#CPIToResetFedBets

Why is August the best summer? This sentence is Frank @qinbafrank's recent judgment on the market. Last time, Frank and I talked about the SpaceX IPO on the Planet live stream. More than a month has passed, so it's a good time to review: which predictions came true, and what should we focus on now that the lock-up period has started? But this time, it's not just about SpaceX— The US stock market has experienced adjustments, AI is starting to diverge internally, but gold is rising again. Is the market still betting on growth, or is it already preparing for risks? Tonight, the US July CPI will be announced one hour before the live stream. After the data is released, how will US bonds, the dollar, tech stocks, gold, and BTC vote? We'll watch the market reaction directly without guessing the answer in advance. Tonight at 21:30, Frank × Mercy, see you in the OKX Planet live room. This time, about one-third of the time will be reserved for real-time comments, so everyone can ask questions directly 😁 Reserve your spot for the live stream 👉 https://oyidl.net/ul/s0FnIaO #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？

BTC & ETH ETF Inflows Return: Institutions Are Buying, But CPI, the Fed, and Hormuz Will Decide the Next Move The crypto market is entering a critical macro phase. Institutional capital is returning, with U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracting approximately $1.1 billion in combined net inflows over the past week. While this signals growing confidence, both $BTC and $ETH remain volatile as investors await the next catalyst. The focus is now on the U.S. July CPI report, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12, 2026 (7:30 p.m. Vietnam time). The data could reshape Fed rate-cut expectations within minutes, driving volatility across Wall Street, the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and crypto. If inflation comes in below expectations, markets may price in a more dovish Fed, improving liquidity and creating a stronger backdrop for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues supporting higher oil prices, keeping inflation risks elevated and limiting the Fed's flexibility. The market is balancing three key forces: • ETF inflows reflect rising institutional confidence. • Softer CPI could strengthen expectations for Fed easing. • Higher oil prices from Hormuz tensions continue fueling inflation concerns. If inflation cools and oil prices stabilize, global liquidity could improve. $BTC may lead the next rally, while $ETH could benefit from institutional adoption, staking, and tokenization. Beyond the majors, $SOL remains well positioned if risk appetite returns, while $OKB could gain from stronger exchange activity and improving liquidity. However, hotter CPI, elevated oil prices, or worsening geopolitical tensions could keep investors cautious and delay the next crypto breakout. The most important signal may not be today's price action, but where institutional capital is positioning before the next macro catalyst. If you find these insights valuable, follow me for more analysis and updates across crypto and Wall Street. #CPIToResetFedBets #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #HormuzPressureRises $BTC $ETH

$BTC - CPI analysis (educational) CPI drops today 1h before NY open. Consensus: Headline CPI MoM: +0.1% Headline CPI YoY: 3.4% Core CPI MoM: +0.2% Core CPI YoY: 2.5% The recent weaker labor market print slightly reduced expectations for another Fed hike (50/50rn). This puts even more weight on today's inflation data to determine how the market prices the Fed's next move. From the last ~20 CPI releases, the surprise vs. expectations has mattered much more for BTC (risk assets in general) than the absolute CPI number itself. Cooler than expected > Headline ≤0.0% MoM and/or Core ≤0.1% > Inflation pressure comes in softer than priced > Hike probabilities ↓ > USD ↓ > Risk assets ↑ -> Historically bullish setup for BTC Hotter than expected > Especially Core ≥0.3% MoM / Headline >3.4% YoY > Inflation remains sticky > Hike probabilities ↑ > USD ↑ > Risk assets ↓ -> Historically bearish setup for BTC Core will be particularly important. A mixed print can create a very messy initial reaction if headline and core point in opposite directions. Based on the last ~20 prints, the rough historical distribution has been: Cooler -> ~70–80% positive BTC reaction In-line/mixed -> ~50–60% neutral/positive -> still, often quick position drives on print Hotter -> ~65–75% negative reaction Don't take these numbers as probabilities for what CPI itself will print - they're the historical BTC reactions conditional on the type of deviation from expectations Short term, I expect aggressive positioning to get hunted around the release. First move doesn't necessarily equal the real move -> real move comes after the initial impulses stabilize For me, the important sequence is: CPI surprise -> rates repricing -> yields/USD reaction -> risk asset reaction. Took profits yesterday into the move lower as posted Keeping u updated about my plans

