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Among all the major coins, $SOL actually carries the highest risk because its RSI of 89.66 is the highest; strong as it is, the sentiment is a bit overdone.
1. Today it surged directly above 100 and stayed there for a long time, then pulled back but still remained above the 5-day moving average. This pullback is quite healthy. However, the gains have already priced in expectations for several months ahead.
2. The anticipation for the Alpenglow consensus upgrade and the SIMD-0411 deflation proposal has been overextended. The saying "good news is bad news" applies to SOL.
3. The SGP-0003 burn proposal vote requires a 67% approval rate, which is a significant hurdle; it didn’t pass back in February.
My approach: continue holding the spot base position without adding more. If it rises to 120, I will reduce my position to trade the swing. Most likely, I think it won’t reach 120 and will fall afterward, but I won’t short it because I’m afraid of a short squeeze.This move by the U.S. Treasury has indeed eased the market's tense nerves. The TGA account balance is approaching one trillion USD, and the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases has increased from 20 billion USD per transaction to at least 40 billion USD. Putting these two numbers together essentially means using more direct means to suppress long-term yields. Although this is not a real rate cut or a direct liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve, for risk assets, as long as long-term US Treasury yields are suppressed, valuation pressure will be much less, allowing the market to breathe a sigh of relief. For a while, the market was shaped step by stroke through negotiation progress. Later, everyone hoped for the Fed's help every day, but the Fed never relented. Now it's better for the Ministry of Finance to personally draw the picture. The psychological implication is as strong as giving the market two consecutive doses of small-dose rate cuts. However, looking at it calmly, it is still at the stage of "usable" statements; the exact scale and how the funds will be allocated have not been fully implemented. If expectations are first maxed out and then crashed hard by reality, this reversal can be very painful for leveraged positions. Looking at the overall market capitalization, the total crypto market capitalization reached $2.77 trillion, a 24-hour increase of 3.1%, and a trading volume of $109 billion. Ethereum is indeed leading the pace this round, with a current price around $2491 and a trading volume of 20.25 billion. 2500 is the most direct threshold right now; only by holding firm can we reach 2600. However, BTC's market share still reaches 57.5%, indicating that funds have not yet truly flowed out on a large scale into altcoins, so the foundation for widespread rally is not yet establishedBitcoin breaks through $80,000—what will the market do next? Core market outlook: This round of rally is essentially a violent recovery driven by "short squeeze + macro bull news," not a broad bull market with fundamental reversal; In the short term, there is a high probability of high-level volatility and shakeout, and whether a new trend can start depends on ETF funds and Federal Reserve policy signals. 📈 Market-driven deanalysis, macro catalyst: The U.S. Treasury raised the single repurchase cap for 10–30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion, lowering long-term yields and weakening the dollar, triggering "depreciation trades," with funds flowing into Bitcoin and gold. Policy expectations: Trump met with crypto industry executives and urged Congress to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, strengthening regulatory expectations. It should be noted that the bill was still stalled in the Senate at the time of the incident, reflecting expectations rather than implementation. Bear stamp: The previous $61,000–67,000 box was flat for about 79 days, accumulating a large number of short positions. After the breakout, bears were forced to fill in and formed a spiral short squeeze, which is the core driver of this rapid rally. ETF inflows: Last week, 13 US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, the highest in nearly 10 months, prompting institutional funds to take over. ⚠️ Risks to Watch Out For: Short Squeeze ≠ Fundamental Reversal: The main driver of the first half of the rise was passive closing by short sellers, not large-scale new long entries. After the short squeeze, the subsequent trend depends on whether ETF and spot trading can continue. High volume shrinks and rises: Prices hit new highs but trading volume continues to shrink, indicating "no-volume short rallies" and low cost-effectiveness for chasing highs. Structural selling pressure is real: Str$BTC at $79,800, are you waiting for a pullback?
There's still some distance from the ultimate bull-bear dividing line at 83,000.
My judgment is: waiting for a shallow pullback (5-8%) is safer than chasing the high directly, but the risk of missing out while staying out of the market is also significant. Here's the breakdown for you:
· Why wait (short-term risk): The market is currently extremely greedy (index 83), and the short-term RSI is severely overbought. In the past 24 hours, liquidations reached 648 million, with shorts accounting for the vast majority, indicating that the upward momentum largely comes from "shorts being forced to cover," rather than new buying. Once the liquidation wave ends, the market is prone to a natural pullback. Additionally, on-chain data shows a large amount of profit-taking accumulated around the 81,000 range, creating considerable selling pressure.
· Why you might not get to wait (risk of missing out): The current core driver is the macro "dollar depreciation trade," which is a medium-to-long-term logic. If spot ETF inflows from institutions like BlackRock remain strong (net inflow of 1.92 billion last week), new funds can replace short covering, and the price may directly consolidate sideways to absorb selling pressure, then break through with a strong bullish candle, leaving no chance for a deep dip entry.
· How to operate specifically (reference strategy):
· If holding a position: continue holding, move stop loss up from 78,000 (breakeven protection), and play for a breakout at $83,000.
· If empty-handed and want to buy: don't wait for a deep dip, place partial buy orders at 79,000 (4-hour support level), and if filled, watch for a pullback near 78,000.
· Chasing a breakout: if volume increases and price holds above 80,000, target $83,000.
In short, chasing highs in the short term is not cost-effective, but it is recommended to keep a base position to avoid missing out. The ultimate decisive factor will be this week's PCE data and the Fed Chair's speech, which will determine whether this wave is a trend reversal or a temporary top. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Today I saw some data that I think is more worth paying attention to than the coin price.
Stablecoin payments initiated by AI Agents have already reached 8.7 million transactions in a single week, setting a new high for this year.
Many people's first reaction might be:
What’s the point of a payment worth just a few cents?
But I actually think this is the real point worth focusing on.
In the past few years, we've been discussing:
When will ordinary people start using Crypto extensively?
Now a new answer might be emerging:
AI.
AI Agents don’t need bank cards or manual confirmation.
They automatically purchase APIs, pay for computing power, and acquire data—scenarios naturally suited for stablecoins.
So now when I look at a payment project, I don’t just look at TVL, nor just the coin price.
I pay more attention to:
- Is there real transaction activity?
- Is there sustained growth in the number of payments?
- Are humans making payments, or have machines already started paying?
These data points are more valuable than daily price fluctuations.
Recently, I’ve been using Ave.ai to monitor on-chain stablecoin transactions, capital flows, and activity.
Many trends don’t appear suddenly.
They grow little by little within the data.
If AI Agents truly become the largest users on-chain, who do you think will be the biggest winners?
