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$MINIMAX $ZHIPU
MINIMAX is about to release its 2026 mid-year report. Observing the current K-line pattern, the stock price is expected to reach a resistance level—the previous high of 400 HKD. It is recommended that everyone consider the financial report before making decisions, but I myself can't wait to enter with a light position, after all, I am just an ordinary college student, and even if I lose money, it will be a small amount 😁
Here is a breakdown of the valuation logic for MiniMax's two main businesses:
1. Consumer side (Talkie + Conch AI)
Benchmarking overseas AI consumer applications, looking at ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue), assigning a medium PS multiple.
Advantages: provides cash flow; Disadvantages: fierce competition, visible ceiling, valuation is destined not to be too high.
2. Business side API open platform
Benchmarking Zhipu, Anthropic, the model API business can enjoy a higher valuation.
The business side is the biggest source of valuation elasticity for MiniMax: if the business side proportion continues to increase, the market is willing to give a higher valuation; if it remains highly dependent on the consumer side, the valuation will be suppressed.
The financial report needs to verify the following:
1. Latest ARR figure, the company aims to reach 1 billion USD by year-end;
2. Revenue structure: whether the proportion of business side API revenue has increased, which is a key factor affecting valuation;
3. Changes in gross margin, whether the loss rate has narrowed;
4. Payment and retention data for Talkie and Conch; M3 model commercialization guidance
Personal opinion, combined with AI analysis, if you have good ideas please share 😊Goldman Sachs is buying villas by the sea in reverse. They have started hyping Korean stocks again, $SKHYNIX.
MXAPJ rose another 1%, MSCI adjusted $42 billion in passive flows: Goldman Sachs Asia-Pacific Weekly Report
Foreign capital is selling, but the index is rising——
Goldman Sachs released its Asia-Pacific weekly market outlook on August 22: Despite foreign capital resuming sales, the Hong Kong and China offshore markets rebounded and Asian currencies strengthened. The MSCI Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) index rose another 1%; amid rising oil prices, tech exports remain resilient.
Foreign capital flows: South Korea is the hardest hit by sell-offs
Emerging Asia (excluding China) saw a net foreign capital outflow of $1.5 billion, with South Korea dragging the most with a $1.6 billion net outflow.
Hedge funds: After record net sales in July, Asia continued marginal net selling in August but at a slower pace—Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan had the largest net sales, while China saw net buying. Mutual funds (July): increased holdings in South Korea, reduced in Taiwan and China.
The tension in this weekly report lies in the divergence of "foreign capital selling, index rising"—South Korea was sold off by $1.6 billion yet led the region's gains, relying on a rebound in chip exports and currency strength; China offshore +3% benefited from southbound funds and valuation recovery. The $42 billion MSCI passive flows (inflows to Japan, India, Taiwan; outflow from South Korea) will be realized on August 31—the battle between active and passive funds is the main theme for the Asia-Pacific market before month-end. Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation on South Korea, betting that the chip cycle plus currency appreciation story is not over yet. #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 $ZRO surged 50% weekly, showing strong event-driven sentiment premium, but the failure of the Fee Switch to pass three times resulted in no direct revenue capture, creating intense competition with the year-end Zero L1 mainnet Gas token narrative.
On the chart, there is dense selling pressure between 1.16-1.18 above, and a short-term bullish defense line formed at 0.95-0.96 below. Event-driven factors have caused chips to concentrate short-term in high-risk appetite funds, but inflation and insufficient ecological asset accumulation limit the continuity of position increases.
Among the driving factors, the $112.7 million buyback plan's bottoming effect ranks first in boosting short-term sentiment. Institutional support from a16z and Citadel has intensified expectations for the Zero L1 mainnet, while the Fee Switch's failure to pass, which suppresses the token's fundamentals, is temporarily marginalized by the market.
In the bullish scenario, if bulls complete turnover above the 0.95-0.96 support and break through the 1.18 resistance with volume, funds will continue to play on the mainnet launch benefits. This scenario requires monitoring market risk appetite improvement and mainnet progress; failure to break 1.18 resistance invalidates the scenario.
In the bearish scenario, if the liquidation risk from losing 12 partners and over $15 billion in assets this year is repriced, the price will break below the 0.95 support. Triggering this scenario requires observing the selling pressure from profit-taking; if a quick rebound occurs above 0.95, the bearish scenario is invalidated.
The trust shadow cast by the Lazarus attack discounts ecological premium, and excessive fund concentration on unrealized expectations easily triggers forced liquidation from leveraged chasing. Once the $112.7 million buyback is completed and if the mainnet launch is delayed, positions will face a rapid fundamental revaluation with no revenue capture.
The key variables to watch in the next 7 days are the turnover rate at the 1.16-1.18 resistance and the strength of bullish defense at the 0.95 support.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？I find this market movement quite interesting. BTC has indeed surged this week, jumping directly from 64,000 to nearly 80,000, but it clearly got stuck at the 80,000 mark and is now hovering around 77,000.
Here’s a brief summary of my view:
I think the main reason is improved macro liquidity, with US Treasury yields declining, plus Trump signaling support for crypto, which has clarified regulatory expectations. But the most direct driver is actually a "short squeeze"—a large number of shorts had accumulated earlier, and as the price rose, shorts were forced to cover by buying, which trampled the price upward.
The key is whether ETF funds can continue to take over. This week, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of over 1 billion USD, indicating institutions are putting real money in, which is a good sign. But if the short squeeze ends and no new funds enter, a pullback is very likely.
Trading suggestions:
- BTC: Don’t blindly chase the highs now; there is strong resistance at 80,000. I think it’s better to wait and see. If it pulls back to the 74,000–75,000 support range, consider lightly buying in; if it breaks and holds above 80,000 with volume, then consider following up.
