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BTC, I think this wave will at least pull up to around $79K before it might stop, and around $83K is very likely to encounter the first real resistance.
But honestly, it's very normal to miss out on this kind of market.
If your trading system built over the past year is: price drops → rush to catch the rebound
rebound → look for a position to short
then you will most likely do exactly the same thing this time.
Recently, some people have actually started going long all the way,
but they run at $70K, or even reverse to short.
Why?
Because doing this over the past year really made money. The problem is, this kind of continuous violent short squeeze market might only happen once a year.
If you try to catch this "once-a-year" market,
and chase longs mindlessly on every rebound,
you might get beaten down by the market for a whole year first.
So I actually think:
If you made money over the past year by "shorting the rebound",
then missing out on this violent surge is completely normal.
At least it means you have your own trading system.
But if you have been going long all the way, bottom-fishing all the way, losing money all the way over the past year,
and now there really comes an epic rebound and you still miss out...
then I can only say:
You took all the hits in the bear market,
and didn’t get a bite of the bull market meat.
The most important thing in trading is never:
"I have to catch every market move."
But rather:
When the market move that belongs to you appears, do you have the ability to take the money away. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ The strategy hasn't changed, but there's an important market situation you need to know —
**BTC briefly dropped to $75,560 early this morning, briefly breaking through the first target of $75,700.**
Current prices (around 13:50):
- BTC ~$76,200 (24H low $75,560, high $78,835)
- ETH ~$2,417 (24H low $2,382, also broke through $2,400)
- SOL ~$94 (24H low $87.85, just short of $85)
**What happened:**
1. After BTC surged to $79,400 last night, a huge whale sold 7,700 BTC over three days (about $577 million), directly turning $80K into a ceiling
2. Early morning, BTC plunged sharply from $79,000 to $74,200 (some exchanges had spikes), with $1.4 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours and 250,000 people liquidated, a disaster for longs
3. But BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion over the past 5 days, ETH ETFs net inflow of $690 million, institutions are buying in
**How to view it:**
This drop was caused by whale selling plus high-leverage long liquidations, not a deterioration of fundamentals. ETF inflows indicate institutions are bottom-fishing. BTC and ETH briefly touched the first target levels but quickly rebounded; SOL hasn't reached its target yet.
**Operation suggestions remain unchanged, but you can choose:**
- If you want to be more cautious, continue waiting for all three coins to reach their targets simultaneously (SOL hasn't hit $85 yet), or wait for BTC to stabilize below $75,700 before acting
- If you think BTC/ETH have already given an opportunity and don't want to wait, you can execute the first batch for BTC and ETH (spot BTC ¥4,000 + ETH ¥3,000, futures BTC long 100U), and add SOL after $85
I tend to wait a bit longer — that early morning dip was a spike, not a stable breakdown; the whale is still selling, and Nvidia's earnings on 8/27 and Jackson Hole on 8/28 are next week, so uncertainty remains. But if you're afraid of missing out, going in with half a position is reasonable, especially since the position size is light.
What do you think?The core of this news flash is not "how much she bought," but the contrast.
- Rashida Tlaib previously opposed the CLARITY Act, but in her latest financial disclosure, her retirement account holds Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
- This indicates that even though there are verbal disagreements on crypto legislation, ETFs as a compliant entry point have already been accepted by some U.S. politicians as normal asset allocation.
- The market impact is more about sentiment and narrative: on one side, regulatory discussions continue; on the other, institutional entry points for BTC and ETH are increasingly accepted.
- But don’t jump to conclusions about definite bullish or bearish effects; the disclosure only shows the holding limit, not that she is currently increasing her position, nor does it prove a change in stance. Why not spin off Alibaba Cloud for a separate listing when they're so short on cash?
Answer: If they spin it off, the e-commerce instant retail business will really have no cover.
Good news for tech hardware and semiconductors! Over HKD 80 billion, which already accounts for about 5% of Alibaba's total, a massive placement!
And it's all invested in AI, continuing to bet on computing power. Such a large proportion invested actually already represents that Alibaba has started to transform; it is no longer a traditional e-commerce company but an AI infrastructure company!
First share placement in 7 years, really burning money! This placement is second only to Google and Intel; Google placed over USD 80 billion, Intel USD 20 billion, these are all American tech companies. Unexpectedly, Asia also has Alibaba, placing USD 10.2 billion.
However, for shareholders, my friends who bought Alibaba shares are already complaining there, saying it hasn't brought returns to investors, the main business is facing collapse, reckless investments, and reckless spending.
I think, let alone shareholder returns, for a tech company in an iteration cycle, just being able to hold on and survive is already good enough! The more important signal is not that BTC briefly cleared $78,800, but that the rebound coincided with about $1.9B flowing into US spot BTC ETFs last week. With ETH ETFs adding roughly $697M, combined inflows reached their strongest weekly level since last October.
My read: this gives the move a firmer spot-demand base than a rally driven mainly by short covering. Still, BTC easing toward $77,000 shows the next test is#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #NvidiaServerPriceHike $HYPE The bears have reversed. In the previous round, short-term whales still held about 2.41 million USD HYPE short positions and 2.59 million USD BTC short positions, then quickly added short positions and then quickly covered the market. Official trading shows that approximately 4.56 million USD HYPE short positions and 4.69 million USD BTC short positions have been closed, resulting in a total profit of about 18.6k USD; In the latest official snapshot, neither side has any remaining perpetual positions or open orders. Meanwhile, a swing wallet with 30 days of stable profits still holds about 1.18 million USD HYPE long positions. The previous round of long-bear standoff has already become unbalanced: short-term bears exit, mid-term bulls remain.BTC and gold are rising together, so what exactly is the market worried about?
BTC surged sharply this week, with a weekly increase of over 20%. But what I found more worth paying attention to today is not how much BTC has risen, but that:
gold is also rising.
Two seemingly completely different assets strengthening simultaneously reveals investors' concerns about the purchasing power of the dollar and future liquidity.
Recently, the yield on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds has risen significantly, and the U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term bond repurchases. The market has started to revisit a term:
Debasement Trade — currency devaluation trade.
In plain terms: if investors worry about the long-term purchasing power decline of fiat currency, they will convert part of their money into relatively scarce assets.
Gold is the traditional answer, and BTC is becoming another answer.
But there is another booster for this round of BTC's rise: a short squeeze.
After the price breaks through, short sellers stop losses and get liquidated, forced to buy back BTC, which further pushes the price up.
So I won’t directly conclude "a big bull market has arrived" just because BTC rose over 20% in a week.
Instead, I focus on three questions:
① Can BTC ETFs continue to attract inflows?
② After the surge, can BTC hold steady at a high level?
③ How will the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields move next?
My biggest takeaway today is not predicting how much more BTC can rise, but changing the question to:
Who is buying? Why buy now? Will this reason still hold a month from now?
If the purchasing power of fiat currency continues to decline in the future, would you rather hold gold or BTC? $BTC Robinhood Chain's locked value has surpassed the $1 billion mark, and the real on-chain trading volume is now directly driving $UNI's buyback and burn.
The buy-side support in the spot market is gradually being confirmed by underlying cash flow. After the fee switch was activated, the protocol's daily revenue once exceeded $240,000, with the buyback volume surpassing that of the mainnet and Base.
This liquidity shift stems from the choice of underlying architecture. The network directly uses the full Uniswap matching components as its native liquidity base, allowing external capital injection without intermediate layer losses.
Once the single chain contributes about 60% of the total protocol fees network-wide, the actual on-chain trading volume becomes strongly and directly linked to the token deflation rhythm in the secondary market.
