directly dropped a golden phrase:
"I don't care about public expectations, I only care about how the company will perform in the future, otherwise how would I make money?"
The market is currently tangled over whether short-term indicators meet targets and whether quarterly growth is high.
But Duan Yongping focuses on the company's fundamental basics:
✅ The domestic foundation is very solid, with mainland revenue soaring 47.3%, and over 100 million members building a highly sticky user moat
✅ IP transformation shows initial results, Star People revenue surged nearly 6 times, building a multi-IP matrix to gradually reduce reliance on LABUBU alone
✅ Holding tens of billions in cash flow, launching a buyback of up to HKD 5 billion, management actively supports the stock price
✅ Currently in an active adjustment cycle, slowing expansion pace, prioritizing smoothing overseas inventory, supply chain, and localized operations
Of course, risks objectively exist; overseas pains and whether new IP heat can sustain long-term remain unknown.
But this statement essentially reflects a typical long-termism mindset:
Stock prices in the short term are influenced by market sentiment and public expectations, but what ultimately determines a company's value is its long-term operational capability. $POPMART, a Beijing grocery store in 2010 that still relied on tricycle deliveries for restocking, reached revenue of ¥37.12 billion and adjusted net profit of ¥13.08 billion in 2025, with the LABUBU single IP generating ¥14.16 billion. In fifteen years, Pop Mart turned "adults buying toys" into a highly profitable business, but also put itself on the fire of "single IP dependency + blind box regulation + slowing overseas expansion." $POPMART POP MART's toughest challenge going overseas: turning viral traffic into a long-term business $POPMART
Pop Mart's overseas operations have now reached a very critical watershed.
The difficulty is increasing, but market attention has also reached its peak.
Last year, thanks to LABUBU's global viral explosion, overseas enjoyed a huge traffic dividend, and revenue saw explosive growth. But after the heat subsided, all problems were exposed. In the first half of 2026, Asia-Pacific revenue dropped by 9.7%, the Americas by 16.5%, and online traffic sharply declined. The short-term bubble brought by high popularity is now clearing out.
Many people equate the short-term overseas decline directly with failure in going abroad, but in fact, it's quite the opposite.
Previous growth was more of a phase peak brought by influencer viral hits; traffic came fast and heat faded quickly, with an unstable foundation.
True globalization absolutely cannot rely solely on a single IP's temporary overseas popularity.
Only by refining overseas operations from a brief traffic boom into a stable, repeatable, and sustainable business foundation can Pop Mart's long-term vision as a "global IP company" truly take shape.
The company's strategy has now clearly shifted: no longer blindly and wildly expanding stores, focusing instead on optimizing inventory, building localized operations, refining flagship stores as benchmarks, deeply cultivating single-store efficiency, and replacing past extensive scale-pushing with refined operations.
The domestic base has already firmly taken root. Whether overseas can endure the pain period next will be the decisive factor for the future ceiling.The rise of Bitcoin lacks fundamental support
The surge in Bitcoin is mainly because Trump approved the "Genius Act," which includes virtual currencies in the government's reserve targets. The approval of this act means the status of virtual currencies is further enhanced and solidified, but this is primarily Trump's will; the Federal Reserve will distort its implementation and pay lip service. The Federal Reserve will indeed buy virtual currencies, but how much and how to buy is decided by the Fed, which has little to do with the Genius Act. The positive aspect is that major virtual currencies will no longer be targeted by the US, their legality is strengthened and confirmed, and a small amount of capital will flow in.
The real upward trend of Bitcoin needs to be based on a new round of a sharp increase in employment rates, requiring a period of massive unemployment followed by a surge in employment. The real economy will take off again after eliminating backward industries. After AI, many industries have become outdated and need to be cleared out for the real economy to take off again, leading to a significant rise in prices of everything. Bitcoin and other virtual currencies will also surge several times.
This is the normal fundamental thinking logic, but speculative markets should never be certain of any rules; just act with a 60% probability and never believe the probability will reach over 99%. There is also a small possibility that Bitcoin will catch up directly to 90,000-110,000.
According to chart analysis and fundamental analysis, Bitcoin has normally rebounded in place and will head towards 40,000, which is about 50% of this rebound. #This judgment is just a higher probability. Currently, I have switched from short to profit and am now waiting with no position.$POPMART 🔥LABUBU's first revenue decline, a heavy 5 billion buyback, is the real opportunity for POPMART here? $POPMART
The half-year report revealed a major signal: top IP LABUBU's revenue dropped 7.5% year-on-year. Once the news broke, Hong Kong stocks plunged nearly 8.9% intraday, and panic spread instantly.
But many only saw the negative news, overlooking the solid multiple positive backstops behind it:
✅ Up to HKD 5 billion large-scale buyback to support the stock
With HKD 12.4 billion cash on hand and zero interest-bearing debt, cash flow is very solid. The large buyback is very likely for cancellation, directly boosting earnings per share. Management is showing confidence with real money, acknowledging the current undervaluation.
✅ Strong resilience in the domestic base
Mainland revenue surged 47.3%, not relying on aggressive store openings but significantly improving single-store efficiency. Membership surpassed 100 million with stable repurchase rates, firmly building a local moat.
✅ Key step forward in IP lineup transformation
Star People’s revenue soared nearly 6 times, quickly becoming the second largest IP. Currently, six IPs have half-year revenues exceeding 1 billion, gradually reducing reliance on the single LABUBU IP, shifting from single-IP dividends to a multi-IP driven model.
✅ Big investors bullish against the trend
Duan Yongping publicly stated that short-term growth slowdown does not mean fundamentals are broken; long-term prices already offer good value.
✅ Proactively choosing painful adjustments
Management proactively lowered performance expectations, positioning 2026 as a year of operational adjustment, prioritizing solving overseas inventory and supply chain issues. They are willing to sacrifice short-term growth to solidify the long-term foundation. JUST IN: Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf takes a shot at the U.S. bond market:
"Importing frozen meat to fix meat prices. Okay, that might work. What's the plan for bonds, import frozen yields?"
$BSB This chart was posted by a paid blogger called "Teacher Dabai" about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle theory. The core points are twofold:
**First layer: Cycle timetable**
He divides Bitcoin's history into perfectly symmetrical blocks—bull market 1,064 days, bear market 364 days, one cycle exactly 1,428 days (about 4 years), aligning with the halving cycle. According to his calculation, the bear market in 2026 has lasted 312 days, 52 days short of 364 days, roughly bottoming out in mid-October.
