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#闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorization SanDisk's earnings report this time was strong, but the stock price still fell—a classic case of "earnings won, expectations didn't."
The latest quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, with adjusted EPS of $39.25, both significantly exceeding market expectations; However, although the guidance for the next quarter is also decent, it has not pushed market imagination up further. The result is: the performance paid off, and the funds started moving ahead of the curve.
Now, when I watch SanDisk, I no longer just ask "Is it good?" but ask two questions:
Will next quarter's guidance continue to exceed expectations?
Is the demand for AI data center storage still accelerating?
During the high-expectations phase, a strong earnings report does not necessarily mean a strong stock price.
Do you think this is the positive news being realized, or is there a second rally to come?
#闪迪 $SNDK #财报分析 #AI存储Empty, empty
After SanDisk's financial report was released yesterday! Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, with EPS of $39.25, both exceeding expectations. Even more impressive, the board approved a new $14 billion buyback plan, bringing total authorizations to $15.5 billion!
However, the Q1 guidance median was 10.55 billion, slightly below the expected 10.8 billion, and fell as much as 8% in after-hours trading. Demand for AI storage surged, with data center business up 437% year-on-year, but consumer business weakened. Expectations are too high, guidance is insufficient: stock prices have risen nearly 490% this year, and the market has overhyped expectations. The median Q1 revenue guidance was 10.55 billion, below the expected 10.8 billion, which became the trigger for profit-taking.
· Consumer business underperformed: Consumer business revenue was only 556 million yuan, down 32% year-on-year, far below expectations.
· Gross margin peaks signal: Q4 gross margin reached a record 84.6%, but next quarter's guidance is 83%-85%, suggesting profit improvement is entering a phase of high level consolidation. Brothers, short him #SanDisk's earnings both beat expectations, adding $14 billion in buyback authorization 看懂财报背后的预期差，闪迪这波高空机会就抓得住
回看昨晚的财报分析，其实闪迪的做空机会早就摆在台面上。
前面几只财报股的走势已经给出示范，$SNDK 这波，可以说是机会送上门。
昨天我在 1420 美元附近布局空单，10 倍杠杆，今天于 1270 美元全部平仓，到手盈利 4450U，回报率 104%。
这笔交易，重点不在于收益多少，而是把盘前的判断实实在在落地到仓位上。闪迪真正的隐患，并不是财报本身拉胯，而是业绩必须强到远超所有人的期待，股价才能继续往上走。
这次财报账面数据其实相当亮眼。
季度营收 89.7 亿美元，高于预期 84.8 亿美元；调整后 EPS 39.25 美元，同样跑赢预期 34.96 美元，数据中心业务收入大涨 103%，毛利率高达 84.6%。
即便数据好看，盘后股价依旧一度大跌超 12%。
根源就在于下一季业绩指引。
公司给出预期营收 103‑108 亿美元，EPS 44‑46 美元。单看数值依旧很强，但已经很难再突破市场被拉高的心理期待。这只标的年内涨幅接近 470%，市场想要的已经不只是增长，而是不断超出想象的惊喜。
当指引仅仅符合预期，资金就会选择落袋为安，做空逻辑就此成立。再对照 SpaceX、AMD 的前车之鉴，其实方向已经很清晰。
我做的就是预期差交易：
财报出来之前股价已经提前冲高，市场乐观情绪被拉到高位，相比继续向上超预期，向下回调的风险要大得多。
不少散户看见财报好看，就理所当然觉得股价该涨。但股价炒的不只是已经公布的成绩，更要看实际结果和市场提前脑补的期待之间，存在多大差距。
AMD 是这样，SpaceX 是这样，闪迪同样也是。
选择在 1270 美元全部离场，是因为这一轮财报带来的预期差行情已经走完。再继续拿，逻辑就变成博弈存储周期反转，那就是另一笔完全不同的交易。
看对行情不难，把观点写出来也不难。难的是行情火热的时候敢于下手，利润到位之后愿意按计划收手。
这一次判断正确，不代表下一次也能如愿。单次盈利只说明这一轮逻辑成立，做好止损、恪守止盈纪律，才能够长久留在市场。
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
After watching this intensive earnings season, my biggest impression is: good performance doesn't mean the market is willing to buy in.
SpaceX delivered its first financial report since going public, with revenue surging year-on-year and losses narrowing. The operating figures have actually exceeded market expectations. But two hidden dangers are looming: capital expenditure in AI has surged, and with the August 6 restricted stock unlocking window approaching, stock prices are directly suppressed. The arrival of positive news has instead turned into a window for capital to flee.
It's not just SpaceX; this group of companies has experienced a completely differentiated market.
AMD and SanDisk's revenue and EPS both exceeded expectations, but the market did not celebrate blindly; everyone was watching the guidance and doubting whether the high valuations could hold up; Palantir, driven by high revenue growth + an upward revision of its full-year guidance, has been wildly pursued by capital; Circle is betting on new application scenarios for the Arc mainnet and USDC, betting on the growth story of stablecoin infrastructure going forward.
An interesting phenomenon: when you look at various financial reports, the fundamentals are generally not bad, but the market feedback varies greatly.
I keep asking myself: What exactly is the market buying at this stage?
Is it the high growth that has already been realized, or the willingness to continue offering premiums, and the ongoing upward expectations of the game that haven't materialized yet?
Now is not just about "how much money you made," but whether the market is willing to continue betting on your future story. Pressure to unlock the market, capital investment, and subsequent earnings guidance—each variable could reshape the market at any moment.
The divergence in the market is precisely hidden here.看来短期内 Pre-IPO Perpetual (IPOP) 是存在先发优势的。
tradexyz 作为 HIP-3 的绝对龙头，迟了 paragon 一天上 $UNITREE IPOP。虽然 xyz 增速很强，但成交量和 OI 都无法在接近一天内赶超 para。
我以为 xyz 会在几个小时内就实现反超，看来市场是非常看中“先机”的。如果故事的开端是 xyz 先于 para 上，结局可想而知。
HIP-3 立足于 Hyperliquid 之上，已经具备一定的品牌效应。从 para 最近的动作看，在 xyz 覆盖圈之外采取激进策略，是可以具备经济效益的。
$HYPE #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
Several leading companies delivered their results this earnings season, with overall performance decent, but the market trend has become completely fragmented, and the logic of capital trade-offs is worth careful consideration.
Let's start with the focus of SpaceX. Its first financial report after going public actually had a solid foundation: revenue surged year-on-year, losses narrowed, and core operating data outperformed earlier market expectations. The two major hidden dangers dragging down the stock price are particularly striking: first, the expansion of the AI business brings massive capital expenditures, continuously eroding profits; Second, the August 6 unlocking window for restricted shares is about to arrive, putting pressure on expectations and dampening capital going long. After the earnings report was released, the market turned negative in after-hours trading, with the token XSPCX dropping nearly 4% intraday.
Companies that released financial reports during the same cycle showed a huge gap in their performance. AMD and SanDisk's revenue and earnings per share both exceeded expectations, but the market did not blindly chase the rally. Funds are concerned whether future guidance can support current high valuations, and the market is very cautious; Palantir has shown strong momentum, with high revenue growth combined with full-year performance guidance, directly attracting a large amount of capital to chase the market; Circle has opened a new track to bet on the Arc mainnet and USDC deployment scenarios, fully expanding the growth ceiling of stablecoin infrastructure.
Each company has its own strengths, but their stock prices have performed vastly differently. The current market divisions are already on the surface: will funds anchor on the high growth already realized, or will they be willing to pay for the continued upward expectations for the future?
In the short term, pressure from unlocking restrictions and capital expenditures will continue to limit SpaceX's rebound potential; Stocks that raise their full-year guidance and have maximized growth certainty are more likely to attract capital. In the upcoming market, the strength of expectations may become the core factor determining the divergence of the trend.On the surface, SanDisk's financial report looks impressive, with all core indicators exceeding market expectations, yet the stock price responded with a sharp drop. The real contradiction is that market appetite has been completely inflated. $BTC $ETH $BICO
Previously, the stock price had already surged several times, fully priced in the benefits of AI storage ahead of schedule. The capital market is buying the surprises of the future, and the new quarter's performance guidance only met targets without further exceeding expectations, giving profit-making funds an excuse to exit. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new buyback authorizations #Circle财报后押注Arc Can USDC experience new growth?
Looking at AMD and SpaceX, both have experienced impressive earnings but sharp stock price drops. At high levels, meeting earnings targets does not necessarily mean good news; on the contrary, it can easily become a key point for major players to cash out their shares, presenting short-term short selling opportunities. Don't blindly go long just because you see good data. #ADP就业降温, the Fed's policy divergence has intensified The latest publicly released declassified memo shows that after Trump fired Comey in 2017, the FBI launched an investigation into whether he was influenced by Russia. Later, Special Counsel Mueller did not press charges against Trump, but the document brought the political and legal controversies back to the forefront.
The significance of such news for the market lies not in the conclusion itself, but in how it amplifies uncertainty again. When political controversies heat up, the dollar, US Treasuries, gold, and BTC are often traded first.
Do you think this kind of news is more like political noise in the end, or a catalyst for market fluctuations?
#特朗普 #美国政治 #宏观 $BTC $XAU Hyperliquid's era of major infrastructure
HIP-4 is laying the groundwork, while HyperCore and HIP-3 are entering a refined iteration phase.
This update lifts the HIP-3 rate limit. Previously, a unified rate multiple was used globally, but now HIP-3 DEXs are allowed to finely set rate multiples for individual assets (within a 0.1–3 continuous range).
HIP-3 DEXs can operate with greater precision. Asset A takes more points, Asset B less points, and reasonably arranges its operational strategy according to market demand.
$HYPE Crude Oil $CL Entering the News Market: The biggest fear is not misreading, but chasing the first stock.
The most noteworthy thing about crude oil today is not whether a single news item is bullish or bearish, but rather that two completely opposite narratives are trading simultaneously.
On one hand, both the U.S. and Iran are signaling that they are close to reaching an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are said to have completed the draft agreement and are just waiting for final approval; If expectations for shipping recovery continue to rise, the previously accumulated geopolitical risk premiums may be further reduced.
On the other hand, there are still clear differences in the negotiations. The US opposes allowing Iran to control the shipping routes and charge fees, while Iran insists on retaining some control; Meanwhile, the Houthis claim to attack Saudi oil tankers show that the real transport risks have not disappeared just because the words "agreement is close."
