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#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
🚀The 18,712 BTC on SpaceX's books: a subtle line in the financial report that the crypto community must watch closely.
Prospectus data: holding 18,712 bitcoins at a cost of $661 million. Q1 fair value is $1.29 billion, down from the end of 2025.
The profit and loss on this position is negligible compared to the $7.8 billion quarterly revenue.
The real significance lies in the signal: a giant valued at 2 trillion puts BTC on its balance sheet and does not sell during the downturn, a silent but strong endorsement.
Add another variable: the tokenized mirror stock rSPAX.
Good financial report → stablecoins flow into rSPAX, diverting BTC/ETH liquidity;
Bad financial report → funds flee from rSPAX, returning to crypto assets.
Remember: SpaceX's bitcoin won't pump the market. But its financial report expectations have already become a new source of liquidity disturbance in the crypto market. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
🚀 18,712 BTC on SpaceX's books: a subtle line in the financial report that the crypto community must watch closely.
Prospectus data: holding 18,712 BTC with a cost of $661 million. Q1 fair value is $1.29 billion, down from the end of 2025.
The profit and loss on this position is negligible compared to the $7.8 billion quarterly revenue.
The real significance is the signal: a giant valued at 2 trillion puts BTC on its balance sheet and does not sell during the downturn, which is a silent but strong endorsement.
Add another variable: tokenized mirror stock rSPAX.
Good financial report → stablecoins flow into rSPAX, diverting BTC/ETH liquidity;
Bad financial report → funds flee from rSPAX, returning to crypto assets.
Remember: SpaceX's Bitcoin won't pump the market. But its financial report expectations have already become a new source of liquidity disturbance in the crypto market. SpaceX released its first full financial report after the market closed on October 20. Everyone is calculating whether AI will surpass Starlink; the real pricing event is the unlocking.
Last quarter's revenue has already reversed: Starlink $4.3 billion, AI $2.6 billion, aerospace $960 million.
This quarter, AI is very likely to surpass Starlink for the first time: UBS $7.6 billion, FactSet consensus $6.47 billion, Starlink expected $4.9 billion.
But this is not a surprise. Starlink $4.9 billion plus aerospace $1 billion, the rest totals about $6 billion, consensus $6.47 billion just slightly above this line.
Musk said in August that AI revenue in September would exceed the sum of other businesses.
The market has already taken this as the baseline scenario. The real upside surprise threshold is $7.6 billion, not just surpassing Starlink.
What’s tougher is the supply: 28% unlocks on the second trading day after the earnings report, and full unlock on December 8.
What you’re betting on is not the revenue structure, but whether someone will absorb this 28%.
The stock price is $146.03, 8.2% higher than the June 12 issue price of $135, but 9.3% lower than the first day’s closing price of $160.95.
The largest IPO in history at $75 billion has only gained an 8% premium in four months.
I think the odds are off. The upside requires exceeding $7.6 billion to be considered a surprise, while the downside is pressured by the 28% unlock.
I won’t buy before the earnings report; I’ll wait until after the unlock to see if AI contracts renew.
Invalidation condition: AI ≥ $7.6 billion and Starlink ≥ $4.9 billion, both engines exceed expectations simultaneously, judgment void.
Which side are you betting on: AI surpassing Starlink this quarter, or waiting for the unlock to finish?
$SPCX
#SpaceXEarningsThe crowding of contract longs has just peaked and is now accelerating its turnaround.
The funding rate for $SOL hit 0.01% on the morning of October 14, which annualizes to 36.5%. This is the highest since this rally started. It began to drop that same afternoon, returned to the positive boundary by noon on the 16th, turned negative at 4 PM on the 17th, and by the morning of the 18th, it had been negative for three consecutive eight-hour periods. The more negative the rate, the faster these longs at high levels are losing, and they are rushing to close their positions.
Volume is shrinking in sync. On the 15th, trading volume was $118 million, dropping to $72 million on the 16th, $42 million on the 17th, and only $23 million on the 18th. The less the volume, the heavier each subsequent trade feels. This shrinkage usually does not rebound directly, but it signals a bottom. Once any news or event triggers buying, the first thing encountered will be a situation where no one is selling.
High funding rates for longs combined with low trading volume together form the most typical bottom pattern. For the funding rate to stabilize back into positive territory, there must first be buyers willing to take positions, meaning volume must expand first, then confirm new longs entering from the volume perspective. This is a more genuine confirmation than price alone.
The new consensus activates on the 21st, but the earliest SOL has reason to move up alone is when volume expands for the first time in these days.82,000 is not the bottom; it’s just that no one is pushing it for now
$BTC is currently hanging at $82,012, up only 0.5% in 24 hours.
$ETH is at $2,403 and still falling.
How this number is calculated: Spot ETFs saw an outflow of $500 million last week.
Ethereum ETFs had an outflow of $600 million in the same period.
Money is flowing out, but prices haven’t dropped much, indicating buyers are still there.
Where it’s stuck: 82,000 is just a temporary agreement point between buyers and sellers.
It’s not confirmed support.
If it breaks below 80,000, the next level to watch is 75,000.
If $ETH breaks below 2,304, about $472 million in long positions will be liquidated by the system.
The real risk isn’t the price itself.
It’s that after CPI exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike jumped from 22% to 51%.
High liquidity assets are the first to have funds withdrawn.
Those who set stop losses below 80,000 have already written the answer.
