Orbit Post Sitemap
1. Quarterly Sequential Performance
• Q2 2026 revenue was $34.45 million, representing a sequential increase of approximately 4.97% compared to Q1's $32.82 million, achieving a slight and steady expansion in revenue scale.
• The cumulative revenue for the first half of the year reached $67.27 million, already surpassing the total token sales-related revenue scale for the entire year at the project launch stage in 2024.
2. Short-term Growth Momentum
• Monthly revenue for the past 30 days was $10.47 million; based on this monthly scale, the annualized revenue could reach $127 million, more than doubling the cumulative revenue for the first half of the year.
• This growth is mainly attributed to the continuous expansion of the circulation of the stablecoin USD1. As of August 2026, the total circulating market value of USD1 has exceeded $4.2 billion, with on-chain fees and minting revenue becoming the core income sources.
II. Breakdown of Core Business Financial Contributions
• Stablecoin USD1 business: contributes about 62% of platform revenue, mainly from minting fees and interest income from reserve assets (U.S. Treasury bonds).
• WLFI token-related business: contributes about 28% of revenue, derived from token transaction fees and locked staking yields. After the token unlock ratio increases in September 2026, this portion of revenue is expected to further rise.
• DeFi lending business: contributes the remaining 10% of revenue, coming from the interest rate spread within the platform's lending. Currently, the total value locked (TVL) in this business has exceeded $1.8 billion. BTC leads, altcoins follow — this pattern has become clear again. Amid apparent bullishness, the key variable now is where the actual funds are flowing. Bitcoin confirmed renewed upward momentum approaching $80,000, while Ethereum is oscillating between support and resistance around $2,500. However, the problem lies in the altcoin segment. Major tokens like LAB, BEAT, H, and KAITO have failed to show clear direction, revealing that this rally’s capital flow is limited to specific asset groups. Approximately $2.6 billion flowed into US spot BTC and ETH ETFs this week. This figure indicates that institutional funds remain concentrated on market-leading assets. Importantly, this capital is characterized more by stable allocation than by risk appetite expansion. ETF inflows combine passive funds with real demand, differing in nature from the short-term speculative capital driving the altcoin rally. When classifying the current market structure based on capital behavior, three layers emerge. - Real demand: BTC BTC Ecosystem Leaderboard Competition
The biggest main theme of this bull market round is definitely BTCFi, but many people confuse the real hierarchy of STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY, leading to chaotic buying rhythms and inability to hold onto major bull stocks.
BTCFi will not be dominated by a single player but will have a layered segmented market, with four categories corresponding to four types of capital logic and four different growth ceilings.
First Tier: CORE (Absolute Comprehensive Leader)
CORE is not a Bitcoin L2; it is an independent Bitcoin hashrate L1 public chain, which is its biggest differentiating advantage.
Relying on Bitcoin hashrate as a security foundation and fully EVM compatible, it is the only one among the four kings that has completed a business closed loop and entered the revenue era.
By 2026, with lstBTC institutional staking, SatPay cross-border payments, and on-chain fees continuously generating real cash flow, there is an expectation of buybacks in the future. The principal assets are locked on the BTC mainnet, and the security model is institutionally recognized.
It is the most fundamentally strong, narratively solid, practically implemented, and capital-capacity-rich all-around leader in this BTCFi round, with the highest certainty for the main upward wave.
Second Tier: BABY (Highest Long-term Odds Dark Horse)
BABY follows the top-tier underlying security route, not doing DeFi or applications, only Bitcoin security leasing.
BTC remains entirely in native addresses, with no custody, no cross-chain, and zero-risk staking, making it currently the most trusted BTCFi model. Top-tier capital is heavily invested, and the track is exclusive with no competitors.
The downside is slow breakout and more of an underlying infrastructure, better suited for long-term positions over a year or more, with a value re-evaluation expected in the mid to late stages of this bull market.
Third Tier: STX (Stable Defensive Type)
STX is a veteran Bitcoin native L2, focusing on BTC-denominated yields, with stable institutional recognition.
But the fatal flaw is non-EVM compatibility, limiting developer ecosystem expansion and making it difficult to attract massive new capital.
It is suitable for stable allocation and capturing cycle dividends but unlikely to experience a super main upward wave, with its growth ceiling locked.
Fourth Tier: MERL (Pure Cyclical Elastic Asset)
Merlin's ZK technology is sound, but assets rely on MPC custody, posing counterparty risk, naturally rejected by large institutional funds.
Its market performance is entirely tied to inscription popularity, with explosive bull market gains and severe bear market drops, a typical swing sentiment asset without independent long-term growth logic.
Final Summary
To capture the main rise and fundamental resonance this round: heavy position in CORE
For extreme safety and long-term bottom accumulation: allocate BABY
For stable value preservation and low volatility holding: choose STX
For short-term speculative opportunities and inscription elasticity: small position in MERL
Core to making money in a bull market: choosing the right track hierarchy is ten times more important than frequent coin swapping. #COREBiden steps in to "rescue" U.S. debt, resulting in $BTC soaring over 25% in a week — this might be the most ironic financial narrative of 2026.
The Treasury doubled the long-term bond buyback cap from $2 billion to $4 billion, nominally to "support liquidity," but in reality, it's a disguised yield curve control. What happened? The 30-year yield briefly dropped then quickly rebounded, but the real takeoff was in the crypto market.
First, $BTC became the core beneficiary of the "hard asset" narrative. Galaxy Digital analysts bluntly stated that this rally is essentially a "hard asset story" — gold, silver, and Bitcoin all rising, while the Nasdaq basically remained flat. The dollar index fell below its 200-day moving average, hitting a three-month low, as funds accelerated out of sovereign credit assets into non-sovereign stores of value.
Second, the "currency devaluation trade" logic strengthened. Bank of America characterized this move as "quasi-quantitative easing." Although the Treasury cannot print money out of thin air, by swapping short-term debt for long-term debt through "debt replacement," it is effectively injecting liquidity into the market.
Third, stablecoins are becoming a key piece in Biden's chess game. Biden has repeatedly mentioned that the stablecoin market size is expected to grow to nearly $4 trillion, becoming the "core buyer" of short-term Treasury bills. This means cryptocurrencies are no longer passive beneficiaries but an important piece on the demand side of U.S. debt.
When the Treasury itself draws a "target" on the yield curve, the market will only more aggressively test the resilience of this defense — and $BTC is becoming the sharpest arrow in this game. $xSPCX 135.00, -1.44%. Precisely back to the IPO issue price.
Listed at 135 on June 12, back to square one two months later. This roller coaster ride: opened at 150 → surged to 226 in 4 days → hit 145 due to Colossus 2 lawsuit → early August earnings report showed a net loss of 8.9 billion, breaking through the issue price down to 104.83 → rebounded to 137 → today back to 135 again.
Now at 135, market cap is 1.83 trillion. Bulls and bears are arguing even more fiercely:
Bulls say: Starlink has broken 10 million subscribers, adding 2-3 million each quarter; launch business holds 90% global market share; Starship H2 reaching orbit is the turning point; 35 analysts have a target price of 213, 58% upside. 135 is the IPO price, Musk himself wouldn’t sell at this price.
Bears say: annual loss of 8.9 billion, forward PE of 104, all narrative-driven. Anthropic contract lawsuit is ongoing, Starship progress repeatedly delayed. Breaking below 104 is just a matter of time.
My view: 135 is a symbolic level, the IPO price is a psychological anchor; breaking it would mean the narrative of "peak at IPO"; holding it means "value return." After-hours today at 135.03, almost flat open, both sides are waiting for a catalyst. The next Starship test flight is a key variable.
SPCX is not a short-term stock. If you believe in Starship, slowly accumulate at 135; if not, don’t touch it. There is no middle ground.NVIDIA server price increase, the harshest point is putting AI costs on the table
In the past, when people talked about AI, they liked to discuss models, users, agents, and application explosions. But when it comes to actually paying, the bill coldly falls on servers, HBM, power supply, data centers, and depreciation
If AI server prices continue to rise, cloud providers and startups will be forced to recalculate: for the same training and the same inference service, can costs still be reduced? Are customers willing to pay more for AI features?
