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Tonight's FOMC meeting could be the most critical night for this round of crypto market decline. Right now, the market is almost entirely betting on a 25 basis point rate hike. But I actually think— Tonight's real big shock might not be a rate hike, but rather "no rate hike." It sounds a bit counterintuitive. Normally, a rate hike is bearish for crypto, and no rate hike is bullish. But if a rate hike has already become a widely agreed-upon market expectation, then this bearish factor might already be priced in. So if tonight there really is a 25 basis point hike, and $BTC holds up or even starts to rebound, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. What’s truly interesting is the other scenario: If the Fed suddenly doesn’t hike rates, will BTC definitely go up? I don’t think so. If a theoretically positive event happens but BTC still can’t rally, that actually indicates the crypto market’s weakness might be more severe than we imagine. Especially since CLARITY was just blocked earlier, the whole crypto market has already dropped once, and now the FOMC is about to take over, which perfectly tests whether this decline is purely panic from news or if the market itself is really starting to weaken. So tonight, I’m not going to guess what the Fed will do. I’m only watching how BTC responds. If there’s a rate hike and BTC doesn’t fall, that’s strength. If there’s no rate hike and BTC still doesn’t rise, that’s true weakness. The most important thing tonight might not be what answer the Fed gives, but how the crypto market moves after getting that answer. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #