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[Even a 400x subscription couldn't save it, Elice plunged 33% on its first day of listing: Is the AI infrastructure story no longer selling?]
South Korean AI infrastructure company Elice debuted on KOSDAQ on October 20, with its stock price falling to a low of 61,000 KRW during the session, down about 32.6% from the issue price of 90,500 KRW. This IPO raised approximately 201.1 billion KRW, with retail subscription oversubscribed by more than 400 times and institutional subscription close to 389 times. The contrast between the frenzied subscription and the collective foot voting after listing is striking.
In fact, Elice's fundamentals are not terrible: revenue in the first half of this year was 34.4 billion KRW, operating profit 10.3 billion KRW, already exceeding last year's full-year operating profit. But investors are not just buying growth; they are also paying for future data center expansion, financing costs, and return cycles. During the same period, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index fell about 3.7%, with Samsung $SAMSUNG and SK Hynix $SKHY also under pressure, and sentiment in the AI infrastructure sector clearly cooling.
I tend to view this plunge as a signal of simultaneous cooling in valuation and sentiment, not as evidence that AI demand has peaked. What really matters is whether Elice can convert revenue growth into sustained cash flow and whether global data center investments can deliver returns. If performance continues to grow but the stock price remains weak, it may indicate that the market's concern is not just overvaluation but the industry's overall payback speed.$APR is expected to be weak over the next three days. On October 23rd, tokens equivalent to 47% of the circulating supply will be released, making this week the most pressure-intensive window. Within 24 hours, the price rose from 0.02357 to 0.03141, then fell back to 0.02886. The failure to hold the high indicates that some are using the rebound to sell. Long positions worth $320,000 were liquidated, more than three times the short positions, meaning the leveraged buyers have already been shaken out once. Contract open interest is about $10 million, which is thin compared to trading volume, so the price is mainly determined by the spot market. Before the unlock, spot holders have more incentive to reduce positions early. We backtested events where the unlock volume exceeded 10% of circulation; in the 7 days before unlock, performance lagged the broader market, with about three-quarters of samples closing negative. The descending trendline and bearish moving averages on the chart align with this direction, and the RSI at 35 remains in the weak zone. Over the next three days, I lean toward a pullback near 0.02357. The condition to turn bullish is a volume-backed close above 0.03141 and holding that level for a full trading day. Backtesting after the unlock day shows no stable direction; this judgment only applies through the 23rd.First, a bit of cold water: seeing a long position opened doesn't mean seeing an opportunity. Core Trader 02 (0x9c062c…00560) newly opened or added a long position on $SOXL with 10x leverage, nominal position about $50,000. I am bearish on the margin for error in this trade, not asserting the price will definitely drop, so don't get excited too quickly.
I'm stuck on two points: first, roughly calculating with 10x leverage, the initial margin for this position is about $5,000; if the price moves 1% against it, the loss is about 10% of the initial margin, not including fees; the actual liquidation point depends on the margin mode and additional funds, so you can't directly take this ratio as the liquidation line. Second, monitoring only tells me he bought, it doesn't tell me if this is a standalone bullish bet or part of a hedged combination. Mistaking one leg of someone else's strategy for the whole strategy is the easiest way to misread intentions. If the price moves against you, the worst is someone leveraged in that direction without setting risk boundaries.
I also admit he might be right. If the price continues to stay above this reference price of about $95.2691, and after a pullback can strengthen again, I will reduce my bearish bias rather than stubbornly hold it for face. These are my observation conditions, not a market that has already happened. For this 10x long position, do you stand long or short? Please explain your reasons: do you value directional judgment more, or the margin for error under leverage?After a technical rebound on Monday, Asian stocks returned to a decline on Tuesday, as key U.S. earnings reports are due Wednesday, prompting tech stocks to remain relatively cautious.
Macroeconomic pressures persist, with Brent crude prices holding near $110, causing market confidence in AI trading to remain fragile. Meanwhile, SoftBank's credit risk has risen to its highest level in four years, further fueling market concerns.
During the Q3 U.S. earnings season, the market wants to see whether companies can prove that AI can generate profits to cover the heavy capital expenditures. South Korea's Elice Group is the first to face this test; due to macro pressures and market skepticism, the Korean stock market saw a sharp drop during the opening.
The key earnings reports on Wednesday are META and TSLA, both needing to provide satisfactory answers to the market:
META: Can revenue growth cover AI capital expenditures?
TSLA: Corporate profits still cannot support the AI and autonomous taxi narrative.
If these answers fail to meet market expectations, valuations of U.S. tech stocks will need adjustment; even meeting expectations will be suppressed by macro pressures. Only an earnings report that exceeds expectations can counter the current macro pressures! The focus now is on tonight's U.S. market performance! #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 After $BAT's price was pushed up by the whales, no one took over the position, so the tokens couldn't be sold.This morning I was still worried about $DOGE's flash dip, but the 50x short position directly gave +361.87%! This drop was brutal 🚀
Look at this green account:
📈 DOGEUSDT perpetual short, 50x, entry at 0.08525, mark at 0.07909, floating profit +361.87%.
💡 Noon technical review:
Why didn’t I panic buy on the rebound or get stopped out? Because the 0.08525 entry was on the resistance side; after breaking down, the target was around 0.079. If the rebound doesn’t hold above 0.082, it’s still a bearish trend—a typical "flash dip continuation" leveraged liquidation.
Looking at the current capital flow: Dog-themed sentiment coins are highly volatile; the main players often use small-scale rebounds to lure longs, then push prices down to sweep longs. The derivatives game is intense; no chasing new short positions, partial profit-taking, stop-loss raised to cost line, the rest set to trailing stop, following rules if it holds above 0.082/0.08525.
This trade felt like the dog whale casually sent me a red envelope.
I didn’t dare speak loudly before withdrawing.
If it really rebounds to cost, I’ll just consider it sleepwalking shorting once.
