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$BTC Federal Reserve Chair Wash's statement last week, "Let the market raise rates for the Fed," directly confused the bond market. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged wildly, and the Treasury tried to rescue the situation with repurchases, but the next day it was hit hard by PMI data and oil prices, making the intervention futile.
$ETH On Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium, Wash is scheduled to speak. He is now in a dilemma—he needs to rebuild market trust, which likely means admitting weakness and emphasizing "inflation risks remain, rate hikes not ruled out"; but he can't let go of his long-term obsession with "balance sheet reduction + rate cuts," and is still clamoring to reduce communication and cut the number of FOMC meetings. The problem is, he bets AI can suppress inflation, but currently oil prices are rising and capital expenditures are expanding, so his long-term ideals are completely out of sync with short-term reality.
$SOL For the crypto world, this is crucial. If Wash softens and shows flexibility, the dollar will rebound and gold will come under pressure; if he continues to be stubborn, market trust will collapse, "degenerate trading" will continue, dollar credit will keep being consumed, and gold will have to surge again.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
· Gold-related (PAXG, XAUT): Wash stubborn → bullish; Wash flexible → short-term pullback
· Dollar index-related (USDC, USDT): Wash flexible → dollar support → stablecoin demand may rise
· Risk assets (BTC, ETH): High uncertainty, wait for Friday's speech to land, don't rush to 0xcf91b70017eabde82c9671e30e5502d312ea6eb2 Reasons for $BTC sharp rebound:
1: The U.S. Treasury expanded U.S. debt repurchases, causing Bitcoin and gold to resonate and strengthen together, marking an inflation-resistant asset trend. Pay close attention to Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday as a key macro turning point; positive earnings could once again drive the crypto and storage markets.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash TRUMP: The "election trade" of the political meme coin is fading, and a billion-dollar market cap can't withstand a single correction
TRUMP token is priced at $2.44, with a market cap of $610 million, plunging 10% in 24 hours, and a daily volume of $38.79 million — this is not a normal correction but a hallmark signal of the "Trump trade" unraveling. The price range is $2.38-$2.75, with a double-digit daily drop, and liquidity is extremely fragile in the face of panic.
Smart money signals again show net short positions, zero holdings, and zero traders. However, in an active market with nearly $39 million daily volume and turnover exceeding 6%, professional funds choosing "zero holdings" is extremely rare — usually, high volatility and high liquidity assets attract market makers. This indicates smart money's judgment: TRUMP's volatility stems from emotional speculation rather than fundamentals, and the market-making risk far outweighs the reward, so it's better to exit directly.
Social sentiment is completely silent across all dimensions; heat rankings and bullish/bearish ratios are all N/A. The irony is that a meme coin centered on "social heat" has lost even discussion momentum. The upcoming election should have been a catalyst, but the market has already priced in "Trump's election," exhausting the positive factors and triggering negative ones. Once the election results are announced, regardless of outcome, the narrative bonus immediately drops to zero.
Core judgment: TRUMP is in a dangerous zone of "narrative fulfillment eve, inflated liquidity, and smart money withdrawal," and is very likely to face a halving-style correction after the election results are announced. #Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Wash Clarify the Policy Path?
$BTC performance is exciting, breaking above $80,000, reaching a high of $81,000, previously BTC was around $62,000 at a lower point.
This means an increase of nearly $20,000! And it was completed within the past week, with the main surge happening in just a few days. Some institutions predict BTC could reach $100,000 within the year, so if similar news comes out again, it might happen within a week.
$ETH performance is relatively stronger compared to BTC, first breaking through the previous high of 2466.
The market is now focusing on Wash's speech at Jackson Hole 🤔 The Fed's further statements will influence market direction.
Previously, the US imposed comprehensive sanctions on Iran, causing $CL crude oil to decline, but some analyses point out that oil mainly flowed to Chinese buyers. In fact, the US also stated it does not want to trigger a "financial crisis," so personally, I think the sanctions are relatively limited, and the probability of intensifying substantial sanctions is low; otherwise, it would be hurting both the enemy and itself.
My personal guess is that Wash might take a neutral stance or a falsely hawkish tone. Long-term US Treasury yields are rising, the "cost" of rate hikes is high, political pressure from the White House, and current nonfarm payroll data support no urgency to raise rates.
The higher probability is to continue maintaining rates unchanged, or relatively favorable would be a disguised "rate cut" such as continuing to purchase long-term US Treasuries and continuing balance sheet expansion to relatively release some liquidity 🤔
Beware of risks!
@OKX星球 @米妮Minnie_OKX BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. BTC surging to 80k this time is honestly not surprising, but whether it can hold, I’d bet 80% it will wobble for a couple of days before deciding the direction.
What’s the logic behind this move? US Treasury repo suppresses long-term rates, the dollar is soft, depreciation trades are reversing, spot ETF net inflow of $1.9 billion k#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have fallen amid repo expectations, with $BTC surging past the $80,000 mark, and the liquidity overflow sentiment simultaneously spreading to the forefront of the U.S. stock semiconductor supply chain.
As an upstream indium phosphide substrate supplier for optical interconnects, $AXTI has retraced to around $67 after earlier adjustments, with the market awaiting new guidance.
The liquidity easing expectations brought by the decline in U.S. Treasury rates, combined with the market's anticipation of $NVDA's upcoming $92 billion revenue disclosure, form a macro push resonating between the computing power chain and risk assets.
This overlay of macro interest rate easing and high industry growth expectations has created stabilization conditions at the $67 support level for the fundamentals of upstream orders exceeding $100 million on hand.
If Nvidia's earnings and guidance fully exceed expectations, the surge in optical interconnect demand will drive buying support, and the support level is expected to become the starting point for a new round of recovery and rebound.
If the earnings guidance fails to match the high valuation or if there is divergence in computing power capital expenditures, the industry chain sentiment may turn cold, potentially prompting capital withdrawal and a break below the $67 threshold.
If long-term yields rise again later or the semiconductor chain's overall valuation corrects, the current liquidity overflow-based linkage logic will be disproven.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is the strength of capital support at the critical $67 level in the optical interconnect sector following Nvidia's earnings release.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 It turns out that the 10 addresses associated with bit collectively hold over $323 million in $ETH and $BTC long positions, with unrealized profits exceeding $41.95 million! 🤯
▶︎ ETH long positions: holding 65,977.9684 ETH ($165 million), unrealized profits over $15.08 million
▶︎ BTC long positions: holding 2000 BTC ($158 million), unrealized profits over $26.87 million
This does not even include the $9.897 million profit previously realized by address 0x6c8…d84f6
Who exactly is this powerful entity, financially strong and so early to firmly go long.. ETH is choosing its direction in front of the resistance zone. While ETF inflows support the trend, can the price break through $2,500 and accelerate? The key observation here is cross-market transmission. ETH does not move alone; the outcome is shaped by BTC directionality, U.S. spot ETF capital flows, and derivative market positioning. Last week, about $700 million flowed into the ETH spot ETF, a clear sign of improved supply and demand. However, whether the market has already priced in this inflow or if it remains fuel for further gains is what determines the interpretation of the current price level. Looking at the price structure, ETH is currently fluctuating between $2,450 and $2,500. There has been a rebound from the previous low, but to complete the uptrend, it must decisively break through $2,500 with volume. This zone is not just simple resistance but a point where breakeven positions and short squeezes overlap, so if it breaks upward, it could quickly move up to $2,560. On the downsideThe Ministry of Finance using TGA to buy long-term bonds is like giving the bond market a painkiller injection.
The problem is, a painkiller is not a cure. The high yield on long-term bonds is not just due to a lack of buyers, but also because of fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, AI capital expenditure competing for funds, and term premiums all pushing yields up together.
If TGA is really used to expand buybacks, it can certainly suppress volatility in the short term and make the market feel that the Ministry of Finance is taking action. But the harsh reality of the bond market is that it doesn't respond much to posturing; it only looks at long-term supply and demand.
