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颜值糕(乞讨版)
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法国央行发布最新宏观预测,对调和消费者物价指数HICP做出重要调整 。2026年通胀下调至2.3%,6月旧预测为2.5%;但把2027年通胀由1.7%上调至1.9%,2028年小幅下调至1.6%,通胀回落节奏明显放缓。
数据背后出现结构性分化:短期通胀有所缓和,但中期价格粘性抬升,意味着通胀回归欧央行2%目标的道路会比此前预想更加曲折。能源、薪资传导是推高2027年通胀的主要因素,也给欧央行货币政策带来两难。
一边是法国财政赤字压力高企,政府需要财政紧缩;另一边中期通胀韧性抬头,限制欧央行降息空间。若欧元区通胀粘性持续,市场会下调降息预期,支撑欧元,同时欧债收益率存在上行压力,法国国债会承受更大压力。
跨市场视角,欧美货币政策节奏分化继续上演。美国市场定价9月加息概率升至90%,欧洲却面临“通胀下修但回落变慢”的局面,美债、欧债利差变化,会持续扰动外汇、黄金$XAU以及加密资产。
通胀预测修正提醒市场,不要简单押注单边降息叙事。中东地缘扰动油价,进一步放大欧洲通胀不确定性,宏观变量互相纠缠,交易层面需要警惕预期反复带来的盘面震荡。
BTC Trend Market Daily Report 2026.09.15
Market Analysis: The 1-hour candlestick surged to 79500 then pulled back, forming a bearish candlestick pattern of surge and retreat. MACD shows a bearish divergence at the top, red bars turning green, indicating short-term bullish momentum is weakening. The 4-hour level is in a correction phase after an uptrend, with price pulling back to around 78100; the previous low at 76300 is a key support. The daily level still maintains a major bullish structure but has entered a short-term consolidation and pullback phase; the weekly level maintains a long-term uptrend with the major bottom rising.
Intraday Contract Strategy: Mainly bearish
Resistance at 78600, 79500. Support at 77500, strong support at 76400.
Aggressive short: enter short position on rebound to 78600.
If price stabilizes at 77500 on pullback, light long positions can be tried.
Mid-to-Long Term Contract Strategy: Mainly buy on dips
The major weekly uptrend remains intact; this round is a pullback during the uptrend. Key support at 76000, strong resistance at 82200.
Pullback near 76000 is the mid-to-long term long position entry zone, target 82200; if price breaks below 75800 effectively, the mid-to-long term bullish logic is paused.
Mid-to-Long Term View: The major bull market structure is not broken. Short term is disturbed by Fed rate decision expectations, entering a consolidation phase between 76000-82200, awaiting the rate decision to choose direction.
Strictly control position size, enforce stop losses, do not hold losing positions, do not add to losing positions.
Personal advice, for reference only, profit and loss at your own risk #本周FOMC揭晓,加息能否落地? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
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