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PONS really took the roller coaster into the babala position this time. $PONS
The 0.69 short position is still held.
Earlier it surged above 0.74, giving the shorts a hard time; now OKEx perpetual has fallen back to around 0.627, with the underlying price about 9% lower than my entry point, so the short position is entering a relatively comfortable profit zone.
This round of decline is not hard to understand.
PONS's previous rise was combined with buyback and burn, platform revenue, exchange listing, and short covering, with very concentrated positive factors. But after the price quickly surged, as long as new buying can't keep up, the high-level profit-taking will start to realize.
Now 0.70 has been lost, and there is no effective support formed around 0.66, indicating the previous rebound structure has clearly weakened, and the market has temporarily shifted from a short squeeze to a high-level pullback.
Next, babala mainly watches two levels.
On the downside, first look at 0.62–0.60, which is both short-term support and a psychological round number. If 0.60 breaks further, the shorts may test the 0.56–0.58 area.
On the upside, watch 0.65–0.66; if the rebound can't hold here, it means selling pressure remains; but if it climbs back to 0.69–0.70, the short position logic needs to be reassessed, because PONS's buyback mechanism still exists and could trigger another short squeeze at any time.
So I will temporarily keep this position, but I won't blindly fantasize about a waterfall just because it has just started to profit.
The pressure PONS put on babala during the rise is now being gradually returned.Yushu is completely empty, nothing much to say.
A company making remote-controlled robots, rushed to market like a duck forced onto a shelf; if not empty now, then when?
Look at how absurd this valuation is. The issuance P/E ratio is 219 times, while the industry average is only 38 times, nearly six times higher. To put it bluntly, you're not buying a robot, you're buying a story about the future. The story sounds good, but someone has to pay for it.
The performance has already turned sour. Q1 revenue growth dropped directly from 332% to 68%, and net profit excluding non-recurring items plummeted 52.55%. Profits halved, growth crashed—does this still count as a growth stock? This means the story can't continue.
What's the funniest part? Remote control. Wang Xingxing himself said that robot autonomy is simple; remote control is for ultimate speed. To translate: the impressive boxing and martial arts on the display are actually controlled by an engineer holding a remote behind the scenes. When Lei Jun visited, he kicked once, the robot stepped back a few steps and stood firm, looking intimidating. But look closely, the operator’s remote in hand is glaringly obvious.
Dishwashing, sweeping, folding clothes—all are remotely controlled by people behind the scenes. You spend tens of thousands to buy a robot for home, but still have to serve it holding a remote?
Some say remote control is just a transitional phase, it's common in the industry. Fine, I accept that. But selling me a remote-controlled toy at a 219 P/E ratio is just too much.
IPO is the peak; if you don’t short it, who will?$ZEC It's still rising, can you still short it? 1,535。 The intraday high was $1,589, the low was $1,438—a 150-dollar fluctuation in one day. This isn't a market, it's a roller coaster. A month ago, no one dared touch it. Now, it's up about 170% in a month, constantly hitting all-time highs, and the $1,500 mark has been pierced like paper. You ask if you can go short? First, see why it is rising. Three forces are pushing it at the same time: first, real money is entering the market. As of the week ending September 18, Zcash spot ETF saw net inflows of about $98.2M; Since Grayscale's ZCSH launched in August, cumulative inflows have exceeded $233M. This isn't retail investors speculating—it's institutional funds lining up to get on board. Second, upgrade expectations are fermenting. The NU7 upgrade is expected to launch on November 5, aiming to shorten block times and improve trading efficiency. Even before the positive news materializes, the imagination remains, and the market's favorite thing to buy is "good news that hasn't happened yet." Third, the trend itself becomes the reason. After breaking $1,500, every pullback is quickly bought back, and bears are driven away again and again—this is a typical strong trend market. But the risk is already written into the price. A 170% increase in a month means chips are extremely concentrated at high levels; A rapid rally above $1,500 indicates sentiment is ahead of the fundamentals. At this level, chasing long stocks fears catching the last blow, short selling fears another push. Once capital shifts,Many airdrop projects' Alphas are liquidity traps, but this AR trade is purer, with market funds already indicating the direction. The moving averages are in a bullish alignment and volume is rising in sync; there is no MACD top divergence on the four-hour chart, and the bears currently lack fuel for a counterattack. The liquidation chart shows a large accumulation of short stop-loss orders between 4.74 and 4.84. Given the current momentum, once the price pushes into this pool, it will trigger a chain of squeezes.
Just turned the car into the alley of an old neighborhood to avoid collection calls, but my eyes are still glued to the intraday chart on my phone. This kind of volume breakout after consolidation is most feared for hesitation back and forth.
At the current price around 4.628, you can directly enter a market order with half your position; if it pulls back to 4.56–4.58, add to your position. Set stop-loss uniformly below 4.47 to avoid being stopped out by spikes and leave room. The first take-profit target is at the 4.78 resistance level; after breaking through, reduce your position and target the remaining position at the 4.84 liquidation zone. If it holds above 4.84, the next target is 4.95. Defense must be proactive; don’t turn a breakeven trade into a liquidation.
$ARB
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
@OKX星球 Don't simply call this rebound "bad news landing equals good news."
The rate hike has landed, but the market rise is not "risk relief," it's the breath after the bad news has been dumped.
I see three odd things:
The 10-year US Treasury yield just fell back then nudged back near 5%, so the cost of money hasn't really dropped;
Oil prices are still above 100, the Strait of Hormuz is still unsettled, so the inflation tension hasn't eased;
The yen fell after the rate hike, and arbitrage funds haven't fled at all—what everyone is rushing for is "a shift to dovishness," not a true digestion.