NVIDIA has pricing power, which is certainly impressive, but the price increase will also force downstream players to find alternatives faster. The contradiction in the AI industry chain is shifting from "who can get the cards" to "who can bear the bill"
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
Why the big pull-up?
The Treasury is loosening restrictions.
Shorts are being crushed. Shorts have been adding positions on ETH even more aggressively than on Bitcoin, and with one piece of news, over $1 billion worth of short positions were wiped out in one go.
ETF inflows continue. Last week, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $697 million, the highest since 2026. On August 20 alone, there was a net inflow of $220 million, breaking the record for the past 203 trading days. Yesterday, there was another net inflow of $116 million, marking six consecutive days of net inflows, with institutions continuously buying.
There is also a signal many overlook—BitMine is still aggressively accumulating.
Here’s my take.
This ETH rally is driven by a macro policy shift, short covering, and continuous ETF inflows—a triple resonance. It gained 30% in a week; short-term overbought conditions are real, so some consolidation to digest profits is normal. Institutions like BitMine use "buy + staking" to lock up tokens, effectively reducing supply. The fewer ETH available for trading, the faster the price can bounce.
The direction is right, but don’t get too carried away with the pace. The $2500 level won’t be broken in one go; waiting for a pullback confirmation before acting is better than chasing highs.
$ETH $BTC Publicly Listed Company Buys $DOGE, Cuts Losses and Exits, Then Turns to AI Infrastructure: Right or Wrong?
1. What Exactly Did CleanCore Do?
The US-listed company CleanCore Solutions (ZONE) launched a DOGE treasury strategy in September last year and was once dubbed the "Dogecoin version of MicroStrategy."
But in March this year, the company began to exit. By July 20, CleanCore sold the remaining approximately 463 million DOGE, recovering about $33.4 million, basically ending its DOGE treasury business.
Based on these numbers, the average selling price of this batch of DOGE was only about $0.072. Now DOGE has returned to around $0.09, so looking solely at the selling timing, it indeed sold before the recent rebound.
2. How Obvious Was the Loss on This DOGE Investment?
On March 31, the company disclosed that the book cost of this batch of approximately 463 million DOGE was about $110.5 million, while the fair value at that time was only about $42.74 million, resulting in an unrealized loss of about $67.77 million.
So calling this exit a "cutting losses" is not an exaggeration.
However, the exact realized loss after the final clearance will depend on subsequent official financial reports.
3. Why the Shift to AI?
CleanCore has now shifted from the DOGE treasury to AI infrastructure and data centers.
The company is advancing a 200MW data center project in West Texas, while also planning about 55MW projects in Minnesota, and collaborating with CereHow to view the US economic isolation of Iran, the drop in oil prices, and BTC's counter-trend rise?
The US has launched secondary sanctions against Iran, including digital assets, gold, and shipping in the sanctions, claiming zero leakage enforcement, causing the Iranian currency to plummet. However, the market shows an abnormal trend: crude oil falls while Bitcoin rises against the trend.
According to common sense, sanctions on an oil-producing country should push oil prices up, but the current decline centers on two points:
1. Buying on expectations and selling on facts, risks were speculated in advance, and bulls took profits after the news was confirmed; the sanctions have a buffer period and do not directly cut off crude oil exports.
2. The market doubts the enforcement of sanctions and looks at the cooperation level of third-party countries. Only if Iran's crude oil exports are truly cut will oil prices have the momentum to rise again.
A major highlight this time: digital assets are officially included in the sanctions list.
Iran has long used cryptocurrencies to bypass US dollar settlements. Now institutions helping Iran circulate digital assets will also be sanctioned.
Two forces are competing in BTC:
✅ Safe-haven funds treat BTC as a non-sovereign asset, with geopolitical turmoil bringing buying pressure;
❌ US intensifies crypto sanctions + tightening US dollar liquidity creates suppression.
Currently, safe-haven demand dominates, but the market is not one-sided; future trends still depend on liquidity changes.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC $ETH $SOL $SNDK mentioned last night that the 1415-1400 support can hold and the price will rise back.
Just hold on.
Short-term resistance ahead is around 1579 (shouldn't be a big problem, but it's best to reduce positions and hold), if it can stabilize above that, then watch if it can break through 1630. If it breaks through and holds, it will go further.
News and Market Sentiment
Negative Factors
1. Continuous capital outflow from the sector, deleveraging is evident.
According to TradingBeats monitoring, the total open interest of the three storage giants (SKHX, SNDK, MU) on Hyperliquid has dropped from about $999 million to $677 million, a decrease of 32.2%. Among them, SNDK's open interest fell from about $196 million to $157 million, a 19.5% decrease, with the number of positions shrinking significantly by 47.2%. On-chain data currently looks more like a "deleverage rebound" rather than a trend reversal. Over the past 7 days, SNDK's long effective leverage dropped from 5.8x to 3.4x, and shorts from 6.7x to 5.9x.
2. The storage sector is under overall pressure.
In the past 7 days, SNDK fell from $1726.2 to $1526.1, a drop of about 11.6%, while SKHX rose by 3.3% during the same period. There is a clear divergence within the storage sector, with SNDK relatively weak.
3. Recent large declines.
SNDK has significantly retreated from the recent high near 2350, dropping about 9% on August 18 alone, and another 6.45% yesterday. It is currently trading around $1,493, down about 6.5%.
Potential Support Factors
· SNDK is essentially a tokenized version of SanDisk stock, supporting 1:1 conversion, providing some fundamental anchoring.
· The mid-to-long-term logic for AI data center storage demand and infrastructure spending remains.
· Previously, a whale established a $4.78 million long position on Hyperliquid.
The above are personal views for reference only.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？ 📌 U.S. State Department plans large-scale return to Middle Eastern embassies. According to internal documents obtained by The New York Times, the U.S. plans to have diplomats return to multiple Middle Eastern embassies previously evacuated due to the Iran war, involving eight key sites including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, and Kuwait. Three U.S. officials confirmed the adjustments. Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Shapiro commented: "Restocking some of the evacuated diplomatic missions shows the government believes the war is nearing its end." Although negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over the 60-day ceasefire extension have stalled, the diplomatic return itself constitutes a substantive gesture—Washington has already judged that "full-scale hostilities will no longer break out." 📊 Short-term impact on the crypto market: (1) Geopolitical risk premium partially fades, sentiment is warm. The return of diplomats is a strong signal of "conflict de-escalation." Previously, during tense Middle East tensions, cryptocurrencies were often seen as high-beta risk assets falling first. Now, although the ceasefire is deadlocked, expectations of an end to the war have emerged, and the geopolitical shadow suppressing risk appetite is expected to ease, providing emotional support for BTC/ETH. (2) Expectations of cooling oil prices ease inflation anxiety The "semi-closed" state of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices and intensified inflationary pressures, which was one of the key factors previously suppressing the crypto market. If the war truly ends, falling energy costs will lower the Fed's rate cut threshold, liquidity expectations improve, and this will benefit liquidity-sensitive crypto assets in the medium term. (3) But there is still a gap between "closure" and "negotiation"; diplomats returning does not necessarily mean a peace agreement is being reached. US-Iran ceasefire talks1. Although the number of long-term Bitcoin holders has slightly decreased since early August, currently there are 14.762 million $BTC that have not moved for over 155 days, meaning 73.52% of the total circulating BTC are held long-term, with this portion not having moved for more than half a year.
2. Investors holding more than 10 Bitcoins collectively own 16.633 million BTC, which accounts for 82.86% of the current circulating supply, indicating that most high-net-worth investors are also long-term holders, as confirmed by the data in point 1.
3. The US Bitcoin spot ETFs have held a total of 1,242,260 BTC from January 11, 2024, to today. The largest institutional holder is BlackRock, with 762,287 BTC. BlackRock is the world's largest asset management company, and US institutional investors have been consistently increasing their holdings.
4. Currently, about 69 publicly listed US companies collectively hold 1.16 million BTC. Strategy alone holds 840,447 BTC. Moreover, according to 13F filings, the BTC holdings of publicly listed companies have been steadily increasing (including IBIT).
5. Russia has officially allowed exporters and importers to use $BTC for cross-border settlements. The Russian Finance Minister has confirmed that Russian companies are using domestically mined BTC for international trade. Iran has even started directly accepting Bitcoin and other digital assets in maritime services related to the Strait of Hormuz.
For these countries, the reason to buy BTC is not whether Bitcoin will reach $150,000 next year. Rather, as long as dollar accounts might be frozen or banks might refuse transactions, using BTC for settlements will still not be hindered. $xNVDA Last night after the US stock market closed, Nvidia fell another 2.91%, marking its seventh consecutive decline, the longest losing streak since 2022. Trading volume was $28.2 billion, ranking first in the entire market, with everyone selling and no buyers. The year-to-date gain is down to only 7%, placing it at the bottom among Philadelphia Semiconductor Index components.
Chip stocks collectively plunged: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.7%, Micron fell over 5%, AMD dropped over 3%, Intel fell over 3%, and TSMC dropped over 2%. The entire AI hardware chain is seeing valuation cuts.
Reasons for the decline: accelerated trend of major customers developing their own chips, diversification of AI chip spending, and skepticism about Nvidia's capital cycle model of "Nvidia underwriting customer purchases."
But guys, pay attention to a key date: this Wednesday (August 26) after market close, Beijing time early Thursday morning, Nvidia will release its Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings report. Last quarter's revenue was $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 74.9%. Goldman Sachs expects strong results this time with potential upward guidance revisions but hinted the stock price may not rise since expectations have already been raised after a 12% increase in the past two weeks.
Additionally, servers equipped with Nvidia AI chips will see at least a 15% price increase. Major customers receiving shipments next year, Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell, have already been notified.
Trading strategy: don't bet on direction before the earnings report. The oversold rebound after seven consecutive declines could happen anytime, but once the earnings report is out, the direction will be clear. If you want to play, wait for the earnings report; don't catch a falling knife before it. #BTC80KHoldOrFold BTC has once again broken through the key round value level, and the recent pace of this rebound has clearly accelerated. In addition to short covering driving the rise, institutional capital inflows back have also become an important support. Recently, US spot BTC ETFs have continued to see strong capital inflows, with weekly net inflows reaching about $1.64 billion, marking the strongest level in recent months. Continuous capital inflows for several consecutive trading days indicate that this rally does not rely entirely on short-term liquidation; the market is indeed seeing new capital taking over. Meanwhile, as BTC rises back to a high level, more short-term holders are entering unrealized profit zones, and profit-taking may gradually increase. Therefore, a breakout does not mean the risk has disappeared. Next, focus on two key signals: (1) Whether BTC can hold above $79,000; (2) Whether ETF funds can continue to maintain net inflows. If institutional buying continues and bears are forced to exit, there is still room for further upside; However, if capital inflows cool significantly, profit-taking at high levels may also amplify volatility. On the macro side, oil prices and geopolitical risks remain market variables, while the US dollar, interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy expectations are also worth watching. Strategy's continued increase in cash reserves has also drawn market attention to its subsequent BTC allocation pace. After a breakout, don't just look at the price—pay more attention to the capital. #BTC #Bitcoin #BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFallIt's a total mess!
Dao Ge directly said, this script is even more surreal than the Pharaoh's pyramids. The US swung the sanction hammer at Iran, but oil prices not only didn't rise, they actually dropped by more than 2%.
First, military de-escalation happened, and the war premium was removed. The shift from military strikes to economic sanctions means the missiles market feared didn't fly, so panic eased.
Second, the good news has been fully priced in, and profit-taking kicked in early. Oil prices had already risen over 5% last week, and the sanction news was already chewed over by the market. When the announcement day came, traders chose to sell first.
Third, the market simply doesn't believe in the effectiveness of the sanctions. Iran has been sanctioned for decades, and its shadow fleet and currency exchange networks have long been established as countermeasures. As long as China keeps buying, the sanctions are just a paper tiger.
Fourth, Iran holds the card of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials directly warned: if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will leave the Persian Gulf. This "if you cut off my financial route, I'll cut off your oil route" standoff actually makes the market feel the real risk of supply disruption remains.
What does Dao Ge think? The sanctions are a short-term negative fully priced in, oil prices have corrected, inflation pressure eased, and Bitcoin is catching a breath around 80,000. But as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, geopolitical risk premium won't disappear. Good trades are made by waiting; the direction is clear, no rush to act. $BTC $ETH $SOL #WhyDidOilPricesFallAfterUSLaunchedEconomicIsolationAgainstIran? Recent trends in the U.S. stock market have shown clear divergence: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose against the trend, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 declined. Crypto-related stocks like COIN and HOOD plunged sharply by over 4%, dragging the Asia-Pacific night session down as well.
The core behind this market situation:
▶️ Capital is rotating between highs and lows.
High-valuation tech stocks and highly volatile crypto-related stocks are facing profit-taking, with funds flowing into more defensive traditional sectors, causing structural divergence in the indices.
▶️ Crypto-related stocks face double pressure.
COIN and HOOD are weighed down both by the crypto market's own consolidation and the overall pullback in tech stocks. As highly elastic and prone to sharp rises and falls, these stocks are the first to be squeezed out.
▶️ Asia-Pacific markets show sensitive linkage.
Korean stock futures in the night session fell accordingly, reflecting global capital's short-term cautious attitude toward the tech industry chain and risk appetite assets.
Outlook:
In the short term, tech and crypto sectors still need to find support and it is not advisable to blindly bottom-fish. However, as long as the macro fundamentals do not deteriorate, the pullback after squeezing out excess liquidity may provide mid-to-long-term investors with more cost-effective entry points. Instead of focusing solely on index fluctuations, it is better to pay more attention to capital flows between sectors.
This is not investment advice. DYOR #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
Raised $2 billion but didn’t buy a single BTC: MicroStrategy’s capital engineering major shift
Last week, MicroStrategy raised about $2.007 billion by placing 18.26 million shares of MSTR. Unexpectedly, Saylor did not increase his Bitcoin holdings that week, keeping the position steady at 840,447 BTC.
Where did the money go? The answer lies in the company’s balance sheet restructuring: part of the funds were used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, the USD Reserve was expanded to $5.1 billion, and a new independent USD Cash pool of $1.59 billion was established. The former is specifically to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest, while the latter serves as a flexible ammunition reserve that can be used to buy BTC, repurchase securities, or repay debt.
This move marks a significant evolution in its capital logic. Previously, the approach was "raise dollars and immediately buy BTC," but this time the priority is building a cash firewall and adjusting the capital structure. Although it dilutes common stock in the short term, the $5.1 billion interest reserve almost completely eliminates the systemic risk of forced coin sales due to extreme crashes.
The deeper game lies in the ultimate use of this cash: will it continue to act as a structural buy to support BTC, or will it be used to repurchase shares when premiums fall? This not only determines the spot buying power for BTC but will also reshape MSTR’s valuation premium space.
Do you think Saylor is preparing for a super bottom in BTC, or is he prudently guarding against tightening liquidity? $BTC
In every bull market in history, Bitcoin's market dominance plummets.
Altcoins lead the way.
In 2020, it was doge and shib.
In 2023, it's ordi.
The reason is simple: attracting enough off-exchange capital to enter.
But recently, this week, Bitcoin's market dominance hit a new high for the year, and altcoins only made symbolic moves.
You call this a bull market?
Some say the rules of the bull market have changed, with institutions leading. Are you kidding? Are institutions doing charity? Who do they pump prices for? Retail investors have already exited, so who are they selling to?
So the reason for this rally is obvious. I'll say it plainly: as long as market dominance doesn't drop, as long as there's no next shib, and the dog holders keep pumping, I'll keep shorting. The bottom for this round is at 46000 Fundamental Research Report $STORJ / Storj (DePIN) $3.20
Essentially: Storj ($STORJ) overall score 55/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token value capture is realized.