#VanEck停止推进Lido质押以太坊ETF
#$BTC $ETH 现在更像洗筹尾声的犹豫期，不是追涨窗口。 你是不是也在盯着价格，却总觉得资金信号哪里不对劲？ 这几天最抓我的不是K线，而是几组互相打架的线索。10月15日Solana上铸造了2.5亿USDC，听起来像新弹药进场；可同一时间，BTC现货ETF五天净流出2.286亿美元。一边在造钱，一边在撤钱，这不是简单的多空分歧，更像人群心理开始分叉：有人怕错过，有人怕接刀。 我自己的感受是，价格还在演"没事"，情绪已经先疲了。BTC从79770弹回82000附近，80K这个位置更像大家集体盯着的心理哨兵，而不是铁底。ETH反弹软软的，说明抄底盘有，但追价意愿不足。SOL报103.96，100附近是短线情绪防线，跌破容易触发一轮"先跑再说"的连锁反应。 链上那笔4890枚ETH的鲸鱼清算，和SOL上20倍多单浮盈约1300万美元，放一起看很有意思：一边是被杠杆反噬的痛，一边是高风险偏好还在赚钱的爽。这种组合最容易制造FOMO——看到别人赚，忘了别人也被清。叙事疲劳也在这里，大家不再无条件相信反弹，开始挑信号、挑币、挑时机。 偏多路径是：稳定币增发逐步变成买盘，BTC守住80K上方震荡消化，SOL守100#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 SAND comprehensive market overview + smart money behavior analysis (data as of 13:55) 【Market Snapshot】 Perpetual 0.06423 | Spot 0.06523 (spot premium +1.56%) 24h +14.9%, high 0.06601, low 0.05585, volume $18.7M OI from 20.5M → 41.8M contracts (doubled in 29 hours +103%) Funding rate -0.0145% (10-18 00:00 was -0.0069%, negative value deepening) 【Multi-timeframe structure】 1d: On 10-02, a +60% volume surge pushed price to 0.0837, then gradually distributed down to 0.0527; currently this wave is a 37% drop rebound. Price stands above EMA10(0.0612)/EMA21(0.0591), EMA50 only 0.0518 — mid-term still a corrective structure, not a new trend. RSI 61. 4h: EMA5/10/21 bullish alignment (0.0626/0.0600/0.0583), volume ratio 3.13x, real volume, not fake pump. RSI 58, not overbought. 1h: volume ratio 1.93x, RSI 65, short-term slightly hot but still room to grow. 【Smart money intent — three key evidences】 1️⃣ Spot leads the rally, not contracts. At 10:00, when volume surged 5M, spot premium rose from +0.3 Last night I almost got tricked into buying by the "Trump positive news" again
At 3 a.m., the group chat exploded.
"Trump said the Iran war will end! BTC ETH are about to pump! Run, if you don't enter now, it'll be too late!"
I sat in front of the computer, finger hovering over the buy button, but in the end, I closed the software.
Then I checked three pieces of data, and felt a chill down my spine:
First, the rebound never happens at dawn.
BTC started to recover from the low of $79,700 on October 15, and by the 17th it had already reclaimed above $82,000. The market moves ahead, the speech lags behind. When the news came out at dawn, the market actually dropped a bit.
Second, I've heard this phrase more than once.
In March this year, he said "the war will end soon" once, and on October 7 he said it again, and the speech at this rally was almost the same. Say it once, oil prices move a bit; say it four times, the market's ears have already grown calluses.
Third, the scariest thing was the widely spread message in the group "Iran will resume navigation in 7 days."
I searched for half an hour, not a single mainstream source confirmed it. An unverified message can ignite FOMO in hundreds of people within seconds.
What I posted in the group last night was:
Slogans are his job, but my position is my life.
Only two things can be verified: the navigation data of the strait and the ceasefire agreement on paper. Until these two are settled, all the "about to surge" claims are what others want you to hear.
After dawn, guess if the person shouting the loudest in the group is still online? Currently, the funding rates for BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE are all positive, indicating that the perpetual market overall still has a bullish bias. However, judging from the spot prices, this is more likely a signal of crowded long positions. Ajian reminds all friends to be extra cautious of such divergences, as ultimately the market price must be supported by spot buying, not just contract sentiment.Price hits new highs, but marginal trading cools down. At 13:47 (UTC+8), OKX public data shows $SAND spot price at 0.06559, up 17.59% in 24 hours, ranging from 0.05576 to 0.06660; the spot trading volume in the past 24 full hours is about 6.18 million USDT, and perpetual contracts about 232 million USDT.
In the last full 4 hours, spot rose 5.99% with trading volume increasing 103.49% compared to the previous period; perpetual rose 4.59% with trading volume up 111.29%. The trend and mid-term trading volume remain strong, but in the last full 1 hour, although spot and perpetual rose 1.21% and 0.95% respectively, trading volume decreased 9.03% and 24.25% sequentially, indicating short-term chasing power is starting to diverge.
Current perpetual open interest (OI) is about 156 million SAND (approximately 10.06 million USD), with Funding around -0.9458%. Deep negative funding rates increase short position costs, but single-point OI and Funding alone cannot prove the uptrend will necessarily continue.
I am first watching if 0.06530 can turn from resistance into support. If the subsequent full 1H candle holds above this level and trading volume expands again, it supports retesting the 24-hour high of 0.06660; if it breaks below 0.06153 accompanied by a significant contraction in OI or perpetual trading volume, it looks more like a deleveraging after a rally, and I will not chase the price up. The significance of $BTC at $80,000: currently, if it falls below $80,000 benefiting a minority, then it will definitely break below, as money only flows from the majority to the minority.
On-chain cost support: The average holding cost of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is about $81,500, while the more critical "real market average price" (average cost of active investors) is around $78,000.
Order book buy orders: Large buy orders on Binance's spot order book are also concentrated in the $80,000 to $81,500 range.
Although there are still buy orders near $80,000, the downward support below it is significantly weakening. Once the key $80,000-$81,500 area is effectively broken, the price may quickly drop to the $76,000-$78,000 range.
Below $80,000 also corresponds to a potential liquidation cluster in the futures market; breaking below may trigger forced long liquidations, amplifying the downtrend.
#机构资金持续流出，BTC能否企稳？ #VanEck停止推进Lido质押以太坊ETF Netflix is scheduled to report its Q3 results after the U.S. market closes on October 20. Going into the announcement, my outlook remains moderately bullish, but several factors deserve close attention. The company’s quarterly revenue outlook is approximately $12.9 billion, implying year-over-year growth of around 12%, while its projected operating margin stands near 33%. My base case is that Netflix will deliver a result broadly in line with expectations, with potential upside if advertising re⚠️ 🔥 Behind the sharp plunge in the US stock market, is the real crisis just beginning?
From last week to this week, US tech stocks have clearly come under pressure. On October 16, $QQQ Nasdaq dropped 2.19% in a single day, the S&P 500 fell 1.22%, while the Dow Jones was relatively resilient. Why did it fall so sharply this time? I believe there are three key reasons!
First, inflation has once again become the market's biggest concern. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than market expectations. Inflation stubbornly refusing to come down means the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates may be limited. The longer high interest rates persist, the greater the pressure on high-valuation tech stocks.
Second, AI trading is starting to cool off. In the past, the market was willing to assign high valuations whenever AI was mentioned. But now, funds are focusing on another issue: when will the massive computing power investments actually translate into real profits? Financing pressure on some AI infrastructure companies has drawn attention, and once tech stocks lose funding support, the correction could be amplified.
Third, rising oil prices combined with profit-taking. Rising energy costs may exacerbate inflation concerns, and the large accumulated unrealized gains from earlier have led some funds to choose to cash out. With negative factors concentrated, panic sentiment naturally spreads easily.
Going forward, US stocks may not continue to fall all the way, but if inflation, oil prices, and AI financing risks are not alleviated soon, any rebound may only be a breather in the downward process.
#纳指100周跌5.5%，芯片股八连跌 $SNDK $MU This round of sideways movement is not simply waiting for data; after CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, the market is forced to make a defensive redistribution of chips. Funding rates have turned negative, and open interest contracts have shrunk within a narrow range, indicating that leveraged longs are actively reducing risk; prices haven't moved much, but the underlying chips are actually changing hands.
First, let's talk about $BTC Bitcoin. The 80,000 level has been repeatedly tested but each time it has been supported. The funding rate turning negative means shorts are paying to bet, while whale positions are increasing against the trend. This is not a bearish market; it is a process where weak hands are handing chips to strong hands. 80,000 is a short-term lifeline—if it holds, the market remains in consolidation; if it breaks, look down to 78,000.
Next, $ETH Ethereum. Ethereum is weaker than Bitcoin; ETFs continue to bleed, and institutions are retreating, starting with it. But its leverage ratio has already come down, and shorts are not crowded. If Bitcoin can stabilize, short covering might give Ethereum a short-lived rebound. However, this rebound lacks sustainability; without ETF bleeding stopping, Ethereum has no confidence to strengthen independently.
Finally, $XAUT Gold. Gold is the only beneficiary in this risk-off process. With U.S. Treasury yields falling, funds have exited crypto ETFs and turned to gold ETFs. In Q3, global gold ETF net inflows hit a record high, and central banks continue to increase holdings. Bitcoin's buying is driven by leverage and short-term funds, while gold's buying is from allocation funds; their patience levels are completely different. After waking up from my nap and glancing at the market, I thought the software had a bug—it crashed terribly, and the long-short ratio actually reached 7 times?
$SNDK current price 1268, the daily chart has been steadily declining from over 1400, logically it should have stopped loss by now, right? But the long-short ratio is as high as 5.09! The open interest dropped from 114 million to 76 million, the main funds have clearly fled, and even worse, the funding rate is deeply negative. Retail investors are not only holding on to catch the falling knife but are also paying money to beg the main players to sell.
The most absurd is $SKHYNIX, current price 899, dropped from nearly 2000, the long-short ratio forcibly surged to 7.22! Seven bulls against one bear, this scene is tragic, everyone is guessing the bottom, but this is clearly a bottomless pit.
$MU is the same, current price 864, long-short ratio 5.39, a steady decline combined with such distorted data means any slight rebound is met with selling pressure from those trying to break even.
My view: The US stock market is closed over the weekend, these tokens have no spot anchor, purely retail sentiment gambling. In this situation of extremely crowded bulls and retreating main funds, don’t be the bag holder. I will stay out and watch; only when these bulls completely give up and get liquidated will it truly be the bottom.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $95 billion order backlog can't stop Dell from dropping 23% in a week.
Q2 earnings on September 1: AI server new orders for the quarter reached $60.9 billion, with a backlog of $95 billion, nearly doubling in one quarter; revenue was $47 billion (+58%); guidance raised to $192 billion.
On October 14, Barclays downgraded Dell from overweight to neutral, cutting the target price from $603 to $574. Analyst quote: "Valuation has peaked, commodity costs boosted revenue, but we haven't seen a real AI inflection point."
Closed Friday at $451.71 (-4.6%), down 23% for the week, the worst week since 2018.
My judgment: The market reads the "downgrade" as "demand falsification," but Barclays itself admits Dell's execution across all lines is excellent. What they are really betting on is that this growth relies on passing on memory price increases rather than selling more products; once memory normalizes, growth will significantly slow over the next two years.
This is not an AI demand issue, but a hardware cycle issue: the $95 billion order backlog is real, but the pricing bonus will expire.
Next, watch two things: spot memory prices and whether next quarter's backlog can still rise.
If next quarter's backlog turns down quarter-over-quarter, the "orders are real" thesis is wrong; if memory prices keep rising and Dell continues to pass on price increases, the "cycle slowdown" thesis is wrong.
Do you trust the $95 billion order backlog more, or the judgment of "no AI inflection point seen"?
$DELL
#DellWorstWeek$FIL is a chronic death coin, just go long to make some profit and then run, you can't hold it long-term because sooner or later it will return to its original priceFollow the contract funds｜The contract position of this coin is decreasing (24-hour open interest down by 38.24%), yet the price has risen by 74.71%.
Currently, there is still $35.06 million in open positions. The positions exiting are likely mostly shorts: closing a short requires buying back, which probably pushed the price up like this.Five coordinates at 5 a.m.: price is horizontal, logic is moving
Liquidity is thin early Sunday morning, yet five assets give different signals. BTC is at 82169; although there was structural redemption in spot ETFs during the week, the main holdings remained unchanged, and the price is consolidating around 82000, indicating that long-term chips are not afraid of short-term inflows and outflows, with direction to be decided next week. OKB is at 115; the pullback to 117 on Friday looks more like premium retraction; monthly burns allow platform revenue to settle long-term, and the ecological activity coupon attribute remains unchanged. ZEC is at 1144; after speculative funds exited, the price returned, but protocol usage did not decline with the price, which fundamentally differs from pure emotional memes. ENA is at 0.1963; holders can not only earn interest but also participate in parameter voting and reward distribution; 0.196 reflects the market's reservation about the synthetic dollar model. RE is at 0.4157; it brings the risk layering of real insurable assets on-chain, linked to the RWA track, currently in a calm period.
On the macro side, US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, and whether there will be another rate hike this year is the key variable for next week; the early morning consolidation is just trading noise, while existing chips and protocol usage are the observation anchors.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $OKB $ZEC
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Is the US stock market crash just the beginning? The real opportunity for ETH might be hidden in the panic! $BTC $ETH
The Nasdaq plunged 4.5% in a single week, marking the worst week for tech stocks since June. Wall Street is finally starting to reassess the cost of high interest rates.
Interestingly, funds are beginning to flow back into US Treasuries, with the 10-year Treasury yield sharply falling over the week. The market is shifting: on one side, risk assets are being sold off; on the other, bond yields are cooling down.
What does this mean for ETH?
In the short term, the decline in risk appetite remains a sword hanging over ETH. If US stocks continue to fall, the crypto market will struggle to stay unaffected, and concentrated liquidations of leveraged funds could even amplify the drop.
But from another perspective, market panic could also breed new opportunities. If yields continue to fall and the dollar weakens, expectations for improved future liquidity might reignite. $ETH
What truly deserves caution is not the US stock decline itself, but whether the yield drop signals easing inflationary pressure or growing market concerns about an economic recession.
The former could open a rebound window for ETH, while the latter might keep risk assets under pressure. #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Fidelity Global Macro Director: A New Four-Year Bitcoin Bull Cycle May Have Already Begun
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Macro Director, has put forward a significant view, believing that the new four-year Bitcoin bull cycle has most likely started.