This rise is not supported by volume. It rose sharply, but there isn't much real money underneath—typical short covering plus sentiment repair, not new money entering.
To put it plainly, whether this strong momentum can hold now depends on two things: long-term yields not rising, and oil prices not jumping. If either goes wrong, there will be a pause.
Note: The above is only personal opinion and not any investment advice.
#BTC returns to $80,000, capital conditions show recovery
#SEC tokenized stock innovation exemption lands, UNI surges over 21% intraday
#ZEC nears $1600, long-short battles intensify This wave was purely due to good market sentiment, casually throwing some gold coins, and they just happened to hit my head. During the bottoming process in the session, no matter how much $USELESS was hammered, it wouldn't go down, so I kept an eye on USELESS's buy orders.
The buy orders gradually strengthened, with people catching on below. I only said at the time: try going long at this position, but don't overdo it; if it goes wrong, just exit. Risk control is done upfront, that's called being rational; cutting losses later is called decisive action.
Later it pulled from 0.16315 up to 0.27213, with a floating profit of +666.68%. The timing was right, and this profit felt good. The earlier part was really dragging, but the outcome was really sweet.
I first closed 70%, pocketing the bulk. The remaining 30% is protected at cost price; if it continues to rise, let the profit run, and if it pulls back, don't let the gains become uncomfortable.
Being out of position isn't a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and I will notify you immediately. There will be more opportunities later, don't rush.
$SNDK $BNB The Trump family holds a 20% stake in American Bitcoin, a mining company with 8,000 $BTC sitting on its books. This news is a comfort to bulls and a warning to bears.
Mining companies hoarding coins is not the same as funds hoarding coins. Funds buying coins have to answer to clients and face redemptions if prices fall. The coins held by mining companies come from production costs, and as long as electricity costs are manageable, they have no forced selling schedule.
So what really matters is not the holding numbers, but their mining costs and debt structure. If the cost line is far below the current price, these 8,000 coins are long-term chips that won’t move. Conversely, if financing costs rise, they could become the most determined sellers.
I can’t figure out this calculation, so I’ll keep an eye on the cash and debt items in their next financial report first.
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $BTC Many people reflexively shout "greed peak" when they see the Fear and Greed Index at 71, which is a typical misconception—the high index only indicates overheated sentiment, not an immediate trend reversal. What truly determines the short-term direction is whether funds continue to be added along this main line. Currently, the market sentiment is in the greed zone, with funds clearly concentrating on high-volatility, strong-performing assets. $ARB is the selected target in this round of sector rotation.
From a technical perspective, $AR is currently priced at 4.636, up 51.01% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 42.0M USDT, showing healthy volume-price coordination. MA5=4.5516 crosses above MA20=4.03845, with a complete bullish moving average alignment; MACD histogram +0.03471 maintains bullish momentum; RSI=73.4 has entered the overbought zone, and the upper Bollinger Band at 4.8542 forms the first resistance. The funding rate is +0.0020%, a mild positive value, indicating the bulls are not overcrowded, suggesting there is still room for adding positions rather than a trap of chasing highs. The amplitude of the last 30 candlesticks is about 41.26%, indicating high volatility, so positions must be light.
Directionally, I am bullish; a pullback that does not break MA5 is an opportunity. Entry reference is in the 4.40–4.62 range, close to MA5 for support; take profit 1 is at 4.85 (Bollinger upper band resistance), take profit 2 at 5.10 (extension after breaking the upper band); stop loss is set at 4.02 (below MA20, breaking which would damage the bullish structure). $ETH setup
Spot ~$2.62K. Range high.
Long bias only if $2.60K holds on a close.
Invalidation: daily close under $2.45K. Hard stop $2.39K.
Targets:
1) $2.62K hold = $2.76K
2) $2.76K break = $3.00K stretch
Don’t long a wick into $2.62K.
Wait for the hold. No hold = fade back to $2.50K–$2.45K.
#DailyOrbit $PIEVERSE perpetual 20x long position, opened at 1.0049, now at 1.5565, floating profit +1097.82%.
On September 7, PIEVERSE surged violently by 23% breaking the previous high. AI Agent sector funds rotated, Pieverse switched narrative from old TimeFi to AI Agent payment infrastructure. I positioned long at the low of 1.0049 with a stop loss at 0.95. Light position with 20x leverage.
Trailing stop moved up to 1.45. Letting profits run.
⚠️ Risk: PIEVERSE token concentration is extremely high (top 5 wallets control 73.47%), and 71%-76.9% of tokens are pending unlock. With 20x leverage, a ±5% move triggers liquidation, beware of main players pumping then dumping. $ZEC $AKE $ETH is not a cheaper $BTC. It is a different claim: fees, staking, and product flow.
If those stay flat while $BTC holds, $ETH can lag for weeks. That lag is information.
Do not average down just because the logo is familiar$DOOD, 20x long position entered, opening price at 0.001624, current mark price 0.001793, floating profit +208.12%.
Before opening the position, reviewed the 1-hour chart; the 5, 10, and 20 moving averages were tightly intertwined around 0.001624 for a long time, accumulating enough momentum. Then the market saw a volume surge and rally, with the moving averages diverging accordingly, forming a standard bullish alignment.
The bullish momentum was fully released. When the moving averages completed a golden cross and the price broke through the critical 0.001624 level accordingly, I followed the trend. The stop loss was placed below the cluster of moving averages. Using 20x leverage, I strictly controlled the position size, only allocating 2% of the position to participate in this trade.
The moving averages forming a bullish alignment is a signal that the trend is about to accelerate, with the price steadily advancing along the 5-day moving average. The trailing stop has already been raised to provide early protection, avoiding any potential pullbacks or shakeouts, thus securing the hard-earned floating profit. $ZEC $BTC #AI Giants Face Antitrust Lawsuit Over Coordinated Slowdown
Just as AI giants called for a “slowdown,” an antitrust lawsuit arrived!
On September 18, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California accepted a lawsuit against Anthropic, $OPENAI, SpaceXAI, and Google. The plaintiffs accuse the four companies of coordinating a slowdown in AI development under the guise of AI safety, allegedly restricting competition and harming consumer interests. Note, these are only allegations by the plaintiffs; the court has not yet determined any illegality.
The controversy stems from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s proposal to “set the pace for AI frontiers”: introducing independent safety assessments to synchronize model capability improvements with protective measures. Supporters worry about AI getting out of control, while skeptics fear that if leading companies unify the development pace, new players will find it harder to catch up.
For the market, the real focus is whether demand for computing power will change. If the training pace of frontier models slows, order expectations for $NVDA, $AVGO, $SKHYNIX, and $MU might face pressure; however, safety testing, inference deployment, and enterprise applications still require substantial computing power, so “slowdown” should not be equated directly with a collapse in AI capital expenditure.
The key issue in this lawsuit is the boundary between industry safety collaboration and market competition restriction. The next phase of AI competition is not just about how powerful models are, but also about who sets the rules and who can participate in the competition.🐕 $DOGE had a strong session today. The move played out close to the structure I was watching, but I’m trying to keep emotions out of the process—green or red, the plan stays the plan. My current DOGE position is around $238K, roughly $11K above the starting capital. I haven’t made any major changes. Being in profit doesn't automatically mean it’s time to add or close; I’m waiting for a clearer setup before changing the position. I also watched several altcoins outperform today, but with most o$RIVER perpetual 20x short position, opened at 2.162, currently at 1.246, floating profit +846.87%.
Capital and narrative: River focuses on chain abstraction + satUSD stablecoin narrative. But the market has already voted with its feet. The perpetual contract funding rate is extremely negative, with a leverage stress score as high as 0.694 (high risk). 83% of liquidations in the past 30 days were longs, indicating continuous capital squeeze.
Narrative retreat + leverage liquidation resonance. I shorted at 2.162 following the trend, with a stop loss at 2.3. Light position with 20x leverage.
Trailing stop loss pushed to 1.35. Holding position following the short trend.
⚠️ Risk: RIVER tokens are highly concentrated (5 wallets hold 94%), and recently there was listing on South Korea's Coinone and Hayes promoting $100 hype. With 20x leverage, a ±5% move triggers liquidation, so be cautious of sudden short squeezes. $AKE $ARB BTC continues to show strength, reclaiming the $80K area and pushing toward $83K despite a mixed macro backdrop. I’m watching two setups now: 📈 Scenario 1 — Bullish Continuation If BTC holds above $82.5K–$83K and turns that zone into support, the next areas to watch are $84.5K–$86K, with momentum potentially extending beyond that if volume expands. 📉 Scenario 2 — Rejection A quick move above $83K followed by a rejection could send BTC back toward $80K–$81K. Losing that region would increase thThis setup reminds me of previous tightening cycles where the first rate increase didn't immediately stop risk assets from bouncing. But whether this move develops into a sustained trend still needs confirmation. Right now, the earlier short-heavy positioning has been reduced quickly. Spot and ETF demand have improved, while market sentiment has climbed from roughly 58 toward 72. Capital is moving from the sidelines back into the market, but for now I’d treat this as recovery confirmation rather📝 Today's share on $ZEC
After reaching 1594, ZEC pulled back. Is shorting now catching a flying knife or topping out?
Conclusion: Technically, it's severely overbought, but under a short squeeze structure, shorting on the left side carries extremely high risk.
📊 Market status:
ZEC hit a high of $1594 today, then pulled back to around $1534, still up 5.79% in 24 hours. It has risen over 183% in the past month and over 3000% in a year. The daily RSI is around 71, in the overbought zone.
⚠️ Why shorting now is very risky:
The core driver of this rise is a short squeeze. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun directly calls it a "narrative short squeeze"—driven by exchange listings, speculative sentiment, and forced short covering, not fundamental improvements. The largest short, Garrett Jin, holds nearly 38,000 ZEC, with unrealized losses expanded to $33.83 million, liquidation price at 4790. As long as the price continues to rise, short covering will form a self-reinforcing spiral.
📈 Key levels:
🟢 Support: 1450-1470, break below targets 1400-1420
🔴 Resistance: 1584-1600, breakout targets 1650-1700
⚠️ Risk level: 1200, previous breakout structure
🧠 Logic:
Futures open interest has surged above 2.6 billion, the futures-to-spot ratio once reached 9:1, leverage is amplifying everything. Shorting in a short squeeze market is like picking up coins in front of a bulldozer.
#ZEC逼近1600美元，多空博弈升温 The live account is now around $680+, compared with roughly $390 after last night’s withdrawal. The balance has climbed steadily without forcing too many trades. Today was mostly a choppy session. I had other things to handle, so I stayed relatively inactive instead of chasing every move. Missing some setups is fine — protecting the mindset matters more. 🟢 $ETH: Added a small position around $2,645. 🟠 $BCH: Took partial profit near $263, then added again around an average of $252 and trimmed s$BASED perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.07016, currently at 0.06597, floating profit +119.44%.
Technical analysis: BASED faced resistance near 0.07 during rebound, failing to effectively break previous resistance and then retreated. The moving average system still shows a bearish alignment, with weakening MACD momentum. Price is seeking support around 0.066, overall in a weak rebound structure within a downtrend channel.
Shorting logic: Short at rebound weakness. I entered short at 0.07016 (rebound high/resistance confirmation), with stop loss set at 0.074 to prevent spikes. Light position with 20x leverage.
Trailing stop moved to 0.068 to lock in profits. Support zone below at 0.062-0.064.
⚠️ Risk: BASED is a Base ecosystem Meme coin with extreme volatility. If there is sudden positive news in the Base ecosystem or a market reversal, short squeezes are very likely. With 20x leverage, a ±5% move triggers liquidation, so be cautious of spikes. $AKE $ONE +3799% The least valuable thing is that it cannot be copied.
Many of the people who liquidated 120,000 $ETH on September 16th also judged the direction correctly, but used excessive leverage at the wrong time. The 1909 position survived half due to its entry point and half due to luck.
With 100x leverage, a 1% adverse move results in liquidation. No matter how impressive the unrealized profit number looks, it is only a snapshot of the mark price at a certain moment, not realized gains.
The 2634 area is a dense chip zone from early September and also the resistance level of the previous high at 2660. There is only one rule for position discipline: let the stop loss follow the price, not the emotions following the leverage.
$BTC $SOL #BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 The U.S. House of Representatives is promoting strategic Bitcoin reserves, Coinbase has already joined the discussions, and the SEC has also approved a five-year exemption for tokenized shares. Policy is indeed moving, but both are still in the discussion and approval stage, and implementation is still far off.
On the capital side, it's even more direct: spot BTC ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of 159 million, while BlackRock IBIT alone drew 183 million. The single-day data doesn't fully explain the trend, but I agree that institutional buying is still in the early stages.
Morgan Stanley and VanEck are talking about $100,000 next year. These forecasts are just for reference—you don't spend money on orders, only inflows do.
$BTC Holding the key level and rebounding past 80,000—policy and capital are a double resonance. But whether the 80,000 level can hold still depends on whether the ETF's net inflows will continue in the coming days, not just by saying, "Hold tight, don't panic."
$ETH $ZEC Do you think policy expectations or capital moved first this wave?
#BTC重返8万美元, funding conditions have recovered
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地, UNI rose more than 21% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $BTC $ETH intraday Almost none of the news BTC received in the past week was comfortable:
The CLARITY Act was blocked in the Senate.
The Fed raised interest rates by 25bp.
The BOJ raised interest rates.
The 10Y yield briefly surpassed 5%.
Oil prices remain high.
As a result, BTC not only didn’t continue to crash,
but instead bounced back from around $75K to:
$81,238.
What’s really interesting is the upward structure.
In the past 24 hours approximately:
$238M BTC Shorts were liquidated.
The entire Crypto Market’s Short Liquidations exceeded:
$470M.
At the same time, the US Spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about:
+$159.5M.
So this isn’t simply a case of:
"Suddenly good news → BTC surges."
It’s more like:
Sell orders couldn’t push prices down
→ Spot Buyers returned
→ New progress appeared in CFTC regulatory path
→ $78K was broken through
→ Shorts were forced to cover
→ The $80K psychological barrier was breached.
If it quickly falls back to $78K,
then a significant part of this move might just be a Leverage Reset.
The strongest signal in the market is never:
Prices rise because of good news.
But rather:
There’s been a lot of bad news, yet suddenly no one wants to keep selling.
Now BTC is exactly at the point to test this statement.Your definition of the triple roles is the clearest version this year.
More accurate than those writing research reports, summed up in one sentence:
*$BTC is the ballast stone — managing risk appetite*
The $433M inflow into the ETF you mentioned today is proof. BTC stabilizes at $80K-$81K, and as long as $77K-$78K doesn't break, institutions dare to move money in. If BTC is unstable, ETH/SOL won't move either. The $80K invalidation level you mentioned is the ballast stone's draft line; if it breaks, the whole ship rocks.
*$ETH is the incubator — managing narratives*
#CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve and #UNI21%RallyOnSECRule perfectly validate this. The SEC approved a 5-year exemption for tokenized US stocks, directly benefiting ETH's RWA; UNI rose 21%, ETH gained 6.7% today, outperforming BTC's 5.9%. The ETF's +$143M inflow is also institutions voting for the narrative. Your $665B RWA perpetual trading volume shows the incubator is on ETH.
*$SOL is the traffic gateway — managing new users*
ETF inflow today was $0, missing out, but that doesn't mean weakness. SOL's logic has never been about ETFs; it's about on-chain social, gaming, and memes attracting newcomers. Your ZEC trade doubled $1440; newcomers are first attracted by chains like SOL before looking at BTC/ETH.
*The linkage of the three is your entire day's trading today:*
- BTC holds $81K → risk appetite$MMT I didn't make any judgment, just held on a bit longer, didn't expect it to really pay off.
Opened the market this morning, MMT pulled back and held steady, someone bought at the bottom of MMT, I advised not to make rash moves, the structure is intact.
From 0.1310 to 0.1656, unrealized profit +526.71%, a big gain, this profit feels good.
Cashed out 70% first, kept the remaining 30% protected at cost price. Risk control is done upfront, that's called being rational; if it turns to loss, cut it, that's called decisive action. Hold if the trend is intact, run if it breaks, don't fall in love with stocks.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. The market doesn't lack opportunities, it lacks patience.