So I would take this as a signal: the authorities are starting to feel uneasy. But "uneasy" is still far from "able to suppress." If the bond market doesn't believe it, all risk assets will suffer accordingly.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ On August 24, CNBC cited two senior Treasury Department officials saying that Treasury Secretary Becent may use nearly $950 billion to $1 trillion in the Treasury's General Account (TGA) to provide ammunition for the expanded long-term debt buyback program announced last week. Following the news, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from 5.276% to around 5.22%. What is TGA? Simply put, it is the U.S. government's demand checking account at the Federal Reserve—an emergency cash reserve—funded by taxes already collected. During Biden's administration, the TGA's target balance was about $550–600 billion, and after Becent took office, it has accumulated to about $950 billion. Previously, the market thought it would be a good move. When Becent just announced last week that it would double the maximum repurchase cap for long-term Treasury bonds from 2 billion to "at least 4 billion," the market assumed he would raise funds by issuing short-term Treasury bills—selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, commonly known as the "Treasury version of distortion." However, this approach does not release new liquidity, and the market doubts that the "left hand to right hand" strategy has limited effectiveness. What's different about using TGA? Using TGA cash to directly buy bonds is equivalent to injecting the government's existing cash into the market under the Federal Reserve's pressure. Analysts point out that this will give the Treasury Department "considerable firepower" to influence long-term bond yields. Even small-scale deployments, or simply making the market aware that "the Treasury is willing to use the TGA," can impact yields. But there is a fundamental contradiction here—the Treasury's money does not just disappear into thin air. After the TGA is spent, if Becent wants to maintain nearly $1 trillion in accounts,Brothers, today's bearish candle for SNDK directly smashed through the previous consolidation platform.
Just checked the data, on Monday SNDK closed at $1,493.12, a single-day plunge of 6.45%, with an intraday low hitting $1,416.56. The closing price is already below last Friday's $1,596. The $1,506 reported by brothers was already a relatively high intraday point; the close was even lower than that.
📉 What happened on the market? The storage sector collectively "crashed"
This plunge is not because SNDK itself blew up, but because the entire storage chip sector was ground down.
Intraday Monday, SNDK once dropped over 10%, one of the worst in the storage sector. Seagate fell 6.51%, Micron nearly 6%, SK Hynix also dropped over 5%.
Core trigger: Samsung's shareholder return plan details fell short of expectations. Analysts pointed out that after the disappointment in Samsung's plan, combined with rising market doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, high-valued storage stocks face profit-taking pressure. Simply put: they had risen too much before, and any excuse can trigger a stampede.
Looking at the data from the past week, SNDK's trend is a typical roller coaster:
· August 17: Intraday high $1,827.99, single-day surge nearly 9%
· August 24: Low smashed to $1,416.56, closed at $1,493.12
· One week: retraced over 20% from the high
💎 Has the fundamental changed?
No. This is also the most frustrating part about this stock.
· Fiscal year 2026 revenue $20.25 billion, net profit $11.43 billion, gross margin 80%+, net margin 56.46%
· Year-to-date increase still 529%, annual increase over 3000%
· Analysts' 1-year average target price $2,126, about 42% higher than current close
· 26 covering analysts, 20 rate "buy", only 2 neutral
The reason for the drop has nothing to do with the company itself — it rose too much, and the market needs to digest. From a low of $46 to $2,354, a nearly 50x increase in less than a year, with 50% or even 60% retracements in between being normal technical corrections.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· Long: wait for $1,400-$1,420 to confirm stabilization before considering, stop loss at $1,350, target $1,550-$1,600
· Short: if rebound to $1,550-$1,600 is weak, can try light positions, stop loss $1,650, target $1,450-$1,480
· Risk warning: sector sentiment is weak; if $1,400 does not hold, next observation level is around $1,300
#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 $BTC smart money is clearly diverging.
One high-value wallet with a 30-day profit of 414.2k USD still holds 1.24m USD BTC short positions, 40x full margin, liquidation price at 81.38k, only 1.27% away from the then 80.36k mark price, with no withdrawable balance left in the account.
Another wallet just reduced about 1.21m USD in ZEC, ETH, BTC, and PUMP long positions but still retains about 520k USD BTC long positions; a third wallet sold about 215k USD BTC spot and then converted to 425k USD, 2x isolated margin BTC long positions.
This is not consensus but a sharp divergence in risk appetite: some are deleveraging, some are taking low-leverage positions, and others are pushing the liquidation line very close.Bitcoin fell 14% in Q2. Institutional ETF holdings, on the other hand, rose 7.5%, reaching a historic high in proportion. Retail investors ran away, institutions are stepping in.
So why didn't the price go up?
I've thought about this question for quite a while. Later I saw an explanation: the buying in Q2 was "allocation-based," slow and steady, no rush. This time it's different, like a big institution finished approval and concentrated their position building, sparking a wave of follow-up.
But this explanation can't be verified. It might just be a story made up after the fact.
Interestingly, on August 19, the U.S. Treasury increased long-term bond repurchases, causing yields to drop, and Bitcoin jumped from 65,000 directly to nearly 80,000. The large-scale ETF inflows happened only after the price went up.
So strictly speaking, the spark for the rally wasn't the ETF, it was the Treasury.
But here's a problem—if the macro logic works so well, what was the capital doing below 70,000? What were they waiting for?
I tend to think the capital wasn't waiting for macro signals, but for the price itself to move first. Price rises first, then they find a reason. Whether that reason holds up is another matter; the Treasury's operation is a temporary fix, and inflation expectations could backfire once they rebound.
Another set of data worth noting: BlackRock and Fidelity accounted for 92% of the inflows.
This is not "institutions collectively entering the market." It's two players at the table.
Optimists say top institutions coming in will bring more people. Pessimists say once the biggest buyers stop, the data will look bad. Both sides have valid points, but the data can't answer a key question: have they bought enough?
Ultimately, bottom-fishing and chasing the rally may coexist. Within the same group of institutions, some think above 70,000 is still cheap, others are purely following the trend. The market prices these two completely different things together.
The next few weeks will be more telling. When the tailwind of short liquidations stops, and IBIT single-day inflows drop from 200 million to 20 million, we'll see who's really buying.
For now, no one can see clearly.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
$BTC $ETH $SPCX BTC has reclaimed $80,000. The previous key support at 75.8K—77K remains intact for now, so the short-term trend is still bullish.
Funding: BlackRock IBIT continues to be the main buyer, indicating that the rally is not solely reliant on contract leverage. Meanwhile, BTC's open interest (OI) in unclosed contracts is about $55 billion, with no signs yet of an overheated structure characterized by "price surge + runaway OI." On-chain, about $52 million worth of BTC has flowed out from Coinbase, signaling institutional custody/accumulation.
The liquidation structure is also bullish: there is concentrated short liquidation around 78K—81.2K, and BTC is currently sweeping shorts upward. The US Dollar Index is around 98.96, and US Treasury yields have slightly retreated, so the macro environment is not exerting obvious pressure for now.
The next critical resistance is at $81,100—81,500. If there is a valid 4-hour breakout and BTC holds above this level, with moderate OI growth and non-excessive funding rates, the next targets are $83K followed by $85K—86K.
It is not recommended to chase longs directly above 80K. A better strategy is to wait for a pullback and stabilization around $78K—79K to go long, or to enter after a breakout above 81.5K followed by a pullback confirmation. If BTC falls back below 78K, beware of a false breakout; key support levels below are $76.7K, $75.5K, and $74.5K.
Summary: 🟢 The bullish reversal has about a 75% probability of holding, with 81.5K being the confirmation level to further open up upside potential.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 This round shows significant divergence: $BTC is up 22.8% over 30 days, $POL +50%, $XRP +36% leading the pack, but many mainstream coins haven't kept up at all.
However, lagging behind doesn't mean there's potential for a catch-up rally. $SAND, $APT, $FIL, $DOT, and $ATOM have all dropped more than 20% over 90 days — the trend is bad, it's not that their turn hasn't come, buying hard now is just catching a falling knife.
