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外围什么味儿 美股劳动节休市一天,期货也没啥大动静。A 股倒是「夯爆了」,创业板指蹿了 3.41%,深成指涨 1.91%,上证装死只涨 0.07%,分化得离谱。算力硬件板块全线暴动,但跟币圈没啥直接关系。 宏观这边一堆乱七八糟的。8 月非农 16.2 万远超预期,瑞银直接喊 9 月和 12 月各加 25 个基点,加息概率从 35% 飙到 66%。中东美伊互袭油轮,沙特阿美设施也挨了打,霍尔木兹海峡通航量降到 5 月以来最低。加拿大对 200 亿美元美国商品加 15%-50% 反制关税正式生效,特朗普又威胁 2027 年把对加汽车关税提到 50%。全球 risk-off 的味儿越来越浓。 $ETH 顺手看一眼 $ETH 今天倒是涨了 0.6%,从 2440 弹回 2499,7 日区间 2368-2547。费率 0.0052% 跟 $BTC 差不多,OI 也是进进出出没个方向。2547 的波段高点压着,2440 是短期底,反弹看着像挣扎不像反转。想做 $ETH 的话等 2530-2540 空一把也行,止损 2560,目标 2440,但 $BTC 方向更清楚,别舍近求远。
colword.std
colword.std
Main focus $BTC | Strategy: Short, initial quick exit operation, $BTC slid from 82283 to 78831, a continuous "opossum-back" style slow decline, bulls can't even organize a decent rebound. Short entry at 79200-79500 limit sell, stop loss at 80600, targets at 77600 and 76927. Leverage 2-3x, position size 30%. Funds are fleeing this round, fees remain lukewarm, those chasing longs probably need some "brain noise reduction". What lines is $BTC drawing this week? Looking at the candlesticks, after surging to 82283 on 9/3, it started drawing a descending channel, with MA3 and MA5 bearish alignment pressing the price down, daily highs getting lower. The 9/6 high at 80536 forms a descending resistance line acting as a short-term ceiling, touching it gets pushed back. The 9/8 dip to 77600 is a swing low, 9/9 small volume bullish candle gave a brief breather, but volume was only 290,000 trades, usually two to three million, this shrinkage shows no buying interest. Two rebound paths are drawn on the chart: T1 near 80557, T2 near 81460, the space between the channel upper boundary and previous high. But to rebound, it must first break the descending resistance line, which hasn't even been touched yet. Below, 76927 is the 7-day low iron bottom; if truly broken, look to 75389.

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