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It's a bit strange
Previously, in 2018 and 2022, the proportion of greed + extreme greed days throughout the year was below 10%.
But this year, up to now, the number of greed days has reached 44. 44/365=12%.
Moreover, 43 of those days occurred in the past two months. Could it be that $BTC's four-year cycle has already become invalid or shortened? For the first time in the US market, 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs have received listing rule approval.
Deep Tide TechFlow: On October 2, the SEC approved Cboe BZX rule changes allowing Volatility Shares to list six daily leveraged ETPs including 3x Bitcoin and 3x Ethereum (also including gold/silver/crude oil/natural gas). They track 3x the daily returns of futures, do not hold spot assets; actual sales await S-1 effectiveness, with no timetable yet. Daily reset plus roll costs, path dependency is significant. Not investment advice."Nonfarm Payroll Boost Interrupted by Geopolitical Black Swan, BTC Surges Then Pulls Back"
On October 4, BTC briefly surged after nonfarm payroll data missed expectations, reaching a high of $87,219, the highest since September 23, before quickly retreating to the $84,000–$84,600 range, down about 1.5% in 24 hours. The geopolitical black swan—the Iranian military action in the Strait of Hormuz—rapidly reversed the optimism brought by macroeconomic positives, causing a single-day market cap fluctuation of up to $50 billion.
Market sentiment shows increasing divergence between bulls and bears, with macro positives and geopolitical risks fiercely offsetting each other. Liquidations in 24 hours reached $328 million, including $254 million on short positions. ETF funds saw a preliminary net inflow of $29.28 million on Friday; institutional demand remains but failed to support the price.
The current price has pulled back about 3.4% from the $87,219 peak, entering short-term consolidation. The geopolitical situation remains tense; the G7 will release up to 100 million barrels from reserves. Oil prices and risk appetite remain key variables. In terms of trading, avoid chasing highs; wait for a pullback confirmation. Pay attention to US-Iran developments and subsequent macro data.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 PONS really caught me off guard with this drop.
From a high of $0.97, it has now fallen to around $0.42, a retracement of over 50%. Today it dropped nearly 20% again, and the big short position on Hyperliquid is still adding, with 14.85 million PONS shorts currently showing a profit of over $2 million.
But I just reviewed Pons' data again and found that the price and the business are actually somewhat disconnected.
In the past 30 days, Pons has done $2.25 billion in DEX trading volume, collecting $134 million in fees, with protocol revenue around $22.7 million.
Most importantly, this revenue is not unrelated to PONS.
Currently, about 80% of the protocol revenue is used to buy back and burn PONS. In the past 30 days, the actual income distributed to token holders was about $16.62 million, with a cumulative total exceeding $20 million.
So now the most interesting question about $PONS has become:
A token with a market cap of only about $300 million, backed by a protocol that can collect $1.36 million in fees daily and has contributed over $16 million in buybacks and burns to the token in the past 30 days—how much should it actually be worth?
Pons had $134 million in fees over 30 days, but in the last 7 days, it has dropped to only $10.74 million, about $1.36 million in 24 hours. SOL's Trap
$SOL — $119.34.
65% of traders are long. But taker buy/sell ratio is 0.65 — sellers dominating.
Textbook setup for a flush to 113.SOL
#USNFPDataCools
#SECCryptoCustodyRules 🚨 Bad jobs data, bullish reaction… so why did BTC and ETH still get pushed down?
Let’s talk about yesterday’s non-farm payroll data.
At first glance, the data looked positive for crypto. Weak employment usually means less pressure for the Fed to keep rates high. But despite the “good news,” Bitcoin and Ethereum still couldn’t hold their gains and were pushed lower.
Why?
#DailyOrbit "October's Bullish Candle"
The National Day fireworks haven't cooled down, but the market has already exploded with another burst.
BTC and ETH almost simultaneously lifted their heads, like two springs compressed to the limit. The recent pullback made the bears mistakenly think it was finally their turn to catch a breath; but a big bullish candle turned the word "correction" to ashes.
The real hidden threat is ZEC.
It is usually silent, but once it starts, it shows no mercy. When BTC rises 3%, it dares to run 10%; when ETH breaks through, it goes straight vertical. It favors the most crowded corridor of the bears, where there is no logic, only liquidations.
The path is not complicated: BTC charges, ETH follows, doubt turns into FOMO, bears cover their positions, leverage floods in. Then ZEC throws out a huge bullish candle. At that moment, BTC's 5% rise is just the appetizer, ZEC's 20% is the main course. Bears don't even have time to set stop losses on their shorts.
October never ends gently. What bears fear is not a slow decline, but a fake pullback. One bullish candle changes sentiment, two change stance, three may leave only ashes.
The market sprouts in despair, rises in hesitation, and ends in celebration. And the bears often die on the last bullish candle before dawn.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔥 $BTC around 84,600｜Bull-Bear boundary: 83,000 vs 87,000
⚡ ETH 2,620 to 2,800｜SOL 117 to 125
⏰ Monday 22:00 ISM｜Thursday 02:00 Fed Minutes
🎯 Key levels at a glance
· BTC: Above 87,000 to 87,400｜Below 83,000, 82,000
· ETH: Above 2,740 to 2,800｜Below 2,620 to 2,660
· SOL: Above 125, 130 to 136｜Below 117
📅 Coming up
· Monday 22:00: ISM Services PMI, expected around 55, previous 55.4
· Thursday 02:00: Fed September meeting minutes, analysts expect hawkish tone
· This week: speeches from officials including Williams, Bowman
🪝 The door at 87,000, BTC knocked on it once in late September and once on Friday, both times pushed back. Can it be pushed open the third time? See you Monday night 👀
$BTC $ETH $SOL #英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% This silver short finally cashed in 😮💨
Shorted at 67.09, closed at 60.02, held for 2+ weeks. One contract realized +547.08%.
At 60.86, I was still debating whether to hold longer. Looking at the closed trade now, I’m just relieved.
My bearish view was based on slowing industrial demand, declining PV usage, and pressure from high US Treasury yields. The supply gap may be real, but that doesn’t mean price can rise forever.
The key was the pullback—not proving silver is #NvidiaRecordHigh 🚨 $AIN — The pump has already happened. Now the red zone is important.
After breaking the 2H compression, the price is already around $0.0467, but the main resistance at $0.055–0.058 is still ahead.
This is exactly where I am waiting for a reaction.
🔴 Rejection of the zone → a 20–30% correction may occur and a sell trade setup may form.
🟢 Holding above $0.058 → the scenario changes to continuation of the rise.
The RSI(6) is already around 97.7.
I don’t open a sell trade just because the price has risen. I am waiting for the level. Brothers, look at these three positions of mine, even I find them a bit outrageous.
$ZEC short, profit 475%.
$SNDK short, profit 90%.
$ETH short, profit 166%.
All three directions are shorts.
All three trends show daily-level bearish alignment, MACD death cross, with green bars getting longer and longer.
None are against the trend; all are following the trend.
But when I opened these positions, I didn’t think too much.
I’ve always felt this rate hike scenario is very similar to the last round.
The current rise is all preparation for unloading later.
When the next rate hike lands, it will mark the start of the end for this bull market.
Look now, bad news keeps coming; nonfarm payrolls can’t pull up, ETFs are flowing out, whales are running.
Yet the market is still holding on, still pretending the bull is back.
This contrast is actually the most dangerous signal.
The current decline is not the end, it’s the beginning.
So my current thought is simple; I’m ready to hold these three positions for a while.
ZEC target is 1000
ETH target is 2100
SNDK target is 1300
No rush to close, no reckless moves.
Stop losses are set, the rest is up to time.
Which of these three shorts do you think will hit the target first?
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Happy weekend meow~ The crypto space is quite quiet ha
$BTC returned to around 84,800 tonight, with a weekly increase of only about 0.4%. I think there's no need to be too definitive about the direction for now.
The price is a bit higher than in the afternoon but still some distance from around 85,500 last night. The recovery has started, but the momentum is not yet obvious.
Right now, patience is being tested. A small rise makes people think it's starting, a small drop makes people think the market is over. It's easy to be swayed by short-term fluctuations.
My approach is to control my position first, and raise expectations only when the uptrend shows sustainability.
$BICO's movement over the weekend is actually more worth pondering.
At midnight it was 0.0212, in the afternoon 0.0223, then dropped back to 0.02157 in the evening. Most of the earlier gains have been given back.
So for now, I don't consider it a confirmed strength. Being able to bounce back and having buyers willing to hold are two different things.
If there is another rebound, I will pay more attention to whether there is continued buying power after the price rises.
If every rise turns into a selling opportunity, then even if the price is cheaper, it may not be worth rushing in.
For $SLX, I will pay more attention to the supply.
CoinGecko reports a circulating supply of about 243 million tokens, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens, so circulation is about one quarter.
This doesn't mean the remaining tokens will be sold immediately, but judging whether it's expensive or cheap can't rely only on the current circulating market cap.
If new circulation appears later, we need to see if demand can absorb it.
I think clarifying this issue is more useful than simply hoping for the price to double. A low unit price itself is not a reason for an increase. $BICO This round of rebound feels more sustained than the early morning, moving from 0.0212 back to 0.0223, about a 5% recovery indicating some support at the low level. 0.022 is the watershed: if the pullback doesn't lose this level, the recovery looks likely to continue; if it quickly breaks, the weakness over the past week remains, so don't rush to talk about a reversal.
$SUI Still cautious for now. The midday low of 1.146 is below last night's 1.185, and the previous rebound didn't hold. Next, watch if it can reclaim around 1.185; if it touches that and falls back again, the short-term trend isn't considered strong. The large monthly gain doesn't necessarily mean the correction is complete.
$LINK Back around 14, down about 3.5% in 24 hours, short-term outlook is not optimistic. 14 is just a round number; a few cents up or down don't indicate direction. The key is whether it can return to 14.2 and hold; if this recovery phase struggles, better to watch more and act less, waiting for the market to confirm itself.Staring at the half-dead sideways movement on the screen, that damn impulse just surged again. The most tormenting thing is never the loss itself, but knowing clearly there’s no opportunity here, yet insisting on finding some logic in your mind to enter during that flat, uneventful price action. If you can’t control your impulses in this kind of market, it’s actually the biggest irresponsibility to your account. Doing nothing now is also part of trading, although this pure boredom is even more torturous than losing.