Stablecoins, payment protocols, or AI infrastructure? BTC relative strength comes first: While the storage sector in stocks is collapsing, BTC is approaching $80,000, and ETH has surpassed 2,500. Is this gap simply a sectoral difference, or is it a signal that funds are moving from stocks to crypto to reduce risk exposure? - Right after the US stock market opened, the Nasdaq fell 0.68%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged more than 4%. - Leading stocks in the storage sector dropped sharply: SanDisk -10%, Micron -7%, Seagate -8%. - At the same time, the crypto market saw BTC nearing $80,000 and ETH exceeding 2,500. - On a weekly basis, BTC ETF net inflows reached $1.9 billion, with short liquidations occurring and buyers gaining the upper hand. - The market is waiting for Federal Reserve officials' remarks on Friday, trying to determine short-term direction. The key point in this trend is that the storage sector and crypto moved in opposite directions. If AI infrastructure demand expectations had been priced into storage prices in advance, this sharp decline is below expectations Just bounced off 0.023, this wave of $BICO rebound really has some substance, but we need to be clear-headed.
This coin has dropped 99.9% over four years, and the recent doubling relies on "account abstraction + AI Agent" repackaged old ideas, combined with Upbit listing and contract short squeeze coordination. The story is a good one, the cooperation between Robinhood Chain and Ethereum Foundation is real, but the chips are too dirty to ignore. The top 100 wallets hold 96.6% of the coins, such concentration means the whales can pump it to any level they want. Back in May at the peak, team-related wallets just transferred 90 million coins to exchanges, then it immediately dropped. We've seen this kind of play too many times, it really causes ptsd.
Now the daily RSI has hit 85, the technicals have long gone crazy. The 0.04 to 0.05 range is a strong resistance zone; if you’re not ahead, it’s not recommended to chase, you might get stuck at the peak. If you really want to play, treat 1-2% of your total position as a lottery ticket, set a stop loss at 0.033, and consider adding only if it holds the 0.023 support on a pullback. Remember, this asset has shallow liquidity; when whales dump, it can double in nine days and halve in nine hours. Mainly watch the show, don’t get emotionally involved, only enter if you can afford to lose. 🍵#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Gold continues to strengthen! Will there be a pullback next?
This round of gold price strength is driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening dollar; continuous gold purchases by global central banks as support; combined with multiple factors such as geopolitical risk aversion and weakening dollar credit.
Looking at the crypto market, Bitcoin and gold share the same underlying macro logic:
Expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar reduce the holding cost of non-interest-bearing assets, causing funds to flow not only into gold but also into scarce non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin. This is an important backdrop for the recent strength in crypto markets.
But the two must be distinguished:
Gold has continuous buying support from global central banks and serves as a risk-averse ballast; Bitcoin and Ethereum are more high-elasticity risk assets, also benefiting from loose liquidity but with volatility far greater than gold. Once inflation rebounds or rate cut expectations are delayed and liquidity tightens, Bitcoin’s pullback tends to be much more severe than gold’s.
In the short term, gold has already shown technical overbought conditions, with risks of profit-taking and pullback; mapping this to crypto, even if the broader macro direction is favorable, it does not mean a mindless one-way rally—high levels still require caution for retracements and shakeouts.
In the long term, if the rate cut cycle materializes and concerns over dollar credit continue to ferment, the gold price base is expected to continue rising, which will also provide a relatively friendly environment for the crypto market. However, progress is never instantaneous and will be accompanied by repeated fluctuations.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 As I mentioned earlier, before Nvidia's financial report, major US semiconductor ETFs had net outflows of about $6.3 billion over the past three weeks. Compared to the continuous inflows from December last year to July this year, semiconductor trading has started to cool down significantly. Now, Goldman Sachs Prime Book data offers a different perspective. Over the past 20 trading days, Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage clients have remained net buyers of U.S. stocks overall, with technology stocks still net buying by about 0.7 standard deviations. But in the past five trading days, the direction has suddenly reversed. The overall selling volume of U.S. stocks has approached -2 standard deviations over the past year, and tech stocks have shifted from net buying to net selling of about -1.2 standard deviations. Prime Book mainly reflects the trading behavior of hedge funds and large institutions, so this is not the same batch of money as the semiconductor ETF capital flows seen earlier. Previously, ETF funds began to withdraw from semiconductors, and now hedge funds are also reducing their positions in tech stocks. Moreover, this time the sell-off was not focused solely on technology. Industrials, healthcare, real estate, and financials have all been selling in the past five days. Overall, U.S. stocks have shown clear risk contraction, with only a few sectors like energy still seeing capital buying. Therefore, the market environment Nvidia faces in this earnings report is quite different from previous ones. Previously, many funds continued to increase their holdings in AI and semiconductors before the earnings report, betting that Nvidia would once again outperform expectationsThis surge feels more like a "targeted liquidation" rather than a bull market signal.
$BTC has pushed from $60,000 all the way above $80,000. On the surface, it looks unstoppable, but in essence, it resembles a precise liquidity hunt—short positions are overly concentrated, and the bulls only need a small amount of capital to trigger a chain of liquidations, pushing the price up by squeeze rather than active buying.
From a cycle perspective, the true trend window indicated by historical halving patterns should be from the end of this year to early next year. This current rally seems somewhat abrupt on the timeline. Meanwhile, some long-term holders are gradually reducing their positions at these highs. If the players most familiar with the bottom cards are slowly exiting, then the sustainability of this rally is questionable.
The hotter the market gets, the more we need to calmly analyze the underlying structure. Not every big green candle signals a bull market; some are just byproducts of liquidation farce.Whale hedging, the value that Kaige mentioned before is still increasing!
Just now, the latest news: a certain whale has bet for 4 consecutive days that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. Today, they reversed to short the Nasdaq, playing a hedge by betting that the Fed won't raise rates in September as insurance, while simultaneously shorting the Nasdaq with 30x leverage. This insurance only has a 3.85% error margin. If the Nasdaq rises beyond that, the high-leverage short position will face liquidation. Simply put, this news means the whale is betting on two things: ① The Fed will not raise rates in September; ② The Nasdaq will fall afterward.
Kaige will briefly explain why he thinks the Fed won't raise rates in September and why he is bearish on the Nasdaq:
First, Kaige believes the Fed won't raise rates because the US national debt is as high as 40 trillion, coinciding with the midterm elections. The government doesn't want a crisis before the elections, so it took out 4 billion for bond buybacks as an emergency measure. But 4 billion compared to 40 trillion is just a drop in the bucket, only stabilizing the short-term situation without addressing the root cause. At this time, if the Fed raises rates again, the US debt pressure will directly burst the economy, so the Fed cannot raise rates. Moreover, before and after the US elections, there are too many uncertainties in tax and regulatory policies. Institutional investors and big players will choose to sell off chips and wait, causing pressure on the US stock market.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
This is just personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice!
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 This market rally looks lively but is actually quite subtle.
Bitcoin surged straight up to 80,000 dollars, the first time since mid-May. On the surface, it's because the U.S. Treasury is buying back long-term bonds, weakening the dollar, naturally pushing funds into hard assets. Plus, the ETF side is pouring tens of billions of dollars in daily, which does look intimidating. But the FOMO index has already soared to 83, which is a signal. Every time it reaches this level of heat, when retail investors rush in, it's often when the big players start counting their money.
Ethereum is still stuck around 2530, and until it truly holds above the 2500 mark, it can't be considered a reversal. Solana has really surged this time, from 74 to 102, up 35% in a month. Those quick enough have indeed profited, but pushing higher will require even more fuel.