Fundamental breakdown: Storj (token $STORJ), DePIN sector. Focused on distributed cloud storage. Competitors include FIL, AR. Traditional compute rental giants like AWS, CoreWeave charge by GPU hour, with A100 monthly rent at $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high barrier. On-chain solutions fragment compute power for bidding, suppliers need no centralized approval, idle GPUs become available supply. Customer price $50-$500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side, address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing see PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales see whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants grade B, not representing long-term tech VC holdings, tech integration see API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, Storj $3.00B, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. FDV, Storj $4.20B, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Annual revenue, Storj $2.00M, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, Storj undisclosed, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top players. To conclude: fundamentals solid (score 55/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to note: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. Indicator deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit It's been just over a month since around 60K, and $BTC has already touched near 80K again. Does the logic of "finding the bottom in September-October" within the four-year cycle still hold?
This is a question I've been considering and thinking about recently. Honestly, I’m more inclined to believe that this cycle still exists...
BTC has risen more than 20% in the past week, now approaching $80,000. The US spot BTC ETF saw nearly $2 billion inflow last week, one of the strongest weeks since October last year.
Capital and price are both coming back; this round definitely can’t be simply treated as an ordinary rebound.
But actually, we all know that according to the strict four-year cycle theory, the bottom of this bear market should be around October.
However, there is one aspect of the four-year cycle that is particularly easy to misunderstand: completing the bottom formation around September-October does not mean the lowest price must appear in September-October.
For example, the previous 60K area might already be the lowest point of this round, and the subsequent movement could be:
60K → 82K → 72K / 75K → 90K
The price bottom comes out early, and then in autumn, a major pullback forms a Higher Low. The timing of the cycle bottom can still hold.
This is actually the scenario I currently lean towards.
The second scenario is a bit more painful.
BTC continues to surge to 83K–85K, everyone starts shouting new bull market, then it falls back to 70K, 65K, or even near 60K. If it can’t even hold the previous 60K, then this round is just a very strong large-scale rebound within the bear market, and the four-year cycle’s autumn bottom search regains dominance.
The third scenario to keep in mind: the four-year cycle itself is either accelerating or weakening.
Now ETFs, institutional funds, publicly listed companies holding coins, and the derivatives market are completely different from 2018 and 2022. The cycle can be referenced, but if you blindly short just because "October must be the bottom," I think you might easily get yourself wiped out.
So for now, I won’t rush to declare a new bull market, nor will I short against this upward trend just because of the four-year cycle.
What I want to see now is the first truly decent daily pullback.
Short term, watch around 78K first, then 74K–75K below that.
If it pulls back from 82K–85K and holds near 75K, then breaks the previous high again, this Higher Low is much more important to me than "BTC rose another 5% today."
Conversely, if after this surge it falls back below 70K, even eventually breaking through 60K, then finding a real major bottom again in September-October also makes perfect sense.
So my current baseline idea is simple: I’m more inclined to think the earlier low has a chance to be the final price bottom, but there will most likely be a real major pullback testing the bulls this autumn.
Whether that pullback breaks the previous low or not, there might be a Higher Low — a higher low point.
That is the most important card for me to judge whether this round is truly a new bull market.
If by October there is no pullback at all, then it can basically be concluded that the previous range from just over 50K to over 60K basically formed a bottom.
If after these days the market starts a pullback curve, then the next pullback will basically be the bottom of this bear market.
So from the current situation, the trend direction throughout September will be extremely important and will determine whether everyone can truly catch this bottom.
Still a bit hopeful... #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？
Is the U.S. Treasury planning to use the TGA to buy back long-term debt?
Are you about to shout, "The U.S. is about to flood the market, BTC is taking off!"
Hold on a moment.
TGA is the "cash account" the U.S. Treasury holds at the Federal Reserve.
Currently, this account has about $935 billion.
If the Treasury uses part of it to buy back long-term U.S. debt, it could indeed bring some liquidity to the market and increase demand for long-term bonds.
But there is a very important distinction: the Treasury using the TGA is not the same as the Federal Reserve restarting QE.
Don’t jump to the conclusion that $BTC is about to start a new rally just because of this news.
What’s worth watching is whether long-term U.S. Treasury yields can sustainably decline as a result.
If the following happens: TGA releases liquidity → long-term bond demand increases → Treasury yields fall → dollar pressure eases → risk assets like gold and BTC regain investor attention,
then this chain truly holds.
But if it’s just a buyback of a few billion dollars, while the U.S. fiscal deficit continues to widen and debt issuance keeps rising, long-term yields won’t come down.
Then it might just be the Treasury trying to ease market pain rather than solving the problem.
Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield.
If it really keeps moving down, BTC and $XAU gold could genuinely benefit from this liquidity wave.
Otherwise, just seeing the word "TGA" and calling a bull market is likely mistaking expectations for reality.$H started to rebound from the bottom today. If we calculate from its high point, its current price is quite low. However, if we look purely at the project itself, the current price is still a bit high. I analyzed the data and found that the shorting pressure is not that strong yet. Therefore, personally, I think it's not very suitable to short at this moment. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that its open interest has been continuously increasing during its upward phase, while its long-short ratio has been steadily decreasing. Regular readers of my articles should know that this situation generally indicates that there is quite a bit of capital shorting. Having capital shorting means there is a possibility of the coin declining. Let's also look at its data over a longer period. We can see that currently, its open interest has not yet reached the previous high, and its long-short ratio has not fallen to the previous low. This means that the current position is still relatively low. If $ETH were not so high right now, I would most likely enter a long position on $H at this level. However, $ETH's price is too high now, and I am a bit worried it might crash sharply from this high. Once the major coins crash from a high, it is very likely to drag down the entire market. —————————————————— I am waiting now. If the market can maintain this high level, then I might start going long on small altcoins like $H below.#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
US diplomats are returning to the Middle East, a signal more direct than any statement.
Washington judges that a full-scale conflict with Iran will not erupt again, and the withdrawn personnel are starting to return. This is not just talk—it's concrete action. The White House believes the most dangerous phase of the situation has passed.
The Strait of Hormuz's daily shipping volume has rebounded to 20-25 vessels, and traders are beginning to unwind war premium positions. This is a suppressive signal for $CL oil prices, but for the entire risk asset class, the easing of geopolitical tensions itself is positive.
$BTC has broken through $80,000, and expectations of continued loose liquidity are fermenting. If oil prices maintain a state of fading geopolitical premium, inflationary pressures will ease, and the Federal Reserve's policy path will become clearer.
My $AXTI grid is still waiting near 67 for Nvidia's earnings report. With geopolitical risks cooling down, if Nvidia performs well tonight, the semiconductor equipment chain will likely recover. The situation is moving in a positive direction; it just depends on whether the earnings report can provide that boost.Recently, there has been a sudden surge in voices about Dogecoin in the market, with many influencers and communities shouting, "It's bottomed out, now it's time to buy the dip." At first glance, it sounds tempting, but after checking the actual on-chain and contract data, I found things aren't as simple as the slogans say. The current data is quite interesting: about 1,239 retail addresses are continuously buying Dogecoin, with many spending concentrated around $0.091, which is almost equivalent to buying near recent highs, and they are currently trapped. On the other hand, there are only 317 short addresses, far fewer than the longs, but their total holdings exceed $81.7 million, larger than the total long positions held by retail investors. In other words, the chips that a few people bet on to fall are heavier than the majority bet on an upward chip. What's even more noteworthy is that these short sellers are currently in a floating loss state, with book losses exceeding $10 million. Logically, with positions trapped and widening unrealized losses, bears should feel the pressure. But looking at it another way, with such large positions in the market, do they really have the patience to keep holding on? If prices continue to move sideways, floating losses will only drag on longer, and capital costs will keep accumulating. In this situation, the main players' more likely approach is not to admit a loss and exit, but to find a way to push the price down a bit, encouraging retail investors to sell chips at low levels or attract more bottom-fishing funds to catch their shipments. So the current market gives me the impression that, on the surface, retail investors are bottom-fishing and big influencers are shouting orders, but at the bottom, it's actually a game of 'short positions, heavy positions, trapped, waiting for self-rescue.' Retail investorsWhy do I feel that $BTC can't break through 86,000? Here's my take:
1. The 80,000 level is quite exhausting; the highest reached was 81,280, just a breath away from last year's high. But the RSI is already at 87, entering the historical warning zone.
