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Last Friday's non-farm payroll data dashed rate hike expectations, but the weekend's oil prices pulled them back.
Let's look at the results first. On the night of October 2, when the non-farm payroll data was released, BTC was at 86602.8. Today at 12:00, it is 86038.7. Three days have passed, and not only has it not risen, it has fallen by 0.65%.
Gold is even more direct. On the day of the non-farm payroll release, it surged to $4226.51, and everyone thought this was just the beginning. However, it closed that day at 4139.24, down 0.9%, and fell 3.4% over the past week. Safe-haven assets are declining.
Where is the problem? Look at the bonds.
After the non-farm data came out, the 10-year US Treasury yield first fell then rose, ultimately increasing by 3.2 basis points to close at 5.283%. This marks its fifth consecutive week of gains. The 2-year yield also rose by 3.1 basis points to 4.835%. Despite poor employment data, yields did not fall but instead moved higher—the bond market simply did not buy into the idea that "rate hikes are ending."
The reason the bond market is unconvinced was delivered over the weekend.
On October 4, the Houthi forces claimed to have attacked Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais with ballistic missiles and drones. Brent crude oil rose 0.79% in early Monday trading, returning to $103.06 per barrel. This price is about 40% higher than before the conflict began at the end of February this year.
OPEC+ decided at their Sunday meeting to keep November production unchanged, which seems bearish for oil prices. However, Gulf oil exporters are only operating at 60-80% of normal levels, and the seven countries' production in August was still about 5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. The G7 announced last Friday they would release 100 million barrels from reserves, but oil prices were not suppressed.
What is the relationship between oil prices and crypto prices? We need to look back to September 16.
That day, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, lifting the range to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. The reason was clearly stated: persistent inflationary pressures and global energy prices continuing to rise due to geopolitical conflicts.
In other words, oil prices themselves are part of the reason for rate hikes. Now that Brent is back at 103, it effectively returns this reason to the Fed. Weak employment data removes one hawkish reason; but rising oil prices leave another.
The current combination is this: employment is weakening, inflation has not fallen, and real interest rates remain above 5%. This combination has a name: stagflation.
The most difficult environment in stagflation is precisely for assets like Bitcoin and gold. Their rise requires one premise—the decline of real interest rates. If yields do not fall, gold has no holding value, and Bitcoin cannot gain new liquidity. No matter how bad the non-farm data is, as long as yields do not come down, this positive factor cannot materialize.
This also explains a counterintuitive phenomenon: last Friday's data, by the old framework, was a standard positive. Weak employment, cooling rate hike expectations, risk assets should rise. But BTC surged for a minute then fell back, gold turned negative that day, and yields kept climbing. The old framework has failed. The market now first asks whether inflation will return, then whether rates will be cut.
Going forward, focus on these two lines: whether the 10-year yield can fall from 5.283%, and whether Brent can drop back below 100 from 103. If these two numbers do not move, even worse non-farm data next time will be useless.
There is one more thing this week: the Fed and the ECB will release the minutes of their September meetings. The wording about energy prices in those minutes is more worth watching than the market's bets on whether there will be a rate hike in October.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变Liquidity over the weekend was so poor, yet $BTC managed to rise 2000 points, which is quite surprising, considering the volume contraction makes the rise less solid.
Short-term bearish, mid-term bullish, long-term bullish:
The options expiring this Thursday have a maximum pain point at 84000, which is 2500 dollars above the current price. The gravitational battle before expiration will most likely cause the price to pull back first;
However, the mid-term direction remains unchanged, with the monthly options expiring on the 30th having a notional size of 10 billion dollars, and the 95K call positions being the largest.
There is a new development you might have noticed: $BTC miners are back. Bitcoin's total network hash rate has climbed back from a low of 850 EH/s to 1010 EH/s, miners are back to work, reducing a hidden selling pressure risk. This is a positive for the long term.
Citibank raised the BTC target price to 113,000, which is also one of the long-term bullish points.Solana tokenized stocks' trading volume in September exceeded $4.4 billion, and the ecological heat rebound often first reflects on attention assets like KAITO. There is short-term expectation for a price increase but it is not advisable to chase the highs. Currently, 0.3482 is consolidating in a narrow range between 0.3407 and 0.3556. The 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are weakening synchronously, falling more than 5% from the high. The trading volume is 15.129 million, relatively light. The funding rate of 0.0050% indicates mild bullish sentiment. Open interest is 11.807 million with no obvious increase. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.08, slightly favoring buyers, indicating a low-volume structure awaiting a breakout. A trend reversal can be confirmed only if it breaks above the previous high of 0.3567; if it falls below 0.3391, the downside space opens. You may lightly try going long at 0.3433 with a stop loss at 0.3361 and a target of 0.3623; if it breaks below 0.3389, reverse to a short position with a stop loss at 0.3477 and a target of 0.3266. Keep position size within 20%, and avoid heavy positions before the breakout is confirmed.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$KAITO#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 $KAITO $BTC might be entering the most boring phase of this cycle.
In 2023, Bitcoin consolidated in a re-accumulation range for seven months before finally surging and hitting a new ATH. If this pattern repeats, we still have one last correction phase—likely a liquidity sweep below the current lows—before the real expansion begins.
The cycle is compressing. The market moves faster and the ranges tighten. The next upward wave could push $BTC near $95,000, where I expect another re-accumulation range to form—roughly between $87k and $97k.
This time it won’t last seven months, probably only three to five months.
If the correction and expansion continue until November or December, $BTC might trade sideways within that new range for most of Q1 2027. Boring price action, tight ranges, and traders are more likely to lose patience.
I remain very bullish on the big picture. But the next few months could be much more boring than the market expects. The "accumulation phase" in real time isn’t pleasant—that’s its point.
If you’re positioning for the 2027–2030 cycle, this is where you build your base, not chase noise. $ETH $SOL J value 99.5, this number is not a price.
$BTC is currently around 86670, the 4-hour chart is hugging the upper band.
How this number is calculated: it doesn't measure how much it has risen, but rather that the recent closing prices have all been clustered at a high level.
The longer they cluster, the higher this number gets. 99.5 means almost every candlestick closes at the upper edge.
Common misreading: a high reading does not mean an immediate drop.
It only indicates that short-term buyers are positioned very high; once it falls back, this group will feel the pain first.
87238 is the previous high, 84.3K is the support level below.
Those chasing highs are betting on a breakout with volume. Without volume, they are just standing at the very top.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC BTC has already surpassed $86,000, with a 24-hour increase of 1.66%. The fear and greed index has also risen from 65 yesterday to 70, officially entering the "greed" zone. On the surface, market sentiment looks very positive. But after checking the on-chain data, things aren't that simple.
