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#SPCX SpaceX is undergoing a shift in its business foundation. Musk clearly stated in an internal meeting that AI revenue could surpass the combined revenue of all other businesses such as rocket launches, Starlink, and Dragon spacecraft as early as September, with AI becoming the core narrative of the company's growth.
Originally rocket-building aerospace companies, they are now investing large amounts of financing into the AI sector. AI business revenue growth is impressive, but the cost of computing infrastructure is huge. Even with rapid revenue expansion, the sector is still operating at a loss. The structure of capital expenditure has clearly changed, with AI taking up the vast majority of capital investment, and the proportion of capital in traditional aerospace business has relatively declined.
The aerospace sector has yet to escape the loss quagmire, with Starship R&D continuing to burn money. In Q2, the space segment posted an operating loss of about $540 million, with a large portion of the funds coming from investors.
This led to market fragmentation: bulls bet on the AI revenue explosion leading to valuation revaluation; Bears worry about endless capital consumption. Starship launch progress combined with the upcoming share lock-up further amplifies the SPCX long-short divide.
$Many people judge the market solely by whether BTC has hit new highs, but this is a misconception.
A truly complete bull market will have BTC stabilize, ETH strengthen, and altcoins erupting one after another.
The indicator is the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
- Exchange rate steadily rising: funds flow out of Bitcoin, willing to take risks, speculate on alts, and market heat is intensified;
- Exchange rate continues to fall: Funds only dare to hide in BTC for safe havens; there is no incremental growth in altcoins and even if BTC rises, it is a false prosperity.
Looking back at the mid-stages of previous bull markets, ETH/BTC will continue to rise for a long time.
In contrast, every rebound brings Bitcoin up, while altcoins struggle to keep up, resulting in poor market sustainability.
This indicates a lack of incremental funds in the market, with on-exchange funds competing with each other.
Even if BTC makes a rebound, if ETH/BTC doesn't cooperate, the potential is limited, so don't blindly go for knockoffs.
In the crypto world, Bitcoins always determine the fate of the market, while counterfeit assets determine the maximum returns.
As long as the market is alive, counterfeit companies don't necessarily make money; Once the market collapses, counterfeit stocks will suffer a brutal decline $BTC $ETH CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, in line with expectations; After the data release, BTC and ETH experienced sharp fluctuations, resulting in a double blow for both bulls and bears.
Data and market response
- CPI data: July CPI year-on-year was 3.4% (expected 3.4%, previous 3.5%); Core CPI year-on-year was 2.5% (expected 2.5%, previous 2.6%).
- Market Interpretation: Inflation continues to decline slightly, with no "over-the-balance" scenario, which is seen as neutral to positive and reduces the probability of a rate hike in September.
- Rate hike probability: After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September fell from about 51% to a range of 42%–48%.
- BTC trend: After the data release, it quickly dipped to around $64,000, then rebounded, finally closing at around $64,146.
- ETH Trend: After briefly touching 1910, it quickly pulled back, falling below 1900 and hitting a low of around 1880.
- Gold Trend: After a short-term plunge of about $30, it rebounded to about $20.
Why did there be a "double blowout" between bulls and bears?
- Highly consistent expectations: The market generally bets on 3.4%, but after the data release, there is no new direction, and funds quickly reverse their operations.
- Key Position Battle: BTC repeatedly traded between $63,000 and $65,000, with data triggering programmatic and leveraged funds for centralized liquidation.
- Geopolitics and sentiment: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and oil price fluctuations create uncertainty, intensifying the swing between risk aversion and chasing gains.
What should we do next?
- Short term: Easing rate hike expectations and falling US dollar and Treasury yields are more favorable for risk assets.
- Medium-term: Inflation remains above the 2% target, and the high interest rate environment may persist; If employment continues to deteriorate, the market may shift to "recession pricing," which is unfavorable for risk assets.
- Key Points to Watch:
- August 13: US July PPI.
- August 14: U.S. July retail sales.
- Late August: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, focusing on Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's policy statements $BTC $ETH $SOL On CPI night, the bulls staged a classic "front-start-delivery" scenario.
Stockpiling during the day, dumping at night. BTC surged from 63,163 in the morning all the way to 64,466, ETH shot from 1,856 to 1,927—before the data came out, sentiment surged first. But at 8:30, the CPI hit 3.4%, fully in line with expectations—lukewarm, no surprises. The market reversed by "selling the facts," BTC plunged straight to 63,470, wiping out the day's gains almost to zero; ETH retreated to 1892, giving back nearly half.
But there is a detail here that many people overlook.
Tonight's drop is essentially "debt repayment," not a "bearish turn." BTC's current price is 63,470, higher than today's low of 63,163; ETH1892 is $36 higher than the morning session of 1,856. In other words—the CPI gains have been paid off, but the trend bottom hasn't been broken. The momentum of three consecutive days of decline has temporarily stalled here.
The 63163 line hasn't broken yet, so the bears haven't won yet.
Tomorrow night's PPI will be the true touchstone.
· PPI remains moderate→ The logic of cooling inflation is closed. BTC stabilizes in the 63,000~64,500 range, waiting for Jackson Hole to give direction
· PPI rebound → 63,163 is highly unlikely to hold, so bears are increasing their positions
Key points to watch:
· BTC: Resistance above 64,000, lower order at 63,163
· ETH: Support at 1880, rebound threshold at 1900
Tonight was basically a wasted battle—the data gave no direction, and the market didn't pick a side. The original world was shaken, waiting for the next step on the gas.
$BTC $BEAT $ETH
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up 🌎 $BTC $ETH The real big boss: macro
Today, the biggest variable is no longer the candlestick chart, but the US inflation data.
After the latest data release, the US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year; BTC briefly retreated from around $64.5K to around $64K after the data release, as the market repriced expectations for the Fed's September policy.
This is the most exciting part of today:
📉 Inflation is higher than expected
→ Interest rate cut expectations cool
→ USD/US Treasury pressure
→ Risk assets under pressure
→ BTC may continue to be hammered
📈 Inflation was lower than expected
→ Rising expectations for rate cuts
→ Improved liquidity expectations
→ BTC gains rebound fuel 🚀
But the current market response is a bit awkward:
The CPI came out, but BTC did not take off immediately.$SNDK $XAU $MU Before the data release, US stocks were falling. The market generally feared that rising oil prices would push up inflation, forcing the Fed to reconsider rate hikes in September. This worry weighed heavily on the market, but after the CPI came out, all four indicators met expectations—no surprises or shocks. The worst scenario didn't happen. The bears ran off first, so the market naturally bounced back. What the market really traded wasn't how good the CPI was, but that nothing bad happened. In this environment, meeting expectations actually became an acceptable signal. But don't rush to call for a bull return The probability of a rate hike in October is still above 50%. Inflationary pressures haven't been fully relieved, and expectations for rate cuts haven't resurfaced. This rebound feels more like a mood recovery, not a trend reversal. Short-term relief, but the direction isn't decided yet. Don't get carried away in the rally. #JulyCPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings debut in succession. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up Market Analysis: CPI rose before CPI, then fell back after it — $BTC and $ETH played a game of "buying expectations, selling facts"
Tonight's trend clearly illustrates the phrase "all good news has been exhausted."
During the day, BTC climbed from 63,163 in the early morning to 64,466, up 1,300 points. ETH was even stronger, rising from 1,856 to 1,927, up $71. The market bet early on "soft data" ahead of CPI—the nonfarm payrolls have already been unexpectedly affected, and CPI is likely to cool down, so bulls are maxing out positions ahead of the data.
The data at 8:30 was released, fully in line with expectations. Neither hot nor cold, no surprises. Then the market reversed and sold off. BTC slid from 64,466 all the way to 63,470, giving up all the gains from the day. ETH fell from 1927 to 1892, losing nearly half of its gains.
This is the classic "buy expectations, sell facts." Bulls buy the "possibly below expectations" scenario before CPI, but after the data comes out, that imagination disappears—3.4% is 3.4%, no more, no surprise. The portion that has already risen too much is forfeited by profit-takers.
But don't rush to be bearish. BTC is now at 63,470, still 300 points away from today's early morning low of 63,163, with no new low. ETH1892, $36 higher than the morning's 1,856. In other words—tonight's drop is "making back the CPI gain," not a "breakdown drop." The three-day decline has not worsened at the CPI level.
Structurally, 63,163 remains the bottom line for this round of decline. If it doesn't break through tonight, the bears haven't fully controlled the market yet. Tomorrow night's PPI will be the next confirmation point. If PPI remains moderate, the chain of inflation cooling will be complete, and BTC will most likely stabilize between 63,000 and 64,500
Jackson Hole。 If PPI rebounds, 63,163 will be in danger.
Key levels: 63,163 below BTC is the bottom, and 64,000 above is the resistance level to be breached tonight. 1,880 below ETH is support, and 1,900 above is the level of tonight's decline.
That's it for tonight. CPI didn't set a direction, and the market didn't pick a side, just returned to the original shake.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up August 10$ETH Total spot ETF holdings continued to rise to 5,584,887.58 ETH, with a net increase of 1,996.03 ETH for the day. Since this was the first trading day of the new week, the cumulative net increase for the week temporarily stood at 1,996.03 ETH.
This is already a clear difference from last week's capital structure. Last week, the cumulative net increase in ETH ETFs reached 118,764.78 ETH, with four consecutive trading days from August 4 to August 7 increasing holdings by 23,284.69, 27,904.96, 43,872.12, and 29,736.44 ETH respectively. Although net inflows continued on August 10, the scale of 1,996 ETH has cooled significantly.
However, in the past seven trading days, the cumulative net increase was 117,242.81 ETH, showing a clear capital advantage. Since August, total holdings have increased by 120,759.78 ETH, a growth of about 2.21%, still significantly outperforming BTC's 0.84% over the same period.
ETH currently seems more like a slowdown after last week's consecutive large inflows, rather than a reversal in the capital trend. What really needs to be watched is the next few trading days. If the daily net inflow continues to drop from tens of thousands to thousands or even turns negative, it will confirm that this round of strong capital inflows is clearly fading. In the crypto world, Michael Thaler has long been regarded as the number one Bitcoin die-hard fan on the entire internet, and his famous motto, "Never sell your Bitcoin," has become the motto of countless believers.
Under Seller's leadership, MicroCe has spent over 226,500 bitcoins in recent years by issuing bonds and stocks with leverage, becoming the publicly traded company holding the most Bitcoin globally.
However, just recently, WeCe disclosed its latest capital management moves to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, revealing an extremely rare and subtle change: they decided to replenish the company's cash reserves by selling part of their Bitcoin and common shares.
Although Weice claims this is just a normal treasury asset restructuring, it has undoubtedly created a crack in the camp of believers.
The perpetual motion machine flywheel, praised by countless self-media outlets as an infinitely loopable "issuing bonds, buying coins, and leverage," finally hit the ceiling in the face of cold physical laws.
Here, you need to pay attention to the underlying operating logic of the Weice lever flywheel.
Weice's approach is actually very simple—it's called premium issuance arbitrage.
Because MicroCe holds a massive amount of spot assets, its stock MSTR on the secondary market generates a premium relative to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings.
Saylor uses this premium: whenever stocks rise, he issues bonds and new shares to raise dollars, then immediately buys all the dollars on the secondary market to buy Bitcoin.
Buying Bitcoin in turn stimulates the price to rise, thereby increasing the company's per-share value and attracting more traditional investors to rush to buy shares, creating higher premiums.
This self-fulfilling positive feedback loop has made Weice shine in the unilateral bull market over the past two years.
However, as long as this flywheel wants to keep running, it must rely on two hard conditions: the token price must keep rising, and secondary market investors must be willing to keep paying a high premium.
Once Bitcoin falls into a wide range of volatility—like bottoming out above $60,000 for several consecutive months—the physical limits of this leveraged perpetual motion machine are exposed.
To maintain its massive debt structure, WeCe needs to pay tens of millions of dollars in bond interest and operating costs annually.
When coin prices stagnate and stock premium rates fall, new financing channels are instantly blocked.
If you only go in and never out, the cash in your pocket will eventually be depleted by interest expenses.
Therefore, Weice's decision to sell a small portion of Bitcoin and stocks to raise funds and strengthen the company's financial safety buffer is actually a very rational defensive move.
It proves that in this world, no leverage can be nested infinitely.
Even a seemingly fanatical preacher like Thaler must bow and acknowledge the power of rules when faced with the company's cash flow survival measure.
Personally, I think this strategic adjustment can actually make WeCe more like a "living person."
Previously, MicroStrategy was like a suicide bomb tied to Bitcoin's price engine; once the price collapsed, massive debt liquidations would instantly tear it to pieces.
Now, they are beginning to learn to build cash buffers and use cashing out to smooth out leverage risks.
Although this shatters the myth of absolute faith of 'refusing to sell even if it dies,' it has greatly enhanced Weice's risk resistance during the long financial winter cycle.
A Weice who understands defense is far more reassuring to Wall Street than a Weice who only blindly calls for orders and leverages.
As you watch Weice's strategic shift and cash recovery, do you think Seller's faith is finally cracking and the leveraged flywheel is about to collapse, or do you believe it can survive the next cycle through rational defense?
Anyway, I think rules are cold, cash is king, and even the totem of faith must bow to the balance sheet.
#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial pools are diverging Re (RE) is currently trading around $RE 0.41892, consolidating sideways after a period of downward cooling.
* Moving Averages: The MA5 ($0.41252) and MA10 ($RE 0.40246) are curling upward below the current price, offering immediate support. However, the MA20 ($RE 0.43940) sits above as overhead resistance.
* Key Levels on Chart: RE hit a local low of $0.35720 in late July before rebounding, but it remains well below its recent surge peak of $0.68025.
Historical Ups and Downs
* All-Time Low: RE traded near its historic low around $0.357 – $0.360 during its recent consolidation phase in July.
* All-Time High: RE reached an all-time record peak of $1.08 – $1.09 earlier in its listing history.
* Recent Range: Over the last 30 days, RE has seen a drop of about 20%, but it is up nearly 9% over the past week as buyers attempt a recovery.
Price Predictions
Short-Term Prediction (Next Few Days to Weeks)
* Bullish Scenario: If RE breaks above resistance at the MA20 level near $0.4400, it could test the $0.5000 – $0.5500 zone.
* Bearish Scenario: If the price loses momentum and drops below $0.4000, expect a retest of strong support near $0.3570.
All-Time Long-Term Prediction
If the project expands its on-chain reinsurance ecosystem and gains broader market traction, RE's ultimate long-term peak in a major bull market could reach $1.50 – $2.50+. $CARDS is showing strong momentum.
Structure remains under control.
EP
0.14200 - 0.14450
TP
0.14800
0.15300
0.16000
SL
0.13750
Liquidity is building above the reclaimed reaction zone, with buyers defending structure after the recent expansion. As long as support holds, continuation toward higher liquidity remains the favored scenario.
Let’s go $CARDSFriends, tonight the US July CPI data is out. Let's talk about how this will affect the September rate hike and what it means for the crypto world. 1. What exactly is the situation of the July CPI? Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, down from 3.5% last month, marking the smallest increase since March. Month-on-month, it rose 0.1%, but in June it was -0.4%, but this time it returned to positive growth. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) fell to 2.5% year-on-year, down slightly from last month's 2.6%. Overall, the data fully met market expectations, with no surprises. Breaking it down, housing costs remain the main driver of inflation, contributing about two-thirds of the monthly CPI increase. Energy prices, however, continued to decline, with gasoline prices falling 2.9% month-on-month. However, airfare prices have risen sharply, increasing 2.2% month-on-month. 2. Will there be another rate hike in September? This is what everyone cares about most. Before the CPI release, the market's expectation for a rate hike in September was around 46%. After the data came out, rate hike expectations dropped to 38%-42%. CME's FedWatch tool shows a 52% probability of keeping rates unchanged in September and a 48% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Simply put: raising interest rates or not is roughly a 50-50 split. Why are you still so conflicted? Because 3.4% inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target. And the stubborn housing costs, combined with the uncertainty in the Middle East (the Strait of Hormuz is still closed), inflationAt this point in the AI market, the biggest watershed has appeared: in the past, the market traded about whether AI would explode. Right now, the market is trading on whether AI capital investment can truly translate into revenue and profit. CoreWeave (CRWV)'s latest financial report has sent a very important signal: demand for AI computing power has not significantly cooled. Q2 revenue reached about $2.58 billion, up 112% year-on-year, while the backlog of orders reached about $104 billion. Management stated that current computing power capacity remains in short supply. More importantly: the company not only did not slow down capital expenditures, but instead continued to expand its expansion plans. This highlights the industry's biggest concern—"Is AI infrastructure investment already nearing the top?" This has not yet been verified. But what the market truly focuses on is not just the growth of CRWV alone. Instead, it is the transmission of the entire AI industry chain. First benefit: HBM high-bandwidth memory. The demand for AI training and inference continues to rise, essentially requiring: more GPUs, higher bandwidth memory, and stronger storage capabilities. Therefore, HBM supply chains such as SK Hynix and Micron remain the most direct beneficiaries. Especially against the backdrop of rapidly growing demand for AI servers, HBM has become one of the most critical links in the entire industry chain. Layer 2: AI SSD vs. Storage - Here, you need to distinguish between them. AI data centers do boost demand for enterprise-grade SSDs, but that doesn't mean all storage companies will benefit in tandem. HBM belongs to a high-barrier, high-certainty track白方刚在棋盘中央投下一枚象，直指h7兵——标普500收于历史新高，八千点的方阵已在远方的地平线列队。JPMorgan把年终目标从7800提至8000，又向上修正了2026-27的盈利谱系，这不是随手一推的随手棋，而是中局里精心计算的子力协调：第二季度财报是坚实的中心兵，AI投资开始产生真实的现金流与营收，那意味着这枚兵不再是虚张声势的弃子，而是拥有升变前景的通路兵。九月加息压力如黑方在王翼制造兑子简化，被他们视作减轻压力的兑换机会而非威胁。
但我必须提醒你，残局库里的数据异常刺眼：Shiller CAPE超过40倍，这个指标像一枚深埋在中局的暗雷。高位棋手谁不记得，当估值比均值高出两个标准差，棋钟上剩下的时间往往比局面优势更残酷。Fundstrat的Tom Lee同样指向8000，机构乐观情绪蔚然成风，几乎整个大厅的棋手都在同一侧易位，这恰恰是我最警惕的局面——当所有人的计划都押在同一侧的结构性弃子时，黑方在中路反击的路线反而愈发清晰。
盈利增长能否接住AI资本开支的猛烈炮火？估值扩张是否正在透支未来二十步的稳定性？政策转向的阴影像一枚悬在g7格的孤马，随时可以跃入白方的后翼空档。这不是一个简单的问题是——棋盘上永远没有简单的问题，只有未被算清的战术组合。真正的特级大师从不问“能否继续涨”，而是问“当第一波攻击失利后，我这套体系还有没有第二套、第三套作战计划去应对估值与现金流之间的脱节”。
JPMorgan的8000分是一步有力的着法，市场用封盘后突破开盘价来回应。但注意，它击中的是h7兵而不是王，是一次漂亮的理论验证而非终局。八千点是一盘新棋的开局，不是旧局的胜利收尾。你可以记录这步棋，然后向裁判示意，继续走向更复杂的残局。在那里，4开头的CAPE会像一只沉默的象，沿对角线巡视着每一个虚高的筹码。 #sp500eyes8000Bitcoin LTH aNUPL turned negative: entering a bottoming phase, but the final capitulation is not yet complete
As Bitcoin fell -50% from its peak, the Long-Term Holder Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (LTH aNUPL) indicator has entered negative territory below the market average.
Long-term holder adjustment NUPL (LTH aNUPL): tracks the unrealized P&L status of long-term investors (LTH) holding coins for more than 155 days, used to assess the financial pressure on long-term funds and the bottoming stage.
Long-term funds enter loss territory: beyond speculative short-term liquidity, even the most confident long-term holders are suffering losses, which fits the pattern of a large cycle bottom
Not reached the "Depression" stage: Unlike past macro bottoms where indicators were deeply negative, it has not yet reached a state of complete emotional and financial exhaustion (surrender).
Two scenarios: either triggering a final capitulation collapse that pushes LTH to extremes, or prematurely completing the bottom through institutional demand absorption, which will be a critical watershed
The market has entered a typical macro bottom structure, but no full signals of capitulation have yet to appear. It is important to watch whether LTH aNUPL rebounds to near zero and raises the lows again.With the July CPI arrival, the Fed's logic for rate cuts in September is beginning to change
This time, the inflation data did not surprise the market, but the signals it reveals are more important than simple changes in rate cut expectations
US July CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, overall in line with expectations. Energy prices fell 1.5% month-on-month, helping overall inflation continue to cool, but housing costs remained the main source of pressure, accounting for most of the month's gains.
Data shows that U.S. inflation is indeed slowly declining, but it is still far from the Fed's ideal target. In particular, core services inflation remains elevated, which is why policymakers are hesitant to pivot quickly.
Combined with previous employment data changes, nonfarm payrolls in July unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while May and June employment figures were sharply revised downward, indicating growing signs of economic cooldown. The current issue is no longer whether the economy is under pressure, but whether the pace of inflation decline can give the Fed enough confidence.
My view is that expectations for a rate cut in September are heating up, but it's not yet a certainty.
This CPI seems to open a door for the Fed, rather than simply pressing the confirmation button. Subsequent PPI, employment data, and core service price performance will all influence the final decision.
If inflation continues to ease moderately in the coming months while employment continues to cool but does not deteriorate rapidly, the Fed may choose to adjust its policy direction to provide more support for the economy.
However, if housing and service inflation reappears, the pace of policy shifts may still slow down.
For BTC, US stocks, and gold, what truly matters is not the phrase "interest rate cuts are coming," but whether the funding environment has entered a phase of continuous improvement.
The biggest change in this cycle is shifting from focusing on "when inflation will end" to observing "whether the economy can achieve a soft landing."
The July CPI is just one of the key points; the data in the coming months will determine whether the Fed is starting a new cycle or maintaining patience.
$DOS $KAITO $BTC
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? Taking into account tonight's August nonfarm payroll and CPI outlook for the second half of the year,
On the contrary, I think the most noteworthy thing in the second half of the year isn't "all coins rising at once," but rather:
$BTC → $ETH → Mainstream public chains → AI/RWA/DeFi → Small market cap, high beta
Funds are most likely seeking returns in this order.
First stage: August to September
Core Keywords:
Macro pricing + $BTC absorbing liquidity.
If CPI remains moderate, the labor market keeps weakening, and the Fed does not further strengthen rate hike expectations, BTC may be the first to complete a trend correction.
At this stage, I won't chase small coins excessively.
Second stage: September to October
If ETH can truly rise above the 1960–2000 range, the market may see a clear decline in BTC Dominance + $ETH$BTC recovery.
This is the stage when the knockoff market is truly worth observing.
Especially:
$ETH, $SOL, $TAO, and DeFi/RWA projects with real on-chain activity.
Macro data research also shows that changes in CPI expectations provide certain predictive information for the volatility of assets like $ETH and $SOL, indicating that macro liquidity has a more direct impact on altcoins than many imagine.
Third stage: October to December
If you encounter the following:
Inflation continues to decline + Fed policy is no longer hawkish + ETFs continue to absorb spot + stablecoin supply expansion + $BTC break previous highs
Only then can the market truly enter the so-called Altseason.
Moreover, I am more optimistic about a "structural knockoff season," not the kind of junk coin rally seen in 2021.
In the second half of the year, I will focus on these areas
First tier: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL
They are essentially liquidity anchors for the entire market.
Second tier: $TAO, $LINK, $AAVE, $ONDO
The focus is not on the story, but on whether AI, oracles, DeFi, and RWA sectors have real capital and on-chain demand.
Third tier: high-beta small-cap coins
Previously focused on $BICO, $ZBT, $ALLO, $SENSO, $SCORE, $BSB, $RIVER, etc., can enter the observation pool, but must simultaneously improve trading volume, OI, funding rate, on-chain activity, and coin holding concentration.
Personal views on the situation in the second half of the year:
Volatility is relatively high, with the highest probability.
$BTC is responsible for stabilizing the market; $ETH starts catching up, followed by funds spreading into $SOL, AI, RWA, and DeFi.
Personal opinion and does not constitute any advice.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? The entire industry is watching the reflection of the glass curtain wall when presenting plans; what really needs to be looked at is the geotechnical report on the third basement level. Last week, the $1.1 billion inflow into the US spot market was indeed like a truckload of steel beams steadily delivered by a tower crane—but the supervisory log notes were glaring: on August 10, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 91 million, and this load-bearing side pillar showed early circumferential contraction cracks. The Ethereum ETF barely had a net inflow of 5.3 million, but at best, several meters of fresh air pipes were laid in the duct wells, and even insulation cotton for window sill walls couldn't be gathered, making it impossible to verify the load of the main structure.
The dump trucks on the chain are the real main construction lines. One whale transported 7,513 BTC in three weeks; Another miner whale dumped 6,494 BTC into centralized trading in twenty days. This isn't civilized construction on site; it's earth being continuously excavated and replaced under the cap. No matter how shiny the scaffolding built by ETF funds, it can't stop the foundation's bearing capacity characteristic values from being devalued day by day. If you use the thickness of curtain wall aluminum panels to deduce the safety rating of a steel-concrete core tube, you won't pass the drawing review stage—the load combination can't be counted, renderings can only be used for bidding, not for completion.
The essence of this game is that two structural systems compete for loads on the same site. On one side is the ETF, a prefabricated prestressed beam, which uses financial instruments to pre-attach demand to tower cranes; On the other side, on-chain miners and whales use cast-in-place aggregate, each weighing and being dropped to the floor one by one. Where do you leave the seismic joints? The design institute's standard answer is that the wider the joint, the safer, but the market only gives you one three-centimeter expansion joint. Once the joint is leaked through, the exterior wall stone starts to make strange noises at night.
CPI is the static level next to the tower crane; the moment the reading crosses the warning value, the canopy canopy, glass rib nodes, and temporary diagonal braces all switch to standby mode. When risk appetite is downgraded from design strength to allowable stress, no matter how beautiful the facade depth is, it's just time-lapse photography stored on the rendering company's server.
So don't repeat the mantra "the four-year cycle foundation pit has already bottomed out." Structural engineers know that the data from the water level observation well is not yet stable, and the quicksand has not stopped; any "bottoming" is only the elevation of the temporary enclosure structure. Whether the four red seals for survey, design, construction, and supervision on the foundation trench inspection report can be gathered depends on every drop hammer inspection sold on the chain and the lateral load sampling records every second in the CPI wind tunnel test. The tower crane can be taken out at any time, but the date repeatedly smeared on the rebar rebar sample form will not automatically become a signature column on the completion acceptance filing form #btcethetfflowsdiverge7月CPI符合预期后宏观资产维持宽幅震荡态势。核心CPI停留于2.5%且住房通胀占据三分之二涨幅，表明结构性价格粘性尚存，限制了宽松预期定价。若后续8月PPI与核心CPI数据继续走软，风险偏好修复将推动资金重新回流高估值资产。一旦8月通胀数据出现二次抬头拉升加息概率，全球风险资产将面临仓位出清与估值回调重压。后续需密切观测8月PPI公布当日美债收益率与美元指数的实时变动情况。
#Anthropic加快IPO进程，AI估值进入验证期 #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果，美伊施压升级Let me clarify the biggest misconception in the current market: don't fantasize about a full knockoff bull market.
Nowadays, liquidity is very demanding, and the knockoff season is no longer a broad-sweeping rally.
BTC remains the market chassis, but funds only rotate back and forth across various tracks; they do not buy all the altcoins simultaneously.
Many L1 public chains have entered a recovery phase, but a large number of public chains have yet to gain capital favor and require continuous validation of demand.
Currently, the DeFi and RWA sectors are performing better overall; The AI sector is polarized and highly popular, but many funds have already chosen to cash in.
MEME coins can only be used as sentiment indicators; pulse surges do not indicate sustainability.
Remember one key rule of judgment:
The first round of rally was merely to attract attention. The real strength depends on their performance after the rally.
Sustained buying interest and stable trading volume during pullbacks are reliable targets; Once the hype fades, trading volume shrinks rapidly, and the market can easily be short-lived. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another $BABY is testing a major reaction zone.
Structure remains under heavy pressure.
EP
0.01070 - 0.01095
TP
0.01130
0.01180
0.01240
SL
0.01030
Liquidity is building above the reaction zone, but buyers need to reclaim structure after the recent sharp decline. As long as support holds and the reclaim is confirmed, continuation toward higher liquidity remains the favored scenario.
Let’s go $BABYETF资金冰火分化！机构正在从BTC调仓ETH
一、核心数据速览
$BTC：24h净流出265枚（1697万美元），7日累计净流入4711枚（3.01亿美元）
$ETH：24h净流入3823枚（728万美元），7日累计净流入89742枚（1.71亿美元）
二、单日流出≠机构看空BTC
CPI落地前避险止盈是主因。短期投机机构兑现短线利润，但周度3亿资金持续进场，长线配置资金并未撤离，单日流出只是短期调仓噪音，不存在趋势性出逃。
三、资金结构性轮动：机构加码以太坊
ETH全天、全周同步吸金，反映机构配置逻辑切换：
1. BTC定位数字黄金，宏观不确定性下资金阶段性减仓避险；
2. ETH承载质押、DeFi、RWA多重叙事，机构看好长期应用价值，持续加仓布局。
四、市场信号解读
1. 存量博弈特征明显：资金没有流出加密赛道，仅在两大主流之间内部轮换；
2. 中期底盘稳固：BTC周度大额流入托底大盘，不存在深度走熊基础；
3. ETH增量预期更强：资金提前押注生态叙事估值修复，走势韧性将持续强于BTC。
⚠️仅资金数据复盘，不构成投资建议$84.6M in short liquidations sit less than 4% above where $BTC is trading right now. That's the part of this hyperliquid standoff that gets buried under the headline framing. Yes, short notional outweighs long notional by roughly 60%, four whale addresses are carrying $249.4m in short exposure against two addresses holding $99m long. And yes, btc is down 20.6% over 90 days while the s&p climbed 4.8% and euro stoxx put up 12.5%. on paper that reads as bears in control. But look at where the liqu$BTC US July core CPI data was quite moderate, rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, the lowest in over three years
Overall CPI also met expectations. The pressure for the Fed's rate hike in September was less intense, but BTC instead fell from around 64,500 to around 63,300. This data matched what people had guessed a few days ago—a case of all the good news being exhausted and short-term funds fleeing on the news—a classic case of buying and expecting to sell
Whether there will be further rate hikes depends on next month's employment and inflation data, as well as what Walsh says at the Jackson Hole annual meeting at the end of the month. For now, it's just a temporary relief, and the direction of $ETH remains unclear $BTC
Interesting.
The past six CPI data releases have all followed the same exact pattern.
Bitcoin has consistently reversed direction shortly after each of these events.
This time around, we saw price sell off right before CPI, which would suggest that we could see another move to the upside over the coming days if this pattern continues.
Of course, six occurrences are nowhere near enough to guarantee that the same thing happens again.
But considering how consistently this has played out over the past few months, I definitely think it’s something worth paying attention to.
#CPIInLineFedWatch #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid This is insane.
$BTC is sitting between two enormous liquidity magnets.
$64.5K-$67K above.
$61K-$63K below.
We're still trapped inside the range.
I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if we see both sides swept before the real move begins.$AEVO is testing a key reaction zone.
Structure remains under pressure.
EP
0.01930 - 0.01960
TP
0.02020
0.02100
0.02200
SL
0.01870
Liquidity is building above the reaction zone, with buyers attempting to stabilize structure after the recent sweep. As long as support holds and price confirms the reclaim, continuation toward higher liquidity remains the favored scenario.
Let’s go $AEVO[Pharaoh's Market Watch] My inbox exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh, with CPI settled, will there still be a rate hike in September? Pharaoh says directly, CPI met expectations, the door to a September rate hike is half closed but not locked yet. The data on August 12 was indeed stable: year-on-year 3.4%, core 2.5%, all hitting the target. Coupled with negative non-farm payroll growth, the market immediately lowered the probability of a September rate hike to 42%-48%. There are two key points#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
Employment collapsed by 23,000, CPI is still sticky at 3.4%, and housing costs swallowed two-thirds of the monthly increase — the Federal Reserve is now like a fish on a hot grill.
The market is self-congratulating on "meeting expectations," but the real horror story is "job losses" colliding with "stubborn core inflation." Last year Powell vowed to "painfully suppress inflation," but with only a few months left until the election, would he really dare let unemployment soar to achieve that last 0.4% inflation target? Absolutely not. September will 100% remain on hold, but this is by no means good news; it’s a clear sign of "stagflation" — no rate hikes because the economy can’t take it, no cuts because inflation is still bleeding.
So who’s paying now? Those holding the seven giants of US stocks. Rates stay put, but earnings forecasts will be downgraded, and funds will shift from the overvalued Nasdaq to energy and consumer staples. This high-to-low rotation has just begun.
Operational advice: don’t touch Nasdaq futures. If next week’s PPI data is below expectations, go long on gold (GLD) directly, with a stop loss set two ticks below the 230-day moving average. When this macro wind blows, only physical assets can hold up.
With the data laid out like this, still dreaming of a soft landing? Damn, this money is hot to handle, I’m only looking at commodities. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
1. Real-time data: July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, core CPI was 2.5%, fully in line with expectations; CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped to 42%, with BTC showing a slight short-term rebound.
2. Underlying logic: Continued cooling inflation combined with weakening employment has greatly reduced the urgency of rate hikes, but inflation remains above the 2% target, making it more likely that rates will remain unchanged in September.
3. Personal Approach: Macro pressure will ease slightly; do not blindly chase gains, remain cautious, and other clear trends, patiently await the return of the bull market in the long term.
$SNDK
$DOGE
These represent only personal views and do not constitute investment adviceKey Review of 2026 Q2 US Stock Financial Reports (AI Computing Power Main Theme)
This quarter, US stocks showed clear divergence: upstream chip and hardware performance exploded, cloud giants were spending capital frantically, profits were highly concentrated, and market attention shifted from "revenue growth" to capital expenditure, free cash flow, and earnings realization.
1. Overall Overview of the Market
S&P 500's Q2 EPS year-over-year significantly exceeded expectations, with 64% of companies earning better earnings.
• Overall EPS was about 45% year-on-year, with a 26% growth after excluding one-time equity investment gains.
• Highly concentrated earnings: The AI infrastructure industry chain contributes about one-third of the S&P 500's profit growth, with Google, Amazon, Micron, and Nvidia being the largest contributors, with a few leading companies driving index growth.
• Contradiction: AI demand is strong, but major companies continue to increase capital expenditures, putting pressure on some giants' free cash flow, and the market is beginning to worry about the investment return cycle.
2. Key Points of Core Company Financial Reports
1. Google Alphabet (GOOG)
• Q2 revenue was $119.8 billion, +24% year-on-year; Cloud business was $24.77 billion, +82% year-on-year, with cloud backlog orders exceeding $500 billion, and Gemini Enterprise Edition has high penetration.
• The sharp increase in net profit was mainly due to unrealized gains from equity investments, which are non-operating income; Full-year capital expenditure was raised to $195-205 billion, with negative free cash flow for the quarter.
• Market concerns: massive infrastructure investment squeezes cash flow in the short term, causing stock prices to pull back after earnings reports.
2. NVIDIA NVDA
• Data center business continues to grow rapidly, with strong demand for AI chips;
• Market focus: HBM supply constraints, next-generation chip iterations, changes in customer inventory;
• There was a slight reduction in holdings this quarter, and institutions have begun to consider whether growth can be maintained.
3、AMD
• Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, +50% year-on-year, exceeding expectations; Data center business was $6.7 billion, +107% year-on-year, accounting for 58% of total revenue.
• Both revenue and profit met targets, but Q3 guidance did not meet aggressive market expectations. The sharp drop in after-hours earnings reflects that the stock price had already been fully optimistic about price-in beforehand.
4. Intel (INTC).
• Q2 revenue was $16.13 billion, +25% year-on-year, the strongest quarterly growth in nearly 15 years; Data center AI business was +59% year-on-year, becoming the main growth driver.
• Q3 guidance beats expectations, with a sharp rise in after-hours trading; However, the market remains cautious: gross margin recovery, foundry business input-output ratio, and AI chip competitiveness.
5. TSMC (TSM).
• Q2 revenue was $40.2 billion, +36% year-on-year; Net profit +77.4% year-on-year, a record high; AI high-performance computing accounted for 66% of total revenue.
• Raising full-year revenue growth to just above 40%; Capital expenditure raised to $60–64 billion, additional investment in Arizona, USA, optimistic about AI demand continuing into 2030.
• Executives openly expressed envy of the extremely high gross margins of memory chips, reflecting clear profit divergence within the industry.
6. Micron MU (Storage)
• AI drives explosive demand for HBM, with storage volume and price rising simultaneously, and gross margins surging significantly;
• Core risk: Expanding capacity requires huge capital expenditures; Storage shortages persist, only able to meet some customer needs, with long-term contracts signed and locked in for years.
7. Broadcom AVGO, Mywell MRVL
• Broadcom: AI network chip and switch business is booming;
• Mywell: Server communication chips benefited from the surge in AI server volume, becoming a key institutional increase this quarter.
3. Key Core Signals in This Quarter's Financial Report
1. The industrial chain is clearly hot and cold
Upstream chips (GPU, CPU, HBM storage, optical communications) have fully delivered on their performance; Cloud vendors saw revenue growth, but capital expenditures surged, eroding free cash flow; Traditional consumer electronics segments showed sluggish growth.
2. Market focus shifts
No longer focusing solely on revenue and profit growth; Capital expenditure, free cash flow, order visibility, and gross margin have become the core drivers of stock prices. Companies with higher-than-expected financial reports tend to fall more easily than expected.
3. AI demand is highly certain, but supply remains the bottleneck
TSMC, Micron, and Intel all mentioned tight capacity, constraints on HBM and advanced process capacity, long expansion cycles, supply not keeping up with demand, and supporting chip prices and gross margins.
4. Profit concentration risk
Index earnings heavily depend on a handful of AI hardware giants, and if these companies' growth slows, it will put significant pressure on the broader market.
4. Key Indicators for Future Observation
1. Q3 guidance from major companies to see if AI business growth slows down;
2. Capital expenditure plan and observation of free cash flow recovery;
3. Progress of capacity release for HBM and advanced process processes;
4. Are there signs of slowing capital expenditure among downstream cloud providers? $BTC realized profits are collapsing while realized losses keep expanding
Every previous cross of these (2015, 2018, 2022) became a macro bottom
We’re approaching that zone again#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
A brief discussion on the CPI implementation: The Fed's decision in September remains undecided
All July CPI figures met market consensus expectations, with no unexpected upward shocks. Overall and core inflation both declined slightly year-on-year, while falling energy prices helped the overall readings look positive. But peeling back the surface data reveals structural problems: housing alone consumed two-thirds of the month's CPI increase. Rent and housing inflation remain very sticky, which is the resistance to inflation's "last mile."
Looking at the nonfarm payrolls and CPI reports side by side, the situation becomes very delicate.
On one hand, employment started to cool, with negative nonfarm growth in July, and previous monthly employment data was revised downward; On the other hand, although inflation has eased, the 2.5% core CPI is still some distance from the Fed's 2% target and has not fully escaped.
So now the Fed finds itself in a typical dilemma:
Cooling employment gives it a reason to pause rate hikes; But inflation hasn't reached its target yet, and it can't switch to easing directly.
Many traders have the illusion that if CPI meets expectations and the nonfarm payrolls are poor, then there will definitely be no rate hikes in September. But in reality, the interest rate market has not given a one-sided conclusion. After the CPI is released, the probability of a rate hike in September has declined, but it hasn't dropped to zero directly. This shows that institutional funds see clearly: a single qualified monthly data is not enough to reassure the Fed.
There are two main reasons why we cannot simply decide "there will definitely be no rate hike in September" now.
First, housing inflation is a lagging indicator. Currently, the main drag on CPI is housing costs. Market rents are actually easing, but the pace of gradually transmitting CPI data is very slow. As long as housing inflation remains high, core inflation will struggle to quickly reach 2%. As long as the root of structural inflation is not resolved, hawkish Fed members will still have arguments to maintain a tough stance.
Second, the July CPI is just a monthly report. Before the September policy meeting, there are still a series of major data points: August PPI, August Nonfarm Payrolls, and August CPI. July is just passing the test, but that doesn't mean there won't be a rebound in the following months. The Fed won't lock in its policy path based solely on a single month's data; it looks at a set of trends, not just individual monthly results.
Next, we can deduce three real-world paths:
Path 1: Maintain rates unchanged in September (relatively most probable)
Scenario conditions: No rebound in PPI or August CPI, continued mild weakening in employment, and no signs of renewed overheating.
Logic: Employment has already signaled a cooling down, and inflation has not worsened further. The Fed chooses to wait and see, waiting for more data to confirm the trend. It neither tightens further nor will it immediately discuss rate cuts. It is a neutral stance of "neither hawkish nor dovish."
Corresponding asset impact: US Treasury yields and the US dollar are weak, creating a relatively favorable environment for US growth sectors, BTC, and ETH.
Path 2: A 25bp hike in September (still possible, not completely ruled out)
Scenario: PPI rebound, core CPI rebounds in August, services inflation heats up again.
Logic: Even if employment weakens, if inflation rises again, the option of "precautionary rate hikes" remains open. The Fed's primary mission is to bring inflation back to 2%. It can accept moderate employment cooling but cannot tolerate repeated rebounds in inflation.
Corresponding asset impact: The dollar and US Treasury yields have surged, putting pressure on global risk assets and triggering a valuation correction.
Path Three: Hold the position in September, but release a hawkish stance
This is a scenario that retail investors easily overlook: no interest rate hikes, but tough speeches clearly signaling "no victory yet, no ruling out further increases." In other words, "actions do not tighten, verbal pressure remains high." In such an environment, it is difficult for the market to emerge from a smooth bull market and is highly likely to fluctuate repeatedly.
The most important reminder for ordinary traders:
Don't interpret "CPI meets expectations" as a signal of positive frenzy.
"Meeting expectations" simply means no new negative news, not strong bullishness. It eliminates the worst kind of black swan but does not directly open the door to easing.
The macro logic is now very clear: slowing employment is just a way for the Fed to "not raise rates"; while sustained and steady inflation falling toward 2% is the real prerequisite for risk assets to strengthen.
The July data is only the first hurdle; the real test is still in the PPI and August series of data. Before the September interest rate meeting, the macro window period is not yet over, and the asset volatility pattern is unlikely to end immediately, making it unsuitable to heavily bet on one-sided positions.#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
大家好，我是马哥，CPI数据出来了，不好不坏。
整体CPI从3.5%降到3.4%，核心从2.6%降到2.5%，跟市场预期的完全一样。说人话就是既没惊喜也没惊吓，正好打在预期上。
这次通胀能下来，主要靠油价降了，能源价格环比跌了1.5%，把整体数据拉低了。但住房成本还是硬得很，贡献了三分之二的涨幅，这根刺还没完全拔干净。
非农已经爆冷了，CPI又没出幺蛾子，9月加息的必要性确实弱了。但通胀还是高于2%，降息也还早着呢。
对币圈来说，这个数据就是“松了一口气”级别，不是“起飞”级别。所以大饼网上查根小针就没动静了，毕竟只是符合预期，不是超预期。
我的看法很简单，CPI没给加息添柴，也没给降息点火。短期情绪会松一松，但真正的方向还需要后面PPI和就业数据来确认。不过最近的消息面都是雷声大雨点小，还不如一发导弹来的快，也不用太期待，做好自己的就好了，你们觉得呢？
$BTC $BEAT $SOL 🚨 CRYPTO’S TWO BIGGEST NARRATIVES ARE EVOLVING The market is putting both Bitcoin’s scarcity story and Ethereum’s deflation thesis to the test. 🟠 Bitcoin: Scarcity alone isn’t enough to drive price. While the halving limits supply, BTC is still heavily influenced by Fed policy, liquidity, ETF flows, interest rates, and overall market sentiment. 🔵 Ethereum: The “ultrasound money” narrative is also changing. As Layer-2 adoption grows, more activity moves off the main chain, reducing fees and poNo one wants $55, $60 is scrambling to buy—the familiar script is back.
$HYPE Dropped from 76 to 52, a 30% drop. Core contributors unlocked nearly 10 million tokens on August 6, HyperLabs then turned and dumped 433,000 tokens through Flowdesk to OKX and Bybit. Even 1 billion buybacks couldn't stop the drop, short sellers celebrated, FUD was everywhere
And then? Bounce back from 52 to 56. What are the feelings of those who cut their losses at 52 now?
Here are a few hard facts
Hyperliquid's open interest reached a record high of $11 billion, and its global perpetual contract market share rose from 7% in May to 9%. In Q2, HYPE rose 79%, while BTC fell 14% over the same period. RWA trading volume accounted for 52% of the platform's total, surpassing crypto contracts for the first time—Wall Street traders traded Nvidia leveraged contracts on Hyperliquid at 2 a.m. on weekends
97% of transaction fees directly repurchased HYPE. Protocol revenue has surpassed $1 billion. This is not air coins, but a money printing machine—except the money is temporarily diverted by HIP-3
The whale is also making a move
On August 3, a whale withdrew 725,000 HYPE from Bybit, OKX, and Gate, directly staking them on Hyperliquid, valued at $39.67 million. Another whale held 1.38 million long HYPE positions, holding out for eight months without closing the profit, with a floating profit of $18.8 million. These people are not here to trade short-term
To put it plainly—trading volume is soaring, protocols are making money, and whales are locking positions. The decline in income is the growing pain of the HIP-3 mechanism adjustment, not a collapse in fundamentals. If the 52-dollar price hasn't even fallen below 52, it means someone is holding the bottom tightly
My judgment: bullish
Hold your ground at 57 and look for 60; if 60 breaks out, look for 65-70. Below 52 is a golden pit—but you may never see it again
For trading, I chose to build positions in batches between 54-56, set stop-loss below 52, first target 60, and after a breakout, aim for 65-70#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? Everyone, tonight's CPI data is out, overall in line with expectations—no surprises or alarms.
US July CPI fell from 3.5% year-on-year to 3.4%, core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, and core CPI monthly was 0.2%, all within market expectations. Energy prices fell 1.5% month-on-month, driving overall inflation down, but housing costs still contributed about two-thirds of the month's CPI increase. Inflationary pressures are easing, but not gone.
For the Fed's judgment in September, this data itself does not provide a clear signal. The nonfarm payroll has unexpectedly turned negative, and now that CPI is in line with expectations, the combined effect will further reduce the need for further rate hikes in September. But CPI is still at 3.4%, far from the 2% target, and the Fed cannot immediately switch to easing just because of a data that meets expectations. Therefore, the market will now enter a wait-and-see period, waiting for more data to confirm the direction.
For BTC, this data means there are no new negative news or better-than-expected positives. The market may react slightly upward because rate cut expectations remain, but a one-sided surge is unlikely. This level is still a volatile pattern; the key is whether the upcoming PPI and employment data can further support the logic of holding the position.
My view is that the probability of the Fed holding steady in September is increasing, but not to the point where it can be confirmed. The market's direction will depend on more data to emerge. At this level, treat it as a rebound for now, and increase positions once the Fed makes a clear statement. What do you all think about the direction for September? Let's discuss in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading tonight $BTC $ETH KAITO/USDT Short Outlook
Current Price: $KAITO 0.4636 (-26.64%)
Key Support Zone: $0.40 – $0.45
Key Resistance Zone: $0.60 – $0.65
Summary
Short-Term: KAITO is experiencing a sharp pullback from its peak of $1.3900 toward the $0.46 support area. Expect high volatility near $0.40–$0.45 as heavy selling volume absorbs.
Potential Bounce: If buyers hold the $0.40 level, look for a quick relief bounce back up toward $0.60–$0.63.#CPIInLineFedWatch #OKXTraderVoices 现在不是追涨的时候，是等牌局亮底牌的时候。 周三CPI这颗定时炸弹还没拆，你敢把仓位全押一边吗？ 这几天SK Hynix美股夜盘涨了4.7%，逆着大盘走，有人截图来问我：这波存储行情你上了没，现在还能不能追。说实话，我基本是空仓看完这波拉升的，手没动，心确实痒了一下。 错过的不甘心是真的，但我更清楚一件事：这周CPI数据一出，整个棋盘都可能翻面。在变量落地前，把全部筹码压向单一方向，是用纪律去换刺激，这笔账不划算。 我亏钱从来不是因为赚得少，是因为手痒乱动。 对BTC我也是同样的态度——宁可错过一段拉升，也不愿意在一个二元事件前裸奔。等待不是消极，是这行里最被低估的技术活。 资金偏好其实已经给出了信号。存储板块逆势走强，说明市场在抢跑AI叙事，但CPI若超预期，这类高弹性品种回撤起来也最凶。热钱现在不是没方向，是方向感太强，强到有点危险。 我的理解是，当下资金更愿意为确定性支付溢价，而非为想象力买单。追涨的人看的是空间，等数据的人守的是下限。 - 偏多路径：若CPI降温，风险偏好修复，存储和AI叙事可能继续领跑，BTC也会跟着情绪抬升 - 潜在风险：若通胀反弹，高beta品种会被率先抛After today's CPI news came out, it was actually quite interesting.
On one side,
According to Bank of America data,
The weekly increase in US stock holdings by hedge fund clients,
This has already reached a new high since 2008.
Meanwhile,
Gold continues to climb.
Meanwhile,
$SNDK
In one day, it dropped by nearly 9%.
This indicates that the market is currently showing an interesting picture:
Risk assets are being fought over.
Safe-haven assets are also being bought.
The money didn't stop.
It's just that people are crowding in different directions at the same time.
Let's take a look first:
$SNDK
Current Price:
1379.60
24 hours:
+8.71%
Intraday High:
1388.60
This four-hour rebound,
It is already very obvious.
The previous low was as low as 972.00
After that, the price gradually started to go up.
Now it has regained near 1380.
And here comes the most crucial part.
EMA144：1349.61
EMA169：1377.16
Now the price has re-reached near the two moving averages,
And I'm trying to wear it up.
This is not an ordinary small rebound.
If we can truly stand firm here,
The four-hour structure begins to change.
Now let's look at kinetic energy.
DIF：22.19
DEA：7.72
MACD：28.94
Clearly upward.
Having read this far,
You need to pay attention.
SNDK's current problems,
No longer the same:
"Strong?"
Strong.
Very strong.
The real question is:
Can we still chase this position directly?
Because the RSI has surged to this level,
Even if the trend continues upward,
There could also be a sharp pullback at any time in between.
So next, what I want to see even more:
Can the 1375–1400 segment truly hold its ground?
Stand firm,
Only after that will you have the right to keep looking up.
Unable to stand steadily,
Today's big rally,
It is very likely to enter a high-level consolidation first.
Then look at today's more important news.
According to Bank of America data,
Hedge fund clients are still buying US stocks.
And the weekly buying momentum,
Directly set a new benchmark:
This is the highest since 2008.
This signal is very straightforward.
Funds are not currently fleeing risk assets on a large scale.
Instead, they are actively increasing their holdings.
This is also why,
Things like SNDK, which had dropped deeply earlier,
Once repairs begin,
Short-term elasticity will be very large.
Because once market sentiment warms up,
The first to move,
Often, these are the kinds of stocks that were heavily suppressed in the early stages.
But interestingly,
Funds are buying stocks.
Gold hasn't fallen either.
On the contrary, prices are still rising.
$XAU
Current price: 4427.2
24 hours: +0.90%
Intraday high: 4450.5
The four-hour chart looks like,
Cleaner than SNDK.
After rising from around 3967.7,
This section basically keeps rising.
EMA144：4199.5
EMA169：4188.7
Both moving averages have clearly turned upward.
As for the current price of gold,
It is already well above the moving average.
This indicates that the mid-term structure,
It's still relatively strong now.
And gold's recent performance is also evident.
7 days: +3.44%
30 days: +10.47%
It is currently near the high of 4450.5,
It's already very close.
However, this cannot be just bullish here.
RSI6：72.63
The short-term market has also entered a hot zone.
Although the MACD is still at a high level,
But the momentum shown in the chart is no longer as intense as the previous segment.
So gold is now more like:
The trend remains strong, and short-term trading is starting to wear down.
Around 4450,
This is the most direct pressure that follows.
If we keep breaking through,
The trend can continue to move forward.
If you can't break through continuously,
High-level fluctuations are also quite normal.
So now comes the most interesting part.
Many times before,
The market has only one main thread.
Fear of risk,
Just buy gold.
daring to take risks,
Just buy stocks.
But not now.
What you see now is:
Hedge funds have aggressively increased their holdings in US stocks.
SNDK has rebounded rapidly.
Gold is also continuing to strengthen at high levels.
What does this indicate?
I prefer to understand it as:
Now, it's not money with nowhere to go.
but because there is too much money,
Different funds are simultaneously competing for different things.
So at this moment,
The most common mistake,
It means seeing something rise,
I immediately felt that all assets should rise along with it.
Not necessarily.
SNDK is currently classified as: strong rebound.
Gold belongs to: a strong trend at high levels.
As for U.S. stock capital flows,
This means: risk appetite is heating up.
All three signals seem to be biased in the direction.
But the position I occupy,
Completely different.
Next, I will look at only three things.
SNDK: Can 1380–1400 really hold firm?
Gold: Can it continue to break through around 4450?
US stock funds:
Can this kind of high-intensity buying continue?
If all three things continue at the same time,
This indicates the capital's risk appetite,
Maybe it's not over yet.
But if SNDK starts to fall back from its highs,
Gold is also repeatedly struggling around 4450,
This indicates that the short-term market has entered:
It's a stage where prices rise quickly but are hard to chase.
In today's market,
The biggest fear is not having no chance.
but rather seeing funds buying,
You forget how high the price has already gone.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
#黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up
#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates 🚨 CRYPTO’S TWO BIGGEST NARRATIVES ARE EVOLVING The market is putting both Bitcoin’s scarcity story and Ethereum’s deflation thesis to the test. 🟠 Bitcoin: Scarcity alone isn’t enough to drive price. While the halving limits supply, BTC is still heavily influenced by Fed policy, liquidity, ETF flows, interest rates, and overall market sentiment. 🔵 Ethereum: The “ultrasound money” narrative is also changing. As Layer-2 adoption grows, more activity moves off the main chain, reducing fees and poCLARITY Extension: SEC Supplements Rule First, but That Doesn't Mean Knockoffs Take Off Everywhere
My view is clear: the SEC's rules come first, which is good for compliance projects, but not a broad rally; instead, it will accelerate market differentiation.
CLARITY has already passed the Senate Banking Committee, and in September, the focus will be on whether the 60-vote process will proceed, not the final implementation. Even if the SEC advances the proposed rule, it will only initiate a public comment session, not mean the rule will take effect immediately.
The real key is not the phrase "safe harbor," but rather the following:
(1) Which items meet the requirements;
(2) How to regulate fundraising, disclosure, and lock-up;
(3) How tokens move from investment contract relationships to compliant circulation.
If the market only addresses "how to issue tokens" without addressing "how to trade and who supervises," the market impact will be limited.
My strategy is not to chase rallies just because of regulatory news: BTC and ETH are core positions, while counterfeit companies only focus on projects that truly have products, disclosures, and compliance paths.
The greatest value brought by clear regulation is not to raise all tokens, but to lower compliance discounts for high-quality projects.
The future market may not be a "bull market rally," but rather quality assets gaining premiums and problematic projects being repriced.
#CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule replacement $BTC $ETH Continuing to follow the script
Tonight, the US July CPI fully met expectations, withstanding the risk of oil price rebounds caused by the July Middle East conflict, continuing to follow a downward channel and removing the biggest tail risk for the market.
The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 46% to 40%. The market is gradually realizing that there will be no rate hikes this year, and that a rate cut is possible. This is the script I've been telling you all along: the Fed first plays hawkish to mislead the market—market despair—then data reverses—market perception shifts—Fed cuts rates.
This process is the market first falling, then gradually turning upward. After keeping the right rhythm, you can maintain stable positions, which feels very comfortable.
Tonight, gold failed to break through to $4500. Don't worry, resistance levels are divided. After a bit more volatility and full chip exchanges, a breakout will be stronger.
From a fundamental perspective, U.S. economic data is likely to continue weakening, while pressure on Tim Cook and the U.S. debt issuance issue (with Becent forced to intervene) will continue to weigh on U.S. credit and benefit gold.
After gold breaks out, silver will turn, because its financial attributes are lower than gold's, making it a follower-type asset. Therefore, some ambushes are also a viable strategy.
Today, Penguin Home released its financial report, with capital expenditures far exceeding expectations. In particular, Workbuddy's outstanding performance shows its AI implementation went smoothly. Although the negative cash flow is a short-term issue and the stock price fell tonight, in the long run, it supports the domestic mid- and downstream AI narrative, which is good news for the overall domestic AI theme.
The central bank announced tonight that it will conduct three 600 billion yuan reverse repo operations in the coming week, providing liquidity to hedge against liquidity shortages. This is good news for the A-share market, especially for liquid stocks like small and mid-cap stocks, which are worth watching in the short term.
Bitcoin has entered the August news vacuum period, time for space, and the new rally will only emerge after the bill is reviewed again in September. If prices fall now, it actually gives low prices a chance to buy chips, while a rise is just garbage time.
The above are personal views and do not represent investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.$BTC $ETH $SPCX During the week, the main stock once again touched 141, which was tested last weekend when liquidity was thin. However, there is still resistance between 139 and 143.3. Without major positive news and increased volume, even if a breakout is needed, it will have to be tested several times. Since rebounding from the bottom, the pullback has never broken below 130. The low keeps rising. The overall structure is strong. After unlocking twice on August 6 and 20, the number of outstanding shares will nearly triple, and its weight in the Nasdaq will rise. A new weight may be announced on September 11 On September 18, passive funds will follow the Nasdaq to buy. Based on the experience of the first entry on July 6, the market usually rushes in, then waits for the day of entry to dump shares into passive fund buying. So now, the short squeeze, the unlocked downward gap, and the buying expectations on September 18 work together to keep SPCX in an upward channel. If on August 20 and 6 are like on the 6th, with increased volume but no fall, the market will quickly start buying the passive buying in September. If the 20th falls below 130, first look at 125 to 128 Mechanical buying will be delayed but not disappear. If the unlock is absorbed, event funds will bet early on increased free circulation and higher target weights, likely around 145. If the new weights announced on September 11 exceed expectations, it could easily enter the event climax and possibly hit 150. If the overall strength overlaps with short covering, it might even reach around 160. The script is written, just waiting to see whether the market follows this trend. #July CPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? #黄金站上4400Gold has traded 10% in one week, and the bears have been crushed
It consecutively broke through the 4200, 4300, and 4400 levels, reaching $4430. It rose 10% in a week, with some people recovering 70,000 yuan in a week
Why is it so fierce? Four forces pushed together
The nonfarm payrolls collapsed. July employment decreased by 23,000, while the expectation was an increase of 80,000. CPI matched perfectly — 3.4%, fully in line with expectations, compared to the previous value of 3.5%. Rate hikes? Can't be raised anymore
The US dollar is collapsing. The US dollar index has fallen below 100, weakening for the second consecutive week. Central banks are also buying frantically—in Q2, global central banks net purchased 289 tons of gold, a year-on-year surge of 62%, and China's central bank increased holdings for 21 consecutive months. These people are not speculating for short-term trade, but are competing for chips
Mate is also helping out. Japanese government bond yields have soared to a 31-year high, with the 10-year term approaching 3%. The U.S. Treasury Secretary is desperately trying to rescue U.S. debt, but the situation is getting worse, and the market increasingly feels that the dollar's credibility is loosening—money is flowing toward gold
4400 holds, next target 4500-4800
My judgment: bullish! A weaker dollar, central bank buying, and unchanged interest rates are all medium-term logic. A pullback to 4300-4400 is a chance to get in. Don't wait until 5000 to regret itTonight, the US August CPI is out: overall year-on-year growth 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core year-on-year 2.5% (previous 2.6%), month-on-month overall +0.1%, core +0.2%, all within expectations. What does this data mean? Inflation hasn't exploded, but it's not good enough for the Fed to cut rates immediately. Traders cut the probability of a rate hike in September from 48% to around 42%. The dollar fell slightly, US Treasury yields dropped slightly, gold surged, and BTC and ETH also recovered accordingly. After the CPI comes out, why and how does the coin rise? To put it bluntly, this chain: Prices haven't gotten higher→ The Fed doesn't need to rush to raise rates. → Keeping money in banks isn't that tempting. → Idle money is willing to take risks. → BTC, this kind of "high-risk lottery," gets bought first. But note, "meeting expectations" doesn't mean "massive liquidity," so tonight's price isn't a surge but a "relief rally"—BTC pulled back from around 63,400 to 64,200, ETH jumped from 1878 to around 1910. XRP held at 1.02, SOL returned to 76.6. Where does the money flow? The order is very fixed: first buy $BTC (institutions act as digital gold, ETFs have returns), then stabilize ETH/BNB (mainstream face), then speculate on AI and infrastructure narratives like TAO/FET/$LINK public chains like SOL/SUI/$NEAR, and finally get a bit of a meme like DOGE/PEPE. Let's talk about the top thirty coins one by one (plain language). 💎 The three old men in the market $BTC Bitcoin (~64000): tonightAfter lying in the damp, cold lurking bushes for sixteen hours, his right knuckles were already stiff from the cold, but the target in the crosshair of the scope never missed the target by half a millimeter.
In sniper manuals, frequent trigger pulls are not bravery, but foolish suicide. Novices panic and shoot at the sight of leaves shaking, while true survivors are always waiting for the moment when gusts of wind stop, humidity stabilizes, and wind pressure locks in. Today's capital battlefield is no different from the damp, hot jungle filled with smoke and smoke.
Let's look at the battle reports presented by these infrastructure giants. Lumentum's Q4 revenue surged to $1.01 billion, a year-on-year surge of 109.3%, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.23—a solid breakthrough; CoreWeave earned about $2.58 billion in Q2, a 112% increase, burdened with $104 billion in undelivered orders, and its 2026 capital expenditure plunged to a high of $35 to $39 billion; Supermicro generated $11.12 billion in revenue in a single quarter, with gross margin rising to 17.5%, and the next quarter's earnings outlook directly broke through the market barrier. It's like heavy artillery positions on a battlefield unleashing firepower wildly, with the deafening roar of ammunition cascading.
But the fiercer the firepower, the more deadly the danger behind bunkers. After the first round of restrictions, SpaceX forced back to the launch price, but on August 20, about 7% of the chips still had to unplug—this means the enemy's logistics lines are about to switch again, and it's the window where the flanks are most vulnerable to exposing fatal weaknesses. As Coherent, Applied Materials, and Cisco all enter the main sight range, all shooters in the market are fixated on the same question: Can the surging real demand withstand the massive capital expenditure pressure on valuations?
It's like frantically consuming heavy machine gun bullets on a position. If every suppressive round doesn't deliver substantial ground advancement, the barrel will overheat and burn, and the powerful recoil will instantly shatter your own shoulder blade. In the midst of the computing power arms race, $XDELL as a linked target on the range, its fluctuation trajectory is like the scale on an anemometer.
In my thermal imaging scope, $XDELL's current posture is not a blind charge but a highly disciplined tactical displacement behind heavy cover. The explosion of computing hardware orders has provided it with ample bulletproof armor, but the huge capital consumption behind the lines is evolving into unpredictable lateral crosswinds. If the subsequent performance output cannot maintain over 100% ballistic correction accuracy, any slight recoil deviation can instantly collapse a highly valued dummy target.
A true top hunter would never be dazzled by the numbers flying everywhere. No matter how loud the noise is, it's just fireworks for amateurs. Until I calculate wind speed, measure trajectory, or lock in a perfect break-even ratio, my bullets always remain in the rifling.
Behind the cover, the striker needle locks on, waiting quietly for the wind to stop.
#AIInfraEarningsWatch The CPI data is out and is in line with expectations. Inflation is trending downward, and the direction is correct.
This means the probability of a rate hike in September is basically gone. Previously, the market's biggest concern was a rebound in inflation and continued tightening by the Federal Reserve, but now that suspense has been resolved.
The direction is confirmed, but the market hasn't moved yet.
BTC is still hovering around 64,000. This isn't because the positive news isn't enough, but because the market needs time to digest it. For nearly a month, the market was stuck here, and neither bulls nor bears dared to move first. Now that the data has landed, sentiment will gradually be released.
I judge it to be a consolidation upward, not a single line pulling upward. At 64,000, slowly wear down and rise slowly, much more stable than a rapid rally.
Don't chase the highs; wait for pullbacks to buy slowly. Wait a few days to see how the market reacts.
$BTC $ETH The U.S. CPI figures this time fully match market expectations. Bitcoin had already started an early rally to digest this positive trend. Now that the news has officially arrived, the market has entered a phase of "good news turning negative." Below is a breakdown of the subsequent trading strategy based on the market situation.
1. Summary of the day's market trends
BTC hit a low of $63,238 today before rebounding, surged to $64,500 in the afternoon, but bulls couldn't hold the gains, causing the price to plunge rapidly. The current price hovered around $64,000, with a 24-hour cumulative decline of 0.47%.
The daily fluctuation range was 63,238-64,500 USD, with a range of 1,277 USD. The candlestick closed with a long upper shadow, clearly proving heavy selling pressure at 64,500 USD and strong resistance to the rebound. With positive news coming true, the market will return to its original bearish trend.
2. Analysis of the matching between trading volume and price
Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart, the price rebounded to the $64,240 level. When the rally reached $64,500 in the evening, trading volume continued to shrink. The rebound saw no new capital entering to take over, and the market's willingness to chase gains was extremely low. Bullish momentum was already weak, and this rebound was merely a temporary recovery from short-term bearish strength.
Daily-level trading volume has significantly shrunk compared to the previous day, forming a typical volume-price divergence pattern, with volume continuing to decline. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the bear-dominated market structure remains unchanged.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
@一手好牌打得稀烂
$BTC 🔥 BTC is no longer just a “buy and never sell” story. And that changes everything.
To be honest, the more I think about it, the more interesting it gets.
For a long time, listed companies buying $BTC and $ETH felt like permanent supply leaving the market. They bought, locked the coins away, and investors assumed: “These guys aren’t selling.” That narrative gave retail a lot of confidence.
But reality is more complicated.
These companies have shareholders to answer to, debt to service, dividends to consider, and financial reports to protect. If crypto prices fall hard or cash flow gets tight, that “diamond hands forever” narrative can change very quickly.
That means there’s now another risk hanging over $BTC and $ETH: institutional selling pressure. 🗡️
In the short term, that’s obviously uncomfortable. Knowing a large holder could sell when conditions get ugly adds another layer of uncertainty.
But in the long run, I actually think this is part of a healthier, more mature market.
A market where everyone only buys and nobody sells isn’t sustainable. Real markets need capital to flow in and out. Only through that constant circulation can prices prove whether they have genuine strength.
As for me, I’m currently holding no positions and staying patient.
I’m watching around $62K for BTC and $1,800 for ETH as important areas to defend. I’d rather wait for the CPI data to land, see which direction the market chooses, and then gradually consider going long.
No rush. Let the market show its hand first. 👀📊
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #CPI #Bitcoin
#DailyOrbit