Core logic: Bitcoin consolidated near $60,000 for a long time, completing the bear market bottoming; the BTC/Gold Z-score has turned positive, which historically signals a confirmed bottom.
My view: Institutional leaders being bullish is a positive factor for long-term sentiment, but a viewpoint does not mean the market will immediately turn bullish. The four-year cycle theory is a historical pattern and cannot ignore the current reality of high US Treasury yields and repeated ETF fund outflows. Confirmation of a bull market requires not only analyst opinions but also sustained capital inflows and macro liquidity easing as dual verification. A single bullish statement can easily be interrupted by short-term negative factors.
Do not directly go all-in chasing the rally. Treat this view as a long-term reference; in the short term, still follow capital flows and key levels. If BTC stabilizes above resistance and ETFs continue to flow back, then lightly try going long; if macro data turns negative, reduce positions on rebounds accordingly. Leveraged trading must have strict stop-losses; do not hold long-term contracts based solely on institutional optimism.The cars are flying into the sky, but the stock price is still crawling on the ground
Musk sent the Roadster into the sky. Compressed air thrusters, short-distance flight, aerial attitude adjustment, landing — I watched the video twice, it’s truly sci-fi.
Then I checked TSLA’s market, -0.4%. The car can fly, but the stock didn’t fly, it even dropped by a few tenths. It made me laugh.
The funniest part is on the other side: someone bet $19,200 in the prediction market on "Roadster can fly for one second," now it’s $192,400, ten times more. The same flying car, some people make money from "flying," others get stuck holding "Tesla."
Honestly, I used to be the kind of person who rushed in as soon as this kind of news broke. When good news came, I chased it, then realized the whole world already knew, and I was the last one standing. Later I slowly understood: the market prices stories not by how sci-fi they are, but by "how many people still don’t know."
Once the launch event starts, the suspense is gone. Flying changes from "expectation" to "fact," and the stock price no longer needs to add a premium for it. That’s why good news often turns into bad news when it materializes — it’s not that the market is bad, it’s that the market has already paid for it.
So next time I see this kind of explosive news, I first check three things: whether the price has risen in advance, whether the trading volume has kept up, and whether I’m the last one standing again.
What about you? Are you ready to chase, or will you let the bullet fly for a while?
$TSLA $SPCX $xTSLA #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 U.S. Treasury yields retreat, can $ETH get a breather?
Notably, another shift occurred in the market this week: as U.S. stocks weakened, funds flowed back into U.S. Treasuries, ending some of the previous selling pressure in the bond market.
According to the data provided, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.146 percentage points to 5.097%, marking the largest weekly drop since mid-February.
A decline in U.S. Treasury yields typically helps ease the discount rate pressure on overvalued assets and may also reduce some of the yield advantage of dollar assets. For assets like ETH, which are sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite, this could provide short-term support. $ETH
However, two different scenarios need to be distinguished.
If the drop in Treasury yields is due to easing inflation pressures and the market's expectations for future monetary policy turning more moderate, then risk assets have a chance to benefit, and ETH may see a recovery rally.
But if the yield decline mainly stems from investors' concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth, with funds merely shifting from stocks to bonds, this does not necessarily mean the crypto market can immediately rebound. When risk aversion rises, investors may continue to reduce positions in high-volatility assets. #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 先说我的判断：这组数据让「年内不再降息」变得更有底气，但还没到「马上要加息」的地步。 市场在讨论的 CPI 和 PPI 双双超预期，我认为关键不在能源那一头，而在服务价格。这类通胀最难压，因为它跟着工资走，不跟着大宗商品走。所以现在利率端的定价大概率是「在高位待得更久」，而不是「再来一次」。 这里有个我觉得反直觉的地方：数据偏热，主流币却只跌了一点点，BTC 还是全场唯一翻红的品种。按老剧本，这种数据出来风险资产应该先崩一下才对。没崩，说明前期那波抛压释放得差不多了，至少在情绪层面是这样。 我的方向偏保守——不看多也不追空，等美联储的口风。真正的变量在下次议息会议前后的措辞：一旦出现「通胀风险仍在上行」这类表态，利率端会重新定价，那时方向才会明朗。 我更担心的不是它跌，是它不跌也不涨。波动率收缩到现在这个程度，两边都在等消息，而这种「缩量磨底」历史上经常以一次急跌收尾，不是慢慢爬上去。 风险也要讲清楚：如果利率端重新定价，最先受伤的是高杠杆的多头；另外现在还是「人多在多头、钱往空头走」的老结构，这种结构里反弹经常是给空头加仓的位置，不是给多头解套的位置。 以上是情景判断，不是操作指令。#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The CPI/PPI in September both exceeded expectations, indeed bringing "another rate hike within the year" back to the forefront. However, the new Fed led by Waller has abandoned forward guidance and returned to data-driven decisions — the current market pricing is for no change in October (about 84% probability), a 25 basis point hike in December to 4.00%-4.25% (about 68% probability), and the probability of "at least one more hike before year-end" is as high as 91%. My judgment aligns with market pricing: another rate hike is possible within the year, with the baseline scenario being December, unless oil prices fall rapidly or financial conditions tighten significantly. Tesla Roadster hype heats up: The market is trading on imagination, not short-term performance! 🚀
From a mid-term perspective, I believe this round of Roadster momentum is driven more by market sentiment and grand narratives rather than a sudden change in fundamentals.
TSLA rose about 5% pre-market, and sectors related to Chinese flying cars and low-altitude economy also strengthened simultaneously. This indicates the market's focus might be on the future tech imagination brought by the Tesla and SpaceX collaboration, rather than actual profit growth next year.
Looking at the timeline, the Roadster is expected to enter mass production only by 2028, and the rocket technology version is not yet ready for normal road conditions. Therefore, its direct contribution to revenue in the short term is relatively limited; its bigger role is to boost market valuation expectations and reignite investors' imagination about autonomous driving, robotics, and the Tesla-SpaceX synergy.
But it’s important to note that no matter how exciting the story is, it cannot replace financial data.
Automotive gross margin, free cash flow, and the Q3 earnings report are the key factors to judge whether the company’s fundamentals have truly improved.
My core view: The short term trades on tech narratives; the mid term looks at real profitability.
Don’t mistake tech hype for financial results, and don’t equate market imagination directly with future profits.
$TSLA $BTC $ETHThe excitement over Tesla's delivery volume is over. This time, I want to look at something that doesn't often make the trending list but greatly affects profits: warranty accounts.
