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I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Here's the latest pre-market intelligence on $BTC
Positive factors: US spot ETF net inflow of 118.86 million Belayek IBIT alone took 122 million
Robinhood's balance sheet increased holdings by 300 BTC Saylor called for banks to custody BTC and provide 100 billion in credit, corresponding to new supply over ten years
Risk factors: BTC fell below 84,000 dropping 2,000 in 20 minutes, Iran's Hormuz conflict pushed crude oil above 101, US Treasury yields surged BTC 83186, almost the same as before going to bed last night. I’ve been watching OKX; this thing has been grinding around 83000 all night without breaking out in any direction.
After dropping to 82755 last night, the bulls finally held around 82800, but the rebound lacked strength, just hovering back and forth within a few dozen points, like a dead fish.
I glanced at the order book: there’s support between 82800-83000, but the buying pressure isn’t fierce. Selling pressure piles up between 83800-84200. The volume has shrunk significantly compared to when the market was dumped yesterday, indicating that most panic sellers have exited, leaving only those playing dead or bottom fishing. ETH is probably similar, hovering around 2615. This time, ETH didn’t slide further down but also lacks the strength to bounce back, showing the same pattern as BTC.
I’ll mark the key $BTC levels:
Support: 82500-82800, if broken, look at 82000-82200.
Resistance: 83800-84200, failure to break this on a rebound means weakness.
My strategy: In this low-volume sideways market, trading before a clear direction emerges is a gamble. If it pulls back to around 82500 with low volume and stops falling, I’ll lightly test the waters with a small position, setting a stop loss below 82000; if it directly surges to 84000 without volume, I’ll just keep watching.From the perspective of capital: "Bitcoin continues to decline, falling below $83,000"
With bearish news emerging, large funds usually start by reducing leverage; watch for large sell orders.
$BTC $BTC 24h trading volume is $1.631 billion, add to watchlist first.
#US mortgage rates rise to 7.49% #BTC
For market record only, please make your own trading decisions.$BTC
BTC fell below yesterday's observed low point. Can the original range still be used?
Today's early morning spot 24-hour observation window: range 82753—85421.8 USDT, change -2.36%, trading volume approximately 559.45 million USDT.
Yesterday morning's low of 85141.5 has been surpassed by today's observation range, so the old boundary should no longer be considered a support guarantee. The break below indicates that sellers have changed the trading range, but a single day's market cannot confirm a long-term trend.
If the rebound never recovers the old low, I will increase the weight of structural weakening; if it recovers and holds during the pullback, I will reduce the judgment of continued breakdown.🔷 "Old money" holds $BTC stronger
• Kevin Lee: wealthy investors are long-term
• BTC as diversification: 5% gold + 5% BTC
• They don't expect 10x growth in 2 weeks
• JPMorgan: 89% of family offices have no crypto
• Average crypto share: 0.4%
• Only 17% consider crypto a key theme
🧠 The wealthy hold BTC long-term as diversification. But family offices are almost not in crypto (89% without, 0.4% average share). Huge untapped potential
❓ When will family offices start buying?👇Sparse blob pools save bandwidth by relying on division of labor rather than storing less data.
Currently, execution layer nodes often obtain the full data of blob transactions to be processed. As blob capacity grows, this part of the traffic may surpass that of regular blocks and proof propagation. The sparse blob pool scheme allows some nodes to store the full payload, while other nodes only sample the data columns they are responsible for. The proposal estimates that under set parameters, the average bandwidth can be reduced to about one quarter of the full replication mode.
The savings come from network division of labor, not from blobs shrinking out of thin air. If there are too few full providers or connections are controlled by attackers, sampling nodes may not obtain the data needed for reconstruction. Therefore, the scheme requires observing multiple providers, additionally randomly sampling data columns, and allows rate limiting or disconnecting neighbors who only request but do not contribute. Probability parameters must also balance bandwidth and availability, not just pursue lower download volume.
For $ETH scaling, this kind of change determines whether more blobs can propagate under normal network conditions. The success criterion is not how much bandwidth is saved in the lab, but whether transactions can still be fully constructed and timely verified when facing node dropouts, Sybil attacks, and sudden spikes. Sampling lets each node do a little less, but the network as a whole must continue to store enough replicas; division of labor must hold, so reliability is not traded for attractive numbers.Once the government moves coins, BTC gets smashed below 83,000 again? This wave is not that simple
This morning's big bearish candle was indeed fierce. BTC dropped from above 86,000 all the way down to 82,700, directly back near 83,000. Don't rush to call a crash; this wave looks more like a stampede caused by news, macro factors, and leverage combined.
Let's first look on-chain. The US government address transferred about $670 million in assets within 32 hours, including 6,215 BTC and 119 million USDT successively moving into Coinbase Prime, and last night to this morning another 5,382 BTC were transferred. Once the news came out, the market's first reaction was: is the government preparing to sell coins?
But veteran players know well that Coinbase Prime can both custody and trade, so moving coins there doesn't mean an immediate dump. The government still holds about $28 billion in assets, mainly over 320,000 BTC, so this scale of transfer is far from a "clearance" level.
What really knocked the market down was macro + leverage. Oil prices broke above $100 again, US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, risk assets were already fragile, and with high-leverage longs clustered, one bearish candle triggered a chain liquidation, wiping out billions from longs within hours.
So I tend to think: sentiment collapsed first, fundamentals did not.
In the short term, focus on 82,000–83,000; if this holds steady, a recovery phase is possible; if volume breaks below, then consider downside space.
Rare to see, government moving coins like this will happen again, just get used to it. $BTC Liquidation Map: Pain Points Concentrated, Key Levels Determine Short-Term Direction
From the perspective of the long-short liquidation map, combined with the distribution structure of intraday and weekly liquidation plates, the strong liquidation zones for both bulls and bears in the short term have been clearly delineated. Bulls are currently under the most pressure, with concentrated liquidation pain points around 82500, 82700, and 83000. A large amount of bull stop-loss chips are piled up in this range, and once the price dips to this area, it is very likely to trigger a chain reaction of bull liquidations.
In contrast, the bear liquidation points are relatively concentrated, with the core pain point at 84700. Once the price stabilizes and breaks through this level, a concentrated short squeeze will drive a rapid rebound.
Above 84700 is the core bear liquidation zone; breaking through this level will release bear stop-loss orders, giving the market a chance to retest previous highs. Below 82500–83000 is a dense bull liquidation zone; losing this area will trigger continuous bull stampedes, further amplifying downward momentum. Reviewing yesterday's trades, the biggest lesson is not to open positions in the middle range.
BTC dropped from 84000 to 83188.2, with resistance at 83831.52 and support at 83000, leaning bearish. I opened a long at 83500 yesterday, but got stopped out and took a loss. The reason was opening a position in the middle range, getting hit from both sides.
After losing 200,000 U, I repeatedly reminded myself to only open positions at key levels: short at resistance, long at support, and watch the market in the middle. Now I open positions with 5000 U each, always with stop loss, no holding through losses.
83000 is a key support; if it breaks, go short; if it holds, consider going long. Don’t mess around in the middle range. $BTC #At low tide, don't mistake a rebound for a reversal
The position language of contract funds is very straightforward: deleveraging and reducing risk. In the past day, BTC saw an outflow of $588 million, ETH outflowed $413 million, and SOL outflowed $53.2 million; looking at 30 days, BTC and ETH have net decreased by $5.186 billion and $2.929 billion respectively. BTC is bleeding almost across all timeframes from short-term to monthly, and the mid-term capital flow for ETH and SOL has not improved.
The only bright spot is localized: a small amount of replenishment appeared on the 5-minute charts of BTC and ETH, while ZEC absorbed $59.44 million against the trend. Rather than saying funds are returning, it's more accurate to say they are concentrating — only willing to pay for high certainty and strong narratives.
Therefore, a short-term rebound to green does not mean a trend reversal. Until incremental funds return, chasing longs is still a counter-trend move. Going forward, just observe whether BTC outflows converge and whether ETH and SOL can stop bleeding. If the answer is no, the market will face not how much further it can fall, but who will break first.
Not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 A Satoshi-era address dormant for 16 years just moved!
An address from the Satoshi era, silent for 16 years, has just transferred 100.02 $BTC, worth about 8.55 million USD.
Why is this noteworthy?
This is a Satoshi-era address. It means the coins in this wallet were mined in Bitcoin's early days (around 2009-2010). Back then, Bitcoin was worthless, and mining could be done with ordinary computers.
It hasn't moved for 16 years. From when Bitcoin was under $1 to now over $80,000. Through countless booms, busts, and bull-bear cycles, it never moved.
Why move now?
David Hoffman, founder of Bankless, offered an explanation: it might be preparing for quantum attack resistance.
Once quantum computers mature, they could theoretically break Bitcoin's elliptic curve signatures. Satoshi-era addresses use early signature methods, which are riskier.
Transferring coins to a more secure address in advance is a defensive measure.Those who shorted $ZEC at 816 are now at 1319
A little over a month ago, $ZEC was still at 800.
Now it has reached 1319, and some started shorting at 816.
Floating loss of 503 points, a couple of days ago it was down to only 460.
How is this number calculated: short entry price minus current price, then multiplied by the number of contracts.
When it dropped to 1278, the floating loss shrank to 460, then bounced back 40 points in two days.
Others think it's time to cut losses.
He thinks that since he has already endured 882 points, this bit won't matter.
The problem is here: how long you endure and whether it will drop are two different things.
Enduring for a month does not generate any motivation to break even.
The break-even price is still 816, regardless of how long you endure.
The stop-loss orders placed at 1278 have already been swept away.
#Winklevoss旗下机构申请ZEC现货ETF $ZEC It has been 100u and a hundred percent drop since $BTC fell below 82,000.
The current $BTC is no longer consolidating at a high level but consolidating downward.
During the decline, the consolidation is still testing resistance levels.
As long as there are large institutions selling off, $BTC will break down quickly.
EFT outflows are also gradually increasing, which means in the coming weeks
there may be a downtrend, which is the most feared scenario for altcoins.
If you must trade, you can open a short position but watch your position size carefully.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 明日将迎来一批重要期权到期： 🟠 BTC • 到期数量：约 22,000 张 • Put/Call Ratio：1.12 • 最大痛点：$84,000 • 名义价值：约 $1.84B 🔵 ETH • 到期数量：约 123,000 张 • Put/Call Ratio：0.71 • 最大痛点：$2,650 • 名义价值：约 $320M 本次到期约占 BTC 未平仓量的 6%、ETH 的 9%。结合本周市场持续回调，短线真正值得关注的不是到期本身，而是到期后资金会选择哪个方向。 📉 期权市场还有一个信号值得注意：IV 仍处于偏低水平。 尽管今年已经出现过两轮快速拉升，但主要期限期权的隐含波动率并没有明显回升，说明市场参与者整体仍偏谨慎，不愿意为高波动下注支付太多溢价。 Gamma Exposure（GEX）结构也比较有意思： $90K / $95K / $100K 附近存在较明显的集中区域，而 $80K / $85K 的期权堆积相对有限。随着本次到期完成，这些关键价位之间的资金结构可能进一步变化。 📌 我的思路仍然是：先观察 BTC 选择方向，再决定是否提高风险敞口。 经过一个多月I was about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked my balance and decided against it. The market is always right. Yesterday afternoon, $SPK showed weak rebound strength; every surge was just short of breath, and I knew no one was buying at the top.
During the bottom consolidation, volume didn't keep up, and selling pressure dominated. I signaled a bearish outlook at that time. The resistance at the high level was obvious; short positions could wait for confirmation. Don't be fooled by a single bullish candle—those chasing longs are the easiest to get carried away.
The answer came directly afterward. From 0.02502 down to 0.02238, the short position gained +211.03%. Timing the rhythm right really feels great. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome was truly rewarding.
Panic comes from lack of planning; losses come from overthinking. Don't get inflated by profits, and don't despair over pullbacks. The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially from those who think they're the smartest.
In terms of operation, first close 80%, then protect the remaining 20% at cost price. Move the stop loss closer to the cost price; if it continues to drop, let the profits run—don't be greedy for the last bit. Don't feel bad about the rebound; pocketing profits first is what really counts.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing shorts easily leaves you stuck halfway up the mountain. Wait for a new structure to form, then watch for the next signal before acting. I'll notify you immediately. Have a strategy before the market opens, discipline during trading, and reflection afterward.
There are still opportunities; don't rush. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a flying knife and end up bleeding.
$DOGE $BTC September meeting: all 19 officials agreed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and most believe that tightening will likely continue by the end of the year.
But here’s the key point: it’s not certain that there will be a rate hike in October!
Opinions vary; some fear inflation will rebound, while others think rate hikes are necessary based on economic data. Most officials predict at least one more hike in the remaining two meetings this year; a few think both meetings will see hikes.
However, the minutes did not lock in a rate hike for October. The Fed always keeps options open, reviewing the latest data at each meeting—policy changes as data changes.
From a market perspective: rate hike expectations remain, suppressing precious metals, but in the short term, the market won’t move in a straight line. News can be volatile, so don’t stubbornly go all long or all short; wait for a clear opportunity to act. $XAU Why addresses that have never signed are temporarily safe
Signatures use elliptic curve (ECDSA). An attacker must first obtain the public key to reverse-engineer the private key.
Bitcoin regular addresses and Ethereum external accounts only show the hash of the public key on-chain if they have never signed; the public key itself is not visible. The public key is "revealed" only at the first signature or transfer, and off-chain signatures being public also count as exposure.
Therefore, these addresses can be treated as "temporary shelters": staying inside, attackers cannot even get the public key, making cracking ineffective.
Exceptions: Taproot (bc1p) and early addresses (such as Satoshi's) have their public keys already written on-chain and are not protected by this layer.
How to proceed
First, transfer most funds to new addresses that have never signed, prioritizing whales, exchanges, and institutional cold wallets.
When you need to spend later, sign and simultaneously transfer the balance to another new address (derivable from the same mnemonic).
Don't rush: moving all at once across the network may cause more harm from fees, mistakes, and phishing than the threat itself.
Satoshi's early approximately 20,000 addresses with exposed public keys (each holding 50 BTC) would be the first targets if compromised. Addresses with less than 50 BTC but exposed public keys are lower priority and not considered safe.$BTC BTC Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to drop today, currently around $83,300, down 2.6% in 24 hours, with a low of $82,776.
The support at 85,000 mentioned yesterday was directly broken, and today it dropped to 83,000 again. The reason is the same as yesterday — the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to a new high since 2002, combined with rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, causing global risk assets to be hammered together. The entire market saw liquidations of $714 million in 24 hours, mostly longs.
Key levels:
Lower support: $82,000–$82,500, which is the platform from early September;
Upper resistance: $84,000 (the level broken yesterday, now short-term resistance);
The $87,000 level was tested four times but failed to break through, and now it has directly fallen back, showing short-term weakness.
$ETH ETH Ethereum
ETH fell even harder today, now at $2,565, down 4.8% in 24 hours, more than BTC.
Yesterday it was 2,685, today directly down to 2,565, a big bearish candle. The ETH/BTC ratio fell below the Ichimoku cloud, turning technical indicators bearish, indicating funds are moving from ETH to BTC, making ETH relatively weaker against BTC.
