Talk about recent positions and #WTI #SPCX $CL$SPCX
Following the logical path: oil prices --- inflation--- interest rate expectations—impacting risk markets
Come on
First, regarding the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, which affects oil prices. Although prices are close to $84, the news saying "the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching some kind of arrangement" indicates that conditions are still being exchanged. As long as the escalation does not continue, oil prices will not be stimulated to rise
But the market's patience is limited; let's see if concrete arrangements can be made in the coming days
Personally, I don't think the price will keep rising and probably won't be very high. So still holding short positions at oil prices means users are trading aggressively, which makes the rates less friendly, which is quite heartbreaking.
If this trend continues to fall, around 75, I'll have to wait for a chance to level out completely.
Next, tonight's CPI data is still expected to be quite good. If inflation continues to ease, expectations for future rate hikes will definitely be further dispelled, which could potentially raise expectations for rate cuts in Q4
This is favorable for US stocks and Bitcoin. So my #SPCX is still holding, waiting tonight to see if I can leverage good CPI data and see if there's a chance to break through 140, then I'm ready to leave completely.
The market is all waiting for a direction to choose tonight. As of writing, the rate hike expectation for September is about 50%.
Of course, if there is a major upset in CPI or even a geopolitical upgrade, oil prices will rebound
Then let's talk about another story
Let's hope things move in a positive direction.
DYOR
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