The Q2 10-Q shows that the actual warranty costs incurred during the quarter were $504 million, compared to $398 million in the same period last year. This increase cannot be directly equated with a decline in quality because factors such as the scale of warranty vehicles, vehicle age, and repair items all impact expenses. However, it reminds us of one thing: after the car is sold, the costs are not entirely over.
Revenue recognized on the delivery day is very visible, but the obligation to repair cars in the coming years must be estimated and accrued in advance. Whether the estimates are sufficient and how adjustments are made later will affect our judgment of the profitability of the automotive business. Focusing only on delivery numbers and quarterly gross margin can easily overlook this longer cost cycle.
In the Q3 report, these items are worth looking at together: actual warranty expenses, new accruals, adjustments to existing estimates, combined with changes in vehicle scale. It is too hasty to jump to conclusions just because expenses rise; cash not yet paid cannot be ignored as if the cost does not exist.
A good product needs buyers and must also withstand long-term use. Investors are naturally happy about deliveries exceeding expectations, but if you want to confirm that profits are truly recovering, the after-sales accounts are also worth reviewing. Trending topics excite people, but warranty and repair expenses often better test whether a car can make money in the long run.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 过去半年，美股AI硬件板块出现了一个刺眼的反差：$AAOI 六个月跌去48.99%，$SKHYNIX 同期重挫51.99%，$LITE 也下滑15%。光通信与存储，这两个AI算力最底层的环节，股价被市场按在地上摩擦。但翻开估值，AppliedOptoelectronics的市销率仅10倍，SK海力士市盈率5.3倍，Lumentum市销率同样10倍——这几乎是白酒和银行股的定价水平。市场在用消费股的估值，给AI基础设施的核心供应商定价。 这就是当前最值得玩味的认知差。叙事上，AI资本开支见顶的声音越来越响；数据上，恰恰相反。超大规模云厂商CSP的资本开支预计在2026年仍维持高增长，多家机构预测全球主要CSP的支出规模将继续显著扩张。更远期看，2026年全球前九大CSP资本开支约9570亿美元，2027年预计突破1.5万亿，摩根士丹利给出的2028年数字是约1.81万亿。这不是退潮曲线，是加速曲线。 为什么股价与基本面背离如此之大？因为市场交易的是“预期差”，而非“当期景气”。光模块和HBM的订单能见度其实很长：HBM与高性能DRAM仍是AI服务器的核心瓶颈之一，产能向HBM倾斜导致传统#Tesla's Profit Recovery Becomes the Focus After Delivery Exceeds Expectations#
Delivery data far exceeded market expectations, giving Tesla an initial reassurance, but the capital market's focus has already shifted: after sales stabilize, can profit recovery keep pace?
Previously, to maintain market share, multiple price adjustments somewhat compressed the gross margin per vehicle. The delivery rebound indicates demand resilience remains, but high capital expenditures continue (ongoing investments in AI computing power, Optimus robots, and other businesses), so profit pressure still exists.
✅Positive: Delivery rebound, order resilience apparent, inventory pressure eased
⚠️Challenges: Industry price war not over, new businesses continue to burn cash
Delivery is only a victory in "volume"; only when gross margin and net profit see substantial recovery can valuation truly rise. Volume growth is easy; profit recovery is the key to whether this market rally can go far. Fear & Greed sits at 37 — fear — with the FOMC meeting ahead. History says be careful: 7 of 8 FOMC meetings in 2025 ended with $BTC lower. But here's the twist: at $81.7K, it already survived hot PPI, hot CPI, and $434M in weekly outflows. If everyone is positioned for the dump, who's left to sell? Does the FOMC deliver the expected shakeout, or the most hated rally? #USCPIAndPPITopForecasts Everything was within Ajian's expectations, $TIA dropped more than 20% in 24h, becoming one of the largest market cap declines today. $EIGEN also experienced a significant drop. These two tokens are not illiquid micro-assets; such a decline and trading volume clearly indicate a real position adjustment in the market. Previous buying did not form stable holdings, and short-term funds still account for a relatively high proportion. Additionally, including $STRK, which continues its downward trend, these assets can all be categorized under the infrastructure narrative. It looks like there will be further overselling tonight I would never continue adding floors when the load-bearing wall only has 0.2% margin left. This is my initial assessment of the current structure of $JITOSOL.
A 1.97% rise in 24 hours looks like a smooth facade, but if you cut through the cross-section, you'll understand: the short-term Bollinger Bands have pushed the price to the 87% level, leaving only a mere 0.2% clearance from the upper band—it's like a cantilever structure with only a 2mm expansion joint at the end; any slight thermal stress could cause it to crack. The lower band is still more than 1.4% away, meaning the downward retracement channel is open, but the floor hasn't been poured yet.
Looking at the stress indicators: the short-term RSI is 66.4, already past the red alert line I set at 64, while the long-term RSI is only 50.4, firmly resting on the baseline. This is not a resonant upward attack; it's the upper structure jumping alone while the foundation remains completely still. When I design towers, this kind of blueprint worries me the most—the top design is flashy to the sky, but the bottom core tube elevation is stuck at zero. This imbalance won't hold for long.
So my trading plan is based on load calculations, not emotional guesses:
📉 Short:
Entry: 98.38 (current price +1.4%)
Take Profit 1: 94.55 (-2.5%)
Take Profit 2: 94.03 (-3.1%)
Stop Loss: 108.25 (+11.6%)
Note this risk-reward structure. Entry is set 1.4% above the current price, equivalent to raising the scaffolding outside the upper band to catch the last falling steel beam—if the price really surges a bit more and then turns back, my short position will be built on the highest parapet of that floor. The two take profits are set at -2.5% and -3.1%, both below the 51% middle Bollinger Band, which is the true center of gravity of this building; the pullback will inevitably find support there first. The stop loss at 108.25, +11.6% from the current price, provides a tolerance for overbought failure; exceeding this means there are construction plans I haven't read yet, so I exit immediately.
The mid-term Bollinger Bands at 51%, lower band at 3.2%, upper band at 2.9%—this nearly symmetrical three-dimensional shape indicates the mid-term structure hasn't chosen a direction yet, making it easy to slide down from the top to the mid-axis when hit. The short-term is at a high 87%, mid-term sits at the mid-axis—typical of an artificially inflated top load with an unfirmed bottom.
The $JITOSOL framework itself is not bad; the underlying logic of staking derivatives is solid, but this current 1.97% rise is just painting on a load-bearing column already stressed at 66.4.
Inspection result: top floor overloaded, construction prohibited from continuing.Net outflow of 574 million, but the funds haven't "fully fled" — they're betting in a different way
First, a possibly unpopular statement: This week, the combined net outflow from the $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL spot ETF channels totaled $574 million, with not a single channel showing a weekly net inflow. But if you jump to the conclusion that the rebound is dead just by seeing the word "outflow," you will most likely miss what's really happening.
The funds haven't disappeared; they've become extremely selective.
**$BTC: It's trying, but too quickly.** On Tuesday, it just saw an inflow of 175.7 million, then reversed to an outflow of 261.4 million on Wednesday, and another 82.4 million outflow on Friday. The buying interest has appeared, but it can't hold. This kind of "day-trip" inflow indicates institutions are probing around 80,000 but no side is willing to sustain it first. $BTC is currently stuck above 81,000, with 80,000 as a psychological support line below and 83,000 as the level where ETF demand must return to reach. The direction isn't dead, but it's gasping for breath.
$ETH: The absolute outflow amount is even larger than $BTC, at 320.1 million. **From Wednesday to Friday, it saw a continuous three-day outflow totaling 259.5 million, and the ETF channel currently shows no stable replenishment force. But note a gap: ETFs are redeeming, while whales are accumulating. Around October 10, within 72 hours, whale groups increased holdings by over 166,000 $ETH, along with 15,000 $BTC and 45 million $XRP. On one side, institutions are reducing exposure due to interest rate expectations; on the other, on-chain big money is quietly buying near 2,500. This is not "$ETH is finished," this is a change of pricing power.**
**$SOL: The smallest outflow at 25.5 million, but the signal is the most uncomfortable.** Net outflow for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling 50.5 million, with 12.7 million on Friday alone, nearly half of this week's total. More importantly, the background: $SOL ETF just ended a 14-week streak of net inflows since listing, with a record single-week outflow of 24.8 million. Continuous withdrawals are more worth watching than large single-day outflows because it tells you funds are not just rebalancing but systematically reducing exposure to this asset class.
Meanwhile, $XRP ETF bucked the trend by attracting 11.3 million, extending its consecutive net inflow streak to 13 weeks. **In the same market, the same week, money is shifting from "broad beta" to "selective alpha."** This is not fleeing crypto; it's fleeing the phase of "blindly buying and expecting gains."
---
Here’s something seemingly unrelated but logically parallel.
Netflix reported Q3 earnings after market close on October 20. Its current problem is not lack of growth but slowing growth — revenue growth rate dropped from 17.6% in Q4 2025 to about 12% in the Q3 guidance, the lowest in 11 consecutive quarters. The subscription story has run its course; the market wants something new. That new thing is advertising: a 2026 ad revenue target of $3 billion, double 2025’s $1.5 billion, with monthly active users on the ad tier already exceeding 250 million.
The crypto market’s funding situation this week faces the same question as Netflix: the old engine is slowing down, and the new engine hasn’t fully kicked in. ETF outflows don’t mean "crypto narrative is broken," but that marginal buyers have shifted from "interest rate-sensitive macro funds" to "those who pick assets, positions, and timing." This new group is slower, more hesitant, but also more selective. They won’t come back just because of a single bullish candle, but once they do, they won’t stay for just one day.
So the conclusion is simple: **ETF subscriptions and redemptions are only part of the buying side; you can’t condemn the market just based on a $574 million outflow. But for a rebound to turn into a reversal, you need to see net inflows across multiple assets for several consecutive trading days.** Single-day inflows are noise; continuous inflows are the signal.
Until then, funds are rotating, not exiting. The difference is that during rotation, position size matters more than direction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Oil prices break 110, making the inflation hurdle even harder to overcome (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Brent crude touched $110 intraday and closed at 109.86; WTI also returned above 100. This surge is not just a demand story: Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port transport line is threatened by missiles, attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have increased, and Russian refineries have been hit by drones, triggering continuous supply-side alarms (´･_･`).
More subtly, the International Energy Agency has agreed to release an additional over 20 million barrels of fuel, and the US is prepared to exchange up to 17 million barrels from its strategic reserves. Yet the market still seems worried that the "patch" isn't big enough.
Meanwhile, US CPI and PPI have already been on the hot side, and with oil prices standing high again, the difficulty of inflation retreating sharply increases. If high oil prices persist, the Federal Reserve will be more hesitant to cut rates, and corporate transportation and production costs will also be under pressure (¬_¬).
In the short term, US stocks and crypto markets still need caution; if oil prices continue to approach $120, interest rate expectations may be repriced again. This fire from oil prices is burning not just gas tanks, but also inflation and valuations (；´д｀).
$BZ $CL $BTC
#霍尔木兹再现水雷威胁，油价风险升温 pump.fun has started charging fees on perpetual contracts. Each transaction is charged 0.1%, including opening, adding to, and closing positions.
On October 18 at 09:13, it launched the perpetual front end on Hyperliquid's Builder Code.
Two fees are charged: orders are charged up to 0.1% of the notional value, and cross-chain transfers are charged up to 0.25% each time, both fees are separate from bridge fees.
Hyperliquid's own taker fee is 0.045%.
Calculating: opening plus closing positions, 0.2% builder fee plus 0.09% protocol fee, totaling 0.29% of the notional value.
With 10x leverage, a round trip costs 2.9% of the principal; with 20x leverage, 5.8%.
I think the market is already giving the answer.
PUMP fell from 0.006805 on October 4 to 0.004297, a drop of 36.9%.
Token issuance revenue comes from issuance, perpetual revenue comes from turnover. The same user contributes only once through issuance but can contribute a hundred times through trading.
But the fees are charged based on notional value. The higher the leverage, the more the platform takes, and the faster the user loses.
These two factors align, so it doesn't need users to profit, only to keep opening orders.
Invalidation condition: if the builder fee drops below 0.03% within a month, indicating it prefers market share over fee rate, this judgment is void.
Until then, I will not buy PUMP based on this news.
Which side are you betting on: new revenue or the main business peaking?
$PUMP $HYPE
#pumpfun Nokia's Q2 cash flow is negative; does this indicate poor AI orders?
As of October 18, 2026, Q3 has not yet been announced. The group's free cash flow for Q2 was negative €732 million, including continuing and discontinued operations. This cannot be directly attributed to AI orders: working capital, restructuring payments, and other business activities all affect the group's cash flow. Currently, there is no separate cash flow disclosure for the NI (Network Infrastructure) division.
However, cash constraints still exist. If the full-year comparable operating profit meets the Infront consensus as of October 15, and the cash conversion rate hits the company's guidance lower bound, approximately €1.423 billion in free cash flow will need to be generated in the second half of the year. This is a scenario estimate, not a cash flow consensus, and certainly not a Q4 single-quarter requirement.
Short-term caution: it is necessary to observe inventory turning into sales, accounts receivable collection, and expenditure rhythm; profit expectations cannot replace actual cash inflows. Conditions are positive for the next one to three years: if growth can continue to convert into cash, expansion and restructuring will have stronger support; if revenue growth is consistently accompanied by slower collections and worsening cash conversion, the group's cash conversion assessment should be downgraded, but this still does not justify concluding that AI orders are problematic.How much does Nokia need to earn in Q4 to meet the full-year consensus?
As of October 18, 2026, Q3 results have not been announced. If the group's Q3 and full-year comparable operating profits both meet the Infront consensus as of October 15, using the full-year expectation minus the restated actual results for the first half and the Q3 expectation, Q4 needs to achieve approximately €1.211 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 13.5%. This is a scenario calculation on a consistent basis, not an independent Q4 consensus.
The company previously indicated that the timing of software revenue recognition would make Q4 stronger, but the specific amount and acceptance conditions were not disclosed. The previous upward revision of the full-year profit range came from technical adjustments related to discontinued operations and should not be considered an operational upgrade; last year's profits were concentrated at year-end, which also does not prove that this year’s target will be easily met.
Short-term caution: If Q3 profits fall below this consensus and the full-year profit expectation remains unchanged, the burden on Q4 will continue to increase. There are positive conditions for the next one to three years: if NI, the Network Infrastructure division, can continue to expand its profit contribution, it will better support long-term growth. If significant deliveries or software revenue recognition cross into the next year, and other profit sources are insufficient to cover the gap, the full-year realization judgment should be revised downward.$BTC just touched around 82,000. I glanced at the open interest data, and it's very abnormal. Although the price went up, the 4-hour open interest dropped by nearly 2%. No new funds followed during the surge. The funding rate is close to zero, and bullish sentiment hasn't heated up.
The price is rising, but both open interest and funding rate are falling. This indicates that the morning rebound wasn't driven by active buying. It was mainly a rebound caused by some shorts closing their positions. There is no active buying power in the market; the higher the price goes, the more open interest drops. The contract sentiment doesn't match the current price increase.
Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, the EMA lines are diverging downward. The 82,000 level is holding the 4-hour swing high. This barrier is here, but volume hasn't increased. Open interest is still withdrawing, and buying pressure isn't pushing the price up.
Facing resistance above, I lean bearish. The current price is stuck at the 82,000 key 4-hour level. There's considerable selling pressure above, and without volume, it's hard to break through. Incremental buying is nowhere to be seen; I expect a pullback and adjustment ahead.
$ETH $SOL #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 How much does Nokia need to earn in Q4 to meet the full-year consensus?
As of October 18, 2026, Q3 results have not been announced. If the group's Q3 and full-year comparable operating profits both meet the Infront consensus as of October 15, using the full-year expectation minus the restated actual results for the first half and the Q3 expectation, Q4 needs to achieve approximately €1.211 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 13.5%. This is a scenario calculation on a consistent basis, not an independent Q4 consensus.
The company previously indicated that the timing of software revenue recognition would make Q4 stronger, but the specific amount and acceptance conditions were not disclosed. The previous upward revision of the full-year profit range came from technical adjustments related to discontinued operations and should not be considered an operational upgrade; last year's profits were concentrated at year-end, which also does not prove that this year’s target will be easily met.
Short-term caution: If Q3 profits fall below this consensus and the full-year profit expectation remains unchanged, the burden on Q4 will continue to increase. There are positive conditions for the next one to three years: if NI, the Network Infrastructure division, can continue to expand its profit contribution, it will better support long-term growth. If significant deliveries or software revenue recognition cross into the next year, and other profit sources are insufficient to cover the gap, the full-year realization judgment should be revised downward.Nokia's €2.8 billion order, can revenue keep up?
As of October 18, 2026, Q3 has not yet been announced. In Q2, the company disclosed AI and cloud customer orders totaling €2.8 billion. According to the estimate at that time, about half of this would convert to revenue within the following year. This proves that demand has entered the order stage, but the entire amount cannot be counted as NI orders, nor can Q3 revenue be inferred backward from it.
NI, the Network Infrastructure division, is the key focus for observing order conversion. The company explained that supply constraints have prompted customers to place longer-term orders. Therefore, a subsequent decline in new orders does not necessarily mean weakening demand. The key is whether the optical network and IP business can be delivered, accepted, and revenue recognized on schedule; delivery times, cancellation clauses, and customer concentration remain unclear.
Short-term caution: The order amount alone is insufficient to judge Q3 outperforming expectations. Conditions are positive for the next one to three years: if orders continue to materialize and revenue growth drives divisional profits, it supports sustained profit improvement; if delays or cancellations increase and revenue lags, the outlook should be downgraded. U.S. Stocks "Hidden Bear Market": Indexes Haven't Fallen, but Most Stocks Are Already in a Bear Market
The Kobeissi Letter's latest insight indicates that the U.S. stock market is currently a typical "hidden bear market under a bull market facade": the S&P 500 is only about 2% below its all-time high, but the market internally has already undergone widespread adjustments.
• 84% of S&P 500 constituents have pulled back at least 10% from their all-time highs
• 59% have pulled back at least 20%
• 41% have pulled back more than 30%
• 17% have pulled back more than 50%
• The index's resilience heavily depends on contributions from a few large tech stocks
In other words, the large-cap index is propped up by concentration, while the broad spectrum of stocks has actually experienced a deep reshuffle.
What suppresses valuations is not earnings, but macro interest rates
At the start of the year, the market priced in at least three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by the Fed in 2026; now expectations have reversed—the Fed has not continued easing, and the market is beginning to price in the risk of further rate hikes. Oil prices have risen above $100, inflation is approaching 4%, and long-term rates are pushing the valuation ceiling for risk assets very low.
But earnings have not collapsed:
• S&P 500's aggregate earnings growth in Q2 was about 52%, the highest since Q2 2021
• Nvidia's stock price rose 21% over the past 12 months, while its P/E ratio dropped 46%
• The current forward P/E is about 24x, close to the S&P 500 overall at 22x
• Tech leaders have digested valuations through earnings growth, with macro discounts forcibly embedded in prices
Kobeissi's core message is straightforward: it's not that fundamentals are weak, but macro factors are discounting valuations, and the discount mainly falls on companies still experiencing high earnings growth.
Why this is called a "historic opportunity" depends on the premise
The opportunity is not in "blind buying," but in valuation recovery after macro variables reverse:
1. Signs of de-escalation in the Iran situation, reducing geopolitical risk premiums
2. Oil prices and inflation expectations decline, U.S. Treasury long-term yields peak
3. The Fed shifts from hawkish back to neutral or dovish
4. Earnings continue to materialize, with gains spreading from leaders outward
If this chain plays out, the macro discount currently priced into tech stocks will quickly fade, and the breadth of the S&P 500's rise can recover. Kobeissi even posits a counterfactual: if the Iran war had never occurred, the S&P 500 might already be above 9000 points—this is scenario analysis, not a price prediction.
