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金石(互动)
金石(互动)
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长鑫开盘3.31万亿元:追涨太贵,做空又怕继续涨 长鑫科技开盘49.5元,总市值3.31万亿元,距离4万亿元只差约21%。 按全年900亿至1100亿元利润估算: 2万亿元对应18至22倍市盈率,对照美光、SK海力士,还能解释; 3.31万亿元对应30至37倍,已经加入了国产替代、市场热度和低流通带来的加价。 现在最尴尬的是:估值已经很高,但上市初期只有6.73%的股票能交易。按开盘市值计算,真正可以交易的部分约2230亿元。卖出的股票少,即使价格贵,也可能继续被资金推高。 我的选择是不追涨,也不做空。与其在3万亿元以上赌涨跌,不如关注被长鑫吸走资金、但公司本身没有变差的其他半导体股票。 #XCMT $XCMT
金石(互动)
金石(互动)
Changxin Technology will be listed on Monday. What market value is reasonable to buy in at?
Conclusion first: Based on Changxin's profits and the P/E ratios of the world's top three memory companies, Changxin's reasonable valuation is between ¥1.7 trillion and ¥2.1 trillion. Considering the scarcity of domestic DRAM leaders, the market may assign a premium valuation ranging from ¥2.1 trillion to ¥3 trillion. Additionally, factoring in a low free float ratio of 6.73% and the market sentiment driven by South Korea's recently announced $950 billion semiconductor cooperation, there is a possibility of intraday surges reaching ¥3 trillion to ¥4 trillion. 1. How much is Changxin worth based on profits and peer P/E ratios? As of the close on July 24, the data for the world's top three memory companies are roughly: Samsung Electronics: Market cap about ¥7.35 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥386.7 billion, P/E ratio about 20x; SK Hynix: Market cap about ¥5.95 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥348.7 billion, P/E ratio about 17x; Micron: Market cap about ¥7.04 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥341.8 billion, P/E ratio about 21x. Using Changxin's projected net profit of ¥100 billion in 2026 as a baseline: Market cap of ¥2.1 trillion corresponds to a 21x P/E ratio; Market cap of ¥3 trillion corresponds to a 30x P/E ratio; Market cap of ¥4 trillion corresponds to a 40x P/E ratio. Therefore, Changxin reaching ¥2.1 trillion would have a valuation roughly close to international peers. Changxin is behind the top three in scale, technology, and customers, but it is the only A-share company capable of large-scale DRAM production, so the market may grant some domestic substitution and scarcity premium. Note that the three international companies use the last 12

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