Looking back at the major peaks in 2017 and 2021, after RSI breaks 85, it either consolidates sideways for a month or reverses sharply at the peak; no third pattern has been seen.
2. The problem is that the resistance at 81,280 is too close, even if it breaks through, it will need new positive catalysts to continue.
3. There are actually quite a few positives: the Treasury's long-term bond repurchase doubled, ETF net inflow hit a record high of 1.92 billion last week, shorts liquidated 4.6 billion in 24 hours, and the "Clear Act" still holds some uncertainty.
But at this point, some of these positives have already been priced in; a completely new catalyst is needed to sustain the momentum.
So my approach is: don't chase spot now, it's already a bit high, try to take profits. Don't open short positions; once opened, they are easily squeezed and become fuel.📌 The cost of war has finally reached the heart of the United States. According to the Financial Times, American corn belt farmers are facing the worst crisis in 40 years—the war on Iran has driven up diesel and fertilizer costs, pushing growers to the brink of survival. Research shows that without government aid, growers of nine major crops would lose a total of $31 billion this year, and another $32 billion next year. Corn lost $131 per acre, expanding to $167 in 2027; Soybeans lost $80 per acre, growing to $138 next year. 2027 will mark the sixth consecutive year of negative returns. The Middle East conflict has entered its sixth month, with shocks spreading from the battlefield to U.S. agricultural states. With less than a year until the midterm elections, economic pressures are affecting voter sentiment—a microcosm of the war's "backlash" at home. 📊 Impact on the crypto market: (1) Increased stickiness of inflation, negative for liquid assets. The war has driven up energy and fertilizer costs, putting pressure on agricultural prices upward to the food side, making it harder for inflation to fall. The Fed has raised the threshold for rate cuts, creating medium-term pressure on BTC/ETH, which is sensitive to interest rates. (2) U.S. Economic Resilience Tested: Agricultural states are the Republican base, and worsening losses for farmers may force the government to increase subsidies, further worsening the fiscal deficit. The long-term crack in US dollar credit is widening, but short-term trading logic focuses more on "inflation is hard to come down" rather than "worsening deficits," putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin. (3) Rising geopolitical risks, BTC risk aversion narrative awaits activation If internal US economic pressures combine with escalating external conflicts, market panic may eventually shift toward BTC's "digital yellow."BTC just touched the previous high and then stopped; this is not weakness, but the market reshuffling its lineup. Have you noticed that the ones rising the most recently are not the usual faces, but a batch of "coins with stories that no one pays close attention to"? Today, I want to discuss an often overlooked perspective: sector strength and weakness, rather than the overall market rise or fall. First, look at $BEAT. It is still slowly climbing out of a deep drop; the selling pressure from the previous large unlock hasn't been fully absorbed, and a new batch of unlock windows is approaching, so the market instinctively raises its hand to defend. The rebound of such coins is a "breather after a big drop," not a trend reversal. Only when it reclaims the key platform it previously broke below and forms higher lows can the structure be considered truly repaired. Until then, every rebound feels like a probe, not a promise. Next, look at $BICO. The positive news from Upbit has basically been priced in. Now it has shifted from an "event-driven" phase to a "chip rotation" phase. If the price falls back near the starting point of this rally, it indicates short-term hot money is exiting, not a shakeout. This level is more important than chasing highs. $HYPE is another type of example. It has hit a new all-time high again, protocol revenue is rising, and expectations for US regulation are relatively positive. The trend is intact, but if there is a high-volume drop at the top, be cautious of a "buy panic sell-off." The higher it rises, the more you need to watch those who entered only at the top; their stop-loss lines are often the next big bearish candle. $BTC is oscillating at a high level, ETF money is still flowing in, indicating support is still there, but the willingness to chase is clearly weakening. $OKB relies on Xla Circle's investment logic is very simple
Their business is straightforward: using USD obtained from USDC swaps to buy U.S. Treasuries for risk-free wealth management
U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate with the economic cycle, and stock prices move accordingly, but in the long run, as Fu Peng said, due to de-internationalization, the dollar is unlikely to return to a low interest rate era; it's basically a difference between 3% and 4%
I believe the two most important factors for Circle are actually these two
One external factor and one internal factor
The external factor is the crypto space: will Bitcoin reach new highs in the future?
The internal factor is Circle's own USDC: will its share of stablecoins expand or shrink?
I think these two points currently hold true. I have previously added positions in batches and am still holding
Just throwing out some ideas, does anyone else have other thoughts?A Brief Analysis of the Recent Uptrend Logic of OKB
OKB has shown strong performance recently: over 40% increase this month, about 10-15% rise this week, and intraday it once surged close to $120, currently hovering around $115. The underlying logic can be viewed from two layers.
1. Market Beta Dominance (Most Direct in the Short Term)
This wave mainly follows the overall market strength. BTC surged toward $80,000, the US stock spot ETF saw continuous large net inflows (about $1.9 billion last week, the strongest in nearly 10 months), combined with macro factors like US Treasury buybacks, the US dollar weakened, and risk assets broadly rose. Exchange platform tokens naturally have high beta characteristics; when trading volume expands (global 24h turnover significantly rises), OKB, as the core asset of the OKX ecosystem, sees demand pushed up accordingly. This is a typical case of "hot market, platform tokens move first."
2. Fundamental Support (Medium to Long-Term Logic)
• Scarcity is confirmed: By 2025, OKX will complete large-scale token burns and permanently lock the supply at 21 million tokens. Smart contracts will cancel minting and manual burning functions, fully transforming it into a fixed supply asset, narratively comparable to BTC-style scarcity.
• Expansion of practical use cases: OKB is now the native Gas for X Layer (OKX’s self-developed L2) and is also tied to Exchange OS (staking/usage required for deploying trading venues). The platform is continuously adding products—24/7 tokenized US stocks and ETFs, new markets, OKX Card stablecoin payments, etc.—directly boosting holding and usage demand.
• Compliance and institutional endorsement: Obtained the Dubai VARA VASP license,The script of 2022 seems to be being rewritten, but this time, those who flipped through it had something different in their pockets. Back then, Bitcoin fell to around $17,700 in June, then experienced a sharp rebound, then slowly retreated to a low of $15,800, and Ethereum followed a similar trajectory, drawing its own bottom curve. What that memory left the market with was not just numbers, but an instinctive vigilance against a "second bottom." Now, a similar pattern has resurfaced. Bitcoin has rebounded strongly from below $60,000 to approach the $80,000 mark, and Ethereum has climbed back above $2,400. The outline of the price movement is indeed somewhat similar to four years ago, but the background is completely different. In this cycle, the most striking variable is no longer retail investors' frenzy or panic, but the continued influx of institutional funds through spot ETFs. In the past week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows close to $2 billion, while Ethereum spot ETFs recorded nearly $700 million in increases. These figures were unimaginable in the winter of 2022. This raises a thought-provoking question: Are we seeing a true cycle bottom, or just a rebound tinged with hope? 🌀 From a capital perspective, sustained ETF inflows have indeed provided the market with a thicker cushion. Unlike previous reliances on leverage and contracts, buying through compliant channels often comes with longer holding cycles and lower risk appetite volatility. It may not necessarily stop declines, but it can slow down during declines and provide more during reboundsBTC at $79,800, are you waiting for a pullback?
First, let's look at the surface: 8 days ago it was still at 64,000 cursing the bear market, now 80,000 is right in front of us.
Since the start at 64,000 on August 19, it has surged continuously, with a weekly increase of 23%, the strongest weekly gain since 2023. The daily chart breaks through all moving averages, 20EMA stands above 70,000, 200EMA above 71,000, volume expands — a textbook volume breakout.
First point: this surge is not because crypto itself has improved.
The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, directly suppressing long-end yields and softening the dollar. The global fiat depreciation expectation ignited the fuse for "digital gold." BTC and gold rise together, correlation maxed out.