$ZEC $SOL The current market structure bears some resemblance to March 2022, when Bitcoin continued climbing during the early stages of the Fed's rate-hiking cycle. This shows that monetary tightening doesn't always trigger an immediate sell-off. However, whether the current rally can develop into a sustained uptrend remains uncertain. Several short-term indicators are improving. Previous short positions have been rapidly squeezed, ETF inflows are supporting spot demand, and market sentiment has climbed f🚨US crypto legislation advancing on two fronts! New variables added to BTC's long-term logic!
On September 16, two major committees in the US House of Representatives consecutively advanced crypto-related bills:
📜 The "Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act" passed 38:5, focusing on crypto taxation, mining, staking, and reporting rules.
₿ The "US Reserve Modernization Act" advanced 28:21, planning to incorporate strategic Bitcoin reserves into the federal legal framework and proposing BTC holdings for at least 20 years.
One manages taxation, the other manages reserves! US crypto regulation is moving from policy statements to institutional construction. 🔥
But note: committee advancement ≠ final legislation, and the reserve act does not mean the government will immediately buy large amounts of coins.
In the short term, watch interest rates, liquidity, and funding sentiment; in the long term, watch regulatory implementation and institutional participation.
Policy is a slow variable, capital is a fast variable! Don't rush to chase news; subsequent bill progress, capital flows, and BTC key support are the real signals worth monitoring. 📈
$BTC $ETH
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 This week's market was the opposite of most people's intuition. On 9/16, the Fed raised rates by 25bp (3.75%–4.00%); on 9/18, the Bank of Japan raised rates another 25bp to 1.25%—both major central banks tightened simultaneously within three days. According to the old script, risk assets should be under pressure; But BTC actually pulled back from near -, ETH also returned to 400+, almost in sync with the rise and fall. Public market interpretations focus on several points: rate hikes have been fully priced in (FedWatch probability over 90%), the US-Japan interest rate spread has barely changed (each adding 25bp), US Treasury yields are not out of control, ETF flows have turned positive, and bears have been liquidated—the rise is not "good news from a rate hike," but a relief rally of "negative news taking effect + no bigger shock." @baek_min0506 A recent summary of the "two profit-making systems in the crypto world" is clearer when viewed alongside this week's market trends: Information gap: While others are still discussing whether rate hikes will crash the market, funds are already pricing in "boots falling"; By the time news headlines flood the screen, short-term rally is often halfway gone. Cognitive difference: When others see "double rate hikes = inevitably fall," they see the structure of interest rate spreads, expected gaps, and liquidity positions; When the old macro template fails, depth of understanding is more valuable than reaction speed. Price gap: Most people only chase when prices rise, cut when prices fall. They have neither information advantage nor cognitive framework, just paying tuition for the first two types. This week's $BTC and $E$OPN perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.05296, currently 0.04707, unrealized profit +556.08%.
Market observation: OPN has been continuously crashing since its ATH of $0.518 (launch day 2026/3/5), retracing over 91% to the current $0.044-$0.047 range, remaining in a long-term downtrend channel. Price is consistently suppressed by descending moving averages (MA20/MA60), MACD death cross persists, RSI is at mid-low levels (no bottom divergence observed). Every rebound to the 0.05-0.055 area is met with resistance and falls back—a typical "unlock pricing" downtrend structure: airdrop linear vesting over 7 months continuously increases circulating supply, buyers cannot absorb the new selling pressure. Current price 0.04707 is testing support at 0.043-0.044.
Rebound resistance plus unlocking selling pressure resonance. I added to the short at 0.05296 (rebound to resistance zone), stop loss set at 0.058 covering liquidity. Strict position control with 50x leverage.
Current price 0.04707, trailing stop moved up to 0.050. Key support at 0.043-0.044 (recent lows), break below targets 0.035-0.040. $AKE $SNDK #ZEC Approaches $1,600, Bull-Bear Battle Heats Up
$ZEC The core conflict in the bull-bear battle lies in the confrontation between derivatives leverage and institutional capital flows. The short side has already suffered a large-scale collapse: a whale holding a short position for half a month was forced to close a $24.43 million position at $1,548, incurring a loss of $10.68 million. This whale previously had a win rate as high as 79%.
However, on-chain data reveals another clue: a major whale address deposited $15 million ZEC to Coinbase for the first time in 10 months, with a total transfer scale of $363 million, signaling profit-taking that cannot be ignored.
ETF capital flows provide a mid-term anchor. Since the Grayscale ZCSH listing on August 25, cumulative net inflows have exceeded $233 million. On September 17, a single-day inflow of $46.6 million was recorded, the second-largest daily inflow since listing, and a 3-for-1 share split is planned for September 28.
Technically, the upper Bollinger Band resistance lies between $1,657 and $1,663, with the RSI (14) reaching a deeply overbought level of 75.51. The 4-hour chart maintains a bullish MACD golden cross structure. The $1,580 to $1,600 range is a key resistance zone, with multiple attempts to break through met with selling pressure; below, $1,400 is structural support, and a breakdown could expose the $1,250 to $1,300 range. Short-term short squeeze momentum has not been fully released, but chasing highs in an overbought state carries significant risk. Waiting for a pullback to confirm support is more prudent.Out of 30 validators, 28 nodded, so this amendment basically passed.
To be honest, my first reaction was: what does this have to do with me? I'm not a market maker.
But after thinking carefully, it actually does matter.
Previously, when arbitraging on XRP, the biggest fear was one transaction succeeding while the other failed, leaving both stuck and the money hanging in limbo. The Batch feature, simply put, bundles up to eight transactions together — either all succeed or all fail.
For market makers, this isn't just a technical upgrade; it's a tool to lose less money.
It will activate around September 29, and the support rate is already sufficient.
Will the short-term price move? I think don't overthink it; this isn't news to pump the price.
What’s really useful is that market making and settlement efficiency on XRP will improve a bit, and maybe a little more capital will be willing to come in.
But just a little.
Last time I saw the words "major upgrade" I rushed in and ended up stuck for two months. This time I’ve learned my lesson: watch first, don’t act.
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ $XRP Altcoins surged wildly, but it's not yet an "altcoin season"
ARB +26.6%, NEAR +24.3%, SOL +11.8%, ETH +7.2% — almost all in the green today, with altcoins clearly outperforming BTC (+6.2%).
But looking calmly: the 90-day altseason index is only 43/100, not even close to the "season" threshold (usually 75+). ETH/BTC is still lagging behind the broader market this round, indicating that funds are more "catching up" rather than "rotating".
To truly confirm an altcoin season, we need to see ETH/BTC break key levels and BTC dominance continuously dropping. Neither has happened yet. So for today's move, I treat it as an elastic release within a rebound, not a trend reversal.
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 Don't rush to admit mistakes on the weekend rebound. $BTC stands above 81,000, $ETH returns near 2,600; it looks like shorts are being squeezed, but more like an emotional recovery after bad news has settled.
The news is not favorable. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, the dot plot remains hawkish, and expectations for another hike by year-end persist.
The Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed, delaying regulatory implementation again. Around the rate hike date, spot ETFs saw outflows totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, indicating institutional buying is unstable. The Fear & Greed Index has just passed 70, with longs crowded in the short term, not shorts.
On the chart, this week's low remains near 75,000, and 81,000–82,000 is the resistance zone left from the August rebound. ETH is weaker; the upgrade is postponed to Q4, and ETH/BTC has not independently strengthened. Weekend liquidity is thin; short squeezes can happen quickly but can also reverse just as fast.
For now, I’m not closing my short positions, treating the rebound as a window to add: watch BTC for a break below 80,000, then 76,000; watch ETH for a drop below 2,600, then 2,400. Manage position size well and place stop losses above the rebound highs.
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21%
#ZEC逼近1600美元，多空博弈升温 OKB continues shifting from a simple exchange fee-discount token into a broader utility asset.
OKX's move toward X Layer and its new AI marketplace requires staking $OKB , creating real demand sinks rather than speculative hype alone. Combined with recurring Earn campaigns that reward holders, OKB's value proposition increasingly rests on ecosystem usage, not just exchange volume.
This utility-driven model could support steadier long-term demand.
#BTCBackAbove80K #UNI21%RallyOnSECRule You have thoroughly explained the essence of this wave of $ZEC.
*"The more shorts there are, the higher the price rises is no coincidence" — this is the fuel logic behind a short squeeze.*
You doubled your $ZEC from $1440 not by luck, but because you understood what others didn’t:
Others think: *It’s risen so much, it’s time to short.*
You think: *The more shorts there are, the more forced liquidation buy orders there will be.*
Exactly right. Every short position has its stop loss above. When the price hits that, liquidations on the scale of $192 million happen just like BTC did yesterday — forced liquidations turn into market buy orders, pushing the price up further, triggering another round of liquidations. This is called short fuel.
So you say:
> *Until the shorts are fully liquidated, the $ZEC top is not decided by the bulls.*
A golden phrase. The top is formed by short covering orders, not by bulls buying up.
And your calmest mindset point:
> *The 600u in the account is not the focus. The 760u withdrawn is the part that has already landed.*
This is the "lock in profits" discipline you mentioned this morning. Unrealized gains are just numbers; the $760u withdrawn is the real profit. Many people are still calculating how much they’ve earned when ZEC hits $1600, but you’ve already taken out your principal plus profit, leaving the remaining 600u as letting the bullets fly.
Now $ZEC is approaching 1600, the long-short battle heats up, just like your BTC watching $82K:
- As long as shorts aren’t dead, the top will continue to be pushed up by short covering buy orders
- But no new shorts are coming in,Rushing in to chase longs when seeing a Fear and Greed Index of 71 is the most common way to lose money in this market cycle. A greedy reading does not indicate a top, but it means the margin for error is narrowing — at this point, you should focus on structure, not sentiment.
$PENDLE is currently priced at 2.725, up 1.49% in 24h, with a trading volume of 7.8M USDT. The moving averages show MA5=2.7432 has crossed above MA20=2.67205, maintaining a bullish alignment; the MACD histogram is +0.0006605, staying positive, and RSI=59.2 is in a neutral to slightly strong zone, not yet overbought, indicating upward momentum remains but it’s no longer cheap. The Bollinger Bands are [2.55781, 2.78629], with price running close to the upper band. The 30-candle amplitude is about 12.04%, and with increased volatility, chasing highs carries obvious risks. The funding rate is +0.0099%, positive, showing long positions are somewhat crowded — this is the only signal to be cautious about.
On the broader market level, a greedy environment with a Fear and Greed Index of 71 usually favors high Beta altcoin rotation, but if BTC pulls back, the retracement for assets like PENDLE will be several times that of the majors. Strategically, do not chase highs; wait for a pullback near MA20 to buy.
The directional bias is bullish. $ETH's recent surge was indeed strong, with the price breaking through 2650 from around 2630, and the bears' attempts to suppress it were quickly eaten up by the bulls.
Now the key point: around 2652, it has already touched the upper Bollinger Band, and there is resistance from the previous high at 2663 above.
If 2663 breaks out with volume and holds steady, the short-term upward space may continue to open; but if it repeatedly fails to break through at the highs, watch out for profit-taking pullbacks.
