#PPIHotCPINext
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About PPIHotCPINext
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year over year, above expectations, as energy and commodity prices continue pushing up producer inflation. Core PPI was 0.2% month over month, slightly below forecast. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, with September hike pricing moving higher. The ECB also hiked 25bps and raised its 2027 to 2028 inflation forecasts, noting the Middle East as a significant upside risk. August CPI prints tonight, the last major input before the Sept 16 Fed decision.
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PPIHotCPINext Suositut postaukset
❗️U.S. Macro — PPI
MoM = +0.4% (expected +0.3% / previous +0%)
YoY = +5.4% (expected +5.1% / previous +4.7%)
Core PPI
MoM = +0.2% (expected +0.2% / previous +0.2%)
YoY = +4.6% (expected +4.5% / previous +4.2%)
In addition, yields on 2-year Treasuries jumped to 4.47%—the highest level since July 2024.
🐊 Friday’s CPI doesn’t automatically mean BTC will accelerate lower.
The market trades the expectation gap, not the headline itself.
CPI above expectations + a major repricing of the Fed’s rate path = real downside risk.
But if data is near expectations, much of the hike narrative may already be priced in.
Don’t trade the story. Wait for the data, then trade the price.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温 #加息分歧扩大
#OracleAdobeToday
#PPIandCPIWatch
#OutcomesOnOrbit
🐊 Friday’s CPI won’t automatically send BTC lower.
It’s all about the expectation gap. Hotter-than-expected data + Fed repricing = downside risk. In-line data? Much may already be priced in.
Don’t trade the narrative. Trade the reaction.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温 #加息分歧扩大
#OracleAdobeToday #PPIandCPIWatch #OutcomesOnOrbit
US PPI data will be released today.
Expectations: 5.3%
If PPI = 5.3%, a slight dump.
If PPI < 5.3%, pump and rate hike odds will go down.
If PPI > 5.3%, dump and rate hike odds will rise.
$BICO
$MACRO $PPI
PPI lands in less than two hours. Markets are already priced for acceleration.
Consensus expects August headline PPI +0.4% MoM and +5.3% YoY, a clear step-up from the flat July print.
Core is seen at +0.3% MoM / +4.6% YoY.
This is the last major inflation print before tomorrow’s CPI and next week’s FOMC.
If it came higher than 0.4%, expect a drop in the markets across the board and if it came equal or lower than 0.4%, expect some relief.
NDX, SPX and Bitcoin all sit downstream
Hot PPI has reignited inflation concerns and lifted Fed hawkish expectations, putting short-term pressure on $BTC .
Today’s real variable remains CPI. Another hot CPI print would further validate the bearish setup.
I’m starting to feel that even after tomorrow’s CPI, the market could remain stuck in indecision for a few more days.
Crypto is simply too fragile right now. Just look at how quickly BTC and ETH sold off immediately after today’s data.
The reason is pretty simple: CPI is only the last piece of the puzzle. The real decision comes with the September FOMC.
PPI has already added fuel to the inflation narrative, with August’s year-over-year increase reaching 5.4%. Sd
🚨WARNING: The US 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.378% today, its highest since 2007, DESPITE the Treasury buying back over $30 BILLION in debt this month.
The 10-year is at 4.96%, pushing toward 5.00% for the first time since October 2023.
The dollar continues to weaken at 98.73, even as yields surge to levels that should be attracting global capital.
The largest monthly buyback program in history has not stopped yields from rising as $107 oil and a hot PPI keep inflation pressure building.