Three criteria must be met simultaneously: the 90-day structure is still intact, the 30-day hasn't caught up, and leverage isn't crowded. The cleanest case is $XLM: up 21% over 90 days, outperforming $BTC by a large margin, but only +8% over 30 days; it's still 34% below its 90-day high, offering the largest space among candidates; fees have been pinned at the 0.0100% benchmark for 6 consecutive periods, and no one is leveraging up to compete here.
Next picks are $OP and $INJ, but $INJ has already outperformed $BTC by 22 points over 7 days, and positions are increasing, so it's already been chased.
Honestly: $XLM's volume over the past 6 hours is only 0.8 times the median, the space is there but confirmation hasn't arrived. Only a volume surge above 0.22 will count as a start. #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？
I think this matter can be condensed into one sentence: The Treasury can hold the US debt market down for a while, but it cannot fix the US fiscal problems.
The US Treasury has decided to expand long-term bond buybacks, increasing the single buyback size of 10–30 year US bonds to at least $4 billion. Besant recently also mentioned that the buyback funds may come directly from the current approximately $940 billion TGA account, rather than issuing additional short-term debt financing.
The market's first reaction was indeed very clear. The 30-year US bond yield once surged to 5.337%, a high since 2007, but after the buyback news came out, it quickly dropped to about 5.19%. The US dollar also weakened, $BTC, gold, and US stocks all received a wave of liquidity sentiment stimulation, but the next day the 30-year yield returned to around 5.25%.
Because the real problem with long bonds is not "no one providing liquidity," but that investors are repricing several things:
Huge fiscal deficits, over $40 trillion in federal debt, sticky inflation, and the continuous issuance of new debt in the future.
So I would not interpret this as QE, nor would I think the Treasury can control long-term interest rates from now on. For BTC, the short term is quite comfortable: TGA spending, long bond yields falling, and the dollar weakening are essentially all improving financial conditions.
But the most worth watching in this macro trend is no longer how much the Treasury "buys," but whether the market is still willing to push the 30-year US bond yield back above 5% after the buybacks.Market Analysis! 80,000 Broken, Is a New High Still Far Away?
$BTC has successfully surpassed the 80,000 mark, reaching a high of 81,266. Spot ETFs continue to see large net inflows, institutional buying forms a base support, combined with concentrated short squeeze from previous short positions, driving this rapid rebound. However, after the surge, trading volume began to shrink, whales started taking profits in batches at high levels, open interest in contracts continues to rise, and the market has entered an extreme greed zone, with short-term selling pressure gradually increasing.
From the driving forces perspective, the macro interest rate cut expectations, ETF funds, and short squeeze are the three forces pushing the market. But short squeeze can only initiate the rise and cannot sustain the trend alone. Whether the market can challenge historical highs next depends mainly on whether ETF funds can continue to increase and whether the 80,000 level can hold effectively.
In the short term, 79,300 is the dividing line between strength and weakness; holding above it means the bullish structure continues; once broken, it will trigger a chain liquidation of long contracts and enter a deep retracement for digestion. $ETH remains noticeably weaker than BTC, with a significant gap in ETF inflow intensity. The altcoin sector is a rotation of existing capital, not a broad-based rally.
Summary: Breaking through 80,000 is only an intermediate step, not a direct start of a sprint to new highs. There will be intense volatility and shakeouts in between, so blindly chasing highs is not advisable. Focus on observing the sustainability of funds and the gain or loss of key support levels.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC Bitcoin breaks through $81,000! A 1,600-point surge in 15 minutes, “devaluation trade” reignites, $7.2 billion in shorts wiped out — August 25 Cryptocurrency Midday Report
Good afternoon, brothers, today’s market is truly explosive.
Bitcoin climbed 2.5% during the Asian session to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. Currently, BTC is around $80,950, up 4.54% in 24 hours. ETH stands above $2,527, and SOL breaks through $102.
In the past 7 days, Bitcoin has risen nearly 26% cumulatively.
⚡ What happened in 15 minutes?
From 2:15 to 2:30 AM (UTC) today, BTC surged from $79,818 to $81,075 within 15 minutes, a 1.57% increase.
Three driving factors: The U.S. imposed “economic D-Day” level sanctions on Iran, boosting geopolitical safe-haven demand for BTC; spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded the largest weekly net inflow since October; over $4 billion in short positions were liquidated, triggering a short squeeze.
📊 Core logic driving this rally
1. U.S. Treasury’s “mini QE” ignites devaluation trade
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced last week a doubling of the long-term Treasury buyback scale (single transaction cap raised from $2 billion to $4 billion). This lowered long-term U.S. bond yields and weakened the dollar, reigniting the “devaluation trade” narrative. Bitget Wallet research analysts noted a more favorable macro environment for crypto assets.
Gold strengthened simultaneously, spot gold rose over 1% to a nearly three-month high. Citi raised its three-month gold price target to $4,800/oz.
2. Institutional funds accelerate inflow, ETFs attract $1.92 billion in a single week
Last week, 13 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively netted $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. BlackRock clients bought $1.33 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single week, the largest weekly purchase since BTC’s historical high in October 2025. On August 20 alone, net inflows reached $606 million, a three-month high.
3. $7.2 billion in shorts wiped out
Coinglass data shows approximately $7.2 billion in leveraged short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week. In the past hour, $221 million in liquidations occurred network-wide, with shorts accounting for $217 million, over 98%. In the past 24 hours, 95,074 people were liquidated globally, with shorts accounting for $453 million.
Whales are bleeding too. One address held 559.4 BTC short positions (about $45.21 million) with 20x leverage, liquidation price at only $82,896 — less than 3% from the current price.
4. U.S.-Iran sanctions escalate, geopolitical safe-haven demand boosts BTC
On the 24th, the U.S. Treasury announced new “economic isolation” measures against Iran, expanding sanctions to five major sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology. About 60 Iranian-related entities, individuals, and vessels were added to the sanctions list.
Geopolitical risk rising + dollar weakening + devaluation trade, these three factors combined caused funds to exit risk assets and flow into gold and Bitcoin.
📉 But don’t ignore the risks
Some analysts point out this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen.
Technically, the 4-hour and daily RSI have entered overbought zones, and the daily MACD shows a death cross, a combination historically accompanied by 5%-10% corrections.
Key support is at $79,000, resistance at $81,269. If BTC breaks above $83,000 effectively, it may open the way to $90,000; if it falls below $79,000, mainstream CEX cumulative long liquidations could reach $198 million.
Bitget Research Institute notes BTC is likely to hold above $78,000 in the short term and consolidate around this area, with key support between $74,000-$76,000.
📌 Summary
Bitcoin returns above $80,000 after three months, with devaluation trade reignited, ETFs attracting $1.92 billion in a week, and $7.2 billion in shorts wiped out — three forces resonating to push prices up. However, technical indicators are in overbought territory, and the MACD death cross signal warrants caution. Short positions are being gradually cleared, but without genuine spot demand stepping in, the risk of a high-level pullback cannot be ignored. Short-term focus on $79,000 support and $81,269 resistance.
Brothers, did you catch this breakout above $80,000? Let’s discuss in the comments.👇#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $ETH $LAB down ~48% since Aug 1 ($0.153 → ~$0.08), genuine consolidation not exaggeration. $BEAT crashed from $6 highs under real unlock pressure — a $67.8M token release Aug 1 alone. Long/short ratios you're citing aren't independently checkable from here. The ZEC comparison is shaky though: its new highs came from a real ETF catalyst, not just "hard consolidation." Deep drawdowns don't all resolve the same way.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash Macro Forces Are Back in Control of Crypto
Crypto is once again moving closely with the broader macro picture.
The U.S. Treasury’s expanded long-term bond buybacks have improved liquidity expectations and helped push risk appetite higher. Bitcoin has recently climbed toward $81K, while Ethereum has also strengthened as investors rotate back into risk assets.
But the macro risks haven’t disappeared:1. BTC broke through $81,266, with ETFs continuing large net inflows. The US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $337.6 million yesterday, marking the highest weekly inflow in nearly 10 months, supported by institutional buying that underpinned the market base. After the surge, volume contracted, and high-level bullish and bearish divergences intensified, with 79,300 becoming the short-term strength and weakness dividing line. ETH surged simultaneously but showed weaker momentum; ETF inflows were only one-third of BTC’s, clearly reflecting a passive follow-up rally.
2. Whales collectively took profits at high levels and placed buy orders on pullbacks. Leading whales closed 600 BTC and tens of thousands of ETH long positions to realize profits, while placing large limit buy orders in the 72,000–75,800 range, adopting a strategy of cashing out on rallies and waiting for pullbacks to accumulate more, avoiding reckless chasing of highs. Some short positions are close to liquidation levels, raising the risk of two-way contract liquidations.
3. The market shows severe structural divergence, with accelerated rotation in altcoin sectors. The overall market hitting new highs is not a broad rally; funds are concentrated in MEME and the Solana ecosystem, with MEME tokens like WIF and MEW experiencing significant spikes; meanwhile, old hotspots, DeFi, and RWA-mapped tokens are seeing profit-taking and outflows, indicating internal reallocation of existing funds, with no large-scale inflow of new capital.
4. Contract market risks are heating up, with two-way liquidations beginning. The 24-hour total network liquidation volume is rising; previously dominated by short position liquidations, now short-term chasing of long positions is also being liquidated en masse. The open interest continues to rise, the greed index has entered an extreme greed zone, and leverage risks need to be closely monitored.
5. TradFi-mapped tokens are linked to external stock markets. Storage sector mapped contracts.We might think: what if I buy now and BTC drops back to 58,000? A 20% drop could lead to 30%, 40%... This is a common "fear of heights delusion" in right-side trading. Actually, right-side buying usually requires setting a stop-loss point in advance; this is determined comprehensively based on your technical indicators, actual position, and risk preference. For example, I personally use STH-RP as an important reference. From historical data, in the latter half of a bear market, as long as STH-RP is broken through, there is a high probability of a small trend emerging. Afterwards, if the price retests STH-RP without breaking it, the trend continues. If it breaks below, the trend ends. Currently, STH-RP is around $70,000 (dynamic). So if BTC drops back to 70k, caution is needed; if the daily level breaks below, stop-loss should be triggered. Therefore, theoretically, the stop-loss range for right-side positions is roughly around -10%, definitely not waiting until -25% or more to make a decision. Of course, if BTC fluctuates around STH-RP, we will be worn down back and forth — this depends on how you interpret it. In my view, wear and tear in trading is normal, even necessary. Because I don't want to miss a big trend just to avoid wear and tear. There is a question, I wonder if everyone has noticed:
1. The liquidation volume of $BTC is getting lower and lower, from over 1 billion unilaterally at the beginning of the year, to 600+ million in April-May, and now only 200-300 million.
2. Currently, mainstream exchanges' contract trading volume is dominated by US stocks, gold, silver, and crude oil.
3. We see that US stocks with high heat and volatility attract huge interest, and their large fluctuations bring more harvesting and liquidations.
So, have you noticed: during the crypto winter, exchanges have launched US stocks, gold, silver, and crude oil futures to attract more traffic, which further diverts the already limited liquidity in the crypto space.
For exchanges, this means more traffic and trading volume.
But for crypto, it means a reduction in capital, less attention and support amid more choices, leading to more boring oscillations and potentially more violent fluctuations.
This is why I believe this is not the bottom, because the support for $BTC here is too weak. Previously, people bottom-fished with just BTC and ETH as options, but now there are more US stocks, even Hong Kong stocks. Moreover, stocks have harvested more retail investors' funds.
So the support for $BTC is much weaker, and any manipulation or black swan event could cause a much more terrifying drop. 【 $BTC 2028-29 Bull Market Top Escape Countdown Series 01】
687 days after the end of the 2019 bear market bottom fishing to the first top escape red bar in 2021
678 days after the end of the 2023 bear market bottom fishing to the first top escape red bar in 2024
4 days and 2 hours have passed since the end of the 2026 bear market bottom fishing
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The indicators in the chart are bull market top escape & bear market bottom fishing models developed based on Bitcoin VDD, Median Price, and multiple sets of right-side indicators related to bear market bottoms📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Update (August 25)
The bulls monopolized control after the opening, with leverage ratios moderately recovering after an extreme crash. The total liquidation in 24 hours was only $98,500, a small scale, with a concentration of just 44.5%...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $199.82 $199.82 $0
4 hours $4,548.24 $4,548.24 $0
12 hours $43,800 $31,600 $12,200
24 hours $98,500 $82,000 $16,500
From 1 to 4 hours, bulls monopolized but the volume was under $5,000, considered invalid volume; at 12 hours, bulls took full control at 2.59x leverage, volume surged to $31,600; at 24 hours, bulls expanded to 4.97x leverage, liquidations were $82,000 for longs versus $16,500 for shorts, totaling $98,500. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for 44.5% of the 24-hour total, indicating moderate concentration. Bull leverage steadily increased from 2.59x to 4.97x, with short squeeze momentum mildly strengthening, but total volume under $100,000 indicates low liquidity and mild market conditions, limiting directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; this coin has poor liquidity and is not suitable as a primary trading reference.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 25
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin breaks through the $80,000 mark under a "devaluation trade" logic; the US shifts from military strikes to economic isolation against Iran; and the largest Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, pauses buying amid a surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Devaluation Trade Rekindled, Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. Previously, Bitcoin had consecutively broken through $70,000 and $75,000 levels, rising 23% over the past seven trading days, marking the largest weekly gain in about three years.
The core catalyst for this rally came from a macro shift. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond repurchases to suppress long-end yields, triggering a dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bridgewater's Ray Dalio stated that due to rising US government debt risks, investors should moderately increase allocations to non-government credit assets like Bitcoin and gold in their portfolios.
Institutional funds returned simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, skepticism remains. Some analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen.
🚢 US Launches Economic Isolation Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Blockades, Why Did Oil Prices Fall?
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, the US announced multiple new sanctions targeting Iran’s economy, expanding to five sectors including aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, sanctioning nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels.
Yellen said the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government," warning that any entity laundering money for Iran will be removed from the dollar system. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell instead of rising—Brent crude dropped 2.4% to $92.17/barrel, WTI crude fell 2.4% to $85.01/barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Raises $2 Billion to Boost Cash Reserves, BTC Allocation Pace Under Watch
The world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy (MSTR), filed with the SEC showing no Bitcoin purchases from August 17 to 23, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with a total cost of about $63.36 billion and an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company sold 18.2611 million common shares through an ATM program, netting about $2.0065 billion. As of August 23, the company’s USD cash reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion liquidity account labeled "USD Cash" available for future Bitcoin purchases.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin neared $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or holding at current prices will be a key market reference for Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to economic isolation against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news priced in"; Strategy pauses buying near $80,000, hoarding $6.7 billion cash, making its allocation pace intriguing. $LAB contract liquidations remain under $100,000 for the day, indicating low liquidity and mild market conditions, sharply contrasting with massive funds flowing into the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. Whether $80,000 can hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 BTC Breaks Through $80,000: Is It a Real Breakout or a Bull Trap? — Analyzing the Chip Game at the 80K Threshold from the Whales' Perspective
On August 25, 2026, Bitcoin once again surpassed the $80,000 mark after several months, reaching a high of $81,300 within 24 hours. On the surface, this appears to be a strong rebound driven by spot ETF institutional funds — last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, setting a record for the year, while perpetual contract funding rates remained at a mild 0.01%. However, a deeper look into on-chain data and chip structure reveals that 80K is not just a simple psychological round number but a chip dividing line over the past 110 trading days in the last six months. The current price is stuck between "touching" and "holding steady": whales have transferred about 7,700 BTC at high levels, the options market holds over $1.6 billion in 80K call options, and the Fear & Greed Index is approaching an extreme greed threshold of 76. This article dissects the real game logic at the 80K threshold from the whales' perspective, analyzing the interplay of ETF support, contract leverage, and macro policies, and provides key levels and response strategies under two scenarios. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC $ETH $SOL Don't just listen to what the big players say; watch what they actually do. Just as big player Wang Chun recently declared "the bull market is back," he has been continuously reducing his ETH holdings.