What to eat tonight will be decided after cashing out. $BTC $ETH
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 Laba S&P 500 Q2 2026 tumbuh 47,4% YoY dengan Energy (135,3%), Communication Services (109,8%), dan Consumer Discretionary (90,7%) di posisi teratas. Di grafik tertulis Consumer Discretionary melonjak 91% di Q2. Akan tetapi diperkirakan hanya 2% di Q3. Penyebabnya dikarenakan EPS GAAP Amazon di Q2 memuat pendapatan non-operasional pra-pajak $53,4 miliar, terutama dari investasi di Anthropic. Alphabet mencatat keuntungan valuasi serupa. Sehingga jika dihitung tanpa Alphabet dan Amazon, pertumbuhOil prices have returned to around $110, but what really makes me frown is not the oil price itself. Guess what the derivatives market is betting on now? On the surface, Middle East supply concerns have pushed crude oil back to $110.70, and the slight easing of U.S. restrictions on Russian energy hasn't calmed the sentiment. The combination of high oil prices, inflation, and interest rate pressure continues to weigh on risk assets. But strangely, last week's outflows from spot ETFs have actually narrowed—about $228 million for BTC, about $320 million for ETH, and about $26 million for SOL. Selling pressure is slowing down, but institutions haven't returned. This is what I find most awkward: prices are hovering near key levels, but funds have no clear direction. From the perspective of capital preference, it's not about who is buying now, but that no one dares to make the first move. BTC is stuck at 80,000, ETH holds at 2,400, and SOL watches 100; these three levels are like three thresholds. Without a breakout with volume, any rebound can only be considered a recovery, not a reversal. The derivatives side is even more subtle—if the funding rate is still positive and positions haven't been clearly cleared, the so-called "slowdown in selling pressure" may just be shorts temporarily holding back, not longs returning. Once oil prices push higher again, the first to be squeezed will be those highly leveraged short-term longs. There is also a bullish path: if oil prices peak and fall back, inflation expectations ease, ETF outflows continue to narrow or even turn positive, BTC breaks above 80,000 with volume, ETH follows 2,400, then altcoins have a chance to breathe. But this path requires volume confirmation, 【$527 million inflow in a single day, is $BTC starting a counterattack?】
The US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $526.7 million on Monday, hitting a new high since September 22. It looks like institutions are coming back in force, but breaking it down, BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed $665.2 million, while Fidelity and Grayscale saw outflows of $83.6 million and $54.9 million respectively. IBIT is the only one with a net inflow in the entire market, so the money is not evenly distributed.
Previously, the ETF had a cumulative net outflow of about $617 million in October, and one day has reduced the gap to about $90.6 million. But this can only be seen as a recovery, not a complete bullish reversal yet.
On Monday, BTC ETFs attracted significant capital, but $ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $103.3 million, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of losses. Funds are temporarily more willing to bet on BTC, which does not mean the entire crypto market is strengthening simultaneously.
This is a buying signal worth noting, but a single day's inflow is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. The key things to watch next are: whether BTC ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows and whether prices can strengthen in sync. If funds keep flowing in and prices hold steady, this rally will look more like a genuine handoff; if it only lasts one day, it might just be a breather after a deep decline. Visa and Mesh are testing a practical distribution thesis: stablecoin spending may advance fastest when merchants need not adopt new rails. Routing and conversion behind existing Visa systems remove a visible friction point, but they do not establish recurring consumer demand. Coverage creates optionality; payment volume still has to be earned.
#VisaMeshStablecoinPay 我最近发现了一条很有意思的美股交易策略：中期选举前期买入标普 500，第二年四月份卖出，过去70多年，历史回测100% 赚钱！ 现在就就在节骨眼，我给大家分享一下。 最近我在研究美国中期选举，翻了一下过去几十年标普500的表现，发现一个挺有意思的规律。 我们平时做美股，要研究美联储、CPI、非农、企业财报，天天盯着各种数据。但其实美国每四年举行一次的中期选举，本身就存在一个值得关注的交易窗口。 策略很简单：中期选举当年10月买入标普500，持有到第二年4月，或者继续持有到第二年10月。 历史数据有多夸张？ 从1950年到2022年，美国一共经历了19次中期选举。 如果在选举当年10月买入标普500，按照历史月平均价格计算： ① 持有到次年4月，平均收益率+14.6%，19次全部盈利。 ② 持有到次年10月，平均收益率+18.2%，同样19次全部盈利。 ③ 如果改成中期选举当天买入，持有12个月，平均涨幅约15.1%，也是19次全部上涨。 也就是说，过去70多年，按照这套历史统计口径，每隔四年参与一次这个交易窗口，结果都相当不错。 当然，这里需要说明一下，前两组数据采用月平均价格回测，实U.S. stocks in storage, optical communication, and cloud services fell broadly in pre-market trading; SK Hynix ADR down 4%+, SanDisk and Micron followed the decline.
Tonight SpaceX, tomorrow night Meta—two earnings reports answering the same question: Has the money spent on AI been earned back?
SpaceX: The combined xAI earnings report includes aerospace + Starlink + AI. Last quarter had $14.1 billion in cloud contracts, but contracts ≠ revenue ≠ cash.
• AI revenue structure: cloud computing power / Grok / enterprise clients
• Cost of growth: capital expenditure, free cash flow
• Starlink cash base: revenue per user, profit margin
Meta: Full-year capital expenditure guidance of $130–145 billion. Watching ad growth, conversion efficiency, profit margin, and next quarter guidance.
Core: The same capital expenditure has opposite meanings.
For chip suppliers = demand signal; for Meta shareholders = must answer the return.
Divergence path:
Only raising capital expenditure → equipment vendors benefit, investors under pressure
Revenue realization + cash convergence → pessimistic expectations can be repaired
Increased investment, delayed returns → even exceeding expectations by a single company can’t confirm a reversal
What the market cares about next: who can turn AI demand into returns shareholders can actually get.On the surface, it looks like the usual daily fluctuations of green and red all over the screen, but underneath, the preference of funds has quietly shifted seats. Have you noticed that the price is lively, but the money is quiet? My biggest impression from watching the market these past two days is that the rebound seems quite active, but the batch of money that truly decides the rhythm hasn't rushed to show its stance. The actions on the institutional side are more worth watching than short-term price ups and downs, because once they pull back, the market will first show a weak rebound rather than a direct crash. This sequence is very important; many position mistakes come from mistaking weakness for accumulation. I noted in my own diary: I was too eager to wait for altcoins to catch up, and ended up ignoring the order of capital return. The corrected approach is to first see who gets continuous net inflows, rather than guessing who will rally first. $BTC's advantage lies in its more mature allocation base and smoother reception; once the market stabilizes, it is usually the first asset to be reconsidered. This is a bullish path, but the premise is that the stabilization is real, not just a brief bounce followed by weakness. On the $ETH side, I watch two signals: changes in spot ETF funds and whether ETH/BTC can stop falling and stabilize. If BTC stabilizes first but ETH/BTC remains weak, it means money is still staying in the most familiar place and hasn't moved outward. The sentiment for altcoins will be suppressed; even with narratives like ZEC, they are more likely to become short pulses rather than sustained trends. Where is the risk? One is that the rebound is priced in too early; the other is that capital return only stops at the top, causing the structure to look narrower and narrower. I prefer to slow down the position rhythm by half a beat, waiting for continuous net inflows to confirm before adding, rather than at the first#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 I am still bullish on SpaceX, but I won't chase above 150 at all.
On October 13, it closed down 4.2%, retreating from 171.09 on October 5 to around 157.
This drop is not due to fundamentals: FAA just accepted its environmental assessment application this Tuesday to raise the annual launch limit at Starship base from 25 to 456 times, and annual landings to 912 times; Falcon 9 just completed its 35th commercial resupply mission to the ISS on Tuesday; Morgan Stanley reiterated a target price of 300, saying it is "cheap and getting cheaper."
What is suppressing the stock price is the capital side: the company is negotiating about $40 billion financing to buy Nvidia chips (about $10 billion bank loans + $30 billion investment-grade debt), and starting October 9, the first batch of about 328 million shares will be unlocked, with an even bigger batch after the Q3 report.
Fundamentals are accelerating, chips are increasing, so at this time, don't chase highs, only buy on pullbacks.
The direction is bullish, waiting for a pullback.
Current price is about 157.51, with orders placed at 151-153, 143-145, 133-135, stop loss at 126, first target 197.
The Q3 report will be released after market close on November 5, which is the next real variable.$BTC $ETH $SOL 【Volume-Based Market Observation】
It was expected that the rebound market could proceed steadily, but it turned out to be another concentrated liquidation targeting the bulls. Total liquidations in 24 hours reached 155 million, with long liquidations accounting for nearly 70%, clearly showing that the bulls were heavily harvested.
BTC and ETH are the hardest hit in liquidations, with BTC longs accounting for 81.6% of its total liquidations, and ETH longs 65%, indicating many people chased the rebound by going long and were directly taken out by the market. Second-tier assets like SOL and ZEC also mainly saw long liquidations, with red short liquidation blocks scattered and no obvious large-scale stop-loss among the shorts.
From a sentiment perspective, this is a long washout during the rebound. Many were triggered by the short-term recovery to fear missing out, hastily adding leverage to chase the rise, and the market then followed with a sharp drop, clearing out these newly entered long positions. Shorts were not massively squeezed, meaning this is not yet a signal of a one-sided strengthening.
What to watch next: whether longs can quickly regain lost ground after the washout; if the rebound lacks strength, market sentiment will turn cautious again.
Key observation points: whether long liquidations continue to expand, whether BTC’s key support holds, and ETF capital flows.There was a small rebound last night, and platform coins also rose!
$BNB around 728, 24h +0.6%, a ballast stone, driven by the depth of the BNB Chain ecosystem rather than speculative heat, not very elastic to drops, a typical defensive type.
$HYPE around 79, 24h +1%, funding rate +0.008%, longs are paying, indicating some are still betting on the bulls. Continuous burns + protocol revenue verified money printing narrative remains intact, the only one among the three with real cash flow.
$OKB around 114, dropped 4.5% on 10/15, the weakest, highly correlated with BTC purely following the market, eagerly waiting for ecosystem catalysts, otherwise just a volatile follower.
Platform coins are about cash flow; HYPE has the strongest logic, BNB is defensive, OKB is waiting for the wind.When prices fall, the group chat is full of "It's over," "The bull market is over," "It will halve again"... 😂 Yet very few actually dare to buy.
But once prices rise for several consecutive days and break through a key level, the moments on Moments and Weibo instantly become lively, with target prices shouted from 80,000 directly to 100,000, 120,000, fearing missing the next big surge.
Fear when prices fall, rush when they rise. 🤷
$BTC is currently fluctuating around 82,000-83,500, basically holding above the 50-day moving average near 80,600. Support below is seen at 80,000-81,000, with resistance above at 85,000.
$ETH is consolidating around 2,400, holding the 200-day moving average near 2,345, with short-term resistance at 2,480-2,500. The overall structure is intact but momentum is moderate; an effective breakout is needed to open a major direction.
Looking at a longer timeline, Bitcoin indeed rose more than 40% in Q3, and ETFs previously saw large capital inflows. Although short-term disruptions from the Fed meeting and inflation data exist, the long-term supply and demand pattern has not worsened.
True opportunities often hide when everyone else dares not touch them. Waiting until the market heats up to chase usually means prices are already expensive.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 $BTC ETF brought in $527 million yesterday! Don't get too excited!!!
Brothers, seeing the ETF net inflow of $527 million yesterday, do you think the big coin is stable?
Don't be silly! Look closely, it's all BlackRock buying, while the others are actually quietly selling!
The main force is pulling up the price to absorb chips while covering for retail investors to enter and lift the price. As a result, the market corrected directly today, and those who chased high yesterday are fully trapped!
Now the technical side continues to weaken, and the rebound is completely powerless. At this time, don't impulsively chase longs; the main force may reverse and smash the market at any time. This is a perfect opportunity for us to short on rallies and take short-term profits!
Still continuing today's morning strategy, a weak rebound is a good time to open shorts! The first target is the 80000 integer mark, the second target is 78000!
$ZEC $SOL #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ It's really brutal; Korean stocks are once again being jointly sold short by foreign institutional investors. Hynix has already been halved in this panic atmosphere. Can it recover after this combined beating?
This drop really can't be blamed on Hynix. It's not due to poor performance; it's hurt by rising crude oil prices. High interest rates have caused a global tech stock crash + collective withdrawal by foreign institutions + emotional stampede, creating this tragedy.
This drop has little to do with Hynix itself. The main reasons are threefold:
1. Crude oil is the master switch, putting pressure on U.S. bonds. The Korean stock market is one of the markets with the highest foreign ownership, so foreign institutions are collectively fleeing.
From September to October, foreign investors net sold 12 trillion KRW worth of Hynix shares, directly halving Hynix’s price. The collective selling pressure was too much for retail investors to absorb.
2. The previous 55 trillion KRW semiconductor stock buyback plan that supported the stock price has now officially ended, with no follow-up support.