- ETH: Follow BTC’s lead. It’s currently above 2,400 USD. If BTC stabilizes, ETH may have more room to catch up. Keep an eye on support around 2,350.
In short, the battle between bulls and bears is intense right now. Manage your position size carefully and avoid leverage. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $ZRO has risen quite a lot today. However, I don't think it can maintain such a high price now. There are two main reasons. On one hand, this project has been abandoned by many teams; on the other hand, the coin's data does not support its continued rise. If someone considers it the light of the bear market just because of its current rise, I think that's a bit too arbitrary. This coin is unlikely to sustain this kind of increase. —————————————————— This coin is a cross-chain project. During the previous KelpDAO hack incident, it exposed many problems. Afterwards, due to the fact that it neither took responsibility nor tried to solve the issues, and kept shifting blame, many teams abandoned it. So the project itself no longer holds much value. This is one reason I believe it cannot sustain the current rise. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. We can see that its contract long-short ratio has been continuously decreasing during its rise phase, while the corresponding contract open interest has been continuously increasing. This indicates that many shorts entered during its rise. Looking at a longer time frame, we find that its current contract long-short ratio has dropped to the level of July 28, and the contract open interest has exceeded the level of July 28. If we check the candlestick chart of July 28, we can see that was the high point of the previous rebound #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
Is 149 HKD expensive after the drop? Market page (09992.HK): PE (TTM) about 13x, PB 7.47x, market cap 198.4 billion. Compared to the historical 30x PE, the bubble has basically been squeezed out, returning from growth premium to value range, valuation is quite conservative. A 13x PE for a company still growing revenue by 20% is indeed not expensive.
Revenue +23.8%, net profit +9.5% in the first half of the year, 13x PE corresponds to about 10% profit growth, not expensive; but with a high base, growth may be lower next year, bears say 13x is not cheap either. The tug-of-war itself means range oscillation, one-sided bets are risky. Cheap valuation and immediate stock price rise are two different things.
The average price from 20 institutions is 168.64, about 13% upside compared to the current price, mainstream expectations are for a "slight recovery" rather than a "reversal." 13x already prices in most pessimism, looking down at overseas inventory clearance, looking up at Star People taking over. Valuation is not extreme but needs performance confirmation to open up space.
If next year's profit growth can return to above 15%, 13x PE could recover to 18-20x, giving the stock 30-50% upside. Conversely, if overseas inventory and guidance continue to worsen, 13x could drop to 10x. Valuation is a result, not a cause; cheap now does not mean immediate rise, performance inflection point confirmation is needed.
$POPMART That load-bearing wall groans with the tension of steel rebar at 2 a.m.—this weekly ETH bullish candle isn’t built from bricks and stones, it’s fueled by liquidations. $110 million in forced liquidations over 24 hours sounds like muffled blasts at a demolition site; the dust hasn’t settled yet, and the $697M ETF pump truck is already in place, pouring high-grade concrete into the 2026 foundation.
You have to understand the dual geology of this construction site. What is short covering? It’s removing temporary counter-pressure piles, an elastic release that can’t support a permanent structure. The continuous inflow of spot ETFs, however, is like a static pile driver inching the load down to the bearing layer. That "nearly 30% weekly gain" looks to me like the sway of a tower crane’s jib—scary to watch, but the tension in the steel cables all hinges on the "funding rate" pin. The pile cap hasn’t cured yet; high leverage is like premature formwork removal. When the rainy season comes, no matter how polished the surface looks, cracks will appear.
I’ve drawn too many "skyscraper illusions" on blueprints. The whitepaper is a concept drawing, locked tokens are the reflective curtain wall, but the real structural safety lies in the "concrete mix ratio" of on-chain addresses—the influx of new addresses is the aggregate, long-term holders are the cement slurry, and that $1.1 billion liquidation volume is just the bleed water layer squeezed out by over-vibration. The question now is: is that ETF pump truck laying the foundation slab, or did it just pour a raft foundation and leave? If demand dries up, the remaining high-leverage "cantilever slabs" will sway midair; a gust of wind will cause oscillations more honest than candlesticks.
As for linked assets like XMSFT, they’re just billboard ads on the construction fence—no matter how skyscraper-like the painting, they won’t pass final inspection. Yield strength of steel, weld inspection reports, static load tests of pile foundations—none of these can be faked by market sentiment. This 2500 axis on-chain is stuck right in the core zone of the structural transition layer, below which crouches the USDE Treasury liquidation channel underwritten by Cantor Fitzgerald. Whether this building can keep rising doesn’t depend on how fast the scaffolding goes up, but on when the "regulatory" geological survey report gets stamped.
When the construction log reaches the page "short-term liquidation density too high," a smart supervisor will crouch down to check crack widths instead of looking up to count floors. Those who rush to remove side forms before the concrete has fully set usually hear the sound of steel yielding on delivery day. #ETHTests2500 $BTC BTC has pulled back to 76515, a normal retracement after a sharp surge.
· This week, it violently surged over 20% from 63000, with shorts liquidated for 4.5 billion dollars in three days
· Spot ETF has had net inflows of about 1.9 billion dollars for 5 consecutive days, institutions are buying with real money
· Funding rates have fallen back, this round is driven by spot buying rather than new leverage—solid structure
· Whale signals are contradictory: Cardone Capital bought 350 coins, while another whale holds 2555 coins (~197 million dollars) on an exchange
80000 is strong resistance, 68000-69000 is the cost line.