Brent is currently around $80 per barrel. This position feels more like an emotional watershed to me than an entry point where you can directly chase orders.
I observe two types of reactions:
If negative news continues but oil prices remain unmoved and even quickly reclaim around $80, it indicates that the agreement may have priced in early, and the odds for bears to continue chasing prices are starting to decline.
If new attacks and tough statements continue to emerge but oil prices remain unstrengthened, it indicates that the market believes supply will gradually recover and that geopolitical premiums are still being sold off.
In the news market, headlines usually only determine the first candlestick. Whether the subsequent price can sustain will reflect the true capital choices.
So today, I won't immediately chase short positions just because the agreement is near, nor will I go long just because the 'tanker is attacked.' A more reasonable approach is to wait for news to come out and see if the price breaks through, whether trading volume follows, and whether the breakout can be sustained.
If the news is big but the price doesn't react, this "non-response" itself is often more valuable than the news.
Crude oil is now trading not to determine the answer, but for the dynamic changes between the probability of successful negotiations, the speed of shipping recovery, and the risk of further escalation of conflict.
My plan is simple: don't guess the outcome, just trade the market's true reaction to the outcome.
#伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地 PLTR Sweeps Short Markets Overnight—Has the True Winner of AI Applications Emerged?
Palantir ($PLTR) surged 30% overnight, with short positions losing over $3 billion.
But behind this short squeeze, what truly repriced the market is not just the stock price, but a larger trend:
AI is beginning to move from a "model race" into the "application implementation era."
Past market debates:
Which large model is stronger?
OpenAI？
Anthropic？
Google?
But Palantir proved one thing:
The most profitable position may not be model building, but actually making models enter the workflows of enterprises and governments.
Core advantages of Palantir:
AIP: Connecting different AI models to help enterprises build their own AI applications. Foundry: Integrating enterprise data to help AI understand real business operations
Ontology: Turns data, permissions, and processes into executable systems
Apollo: Enables AI systems to run continuously in cloud, on-premises, and edge environments
In short:
Large models are responsible for "thinking."
Palantir is responsible for letting AI "get the work done."
This is why models like OpenAI and Anthropic are becoming increasingly powerful, which may actually expand Palantir's value.
Because what companies truly need is:
Can AI help me manage the supply chain?
Can production be optimized?
Can the mission be carried out safely?
And Palantir is occupying this "last mile."
Earnings directly ignite the market:
Q2 revenue: $1.935 billion, up 93% year-on-year
U.S. business revenue: up 149%
Adjusted operating margin: 62%
Free cash flow margin: 63%
More importantly:
The company raises its full-year guidance:
By 2026, revenue is expected to exceed $8.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of about 82%.
AI demand has moved from proof of concept to real orders.
The worst off are the bears
Before the earnings report, short sellers had earned about $2.7 billion at one point this year.
One day later:
All profits were wiped out.
Turned to a loss of $3 billion.
This is a typical example:
Fundamental reversal + high short positions = short squeeze.
But risks must also be recognized
PLTR is still highly valued, far above traditional software companies.
The market is not just giving it a standard SaaS valuation, but rather:
Valuation of "Enterprise Operating Systems in the AI Era."
If growth slows in the future, volatility will remain very high.
U.S. Stock Investment Network believes that AI's greatest opportunity may not be who has the strongest model, but who can connect the model into the real world.
What Palantir is competing for may be the "application gateway" of the AI era.
$SNOW $LMT $RTX $MSFT $AMZN #美股#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
After reading Circle's earnings report, let's talk about whether betting on Arc can really revive USDC.
I just finished reading Circle's latest Q2 financial report, and I feel quite conflicted. Let me share my thoughts with everyone.
Total revenue was $701 million, up 7% year-on-year, and profit also rose slightly by 8%. The fundamentals are relatively stable, but revenue did not meet previous market expectations and is not impressive. The most noteworthy data is USDC, whose average circulating supply rose 25% year-on-year, but at the end of the quarter, circulating supply dropped to $73.3 billion, down nearly 4.8% quarter-on-quarter. Clearly, USDC's recent growth has been sluggish, and the pace of growth has slowed.
However, Circle did not sit idly by; it released major news about Arc, which has now entered the private mainnet phase and is scheduled to open public mainnet on September 16. Major financial institutions like BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard have all joined as initial validators, making for a truly star-studded lineup.
Everyone is betting on one thing: can Arc connect stablecoin settlements, tokenized assets, and traditional institutional financial infrastructure, uncover new application scenarios for USDC, and revive growth.
But the market reaction was very realistic. After the earnings came out, CRCL surged before the market opened, but at the official opening, it plunged 10%, directly contradicting optimism. Many friends who are stuck are now caught in a dilemma, unsure whether to buy or sell.
On one hand, traditional giants collectively backed Arc, maximizing potential; On the other hand, USDC stock declined and earnings fell short of expectations, so short-term growth is unlikely to materialize.
I'm a bit unsure now. Do you think Arc's launch will really bring a new round of growth to USDC? For those stuck in CRCL, should you buy the dip or wait and see before exiting? #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
Circle财报看完，聊聊Arc到底能不能救USDC
刚仔细扒完Circle最新的二季度财报，心里挺矛盾的，来跟圈内兄弟们唠唠我的看法。
先说说明面的数据，营收7.01亿美金，同比涨了7%，利润端也稳步上涨，整体赚钱能力是稳住了。但是有个关键点我注意到了：USDC季度末流通量环比掉了快5个点，降到733亿。虽然年均流通量看着涨了25%，但短期资金流出是实打实的，看得出来稳定币这边增长明显乏力了，这也是财报出来盘面不买账的核心原因吧。
难怪CRCL盘前冲高，正式开盘直接跌下去一截，市场一点面子都不给，大家明显不满意现阶段的增长速度。
不过Circle这次押注的Arc项目，我反倒觉得是最大看点。现在已经进入私有主网阶段，9月中旬就要公测上线，背书阵容真的豪华，贝莱德、Visa、万事达这些传统金融巨头全都入局做验证节点。
如果Arc真的打通机构结算、代币化资产这套基础设施，等于直接给USDC撬开传统机构资金的大门，不再只靠加密圈内部流转，那USDC后续增量完全不用担心。但反过来想，愿景再好，落地之前全都是预期，机构合作能不能实打实转化成USDC的存量？现在谁也说不准。
一边是当下稳定币体量走弱的现实，一边是几个月后即将落地的机构级大招，多空分歧直接拉满。
想问问大家，你们觉得Arc能成为Circle的翻盘王牌吗？现阶段要不要提前布局相关标的？Key to Trading: 65,500-66,000, break through target 67,000-68,000. Key to Trading: 64,000-64,200, break below target 63,000-62,200. BTC rebounded from 62,200 to above 65,000, breaking through key resistance. The US and Iran each have their own story—Iran denies direct negotiations with the US, Trump says the outcome will be revealed in 48 hours. Federal Reserve Governors Tim Cook and Kashkari have both taken hawkish stances, and expectations for rate hikes could rebound at any time. Both bulls and bears are waiting—whoever breaks through first will get the shares. Bullish and bearish logic: (1) Trading volume increased 15% week-on-week, futures open interest rose, leveraged funds entered the market (2) Spot ETFs saw net inflows of over $200 million in two days, BlackRock bought 1,395 BTC in a single week (3) Number of holding addresses hit a record high, long-term holders continue to increase holdings Bearish reasons: (1) ETFs saw a net outflow of $61.53 million this week, Fidelity and Grayscale jointly sold (2) If the Fed resets rate hikes, Bitcoin is vulnerable to selling pressure (3) Iran publicly denies negotiating with the US, Trump says "the outcome will be revealed in 48 hours" Could be falsified at any moment—what should I do? Go long on breakout: Hold above 65,500-66,000 to chase long, stop loss at 64,800, target 67,000-68,000. Short on Break: Short if it falls below 64,000-64,200, set a stop loss at 64,800, target 63,000-62,200. Middle Zone: Hold steady between 64,200-65,500; wait for confirmation of direction before making a move. The US and Iran each have their own views, the Fed keeps hawkish, BlackRock FinancialThe current core underlying tone of the market
BTC held steady above the 64,000 mark with no volume, with no new off-exchange funds in the market. Overall, the pattern is typical of stock speculation and splitting to supplement the west.
Currently, capital is highly grouped around two major super themes: AI computing power and RWA (RWA) US Treasuries;
Established public chains continue to fluctuate in a mediocre state, while traditional MEME continues to lose capital; The vast majority of coins have no trend; only events, financial reports, and news drive pulse rallies, with the logic of track rise and fall completely disjointed.
1. The Fundamental Pillars of the Market Ballast (6 | Market Sentiment Base, Institutional Allocation Main Theme)
1. BTC (Bitcoin).
Core logic: cyclical bottom position + market-wide liquidity anchor
Relying on the four-year halving deflation cycle and the continued accumulation of funds in spot ETFs, the digital gold consensus remains solid, serving as the emotional bottom line and liquidity cornerstone for the entire crypto market.
This round broke through six times and held above 64,000, but the entire upward movement was low, supporting only the index without creating a rally. Existing funds continue to divert from BTC to highly elastic hotspot altcoins, lacking the ability to rally their own market.
Market rules: BTC doesn't fall deeply, and the theme remains a hot topic; BTC shows no volume increase, and the market is not in a bull market.
2. ETH (Ethereum).
Core logic: Foundational infrastructure of the ecosystem + deflationary mainstream with deflation as a safety net
Supports all global ecosystem needs for DeFi, LSDFi, Layer 2, RWA, and US Treasury tokenization. The pledge lock-up mechanism + EIP1559 burns continue to deflate, and fundamentals remain stable over the long term.
The current market position is passively following the rise and strong resistance to declines: the market is well-fed by hot stocks and lags behind in gains; When the market is weak, prioritize supporting and resisting declines, making it the top choice for institutional bottom positions and lack short-term explosive resilience.
3. BNB Binance platform coin
Core logic: Exchange ecosystem closed-loop + must-have risk avoidance in a bear market
Relying on Binance Exchange traffic closed loop, combined with fee deductions, Launchpad new launches, and quarterly buyback and burns, it provides a solid bottom line for essential demand.
BSC Chain continues to generate traffic from local dogs and new coins. When bear market funds are unwilling to chase high-priced themes, BNB prefers to hedge and hedge in a volatile market, making it a stable coin in a volatile market.