The $90,000 level above is a "powder keg" for short liquidations. Data released by Glassnode this morning shows that the largest cluster of Bitcoin liquidations above is around $90,000. Once the price hits this level, a large number of leveraged shorts will be forcibly liquidated, potentially triggering a short-term sharp rise. Meanwhile, the $85,000 sell wall has already been absorbed by buy orders, and seller liquidity is drying up. This means the resistance to the upside is indeed decreasing.
Institutions are buying, but macro pressures remain. In the past two weeks, Bitcoin spot ETF inflows have approached $4 billion, and IBIT's single-day buying power once reached about $196 million, indicating institutional allocation demand has not cooled. On the other hand, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains stubbornly stuck at a high level of 5.28%–5.3%, and the pressure on risk assets has not been lifted.
Personal judgment: short-term bullish, but don't get carried away. The $85,000 level has been tested multiple times. Now that it has been absorbed by buy orders, the next technical target is to test the $90,000 liquidation cluster. Personally, I won't chase highs at $86,000; I'll wait for a pullback near $84,000 to confirm support before acting. — When greed is high, it's always wise to keep some clarity. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Solana tokenized stocks' trading volume in September exceeded $4.4 billion, reflecting that the expansion of on-chain assets is accelerating the diversion of mainstream funds. ETH, as the core for settlement and collateral, is hard to bypass. I tend to see short-term fluctuations with a sideways bias and a medium-term bullish bias. In the past 24 hours, ETH rose slightly by 0.8%. The bulls recovered after support at 2689.76, but the top 10 order book bids are only 1029 versus 2667 asks, a ratio of 0.39, showing obvious selling pressure; the funding rate of 0.01% appears neutral, with 620,000 positions held and no signs of panic selling. A 1-hour downtrend and 4-hour uptrend form a tug of war, with 2739.43 as near-term resistance. Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 2693.7 with a stop loss at 2681.5 and a target of 2741.8; if volume breaks through and holds above 2739.43, chase longs with a stop loss at 2726.4 and a target of 2788.6. Position size should be controlled within 20%, and exit decisively if stop loss is breached.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$ETH#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 $ETH The Federal Reserve will release the September meeting minutes this week. Increased macro uncertainty often amplifies volatility in the crypto market. SLX is under short-term pressure. My judgment is to focus on defense before the minutes are released and avoid heavy bets on direction. The current quote is 0.06153, down slightly 0.7% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 2.441 million. The funding rate of 0.0050% indicates that longs are still paying, and the open interest of 30.405 million coins shows accumulated speculative positions; both hourly and four-hour levels are weakening, having fallen 18.01% from the four-hour high. The order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.65, with buyers temporarily dominant. 0.06086 is the current key defense line; if broken, 0.05875 will be tested. Risk control priority: if it stabilizes after dipping to 0.06021, a light long position can be tried with a stop loss at 0.05912 and a target of 0.06348; if a rebound is blocked at 0.06305, then short-term shorting is advised with a stop loss at 0.06418 and a target of 0.06037. Single position size should not exceed 3% of total funds. It is recommended to halve positions before the minutes release, and stop losses must be executed unconditionally once triggered.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SLX#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $SLX #OKXICE has applied to the SEC to launch a tokenized stock trading platform, marking another step in bringing traditional financial assets on-chain. This is generally positive news for BTC, but the short-term impact is limited. The 4-hour and 1-hour moving averages are still trending upward, with the price at 86054.4, just 0.83% below the 24h high of 86963.7. The order book's top ten levels show a buy-sell ratio of 0.64, with sell orders at 800 outweighing buy orders at 509. The funding rate is 0.0046%, leaning neutral, and open interest stands at 29,000 contracts, indicating sentiment is not overly bullish. Intraday volume is 4.483 million, with a 1.5% increase. The upward structure remains intact, but there is noticeable selling pressure above. A light long position can be tried near the 84771.3 pullback, with a stop loss at 84465 and a target of 86780; if the price rebounds to 86850 but fails to break resistance, reduce positions, keeping exposure under 20%, and exit strictly if the price breaks down.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BTC #Solana tokenized stock September trading volume exceeds $4.4 billion
#OKXICE has applied to the SEC to launch a tokenized stock trading platform $BTC 86,000 here I see a correction, either a shakeout then directly down, or a surge to 90,000 to trigger short positions before adjusting. Both will correct.
But I won't short. Reducing by 30% won't lose, shorting and getting liquidated means losing everything. Keep 70% untouched, cherish the 60,000 chips. (Don't like swing trading, just hold the 60,000 chips steady)
$BTC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 The US 2025 tax filing extension deadline is October 15, with crypto reporting entering the countdown. WLD, as a popular coin, is often mentioned in tax tracking, and short-term sentiment is cautious. Looking at the market, the price at 0.5696 is down 3.1% in 24h, with a trading volume of 189 million, and a funding rate of 0.007% indicating a slight bullish premium; however, the top 10 order book buy/sell ratio is 0.77, showing seller pressure, and although the 1-hour trend is upward, it is 6.5% below the high, while the 4-hour is 40.33% above the low, indicating a clear divergence between long and short cycles. Key support is at 0.5663, resistance at 0.5927. It is recommended to lightly short on a rebound to 0.5913, with a stop loss at 0.5978 and a target of 0.5671; if it pulls back to 0.5667 and stabilizes, consider going long, with a stop loss at 0.5619 and a target of 0.5893. Position size should not exceed 20%, with strict risk control.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$WLD#美2025年度延期报税10月15日截止，涉及加密申报
#美2025年度延期报税10月15日截止，涉及加密申报 $WLD Bitcoin broke through the triangle pattern, and the W bottom inside the triangle also formed. The neckline of the W bottom inside the triangle is the upper boundary of the triangle. A breakout of the W bottom within the triangle inevitably leads to a rally. Currently, it has also broken through the resistances at 85277 and 86335. Next, we will see if Bitcoin can break through the previous high near 87400; only by breaking the previous high can the uptrend continue. If it fails to break the previous high, a multiple top pattern will form as indicated by the red arrow above, and you know what a multiple top means! Since you missed this wave of rally, don't worry, because the current price is very close to the previous high, and no one knows if it can break through to continue the rebound. Therefore, the best way to go long is to wait for a pullback and see if Bitcoin can pull back to 85277-84373 to show a bottom signal before going long; otherwise, chasing longs is risky. Because before breaking 85277, this volume-reduced rise did not produce trend candles, and rallies without trend candles are not strong enough to follow. What is a trend candle? A big bullish candle with no upper or lower shadows is a trend candle. Besides, the rally at 4-5 AM is normal when most people are asleep, so if you miss it, don't rush; just patiently wait for a pullback. Lightly go long on Bitcoin when it retests 85277. If 86335 breaks down with volume and the rebound fails to recover, do not chase shorts on the right side; set a good stop loss. On the hourly chart, a breakout and hold above 86786 points upward to 87374-88517; if it can't surpass 86786, it's useless. On the 4-hour chart, breaking below 86335 points downward to 85277-84373. Up Just reviewed my trading journal and found a particularly interesting pattern.
On January 3rd, BTC was at 42,000, and I wrote, "Wait for a pullback to 38,000 before buying." Later, it never came and rose to 48,000.
On March 15th, BTC was at 68,000, and I wrote, "This rally is too much, wait for a drop to 60,000 before entering." Later, it never came and rose to 72,000.
On July 20th, BTC was at 66,000, and I wrote, "This time I will definitely wait for a pullback." Later, it never came and rose to 87,000.
Three journal entries, three "waits," three missed opportunities.
I sent this to a friend, and he said, "You're not trading, you're wishing."
Thinking about it, that's really true. I've been waiting for a perfect entry point, waiting for a "confirmation" signal, waiting for a moment everyone agrees on. But the market never gives perfect opportunities; it only rewards the brave.
Now BTC is at 85,000, and I wrote another sentence in my journal: "If it drops to 80,000 again, I will definitely buy."
I laughed at myself after writing it.
Brothers, have you ever written such "waiting for a pullback" journal entries? Did you ever get the pullback? Let's chat in the comments.👇
$BTC
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Opinion The project team has issued another announcement.
Previously, because investors publicly complained, the project team directly canceled some token unlocks. In this announcement, the first point states that three individuals spread false statements for personal gain, harming the interests of other supporters.
What’s truly worth paying attention to is this kind of "victim narrative."
The original question was: Does the project team have the right to cancel the token unlocks they had promised?
But the project team repackaged the issue as: Are the investors harming the community’s interests?
In this way, the project team shifts from being the questioned party to becoming the "decision-maker for everyone."
This is actually a very typical case of problem substitution: turning a dispute over their own rules into a moral issue about the other party.
Looking at this together with the earlier "Token rules can be modified," reveals a more realistic risk:
When legal constraints, governance mechanisms, and contract protections are not strong enough, whoever controls the narrative is more likely to define what is reasonable.
So what tokens truly warrant caution about is not just price volatility, but how solid the rights behind them really are.
If unlock promises can be unilaterally changed, then the tokens in your hands may be far less like traditional "ownership" than you imagine.BTC dominance returns, why is ETH being ignored by funds?
BTC surged rapidly in the early morning, briefly warming up the market, but then retreated, indicating that the chasing momentum remains fragile. A notable change is that the barometer is no longer ETH, but BTC alone holding the stage.
ETH fund outflows continue to expand; besides contract trading, spot holders are clearly withdrawing. Market discussions about ETH are shifting from "ecosystem narrative" to "cost-effectiveness and returns"—after several years, this was true in the last bull market and seems unchanged this time.
Meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs are flowing back in, forming a sharp contrast. The choice of funds is honest: amid uncertainty, BTC remains the preferred safe haven, while ETH's narrative premium is being consumed.
Tonight's U.S. stock market opening is a key variable. If external sentiment is unstable, the market may enter another phase of volatility. At this stage, watching BTC flows is more meaningful than watching ETH—whoever holds dominance is where the funds go. $BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $ETH rebound faces resistance, bears open positions!
Technical analysis: Ethereum repeatedly attempted to break through 2740–2758 but failed; 2754 forms short-term resistance, and 2784 is the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level. Previously, it touched 2749 then reversed, failing to hold above 2740, indicating real selling pressure above. MACD histogram shrinks toward the zero line, fast and slow lines converge, buying momentum weakens; RSI around 64, not overbought but relatively high, likely to drop toward 50–55 after a pullback. The daily pivot at 2702 is critical; breaking below it may smooth the downward trend.
News: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, superficially warm, but ETH surged to 2749 then fell back, showing "buy the rumor, sell the fact" again. ETH spot ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $117.8 million, institutional incremental buying weakens, short-term sentiment unfavorable for bulls.
Trading strategy: Light short positions near 2748, stop loss above 2805; if volume breaks above 2805, bearish logic fails, exit unconditionally. First target 2668–2670, break below targets 2636, then 2576. Position size 10%–15%, leverage no more than 3x. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #非农 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
Market review only, not investment advice.#The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, OPEC+ keeps November production unchanged Oil prices surge, gold sideways, BTC lifts: This round is not a simple safe haven
Today's market is quite interesting. Oil surged the most aggressively, gold stayed sideways at a high level, and BTC followed with a lift. Don't rush to shout "safe haven is here"; behind this are three forces pulling.
Strait of Hormuz: Iran says it won't reopen until seven conditions are met; negotiations are still in a tug of war.
OPEC+: November production quotas remain unchanged, Gulf actual exports still low.
G7 release: Up to 100 million barrels over 4 months, prioritizing diesel release in the first 20 days.
Asset positions: Brent around $103, gold around $4156, BTC around $86,600.
My view: The release can suppress sentiment but can't make up for the Strait passage gap. As long as the Strait hasn't returned to normal, oil and gold premiums will be hard to disappear quickly, and BTC will continue to experience amplified volatility from "risk premium + liquidity."
Keep position flexibility, don't treat BTC as a pure safe haven; it now acts more like an amplifier of macro premiums. $BTC The significance of a neutral settlement layer for institutions is not brand endorsement.
Institutions choosing Ethereum should not be understood as voting for a particular community. A more practical reason is that they need a settlement system where all participants can verify, and the rules are not arbitrarily changed by a single partner. Asset issuers, custodians, trading platforms, and auditors can use the same source of state while maintaining their own compliance and business boundaries.
Neutrality does not mean lack of regulation, nor does it guarantee that every application is open. Stablecoin issuers can still freeze assets, custodians will still perform customer checks, and front ends may restrict regions. The $ETH network provides joint execution and final settlement but does not make all policy decisions for applications. Distinguishing the underlying neutrality from upper-layer permissions is essential to accurately understand the value institutions derive from adoption.
In the long term, what truly matters is whether institutions continuously place key assets and processes under verifiable rules, not just a single press release. It is also important to observe whether they run nodes, support multiple entry points, and allow users to exit to self-custody. Brand participation can bring traffic, but only by reducing bilateral reconciliation and single-point credit dependencies will a deeper demand for Ethereum be formed.#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变
_______________________________
OPEC+ maintains November production unchanged, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, meaning the geopolitical risk premium on crude oil supply has not dissipated. The G7's release of reserves can only hedge in the short term and is unlikely to fundamentally reverse the tight balance.
For BTC, this constitutes a clear macroeconomic constraint. If oil prices remain high, inflation stickiness will strengthen, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to shift to easing. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields (currently above 5.3%) will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. If the geopolitical situation further deteriorates causing oil prices to surge, expectations for rate cuts will be delayed again, and BTC may face temporary correction pressure. Currently, BTC is still dominated by macro liquidity, with geopolitical news only causing short-term fluctuations. Before U.S. Treasury yields confirm a peak, the overall pattern remains a pressured consolidation.
_______________________________Hyperliquid Labs sold approximately 3.75 million $HYPE tokens distributed by the team in October (about $320–330 million, roughly 1.5% of the circulating supply) in a single OTC deal to an undisclosed institution, with the tokens arriving around October 7.
Co-founder iliensinc mentioned this arrangement on Discord. It is not listed on a public order book, so the short-term selling pressure is less than a "direct market dump," but the buyer has no public lock-up period, so the tokens could still flow into exchanges later.Green Hair playing his classic character again - "Reverse Beacon" for a reason. Let's break down why this real account looks safe but is actually a time bomb: *TRUMP 20x long | 2.06 -> 2.043 | -197U -16% | 11,889 coins* He's down only -0.8% on price but -16% on ROI because 20x. Maintenance margin 394% means he's not near liquidation YET, but TRUMP is a political meme coin. It moves 10% on a Trump tweet. 394% can become 100% in one 5% candle. This is not a safe zone, it's a slow bleed zone. *SUI BTC stands near $86,000, with the 1-hour moving averages showing a bullish alignment; ETH has also nearly returned above $2,700, but it’s not a full bull market yet. The key is not how much the two major coins have risen, but whether there is volume and altcoin capital to follow up. The macro environment is still challenging. The Strait of Hormuz has not fully recovered, OPEC+ decided to keep November production unchanged, and energy supply uncertainty remains. If oil prices and inflation continue to rise, expectations for Fed rate cuts will fluctuate, and dollar liquidity will suppress high-volatility assets. So $BTC’s strength is more supported by ETF funds, institutional allocation, and safe-haven narratives. Another direction worth watching is Solana tokenized stocks. On-chain trading volume exceeded $4.4 billion in September, indicating the market is trading not just $SOL but also stocks, ETFs, and RWAs moving on-chain. $SOL, $RAY, $JUP, $PYTH, $ORCA, and even $ONDO, $LINK, may all gain attention from this narrative. Plus, with OKXNOW teasing major content, attention is flowing back. Next, watch three things: whether $BTC can hold above 86,000, whether $ETH can break through 2,750 with volume, and whether altcoins can continue rotating. Which scenario do you favor? A: $BTC continues to lead B: $ETH catches up C: $SOL and RWA start D: Macro weakens, rally fades $BTC $ETH $SOL $RAY $JUP $PYTH $ORCA $ONDO A data point that is easy to overlook:
In Q3 2026, Tron TVL increased by $3.3 billion, a 13.2% quarter-on-quarter rise.
Interestingly, Tron has often been labeled over the years as an "old chain," "low-end," or "only suitable for transfers," and its market popularity is far less than those public chains that constantly promote new narratives.
Yet its TVL continues to grow.
The reason might be precisely unsexy: real demands like stablecoin transfers and cross-border payments have always existed.
These businesses don’t easily create hype, nor do they have many new stories, but people really use them every day.
This actually reminds us:
Market hype and real usage are two different things.
One chain can trend every day but have few real users; another chain might not be discussed much, but has a large volume of stablecoins circulating on it daily.
So in the end, what public chains compete on might not be who is cooler, but who is truly being used.
Narratives will change, hotspots will rotate, but the funds and payment paths that users are accustomed to are much harder to replace than a new story.I'm the biggest loser!!! ZEC dropped below 1330!!! My scalp is numb from the drop!!
$ZEC long positions are making my eyes hurt from all the red. I bought in at 1400, and now it's been slammed down to 1329, losing 15%!
With triple leverage, they're really about to uproot this little retail trader!
Let me show you some data to prove how unfair my loss is. The Grayscale fund from institutions ran off with over 93 million USD in a week, setting a record.
The futures market is even worse, with 240 million USD worth of longs liquidated in 24 hours, and over 70 million USD of longs caught liquidating just around 1330!
The funniest part is, those whales with tens of millions USD positions disappear just like that, but my small pocket money is stubbornly holding on.
Those big institutions ran faster than rabbits, while I’m still posing on the mountaintop waiting for the crash!
I glanced at the news saying there’s a network upgrade on November 5th, shortening block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds.
I’m puzzled—how does faster transfers relate to my losing money? My losing speed is already fast enough, okay!
Whatever, as long as I don’t cut losses, the pump-and-dump won’t get me! No egg in my instant noodles tonight, saving money to add to my position! 😭
$BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 $BTC
On the weekly chart, last week already tested the previous high once, and the final close was a bullish candle, so the possibility of a deep correction scenario like the red line has obviously decreased.
Currently, the weekly price is around 86500. As long as the 83000 observation level holds, looking towards above 90000 is relatively smooth. But if it really breaks above 90000, it would more likely be a wick, and it would be difficult for the weekly candle body to close steadily above 90000.
On the daily chart, the rise from 74090 corresponds to the last wave of the upward movement after the 57758 start. After this segment finishes, a relatively large correction is very likely to follow. Daily resistance is concentrated between 86000 and 90600, pressure remains, and multiple divergences have appeared. The bullish observation level has moved up to 82500; once it is effectively broken, the correction will officially begin, with the downside first looking at 79000, then 73000.
On the 4-hour chart, the 85000 breakout mentioned last Friday has already been realized. Above 86000, a test was completed, followed by a drop of about 3000 dollars, landing right around the 84000 support area. Last time it failed to break the previous high and fell directly; this time, the probability of testing the previous high at 87385 is quite high. The 4-hour support is between 84900 and 85600. 🔥 15 days of patience, and the OKB stack is quietly growing!
Holiday volatility was just too low, so I decided to step back and pause for a few days instead of forcing trades.
Now the total position has reached 168.5 OKB. It’s been 15 days since my last update, averaging around +0.33 OKB per day.
Nothing crazy, no rushing—just steady progress. Honestly, I’m pretty happy with the pace. 📈
Sometimes the best move is simply to wait, stay disciplined, and let the position build.
#DailyOrbit BTC made a sharp move today, and it was a beautiful strike!
After waiting for a week, today was definitely worth the wait.
$BTC is currently trading around 86700, up 2.3% in 24 hours, surging from 84700 straight to 86700. This 2000-point big bullish candle completely wiped out the 85000 resistance level that had been tested all week. It even touched 87000 at the peak before pausing. This move was well worth the wait.
This surge didn’t come out of nowhere.
On Friday, the US nonfarm payrolls report was a big surprise — only 29,000 new jobs were added in September, while the market expected 90,000, missing by a wide margin. Even worse, August’s data was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and July’s numbers were changed from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, higher than expected.
Once this data came out, the market’s expectation for a Fed rate hike in October plummeted from 70% to below 35%. Now, the market prices in over a 65% chance that rates will remain unchanged. The dollar weakened, the Nasdaq surged, gold rebounded, and risk assets broadly recovered. $BTC benefited from this macroeconomic tailwind.
But honestly, while this rise is "well-deserved," the road ahead won’t be so easy.
Short-term outlook for $BTC
The 85000 level is the recent breakout point; as long as it holds on a pullback, it acts as support. The 87000–87400 range above is a dense area of previous highs, and the price stopped there today due to solid selling pressure.
One detail worth noting: $BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $134 million in the first two days of October, and BlackRock’s IBIT single-day net buying nearly hit $200 million. Institutions are quietly accumulating, which is a much more reliable signal than retail FOMO. Also, the seasonal narrative of "Uptober" is gaining traction; $BTC closed September with a 6.33% bullish candle, and historically, October tends to be favorable for $BTC.
My judgment: As long as the 85000 breakout holds, the short-term bias is bullish. But the trapped positions above 87000 are not to be underestimated. Don’t chase the price here; wait for a pullback confirmation before entering for a safer move.
$ETH is a bit awkward now
$ETH is currently at 2728, up 1.4% in 24 hours, noticeably weaker than $BTC. It has just crossed 2700 but hasn’t moved far beyond it. The $ETH/$BTC ratio continues to weaken, with funds clearly concentrating on $BTC.
To put it bluntly, $ETH is just passively following this rally. Even more painful is the capital flow: $ETH spot ETFs have seen net outflows totaling about $118 million over three consecutive days, with $55.4 million outflow on October 1 alone. While BTC ETFs are attracting money, $ETH ETFs are bleeding funds. This gap won’t be closed overnight.
Short-term outlook for $ETH
The 2680–2700 range is the breakout and pullback zone; above that, 2750 is short-term resistance, and 2800 is the real test. $ETH has risen 10% in 30 days, which is decent mid-term performance, but short-term capital preference is clearly not on $ETH.
Final thoughts
This rally is essentially driven by macroeconomic expectation gaps, not by crypto’s own narrative strength. Weak nonfarm payrolls → easing rate hike expectations → weaker dollar → risk asset rebound. This logic chain is clear, but it also means that if inflation data rebounds and rate hike expectations heat up again, this rally could be reversed at any time. The Fed meets on October 28, and inflation data in the meantime must be closely watched.
Currently, $BTC is the main battlefield for capital, while $ETH can only follow for now. If you want to go long, prioritize $BTC; if you want to bottom-fish $ETH, wait until its capital flow turns positive first.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 Now the obsession of $ETH bulls has become somewhat extreme, still insisting on being bullish despite the Nasdaq's sharp plunge. They shout reversal at the sight of a small bullish candle and attribute a bearish candle to a shakeout, constantly finding reasons to comfort themselves. The market signals are very clear: under pressure, shrinking volume, false breakout, the weak pattern remains unchanged.
I continue to hold my short positions, waiting for this bull trap to end and the downtrend to begin. The market punishes blind optimism and chasing highs; friends entering at the top should be cautious of deep losses.
$SNDK $ZEC
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 This is the cleanest plan you've posted all week. No all-in DOGE, no 0.16% margin gambling - just levels. And your levels are right: *BTC: 86,000 is THE line* You rode it from 83,884 to 86,794, now 86,400. Making 86k your bull/bear flip is perfect because: - Above 86k = higher low structure intact, buyers defending. Buy pullback to 86k makes sense, target 86,800 then 87k. - Below 86k = that 2.9k rally fails, first support is exactly what you said 85,400-85,600 (yesterday's consolidation), then 8The number 86K is more worth watching than any single green candle. When BTC is stuck repeatedly testing between 86K and 87K, what do you think the market is really trading? Recently, I have a strong feeling when watching the market: everyone verbally says they are waiting for a breakout, but their actions are honest—they don’t dare to increase their positions. This is not cowardice; it’s muscle memory from being repeatedly fooled by false breakouts in the previous cycle. Let me first lay out a few key levels I’m watching. - BTC 86K to 87K, this is an emotional watershed, not a technical iron ceiling - ETH 2.8K, painfully weak, but it’s the switch for whether altcoins can catch a breath - HYPE above 90, this is the thermometer for whether speculative funds dare to play new narratives - ZEC 1.4K, an independent trend in the privacy sector, not fully synchronized with mainstream risk appetite - SOL above 120, whether it can hold this level determines if mid- and small-cap coins have room to spread Why are these levels important? Because they are not just prices themselves, but gauges of risk appetite. One detail I’ve observed is that this BTC rebound hasn’t been accompanied by ETH strengthening. In past cycles, ETH was often the leading indicator of altcoin seasons. If it doesn’t move, it means funds are still in a defensive allocation and haven’t truly spread into high-beta directions. This is closely related to sector strength—the strong sectors are concentrated in BTC and a few coins with independent narratives, like ZEC with its privacy concept, while most altcoins are still stuck in place. The bullish path looks like this:Rune #0 finally has a proper place for buying and selling.
UniHexa within the UniSat system has launched UNCOMMON•GOODS. The platform handles matching, and settlement is done on-chain after the deal.
This might seem minor, but it's quite practical for Rune #0. Previously, Runes were often listed sporadically, making buying and selling cumbersome. Now that it's on UniHexa, there's at least an order book and a centralized liquidity entry point.
I've always been optimistic about UniHexa. The Bitcoin ecosystem doesn't lack assets; it lacks places that can aggregate liquidity and allow retail investors to trade normally.
Rune #0 is already in; next, it depends on whether the order book is deep enough.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC Saylor explained his company's "three-layer Bitcoin product" again:
BTC provides direct ownership, MSTR offers leveraged BTC exposure, and STRC provides yield.
This logic is actually easy to understand:
If you want to purely hold BTC, buy BTC; if you want higher leverage exposure to BTC, buy MSTR; if you want to reduce price volatility and earn yield, then consider STRC.
