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Trump calls for rate cut to 1%, Fed raises rates unanimously September 16, two events on the same day. Trump posted on Truth Social: US interest rates "should be 1%, or even lower," because "the US has the best credit in the world." "Lower US rates, and quickly!" Hours later, the Federal Reserve FOMC unanimously voted 12-0 to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. The dot plot shows 16 officials expect at least one more hike before the end of 2026. The president wants rates cut to 1%. The central bank unanimously hikes. This is not a policy disagreement; this is a direct collision between the White House and the Fed. Trump’s calculation: the trade deficit narrative He ties interest rates to the trade deficit. The logic is: the US bears global trade costs and has a huge deficit, so it should enjoy the lowest financing costs. If trade with deficit countries stops, it would "save" $1.5 trillion annually. This narrative is politically effective but economically controversial. Yet it points to a clear demand: use political pressure to force the central bank to ease. How does the Fed respond? Waller: I don’t do forward guidance The new Fed Chair Waller’s press conference was packed with information. Inflation is "too high and too persistent," summer data failed trend tests. The PCE returning to the 2% target is pushed back to 2029. When asked about Trump’s call for rate cuts, Waller said: "I have nothing to say about discussions with the president. I’m not Wall Street’s market briefing. Part of the Fed’s independence is sticking to our roles." Translation: I’m not listening to you. But the real fireworks came later. A reporter asked: The market priced a 90% chance of a rate hike today; is this hike market-driven? Waller replied: "The Fed has enormous power; these are our decisions. Today is our own decision." He means: whether to hike or not, the market doesn’t decide, the president doesn’t decide. The Fed decides. This is the real macro variable for BTC Most people are still focused on the dot plot and CPI. But the market is already pricing another factor. At the start of the year, when Trump’s conflict with Powell escalated, the market first identified "Fed independence" as a core risk factor. Bitcoin no longer just reacts to Fed decisions themselves but also to whether the Fed has independent decision-making ability. There are two transmission channels: Liquidity channel: If the market believes political pressure will eventually force the Fed to cut rates, short-term yields fall, the dollar weakens, benefiting Bitcoin. Credibility channel: If the conflict is interpreted as the Fed yielding to politics, it triggers a credibility shock. Bitcoin may first fall with risk assets, then see narrative-driven demand due to concerns about the traditional monetary system’s credibility. Both channels operate simultaneously but in opposite directions. This is the source of volatility. After the rate hike, Bitcoin surged from 75,500 to 76,500, then gave back all gains and dipped to 75,000 during Waller’s speech, then rebounded 1.67% in 7 minutes to 76,300. It has dropped nearly 4% over the past 7 days. 75,000 is already the trigger priced in by policy expectations. Waller’s unanimous hike is not because the economy is overheating. It’s because he needs to prove the Fed is not controlled by the White House. And Bitcoin happens to be the biggest variable in this proof process. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点