OKB has risen above 120 dollars, and the CeFi sector followed with a rally, though the sustainability of this catch-up rally is questionable.
The most critical issue now is that this sharp rally has liquidated over 7 billion dollars worth of shorts. In other words, those betting on a drop have been brutally crushed, but whether the real buying volume has kept up remains a question. The next few days are packed with events: Nvidia's earnings report, PCE data, and Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. If any of these throw a wrench in the works, the people stepping in to catch the fall might be left waiting again. In times of extreme greed, it's all about who can run fastest.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 "A Whale Awakens After 4 Years, Liquidating 1,400 BTC: Once Resisted a $178 Million Unrealized Profit Drawdown, Why Cash Out $76.5 Million at the $80K Threshold?"
An ancient whale dormant for 4 years suddenly wakes up.
Bought 2,200 BTC at an average price of $45,024 four years ago, once resisted a $178 million unrealized profit drawdown and remained inactive for 4 years.
In the past 24 hours, as BTC broke through the $80K mark, it directly offloaded 1,400 BTC straight to exchanges.
Instantly realized $111.61 million, locking in $76.5 million pure profit, leaving only 800 BTC as the base holding in the account.
Taking advantage of the peak liquidity from spot ETF inflows of $1.92 billion in a single week, the whale completed a high-position escape with extremely low slippage. $BTC $BTC Is $58,000 the bottom? The whale "first set 10 big goals" and shared his understanding
The logic is very interesting, but what really deserves attention is Strategy's next move. The company raised about $2 billion last week but did not buy BTC for a whole week, meanwhile increasing its USD reserves to $5.1 billion and establishing a $1.59 billion "USD Cash" pool; currently holding about 840,400 BTC with an average cost of about $75,385.
My judgment: Strategy resuming continuous BTC purchases could indeed become an important bullish confirmation signal, but it is definitely not a buy button. If BTC holds above $80,000 and Strategy resumes weekly accumulation, it indicates institutional risk appetite is truly back; if it continues hoarding cash, it means the area above 80K still needs to be digested. Strategically, do not chase highs, observe the 76,000–78,000 pullback, and add positions after volume-backed stabilization above 80,000. Once Saylor buys, the market might really "break the cup as a signal." #SamsungPayoutDisappoints
This is not a capital return, but an "entry ticket to the AI race"
When Samsung announced a shareholder return plan of up to $80 billion, and at the same time promised to significantly increase semiconductor capital expenditure, with HBM and chip foundry becoming the core of spending — what we are witnessing is not a simple shareholder return, but Samsung's official declaration of war in the "AI race."
Breaking down Samsung's plan:
· Shareholder return: about $50 billion (buybacks + special dividends)
· Capital expenditure: about $30 billion for semiconductors (HBM, foundry, advanced packaging)
Core logic: Samsung is returning cash to shareholders while fully catching up with SK Hynix's leading position in the HBM market. If Samsung successfully expands HBM supply, it will alleviate AI chip bottlenecks and benefit the entire AI ecosystem.
Mapping to the crypto market: Increased HBM supply → increased GPU supply → lower AI computing costs → benefits all AI projects (including DePIN and AI agents).
Samsung's $80 billion payout, your call —
A. Buy Korean semiconductor ETFs
B. Position in AI/DePIN tokens (Render, IO.net)
C. Wait and see, until capital expenditure translates into actual capacity
👇 Type your letter in the comments!#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Good evening everyone!
$BTC BTC
Participants are mainly large institutions, ETF funds, and long-term whales, representing the institutional main battlefield of the crypto market. ETF funds are allocation capital with low trading frequency, focusing more on macro and policy trends over months, rarely engaging in short-term speculation. Retail investors participate but do not control pricing power.
Institutional funds seek certainty, avoid chasing high-risk ecosystems, and prioritize compliance, regulatory acceptance, and asset allocation logic. This results in BTC’s characteristic: once a trend forms, it is not easily reversed, but short-term explosive rallies are rare. When bearish news arrives, institutions won’t dump their base positions recklessly; instead, leveraged retail investors exit, and corrections mostly manifest as volatile consolidations. The downside is that without speculative capital support, relative returns may be surpassed by public chain tokens, and the market ceiling depends on the scale of incremental institutional inflows.
$ETH ETH
Participant structure is clearly layered: some are mid-to-small institutions and ETF funds following BTC, others are DeFi, L2 ecosystem participants, whales, plus a large amount of derivatives trading capital. Institutions treat it as a crypto growth asset, aiming to capture macro dividends while speculating on ecosystem growth.
Divergent capital demands cause frequent market tug-of-war. Institutions worry about SEC securities classification risks and dare not hold heavy positions like BTC; local ecosystem funds speculate on L2 and RWA narratives. When ecosystem narratives heat up and speculative capital floods in, the ETH/BTC ratio rises; once regulatory pressure tightens, institutional funds quickly contract, leaving only ecosystem funds to support it, relatively weakening against the broader market. It is the battleground between institutional and local crypto capital.
$SOL SOL
Institutional base positions are very limited; the market is mainly dominated by trading funds, short-term whales, retail investors, and MEME speculative capital. The vast majority of funds target short-term price differences, with very few making multi-year allocations.
Lack of stable institutional capital as a safety cushion is the core feature. During uptrends, short-term hot money floods in, creating the strongest market momentum; once sentiment weakens, without long-term capital to catch the fall, funds collectively flee, causing declines faster and deeper than BTC and ETH. Even if ecosystem data looks good, once speculative capital withdraws, the price drops sharply. Its market nature is to profit from rising risk appetite, not institutional allocation.
Summary: BTC is dominated by institutional allocation; ETH is a contest between institutional and ecosystem funds; SOL is mainly driven by short-term speculative capital. Currently, institutional funds are mainly concentrated in BTC, ETH is in exploratory positioning, and SOL has yet to gain large-scale institutional recognition, with risks increasing stepwise. Spot ETFs have been strong this week, but looking from the beginning of the year, these products have still seen a net outflow overall. The weekly inflow and the net amount for the year are in opposite directions, which clearly shows that capital is not entering linearly but in phases. It's too early to say "institutions are back" based on one week's data, and it's also biased to say "no one wants it" based on the full year's data. $BTC #BTC #crypto When looking at the 11% profit of short-term holders and the 18.5% profit of long-term holders together, a contradiction emerges: the later entrants earn less but are more likely to exit first during volatility. The narrow profit gap between new and old chips indicates that the market has not yet formed a stable "profit layer," making rebounds fragile under this structure. $BTC #BTC #加密The US federal debt has reached $40 trillion, and this kind of macro figure is often used in Bitcoin's long-term narrative. Debt expansion does weaken the purchasing power of fiat currency in the storyline, but between the narrative and the price lie liquidity, interest rates, and regulation. The long-term logic holds true but doesn't mean short-term price will rise; you need to distinguish the time scale before using it as a position rationale. $BTC #BTC #crypto#IranOilRiskEscalates
Oil is becoming a Fed problem again. Brent jumped 6.4% last week as tougher Iran sanctions and threats to shipping routes raised supply fears. If crude and diesel stay elevated, higher transport costs can feed directly into inflation just as markets hope price pressures are cooling. That's where crypto enters the story. A real energy shock could push yields and the dollar higher, helping gold while testing BTC's inflation-hedge narrative. Watch oil, then watch rates.After raising $2 billion in preferred shares, Strategy has set aside a $1.6 billion cash pool while maintaining a pause on buying Bitcoin. Raising funds while not buying is clearly different from the previous continuous buying spree. A company pausing does not mean a reversal in treasury needs, but at least it indicates the end of the "blind accumulation" phase; they are waiting for a more comfortable position. $BTC #BTC #cryptoThe moderate strengthening of Bitcoin and Ethereum is setting a subtle tone for the current market. BTC once touched $79,500, and ETH also rose above $2,500, suggesting the market is warming up. However, looking at the broader altcoin world reveals a different picture: tokens like H, LAB, KAITO, BEAT, and SNDK remain weak, with price performance sharply contrasting mainstream assets. This divergence is not accidental but a reflection of increasingly cautious capital sentiment. 📉 From the perspective of capital flows, market preferences have become quite clear. In the past week, spot ETFs for BTC and ETH attracted a combined net inflow of about $2.6 billion, a figure that itself tells a story: funds are concentrating on top-tier assets with greater certainty. In contrast, the altcoin market faces multiple challenges such as thin liquidity, insufficient spot buying, and supply pressure on certain tokens. It's not that all projects lack stories, but the current environment does not support a broad-based narrative expansion. In this context, rather than the market brewing a comprehensive altcoin season, capital is undergoing a selective rotation. Top-tier assets continue to benefit due to ample liquidity and clear narratives, while altcoins mostly present structural opportunities rather than an overall market rally. For observers, what truly matters is not whether the market can keep rising, but which sectors can still demonstrate independent fundamental support amid tightening capital preferences. WhenLong-term holders' profit levels have risen from near breakeven to 18.5%. The numbers look like they're improving, but compared to historical cycles where long-term holdings often doubled, this profit can only be considered just catching a breath. Old holders haven't reached a comfortable zone yet, indicating this round of recovery is far from a frenzy stage. $BTC #BTC #cryptoOn-chain data shows that the cost basis for short-term holders is about $68,700, and this group currently has an unrealized profit of around 11%. New entrants have finally returned to profitability, but an 11% gain is thin and cannot withstand a significant pullback. Thin-profit positions are the easiest to be shaken out by volatility, which is why standing above the cost line does not mean holding firm. $BTC #BTC #cryptoThis week, IBIT alone absorbed about $1.33 billion, accounting for the majority of the total market inflow. High concentration in a single product is both a good thing and a warning: the more funds gather in top products, the easier the liquidity, but once a major redemption occurs in a weighted product, its impact on the market will be amplified. Look at the overall market for diversification, and focus on risk when concentrated. $BTC #BTC #crypto As of the week of August 21, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92 billion, marking the strongest single week since last October. The capital inflow indicates that institutional channel demand still exists, but net inflow is the net amount after offsetting buys and sells, so it cannot be directly interpreted as an equal amount of new money entering the market. When looking at ETFs, separating "net subscriptions" and "portfolio market value increase" leads to much more reliable conclusions. $BTC #BTC #crypto Since August, Bitcoin has risen about 20%, making it one of the best-performing Augusts since 2017. A strong single month can easily make people mistake momentum for a trend, but historically, the "best month" doesn't necessarily lead to further gains. Monthly returns are results that have already happened, not a guarantee for the next month. There is still a period of pullback and verification between feeling strong and confirming strength. $BTC #BTC #cryptoThe market these days has shifted people from not daring to buy directly to fearing missing out. $BTC was still fluctuating around over $60,000 last week, but today it has reached a high of $81,104, with a nearly 15% increase in the past 7 days. The pace is so fast that the chasing sentiment is quite normal, but $80,000 is not a door that can be pushed open without resistance. After the price surged, it fell back to around $79,300, indicating that there are quite a few sell orders between $80,000 and $81,100. People previously trapped want to exit, and short-term bottom-fishers are also taking profits. The most important time to watch on August 26 is 20:30 Beijing time. The US will simultaneously release July PCE, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, and corporate profits data. With several data points coming together, the first minute's candlestick is expected to be quite volatile. The market expects July core PCE to be about 3.3% year-over-year, similar to June; the initial Q2 GDP estimate is only 1.5%. The crypto community's desired outcome is somewhat conflicted: inflation ideally continues to decline, but the economy cannot deteriorate enough to raise recession concerns. If core PCE is below 3.3% and GDP is not significantly revised upward, the urgency for rate hikes will decrease, making it easier for BTC to retest $81,100. However, if inflation exceeds expectations and GDP is revised upward, the market will reassess September policy; with US Treasury yields and the dollar rising, risk assets usually suffer. Tomorrow, BTC will first focus on the $78,000 to $80,000 range. If the data can be digested here without immediate rallying, it is not weak; breaking above $81,100 again, then later#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
BTC broke through the $80,000 mark, can it hold the new level?
BTC surged intraday, piercing the $80,000 integer level, reaching a high near 81,200. Market sentiment instantly exploded, and almost the entire network was shouting for new highs. But honestly, I am more cautious now. The biggest dilemma is whether this new level can truly hold.
First, looking at the support side: Spot ETFs saw continuous large net purchases last week, the US dollar index weakened combined with a relatively loose macro capital environment, plus a large number of shorts were forcibly liquidated, passive buying formed short-term momentum, and the bullish atmosphere is indeed dominant. Once the $80,000 level is broken, follow-up orders will quickly flood in, further amplifying sentiment.
However, concerns are equally glaring—the recent sharp rise largely depends on leveraged forced cover, not solid spot capital steadily building positions. The current greed index has soared to an extreme, and the scale of unrealized profits accumulated at high levels is considerable. Once concentrated profit-taking is triggered, selling pressure will rapidly intensify. Moreover, historical volume above $80,000 is thin, so selling pressure will only increase step by step. If subsequent buying power cannot keep up, the probability of a sharp rise followed by a sharp fall is not low.
As an ordinary participant, I will not impulsively chase orders now. Whether it can hold $80,000 depends on two core points: first, whether ETF funds maintain continuous net inflows; second, whether trading volume on the market can expand synchronously. If it only momentarily breaks through without effective volume support, a pullback to test lower support is highly likely.
My approach is conservative: continue holding the base position and observe, neither adding more nor shorting for now. If volume expands and it holds above 81,500, then consider lightly trying to go long; if the rally weakens and starts to falter, then reduce positions opportunistically to preempt correction risks.
$BTC
$OKB
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Over the past week, the crypto derivatives market has witnessed one of the most brutal short squeezes in nearly two years.
Data from across the network shows that alongside Bitcoin breaking $80,000 and Ethereum's strong rebound, the weekly short liquidation amount reached an astonishing $7.2 billion. Meanwhile, the combined net inflow into US spot BTC and ETH ETFs hit $2.6 billion in a single week, marking the largest weekly capital inflow since October 2025.
The underlying mechanism behind this violent surge is extremely ruthless. During the prior narrow-range oscillation, a large amount of leveraged funds habitually piled up shorts mindlessly near resistance levels, causing futures rates to remain in negative territory for a long time and creating an extremely crowded short position.
When Wall Street spot ETFs aggressively swept the market with $2.6 billion in a single week, the already thin spot sell depth on exchanges was instantly breached. Even a slight price break triggered passive stop losses among shorts, and forced market buy liquidations further pushed prices up, directly triggering a domino-style cascade.
Although this short squeeze rally was fierce, it also had its fragility: once the short fuel is completely exhausted, the market must rely purely on genuine new spot buying to sustain itself. In the dense turnover zone above $80,000, be cautious of a sharp shakeout following the exhaustion of short squeeze momentum.
In this big rally, did you capture the short squeeze profits on-site, or were you shaken out at the high levels?
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Today is a critical week for the US stock market. $xNVDA Nvidia will report earnings tomorrow, and the storage chain is still bleeding.
First, about NVDA: On August 24, it closed at 208.48, down 2.91%. It dropped from 215 to 207, hitting 207.25 intraday. The market is reducing positions to avoid risk before the earnings report, which is normal. But it slightly rose to 208.90 after hours, indicating the selling pressure isn't that severe. The 52-week range is 164-236, currently in the lower-middle part. Forward PE is 20.77, TTM PE is 31.93. For a company with TTM revenue of 253.4 billion +71% and net profit of 159.6 billion +108%, this is not expensive. 62 analysts rate it as Strong Buy with a target price of 304, implying 46% upside.
Tomorrow's earnings report is the biggest event this week. If Blackwell's shipment volume and data center revenue exceed expectations, the 210-220 range will be directly broken. If it's just in line, the "good news already priced in" scenario might repeat.
Now about the storage chain. $xSNDK SanDisk continues to plunge 6.45%, closing at 1493, after-hours at 1473. It has retraced 36% from the high of 2354. Samsung's 8.7% plunge last week still reverberates, and the entire storage sector is shrouded in fear of a "cycle peak." But data shows: SanDisk's TTM revenue is 20.2 billion +175%, net profit 11.4 billion, Forward PE only 6.97. This valuation suggests the market is pricing in a NAND cycle crash in 2027. The U.S. fiscal deficit continues to worsen, with the federal debt exceeding $40 trillion. The Treasury Department has urgently increased long-term Treasury repurchases in an attempt to stabilize the bond market. However, market interpretations differ completely: funds are selling off the dollar and flowing into gold and Bitcoin, a classic currency depreciation trade is making a comeback, yet long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain stubbornly high. 1. Treasury action: repurchase limit doubled, signaling easing The U.S. Treasury announced it will raise the single repurchase limit for long-term Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and plans to use general account funds to increase operations, effective September 9. The background is very severe: the U.S. monthly budget deficit hit a five-year high in July, the total federal debt surpassed $40 trillion, and the 30-year Treasury yield once approached 5.34%, a nearly 20-year high. The market focus is not on the repurchase scale itself, but on the policy signal: the Treasury is effectively releasing liquidity, seen by the market as a "mini easing," which instead intensifies expectations of dollar depreciation. 2. Asset performance divergence: safe-haven assets rally, U.S. Treasuries remain under pressure 1. Gold and Bitcoin show strong momentum - Gold rose to a three-month high, with a weekly gain of over 5%, and August is expected to record the largest monthly gain since 1999, rising for five consecutive weeks; - Bitcoin surged 22% in three days, the largest three-day gain since 2023, briefly touching $80,000, a new high since May; - The U.S. dollar index fell to a three-month low, weakening three out of four weeks, with the dollar under continuous pressure. 2. The U.S. Treasury market is not responding favorably After the repurchase was implemented,In March 2024, Bitcoin hit a historic high, breaking 74,000. In December 2024, Bitcoin continued to reach new highs, breaking 100,000. In October 2015, Bitcoin still reached new highs, breaking 120,000. The miracle of Bitcoin continuously breaking historic highs is always accompanied by a main narrative: ETFs, strategic reserves, institutionalization, and so on. This also applies to altcoins. A good narrative can attract buying interest, pushing prices up, attracting more buyers, like a bulldozer pushing prices higher and higher, even reaching historic highs. This is also the source of 10x and 100x coins; once you hit the mark, you can turn your fortunes around. However, many people have a misconception that if they find the narrative for the next bull market early and position themselves during the bear market, the bull market will surge. This is impossible in reality because any main narrative can only be confirmed after the bull market ends and cannot be predicted in advance. After reading the following cases, you will understand: In the 2022 bear market, LUNA collapsed, Three Arrows Capital went bankrupt, FTX exploded, Bitcoin dropped more than 70%, falling from 69,000 all the way down to a low of 15,500. Institutions collapsed one after another, GameFi and NFT narratives completely died out. ETH fell from 4,900 to 880, Solana dropped from 260 to 8, Uni dropped from 42 to 3.3, completely beyond expectations. Looking back then, the entire industry was full of scams and failures. The so-called technological innovations were also美股科技在挨打，比特币却快摸到八万了，这种撕裂感真的很奇妙。 你有没有想过，当传统市场的钱在夺路而逃时，它到底躲进了哪里？ 昨晚看盘的时候，我盯着屏幕愣了几秒。美股那边，纳指跌了0.68%，费城半导体指数更是直接重挫超4%。存储芯片板块堪称惨案现场：SanDisk跌了10%，美光跌7%，希捷跌8%。整个行业像被抽走了地基，一路下坠。 但加密这边完全是另一部剧本。BTC稳步逼近80000美元，ETH也站上了2500。过去一周ETF净流入高达19亿美元，空头被反复清算，买方牢牢掌控着局面。 市场到底在交易什么？我理解这背后其实是资金在重新选择战场。传统科技股承载了太多加息预期的重量，而加密资产经过前期的充分洗盘，反而成了承接这些溢出资金的容器。尤其值得留意的是，这轮上涨不是散户FOMO推动的，而是通过ETF通道流入的机构型资金，它们更像是配置需求而非投机冲动。 一个容易被忽略的细节是，存储芯片的暴跌与加密的强势发生在同一时间窗口。这说明资金不是简单地从美股撤出观望，而是确实在寻找新的栖息地。BTC在这里扮演了类似避风港的角色，它的波动率属性反而成了吸引资金的理由。 不过我也在提醒自己，短期Last Friday, the Solana mainnet successfully completed an upgrade, reducing its network Target Slot Time from 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds. Solana's block production speed increased by 12.5% overnight. This means faster transaction confirmations, higher network throughput, and more extreme performance support for all applications built on it. Following the news, the price of the SOL token surged, breaking through the $100 mark strongly, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 8% at one point. The next stop in the performance race Their ultimate goal is the staggering 200 milliseconds. This speed boost, along with a future major upgrade called "Alpenglow" (which aims to reduce the transaction "final confirmation time" from the current approximately 12.8 seconds to an astonishing 100-150 milliseconds), is continuously pushing the "ceiling" of public chain performance higher and higher. This puts sustained and profound pressure on Ethereum's L2 ecosystem. For a long time, Ethereum has relied on L2s (such as Arbitrum, Optimism) to solve its mainnet congestion and high fees. This "modular" narrative is indeed effective, but its "fragmented" user experience has always been criticized. User assets are scattered across different L2s, making cross-chain operations cumbersome and risky. Solana, on the other hand, is taking a "monolithic integrated chain" path: hosting all applications on a unified, high-performance base layer. This seamless experience is especially beneficial for gaming, DePI thought about how $BTC consolidated sideways for two weeks, during which Bitcoin miners dumped 25,000 $BTC in one week, and Strategy also sold several thousand coins.
But despite such heavy selling, the price didn't drop. Then last Wednesday, four institutional brands bought just 24,000 coins, pushing the price from 63,000 directly up to 80,000.
Strategy is still the executive director. From the boss's perspective, selling around 63,000 at that time might have been testing the bottom pressure.
Looking back, selling so much without market fluctuation suggests that miners and Strategy tested the bottom pressure of $BTC.
So this rally started very quickly. If Strategy buys $BTC again around 80,000, it could be the trigger for a breakout to 100,000-120,000. Pay close attention to the moves of these institutions this week.
$BTC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $MU, after experiencing a deep correction from $1036 down to $889, has returned to around $932, with the price exactly stuck between the lower support at $894 and the upper moving average resistance.
The volume of 220,000 accompanying the price pullback has slightly increased, indicating that a small amount of capital in the market is attempting to catch the dip, but the follow-up strength is clearly weaker than other stocks in the same sector.
Off-market capital flows are changing, with leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung and Hynix seeing a combined net outflow of nearly $1 billion in a single month; Asian high-leverage funds are withdrawing and shifting toward the US large-cap index.
The retreat of overseas semiconductor leveraged funds corresponds with the weak rebound in the US stock storage sector, as the contraction of risk appetite suppresses momentum to follow the rise.
If the buying volume can hold above the EMA55 at $948, the rebound structure is expected to extend to the $966 to $980 range.
If the bulls cannot hold the key level at $930, deleveraging selling pressure will push the price to test the $894 support level again.
When Asia-Pacific chip leveraged funds stop net outflows and stabilize with replenishment, the independent weak judgment on Micron needs to be revised.
The most important variable to watch in the coming days is whether the $930 defense line can withstand the liquidity withdrawal during the capital shift toward the large-cap index.
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #阿里配售获超额认购，高管增持能否稳住信心？After Bitcoin breaks above the 50-week moving average, how long can the bull market last? The 50-week moving average is a confirmation signal for the end of a bear market, but it does not directly correspond to the remaining duration of the bull market. It only indicates that the cycle bottom is likely complete, not that a relentless one-way surge will immediately begin.
Historically, after the weekly close stabilizes above the 50-week moving average, a full bull market generally continues for another 12-18 months, but this period includes multiple deep corrections and sideways consolidations; it is not a continuous rise. This signal has a historical success rate of about 85%, but false breakouts do exist—for example, in 2021-2022, the price rose above it and then reverted to a bear market.
The bull market's end is not determined by the 50-week moving average; the true end signal is a valid weekly breakdown below the 50-week moving average. Even after confirming the bottom, short-term surges with overbought conditions like a 25% increase over 7 days often lead to a correction and consolidation before resuming medium- to long-term upward movement.
At the same time, halving cycles, ETF capital, macro interest rates, and regulatory policies all influence market rhythm, which can lengthen or shorten the bull market cycle.
$BTC #AIEarningsWatch
AI earnings are about to test whether the boom can move beyond infrastructure. Nvidia and Marvell will show if compute demand still has momentum, while Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta need to prove AI features can generate real software revenue. That's the split I'm watching. If hardware stays hot but software lags, AI monetization remains narrow. If both deliver, the bull case gets much broader and today's tech valuations become easier to defend.The US debt storm is intensifying, three men simultaneously botch the situation, and America's credibility collapses
The US debt storm sweeping the global financial markets is now escalating. US Treasury Secretary Yellen has intervened twice to stabilize the market, announcing an increase in the limit for US debt repurchases, but this rescue has backfired, exposing her vulnerabilities. After a short-term drop, US Treasury yields have risen again and again; the 10-year Treasury yield has now returned to 4.7.
So what exactly is going on with US debt now? Could it be that the massive $40 trillion debt is simply unpayable? There is a market narrative that the so-called crisis in the US debt market is caused by the stock just breaking through $40 trillion, but that is not true at all. The US debt market has gradually reached $40 trillion, and the market has long been aware of this. The current situation is that Treasury yields have suddenly surged sharply within the past week, indicating that this is not caused by the debt stock itself.
What happened in the past week? The problem lies with three men: Trump, Federal Reserve Chair Powell, and Treasury Secretary Yellen. These three men simultaneously botched the situation, losing America's credibility.
First is Trump, who represents US fiscal discipline. At the start of his term, he pledged to keep the fiscal deficit within 3% of GDP. However, a year and a half later, the deficit under his watch has soared to 6%, double his plan. Can the market still trust him to control the overall debt ceiling? Even more worrying is that Trump, to secure votes for the midterm elections, has delayed renewing the peace agreement in the Middle East, pushing oil prices back above $84. Rising oil prices drive US inflation higher, which in turn causes bond prices to fall further. Additionally, Trump has started a tariff war with Canada, supposedly to increase US tariff revenue and thus add some credit to US debt. But in reality, the penalties imposed on Canada amount to only $20 billion, while US-Canada trade totals $1.5 trillion, making this more political theater than economically beneficial. It also disrupts US residents' inflation expectations caused by future tariffs. So Trump's first move was a bad play.
At the end of last month, Federal Reserve Chair Powell made a controversial statement at the July FOMC meeting, saying the Fed does not need to raise interest rates because the rise in bond market yields is equivalent to a rate hike. This effectively shifts all Fed responsibility onto the market. No matter how reporters pressed him for forward guidance, he deflected with a single line, refusing to provide it and saying the next steps depend on conclusions from five working groups. This implies the Fed Chair is washing his hands of responsibility, and the Fed may rely on working groups to trigger rate cuts rather than hikes, which worries the bond market most afraid of inflation, making Powell appear weak.
The third failure is Treasury Secretary Yellen, in whom I had high hopes. As CFO of the Soros Fund, she is a veteran of global financial markets, but this time she also stumbled badly. Starting from late August when she intervened to rescue the yen, she began to act strangely. First, she wrote a note in a hotel saying to buy $5-10 billion of yen and deliberately showed the note to reporters, trying to intimidate the market without actually deploying funds, but the market was not convinced. Then she sold euros to buy yen without notifying the ECB, effectively stabbing them in the back. This intervention was the first time in nearly 20 years the US Treasury stepped in to support the yen, surprising the forex market. Could the Bank of Japan's selling of some US debt to rescue the yen have made US debt so dangerous that even Yellen had to rush in to put out fires? This triggered panic about US debt, causing a stampede, which explains why the US bond market has been relentlessly hammered by massive funds over the past week.
