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【5000U Challenge | Dual Currency Profit Live Trading Diary】
Day 4
Starting Capital: 5000U
Current Capital: 5090.57U
Cumulative Profit: +90.57U (+1.81%)
Today's Profit: +3.73U (+0.07%)
II. Today's Market Review 📝
Today is Saturday, the overall market is flat, and no new dual currency profit orders have matured and been realized.
The slight increase in the account comes from the natural floating profit of a small amount of spot holdings, with no option income added.
In recent days, many targets have surged one after another. I did not blindly chase the rise but newly positioned two cost-effective chips: $RKLB and $NBIS, while holding sufficient cash flow, quietly waiting for the opportunity window next Friday.
🚀$RKLB
Leading space rocket stock, previously halved from 150 directly down to 63, completing a major reshuffle of chips.
Strong capital support appeared at 58, with 87 as a short-term strong resistance level.
Option market battles are very intense: puts concentrated in the 60-70 range, calls lurking at 90-110.
The risk-reward ratio near 60 is excellent; it must break above 70 to have a chance to challenge the previous high of 87. No chasing the rally, hold low-position chips patiently.
📊$NBIS
Core stock in the storage sector, deeply tied to the HBM AI storage track, benefiting from the current storage sector rally.
Fundamentals are solid, order demand is full, but the sector's short-term gains are huge, and risks should not be ignored.
I control costs to enter, avoid heavy positions, aim to capture the beta of the industry cycle, and avoid the risk of being trapped by short-term chasing highs.
III. Personal Operation Strategy 💡
Currently, local market hotspots are crazy, with many sectors seeing astonishing short-term gains.
My strategy: not to be dragged into chasing highs by bullish candles.
Prioritize positioning in quality targets with safe costs, keep sufficient cash, and prepare for the expiration window next Friday.
Missing the market is not a fear; capital safety always comes first.
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 #ZEC逼近1600美元，多空博弈升温 #CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ I learned the hard way that shorting against a strong trend can be expensive. A few days ago, I was skeptical about $SOL around the $106 area. Since then, it has pushed sharply higher, briefly reaching nearly $114. 📈 For now, I’m watching the $110–$114 zone closely. If SOL continues holding above $110 while BTC stays around or above $80K, buyers could remain in control. BTC’s recent rebound has also helped lift the broader crypto market despite the Fed’s latest rate hike. 🔥 The important thing$ONE news focuses on Bitcoin, gold as alternative assets, and Q4 crypto market opportunities, which may indirectly drive ONE through overall risk appetite and capital flows, but does not involve Harmony project progress, partnerships, or token demand, with no clear direct catalysts currently. The short-term market is clearly strong, with prices well above the 4-hour moving average and momentum indicators still rising; however, the strength indicator has risen near 80, indicating an overheated rally, and the risk of volatility is high after a sharp volume surge. The funding rate is negative, meaning shorts pay longs, indicating crowded bearish positions; if the price continues to rise, a short squeeze may be triggered. Open interest is also relatively high, implying intensified long-short battles and significant closing pressure during pullbacks. On the upside, watch resistance near 0.00268; only a volume-backed break and hold above this level would signal further strength. On the downside, support near 0.00162 is key; a break below could weaken the short-term uptrend. Be cautious of extreme volatility and rapid pullback risks. $AKE news mostly involves price tracking, predictions, and discussions about "AI-driven rallies." Vitalik talks about crypto security and has no direct project progress related to AKE; Bitcoin's rise may boost market sentiment, but there is currently no clear direct catalyst, and related reports also warn of structural risks after the rally. On the chart, AKE surged sharply in a single day with significantly increased trading volume, and the price remains near the intraday high. The short-term trend is strong but extremely volatile. The funding rate is negative, meaning shorts pay fees to longs, indicating there are still bearish positions in the market; open interest is large, leverage funds are concentrated, so a squeeze or rapid pullback could occur. Resistance is seen near the intraday high; only a volume breakout and stabilization above it would confirm continued strength. Support is near the intraday low; a break below with weak rebound suggests the uptrend may fail. Be cautious of sharp volatility and liquidity risks. $CORE
The most dangerous signal in the market: crowded bulls, but trading volume is "voting with their feet." On the surface, market sentiment looks optimistic: 58.5% of retail investors hold long positions, and 59.7% of smart money is also bullish. Position data is overwhelmingly bullish, as if an upward move is just a matter of time.
But the real danger lies in the trading volume. The Taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.66—2,595 contracts sold versus only 1,712 bought. Positions are bullish, but trades are dominated by selling; this is the classic "crowded bulls + seller dominance" divergence.
What does this mean? Most participants in the market have already bet on a rise, with positions consistently bullish. However, in actual matched trades, the active selling force is 1.5 times the active buying force. This indicates that smart money talks bullish but is actually reducing positions; or that long holders are gradually having their liquidity eaten away by sellers.
Crowded bulls themselves are the fuel for the next downturn. When most people are fully invested waiting for a rise and marginal buying power dries up, any slight disturbance can trigger a concentrated liquidation. Sellers continuously overwhelm buyers, yet prices have not dropped significantly—this often means sellers are patiently offloading rather than buyers supporting the price.
The $CORE market sends a clear signal: positions represent opinions, trading volume represents actions. When actions diverge from opinions, trust the actions.
When retail and smart money are both "bullish," but Taker data is dominated by sellers, this is not a sign of an upcoming rise but the eve of a liquidity trap. Don’t be fooled by position percentages—the real direction is determined by who is actively trading. Right now, sellers are in control!Dukascopy Remote Account Opening: Video Verification Works, ≠ Instant Card Delivery
Dukascopy, licensed by FINMA in Geneva, allows you to open multi-currency accounts remotely via video — don’t mistake it for "scan your passport and get the card instantly."
The official process is straightforward: fill out the form, make the initial deposit, then complete video verification; the passport must have a machine-readable zone. The video verification is by default in English; for Chinese, you need to schedule a time in the chat first. The account opened is a Swiss-side multi-currency account, with the FAQ listing about twenty fiat sub-accounts; residents of the US, Japan, and a long list of other countries are explicitly not accepted. Account activation usually takes several business days, not instant.
The types of cards and whether you can receive them at your location depend on the products actually available in your account after logging in; don’t believe that "everyone can apply for a Swiss bank card." Depositing USDT/ETH/BTC on-chain uses officially specified investment settlement/cooperation exchange channels, and USDT only recognizes the Ethereum mainnet ERC-20 — it’s not that you can just send from any chain to the IBAN and have it credited. It can be used as a backup fiat account, but don’t treat it as a no-threshold crypto deposit and withdrawal solution.$XTZ current price 0.3751, 24h surge of 36.95%, trading volume 16.5M USDT, price has touched the upper Bollinger Band at 0.375028, MA5 0.34818 crossing above MA20 0.32404 forming a bullish alignment, MACD histogram +0.002207 continuing expansion. However, RSI is as high as 80.9, entering the overbought zone, and the Fear & Greed Index at 71 is in a greedy state, indicating overheated market sentiment and rising risk of chasing highs. Notably, the funding rate is -0.1898%, shorts are still paying, and the short squeeze structure has not yet collapsed; this is fuel for a short-term further rally but also means that once bullish momentum fades, a pullback will be swift.
BTC's strong trend provides rotation soil for altcoins; XTZ is a typical sentiment-driven catch-up rally, with gains far exceeding $PROVE's +6.79% and $SKY's -1.12% over the same period. The latter two are relatively weak, with capital clearly concentrating on XTZ.
Directionally, I lean bullish but will only trade on pullbacks, not chase the highs. $BTC Flipped 76.9K resistance & pumped into 80,111. Glad we planned for it. Yes, the 72,782 bias is still valid, but the 14-day timing might be affected after this flip as we expected a dump first. One important thing to note here, though: We're at a very crucial level now. The August macro report said that as soon as we get a weekly candle close above these levels, we'll turn bullish. Bullish as in Bull Run. If that happens, I'll let you know. For now, I still expect we'll go lower. Why give 8This means TapeOut Protocol is now fully live on the X Layer mainnet (OKX's Ethereum L2). Specifically, it includes: • Processor factory, circuit container, website warehouse, TapeSend message hub, and other core components have all been deployed. • The first test processor has been created on X Layer, and the circuit container is now open. • Most importantly: Users holding X Layer circuit containers can directly use their container ID to send end-to-end encrypted messages to circuit container holders on BNB Chain via TapeSend—no chain switching or cross-chain bridge required. Blonskr itself has already completed two-way communication tests using X Layer 1.2.0 and BNB Chain 15324.30 (the address in the screenshot in the post matches perfectly). This is not simply "multi-chain deployment of a DApp," but rather moving the entire "on-chain circuit manufacturing + container + communication" infrastructure to X Layer and opening up interoperability with BNB Chain. What is the significance of this deployment? 1. For the X Layer ecosystem: introduces a brand-new, highly innovative "on-chain computing/manufacturing" primitive. Currently, X Layer focuses on low-gas, high-throughput EVM environments and exchange-level infrastructure (including: $FET current price 0.1815, 24h -1.95%, trading volume only 17.0M USDT, MA5 0.18202 has crossed below MA20 0.18205, MACD histogram -0.000288 remains bearish, RSI 51.8 neutral to weak, Bollinger Bands narrowing to [0.17708, 0.18702], 30 K-line amplitude 6.94%. Funding rate +0.0100% still positive, indicating longs are still paying to hold positions, while the Fear and Greed Index at 71 is in the greed zone—low volatility combined with greed sentiment and crowded longs, this is the structure most prone to downward spikes. Judgment: short-term bearish bias, but only defensive short positions within the range, no chasing.
Entry reference 0.1820–0.1830 (close to MA5/MA20 death cross and below Bollinger middle band), take profit 1 at 0.1775 (above Bollinger lower band 0.17708), take profit 2 at 0.1740 (extension target after breaking lower band); stop loss at 0.1875 (above Bollinger upper band 0.18702, reclaiming this invalidates the death cross). If price rallies with volume to reclaim 0.1870 and MACD histogram turns positive, the bearish logic is invalidated, exit immediately, do not average down.$BTC BTC popular themes should first be viewed as oscillating
BTC's "BTC returns to $80,000, capital side shows recovery" has been pushed to the spotlight, but the page does not provide details on capital flow, positions, or liquidations. This kind of combination often leads to expectation games: on one side, waiting for institutional absorption to be confirmed, on the other, guarding against leverage sentiment further amplifying volatility. In the short term, treat it as a high-volatility rotation theme; it is not advisable to equate a single headline directly with a trend reversal. Only in the mid-term, after continuous validation by subsequent data, is there reason to shift the judgment from neutral to more positive.
Trend conclusion: short-term oscillation, mid-term awaiting validation
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 Someone held an ETH long from $2,480 all the way through this rebound without taking partial profits. What stands out isn’t the entry — it’s the patience. Yesterday afternoon, the position was opened and then simply left alone. No constant adjustments, no panic exits, no chasing every candle. As ETH kept climbing, the floating profit kept expanding. Sometimes the biggest difference isn’t finding the perfect entry. It’s having the discipline to stick with a thesis while the market is moving in yoRegarding $BTC news, despite the setback of the "Clarity Act," Bitcoin is still being driven up by capital, indicating that regulatory uncertainty may have already been priced in, and market risk appetite has not yet waned. The Hormuz toll has switched to Bitcoin settlement, reflecting an adoption attempt, but the scale and sustainability remain unclear; Saylor's response is more emotional, and other headlines like "Why the rise" and "Current price" are rather generic, with no clear direct catalyst at present.
The market remains relatively strong: the 4-hour chart is above the 20-period moving average at 79,027, indicating that the recent average cost is below; momentum is positive, but the strength indicator is around 78, at a high level, increasing the risk of chasing the rally. The funding rate is positive, with longs paying shorts, showing bulls are dominant; the open interest is large, indicating high participation, which also means that after crowding, there may be concentrated liquidations. Resistance is at 81,740, and only a volume-supported break above will confirm continued gains; support is at 75,000, and a break below with a failure to rebound will confirm weakness. Be cautious of rapid fluctuations caused by news reversals and leverage.I’m no longer trying short positions on ETH; I’m currently holding no positions. Subjectively, I still think there might be one more retest, but this time I won’t bet on shorts; instead, I’ll wait for bullish signals after the retest.
If BTC and ETH can really strengthen directly, it means the strong market is undergoing rotation, and one shouldn’t short against the trend at resistance levels. Markets often rely on repeated oscillations to shake out weak hands. Currently: no short positions on BTC or ETH, no chasing longs, waiting for confirmation.
Adding or increasing longs:
At retests of previous lows or daily dense trading zones, or after a 0.5–0.618 retracement followed by volume contraction and a stop in the decline, long lower shadows, and volume recovery, then gradually test longs; if there is a direct volume breakout above previous resistance and it holds, do not chase, wait for a retest.
Defense:
For ETH, watch previous lows and daily dense zones; for BTC, watch previous lows and key daily supports. At support, first observe absorption; if broken and not recovered, reduce or stop loss longs; if a false break quickly recovers, consider re-entering.
Take profit:
Take partial profits in batches at previous resistance or highs; if volume breakout holds, keep a base position; reduce actively if volume-price divergence occurs.
Stop loss:
If BTC/ETH break key supports and fail to recover, bullish logic fails, exit strictly.
Personal record, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21%
#ZEC逼近1600美元，多空博弈升温 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Family, the SEC's move this time is even more magical than Pharaoh's pyramids—the CLARITY Act in Congress just missed passing by 11 votes and died, but the SEC immediately kicked the door open themselves!
On September 17, the SEC officially issued the “Innovation Exemption” order, allowing qualified tokenized securities trading platforms to trade tokenized U.S. stocks through licensed AMMs and liquidity pools, exempt for a full five years. This effectively bypasses Congress and uses administrative authority to open a compliant gateway for on-chain stocks.
UNI took off right on the spot, surging over 21% intraday, reaching as high as $9.44, with a 24-hour increase of 26.6%. Why such a big reaction? Because Uniswap v4’s licensed capital pools perfectly fit this TSV framework—the underlying public chain is open, wallets entering the pool are vetted, balancing compliance and decentralization.
But Pharaoh has to pour cold water on this. This exemption is not “all U.S. stocks can be freely listed on Uniswap,” but has price limits, tokens must carry full dividend and voting rights, and synthetic tokens are explicitly excluded.
In the short term, watch sentiment and short squeezes; in the long term, watch the real asset volume going on-chain. Uni already has potential as a potential coin; in the future, if Bitcoin hits 100K+, it could see around 15 again, but not to chase now! If it reaches around 8.0, Pharaoh will consider going in more! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% Watching the market obsessively gets annoying; turning it off actually makes things clearer, and when your eyes aren't glued to it, your mind stays calm. Last night before bed, I saw $FIL bottoming but not breaking down, with funds quietly entering. I signaled a bullish bias.
Got in at 0.9018, current price 0.9871, +474.05%. Those on board must be waking up smiling. Took profit on 70%, moved the remaining 30% to cost price for protection, so even if it falls back, the gains won't feel painful.
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they're the smartest. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding.
Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and move only when the next signal appears.
$LAB $SNDK ZEC just pushed to around $1,573, up roughly 7% in 24H, with an intraday high near $1,583 — another new local high. 🔥 The 15-minute chart looks almost vertical, with price ripping above the Bollinger upper band around $1,569. Short-term deviation is now extremely stretched. So what’s driving this move? 🟢 Privacy narrative: Positive comments from Helius co-founder sparked fresh bullish attention. 🔴 Short squeeze: Once shorts started getting liquidated, forced closures added buying pressure. Pr🔥After $BTC returns to 80,000, which is more worth following, $OKB or $SOL? One is a slow variable, the other a fast variable. In the rebound, two types of people are most prone to buying recklessly: those seeking stability look at $OKB, those seeking elasticity look at $SOL. $OKB is currently around 121.5, with the advantage of hard supply—21 million fixed, no additional issuance. Demand relies on two ends: exchange fees/new listings/wealth management are stock cash flows, while X Layer Gas, DAt this point, the bears are probably still waiting for a deep pullback…
I’m your boss! $ETH’s second coin’s trend is really wearing people down.
After the previous surge reached 2662, it couldn’t continue to break through in one go. There was no expected big plunge, nor a strong new high. The current price is steadily stuck around 2639, tugging back and forth.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the MACD has turned green, showing a clear exhaustion of short-term bullish momentum, but the supertrend support line firmly holds below, so it can’t fall further.
The market is split: on one side, rumors of an altcoin season arriving, with funds flowing into small coins; on the other, major coins hold their high positions without loosening.
Now it’s stuck in an awkward position, with previous highs pressing down above and strong support cushioning below.
It neither offers rich profits for those chasing highs nor comfortable entry points for bears bottom-fishing.
At this stage, it’s no longer just about being bullish or bearish; every day is a mental grind within a narrow range.
The overall trend remains strong, but to push to new highs in the short term, incremental funds must come in to support.
Whether the major uptrend will continue is unknown; for now, it’s just a frustrating back-and-forth consolidation.
#ETHSmallRangeConsolidation #BanklessCoFounderSaysAltSeasonIsHere $ETHUNI suddenly surged 21%, and many people haven't even realized what happened yet.
To put it simply, the SEC has opened a door for tokenized stocks. The new regulation grants a five-year temporary exemption to qualified trading venues, allowing them to trade a portion of tokenized U.S. stocks using permissioned AMM pools, and even provides dealer registration exemptions for liquidity providers. The founder of Uniswap immediately stated that this framework is tailor-made for the v4 permissioned pools.
The market's reaction was very direct. UNI peaked at 9.44, with ARB and NEAR also rising. The logic is simple: Uniswap used to only trade crypto, but now it’s qualified to handle stocks. If U.S. stocks can truly be brought on-chain and matched via AMM, then on-chain trading volume will be on a whole different level. ARB and NEAR also rose because the market is betting that this track can succeed.
But don’t get too excited too soon. The five-year temporary exemption is not a permanent license, and no one knows how policies will change after it expires. More importantly, tokenized stocks have been talked about for a long time, but real trading volume has never taken off.
The short-term rise is driven by sentiment; the long-term depends on real demand. It’s not cost-effective to chase the highs now; wait for a pullback to confirm before making moves. What the SEC gave this time is not the finish line, but an entry ticket. Whether it can be converted into protocol revenue depends on how many people actually trade U.S. stocks on-chain going forward.
Do you think tokenized stocks can take off this time? #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% $BTC $ETH $UNI The third truth: $110–$112 was the real battleground. Look closely at this $SOL rebound. The most aggressive part of the move happened right around $110–$112. That zone wasn’t random. Late-August and early-September price action had repeatedly interacted with the $112 area, making it an important technical level. Once SOL pushed through $110, the move accelerated. Short positions started getting closed as the price moved higher, adding additional buying pressure and helping push SOL toward $114.131 million long position, only 20% away from liquidation
He increased the position to 131 million USD.
$ETH long position 85.73 million, $BTC long position 40.26 million.
Where does this money come from:
All three positions are long, same direction.
Totaling 131 million, not principal, but position size.
How is this number calculated:
$ETH liquidation price 2517, current price needs to rise more than 20% to reach it.
$BTC liquidation price 73501, even further away.
Back-calculating, his leverage is not high.
The frustrating part is here.
The bigger the position, the more afraid to move.
If the price really drops 20%, the system automatically liquidates, he doesn't even have a chance to manually stop loss.
When the position is large enough, the person becomes the system's pending order.
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $ETH $BTC SEC Tokenized Stock Exemption Implemented, UNI Surges 21%, But This Double-Edged Sword Needs to Be Understood
The SEC's innovative tokenized stock exemption framework has officially been implemented, with UNI breaking above $9.4 intraday, surging over 21%, and ARB and NEAR also rebounding. The reason is straightforward: the Uniswap founder confirmed that this framework applies to the v4 permissioned pool.
My judgment is: this is an important step to bridge traditional assets onto the blockchain, but for DeFi's native logic, it is also a compromise.
The positive side is that the compliance channel has opened. Traditional stocks can be tokenized on-chain through compliant AMMs, which can bring real trading volume and protocol revenue to UNI. But the problem is that a "permissioned" AMM means KYC and whitelisting are required, which shakes the foundation of DeFi's "permissionless" nature.
Looking at the market, UNI has already priced in a lot of good news in the short term; the RSI previously hit 79, indicating overbought conditions. Chasing the price now has a poor risk-reward ratio.
Strategy: Hold spot positions to benefit from the long-term narrative, but avoid catching the last rally in the short term. It's not too late to add positions after market sentiment cools down and support is confirmed on a pullback. Sentiment-driven speculation tends to fade, and real trading volume is the key to supporting the price.⚔️ $SOL vs $ETH —— Who will lead the next round of capital rotation?
🔵 $ETH → DeFi ecosystem + institutional capital allocation
🟣 $SOL → High Beta public chain + stronger market elasticity
If $ETH shows relative strength next, it may indicate that capital is flowing back from high-risk assets to larger market cap mainstream crypto assets.
If $SOL continues to outperform ETH with a significant increase in trading volume, it could mean market risk appetite is heating up, and capital is starting to chase high Beta, high volatility public chain assets again.
📊 What really needs attention now is not just price movements:
• Whether there is a clear change in ETH/SOL relative strength
• Whether trading volume can continue to expand
• Whether there is follow-up buying after a breakout
• Whether capital is truly rotating from one sector to another
Currently, the market seems to be waiting for a clear directional confirmation.
👀 For the next round of crypto market capital rotation, are you more focused on $ETH or $SOL?
$ETH $SOL
#CryptoRotation #ETH #SOL #DeFi #Layer1Crypto traders often watch price.
I think we should watch the reaction to price.
BTC can move higher, but if volume doesn't support the move, I become more cautious.
BTC can drop, but if buyers immediately absorb the selling, that tells another story.
Price shows the move.
Reaction shows the market's strength.
Agree or disagree?
#Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #Trading #OKXHYPE at $93, are you chasing it?
First glance: New high then pullback, but the trend is intact.
24-hour retracement of 2% from 94.5, spot at 92.3-92.6, OKX perpetual around 93. Market cap 23.2 billion, top 10 ranking. Daily and 4-hour charts show an uptrend, started from 75-76, accelerated after breaking the downtrend line. 4-hour RSI once hit 79 overbought, daily RSI 66—short-term is hot, mid-term is healthy.
First thing: New product launch, HYPE transforms from a “coin” to “collateral”
The platform just launched manual lending: users can collateralize HYPE or BTC to borrow USDC/USDT. On the first day, loan volume reached $269 million.
In plain terms: Previously, holding HYPE meant just waiting for price appreciation; now you can collateralize it to borrow money and keep playing. Demand for HYPE is no longer just speculation, it has become a "hard currency" within the platform.
Second thing: 99% fee buyback and burn, but high valuation is the original sin
Hyperliquid’s annualized fees are about $1 billion, 99% goes into the Assistance Fund to buy back and burn HYPE. Perpetual DEX revenue accounts for about 80%.
Circulating market cap 23.2 billion, FDV about 88 billion
Revenue heavily depends on perpetual trading volume
On September 29, 14.2 million tokens unlocked; on October 6, 9.92 million tokens unlocked for core contributors
Buybacks are very attractive, but unlocks are painful. Past unlocks were absorbed by price, but this time the nominal scale is not small. Are you worried?
Third thing: Macro environment unfriendly, but BTC stands above 81,000
The Fed just raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, hawkish bias. Non-yield assets under pressure.
But BTC rebounded from 76,000-77,000 two days ago to around 81,000, total crypto market cap 2.76 trillion, sentiment leaning greedy. HYPE is stronger relative to BTC, considered a "high Beta with fundamentals." The market is tough, but HYPE is holding its own.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
On one side:
New product launched, real increase in HYPE collateral demand
$1 billion annual fees, 99% buyback and burn
TVL matches Arbitrum, open interest at record highs
Institutional holdings 29.3 million tokens, Kraken’s parent company plans compliant access for US users
On the other side:
Just hit ATH, short-term overbought, pullback likely
Consecutive unlocks on September 29 and October 6, selling pressure looming
FDV 88 billion, high valuation requires sustained high income
Fed hawkish, macro environment unfriendly
Resistance above: 95-97 → psychological 100 → 108-115
Support below: 89-90 (previous high + psychological) → 80-82 (previous breakout zone) → 74.8-76.4 (this round’s launch platform)
Trading strategy
Aggressive short-term:
Light long position near 93, stop loss below 91.5-92, target partial exit at 95-97, then watch 100. Small position, don’t get greedy.
Conservative approach:
Wait for pullback to 89.5-91 to scale in long, stop loss below 88. First target 100, second target 108. Reduce or wait if it breaks below 88.
Bearish conditions:
Daily close below 89 with volume, or failure to hold 80-82 on pullback, then consider shorting on rallies, target 76-78.
Mid to long term:
Agree with buyback logic, 93 can be a trend holding level but must withstand unlock volatility. Only a big drop to 75-80 is a strong add zone.
HYPE is not a meme; it’s the cash cow of perpetual DEX—
But even the best asset can trap you if bought too high.
If you fear high prices, it fears you won’t chase; if you chase, it fears you won’t sell.
At 93, do you dare to chase or wait for a pullback?
$BTC $ETH $HYPE $ETH is not a cheaper $BTC . It is a different claim: fees, staking, and product flow.
If those stay flat while $BTC holds, $ZEC can lag for weeks. That lag is information.
Do not average down just because the logo is familiar
#BTCBackAbove80K
#UNI21%RallyOnSECRule 🛰️ $SOL / $BTC — The Strength Gap Matters
📊 SOL is the higher-beta asset; BTC remains the liquidity anchor.
⚙️ Narrative: SOL/BTC strength can reveal whether capital is rotating deeper into altcoins.
🌋 Risk: BTC weakness can amplify SOL’s downside moves.
👁️ Watch: SOL outperforming while BTC stays stable = stronger rotation signal.
#CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve
#AICoordinationLawsuit Originally, I just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up giving me dumplings for half a year. Yesterday afternoon, I was watching $ZEN so closely that I almost fell asleep; the bottom was flat and just wouldn't break, and there were always buyers below.
I said at the time, the 7.233 level is worth trying; if it holds on the pullback, that's an opportunity. After entering long, I didn't rush to shout, just waited to see if it would give me some respect.
This morning when I opened the market, it gave me the answer directly: 7.995, +529.51%. Feels good, brothers, this piece of meat is solidly eaten.
The market is something you wait for, profits are something you hold for.
Put the big chunk in your pocket first, take profit on 75%, move the stop to cost price on the remaining 25%, let the profits run if it keeps going, and don't let the gains turn sour if it pulls back.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next signal to move, I'll notify you immediately.
$SOL $ZEC Buyback Plan Launched: The $LAB official announced the formal launch of the buyback plan, with a dedicated buyback portal coming online soon. Every buyback transaction will be publicly disclosed in real-time on the portal. This is currently the only proactive positive move from the project team, providing short-term narrative support for the price increase.
· Short Squeeze: Before the price rise, there was a deep price drop that accumulated a large number of short positions. Then the price quickly rebounded, triggering short liquidations, forcing shorts to buy to cover, which further pushed the price up, creating a spiral.
· Derivatives Market Dominance: During the price rise, buy and sell volumes were roughly balanced (about 50.7% vs 49.3%), while open interest surged, indicating that leveraged funds are driving the move rather than spot buying continuously accumulating.$ZEC: Go long!
Strategy:
· Buy in batches on a pullback to the 1500-1520 range if it stabilizes.
· If volume breaks through 1545 (around MA10), follow the momentum to add longs.
· Stop loss: exit if it falls below 1480.
· Take profit targets: 1560, 1598.
Core basis:
1. Chip data: The whale long-short ratio is as high as 836.81%, with long positions close to 400 million U, average cost only 966, unrealized profit over 144 million U, indicating extremely solid bottom chips. In contrast, shorts have an average cost of 1423 and are deeply underwater, making a short squeeze likely upon rebound.
2. Liquidation data: 24-hour short liquidations of 20.978 million far exceed long liquidations of 3.486 million, showing the overall trend is absolutely dominated by bulls. Long liquidations have increased in the last 1 and 4 hours (8,265 U, 803,000 U), representing leverage clearing after a sharp rise (consolidation), which benefits a healthy upward trend after clearing floating chips.
3. Technicals: Price surged rapidly from 1435 to 1598 then pulled back on lower volume, currently near support around 1525. Net buying on 30-minute chart is 3.03M, greater than net selling of 1.34M, with capital absorbing at low levels. If it stabilizes above 1500, the bullish trend is likely to continue.
#ZEC逼近1600美元，多空博弈升温 I’m increasingly feeling that the time BTC’s current bear market leaves us might not be that long.
Looking back at Bitcoin’s past cycles, the bear market from peak to bottom usually spans about a year. 365 days isn’t a timer that guarantees a reversal when it hits, but it reminds me of one thing: the longer the drop lasts, the more you can’t just focus on the immediate red candle.
When BTC dropped near 76,000 before, the market was still calling for a second leg down. Now it’s pulled back above 80,000, and the 50-week moving average at 79,000 has been reclaimed. Is 76,000 the final bottom? I can’t say for sure, but my thinking has started to change.
Before, when it dropped, I first wondered if it would crash further; now, if there’s another deep pullback, I’d seriously consider looking for long-term positions.
For the short term, I’m still watching 80,000 and 79,000. If 80,000 holds, I’ll keep an eye on 82,000–82,500; if it falls back to 79,000 or even lower, I’ll observe support in batches and won’t just go all in because of the phrase “bear market over.” If 79,000 breaks, watch out for 76,000 being tested again.
If it breaks above 82,500, I’ll first look at 85,000, then include the 100-week moving average near 89,000 as a target.
I don’t need to nail the absolute bottom. If there’s a deeper pullback, what I fear most is being so scared that I don’t dare to take the planned positions.$ETH
Just now, this wave of Ethereum rally really got the market a bit hyped up😮💨
ETH has surged from around 2580 to above 2630, with bulls continuously pushing, and pullbacks almost all quickly absorbed.
What’s really worth watching now is the 2640–2660 range.
Previous attempts to break higher all encountered obvious selling pressure here. If this time it can break through 2665 with volume and truly turn this level into support, the short-term structure might open up further, and then we can continue to watch around 2700.
But if repeated attempts still fail, don’t rush to chase.
After all, the short-term has already rebounded continuously, and once profit-taking concentrates, a pullback to around 2580 or even 2550 wouldn’t be surprising.
Fundamentally, the latest data shows that on September 18, the spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of about $144 million, indicating a clear improvement in capital flow compared to previous days; however, looking at the whole week, ETH ETFs still recorded a net outflow of about $140 million, meaning capital return still needs further observation.
So the current market is actually quite simple:
Watch for support near 2640, watch for a breakout near 2665.
There are strategies for breakouts, and if the rally fails, just wait for a pullback. No need to get hyped just because of a few red candles.
The stronger the market, the more you need to stay calm.
$ETH $BTC
#ETH #Ethereum #CryptoMarket
The above is only personal market commentary and does not constitute any investment advice, DYOR.$SPCX This rebound, I still want to short, but I won't blindly sell near 150.
According to the US stock market closing data on September 18, SPCX closed at $152.71, with a high of 156.60 and a low of 149.93 that day. It rebounded continuously for the past two days, but was pushed down again near 156. This level has seen selling pressure more than once.
There is indeed news: SpaceX has secured a nearly $1 billion NASA manned spaceflight contract, and the next Starship test flight is scheduled for September 28. Elon Musk's story is still unfolding—spaceflight, AI, computing power, any one of these can stimulate the stock price. But when shorting SPCX, I have always been cautious of such news-driven spikes; shorting too early can easily get wiped out by a big bullish candle.
I'm now watching 155–157. If the rebound reaches here and can't break through, I will consider shorting with a stop loss above 160; below, I first watch 150, and if it breaks, then 145–143. If there is always someone buying at 150, don't stubbornly hold the short. Conversely, if 157 holds with volume, I will admit my mistake first and wait for it to finish moving before deciding.
The most intoxicating thing about SPCX is that it looks expensive based on valuation, yet the price can keep rising on expectations.
I can be bearish, but I don't want to bet hard against Elon Musk's news flow. The latest derivatives data points to a heavily one-sided market. Long exposure has climbed to roughly 920%, with about 460 million U in long positions compared to just 50 million U in shorts. Bulls are dominating the positioning, but this imbalance could become a serious risk if momentum starts to fade. What's even more concerning? Nearly 88% of long positions are currently sitting in profit, with unrealized gains approaching 145 million U. When the majority of traders are already deep in the gUS stocks are volatile, geopolitical tensions persist, and even after the Federal Reserve just completed its first rate hike this year, BTC has stubbornly climbed back above $80,000. From around $76,000 a few days ago to around $81,000, the short-term gains have been extremely exaggerated. More importantly, when BTC broke above $80,000, some US stock indices actually weakened, and the market began to show signs of increased crypto asset pricing. But don't rush to call for a bull market to take off. $81,000~$82,000 remains the area to watch for now. Whether it can hold firmly will determine whether it continues to expand upward or return to $78,000 or even $75,000 in volatility. Another clear feature of this rally is that bears have been continuously squeezed. In the past 24 hours, about $470 million in short positions in the crypto market have been liquidated, with BTC short liquidations totaling about $238 million. This strong short squeeze will accelerate the rise, but it also means short-term volatility may further amplify. Additionally, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points this week to 3.75%~4.00%. The market was originally worried that tightening would continue to suppress risk assets, but BTC actually recovered quickly. Meanwhile, recent digital asset-related policy developments promoted by the SEC have also provided some emotional support to the market. So the most important thing now is not "whether it's about to hit 100,000," but whether new support can form above 80,000. If the breakout can continue to digest selling pressure, the subsequent levels of 83,000 and 85,000 will become new levels to watch; If it falls back below 80,000, that's also the caseThis is not a small bounce following BTC, but an independent main rise.
$ZEC has already risen to 1600, yet the bears still refuse to admit defeat.
On September 15, ZEC was around $1110, and now it has surged above 1550, with a 7-day increase of over 35%;
I am currently out of position. Although I remain bullish, this price level is not very suitable for chasing the rise.
At present, there are fundamental catalysts and short squeeze fuel in the market.
1️⃣ The ZEC narrative is still strengthening.
Paradigm has publicly expressed support for Zcash, and the NU7 upgrade has confirmed its roadmap: testnet launch on October 6, mainnet launch targeted for November 5, with block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds.
2️⃣ The shorts are too crowded.
Currently, ZEC contract open interest is about $3.28 billion, with 24-hour contract trading exceeding $10 billion, far surpassing spot trading;
Regarding the upcoming trend, I believe:
There will be resistance at 1600, but if it firmly holds above that level, I see $1800,
and if it gets stronger, directly $2000.
If it fails to break through 1600 in the short term, first watch if 1500 can hold;
As long as 1500 is not broken, I will not easily turn bearish just because of the large rise. #BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 $BTC 🔥Sideways for two weeks then a direct breakout!
$SOL violently surges, up 10.95% in 24h
Wow, Solana just kicked open the 100–108 consolidation zone that lasted for two weeks! OKX current price 112.5, intraday high 112.73, low 100.73, explosive momentum maxed out📈
This rally is driven by dual logic resonance:
Solana mainnet performance upgrade + continuous ETF net inflows boosting sentiment, essentially a strong catch-up rally for high Beta coins under the warming Bitcoin market.
Technical bullish signals are all in place✅
4-hour MACD golden cross, bullish moving averages alignment, volume-price cooperation looks healthy.
▪️Resistance above: 115–118, only a stable break can push to 122~125
▪️Support below: 108–105, lifeline at 100
Honestly: The market is starting too fast, chasing longs now has low cost-effectiveness and is prone to getting cut. A more comfortable approach is to wait for a pullback to 108–110 to stabilize before trying longs. If it breaks below 105, the bullish trend needs to be reassessed.
#SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 Greed index 71, so why is the price of $ARB completely stagnant?
The answer lies in the capital structure. ARBUSDT current price is 0.2099, down only 0.10% in 24h, but the funding rate +0.0100% remains positive, indicating longs are paying to hold positions, while the price is suppressed below MA5=0.21076 and MA20=0.215135, with MA5<MA20 forming a bearish alignment. RSI=48.6 is neutral to weak, MACD histogram -0.001665 shows bearish momentum, Bollinger lower band at 0.206148 is short-term support, and 30 candlesticks with 13.1% amplitude indicate compressed volatility. The core of the long-short game is: with a positive funding rate, longs are reluctant to exit, but the price does not rise; once it breaks below the lower band, it easily triggers long stop-loss spikes, and capital is quietly shifting towards shorts.
My view is bearish. Entry reference is 0.2100–0.2120 (rebound resistance at MA5), take profit 1 at 0.2062 (Bollinger lower band, first technical support), take profit 2 at 0.2020 (previous low extension, measured target after breaking lower band), stop loss at 0.2165 (above MA20, if price holds here, bearish logic fails). The reason is that the funding rate is still positive but MACD is bearish and price is below moving averages, a typical structure of crowded longs with weakening price, with downside risk of stop-loss spikes.$AKE tokens will definitely be sold off
The dealer holds too many chips; will they sell in batches or sell a little then pump the price before selling more?
I suggest avoiding both long and short positions. These are purely single-machine controlled coins with no real selling pressure. The resistance level is just for liquidity. For such coins, if you go long, the position feels too high and you set a stop loss; after the stop loss is triggered, the price pumps again. It feels like you can set up a short position, but it still forces a short squeeze and pumps again.
The tokens will definitely be sold off; when and how is the question.
I recommend not touching these coins that are pure harvest traps killing both longs and shorts.
Just follow the dealer for a couple of bites; the third bite will get you trapped.
If you insist on playing, be sure to control your position size! Both longs and shorts require strict position control. Don't get emotional, don't get emotional!
Good luck, teachers$ZEC short positions above $1650 liquidation price 80 million, are they breeding bugs here? Some people are still obsessed with the "last bottom test."
But even if Bitcoin really crashes into a deep pit, strong coins may not necessarily rebound to their previous highs.
Right now, it looks more like funds quietly fleeing.
Is it worth putting all your chips and mindset on waiting for a perfect price?
At least set two gates: a left-side trial position line and a right-side error recognition line.
Admitting a mistake is not failure; it means seeing that the structure has changed and the old bottom is hard to find; to avoid being left behind by the market, you have to accept getting in at a higher cost.
This way, if you bet wrong, there’s a way out, and if you miss out, you can still make up for it. Wow, UNI is really taking off this time,
OKX current price is 9.106, intraday high reached 9.38, low at 7.54, monthly increase directly breaking 100%📈
Core positive catalyst explosion: SEC tokenized stock innovation exemption landed, directly granting a 5-year window period, permissioned AMM pools can trade tokenized stocks.
Uniswap v4 perfectly fits this framework, DeFi sector gets the top-tier regulatory dividend, and can also grab market share from Robinhood Chain. This narrative is not a one-day wonder.
⚠️ But be clear about the risks! The 4-hour RSI is already severely overbought, with a lot of short-term profit-taking, the risk of a pullback after the surge is increasing.
▪️ Resistance above: 9.5~10.0, only a strong breakout will target 11
▪️ Short-term support: 8.5-8.0, lifeline at 7.5
A heartfelt tip: The crazier the market gets, the more you shouldn’t get carried away. When it reaches around 9.5, you can reduce your position to lock in some profits, don’t give your unrealized gains back to the market. If you really want to add positions, wait for a pullback to 8.2–8.5 to stabilize before acting, that’s safer.
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee passed the "Digital Asset Tax Transparency Act" with a vote of 38 to 5, sending it to the full House for a vote.
This is the first federal tax framework for crypto assets in the U.S., laying out benefits for Dogecoin across three main areas.
The first is payments.
Under current rules, spending Dogecoin on a cup of coffee counts as a taxable event, requiring gain or loss to be calculated for each transaction, making small payments a tax headache.
The bill exempts gains and losses from network and transaction fees under $10, reducing compliance costs for high-frequency scenarios like tipping and transfers. This is the first time Dogecoin’s role as a "daily currency" has tax law support.
The second area is mining.
$DOGE uses proof-of-work and is merge-mined with Litecoin.
The bill clarifies the tax treatment of mining rewards, helping miners move out of the "illusory income" gray area, increasing certainty around hash power investment, and strengthening the network’s security foundation.
The third area concerns institutions.
Traders can value assets at market price, lending digital assets no longer triggers taxable events, and foreign investors receive safe harbor treatment. Along with the already-listed Dogecoin ETF, this opens channels for market making and cross-border capital flow.
Of course, the bill still needs to pass the full House, Senate, and be signed by the President. The wash sale rule also removes the old method of loss tax deduction.
But tax is shifting from a barrier to a framework, solidifying Dogecoin’s compliant status.$EDGE perpetual 20x long position, opened at 0.3613, now at 0.5917, floating profit +1275.39%. Before opening the position, I checked the 1-hour KDJ; the J value stayed in the 0–10 oversold zone, stagnating for several days, then the K line crossed above the D line forming a low-level golden cross, indicating bullish momentum beginning to recover.
The price simultaneously stabilized at 0.3613 without breaking down. I followed up when the golden cross was confirmed and the price stood above 0.3613, setting the stop loss at the previous low.
Controlled position at 2% with 20x leverage. After the KDJ low-level golden cross, the price moved up unilaterally, extremely smoothly. Now pushing a trailing stop to prevent pullback. $ONE $AKE #BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 🔥All bearish factors invalidated! Bitcoin violently surged above 81,000, short sellers were directly crushed
Wow, last night's volume-driven rally was really fierce, OKX Bitcoin current price 80,957, up 5.56% in 24h,
The difference between the high and low points is nearly 5,000 dollars, many shorts must have slept uneasily overnight.
Fed raised rates by 25bp, hawkish dot plot, CLARITY Act setback, a bunch of obvious bearish news hit the market, yet it stubbornly didn't fall. Simply put, the selling pressure has already been exhausted, short positions are almost wiped out.
The real booster: BTC spot ETF returned to a net inflow of 159 million USD, after continuous outflows, buying came back strong, this is the confidence behind this rebound.
Technical side slowly turning bullish ✅
4-hour lows keep rising, daily MACD green bars narrowing, trend shifting from correction to rebound
▪️ Resistance above: 81,400, break targets 82,300~83,000
▪️ Short-term support: 79,500-79,800, lifeline at 78,000
From the bottom of my heart: don't rush to chase highs around 81,300 now, the stronger the rally, the more likely a sharp pullback. Better wait for a pullback to 79,500–80,000 to stabilize before acting, surviving to ride the trend is much more important than gambling on a top.
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 Official positive announcement for two hours, $DUSK only dropped -0.91%: the market is waiting for volume
$DUSK dipped to 0.0696 then pulled back to 0.0771, the official positive news two hours ago did not sustain momentum.
I'm bullish but not chasing; above 0.0776 counts, below 0.0725 cut losses.
The announcement is about Hedger, encrypted and verifiable balance transfers on DuskEVM.
Two key points — market cap $38.76 million, official intent to attract privacy users; the market is in an offensive phase (BTC 81436), 70 up 11 down, median increase 3.981%.
After the event, price moved from 0.0769 to 0.0762 (-0.91%), volume ratio 1.152 — the positive news didn't make an impact.
Resistance above: 0.0776 (1h SAR) → 0.0779 (24h high)
Support below: 0.0732 (4h SAR) → 0.0725 (MA30)
Watershed level: 0.0732. Hold above to target 0.0782, break below to target 0.0696.
More likely to consolidate before choosing direction — MACD's death cross 8 days ago is bearish, but RSI 57.5 is relatively strong, 4h SAR supports. Do not chase at 0.0762, enter above 0.0776, exit below 0.0725. Stay focused and don't get lost.
$DUSK $BTC$ETH: Long (Follow the trend and buy on pullback)
Strategy:
· Buy gradually on pullback to the 2630-2640 range (around 1-hour MA5/MA10) and stabilize.
· If volume breaks above the previous high of 2663, lightly add to long positions following the trend.
· Stop loss: exit if it falls below 2620 (below MA20).
Core basis:
1. Chip perspective: Whale long-short ratio is as high as 379%, with long positions at 1.51B crushing shorts at 400M. Long average price is 2483, with unrealized profits over 90 million U; short average price is 2511, fully losing, with strong short squeeze momentum.
2. Technical perspective: On the 1-hour level, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are in a bullish alignment, and price stands above the moving averages. After a large rise from 2460, it is currently consolidating with low volume at a high level, forming a bullish continuation pattern.
3. Capital perspective: Funding rate is positive at 0.0083%, with 30-minute net sell of 12.67M slightly exceeding net buy of 10.09M, indicating short-term selling pressure at high levels, providing a pullback buying opportunity. Overall sentiment is bullish but not overheated.
$BTC
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% I kept seeing the same post from @Zdacted and finally got the point.
Most #Privacy projects overexplain the tech before anyone cares. This account does the opposite. Reveal almost nothing, make people curious, then let the community fill in the blanks.
Simple GTM, but the mystery is working. I’m watching what gets unredacted next
zcash:native$NEAR SEC exemption boosts sentiment, NEAR oscillates with a bullish bias alongside the broader market
The SEC's regulatory exemption for tokenized stocks has driven assets like UNI to surge, warming the overall risk appetite in the crypto market. Although NEAR did not directly benefit, as a high Beta asset (a type with volatility more intense than the broader market), its price often follows market sentiment. If regulatory concerns ease, capital may flow back into major public blockchains. In the short term, sentiment-driven strength is expected; in the medium term, actual capital inflows will be key. Currently, the outlook remains oscillating with a bullish bias, but caution is advised for potential pullbacks after sentiment fades.
Trend conclusion: short-term bullish, medium-term oscillation
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21%