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SanDisk fell 8% in after-hours trading, and Western Digital dropped 11% in after-hours trading. The better the performance, the harder the drop. The entire storage sector also crashed—SK Hynix fell over 10% intraday, Samsung dropped over 6%, and Kioxia plunged over 10%. The person holding the storage shares was completely stunned. "372% growth—isn't that enough?" Not enough. Far from enough. Where did the problem lie? Two words: expectations. SanDisk's median next quarter revenue guidance is $10.55 billion, with market expectations of $11.15 billion. The gap was less than 6%, and the stock price crashed by 9%. Western Digital was even more unlucky — the median guidance for next quarter was $4.1 billion, actually higher than analysts' expectations of $4.06 billion. But it still fell 15% after hours. Goldman Sachs summed it up in one sentence: "The core issue facing the current storage industry is not fundamentals deteriorating, but that market expectations have exceeded reality." To put it plainly— It's not that storage is failing; the market's expectations for storage have reached the point where "you have to be so perfect that even the guidelines need to be significantly revised." SanDisk has risen 460% this year, and Western Digital has risen 200%. All the good news had already been priced in. But what really alerted me was another piece of news. NVIDIA is evaluating downgrading the HBM configuration of Rubin Ultra. What does that mean? NVIDIA's next-generation AI flagship GPU was originally planned to feature 1TB of HBM4e 12hi memory. Now, due to severe HBM supply shortages, they are considering switching to the 8hi version or even downgrading to HBM4. The memory capacity may be cut by a third. The world's strongest AI chip company has been forced to proactively "downgrade" its spending. This isn't a lack of demand. It's that supply is so choked that even Nvidia can't handle it. This leads to an even deeper contradiction— Is supply outstripping supply—is it a positive or a constraint? In the past two years, the market has treated "supply shortage" as the biggest positive factor—price increases, soaring gross margins, and soaring performance. But now the script has changed. Supply outstripped supply→ HBM capacity was insufficient→ Nvidia was forced to downgrade→ AI chip performance was discounted→ cloud vendors had to buy more GPUs→ higher costs→ and AI infrastructure efficiency declined. Each link in this transmission chain erodes the underlying logic of the "AI storage bull market." What's even more heartbreaking is that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have already sold out all their HBM production capacity for 2027. The final goods customers receive are only 60%-70% of what they initially requested. Demand is still rising, and capacity is locked in until 2027. This is not a "good day when demand exceeds supply"; it is a "prisoner's dilemma strangled by production capacity." Divisions are turning into cracks. Citi said: Low inventory, supply-demand adequacy ratio dropping from 70% to 50%, prices can still rise. Morgan Stanley said: Memory contract prices peaked in Q4. Renqiao Asset said: The storage industry may have already peaked. Who is right and who is wrong? I don't know. But I know one thing— When everyone in an industry believes "supply exceeds supply = prices will always rise," the real risk never lies in supply and demand itself— And when it comes to 'everyone believes,' Back to investment. If you ask me: will you still continue to lay out storage now? My answer is: yes, but no longer buying with eyes closed. AI's demand for storage is real, structural, and long-term. SanDisk has signed 10 long-term agreements covering 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion, and more than half of supply locked in by 2027. This is not a bubble. It is a real demand for money. But stock movements never depend on "whether demand is real"—it looks at "whether expectations can be higher." When expectations have already reached the point where "372% growth still feels insufficient"— Every penny you earn is a bet against the market's most extreme optimism. $XSNDK $WDC $XSKHY #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?