Changxin Technology will be listed on Monday. What market value is reasonable to buy in at?
Conclusion first: Based on Changxin's profits and the P/E ratios of the world's top three memory companies, Changxin's reasonable valuation is between ¥1.7 trillion and ¥2.1 trillion. Considering the scarcity of domestic DRAM leaders, the market may assign a premium valuation ranging from ¥2.1 trillion to ¥3 trillion. Additionally, factoring in a low free float ratio of 6.73% and the market sentiment driven by South Korea's recently announced $950 billion semiconductor cooperation, there is a possibility of intraday surges reaching ¥3 trillion to ¥4 trillion.
1. How much is Changxin worth based on profits and peer P/E ratios?
As of the close on July 24, the data for the world's top three memory companies are roughly:
Samsung Electronics: Market cap about ¥7.35 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥386.7 billion, P/E ratio about 20x;
SK Hynix: Market cap about ¥5.95 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥348.7 billion, P/E ratio about 17x;
Micron: Market cap about ¥7.04 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥341.8 billion, P/E ratio about 21x.
Using Changxin's projected net profit of ¥100 billion in 2026 as a baseline:
Market cap of ¥2.1 trillion corresponds to a 21x P/E ratio;
Market cap of ¥3 trillion corresponds to a 30x P/E ratio;
Market cap of ¥4 trillion corresponds to a 40x P/E ratio.
Therefore, Changxin reaching ¥2.1 trillion would have a valuation roughly close to international peers. Changxin is behind the top three in scale, technology, and customers, but it is the only A-share company capable of large-scale DRAM production, so the market may grant some domestic substitution and scarcity premium.
Note that the three international companies use the last 12
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