$BTC $ETH 🚨 $ZEC is already down… but the big money is STILL adding shorts.
This is the part that caught my attention 👀
According to the smart-money data, the number of short sellers actually dropped by 75, yet the total short position size increased by more than $22M.
#DailyOrbit $BTC's surge last night looked more like a "fishing line," probably trapping many who chased it. Now the market is weakening; don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
The contract structure is even more telling:
Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.2065, OKX is 1.33, retail traders are still biased long;
Whale long-short ratio is 2.0224, big players are still firmly holding long positions.
This is the hidden risk—if $83,000 is broken, a forced liquidation chain could trigger a "long liquidation cascade," and the decline will accelerate quickly.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% , risk appetite may not support buying. $ETH $ZEC also shouldn't be taken lightly. Defend short-term first, don't rush to bottom-fish; staying alive is more important than chasing a rebound Someone else privately asked me why I don't open trades every day. Because what I rely on isn't the frequency of opening trades, but the position size when I get those few right. A professional card player folds 80% of their hands in one night; the real heavy bets are only on a few hands—trading is exactly the same. If you enter and exit twenty times a day, the fees plus emotional wear will eat up half your profits first, and even if the direction is right, you're just working for the exchange. Earning less is not shameful; getting slapped back and forth within a range is. Save your bullets for the truly unbalanced moment. $ETH How many trades do you open in a day? You know the answer yourself.There are three things worth noting about the US dollar stablecoins this week. First, they have become major buyers of US Treasury bonds: over the past five years, stablecoin issuers have increased their holdings of US Treasuries by about $200 billion, which accounts for more than 40% of China's reduction in US Treasury holdings. Second, the total supply is still growing: the total is 313.2 billion, with a net increase of 5.3 billion in the last 30 days; USDT's growth rate is only 0.4%, with the fastest being Ethena's USDe. Third, OUSD issued by Bridge under Stripe has circulated about 670 million within two days of launch, with yields shared according to distribution volume. Stablecoins have become buyers of US Treasuries, and the next step is to compete over who gets the interest. $USDT "ETF Double Outflow, Cooling Funds: Rebound Possible, Be Cautious with Chasing Rallies"
BTC and ETH spot ETFs are experiencing simultaneous net outflows, indicating a cooling of fund enthusiasm. This does not mean the market will immediately reverse, but it shows that institutional incremental funds are less active than before. ETFs were once an important source; now with simultaneous outflows, short-term risk appetite is under pressure.
The key is not the single-day outflow, but whether it continues and how prices react. If it is only a short-term outflow, BTC can still oscillate at high levels, indicating spot support, and some funds may just be reallocating.
Be cautious of: continuous ETF net outflows, BTC breaking key support, ETH consistently underperforming BTC, and no obvious decrease in contract leverage. If these occur simultaneously, fund withdrawal and leverage clearing may resonate, amplifying volatility.
Observation sequence: ETF flows → US Treasury yields and USD → BTC spot support → ETH/BTC strength → altcoin risk appetite. If ETF net inflows resume, BTC stops falling and breaks out with volume, institutional funds may return; if outflows continue, BTC rebounds with low volume, ETH keeps underperforming, reduce chasing positions.
My judgment: It is not yet time to determine a trend reversal based solely on ETF outflows, but short-term signals are clear, and incremental funds are cooling. Before funds return, rebounds can be watched, but be cautious chasing rallies. The real long signal is the resonance of funds, price, and macro factors.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Nonfarm Payrolls Landed: Initial Surge Then Cool Down, BTC, ETH, ZEC Each Go Their Own Way
After the nonfarm report, the market first surged then calmed down. Expectations for continued tightening in October cooled off, U.S. Treasury yields fell, which should have been positive for risk assets, but the market surged then retreated.
$BTC: Pulled straight up to 87238 after the data, but the high was not sustained, falling back near 85,000, and today it’s testing 84,000 again. The key now is not how fast the rebound is, but whether 85,000 can be reclaimed and held. If it can’t hold, the strength is just an illusion.
$ETH: Touched 2750 intraday, overall still following the rise. 2700 is the short-term lifeline; if it holds, there’s still a chance for capital to spread and for a catch-up rally; if it breaks, weakness will spread.
$ZEC: While BTC and ETH stirred by the nonfarm report, ZEC continues to retreat. From above 1400 on October 2, it fell to around 1280, about -4% intraday, with a clear pullback over the week. Early high-profit chips are still exiting.
BTC sets the direction, ETH tests the spread, ZEC shows profit-taking. The three do not resonate together, making a sustained rebound difficult. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Besent is speaking out again: No need to worry about the AI bubble, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are all investing real money. Every time officials come out to reassure "there is no bubble," my radar goes off even more. Before a bubble bursts, there’s always someone on stage telling you this time is different, that cash flow can sustain it. I'm not saying he's wrong, I'm saying: when "reassurance" itself becomes news, it means the market has already been asking this question. The same rhetoric is also used on the yield side — "in line with global trends, no need to panic." A trader’s job isn’t to believe or not believe, but to see how prices and positions align. I don’t bet a single cent on verbal reassurances. Do you buy into this?But why am I still in the car?
