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Reestablishing the rate hike threshold + refusing to give the market a hawkish commitment, this is the theme of Waller's speech tonight. Although Waller did not lock in the probability of a rate hike in September, he clearly told the market that the current interest rates are not restrictive enough for the financial market, opening up the possibility of a rate hike, especially with the reinforcement of the 2% inflation target, which deeply plunged the market into concerns about a September rate hike. After Waller's speech, the CME swap rate shows a 45.7% probability of a September rate hike, while traders estimate the probability at 50%! Actually, the core of Waller's speech tonight is still to keep the market at high interest rates. Although the probability of a September rate hike has increased, I still do not believe there will really be a rate hike in September, because the current interest rates do not affect financing for tech stocks, but for real estate, retail, and other real economy enterprises, high financing costs are fatal. The current crisis can still be contained, but if rate hikes continue, these enterprises will inevitably suffer greatly. So, as I said before, Waller is trying to continue guiding the market to maintain high interest rates. Besides the data itself lacking sufficient evidence for rate cuts, more importantly, Waller needs time for the working group to establish new data combinations to coordinate with rate cuts. Before the working group's data is released, unless inflation continues to decline, Waller may really continue to maintain a hawkish tone and keep the market at high interest rates. Of course, besides Waller's own monetary policy, market expectations remain effective. To reduce the expectation of rate hikes, besides August's inflation, employment, and economic data, the most direct factor is for energy prices to quickly return to normal. #WallerAppearsTonightJie