**Second layer: Decreasing decline**
Each bear market bottom has a smaller drop: -93% → -85% → -77% → -73% → this round -55%. This means the market matures and the drops become shallower; this round will drop at most to around $49,000 (calculated as -55% from the $109K peak).
**My judgment: The direction is right, but the numbers are contrived.**
Reasonable parts:
- The 4-year halving cycle does exist, and historically bull and bear alternations are roughly consistent
- The decreasing decline trend also holds—institutions entering and larger market cap do reduce volatility
- The big picture of "be greedy when others are fearful" is correct
Unbelievable parts:
1. **1,064 days and 364 days are artificially symmetrical.** From the 2022 November bottom to the 2025 January top is only 790 days, not 1,064. He stretches the timeline to fit the numbers.
2. **The -73% drop never happened.** The actual 2022 drop was -77% ($69K→$15.5K). He inserted an extra data point to smooth the decreasing curve.
3. **Being precise about "52 days left to bottom" is fortune-telling.** The market doesn't follow a calendar; the 2018 bear market lasted 364 days but this one doesn't have to.
4. **BTC is now $77K, only down 29% from the $109K peak,** far from the -55% ($49K) he claims. Either his -55% hasn't happened yet, or this round won't be that deep.
**Relation to your strategy:**
His "epic buying opportunity" direction aligns with your plan to build positions on pullbacks, but you don't need to trust his precise "mid-October bottom" timetable. You already have a staggered plan—first batch at $75.7K, second at $72K, third at $67K; buy when reached, wait if not.
If it really drops to $49K (-55%), that's an extreme black swan scenario, and even your third batch at $67K might not catch it. But the probability of this is low, and if it happens, it would be the best entry opportunity of your life.
**Summary: You can look at the chart, but don't trade strictly by it. The cycle theory is a rearview mirror, not a crystal ball. Your own staggered plan is much more reliable than his precise timetable.**Recently, BTC has broken out rapidly, with its price once approaching around $80,000. Many people think it's just news stimulation, but upon closer inspection, this rally is actually the result of four factors: macro, capital, policy, and leverage. First, improvement in macro liquidity expectations. The U.S. Treasury Department is expanding its long-term Treasury repurchase scale, which the market interprets as a signal to stabilize long-term interest rates and improve liquidity. After pressure on bond yields eased, the US dollar weakened and risk appetite increased, and Bitcoin, as a scarce asset, regained attention. Second, ETF funds are returning. Compared to the past when emotions were purely driven by emotion, the biggest difference in this round of rally is institutional spot capital participation. Recently, US BTC spot ETFs have seen consecutive net inflows, with weekly inflows exceeding $1.6 billion, indicating genuine buying in the market, not just short-term speculation. Third, regulatory expectations improved. The market is watching the advancement of the U.S. crypto regulatory framework, with reduced policy uncertainty helping institutions further allocate digital assets. Fourth, short liquidations act as accelerators. BTC had previously been volatile for a long time, with a large amount of short positions accumulating. When the price breaks through a key resistance, short positions are forced to close, creating a positive feedback pattern of "rise—liquidation—continued rise." Recently, the market has seen multi-billion dollar short liquidations, which is also a key reason for the rapid short-term surge. But it's important to note: short covering can kick the market into the market, but it cannot support a long-term upward trend on its own. What truly determines the trend next is whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and whether macro liquidity will continue to improve.Zcash recently broke through $840, reaching an eight-year high, as market revaluation sentiment for the privacy sector and zero-knowledge proof technology spreads to a broader infrastructure layer. Behind this rally is a dual resonance of technology and capital driven by the formal verification of privacy pools and the warming expectations for compliant trust products.
It is worth noting that the current macro environment is not calm. The US PMI hitting a four-year high has caused September rate hike divergences, and gold breaking through $4600 challenges traditional safe-haven logic. In this environment of divergent interest rate expectations and risk assets searching for new pricing anchors, crypto infrastructure with genuine technical barriers often better supports mid-term capital allocation needs than purely narrative-driven assets.
The position of $FIL in this context deserves serious consideration. The Filecoin network deeply relies on zero-knowledge proof technology and itself serves as decentralized infrastructure for privacy data storage. When the technical credibility of the privacy sector gains market endorsement through formal verification, this endorsement extends beyond a single token to the entire ZK technology stack.
The formal verification of privacy pools proves one thing: privacy and compliance can coexist. This is an important signal for on-chain sensitive data storage needs—when institutions and developers start seriously considering privacy data on-chain, they require not only privacy computing layers but also decentralized storage layers to accommodate this data. The Filecoin network occupies a key node in this chain.
Of course, the main driver of the current rally remains concentrated on ZEC itself; the nearly 9x leverage gap between futures and spot trading volumes indicates highly speculative market sentiment. Whether $FIL can shift from narrative linkage to independent demand pricing depends primarily on changes in actual on-chain storage usage and the progress of compliant storage product implementation.
Cross-market linkage logic also supports this judgment. Against the backdrop of gold reaching historic highs and bonds’ safe-haven status being challenged, some capital is seeking alternative assets that combine practical value with inflation resistance. Decentralized storage networks provide real data storage services, and this practicality becomes a relatively stable value support amid increasing macro uncertainty.
The technical revaluation of the privacy sector is a rare window of opportunity. If spot capital continues to support the privacy narrative and the approval process for compliant trust products advances, capital flowing from single privacy tokens to storage networks with underlying verification capabilities will be the most anticipated structural evolution of this rally. The long-term growth logic of $FIL is awaiting this narrative to complete the transition from sentiment to demand.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注The current surge method, look carefully before taking action: BTC surged sharply from 64,000 to 77,000–79,000 (touched 79,500 on 8/21), ETH rose nearly 30% weekly to over 2400, but on 8/23 it retreated from the high, with 24h long liquidations accounting for over 80% (880 million USD across the network).
The main drivers of this wave are the Treasury's balance sheet expansion + White House summit expectations + short covering ($3 billion short positions forcibly closed), while ETF net inflows of about 1.1 billion over two days are just taking over, not igniting the rally.