If active on-chain funds continue to accumulate and trading frequency remains high, the burn rate will keep increasing the concentration of chips in the spot market, forming a more solid liquidity buy-side support.
If the initial trading heat of the application chain cools rapidly or liquidity is diluted by other diversion mechanisms, the daily buyback volume will quickly decline, and the momentum for valuation repricing will weaken accordingly.
Currently, the market's pricing of fundamental improvements is still based on a linear extrapolation of daily fee contributions. Once the network turnover rate experiences a cliff-like drop, the deflation logic will be tested.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the network can maintain the current proportion of daily protocol revenue contribution while keeping the locked value stable above $1 billion.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入ETH’s move above $2,500 and retreat toward $2,400 looks less like a clean trend signal than a test of who is setting the marginal price. More than $1.1B in 24-hour short liquidations shows how much forced buying accelerated the rally, while roughly $697M of weekly US spot ETF inflows points to a separate source of demand.#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #NvidiaServerPriceHike The core reason for the start of this BTC rally is that the U.S. Treasury has suppressed long-term U.S. bond yields. As long-term yields decline and the dollar weakens, assets highly sensitive to liquidity such as Bitcoin and gold have shown strong synchronized resonance.
After a week of a sharp rise, the upward momentum is somewhat exhausted. The resistance at 80,000 is difficult to break through directly. The ideal scenario is a pullback to digest profit-taking, clear out the floating supply, and then push up again to break through 82,000. As long as the pullback does not effectively break below 74,000, there will be a second chance to charge.Let me share some of my own observations. The large accumulation of ammunition and sentiment during Bitcoin $BTC's low-level consolidation over half a year is certainly the main reason for this round of the market, but there is quite an explanation as to why the fuse was lit at this particular timing:
1. From the perspective of the Trump family's interests, they need the crypto space to remain prosperous. Bitcoin doesn't necessarily need to keep rising, but a liquidity-rich exit window is definitely something they want.
2. Under the Genius Act framework, stablecoins are structural buyers of short-term debt. When Bassett doubles his purchase of long-term debt, the firmness and purchasing power in the short-term debt market are very much needed. Creating a crypto bull market by pushing up Bitcoin is the most convenient way to increase stablecoin demand:
Crypto bull market → stablecoin circulation rises → short-term debt demand rises → providing capital for Treasury's long-term operations → USD weakens → crypto rises again
Although the current total stablecoin circulation is around $300 billion, the additional short-term debt demand generated by one bull market year is only a few tens of billions. But this is one of the few directions with growth potential and an important component of Treasury 2.0, deserving special attention.
3. The international macro environment determines that this round is more likely a BTC independent bull/rotational bull, rather than a comprehensive bull across all risk assets. Because there is no synchronized global easing now, and from the previous discussion, Bitcoin's rise has its own historical mission.
4. With the long ends of the US, UK, and Japan under simultaneous pressure and central banks continuously buying gold, both gold and Bitcoin have their roles. Gold is the official sector's outlet, while BTC is the outlet for private and gray capital.
5. Previously, the crypto space fully shifted towards US stocks; boosting crypto assets benefits their own survival. So even if this time there was no prior collusion, it is very easy to quickly reach a tacit understanding afterward to form a joint force.
Considering all these factors, the direction points entirely to a mid-term bullish outlook (family interests at least support until November 3, the fiscal circuit is structural, and international demand is spiraling upward). But the trajectory that best fits the political timetable is not a straight rally to the midterm elections. Starting next week, there are many macro windows to be utilized, and there is no reason to waste them.
I believe the smoothest political market path is:
- Reactivate risk appetite and the crypto market in August
- Use PCE, Jackson Hole, and FOMC from late August to September to clean up leverage and restore Federal Reserve credibility
- Repair the market in October based on oil prices and inflation
- Try to keep a better market condition near the November 3 midterm elections
This path benefits all parties:
- Trump gains crypto friendliness and wealth effects
- Walsh gets a chance to demonstrate independence and anti-inflation credibility
- Bassett uses buybacks to prevent the long-term debt market from losing control
- High leverage is regularly cleaned up, avoiding sudden explosions before the election
- Policy tools do not need to be exhausted all at once in August
Therefore, a straight rise from $80,000 to $100,000 is not the only bull market path, and may not even be the path that best aligns with political and fiscal interests. The traditional internet brokerage giant Robinhood's Layer 2 network, Robinhood Chain, has officially surpassed the $1 billion mark in total value locked (TVL). However, the most significant valuation repricing and cash flow capture in the secondary market did not remain with Robinhood itself or the underlying L2 settlement layer but was directly transmitted to the leading decentralized exchange token $UNI. 1. Phenomenon and Contrast: Robinhood's On-Chain Prosperity and UNI's Value Capture As an application-oriented L2 built on Arbitrum Orbit, Robinhood Chain abandoned a self-developed AMM matching engine in its architectural design and instead uses Uniswap (fully deployed v2, v3, v4, and UniswapX) as its only native public liquidity base on-chain. After the protocol fee switch on Robinhood Chain was officially activated at the end of July, the real on-chain trading activity quickly converted into strong buybacks and burns of the UNI token: The largest source of burns on the entire network: Robinhood Chain contributed about 60% of Uniswap's total protocol revenue, with daily protocol fees once exceeding $240,000, and the daily burn scale significantly surpassing Ethereum mainnet and Base. The actual deflation speed exceeded expectations: According to Standard ChaBitcoin God's Candle = New Bull Market
In the past two cycles, one feature has marked the end of Bitcoin bear markets: an explosive weekly reversal that caught almost everyone off guard.
It often starts with a short squeeze. As the price rises, bearish traders add new short positions, which are then liquidated as the rally accelerates.
In 2019, Bitcoin had a +31.98% weekly bullish candle, which helped mark the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull phase.
The same thing happened in January 2023. After the FTX collapse, market sentiment was extremely pessimistic, and Bitcoin surged +24.90% in one week, overturning many bearish narratives.
Something similar may be happening now.
While many participants expect the market bottom to appear in October based on the four-year cycle theory, Bitcoin rose from $62,700 to $79,500 in one week, a +26.81% increase.
If history repeats itself, this strong weekly reversal could be an early signal that $BTC has entered a new bull market cycle. 1. Market Overview: $77,000 Tug-of-War, Over 20% Weekly Surge On August 23, after an epic weekly surge, Bitcoin entered a high-level consolidation. As of press time, BTC is trading in the $77,000-$77,300 range, with a 24-hour drop of about 0.8%-1.1%. The intraday fluctuation range is $76,500-78,500. Over the past week, Bitcoin surged from around $63,000 to a peak of $79,455, with a cumulative gain of over 20% this week—the largest single-week gain since March 2023. The Fear and Greed Index has jumped from "fear" to the greed range. 2. Core Driver: Triple Positive News Sparks a Historic-Level Short Squeeze 1. U.S. Treasury Expands Treasury Repurchases (Triggered by Market Trends) The U.S. Treasury announced it will raise the maximum limit for long-term Treasury bond single repurchases from $2 billion to "no less than $4 billion," effective September 9. The market interpreted this as a signal easing long-term yield pressure—after the announcement, long-term U.S. Treasury yields retreated, the dollar weakened, gold and Bitcoin rose in tandem, and "currency depreciation trading" reheated up. 2. $4.5 billion short positions suffered a bloodbath The market had previously accumulated excessively imbalanced short positions, but this week's rapid rally forced short positions to close out concentrically—total liquidations in the market over three days reached $4.5 billion, with nearly $2.5 billion of Bitcoin leveraged short positions liquidated. Over $1 billion in crypto asset short positions were cleared within an hour, marking CoinGlass's highest level since 2021. Short squeezes have become the driving force behind sharp short-term price surgesThis Week's Crypto Market Review: Historic Short Squeeze, but High-Level Signals Have Changed
This week, the crypto market experienced an extreme short squeeze, far exceeding conventional expectations:
Bitcoin ($BTC): Violently surged from a low of 62,800 to stabilize above 78,000, with a weekly increase of nearly 25%, marking the strongest weekly performance since March 2023.