Key levels:
Lower support: $2,500 round number;
Upper resistance: $2,650–$2,680;
It dropped straight down from 2,700, showing short-term weakness, so don’t try to catch the bottom.I bet BTC will break 83000 today, targeting 82500.
Current price 83188.2, resistance 83831.52, support 83000, slightly bearish. The 83000 integer level has been tested several times, and each rebound is getting weaker, indicating the bulls are weakening.
I opened a position with 5000U, short at 83200, stop loss at 83500, first target 82500, second target 82000. After losing 200,000U, I learned that predictions can be bold, but stop losses must be strict, no holding losing positions.
Of course, this is just my judgment and does not constitute investment advice. You are responsible for your own money. $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Peaty, just opened and saw the market dropping, a sea of green even fiercer than yesterday, ETH directly smashed down to 2575.
ETH nervously went long, initially set stop loss at 2650, changed it within a minute, stopped out in less than two minutes, luckily lost less, almost got buried.
Too brutal, it plunged down in two quick moves, like a waterfall, no time to react, SOL also fell below 116.
What happened to cause the drop? Only saw some Fed speech fragments, didn’t look closely, gold probably dropped too, likely the dollar side is causing trouble again.
In this market, twitchy hands suffer the most, controlling your hands is better than anything, NEAR and SAND are still rallying but that’s someone else’s game, just watch and don’t get involved.
#美联储[未确认] releases hawkish signals? $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 October 8 $BTC market at $83,460, down 2.58%; 24h high 85,812, low 82,788. $ETH at 2,571, down 4.6%. 24h liquidations reached $696 million, almost all longs, with over 120,000 people liquidated.
Minutes | Hawkish tone, dovish pace
19 officials unanimously raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, most said another hike is likely by year-end; but emphasized meeting-by-meeting decisions, with October hike probability dropping from 70% to under 20%. The 2-year yield fell over 12 basis points to 4.78%, while 10-year/30-year remain above 5%—short end easing, long end tight.
Funds | Real hidden risk
ETF weekly inflows plunged from 2.39 billion to 208 million; Glassnode indicates spot and ETF volumes are abnormally low, reflecting position games rather than new buying. Fear & Greed Index at 62, positions not cleared.
Levels
Upside: 85,500 → 87,200 → 90,000; Downside: 83,500 (21-day moving average) → 82,500 → 81,000, breaking triggers a second round of forced liquidations.
Advice
Do not chase shorts or rush to bottom-fish; watch 83,500 and rebound volume, wait for October 14 CPI to set direction
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $XAU Gold has been acting erratically lately, pushed down when it goes up, pulled down when it goes down, with key levels all being fake moves, making short-term trading chaotic.
Currently, the 4-hour bullish divergence is rebounding; first watch 4185-4226, only a firm break above 4226 counts as a real bottom. The 4113-3950 zone below is the starting point of the rise and the area where the main players have accumulated chips for over a month, making it hard to break. Around here, you can try going long.$PROS I was just complaining to a friend about this week's market, but now I have to take back my words, a bit awkward.
Last night before bed, PROS rebounded but no one took over, insufficient support, obvious resistance above, so I suggested a short position trial. Entry price 0.7445.
Woke up to see the current price at 0.6618, a return of +221.89%. This profit feels good; the earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying.
Take profits on 80% first, move the stop loss on the remaining 20% to the cost price for protection, let the profit run if it continues to drop, don’t be greedy for the last bit.
Don’t lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a trending move. Risk control done upfront is called rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive. Now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, there will be more opportunities ahead.
$SNDK $BTC Be careful, it's time to start short covering. Currently, the biggest pain points for shorts are Bitcoin at 8.46, Ethereum shorts pain point at 2630, and ZEC at 1630. Sweep them for better health! $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 FOMC minutes released! BTC and ETH funds completely polarized
The FOMC September minutes were released early morning, making the market direction completely clear👇
The Federal Reserve is neutral to dovish, with serious internal divisions
Rate cuts are implemented but not aggressive, inflation concerns remain, overall positive for crypto markets, but no one-sided big moves, mainly oscillating for recovery.
Combined with the latest major institutional fund divergence:
✅ BTC spot ETF net inflow of 119 million in one day
❌ ETH ETF continuous outflow of 201.9 million, fleeing for 6 consecutive days
Both are BlackRock products, but their trends are completely split!
Key on-chain signals:
BTC exchange inventory only 6.5% left
Nearly 24,073 BTC withdrawn in one day, the largest withdrawal in 7 months!
The core logic is straightforward:
BTC long-term lock-up, liquidity drying up, institutions continuously hoarding for hedging
ETH funds continuously withdrawing, in a continuous portfolio adjustment phase
Key summary:
This is not an overall bull market now, but a structurally strong independent BTC rally!
Questions:
Is this institutional heavy BTC position a short-term bullish arbitrage?
Or will BTC independently lead a strong main upward trend in Q4?
Share your thoughts in the comments🤝
Real-time tracking of main fund movements!