Spot buying is continuing, but whales are also exiting—keep an eye on how 80000 behaves. $HYPE has hit new highs these days, reaching up to $82.43. But I think it's a bit late to discuss "why it’s rising" now. What’s really worth studying is: can Hyperliquid continue to make money? Because it has now formed a very interesting chain: More traders ↓ Larger perpetual contract trading volume ↓ Higher protocol revenue ↓ Revenue used to buy back HYPE ↓ Reduced circulating supply in the market ↓ HYPE valuation increases ↓ Higher valuation attracts more capital attention This is the real reason I focus on HYPE. And now it has another card: If US regulation really opens a compliance gateway → Hyperliquid’s user base and trading volume ceiling could further increase. But don’t forget the other side. Right after HYPE hit a new all-time high, there was already a large transfer of positions to exchanges. So the most dangerous move now is: "It’s at a new high, it must keep rising, just chase it." I would rather wait for it to prove itself: can $76–78 become support? If it holds, then breaking through $82 again, the next stage could see **$85, $90, or even $100**. If it doesn’t hold, it means the market needs to digest the profit-taking first. So for HYPE now, I wouldn’t simply classify it as a “shitcoin.” It’s more like it’s undergoing a market valuation test: Is it just sentiment pushing it to $82, or does the real income generated by Hyperliquid truly justify a higher HY valuation?99% of people misunderstand the meaning of value investing, foolishly thinking that buying something that looks pretty good and never selling it is value investing. The vast majority of people's understanding of value investing might be a mix of these three conditions: "the price is not low, although it looks promising, it requires imagination to support and realize it." This is not value investing; this is a huge gamble. Nowadays, information is not lacking, and identifying "a target that might have great potential" is not difficult, such as the current AI stocks, spcx, btc eth hype, etc. Left gold right cake. Recently, with the sudden surge in crypto and the cooling off of the US stock market, a friend jokingly discovered a pattern: you just need to buy when everyone else is mocking and it feels like a pile of crap, and buy whoever is being mocked or looks like a pile of crap. It's not a bad strategy. And why is the title called "The Best Strategy for Ordinary People"? Because ordinary people actually have an advantage compared to institutions. Even if they don't make money, even if they are chasing highs, clients are willing to chase the hottest things now, while institutions just want to sell their products, naturally buying whatever is hot, regardless of whether you are chasing highs or whether you make money. Left gold right cake. So the advantage of retail investors here is precisely: flexibility and tolerance. You can actively buy those "things that now seem to be very good in the long term, but the price is undervalued or even mocked." The above strategy might be a very good active strategy, but it requires very strong discipline and does not conflict with the previously mentioned mindless dollar-cost averaging. Mindless dollar-cost averaging, itAs expected, selling shovels is always the most profitable.
NVIDIA servers are about to increase in price, with the increase exceeding 15% in many cases. The contract manufacturers building data centers for Microsoft, Google, and Oracle have already notified their clients to prepare for price hikes. The reason is the soaring cost of memory chips, and NVIDIA itself has not responded. Coincidentally, next Wednesday after the U.S. stock market closes (early Thursday morning Beijing time), NVIDIA will release its Q2 earnings report, which the entire market is eagerly awaiting.
Wow, servers are already expensive, and a 15% price increase makes me cringe just hearing about it. The price hike also means handing a knife to Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta's self-developed chips, but NVIDIA's software ecosystem moat is so deep that new data centers still can't avoid using its cards. On Friday, its stock closed down 0.98%, with a market value of $5.2 trillion, firmly holding the title of the world's top stock.
In short, with this memory price hike, NVIDIA will pass the cost downstream. How well the gross margin holds up in next week's earnings report depends on what Jensen Huang has to say. #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% Nearly $2 billion inflow over 6 consecutive days, but $BTC's rebound is saying goodbye to "easy mode"
BTC has surged from $58,000 to $79,500 in this round, with a gain of over 37% in nearly two weeks. The core driver is the continuous accumulation of ETF funds. From August 19 to 23, the US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.94 billion, with a daily average exceeding $320 million. Institutional buying is the most stable ballast for this rally.
However, as the rebound progresses, the situation is changing. The previous main drivers—the short squeeze and leveraged chasing—have basically been exhausted. The key going forward is whether ETF funds are willing to continue buying at high levels around $80,000. If institutions maintain strong buying, BTC is expected to consolidate and then challenge the $80,000-$82,000 range; if inflows cool significantly and new buying breaks down, the price may retrace to $75,000 or even $73,500, completing a healthy profit-taking digestion.
In the short term, $77,500 is the pivot point for the bulls and bears tug-of-war. Next week's ETF data will be a key variable in judging the strength of the trend. Before the direction becomes clear, watch more and act less, waiting for confirmation signals before making moves. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 🔥ETH is no longer the "world computer"; it is becoming the "liquidation foundation for RWA"—but there's a catch with $ETH
Many people still criticize ETH using old frameworks: mainnet Gas at freezing point, burning can't keep up with issuance, price underperforming BTC. But if you piece together the upgrade chains for 2025–2026, you'll see its positioning has changed.
1) Technical foundation: Pectra + Fusaka transform ETH into an "L2 data layer"
May 2025 Pectra: EIP-7702 account abstraction, validator limit raised from 32 to 2048, Blob target from 3 to 6.
December 2025 Fusaka mainnet activates PeerDAS, Blob target raised from 6 to 14, max 21, data availability capacity expands about 8 times; Glamsterdam in the second half of the year will further raise L1 Gas limit to 200 million.
Result: L2 daily transactions about 24.6 million, more than 10 times the mainnet; L2 total TVL about $37.4 billion; mainnet median fee compressed to $0.008, but Blob settlement still completed on mainnet.
2) Institutional narrative: RWA + stablecoins are the real buying points
Stablecoin supply on Ethereum is about $148–299 billion range (depending on metrics), RWA about $15.5–17.2 billion, still the largest settlement layer for tokenized assets.
