BTC at $75,800, are you planning to go long or short?
First, look at the surface: bearish bombardment, but the price hasn't collapsed.
BTC dropped from 126,000 to 75,000, a 40% retracement, down 13% year-to-date. On September 15, a large bearish candle swallowed the rebound from previous days, breaking below 78,000. Today it oscillates narrowly between 75,400-76,100, RSI at 47 indicating neutral to slightly weak, direction undecided, tonight will reveal the outcome.
First thing: regulatory bill failed, but the real thunderstorm is tonight.
The CLARITY Act procedural vote in the Senate was 49-50, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, so it’s dead. The market waited 11 months, hoping it would break the deadlock, but got a cold shower instead. BTC quickly fell from the intraday high, with bulls liquidated for hundreds of millions.
This news is a "known bearish". The market has already dropped 40%, and the bill’s failure was partially priced in. The real big thunder is tonight’s FOMC.
Second thing: tonight’s rate hike probability is 87%-92.5%, the first since 2023.
The Fed is shifting from a rate cut cycle to a hike cycle, raising the target rate from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, core inflation remains above 2%, and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5%.
Borrowing costs are rising, bleeding risk assets.
The market has partially priced in the hike, but the dot plot and Powell’s tone are the real killers.
"Hike implemented but dovish" → short-term rebound; "Hike + more hawkish" → test lower support.
Third thing: technically, we’ve reached a point where a choice must be made.
Daily MACD is bearish, short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, but the Bollinger Bands touched the lower band and are attempting a rebound. The 75,000-75,400 zone is a recent low concentration area plus a psychological level, which has held for a day.
But don’t forget — 76,500-77,100 is short-term moving average resistance, and 78,000 is the weekly lifeline. If 78,000 can’t hold, it will test lower again.
Bull vs. bear showdown, judge for yourself.
On one side:
Long-term holders’ chips remain high, with concentrated holdings at 62k-65k and 83k-86k.
ETF cumulative net inflows exceed 55 billion, AUM about 100 billion.
MARA increased holdings by 1,292 BTC, about $98.6 million.
Post-halving supply rigidity, institutional channels remain.
On the other side:
CLARITY Act failed, short-term regulatory uncertainty.
Tonight’s rate hike probability over 87%, first since 2023.
Bullish leverage is high, liquidation risk amplified.
10-year Treasury yield over 5%, real rates capped.
Resistance above: 76,500-77,100 → 78,000-79,500
Support below: 75,400-75,000 → 73,200-74,000
Trading strategy
Base scenario (rate hike implemented, neutral to slightly hawkish):
Price may first dip to 75,400-75,000 then rebound. Light long positions near 75,500, stop loss below 74,800, target 76,800-77,200. Or wait 30-60 minutes after the decision to enter.
Bearish scenario (rate hike + more hawkish path):
After confirming break below 75,400, short on rebounds, target 73,500-74,000, stop loss above 76,200.
Bullish scenario (rate hike but dovish, or "sell the rumor, buy the fact"):
Hold above 76,800 with volume, light long chase, target 78,000-79,500, stop loss near 75,800.
Mid-to-long term, around 75k can be layered in, but if real rates continue rising, wait for a lower cost zone.
What you fear is the rate hike; institutions are waiting for opportunities after the hike.
After a 40% crash, the most expensive thing isn’t the chips, it’s patience.
Those who survive tonight are qualified to talk about bottom fishing.
If 78,000 can’t hold, don’t talk about a bull market. If 75,400 can’t hold, don’t talk about a rebound.
Tonight’s FOMC, are you going long, short, or sitting out to watch?
$BTC$ETH$SOL#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
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