Last week, Trump called on Congress to pass crypto market structure legislation, further fanning the flames. The Fear & Greed Index jumped from 40 (fear) last week directly to 73-74 (greed), with some sources even above 80.
In 8 days, market sentiment changed from "I'm doomed" to "I'm going to get rich." The same price moved from 64,000 to 80,000; what changed was the market's confidence in the dollar.
Second point: shorts were liquidated for $3 billion, but the real buying comes from here.
In the past week, short liquidations exceeded $3 billion, accelerating the rise. But more importantly — the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw net inflows of about $1.9-2 billion last week, the strongest week since October 2025.
BlackRock IBIT contributed the most, with net inflows exceeding $2 billion since August. This is not a fake breakout.
Third point: technically, it’s time for a decisive moment.
The daily RSI surged to 80-84, extremely overbought; 4-hour and 1-hour charts are also overheated — a short-term pullback is needed for digestion.
But the trend remains bullish: daily chart breaks downtrend line and consolidation box, all moving averages aligned bullishly, Bollinger Bands widening, a typical trending market.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Weekly gain of 23%, volume breakout through all moving averages
ETF net inflow of $2 billion in one week, institutions aggressively accumulating
U.S. Treasury repurchasing bonds, fiat depreciation narrative begins
Short liquidations of $3 billion, spot buying dominates
On the other side:
RSI 80-84 extremely overbought, strong pullback demand
80,000 failed to hold three times, huge psychological pressure
This week’s PCE + Jackson Hole, intense macro variables
Greed index at 80, FOMO sentiment peak signal
Resistance above: 80,000-81,200 → 84,000-88,000 → 90,000-95,000
Support below: 78,000-78,500 → 75,000-76,000 → 72,000-73,000
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Light long positions near 79,800, stop loss at 76,800 (below previous low), target 81,500-84,000.
Conservative:
Wait for pullback to 78,000-78,500 to build positions in batches, stop loss at 75,500. Or wait for daily close above 81,000 to chase longs, stop loss at 79,500. Targets 85,000 → 90,000-95,000.
Do not short unless it clearly breaks below 75,000 with volume.
Risk control iron rule:
Keep total position at 30-50%, leverage 3-5x, don’t be greedy. This week’s PCE and Jackson Hole are major variables, reduce positions and observe before events. Move stop profits after gains, don’t let profits turn into illusions.
8 days ago at 64,000 you didn’t dare to buy, today at 80,000 you dare even less.
Waiting for a pullback? What if it doesn’t come? ETF bought $2 billion in one week, Treasury is printing money, Trump is calling for buys — this narrative is even stronger than when the ETF was approved in 2024.
But overbought is real too. At 80,000, chasing in means a $2,000 pullback, can you handle it?
Have a base position, keep bullets ready. Buy in batches below 78,000, chase on break above 81,000, 75,000 is the bottom line.
What is your BTC cost?
At 80,000, do you dare to get on board?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Capital flows are surging beneath the surface, and ETFs are paving the way for altcoin market trends.
$BTC has broken through $80,000, $ETH has reached $2,500, and the major market leaders still firmly control the market rhythm. But shifting focus away from price, a more subtle signal is emerging: institutional allocations are quietly spreading from a single BTC direction to peripheral assets.
As of this week, non-mainstream ETFs have seen a combined net inflow of about $89 million, with $SOL accounting for approximately $28.3 million, UNI about $12 million, and HYPE around $3.9 million. The scale is not large, but the directional signal is more important than the amount itself. The logic chain of capital transmission has always been clear: BTC breaks through first, ETH follows to confirm, then funds spill over to leading altcoins. The current stage is exactly at the transition point from the second to the third ring.
The structural rally in the altcoin sector is budding but far from a full bloom. The scale is limited, sustainability remains to be tested, and the conditions for a broad-based rally are not yet sufficient. The major market has already set the stage, and capital is just beginning to look for the performers. Stay observant, be patient, avoid rushing into heavy positions, and wait for further confirmation of the trend before taking action. There is a frequently overlooked phenomenon in the market: after the same round of rally ends, the adjustment patterns of $BTC and $ETH are not the same.
$BTC's chip structure leans more towards long-term holding, with a large amount of early chips in a low liquidity state. After a rapid rise, some large funds tend to continue observing rather than cashing out all at once. Therefore, BTC's phased pullbacks are more due to contract leverage liquidations, short-term profit-taking, and other factors, resulting in a relatively gentle overall adjustment rhythm.
In contrast, ETH has stronger market liquidity. After a significant rise, short-term profit-taking, capital rotation, and some staking-related liquid chips may create more obvious selling pressure. Even if the overall market sentiment does not deteriorate significantly, ETH may experience independent pullbacks, causing its trend strength to diverge from BTC.
This is also where traders are most prone to misjudgment during high-level consolidation phases: BTC's stable performance does not necessarily mean ETH has the same level of support. Facing high-level markets, the two assets require different risk management strategies, especially in leveraged trading, where position control and stop-loss settings cannot be simply duplicated.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Currently, $SOL has climbed back above $100. On August 25, it briefly broke through $103 intraday, with a seven-day increase close to 35%; During the same period, BTC rose over 25% in one week and ETH increased over 30%. So this SOL rally is driven both by its own catalysis and by factors reflecting a recovery in risk appetite across the crypto community. Guys, SOL is really fierce this time! In just one week, SOL surged nearly 35%, directly climbing back above $100, and even surged to around $103 at one point. Many people might ask: Why did SOL suddenly surge so much? I don't think it's just a simple "pump"; there are at least several reasons 👇 1️behind it. ⃣ The entire crypto community is rising, and SOL is a highly elastic asset. BTC broke through $80,000 again, rising over 25% in the past week; ETH also rose more than 30%. When market risk appetite returns, funds tend not to buy only BTC but then look for mainstream counterfeits with higher elasticity. SOL has always been recognized as a high-beta product, so once the market starts, its gains often amplify significantly. 2️⃣ ETF funds keep flowing in, which is the key The biggest difference this time with SOL is that institutional funds have started to participate directly through ETFs. So far, the cumulative net inflow of the US spot Solana ETF has exceeded $1.16 billion, with about $33.49 million recorded in a single day on August 24. This means that what is currently driving SOL's rise is not just retail investor sentiment, but also traditional funds continuing to buy 3CRYPTO may already be front-running US's next liquidity wave. Bitcoin has surged from $62k to above $81k in under a week, a 30% rally. The move began after Treasury doubled long-term bond buybacks to at least $4B per operation. Since reports of Bessent’s potential $950B TGA firepower, BTC has gained another 4.7%. If deployed, that cash would leave Treasury’s Fed account and inject liquidity into the financial system. It could support bond prices, lower yields and push investors toward stocks andThe community is circulating a scenario where a single token mints a huge amount of stablecoins, and the high-leverage narrative is testing the market's risk appetite boundaries.
The third-party protocol Quoer has theoretically modeled the extreme state of minting stablecoins by collateralizing $CORE, but the related parameters are not open in actual operation.
If the underlying asset, valued at only $0.02 per token, carries extremely high multiples of derivative credit, even slight price disturbances can instantly breach the collateral safety buffer.
The leverage narrative is temporarily boosting speculative preference but also directly transmits the potential risk of liquidation to spot holders.
If the ecosystem relies on official staking and reserve assets to accumulate real liquidity, the warming of on-chain risk appetite will steadily improve asset turnover efficiency.
Once the spot price experiences a slight pullback, fragile collateral ratios will trigger a chain reaction of collateral auctions and stablecoin de-pegging.
If protocol governance explicitly seals off extreme collateral parameters in subsequent processes, the market's premium expectations for such liquidity leverage will gradually dissipate.
The most important variable to observe in the coming days is the speed at which on-chain funds divert positions between official native reserves and third-party high-leverage liquidity pools.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
I am Cige. The U.S. has officially launched its "economic isolation operation" against Iran, directly including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping in the secondary sanctions scope. Basent said it will be executed with "zero leakage," and relevant countries must shut down identified activities according to the timetable. The Iranian rial has fallen to a new low of 2,039,000 to 1 USD in the unofficial market.