In short: the red candlestick is strong, but don't get carried away. The real direction depends on whether 2663 can be effectively broken.
Do you think $ETH can hold above 2663 this time?👀
#BTCBackAbove80K #FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #UNI21%RallyOnSECRule Midnight Market: $BTC stands above 81,000, but the real focus isn't the price.
Around midnight Taiwan time, Bitcoin traded above $81,000, reaching an intraday high of $81,702, maintaining above the 80,000 mark continuously for the first time since September 7. Ethereum simultaneously broke through $2,600, rising about 6.3% in 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index jumped from 56 yesterday to 71, entering the "Greed" zone.
The real new development at midnight is on the regulatory front. The CFTC has submitted two crypto market rulemaking proposals to the White House Office of Management and Budget, one of which involves creating a new category of "designated contract market" that allows unregistered crypto exchanges to offer leveraged trading under CFTC oversight without waiting for new legislation to pass. This is an alternative regulatory approach bypassing legislative gridlock after the Senate's failure to pass the CLARITY Act. In the past four days, a total of 2,400 BTC, worth about $194 million, have been transferred into Binance. Large exchange inflows are usually interpreted as a potential precursor to selling pressure, but given the current short squeeze context, they could also be hedging or liquidity management operations, making the direction uncertain for now.
The most critical area is above. Glassnode points out that a dense cluster of short liquidations is forming in the $83,000 to $86,000 range. These short positions have accumulated over weeks, and if the price reaches this area, it could trigger a second wave of forced liquidations driving a rapid surge. Conversely, the $81,000 to $82,000 range itself is a short-term resistance zone, and breaking through requires volume support. Bitcoin has strongly returned above $81,000 under the fourfold resonance of negative news exhaustion,CFTC regulatory rules submitted to the White House,short squeeze,and ETF fund inflows. $82,000 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears—breaking through it could challenge the ETF average cost zone of $85,638; if blocked here, attention should be paid to the pullback support at $79,500 $80,000. The short-term overbought signal is obvious, and chasing highs carries significant risk.A larger position could have ended in liquidation during this aggressive rally. But here's my take: A sharp rally doesn't automatically mean a new bull market has begun. BTC recently reclaimed $80,000, while SOL has pushed higher alongside the broader market. However, the macro picture remains uncertain. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps on September 16, and markets are still pricing in the possibility of another hike in October. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, keep$AKE Honestly, I stared at the screen for a long time, not knowing whether to laugh or cry.
Let's look at the market first.
$AKE Today it directly hit 100 points, breaking through with 4-hour volume growth.
It pushed from 0.015 all the way to around 0.03, with an intraday high of 0.0293.
The 24-hour turnover surged to nearly $100 million.
The price is rising in a parabolic pattern, giving you no time to hesitate.
During those few seconds of hesitation, it pulled another section.
New currency listing is just impressive, soaring to the skies, not even giving you a chance to get on board.
Watching the market keep surging, the group chat was already boiling over.
A bunch of people slapped their thighs, regretting not setting up an ambush in advance.
Others are eager to chase after it and aim for even bigger gains.
But with this rapid surge, everyone must stay alert $ETH
This kind of aggressive rally without any pullback is all driven by capital piling up.
The more enjoyable the price rises, the harder the sell-offs afterward.
Now, rush in, just a little insertion, and you'll be trapped at a high position.
A surge in prices may look tempting, but in reality, it's a harvesting rally.
Don't be blinded by the big bullish candlestick in front of you.
This market rally is far more comfortable than watching the show $ZEC $ZORA perpetual 10x long position, opened at 0.006412, currently at 0.008316, floating profit +296.74%.
Technical analysis: After ZORA found strong support around 0.0064, it started a rebound, breaking through short-term moving average resistance. MACD golden cross is diverging upwards, and volume is moderately increasing. Currently testing resistance at 0.0083; if it breaks effectively, the target is the 0.0095-0.010 range.
Base ecosystem NFT/social protocol narrative is warming up, combined with Zora Network event catalyst. I entered long at the 0.006412 support level after stabilization, with a stop loss at 0.0058 to prevent flash crashes. Using light position with 10x leverage.
Trailing stop loss has been moved up to 0.0075. Following the rebound rhythm, targeting the 0.0095-0.010 resistance zone.
⚠️ Risk: ZORA has retraced over 95% from its historical high, with heavy trapped positions. The token has a huge circulating supply (about 3.4 billion), lacking scarcity. With 10x leverage, a ±10% move can trigger liquidation. Do not chase highs near the 0.010 resistance; lock in profits. $AKE $ARB $BTC says a downer:
"No more drops" has two explanations——
A. Buyers are entering; B. No one is selling.
Right now it's B. B can turn into A, or overnight revert back to "everyone wants to sell."
So: don't add to your position, don't remove stop losses, especially for coins like $ZEC with ±20% daily swings, don't use trend thinking.
Being in when it rises is more important than how much it rises.