Interestingly, the underlying logic of these three products all points to Bitcoin, but their risk structures are completely different.
This is actually a very familiar approach in traditional finance:
The same underlying asset, through different structural designs, is packaged into products with different risk levels.
So the future competition in the BTC market may not only be about "who buys more BTC," but also about who can package BTC into financial products that more people are willing to hold.
When an asset spawns more and more forms, its price will increasingly be influenced by the financial structure itself.ETH surged 93%, but MUBARAK is suffering huge losses! What should we do amid the macro storm? 🤡
Let's first review this morning's magical positions at noon. 🍵
First, a hot topic: #HormuzStillClosed, OPEC+ maintains November production unchanged
Geopolitics is still brewing, crude oil supply remains tight, no wonder commodities $CL and liquidity are so sensitive. Macro funds are all hedging, hiding in core assets.
——————
Look at my positions of fire and ice:
📈 Surprise (Fig.2): $ETH long position, average price 2488, followed the market rebound all the way up to 2721! Floating profit soared to +93.53%! (Earned 1.86U). While BTC was bleeding, ETH surprisingly held strong.
📉 Pain (Fig.1): $MUBARAK short position, 3x leverage, but the volatile market kept forcing a short squeeze, now floating loss is -20.61% (lost 5.87U).
The money earned from ETH just covered the MUBARAK loss, really a waste of effort.
——————
💡 Midday trading tone:
Before the macro situation clarifies, shorting altcoins is really high risk. MUBARAK’s short is a typical counter-trend hold.
By comparison, ETH’s trend-following long was the right choice today.
In the afternoon, firmly control your hands; if MUBARAK doesn’t rebound, keep playing dead, absolutely no blind averaging down.
💬 Brothers, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, do you think crude oil will keep rising?
In this unclear macro environment, are you heavily holding BTC and ETH, or still gambling in altcoins?
How should I handle my MUBARAK short this afternoon? Teach me in the comments, I’m listening! 👇
#HormuzStillClosed #OPEC+MaintainsNovemberProduction #ETH #MUBARAK #OKX #TradingInsights #RetailTraderDiary
(Disclaimer: The above is only a personal trading review record and does not constitute any investment advice. Contract trading is extremely risky, please pay close attention to risk control.) 📰 【The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October rises to 82.3%】
BlockBeats reports that on October 5, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 82.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 17.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by December is 17.3%, with a 68.7% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike and a 14% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point hike.
It is basically consensus that rates will remain steady for now, but the probability of a rate hike at the end of the year is still rising, pushing the liquidity turning point further back. Recently, stablecoin inflows have noticeably slowed, and meme coins tend to rally briefly then pause for three days; when the rhythm is off, patience is required. Don't rush to catch a falling knife before the macro situation settles. Have you seen any signs of funds positioning early recently? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $CL $BTC has climbed back above $85,000, but institutional buying momentum is cooling off, and the market currently lacks a stronger wave of incremental funds. 📉 BTC spot ETF inflows are slowing down, and buying momentum has weakened 🔻 ETH ETF funds are still biased toward outflows, putting short-term sentiment under pressure ⚠️ SOL fund flows have also declined somewhat, and risk appetite needs further confirmation The key focus ahead is the $87,000–$88,000 range. If BTC can break through this resistance zone accompanied by increased spot trading volume and renewed ETF fund inflows, the market will have a better chance to open up new upside potential. Conversely, if the breakout lacks volume and fund support, a pullback after the rally would not be surprising. 👀 Now is not the time to chase FOMO; focus on: ETF fund flows + trading volume + OI changes. Patience for confirmation is more important than betting on direction prematurely. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto #OKXBrothers, how much longer is $ETH Ethereum going to keep shaking like this?
It suddenly dropped below 2700 overnight, hitting a low of 2651. I thought it was finally going to crash further, but then it quickly bounced back to 2735. I'm totally confused.
My short position is still in profit, but half of the gains have been wiped out. I was just thinking about taking profits, now I'm worried about a reversal.
ETH has been playing games lately, repeatedly fluctuating around 2700: breaking below 2700, then pulling back; rising above, then dropping again. Bulls and bears are tugging back and forth here.
Now the 1-hour moving average is turning up again, short-term strength is picking up, but whether 2735 can hold remains to be seen.
This week we also have the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank September meeting minutes coming out. If they remain hawkish, ETH could fall back to 2680 or even 2650; if rate hike expectations cool down, ETH breaking through 2735, 2750, or even higher is possible.
So I’m not guessing now. Around 2700 will keep grinding, whoever enters here will suffer.
Wait for a real breakout or a drop below 2680 before deciding the direction.
Brothers, do you think ETH will break through this time, or fall back to 2650 again?
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 $SOL Current Situation:
BTC and ETH are both rising, but SOL is the only one stuck underwater, really heartbreaking.
🚩Hello, friends, I am Chao Ge🤝
👉I think there are three reasons:
1️⃣: First, SOL spot ETF inflows last week were only $2.4 million, shrinking 99% from $188 million the previous week, showing buying momentum has eased;
2️⃣: Second, a whale previously unstaked 956,600 SOL, worth about $116 million, putting selling pressure overhead;
3️⃣: Third, the 4-hour chart triggered a TD sell signal, and historically, similar signals for SOL led to corrections over 5%, making it the weakest.
👉Trading strategy: The daily MA20 around $114 still supports a bullish structure, but short-term funds and selling pressure are not cooperating. Resistance above is seen at $121 to $122; only a volume-backed break can challenge $124 to $125, which is unlikely. Support below is first at $118; if that fails, it will head straight to $114 to $115.
For contracts, a rebound encountering resistance at $121 to $122 can be lightly shorted, targeting $118 to $119, with a stop above $123.5. Wait for a drop and stabilization near $115 before considering going long. Hold the spot base position firmly; on a pullback to $114 to $115, add in batches, with a stop loss below $111. Watch closely whether ETF funds can flow back in; this is more useful than just looking at candlesticks.
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓
$BTC $ETH 🐱🐱 Price rebounds can attract attention, but whether there will be buyers afterward requires more concrete evidence.
$FIL should not be judged for its upside potential solely based on "growing storage demand." It provides decentralized storage services where customers can use tokens to purchase storage and retrieval services, and storage providers also receive token rewards. There is both usage demand and token supply here, so you can't just consider the buying side.
It's more worthwhile to raise expectations if the business can generate its own revenue rather than just expanding storage capacity.
$AVAX I will maintain recognition of its stage performance, but there is no need to rush it to rise in the short term. It has risen about 46% in the past month, but the latest 24 hours still saw a decline of about 1.6%.
At this level, it’s easiest to mistake "project progress" for "price should immediately respond."
However, the previous rise may have already reflected some expectations. We need to distinguish whether subsequent news brings new demand or just repeats the original logic.
I will look at whether actual usage and revenue improve further and will not treat every partnership as a new reason for price increases.
$BICO I think "sufficient circulation" can be studied, but it cannot be directly equated with low selling pressure.
CoinGecko lists the circulating supply, total supply, and max supply all as 1 billion tokens, so you can’t simply apply the logic of a large amount of uncirculated tokens waiting to be released.
However, tokens already in circulation can still be sold, and whether holders are willing to keep holding will also affect the price.
Therefore, my focus will shift to real usage demand and whether buying can be sustained. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has closed higher in 10 out of the past 13 Octobers, with a median gain of about +12.73%. However, seasonality has never guaranteed a rise — in October 2025, BTC recorded about -3.69%. What the market should focus on now are these 4 potential resistances: 1️⃣ Liquidity remains tight The total market cap of stablecoins is about $270 billion. Although it has rebounded since September, it is still about $14 billion less than in May. Liquidity is recovering but not enough to drive very strong incremental capital. 2️⃣ ETF fund enthusiasm has clearly cooled On September 21, there was a strong inflow close to $1 billion, but funds have since slowed significantly. If ETF demand cannot accelerate again, BTC will face greater pressure to continuously break previous highs. Recently, spot ETF trading activity has also been noticeably lower than the September peak. 3️⃣ Geopolitics remains one of the biggest variables 🌍 BTC previously approached $87K again, but the Middle East situation and oil price risks can easily trigger short-term risk aversion. As long as the energy market experiences severe volatility again, risk assets may be hit first. 4️⃣ Mt. Gox remains a potential supply pressure Mt. Gox-related wallets still hold about 34,387 BTC, valued at approximately $2.88 billion. The market continues to watch the repayment arrangements around October 31. What really needs caution is not the "holding of coins" itself, but whether there will be large-scale transfers or actual selling pressure afterward. 📌 So the core logic now is ETH is currently at 2720, up 1.05%, still oscillating within the range. This morning's volume surge did not break through the range and was pushed back.
The contract open interest has slowly climbed from 1.5 billion to 1.68 billion over 4 hours, with positions increasing. However, the long-short account ratio dropped from 1.89 to 1.45. The bulls made a push but were pushed down again.
Money is coming in, but the bulls are retreating. In this situation, I usually don't enter directly. The key levels to watch are two: above 2734, holding steady there gives a chance to test 2756; below 2726, a break would look toward 2688.
When it falls back to 2726, watch if the open interest continues to rise or starts to drop.
Are you more concerned about whether 2734 can hold or if 2726 will break first?
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #以太坊主网十一周年：十一年不间断运行与生态成就 #BitMine成全球最大ETH质押方 $ETH
Personal review, not investment advice 🚨 I literally went to the restroom… came back, and XRP had already done the work for me 😂💪
During the intraday dump, $XRP dropped like a needle. The forum was full of panic, but I was watching the order book and noticed something interesting:
Heavy selling, but price just wouldn’t keep falling. Someone was quietly absorbing the sell pressure near the bottom.
That was my cue. I went long at 1.4828.
#ds#FedSeptemberMinutes
The Fed already raised rates in September. What caught my attention is that markets are now pricing October as a much less obvious follow-up 👀
September payrolls added just 29K jobs, while recent Fed signals have pushed expectations toward a pause. Monday's ISM Services PMI now tests whether the economy is cooling beyond hiring.
Then Wednesday's minutes become the bigger read. They should reveal what convinced officials to hike 25bp in September, which inflation and financial-condition signals mattered most, and how much appetite existed for further tightening.
The interesting part is the sequencing.
Weak PMI + cautious minutes could reinforce the idea that September was insurance against inflation, not necessarily the start of another hiking cycle.
Strong services + hawkish minutes would tell a very different story.
For BTC, gold and risk assets, the key isn't what the Fed did last month anymore. It's whether the September hike was one move or the beginning of a path.My personal view on BTC and ETH is not to rush to bottom-fish now; the current phase is just a rebound continuation, not a true major bottom.
BTC's current price is about 86,500, down 31% from the 126,000 peak. It looks like a big drop, but Q3 just saw a 43% gain, so the market hasn't fully corrected.
You can tell from the sentiment: the Fear and Greed Index is 63-70, still in the greed zone. A true cycle bottom sees the index drop to single digits, with the market in despair. Bulls haven't fully capitulated yet, panic selling hasn't appeared, so this isn't the bottom.
On the chart, there are three layers of support below: 82,900, 80,000, and 78,000 (50-week EMA). If 78,000 breaks, it could further drop to 74,500. Resistance above at 87,400 and 90,000 is heavy and hard to break through in one go.
Capital flow is weak; spot buying is shrinking, futures inflow has stalled, and no new external funds are coming in. The sustainability of this rebound is questionable. The FOMC meeting on October 28 is the biggest upcoming uncertainty.
Institutional views are divided: some think the bottom range is already here and suggest dollar-cost averaging; others believe the true bottom will come by the end of 2026, targeting 50,000–55,000.
Trading strategy:
For the long term, you can dollar-cost average into BTC and ETH in batches, but never go all in.
For the short term, don't chase the price at greedy levels; wait for a pullback near 82,000/80,000 before considering buying. If it breaks below 78,000, remember to reduce positions to avoid risk.
Don't look at altcoins; liquidity is too poor.
This is purely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.Not watching the market for two days, ZEC is acting tough again.
$ZEC current price 1336, short-term continuous rebound, RSI6 has reached 74.94, KDJ's J value surged to 87.70, clearly overheated at the 15-minute level, although the bullish momentum remains, the pressure for a pullback is increasing. MACD red bars are weak, upward momentum is slowing down.
Key levels: resistance at 1360, previous high at 1412; support at 1270.
Regarding the overall market, BTC has a slight net inflow from ETFs supporting the bottom, but the daily chart is approaching previous high resistance, also facing pullback risk; ETH lacks incremental buying, the rebound is weak, basically following BTC.
This wave of ZEC is mainly narrative-driven, without ETF funds supporting it, its height completely depends on the overall market sentiment. Chasing longs at this position has too low cost-effectiveness; a small position short can be tried near the resistance zone during the short-term rebound, with stop loss above 1360, consider buying back if the pullback does not break 1270.
High leverage is most afraid of such overheated sudden drops, a single spike can liquidate positions, so position size must be strictly controlled.
Are you shorting ZEC or stuck in a position? Let's discuss in the comments.
Market review, not investment advice.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $FET keeps rising and more people fear missing out, but what is truly lacking at the high level is not enthusiasm, but support during the pullback.
I first look at the levels, not guessing the direction. The current price is 0.2611, about 15.40% away from the 1-hour support at 0.2209, and about 1.49% away from resistance at 0.265. Here, there is no shortage of directional guesses, but what is lacking is the sustainability after the price truly breaks through the boundary.
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are relatively strong, with RSI reaching 71 and 80 respectively. The strength has not disappeared, but the sentiment is already crowded; at this point, what really matters is not guessing the highest point, but seeing if the high-level support can quickly recover the pullback.
There are only two conditions that would make me change my judgment. My observation line is very clear: only if it stands back above and holds 0.265 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 0.2209, then attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.2146. If the upper side continues to be pressured, the 4-hour resistance at 0.265 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
To continuously track this segment, just remember 0.265 and 0.2209. I will come back in the next round to check if my judgment has been overturned by the market.
Will there be buyers at the first obvious pullback, or will it become an exit point for crowded trades?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.Last Friday's non-farm payrolls came in at 29,000, while the market was originally expecting 90,000 — quite a big miss. The August numbers were revised down by over 130,000, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. There just aren't that many jobs available anymore. The hopes for October are basically gone; everyone's focus has shifted to December.
Before I go on a long trip, I usually check three things: engine oil, road conditions, and brakes. This week, the market is the same — just three things.
First, the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes at 2 a.m. Thursday. Whether the tone for December will be dovish or not can be seen from the minutes.
Second, the G7 announced plans to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel to suppress prices. Whether they can actually hold prices down depends on whether the Middle East cooperates.
Third, the Treasury is conducting long-term bond buybacks and will auction new 10-year and 30-year bonds. Long-term interest rates are hanging near a 20-plus-year high. Whether investors rush in or not reveals the market's attitude toward the cost of money.
Additionally, the US dollar index hit a 17-month high, while gold dropped nearly 2% last week. The sentiment is actually conflicted — on one hand, money is expensive; on the other, there's fear of inflation.
As a small-time driver, I don't understand the big game; I just keep track and drive at my own pace. What are you watching this week?
Personal record sharing, not investment advice. Zcash's NU7 upgrade has been activated on the testnet, marking another significant milestone for ZEC to regain attention.
On October 5th, the Zcash NU7 network upgrade was activated on the testnet at block height 4,465,026.
The testnet upgrade means the new rules have entered the practical verification phase. The focus now shifts to the mainnet upgrade timing and the feedback from the community and developers on the new features.
For ZEC, the greatest significance of such upgrades is not the immediate short-term capital inflow, but the continued strengthening of privacy, public chain performance, and network infrastructure expectations.
The transmission logic is straightforward:
Testnet activation → feature verification → mainnet launch anticipation heats up → market attention increases → ZEC capital and trading volume rise → price begins to trade on upgrade expectations.
However, it is important to note that testnet activation does not mean the mainnet has successfully upgraded, nor does it guarantee a price increase for ZEC. If the market has already priced in the upgrade expectations, the mainnet launch might instead trigger a "good news already priced in" scenario.
My judgment is that in the short term, ZEC should focus on two things: whether upgrade-related news can continue to ferment, and whether trading volume and capital inflow expand in sync.
If news continues to be released + capital inflow + price breaks out with volume, the upgrade rally may continue.
If the price only rises following the news but volume does not keep up, one should be cautious of a pullback after expectations are realized.
Therefore, this NU7 upgrade is better viewed as an event-driven observation window for ZEC, rather than chasing the price immediately upon testnet activation.
Next, the focus should be on the mainnet activation time and the specific details of the upgrade.$ 但越是这种时候，我反而越会对 @SeismicSys 保持谨慎。👀 几种隐私币上涨，并不能直接证明整个赛道已经形成长期趋势。加密市场过去反复出现过类似剧本： 价格上涨 → 叙事升温 → 流动性涌入 → 项目借势扩散 → 资金转向下一条主线。 所以，Seismic 当前的表现，也可能只是受益于这一轮隐私板块的资金轮动。 “机密金融基础设施”确实有想象空间，但真正值得关注的问题是： 传统金融科技公司真的会愿意为一条新的 L1 买单吗？ 毕竟，私有数据库、许可型系统、可信执行环境（TEE）以及现有隐私技术，已经能够解决部分类似需求。 如果未来隐私叙事降温，Seismic 是否还能靠真实需求维持市场关注度？ 最终市场还是会回到几个最现实的问题： 🔹 谁正在真正使用它？ 🔹 用户或企业到底在为哪些服务付费？ 🔹 为什么这些需求必须通过 L1 来实现？ 🔹 网络是否能形成可持续的收入和应用生态？ 隐私叙事可以带来关注， 但真正决定长期价值的，还是实际使用、真实收入和持续需求。 Narrative 可以点燃行情， 但只有产品和用户才能让行情走得更远。 #ZEC #XMR #SeismiIs Bitcoin still rising?🤒🤒
Institutional buying cools down, BTC's upward push loses its "booster"
Last week, BTC spot ETFs recorded a large inflow of $2.39 billion, but this week it sharply dropped to about $83 million, showing a clear decline in institutional chasing interest. Details show a net outflow of $149 million on Wednesday, a return inflow of $103 million on Thursday, and only an additional $31.7 million on Friday. After offsetting inflows and outflows, new buying power has significantly shrunk.
$ETH performed even weaker: institutional funds have withdrawn for three consecutive days, totaling about $118 million, with no signs of returning yet; SOL also saw a small outflow, indicating some funds are retreating from the periphery of mainstream coins.
Although $BTC rose above $85,000, large institutions did not increase their positions accordingly, so the upward momentum is not solid. Without large institutional buying re-entering later, it will not be easy to effectively hold above $87,200; a more likely scenario is repeated oscillation at high levels rather than a smooth breakout.
In short: prices are strengthening, but funds are becoming cautious. $SOL #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $ARB opened a short position at 0.2035 this morning
Luckily it didn't break through 0.205, stop loss set at 520
Instead, there was a wick that hit the take profit point but slipped quite a bit, just placed a long order at 0.2025 with floating profit now
$ZEC had a long order at 1319 before sleep last night, but it only reached 1334 before the market turned too fast, afraid it wouldn't hit so took the loss first
ZEC is really hard to trade for ultra-short term
$ETH Ethereum at 2721 was tempting to go long, as mentioned yesterday, as long as Ethereum holds above 2710, you can go long
The morning session pushing up to 2739 was really strong
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要