As of August 25, addresses related to Wang Chun have cumulatively sold about 23,378 ETH during this ETH rally, worth approximately $55.06 million.
In the last bull market, ETH underperformed like a sick chicken. Besides lacking innovation, a significant issue was that a large amount of early cheap tokens were concentrated in the hands of a few big players, resulting in persistent selling pressure. Properly dispersing tokens might actually be a good thing.#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
The past Strategy approach was very simple: issuance → use the funds to directly buy BTC, which was an important bullish signal in the market. However, in recent rounds of ATM issuance, the raised funds were not immediately directed towards Bitcoin; instead, they were prioritized to increase the USD cash pool, repurchase preferred shares, and cover rigid dividend expenses, while BTC holdings remained unchanged. This change deserves attention.
Core changes in this issuance
1. Large-scale cumulative fundraising through issuance, but without simultaneously increasing Bitcoin holdings, raising cash reserves to nearly $6.7 billion to establish a liquidity buffer pool. This money is not locked for a specific use; the official stance is that it can still be used opportunistically to buy coins in the future, just no longer "all in immediately upon raising funds."
2. Underlying real pressure: the annual rigid dividend payments on preferred shares are very high, so USD cash must be reserved as a safety net. Not all ammunition can be converted into BTC to avoid liquidity crises if the coin price plummets.
3. Shift in underlying logic: evolving from aggressive one-way coin hoarding to dynamic balance management of cash + BTC, no longer mindlessly buying regardless of price.
Two possible future scenarios
Scenario 1: After a pullback, buying coins resumes (more optimistic)
If BTC experiences a clear retracement and market sentiment cools, this large cash reserve will be released to enter the market and increase holdings. Large buy orders landing will provide solid support to the market, helping stabilize and rebound the price.
Scenario 2: Holding cash for a long time without buying coins (risk signal)
If the coin price continues to surge$BTC 81,000! Bears just got liquidated, and bulls are FOMOing again. Who will be the last to laugh this time?
We just discussed yesterday's "so close at 79,999.8" this morning, and today BTC directly broke through $81,000, reaching a high of $81,280. The cumulative increase over the past 7 trading days is about 26%, marking the largest weekly gain in nearly three years. $ETH also surpassed $2,500, and SOL returned above $100.
🚀 Four drivers: Why did it surge to 81,000?
First, the "devaluation trade" is fully fermenting. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced at least doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, lowering long-term yields and triggering dollar sell-offs. The market reignited the "devaluation trade" narrative—when the dollar weakens, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold become more attractive.
Second, ETF funds are flooding in wildly. Last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. had a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October last year. Asset management giant BlackRock's clients bought $1.33 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single week, the largest weekly purchase since the historical peak.
Third, the short squeeze continues. Last week, about $7.2 billion worth of leveraged short positions across the crypto market were liquidated. After 10 a.m. this morning, massive funds poured in, pushing BTC sharply past the $80,000 resistance.
Fourth, policy continues to send warm signals. Trump met with crypto industry leaders, urging the Senate to pass the "Clarity Act." The SEC also signaled regulatory easing.
🔮 What’s next?
In the short term—$83,000 is the next key battleground.
Bitget Research Institute’s chief analyst points out that BTC’s primary resistance is at $83,000; if effectively broken, it could further challenge $85,000–$90,000. If $83,000 is broken, the cumulative short liquidations on major CEXs will reach $455 million, potentially triggering a new round of short squeezes.
Key support lies in the $74,000–$76,000 range. If $80,000 fails to hold, a more realistic pullback target is $65,000–$69,000.
The biggest variable—the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office. Since 2022, BTC has experienced intense volatility during this meeting. A dovish tone → may continue to surge; a hawkish tone → may cause a sharp pullback. Be prepared for 10%–20% volatility.
What do institutions think?
The head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered believes that record short liquidations plus over $1 billion ETF inflows could create a self-reinforcing rally. However, some analysts warn that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand can sustain remains to be seen. The Fear & Greed Index has surged to 74, nearing "Extreme Greed"—historically, this level often signals short-term volatility intensification.
💎 Summary
81,000 is a three-month high. But the core contradiction remains: how much of this rally is "shorts forced to buy," and how much is "bulls actively buying?"
$7.2 billion in shorts have been liquidated, and the fuel for passive buying is diminishing. Whether the rally can continue depends on sustained ETF inflows, what Warsh says on Friday, and whether $83,000 can be effectively broken.
The risk-reward ratio for chasing highs is unfavorable. It might be better to wait for the Jackson Hole meeting outcome to see if $83,000 turns from resistance into support or is decisively rejected—then decide the direction.
---
The above content is only a market information summary and personal opinion sharing, not any investment advice. Trading involves risks; decisions should be made cautiously.#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
$BTC has surpassed the $80,000 mark again after 112 days, hitting a new stage high. Market bullish sentiment has fully warmed up, but a single breakthrough does not count as a solid hold. The $80,000 level remains a strong resistance zone, and subsequent consolidation and shakeout are inevitable.
The core logic behind this rally is very clear: rising expectations of macro easing, continuous large net inflows into spot ETFs, combined with a short squeeze triggered by concentrated short liquidations. Multiple positive factors resonate to push the market upward.
However, my personal clear view is: in the short term, it is difficult for the $80,000 level to hold steadily in one go. First, 80,000 is a long-term psychological resistance level, with a large amount of trapped positions and profit-taking concentrated previously, resulting in heavy selling pressure after the surge; second, this round of rapid and sharp rise has caused contract positions to heat up, the market is in an extremely greedy zone, and bullish momentum is already overextended, urgently needing a correction to digest floating chips.
Currently, the market is in a breakthrough testing phase, not a trend acceleration phase. A true hold requires continuous daily closes above $80,000 and sustained capital inflows; otherwise, it is highly likely to see a pullback after the surge and wide-range high-level oscillation.
The practical approach is very clear:
Do not chase highs! Heavy long positions at high levels have very low cost-effectiveness and are prone to catching a temporary top. Focus on contract opportunities during range pullbacks, buy on dips at key supports, and decisively reduce positions when rebounds face resistance. Short-term support is at 76,000–77,000; as long as this is not effectively broken, the bullish structure remains intact, and there are still chances for a second surge and a true hold above $80,000. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
$BTC has broken through 80,000, and tonight $NVDA Nvidia's earnings report is also coming.
Behind this round of BTC's surge is the U.S. Treasury's announcement to increase long-term Treasury buybacks, directly pushing down long-term yields. Once this signal came out, the market immediately interpreted it as a QE-like liquidity easing expectation. Arthur Hayes said this is the start of a new bull market cycle.
The logic behind $AXTI is actually very clear: it is the indium phosphide substrate supplier upstream in Nvidia's optical interconnect supply chain. Nvidia's Q2 earnings are expected to reach $92 billion, a year-on-year surge of 96%, with data center business expected to exceed $85.4 billion. Citi believes Nvidia has locked in all HBM supply for 2026 and 2027. As long as Nvidia continues to expand, AXTI's fundamentals are supported. Current orders on hand exceed $100 million, with production scheduled through 2027.
My AXTI grid entry was at 78, it rose to a high of 97 without selling, then pulled back to around 67 where I paused, with an unrealized loss of 51 USD. But I don't plan to exit—if Nvidia's earnings exceed expectations, the semiconductor equipment chain will likely recover.