3. Global memory stocks are collectively falling. Hynix is a leveraged amplified version; with SanDisk and Micron collapsing in succession, and Hynix being the HBM leader, the combined effect is even more severe.
To recover in the short term:
First, crude oil must fall.
Second, U.S. bond yields must decline.
Third, foreign capital must gradually return.
In the long term, recovery is just a matter of time because this is an emotion-driven drop caused by crude oil staying above 100, creating pressure. Once energy inflation from crude oil eases, capital will slowly flow back.
Because Hynix’s industry position remains, its performance is gradually improving, and AI computing power is shifting from training to inference, storage demand will expand again. So a rebound is just a matter of time.
In the short term, expect Hynix to fluctuate, consolidate, and form a bottom. In the long term, Hynix is still a buy and expected to rise.
Currently, Hynix is priced at 917, and it’s perfectly feasible to slowly go long with 3x leverage, buying in batches at 900-850-800. The cycle won’t be too long since it’s already on the Nasdaq spaceship.#Strive large-scale accumulation, Strategy's buyback scale exceeds coin purchases
In the past, these companies would just mindlessly buy once they got the money, but now each has a completely different plan.
First, look at Strive, a typical aggressive player. In one week, they swept up another 4,045 BTC, with total holdings approaching 37,000 BTC. Their CEO is very straightforward, aiming to continuously increase the coin content per share. This move is actually very clever, equivalent to using a traditional company's shell to indirectly add BTC leverage for shareholders.
Next, look at the Ethereum whale BitMine, which follows an interest-earning strategy. They increased their holdings by over 12,000 ETH, with total holdings accounting for nearly 5% of the entire Ethereum circulating supply. The most ruthless part is that most of these are staked, earning on both ends—benefiting from coin price appreciation and network interest.
The most interesting is the veteran player Strategy. This week, they symbolically bought only 267 BTC but then spent $193 million to buy back their preferred shares. What does this indicate? It shows that large funds are starting to be more calculated at this stage. Under the current macro environment, the cost-effectiveness of buying coins is temporarily not as high as buying back their own stock to stabilize the base.
Whether they continue aggressive buying, earn interest, or do buybacks, at least it shows institutional funds are still in this pool, not completely withdrawing, just finding different ways to weather this winter. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC $ETH $ZEC
### Sectors Where Funds Are Concentrating
1. **Privacy Coin Sector**: This sector has the highest fund attention today. ZEC and XMR are clearly attracting capital. Funds tend to favor this sector as a safe haven narrative; when the overall market is unstable, funds like to hide here, with frequent pulse-like movements.
2. **AI Computing Power Sector**: Funds are making small back-and-forth trades, such as TAO and WLD. This is intermittent rotation; after a rise, a pullback is common, and sustainability is generally limited.
3. **Storage Sector** (the $FIL you care about): Only a small amount of short-term funds are playing here. It’s leftover capital making minor moves, not a main theme. There was a rally a few days ago, but most funds have now withdrawn. It can only passively rebound with the overall market and struggles to strengthen independently.
4. **SOL Ecosystem Small Coins**: A small number of speculative funds are quickly entering and exiting. These small coins show strong explosive potential but also heavy dumping, making them very risky.
### Simple Summary
Currently, market funds are conservative. Most funds are either watching or hiding in privacy coins for safety, with no major leading sectors. Storage $FIL is just a secondary rotation, not the main focus of current funds. In this market, avoid chasing high-priced altcoins; rotations are too fast, and it’s easy to buy at the top.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 #芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 1.61%, ending an eight-day losing streak, with memory stocks leading the gains. But Old Mo says this is an oversold rebound, not a reversal.
Barclays bluntly states that the "best phase" of AI trading is over. The core problem lies in financing: cloud providers' capital expenditure next year is about 1.2 trillion, at least 35% of which must come from bond issuance. CoreWeave's bond yields have soared to 15%. Goldman Sachs warns that if credit tightens, the semiconductor industry may face an "order cliff" in the next two years. This week's earnings reports from Meta and others will be the litmus test—the market wants monetization, not just promises.
BTC current price is about 82,200, with support at 81,400-81,700 and resistance at 83,000. For those with positions, set stop-loss below 80,500; for those without positions, wait for a pullback to support with reduced volume to stabilize before entering—don't chase the rally.
Whether the AI market can continue depends not on K-lines but on earnings reports. What do you think? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 📊 Daily Brief｜October 20, 2026
🌐 Market: Total market cap around $2.84 trillion, BTC Dominance about 57.7%, funds still favor BTC. BTC around $82K–83K, currently testing the key level you’re watching at $82,800. The market overall has shifted from a decline to a consolidation and recovery phase.
💰 Volume/Funds: Recent 24h total market turnover is about $60–75 billion, still not reaching the sustained volume needed for a full-scale rally. BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $229 million last week, but on October 19 suddenly had a net inflow of $526.7 million, showing a clear improvement in funding.
📈 Phase: Bull Score 57/100; Altcoin Season 57/100;
Assessment = Early bull/recovery preparation phase. Altcoins are spreading but have not yet reached the true altcoin season standard of 75 points.
🚀 Potential Coin: PONS.
💡 Quote of the day: The ETF has already turned around, but the price hasn’t fully caught up yet; 82,800 is the threshold, 90,000 is the starting gun — currently, you should position early, but it’s not yet time to go all in.Both BTC and ETH are recovering, but ETF funds have not yet turned around together
BTC returned to around $82,000 in early trading, and ETH is hovering around $2,400. It looks like both have stabilized a bit, but I don't want to call this small rebound a reversal just yet.
Looking at the most recent full trading week (October 12–16), the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $228.4 million, and the ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $320.1 million. The direction is the same—outflows; the intensity differs, with ETH outflows exceeding BTC by about $91.7 million. At least for now, there’s no sign that "institutions have come back to buy"; it seems more like prices have stopped falling first, while funds remain cautious. ETF flows don’t represent the entire market’s capital, but they are an important buying force in this rally and can’t be ignored.
I will watch two things: whether BTC can hold $82,000 and reclaim $83,000, and whether ETH can get back above $2,450; then see if ETFs continuously turn to net inflows. Price recovery followed by capital inflow makes the rebound more credible. Otherwise, I’d rather do less and not mistake a stop in the decline for a market reversal.
Do you think the buying has returned first this time, or have the shorts just taken a breather?
$BTC #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ $ETH $SOL $ETH is running, but the three run differently, don't treat it as the same thing.
$BTC: Fidelity FBTC outflow of 83.63 million, BlackRock IBIT inflow of 665 million, net inflow of 527 million overall — selling pressure hasn't disappeared, it's just been absorbed. 81823 is the most honest level; only if it recovers can we talk about the continuation of the rebound, failure to recover means consolidation and consumption between 80781.
ETH is the most worrisome: Fidelity's retreat is more decisive than BTC's, institutions are reducing positions rather than waiting; supported at 2380–2390, moving averages at 2410–2430 are pressing down, each high is lower than the last, capital pressure is structural — sellers are more urgent than buyers.
$SOL is the most conflicted: ETF outflow is the smallest, yet the price is pressed near 100, 50-day EMA at 106.73 is the ceiling, 200-day EMA at 98.61 is the last defense; on-chain active addresses hit a 13-month high, daily new wallets 1.7 million, but ETF is still withdrawing — more users but less investment, this divergence means either the ETF is mistaken or the price will capitulate first.
In 24 hours, long positions exploded to 104 million, short positions were also liquidated; don't believe "it should rise after falling too much" under this two-way squeeze. Macro-wise, the probability of no action in October is about 79%, but tail risks of rate hikes remain after CPI and PPI exceeded expectations. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ TSMC's earnings report shows truly strong growth, but there is also a notable change to watch.
In Q3 2026, net profit increased by 68.7% year-over-year, revenue reached $46.72 billion, up 41.2% year-over-year, with earnings per ADR at $4.60.
Advanced processes of 7nm and below have contributed 79% of wafer revenue, with 2nm accounting for 8%.
More importantly, TSMC expects Q4 revenue to reach $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, even higher than Q3. This indicates that demand for AI and advanced processes remains very strong.
However, profit margins are starting to face pressure.
Q3 gross margin was 66.4%, which, although significantly higher year-over-year, declined by 1.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The main reason is the cost from ramping up 2nm capacity, and upcoming overseas factory costs will continue to have an impact.
My view is that TSMC currently does not lack demand; the real test is whether it can massively expand production while maintaining profit margins.
The Q4 gross margin guidance is 65%–67%. Let's see if they can hold steady!
Long-term, I remain optimistic about TSMC.
$TSM #USStocks #TSMC #EarningsReport $UNI futures have officially launched on CME, offering two contract sizes and supporting 24/7 trading. However, as everyone knows, the market had already priced in the positive news in advance. On September 22, the day the futures were announced, UNI surged nearly 20%. Nevertheless, this event remains symbolic. It not only adds a token contract to a traditional exchange but also enables institutions to express their price views on DeFi assets through standardized derivatives. The relatively standardized rules, margin, and clearing processes of futures may improve price discovery in some markets and transmit to the UNI spot market.$ETH is running, but the three behave differently, don't treat it as the same thing.
$BTC: Fidelity FBTC outflow of 83.63 million, BlackRock IBIT inflow of 665 million, net inflow of 527 million overall — selling pressure hasn't disappeared, it has been absorbed. 81823 is the most honest level; only if it recovers can we talk about the continuation of the rebound, failure to recover means consolidation and consumption between 80781.
ETH is the most worrisome: Fidelity's retreat is more decisive than BTC, institutions are reducing positions rather than waiting; supported at 2380–2390, moving averages at 2410–2430 are pressing down, each high is lower than the last, capital pressure is structural — sellers are more urgent than buyers.
$SOL is the most conflicted: ETF outflow is the smallest, yet price is pressed near 100, 50-day EMA at 106.73 is resistance, 200-day EMA at 98.61 is the last defense; on-chain active addresses hit a 13-month high, daily new wallets 1.7 million, but ETF is still withdrawing — more users but less investment, this divergence means either ETF is mistaken or price will capitulate first.
In 24 hours, long positions exploded by 104 million, short positions were also cut, don't believe "after falling a lot it should rise." Macro-wise, the probability of no action in October is about 79%, but after CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, the risk of the rate hike tail has not been cleared.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ The corporate treasury narrative of $SOL (DAT) recently had a rather interesting counterexample 🧐
On October 19, SkyAI disclosed that the company has sold all its SOL holdings and is now holding a large amount of cash to prepare for a stock buyback.
This move is somewhat dramatic 😂
A few years ago, when the crypto treasury concept was booming, listed companies competed to stuff BTC and SOL onto their balance sheets, as if just buying coins could conveniently gain a valuation premium in the capital market.
But now, some companies are starting to do the opposite...
Actually, it's not hard to understand. When a company thinks buying back its own stock is more cost-effective, continuing to hold coins may not be the best capital allocation.
Of course, one company's decision doesn't represent the entire industry; but at least it reminds us that corporate treasury coin holdings demand can also change.
Public companies ultimately have to do the economic math; storytelling can't go on forever.
#MSCI新规冲击财库股，Strategy公开反对 @OKX星球 Hold on to the AAPL cash cow, holding good companies will bring good returns, steady rise $AAPL $ARB broke below the previous low, no buying for now
The 5-minute candle for ARB just closed at 0.19088 USDT, already below the low of the past few hours at 0.19232 USDT. I don't plan to buy at this level because the price is below the lower boundary of the range, and the reference high of 0.20074 is currently out of reach; the short-term structure is weak.
The recent 15-minute spot trading volume is about 3.12 times the average per 15 minutes over the previous 3 hours, while the price dropped 1.21%. The volume-increasing downward candle makes me more inclined to wait and see rather than chase a rebound.
My approach is: wait for the next 5-minute close to move back above 0.19232 USDT before reassessing long opportunities. Chasing shorts now is uncomfortable since the price has already dropped significantly and there is no new reference point below.美股大额挂单密集，存储与半导体成了新的关注焦点，买卖价到底在哪里？
#芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？
10月20日美股合约链上53个地址的77组持仓布下百万美元级大额相关或单边订单计划。从现价附近加空/减仓，到更深回撤分批买入，不同标的呈现各自价格区间，存储与半导体板块已出现近端信号。
为什么是存储于半导体板块？
1.存储长期为链上聪明钱重点：美光（MU）、闪迪（SNDK）、SK海力士（SKHX/SKHY）反复出现大额多空切换、止盈卖单与低位分批接货；SOXL、DRAM常伴随。
2.板块回调后反弹，与AI需求、供需缺口共振，挂单活跃而成交稀疏，反映意图与压力而非全面开火。
接下来重点关注：
$MU 反弹后约900美元附近，历史低位接货常在800-950；
$SNDK 在1300-1370区间，上下方止盈与接货并存；
$SKHY 在900-940附近，历史上现价下方7%-11%常有接货买单、上方有减仓卖单。
操作建议：
盯紧MU、SNDK、SKHX挂单密集区与OI。
现价附近若加空/减仓则减仓观望；回落至历史接货区再小仓分批试错。
单笔风险≤总资金2%，设止损。$CL Mainstream, Korean stocks, US stocks, the top 20 by market cap are mostly in the red, all declining across the board?
Only crude oil hasn't fallen; institutional funds are moving to hedge. This shock is expected to have a significant impact.
The Korean stock market has suffered a heavy blow, tech stocks are under pressure, there is clear divergence within the US stock market, and the crypto market also needs to be wary of a chain reaction. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain high, reflecting ongoing tensions in the Middle East and risks to energy supply.
What does this mean?
First, the market is beginning to reassess risk. When inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks coexist, capital may reduce exposure to high-volatility assets.
Second, high crude oil prices may increase inflationary pressure. If energy prices continue to rise, the Federal Reserve's room to cut rates may be limited, which is unfavorable for the crypto market.
Third, Bitcoin cannot be analyzed solely by its own candlestick chart. If global risk appetite continues to decline and institutional funds reduce risk exposure, the crypto space may also be dragged down The earnings report battle royale continues with $META this time.
The earnings report is due early morning on the 22nd Beijing time, and my pick is Yes: GAAP EPS above $6.31.
What I’m bullish on is still its advertising business.
Last quarter revenue grew 28%, ad impressions grew 14%, and average ad price grew 12%. More ads sold and prices rising give me more confidence than just hearing AI stories.
But flipping to the profit page, it’s not so easy.
Last quarter EPS was $6.18, and operating margin dropped from 43% year-over-year to 31%. Revenue is growing fast, but expenses are growing faster.
This includes $2.4 billion in litigation-related costs and $1.18 billion in severance fees.
My Yes bet is that ad growth can continue, and the pressure from these costs will ease, allowing profits to recover a bit. This is my judgment, not the company saying these costs won’t happen again.
From $6.18 to $6.31 looks like just $0.13 difference, but it’s not just about selling a bit more ads to get there. AI-related depreciation, labor costs, or new litigation expenses could eat up that margin.
So this time I’m not calling it stable, nor am I boosting myself with “long-term bullish on Meta.” The question is only about this quarter’s GAAP EPS; let’s see if it passes when the results come out 😂
#OKX US Earnings Season #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
[Volume and Market Observation]
Many people can't help but call for a reversal when they see a rebound, but the persistent outflow of ETFs remains a thorn hanging overhead. Whether this rebound can go far hinges on this core contradiction.
ETFs are currently the most direct channel for institutional entry. Continuous net outflows indicate that mainstream institutions have not increased their positions in this rebound; instead, they are reducing positions to realize profits during the rebound window. This means that this rally is more driven by leverage repair and short covering on the contract side, rather than solid new institutional buying support. It is a stock game market with a relatively weak foundation.
The current market sentiment is conflicted—fearful of missing out but hesitant to take heavy positions. Short-term bulls push prices based on sentiment, but as soon as there is slight resistance above, selling pressure easily emerges. Relying solely on retail investors and leveraged funds, it is difficult to sustain a large, continuous rebound.
To see the market go further, two signals must be closely watched: first, ETF funds turning from outflows to stable net inflows; second, easing macro pressure from U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar. Before these two signals appear, the rebound is better regarded as a correction within a range rather than a trend reversal to chase higher.
Key observation points: daily ETF fund flows, performance under key resistance levels above, Federal Reserve officials' speeches, and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The South Korean stock market learned a lesson today: KOSPI fell more than 4% intraday to 5512 points, SK Hynix dropped about 7%, Samsung fell about 6%.
What’s even more painful is the comparison. SK Hynix closed at 2.919 million KRW on June 22, today it’s 1.214 million, down 58% in just over four months; but compared to early December last year at 538,000 KRW, it’s still up 126%. The same stock, two calculations, two stories.
KOSPI dropped from the June high of 9114 to 5512, a -40% decline. Some say it’s a programmatic sell-off after storage price peaks, not a fundamental deterioration. But there are only two variables: whether storage prices will turn around and whether the Korean won will remain stable.
$EWYB $BTCThose who bought at the top are no longer selling. The proportion of people who bought BTC 6-12 months ago and sold it on exchanges has dropped from 40.4% to 4.4% (CryptoQuant October data), a 90% decrease in 5 months. But the price is still stuck around 81,500: it surged to 83,000 within 24 hours but was pushed back by sell walls, with a total liquidation of $335 million across the network. CryptoQuant puts it bluntly: this group stopping selling is just like releasing the brake; for the price to rise, new buyers are needed, and new buyers haven't entered yet. This week, Meta and Tesla earnings reports are concentrated, and next week is the FOMC meeting, so money is on hold. My stance: cautiously bullish and watching; the clearing of sell pressure above 80,000 is a bottoming signal, but I won't chase without incremental funds. Will you wait for a breakout above 83,000 to get in, or buy on a pullback to 80,000?
$BTC #BTC行情 #欧意星球 #加密市场$BTC has fallen back below $82,000 again, and the quality of the market rebound is being tested.
From previously breaking below $80,000, to rebounding and hitting $83,000, and now falling back to around $81,700, Bitcoin has yet to break out of a true trend reversal.
A typical "positive rebound, profit-taking" scenario: the short-term Fed rate hike expectations have cooled, which indeed gives risk assets a breather, but the market is clearly not ready to reprice a bull market.
What’s more noteworthy is that BTC encountered selling pressure near $83,000 during the previous rebound, indicating that trapped positions and short-term profit-taking funds are still waiting to exit.
Meanwhile, high U.S. Treasury yields, rising oil prices combined with geopolitical risks, make global capital increasingly cautious about high-volatility assets.
Currently, $82,000 has become a short-term battleground between bulls and bears; if it cannot firmly hold above $83,000, the rebound space will likely remain limited.
The $81,000 level is a recent key support; if it breaks effectively, the $80,000 psychological level will be tested again.
However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. After continuous adjustments, some leveraged risks have been released, and the market is not without the possibility of regaining upward momentum. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ Tech stocks rebound, and Amazon single-handedly revived the mood.
On Monday, the Nasdaq rose +1.11%, with Amazon leading the charge: +4.98% closing at $262.45, adding about $134.3 billion in market value in one day.
The trigger was Morgan Stanley: top pick, target price raised from $335 to $350, expecting AWS to grow 47% year-over-year by 2027.
On the same day, they also launched a big move: the open-source tool TorchNeuron. With just one configuration change in PyTorch code, it can run on their self-developed Trainium chip, already with over 30 early customers.
In the short term, this is a valuation re-rating story; in the long term, it’s the first shot from a cloud provider challenging Nvidia’s software ecosystem. But on the other hand: last week, hedge funds’ net selling proportion of tech stocks hit a record high, and the debts and burn rates of AI are not yet accounted for.
I think this is a dual catalyst of "expectation + sentiment repair." Whether it becomes a trend depends on whether AWS can deliver real cash and results — the invalidation point: if AWS’s growth next quarter falls short of expectations, or Trainium remains only a pilot without scaling, the story falls apart.
Is this the start of Amazon’s valuation re-rating, or just the leader of an oversold rebound?
$AMZN $NVDA
#TechStocksRebound #AIChip$BNB: The shock absorber in the portfolio. The underlying logic is the gas consumption and buyback expectations of X Layer, while CZ continues to promote the BNB phone as the ecosystem entry point. Around 720 feels more like ecosystem depth pricing, not driven by sentiment surges, with limited pullbacks and difficult explosive upward moves, suitable for holding.
$HYPE: A cash flow-driven deflationary machine. Yesterday, another 11,300 tokens were burned, totaling 49.63 million tokens, accounting for 4.96% of total supply, worth about $3.9 billion at current prices; 30-day protocol revenue of $69.94 million all goes into the burn pool. Around $78, it is the only one among the three that simultaneously achieves sustained deflation and revenue validation, solid.
$OKB: Currently lacks its own story. Funding rate is -0.0014%, bears have the upper hand, open interest only 30.7 million, in the 30th percentile over three weeks, showing cold willingness to open positions. Correlation with BTC is 0.85, price basically follows the overall market. Waiting for ecosystem transformation catalyst, otherwise just oscillating alongside the market.Gold to surge to 4300 in a week? I bet No, with a total of 500 XP.
The account shows a profit, but my logic hasn't changed, and I have three reasons👇
1️⃣ Not enough room. The current price is still over three points away from 4,300. Gold only makes such a one-sided move in a week during major events, like sudden geopolitical conflicts or unexpected hawkish/dovish moves from central banks. There’s nothing that big on this week’s calendar.
2️⃣ High levels cause hesitation. Gold prices have been fluctuating at high levels for several weeks, and every surge faces profit-taking. Around 4,200 is the first barrier, 4,300 is a psychological round number; breaking both in one week is unlikely.
3️⃣ The odds make sense. Selling No at 92¢ means the market only gives about a 10% chance of "touching" it, and I think the real probability is even lower. This position is meant to be low-volatility and steady profit, not a bet for doubling.
The current -3.9% is just market sentiment wobbling, not the final result. As long as the weekly high doesn’t hit 4,300, each contract will settle at 1 XP at expiration, so these 500 XP will return about 540, making roughly an 8% gain.
I’ve also thought through the biggest risk: if a major risk-off event happens midweek and gold spikes, this position will hurt. So I only used part of my XP, not fully invested.
Do you think gold will reach 4300 this week? ETF bought 520 million, but BTC can't even hold 82K, whose face is this data slapping?
Today I saw an extremely conflicting set of data.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net inflow of 526.64 million USD, the largest in three weeks. BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed 665.2 million, carrying the entire ETF group's inflow. Last week it was still a net outflow of 549 million; overnight, institutions seem like they've changed.
But what about BTC? It surged to 83,000, then was pushed back to 81,800. The Coinbase premium index dropped to -0.141, a new low since the end of June; US buying pressure simply can't hold. Liquidation data also flipped: longs liquidated 104 million, shorts 84.12 million, bulls are being liquidated again.
Institutions are buying, price isn't rising, and the liquidations are still on the long side. This indicates that the ETF inflows are being absorbed by even larger sell orders, possibly miners, whales, or longs trapped last week cutting losses.
My long position is still holding. This ETF inflow data is the only reason I can still convince myself to "wait a bit longer" today.
But if BTC can't hold above 82,300 tomorrow, that reason will be gone.
ETF bought 500 million, price doesn't move an inch, who do you think is selling?
Is part of it you?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Observing $ZEC over the past month, its market pattern is very clear. The most typical point: it often experiences a surge during the Asian early trading session from 6 to 9 AM Beijing time.
Why choose this time? From a liquidity perspective, at this time European and American funds are resting, the order book depth is thin, and it doesn't take much capital to move the price, which is a typical case of "using a small force to move a big weight." Previously, the price rose from 900 to 1699 mainly due to a short squeeze, relying on blowing out a large number of short positions, with short sellers covering by buying, which fueled the rally.
The current situation is: the cheap short positions available for harvesting in the market have decreased, so the "fuel" for the rally is insufficient. To maintain the price from falling sharply, the main funds choose to control and push up the price during the Asian early session when liquidity is at its thinnest.
Check for yourself if the situation matches what I described? Short a position during the day, set an alarm to go long every morning, and you can pay attention to the follow-up.Citibank Research on October 19 repositioned Aave as a decentralized collateral liquidity protocol, not just crypto lending. Golden Finance and Cointelegraph reported similar perspectives.
On-chain matching shows that tokenized fund collateral on Horizon, such as JAAA, has risen from about $18 million to around $51.9 million. Tokenized US stock collateral lending on Base remains small, with roughly $9 million collateral and over $3 million USDC loans. CoinGecko spot AAVE is about $148, down roughly 3% in 24 hours (snapshot around 16:05 Beijing time).
This feels more like an institutional narrative trying to get ahead; the real scale is still small. The research report provides direction, not that the current scale has exploded. The opposing side is also clear: activity relies on incentives, US users can't enter, and once regulation tightens, the story can be pushed back.
In the next two weeks, focus on only two things. Whether net collateral on Horizon and the tokenized stock market continues to expand; if the combined shrinkage exceeds 20% in two weeks, treat Citibank's narrative as empty hype. If AAVE underperforms ETH by more than 8% consistently, consider the market not buying into this story.
$AAVE $ETH $BTC
#Aave #Tokenization $ETH $BTC $SOL Why are some people still choosing to short in this situation?
Let's talk about the reasons for shorting:
1: First, the uncertainty of the midterm elections. The midterm elections are on November 3rd, just half a month away. If the Republicans don't do well, market funds will rush to safe havens. Historically, every midterm election has triggered a stock market sell-off: a 35% drop in 1974, 34% in 2002, and 27% in 2022, which was the smallest decline in recent years. This year will most likely be no exception.
2: September CPI year-on-year at 3.7% exceeded expectations, boosting bets on rate hikes. Expectations for a rate hike in December have strengthened, favoring a return of funds to dollar assets and deposits in banks to earn interest.
3: Continuous outflows from ETF spot funds. Last night, BlackRock institutions transferred 883 BTC and 28,957 ETH to the exchange (there was no dump last night; a dump is expected tonight).
These are all bearish points, but the probability of a waterfall drop is low. After all, the market is all about speculation on expectations. When bearish news lands, it often turns bullish. If you don't bottom-fish Ethereum at 2300, when will you? If you don't buy Bitcoin at 79,000, will you wait until 100,000???
Personally, I am still bullish. When everyone is panicking, I must be greedy!!!
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ The Hormuz reopening plan is still valid; can oil prices continue to fall? This geopolitical variable directly affects the sentiment of crude oil-related assets, and the current rebound seems more like a technical correction during a news vacuum. I remain cautious about a sustained decline. On the 4-hour chart, there is a steady upward trend closely following previous highs, with retracement narrowing step by step, and short-term strength remains unbroken. The negative funding rate combined with an open interest of 592,000 indicates a high degree of short crowding, suggesting a potential short squeeze; however, the buy-to-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is 0.77, with selling pressure still dominant, and solid sell orders suppressing around 99.77. Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 98.63, with a stop loss at 97.85 and a target of 99.62; if volume increases and price stabilizes above 99.62, positions can be added to chase up to 100.35. Position size should be controlled within 20%, and exit immediately if stop loss is hit—do not hold losing positions.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$CL#霍尔木兹重开方案仍有效，油价能否继续回落？
#霍尔木兹重开方案仍有效，油价能否继续回落？
$CL $CL
Folks, have you recently felt uneasy seeing your account in the red? No matter how you buy lately, you end up losing?
Want to know why? Follow Ali's lead and let's break down the logic behind this~
Actually, the current market is being stirred up by oil prices, interest rates, and AI stocks working together!!!
First, the Middle East situation is unstable, tanker freight rates are rising, and as oil prices go up, global inflation won't come down. If inflation doesn't ease, would the Fed dare to cut rates? In that case, US Treasury yields will surge, capital costs will rise, and people will be even less willing to put money into the stock market. As for AI stocks, under a high interest rate environment, they face the dual pressure of rising financing costs and earnings falling short of expectations. The market's valuation logic shifts from growth narratives to cash flow validation, making high valuations unsustainable.
Ali's current view is that this is like dominoes, one thing triggering another. Don't rush to bottom-fish yet; we need to keep an eye on oil prices and US Treasury yields. Without these two falling back, the market will struggle to truly stabilize.
$SKHY $MU #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 OKX 预言家财报季又上新了，这次的大逃杀玩法比单纯卷 XP 榜单刺激得多：最终胜者赢得 10,000 USDT。 规则极其残酷也极简单：答对晋级，答错或漏答直接抬走淘汰。今晚报名就截止了，抓紧时间。 这轮我把四个标的的判断拆一下，仅供参考，不是喊单。 Tesla ➔ No 交付 48.65 万辆确实超预期，但同比还是降了约 2%。Q2 剔除积分后的汽车毛利率只有 16.3%，Q3 市场预期也就回升到 17% 左右。自由现金流预期负 45 亿美元上下，资本开支压在 Robotaxi 和 AI 上。交付好看不等于利润好看，这个位置我更愿意站 No。 Netflix ➔ Yes 广告 tier 和打击密码共享的红利还在释放，广告收入今年目标约 30 亿美元，ARPU 有提价和广告双重支撑。但内容主管 Bela Bajaria 在财报前离职、公司裁员约 1000 人（约 6%），短期不是没变数。我倾向 Yes，但把握中等偏上，不是无风险。 SpaceX ➔ Yes Starlink Q2 营收 42.9 亿美元、运营利润率 38.6%，单业务确实强。但 SpaceX 集团整体上半年自由现金流#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
I choose Yes for SpaceX, but with the smallest position. Starlink reached 12 million users last quarter, and connection service revenue rose by 66%; I'm willing to bet on this growth. The problem is the whole group is still losing $541 million, and both AI and aerospace businesses are spending money. The synergy between Roadster and SpaceX looks lively, but the earnings report ultimately depends on whether Starlink's profits can cover investments elsewhere. If this bet is wrong, I wouldn't be too surprised. This month, $BTC ETFs have seen a net outflow exceeding $600 million, and $ETH ETFs have lost over $300 million in a single week — this is not just ordinary position adjustment, but a systematic reduction by institutions after inflation data exceeded expectations and rate cut expectations were forced to be postponed. What truly deserves attention is never how the candlesticks jump daily, but the direction in which the funds are moving. 😂 Many people mistake this rebound for a turning point, but structurally it looks more like a technical repair after a deep drop. The ETF channel is still experiencing net outflows; the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is far from decided, and signals of large-scale incremental capital returning have yet to appear. In other words, prices are moving, but the money hasn't come back. Breaking down the divergence between the two main assets is clearer: $BTC has rebounded from around $80,000 but overall remains in a recovery range after a decline, so it cannot be called a trend reversal; $ETH is obviously weaker, with a deeper pullback and a weaker rebound. The persistence and intensity of ETF net outflows exceed those of Bitcoin, and institutions are more resolute in reducing holdings. The same track, two different situations — this itself is an undervalued piece of information. My judgment is: the market generally misreads the rebound as a prelude to capital inflow, but the only real confirmation signal is continuous net inflows into ETFs over multiple days, with prices effectively breaking through key resistance levels. Before that, any rebound is just a repair, not a reversal. This also means that if funds are really to return, $ETH will require a longer repair period and verification time than $BTC, with both elasticity and risk coexisting. Instead of watching the market every day waiting for a big bullish candle, it's better to watch the flow of funds, which is a more honest indicator