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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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UNI涨到5.1美元,你追不追? 先看表面:UNI涨得真狠,但你有点慌。 3个月翻一倍多,近7天还涨了13%-18%。市值杀回31.8亿,排名26。24小时现货+合约成交干到快20亿,真金白银的流量。 但昨天冲到5.47后砸回来了,日线留了长上影。  第一件事:代币经济学改写了,UNI不再是"废治理币"。 2025年12月UNIfication通过:国库一次性销毁1亿枚UNI,打开协议费开关,用部分交易费在市场上买UNI再销毁。 截至8月31日,累计销毁约1.10亿枚,价值6.3亿美元。8月21日单日销毁15万枚/59万美元,创阶段新高。 UNI从纯治理币,变成了"协议收入挂钩的通缩资产"。 第二件事:Robinhood Chain把TradFi流量接过来了。 7月主网上线后,Uniswap作为该链公开AMM。股票代币日成交一度到1.3亿美元,一个月翻了10倍,累计成交到十亿级别。Robinhood Chain对协议费和销毁的贡献明显抬升——近期销毁里该链占比接近一半。 UNI第一次接到了传统金融的流量,而不只是加密圈内部换手。 第三件事:大户在搬仓,筹码在离开交易所。 近期有沉寂钱包提币、Upbit/Binance热钱包向冷钱包/做市商地址转移。属于"筹码离开交易所"的信号,和销毁机制叠加后,市场把它解读成供给收缩。 但注意:叙事已经被5.4附近定价了一部分。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: UNIfication通过,协议费回购销毁,通缩叙事开启 Robinhood Chain接入股票代币,TradFi流量真实落地 累计销毁1.1亿枚/6.3亿美金,供给持续收缩 从2.31反弹至今,趋势已转多 一边是: 日线RSI 70-71超买,短线已经偏热 昨天5.47长上影,供给压力明显 9月FOMC加息风险,宏观偏紧 BTC若失7.6万,UNI很难独善其身 上方阻力:5.20 → 5.45-5.50(昨日供给)→ 5.65-5.80 → 6.00-6.11 下方支撑:5.00 → 4.85-4.95(突破平台)→ 4.64-4.70(结构防守) 操作策略 已经多单的: 减掉30%-40%浮动盈亏,把仓位降到"被扫也不痛"。止盈阶梯:5.45-5.50再减一截;站稳5.50再看5.80/6.10。移动止损提到4.84。 空仓想做多的: 等回踩4.86-5.00,最好4h收出下影或放量止跌。止损4.62下方,目标5.28→5.48→5.80。盈亏比合格。 如果日线收盘站稳5.50,且合约费率没有疯狂转正,才追。止损5.28,目标5.80/6.10。 想做空的: 可以做战术空,不能做信仰空。只在5.45-5.50受阻、4h出现明显上影+量缩时试空。止损5.58之上,目标只看到5.00/4.86。 关注两个变量:BTC是否跌破7.6万,UNI日销毁/Robinhood股票代币成交是否明显降温。 UNI这次困境反转,是DeFi历史上第一次"协议开始赚钱回购"—— 99%的人还在用"治理币没价值"的老眼光看UNI,但协议已经烧了6.3亿美金。 你的UNI成本是多少? 这波能到6块吗? $BTC $ETH $UNI
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
$2.40 TRUMP, do you dare to buy the bottom? Let's look at the surface first: after the surge, the market fluctuates at high levels, leaving retail investors conflicted. On August 22, there was extreme single-day volatility, opening at 1.87, reaching a high of 3.68, and closing at 2.44. It then tested 3.0 multiple times but was all pushed back. Today it was 2.40, down 6%-8%, just below the midline of the high-level range. 3.0-3.7 is a clear supply wall, with 2.28 below being a key lifeline. First: explosive pulls rely on emotion, fulfillment depends on the team. The White House crypto summit combined with a rebound in risk appetite ignited the surge from 1.4 to 3.68. Eric Trump just denied the rumors of "issuing new coins," calling them a scam—but the rumor itself is the best fuel.  During the rally, related wallets cashed out about $3.39 million through liquidity operations, and another 2.62 million tokens (about $6.21 million) were transferred to OK. You think it's a 'political belief' rally, but others treat it as 'liquidity management.' The second thing: the supply structure is the biggest pitfall for this coin. The total supply is 1 billion, with about 251 million in circulation. Trump-affiliated entities (such as CIC Digital) still control most of the tokens and are unlocking them in batches as planned. Around mid-September, there is an expected release of about 28.7 million tokens. The third thing: the technical side has reached a "neither top nor bottom" position. The daily chart structure started from 1.37, with a 30-day gain of 60%-75%. The medium-term structure hasn't completely broken down yet. But 3.0-3.7 is clearly the supply zone, with four bullish attempts and all pushed back. Volume is huge on rally days, but shrinks significantly after pullback—chasing funds are retreating, not continuous accumulation. Only by regaining the 2.94 rating and increasing volume can it qualify to challenge 3.6 The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you On one side: White House Crypto Summit+ Political Heat Still Lingers, Memes Have a Narrative Premium Starting from 1.37, a higher low point was made, and the medium-term structure remains intact Contract turnover is huge, and short-term betting funds are active The 2.28-2.32 support has been held multiple times On one side: The team cashed out nearly ten million dollars during the rally, with internal selling pressure real By mid-September, about 28.7 million tokens were expected to be unlocked, with supply pressure still on the way Two-thirds of wallets are still at a loss, and the rebound means selling pressure Public Citizen reported that the related products caused investors to unrealized losses of at least $4.7 billion California plans legislation to ban public employees from issuing meme coins, raising regulatory shadows Resistance above: 2.52-2.60 → 2.72-2.94 → 3.05-3.20 → 3.60-3.68 Support levels: 2.28-2.32 (strong support) → 2.11-2.17 → 2.00 Operational strategy Option A: Wait until volume increases above 2.58-2.62 and holds back without breaking below before light positions and test long, targeting 2.85-2.95, stop loss below 2.38. Don't chase the rebound after the bearish drop at 2.4, unless the volume rebounds within 1 hour. Option B: Range: 2.28-2.95. Near 2.28-2.32, with reduced volume, stopping down, and lower shadow, only short longs. Target 2.52/2.72, reduce positions at 2.85-2.95. If rebound to 2.72-2.94, if volume can't keep up and the upper shadow is long, reduce bullish or light bearish, target 2.50-2.40. Option C: On the daily chart, the effective closing price falls below 2.28, short-term weakness turns weak, exit or reverse to target 2.15-2.00. Only after volume recovery and holding above 2.94 can the target be set at 3.20-3.40. Don't use "Trump tweeting" as a reason to open a position—his tweets can boost 20%, and the team's coin transfers can also invest 15%. The catalysts for the rise (summits, rumors, short squeezes) have already been used once. Cash-out markets, unlocks, regulation, and trapped positions still exist. The macro sector has not given MEME unlimited leverage either. There are only two scenarios where I would be more aggressive: stabilize around 2.28 and BTC strengthens in sync, or volume increases and breaks through 2.94. TRUMP is not an investment, it's a game of strategy— 99% of people treat it as "political belief," but remember: the team is selling, unlocking is on the way, and trapped investors are waiting for a rebound to escape. You are chasing faith, while others are chasing liquidity. "The biggest illusion of political memes is that you think you're betting on the future, but in reality, you're taking over for insiders." How much does your TRUMP cost? At the 2.40 level, do you dare to buy the dip or wait for a lower price? $BTC $ETH $TRUMP

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