But oil prices did not rise; instead, they fell. The market has not priced the sanction escalation as an immediate supply shock but is waiting for a more concrete outcome—whether third countries will cooperate and whether the sanctions can truly block Iran's oil and capital flows. If it’s just adding more names to the sanction list, the impact on oil prices is limited. If they start seizing ships, freezing accounts, and sanctioning banks, that will be a real supply shock.
Digital assets are specifically listed in the sanction list. This is the first time the U.S. government has included crypto assets as an independent sanction channel in an economic war against a sovereign country. The USDT in the Central Bank of Iran’s wallet has already been frozen once; this time, the entire channel is shut down. In the short term, this is bearish. The government is directly using USDT’s compliance to enforce sanctions, and the market will reassess stablecoin risks. In the medium term, sanctioned countries and entities have only two choices: either use more decentralized settlement methods or completely exit the dollar system. Whichever path they choose, BTC’s non-sovereign nature is being validated.
$BTC $ETH $BZ #TreasuryBuybackTest
Treasury buybacks can make the bond market smoother. They can't make America's debt problem disappear. Doubling the long-bond buyback cap may reduce volatility, but deficits, heavy issuance and inflation still determine what investors demand to lend for 30 years. That's the distinction I'm watching. Better liquidity can calm markets without creating cheaper money. If long yields stay elevated anyway, stocks, gold and BTC may still have to adjust.The most worth watching about $ETH these days is not how much it has risen, but that the same pressure zone has been repeatedly tested for a full 4 hours without ever closing above it; meanwhile, Farside reports that US ETH products have seen net inflows of about $808 million over six consecutive trading days, but the inflow rate has slowed in the last three days.
This is the current contradiction: the price is trying to accept upward movement, spot capital direction is still positive, but the new momentum has not continued to accelerate. Derivatives are also not showing typical one-sided runaway behavior—Bitget samples show significantly more long accounts, but the position sizes are nearly balanced. My judgment still leans bullish, but the "high-level turnover completion" is really just a hypothesis waiting to be verified now.
The key to the main path is only to recognize a full 4-hour close above 2,550, and then on the first pullback, not to fall back into the pressure zone; if this step is missed, I will wait first and still treat the rally as a pressure test within the range. If a full 4-hour close breaks below 2,355, the structure of raising the lows this round will no longer hold, and I will accept deeper digestion first without making up stories for the decline.
In the next update, I will only look at one question: when spot inflows continue to slow, can ETH turn the pressure into support; at which step would you take it as confirmation? 8-year high at 888, a 60% surge in one week, market cap breaking 14 billion, perpetual positions at 1.7 billion USD — but just now, ZEC price is violently fluctuating around 850, funding rates soaring, both longs and shorts liquidated. Is this wave the start of the “privacy coin revolution,” or just a pump by whales to hit an 8-year high waiting for you to take the bag?
On one side:
Grayscale Zcash ETF progressing steadily, the first privacy coin spot ETF
Weekly inverse head and shoulders breakout, confirming a major reversal
Mining institutionalization, Winklevoss group heavily invested
Ironwood upgrade + NU7 voting, active ecosystem
Privacy narrative becoming more valuable in the AI surveillance era
On the other side:
60% rise in one week, 70% in one month, seriously overbought
RSI 80-88, historically every time it hits this range there’s a correction
Institutional cost 300-400, 850 is the distribution zone
ETF expectations partially priced in, prone to "sell the news"
Regulatory risk: privacy coins are always targets
Any asset doubling in a short time needs to digest gains. Either sideways consolidation waiting for moving averages to catch up, or a direct pullback of 30-50%.
ZEC now is like SOL in 2021 —
From 5 to 50, everyone said "too expensive," then it went to 200. But when it dropped from 50 to 20, the harshest critics were the same people.
On the day 888 breaks out, you’ll realize:
It’s not that ZEC is bad, it’s that you always buy at the top and sell at the bottom. #Strategy increase issuance to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under focus The man who once frantically bought has completely changed. Previously, Saylor's approach was "financing → buying coins → refinancing → buying coins again," a high-leverage perpetual motion cycle. Now it has become "financing → hoarding cash → paying interest → waiting for opportunities." Why the change? Neither interest nor stock price allows him to continue recklessly. With 840,000 BTC at an average price of 75,385,#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？
Facing market turbulence caused by high long-term U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. Treasury plans to use the TGA (Treasury General Account) cash balance to expand long-term Treasury buybacks, attempting to ease liquidity pressure through administrative measures.
But can this combination really untie the deadlock of U.S. Treasuries?
Short-term liquidity buffer release: Using TGA funds to repurchase less liquid old bonds in the open market can indeed inject some liquidity into the banking system in the short term, lowering 30-year Treasury yields.
A financial shuffle that treats symptoms, not the root cause: TGA funds are essentially the government's existing fiscal deposits; using these deposits for buybacks is just asset-liability management moving money from one pocket to another and cannot offset the trillion-dollar fiscal deficits and the flood of bond issuance.
A breathing window on the asset side: The decline in long-term rates temporarily alleviates the valuation pressure on stocks and crypto markets, but
if the oversupply pattern does not change, the long-term rate baseline is still more likely to rise than fall.
How long do you think the Treasury can support U.S. Treasuries relying on the TGA? Have long-term rates really peaked?
$TLT $BTC $XAU #U.S.Treasuries #TGA #Liquidity #Treasury #Macroeconomics The inertia that BTC is moving while altcoins remain stagnant has already become a market consensus, but the key variable now is when that consensus will break. On the surface, funds are flowing into BTC and ETH, and altcoins are clearly being sidelined. However, what the price actually reflects is not "funds can't move over," but the market's judgment that "there is no need to move over yet." - BTC is approaching $80K, and ETH is maintaining the $2.5K level. - Major altcoins like LAB, BEAT, H, KAITO show almost no movement. - Weekly inflows into US spot BTC and ETH ETFs reach about $2.6 billion. The structure this data reveals is simple. Institutional funds are first building positions in index-type assets BTC and ETH, and rotation into altcoins has not yet begun. The market is currently trading risk premium reduction before expanding risk appetite. The question is when and under what conditions this flow will transition to altcoins. The bullish scenario and its invalidation#Strategy increase issuance to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under focus
The man who once frantically bought has completely changed.
Previously, Saylor's approach was "financing → buying coins → refinancing → buying coins again," a high-leverage perpetual motion cycle. Now it has become "financing → hoarding cash → paying interest → waiting for opportunities."
Why the change? Neither interest nor stock price allows him to continue recklessly.
With 840,000 BTC at an average price of 75,385, the current price results in a book loss exceeding 10 billion. He also has to pay 1.76 billion in dividends and interest annually. Continuing to buy mindlessly like before is not faith, it's courting death.
So he first dismantled the "interest expense" bomb to let himself live longer.
The impact on the crypto circle is twofold.
First, the most steadfast bulls in the market have stopped, putting short-term sentiment under pressure. In recent years, people were used to Saylor calling trades weekly and continuously buying, but now that expectation is gone. However, this is not a signal that the bull market is over; he has never sold at the bottom, just changed his way of living.
