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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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0.72美元的PONS,你敢抄底吗? 先看表面:利好堆成山,价格却跌了。 9月4日Uniswap Labs宣布买入PONS,24小时暴涨41.9%冲到0.73;9月5日冲上0.97历史新高;Binance、OK、Hyperliquid接连上线永续合约。然后呢?三天跌回0.72。 抛物线冲顶后高位放量回落,利好出尽,还是上涨中继? 第一件事:Uniswap Labs买了,但你被"买新闻、卖事实"割了。 9月初Uniswap Labs宣布购入PONS,项目方称此举旨在实现"长期对齐"。消息一出,24小时暴涨41.9%。 听着很爽?但你仔细想——Uniswap Labs自己也在Robinhood Chain上推了竞品Pools.trade。一边做竞品,一边买你的币,这叫"战略投资"还是"了解对手"? 第二件事:日费用595万,销毁29%,但你忽略了最致命的问题。 9月1日PONS单日费用冲到595万美金,超越Robinhood Chain自身收入。上线两个月累计手续费突破5600万美金。80%协议收入用于回购销毁,已销毁约29%总供应量。 平台每天在赚钱,每天都在买回并销毁PONS 供应在缩,需求在增,理论上是通缩飞轮 但问题是:这个飞轮完全依赖meme热度 一旦发射热度降温,回购力度会立刻断崖。 第三件事:合约上线潮来了,但这是双刃剑。 Binance 9月6日上线PONSUSDT永续合约,最高20倍杠杆;OK 9月5日上线;Hyperliquid 8月31日已上线。 合约上线=流动性暴增=更多人能玩=波动更大。 多空大战已经打响。0.65是空头的成本线,0.8-0.9是多头的套牢区。谁赢,方向就出来了。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: Uniswap Labs买入+Wintermute做市,顶级机构背书 日费用595万,累计5600万,销毁29%供应 Binance、OKX、Hyperliquid全上了合约 鲸鱼450万美金买入PONS 一边是: 三天从0.97回撤26%,高位套牢盘沉重 飞轮依赖meme热度,护城河有限 合约上线=做空工具就位,空头已在0.65布重兵 如果BTC不稳,高Beta山寨首当其冲 上方阻力:0.80-0.85 → 0.90-0.97(前高套牢区) 下方支撑:0.67-0.65(空头成本区)→ 0.55-0.52 操作策略 短线选手: 等回踩0.67-0.65出现止跌K线再轻仓试多,止损0.62,第一目标0.80-0.82,第二目标0.90。 波段玩家: 反弹到0.80-0.85若出现滞涨信号,考虑减仓或短空,目标回看0.70-0.67。 观望派: 0.65-0.80区间震荡时减少操作,等方向选择。重点盯平台日费用、销毁进度和BTC走势。 PONS现在是"飞轮在转,但价格已透支预期"—— 99%的人看到"Uniswap买了"就冲进去,结果被挂在了0.9的山顶。 0.65守住的那一天,你会发现: 原来不是PONS不行,是你每次都等涨起来才问能不能追。 你的PONS成本是多少? 0.72这个位置,你敢抄底吗? $PONS $ARB $UNI
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
ZEC, $1200. A month ago, it was still hovering around $500. Today, it has successively overtaken DOGE and HYPE, pushing its market cap into the ninth position among crypto assets. Market cap once surpassed $21.1 billion. And the 2024 low — $16. The two assets it trampled underfoot just happen to represent the two hottest narratives of the past few years: • DOGE → Meme • HYPE → Perp DEX / On-chain derivatives Squeezed in between them is a veteran privacy coin launched in 2016, dormant for nine years. What does this mean? 1️⃣ The market is shifting from "speculating on air" to "store of value" ETFs have opened the door to compliant capital. Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) launched on August 25, with net inflows exceeding $34 million within two weeks, and a single-day high of $12.6 million. ZEC rose more than 30% during the same period. Institutions are not here to speculate. Institutions are here to allocate. 2️⃣ Privacy is being repriced in the AI era Grayscale's research framework directly positions Zcash as a "store of value asset beyond BTC." AI has made on-chain surveillance cheap and normalized. Your demand for "financial privacy" is shifting from "optional" to "essential." 3️⃣ Reflexivity is in play About 30% of ZEC's total supply is stored in shielded pools — a figure that was only 8% a few years ago. Price rise → increased dollar value in shielded pools → expanded privacy set → more capital inflows. This is not hype. This is a flywheel. ⚠️ But be sober: ZEC is currently in a price discovery phase. 24-hour total market liquidations are about $54.3 million, with $48.91 million from shorts. Some are making huge profits, others are suffering big losses. Zcash's anonymity is a sin in the eyes of compliant capital — not all institutions dare to touch it. Once macro turns hawkish and BTC loses key support, high-beta assets like ZEC will experience much harsher pullbacks than BTC. This is not a FOMO moment of "too late to get in." This is a choice of "are you willing to take risks on a non-consensus judgment?" Nine years. ZEC from $16 to $1200. The market took nine years to start rereading Zcash's whitepaper. And most people's reaction is always to ask only after it has risen to $1200 — "Is it still worth buying?" $ZEC $BTC $ZEN #ZEC升至加密货币市值前十

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