It's not that you can't enter the market, but you absolutely must not chase the bullish candles. Confirmation of a reversal requires three conditions: ① a pullback to 74,000–76,000/BTC or 2300–2350/ETH with volume contraction and stabilization; ② when rising again, spot volume ≥ 1.5 times the average volume of the previous 5 days; ③ ETF net inflows continuously for 3 consecutive days without interruption. Missing any one means a forced short squeeze tail wave.
Currently, the daily RSI is 82, indicating overbought; a giant whale sold 7,700 BTC in 3 days; chasing highs means taking over trapped positions. Wait for a pullback to catch, or a volume breakout above 80,000 to follow the right side; anything in between is just itchy hands tax.After ETH's violent surge, it's now time to test the relay.
In just one week, ETH has made a sharp rebound of nearly 30%, surging intraday to the $2500 mark.
Traders who chose to short against the trend at the high levels essentially participated in a collective "donation" drama worth over $1.1 billion.
In recent times, ETH short liquidations have cumulatively exceeded $1.1 billion. A large part of this rally comes from shorts being forced to cover their positions. Simply put, shorts were liquidated and forced to buy back, pushing the price up.
But the reality must be recognized: short squeezes are just the fuel for the boost. Once the short positions are exhausted, whether the market can continue to rise depends on whether spot buyers and institutional funds can take over the baton.
Don't simply attribute this rally to retail speculation. In the just-concluded trading week, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $697 million, setting a new single-week inflow record for 2026.
Wall Street institutions are no longer watching from the sidelines; they are entering with real money. Compared to retail traders who chase pumps and dumps repeatedly, institutional funds have longer holding periods, which is the most solid foundation for ETH to hold near $2400.
After touching $2500, the price quickly pulled back and is now oscillating around $2400. This shows a large amount of profit-taking above, with strong willingness to cash out.
The current market is like a runner who has just finished a sprint in a long race, needing to catch their breath and recover at the $2400 mark. The key focus in the next 48 hours is market performance; if it can stabilize here, it means institutional buying has fully absorbed this wave of selling pressure.
After the short-term surge, the market has accumulated a large amount of high-level long leverage, and risks have quietly built up. Once ETF inflows slow down and the already profitable positions start to flee en masse, a stampede-like crash could easily occur.
The $2350–$2450 range will become the main battleground for bulls and bears, with frequent sharp fluctuations becoming the norm.
As long as the gate for ETF fund inflows remains open, $2500 is merely a psychological barrier, far from the end of this rally. The current back-and-forth oscillation is more like the main players shaking off holders who are not mentally firm.
ETH is currently at a critical juncture where the short squeeze has ended and institutional funds are taking over the relay.
Avoid subjective top calls, and do not increase leverage in the consolidation range. Treat $2400 as the dividing line between strength and weakness; as long as institutional funds keep entering, shorts will continue to be under pressure.
$BTC is oscillating after the surge, $ETH funds continue to flow in #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
⚠️This is only a personal market review and does not constitute investment advice. Contract leverage carries extremely high risk.Actually, I started thinking at the beginning of August about how far this rebound could go.
At that time, the price was around 1860, and BTC seemed to be near 632. I thought it had been consolidating sideways for more than a month.
Could this rise be very strong?
My technical analysis back then suggested it could reach 728, or more aggressively 758.
But then I considered the macro factors: first, the expectations around the clarity bill;
second, it looked very much like an accumulation phase, and since accumulation had lasted over a month, the breakout strength should be at least above 20,000;
third, the issue with US debt, which has now reached a scale of 40 trillion dollars. It’s unlikely that interest rates will rise; more likely, they will be cut, either by diluting credit, cutting rates, or releasing liquidity.
However, there are two macro factors I’m bearish on: first, the long-term cycle direction is still bearish; second, Trump’s midterm elections. If he gets impeached, crypto will crash hard because Trump supports cryptocurrencies. If he is impeached, the next president will definitely bring market uncertainty, especially regarding regulation. If the clarity bill passes, will the new president try to repeal or strengthen regulations on Bitcoin and Ethereum? The market will anticipate this and might kill the bulls.
Another point is if MicroStrategy goes long at this level and keeps adding positions, but if a correction happens and MicroStrategy can’t hold on, they will be forced to sell a lot of $BTC, which is baffling.Today, the overall sentiment in altcoins is exuberant, but differentiation is obvious. $ZEC is the absolute focus today. Stimulated by Grayscale's submission of a Zcash ETF application, ZEC broke through $833 to hit a record high, rising over 40% in 24 hours, with a market cap reaching about $13.9 billion. However, note that this rally is mainly driven by contract leverage, with spot demand not keeping pace, resulting in huge 24-hour volatility and sharply increased risk of chasing highs. $OKB rose more than 10% intraday, touching $120, currently at $116.7, with a market cap of $24.69 billion, representing a steady catch-up rally. $SOL, on the other hand, showed a clear pullback, falling below the $90 mark, with a daily drop of over 4%. There is considerable short-term profit-taking pressure. Unlike the heated crypto market, memory chip stocks have also shown an independent trend but overall performed better than the broader market. $SKHYNIX was stimulated by a massive 40 trillion KRW buyback plan, with its US ADR rising about 4%; $SNDK has surged 561% year-to-date, and $MU is up over 2%. The memory sector has recently continued to strengthen against the trend, directly related to AI computing power demand and high bandwidth memory (HBM) prosperity. This sector has solid fundamentals and can be watched mid-term, but short-term gains are already large, so chasing highs requires caution. In summary: ZEC leads gains but carries high leverage-driven risk, $SOL is under short-term pressure, memory chip stocks have strong fundamentals but watch the pace. Overall market leverage is relatively high, so be very cautious when chasing gains. The macro expectation of interest rate cuts being blocked has caused liquidity in the crypto market to stagnate, while US AI chip and storage sectors are attracting cross-market capital overflow. BTC trading has stalled at $77,000 with futures volume plummeting by 70%, as funds shift toward $SNDK, which is releasing an 8TB SD card, and US stocks related to H200. Only if the expectation of rate cuts restarts or the AI premium in US stocks spreads outward can the crypto market complete another round of capital handoff. The key observation is whether BTC futures volume can rebound and effectively hold above the $77,000 level.
#特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元Guys, it's early Monday morning, and the US market is about to resume. For those who haven't held positions yet, I suggest waiting for the US market to open before entering. Liquidity was too thin over the weekend, and people lost their temper when institutional funds returned. Let's first sort out what happened over the weekend. BTC climbed from around 63,000 to a high of 79,500 during the week, with a weekly gain of over 22%. Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced that the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases would double to $4 billion per transaction, leading to lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, causing risk assets to take off immediately. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of about $1.9 billion over five days, with institutional funds steadily flowing in. But after the weekend when US stocks and ETFs stopped, the market was left with only contracts and leveraged funds playing. After BTC hit 79,500 on Friday, it dropped straight down, hitting a low near 75,500, then slowly rebounded back to 77,000 in the morning. BTC current price is around 77,000. The above range between 78,400 and 79,500 is a heavy pressure zone, which was just captured there once on Friday. Below, 76,300-76,600 is the first support; below 75,500 is the weekend low. This level cannot be lost any further. Personally, I'll wait until the 76,300-76,600 level stabilizes, then set the stop-loss below 75,500. If the US market opens with increased volume and breaks through 78,400, then the weekend will be a pure shakeout, with the potential for 79,500-80,000. ETH has also been strong this time, surging from around 2300 to a high of 2546 during the week. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw weekly net inflows exceeding $500 million, with a single-day peak of $189 million—a record high for October last yearBitcoin hovers with reduced volume around the $77,000 mark, while U.S. chip and hardware supply chains continue to accumulate under the catalyst of AI orders.
The Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.9 billion, but derivatives futures trading volume shrank by 70%, leaving the overall market in a wait-and-see mode.
SanDisk's launch of an 8TB SD card drove $SNDK up over 8%, combined with Nvidia's H200 chip backlog extending to Q2 next year, funds are flowing toward hardware with higher earnings visibility.
The delay in macro interest rate cut expectations has restrained broad expansion of high-risk assets, with cross-market liquidity favoring tech stocks supported by actual orders.
If edge AI's demand for large-capacity storage exceeds expectations, the U.S. tech premium will continue to strengthen; however, only if spot buying pushes Bitcoin through key resistance will the window for capital to return to crypto markets open.
If subsequent chip supply and demand ease leads to hardware valuation corrections, and macro interest rates remain high, tech stocks and crypto assets lacking incremental liquidity will face simultaneous downward pressure.
When crypto derivatives trading volume recovers and breaks out with increased volume, the logic of cross-market funds favoring a unilateral U.S. stock market will no longer hold.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether crypto futures trading volume can increase and recover to reverse liquidity diversion.
#特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大Before shorting $SOON, I took a look at the order book. Sell orders above 0.21 are piled up like a mountain, but buy orders below 0.2096 are as thin as paper.
This means that once someone starts dumping, the price will instantly collapse due to lack of support orders.
I'm shorting not because I predict it will fall, but because I confirm it "can't rise anymore." Currently at 0.1939, buy orders remain sparse. Set a stop loss at 0.20; if large buy orders appear below as support, indicating funds are bottom-fishing, exit immediately. $BTC $ETH While BTC is holding the 76K~77.4K range, the real battle in the market is not about price increase but about position reshuffling. On the surface, it looks like strong sideways movement, but the actual flow of funds is closer to movement between existing positions rather than new entries. This difference is key to understanding this range. - BTC is holding on by fluctuating between 76K~77.4K, but this is more accurately seen as due to the lack of concentrated selling pressure rather than strong buying power. - 74.8K is not just a simple support level; if this range breaks, it could trigger a chain of long liquidations rather than short liquidations. The market is already aware of this price, and this awareness is actually encouraging position reduction. - ETH is structurally weaker than BTC. With ETF demand decreasing, long liquidation pressure is accumulating, which explains why ETH continues to underperform BTC. Even if BTC rebounds, if ETH does not recover first, the overall rebound momentum for altcoins will be limited Let's talk about why I chose to short $TRUMP?
Shorting it is not simply a bet on sentiment; it's based on understanding its underlying structural bearish factors, a game of "buying expectations, selling reality."
First, it relies entirely on political IP hype with no actual value support. It is a political MEME coin with no technical implementation or ecosystem revenue; its price is entirely tied to the news heat around the figure. Positive news can only bring a short-lived spike, and once the hype fades, funds will quickly withdraw. Every time positive events occur, the price spikes and then falls back, with selling pressure arriving as the good news is realized.
Second, the token supply is highly concentrated, with long-term unlocking pressure looming. The vast majority of tokens are held by affiliated institutions, with unlocking plans continuing until 2028, continuously bringing potential selling pressure to the market. Large holders can sell at high levels anytime to harvest retail investors, locking the upside due to the token distribution structure. Most rebounds are short-term speculative moves.
Third, the political narrative carries double-sided risks. Positive news can pump the price, but negative news, polling declines, or regulatory inquiries can directly crash it. If related legislation restricting public officials' crypto assets is introduced, it will directly undermine the token's narrative foundation, with bearish risks far outweighing potential positives.
Fourth, it often decouples from the overall market trend. Even if BTC remains strong, $TRUMP can weaken independently. During broad market rallies, its gains are mostly short-term speculative hype, and funds quickly exit once the hype subsides.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Bitcoin bulls are increasingly trying to connect $BTC to the AI narrative. But what if the relationship works in the opposite direction? AI isn’t automatically bullish for Bitcoin. In some ways, it could become a serious challenge. AI and Bitcoin can compete for: ⚡ Electricity 💰 Speculative capital 🏗️ Data-center and computing infrastructure There’s also a deeper risk. As AI systems become more capable, they could potentially uncover vulnerabilities in Bitcoin’s software, cryptography, walletfrom here, a holder unloading a large block can erase much of CATE's rebound because CATE's 100 pools hold only $4.17m of quoted liquidity against a $54.61m market cap. one wallet sold 1.861m CATE, or 0.193% of live supply, in two trades six seconds apart during the minute the main PumpSwap pool hit its low after CATE fell 60.9% in 102 minutes. buyers then pushed CATE 62% off the low, but the price remained 36.6% below the high.BITCOIN IS FALLING — BUT THE REAL STORY MAY BE IN THE BOND MARKET
$BTC has pulled back from a recent high near $79.5K to around $76.8K. Looking at the chart, many would assume it’s simply profit-taking after a strong rally. But there may be another force at work: when U.S. Treasury yields rise, capital often rotates out of risk assets and toward safer returns.