Ethereum ($ETH): Showed even stronger resilience, with a weekly gain of 35%, clearly outperforming Bitcoin, and strong altcoin correlation in this round.
Core Driving Force: Historic Short Squeeze
The key feature of this rally is an extreme short squeeze combined with large-scale short liquidation:
· Over the past seven days, total liquidations across the network exceeded $3.3 billion, with over 90% being short liquidations, totaling nearly $3 billion, a historic level.
· On August 19 alone, short liquidations surpassed $400 million, with a large number of low-position short orders from earlier completely cleared, forming the main driving force behind the rally.
Capital Flow: ETF Inflows, but Not Active Buying
· Bitcoin spot ETFs ended a long-term outflow, achieving five consecutive days of inflows this week, with a cumulative net inflow of $853 million.
· Objectively, this reflects a warming of capital sentiment and demand recovery, without massive net inflows from frantic institutional buying. The main driver of this rally is not active institutional buying but contract-driven short squeezes.
Volume and Price Structure Analysis
· Breakout Phase: Healthy volume, volume surge on breakout, clear capital entry confirming trend validity.
· After the Surge: The market entered a high-level low-volume consolidation, a normal correction pattern after a trend rally, with no severe bearish divergence yet.
4-hour chart clearly shows:
· The volume during the earlier breakout phase was the peak of this rally;
· Current volume has gradually fallen to about half the peak, showing typical volume contraction after a rise.
· Bullish strength was strongest at the low breakout point and weakens as it approaches the 80,000 level;
· Short positions have begun to reposition in the 78,000–79,000 high range, with localized selling pressure emerging.
Daily Chart Structure to Watch:
· 62,800–72,000 range: volume and price move synchronously, healthy uptrend driven by real capital inflow;
· Above 72,000: price reached new highs, but volume failed to keep up, showing slight volume-price divergence.
Summary and Personal Judgment
· Long-term trend: Overall bullish trend remains intact, market structure still strong.
· Short-term signals: Three major signals at high levels—declining bullish momentum, volume-price divergence, and short positions re-entering.
· Phase change: Short-term market will shift from "mindless rally" to a phase of "strong consolidation with mixed rises and corrections."
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 ChainCatcher reports that according to the latest data from Coinglass, the cryptocurrency panic and greed index is currently at 67 (greed range), down 3 points from yesterday; The 7-day average is 55, and the 30-day average is only 34, indicating a rapid recovery in market sentiment from the previous deep panic to a neutral to slightly greedy range. Emotions and Market Logic 1. The index rebounded from the 30-day low of 34 to 67, indicating that BTC's current short squeeze rebound has boosted risk appetite across the market. The main BTC-led rally is gradually coming to an end. Historically, when the panic and greed index stabilizes above 60, incremental funds gradually spread from Bitcoin to small- and mid-cap altcoins, and the conditions for a counterfeit rotation are now in place. 2. The current index has not yet touched the extreme greed range above 75, so there is still room for sentiment to rise in the short term. There will not be an immediate overall correction, and there is a sufficient window for capital to maneuver. 3. This round of rally is driven by short liquidations + net ETF inflows. After a short-term spike in BTC market share, profit-taking funds will seek more resilient targets, with public blockchains, DeFi, and trending narrative altcoins benefiting first. Risk Warning: This round of sentiment recovery is driven by BTC's one-sided rise. The altcoin season will not rally across the board, but will only show structural differentiation. Leading altcoins with authentic narratives and ecosystem support will be the first to start, while air coins and small-cap coins without fundamentals will still struggle to break out independently. At the same time, expectations for Fed rate hikes continue to rise, and macro liquidity disturbances could disrupt rotation at any time, so blindly chasing small caps should not be advised[🌍Planet News]
On August 22, 2026, after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on approximately $20 billion–$28 billion (about 5% of Canada's exports to the U.S.) worth of Canadian goods, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that starting September 8, Canada will implement equivalent retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.
New U.S. tariffs: covering about $20 billion–$28 billion of Canadian exports (about 5% of total exports to the U.S.), using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Mainly targeting alcohol, dairy products, motor vehicles, etc., but the actual list is broader, including:
Alcohol (beer, wine, spirits, etc.)
Dairy products (milk, cream, whey, lactose, etc.)
Cement, clothing, furniture, plastics, electronics/mechanical, wood products, hockey equipment, seeds, toys, and hundreds of tariff codes.
These are in addition to existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, lumber, etc.
Don't panic too much when you see the tariffs‼️ You might be more concerned about the impact on the stock market, the global economy, and our wallets. To answer in one sentence: the direct impact on U.S. stocks is relatively limited; short-term localized volatility may occur, but it is unlikely to trigger a systemic major decline. Most affected companies are small to medium-sized or have high exposure in specific businesses, with very little direct impact on S&P 500 heavyweight stocks (tech giants, financials, etc.). 🤑In the past few days, the crypto market has experienced a very typical and easily misinterpreted trend. $BTC quickly surged from about $64,700 on August 19 to nearly $80,000, completing over a 20% recovery in just a few days, then pulled back from the high to around $76,000–$77,000. Many altcoins followed the rally but then quickly gave back their gains. This led to two prevailing opinions in the market. One says the bull market has restarted, and the pullback is a buying opportunity. The other says this is just a short squeeze, and after the rise, prices will fall back. From a hedge fund perspective, I wouldn’t rush to choose between these two answers. Because the real question isn’t "Will it go up or down today?" but rather: Has the marginal buyer in the market changed after this round of rally? This is the most important variable for me to judge the current market. My conclusion is clear: I remain bullish on this mid-term recovery and believe the current pullback is more like a chip exchange after the rise, rather than the start of a new systemic downturn. Based on this judgment, I have continued to increase my position in $CORE during this recent pullback. But I want to put $CORE aside for now and start by talking about the whole market. 1. $BTC: What really matters is not the 20% rise, but who bought the price up. This round of $BTC rally is easily explained as a "short squeeze." This explanation is not wrong. Over the past week, a large number of shorts were forced to close positions after the price broke through key levels, leverage...Weekend consolidation, next week might be the real node for a surge to 80,000
$BTC is still hovering around 77,000, the weekend market is calm, but sideways movement isn't necessarily bad; it seems more like waiting for a new catalyst.
The core drivers of this rally remain the same: the U.S. Treasury raised the long-term bond repurchase limit from 2 billion to 4 billion, which the market interpreted as "not wanting long-term interest rates to rise further." When long-term bond yields are suppressed, the dollar weakens, and funds flow into BTC.
This week, BTC has risen over 20% cumulatively, once reaching 79,455, a three-month high. Shorts were liquidated for about 2.7 billion dollars, setting a record. More importantly, spot ETFs have had net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling about 1.6 billion dollars, showing institutions are indeed buying, not just shorts covering.
Short-term, 80,000 is indeed a hurdle; the 80,000 to 82,500 range is a dense chip area where a large amount of trapped and profit-taking positions need to be digested. The daily RSI is above 78, indicating a clear short-term overbought signal.
Three things to watch next week: NVIDIA earnings on Tuesday, the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on Wednesday, and the Federal Reserve Chair's speech, which could be a key signal for the September rate direction.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Okay, here is the market brief reorganized according to your request, with the expression adjusted but the core information unchanged:
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
📊 Current market snapshot (two main themes)
· Theme 1: Emotion-driven explosive tokens
Today's focus is on $PEPE and $CORE. The former surged nearly 24% in a single day and over 61% weekly, but contract positions have also surged, accumulating short-term profit-taking pressure; once the bulls weaken, a sharp drop is likely. The latter rose over 48% in 24 hours, with market cap surpassing $80 million. These tokens lack fundamental anchors, with volatile price swings, so short-term trading requires strict entry cost control.
· Theme 2: Relatively strong coins linked by sector movement
$XRP, $DOGE, and $BNB show more solid trends. $XRP has gained over 43% in the past week and rose about 8% today, with the Korean market accounting for nearly one-third of its trading volume; $DOGE rose nearly 7% today, mainly driven by meme sentiment spillover from $PEPE. Compared to pure air coins, these have some community foundation and liquidity support.
#BTC fluctuates after rally, ETF funds continue inflow
🚨 Two risks to watch closely
· Leverage liquidation risk: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network approached $895 million, with long positions accounting for about 54%. $XRP, $DOGE, and $SOL rank among the top liquidations, indicating the current market's leverage chasing is high; once prices retract, chained liquidations will amplify the decline.
· Instant pump trap: Taking $FOLD as an example, it surged 80% within 30 minutes triggered by listing news on a Korean exchange. Such news-driven impulse moves often lack market depth, making it easy to get trapped at high levels after chasing, with liquidity risk far outweighing potential gains.
#NVIDIA AI servers may rise over 15% in price
💡 Summary
Today's short-term trading opportunities are indeed concentrated in meme coins and strong altcoins like $XRP/$DOGE, but the underlying tone is high leverage and high emotion. Strategically, either participate lightly with fast in-and-out trades on high volatility, or wait for pullbacks to enter in batches on relatively stable coins. Whichever side you choose, total position size and stop-loss discipline must be prioritized.
Do you prefer to play the volatility of $PEPE/$CATE, or to position for the trend of $XRP/$DOGE? You can tell me your preference, and I will help you refine your approach.$ETH is under profit-taking pressure above $2500, with the current core conflict being the liquidity relay between leverage clearing after derivatives short liquidations and spot ETF allocation buying accumulation.
The price quickly fell back to around $2400 after touching $2500 and fluctuated. Over $1.1 billion in short liquidations in the past 24 hours completed the first phase of forced liquidation driving. Short-term leverage clearing released upward squeeze effects, and the market returned to spot capital flow competition.
Among the driving factors, spot capital flow accounts for the highest proportion. Last week, spot Ethereum ETF net inflows reached about $697 million, a new high for the year. Allocation buying is replacing early short-term speculative funds, providing a liquidity cushion at $2400.
The bullish scenario requires the ETF's daily average capital to maintain continuous net inflows and volume turnover in the $2400-$2450 range. If the price can stabilize above $2450 to absorb trapped positions, incremental spot buying will push $ETH to retest $2500 and open up liquidity space above.
The bearish scenario triggers if ETF inflows significantly slow or turn into net outflows, causing insufficient spot support. If the key support at $2380 breaks, long profit-taking will combine with high-leverage derivatives liquidations, triggering a secondary retest near $2200.
The invalidation condition is a secondary reversal in capital nature. If the spot market loses $2380 without ETF selling pressure, it means buying liquidity is exhausted, and the market will return to a high-leverage speculative phase.
In the next 7 days, focus on the continuity of ETF single-day net inflow data and changes in spot trading volume in the $2380 to $2400 support area.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元📊 Trump's June Trading List: Over 1000 Transactions, Palantir's Repeated Fluctuations, Coinbase's Precise Timing
Financial documents disclosed on August 22 show that Trump made over 1000 securities transactions in June, totaling between $78.1 million and $263 million.
Several transactions are worth noting:
On June 22, he sold Vanguard ETFs worth between $5 million and $25 million, the largest single transaction. Palantir fluctuated repeatedly—bought on June 3, sold in batches on June 16 and 18, then bought back on June 23 and 24, precisely timed around the US-Iran peace agreement. Berkshire Hathaway bought between $1 million and $5 million on June 18 and sold part on June 24. Meta sold between $1 million and $5 million the same day, then made small repurchases. Coinbase saw continuous in-and-out trades, selling in batches on June 12, 18, and 23, then buying back on the 24th—shouting on stage that "America will become the crypto capital" while making swing trades behind the scenes.
Looking at the whole year, Trump made over 21,000 transactions in 2025, with a total scale between $600 million and $1.86 billion, often coinciding with market events he triggered, even buying and selling the same security on the same day.
The White House responded that investments are managed by independent institutions, so there is no conflict of interest. But a president making over 1000 trades in June, with timing precisely aligned before and after news he created himself—does that count as independent management? Call it what you will, on paper, the president's "cash power" is way stronger than your contracts.According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, about 1 hour ago, the address marked as the TRUMP token team transferred out 3,837,000 TRUMP tokens, worth approximately $9.33 million. The related tokens were routed through BitGo before entering OKX.
Pump and dump, are you going to be the bag holder? In the context of increasingly tightened regulation, DOGE's greatest moat may not be its community, but its "origin."
The core standard for determining securities in the United States is the Howey Test: investment of money, common enterprise, and expectation of profits derived from the efforts of others. The vast majority of tokens have pre-sales, fundraising, and founding teams promising development roadmaps at issuance, elements that naturally point to a "security" classification and thus become key targets for SEC enforcement. DOGE is completely different—it has no ICO, no pre-sale, no foundation treasury, and no core team promising any returns to investors. The coin is publicly mined, anyone can participate, and its distribution method is highly similar to Bitcoin.
Because of this, $DOGE is closer to a commodity rather than a security under regulatory frameworks. This means its legal risk structure is simpler: there is no looming threat of retrospective penalties for "unregistered securities issuance," compliance concerns for exchanges listing it are much lower, and legal barriers for institutional capital involvement are correspondingly reduced. In the long-term practice of the SEC and CFTC, assets with proof-of-work and no centralized issuer generally fall under commodity regulation.
Of course, "non-security" does not mean zero risk; general regulations such as market manipulation and tax reporting still apply. But while the entire industry struggles with compliance identity, DOGE, with its most original and decentralized issuance method, has instead secured the most solid legal position—perhaps an unexpected bonus left from its joking beginnings.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 BTC: Short Squeeze or Trend Reversal?
$BTC posted a weekly gain above 23%, breaking $79K and a prolonged consolidation range. Over $3B in short positions were liquidated, while Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.6B in weekly inflows.
This alone does not confirm a new bull market, but the structure differs from a typical relief rally: shorts were squeezed, liquidity returned, and spot demand strengthened. If $BTC holds the breakout zone, a deeper bearish move will require stronger evidence. $BTC BTC experiences volatility after a surge, with continuous inflows into ETFs
After a rapid rally, BTC has entered a high-level consolidation phase, with intensified battles between bulls and bears. However, spot ETFs continue to see steady net inflows, resulting in a scenario where price consolidation coexists with institutional capital entering the market. This divergence signal deserves close attention from Sina Finance. Much of the early momentum in this rally came from concentrated short covering, with leveraged funds quickly pushing prices up. Once short positions are mostly cleared, the market naturally loses short-term explosive power, profit-taking occurs, and the market shifts into a consolidation and digestion phase. The continued inflow into ETFs indicates that institutions have not collectively exited despite the short-term surge. Eased regulatory expectations combined with a marginal decline in long-term US Treasury yields mean some allocation funds are using this consolidation window to build positions, shifting buying pressure from contract short squeezes to genuine spot purchases.