$ETH Now that the AI bull market has reached this point, I believe a very important change is happening: the money earned by the industry chain is starting to seriously consider how to return to shareholders.
Samsung's shareholder return plan of up to about $80 billion, on the surface, looks like a matter of buybacks and dividends, but behind it actually represents a corporate rebalancing of cash flow and capital allocation.
In the past, the most important keyword for the AI industry chain was "capacity expansion": building factories, buying equipment, increasing HBM capacity; everyone was eager to pour all the money in.
But capital expenditure cannot grow indefinitely.
When companies are willing to allocate more funds to reward shareholders, it to some extent indicates the industry is moving from pure "growth talk" to a "growth + realization" phase.
I actually think this is an important signal for whether the AI bull market can go further.
A truly healthy tech cycle cannot rely forever on rising valuations; it must ultimately turn into profits, cash flow, and then shareholder returns.
The story is responsible for opening up valuations, profits are responsible for maintaining valuations.
What’s truly worth watching next in the AI industry chain is no longer just order growth, but who can truly turn AI dividends into free cash flow.
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 BTC relative strength signals a market phase shift. ETH is falling more than 2.5 times compared to BTC, but is this simply risk aversion or a sign of capital selection? The original text states BTC dropped 1.74% to $76,980 while ETH plunged 4.19% to $2,410, widening the return gap between the two assets by 2.45 percentage points. Both assets remain above the 4-hour supertrend line, but the asymmetry in decline is clear. The core of this correction is the difference in relative strength rather than direction. This decoupling suggests two things about market structure. First, capital is flowing into BTC, a highly liquid asset, withdrawing from ETH and altcoins. Second, it indicates a possible shift from a broad rally to a selective upward phase. If BTC holds $74,000 while ETH weakness continues, it can be interpreted that the market is moving past a phase where all assets rise to one where stock picking becomes crucial. From a derivatives positioning perspective, this trend creates a squeeze path.I just understood why $BICAT suddenly got hyped 😂
Base has BASECAT, Robinhood has CASHCAT.
8 months ago Binance released a cat, and Flap named it:
Bicat.
Now this phrase has been rediscovered and turned directly into a Meme narrative.
Sometimes Meme is just this absurd:
First, someone believes the story, then the market prices the story.
But to be clear:
$BICAT is not an official Binance coin.
Now there's just one question left:
@okx, what's your cat called? 😂$ZRO ZRO surged 50% in a week, narrative is strong but fundamentals are weak.
· Zero L1 mainnet launching by year-end, ZRO will become the Gas token; backed by institutions like a16z, Citadel
· $112.7 million buyback plan as a floor, but fee switch failed three times, ZRO still lacks direct revenue capture
· Lost 12 partners this year, over $15 billion assets fled, Lazarus attack shadow still lingers
Resistance at 1.16-1.18 above, support at 0.95-0.96 below.
Short-term sentiment game, long-term depends on mainnet launch and trust rebuilding. ⚔️ Manstein's Two Cards: Blitzkrieg and Elastic Defense Manstein's strategic core is the switch between two forms: "Blitzkrieg" — concentrating forces, rapid breakthrough, annihilating the enemy before they can react; "Elastic Defense" — active withdrawal, luring the enemy deep, then counterattacking when the opponent shows a weakness. ZEC's current scenario is a perfect example of Blitzkrieg. 🚀 Act One: The Blitzkrieg is over On August 21, Grayscale submitted the fifth amendment of the Zcash ETF to the SEC. Grayscale officially renamed the trust to "The Zcash ETF," ticker ZCSH, with an annual fee of 2.5%, and custody by Coinbase Custody. Then ZEC went crazy. It surged over 22% in 24 hours, hitting $855 intraday, the highest since 2018. Spot trading volume was $1.06 billion, derivatives trading volume $9.54 billion — pushed by 9x leverage. Open interest contracts totaled $1.76 billion. Market cap $13.8 billion. What characterizes Blitzkrieg? Concentrated forces, rapid breakthrough, the battle ends before the enemy can react. ZEC rose from 250 to 855 in just two months — this is not a slow bull market, it's a standard "sickle harvest." Grayscale's report states: Zcash's privacy features may be indispensable in the AI era; if market share rises from 0.4% to 5%, ZEC's value could increase 9-fold. The report also reveals that about 90% of Zcash network transactions are shielded transactions. But the Blitzkrieg's most$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $BTC pushed toward $80K, while the bigger story unfolded in Washington. Within just a few days: • SEC proposed a new framework for crypto fundraising • CFTC moved toward a clearer digital-asset market structure • White House publicly backed crypto and pushed Congress on the CLARITY Act That combination matters. This looks less like another short-term headline pump and more like the U.S. moving from “regulate through enforcement” → “build clear rules for the industry.” If this direction continueETH data this week: Bitcoin had a net inflow of $1.9 billion in a single week, a historic-level inflow. Ethereum also surged with $697 million, marking the largest single-week inflow for $ETH since last October. Together, the two markets totaled $2.6 billion, with trading volume soaring from $6.9 billion directly to $22.1 billion, more than tripling. The key point is that last week there was still a net outflow of $390 million, so the turnaround in just one week was really fast and reversed the trend.
For the past half year, Ethereum has basically been a background player. Bitcoin ETFs have been pouring in hundreds of billions, while the volume for ETH ETFs is just a fraction of that. The market has started seriously pondering a painful question—are institutions no longer interested in ETH? But it's understandable why people think this way, since over the past six months, the ETH/BTC ratio has been heading south, dropping sharply.
However, this week ETH finally showed strength, with the exchange rate pulling back to 0.031 and the price breaking through 2300, rising 25% in a week. Hopefully, this momentum continues next week. BlackRock's ETHA alone saw $173 million in a single day, with a cumulative total of $12 billion; institutions really haven't been idle and have been quietly accumulating.
Honestly, the institutional strategy is very transparent: $BTC acts as the ballast, $ETH provides flexibility. Now that funds are shifting from risk aversion to expansion, the first step is to allocate ETH. If BTC's market dominance peaks and ETH's exchange rate stabilizes, the altcoin season might really be coming. This $697 million could very well be the first ray of light.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 After BTC's drop, the bulls also fell—doesn't this rhythm look like a deliberate leverage cleanup? Have you noticed that the harshest part of this round of sell-off isn't the direction but the positions? BTC quickly dropped from around 79,000 to 76,500, with about $1.7 billion liquidated across the market in 24 hours. The shorts were just forced out a few days ago; today it's the high-leverage longs getting taken out. The price has now bounced back to around 77,200. In the short term, the focus isn't on whether to bottom-fish but whether it can first reclaim the lost ground at 78,000. ETH was dragged down to around $2,426, with about $293 million liquidated intraday, but its support after the drop is clearly stronger than most altcoins, already rebounding to around 2,430. What does this indicate? In this round of cleansing, ETH seems to be the one that funds are more willing to catch. OKB's volatility increased today, reaching nearly $120 intraday before quickly falling back. After consecutive rises, profit-taking has begun, making the $110 area a tug-of-war focal point between bulls and bears. This trend reminds me of one thing: when a coin starts to strengthen independently from the broader market, its pullbacks tend to be more intense because all the gains are unrealized profits. SanDisk closed near $1.596 on Friday and has recently started extending its product line toward NAS and private cloud storage. The market is no longer just looking at the simple NAND price increase logic. QQQ closed at 713.44, up 0.35%. After U.S. Treasury yields stopped rising, tech stocks have temporarily caught a breather. SK On August 23, capital inflow situation, leverage retreat at 11:30 AM, $BTC BTC mark price at $76,992, down 2.22%, open interest dropped to $8.185 billion and contracted by 1.4%.
The active buy-sell ratio is only 0.82, indicating active selling still dominates, but the funding rate remains +0.01%, with longs still paying to hold positions.
If open interest expands again and the active buy-sell ratio rises above 1, the current deleveraging judgment fails.
$BTC and $ETH ETH spot exchange-traded fund weekly inflow reached $2.6 billion, with trading volume tripling compared to before, marking the strongest week since October last year.
This is mid-term supporting capital, but the current price has not strengthened accordingly, indicating that fund inflows have not yet translated into contract chasing.
If next week sees net capital outflow, this supporting logic fails. The US Treasury's repurchase adjustment previously triggered a short squeeze, but now open interest is declining and active buying is weak, so the short squeeze momentum has clearly cooled.
Only if the price rises along with open interest recovery can it be considered a new round of leveraged capital entering; otherwise, it remains a turnover of existing positions. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Over the past week, a set of data from the stablecoin market is quite interesting: In the seven days ending August 20, Circle issued about 7.5 billion USDC and redeemed 6.7 billion, resulting in a net increase of approximately 800 million. This pushed the total circulation to a scale of $72.7 billion. In the current market phase, a nearly $1 billion net weekly increase is definitely not a small number. The signal it sends is much more honest than simply looking at the candlestick charts. Many people see stablecoin issuance and their first reaction is "new funds are entering the market to buy." This is true, but the structure must also be considered. First, the issuance volume of 7.5 billion and redemption volume of 6.7 billion means the liquidity in the pool is extremely active. Large funds are frequently switching between the crypto market and traditional finance. A net retention of 800 million in one week indicates that institutions or whales still generally prefer to convert cash into on-chain "dry powder." Secondly, the destination of this money matters. The ecosystems of USDC and USDT differ significantly. USDT is more active in the Asia-Pacific region and mainstream derivatives exchanges, while USDC firmly occupies the compliant US-backed DeFi, institutional lending, and Coinbase ecosystems. A net increase in USDC often means that compliant capital from Europe and the US, or high-risk/high-yield arbitrage funds on-chain, are becoming more active again. When looking at USDC data, one cannot ignore its $72.9 billion reserve portfolio. $48.1 billion is in overnight reverse repos, $12.7 billion in short-term government bonds within three months, plus $11.4 billion in systemically important institution deposits The first large-scale "long squeeze" in crypto history has been recorded.
On 8.19, short liquidations reached 2.739 billion, accounting for over 90% of total liquidations, marking the largest short liquidation in history.
Among the top 10 liquidation events, this is the only time shorts dominated—previously, it was always crashes triggering long liquidations.
After a prolonged range-bound period, short positions were overfilled; combined with policy and liquidity shocks, forced liquidations acted as an accelerator for buying.
This time, the Trump administration is not just talk—Clarity + CFTC are proactively embracing changes, signaling the start of structural shifts.
Squeeze fuel is limited; the follow-up depends on whether spot and ETFs can keep up. But if shorts want to keep shorting infinitely, the cost will be much higher.
For leveraged players, discipline is more important than faith. #BTC fluctuates after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500 #US PMI exceeds expectations and strengthens, the market logic is quietly changing📊
US PMI data released, recorded at 56.0, the highest in four years since April 2022, with the services PMI reaching 56.8.
Economic resilience exceeds expectations, market expectations for a Fed rate cut cool down again, and the divergence over whether to restart rate hikes in September has further widened.
However, looking closely at the market, BTC is not directly influenced by a single economic data point. After surging above 77000 a few days ago, volatility intensified, with a 24-hour liquidation scale reaching $1.7 billion, indicating that the current market is driven by leveraged funds and market sentiment rather than a single macro indicator.
$ETH shows even more exaggerated elasticity, with a weekly increase close to 30%, temporarily outperforming BTC, currently hovering around $2420. After a rapid rise, profit-taking has accumulated, and the risk of a subsequent pullback should not be underestimated.
On the other hand, gold has stabilized above $4600. This round of price increase is no longer driven by traditional safe-haven logic but by market pricing of the US dollar's credit, US debt expansion, and long-term currency depreciation.
Macro data and market sentiment have already diverged.
Strong PMI data does not mean Bitcoin will immediately decline; continuous gold strength does not mean the crypto market will follow suit upward.
The more accelerated and heated the short-term market and sentiment, the less suitable it is to blindly chase highs.
What should be waited for now is a round of leverage clearing and sufficient chip turnover before judging the subsequent direction.
$BTC $ETH $XAUAfter the violent surges and crashes of mainstream coins like $BTC and $ETH, why is it surprisingly calm today?
This "sudden calm after violent surges and crashes" essentially represents a weak equilibrium state caused by the combined effects of extreme market conditions leading to leverage liquidation, emotional cooling, and a news vacuum — a few days ago, high leverage amplified the volatility to the extreme; now that leverage has been cleaned out, news has been digested, and both bulls and bears are exhausted, the market naturally enters a sideways consolidation phase.
1. Core reason: mass liquidation of high leverage, the market loses its volatility amplifier
This is the most direct cause. The violent surges and crashes over the past three days were essentially leverage cascade liquidations amplifying the market: during rises, short positions were liquidated, passively pushing prices up; during falls, long positions were liquidated, passively pushing prices down. The actual proportion of real buy and sell orders was relatively low.
After two rounds of simultaneous bull and bear liquidations, most high-leverage positions have been cleaned out: data shows that current 1-hour global liquidations are only about $1.7 million, vastly different from the peak single-hour scale of over $500 million. The total open interest in the market has also significantly declined. Without the "boosting/dropping" effect of leverage liquidations, the market returns to a real buy-sell battle, and volatility naturally narrows sharply, making it appear "calm."
2. News enters a vacuum period, bulls and bears find no reason to push
This round of market movement was triggered by dual catalysts: regulatory policies and macro liquidity; the decline was driven by sentiment reversal and profit-taking. At present, both sides' logics have been temporarily digested:
- Positive side: Trump's push for digital asset regulatory legislation and expectations of US debt repurchase liquidity have been fully priced in during the surge. Subsequent progress depends on the substantive Senate vote in September; before that, no new unexpected positive news is expected;
- Negative side: concerns about geopolitical risks and repeated rate cut expectations have been quickly released during the drop, with no signs of further escalation for now.
Without major news to break the balance, funds collectively enter a wait-and-see mode, neither daring to chase highs recklessly nor boldly short, so prices naturally remain stuck in a range.
3. Capital divergence: institutions pause aggressive moves, retail investors hesitate to enter
Simultaneous weakening of buy and sell orders is a direct sign of sideways movement:
- Institutional side: BTC spot ETFs, which previously saw continuous large inflows, have slowed their inflow pace after price surged and then pulled back, shifting from aggressive multi-hundred-million-dollar daily inflows to minor fluctuations. Institutions have switched from "bottom-fishing and adding positions" to "observing and verifying";
- Retail side: after the recent dual bull and bear liquidations, many leveraged funds chasing highs or bottom-fishing were wiped out. Survivors have become cautious and no longer dare to open high-leverage positions easily, causing trading enthusiasm to cool rapidly.
With no new incremental funds entering and existing funds not stirring, trading volume shrinks accordingly, and the market naturally calms down.
4. Technicals stuck in a balanced chip zone, restrained both above and below
Current prices are stuck in a very awkward position:
- Above, the $75,000–$79,000 range accumulates many long positions trapped from chasing highs; any rebound into this zone faces selling pressure to break even;
- Below, the $70,000–$72,000 range is a previous breakout platform and a psychological support level for bottom-fishing funds, where buying support emerges.
Neither bulls nor bears have enough strength to break through the other's defense at once, resulting in repeated tug-of-war in the middle range and narrow oscillation.
5. ETH and other mainstream coins: no independent logic, just following BTC lying flat
ETH and other mainstream coins have been following BTC's "rise and fall" throughout this round, lacking independent catalysts and behaving as beta assets. With BTC losing direction and entering sideways, mainstream coins naturally synchronize into oscillation; due to poorer liquidity and higher retail participation, their trading willingness declines faster during sideways phases, making them appear even more "calm" than BTC.
How to break the calm? Focus on 3 signals
This sideways phase won't last forever and will eventually choose a direction. The core observation points are three indicators:
1. Capital signal: whether BTC spot ETFs show renewed sustained large net inflows or continuous net outflows, directly reflecting institutional attitudes;
2. Volume signal: whether trading volume expands again, accompanied by price breaking key support/resistance levels; only a volume-backed breakout is a valid directional signal;
3. News signal: pre-events like the September regulatory bill vote and Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be the fuse for the next market move.
The current calm is not the end of the market but a halftime break after intense volatility. After leverage decreases, the market will shift from "emotional battles" back to "logical verification." Whether it continues upward or retests lows depends on whether fundamentals can keep pace.
Risk reminder: This article is only a market logic analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please assess risks rationally and make cautious decisions. The market drama continues, with holders paying a mental tax 🤯
This market is literally playing out like a drama series.
Previously, the ETH2273 short position was on the verge of forced liquidation, with a floating loss of 4300U causing sleepless nights.
Three hundred million from the ETF entered to firmly support 2400, forcing shorts out, but now anxiety about missing out has set in again.
Is the sideways movement a healing phase, or just a new way to keep tormenting people?
BTC surged to 79000 and entered a grinding mode, with continuous net inflows from ETFs, yet the price action has welded into a straight line.
The whales are snacking and watching the show, longs and shorts locked in a stalemate, just waiting for one side to concede first.
ETH2400 is a critical life-or-death threshold; holding it will trigger a second round of rally, losing it means free fall.
Be smart and stop stubbornly betting on one side; just pray not to get stuck in the middle being repeatedly crushed.
BTC volume is low, and altcoins are all paper tigers. The longer the sideways consolidation, the more violent the breakout will be.
Make the moves decisive! Every second of sideways trading, holders are paying an expensive mental tax.
(Contract trading is extremely risky and does not constitute investment advice)
$BTC
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Although there was a flash crash today, the overall volatility was still acceptable. Considering that weekends generally have low liquidity, and the price has risen more than 5% daily in the past two days, usually over the years, weekends are either quiet or experience big swings. Most of the time, they pass quietly. So I placed my dual-currency at $73,500, hoping the downside won't exceed 5.5%.
Indeed, if Bitcoin continues to rise, doing dual-currency will be a bit tiring. However, I still have some chips bought at $63,000 for bottom fishing. Should I start testing high selling from $80,000? I'm a bit conflicted now, and I'm also considering that some friends around me have cleared their spot positions. Should I hedge through options or futures?
My friends started clearing around $76,000. I plan to first see if it can break $80,000, which should be visible next week. If it can't break through in the short term, I might consider hedging my spot holdings. After all, I'm not very interested in selling $BTC, especially at this price. If I hedge, it would only be until before the midterm elections.
Speaking of the midterm elections, I have no hope for Trump and the Republican Party. Trump is messing with tariffs again before resolving the Hormuz issue. Inflation is already high due to rising oil prices. If the tariff war starts, the Republican Party really doesn't need to consider the 2028 election.
Regarding relations with Iran, I am beginning to lean towards "de-Americanization," meaning the new air route opened between Iran and Oman can be opened to countries other than the US and its allies. This could indeed help solve part of the high oil price problem, since the US really doesn't need the Strait of Hormuz. $SNDK has been consolidating and bottoming repeatedly in the $1570 to $1600 range after falling back from $1828. This area is the first structural support zone after the previous sharp drop, determining the pace of short-term profit-taking digestion. If it can hold steady in this range and recover above $1650 with volume, the upside potential may reopen toward $1800. Once the key support at $1570 is effectively broken, the structure will weaken further and slide toward the $1500 level.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注XRP surged 70% in a week, three major underlying reasons
$XRP's recent surge, reaching 1.7, is no longer driven solely by sentiment. Here are the deeper fundamental reasons:
1. Regulatory policy expectations heat up
The market is speculating on the advancement of the US CLARITY Act, which is expected to legally solidify XRP's status as a digital commodity in the secondary market. Expectations for a spot ETF are rising, significantly reducing institutional risk concerns and bringing in allocation buying.
2. Macro liquidity + contract short squeeze
The US Treasury expanded Treasury repurchase operations, boosting market risk appetite. The overall market short squeeze drives high Beta altcoins. XRP shorts are heavily liquidated, with weekly contract liquidations exceeding $1.5 billion, and forced buybacks further push up the price.
3. Whale chip concentration + sector rotation
Whales have cumulatively increased holdings by 300 million XRP over four days, with exchange inventories continuously declining. After BTC and ETH surged, existing funds rotated into previously stagnant large-cap altcoins, with XRP becoming the main target of capital.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 August 23, 2026｜BTC holds at 77,000, ETH catches up then hits the brakes, is no one paying attention to the US stock market anymore?
This morning $BTC reported at $77,249, down 0.77% in 24 hours; $ETH reported at $2,430, down 3.58%. BTC and ETH have no significant pullback, I believe they have started to stabilize: BTC rose nearly 20% in a week, the US spot BTC ETF has had net inflows of about $1.92 billion over 5 consecutive trading days, funds have not clearly withdrawn, but divergence appears around the $80,000 mark.
The US stock market rebounded on the last trading day, the Dow rose 0.98%, the S&P and Nasdaq both rose about 0.43%, Coinbase and Robinhood surged 8.2% and 13.7% respectively; but all three major indices still closed down on the weekly chart. The 30-year US Treasury yield stayed at 5.276%, Brent crude oil is near $94, fiscal pressure and energy inflation have not eased. The market is simultaneously buying BTC and gold while suppressing the dollar, the trade is still on the theme of “dilution of dollar purchasing power.” The US stock market rose by a few points, funds have clearly shifted to the crypto sector!
Over the weekend, I’ll watch BTC at $76,500 and ETH at $2,390. If they hold, the weekend looks more like high-level rotation; if they continue to break down with increased volume, it indicates that momentum chasing funds are concentrating on exiting.
Do you think BTC will break above 80,000 soon or will it break below 75,000 and trigger a short squeeze?SOLANA’S MONEY RULE CHANGE IS MORE IMPORTANT — AND SCARIER — THAN IT LOOKS.
Here’s the problem: people naturally vote based on what hurts right now.
See a problem today → vote to fix it today.
But what about the problems that decision creates tomorrow?
Jupiter DAO is a great example of why governance needs to think beyond the immediate issue.
Ethereum is stuck between two competing goals:
⚙️ Be the world computer
💰 Make ETH more valuable
Those goals can clash.
#DailyOrbit Yesterday (August 22), the crypto market experienced a flash crash, leaving many people stunned.
The daytime rally approached 80,000, but at night it plunged sharply.
Bitcoin consecutively broke through 78,000 and 77,000, briefly falling below 77,000 USD; Ethereum lost the 2,400 USD level; Solana plunged about 11.5% intraday; XRP was the worst hit, crashing 37% in minutes, down about 0.6 USD.