🚨 CPI IS ABOUT TO HIT — HERE’S THE QUICK CHEAT SHEET FOR $BTC & $ETH. 👀 #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Forget the noise for a moment. Tonight, I’m watching one number above everything else: Core CPI MoM. The 0.2% level is the key dividing line. Here’s the playbook: 🔴 >0.25% Inflation is showing signs of rebounding → rate-hike expectations heat up → risk assets come under pressure. 🟡 0.18–0.25% Basically around expectations → volatility could get nasty → false breakouts become more likely. Don’t chase the first move. 🟢 <0.15% Inflation cools meaningfully → rate-hike expectations weaken → potentially bullish for risk assets. ⚠️ One important reminder: Liquidity can be thin right when the data drops, so those first few minutes can produce violent fake spikes in either direction. Don’t let the first candle make the decision for you. Wait 15–30 minutes. Let the market absorb the number, watch where liquidity settles, and then see which direction $BTC and $ETH actually choose. Tonight isn’t about predicting the first spike. It’s about surviving it. 👀 $BTC $ETH #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid

$ETH ETH Stuck at $1891 – Waiting for CPI to Ignite Trading around $1891, down ~2% in 24h, sliding from $1937 and chopping weakly in the $1850-1890 range. Options OI hit an all-time high – ETH options at $8.1B, futures over $9.1B. When CPI hits, volatility will be brutal. Tonight at 8:30 PM ET, US July CPI is the key variable. Expected +3.4% YoY, core +2.5% – will directly shape the September rate path and risk asset direction. $1900 resistance above, $1850 support below. $BTC $BEAT

As soon as the night session opened, something felt off; every night, the US and Iran stir up trouble. BTC and ETH plunged sharply following news of the Strait's closure, while $CL steadily held above $82. Geopolitical risk is being repriced. The Hormuz agreement talks are as good as nonexistent. Both the US and Iran are escalating, but it's chips, not sincerity, that they're raising. The deadlock's core isn't the agreement itself but its implementation. Negotiations between Iran and Oman are still stuck in bickering, not even touching on basic terms like transit fees. Analysts say Iran's chips are depreciating, international tolerance for blocking the strait is decreasing, but the strait won't reopen anytime soon. The transmission chain is clear: geopolitical risk pushes oil prices up, oil prices raise inflation expectations, inflation expectations limit rate cut space, and risk assets naturally come under pressure. If tonight's CPI data continues to cool down, this logic chain can ease a bit, but if CPI rebounds, geopolitical and macro factors will create a double squeeze. For now, wait for tonight's data to settle; avoid making predictions before the direction becomes clear. No matter how lively the night session is, it can't compare to the weight of those numbers. $BTC $ETH $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温

CPI DATA TODAY at 5:30PM PST 🔴Core cpi m/m Actual : 0% Forecast : 0.2% 🔴Cpi m/m Actual : -0.4% Forecast : 0.1% 🟢Core CPI Y/Y Actual : 2.6% Forecast : 2.5% 🟢Cpi Y/Y Actual : 3.5% Forecast : 3.4% Red means Bearish expected Green means Bullish Expected Volatility Expected so Trade with proper risk management.