But reverse risks cannot be ignored
The most easily misinterpreted part of this view when shared is reading "hidden bear market" as "rush to bottom buy." The real focus should be on three things:
• Concentration risk: The index doesn't fall because a few heavyweight stocks are holding it up; once the leaders' earnings guidance weakens, the catch-up decline will be very fast
• Interest rate stickiness: If oil prices and inflation don't come down, the Fed has no reason to easily turn dovish
• Continued breadth deterioration: If the rebound never extends to the other 493 stocks, it's a leader consolidation, not a bull market expansion
In summary
The current U.S. stock market is neither a full bull market nor a full bear market, but a combination of an index propped up by leaders, individual stocks having completed a bear market cycle, and valuations suppressed by macro factors. If energy and interest rate pressures ease, tech leaders with earnings realization and oversold quality stocks may see historic recoveries; if macro conditions don't loosen, the higher the concentration, the less room the system has for error. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Circle reveals its ledger: For every 1 USD earned by USDC, only 7 cents are retained.
The official blog lays out the revenue split for the first time: $1.4 billion income in the first half of the year, $819 million (59%) shared with partners and transaction costs, $473 million reinvested in compliant liquidity, leaving a net profit of only 7%.
The largest partner Coinbase took the biggest share—Q2 average USDC within its products was $20 billion (+44%), and it is also the co-founder of competitor Open USD.
Open USD launched at the end of September, with Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Shopify, and BlackRock joining forces, promising to return "the vast majority" of reserve earnings to partners; Circle responded: tokens that only share profits but don’t invest money are not digital dollars.
My judgment: The market overestimates the immediate impact of the "revenue sharing war"—Coinbase’s dual bets precisely indicate it dares not cut off USDC now; it underestimates the replication cost: 55 licenses, $1.7 billion daily minting and redemption. The premise is that interest rates do not decline; Circle’s revenue essentially comes from U.S. Treasury interest.
The Q3 earnings report on November 4 is the touchstone: if the share of revenue sharing rises or net profit margin turns negative, the "moat" judgment fails; the same applies if Open USD’s circulation rapidly expands from $700 million.
Is this "the revenue sharing war begins, Circle forced to reveal its bottom line," or "revealing the bottom line itself is the moat"? Which side are you on?
$CRCL
#StablecoinRevenueSharingWarRegarding the contract long-short ratio, remember these points:
1) The total amount of long and short positions in the entire market is always equal, so an account long-short ratio greater than 1 means that short positions are concentrated in fewer accounts, with each short account holding a larger average position.
2) The account long-short ratio and large holder position long-short ratio in Binance's official contract statistics are calculated at a minimum 5-minute interval, covering Binance USDT-margined perpetual contracts.
3) When looking at the long-short ratio, confirm whether it is based on the number of accounts or position size, as the same number has different meanings under different metrics.
Example coin: $BTC quoted at 81799, 24h +0.23%.$DNA This back-and-forth move is really impressive #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
With Disney+’s low-cost ad subscription users continuously diverting to lower-tier markets, and Amazon Prime Video leveraging its e-commerce membership bundling ecosystem advantage to nibble away at long-form video watch time, if Netflix cannot produce unexpected signals such as breakout hit series that cross audience boundaries to boost paid memberships or scale revenue from newly expanded gaming business, relying solely on maintaining its existing profit base will hardly reignite capital market enthusiasm for buying.$BTC is moving sideways around 81,715.5, changing only 0.19% in 24 hours, with a volatility range of 1.6%, DVOL at 37.9, and the options market offering little volatility premium. The chip sector's continued prosperity usually transmits through risk appetite: strong chip stocks benefit tech stocks and risk assets. This time, our data does not show this transmission. Funding rates for three periods are 0.0037%, 0.0037%, and 0.0064%, with longs only slightly increasing leverage; contract open interest is $7.6 billion, with no volume expansion. On the liquidation side, long positions at $10.19 million exceed shorts at $7.01 million, meaning those pushing upward were the first to be liquidated. My judgment is that this news won't drive the price in the short term; $BTC will most likely continue to oscillate between 80,751 and 82,050. Conditions for a bullish reversal: volume breakout above 82,050, funding rates continue to rise, and open interest increases simultaneously. Conditions for a bearish reversal: break below 80,751, and options put/call open interest ratio rises from 0.86 upwards. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
My view is that I believe the golden era of this iconic company has passed.Actually, I've always been bullish, but now it seems the situation is a bit bleak.
I think we shouldn't even consider this a bull market or any adjustment with BTC standing at 90,000.
From a trading perspective, reaching 90,000 would have to be done in one go.
It was pulled up during the third quarter of September, which is the lowest cost for the main players.
Just like ZEC aiming for 2,000,
it already pushed up from 1,500 early on, it can't go there now.
It has dropped to 1,100, which means a breakdown; going back up is basically impossible
because at this cost, the main players can no longer afford it.
The same goes for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
We have already entered a major bear market cycle.
Looking at most altcoins, the daily chart has already dropped to a lower level long ago,
and the uptrend has long been broken for $BTC $ETH $ZEC If this is not a bearish trend, then what exactly is a bearish trend? What exactly counts as a pullback?
[In October, I still firmly believe it is a pullback month.]
The previous trade has already broken even, and I will continue to look for positions to short. But at which position?
Actually, I think the current price is quite good:
[81,800 for the initial short position, 82,800 to add to the position, 83,800 stop loss.]
But Monday is coming soon, [if it doesn't drop before 4 PM on Monday, October 19, I will no longer keep this trade.]
The US stock market has strong recovery ability, and I worry that Monday might drive Bitcoin upward, but personally, I think the height of the surge will be limited, so it's best to reserve a position to add to.
[Position management is especially important in this so-called monkey market right now.]
A stepwise decline is the most terrifying.
There are always people bottom-fishing, giving you a feeling of a stop in the decline. Each time, the drop is not much:
[87,000 → 85,000 → 83,000 → 81,000.]
Each time, you think to hold a bit longer, to watch a bit more. As a result, the long position goes from 85,000 down to 81,000, and then you are still watching 90k.
Next, pay attention to [whether the weekly candle can close below 82,800]. If confirmed to break down, I still expect a bigger pullback ahead.
Multiple times breaking down and then recovering, I don't think it necessarily means strong support; it could be continuously exhausting the buying side.
[After the buying side is exhausted, can the next 80,000 buying support still hold?]
The above content is only a personal market analysis and trading thought record, and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position and risk according to your own situation.