⚠️Market analysis only, does not constitute any investment advice $BTC 突然放量回落，并跌破近期横盘区间的短线支撑，但一个细节更值得警惕：OI（未平仓合约）仅回落至约 29.93K，并没有随着价格快速下跌而大幅收缩。 通常情况下，BTC快速下杀会触发多头清算，OI也会明显下降。但这一次 OI 降幅相对有限，说明过去两天震荡期间进场的部分资金可能仍未完全离场。 换句话说，这更像是一次仓位重新定价，而不是彻底的杠杆出清。接下来重点观察 OI、成交量与 $83K–$84K 支撑区是否同步变化。 如果价格继续走弱、OI却维持高位，市场仍需警惕后续进一步清算压力；若OI明显下降后价格企稳，则可能意味着杠杆得到释放，反弹结构才会更健康。 📌 不要只看K线跌幅，也要看资金有没有真正撤退。 #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTCUpdate #CryptoTrading #MarketStructure #OKXFrom the 12-hour Volume Profile from August to now, the most obvious high volume nodes (HVN) below ETH are concentrated in the $2,400–$2,500 range. This means if the short-term rebound cannot be sustained and selling pressure strengthens again, the price is likely to retest this range, seeking new buying support. 🔻 $2,500–$2,400: Key Volume Concentration Zone If holded→ there is a chance to form support and attempt a rebound; if it falls→ market structure may weaken further. Currently, I prefer to wait for the price to enter a key area before observing volume and buyer reaction, rather than chasing orders in the middle position. 👀 ETH Next Key Point: Can $2.4K–$2.5K Serve as Effective Support? DYOR | NFA $ETH $BTC $SOL #Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #VolumeProfile #AltcoinsMany people think trading relies on prediction, but it actually depends on response.
BTC current price 83188.2, resistance 83831.52, support 83000, slightly bearish. At this position, whether you predict a rise or fall, you could be wrong, but you can prepare in advance: short if it breaks 83000, go long if it rebounds to 83800, do nothing in between.
I used to love predicting and lost 200,000U before realizing that trading is not fortune-telling, it’s planning + execution. Now I open positions with 5000U each, always with stop-loss, never holding losing positions.
Focus your energy on responding rather than predicting, and you’ll find trading much simpler. $BTC #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 In the second half of 2022, FTX suddenly collapsed. Before the collapse, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund had also invested in FTX. At that time, FTX was regarded within the industry as the world's second-largest exchange, with pure Wall Street North American pedigree, but it just collapsed suddenly.
Since then, I have been worried about all centralized exchanges, feeling uneasy and doubtful. As for DEXs, I fear hacker attacks, especially now with AI, which makes it easier to find protocol vulnerabilities. Recently, Aave was also hacked and lost some funds, and it is still the most famous lending protocol in DeFi.
I also bought a hardware wallet but have never used it; it’s just been sitting there. The reason is that some low-risk, low-yield financial activities exist on CEXs, and most of my USDC is in these financial products. It seems I can’t give up these financial returns because I have no other source of income and can only rely on crypto funds to cover some expenses.
There are mortgage payments, living expenses, and social security fees—all require money. What I can do is spread my funds across two major exchanges so that if any trouble arises, I can withdraw my coins immediately and run. Withdrawal fees are minimal, which I can accept. If I’m lazy, I might face the tragic fate of many families whose assets were wiped out after the 2022 FTX collapse.Damn, is Ethereum's biggest bull Tom Lee really about to stop?
A friend at TOKEN2049 in Singapore heard the exact words: "That's a hard cap. We're not gonna be accumulating past 5%."
Meaning: BitMine (BMNR) will stop buying ETH once its holdings reach 5% of the circulating supply.
As of October 4, BitMine holds 6,016,414 ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total supply, just 89,000 ETH short of the hard cap.
At last week's pace of 15,000 ETH per week, CryptoBriefing estimates it will take 6 to 7 weeks to finish buying.
Besides stopping purchases, BitMine has already staked 5.07 million ETH, earning about 130,000 ETH annually in rewards.
Tom Lee himself said he might sell staking rewards to avoid exceeding the 5% limit.
If he really does this, the previously unwavering biggest buyer will effectively switch to a net seller role of 100,000 ETH per year.
Is the "single buyer narrative" for ETH officially coming to an end? ETFs are also seeing outflows. Who will take the baton next?BTC (2026-10-8)
The first day after the National Day holiday saw a sharp drop followed by a gradual decline. It has now fallen below the important box range I indicated. Below is the previous breakout rebound range. If this position continues to decline slowly, I believe it likely won't hold.
If 82700 continues to break down, then look to consolidate around 81700 to find demand.
Yesterday, after the market broke down, I shorted and am still holding. Unless there is a four-hour candle close above 83500, intraday trading will not focus on longs.500 Yuan Challenge to 100 Million | Live Trading Record Sharing
Full performance publicly available on homepage
Day 13
Initial capital: 500 Yuan
Current account balance: 2176 Yuan
Account withdrawals: 3500 Yuan
The 500 Yuan challenge to 100 million, today $PONS gave me a lesson.
I am 3.5x fully short, opening average price 0.409, current mark price 0.4187, floating loss 8.07%.
Originally confident that bears dominated, but a sudden rebound directly pinned down my short position.
Market view:
Short-term resistance above is around 0.417-0.419, near current levels;
Strong resistance is above 0.43;
Support below returns to my opening price at 0.409, further down is previous low defense at 0.364.
This rebound is a pullback after overselling, not a direct reversal.
But be cautious: short-term bullish momentum has started, if volume continues to expand, it could push up again;
If it can’t push higher and volume doesn’t keep up, this rally is just a bull trap, and bears will have a chance to regain control.
I choose to hold through this volatility, not panic cut losses, nor blindly add positions.
The path to 100 million is about enduring floating losses and sticking to your judgment,
But I know my bottom line; the liquidation price at 0.5012 is still far away, there is buffer space.
The market is not over, the outcome is undecided.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $ZHIPU
I’m not even going to bother with this idiot anymore. Luckily, I bought in at a low price, so I just took some profit and left.
I’m planning to head south to get some spot for the long term. As for contracts, I’ll take a bite if the price is right. It’s roughly bottoming out. The chance of dropping below 76 is low.
Compared to MINIMAX, it’s relatively moderate.
Not holding on doesn’t mean I’m not optimistic; my view still stands. Low at 80, target 100. Margin of error 5%.Damn, this small rebound is making people anxious!
Damn it!
Starting the real trading challenge at 18.78u and pushing upwards!
Currently holding a $ETH long position, with a floating profit of 16.79%.
Entered at yesterday's low, originally planning to take a small profit and exit, but held on without closing.
Watching the hourly chart slowly climb, RSI has already reached around 64, approaching the short-term overbought zone.
Right now, all market funds are waiting for the evening initial jobless claims data, hesitant to push hard.
BTC is still moving sideways, so the sustainability of Ethereum's solo upward move is questionable.
Don't blindly all in just because of this small rebound.
The short-term resistance is at the 2615 level; if it can't break through, there's a high chance it will pull back to 2540.
If the evening data is positive, there will be a chance to challenge above 2660.
At this position, it's best to hold your base position and avoid adding more chasing highs.
You can play the game, but don't lose your head.
#Tonight's initial jobless claims data is key #ETH faces short-term resistance level
$ETH $BTCBro, BTC is at a critical level again. Current price 83188.2, resistance 83831.52, support 83000, leaning bearish.
Let me tell you, don’t chase longs at this level. 83000 is a round number support; if it breaks, we’ll see 82500. I opened a short position with 5000U around 83200, stop loss at 83500, target 82500.
After losing 200,000U, I’ve learned my lesson—not holding positions without stop loss. If you’re unsure, wait for 83000 to break before following, don’t mess around in the middle.
On the road to recovery, stability is more important than speed. $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Lately, I've been focusing all my attention on the crypto market, thinking that tech stocks would also pull back.
Even though I had planned the key points in advance, I kept revising them at the last minute, ending up stuck in the crypto world and completely missing this tech rally.
Sometimes the biggest loss isn't losing money, but missing out on opportunities. I'm really frustrated with myself.😮💨
#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch
#BTCWhalePressureEases
#SolanaStocksTop4.4B 📉Market drag! SOL gives back gains, OKB resists the trend, HYPE hides reversal opportunities
$SOL｜4H
24h down 4% at current price 116, falling from 124, upgraded bullish news already priced in, purely following the big market beta
4H moving averages bearish, EMA50(119.5) resistance, MACD dead cross below zero line, OI 670 million with no deleveraging, bulls still have liquidation space
Support at 114.3/110, resistance 119.5-120. Most likely to oscillate between 110-120
Intraday range 114.5-118.5, defense at 113.5
Strategy: reduce position at rebound 119~120, do not chase shorts
$OKB｜4H
Resists the trend, current price 131, 24h -3.8%, 7-day +8.4%
OKX completed 25 billion valuation financing, stablecoin yield farming 10% APY continues to catalyze
130-131 is the breakout retest zone, holding it means continuation of uptrend; resistance 138-139 target 143
BTC holds 83000, 130-132 stabilizes for rebound; break below 128 targets 124
Intraday range 130-134 defense at 128.5
Strategy: buy the dip, do not chase highs
$HYPE｜4H
24h down 4% at current price 88.4 unlocking shares for OTC, no selling pressure on the market; Bloomberg access to quotes, institutional bullish news landing
OI 1.75 billion, funding rate annualized -14%, shorts crowded, rebound momentum exists
Support 87-88 break targets 84; resistance 92-93 target 96
Intraday range 87.5-91 defense at 86.5 Brothers, don't rush, don't rush, don't rush, repeatedly emphasizing not to rush to bottom-fish.
"Minutes Not Released Yet, Funds Withdraw First: BTC and ETH Face a Big Test at Midnight"
The Federal Reserve minutes haven't been released yet, but the market is already running ahead. BTC slid from 86693 to 83904, down 2.12% in 24 hours, with a low of 83423; ETH is weaker, quoted at 2588, down over 4%, once dipping to 2563. Volume increased on the decline, some funds don't want to wait until 2 a.m.
The macro situation is also conflicted: ISM Services PMI dropped to 54.9, but the price component surged to 74, inflation pressure hasn't eased; nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, employment is cooling again. Weak employment and sticky inflation make it the biggest uncertainty whether the Fed leans hawkish or dovish.
Two short-term scenarios:
1. Minutes lean hawkish, BTC breaks 83400, ETH loses 2560, continuing to dip;
2. Bad news lands but prices don't fall, even reclaiming 85000 and 2650, shorts get counterattacked.
Before the minutes, rushing to bottom-fish or chase shorts is unwise. It's not about courage, but patience. Wait for the price to speak first, then decide which side to stand on.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 It's still dropping here, while the US government cumulatively transferred out $554 million in assets yesterday. What are they up to...
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$BNB : 40,285.07 tokens, approximately $31.62 million
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$BTC : 4,065.6 tokens, approximately $340 million
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$WBTC : 750.18 tokens, approximately $62.33 million
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$USDT : approximately $119 million
Except for BNB, all have flowed into Coinbase Prime, purpose unknown; however, there were also large-scale deposit operations in August 2024 and August 2025, so it might be an annual wallet asset reorganization.$CASHCAT On October 8th, according to official news, Bithumb will launch AIA and CASHCAT KRW trading pairs, with trading expected to open locally at 14:00 and 15:00 respectively.
For AIA and CASHCAT, the biggest significance of launching KRW trading pairs is the addition of a trading entry point for local Korean users, while also increasing market exposure and liquidity.
Let me translate: the project team has no financial backing, only continuously sending messages to persuade retail investors to buy. There will be a rebound, but it cannot stop the continued decline. When there is an opportunity, run.$ETH The largest corporate buyer of Ethereum said they will stop buying, and the news caused the price to drop by 5%, but in reality, the market blamed the wrong party; they are just a scapegoat.
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated on the TOKEN2049 stage: they will stop increasing holdings once they reach 5% of the total supply. It sounds alarming, but looking at the scale, they bought about 15,100 ETH in the past week, while the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of about 408,000 ETH in the same period, which is ten times larger. This buyer has never been the main force driving the price up, just made a scapegoat.
More importantly, that 5% was not sold. BitMine holds about 5.07 million ETH already staked on their own platform, locking them out of circulation. Stopping accumulation is turning off the faucet, not dumping inventory; these two are very different.
The MA30 at 2,614 was lost, and the MA7 at 2,662 and MA14 at 2,673 have turned into resistance bands. The 24-hour low touched 2,536. Analysts' observation range is 2,547-2,565; if it can't recover, the target is 2,190, and this was already circulating last week.
Additionally, Glamsterdam upgraded on October 6 and has been launched on the Sepolia testnet, raising the single block gas limit from 60 million to 200 million. The technical side is raising the ceiling, but the mainnet date is not set yet; this is a slow variable and won't save the candlesticks in the next few days.BTC 83054｜ETH 2575｜SOL 116｜XRP 1.42｜BNB 772
All five major coins are pulling back together, with BNB slightly up against the trend by 0.7 points, while the rest are all green, showing a stronger divergence than expected.
The overall trend in the past week remains volatile, more like profit-taking rather than a single-day directional shift, so don’t be scared out of position by one bearish candle.
BTC holding 80000 targets 85000, which is the key battleground between bulls and bears; ETH holding 2500 targets 2700, if broken then expect 2400; SOL at 115 targets 120, relatively resistant to decline but with shrinking volume; XRP at 1.42 is weak, breaking below targets 1.35; BNB at 750 targets 780, relatively stable.
Roles: BTC sets the direction · ETH sets the strength · BNB watches rotation · XRP watches sentiment · SOL watches resilience, each playing its part.
If BTC rebounds back above 84000 tonight, this pullback will be defined as a shakeout rather than a trend reversal. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #标普500首次站上7800点，纳指再创新高 BTC price has reached the bottom of the range, with key support at 82800. The daily MACD shows a top divergence. Without a strong rebound near support, it will continue to fall. If the trend is strong, it will rebound immediately. I estimate the main force is accumulating here to lure bulls, then a large bearish candle will break 82800. If broken, it will be a false breakout on the weekly chart, a fake bull market. Today, 83500 and 84000 can still be shorted, with a stop loss at 84500.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC $ETH Funds have come in, but it still depends on how they are used
For $AAVE, I will first look at deposits and loans separately. Money deposited into the protocol indicates that someone is willing to provide funds; only if people continuously borrow and pay interest will there be subsequent income. The borrowing rate will vary with the utilization ratio and governance parameters. So when I see large deposits, I don't immediately raise my expectations for the coin price. First, I check whether this money has been lent out and how long the borrowing can last. It still dropped about 6.4% over 24 hours at midnight, so both business judgment and market performance need to be carefully considered. What’s worth studying is whether the demand can be sustained; a single transfer cannot answer this question.
For $WLD, according to the established plan, starting July 24, the daily unlock amount will decrease from about 5.1 million tokens to 2.9 million tokens. The supply pace has indeed slowed, but this change happened months ago. Treating it as new good news risks double-counting the same expectation. I’m more concerned about how much enters circulation after unlocking and how much new demand can absorb. Unlocking does not mean immediate selling, but the quantity cannot be ignored.
For $DOGE, about 5 billion new tokens are still issued annually. As the total supply expands, the proportion of new issuance will gradually decrease. This makes me more concerned about sustained demand. A short-lived hype can push prices up, but after the hype fades, how many people are still willing to keep using and buying? Everyone has seen how fast it can rise; how long it can maintain demand is the next phase worth closely watching. 🔥AI computing power hasn't stopped yet, and storage chips are about to "go public and create wealth" first! Solidigm is sprinting toward an IPO, with a valuation possibly reaching $100 billion
On October 8, it was reported that Solidigm, a subsidiary of SK Hynix, has reportedly selected Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, with JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, and UBS also joining the underwriting team, preparing for a major U.S. IPO next year. The market expects this IPO to raise about $10 billion, with a possible listing as early as 2027, and a post-investment valuation that could even reach $100 billion. However, it is still in the preparation stage, and the specific plan may still be adjusted.
On the surface, this seems like a chip company preparing to go public, but looking deeper, it actually confirms a trend: the real money-burning area of AI has long been more than just GPUs.
As AI models grow larger and more data centers are built, the demand for high-speed, large-capacity enterprise-grade SSDs is skyrocketing. Solidigm itself produces high-capacity enterprise SSDs, and these products are widely used in AI data centers and cloud computing scenarios.
In simple terms: AI handles "computing," storage handles "holding," and the crazier the computing power, the larger the data, so storage cannot fail.
Therefore, I think if Solidigm really proceeds with a valuation at the $100 billion level, the market should focus not on "another IPO coming," but on how capital is repricing AI infrastructure. $SKHY $SKHYNIX Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-10-8)
The first day after the National Day holiday saw a sharp drop followed by a gradual decline. It has now fallen below the important consolidation range I indicated. Below is the previous breakout rebound zone. If this position continues to decline slowly, I believe it likely won't hold‼️
If 82700 continues to break down, then look for consolidation and demand around 81700 below.
After the market broke down yesterday, I shorted and am still holding. Unless there is a four-hour candle close above 83500, intraday trading will not focus on longs.$NEAR price is moving, but the trading volume hasn't shown a corresponding signal, which is more worth watching than the 24-hour +9.36%.
I break it down into two scenarios: A, breaking through 5.47, confirming the short-term structure; B, falling below 4.903, invalidating the original judgment, with the next observation point shifting to 4.741.
Current price is 5.421, 24-hour +9.36%; 1-hour and 4-hour indicators are relatively strong, with volume about 0.36 times the average of the last 20 bars.
No preset conclusion, just watching which condition happens first. Which scenario do you think is more likely to occur first, A or B?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull Talk.TOKEN2049,
The big shots collectively released good news:
Eric Trump, the second son of the King of Understanding, said AI is the fastest-growing engine in crypto;
A Robinhood executive said the company bought $25 million worth of $BTC on its balance sheet;
CoinDesk revealed that Wells Fargo is negotiating with Kraken's parent company Payward to provide liquidity for the bank's crypto trading.
But why did $BTC drop?
On stage, they shout slogans and good news,
Off stage, the market crashes hard? 🤣#标普500首次站上7800点，纳指再创新高
Recently, the S&P 500 surpassed 7800 points for the first time, and the Nasdaq also hit a new high. This level is actually quite worth pondering.
In my personal view, on the positive side, the continuous rise of the US stock market indicates that global capital's risk appetite remains. Whether it's stocks or highly volatile assets like crypto, the overall liquidity environment hasn't tightened significantly, which theoretically supports sentiment in the crypto space. However, conversely, with the index reaching this level, the market's expectations for subsequent positive news are already quite full. Once upcoming economic data or policy signals fall slightly short of expectations, and profit-taking at high levels concentrates, highly volatile crypto assets often fall faster than stocks.
It doesn't necessarily mean a one-way move immediately; we take it step by step. The tug-of-war between both sides is still ongoing. Everyone can pay close attention to whether the US stock market can hold this level. Feel free to discuss in the comments whether you think this environment of sustained US stock strength will have a more positive or negative impact on the crypto market going forward. $ETH 📊 Macro sell-off attack! It's not just the crypto market falling alone; next week's CPI will set the direction
$BTC｜Daily chart
The Fed minutes were more hawkish than expected, with unanimous support for a rate hike in September, and most expect another hike by year-end. Bitcoin dropped from 86000 to break through 83000, currently priced between 83100-83500, down 2.7% in 24h.
124,000 people liquidated over 700 million USD, with bulls accounting for 90%. The 85000-87000 range, which had been consolidating for 7 days, has become a trapped zone.
Global major assets are falling simultaneously, indicating macro deleveraging. Robinhood's 25 million USD BTC inflow is a weak positive.
✅ Core lifeline at 83000; holding this level could see a rebound to 85000-86000, breaking below points to 81000.
Intraday range 83000-84300, defense at 82600. Key focus on 10.14 CPI.
$ETH｜Daily chart
Weaker, down 4.8% in 24h, currently at 2570, low at 2544. ETH/BTC rate at 0.0308 is a new low for this phase, with Q3 profit-taking and ETF outflows exerting double pressure.
2500 is the lifeline this week, MACD shows a death cross above zero line.
If Bitcoin stabilizes, only between 2500-2520 is there a chance for an oversold rebound, targeting 2630-2700; breaking 2500 points to 2380-2400.
👉 Not recommended to bottom-fish immediately; wait for stabilization signals at 2520-2530.
Intraday range 2544-2630, defense at 2498.