The Market Is Not Waiting For CPI. It Is Positioning Around It. Crypto markets can look quiet before a major macro release, but quiet price action does not mean nothing is happening underneath. Today’s US July CPI is one of the most important catalysts for risk assets this week. Bitcoin and Ether have been trading in a relatively tight range ahead of the release, leaving traders focused on the potential reaction rather than simply the number itself. $BTC and $ETH remain the first assets I’m watching. If inflation comes in softer than expected, markets could price a more supportive path for monetary policy and risk appetite could expand. If inflation surprises higher, the opposite reaction is possible. But the most important signal may come after the first move. Does liquidity follow the breakout? That is where I start looking further down the market. $SOL $BNB $XRP $SUI $APT $AVAX $NEAR $SEI $TIA Layer-1s remain one of the clearest areas to watch when traders begin increasing risk. But price performance alone is not enough. The stronger signal is whether these ecosystems continue attracting users, stablecoin liquidity, developers and DeFi activity. A CPI-driven move can create short-term momentum. Sustained capital rotation needs more than that. DeFi is another sector that could become interesting if risk appetite expands. $AAVE $UNI $CRV $PENDLE $JUP $MKR $COMP These protocols give the market exposure to actual financial activity. Lending. Trading. Liquidity. Yield. If capital begins rotating into DeFi, I want to see whether volume and on-chain participation expand with the price. Otherwise, the move may simply be another short-lived narrative rotation. Infrastructure is another area I’m watching closely. $LINK $ARB $OP $DOT $ATOM $TIA The infrastructure layer does not always receive the same attention as memes or high-beta tokens. But data, interoperability, scaling and execution become increasingly important as more capital moves on-chain. $ONDO $LINK $MKR $XLM #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid

Crypto's Next Move May Depend Less on Bitcoin—and More on Wednesday's CPI. Markets have already begun repricing expectations for the Federal Reserve. Following weaker-than-expected payroll data, expectations for another September rate hike have eased, with prediction markets and futures now leaning toward the Fed holding rates steady. But the debate isn't over. Wednesday's CPI report could become the most important macro event of the month. Economists expect headline inflation to edge lower, while core inflation is also forecast to cool modestly. The challenge is that services inflation remains stubbornly elevated, leaving policymakers with little room for complacency. For crypto, the implications are significant. A softer inflation print could reinforce expectations that monetary policy has peaked, improving liquidity conditions for risk assets. A hotter-than-expected reading, however, would quickly revive expectations for tighter policy and strengthen the US dollar. Recent months have shown that Bitcoin often responds more to liquidity expectations than crypto-specific headlines. Sometimes the biggest catalyst for digital assets begins with an inflation report. Do you think this week's CPI will strengthen the case for lower rates—or force markets to rethink September expectations? Share your thoughts below 👇 #CPIToResetFedBets

TONIGHT COULD SET THE DIRECTION FOR BTC — CPI IS THE KEY TEST. 👀📊 CPI drops tonight at 8:30, and $BTC has spent the past week struggling to break above the $64K area. Now the market is waiting for one number to determine the next move. The community is also gearing up for tonight’s live discussion. 👀 📊 Current market expectations: • Headline CPI MoM: 0.1% • Core CPI MoM: 0.2% • Headline CPI YoY: 3.4%, down from 3.5% • Core CPI YoY: 2.5%, down from 2.6% The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast is slightly different: • Headline CPI MoM: ~0.19% • Core CPI MoM: ~0.16% So why could CPI matter more than the latest jobs report? The non-farm payrolls report already pushed expectations for a September Fed rate cut lower, from around 60% to roughly 40%. But those odds have since recovered toward 48% over the past week. That means tonight’s CPI could be the next major catalyst for BTC, depending on whether inflation confirms or challenges the market’s current rate-cut expectations. #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SECActsAsCLARITYWaits

🚨 CPI could be the market’s next big reset — and crypto traders should be paying attention. One inflation number could completely change the Fed narrative. The U.S. July CPI report drops today at 8:30 AM ET, and after weaker-than-expected jobs data, markets have already started leaning toward a more dovish Fed. Now CPI has to confirm that story. Economists expect Headline CPI around 3.4% YoY and Core CPI near 2.5%. If inflation comes in softer than expected, the market could quickly price in a more accommodative Fed. That could mean: 📉 Treasury yields 📉 U.S. dollar 📈 Risk appetite 📈 BTC & ETH 📈 Potentially stronger flows into quality altcoins like $SOL, $BNB and $OKB But there’s another side. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the “higher for longer” narrative could come roaring back. Yields and the dollar could rise, putting pressure on equities and crypto. And we all know how quickly crypto can react when macro expectations change. So today isn't just about the CPI number. It's about what that number does to Fed expectations. The real question is: Will CPI confirm the dovish narrative—or completely reset it? 👀 I’ll be watching yields, DXY, BTC reaction, and ETF flows more closely than the headline number itself. One report could set the tone for the next major move. #CPIToResetFedBets #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #AIInfraFundingDiverges $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit