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#Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative, CPI becomes key to rate hikes Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the downside, but the market is really trading on the Fed's next move. July nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, far below market expectations, while May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000, indicating that the U.S. labor market is cooling rapidly. But here is a detail: the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%, not because the economy is strong, but due to a decline in labor force participation. Simply put, the U.S. job market is not suddenly improving but is gradually losing momentum. The biggest significance of this nonfarm report is that it sends a signal to the Fed — the pressure to maintain high interest rates is easing. The biggest market dilemma in the past was that inflation wouldn't come down, so the Fed dared not cut rates; but once employment started to deteriorate, the Fed couldn't continue to strongly suppress the economy. Now the balance is shifting. If next week's CPI continues to cool, expectations for a policy shift in September will further rise, potentially putting pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. For the market: $BTC is slightly positive in the short term. Bitcoin essentially thrives on liquidity; once the market starts trading rate cut expectations and risk capital flows back, BTC has a chance to see a new round of rebound. U.S. stocks $SNDK also benefit, especially AI and tech stocks, as high-valuation assets are most sensitive to interest rates. But if subsequent economic data continue to worsen, the market may switch from a "rate cut trade" to a "recession trade." Gold $XAU continues to enjoy a dual logic: weak employment plus rate cut expectations will both drive funds to continue allocating to safe-haven assets. The above is only a personal opinion, including personal trading position tests, and does not constitute any investment advice!