In response to this sell-off, Yellen made another blunder. As Treasury Secretary, she should issue US debt with forecasting, direction, and discipline. But this time, to save long-term US debt, she suddenly announced a temporary increase in repurchase limits to $4 billion. The market then thinks: if you use $4 billion today to rescue the market but fail, will you use $40 billion tomorrow, $400 billion the day after? Is a quantitative easing flood on the way? This reveals Yellen's hand clearly.
In short, Trump, Powell, and Yellen are all out of tricks, with no substantive measures to save the US economy or finances. They are all just talking and playing small games. For the US bond market, known for its rigor and institutional investors, such small games are meaningless. The repeated US rescue attempts have all failed, and now everyone understands why.
So how much worse will this US debt storm get? We already see the US stock market entering a correction, while gold is surging. As long as the US debt problem remains unresolved, global tech stocks will struggle to recover—not just US stocks but also China's tech sector. The biggest beneficiaries now are alternatives to the US dollar, whether gold or Bitcoin, which will continue to enjoy this storm.
A possible turning point this week is tomorrow (Wednesday), when the July PCE price index is released. The PCE index is currently the only data the US can control, held by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics director. If he can present data showing inflation cooling rapidly, could that save Treasury repurchase funds and reduce Trump's empty talk? I believe the market is hopeful.
Beyond Wednesday, the bigger event is Friday's Federal Reserve Jackson Hole global central bank meeting. This meeting offers Powell a chance to redeem himself. Can he stand up like a man, stop hiding behind the five working groups, and with his own shoulders tell the market: inflation is coming, don't be afraid, even if inflation rises, I will aggressively raise rates, I will take responsibility for the Fed and bear the burden? Only then will the market believe him.
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks. Analysis of the US-Iran situation on August 25: Short-term positive developments in the US-Iran situation, energy market will be tested by price votes. Whether the positive trend will last depends on future observation points! From yesterday until now, there are several key pieces of news to note: 1. Iran's Foreign Ministry denied receiving an official invitation to the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement, clarifying that it was only an informal contact and treating Iran's accession as a downgrade. 2. Another unknown attack on an oil tanker in the Red Sea caused a deck fire. The facts prove that the feasibility of using the Strait of Hormuz as an alternative route is not high. The Houthis later admitted to the attack. 3. Pakistan's military leader No. 1 Munir discussed a new plan in Tehran. The main theme of the plan is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume US-Iran negotiations. Key figures in regional regulators have begun to clarify their mediation stance, which is a positive signal for the US-Iran situation. Iran subsequently responded without explicitly rejecting the new proposal, pledging to continue implementing the June U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding on the condition that the U.S. honors its commitments. 4. Oman's Foreign Minister visited Tehran, and the Omani Foreign Minister followed Munir for his visit. Combined with Munir's new proposal, this is seen as a further positive signal. 5. After U.S. Secretary of Defense Hagueseth made remarks about economic sanctions against Besent, he indicated that continued military strikes could not be ruled out. In my view, Bescent's comments were soft, so the Department of Defense responded by giving the U.S. a tough diplomatic stance. 6. After Munir concluded his visit to Tehran, Pakistan's Interior Minister stated that the visit had made "significant progress," but according to current open-source informationSOL's bullishness signifies more than just surface-level leadership. How much have ETF inflows and on-chain activity actually been reflected in the price? As SOL has recently led the rally, market attention is shifting back to altcoins. On the surface, SOL's strength stands out, but looking at the actual price structure, a significant portion of expectations is already priced in. The capital inflows from the SOL ETF, on-chain upgrades, and ecosystem activation support the medium-term rationale, but the higher average purchase price after consecutive gains and concentrated holding structure could increase volatility during corrections. Technically, the position has shifted from a recovery phase to a consolidation phase, but maintaining the previous breakout zone is key. Even if a correction occurs, if it happens with declining volume, it can be seen as a healthy absorption process; however, a sharp drop accompanied by volume signals profit-taking selling pressure. DOGE has escaped weakness and entered a sideways consolidation phase in line with the meme coin sector's recovery. However, it is more sentiment-dependent than SOL, so after breaking the short-term resistance,Although market sentiment has clearly improved, the current position is not entirely worry-free. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is facing three key risk signals: 1. Historical repetition of previous high resistance zones Currently, Bitcoin's price is close to the previous high of $82,800. Historical experience shows that when prices approach previous highs, the market often exhibits two behavioral patterns: one is a high-volume breakout and a stabilization, starting a new main rally; the other is a false breakout followed by a rapid pullback, forming a bull trap. From November 2025 to January 2026, Bitcoin once plunged from about $90,000 to nearly $60,000 in a similar structure, with a slow upward fluctuation and a lack of explosive momentum as a "counter-trend rebound." 2. The seasonal curse of August Historically, August was one of Bitcoin's weakest months of the year. CryptoRank data shows that August's historical median change was -7.87%, with an average return of only -0.64%, making it one of only two months with negative trends throughout the year. Since 2022, monthly candlestick closes in August have almost become the norm. This means that even if the current trend is upward, the probability of a pullback for the remainder of August remains significantly higher than in other months. 3. Structural Uncertainty in Capital Rotation The phenomenon of capital diverting in the first half of 2026 is worth watching. Since April, US gold and Bitcoin ETFs have seen a combined net outflow of about $12 billion, while semiconductor ETFs attracted over $20 billion in net inflows during the same period. June spot Bitcoin$SLX Today's operation record. I invested about 800U this morning to buy SLX tokens.
The main reasons for buying this token are as follows:
1. The trading volume is decent.
2. It is a newly listed coin, currently declining from its peak.
3. At the bottom, the 4-hour chart shows at least 4 to 5 candles without further dips.
4. The fundamentals are also good; it is a protocol that has been running on the SOL chain for over a year.
Based on these points, I think this is a good choice. Since the overall market is at a high level, I bought about 800U worth, and the current profit is about 500 RMB. This is the main operation for today. So, I think the two main reflections you gave me are:
1. Grasp the principles of buying these small coins, which are the three main points mentioned above.
2. Usually pay more attention and keep watching; persistence will bring results.
Regarding today's profit situation:
The profit reached its peak this morning, about 500 RMB. In the afternoon, some profit was given back, so I also reflected on this second level: In the afternoon, I chased a $OKB OKB at a high point. I saw it heading towards 120 and reaching the previous high of 120. I thought it would break 120 and go higher, at least reaching around 123 or 124. But it didn’t. Due to the overall market decline, the fundamentals of the coin didn’t change, but the price dropped continuously. I bought in at around 118, and now it’s around 114, with a loss of about three points. Of course, my position wasn’t large, about 800U, so I lost about 200 RMB. Therefore, today's total profit is about 300 RMB.
From this operation, I also reflected: never chase highs, especially for bigger coins. Big coins rarely surge crazily; small coins might have a 2-3 point increase, and if you enter quickly, you can catch a wave. But big coins rarely jump more than ten points at once, which is very rare. So when you see a 4-5 point increase, you need to be cautious. Even if it continues to rise, the profit is very low, and most of the time it’s a swing trade, so the price will likely drop after you enter. Therefore, don’t chase highs, especially not with big coins.