Hidden signal: $BTC may not be weakening because of crypto itself — but because macro liquidity is tightening.The current ZEC price is $840, with privacy coin market sentiment soaring. The short-term trend is strong, but leverage risk is extremely high, so avoid blindly chasing the highs.
Technically, ZEC has risen over 60% in the past 7 days, with a 24-hour volatility of 45%, a market cap of $14 billion, ranking 12th in the market. The weekly chart shows a volume breakout after years of consolidation, the daily moving averages are in a bullish alignment, the trend has reversed, and bullish momentum is strong.
This round of gains stems from the clearing of negative factors combined with institutional positive catalysts. In early June, ZEC's privacy pool suffered an infinite minting vulnerability, causing the price to plummet from $630 to $250, triggering market panic. The team completed the fix within 48 hours, and by the end of July, the Ironwood upgrade was implemented, migrating a large amount of tokens to the new privacy pool, eliminating underlying risks.
Institutional catalysts continue to ferment. On August 21, Grayscale submitted its fifth amendment for the ZEC ETF, expected to launch around August 25. Multiple leading institutions are involved in market making and custody, with DCG subsidiaries planning to inject $160 million worth of ZEC, and institutions are expected to boost the market.
However, leverage risk has accumulated. ZEC futures daily trading volume approaches $10 billion, nine times the spot volume, with open interest accounting for 13% of market cap. Any SEC policy changes, market weakness, or negative news could trigger a long squeeze. Historically, ZEC often experiences pullbacks of similar magnitude after large rallies.
If you are not holding a position, do not chase the highs. Wait for a pullback to 750-780 to enter in batches, with a stop loss below 700. If volume supports a stable break above 855, short-term follow-up is possible, targeting $900-1000. Opportunities and risks coexist, so strictly control your position size. Why is $BTC suddenly ripping through a resistance level that held for so long? I think there are three forces at play—and they could all be happening at once. 1️⃣ Flight to safety The bond market has been moving, raising concerns around inflation and interest rates. When investors become less comfortable sitting in fixed income, some capital can rotate toward Bitcoin. 2️⃣ Short squeeze A lot of shorts were positioned around the resistance zone. Once BTC broke through, those positions were forceNot falling deeply, the bottom is very solid.
🔴 The four core negative factors currently suppressing the market (truly locking down the rise)
1. Trade war officially escalates, macro uncertainty maxed out
Latest confirmation:
The US has officially imposed a 50% tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods.
Canada directly fights back, announcing equal countermeasures starting September 8, and fully suspending US-Canada trade talks.
North American trade friction has completely escalated, global trade expectations weaken, risk asset appetite collectively cools, stock markets and crypto markets are under pressure simultaneously.
2. Geopolitical risks remain high, inflation expectations repeatedly rise
The situation in Iran and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz have not been resolved.
Geopolitical tensions can disturb oil prices at any time, pushing up inflation expectations and directly limiting global easing space.
3. Dual pressure from inflation and liquidity
As long as inflation expectations do not cool down, the market sees no easing window.
Without liquidity injection, all positive factors can only support the bottom but cannot drive a trend rally.
Market summary
Current market typical characteristics:
Bullish factors hold the bottom, bearish factors cap the top.
Therefore, the market will only show:
Small rebounds under pressure, rallies must fall back, oscillating consolidation, and both bulls and bears suffer.
There is no condition for a one-sided bull market, nor logic for a deep crash.
For a long time ahead, it will still be a structurally oscillating market, heavy on rhythm, light on direction.
Patience, position control, and not chasing highs are the core survival rules at this stage.
#BTC #ETH #MarketAnalysis #MacroMarket #CryptoMarket$CATI may have bounced hard, but the liquidity situation is raising serious questions. Across roughly 100 pools, $CATI has only $4.17M in quoted liquidity against a $54.61M market cap. That means a relatively large holder unloading can have a major impact on price. During the sell-off, one wallet dumped 1.861M CATE—about 0.193% of circulating supply—in two trades just six seconds apart. The result? $CATI dropped 60.9% in only 102 minutes. Buyers then stepped in and pushed the token 62% off the lI'm Li Xiaoxiao, giving you guys some encouragement! 🔥 The crypto market has been really intense lately, with many people shouting "The bull market is back." But I think the more explosive the price, the more you need to stay calm. Let's look at the latest data: BTC is currently about $77,000, up about 20% in the past 30 days; ETH is about $2,414, up about 29% in 30 days. Why is the rally so fierce 1️? ⃣ Short covering + capital inflow Previously, the market was very crowded. After BTC rebounded quickly from a low, a large number of short positions stopped losses or even liquidated, creating a positive feedback pattern of "rise—liquidation—continued rise." This is also a key reason for the acceleration of this rally. 2️⃣ Improved macro liquidity expectations Although US stocks have recently adjusted, risk asset sentiment has somewhat improved as US Treasury yields fall and markets renegotiate monetary policy expectations. Last week, the Nasdaq fell about 2.05% and the S&P 500 dropped about 1.4%, but BTC surged over 20% over the same period, indicating funds are seeking highly elastic assets again. 3️⃣ ETFs and institutional funds begin to rally. Recently, spot BTC ETF funds have clearly rebounded, with institutional buying once again becoming a key market support. The question is: is this a new round of trending market or a strong oversold rebound? My current judgment: the market has indeed strengthened, but it is not yet time to directly declare a "full bull market." Especially since BTC has been rising rapidly and continuously, short-term profit-taking is very substantial. The focus going forward is not chasing the rally but whether it can truly hold around $77,000.$MINIMAX → $ZHIPU: A leaderboard wallet with about 28.5k USD profit in nearly 30 days and profitable on 21 out of 24 trading days, closed approximately 50.7k USD worth of MINIMAX long positions between 14:26–14:40 UTC, gaining about 1.1k USD; 14 minutes later switched to ZHIPU, establishing about 46.1k USD short positions.
Official snapshots show the short positions remain, with around 35k USD of additional short orders still placed between 153–156 USD, and nearly full-position take-profit buy orders hanging around 149 USD. This is not an exit from the AI theme but a switch from one Chinese AI target to another for shorting. This is a single wallet tactical signal, not a market consensus.Has the bull market really arrived? When it rises, everyone looks at 200,000; when it falls, everyone expects it to go to zero.