Because what I value is not the ups and downs of these one or two days, but the underlying logic of the track.
The same was true for $HYPE at the beginning; it wasn't that dazzling initially, and the market even questioned its liquidity and ceiling. But as the perpDEX track exploded, it seized the market gap, and capital, users, and attention began to flow in continuously, eventually creating its own market.
US users are restricted, and some funds cannot directly participate in certain centralized platforms, so many seek a freer, lower-threshold trading environment, making perpDEX a new entry point for capital flow.
The emergence of $ASTER itself carries a competitive meaning. Backed by the Binance ecosystem, it aims to compete for this growing market segment.
So far, $HYPE and $LIT have already shown strong performances one after another, and the market continues to validate the value of the perpDEX track.
In contrast, $ASTER's price is still at a relatively low level.
Of course, a low level does not necessarily mean it will rise; the project ultimately has to prove itself through real users, trading volume, and ecosystem.
But from the perspective of track position, market expectations, and capital imagination space, ASTER indeed still has a story to tell.
The biggest contradiction now is not whether there is an opportunity, but when the market is willing to price it.MORPHO surged to trending, but the market only gave 3.6%
$MORPHO is currently at 2.71 (24h +3.6%), trending. The hype is high but the money hasn't arrived: volume ratio 0.672.
I'm bearish on this hype wave — traffic is coming in, but money isn't; the push to 2.74 is a gift to short sellers.
First, the daily MACD crossed down above zero 3 days ago, with expanding green bars, multiple timeframe signals are bearish.
Three 15m volumes left: 14,991, 10,960, 22,508.
Fee rate 0.00005, open interest down -1.23% from archive, BTC at 84,887 sideways (24h -0.196%), no one is catching the hype.
Resistance above: 2.74 (24h high, invalidated if reclaimed)
Support below: 2.694 → 2.66 → 2.5312 (4h SAR)
Watershed level: 2.66. Holding this level means possible rebounds; breaking it targets 2.53.
The hype cools overnight, first retesting 2.66, breaking that looks at 2.53; moving averages are still bullish, no adding before break.
Action — no longs below 2.74, reduce position on rebound at 2.739, short below 2.66 targeting 2.53, stop loss at 2.74.
Follow me, I dismantle the volume trap in trending topics daily.
$MORPHO $BTCHow fake can the market be on Saturday? The volume ratio is all around 0 point something, almost no one is present. This kind of vacuum period is the easiest time for wild moves—a single spike wipes out your stop loss and then pulls back. Retail investors call this bad luck; I call it going all in on an empty table. Anyone who plays cards knows that when there are few players and the pot is dry, the best move is often to fold and wait for everyone to join. The market is the same—spikes without volume support aren’t worth risking your entire stake. On weekends, I only keep half my position, widen my stop loss, and for the rest—patience is more valuable than position size. Are you the type who can’t sit still on weekends and has to make a few moves?[Old Leek Observation]
$ETC has suddenly started heating up again these past two days.
Currently, the ETC topic on Binance Square has over 1.7 million views, yet the price is still hovering around $8.8.
ETC has just completed its fifth halving: miner block rewards directly dropped by 20%. Previously, each block rewarded 2.048 ETC, now it’s down to about 1.6384 ETC.
Simply put:
The daily new ETC supply has decreased. But the market hasn’t clearly started to hype this story yet. Also, there’s the upcoming Olympia upgrade, expected to introduce the EIP-1559 fee burn mechanism.
Around $9 is the first key resistance.
If volume breaks above this, this old coin will truly start moving.
Entry: $8.65–$8.90
Take profit: $9.20 / $9.60 / $10.20 / $10.90 / $11.80
Stop loss: $8.30This week I flipped my position five times, someone should be laughing: Isn't the bear god always bearish? Trading is not about putting on a show. The direction is meant to be realized, not worshipped — after the expected drop is done, you should reverse your position. Holding stubbornly to a thesis until liquidation is not faith, it's stubbornness. The premise of low-frequency big bets is precisely: when it's time to cut losses, be faster than anyone else. On thin weekend markets, I'd rather hold a half-hedged net long overnight than go in with one leg bare to endure a spike. Your biggest problem has never been picking the wrong direction, but sticking to the right direction at the wrong timing and refusing to admit it. $BTC How many times have you flipped your position this week? #ZEC Pulls Back from Highs, Don't Rush to Bet on a One-Way Move
Cursed ZEC and slept well? Whether 1300 breaks or not, the market decides, don't force it. 😂
$ZEC current price 1365, 24h +2.27%. On the 1-hour chart, after previously surging to 1412, it pulled back due to the negative impact of the non-farm payrolls. RSI6=38.43, neutral to weak; MACD shows a weak bearish trend, with bullish momentum clearly fading.
Resistance above at 1390–1412, previous trapped zone, heavy selling pressure on rebounds; support below at 1340, strong support at 1300—if broken, short-term structure weakens.
ZEC's volatility is much greater than mainstream coins, and its movement is highly dependent on $BTC and $ETH. When the market rebounds, it rises more sharply; when the market dips, it retraces more deeply. Currently, it is in a consolidation phase after a pullback from highs, with no independent trend. Don't bet on a one-way move in ZEC alone; prioritize following the overall market direction.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ETH $ZEC☀️ GM
Employment data clearly weakened, but $BTC bulls still faced massive liquidations. Why?
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): +29,000 vs expected 84,000–90,000
📊 Unemployment rate: 4.2%
💵 Year-over-year wage growth: +3.0%
🔻 Data revision: total downward adjustment of about 60,000
$BTC initially surged quickly after the data release because weak employment data is usually interpreted by the market as positive for risk assets.
However, the market then saw liquidations exceeding $326 million, mostly from longs.
Thin liquidity further amplified price volatility.
When BTC rose close to $87,000, selling pressure emerged and the price quickly retreated.
📌 Key takeaway:
Weak employment data ≠ BTC will definitely rise.
Macro data is just a catalyst; what truly determines whether the trend continues are liquidity, price structure, and subsequent buying.
Don’t just look at the first big green candle after data release; first see if the market confirms the trend. 👀
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #BTC #Bitcoin #DailyOrbitAfter BTC broke through 86,300, it once plunged to within less than 200 points of the previous high, then suddenly violently fell back. Why didn't it break the previous high when it was just a step away? After falling, why did it manage to hold the consolidation range? On the ETH side, it was predicted more than three months ago that the decline would end near 1,500; from 1,505 it rose by a maximum of 86%. Now starting from 2,807, is this a pullback within an uptrend, or the beginning of a larger-scale correction? This will determine where to enter later. With US Treasury yields soaring and gold under pressure, a smooth market trend has yet to come; conversely, the US stock market is very likely standing at the starting point of a new trend cycle. $BTC $ETH🚨 BITCOIN SUPPLY SHOCK 🚨
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are near multi-year lows. More than 50,000 BTC worth ~$4.2 Billion left exchanges in just 2 weeks.
With BlackRock & other institutions buying, $BTC may hit $100,000 sooner. 🚀$BTC
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #StrategyBuys1665BTC AIN has already entered a pure short squeeze chokehold phase at this position. The market shows extremely strong buy support in the 0.045 to 0.047 range, with every minor pullback quickly absorbed. Liquidation data indicates a large accumulation of short liquidity above 0.050; under this structure, the price will continue to be magnetically pushed upward.
Just finished climbing to the sixth floor and sent an order, barely catching my breath before my phone vibrated again, no time to check.
In terms of operation, the current price is 0.0479. You can enter long positions on pullbacks in the 0.0455 to 0.0465 range, with a stop loss set at 0.0438. If this level is broken, the short squeeze logic is invalidated. The target is first set between 0.050 and 0.0515, the core area for short liquidations, where you must reduce positions to lock in profits. If volume surges and it breaks through 0.052 directly, you can keep a small position to gamble on a second acceleration, but do not add at high levels. Volatility is already maxed out; keep your position size below the liquidation threshold.
$AIN
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元
@OKX星球 Grayscale ZCSH experienced its worst week since listing.
A net outflow of $93.56 million in a single week. Assets under management shrank from the September peak of $979 million down to $751 million.
The more critical issue is:
ZCSH once held nearly 3.5% of the total supply of $ZEC. When this formerly largest marginal buyer starts continuous redemptions, it ceases to be support — it becomes selling pressure itself.
Every redemption order ultimately turns into a sell order on the spot market."Why Can't the Nonfarm Payrolls Boost Hold?"
Yesterday, the nonfarm payrolls were clearly good, but prices didn't hold and instead reversed. My view: the weak employment is only temporarily lowering the probability of a rate hike in October, it doesn't mean the Federal Reserve will stop. The Fed is focused on inflation, and CPI is the key. The market is now like a frightened bird; without a thorough drop in oil prices and inflation, it's hard to truly stabilize.
Yesterday, BTC and ETH didn't break previous highs despite the positive news, indicating strong resistance above. Support levels: BTC at 82,000, ETH around 2,600. Currently still fluctuating, I continue to hold my short positions.
500U challenges 10,000: previously mentioned 260U over Mid-Autumn Festival, totaling 920U, nearly completing one-tenth. Next, waiting for CPI data to decide direction.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% PLEASE STOP BULLYING ME 😭 $SAND - BLOWN IN 10 MIN Short: 0.07322 | Stop: 0.08045 3x leverage bhi nahi bacha paya Market makers ne kuchal diya $BTC - WHOLE DAY HOLD = -41% LOSS Short: 83,752 | Cut: 85,423 Ek chance tha nikalne ka Zidd ki wajah se sab gaya Sell karte hi sideways 😭 $BTC $SAND #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到SoftBank's Masayoshi Son's final bet has finally gone all in
On October 1st, SoftBank made its last payment of $10 billion to OpenAI. So far, Masayoshi Son has invested a total of $64.6 billion, with a paper return of 1.7 times.
Having observed tech investments for many years, I've seen many bold bets, but it's rare to see the fate of a publicly listed company tied so closely to that of an unlisted company.
This 1.7x return is almost entirely on paper—you only realize the money when you exit. Masayoshi Son's choice is simple: only by continuing to invest and supporting OpenAI until its IPO can he cash out.
This bet is on whether OpenAI will become the next generation operating system's gateway.
He can afford to bet, but retail investors can only watch.
In this video, I explain why SoftBank had to go all in, and the deeper logic behind this market trend.🚨 This wave of Bitcoin's rise has a very healthy signal that many people have completely overlooked.
BTC is rising, but leverage is actually disappearing
Glassnode data shows:
From the low point in August until now
BTC price has risen about 35%
But the open interest (OI) denominated in BTC has actually:
decreased by nearly 20%, even reaching the lowest level since March
This structure is very important
Normally, if a rally is mainly driven by contract longs chasing prices, we usually see:
Price up + OI up + leverage buildup
The higher the rally, the more liquidation bombs are buried underneath
Once the price pulls back, it’s easy to see:
Long liquidations → price drops → more long liquidations → waterfall crash.
But what we see now is completely the opposite:
BTC ↑
OI ↓
Leverage ↓
Price keeps going up, but the contract market is continuously deleveraging
This means this rally is at least not a typical high-leverage long-driven market, and the market’s vulnerability to large-scale long liquidations may also be reduced.
I actually prefer this kind of rise
Because a truly healthy rally is not everyone opening 20x or 50x leverage to chase longs together.
Instead:
Price rises, but leverage is washed out
What’s really worth watching next is
If BTC continues to rise, and at the same time OI starts to rapidly expand again
$BTC $ETH #USNFPDataCools 🔥 Today’s major news
* NFP: +29K jobs, far below the roughly 90K expected.
* U.S. unemployment rose to 4.2%.
* The weaker jobs data reduced expectations for an October Fed rate hike.
* Gold initially jumped more than 1%, reaching about $4,223.49.
📊 Levels to watch
Bullish scenario: If XAU/USD holds above $4,160–$4,180 and breaks $4,230, the next area to monitor is around $4,300.Let the index and Bitcoin go bearish
There are three stages to judging the top
1. Slightly breaking a new high then immediately falling back
At this point, you can suspect a possible bear market
But it’s only suspicion, the probability of a bear market is about 30%
2. Suddenly breaking short-term support with high volume
At this point, the probability of a bear market or correction rises significantly
I believe it has exceeded 60%
3. Dow Theory perspective
Breaking a significant long-term low with high volume
The probability of a bear market has exceeded 90%
At the same time, it must be combined with
1. RSI weekly-level divergence
2. The index has risen for a long time and risen a lot
3. Volume has expanded before then contracted
Notes:
High volume: a financial term referring to a significant increase in trading volume;
RSI: Relative Strength Index;
Weekly level: candlestick chart with a one-week unit;
Divergence: price and indicator trends are inconsistent, a common top warning signal. #USNFPDataCools WEAK JOBS DATA, BUT WHY ARE BTC LONGS GETTING LIQUIDATED?
The September U.S. jobs report looked bullish for risk assets at first — but the market reaction tells a different story.
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls: +29K
📉 Forecast: +84K–90K
📊 Unemployment: 4.2%
💵 Wage growth: +0.1% MoM / +3.0% YoY
🔻 July + August revisions: −60K combined 🚨 Nonfarm just shocked the market.
September added only 29K jobs vs. 85K expected, while prior months were revised down by another 60K. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth cooled too.
Rate-hike odds dropped, Treasury yields initially plunged, and $BTC jumped above $87K as shorts got squeezed.
But don’t celebrate yet. The long-end yield is still elevated, and October CPI is the real test.
Nonfarm helped BTC short term—but the inflation fight isn’t over. 📉➡️📈
#DailyOrbit Someone asked: Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the downside, so why did gold and $BTC instead fall?
The two fell in different ways.
Gold first rose then fell. When the nonfarm data was released, the rate hike expectations collapsed, with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping from 64% to 24%, pushing gold prices up to $4226. Then the 10-year US Treasury yield bounced from 5.17% back to 5.28%—gold, which yields no interest, fears the long end the most, closing back at $4141. The rise was driven by "no rate hike" trades, while the fall was due to "whether or not there is a rate hike, the long end won't come down."
Bitcoin purely rose then fell. It follows the US stock market and risk appetite; with all three major US stock indices falling, it naturally followed down.
Bitcoin fell to around 108,500. The good news is that the 108,000 support has not been broken, and the 118,000 resistance remains. Bitcoin and $ETH ETFs bought a combined $2.5 billion this week, $100 million less than last week, but institutions have not withdrawn yet.
Don't chase short-term moves; no panic for the medium to long term. Damn, what big whale? Clearly a big sucker!
This guy started building a position a year ago (June-August 2025) at an average price of $3040, accumulating 6500 $ETH. At the worst, his unrealized loss exceeded $9.55 million! If it were us, we'd probably have been too anxious to sleep long ago.
After holding on for a year, this guy ultimately couldn't take it anymore. Today, he directly deposited 6595 ETH (about $17.57 million) into the exchange, cutting losses by selling. His final assets shrank by 12.3%, with a realized loss of $2.443 million upon exit.
This move is really authentic—he survived the darkest night but fell just before the $ETH dawn? He once had an unrealized loss of ten million and didn't run, but now he ran after losing just over two million. The psychological battle was brutal. $ETH 过去的新兴资产往往伴随着高门槛，但数字艺术完全不同：一个钱包、一些 ETH，就能进入这个全球化市场。 而且，这并不只是所谓的“NFT艺术”——本质上依然是艺术，只是媒介发生了变化。 过去一年，越来越多传统艺术机构开始释放明确信号： • 🖼️ MoMA 已收藏 16 件链上艺术作品 • 🇫🇷 Centre Pompidou 成立数字艺术委员会，并设立为期5年的数字艺术收购基金 • 🏛️ LACMA 已拥有 22+ 件链上艺术作品 • 🤖 洛杉矶 DATALAND 于2026年6月开放，聚焦 AI 艺术 • 🇮🇹 罗马全新的 MAM 将于10月9日开放，专注数字与媒体艺术 • 🇺🇸 Kansas Museum of Art + Light 设置永久数字艺术展厅 • 🌐 teamLab 在京都开设规模最大的数字艺术博物馆之一 • 🗽 NYC 的数字艺术机构也正在持续扩张，收藏与展览生态进一步成熟 更值得关注的是，传统博物馆正在从“展示数字艺术”，逐渐走向收藏、保存和建立长期机构资产。 这意味着未来的机会可能不只是追逐已经成名的作品，而是寻找那些今天仍处于早期阶段、未来可$BTC Cross-Market Macro Mapping and Comprehensive Scenario Simulation
Key Conclusion: BTC's current extreme convergence reflects the market's difficult balance between macro liquidity tightening and internal deleveraging within the crypto market. The persistently high 10-year US Treasury yield remains a looming bearish factor. Under the baseline scenario, the price will fluctuate widely between 84,200 and 85,500, buying time while waiting for clear guidance from the macro environment.
Macro Correlation and Scenario Simulation:
From a global macro perspective, BTC's current weak consolidation is essentially the result of the interplay between "macro high interest rate suppression" and "technical recovery after a sharp drop." The 10-year US Treasury yield remains high at 5.11%, keeping the opportunity cost of the non-yielding asset BTC elevated. Meanwhile, the structural strength of the US stock AI sector has attracted substantial capital, leaving the crypto market temporarily lacking incremental inflows.
Comprehensive Scenario Simulation:
1. Optimistic Scenario (30% probability): Continued oversold rebound. If the Nasdaq stabilizes after the US market opens and Treasury yields decline, risk appetite will be stimulated to rise. BTC will find support near 84,443 and, relying on a KDJ golden cross, will rebound to retest 84,938 (Bollinger upper band) and 85,467 (Supertrend).
2. Baseline Scenario (50% probability): Low-volume oscillation, awaiting a breakout. Macro data is in a vacuum period, with bulls and bears reaching a weak balance between 84,443 and 84,938. BTC will continue to digest the trapped positions from the previous sharp drop by buying time, with trading volume maintaining an extremely mild level of 1-3M USDT.
3. Pessimistic Scenario (20% probability): Macro black swan or secondary bottom test. If Treasury yields further surge above 5.2%, or a geopolitical black swan event occurs, it will trigger a broad sell-off of risk assets. BTC will break below the 84,443 support and quickly retest the previous low at 83,884.0; if this level is broken, the path will open toward 83,592.2 (LB).
Trading Desk Operation Plan (Not Investment Advice):
During the current extreme convergence phase, it is recommended to adopt a "breakout follow-up with strict position control" strategy. Aggressive traders may lightly go long near 84,700-84,800 with stop loss set below 84,600, targeting 85,000-85,200. Conservative traders should wait for a volume breakout above 84,938 (Bollinger upper band) and further KDJ divergence before entering long positions. Total position size is recommended to be controlled within 5%, with strict stop loss. The market is always right; forecasts are just plans, and response is key.
Risks and Disclaimer: This content is for macro research purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is influenced by macro liquidity, regulatory policies, and on-chain whale activities, with extremely volatile 1-hour level fluctuations. Actual trends may significantly deviate from forecasts. The market carries risks; decisions require independent judgment.My goodness, don't drop anymore!
What's going on now?
Is no one bottom-fishing? Is no one going long?
Why does it keep falling endlessly!
$ZEC crashed from 1697 to 1307, losing 390 points just like that.
The daily EMA5 and EMA10 have both turned downward, and the price can't even hold EMA20 (1372).
The group chat is full of wails, some are cutting losses, others are cursing.
Honestly, I don't know why now—it doesn't rise when Bitcoin rises, it falls with Bitcoin when Bitcoin falls, and it even falls when Bitcoin doesn't.
There are positive news on the surface, but it just refuses to rise.
Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF has risen over 60% in the past month, about 253% year-to-date.
Paradigm's founder publicly claimed investment in ZEC, 21Shares launched a Zcash physical ETP in Europe, and Grayscale's research head directly said ZEC hasn't yet reached its valuation ceiling.
Aren't these good news? But the market just stubbornly won't rise.
I glanced at my own position, longs near 1307, floating losses over 40 points—it's not false to say I'm anxious.
But since it has already fallen this far, I can't just cut losses now, can I?
Cutting losses means real cash losses; holding on at least leaves hope for a rebound.
Also, the project's fundamentals haven't had major issues; vulnerabilities that needed fixing were fixed long ago, total supply remains 21 million, and halving schedule is the same as BTC's.
I really don't believe it can keep falling like this forever.
I lightly went long near 1307, with stop loss set below the previous low at 1271.
This isn't a reckless rush; it's a small position bet on an oversold rebound.
First target above is 1372; if broken, directly look at 1450.
When everyone thinks it's going to zero, the opportunity is often right in front of you.
$BTC
$SOL
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC Volume, VWAP, and Institutional Capital Flow Analysis
Key Conclusion: Volume has sharply contracted to 1.66M USDT, showing a typical "low-volume sideways" pattern. This suggests that major capital has not entered the market on a large scale, and the market is in a phase of stock competition. VWAP (84,698.3) aligns closely with the current price, indicating intraday funds are slightly profitable. Under the baseline scenario, after low-volume consolidation, a directional choice is highly likely.
Volume and Capital Depth Deduction:
Volume is the core basis for judging the quality of a rebound. From the VOL (USDT) histogram at the bottom of the screenshot, the current 1-hour level trading amount is only 1.66M USDT (equivalent to 19.6 BTC), a significant shrink compared to the huge volumes during previous crashes (often tens of millions). In technical analysis, "low-volume sideways" usually means selling pressure has eased but also indicates insufficient bullish entry willingness, making the rebound foundation weak and vulnerable to negative news.
Considering VWAP14 (84,698.3), the current price of 84,886.9 is slightly above VWAP, indicating intraday entering funds are on average slightly profitable. This balanced state is very unstable; once the price chooses a direction, VWAP will become an important support or resistance. Looking at the Basis (spread) reported at 84,708.1, slightly above VWAP, it shows a slight positive premium in the perpetual contract market, with market sentiment warming compared to before, but no extreme leveraged long positions have appeared.
The microstructure of capital flow shows AVL (84,878.2) aligns with the current price, and the short-term average price line is providing weak support. The current capital conclusion is: the market is in a weak equilibrium state of "stock competition." Until volume effectively expands (e.g., breaks through 10M USDT) accompanied by a price break above 85,000, the capital side does not support a trend reversal. Traders should closely monitor volume changes; if volume continues to shrink during price declines, the bottom is near; if volume expands on a decline, a decisive exit is necessary.$ENA short-term reversal, why hasn't the 4-hour given up yet?
$ENA 24h -2.72%, current price 0.2364. On the surface, it's just a rise and fall, but the real conflict lies in the timeframes: 1-hour is bullish, 4-hour is bearish. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it to the end.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 3.60% away from the 1-hour support at 0.2279, and about 2.96% away from resistance at 0.2434. Putting these two distances together helps to see which side needs more evidence. Looking only at the price change can easily mistake the space already traveled as not yet started.
Volume does not back the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.53 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
It’s easier to understand this phase as an equipment acceptance test: running without load doesn’t mean completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to conclusions. Let the key levels give results first, then discussing direction is more honest. Do you think the short timeframe has already led the reversal, or does the longer timeframe still have stronger constraints? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.🚨 38,000 ZEC short positions closed at a loss of $35M+… but I’m still not rushing to call the bottom.
$ZEC just got hit hard, dropping from 1,695 to 1,303 — around 21% in seven days.
A move like that can easily shake people out, but honestly, I’m not panicking yet.
Here’s what caught my attention 👀
📉 Open interest fell from $169M to $139M on the 4H chart.
📊 The long/short account ratio climbed from 0.57 to 1.19, meaning the proportion of shorts has been falling.
#DailyOrbit Just saw something on the sudden movement list, NEAR.
Let me clarify what it does first, so no one asks me again. NEAR is a well-established public blockchain, focusing on sharding and being cheap and easy to use. It hasn't made much splash in recent years. This time it popped up because of two things. First, the Intents module was exploited for $3.8 million a while ago, but the funds have now been recovered, and the team says the investigation is over. Second, the fee income in September hit a new high for the year, and they also set the perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid to private mode, which is interesting.
But the market doesn't buy it.
Current price is $4.67, down 3.5% in one day, down over 3% in a week, hovering near the weekly low.
The key is volume is gone, only 40% of usual.
From the on-chain fundamentals perspective, the news is positive, with record income. From the market perspective, no volume, no story, funds are moving out. Bulls and bears right now are both stubborn.
My stance: I don't rule out it continuing to grind; if you want to try, just risk a small amount to test the direction, don't really believe it can take off from here. This position is half-dead, the worst feeling. To be frank, these public chain tokens don't show mercy when halving in price. $NEAR The direction of $QNT looks smooth, but the trading volume is casting doubt on this trend.
Breaking down this market move into a conditional test:
Direction evidence: The current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.20 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars; both 1-hour and 4-hour volumes are weak. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
Position evidence: Current price is 252.03, about 10.88% away from the 1-hour support at 224.61, and about 7.13% from resistance at 270. Here, there is no shortage of directional guesses, but what’s missing is sustained price movement beyond these boundaries.
No guessing for the next step. My observation line is clear: reclaiming and holding above 270 means regaining short-term control; breaking below 224.61 shifts focus to the 4-hour support at 223.51. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 329 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
To continuously track this phase, just remember 270 and 224.61. I will come back in the next round to check if the market has overturned this judgment.
When direction consistency conflicts with insufficient volume, which do you trust more?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.