Waiting for the results tonight. Hopefully, Nvidia can give AXTI a boost. Okx's prediction event this time is really bad, basically all taken over by the team, ordinary people simply can't play. Doesn't the person who released this project test for bugs? For example, in this F1 race, you can cheat points, transferring points from small accounts to big accounts, totaling over 1 million points in one day. The main rewards can also bypass facial recognition, and zombie accounts keep providing points. Only 70,000 people participated in total, but actually only about 10 to 20 thousand people, and 1/10 of them are from that team. You all better not play. @OKX中文 @佳佳OKX @佳佳的个人号 $BTC breaks through 81000
Three layers of drivers—Treasury doubling repurchase of long-term bonds ignites macro, $4 billion short squeeze boost, spot ETF weekly net inflow of $1.92 billion (largest in 10 months) shifts the market from "short covering" to "spot buying".
$ETH breaks through 2500
Macro beta + Treasury companies (Bitmine/Sharplink) buying + BTC/ETH ETFs total $2.6 billion net inflow. Holding above 2500 targets 2710-2800.
$OKB breaks through 110
Layer billion-dollar ecosystem fund + native USDC on-chain fermentation, 21 million deflationary tokens are solid, still halved from the previous high of 256 with room for recovery. 119.9-120 is the new ceiling. 📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Update (August 25)
Bulls controlled the market throughout, nearly balanced at 4 hours before regaining strength at 12 hours. The 24-hour multiplier moderately expanded to 4.65x, with total liquidations only $67,400, a relatively small scale...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $4,032.01 $3,123.01 $909.00
4 hours $6,205.70 $3,407.33 $2,798.37
12 hours $18,400 $13,400 $5,076.18
24 hours $67,400 $55,400 $11,900
In 1 hour, bulls tested control with a 3.44x multiplier, volume $3,100; at 4 hours, bull advantage sharply dropped to 1.22x, nearly balanced between longs and shorts; at 12 hours, bulls expanded to 2.64x, volume surged to $13,400; at 24 hours, it rose further to 4.65x, with $55,400 liquidated on longs versus $11,900 on shorts, totaling $67,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for only 27.3% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration, with bulls continuing to push in the latter half of the 24 hours. The bull multiplier steadily increased from 1.22x to 4.65x, showing steady short squeeze momentum recovery. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; the direction is bullish but total volume is small, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 25
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin breaks through the $80,000 mark under the "devaluation trade" logic; the U.S. shifts from military strikes to economic isolation against Iran; and the largest Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, pauses buying amid a surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Devaluation Trade Rekindled, Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. Previously, Bitcoin had consecutively broken through $70,000 and $75,000 levels, rising 23% over the past 7 trading days, marking the largest weekly gain in about three years.
The core catalyst for this rally comes from a macro shift. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term Treasury buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-offs and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bridgewater's Ray Dalio stated that due to rising U.S. government debt risks, investors should moderately increase allocations to non-government credit assets like Bitcoin and gold in their portfolios.
Institutional funds returned simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, skepticism remains. Some analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen.
🚢 U.S. Launches "Economic Isolation" Against Iran: Shift from Military Strikes to Financial Blockade, Why Did Oil Prices Fall?
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, the U.S. announced multiple new sanctions targeting Iran's economy, expanding to five sectors including aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, sanctioning nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels.
Yellen said the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government," warning that any entity laundering money for Iran will be removed from the dollar system. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell instead of rising—Brent crude dropped 2.4% to $92.17/barrel, WTI crude fell 2.4% to $85.01/barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Raises $2 Billion to Expand Cash Reserves, BTC Allocation Pace Under Watch
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy (MSTR), filed with the SEC showing no Bitcoin purchases from August 17 to 23, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with a total cost of about $63.36 billion, averaging around $75,385 per BTC.
During the same period, the company sold 18.2611 million common shares through an ATM program, netting about $2.0065 billion. As of August 23, the company held $5.1 billion in USD reserves and an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account for future Bitcoin purchases.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or holding steady at current prices will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin's short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze nature casts doubt on sustainability; the U.S. shifts from military strikes to economic isolation against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion in cash near $80,000, making allocation timing intriguing. KAITO contract bulls control with a 4.65x multiplier, total liquidation $67,400, concentration only 27.3%, direction bullish but volume small, indicating a moderate recovery. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can hold depends on whether spot buying can take over short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Is there much room left for $ETH to catch up? Here's the conclusion: it's not catching up; it is already leading.
Over 90 days, $BTC is up only +8%, while $ETH is up +23%, a 15 percentage point difference; over 30 days, +23% vs. +28%, and over 7 days, +24% vs. +30%. It's not lagging behind trying to catch up; it's ahead.
So the question is how much of this lead remains. The ETH/BTC ratio is currently 0.03107, within a 200-day range of 0.02578–0.03249, having reached the 79th percentile, with only 4.6% left to the top of the range. Converted, if $BTC stays flat, $ETH would be around 2,607.
But momentum readings tell a different story: $BTC RSI at 75 is already overheated, while $ETH RSI at 68 is not yet there; relative to their respective 180-day highs, $ETH is 2.1% below, $BTC is 3.2% below.
My view: relative room left is only 4.6%, but the absolute position is healthier than $BTC. The watershed is whether the ratio can hold above 0.03249. $ETH funds have flowed into staking pools for 11 consecutive weeks, compressing the liquidity of spot market chips, but this accumulation has not yet translated into absolute defensive strength for spot prices.
Last week, $ETH staking net inflow was $754.9 million, with an 11-week cumulative increase reaching 7.8% of the total staked amount, directly reducing the potential selling pressure supply on exchanges. In contrast, SOL saw a $200.3 million outflow, and staking scales for HYPE and ADA shrank simultaneously, indicating that funds are withdrawing from highly elastic public chain staked assets and concentrating back into mainstream pegged targets.
The core driver behind this liquidity differentiation is the capital preference returning to low-risk block rewards. During derivatives market deleveraging, capital tends to shed speculative positions in competitive public chains and instead lock in underlying assets with certain block rewards.
The bullish scenario depends on the rhythm matching between spot accumulation and derivatives deleveraging. When the 7.8% increase in locked positions continues to freeze market liquidity and derivatives liquidation pressure is fully released, even slight net spot buy orders can push prices to break upward.
The failure signal for this bullish projection is if spot trading volume fails to follow through during the breakout or if weekly staking net inflow falls below $100 million, at which point the market will shift to disorderly range-bound oscillation.
The bearish scenario is triggered by a liquidity black hole caused by network-wide leverage liquidations. Even with $754.9 million in single-week locked support on the spot side, if high-level leverage faces forced liquidation, the selling pressure generated by the derivatives market will still penetrate the defense established by spot locked positions.
If staking funds on competitive public chains stop outflows and re-attract risk appetite capital, the transmission efficiency of this bearish scenario will be greatly weakened.
Staking lock-up changes the medium- to long-term supply curve and cannot directly offset the liquidity shocks from derivatives in extreme market conditions.
In the next 7 days, key observations include whether $ETH weekly staking net inflow can maintain above $500 million, as well as changes in exchange spot depth and derivatives open interest.
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？Okx's prediction event this time is really bad; it's basically monopolized by the team, and ordinary people simply can't participate. Doesn't the person who launched this project test for bugs? For example, in this F1 race, points can be farmed—points from small accounts are transferred to big accounts, totaling over 1 million points in one day. The main rewards can also bypass facial recognition, and zombie accounts keep providing points. Only 70,000 people participated in total, but in reality, there are only about 10,000 to 20,000 people, and 1/10 of them are from that team. You all better not play.The story of $RAVE, MEME making money from emotions (August 25, 10:32)
I have experienced the frenzy of MEME coins. $RAVE once had a violent pulse in a short time, with a maximum intraday increase close to 70%. At that time, the community was all hyping it, and the heat instantly surged to the top of trending searches.
I took a small position and laid low, with a maximum paper profit close to 40%. Seeing the whole network crazily bullish and noticing a whale address continuously selling near 0.31 on-chain, I chose to take full profit and exit. Within two days, the price fell back to 0.278, and many chasing buyers were trapped at high levels.
MEME has no fundamental support; it is entirely driven by emotion and hype. High 24-hour trading volume does not mean it can keep rising; often it is just a false signal created by large holders selling.
When playing MEME, always remind yourself: you are making money from emotions, not from belief in value. The peak of hype is often the peak of risk.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $BTC $ETH The 4 a.m. settlement map hides a quiet harvest. Have you ever wondered what the truly smart money is watching while most people are staring at the candlestick? Last night, I spent the night reviewing BCH contract data and discovered a particularly interesting detail. The liquidation report shows that the total liquidation volume in the past 24 hours has just surpassed $1 million. At first glance, it seems calm, but when you break it down, it's a whole different story. Within 12 hours, bulls were liquidated by $550,000, short positions by $260,000, with bulls crushing bears by more than double. By the 24-hour window, long liquidations expanded to $730,000, while short positions only reached $270,000, a ratio of 2.73 times. In other words, almost all of this harvesting was concentrated within the 12-hour window, accounting for over 80% of the total liquidation volume for the day. The latter half was basically about cleaning up the mess. What does this data indicate? The market completed a directed, concentrated long short squeeze in a short period. This rhythm does not appear to be natural fluctuations; it is more like funds precisely pushing the price, causing leveraged positions to be cleared within a specific range. Once the liquidation is complete, the price actually stabilizes, because the positions that should have been exploded have all been liquidated, naturally reducing selling pressure. Following this line of thought and looking further into the larger cycle, BTC repeatedly tested the $80,000 mark, reaching a high of $79,555 on Friday before pulling back to the $76,000 range to fluctuate. Ethereum is even stronger, surging from around $2,300 to above $2,500 in one week, with a weekly gain of 26% to 34%, ranking first at $2,500If the upcoming bull market really begins, I have a few thoughts:
1. Only buy leading coins, and only in trending sectors. Forget about blockchain games or storage. Last time, I was tricked by YGG and FIL. This time, I'm focusing on platform coins and DeFi sectors. Brands like $BNB and $AAVE that surged strongly in the early bull market will be very strong throughout the entire bull market. Don't be afraid of high prices and don't hesitate to buy; bull markets are meant to break new highs.
2. Don't FOMO when prices rise, don't FOD when prices fall. In bull markets, there are lots of sharp rises and falls. Don't be afraid to be short now—there will definitely be a chance to pull back. Bulls won't make money blindly when prices go so smoothly. Don't chase highs when prices rise, but dare to buy when prices fall. No one can perfectly buy at the bottom or sell at the top.
3. A bull market rewards those who blindly go long. It seems easy, but it's actually very difficult. When you're on the market and start to fall, you often think the trend reversal is over, afraid of getting stuck. But once you sell, the price keeps hitting new highs.
4. The keyword for this round will definitely be on-chain finance, because the U.S. is introducing cryptocurrencies into the U.S. financial system. So the focus is on assets related to BTC, $ETH, HYPE, stablecoins, and RWAs. So back to the first point, stop looking at other junk sectors. There might be a few aggressive traders coming to harvest them. Rather than searching for treasure in the garbage heap, it's better to seek opportunities with higher certainty.
5. This round of ETH/BTC gains could be quite exaggerated, with Ethereum significantly outperforming Bitcoin.Looking at the notes I left behind, more than a month has quietly passed. What was the crypto world like a month ago? To put it bluntly, it was so quiet that people wondered if the bull market was gone. There was almost no crypto info in my social circle; the occasional ones I saw were $SNDK and $MU US stocks that were still a bit more active, screenshots of making money. The most popular phrase in the market back then wasn't "When will it rise?" It was "there's still one last drop." It was precisely this phrase that left many people stuck on the sidelines. $BTC When it was around $60,000, many people didn't want to buy—they just didn't dare to, always thinking about waiting: could it drop to over $50,000? Was it just one last panic remain? But after waiting and waiting, BTC retouched above $80,000, hitting a new three-month high. Here's a correction: $80,000 isn't BTC's all-time high. What's truly worth watching is how it has completed a very strong recovery from its previous slump. What's even more obvious is that the market is no longer just about BTC. ETH and SOL started to catch up, OKB once reached $120, and many altcoins have become active again. A month ago, no one wanted to talk about cryptocurrency, and now people are asking "Is there still a chance?" Market sentiment has switched at its quietest moment. Why is this rally so fast? I think "short squeezes are indeed one of the important reasons, but you can't attribute all the rally to short squeezes. There were too many bearish people in the market earlier, and short positions were too crowded. Once BTC broke through the barrier,$ETH is bearish in the short term, while $OKB leans bullish, and $ZEC is pulling back from highs: Has capital started to split?
$ETH faces short-term pressure, $OKB is relatively favored, and $ZEC is facing profit-taking at high levels. This is likely not just a coincidence but more like capital searching for new directions, driven by their respective fundamentals.
🔍 Divergent performance among coins
· $ETH: There is indeed short-term correction pressure. Although mid-to-long term outlook is positive due to $ETF inflows (net weekly inflow of $697 million) and ecosystem recovery, the price just experienced a surge of over 7%, daily RSI entered the overbought zone (around 80), and it faces strong resistance at $2500-$2550. Additionally, uncertainty before major macro events (Jackson Hole Symposium, Nvidia earnings) increases correction risk.
· $OKB: Technically relatively resilient. While most coins follow the broader market fluctuations, $OKB shows positive technical signals: price rebounded from key Fibonacci support (around $90.71), and the A/D line indicates increasing buying pressure, suggesting a bottoming pattern.
· $ZEC: $ETF benefits have been realized, short-term "buy the rumor, sell the news". $ZEC recently surged violently from $500 to $850, a huge gain. With the Grayscale Zcash $ETF launching on August 25, short-term funds are taking profits. Currently consolidating at high levels, with extremely high futures open interest (around $1.5-$1.8 billion). Failure to hold $800 support could trigger a chain reaction.
💡 How to view the current divergence?
This looks more like a normal "going separate ways" after a broad rally.
1. Signs of capital rotation: Recently, XRP's popularity in the Korean market has surpassed $BTC and $ETH, indicating some speculative funds are indeed seeking new directions. Meanwhile, $ETH funds are also flowing into $BTC, but no unified momentum has formed yet.
2. Event-driven moves: $ZEC's sharp rise and fall is mainly driven by $ETF expectations. This "buy the rumor, sell the fact" dynamic makes its movement more independent than $ETH.
📌 Operational notes to watch
· Beware of market pullbacks: Both $BTC and $ETH are short-term overbought. Historically, MACD death cross plus RSI overbought often accompanies 5%-10% corrections. If the market is unstable, any isolated rallies may be dragged down.
· Focus on key variables: The Fed's stance at this week's Jackson Hole Symposium is crucial in determining the short-term direction of risk assets, including the crypto market. Looking back at history, many crypto exchanges didn't collapse during the bear market but rather at the start of the bull market after the bear market ended. To cover their losses or survive, they sold off assets at the bear market bottom and misappropriated funds.
Then, when the bull market recovered and asset prices rose again, they lacked the funds to buy back the assets they had sold at the low point. Ultimately, they couldn't withstand the run on funds or competitors who invested more budget to capture the market.Multiple attempts at BTC surging to 80,000, I have learned to respect false breakouts (August 25)
In the past few days, BTC has repeatedly tested 79,800, just one step away from the 80,000 mark. During the previous surge, I subjectively judged "a long attack will break through," and chased long positions at 79,400, expecting a direct breakout to new highs.
The result was a long upper shadow wick followed by a drop, directly falling back to 77,600. Reviewing contract data, the total open interest across the network continued to rise, bullish options accounted for nearly 60%, sentiment was extremely greedy, and the rise was mostly due to short squeeze; incremental spot funds did not keep up.
77,600 is the key defensive support; holding it is necessary for a second attack opportunity. After being taught by false breakouts, I no longer subjectively predict breakouts. A real breakout requires confirmation by volume and a solid candlestick, not just rushing in when near resistance.
The market will not move according to everyone's expectations; trading requires respecting market signals, not personal wishes.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $BTC $ETH $BTC surged to 80,000, but open interest in contracts dropped to a two-month low.
Price and positions are moving in opposite directions—how should this be interpreted?
---
One interpretation is that this rally hasn't involved much leverage buildup.
Price is rising, but OI is falling, indicating that many shorts have been cleared out, and the longs chasing the rally haven't rushed to increase their positions.
Compared to a scenario where "leverage thickens as the price rises," this structure seems lighter, at least in the short term, reducing the risk of a squeeze.
---$SNDK
But there's another side:
The previous sharp rally was largely driven by forced buying from short liquidations.
Once the short squeeze momentum fades, it depends on whether spot and ETFs can pick up the slack. If new capital inflows don't keep pace, the pace might slow down.
---$ETH
So the key point going forward is:
When OI starts to rise again, can the price follow?
· If it can keep up → it means there is capital willing to take positions at this level
· If it can't → watch out for new leverage building up but insufficient buying power
---#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Liquidation Watch! Liquidation Volume Data Analysis (August 25, 12:30)
After BTC broke through 81266, the total liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours was about $428 million, with short position liquidations accounting for over half at $231 million, mainly driven by the recent upward short squeeze rally. During BTC's surge, a large number of high-level short positions were swept out, but as the price retraced, short-term long positions chasing the rally also began to liquidate in bulk, indicating that two-way liquidations have started.
ETH surged to 2533 before pulling back, with 24-hour liquidation amounts second only to BTC. During the surge, short positions were cleared, and after a 15-minute level pullback, a large number of short-term long positions were liquidated, reflecting ETH's passive follow-up in the rally and relatively weak stability of long holdings.
Altcoin sector shows clear divergence. Hot MEME tokens like TRUMP and HYPE experienced intense two-way liquidations with sharp spikes up and down to harvest traders; LAB and BEAT had low trading volumes and small liquidation scales, indicating insufficient capital attention.
Summary: Earlier, the market mainly focused on short squeezes, but now two-way liquidations are intensifying, representing rapidly expanding market divergence. High-level two-way liquidations are a risk signal; going forward, be cautious of a concentrated long position stampede. It is essential to reduce leverage and closely monitor BTC's 79300 support level.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ Stablecoins are shifting their focus from trading liquidity to real-world payment infrastructure. In July alone, cryptocurrency card payments hit an all-time high, with a significant portion of these funds flowing into everyday consumption rather than trading, which may be the key change. The total amount of cryptocurrency card payments in July reached $1.04 billion, more than tripling compared to the same period last year. The tracked number of transactions exceeded 10 million, with about 70% paid using stablecoins. Looking at the payment method breakdown, USDC accounted for 50.8%, and USDT for 20.3%. What is noteworthy is the usage. Everyday expenses such as groceries, food delivery, and transportation are increasingly being paid through cryptocurrency cards. The implication of this data for the market is not just an increase in transaction volume. For years, stablecoins have been perceived as a medium for trading liquidity within exchanges, moving spot and derivative positions. However, now their role outside exchanges as payment rails in the real economy is growing. This reflects the market's evolving evaluation of stablecoins Leverage Alert! Open Interest Data Analysis (August 25, 12:26)
The total open interest across the network has risen again. After BTC broke through the 80,000 mark, contract positions quickly accumulated, significantly widening the long-short divergence. BTC open interest continues to rise, with long and short positions nearly evenly split. After a large number of short positions were liquidated earlier, new short orders have been placed again above 81,000. Funding rates remain positive, meaning longs must continuously pay interest, and short-term long positions are starting to become crowded.
ETH open interest is also rising but with a smaller position size compared to BTC. After surging to 2,533, there was a pullback on the 15-minute chart, with many short-term long positions reducing their holdings. Open interest slightly declined, indicating weak long confidence and a passive follow-up buying rather than strong independent long intent.
Altcoins are showing significant divergence. SOL and HYPE open interest remain high, while MEME-type $TRUMP contracts are being liquidated back and forth. Pin spikes easily trigger bidirectional liquidations, amplifying contract risks for small-cap coins.
Summary: The rise in total open interest indicates market leverage is returning but does not imply a sustained one-sided rally. High open interest at elevated levels increases the probability of a two-way shakeout, which can either continue to squeeze shorts upward or cause concentrated long liquidations. At this stage, it is essential to reduce leverage and closely monitor BTC support at 79,300. A break of this support could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $BTC $ETH #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ On August 24, two senior officials from the Ministry of Finance hinted at considering using the TGA to finance long-term bond buybacks. The TGA balance is about 950 billion, but due to minimum reserve requirements, Morgan Stanley estimates the actual usable amount is only 80-200 billion, with the exact amount undisclosed. Previously, BofA raised the single transaction limit for 10-20 year and 20-30 year Treasury buybacks from 2 billion to at least 4 billion, effective September 9, dubbed the "Ministry of Finance version of twist operation."
Using TGA cash to directly buy long-term bonds avoids issuing more short-term debt, causing limited net impact on reserves, seemingly "cleaner" than issuing short-term debt to buy long-term bonds. Upon the news, the 10-year yield fell by 4 basis points, gold rose above 4670, and Bitcoin broke through $80,000, all strengthening simultaneously. But Wall Street poured cold water: Deutsche Bank said the impact was "basically zero," and Goldman Sachs bluntly stated it does not solve the root cause of long-end volatility.
In fact, the rebound after the initial announcement on August 19 lasted less than 24 hours. Barclays estimates the expansion is equivalent to an additional quarterly purchase of about 16 billion, which accounts for only 0.05% of the 32.3 trillion publicly held US debt.
The root cause is the massive debt supply caused by the fiscal deficit, not poor liquidity of old bonds. Using cash to buy bonds is a demand-side hedge and does not address supply-side contradictions. The TGA is originally an emergency buffer; using it to support the market consumes the safety cushion, and once the market sees through this, it actually strengthens the fiscal risk premium.
Effective in the short term, but a cure? Far from it. The real solution is either fiscal consolidation or Federal Reserve intervention; the former is politically impossible, and the latter is currently on hold. $BTC #US Launches Economic Isolation of Iran, Why Did Oil Prices Fall Back?
The boss has something to say
The US has initiated formal economic isolation measures against Iran, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping under secondary sanctions. Bassett declared that the enforcement will be zero-leakage, and relevant countries must shut down identified activities according to the timetable. The Iranian rial immediately dropped to a new unofficial market low of 2,039,000 per 1 USD.
But oil prices did not rise.
Brent is still hovering around $82, much weaker compared to over $90 during the previous Hormuz tensions. There are three reasons.
First, the sanctions being implemented means the positive effects have been fully priced in. The market started pricing in Hormuz risks since July, and expectations were already maxed out. When the boot actually drops, there is no incremental information to push prices higher.
Second, the market is assessing enforcement capability. Zero-leakage sounds tough, but whether Iranian oil exports can truly be blocked depends on the cooperation of third countries. Past rounds of sanctions have proven that a complete shutdown is very difficult.
Third, the diesel crack spread has fallen back from a historic high of $102, and refining margins are narrowing, indicating that tightness on the refined oil side is also easing temporarily.
The impact on crypto is complex in the short term. It’s no secret that Iran uses digital assets to bypass sanctions; the escalation means demand for stablecoins like USDT in the gray area will rise, which is supportive. But tightening US dollar liquidity and declining risk appetite are suppressive. $BTC $ETH $SOL
BTC breaking above 80,000 is meaningful in itself. But at this level, chasing higher in the short term is not cost-effective. Wait for a pullback confirmation.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.