Big coins $ETH have held up, making it tough for the bears.$XAU "List of 30 Possible Future Events" is spreading quickly in Chinese CT. It covers a wide range including macro, gold, debt reduction, tariffs, employment, geopolitics... with plenty of emotional hooks. On-chain tickers like this don't thrive on whether a specific prediction is right or wrong, but on the whole emotional package of "gold + macro anxiety + debt reduction narrative." Several points worth highlighting separately: 1️⃣ Core narrative: Strong gold vs weak economy The list repeatedly presents the logic — "gold price and economy move oppositely, strong gold means weak economy, weak gold means strong economy." Item 10 says the next 5 years will be a "global debt reduction year + gold revaluation and price increase cycle"; item 28 even suggests "holding physical gold to hedge against inflation dilution." For memecoin, this kind of macro long-form doesn't need to be verified point by point; as long as the impression "gold = safe haven = second half chips" holds, the namesake market has fertile ground for spread. 2️⃣ Timeline needs calm: some predictions conflict with current reality On 9/16, the Fed just raised rates by 25bp, which contradicts the list's statements of "continuous USD depreciation, inevitable rate cuts" and "100% rate cuts before year-end" at least at this moment. Item 1 forecasts gold at 1650 by end of 2027, which also contradicts item 10's "gold price increase cycle." Third-party perspective: this list is more like a macro sentiment collection + personal judgment, not a research report with verifiable points; it can be used as narrative fuel but not for serious macro directional bets ETH is currently in a critical validation period following a breakout. Positive factors include continuously declining exchange reserves, a high proportion of staked locked tokens, and bullish bias in options and funding rates; risk factors involve concentrated profit-taking by whales, adjustment pressure after technical overbought conditions, and a lack of new catalysts after multiple positive developments have been realized. The short-term key observation range is $2491–$2748. Breaking out in either direction could trigger significant liquidation events, and trend continuation should be judged in conjunction with volume changes.BTC returns to $80,000, but bulls and bears hesitate simultaneously: How far can the market really go?
BTC has climbed back above $80,000, indicating that funds previously withdrawn are flowing back, and market risk appetite has somewhat recovered. However, the return of funds does not mean the rally has entered an acceleration phase. Above $80,000, there are still previous trapped positions and profit-taking zones; the closer the rebound gets to resistance, the more obvious the need to cash out may become.
The biggest feature of the current market is that both bulls and bears have valid reasons. Macroeconomic policies remain uncertain, and crypto regulation and reserve policies continue to influence expectations, making it difficult to explain the market with a single logic.
Technically, the key resistance is around $82,000; only a volume breakout and stable hold above this level can open up further space. On the downside, watch $77,000—if this level breaks, it indicates the current rebound is clearly cooling off.
As for myself, I did not participate in this round. For markets I don’t understand, I’d rather miss out than bet on guesses. Missing out is indeed frustrating, but not trading is also part of a trading system.
The market offers opportunities every day. What truly matters is not profiting from every move, but knowing what to do even when the outlook is unclear. $BTC #BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 $CC perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.11792, currently at 0.11146, floating profit +109.56%.
1-hour chart shows price rebound blocked at the 0.115-0.12 resistance zone. Order book indicates heavy selling pressure above, bullish momentum is exhausted. On the macro side, although Canton has DTCC institutional narrative, the token has no total supply cap and faces continuous network reward minting (selling pressure). Large-scale downtrend channel, small-scale rebound is a shorting opportunity.
Entered short at 0.11792, stop loss at 0.125, 20x leverage with light position. Clear logic: technical resistance + token inflation selling pressure, stop loss controllable, downside target 0.10/0.096.
After profits run, immediately moved stop loss to 0.114. Core of 20x leverage: light position, strict stop loss, quick protective adjustment. $AKE $ONE For traders who feel ZEC is already too extended to short directly, ZAMA could be another coin to watch because it often moves with the same narrative. If ZEC continues pushing higher, ZAMA could follow the momentum. But if ZEC finally starts a meaningful pullback, ZAMA could face even stronger selling pressure. Right now, I’m watching for signs that the ZEC move is becoming exhausted. If that happens, I expect the smaller coins in the same narrative to react quickly. I’ve already opened a small$ALLO Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety.
The last glance at ALLO before sleep showed it retracing to a key level, the support held firm, standing steady quite decisively. I casually suggested going long, placing an order at 0.23063, though I wasn’t confident, but the market structure told me not to chicken out.
It really gave me face, firmly standing above 0.23717, securing +56.54%, worth the wait, those on board must have woken up smiling. Those who endured with me understood.
Don’t get arrogant with profits, don’t despair with pullbacks. The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich quick often leads to zero.
Position management as usual: take profits on 70%, keep 30% with a stop at cost price, let profits run if it continues to rise, and don’t give back profits on a pullback.
Wait for a new structure to emerge, the market isn’t short of opportunities, it’s patience that’s lacking. For friends not yet on board, don’t rush now, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak, opportunities remain, don’t be anxious.
$SNDK $ADA #BTC returns to $80,000, capital conditions show recovery
BTC returns to $80,000, driving altcoins to generally rise
Especially the newly listed coins
$CNPY Ok newly listed coin, AI infrastructure
Market cap rose to as high as 400 million, other similar tokens
Basically, their prices are now around 100 million
Observed the market this morning
Open interest dropped from 12 million on September 16 to 4 million today
Feels like market makers were pumping to unload.
Opened a short at 0.55 this morning, originally planned a short-term trade
Now with this trend, I’m thinking of holding on a bit longer
Got hurt by $AKE today. It’s just ridiculous
This token has been rising all the way for two months
Price increased by 100 to 200 times, today price surged 140%
Simply absurd, first a flash crash at 0.049
I thought it was over, but after shorting
It reversed and rose to 0.067. My back is wrecked
Long-term short still has chances, after all it just got listed
After this round of sentiment, it’s all a mess
$CAP faced strong resistance near 0.072 in the last round
After consolidating for a while, price flashed down 30%
These days it’s also rising with the market,
Today it was blocked again near 0.072
Then price spiked suddenly to 0.079
Then quickly dropped to around 0.055 intraday
It currently has only 15% circulating. Unlock pressure is quite big later
These days it’s been bouncing with the market’s momentum
Feels like it can only bounce a few more times