Whenever the market rallies, people fantasize about BTC surging to 200,000; once it pulls back, zero-value rumors spread everywhere. This is a typical emotional bipolar thinking. A big rise does not equal a full bull market, and a pullback does not mean an immediate zero.
From the actual market perspective, much of this round's rise is driven by short squeezes causing passive buying. BTC spot ETFs only see intermittent capital inflows, with no continuous stable institutional incremental entry; on-chain activity mainly involves exchanging existing chips, with whales and smart money showing significant operational divergence—some taking profits at highs, others buying on dips, without collectively going all-in.
On the macro front, interest rate cut expectations are wavering, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and a full easing environment has not yet arrived. Currently, it can only be considered a strong rebound recovery, and key validation signals are still missing to confirm a complete bull market.
Reaching 200,000 requires massive incremental capital relay; relying solely on market sentiment makes this difficult. The probability of mainstream coins going to zero is extremely low, but 30-40% pullbacks during cycles are normal. The real zero-risk coins are mostly small altcoins.
Setting sky-high targets when prices rise and expecting zero when they fall is essentially a gambling-style subjective forecast. Trading requires avoiding these two extremes, not being driven by emotions, and making judgments based on market conditions, capital flows, and on-chain signals, while managing positions to cope with market uncertainty.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 ETH suddenly surged nearly 30%, but the real key is not $2500, it's whether this wave of funds is truly a "real buy".
ETH's movement these days has been quite fierce.
In just about a week, ETH quickly rose from a low point, once approaching $2500, with a weekly gain close to 30%. Many people see this as a rise now, but I think what's more worth paying attention to is that this increase is no longer just a simple rebound; it's a combination of ETF funds flowing back, short covering, and leveraged funds all squeezing together.
The screenshot mentions ETH surging near $2500 within 24 hours and then pulling back, which is basically correct. But according to the latest data, around August 23, ETH had already returned to oscillate near $2400. In other words, $2500 did not become a firmly established position but more like a pressure zone after the first rapid surge.
This is also where I think caution is needed going forward.
In the early stage of this rise, short liquidations clearly amplified the market. Shorts forced to close positions naturally create continuous buying, so the higher ETH rises, the more uncomfortable shorts get, and the more uncomfortable they get, the more they need to cover, eventually forming a typical short squeeze rally.
But a short squeeze can only push the market up; it cannot guarantee the market will keep rising.
What truly determines whether ETH can enter a second phase of gains is whether ETF funds can continue to flow back. Recently, the US spot Ethereum ETF has seen consecutive net inflows again, with about $221 million net inflow on August 20 alone, indicating that this round of rise is not purely contract funds hyping themselves; there is indeed new support on the spot side.
However, the problem is also obvious.
The ETH futures market remains very active. The latest data shows ETH open interest is still around $32 billion, and 24-hour contract trading volume far exceeds spot trading volume. After leveraged funds pile up again, it means volatility will not end with the rise; it may actually increase.
So my personal view is that the $2400 level is more important than $2500.
If ETH can slowly digest profit-taking above $2400 while ETFs continue to maintain net inflows, then $2500 is not the end but possibly the starting point for the next wave.
But if fund flows slow down quickly and contract positions continue to increase wildly, then this nearly 30% rapid rise can easily turn from a short squeeze rally into a high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
ETH now is no longer the ETH at the low level a few days ago that no one paid attention to.
The higher it goes, the more you can't just look at the gains. What really deserves close watching is whether ETF funds keep coming in, whether the $2400 level can hold, and whether leveraged funds will pile up again to dangerous levels.
I tend to believe that this round of ETH rebound is not completely over yet, but the upcoming trend is unlikely to surge as fiercely as it did a few days ago.
The area around $2500 is just the first test.
The real trend depends on whether this wave of funds can stay.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 THIS $BTC SUMMER SQUEEZE FEELS VERY Familiar
We’ve seen this kind of move before..
In 2018, a summer short squeeze wiped out around $300M, but the bear market still continued for months after that.
Now in 2026, the squeeze is much bigger, with around $5B liquidated.
So I still think one more strong flush could happen before the market fully settles.
I’m personally DCA’ing over the next 2–4 months instead of trying to catch the exact bottom.
What’s your view final flush first, or is the bottom Before entering the market, a major exchange just experienced a brief outage or matching delay lasting a few minutes. $ETH
Historical experience tells me that immediately after such technical failures are resolved, algorithmic trading and programmatic arbitrage funds often flood in, causing a sharp upward correction in a short time.
I opened a 100x position at 2375.94, taking advantage of this "technical failure dividend." Now at 2443.66, this compensatory buying has already been realized. Defend at 2390, and exit immediately if volume shrinks. $BTC $SOL #ZEC hits an all-time high on the site, privacy asset revaluation
ZEC once broke through $859, setting a new high on the site, driven by ETF expectations + technical upgrades + mining expansion — is the "value revaluation" of privacy assets coming?
There are three clear catalytic clues behind this round of rally.
Catalyst One: ETF Expectations
Grayscale is advancing the conversion of Zcash Trust into a spot ETF, with the latest revised filing proposing to rename it The Zcash ETF. If approved, it will become the first spot ETF in the privacy asset category, carrying significant demonstration effects for the sector.
Catalyst Two: Technical Upgrades
The Zcash Ironwood upgrade was activated in July, enhancing supply verifiability through a new privacy pool and turnstile mechanism. This upgrade seeks a better balance between privacy protection and compliance, helping ZEC expand its application scenarios within regulatory frameworks.
Catalyst Three: Mining Expansion
Cypherpunk Technologies announced the launch of a Zcash mining facility accounting for about 18% of the total network hashrate, indicating significant capital is betting on the security and future value of the Zcash network.
This round of ZEC's rise is the resonant result of the triple drivers: "ETF expectations + technical upgrades + mining expansion." The $859 mark is a new high on the site but not the end of the entire cycle — the real pricing power lies in the SEC's approval window, not on the candlestick chart.#BTC fluctuates after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in #A round of rebound ends, mainstream coins collectively enter short-term correction🚨
After a week of strong rally, mainstream coins face a phase of adjustment.
BTC is consolidating around $77,000 to digest gains, ETH shows a significantly stronger pullback, overall market funds show increased risk aversion, and altcoins generally face pressure and weaken.
📊 Market Overview
$BTC: Current price around $77,200–$77,500, slight 24-hour decline of 0.4%-1.1%, after surging to $78,000-$79,500 this week, it encountered resistance and is digesting previous long profits.
$ETH: Current price around $2,400–$2,450, 24-hour drop of 0.9%-4.9%, performance notably weaker than BTC, once falling below the $2,400 mark.
📉 Market Status
1. Altcoins under collective pressure: As leading mainstream coins retreat, most altcoins weaken simultaneously, for example, TAC dropped over 40% in 24 hours, and small-cap coins face sharply increased volatility risk.
2. Leveraged funds liquidation: Approximately $895 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with ETH leading at $274 million liquidated; long and short liquidation ratio close to 1:1.
3. Review of this round: The previous week’s rebound was driven jointly by US Treasury repo, short squeeze (45 billion USD liquidated over three days), and institutional ETF fund inflows.
⚠️ Key points to watch going forward
Controversy in this rally: Part of the move comes from short covering, not entirely new incremental long positions; however, Bitfinex data shows funding rates falling, indicating real buying support.
Key resistance: The core resistance zone for BTC is between $78,500 and $80,000.
Risk warning: Multiple institutions warn that there is still about 20% downside adjustment risk ahead; avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
$BTC $ETHBefore opening a position on $TRUMP, I took a look at the funding rate and open interest. Although the rate was positive, the open interest was slightly increasing, indicating that quite a few shorts were trying to top against the trend.
The 2.569 level is exactly their pain point. I went long there, waiting for them to be unable to bear the floating losses and close their positions, which would force passive buying and push the price up.
Currently at 2.668, the liquidation wave has already passed once. Defense is set at 2.58. If the funding rate turns negative and open interest drops sharply, it means the shorts have fled, and I will exit as well. $BTC $ETH #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注
Trump disclosed 1,051 securities transactions in June, with holdings covering Berkshire, Coinbase, Palantir—who oversees the president's stock account?
Documents from the U.S. Office of Government Ethics (OGE) show that Trump disclosed over 1,000 securities transactions in June, with media reports counting 1,051 transactions, and the disclosed amount range approximately between $78.1 million and $263.1 million.
Involved assets include: Traditional finance: Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, Mastercard; Tech giants: Meta; Crypto and data: Coinbase, Palantir
Key facts to clarify:
1. The OGE documents disclose amount ranges, not exact transaction amounts.
2. The White House states that the relevant accounts are managed by independent managers, and the president himself does not participate in specific decisions.
When a president's policy statements can directly impact the market performance of technology, finance, and crypto assets, whether such transaction disclosures are sufficiently transparent continues to raise market concerns about conflicts of interest and information advantages.
Trump's transaction disclosures comply with procedural requirements, but there remains a gap between "compliance" and "uncontroversial." When a president's remarks can drive BTC up 10%, and policy statements can affect financial stock valuations, the market naturally questions whether there is a connection between the timing of these transactions and policy statements. Bitcoin pumpers are trying to hitch Bitcoin to the AI wagon, hoping investors will see it as part of the AI trade. They have it backwards. AI isn’t bullish for Bitcoin; it’s a threat to it.
AI competes with Bitcoin for speculative capital, electricity, and data-center infrastructure. Plus, as AI becomes more powerful, it could discover vulnerabilities in Bitcoin’s code, cryptography, wallets, or network that humans have missed. Bitcoin’s security and protocol-enforced scarcity ultimately$BTC What happened this week
There are only three reasons for the surge:
1. Shorts were liquidated—about $4.5 billion worth of short positions in the crypto market were forcibly closed in the past three days, and passive buying pushed prices up
2. ETF funds returned—this week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows exceeding $1 billion
3. Policy catalyst—the US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, long-term yields declined, and risk appetite warmed up #Bitcoin posts strongest weekly gain since March 2023 June's position disclosures show funds flowing from high-volatility tech stocks to high cash flow defensive assets, with the core conflict being the lag in position data versus the valuation recovery of growth stocks.
Trump liquidated $META and increased holdings in $PLTR, Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, and Mastercard, indicating a shift of large capital from high-valuation preferences back to strong cash flow defensive assets. This position adjustment reflects market expectations of persistent inflation and declining risk appetite.
In the ranking of driving factors, contraction in macro risk appetite is first, followed by corporate cash flow robustness, with tech concept premium ability ranking last. Defensive value stocks demonstrate stronger defensive characteristics in the event risk transmission path.
The bullish scenario condition is a continued decline in market risk appetite, accelerating fund withdrawal from high-valuation sectors. It is necessary to observe the premium changes of value stocks relative to growth stocks; if low-valuation assets continue to receive inflows, the defensive rotation pattern will be further consolidated.
The bearish scenario condition is an improvement in liquidity expectations, with funds flowing back to high-beta assets. If high-volatility tech stocks experience sentiment recovery and volume rebound, retracing the June rebalancing record will face the risk of a second valuation fluctuation loss.
The condition for judgment failure is a rapid valuation reshaping of the tech sector, with funds regaining dominance, causing the relative returns of defensive rebalancing portfolios to lag significantly.
The most important observation variable in the next 7 days is the flow switching rhythm of funds between growth stocks represented by $META and defensive stocks represented by $PLTR.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落$ETH surges to 2500: Is the ticket to 3000 held by the whales?
As of August 23, 2026, ETH touched $2542 before retreating to around $2388, a 27% surge in five days. 2500 has been trampled underfoot, but is the ticket to 3000 in hand?
If the 2300 support holds, 2500-2550 will become the new attack target. However, over ten million ETH tokens are stacked near 3000, forming a "sell pressure wall" that cannot be underestimated. Currently, it looks more like a valuation correction rather than a trend reversal.
On-chain signals are optimistic: ETFs have seen net inflows of about $512 million over four consecutive days, the best this year; old coin holders are reluctant to sell, with coin age consumption indicators running low; $1.69 billion shorts were cleared in three days; large funds are planning portfolio adjustments mainly through OTC platforms, with no signs of panic selling.