Another point, to avoid chasing highs, watch the coin’s trend:
1. Grasp the entry timing: only enter when it has an upward trend and is not in a crazy surge. If you want to enter, do it promptly; if not, decisively give up the opportunity.
2. Maintain a decisive and ruthless trading style: once you see a clear upward trend and strong performance, enter decisively.
If you hesitate, the result will be like mine today. After one candle breaks through, your hormones peak, and you chase in. After chasing, you likely face losses like today.
Currently, I have not sold or stopped loss because my position is small, and I see it has been consolidating around 114 for a long time.Don’t get too carried away by this rally yet. 🚨 The new Iran sanctions are set to be revealed at 2 AM US time, and hotter-than-expected measures could escalate Hormuz risks, pushing oil and safe-haven demand higher. BTC and ETH could see a sharp spike followed by a pullback.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash $ETH broke 2500 but then fell back again, RSI 88.56 is even stronger than $BTC, and at this level, I'm starting to feel a bit of fear of heights.
1. It has risen 30% in the past few days, trampling all resistance levels from the second half of last year underfoot.
Today’s high was 2533, right near the peak from early 2025, with both technical and psychological pressure at this point.
2. RSI 88.56 is definitely in the overbought zone, but more importantly, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has clearly weakened, making excess returns hard to achieve.
3. The news is mixed: Fidelity’s staking application is a real positive, but the delay of Glamsterdam from Q3 to Q4 is still brewing, so bullish expectations aren’t that stable.
4. The only bright spot is institutions: ETFs are quietly accumulating, and this rally is institution-driven.
My plan: I intend to reduce spot holdings on the rally, but I won’t consider shorting because the short squeeze trend is too obvious and it’s easy to get targeted.The most dangerous moment in the market is not when everyone is bearish.
It's when everyone thinks "this time is different."
$BTC has returned to $80,000, with data looking textbook-level bullish signals.
But the more textbook it looks, the more it reminds people of the things that textbooks don't mention.
The data looks so good it makes you want to shout that the bull market is back.
But what really makes me anxious is not a weak market.
It's that this script looks too much like the end of 2022.
Strong price, inflows hitting new highs, shorts being massively liquidated.
Three indicators improving simultaneously.
But the problem is: these indicators can prove a rebound is happening, but they can't prove the trend has reversed.
On-chain data isn't that reassuring.
Whales are buying, but cautiously, without that "blind charge" aggression.
The daily RSI is already at 82; the last time it was this hot was near the historical high in October last year.
Price is strong, capital is strong, but the quality of buying and the heat of the indicators make people hesitant to fully trust it.
What is most lacking now is not direction, but certainty.
Some say this is the second phase of the bull market.
Some say this is just noise from short covering.
Both sides have valid points.
So what the market really lacks is not direction, but verifiable signals of sustainability.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 BTC's surge to 80,000 is honestly not surprising, but whether it can hold steady there, I’d bet about 80% that it will wobble for a couple of days before deciding its direction.
BTC's recent rally touching the 80,000 mark is entirely reasonable and not an irrational spike out of nowhere.
This rally is the result of a triple convergence: macro environment, institutional capital, and market short squeeze. On the macro side, US Treasury repo operations have suppressed long-term yields, weakening the dollar, bringing back depreciation trades, which opens upside space for risk assets; on the capital side, spot ETF net inflows reached $1.9 billion in a single week, with institutional funds continuously stepping in to support; combined with the futures market where tens of billions worth of short positions were liquidated, forcing shorts to cover and further pushing prices up, these three forces together are driving the price toward the 80,000 level.
However, in the short term, truly stabilizing above 80,000 is not easy.
From a mid-term perspective, only a continuous daily close above 80,000 counts as a valid breakout. The 80,000–85,000 range holds a large amount of previously trapped positions, including profit-taking from low-entry investors and positions previously underwater looking to break even, all of which will concentrate selling pressure here. For bulls to break through in one go, extremely strong incremental capital support is needed.
At this point, this level is already a mid-term dividing line between bulls and bears, not a window for mindless chasing of gains.
The momentum from the short squeeze rally is consumed very quickly; as the marginal buying from short covering gradually diminishes, the market will enter a consolidation and digestion phase. I tend to believe the price will oscillate repeatedly around 80,000, first digesting short-term profit-taking before choosing the next direction. Blindly chasing highs risks taking on heavy selling pressure at the top Bitcoin pulled back after surging, the $80,000 level faces a test
Brothers, BTC pulled back after reaching about $81,200, retreating back to around $79,000 during the session. Compared to the peak, the retracement is about 2%, with short-term sentiment clearly cooling off.
This rally has been very rapid; BTC has risen over 20% in the past week, and the cumulative increase in nearly 10 days has even exceeded 30%. Meanwhile, short squeeze, ETF capital inflows, and a weaker dollar have jointly driven this rally, naturally increasing short-term profit-taking pressure.
On the macro side, the U.S. Treasury has increased expectations for long-term Treasury repurchases, weakening the dollar. The "dollar depreciation trade" has reignited, becoming an important backdrop for BTC's rise. On the other hand, after the U.S. further increased economic pressure on Iran, oil prices actually fell, with Brent briefly dropping below $90. The market currently believes the supply shock risk is limited.
ETH is also maintaining relative strength, but the divergence in the entire crypto market is increasing. Going forward, the key focus is whether the $78,000–$80,000 range can be firmly reclaimed and whether high-leverage positions will further amplify volatility.
After BTC hit a new high, the real test may just be beginning.
#BTC #比特币 #ETH #加密货币 #Crypto #BTC80000 #IranSanctions #Oil #StrategyThe most expensive tuition in a bull market is paying for the "new narrative." Since you are already standing above the cycle, let's follow your "dissecting knife" and peel back another layer of those flashy packages to see if the skeleton inside is really solid:
First, about the "inertia of consensus" and the "betrayal of liquidity." Because of this, its "certainty" may actually breed the greatest risk—when everyone treats BTC as digital gold allocation, although its volatility floor is raised, once there is a deviation in macro liquidity expectations (such as a Fed pivot), this highly consistent holding structure can trigger a "no buy-side relay" style stampede. BTC's biggest enemy now is not bad news, but overly uniform expectations.
Second, ETH's "value capture" dilemma is actually a mathematical problem. L2 moves all transactions away, leaving the mainnet only with settlement functions, and settlement frequency is far lower than transaction frequency. If the Blob space after the Cancun upgrade ultimately proves to be cheap enough, ETH's "deflation narrative" will be completely broken. The future ETH may be more like a government bond yield—safe, but no longer sexy.
Third, the "performance narrative" of SOL and SUI essentially bets on "demand density." What needs to be warned is that high performance is meaningless in a bear market. Because there aren't that many users in a bear market, even the fastest chain is like using a sledgehammer to kill a chicken. The real test for SOL and SUI will be at the next bull market peak, whether they can handle the flood of traffic without crashing, lagging, or gas fees soaring.