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DL_W59
DL_W59
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公布了,都符合预期,温和通胀。进一步打消 9月加息的预期 但CME显示 9月加息预期还有约38%,虽然低于50%,但还是让市场不放心,尤其是油价还是在80以上高位的(其实还是需要事件信息让这个加息概率进一步降低) 当然个人觉得9月大概率还是不会加息的。 美股开盘标普指数回升,#SKHY 也回升150以上,我还在等 #SPCX 能不能冲140以上。要是到了就准备走人。毕竟下周又有解锁 虽然这份数据不错,但市场还是担心地缘,油价 我去蹲官方新闻直播,官方评论员的解读,近期地缘升级可能也不太会,美或重回经济制裁路线。川普或许也有沮丧的情绪,因为不能打,想快速拿下,但伊又头铁。现在市场的耐心也不多,油价仍没有继续回落。 但毕竟临近中期大选,还有通胀情况,川普肯定不想看到中期大选(11月)之前还来加大加息预期吧 所以让通胀下去,就是地缘降级,缓和,和谈,让油价下去 留给川普的时间真的不多了。至少双方来说是希望谈的,因为都没有再军事上有更多动作。 这也是为什么虽然最近因为短线用户多,导致费率不友好(近期在0.03上下附近,之前都是0)还拿着空单。再给机会就真要平了,拿了一个多月,也做了几次过山车。 DYOR
DL_W59
DL_W59
Talk about recent positions and #WTI #SPCX $CL $SPCX Following the logical path: oil prices --- inflation--- interest rate expectations—impacting risk markets Come on First, regarding the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, which affects oil prices. Although prices are close to $84, the news saying "the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching some kind of arrangement" indicates that conditions are still being exchanged. As long as the escalation does not continue, oil prices will not be stimulated to rise But the market's patience is limited; let's see if concrete arrangements can be made in the coming days Personally, I don't think the price will keep rising and probably won't be very high. So still holding short positions at oil prices means users are trading aggressively, which makes the rates less friendly, which is quite heartbreaking. If this trend continues to fall, around 75, I'll have to wait for a chance to level out completely. Next, tonight's CPI data is still expected to be quite good. If inflation continues to ease, expectations for future rate hikes will definitely be further dispelled, which could potentially raise expectations for rate cuts in Q4 This is favorable for US stocks and Bitcoin. So my #SPCX is still holding, waiting tonight to see if I can leverage good CPI data and see if there's a chance to break through 140, then I'm ready to leave completely. The market is all waiting for a direction to choose tonight. As of writing, the rate hike expectation for September is about 50%. Of course, if there is a major upset in CPI or even a geopolitical upgrade, oil prices will rebound Then let's talk about another story Let's hope things move in a positive direction. DYOR

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