But hidden dangers remain: RSI approaches 87, indicating deep overbought conditions; USDT has shrunk by about $4 billion over sixty days, signaling liquidity withdrawal; the SEC regulatory framework is still in the proposal stage, with high policy uncertainty.
Institutional target prices diverge significantly—Citibank’s $2240 has been surpassed, Standard Chartered looks at 4000, Tom Lee sees 5000. The market is shifting from a "technical narrative" to an "institutional narrative."
Key price levels: support at 2300 → 2172 → 2000; resistance at 2500-2550 → 2750 → 3000.
Whales are buying but never chase the rally—the market always rewards patience and punishes impulsiveness.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $BTC Sunday market basically flatlined. BTC hovered around 77,000 all day, peaking just above 77,200 and never dropping below 76,900. The daily volatility was even less than some hours last week. ETH fluctuated between 2,400 and 2,450 in that range. SOL was just above 90, showing the same pattern. Weekend liquidity is thin, so prices neither rise nor fall. Days like this are perfect for clearing last week's gains. To conclude, BTC's 22% weekly surge last week has mostly been digested. The market is now waiting for the next catalyst, not holding back a big move. Where will that next catalyst come from? Today, I want to talk about money itself. On August 20, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $606 million, and the Ethereum spot ETF had $221 million. The next day, combined trading volume exceeded $7.5 billion. The numbers look impressive, but there was another news item the same week: Hashdex's DeFi spot Bitcoin ETF was suspended and liquidated on NYSE Arca on August 17 due to small scale and poor liquidity. On one hand, there's a flood of capital; on the other, small ponds run dry. Both events happened in the same sector in the same week. So ETFs are never a story of broad gains; they are a winner-takes-all game. Money only flows to the top three. Products ranked eighth or ninth, even if perfectly positioned, still can't survive. This is a bit like the dating market—everyone says they're looking for true love, but... $AAOI disclosed an ATM equity sale plan with a cap of $600 million after market close.
After the initial stock price surge, management chose to exchange high-position chips for expansion funds, directly disturbing the risk appetite of long positions.
If the issuance expectation triggers capital risk aversion and position reduction, short-term price elasticity will be significantly suppressed.
If subsequent AI optical communication order release strength is sufficient to offset equity dilution, there is still room for valuation logic recovery.
Focus on observing the actual absorption strength of potential financing selling pressure through chip turnover after the market opens.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceXWeekend started with a rise then fell back, another flash crash occurred
On August 23, the cryptocurrency market continued its intense weekend volatility, marking the best weekly performance since March 2023. However, on Sunday the market turned to a correction, with Bitcoin $BTC falling below the $76,000 mark, hitting a low of $75,500 before rebounding above $77,000; Ethereum $ETH performed weaker, dropping over 5% to around $2,383.
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, liquidations across the network totaled $349 million, with long position liquidations at $205 million; other statistics indicate liquidation amounts as high as $995 million to $1.238 billion. Over 170,000 people worldwide were affected.
Reasons for the decline: leverage cascade + weekend liquidity drought
The main cause of this correction was not an external black swan event. In the previous three days, Bitcoin violently surged from about $64,000 to above $77,000, accumulating a large number of high-leverage long positions. When the price hit resistance and triggered an initial pullback, the crowded long positions triggered a chain of forced liquidations. Coupled with insufficient weekend liquidity and a thin order book, sell orders easily broke through multiple price levels, amplifying the "flash crash" drop. Additionally, profit-taking from earlier gains and geopolitical tensions also pressured risk assets.
Institutional activity: ETF funds continue to flow in
Despite the weekend correction, this week the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of $1.92 billion, and the Ethereum ETF net inflow was about $700 million, both the strongest weekly performances in recent months. Whether institutional funds continue to support the market remains a key variable to watch going forward. $BTC My short position is still open
As long as it doesn't break the new high, the problem isn't big
The current long-short ratio is severely imbalanced
Out of 5600 smart money traders, 4600 are long
The long side is already very crowded
Unrealized profits exceed $100 million
If these positions are not liquidated, it will be hard to rise
Before the explosive surge to 65000, I looked at the long-short ratio of $ETH
At that time, the number of shorts exceeded longs, and short positions were in profit
It can still be bullish afterward, but a drop to liquidate long positions is possible
The 64000 short position still has a chance to be unwound.
$SOL
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温
"US PMI Hits Four-Year High, September Rate Hike Disagreements Heat Up"
US manufacturing PMI surged to 55.6, marking the fastest expansion rate in nearly four years.
Initial jobless claims dropped to 206,000, with a strong real economy directly extinguishing rate cut expectations.
Order output rebounded across the board combined with labor stickiness, prompting Federal Reserve officials to warn of a lack of basis for rate cuts.
Maintaining high interest rates for longer has become the consensus, putting pressure on tech valuations overly reliant on cheap liquidity.
The unwinding of rate cut premiums forces capital to flow back into hard cash flow assets; seasoned investors have long seen the reality.
Completely abandoning the fantasy of significant easing in September, growth positions are reduced to 20% with strict stop-loss at the Nasdaq 19500 level. $BTC Half a month ago, the entire network was anxiously discussing a "second dip," but this week institutions have firmly taught the shorts a lesson with a real cash injection of 2.6 billion USD.
Bitcoin spot ETFs grabbed 1.9 billion USD in a single week, while Ethereum ETFs simultaneously attracted nearly 700 million USD. The most alarming factor is not the sheer size of the numbers, but the cold and decisive shift in sentiment—without any buildup or buffer, one moment liquidity was frozen, and the next moment institutional-level clear buying swept through.
The key signal here is very clear: this is not a "risk-averse bloodletting" of a single major coin, but a resonant accumulation of BTC and ETH, indicating that institutions are systematically replenishing positions across the entire crypto market.
Big money never cares about buying at the absolute bottom; their core demand is to "ensure chips are in hand." The gloom of consecutive weeks of net outflows has been wiped away by this week's violent accumulation.
History is always strikingly similar—the real turning points often emerge amid despair and hesitation. When large volumes of capital enter, there is never any fanfare, nor do they offer a comfortable "pull back to pick up" opportunity for onlookers. The biggest risk now is no longer a breakdown or crash, but your obsession with "waiting for a pullback to enter" and ultimately being left behind by the main upward wave.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？
#以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议