Post

August 24–30 Global Macro Guidance: How the 'Macro + Geopolitical + Interest Rates + US Stock Quadruple' Will Guide Market Pricing! The yen remains a potential risk! This week, the pricing logic for macro and risk assets was influenced from four perspectives: macro data (July PCE) + geopolitical (US-Iran situation) + interest rates (Wash's speech) + US stocks (Nvidia earnings), forming a complete macro framework! Global Focus: Determining the Direction of Energy and Inflation Expectations—US-Iran Situation or Oil Price Fluctuations Is the US Economy Really Trading Stagflation? Or to mitigate economic risks—July PCE will be decisively decided Will the latest data change central bank monetary policy——— Will Wash's Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting Debut #杰克逊霍尔临近 Can Wash clarify its policy path? The closing of the US Q2 earnings season, the overall acceptance of the AI industry chain — #NVDA Earnings report release The following stages are arranged by impact on the public: (the end includes potential yen risk) 1. From the US-Iran situation to energy price fluctuations, global inflation expectations and economic stability will be determined! 1. Although the US-Iran situation is normalized, its importance cannot be ignored. If a major change occurs, large fluctuations in energy prices will disrupt the macro rhythm this week. 2. So far, priority attention is on whether the US announced the latest economic sanctions on Iran on Monday, and whether secondary sanctions are involved, as these relate to developments in the US-Iran situation. 3. Middle Eastern leaders frequently visit Tehran. Pakistan's top military leader, Munir, has already arrived in Tehran to mediate and coordinate the US-Iran situation