When the prediction market says "No," maybe that's exactly when you should say "Yes"
14%.
This is the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year on Polymarket.
It just dropped below 20% in mid-August, now it has crashed to 14%. Kalshi is even harsher, with less than a 25% chance of passing by the end of the year. Galaxy Research cut it from 50% all the way down to 10%.
From "a done deal" to "almost no chance" in just four months.
The market has given up. What about you?
But there's a detail that's chilling upon closer thought.
In the past month, 5 brand new accounts have been betting "No" on Polymarket at any cost.
5 accounts, all newly opened, all with 0.01 ETH gas plus whole USDC amounts, all placing 1 to 3 market buy orders.
A total investment of $2.46 million. If the prediction succeeds, a net profit of $609,000.
These 5 accounts hold five of the top six "No" positions, accounting for 68% of the market's total holdings.
The words "insider trading" are already written on the wall.
But here’s the question—
If it really is insider trading, why not run after being exposed?
The information of these five accounts has been fully uncovered online. PolyBeats detected it, the community spread it, even the opponents were doxxed—ImJustKen with a total profit of 3.3 million, AllByMyseIf with 526,000, GollumGekko with 268,000.
Everyone knows "someone knows the answer."
So how much value does this "answer" still have?
Are there not many cases where insider trading accusations in prediction markets were exaggerated after the fact? Polymarket’s previous insider trading investigations have yet to reach any conclusion.
When everyone knows someone is cheating, the cheating itself is already priced in.
Will history repeat itself?
Remember the GENIUS Act?
The first motion to end debate failed, the market was pessimistic, and the probability hit rock bottom. What happened? It passed a few weeks later.
The setback in September may not be the end.
The Senate reconvenes on September 14. Last week, Trump publicly pressured at the White House crypto meeting, calling the CLARITY Act "a strong bipartisan consensus" and hoping for it to be signed into law in September. Over 200 crypto companies jointly urged the Senate to vote.
The procedural vote on September 15 requires 60 votes.
The window is still open.
Here’s something painful.
What are retail investors doing? Seeing a 14% probability, they cut losses and leave, cursing "the policy is dead."
What are the smart people doing? Watching those 5 accounts, watching September 15, watching Trump’s Twitter.
Prediction markets have never been crystal balls.
They are amplifiers of sentiment. Thermometers of fear and greed.
When the probability drops from 82% to 14%, the biggest expectation gap is hidden in the most pessimistic place.
When everyone knows "someone knows the answer,"
that "answer" itself is already worthless.
14% is either a death sentence,
or the biggest expectation gap in history.
September 15, the truth will be revealed.
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