However, it is important to distinguish that ETF net inflows do not necessarily mean the market will move directly upward in a single direction. Capital inflows are slow variables, while price is a fast variable. Even if institutions keep buying, short-term profit-taking and whale sell pressure can still cause pullbacks. The market has now reached a critical psychological threshold, with rising contract financing rates and leverage becoming crowded again. Once ETF inflow momentum weakens, a rapid correction is likely. The core bullish logic lies in continued institutional allocation and improved macro interest rate expectations; risks focus on repeated Fed statements, regulatory policy uncertainties, and liquidation risks of high-leverage positions. The consolidation phase essentially represents a power transition. 【Why I Switched from Bearish to Bullish】
Before August 16, I was still bearish, but now I have started to turn bullish. The reason is simple: the market has already established a direction.
After the direction is set, what is the probability that the price will fall back to the original consolidation range's low point? Let's speak directly with data. The following statistics incorporate Coinbase spot trading volume.
This week's temporary gain: Calculated based on closing at 76600, about 21.95% (weekly close at 8 AM Monday)
Total range amplitude: about 15.95%
This week's Coinbase trading volume: about 70,583 BTC
The trading volume is approximately 1.70 times the median weekly volume of the previous 8 weeks.
What I want to find out is: historically, after weekly gains exceeding 10%, 15%, and 20%, what is the probability that the market will retouch the bottom of the original consolidation range within the next 90, 180, and 365 days?
【The conclusion within the sample is 0, but this does not mean it will never happen in the future.】
There have been 4 historical events with weekly gains reaching 10%:
① 2016-05-23
② 2020-07-27
③ 2023-01-09
④ 2023-10-16
Among them, the one closest to this week's gain exceeding 20% is January 9, 2023:
• Weekly gain about 21.9%
• Previous 60-day range approximately $15,460—$18,385
• Range amplitude about 18.9%
• Trading volume about 1.76 times the median of the previous 8 weeks
• Lowest effective price in the following year about $19,569, still above the upper boundary of the original range
If we refer to the historical market in 2023 and speculate on the low point after breaking through the 60-day consolidation range in 2026, then the next price reference is around 73000. Allowing for spikes, 【71000—73000 is the key range where I consider buying spot】.
If we forcibly follow a four-year cycle, stubbornly waiting for the "last drop" in the second half of the year, or even think it will fall below 57700, under the current strong breakout, I really find it hard to imagine.
So the bears admit defeat at this time and turn bullish; there may still be opportunities to reverse in the future. The big trend is unstoppable, brother.
The above content is only a personal market analysis and trading idea record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position and risk according to your own situation. BITCOIN IS PULLING BACK — BUT WATCH THE BOND MARKET 👀
$BTC surged to nearly $79.5K before slipping back toward $77K, and at first glance, it looks like simple profit-taking.
But the bigger signal may be coming from U.S. Treasuries.
The recent rally was closely tied to Treasury buybacks, which pushed long-term yields lower and improved liquidity conditions.
Now the key question is whether yields start climbing again. ETH’s move above $2,500 and retreat toward $2,400 looks less like a clean trend signal than a test of who is setting the marginal price. More than $1.1B in 24-hour short liquidations shows how much forced buying accelerated the rally, while roughly $697M of weekly US spot ETF inflows points to a separate source of demand.
My read: holding strength after the squeeze matters more than the initial breakout. If spot and ETF demand persists as leverage cools, consolidation could be constructive; if it fades, profit-taking may expose how much of the move depended on positioning. Not advice, just analysis.
#ETHTests2500SUI is one of the most discussed new public blockchains in this cycle and a project I have been following for a long time. Many people call it a competitor to Solana, and some believe it could become the biggest dark horse in the next bull market. However, I think the true determinant of SUI's future value is not just "high TPS," but whether it can support an increasing number of real users and real capital in the coming years. In today's article, I comprehensively analyze SUI's prospects through 2028 from five dimensions: technology, ecosystem, capital, risk, and price. This article is entirely my personal research and opinion and does not constitute investment advice. To conclude, I believe that before 2028, SUI still has the chance to enter the first tier of global mainstream public blockchains, but whether it can create new all-time highs depends on whether its ecosystem growth can continuously exceed market expectations. SUI's greatest advantage lies in that it does not simply replicate Ethereum or Solana but redesigns a foundational architecture better suited for high-performance applications. The official positioning is not only as a Layer 1 but also aims to become a new infrastructure supporting AI, payments, gaming, DeFi, and real-world assets. The Sui Foundation continues to advance capabilities in payments, privacy transactions, and development platforms. Many people first learn about SUI because it comes from Meta's original Diem team. The core team members have long been involved in underlying blockchain development, so from the start, SUI did not adopt the traditional account model but instead uses an Object model and the Move language 🚨 This might be the craziest week of 2026.
Bitcoin surged about 22% in 7 days, once approaching $80,000, marking the strongest weekly performance since March 2024.
Even more remarkable, this rally was not simply driven by "buy orders."
Short positions faced consecutive liquidations, with over $4 billion in short positions forcibly closed within just two days, forcing shorts to cover and further creating a classic short squeeze.
Meanwhile, the entire crypto market added about $500 billion in market value over the week.
ETH rose about 26% for the week, and HYPE surged approximately 36%.
Several key variables behind this rally:
1️⃣ The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, and the market began trading on expectations of "improved liquidity"
2️⃣ The U.S. dollar weakened, with both gold and BTC attracting capital simultaneously
3️⃣ Trump continues to push for a crypto regulatory framework, with rising expectations for the CLARITY Act
4️⃣ ETF funds are flowing back in
5️⃣ Concentrated short covering created a strong upward acceleration
So, this is not just a simple "BTC up 22%."
What truly deserves attention is: macro liquidity expectations + policy catalysts + ETF funds + short squeeze are resonating together.
Of course, the short-term gains have been very steep, and the market may experience intense volatility. But if the liquidity environment continues to improve, this week could become a crucial turning point for a new crypto market trend reversal.
Is the BTC bull market really back?🚨 Who exactly is driving this sudden surge in BTC?
From over 60,000 all the way up to nearly 80,000 USD, many people's first reaction is:
"Is there some big positive news again?"
Actually, it's not that simple.
This rally looks more like a combined force of macro expectations + short squeeze + spot capital all pushing simultaneously.
1️⃣ Macro ignites the fire first
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury buyback programs, combined with a weaker dollar and pressure on long-term Treasury yields, the market has resumed trading on the logic of "improved liquidity" and "dollar depreciation."
So this time, BTC is not the only one rising.
Gold is also strengthening, and risk assets are starting to recover.
2️⃣ Shorts add fuel to the rally
After BTC broke through key resistance, a large number of short positions started to stop loss and liquidate.
This created a very typical cycle:
Price rises → shorts liquidate → forced buying → price continues to rise → more shorts get liquidated.
So the first half of this rally clearly has a strong short squeeze characteristic.
But the third force is what really deserves attention.
3️⃣ ETF capital starts to take over
If it were only driven by liquidations, such rallies usually spike quickly and then pull back fast.
But now, spot BTC ETFs are showing clear net inflows again, indicating the market is not just shorts being forced to buy, but real spot capital is entering.
This is crucial:
Shorts light the fire, spot capital decides how long it burns.
So going forward, I won’t be guessing daily "is this the top," but will focus on three signals:
① Can BTC hold above 70,000 USD steadily?
② Can BTC ETF net inflows continue?
③ Will the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen again?
If capital keeps flowing in, 80,000 USD is just the next resistance, not necessarily the end.
But if the short squeeze ends, ETF capital cools down significantly, and the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen again, then caution is needed.
Because without new capital taking over, a rally driven solely by liquidations can easily turn into a high-level consolidation.
So the easiest mistake now is:
"It’s already risen so much, it must fall, just short it."
The market won’t fall just because you think "it’s risen too much."
Don’t rush to fight the trend hard before it’s truly broken.
A real top isn’t because it’s risen a lot, but because buying pressure starts to fade. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $BTC Watching the market at 3 a.m., my finger paused on the K-line without moving — this rally wasn’t driven by buying, it was short sellers being forced out. $BTC from 62k to 79k, if you look at the daily K-line, it seems like a news-driven bull run, but what really pushed the price was the massive short positions accumulated between 62k and 67k being continuously liquidated, with 24-hour liquidation volume once exceeding $3 billion. It felt like a spring compressed to its limit, strings breaking one by one, the price was "squeezed" up rather than bought up. The capital inflow from spot ETFs is real too, but what’s more noteworthy is that since September, the U.S. Treasury has raised the lower limit of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion each time — this is a subtle signal of easing in the broader environment. On the Trump side, the CLARITY Act is being pushed, and the CFTC is laying the groundwork for a compliance framework — policy, liquidity, and short squeeze all stacking together, it’s no longer just a single positive factor. $ETH’s catch-up rally is fierce, nearly 20% in a single day, with spot ETF inflows around $189 million. $HYPE is even more dramatic; whenever Trump mentions the CFTC advancing its compliance framework, the price takes off directly. Altcoins’ resilience is returning. My view is that this stage feels more like a "continuation phase" rather than a "starting phase" — the first major uptrend has completed, and the market is digesting gains and searching for the next consensus. On the bullish side: policy expectations are still fermenting, ETF funds show no signs of retreat, and after short positions are cleaned out, resistance to further upside is reduced. On the risk side: short-term gainsWeb3 Pan-Entertainment and On-Chain Live Streaming (Suitable for attracting younger, entertainment-oriented communities)
Title: On-Chain Live Streaming + Real-Time Tipping: How Does ACO Build a Web3 Version of Interactive Entertainment Ecosystem? 🎥
Traditional Web3 products tend to be overly "financialized," lacking daily high-frequency entertainment stickiness. ACO directly brings decentralized social and real-time audio-video live streaming onto the chain:
🎤 On-chain HD live streaming & voice rooms: Supports hosts to start streaming, content sharing, and real-time community voice interaction, with data and relationship chains fully owned by DID identity.
🎁 Peer-to-peer real-time tipping: Fans' tips are credited to the host's wallet via smart contracts within seconds, eliminating the high 50% commission charged by Web2 platforms.
⚡ Interaction as mining: Users accumulate social computing power by interacting, tipping, and sharing in the live room, sharing rewards from the entire network's ecological mining pool.
Shifting from pure "speculative trading" to "play-to-earn," will entertainment scenarios be the next entry point for tens of millions of users?
#OnChainLiveStreaming #Web3Entertainment #ACOecosystem #CreatorEconomy #DecentralizedSocial #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
I believe the nature of this ETH rally is undergoing a fundamental shift. It is no longer just a short squeeze after an oversell but a structurally driven market dominated by spot ETF inflows. However, the $2500 level faces significant profit-taking pressure in the short term.
The judgment mainly comes from the change in the nature of the funds. Although over $1.1 billion in short liquidations in the past 24 hours did indeed drive a rapid price spike, that was only the catalyst. The real fuel was last week's net inflow of about $697 million into the US spot Ethereum ETF, marking a new high since 2026. This level of incremental capital usually indicates the entry of allocation-driven buying rather than pure short-term speculation.
From the market details, OKX spot ETH quickly fell back to around $2400 after touching above $2500, indicating a large amount of short-term profit-taking and previous trapped positions at that level. The current consolidation is a process of buying time to create space, cleansing high-leverage floating positions that followed the bottom. As long as the ETF net inflow trend does not reverse, the support near $2400 will remain relatively solid.
For traders, the strategy now should not be chasing highs or selling lows but observing the strength of support in the $2400-$2450 range. If ETF data remains positive in the coming days and the price holds above key moving averages, this consolidation is an opportunity to catch the pullback; conversely, if fund inflows slow, beware of the risk of a drop back to the $2200 level.
@OKX星球 Talking about $ETH, according to OKX market data, $ETH has continued to weaken after falling below 2400 USD, currently trading around 2357 USD, down 3.6% in 24 hours.
Additionally, the total market capitalization has fallen about 5.6% in the same period, indicating that this is not an isolated crash of ETH but a widespread risk contraction.
Notably, on-chain data shows that F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun's related address transferred 12,765 ETH to Binance within three days and withdrew 87.68 million USDC to repay Spark loans, suspected to be reducing positions and deleveraging during the rebound.
This address still holds about 65,000 ETH and 1,000 WBTC, valued at over 230 million USD, currently likely reducing liquidation risk rather than bearishly selling off.
On the other hand, institutional funds are still buying. The Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of 185 million USD in a single day, marking five consecutive days of inflows; last week, it attracted about 697 million USD in total.
Therefore, the current short-term weakness of ETH coexists with a mid-term demand recovery.
Whale debt repayment indicates that highly leveraged funds are starting to defend, while ETF inflows provide support from below.
The key point to watch is whether 2400 USD can be quickly reclaimed.
If ETF inflows continue but the price fails to recover, it indicates heavy selling pressure in the market! If the price recovers with volume, the current pullback is more likely a deleveraging after a rise rather than a trend reversal to a downtrend.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $ETH Market Participant Capital Structure Analysis
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
The recent surge of Ethereum to $2500 was driven by three types of capital.
The first type is contract short funds. In 24 hours, short liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion, with a large number of short positions forcibly closed. The forced buy-ins from liquidations directly pushed the price rapidly higher. However, short liquidations are a one-time bonus; after a large number of short positions are cleared on the market, this upward momentum will quickly fade.
The second type is ETF institutional funds. Ethereum ETFs recorded the highest weekly net inflow of $697 million in 2026, representing solid off-exchange allocation capital. But compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's institutional buying strength is weaker, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is under pressure, and the sustainability of institutional capital relay still needs to be observed.
The third type is short-term retail and leveraged traders. Seeing the huge short-term gains, many speculative funds rushed in following the trend. This type of capital is strongly sentiment-driven; once the market fluctuates, profit-taking will quickly exit.
Now, the upward momentum brought by shorts has been mostly consumed. Whether the market can stabilize going forward mainly depends on whether ETF buying can continue to enter and absorb the profit-taking pressure on the market.
If institutional inflows slow down, combined with high leveraged positions on the market, Ethereum's volatility will be further amplified, and the risk of a pullback will significantly increase. #ZEC hits a new all-time high on the site, privacy assets revalued
$ZEC is really strong this round.
It surged to $859 at one point, directly breaking the historical high, then fell back to around $800.
On the surface, it looks like a price increase, but behind it is the market starting to reprice privacy assets.
On one side, Grayscale is pushing the Zcash Trust to convert into a spot ETF; on the other, Ironwood is upgrading to enhance privacy and supply verifiability, plus the expansion of mining infrastructure.
With these three stories combined, capital naturally starts to refocus on ZEC.
But I’m actually reluctant to directly say "the privacy sector is taking off" right now.
Because ETF expectations are positive, but the expectations themselves might become the biggest overextension.
After $859, what really matters is not whether it can continue to surge, but whether capital is still willing to buy after a pullback.
If ZEC can absorb profit-taking at high levels while ETF expectations continue to advance, then this might not be simple speculation but a valuation restructuring of privacy assets.