Second, in the mid to long term, this is actually a good thing. The previous high-leverage cycle, once broken, would cause a chain reaction of explosions. Now, with 5.1 billion in cash plus 840,000 BTC, the base is actually more stable. He himself said he won't be forced to sell coins at unfavorable prices. Being able to survive without selling coins means the coins in hand will only become more valuable.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. Years of ups and downs in the crypto world—from the 312 crash, the 519 liquidation, to the collapse of FTX—I've seen too many people exit. In trading, what is harder to achieve is taking profits or stopping losses in time? My answer is clear: in the crypto world, taking profits in time is much harder than stopping losses in time. This doesn't mean stop-loss is easy, but what takes profit requires confrontation—more hidden and deadly, and more true to a trader's character. Let's start with stop-loss losses. Crypto traders are no strangers to cutting losses. High leverage and high volatility cause the cost of mistakes to magnify exponentially, which instead becomes a harsh forcing mechanism: if you don't cut losses, liquidation is the end. After ten years, I have internalized stop-loss as muscle memory: setting a stop-loss level when opening a position, exiting immediately without asking why. The difficulty in cutting losses lies in going against human nature, but at least it has a clear standard line—an inward, controllable pain. Making a wrong judgment is not scary; after admitting it, stopping losses can actually be a relief and the bottom line of risk control. Taking profits is a war on another level. The most toxic superstition in the crypto world is the narrative of getting rich. You took profits during a big rally, Bitcoin rose from 50,000 to 60,000, and you told yourself that cashing in was the right choice, but it soared all the way to 100,000. Social media is filled with cheers of 'Never Get Off,' and your rational profit-taking is instantly labeled as a cognitive deficiency. This anxiety about missing out is even more tormenting than loss; loss is losing what you already have, but missing out is the phantom pain of missing out on what you should have. In behavioral finance, this is called 'Hou'🐂 The triple drivers behind this surge (Why OKB leads the platform tokens) $OKB 1. Supply side: The largest burn in history + permanent total supply lock In August 2025, OKX will permanently burn about 65.26 million OKB at once, reducing the total supply from 300 million to 21 million, and permanently removing the rights for additional issuance and manual burns, aligning with Bitcoin's fixed total supply model. What does this mean? - Circulating supply drops sharply by about 75%, instantly igniting expectations of absolute scarcity - Any marginal demand increase will be amplified into price elasticity by the extremely small supply of 21 million - Differentiates the narrative from BNB's quarterly buyback and burn model 2. Demand side: X Layer ecosystem data realized OKB is no longer a "fee discount coupon" but the sole Gas token of the X Layer second-layer network: - X Layer's DeFi TVL surpassed $117 million, nearly 10x growth in half a year - Stablecoin issuance exceeds $2 billion, entering the global top ten public chains - Active addresses exceed 4.2 million, on-chain transactions exceed 400 million - Leading protocols like Aave and Uniswap have been deployed - xStocks tokenized stock trading volume share on X Layer has surpassed Solana and Ethereum - Circle native USDC integrated on August 7 Many people overlook a reality: after the same round of rally ends, the shakeout logic of BTC and ETH is completely different.
$BTC has a large amount of chips in a long-term dormant state. After a big surge, major holders tend to hold and observe rather than sell off in large quantities. The pullback mainly comes from liquidation shocks caused by contract leverage, so the downward rhythm is relatively mild. ETH's chip liquidity is much higher. After a significant rally, swing profit-taking and unlocked staked floating chips will concentrate on fleeing. Even if the overall market does not show obvious weakness, $ETH will still experience an independent retracement.
This is the tormenting part of the high-level phase: the overall market looks relatively stable, but the ETH retracement on hand exceeds expectations. Do not simply use BTC's resistance to decline to predict ETH's support strength. In a high-level oscillation market, ETH's support will be more fragile. When trading with leverage, position size and stop-loss standards must be treated differently for the two coins; one set of parameters cannot be universally applied.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ Good evening everyone!
$BTC BTC Bitcoin
The supply side has a hard cap of 21 million coins, with a halving mechanism that solidifies the deflationary rhythm. The new token supply continues to shrink, making it the only asset among the three with a fixed total supply. It is a commodity-type asset, similar to bulk commodities, whose value comes from scarcity and consensus, without interference from issuance variables.
Supply constraints are its biggest moat. Regardless of bull or bear markets, new selling pressure is predictable. Institutional allocations value this point, treating it as a risk hedge tool in portfolios. The downside is no intrinsic yield; the price is entirely determined by external buying. In the late bull market, opportunity cost can arise. When the market is euphoric, funds flow to tokens with ecosystem stories; but once panic hits, limited supply allows it to absorb safe-haven funds, with drawdowns significantly smaller than ETH and SOL.
$ETH ETH Ethereum
No hard total supply cap, uses dynamic issuance plus fee burning mechanism. When the network is active, it is deflationary; when sluggish, inflationary. Supply elasticity is large. It is a hybrid equity-commodity asset. Staking generates new tokens, while L2 solutions divert fees, directly affecting burn scale.
The dual nature of supply is very prominent: on-chain prosperity means burning exceeds issuance, token deflation, favorable for valuation; on-chain activity decline means issuance dominates, equivalent to implicit dilution. It is half like BTC pursuing scarcity, half like a tech equity relying on ecosystem value creation. This mixed attribute causes market swings: institutions are willing to allocate but are disturbed by inflation and SEC securities classification issues. Supply is not fixed; long-term supply changes highly depend on ecosystem development, with uncertainty higher than BTC.
$SOL SOL (Solana)
Inflation release is most obvious, token unlocking and staking rewards continuously increase circulating supply, no deflationary burn mechanism, long-term net issuance state. It is a high-growth risk asset, closer to early-stage tech growth stocks.
During rapid network development, the market ignores inflation, focusing on transaction performance and ecosystem explosion; but when the market weakens, continuous new token selling pressure amplifies declines. Staking ratio is much lower than ETH, allowing large amounts of tokens to quickly flow into secondary markets. Its core contradiction: the ecosystem needs continuous issuance to incentivize developers and validators, but issuance exerts long-term downward pressure on the token price. Only when on-chain revenue explodes enough to cover inflation dilution can supply pressure be absorbed; otherwise, issuance becomes a dark line suppressing valuation long-term.
The essential supply differences among the three: BTC supply is fixed; ETH supply fluctuates dynamically with the ecosystem; SOL relies on continuous issuance to drive the ecosystem. Under the current market, supply risks are not fully priced in. Once the bull market cools, tokens with greater supply elasticity will face heavier correction pressure. $SNDK The story of SanDisk is only half told
The narrative in the storage industry is shifting gears, but most people haven't caught on yet.
A friend who has worked in the storage industry for ten years shared a story: In 2019, he bought SanDisk for the first time when the stock price was just over 20, with a PE ratio of only 5. Analysts said NAND is cyclical, so after a rise, it would fall back. He believed it and sold after making 30%. Now SanDisk is at 1,493, up 529% YTD, and has increased 70 times in 7 years.
He said: The mistake back then was treating SanDisk as a cyclical stock. But the logic of storage has changed. Previously, NAND demand came from phones and PCs; if phones didn't sell, NAND would be oversupplied. Now demand comes from AI inference, and every inference generates data that must be stored. This is not cyclical fluctuation but structural growth.
KOSPI has dropped 30% from its June high, with Samsung and SK Hynix accounting for over 53% of KOSPI's market cap. Korean leveraged funds are deleveraging, but SanDisk's NBM has locked 67% of capacity. Viewing AI storage with a cyclical stock mindset is the biggest cognitive gap in this market.
Conclusion: Bullish in the medium term. Pullbacks are opportunities, not risks. Buy in batches below $1,400, and HBF mass production is the next catalyst.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The $80,000 mark has finally been broken. Is this a quick bull comeback or a bull trap?
Pharaoh says directly, $80,000 is a psychological barrier, not the final stop. This surge was driven by three forces pulling together—the Fed's buyback suppressing yields, shorts being liquidated to tears, and ETF institutions aggressively buying. These three factors combined pulled the price up over 25% in a week, with shorts liquidated for $7.2 billion in that same period.
Can $80,000 hold now? Pharaoh thinks the key depends on three points.
First, the short squeeze momentum is fading. Most shorts that could be liquidated have been, so whether the rally continues depends on whether spot buyers can take over.
Second, profit-taking is already happening. Short-term holders transferred 43,300 BTC to exchanges to realize profits—the largest profit-taking this year. The $78,000-$80,000 range is a solid technical support zone; if it holds, the bullish structure remains intact.
Third, $83,000 is the first major hurdle. Bitget Research Institute bluntly states that only a valid break above $83,000 can open the way to $90,000.
How does Pharaoh see the market going forward?
In the short term, it will likely oscillate between $75,000 and $83,000. The $80,000-$90,000 range has historically low trading volume and thin liquidity, so a wrong directional move could cause painful spikes.
Strategically, wait for a pullback near $78,000 to stabilize before acting. This is a hundred times safer than chasing above $80,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口