4. SOL Solana
Core logic: highly elastic hotspot parent chain + sentiment pioneer
With ultra-high TPS and extremely low transaction fees, it is currently the core incubation base for the three major hot topics of AI Agent, DePIN, and new memes.
The Firedancer node upgrade completely solves historical outage pain points, combined with future spot ETF narratives, enabling institutions to continue their base positions.
Market pattern: As the market warms up, SOL small-cap Memes are the first to explode, driving up SOL sentiment and acting as a barometer of market sentiment.
5. XRP Ripple
Core logic: Compliance event-driven swing mainstream
Focusing on cross-border payment compliance narratives, it relies on progress in lawsuits with the SEC and cooperation with banking institutions to achieve expected market momentum.
No long-term trending one-sided market, positive pulses and bearish pullbacks, purely event-driven swing trading stocks, suitable for short-term trading but not for holding.
6. TRX Tron
Core logic: stablecoin circulation for rigid demand + offshore capital hedge channel
Most of the online USDT on-chain transfers rely on the TRON ecosystem, offering low fees, fast transfers, and a wide audience.
It handles large amounts of RWA government bond circulation and cross-border offshore fund settlement needs, serving as the underlying carrier for hedging and high-frequency circulation of existing funds, with extremely stable trends and minimal volatility.准备以太开空，利空消息正在发酵，盘面空头力量占优。
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#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧
【ADP就业降温：降息预期升温，但科技股却涨不动】
昨晚公布的ADP就业数据爆冷：7月私营部门新增就业仅 4.4万人，远低于预期的 7.5万人，创近六个月新低。
数据一出，市场迅速反应：美元指数转跌，9月加息概率从 80% 回落至 56%，比特币短时上冲 64,500。
但注意一个细节：就业疲软，工资却在涨。
留岗者薪资增幅 4.4%，跳槽者薪资同比加速至 7.0%。这意味着企业招人少了，但抢人成本没降——通胀的“工资-物价螺旋”还没断。
表面上看，ADP数据是利好（降息预期升温），但美联储内部分歧在加深：部分官员倾向于尽早开启渐进式加息，最早可能在9月FOMC落地。就业疲软 + 加息预期同时存在，市场方向并不清晰。
最关键的是：今晚的反弹能不能持续，取决于周五非农数据。如果非农同样走弱，降息预期将巩固；如果非农意外坚挺，今天的乐观情绪可能被迅速修正。大家都在观望，资金不敢猛拉。
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？
【AMD财报：业绩超预期，股价却暴跌——市场预期被透支了】
AMD二季度财报其实很不错：
· 营收 115.4亿美元，同比增长 50%，创历史新高
· 调整后每股收益 1.66美元，同比增长 246%
· 数据中心业务营收 67亿美元，同比翻倍
但财报发布后，AMD盘后股价一度跌超 9%。
为什么？
1. 资本支出暴增：二季度资本支出达 8.08亿美元，几乎是市场预期的 三倍
2. 三季度指引不及最乐观预期：130亿美元的指引中值虽高于共识，但没达到部分激进投资者 140亿美元 以上的期待
3. 股价早已透支：今年以来AMD股价一度累计上涨超过 140%，市场已经把未来两年的增长预期都定价进去了
“好”已经被定价了，市场在等待的不是“好”，而是“比好更好”。
AMD这份财报对存储板块是间接利空——AI芯片龙头都带不动科技股继续冲，闪迪这种已经反弹了300多点的票，短期也差不多了。
【综合判断】
两个利空叠加：
1. ADP就业数据：短期利好（降息预期），但美联储内部分歧加大 + 周五非农不确定性，资金不敢追高
2. AMD财报：业绩超预期但股价暴跌，说明科技股估值已经透支，短期很难再往上冲
ETH现价 1,898，上方 1,927 压力明显，MA5（1,905）和 MA10（1,910）都在头顶压着。
【今晚计划】
方向看空，等反弹到 1,910-1,920 附近找机会开空。
· 开空位置：1,910-1,920 附近
· 止损：1,940（突破前高就走）
· 目标：1,870 → 1,850
ADP数据给了短期利好，但资金都在等周五非农，不敢真拉。反弹就是空的机会。
兄弟们，这波跟不跟？ 👇
$ETH When SK Hynix listed its ADR in the US, overseas institutions proposed an interesting trading strategy: go long on US ADRs and short on Korean domestic stocks.
Many people see it as a simple cross-market arbitrage, but if you think deeper, it actually reflects the long-term shift in global capital's positioning of South Korea's capital market.
It's not that Korean semiconductor companies lack technology. Samsung and SK Hynix possess strong capabilities in the memory chip sector and are indispensable parts of the AI industry chain. The fundamentals of the companies themselves have not disappeared, but the domestic Korean exchanges hosting these companies are passively weakening.
There are several layers of reality here.
First, the pricing power of core assets is gradually shifting to US stocks.
In the past, Samsung and SK Hynix mainly traded on the Seoul Exchange in South Korea. Now, giants are issuing large-scale US ADRs, and global large funds and pension funds are prioritizing trading certificates on Nasdaq.
Global funds no longer need to open accounts in the Korean market, face the Korean won exchange rate, or local trading rules.
Eventually, a phenomenon forms: US ADRs fluctuate first, which in turn pulls Korean domestic prices. The Korean domestic market is gradually becoming a "follower" rather than a pricing center.
Second, the Korean stock market has inherent structural flaws that are difficult to recover in the short term.
1. Highly deformed index structure. KOSPI stocks are nearly half weighted by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The fate of the entire market is almost tied to a semiconductor cycle. The storage sector is on the rise, with the index soaring; When the cycle turns, the whole market experiences intense volatility, and the market lacks enough sectors to diversify risk.
2. Long-standing "Korean discounts." Chaebols have complex cross-shareholding, insufficient protection for minority shareholders' rights, and weak willingness to pay dividends. Even if a company is profitable, international capital is naturally willing to discount valuations; for the same performance, valuations are lower than their US peers.
3. The market is highly dependent on foreign capital, and monetary policy is weakly independent. The Fed's liquidity shifted, with massive foreign capital flowing in and out. During large-scale foreign sell-offs, local retail investors mainly rely on borrowing and leveraging to buy in, which easily triggers circuit breakers and causes some of the most volatile market in the world.
Third, the allocation choices of global institutions have changed.
For the same company, US ADR trading is more convenient, settled in US dollars, and included in mainstream US stock indices, making institutional risk control and compliance easier to handle.
For large overseas funds, being able to buy in the US market means there's no need to deal with various friction costs in the Korean domestic market: exchange rate risks, local regulatory changes, tax system shifts, and holding restrictions from emerging market classification.
But we must objectively distinguish two things:
A business is not the same as a market.
SK Hynix and Samsung still have strong product competitiveness, and their industry status will not be easily marginalized. However, domestic Korean exchanges may gradually be marginalized.
Assets remain, but the main battlefield for trading and pricing has shifted to US stocks.
Of course, it won't immediately decline completely. South Korea is also pushing value enhancement reforms to improve shareholder returns and attempt to fix the discount issue. Entrenched issues are hard to restore; the system and chaebol structure cannot be reversed in a short time.
In the short term of the trade of institutions "going long on ADRs and shorting Korean stocks," the short-term profits are premium arbitrage. In the long run, capital is voting with its feet: for the same asset, capital is more willing to embrace the US stock trading system rather than the Korean domestic market.
This also gives us a lesson: investing should not only look at the company itself, but also at the system, liquidity, and pricing power of the trading market it is part of. Good companies, if placed in a market with significant structural flaws, will also bear additional systemic risks. The Fed debate has moved from the size of a policy change to its direction. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari emphasize persistent inflation, while Waller is the sole public voice supporting a 25bp September cut because employment could weaken quickly.
Warsh offered no directional signal and reaffirmed the 2% goal. With two CPI releases due before Sept 16-17 and markets leaning toward a hike, incoming inflation and labor data now carry unusually asymmetric policy weight.
Not financial advice.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #OKXOrbit#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
SanDisk's recent earnings report really gave me an emo effect. After the market today, I was watching SNDK's trend for a long time and couldn't recover. Does anyone who has heavily invested and fallen into the pitfall understand this kind of disparity?
Before the market opened, I was full of anticipation and repeatedly reviewed the forecasts. The market had always been optimistic about AI storage, especially since news of HBM and flash shortages had been flying everywhere, and the industry's price hike logic had been brewing for quite some time. When the FY2026 Q4 financial report was released, the data looked all positive: revenue was $8.97 billion, far exceeding the market estimate of $8.48 billion; adjusted EPS was $39.25, also well above the institution's forecast of $34.96, clearly proving that the storage demand brought by AI is truly supporting the company's performance.
Even more significant, the company directly added $14 billion in share buyback authorizations. Combined with the remaining quota, the total buyback authorization shot up to $15.5 billion. Such a large-scale buyback would normally stabilize the stock price and benefit shareholders. At the time, I even bet with my US stock trading friends that tonight we would at least push the stock market higher, even adding to our positions, fantasizing about profiting from a wave of earnings realization.
Who would have thought that all the previous impressive data could not outweigh a single revenue guidance for next quarter. The company projected a revenue range of 10.3 billion to 10.8 billion USD for Q1 FY2027, but the median value of the range fell short of the market's previously unanimous optimistic expectations. At this single point, funds collectively voted with their feet, causing a sharp after-hours plunge: SNDK fell over 11.38%, and related token XSNDK dropped 11.41%, causing accounts to pull back sharply.
Previously, the core of market debate was whether the demand for AI storage could be sustained. Now, the trend has completely shifted, and everyone is worried: how long can the dividends of storage prices and high-bandwidth flash memory last, and whether they can sustain the current high valuations?
Looking at the intraday chart that kept going downward, after hesitating for a long time, I finally forced myself to cut my losses and exit. Even though the sector had been steady in recent days, the earnings report immediately reversed the trend. Today, I truly understood the saying that good news turns negative news is truly realized. In the short term, I don't dare to touch the storage sector again; I'll wait and see until market divergences have digested before making any decisions.#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
Financial reports beat expectations but plunged—what happened to SanDisk?
SanDisk's latest FY2026 Q4 financial report is out, and the data looks quite impressive. Revenue reached $8.97 billion, exceeding market expectations, and adjusted EPS also far exceeded forecasts, with strong demand for AI storage clearly reflected in its performance. The company directly added $14 billion in share buyback authorization, bringing the total remaining buyback quota to $15.5 billion, a bold gesture to the market.
But with the positive news in place, the stock price instead plunged after hours. The core trigger is the revenue guidance for the next quarter. FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance ranges from $10.3 to $10.8 billion, with the median below market consensus expectations.
On one hand, the current performance is impressive and the buyback of tens of billions is supporting the bottom; on the other, the outlook is weak, directly tearing apart market divisions. Market attention is no longer focused on whether AI storage demand is genuine, but instead on the debate: how far can the storage price hike trend go, and whether the demand for high-bandwidth flash can continue to support current valuations.
Earnings paid off ≠ stock prices rose—a scene that has repeatedly played out in tech stocks. Current financial reports are a thing of the past; capital trading always reflects future expectations. With short-term sentiment fluctuations, the bullish and bearish tug-of-war will intensify further.$ETH Latest news: Liquidation chart... To determine the direction, you still need to watch the news
The ETH liquidation map shows that long and short positions are heavily backlogged, with many liquidation spots on both sides.
All suspense is left for tomorrow, as the Fed's speech + nonfarm payroll data take the stage.
Tonight, let's wait for news—tomorrow is the critical turning point!
Whether they can get out of the direction depends on this wave
Big news: Directly hit 2000
Bad news is the end of the game: it went back to around 1800
🤮 #以太坊草案EIP-8363 sparked controversy #星球日报 $ETH $BTC Currently, SanDisk (SNDK) Q4 revenue is $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, with GAAP net profit turning profitable at $6.9 billion; Adjusted EPS is $39.25, far exceeding the expected $34.37. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-on-year. Data center business revenue for the quarter was $2.98 billion, up 1298% year-on-year.
However, it once fell 8% after hours. Reasons: (1) Q1 revenue guidance was $10.3-10.8 billion, with a median of $10.55 billion, below the expected $10.8 billion; (2) Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% showed no further expansion; (3) Consumer business declined 32% quarter-on-quarter, becoming a clear weakness.
Positive factors: Eight long-term agreements have been signed, locking in more than half of supply for fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal year 2028; Board approves $14 billion buyback; Recently released 332-layer QLC NAND technology.
The fundamentals of the storage bull market remain unchanged—Morgan Stanley warns that memory shortages will last at least two years. I estimate a 55% probability that the short-term market will fluctuate and digest at the current level, and the market will need time to reprice; There is a 35% chance of a further pullback of 10-15%, as AI storage expectations have been overhyped; Only a 10% chance of a rapid rebound is needed, which would require Q1 guidance to be revised upward or as a catalyst for exceeding expectations.
The key lies in whether stronger earnings guidance can be presented going forward. Long-term logic is smooth, but short-term valuations are under pressure.
⚠️ Personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks $SNDK $BTC $BICO This manipulative method is the same as BEAT: first support the spot price to push the contract higher, then repeatedly pull at the high contract to cover spot selling. After the spot is sold, the bearish price starts to fall......$SNDK
闪迪（SNDK）财报简评：业绩炸裂，为何股价盘后暴跌8%？
1. 业绩创纪录：2026财年Q4营收89.7亿美元（同比暴增372%），毛利率飙升至84.6%，AI数据中心业务成为绝对核心引擎。
2. 暴跌导火索：下一财季营收指引（中值105.5亿美元）不及华尔街预期，毛利率指引环比持平，引发市场对盈利“见顶”的担忧。
3. 核心逻辑：典型的“买预期，卖事实”。前期涨幅透支了过高预期，“超预期的过去”没能抵消“略低于预期的未来”。
4. 长期看点：短期承压不改长期逻辑。公司通过长期协议（NBM）锁定未来数年产能，正逐步摆脱传统存储行业的周期宿命。
总结：短期情绪宣泄，长期基本面未破，后续关注AI存储需求的持续性。#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进
The century-old cross-border remittance giant officially steps in, turning stablecoins from a "transfer tool" to the "last mile for everyday spending," and this time Western Union has truly made it happen.
On August 4, Western Union partnered with crypto payment service provider Rain to officially launch Stablecard. The product is already live in 37 markets, with plans to expand to over 60 markets by the end of 2026.
Let's get to the core details:
- The underlying stablecoin USDPT is issued by the US federally licensed bank Anchorage Digital Bank, running on the Solana blockchain, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, fully backed by USD reserves;
- The product essentially combines a USDPT digital wallet with a Visa-backed credit card. Users receiving Western Union cross-border remittances can directly credit USDPT without converting to local fiat, enabling direct spending at over 175 million Visa merchants worldwide, ATM withdrawals, and supports Apple Pay and Google Pay contactless payments;
- The wallet supports free transfers of USDPT to external wallets and exchanges. On-chain gas fees, private key management, and compliance settlement are all covered by Western Union and Rain, offering zero barriers for users.
The significance of this is far beyond "just another crypto payment card."
Western Union processed over $107.4 billion in cross-border remittance principal in 2025, covering more than 200 countries and regions, making it the world's largest offline cross-border remittance network. Previously, stablecoins only solved the front-end problem of "fast and cheap cross-border transfers," but recipients always had to convert coins back to fiat for daily spending. The intermediate conversion loss, delayed receipt, and local payment barriers have been persistent bottlenecks for adoption.
Now, Stablecard directly connects stablecoin balances to Visa's global payment network, effectively closing the full chain from cross-border remittance and value storage to daily spending. For emerging markets with volatile local currencies, ordinary people can hold dollar-equivalent assets with zero barriers and use them directly for groceries, fuel, and cash withdrawals, turning inflation resistance from theory into practice.
For the BTC crypto industry, the signal is also very clear:
First, compliant stablecoins' real-world use cases have officially expanded from institutional settlement to everyday consumer spending, no longer just an insider concept; second, the Solana ecosystem gains another heavyweight real-world application. Although USDPT's current circulation is still at an early stage, backed by Western Union's user base in the hundreds of millions, the growth potential is clear.
Back to the impact on BTC and the broader market:
In the short term, it is unlikely to directly increase coin prices since this is a stablecoin payment scenario unrelated to market trends. But in the long term, as traditional financial giants gradually complete the payment and storage infrastructure for crypto assets, they are essentially building real-world value for the entire industry. As more ordinary people interact with and use stablecoins through remittances and spending, public acceptance of crypto assets will continue to rise, eventually influencing BTC's long-term valuation logic.
The long-term trend of the crypto industry is not supported by one-time price pumps but by one solid real-world adoption after another, gradually building up.
Do you think this wave can bring a rally to $SOL?
$BTC , $SOL $ETH Today, the $1,900 mark was recovered, showing improved short-term momentum (holding above EMA50/EMA200, MACD golden cross), with continued whale accumulation and ETF inflows providing support. However, the daily chart remains below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the major structure has yet to confirm a reversal. $1,816 is the last line of defense for bulls—a break would trigger over $1 billion in long liquidations; while $2,002 is the trigger line for short liquidations. The current price is right in this "liquidation layer that can be blown up or down."The global focus is on SanDisk's financial report, yet it still keeps falling. Is there a gap for many people?
SanDisk
$SNDK
After the earnings came out, the market's first reaction was very real:
Performance is strong, but the stock price continues to fall
Regular closing on August 5,
$SNDK
Closed at $1350.50, down 5.4%; After the earnings report, the market continued to fall 4%–8% in after-hours trading.
This FY2026 Q4 financial report itself is actually quite good—in fact, it's quite strong:
Revenue was $8.965 billion, up +372% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of $8.394 billion;
Gross margin was 84.6%, a record high;
Non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, about 13%–14% better than expected;
GAAP net profit was $6.903 billion, compared to a loss in the same period last year.
The most critical is the data center business
This quarter, data center revenue was $2.977 billion, up +103% quarter-on-quarter, becoming the number one growth engine.
This shows that
$SNDK
It's not just about relying on traditional consumer storage for repair, but about truly benefiting from the AI/data center cycle.
But why is the stock price still falling?
The core reason isn't the poor quarterly earnings report, but rather the market's trading issues:
Is the pace of NAND price increases starting to slow marginally?
The company's FY2027 Q1 guidance is revenue of $10.3–10.8 billion.
The absolute numbers continued to grow, but the month-on-month growth rate was not as aggressive as the market had anticipated.
On top of that,
$SNDK
In the past 52 weeks, the stock price has surged over 130%, with expectations already at full capacity.
So once the earnings report is released, as long as the guidance doesn't continue to exceed expectations significantly, profit-taking is likely to be triggered.
This is a typical example:
The fundamentals are not bad, but expectations are too high
From a technical perspective,
$SNDK
The current price is at about the 26th percentile of the 52-week range of $998.19–$2354.39, with short-term moving averages flat, and an RSI of 14 at 48, not considered extremely oversold.
The MA20 and MA60 remain above, indicating that the short-term trend has not fully recovered.
My assessment of this financial report is:
The company's quality remains strong, and the logic of volume and price growth driven by data centers still holds.
The $14 billion in new buyback authorizations also shows management's confidence in their cash flow and valuation.
But in the short term, there's no rush to catch the flying knife, because the market is not doubting right now
$SNDK
Whether it can make money is a repricing of how much longer the price hike cycle can last.
If AI data center capital expenditure continues to exceed expectations and NAND/enterprise SSD demand remains tight,
$SNDK
The medium- to long-term logic still holds.
But if downstream demand slows and the price increase logic reverses, profit elasticity will also amplify in reverse.
So I will take it
$SNDK
Classified as:
Strong fundamentals, short-term cautious view.
It's not a financial report crash, but a sentiment correction following high expectations.
Next, let's focus on three key points:
After the FY2027 Q1 guidance, will institutions lower their target prices?
Can NAND price increases continue to be passed on to enterprise-level SSDs?
Can the high quarter-on-quarter growth in data center business continue?
$SNDK
This financial report proves that AI storage demand is real, but the stock price needs to absorb overly high expectations in the short term.
Still my view: don't negate the storage supercycle just because of a single pullback,
But don't rush to chase before stabilization.
DYOR does not constitute investment advice. SanDisk's financial report explodes but it falls! Can a 14 billion yuan buyback save the situation?
After the market closed on August 5 Eastern Time, SanDisk (SNDK) delivered a phenomenal report: Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372% and a quarter-on-quarter surge of 51%; Adjusted EPS was $39.25, both significantly exceeding expectations; Gross margin soared to 84.6%, compared to just 26% a year ago! Annual revenue was 20.25 billion, net profit was 11.4 billion, and the data center business grew explosively, more than tenfold year-on-year.
Even more impressive, the board added $14 billion in buyback authorizations at once, raising the remaining quota to $15.5 billion, and in Q4 it spent $4.5 billion to buy its own shares. At the same time, more multi-year long-term contracts have been signed, extending order visibility to over four years, confirming the dividends of AI storage shortages.
And what happened? The stock price had already fallen 5.4% during regular trading and plunged over 7% in after-hours trading. The reason is simple—next quarter's revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, with a median slightly below the market's higher expectations. A typical case of "good performance selling facts."
Short-term sentiment is under pressure, but fundamentals are too strong: AI data center demand is still in its early stages, with tight supply, strong pricing, long-term contract certainty, and massive buybacks providing a solid foundation. The storage cycle upward trend is far from over; SanDisk has transformed from a "cyclical stock" into an "AI beneficiary with a moat."
Could a pullback be an opportunity, or will it continue to push valuations down? Let's keep a close eye on the storage sector's next move!
#闪迪 #SNDK #存储芯片 #AI存储ADP is cut in half! But don't get too happy yet—5 quick reviews
Quick Review 1: 44,000 vs 75,000
ADP was cut in half. In June, it was still 95,000; in July, it dropped to just 44,000. It hit a six-month low.
Service sector barely holds up the scene +47,000, goods manufacturing sector -3,000.
This is not slowing down, this is stalling.
Quick Review 2: Data Release: Probability of a September Rate Hike Rises from 67% → 59%
But don't get too happy too soon—
On the same day, Fed Governor Tim Cook said, "If inflation does not fall, we are prepared to support rate hikes." Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said, "Rate hikes are needed now, starting as early as September."
The officials were desperately trying to pull them back.
Employment has stalled, but inflation has not. The Fed is caught in the middle, caught between the two sides.
Quick Review 3: BTC is trading sideways at 64,000
ETFs saw net inflows of over $200 million over the past two days, but they still couldn't pull the price up. Institutions are buying, but prices remain unchanged.
64,000 is not the end, but the calm before the storm.
Quick Review 4: Friday is the non-farm payroll, that's the real show
Expected 85,000.
If the nonfarm payroll also surprises (<60,000) → rate hike expectations collapse→ BTC could surge to 68,000. If the nonfarm payroll exceeds expectations (>100,000) → rate hike expectations return→ BTC may fall back to 60,000.
ADP is just a trailer; nonfarm payrolls are the main feature, CPI is an Easter egg.
Quick Review 5: My advice—now is not the time to go all out
Watch three matches before placing a bet.
Some peers say, "Don't gamble on ADP like non-farm payrolls"—I agree.
Be patient, and the direction will come on Friday.
Don't die before dawn, and don't fall into FOMO.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #ADP就业降温, the Fed's policy divergence has intensified After its earnings report, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped from 1484 to 1266, with Q4 revenue of 8.97 billion and EPS of 3.925 beating both sides. However, next quarter's revenue guidance of 10.3-10.8 billion was slightly below Wall Street's 11.16 billion forecast, showing the typical positive of "good earnings + insufficient guidance + excessive price increase before the earnings report."
Forecast for subsequent trends
- Short-term (1-2 weeks): 1260-1350 fluctuates to digest selling pressure; below 1000-1100 is the lowest institutional target price and psychological support zone; before it breaks, it does not count as a trend reversal; On 8/13, before the investor clarifies the long-term NBM agreement + buyback rhythm, a V-shaped reversal is unlikely.
- Transshipment (August-December): If AI data center NAND logic is not disproven + the cycle does not have a hard landing, institutional consensus targets for 2381, Goldman Sachs 2200, Evercore 3100 remain; after sufficient pullback, 1400-1600 is expected to rebuild the platform; Conversely, if NAND price increases peak and are confirmed, turnover at 1000-1200 is normal.
- Key confirmation level: The daily chart holds above 1350 to be considered a short-term stabilization; a recovery is considered complete if it breaks above 1484.
SanDisk's recent move is a "good earnings report counter-killed by high expectations." 1266 is not the bottom but near the bottom, but don't treat it as a bottom reversal—on 8/13, investors recently viewed the price as a 1000-1350 oscillation box, holding above 1350 before discussing a recovery. The institutional average price target of 2381 is a medium-term story, not a short-term commitment. #财报观察员: Mixed performance, lock-up lifting imminent! What is SpaceX's outlook going forward? #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable The heat waves twisted the reticle inside the optical scope from 800 meters away, sweat stuck to the sniper grip, but my index finger was still firmly pressed outside the trigger guard—this was definitely not the time to pull the trigger.
The observer hand spat out the number "44,000" through the headset. The Fed's old target has clearly slowed down, with private sector job creation in July only 44,000, far below the expected 75,000, marking the lowest trajectory in half a year. This indicates that the enemy defense line is bleeding, and the heat signals in the labor market are rapidly declining.
But if you think this means you can fire at will, you won't survive the next tactical cycle.
Through the scope, the anemometer was shaking violently. The Fed's senior sentinels continue to warn of inflation risks. CME's market rangefinder shows the probability of another 25 basis point rate hike in September remains above 50%. Inflation is that damn persistent crosswind, and the slowdown in employment is just a brief local fog. Two streams of air violently squeezed along the trajectory, and the correction parameters on the reicing plate deviated terribly large.
The crypto market and US stock token $XSNDK are like grass lurking outside a bunker, shaken violently by this macro current. $XSNDK's coordination and changes are nothing more than the endless boredom of the new recruits blindly testing fire. Frequent attacks in the chaotic ballistic zone, aside from exposing your camouflage position and having your helmet flipped off by empty stray shells, have no tactical value.
My infiltration rule has only one iron rule: there is no absolute profit-loss ratio, and I will never use stockpiled bullets.
The weakness in ADP data is merely a tentative retreat of the enemy outpost. The truly deadly trajectory depends on Friday's nonfarm payroll data and the next round of CPI weather reports. These are two sets of high-precision laser ranging data that will directly determine the tactical deployment of the enemy's main force in September.
Pull the bolt, unpack, and reload the chamber. Insert $XSNDK's fluctuations into the dynamic stop-loss frame to lock in heart rate and block out noise.
Ace snipers never rely on luck to guess the wind; they only strike a fatal blow at the moment when the storm has died and the target is completely exposed at the center of the crosshair.
#ADPCoolsFedSplit Trump has been telling the world that the Strait of Hormuz will be open, but he hasn't said under what conditions it will be open.
Maybe it's a kind of tacit rule for opening, like the agreement Iran reached with Oman:
A fee of 5% or 7% will be charged, or the condition is slightly relaxed: you pay voluntarily.
Some European countries recently said they would voluntarily form an alliance to pay this fee;
but if you don't pay, it might be very difficult to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz.
The world has been peaceful for a long time and no longer knows what war is; the U.S. has lost its global dominance and control.
What Trump currently declares to the world is that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. Israel is safe, the Strait of Hormuz will be open, but under what conditions will it be open?
This is currently a question mark.
In other words, the war initiated by Trump not only failed to solve the problem but also increased the global energy burden.
Now, Trump can only seek a dignified way to exit.
Perhaps people generally underestimate the cost and price of overthrowing the Iranian regime. This price is only one: total war, and it is extremely costly:
1. Resource preparation: sufficient weapons and equipment, plus preparing 5 trillion U.S. dollars.
2. Economic impact: facing a global economic recession lasting at least a year.
3. Political cooperation: requiring bipartisan cooperation in the U.S. and cooperation from NATO allies to achieve this goal.
So now, Trump can only exit in this way, everyone.
It may also signal the end of the American era. In some respects, not in a comprehensive sense, but in some respects, it is so.#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
I believe SanDisk's financial report is a typical example of "performance beating expectations but valuation logic changing," with market divisions shifting from AI demand verification to whether the price increase cycle can be sustained.
The basis is that FY2026 Q4 revenue is expected to be $8.97 billion and adjusted EPS of $39.25, both of which are expected to crush the company, and the company has approved an additional $14 billion buyback, demonstrating management's confidence in cash flow and shareholder returns. However, the median guidance of $10.55 billion in Q1 FY2027 was below consensus, directly causing the after-hours price to fall, indicating that capital is no longer paying for the "story" but is focusing on pricing power for the next quarter.
In details, revenue exceeded expectations by 5.8% and EPS by 12.3%, but the median guidance of 10.3-10.8 billion yuan was only 17.6% quarter-on-quarter growth from Q4, far below market expectations for explosive growth in AI storage. More importantly, although the $15.5 billion remaining buyback authorization is huge, if revenue growth slows in the coming quarters, buybacks may instead be seen as a signal of a lack of higher-return investment directions.
Currently, the core investment focus in the storage sector has shifted from "whether there is AI demand" to "whether prices can continue to rise + high-bandwidth product volume expansion." SanDisk's buyback is a safety cushion, but not a catalyst; The real winner lies in the shipment structure of ASP and HBM/enterprise SSD in the next quarter.
$SNDK
@OKX planet US July ADP private employment data is out—only 44,000 new jobs were added.
What does 44,000 mean?
In June, this figure was 95,000. Market expectations are 75,000.
In just one month, it was slashed from 95,000 to 44,000. This marks the lowest level since January this year.
The service sector added 47,000 new jobs, while the goods production sector directly lost 3,000 jobs. Trade, Transport and Utilities jobs decreased by 8,000, compared to an increase of 15,000 in June.
This is not a "slowdown."
This is "stalling."
After the data came out, the market reacted immediately—
The US dollar index fell below 100, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries plunged from 4.67% to 4.61%.
The probability of a September rate hike for the CME dropped from nearly 70% before the data release to 54.9%.
Gold surged $188 in a single day, an increase of 4.48%. Bitcoin broke through $65,000, up 1.5% in 24 hours.
The market immediately voted for "no rate hikes."
But—
The celebration did not come.
Bitcoin swayed briefly near 65,000 but failed to surge. Gold rose $188, but institutions said, "This is CTA short squeeze out, not genuine buying."
Why?
Because on the same day, Fed officials collectively came out to "pour cold water" on the situation.
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said: "The time for rate hikes has come, and hopefully it will be implemented in September."
Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook said: If inflation does not improve, they are ready to support rate hikes.
New York Fed President Williams said: If inflation fails to fall as expected, the option to raise interest rates is entirely appropriate.
Employment data says "stop adding," while officials say "it must increase."
The market is caught in the middle, caught in a dilemma.
Brothers, does this scene sound familiar?
Cooling employment is the "release of the accelerator"—but inflation is the "brake pad."
As long as CPI doesn't come down, the Fed won't dare to relax.
ADP gave the market hope of "no rate hikes," but officials withdrew those hopes.
Data shows that salary growth for job-hopping employees has soared to 7%, the largest increase since August 2025. The salary growth rate for retained employees remained at 4.4%, not decreasing at all.
Wages are still rising, so how can inflation come down?
So the current situation is—
ADP data was poor, the market briefly frenzied, then quickly calmed down.
Because everyone knows: ADP is just an appetizer.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls were the first main course.
The market expects about 80,000 new nonfarm payrolls in July, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. If the nonfarm payroll is also "halved" like ADP, the probability of a rate hike in September could drop directly below 45%.
But if the non-farm payroll outperforms expectations—then ADP's "stalling" will be reinterpreted by the market.
Then comes next Wednesday's CPI.
Employment + inflation, playing both cards at once.
Whether the Fed will raise rates in September lies in these two numbers.
ADP kept the market excited for five minutes.
But the real judgment day is on Friday and next Wednesday.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #ADP就业降温, the Fed's policy divergence has intensified Just like I said earlier this morning, $SPCX rally looked like a classic bull trap.
The pump attracted buyers, but the price has now fallen back to 110, erasing the gains from the past few days.
I opened a position at 110. It rallied to 130, and now it's back to my entry.
The first token unlock begins at 9:30 PM, and market nerves are clearly showing.
A large unlock doesn't mean all 910 million shares or tokens will be sold immediately. But if even 100–200 million hit the market at current prices, 100–105 could become the next target.
Panic often brings in bargain hunters, but with multiple unlocks scheduled throughout August and September, downside pressure may continue.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch While the entire audience was holding their breath in amazement at the white dove that flew out of my right hand, no one noticed that the chips in their pockets had already slipped quietly through the mechanisms beneath the stage.
The moment the bleak new figure of 44,000 was announced, the audience erupted in commotion. The expected 70,000? The previous value of 98,000? Ha, in the eyes of a true fraud magician, these so-called macro employment figures are nothing more than talc-coated prop playing cards. Standing under the brightest spotlight on the stage, the bookmaker elegantly swiped his finger and performed a classic "Double Lift" to the crowd—the first card opened, boldly reading "Employment slows, easing is coming." What dazzling and tempting glitter powder! Retail investors immediately widened their eyes, craned their necks, and eagerly offered their chips to the illusion of "interest rate cuts to rescue the market."
This is exactly the "misdirection" I'm most familiar with. When everyone's attention is tightly pulled by the "currency turn" on this white dove circling in the air, who cares about the hidden door quietly opening beneath the stage carpet? The abrupt halt in employment momentum is not a gentle prelude to market rescue, but rather a hanging economic axe hanging in midair, ready to strike at any moment.
Let's look at those $XMETA stocks deeply linked to the US stock market; their movements are like a parallel double-sided mirror installed in a magic box. On the US side, a light tap on the wooden board of the toolbox, and the crypto targets here immediately perform a "liquidity reproduction" jumping dance. Every sharp rise you see on candlestick charts is nothing more than a false trajectory drawn by the main force using your persistent retina effect, like fireworks in the dark. You think you've caught your trump card, but in fact, you haven't even touched the box.
In the law of our fraud magic, the more favorable "there is no way out" seems to be, the deeper the hidden spring lock becomes. Market makers use the ADP card to forcibly package the toxic hidden weapon of "economic slowdown" as the honey of "loose interest rate cuts." They wildly waved their scarves in front of the stage, covering up the already drained cash pool backstage. While you're still waiting for a rate cut to arrive, the behind-the-scenes reshuffling masters have already completed a split-second reshuffle, draining liquidity completely.
The more masterful the trick, the more hidden the killing intent is in the silent places. While everyone was cheering for the missed stats, the guillotine at the bottom of the stage had quietly unlocked the safety buckle.
#影响周期 · Monthly Grade #宏观数据 · Employment #ADP · 44,000 · Expected 70,0008.97 billion in revenue, $39.25 billion in EPS, 14 billion in buybacks—SanDisk delivered a flawless financial report, but after hours, it was still slashed 8%. Lao Mo tells you what the market is afraid of
Guys, last night SanDisk released a flawless financial report.
Revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, exceeding the market expectation of $8.394 billion. GAAP net profit was $6.903 billion. Non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $39.25—just $0.29 in the same quarter last year, a 135-fold increase. Gross margin reached 84.6%, compared to just 26.4% a year ago, a 3.2-fold increase. All three core stats set new single-quarter records.
By business segment, the data center revenue surged 1298% year-on-year, doubling quarter-on-quarter. Edge computing business revenue increased 392% year-on-year. Full-year revenue was 20.25 billion yuan, up 175% year-on-year.
They also played a big card: the board approved an additional $14 billion in buyback authorizations, bringing the total remaining buyback authorizations to $15.5 billion.
The financial report showed no flaws, and after hours, it fell as much as 8%. During regular trading, it has already fallen 5.4%, and in after-hours it fell nearly 8%, totaling over 13% over two days.
What is the market afraid of? Two words: guidance.
Q1 revenue guidance for fiscal year 2027 is 10.3-10.8 billion, with a median of 10.55 billion. FactSet's market expectation is 10.82 billion. That's nearly 300 million yuan short. Adjusted EPS guidance is $44-46, with analysts expecting $45.58. Gross margin guidance is 83%-85%, with almost no quarter-on-quarter growth.
Both revenue and profit exceeded expectations, but what the market wants is "shock"—giving "good" isn't enough, it wants "unimaginable."
With such a strong financial report, why only give a "decent" guidance?
SanDisk was very blunt during the call—production capacity is already overwhelmed. More than half of the capacity for fiscal year 2027 has already been locked in by long-term agreements, and about two-thirds have already been finalized for fiscal year 2028. The minimum revenue scale of the long-term agreements signed has reached $93.9 billion. It's not that they can't sell, but that they can't produce that much.
But Wall Street doesn't care about that. What they see is: revenue guidance is 300 million less, gross margin is not rising, and the stock price is already plunging in respect.
The $1,370 strike price has accumulated the largest open interest in options contracts. Both bulls and bears had already heavily invested in this position before the earnings report, and once the report came out, regardless of the outcome, some people wanted to close their positions. Part of this 8% drop is the result of options games, not fundamentals.
Back to the market, it jumped straight from the 1483 high to the 1226 low. The upper Bollinger band is 1503, the lower band is 1212, with a price of 1251 running near the lower band. This is an extremely weak signal; it's not the time to buy the dip. SAR turn signal 1311 has been left far behind, and SuperTrend 1364 is also overshadowed. MACD death cross has formed, DIFF -39.66, DEA -21.89, and energy bars -35.53. Bearish momentum is still amplifying, with no signs of stopping the decline.
Key levels: First resistance above is 1310-1320; only a reclaim here could stabilize; Below 1226, the current lowest point; if it breaks, look directly at 1200-1212.
Old Mo said a few words to his brothers in different situations.
Stuck brothers: The 1226-1250 area is short-term support, but if volume drops below 1226 or even breaks below 1212, stop losses when necessary—don't hold on. A 14 billion yuan buyback is not just for show; the company can enter at any price level to support the bottom, but you can't bet your life on buybacks. The above 1310-1320 is the first hurdle of the rebound; reduce positions first.
Brothers wanting to enter short positions: wait until volume shrinks and stabilizes between 1226-1250, then talk. If there are stop-drop signals such as lower shadows or shrinking doji, try a light position and go long, set your stop loss below 1200, targeting 1310-1320. Alternatively, wait for the price to climb back above 1310 and then chase on the right side, and observe until then.
Lao Mo finally said: SanDisk's problem isn't the company's problem, it's that its expectation management hasn't outperformed the market's imagination. The medium- and long-term logic remains unbroken—eight long-term contracts lock in 93.9 billion in revenue, the new HBF standard has just been implemented, and the storage shortage pattern remains unchanged in 2027. But in the short term, the market doesn't accept this. If it wants 10.82 billion, you give 10.55 billion, and it smashes it.
Will you copy SanDisk's pullback or not? Let's talk in the comments.
If you think Lao Mo can break it down clearly, give a like and follow. When I get to the key spot, I'll call you right away. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #ADP就业降温, intensified Fed policy divergence, ADP (Small Nonfarm Payrolls) falls short of expectations. ADP is a private employment outlook data, not an official nonfarm payroll, used to predict Friday's nonfarm payroll report. This time, the actual increase was 44,000 yuan, compared to the expected 70,000 yuan, which is significantly below expectations, but salaries remain relatively high, reflecting the contradictory data of "employment cooling while salary stickiness persists." For traditional financial markets 1. US Treasury yields fell, and the US dollar weakened slightly; The market lowered the probability of further Fed rate hikes, cooling expectations for a rate hike in September. 2. Positive for stocks and gold; But with wage data remaining high, it locks in the possibility of rapid rate cuts, only lowering the likelihood of further rate hikes, not immediate cuts. Dual impact ✅ on virtual currencies (BTC/ETH) Short-term positive logic: Cooling employment, declining rate hike expectations, falling US Treasury yields, improved liquidity expectations Theoretically, this benefits high-risk assets like crypto, easily driving short-term rebounds ⚠️, but hidden negative risks (very critical) 1. If the market interprets this as a rapid economic downturn and rising recession concerns, funds will collectively avoid risk and instead sell off risk assets in the crypto sector, resulting in an abnormal market of "poor data and falling coin prices." 2. ADP is only a forward-looking indicator; to truly set the direction, look at Friday's nonfarm payrolls. ADP often diverges from nonfarm payroll results and often only experiences short-term pulse rallies that can lead to "positive gains realized" pullbacks. 3. Wage growth hasn't slowed, so the Fed won't fully switch to easing, so the positive factors are limited, making it hard to see a large-scale, unilateral rally. ADP falling short of expectations is a dovish biasBTC broke through to a high of 65,025 but failed to hold steady and then repeatedly fell back to around 64,500. The current price has fallen below the 1-hour MA5 and MA10 but still holds near MA20, indicating a short-term shift from upward to pullback.
The 4-hour MA5> MA10> MA20 bullish alignment are still maintained, and the current price is above all moving averages. The medium-cycle bullish structure has not yet failed.
In the next 24 hours:
First support: 64,500–64,400
Key support: 64,200–64,000
Strong support: 63,880–63,600
First pressure: 64,600–64,700
Key resistance: 64,900–65,025
Strong resistance: 65,300–65,400
If it holds 64,400 and regains above 64,700, BTC may retest 65,000–65,025; after a breakout, target 65,300. If it falls below 64,400, it may pull back to 64,200–64,000; a break below 63,880 would mean a clear weakening of the 4-hour bullish structure.
ETH rebounded to a peak of 1,928, then pulled back to 1,897. Current prices are below the 1-hour MA5 and MA10 but remain above MA20; The short-term market is digesting the previous rapid rise.
The 4-hour trend continues with standard bullish alignment, and the current price is also above all moving averages, so for now, this is a normal pullback within a bullish trend.
In the next 24 hours:
First support: 1,893–1,885
Key support: 1,875–1,872
Strong support: 1,855–1,850
First pressure: 1,906–1,911
Key pressure: 1,925–1,928
Strong resistance: 1,937–1,950
If it holds 1,893 and climbs back above 1,911, ETH still has a chance to challenge 1,928 again; After a breakout, target 1,937–1,950. If it falls below 1,893, it may test the 1,875–1,872 near the 4-hour MA20.
Overall judgment: In the next 24 hours, the trend is more likely to be "high-level consolidation, overall slightly bullish," but short-term pullback pressure remains. BTC holds 64,000 and ETH holds 1,872; the 4-hour bullish trend remains valid; If 65,025 and 1,928 are broken above respectively, the upward trend will accelerate further.
This is for technical analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
Circle's latest earnings report is not bad, but it also exposes an old problem:
USDC's scale is growing, yet Circle still relies too heavily on interest income.
In Q1, the average circulating supply of USDC increased by 39.1% year-over-year, driving a 17% growth in reserve income. However, the reserve yield dropped by 66 basis points during the same period, offsetting about $106 million in additional income.
In other words, USDC needs to keep expanding to hedge against the pressure from falling interest rates.
What is Arc aiming to solve?
Circle's current earnings mainly come from USDC reserves.
In Q1, total revenue and reserve income were $694 million, with reserve income at $653 million, accounting for about 94%. Other income doubled to $41.6 million but remains small in scale.
Circle's Q1 performance
The significance of Arc is to enable Circle not only to issue USDC but also to control more payment, settlement, and developer activities.
Circle has completed a $222 million presale for ARC Token, corresponding to a fully diluted network valuation of $3 billion. It is also advancing micro-payments on the Arc testnet, allowing AI agents, paid APIs, and pay-as-you-go billing to settle high-frequency transactions through USDC.
If this path succeeds, Circle's revenue structure will change:
USDC will no longer just earn interest in reserve accounts but will also become a settlement asset for on-chain payments and machine trading.
But Arc has yet to prove itself.
Currently, Arc brings more valuation expectations rather than mature income.
Circle's net profit fell 15% in Q1, while spending on personnel, software development, and infrastructure increased.
Arc needs to first attract developers, then generate real transactions, and only then possibly convert into Circle's revenue.
More notably, USDC's circulating supply has not continued to rise.
At the end of Q1, USDC circulation was $77 billion, dropping to about $72.3 billion by July 27. Third-party data shows the current scale is about $73.5 billion, still fluctuating in the short term rather than entering a new rapid expansion phase.
Therefore, Arc cannot yet be directly equated with USDC growth.
My judgment is that Arc's direction is correct.
Circle needs to break away from a business model solely dependent on interest rates and also needs an entry point that connects USDC, the payment network, and the developer ecosystem.
But what the market will watch next is not how much ARC Token sold, but whether Arc can bring real USDC demand.
Key points to watch:
The scale of USDC locked on Arc
Whether payment and settlement volumes can sustain growth
Whether Circle's other income proportion can significantly increase
If these data start to materialize, USDC will shift from "following crypto market expansion" to "growth driven by payments and on-chain applications."
If Arc only has financing, valuation, and ecosystem promotion but no stable transaction volume, then it is more like a new story Circle tells the capital market.
Arc gives USDC a second growth curve, but it is still just the starting point.这一波6.2w~6.5w区间，已经聚集太多筹码，到了选择方向的时候了。之前我也是坚定等最后一跌，但这几天发现全星球都在等跌，我已经有点犹豫了：该不会来一波拉升爆了空单再跌吧？
1. 看24小时清算地图，2.04亿里面空单占1.37亿。$BTC 空单清算占比86.41%，$ETH 空单占64%。这一波空单的结构，明显不是大家主动加的，而是因为被逼仓以防爆仓。
2. 宏观这么弱，前几天曝出的加息预期，包括明天马上就是法案通过的预期落空……按理来说，这么多利空是需要跌的，但竟然一直稳着。利空都不跌，是不是意味着大家等利好拉一波？
3. ETF资金也在悄悄回流了。BTC现货ETF昨日净流入1.7亿美元，今天继续流入0.4亿。机构在63000-64000这个区间接货。散户在割，机构在接。
今晚正好非农数据，我现在是真的有点怀疑它是要爆一波空单再跌了。看非农数据能不能超预期，把逼空行情打断吧I am Nan Yangu, and the news about the Strait of Hormuz is becoming chaotic.
The U.S. side said the agreement would be reached within 48 hours, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister publicly denied any negotiations, and Iran's Supreme Leader's military advisor said talks were still ongoing. The market has already traded in advance for shipping recovery, but repeated official denials mean the risk premium has not been truly cleared, and there are still uncertainties before the agreement is implemented.
Geopolitical news conflicts mean the bottom of oil prices remains unstable
WTI crude fell from above $80 to around $75, with the market pricing in an agreement in advance. But Iran's official denial is shaking this narrative. If negotiations proceed, oil prices may remain under pressure, giving risk assets some breathing room. If negotiations break down, oil prices will rebound rapidly, inflation expectations will heat up again, the probability of Fed rate hikes will increase, and risk assets will be under simultaneous pressure. Currently, oil prices are in a state of high volatility driven by news; $75 is not a confirmation of the bottom, but a waiting direction.
Impact on BTC
BTC is currently at 64,800, and the S&P 500 has climbed above 7,700 points, hitting a record high. Geopolitical easing is one of the key supports for this rebound in risk assets. However, the protocol remains unimplemented or even breaks down, risk appetite will be reversed, and BTC is very likely to fall back to the 62,000 to 63,000 range. With the agreement confirmed, oil prices remain low, and BTC is expected to break through the short liquidation zone between 65,500 and 66,000. 64,800 is a key short-term level. If it rises, watch 65,500 to 66,000; if not, pull back to 64,000 to 64,500.
Impact on SanDisk
Macro risk appetite is an important backdrop for the recent rebound in the storage sector. The S&P hit new highs, oil prices retreated, and the probability of rate hikes decreased—these three forces pushed up the overall valuation of tech stocks. Before SanDisk's earnings report, market expectations were already very high, with the options market fluctuating about 15% after the implied earnings. No matter the geopolitical situation, tonight's earnings report is the real pricing anchor.
How to proceed next
Two factors determine the direction: whether the Hormuz agreement can be implemented, and whether SanDisk's financial report can meet market expectations. The former determines the macro direction, while the latter determines the short-term pace of the storage sector. Before the news comes out, don't bet on direction—wait for the results before making a move.
#临时通航协议待落地, oil price risks have not yet reversed $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Personal views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.$CIRCLE 在主网上线前的事件风险加剧，市场偏好转向利好落地前的仓位防御。USDC流通量从Q1的770亿降至Q2的733亿，即便Arc主网获得贝莱德与Visa节点支持，股价年内下跌20%仍显露出抛压。若9月16日Arc主网上线顺畅且机构资金进场，短线偏好回升将改善支付与RWA赛道流动性。若上线前遭遇“买预期卖事实”清仓或监管政策压制，则此轮利好交易失效。
#特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH🪙 Cryptocurrency Daily · August 6, 2026
Price overview
BTC $64,635 (+0.39%) | ETH $1,910 (+1.80%) | SOL $74.16 (-0.39%) | DOGE $0.0701 (-0.71%)
────────────────
1. BTC
1. [A] Strategy approves multi-billion dollar BTC sale plan + Saylor sells $105M BTC below cost [Forbes/The Motley Fool]
The largest company holders switched from buying to selling, directly suppressing spot prices. X First-hand verification can be seen below by Saylor retweet—I reposted and confirmed sell, cross-confirmed by two sources.
2. [A] Strategy has not bought BTC for six consecutive weeks, then made a small purchase of $101M [thestreet/IBT]
After the buying momentum broke, there was a slight pullback and directional signals became chaotic.
3. [B] Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability causes $114M loss [CryptoPotato]
The security incident triggered short-term panic, echoing CZ's statement that "CEXs are safer than self-custody," which benefited Binance's capital flow.
────────────────
2. ETH
1. [A] EIP-8361 Proposal: Staking 50% ($112B) automatically stops issuing yield [CoinDesk]
Aggressive deflation proposals, community division (Aave founder openly opposed). Mid-term approval = structural deflation positive, short-term suppression of staking appeal.
2. [B] Ethereum Foundation unstaked nearly $50M ETH [Stocktwits]
High-level unstaking is interpreted as a sell signal.
3. [B] Bitmine buys $19.6M ETH, DAT company becomes the largest ETH holder [AltcoinBuzz]
Institutions accumulated shares at low levels and hedged with foundations selling shares.
────────────────
3. SOL
1. [A] Validator support burn volume increased 14-fold to $650,000/day [CoinMarketCap/Yahoo Finance]
The four currencies have the strongest fundamentals and favorable fundamentals, directly reducing circulating supply.
2. [B] Record weekly on-chain trading volume + Morgan Stanley $19M + 330,000 merchants joining Korea [Pluang/CryptoRank]
Actual usage growth + institutional funding + payment-level implementation.
────────────────
4. DOGE
1. [B] Most Oversold RSI in History + Weekly Active Addresses +16% [TradingView/CoinGape]
Technical rebound signals have appeared, but the three-year low trend has not been broken, indicating no fundamental drivers.
────────────────
5. Industry Figures · X First-hand Recommendations
Michael Saylor（@saylor）
1. [X·Retweet] "Strategy sells $BTC to fund dividends, repurchases $106M in STRC — $STRC surges 30%+ from June low" [Aug 5]
I personally reposted and confirmed that I sold BTC to buy back through STRC. Chain of primary evidence closed: Forbes report → I retweeted and confirmed. Solid evidence of mid-term sentiment bearish for BTC.