But for now, it seems the story is still there, but the capital might already be gone.
Today the price has already fallen below $800, and it may continue to drop further; this position should be good for shorts! TRUMP dropped 9%, but the "scam" is not about the old coin
At 3:17 on August 23, I checked Eric Trump's original post: he denied "issuing a new coin," not declaring the old $TRUMP a scam.
OKX spot from 04:00 to 13:00 fell from 2.487 to 2.263, -9.01%. Close in time does not mean the same subject.
The leak did not provide a ticker, contract address, or issuer. If an address can be provided for verification, then we can talk about a new coin; otherwise, it remains a rumor.
Would you factor the refutation into the valuation of the old TRUMP? What evidence would make you change your judgment?
Data: Eric Trump X, OKX spot hourly K, 13:00.
Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion.
#OKXPlanet #TRUMP Privacy my ass, does the US tell you to disclose or not?
Although your words are blunt, they do hit the nail on the head—privacy coins are inherently opposed to the US regulatory push for transparency.
But Zcash can still survive because its privacy is optional—you can hide if you want, disclose if you want, institutions only use transparent addresses for custody, and audits can be done anytime.
That's why Grayscale dares to repeatedly apply for a Zcash ETF, and the SEC hasn't outright rejected it. Monero is the real "privacy my ass"—the entire chain is private by default, custodians can't even audit, so there's no chance for an ETF.
Zcash's privacy is for users, not for institutions to hide behind. If the US wants to investigate, it can be transparently shown to them. 🤡
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 $MINIMAX $ZHIPU
MINIMAX is about to release its 2026 mid-year report. Observing the current K-line pattern, the stock price is expected to reach a resistance level—the previous high of 400 HKD. It is recommended that everyone consider the financial report before making decisions, but I myself can't wait to enter with a light position, after all, I am just an ordinary college student, and even if I lose money, it will be a small amount 😁
Here is a breakdown of the valuation logic for MiniMax's two main businesses:
1. Consumer side (Talkie + Conch AI)
Benchmarking overseas AI consumer applications, looking at ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue), assigning a medium PS multiple.
Advantages: provides cash flow; Disadvantages: fierce competition, visible ceiling, valuation is destined not to be too high.
2. Business side API open platform
Benchmarking Zhipu, Anthropic, the model API business can enjoy a higher valuation.
The business side is the biggest source of valuation elasticity for MiniMax: if the business side proportion continues to increase, the market is willing to give a higher valuation; if it remains highly dependent on the consumer side, the valuation will be suppressed.
The financial report needs to verify the following:
1. Latest ARR figure, the company aims to reach 1 billion USD by year-end;
2. Revenue structure: whether the proportion of business side API revenue has increased, which is a key factor affecting valuation;
3. Changes in gross margin, whether the loss rate has narrowed;
4. Payment and retention data for Talkie and Conch; M3 model commercialization guidance
Personal opinion, combined with AI analysis, if you have good ideas please share 😊Goldman Sachs is buying villas by the sea in reverse. They have started hyping Korean stocks again, $SKHYNIX.
MXAPJ rose another 1%, MSCI adjusted $42 billion in passive flows: Goldman Sachs Asia-Pacific Weekly Report
Foreign capital is selling, but the index is rising——
Goldman Sachs released its Asia-Pacific weekly market outlook on August 22: Despite foreign capital resuming sales, the Hong Kong and China offshore markets rebounded and Asian currencies strengthened. The MSCI Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) index rose another 1%; amid rising oil prices, tech exports remain resilient.
Foreign capital flows: South Korea is the hardest hit by sell-offs
Emerging Asia (excluding China) saw a net foreign capital outflow of $1.5 billion, with South Korea dragging the most with a $1.6 billion net outflow.
Hedge funds: After record net sales in July, Asia continued marginal net selling in August but at a slower pace—Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan had the largest net sales, while China saw net buying. Mutual funds (July): increased holdings in South Korea, reduced in Taiwan and China.
The tension in this weekly report lies in the divergence of "foreign capital selling, index rising"—South Korea was sold off by $1.6 billion yet led the region's gains, relying on a rebound in chip exports and currency strength; China offshore +3% benefited from southbound funds and valuation recovery. The $42 billion MSCI passive flows (inflows to Japan, India, Taiwan; outflow from South Korea) will be realized on August 31—the battle between active and passive funds is the main theme for the Asia-Pacific market before month-end. Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation on South Korea, betting that the chip cycle plus currency appreciation story is not over yet. #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 $ZRO surged 50% weekly, showing strong event-driven sentiment premium, but the failure of the Fee Switch to pass three times resulted in no direct revenue capture, creating intense competition with the year-end Zero L1 mainnet Gas token narrative.
On the chart, there is dense selling pressure between 1.16-1.18 above, and a short-term bullish defense line formed at 0.95-0.96 below. Event-driven factors have caused chips to concentrate short-term in high-risk appetite funds, but inflation and insufficient ecological asset accumulation limit the continuity of position increases.
Among the driving factors, the $112.7 million buyback plan's bottoming effect ranks first in boosting short-term sentiment. Institutional support from a16z and Citadel has intensified expectations for the Zero L1 mainnet, while the Fee Switch's failure to pass, which suppresses the token's fundamentals, is temporarily marginalized by the market.
In the bullish scenario, if bulls complete turnover above the 0.95-0.96 support and break through the 1.18 resistance with volume, funds will continue to play on the mainnet launch benefits. This scenario requires monitoring market risk appetite improvement and mainnet progress; failure to break 1.18 resistance invalidates the scenario.
In the bearish scenario, if the liquidation risk from losing 12 partners and over $15 billion in assets this year is repriced, the price will break below the 0.95 support. Triggering this scenario requires observing the selling pressure from profit-taking; if a quick rebound occurs above 0.95, the bearish scenario is invalidated.
The trust shadow cast by the Lazarus attack discounts ecological premium, and excessive fund concentration on unrealized expectations easily triggers forced liquidation from leveraged chasing. Once the $112.7 million buyback is completed and if the mainnet launch is delayed, positions will face a rapid fundamental revaluation with no revenue capture.
The key variables to watch in the next 7 days are the turnover rate at the 1.16-1.18 resistance and the strength of bullish defense at the 0.95 support.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？I find this market movement quite interesting. BTC has indeed surged this week, jumping directly from 64,000 to nearly 80,000, but it clearly got stuck at the 80,000 mark and is now hovering around 77,000.
Here’s a brief summary of my view:
I think the main reason is improved macro liquidity, with US Treasury yields declining, plus Trump signaling support for crypto, which has clarified regulatory expectations. But the most direct driver is actually a "short squeeze"—a large number of shorts had accumulated earlier, and as the price rose, shorts were forced to cover by buying, which trampled the price upward.
The key is whether ETF funds can continue to take over. This week, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of over 1 billion USD, indicating institutions are putting real money in, which is a good sign. But if the short squeeze ends and no new funds enter, a pullback is very likely.
Trading suggestions:
- BTC: Don’t blindly chase the highs now; there is strong resistance at 80,000. I think it’s better to wait and see. If it pulls back to the 74,000–75,000 support range, consider lightly buying in; if it breaks and holds above 80,000 with volume, then consider following up.
- ETH: Follow BTC’s lead. It’s currently above 2,400 USD. If BTC stabilizes, ETH may have more room to catch up. Keep an eye on support around 2,350.
In short, the battle between bulls and bears is intense right now. Manage your position size carefully and avoid leverage. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $ZRO has risen quite a bit today. However, I don't think it can hold such high prices as it is now. There are probably two reasons. On one hand, the project itself has already been abandoned by many teams; On the other hand, the coin's data does not support its continued rise. If someone considers it the light of the bear market just because of its current rise, I think that's a bit too arbitrary. It's hard for this coin to sustain its current upward trend. —————————————————— This coin is a cross-chain project. In the previous KelpDAO hacking incident, it exposed many issues. Later, because they neither took responsibility when problems arose nor thought about solving them, and kept shifting blame, many teams abandoned them. So the project itself no longer holds that much value. This is one of the reasons I believe it cannot sustain the current surge rate. —————————————————— Let's take another look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract long-short ratio continuously decreases during its rising phase, while the corresponding contract open interest keeps increasing. This shows that when it rises, a lot of bears come in. Let's look at the data from a longer period. It can be seen that its current contract long-short ratio has dropped to the level of July 28, and the contract open interest has surpassed that level of July 28. If we look at the candlestick on July 28, we can see that it was the peak of the previous rebound#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
Is 149 HKD expensive after the drop? Market page (09992.HK): PE (TTM) about 13x, PB 7.47x, market cap 198.4 billion. Compared to the historical 30x PE, the bubble has basically been squeezed out, returning from growth premium to value range, valuation is quite conservative. A 13x PE for a company still growing revenue by 20% is indeed not expensive.
Revenue +23.8%, net profit +9.5% in the first half of the year, 13x PE corresponds to about 10% profit growth, not expensive; but with a high base, growth may be lower next year, bears say 13x is not cheap either. The tug-of-war itself means range oscillation, one-sided bets are risky. Cheap valuation and immediate stock price rise are two different things.
The average price from 20 institutions is 168.64, about 13% upside compared to the current price, mainstream expectations are for a "slight recovery" rather than a "reversal." 13x already prices in most pessimism, looking down at overseas inventory clearance, looking up at Star People taking over. Valuation is not extreme but needs performance confirmation to open up space.
If next year's profit growth can return to above 15%, 13x PE could recover to 18-20x, giving the stock 30-50% upside. Conversely, if overseas inventory and guidance continue to worsen, 13x could drop to 10x. Valuation is a result, not a cause; cheap now does not mean immediate rise, performance inflection point confirmation is needed.
$POPMART That load-bearing wall groans with the tension of steel rebar at 2 a.m.—this weekly ETH bullish candle isn’t built from bricks and stones, it’s fueled by liquidations. $110 million in forced liquidations over 24 hours sounds like muffled blasts at a demolition site; the dust hasn’t settled yet, and the $697M ETF pump truck is already in place, pouring high-grade concrete into the 2026 foundation.
You have to understand the dual geology of this construction site. What is short covering? It’s removing temporary counter-pressure piles, an elastic release that can’t support a permanent structure. The continuous inflow of spot ETFs, however, is like a static pile driver inching the load down to the bearing layer. That "nearly 30% weekly gain" looks to me like the sway of a tower crane’s jib—scary to watch, but the tension in the steel cables all hinges on the "funding rate" pin. The pile cap hasn’t cured yet; high leverage is like premature formwork removal. When the rainy season comes, no matter how polished the surface looks, cracks will appear.
I’ve drawn too many "skyscraper illusions" on blueprints. The whitepaper is a concept drawing, locked tokens are the reflective curtain wall, but the real structural safety lies in the "concrete mix ratio" of on-chain addresses—the influx of new addresses is the aggregate, long-term holders are the cement slurry, and that $1.1 billion liquidation volume is just the bleed water layer squeezed out by over-vibration. The question now is: is that ETF pump truck laying the foundation slab, or did it just pour a raft foundation and leave? If demand dries up, the remaining high-leverage "cantilever slabs" will sway midair; a gust of wind will cause oscillations more honest than candlesticks.
As for linked assets like XMSFT, they’re just billboard ads on the construction fence—no matter how skyscraper-like the painting, they won’t pass final inspection. Yield strength of steel, weld inspection reports, static load tests of pile foundations—none of these can be faked by market sentiment. This 2500 axis on-chain is stuck right in the core zone of the structural transition layer, below which crouches the USDE Treasury liquidation channel underwritten by Cantor Fitzgerald. Whether this building can keep rising doesn’t depend on how fast the scaffolding goes up, but on when the "regulatory" geological survey report gets stamped.
When the construction log reaches the page "short-term liquidation density too high," a smart supervisor will crouch down to check crack widths instead of looking up to count floors. Those who rush to remove side forms before the concrete has fully set usually hear the sound of steel yielding on delivery day. #ETHTests2500 $BTC BTC has pulled back to 76515, a normal retracement after a sharp surge.
· This week, it violently surged over 20% from 63000, with shorts liquidated for 4.5 billion dollars in three days
· Spot ETF has had net inflows of about 1.9 billion dollars for 5 consecutive days, institutions are buying with real money
· Funding rates have fallen back, this round is driven by spot buying rather than new leverage—solid structure
· Whale signals are contradictory: Cardone Capital bought 350 coins, while another whale holds 2555 coins (~197 million dollars) on an exchange
80000 is strong resistance, 68000-69000 is the cost line.
Spot buying is continuing, but whales are also exiting—keep an eye on how 80000 behaves. $HYPE has hit new highs these days, reaching up to $82.43. But I think it's a bit late to discuss "why it’s rising" now. What’s really worth studying is: can Hyperliquid continue to make money? Because it has now formed a very interesting chain: More traders ↓ Larger perpetual contract trading volume ↓ Higher protocol revenue ↓ Revenue used to buy back HYPE ↓ Reduced circulating supply in the market ↓ HYPE valuation increases ↓ Higher valuation attracts more capital attention This is the real reason I focus on HYPE. And now it has another card: If US regulation really opens a compliance gateway → Hyperliquid’s user base and trading volume ceiling could further increase. But don’t forget the other side. Right after HYPE hit a new all-time high, there was already a large transfer of positions to exchanges. So the most dangerous move now is: "It’s at a new high, it must keep rising, just chase it." I would rather wait for it to prove itself: can $76–78 become support? If it holds, then breaking through $82 again, the next stage could see **$85, $90, or even $100**. If it doesn’t hold, it means the market needs to digest the profit-taking first. So for HYPE now, I wouldn’t simply classify it as a “shitcoin.” It’s more like it’s undergoing a market valuation test: Is it just sentiment pushing it to $82, or does the real income generated by Hyperliquid truly justify a higher HY valuation?99% of people misunderstand the meaning of value investing, foolishly thinking that buying something that looks pretty good and never selling it is value investing. The vast majority of people's understanding of value investing might be a mix of these three conditions: "the price is not low, although it looks promising, it requires imagination to support and realize it." This is not value investing; this is a huge gamble. Nowadays, information is not lacking, and identifying "a target that might have great potential" is not difficult, such as the current AI stocks, spcx, btc eth hype, etc. Left gold right cake. Recently, with the sudden surge in crypto and the cooling off of the US stock market, a friend jokingly discovered a pattern: you just need to buy when everyone else is mocking and it feels like a pile of crap, and buy whoever is being mocked or looks like a pile of crap. It's not a bad strategy. And why is the title called "The Best Strategy for Ordinary People"? Because ordinary people actually have an advantage compared to institutions. Even if they don't make money, even if they are chasing highs, clients are willing to chase the hottest things now, while institutions just want to sell their products, naturally buying whatever is hot, regardless of whether you are chasing highs or whether you make money. Left gold right cake. So the advantage of retail investors here is precisely: flexibility and tolerance. You can actively buy those "things that now seem to be very good in the long term, but the price is undervalued or even mocked." The above strategy might be a very good active strategy, but it requires very strong discipline and does not conflict with the previously mentioned mindless dollar-cost averaging. Mindless dollar-cost averaging, it