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Core contradiction: How much longer can the bullets keep flying?
The biggest current uncertainty is: Is the US-Iran conflict a short-term shock or a long-term standoff?
If the situation cools down quickly, Bitcoin might repeat the bottoming and breakout seen in 2023; but if the conflict continues to escalate, with oil prices rising further, inflation expectations strengthening, and the probability of interest rate hikes climbing — under this triple negative resonance, 77,000 may not be the bottom.
Bitunix analyst Dean Chen believes the current decline looks more like a "liquidity-driven correction" rather than a structural breakdown, but that is precisely the problem — against the backdrop of ongoing macro liquidity tightening, the depth of this "correction" could far exceed expectations.
Billionaires are voting with their feet: an anonymous whale sold 95 bitcoins via OTC. Meanwhile, Japanese listed company Remixpoint chose to liquidate all altcoins and go all-in on Bitcoin.
Some are fleeing in fear, others are betting amid chaos.
And you, which side are you on?
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This article is based on public market data and institutional analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please bear the risk of your own decisions. $BTC $ETH $SOL 🔥Brothers!!! Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Fidelity, and 21 global financial institutions jointly announced on September 1 the establishment of a joint venture company, planning to issue a US dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027.
The alliance spans five continents, doubling from 10 to 21 members in less than a year. They will first launch a US dollar stablecoin, then expand to euro and other G7 currencies. The timing is precise—January 18, 2027, is the official effective date of the US GENIUS Act, when banks will directly enter the market as the regulatory framework takes effect.
This poses a real threat to existing players. USDT and USDC rely on reserves and transparency outside the banking system, while the banking alliance's advantage lies in bank-level compliance, governance, and distribution networks. Circle's stock price dropped about 6% that day.
Another alliance of 37 financial institutions has formed Qivalis, planning to launch a euro stablecoin this year. On one hand, they are tokenizing deposits to maintain existing volume; on the other, issuing stablecoins to capture new growth—the banks are entering the market with a two-pronged approach.
The total market cap of stablecoins has increased from about $200 billion at the beginning of 2025 to about $303 billion. With banks entering, this number could grow even larger.👇
Let's discuss in the comments: do you think bank-issued stablecoins can challenge the position of USDT and USDC?
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币
$USDT $USDC $NVDA told JPMorgan, "If there are no supply constraints, business volume could more than double compared to the same period last year," even compared to its already quite aggressive FY28 growth expectation of about 70%.
The more interesting part is why Nvidia is giving this outlook so early, as management believes Wall Street's expectations are already low enough that they might actually interfere with supply chain planning.
Therefore, the FY28 guidance is not only to reset investor expectations but also to send a message to the semiconductor ecosystem: start planning for a larger demand curve. Superficially strong but weak inside? The military conflict between the US and Iran this time is one level less intense compared to July. Is the rekindling of hostilities actually aimed at securing key transport escorts? From Trump's military strikes to economic sanctions, now he has again proposed the "tanker swap"—how many cards does Trump still have to play against Iran? War intensity #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 So far, the US and Iran have temporarily resumed military strikes and retaliations, but the overall war intensity—such as the scale of continuous bombings, consecutive days of combat, and cumulative firepower—is currently lower than in July. Although called the largest military conflict since July, looking at the overall US-Iran military friction in 2026, each incident has been less intense than the last. So what is the core reason behind Trump's sudden military strike? This is a question I have never fully understood. If it were purely military pressure, such actions would obviously be toothless. Here, we need to consider a piece of news: the US Secretary of Energy stated that on Monday, 17 million barrels of crude oil passed through the strait. Although no other data sites can verify this figure, combined with the US's sudden weekend attack, I believe the firepower strike was actually to cover the passage of large oil tankers. How many cards does Trump still hold? From the initial large-scale bombing of Iran, trying to force Iran to submit, to later economic sanctions, up to today, control over the strait remains lost. Just when I thought Trump had no cards left, he proposed the "tanker swap" policy—that is, if Iran attacks US-affiliated cargo ships, the US will simultaneously attack Iranian oil tankers. When I saw this policy, my mind was also a$LINK A few days ago at $12 I already said it, LINK has been baiting for a pump and dump, yet retail investors are still fantasizing about how great LINK's benefits are. What do benefits have to do with tokens? Can tokens earn dividends? When retail investors disagree, they say, "Isn't that a buyback?" Hahaha, it's absolutely ridiculous. Can you even tell the difference between buyback storage and buyback burn? Do you know how much is unlocked each quarter? The September quarterly unlock is 17.5 million tokens. That small buyback is just a lure to attract a bunch of ignorant retail investors to take the bag.One-sentence conclusion: In the previous article (9/1), we just dissected the mechanism behind TRIA's high FDV collapse, and it has since hit a historic low of 0.003618 (intraday on 9/1). Early this morning, it precisely touched the same price again and then slightly rebounded, currently quoted at 0.00375 — down 92.7% from the 3/22 high of 0.05166, and only 15% of the February listing price of 0.0246. Over three days (8/31-9/2), it has dropped about 24%, with the main drop wave on 8/31 accounting for a 21% single-day decline. Has the sell-off cleared? Probably not yet. Today's market review: "Suffocating stabilization" after the new low. Breaking down the last three days (OKX perpetual daily/4-hour charts): • 8/31: Main drop wave -21.0%, falling directly from 0.00494 to 0.00390 — the Rain event impact described in the previous article was concentrated on this day; • 9/1: Inertial slow decline -4.0%, intraday low dipped to $0.003618, a historic low since listing (lowest point since listing on 2026-02-04); • 9/2 (today): At 4 AM, touched 0.003618 again without breaking, slight rebound to 0.00375, 24h -4.2%. Three details: 1. The rate of decline is slowing: from the evening of 9/1, the 4-hour line narrowed from -13.3% to between -0.8% and +0.8%, panicA "one of us" chosen by Trump, the first tough battle must precisely be to act the least like a "one of us." Written by: Frank, MSX Mactong Only 100 days after replacing Powell, the new Federal Reserve chairman personally selected by Trump has already started discussing "rate hikes." On August 28, Kevin Warsh made his Jackson Hole debut, clearly reaffirming the 2% inflation target as "unwavering," and stating that the data is insufficient to prove a "meaningful improvement" in the inflation trend. As soon as the "hawkish" tone dropped, the market quickly repriced. At the time of writing, the probability in the prediction market for a 25bp rate hike on September 16 surged to about 56%, whereas before it hovered just above 30%. Even more paradoxically, Trump did not publicly attack Warsh as he did Powell in the past; instead, he rarely stated that he "respects" Warsh "very much," and that "he will do what he must do." This raises a more interesting question: Is Warsh acting so hawkish now because he is preparing to part ways with Trump? The answer might be quite the opposite. 1. The more "one of us" you are, the less you can act like one. Judging solely from the Jackson Hole speech, it is hard to link Warsh with the "low-rate Fed chairman Trump wants." He not only emphasized that inflation remains too high but also proposed an extremely hawkish restructuring of the Federal Reserve's operating paradigm over the past twenty years: unconventional policies like QE should be used only in true crises, and the Fed should reduce its influence on the market.September Fed hike expectations have moved up quickly, but I don’t think the decision is settled yet.
Right now, markets are pricing roughly a 70% chance of a September rate hike, after the Fed’s tone turned more hawkish around Jackson Hole. But we still have one very important piece of the puzzle coming: the August jobs report.
This is where things get interesting for me.
If NFP comes in stronger than expected and unemployment stays contained, it becomes much easier for the Fed to argue that the economy can handle another hike while inflation remains above target. But if hiring looks noticeably weaker, the conversation becomes more complicated fighting inflation is important, but the Fed also can’t completely ignore deterioration in the labor market.
Personally, I think this NFP matters more than usual. I’m not only watching the headline jobs number; I’ll also be looking at unemployment and wage growth before deciding whether the report actually strengthens the hike case.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds $BTC $BTC entered about two weeks of range consolidation after the daily rise, with the fluctuation range gradually narrowing and a huge divergence between bulls and bears. The market is split between those who believe the bull market is returning and those expecting one last drop.
Comparing to historical bull market starts: before this round of rise, there was no prolonged negative funding rate, nor sufficient bottom accumulation or minimal volume process, which differs from previous bull market beginnings. There is no need to rush to judge whether this is a major bull market; wait for pattern confirmation before entering. The late-stage bull market still has significant room, so there is no need to fear missing out.
Currently, it is in a narrow consolidation after the rise, with intense bull-bear competition. The first wave breakout is most likely a false breakout. Focus on two price behaviors: a quick recovery after a breakdown to test longs / a pullback after a breakout to test shorts. Short-term support is at 75600, where many long stop losses are concentrated.
Extremely effective support break: 67000-68000. If it falls effectively to this range, the original upward structure will be broken.
Currently, short positions can still be taken at 78500, with add-on at 79200 and stop loss at 79800. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 🚨 September didn't start well — BTC retraced to 77000, SOL dropped below 100, and the specter of rate hikes is back.
The surge in August was too rapid; it's normal for September to enter a phase of profit-taking and repricing. The real anchor for the market now is macro interest rates: after Jackson Hole set a hawkish tone, short-term US Treasuries and the dollar have both risen, pressuring risk asset valuations, and crypto naturally tightens along. Plus, with a dense schedule of employment data this week—ADP, non-farm payrolls, JOLTS—any stronger-than-expected report can push back rate cut/easing expectations further.
Key support levels I’m watching:
🔴 BTC: 76800-77000 is the short-term sentiment boundary; if it holds, expect consolidation and recovery; resistance near 79200 was previously rejected, only breaking above it opens the chance to target 83,000-86,000. If volume-backed breakdown below 76800 occurs, watch out for a second dip possibly testing around 75,000.
🟠 ETH: Support around 2415-2420 is crucial; holding it allows a retest of 2500; breaking below leads to 2300, and if weaker, around 2200. ETF and mid-to-long-term chip structure remain decent, but short-term cycles are more strongly linked to macro and BTC.
🟢 SOL: 100 is a key psychological and round-number support; holding it leaves room for a rebound to 105-110; breaking 100 first targets the 95 liquidity zone. When on-chain activity and ecosystem expectations falter, the rebound elasticity will compress faster.
August’s gains have already priced in some expectations; don’t chase in September, wait for data to land and support to confirm. With no easing in rate expectations, don’t expect smooth upside; if support holds, avoid blind shorting.At the end of August 2026, Reuters entered a humanoid robot training facility in China and witnessed a contradictory scene: the robots could punch, kick balls, and perform carefully choreographed movements, but once they actually entered factories, they were still challenged by flexible materials, unfamiliar workstations, and temporary changes. Just a few days ago, SoftBank was reported to be negotiating the acquisition of a majority stake in 1X, with a potential valuation of about $6 billion; the 2025 acquisition price for ABB's robotics business was $5.4 billion. Capital has already regarded humanoid robots as the next-generation platform, but production sites are still asking the most basic questions: can they work continuously, what is the failure rate, and can the hourly cost be lower than that of humans and traditional automation equipment? This gap is exactly the entry point that "The Next Billion-Dollar Ticket" Vol.14 aims to explore. From robotic arms to "general workers" Industrial robots are not a new industry. In 1961, Unimate entered a General Motors factory to handle high-temperature, repetitive, and dangerous die-casting transport; in the following decades, the automotive industry used welding, painting, and assembly robotic arms to establish highly automated production lines. According to the International Federation of Robotics, about 542,000 new industrial robots will be installed globally in 2024, exceeding 500,000 units for the fourth consecutive year, with Asia accounting for 74% of the global new deployments. Mature robotic arms are fast and precise but require fixed workstations, fences, fixtures, and extensive pre-programming. The commercial logic of humanoid robots comes from another route: global factories, warehouses, and tools are originally designed according to human height, hands, aisles, and stairs. If machines have legs, hands, vision, and language understanding capabilitiesBTC fell back below 80,000, but what really made me sit up was not this bearish candlestick. Have you ever wondered whether when prices fall, is the underlying layer of leverage accumulating or retreating? Let's start with the facts. $BTC has returned to below $80,000, and recent rebound attempts have all been shut down above 80,000. But what I focus on is not the candlestick itself, but the futures open interest—Bitcoin futures opened interest was hovering around $54.8 billion recently, and the derivatives market heat cooled noticeably after that sharp rally at the end of August. The key is: as prices weaken, open interest shrinks, which usually means leverage is being cleared rather than new bears ramping up. There is a fundamental difference between these two types of declines. If the bears are actively attacking, the market will collapse like a waterfall, and the rebound will be very weak; But if the crowded long positions are slowly being squeezed out, then this decline feels more like a "detoxification" than a trend reversal. What I want to confirm now is exactly which type this is. On the price side, the 77K level is becoming more and more like a touchstone. Over the past week, buying has repeatedly caught the price between 76.8K and 77.2K, and every dip has attracted buyers. As long as 77K holds, this round of correction remains within the category of healthy pullbacks; Once the volume breaks through, the nature of the entire situation changes, and I may re-examine my positions. Here are a few key points I observe: - $BTC — 77K is the lifeblood of the bulls#财报观察员: Dell's performance exceeds expectations, Broadcom and Snowflake take over The new round of tech earnings season in the US stock market continues to ferment, with Dell delivering an impressive report card, significantly outperforming market consensus expectations. AI computing power demand on the hardware side is once again validated; market funds are starting to shift focus to the next stop, with Broadcom about to release earnings, becoming the core competitive target in the AI industry chain going forward.
Market logic breakdown
1. Dell's performance confirms that enterprise computing power capital expenditure has not receded
Dell's server and AI-related hardware business revenue performed strongly, indicating that besides NVIDIA, downstream OEM orders remain full. The AI expansion cycle for enterprises and cloud providers is sustainable, and the fundamentals of the entire AI hardware industry chain are solid.
2. Market funds rotate and switch, competing for the next earnings breakout point
After the previous wave of NVIDIA and Dell rallies, funds are positioning ahead of Broadcom's earnings expectations. As a core supplier of AI high-speed interconnects and custom chips, Broadcom is an indispensable part of AI computing clusters. The market expects Broadcom to deliver high-growth earnings to sustain the current AI mainline momentum.
3. Sector transmission logic
If Broadcom's earnings also exceed expectations, the rally will spread to ASIC chips, high-speed optical interconnects, and network chip sub-sectors, continuing the strong pattern of AI tech stocks.
Potential risks
Earnings beating expectations does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise; there can be a pullback after the positive news is priced in. If Broadcom's guidance falls short of market optimism, the AI sub-sector may face short-term profit-taking corrections. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $ZEC has been consolidating for one or two weeks, and finally experienced a major crash.
A coin full of vulnerabilities, what justifies it being at 800?
During this week, it hovered between 800 and 870 for a long time at a high level, with trading volume continuously increasing and capital fleeing. Currently, what supports it is retail investor sentiment.
I have said before that ZEC is not worth this price at all; I still see it around 600. This is not blindly bearish, but a sign of capital divergence. When the price accelerates upward and then stops, it should take a break and retrace a bit.
Later, people will probably say: When will ZEC at 870 be able to break even?
My answer is: When you are 87 years old, it still won't have returned to 870.In my personal opinion, the factors leading to the short-term stagflation and pullback are as follows:
First, some macro factors that drove the market up in late August:
Trump's strong support for crypto legislation, the Treasury expanding bond repurchases, a decline in long-term US Treasury yields, combined with friendly signals from the SEC, quickly boosted risk appetite.
This stimulated short-term bullish market sentiment.
Factors causing the subsequent pullback:
Wash's hawkish remarks increased the probability of a Fed rate hike, raising market concerns.
Geopolitical conflicts pushed oil prices up, increasing the likelihood of black swan events and concerns about inflation rebounding.
Upcoming major data releases on September 4th (non-farm payrolls) and September 11th (CPI).
$BTC and $ETH ETF spot outflows, institutional buying cooled down.
Resistance above could not be effectively broken, repeated failures caused a large amount of profit-taking, wearing down bullish momentum in the short term.
A quick note: next support levels are BTC at 76000 and ETH at 2350.
Personal sharing, does not constitute any investment advice
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Macro "Second Shot": The Probability of a Fed Rate Hike Soars to 70% Overnight
If geopolitical conflicts are the trigger, then macro liquidity tightening is another heavy burden weighing on Bitcoin.
At the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Powell clearly stated that it is "difficult to describe financial conditions as accommodative," with inflation still far above the 2% target. The surge in oil prices further strengthens inflation expectations—CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in September has jumped from 41% last week to 70.2%.
Government bond yields in the US, Europe, Japan, Australia, and other countries have collectively surged, with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching its highest level since January 2025. When risk-free yields rise, Bitcoin, as a "non-yielding asset," is naturally abandoned by capital. Moreover, August's rally was driven by declining yields; now that the logic has reversed, prices are naturally under pressure.
$ETH $BTC $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 It's just a bear market cycle with an extended duration $BTC $ETH
1. The current BTC 60,000 roughly corresponds to 30,000 in 2022 and 6,000 in 2018, all of which are multiple rebounds after halving to the 0.382 level of the entire decline
2. BTC may have already finished its rebound, or it might break through 83,000 for a final bull trap top
3. Many people think the bull comeback is mainly due to the weekly breakout, but it's actually just an illusion caused by the extended cycle length I feel that everyone's emotions are heavily influenced by price momentum. People always want to find an explanation in the market news that fits the current price movement pattern, but they simply can't find a way to keep their mind calm and unaffected by external factors. Sometimes the direction isn't important; what matters is whether you're playing short-term or long-term.With rising oil prices, US Treasury yields remaining high, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, risk aversion is heating up in the market. Interestingly, $BTC is still holding near the $76,800–$77,500 range, with no significant breach. 📌 Several key points the market is currently watching: 🇺🇸 Before the release of the latest US employment data, expectations for the Fed's September policy have fluctuated. Inflationary pressures remain elevated recently, and hawkish statements from some Fed officials have reignited expectations for rate cuts or even hikes in September. 🛢️ Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts are pushing energy prices higher. If oil prices continue to rise, it could further increase global inflationary pressures and suppress risk asset valuations. 📈 US Treasury yields remain relatively high, indicating that funding costs have not significantly decreased. For highly volatile assets like BTC and tech stocks, this remains a source of pressure. But this is also what makes $BTC unique: it does not rely on the balance sheets of any single government, central bank, or corporation. When the traditional financial system faces inflation, debt, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty, some funds may revisit assets that do not rely on the credit of any single institution. This is why the key for BTC right now is not just whether it can climb back above $80K. More importantly: 👉 when macro pressures increase, can BTC still hold the core support 👉 near $75K? Will ETF funds continue net inflows 👉? Will the Fed's September policy expectations be increasing?Quickly introduce you to NAT. Part twoStrategy officially confronts MSCI: Trying to kick me out of the index? No way!
Strategy has officially sent a letter to MSCI opposing its proposal to remove "non-operating companies" from the global investable market index, calling the proposal "misleading and flawed."
The MSCI proposal targets companies whose digital asset holdings exceed half of their total assets. In the May 2026 simulation, Strategy, Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake were listed as "immediately removed." Strategy's market value is $23.93 billion, accounting for about 87% of the total market value of the three companies. Being kicked out of the MSCI global index means tens of billions in passive funds must sell off, posing an existential threat to Strategy.
BitMine, on the other hand, is quietly profiting. Last week, it increased its holdings by 53,501 ETH, bringing its total holdings to over 5.9 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total supply, with an annualized staking yield of about $335 million.
My judgment: The crypto treasury is undergoing a "compliance coming-of-age"—the MSCI rules battle will determine whether it can enter the mainstream financial system. BitMine proves itself as an operating company through staking yields, while Strategy chooses to confront head-on. Short-term uncertainty increases, and valuations of surviving companies will be reassessed.
$MSTR $BTC $ETH
#加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 Many people have heard that storage is a typically cyclical industry with sharp rises and falls. Is storage king for filling gaps?
Over the past twenty-plus years, DRAM has consistently repeated a fixed cycle: a surge in market demand and widening supply-demand gap drive prices and manufacturer profits to soar; then manufacturers massively expand production capacity, leading to rapid oversupply, prices plummet sharply, and the industry enters a downturn cycle. The market cycles in 2000, 2017-2018, and 2021 all perfectly replicated this "boom—crash" cycle script.
However, in this round of the storage market, the general consensus is that traditional rules may be broken, with AI as the core variable. Three major structural changes are completely reshaping the industry landscape.
First, structural diversion of production capacity. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continue to shift advanced capacity toward HBM, and HBM wafer and packaging resources consume far more than ordinary DRAM, directly compressing the effective supply of conventional DRAM.
Second, comprehensive upgrade in demand dimensions. Traditional storage demand is driven by short replacement cycles of mobile phones and PCs, whereas AI servers, large models with long context, and AI intelligent agent inference scenarios bring sustained, massive incremental memory demand.
Third, manufacturers' operations tend toward rationality. After multiple cycles of loss and reshuffling, leading storage companies strictly adhere to capital expenditure discipline, rely on long-term agreements to lock orders, and no longer blindly expand production to avoid rapid oversupply.
Currently, DRAM prices are again at historically low levels, and the industry cycle continues, but the structural changes brought by AI are expected to significantly extend this round of high prosperity in the storage cycle! $SKHY $SNDK $MU Kuwait's skies also sounded the alarm! Iran strikes back on four fronts, Brent crude nears $97
Just as the US airstrikes ceased, Iran's counterattack began. This time, the fire reached over Kuwait's head.
The Kuwaiti military announced that its air defense system is intercepting "hostile missile and drone attacks," labeling it as "evil Iranian aggression." An Iranian drone hit a residential complex in Kuwait's capital, causing a fire. Simultaneously, US bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Erbil, Iraq, were also attacked — Iran's counterattack is launching on four fronts simultaneously.
Every step the conflict expands adds another layer of risk premium to the market.
🛢️ Brent crude once approached $97
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard declared: revenge continues. Brent crude surged close to $97/barrel during the European session on Wednesday. On Tuesday, Brent had already surged 4.6% to close at $94.65, while WTI jumped 5.2% to $90.22.
Diesel is even more intense. ICE diesel crack spread hit a record high of about $79/barrel. Diesel is a fundamental fuel for economic operation — when diesel rises, inflation flames are about to flare up again.
📉 Bitcoin under pressure, but institutional logic remains unchanged
Under triple pressure — geopolitical conflict + soaring oil prices + rising rate hike expectations — Bitcoin fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762. But the core driver of the sell-off is rising real interest rates, not a flight to safety.
Only when oil prices ease will BTC's pressure truly have a chance to relieve $BTC $ETH Why are precious metals, virtual currencies, and non-US currencies all falling??
The core reason is that the market's expectations for a rate hike in September have further increased, leading to a rise in US assets, while assets priced in US dollars are inversely affected.
Why does a rate hike cause non-US assets to fall???
The rise in risk-free returns such as US dollar deposits and US Treasury interest draws liquidity away from the global market, and any asset's price increase depends on continuous buyers; with reduced liquidity, prices of other assets naturally fall.
On the other hand, the US dollar is the world's main financing currency. After a rate hike, the borrowing cost in US dollars rises, increasing corporate financing costs and lowering profit expectations, which also compresses the stock market.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 $BTC $ETH ZEC at $805, will you take it or not?
First, look at the surface: ETF launch hits the peak, retail investors panic and shout "sell off".
On August 25, Grayscale's ZCSH was listed on the NYSE, and ZEC surged from 500 to 886, an 80% increase in one month. Then what? It dropped back to 804 within a week, oscillating at a high level, with both bulls and bears suffering.
The daily RSI has already fallen back from overbought; this is just a normal cooldown after a strong rise.
The 800-810 psychological level is the bulls' first line of defense. Holding it means a "pullback confirmation," failing which 775 is the next target.
First thing: The ETF has landed, but the story isn't over.
Grayscale's spot ETF is live, the first privacy coin ETF in the US, fully opening the institutional channel. Expected capital inflow is in the $500 million to $2 billion range.
Grayscale's report personally positions ZEC as "AI-era financial privacy hedge." AI is making on-chain address deanonymization easier, and privacy demand is being repriced.
Second thing: After the vulnerability fix, ZEC is actually cleaner.
In June, the Orchard pool vulnerability was exposed, causing the price to flash crash from 680 to 250, with the whole network calling for zeroing out. Then? The team completed a hard fork in 5 days; Ironwood (NU6.3) activated in July, with the new shielded pool + turnstile mechanism restoring supply verifiability.
From "supply integrity in doubt" to "verifiable and auditable."
This is a world of difference for institutions. The shielded pool has now surged to 4.4 million ZEC (about 26% of circulation), showing real privacy demand is rising, not just speculation.
Third thing: The macro environment is indeed a headwind, but ZEC has an "independent script."
BTC is pressured at 77,000, US Treasury yields hit a 19-month high, and FOMC rate hike probability is 66-70%. Altcoins are generally suppressed.
But ZEC is different—it is driven by its own catalysts. Grayscale ETF just launched a week ago, NU7 voting ends September 14, with topics including halving smoothing and block time reduction from 75 seconds to 25 seconds.
As long as BTC doesn't crash, ZEC continues to enjoy a premium. Macro is cold, events are hot; this is ZEC's current state.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Grayscale ZEC spot ETF is live, institutional channel open
Ironwood fixed vulnerabilities, supply verifiable, institutional confidence restored
Shielded pool accounts for 26% of circulation, real privacy demand rising
AI privacy narrative certified by Grayscale report
NU7 voting window open, ongoing topics until September 14
On the other side:
ETF first-day spike has been realized, short-term profit-taking surges
BTC pressured at 77,000, rate hike expectations suppress risk appetite
886 near 8-year high, trapped positions need digestion
804 is exactly the divergence zone, can shake both ways
Ultra-short support: 800-810, near current price, losing it may accelerate drop to 775
Strong support: 770-775, previous high breakout pullback zone, mid-term bull lifeline
Deeper support: 750-760, first target zone after macro deterioration
Near-term resistance: 840-860, watch here for rebound, failure means high-level oscillation
Strong resistance: 880-890, this round's high point, breakout means secondary start
Mid-term target: 1000 / 1150+, only after volume breakout above 890
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Stop falling in 804-818 range, 4H candle with lower shadow and close back above 820, light position long, stop loss 792-798. Target 838-850 to reduce position, do not chase 880.
If repeatedly crushed below 804, shorting on rebound to 825-838 is safer than chasing shorts directly, target 775, stop loss above 855.
Swing traders:
Mid-term bulls can still act, first batch: 775-800 in parts; second batch: add after confirming above 850; invalid if daily close below 750.
First realization zone above: 880-900, no volume breakout above 890 means no "new main rally."
This ZEC pullback is the "institutional accumulation window" after ETF launch—
99% see 886 drop to 804 and think "good news exhausted, about to crash," but institutions are accumulating in batches, waiting for voting results + macro warming to push directly to 1000.
The day 775 holds, you'll realize:
It's not that ZEC is weak, it's that you always cut losses at the lowest pullback.
What's your ZEC cost?
At 805, do you dare to get on board?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Starting with non-farm payrolls: Thursday night at 8:30, market expectation of about 55,000 new jobs. If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of rate hikes will continue to rise. Currently, it's already 68%. Non-farm payrolls are strong, so rate hike expectations are locked in. The market remains under pressure, non-farm payrolls are weak, and the probability of rate hikes drops, which is actually a breathing room. Now, let's talk about the CLARITY bill. The Senate procedural vote in the early hours of September 16 requires 60 votes to pass, but the market predicts it will pass less than 20%. This is likely to be postponed again this year. Still, this could actually be a variable, just like Trump's election predictions Repeated pull-and-pull to buy back and cut off. Before the news came out, there was a drop. Delayed news actually triggered all the negative news and rebounded. Finally, the FOMC will release results in the early hours of September 17. Rate hikes or no move. We'll see the real trick then. If rate hikes really happen, the market will definitely pull back rapidly. But that would actually be an opportunity to add positions in the spot market. This is exactly what I've been waiting for. The overall trend is positive. Any rapid correction is an opportunity to get in. Don't cut losses in panic, and don't bet on direction before the news comes out. Wait until it hits before acting. September is tough, but there are opportunities inside. Don't be scared off by volatility. #PrefarmPayDivergence, Expectations for a rate hike in September heat up #Robinhood链上放量, crypto Meme sparks controversy #财报观察员: Dell earnings beat expectations, Broadcom snowflake takes over $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
PMI and pre-nonfarm sentinel data are conflicting; why is blindly betting on a one-sided move now just giving market makers free money?
The freshly released key Fed macro data poured a pot of extremely confusing lukewarm water on the market.
The August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, showing a clear slowdown in momentum but still above the expansion line; meanwhile, July JOLTS job openings were 7.27 million, which, although below expectations, slightly rebounded from the previous value. These two data points neither confirm a recession nor prove overheated demand.
But the market’s money scent is very honest: on CME interest rate tools, the market’s bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in September surged directly above 66%.
This is the most frustrating aspect of the current macro landscape: the labor market still shows resilience, making the Fed reluctant to fully pivot dovish; meanwhile, the manufacturing slowdown is genuinely suppressing risk asset profit expectations. Neither bulls nor bears can hold an absolute trump card in the data.
Everyone’s eyes are now fixed tightly on the August nonfarm payroll report on the evening of September 4.
For BTC and U.S. stocks, don’t blindly guess a one-sided rise or fall before the data release. At this stage, the quality of individual data is just surface noise; what truly determines the market is whether the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields will use this opportunity to launch a secondary repricing. Before the clear referee steps in, holding back often preserves profits better than frequent trial and error.In one sentence conclusion: BSB (Block Street) is an infrastructure project in the RWA/tokenized securities sector, with its whitepaper positioning it as the "unified liquidity layer for on-chain capital markets." After OKX perpetual contracts launched in early April, the contract price surged to 2.64 on May 20, then declined steadily over the next four months—now at 0.1074, down 96% from the peak. However, it rebounded +15.5% in the past 7 days, with a single-day gain of +12.2% on August 26. The question is: is this an oversold bottom or a continuation of the downtrend? Over 90 days: the overall market rose +20%, while it fell -51%. Looking at the daily chart (from early June to now): the highest point was 0.6885 (June 16), the lowest 0.0705 (August 21), currently 0.1074—**90 days -51%**. Extending back to the May high is even more striking: 2.64 → $0.107, -96%. What about BTC in the same period? It rose from 63,864 to 76,617 in 90 days, +20%. BSB fell more than half in a rising market—this is a typical individual coin event, not a beta drag but a collapse of its own alpha. It is not an unknown: it is listed on Binance Alpha Spotlight, deployed across multiple chains (Ethereum / Base / Mantle / BNB Chain), with a product line including Aqua (tokenized asset infrastructureLong and Short Crowding List
This set does not sort directions by rate, but only looks for high-cost positions and their price feedback.
$XAU current rate +0.0272%, settled +0.156% in the past 24 hours, at the 91st percentile of recent samples. Price is rising while OI is falling, currently driven by position reduction, so it is not advisable to directly write this as a new long entry. OI contraction indicates risk exposure is withdrawing; the rate can only indicate which side has higher costs and cannot replace detailed close position directions.
$0G current rate -0.0190%, settled -0.144% in the past 24 hours, at the 10th percentile of recent samples. Price is rising and positions are also increasing, short-term funds are expanding risk exposure. Negative rate did not lead to a decline; instead, there is an increase in positions with rising prices, showing visible short-side pressure.
$BTC current rate +0.0100%, settled +0.022% in the past 24 hours, at the 100th percentile of recent samples. OI increases synchronously with price rise; this is not a simple deleveraging, position ownership still needs transaction verification. Bulls continue to expand positions at high costs; this is not a counter-trend signal currently. The real risk point is adding positions without price increase.ETF funds are still flowing in — so why are $BTC and $ETH adjusting?
ETF demand remains strong, but short-term pressure is building. $BTC is around $77.8K, and $ETH is close to $2.45K.
Profit-taking, rising U.S. Treasury yields, higher oil prices, inflation concerns, and increased expectations of Fed rate hikes are weighing on risk assets.
The key point: ETF fund flows show structural demand, while the macro environment, liquidity, and leverage drive short-term volatility. The adjustment does not necessarily mean funds are flowing out of the crypto market. Bitcoin's pullback is the result of a dual impact from geopolitical conflicts and sudden shifts in macro policy expectations.
Specifically, the main factors are as follows:
· ⛽ Escalation of geopolitical conflict (direct trigger): A new round of direct military clashes broke out between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. This strait handles about 20% of global oil transportation, causing Brent crude oil to surge to $94.65 per barrel, directly triggering market risk aversion.
· 📈 Sharp rise in Fed rate hike expectations (core macro pressure): The conflict led to soaring oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The hawkish remarks from the Fed Chair at Jackson Hole had not yet faded, and CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a rate hike in September surged to 66.4%.
· 💵 Surge in the US dollar and US Treasury yields (direct selling pressure): Strengthened rate hike expectations boosted the US dollar index, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 4.798% intraday (the highest since January 2025). As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin's holding cost relatively increased, directly pressuring it.
· 📊 Technicals and market sentiment (internal adjustment needs): Bitcoin had risen about 25% cumulatively in August, with the daily RSI in the overbought zone; on-chain data showed increased exchange inflows and rising profit-taking willingness. This is more of a healthy correction after a prior large rally.
In summary, this pullback is "geopolitical conflict → oil price surge → inflation concerns → rising rate hike expectations → stronger US dollar."
The market is currently closely watching the Fed meeting on September 15-16 and the developments in the Middle East.Tonight's market was like a quiet harvest, while the daytime rebound was just bait scattered on the ground. Have you ever felt for a moment that your position is harder to guess than the weather forecast? First, let me share my most direct impression from watching the market: when ETH surged to 2490 overnight, it really made my heart race, but that rally was too forceful, like a balloon pushed too hard. Sure enough, as soon as BTC turned and went downward, the altcoins softened completely, ETH slid along with it, and market sentiment shifted from "it can still rise" to "just don't up." Right now, everyone is focused on those rows of dense price levels on the clearing map, like seeing dominoes where whoever falls first will follow suit. From a derivatives perspective, the most important thing about this round of decline isn't how much it dropped, but that funding rates have been suppressed to stabilize. A few days ago, bulls were willing to pay a premium to hold positions, but now the rates are almost moving close to the zero axis, indicating that leveraged funds are withdrawing rapidly—not panic selling, but simply not holding overnight positions. In this state, the rebound tends to feel weak, because no one wants to leverage again at this level. Now, let's talk about ETH. Its current position is awkward: trapped positions are stacking above, and the support below is not strong enough, so funds clearly prefer to stay in BTC as a safe haven. In the short term, if BTC can't stabilize, ETH will struggle to strengthen independently. But on the other hand, once liquidation volume accumulates to a certain level, the elasticity of short covering may be greater than expected. The logic behind a bullish bias is: the market has already fallen to the emotional freezing point, rates have hit zero, and open positions have declined. At such times, the short-term bottom is often not far off.#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
US economic and labor data are cooling simultaneously but have not weakened enough to determine the September rate hike path; the nonfarm payrolls will be the next key verification. The August ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.6, down from 55.6 in July, but still expanding for the eighth consecutive month; new orders at 53.7 and employment at 51.2 also slowed. July JOLTS job openings were 7.271 million, higher than the revised 7.182 million in June, while hires dropped to 5.054 million. Job openings slightly rebounded but hiring weakened, showing that corporate labor demand remains resilient; whether actual job gains continue to weaken awaits confirmation from nonfarm payrolls. The data reflect a slowdown in demand rather than a sharp deceleration; the market may first adjust the dollar and US Treasury yields before transmitting to US stock valuations. The Federal Reserve maintained the target range of 3.50% to 3.75% in July; before the September 15-16 decision, attention will focus on the August nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 4.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.Bitcoin and gold both declined—are their tight bonds truly reliable? What will the next move look like? Will gold or digital gold be stronger? $BTC Recently, these two "safe-haven assets" have pulled back together, which is quite interesting. BTC is currently around $77,000, while gold has fallen back to around $4,300 per ounce. Yesterday, US stocks, gold, and BTC all weakened simultaneously, and market risk appetite cooled significantly. $XAU But don't rush to think BTC and gold are already linked. Although both are often called "safe-haven assets," their driving logic is actually different. Gold depends more on the US dollar, real interest rates, and central bank gold purchases; BTC relies more on liquidity, capital sentiment, and institutional funds. The biggest variable right now is still the Federal Reserve. The latest market expectations show the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 67%, the US dollar index has risen to around 99, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.8%. This is not good news for both gold and BTC. Technically, BTC should first see support at $75,000–$77,000 in the short term. Before it climbs back to $80,000, I won't be too aggressive. Gold, on the other hand, has already pulled back continuously. In the short term, focus is on whether it can stabilize near $4,300. If the US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise, the pressure on gold may not end yet. So if you have to choose between the two now, in the short term I'm leaning more toward gold, and in the long term, I'm more focused on BTC. #BTC is pulling back from high levels, and the gold linkage is being tested #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
The gameplay of crypto treasuries has changed, from competing over who buys more to competing over who lasts longer.
This week, Strategy and BitMine almost simultaneously took action.
One bets on BTC appreciation, the other earns ETH staking rewards. Two paths, different directions, but both are betting on the same thing.
But now both companies face a common problem—MSCI may kick them out of the index.
MSCI's new rule is simple: companies with operating assets accounting for less than 50% of total assets must pass five additional financial tests; triggering four or more results in losing eligibility for inclusion in the MSCI Global Investable Market Index. In the May 2026 simulated screening, Strategy and Metaplanet were directly listed as "immediately removed."
Strategy's moat is that it has grown too large to ignore—845,050 BTC, the world's second-largest Bitcoin holder. BitMine's moat is staking income—$335 million annualized revenue; even if ETH price remains flat, the company is still making money.
Strategy bears price risk, BitMine bears yield risk. But both have to bear the same thing—whether MSCI will kick them out of the index.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $BTC $MSTR Can someone tell me why Michael Saylor is so contrarian? He makes me feel like Bitcoin might have topped again, although the dips are actually good buying opportunities.
Of course, regarding MicroStrategy's "buy high, sell low" advanced strategy, they also have an explanation:
He says that from the perspective of retail secondary market traders like us, the understanding is too shallow. It needs to be analyzed from the "Corporate Finance" angle; this is an extremely calculated capital flywheel strategy.
"You trade Bitcoin to make a profit from price differences, but MSTR's core strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin and ensure the company's sustainable operation."
First is debt repayment. CEO Phong Le said this operation has built a $7 billion reserve for the company. When macro interest rates are high or facing specific debt maturities, moderately selling some BTC to repay high-interest debt or bad leverage is absolutely the correct "defensive operation."
Next is resetting the credit rating: after clearing net debt, MSTR's credit quality in the eyes of traditional Wall Street banks has soared significantly, laying the foundation for them to issue new convertible bonds at lower interest rates.
There are many other reasons and motivations, such as long-term annual growth rate, U.S. stock premium flywheel, and so on. Anyway, they want us to know that their operations are still very skillful, so everyone should buy quickly!!Today's market is actually quite typical. $BTC is currently around $77,000, down about 2% in 24 hours; But SOL, XRP, and many high-beta counterfeits have dropped noticeably more. Many people's first reaction is: "Are the altcoins finished?" Actually, not necessarily. Because the real problem with counterfeit is never just spot selling pressure, but leverage. BTC is collateral for the entire market. When BTC starts to fall, long positions on exchanges start to lose money; The higher the leverage, the closer you get to the liquidation line. Once a large number of positions are liquidated simultaneously, the system automatically sells the asset. This leads to a very exaggerated chain reaction: BTC drops → long margin shrinks → fake liquidation → the price drops further → more positions are liquidated→ the market keeps selling. So the "sudden crash of knockoffs" you see doesn't always mean the fundamentals have suddenly deteriorated by 20%. It might just be too much market leverage. That's why I'm not in a hurry to judge whether a fake has "crashed" now. What really matters is whether spot buying will return after deleveraging ends. If BTC stabilizes and high-liquidity assets like SOL, HYPE, SUI, LINK, AAVE, UNI recover their losses first, it means there was more leverage washing just now. But if BTC stabilizes and altcoins continue to hit new lows and trading volume keeps shrinking, then the nature is different—this shows spot tradingETH fell below 2400, yet institutions were still net buyers yesterday, with two groups betting in opposite directions
At the same price, retail investors are cutting losses while ETFs are scooping up. On September 2, ETH dropped below 2400, but on September 1, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $48.4 million.
Breaking it down is even more interesting: ETHA had an inflow of $83.8 million, FETH had an outflow of $24.3 million, and leveraged product ETHU was redeemed for $16 million. The short-term leveraged money is exiting, while pure long positions are entering. Looking at a longer timeframe, the divergence is clearer: Ethereum-related funds rose about 33% in the past month and 23% in three months, outperforming BTC; on the same day, BTC spot ETFs actually had a net outflow of $181 million.
But I have to say something unpleasant: ETH's leverage is heavier than BTC's. Liquidations in 24 hours reached $52.46 million, almost equal to BTC's $54.51 million, yet ETH's market cap is only one-fifth of BTC's; the funding rate is 0.0087%, double BTC's 0.0043%. The long positions are really crowded.
My judgment: 2400 is not a technical level, but a leverage level. If it holds, institutional money will continue to support it; if it breaks below effectively, below 2383 will be a cascade of stop orders, and it will fall faster than BTC. For those wanting to bottom-fish, wait until it climbs back above 2450.
$ETH Today BTC hovered around 77,000 all day, sliding down from just above 78,000 in the morning to 77,249 by evening, dropping 1.6% for the day. ETH is at 2,411, the total market cap is 2.7 trillion, down 1.4%. It looks pretty rough, but the fear and greed index is still at 63, firmly in the greed zone. This combination is quite interesting. Everyone verbally says they're scared, but no one has sold a single coin. It's a bit like the days before a breakup—both know it's over, but no one mentions it, just waiting for the other to speak first. The reason for the drop isn't complicated. After Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to nearly 60%. Both CME and Kalshi have adjusted their odds upward. Before the speech, 70% of the market was betting on no change; now the script has completely reversed. His original meaning was that summer data looked good, but the underlying trend hasn't truly improved. In plain language, it means: "It's not that I don't like you, I just think we need more time, so don't get your hopes up yet." But the truly valuable information today isn't the rate hike, it's the on-chain reallocation. Yesterday, a whale sold 2,000 BTC, about $215 million, and at the same time bought 48,942 ETH, with the amounts almost exactly matching. This isn't liquidation; it's switching tracks. Meanwhile, another data set shows that addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by 46,420 BTC in the past 60 days, while small addresses holding 0.1 to 1 BTC have a cumulative trend score of -0.982 during this 31% rally, meaning retail investors are distributing while big players are accumulating and whales are reallocating.Bitcoin is back below $80K. For many traders that immediately raises the question: How low can $BTC go? But I'm more interested in a different question: What's happening underneath the price? A pullback by itself doesn't tell us much. The way the market behaves during that pullback can tell us much more. The Leverage Question Bitcoin futures open interest recently stood around $54.8B while derivatives positioning has cooled following the aggressive move seen in late August. That matters because #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
After Jackson Hole, Waller released a tough hawkish statement, combined with collective hints from Federal Reserve officials, CME interest rate futures have pushed the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September to 65%-68%, and the market has directly entered a data-driven battle mode. However, high-frequency data shows a clear split: on one side, inflation stickiness persists; on the other, employment is already showing signs of weakness, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
1. The two sides of the divergent data
Hawkish (supporting rate hikes)
1. Core PCE inflation remains stuck around 3.3%, significantly above the 2% target. The Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices, raising market concerns that energy will again drive inflation higher.
2. Waller clearly stated that inflation is "worrisome" and will not tolerate prolonged high inflation; official Barr also said that if inflation does not fall, decisive rate hikes are necessary.
3. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, global bond markets are collectively selling off, and the market is trading on "higher rates staying longer."
Dovish (opposing an immediate September hike)
1. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined, job numbers were revised down, wage growth is slowing, and the labor market is cooling.
2. Retail consumption is weakening, tax rebate benefits are fading, and consumer momentum is declining in the second half of the year. Institutions like Goldman Sachs still maintain the view that there will be no rate hike in September, believing inflation pressure is a temporary disturbance.
In simple terms: inflation refuses to fall, employment is weakening, both happening simultaneously, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. The final decision rests with the upcoming August nonfarm payroll report.$XAU smashed from 4700 down to 4314, no one wants it if it's not a safe haven.
The war is still ongoing, oil prices keep rising, but gold keeps falling. This trade is about interest rates, not war.
After Walsh turned hawkish, the probability of a September rate hike rose from 36% to 67%. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.8%, and the dollar returned to 99.8. Gold pays no interest, so these two factors are pressuring it together.
In the short term, watch 4311. Holding above it means a rebound, breaking below points to 4215 first. Brothers, are you standing at 4311 or 4200? The $CP foundation address transferred a total of 125M in three transactions, the community circulation address transferred a total of 29M in five transactions, and the liquidity address transferred a total of 125M in two transactions. What is the intention behind this?XRP ETF has been bought continuously for 11 days, but I am more interested in seeing $1.30
I checked the latest fund data: The US spot XRP ETF has had net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, totaling about $170 million this round, with a historical cumulative net inflow of about $1.68 billion. In the latest 13F filings, Goldman Sachs, Jane Street, and Millennium also appear on the list of major institutional holders, but 13F only proves fund holdings and cannot confirm whether there is hedging involved. (CoinDesk)
What really made me stop is the price: XRP is about $1.33 today, noticeably retreating from the August high. In other words, institutional channels continue to absorb funds, but the price is still digesting sell orders. (CoinDesk)
This is more worth studying than the “ETF bullishness.” If money keeps flowing in but the price can’t rise, it means the supply above hasn’t been fully absorbed; if the bullish news is already public, and XRP can hold $1.30 and reclaim $1.40, that’s the strong move I’m more willing to believe.
My trading direction is very short-term: I won’t short if $1.30 holds, and will consider going long only if it stabilizes above $1.40; if it breaks below $1.30, I’ll keep waiting.
The ETF has been bought for 11 consecutive days but hasn’t pushed the price up. Do you think this is institutions accumulating, or someone using ETF buying to unload?#日本长债收益率升至高位
The leader has something to say
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has broken 3% for the first time since 1996. The 30-year yield surged above 4.18%, reaching a historical high. US, UK, and German bonds are rising simultaneously, with global long-term bonds undergoing collective repricing.
The rise in Japanese interest rates will directly impact yen carry trades, affecting global capital flows and risk appetite. This carry trade amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars; if it continues to unwind, it will have a draining effect on high-volatility assets.
Holding ZEC short positions along with $BTC $ETH $SOL
Global long-term bond yields are rising, geopolitical conflicts are pushing oil prices up, and the macro environment is unfavorable for risk assets. Try long positions with light exposure; if wrong, admit it; if right, hold on; set stop losses properly and don't hold through losses.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.Security company reports that Yam Finance is suspected of a governance attack, with approximately $337,000 at risk of being stolen.Are banks no longer opposing stablecoins and starting to issue their own?
Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Fidelity, and 21 other financial institutions have just announced that they will establish a new company in the second half of this year, planning to launch a US dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027. Last October, this alliance had only 10 members; now it has expanded to 21.
This time it’s not an internal bank ledger token.
The official statement clearly says: the plan is to create a digital dollar with 1:1 reserve backing, operable on a public blockchain, for cross-border payments and digital asset settlement, and to simultaneously comply with the US GENIUS Act and Europe’s MiCA requirements. After the dollar, the euro stablecoin is the next priority.
The most interesting aspect of this is the changing attitude of banks.
Previously, the US banking industry was vigorously restricting stablecoins from "disguised interest payments," fearing that USDC and USDT would siphon off deposits; now they realize stablecoins can’t be stopped, and the most practical solution is to issue their own.
But the alliance of 21 banks does not mean USDT and USDC are immediately at risk.
Banks’ biggest advantages are compliance, corporate clients, and global payment networks; their biggest weakness, however, is the most important aspect of crypto—liquidity and user habits. Tether currently has a circulating supply exceeding $180 billion, while many stablecoins previously issued by banks have hardly been used.
Traditional banks are acknowledging that a portion of future US dollars will naturally flow on-chain
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 The US and Iran clash again, oil prices surge back up, and the most annoying thing isn't the price jump itself, but that inflation has gained another excuse.
Energy risks will muddy all macro discussions. Employment data hasn't been fully clarified, inflation hasn't returned to target, and yet oil prices are pushed up again by geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve originally didn't want to ease too quickly, and now it's easier to say: see, the risks aren't over yet.
For the market, crude oil isn't just a standalone commodity; it seeps through transportation, insurance, chemicals, aviation, and consumer expectations. Short-term oil price fluctuations can be traded, but once inflation expectations become sticky, interest rates become harder to lower.
This is also why risk assets fear oil prices. It's not about competing for liquidity; it directly chokes the narrative of "rate cuts are coming soon."
#美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 On September 1, the total net outflow of US spot BTC ETFs was about $236 million, of which BlackRock IBIT had a net outflow of about $201 million, not that IBIT alone had a net outflow of $236 million.
BTC ETFs just warmed up for one day, and funds withdrew $236 million again.
At the end of August, BTC ETFs were still continuously attracting funds, with a net inflow of about $217 million on August 31, but on September 1, it immediately reversed, with a single-day net outflow of about $236 million, of which BlackRock IBIT alone saw an outflow of about $201 million.
BTC is currently around $77,600, still down about 1.4% in 24 hours.
This indicates that ETF buyers did come back, but a stable second round of continuous buying has not yet formed.
Now macro pressures are also increasing: oil prices remain high, US Treasury yields are surging, and the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 68%. Even if institutions want to buy BTC, they will be more cautious.
What is most worth watching next is: if ETFs continue to see outflows, can BTC still hold the $76,000–$77,000 range; if the outflows end quickly and funds turn positive again, this looks more like normal profit-taking.
So don’t rush to say "institutions have fled" now.
The real signal is: after nine consecutive days of fund inflows, ETFs have started to show obvious fluctuations, and the consensus on funds above $80,000 has not yet fully formed. $BTC
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 $BTC and $XAU both fell; how strong is their correlation really? What will the next move look like? Is gold stronger or is digital gold stronger?
It's quite interesting that these two "safe-haven assets" have both recently pulled back. BTC is currently around $77,000, while gold has dropped to about $4,300 per ounce. Yesterday, US stocks, gold, and BTC all weakened simultaneously, showing a clear cooling in market risk appetite.
But don't rush to think BTC and gold are already tied together. Although both are often called "safe-haven assets," their driving factors are actually different. Gold is more influenced by the US dollar, real interest rates, and central bank gold purchases; BTC depends more on liquidity, investor sentiment, and institutional funds.
The biggest variable now remains the Federal Reserve. The latest market expectations show the probability of a September rate hike has risen to about 67%, the US dollar index is near 99, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.8%. This is not good news for either gold or BTC.
From a technical perspective, BTC's short-term support is between $75,000 and $77,000. I won't be too aggressively bullish until it retakes $80,000.
Gold has already been pulling back continuously; the short-term focus is whether it can stabilize around $4,300. If the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise, gold's pressure may not be over yet.
So if I have to choose between the two now, I lean more toward gold in the short term and BTC in the long term.
#高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温