2. [X·Retweet] "Strategy is a major buyer of $BTC but a minor participant in its trading market" [Aug 5]
Self-defensive statements try to downplay the impact of selling pressure—but acknowledge major buyers while selling openly, making contradictions public.
────────────────
🧭 Trend Judgment (24-72H)
BTC oscillating bearish trend (62K-66K) | Basis: Saylor personally referred a confirmed sell (Forbes + his X dual verification), Strategy has not bought for six weeks, and the geopolitical easing rebound has been hedged by selling pressure. Key catalyst: Will MSTR continue to announce selling?
ETH Volatility (1850-1950) | Based on: +1.80% rebound but EIP-8361 split remains unresolved, Vitalik remains silent and does not take sides, foundation unstaking. Direction is set by the proposal vote results.
SOL Slightly Long (73→80) | Basis: The 14x burn proposal remains the strongest fundamental positive for the four currencies; a slight price drop is a drag on the market rather than a negative for itself. Approval of the proposal is a catalyst.
DOGE Neutral Bearish (0.065-0.075) | Basis: Oversold rebound vs. three-year low trend, no catalyst from any commentary (Elon's silence).
X signal summary: Saylor is confirmed, selling off (the hardest negative news), CZ fully supports CEXs (BNB narrative is positive), Vitalik remains silent (governance uncertainty), Wood's crypto rhetoric cools down (institutional bulls cool down). The four X signals collectively point: At the institutional level, crypto narratives are shifting from "overweight" to "wait-and-see/profit-taking." #ADP就业降温, the Fed's policy divergence has intensified
After ADP came out, the market basically remained unchanged.
Private employment in July increased by only 44,000, below the expected 75,000 and marking a six-month low. Employment is indeed cooling down.
Under normal circumstances, lower-than-expected employment reinforces expectations of rate cuts, which is positive for risk assets. But the problem is that ADP's forecast accuracy has been low in recent months, and the market's pricing weight has been reduced. Now, the real way to change rate hike expectations is to have at least two consecutive weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and CPI data coming together.
Moreover, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are still widespread. Some want to raise rates, some want to cut rates; the Chairman does not take sides. A single employment figure is difficult to change the current balance.
For the crypto community, the current market situation has not changed because of ADP.
It can't fall because employment data is indeed cooling down. It can't rise because the monthly data is not enough to make the market thoroughly reassess the rate hike path. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September remains above half, indicating the market has not truly relaxed.
My judgment is simple—ADP has not changed direction. If the nonfarm payrolls are also weak on Friday, the logic for rate hikes will loosen further, giving the market a chance to push upward. If nonfarms actually strengthen, ADP will be dismissed by the market as noise, and rate hike expectations will be suppressed again. Guessing the direction now is useless; wait for the data to be realized. $ETH $BICO $BTC 44,000 jobs vs. 3.5% inflation: The Fed itself is being put on the scorch, and we suffer along with it
Last night, the US July ADP employment data was released—44,000.
Market expectation is 75,000. Previous value was 95,000 (still revised downward).
This means that U.S. private sector employment in July hit its lowest level since January this year.
All economists' predictions came true.
The employment engine has stalled.
But—
June CPI was 3.5% year-on-year, and core CPI was 2.6%. The Fed's 2% target is still looming in the sky.
Last week, Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook bluntly stated: "Inflation risks outweigh employment risks."
Dallas Fed President Logan was even harsher: "Every month of inflation above target is putting increasing pressure on Americans' living budgets."
On the other side, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said, "I'd rather take small steps now than wait."
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson said: If inflation does not cool down quickly, "interest rate hikes should be considered."
But New York Fed President Williams is dovish: "The current monetary policy is positioned just right."
On one hand, they shouted "Add," on the other, they shouted "Stop."
The Fed itself has been arguing fiercely; how can the market respond?
CME's data tells you—
Probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September: 54.4%.
Probability of rates holding steady in September: 45.6%.
54.4 versus 45.6.
What's the difference between flipping a coin?
The market itself doesn't know which side to bet on.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $211.5 million on Tuesday.
But what about Bitcoin's price?
Still around $64,000, unmoved.
Institutions are buying, pouring real money in. But retail investors are hesitant to follow suit.
A net inflow of 200 million yuan couldn't even push the 65,000 threshold.
Why?
Because no one knows what will happen next week.
Friday Nonfarm Payrolls — If the data continues to be poor, the probability of a rate hike decreases, which is positive. Next Wednesday's CPI — If inflation persists, the probability of rate hikes rises, which is bearish.
Good news and negative news kept switching back and forth between these two reports.
If you go in today, you might be buried tomorrow.
What is the Federal Reserve's current situation?
Rate hikes → suppress inflation→ but may directly kill employment. No rate hikes → jobs will be saved→ but inflation will remain entrenched, with 3.5% never falling to 2%.
No matter which side you choose, someone will get hurt.
Wash said there is no "conflict" between the dual missions.
But the market sees only conflict.
Employment data is calling for a "stop," while inflation data is calling for "increase."
The Fed itself is being put on the fire, and we who hold the currency suffer along with it.
In the next two weeks, the script is already written:
On Friday→ the nonfarm payroll release was released, the market reacted first. Next Wednesday's CPI release → the market will react in reverse.
Wavering between "weak employment → no rate hikes" and "stubborn inflation → continue to rise," he has been repeatedly wavering.
Get ready for a roller coaster.
Do not pursue Gao. Separate from Mangcang. Don't go against the data.
$BTC $ETH #ADP就业降温, Fed policy divergences have intensified #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
The agreement is about to be signed, and oil prices have already dropped by 11%. Within three days, Brent plunged from above $88 to around $79, and the market settled the peace debt early.
But signing an agreement doesn't mean the ship can move. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated in the past, "We will absolutely not accept external intervention," and as long as the U.S. does not lift the blockade, the strait will remain closed. Currently, there are an average of 8 ships operating daily, compared to 130 ships before the war. Restoring from 8 ships to 130 ships requires at least 30 days of mine clearance, insurance, and the shipowner's courage. Expectations are ahead of reality.
The impact of this news on three asset classes varies, but the logical chain is interconnected.
For $CL, it's time for the bears to stop.
Brent is not bearish below $75. The market has already traded in most of the supply recovery expectations; if the general aviation recovery falls short of expectations, the rebound could be much faster than during the decline. Short positions are evened in batches; don't be greedy for the last chance. WTI is looking at the $72 level; if it breaks, it could still push down, but the room is limited.
Regarding $XAU, it's the most frustrating one.
The rise is due to falling oil prices→ lowering inflation expectations→ easing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. The decline in geopolitical risk itself is negative for gold, but it has been overshadowed by improved interest rate expectations. COMEX futures have surged above $4,300; don't chase at this level. After the agreement is officially implemented, the price will be pushed back, with 4150-4200 being the first pickup point.
For $BTC, the short-term trend is based on risk appetite, while the medium-term focus is on rate cut expectations.
BTC rebounded from 62,200 to above 64,000, with the market trading a "peace dividend." If oil prices continue to fall, inflation expectations further decline, and expectations for Fed rate cuts heat up, it would be a medium-term positive for BTC. But don't chase the high in the short term. Buy below 63,000 in batches, and wait for a pullback above 66,000 to reconsider. Iran has already accepted BTC as a toll settlement tool, and this sector is supported not only by macro logic but also by fundamentals.
What now?
Focus on two figures: the average daily number of ships operating through the strait (currently 8) and the recovery rate of crude oil transport volume (currently 15%). If these two numbers don't rise, all rebounds are just illusions.
Bullish on the left side below Brent 75, but don't go all out—split into three strokes. BTC synchronized, with a minimum position below 63,000, then a second entry at 61,000-62,000. Gold is waiting for a pullback, then acting below 4200.
Signing an agreement doesn't mean the ship can move. The market drank a glass for Heping, but the drink wasn't finished yet.#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
After Circle's impressive financial report, why is it betting all its weight on the self-developed L1 public chain #Arc? The logic of USDC's second growth curve has changed:
Breaking the distribution hijacking: No more working for others! Reclaim settlement dominance and more value accumulation through self-built networks.
USDC as native gas: every transaction is a rigid consumption of USDC, turning stablecoins into network "hard currency."
Directly addressing TradFi pain points: sub-second deterministic settlement + compliant privacy controls, seizing the high ground in B2B cross-border payments and foreign exchange clearing.
Transforming from a "token issuer" to an "on-chain financial OS," if Arc can squeeze into the institutional settlement pool, the market cap potential of USDC will be completely unlocked!#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
兄弟们，Circle Q2财报刚出，数据有喜有忧，但最值得关注的是Arc主网9月16日上线。今天聊聊我的看法。
我的判断
短期看，USDC流通量从Q1的770亿降至Q2的733亿，存量竞争激烈。但USDC一年市值增长80亿美元，合规优势正在显现。
中长期看，Arc是真正变量：贝莱德等传统巨头入场可能带来机构资金，Visa和万事达卡作为验证节点值得期待，ARC代币60%分配给建设者和用户，生态激励充足。
📌操作思路
关注Arc生态相关资产，RWA和支付赛道项目可能受益。Circle股价年内跌约20%，Arc主网上线前后可能有预期催化。稳定币赛道长期看好合规龙头。
风险提示：Arc主网上线前存在“买预期卖事实”风险，稳定币监管政策仍是最大变量，注意仓位管理。 KOSPI fell 5% intraday: AI hardware hasn't stalled, but high valuations are losing their tolerance
On August 6, South Korea's KOSPI index fell 5% intraday to 6,265.99 points. The gains driven by the AI and semiconductor sectors from the previous trading day were largely forgiven, with heavyweight stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading the decline. Reuters confirmed that Asian tech stocks have generally adjusted, with the Korean market becoming the center of this round of selling.
My judgment is that this is not like a sudden reversal in storage demand, but rather more like funds concentrating on reducing high-valuation AI positions after the earnings report is released. South Korean indices are highly dependent on a few chip leaders. If the market stops rewarding "good performance," the sell-off is easily amplified by the weight structure and passed on to risk appetite in US semiconductor stocks and BTC.
Focus on whether KOSPI can narrow its losses at the close; Whether Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are taking on increased volume; Will the US semiconductor index fall after the opening? Whether BTC can remain stable amid Asian risk asset adjustments.