The liquidation data was alarming: a peak of 523 million USD liquidated across the network in one hour (long positions 448 million USD); within 24 hours, 286,130 people were forcibly liquidated, with total network liquidations exceeding 1.801 billion USD;
The largest single liquidation was 24.96 million USD on Hyperliquid BTC-USD;
About 500 million USD of long XRP positions were liquidated within minutes. The cause was not a black swan event but a leverage collapse.
1. The prior short squeeze was too intense, turning long leverage into a powder keg. From August 19 to 21, the market experienced nearly 3 billion USD nominal value short squeeze, pushing Bitcoin from 64,000 to above 77,000, a 20% rise in three days. The violent surge attracted a large amount of high-leverage chasing capital.
2. Chain liquidation of long positions at high levels. When technical resistance was hit and a preliminary pullback occurred, crowded long positions quickly fell below maintenance margin, triggering automatic liquidations. Market sell orders then broke through other defenses, causing a chain reaction of long liquidations, an avalanche within minutes.
3. Weekend liquidity drought amplified the flash crash. On Saturday, August 22, the order book was thin, and large sell orders easily penetrated buy orders, causing the flash crash.
4. No macro negative news, purely structural deleveraging. No Federal Reserve statements, hacks, or regulatory shocks—just an overly rapid rise, excessive leverage, and crowded positions that self-exploded. Analyst CW bluntly stated: during the decline, short positions did not increase but decreased; it was simply retail high-leverage longs being liquidated. Even in a bull market, such a scale of decline is inevitable.
Disagreements remain:
Some traders suspect manipulation (the timing of XRP’s flash crash coincided with a 37% drop after a 60% weekly rise); others believe it was necessary deleveraging, squeezing bubbles for a healthier bull market.
There was a precedent the day before (August 20): 2.98 billion USD liquidated network-wide, 174,764 people liquidated, the eighth largest in history. Every bull market correction is a lesson for leveraged traders. btc has started to adjust. Has 79000 peaked?
Brothers, this round of gains lasted three days and the daily chart has started to turn bearish.
There was a very similar pattern in the summer of 2024:
btc hovered around 60000, then in June 2024 it oscillated near 78000, but in early July it dropped to a low of 48000.
We all know the rest of the story: btc broke through 67000, and the Fed's first cycle rate cut pushed btc up to 100000 USD within two months.
We can't judge the current market by past trends, but we all know the market never moves straight up; it always tests each range repeatedly.
Today btc started to adjust. I think 90000 is definitely achievable, but maybe not right now.
btc needs time to adjust and requires a suitable positive catalyst, combined with ETF capital inflows and the Fed's September meeting.
Could the 2024 script be replaying? Let's first see how far this rally can go. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $BTC $ETH $TRUMP Discussing the impact of the US debt crisis on the crypto space, let's first pour cold water on this: the default assumption that "debt crisis = Bitcoin surge" is not supported by historical data.
When a liquidity crisis actually breaks out, $BTC's first reaction is to crash along with everything else. In March 2020, it dropped as much as -55.6%, and in the 2022 rate hike year, it fell as much as -61.9%. The mechanism is straightforward: at the early stage of a crisis, everyone sells everything to convert to cash to cover margin calls, and since $BTC has the best liquidity and can be liquidated 24/7, it is actually sold off first — at that time, it is not a safe haven asset but an ATM.
Let's break it down into three phases. Worry phase: just concerns without actual crisis, safe-haven demand pushes hard assets up together, like now, gold up 13% in 30 days, $BTC up 20%. Outbreak phase: when the crisis really hits, liquidity is squeezed, and everything falls. Easing phase: central banks are forced to backstop, and the hard asset narrative is realized.
In short: the crisis itself is not bullish; the bailout is. What’s rising now is worry, not crisis.
Watch for one signal: the day $BTC and gold fall together and their correlation with US stocks spikes, that means we’ve entered the second phase.#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
A financial report, with broker opinions divided. Bulls: Morgan Stanley lowered the target price to 214 but still "overweight," reasoning that China remains the profit engine; Jefferies cut to 146 but still far above the current price (Sina Finance). Lowering the target price without turning bearish indicates the fundamentals still have support, just that the valuation midpoint has shifted down.
Bears: China Merchants Securities cut profit forecasts by 25% and gave a "sell" rating at HKD 121; Deutsche Bank warned early that the IP cycle has peaked (Hong Kong Commercial Daily). The two camps argue over "whether growth can continue" and whether the cooling overseas will drag down overall valuation and profit expectations.
The average target price from 20 institutions is HKD 168.64 (high 229, low 115), currently 149 below the average, consensus leans toward "recovery" rather than "collapse." Institutions are lowering targets but not panicking; this divergence is more credible than unanimous bullishness and also means the stock price is unlikely to surge or plunge sharply in the short term, suitable for observation rather than betting.
For retail investors, broker target prices are for reference only; the key is to calculate valuation yourself. A 13x PE, 20-institution average of 168, and industrial capital increasing holdings—these combined indicate the current position is closer to the bottom range rather than the top. But bottom does not mean immediate reversal; consensus recovery requires time and data validation. Don’t be led by a single research report, nor treat institutional divergence as noise; divergence itself means the odds are neutral.
$POPMART Samsung Shareholder Returns Implemented | Storage Cycle Signal Interpretation (August 23)
Event Core
Samsung's board has officially implemented the 2026 shareholder return plan, with a total scale of 90-110 trillion KRW, approximately $72 billion, setting a new record in South Korean corporate history and reaching five times the scale of the previous peak. In Q3, a priority cash dividend of 30 trillion KRW will be distributed, accompanied by a 15 trillion KRW employee stock buyback. The company is fulfilling its three-year commitment to use 50% of free cash flow for shareholder dividends and buybacks. This is combined with SK Hynix's 40 trillion KRW buyback and SanDisk's excess cash returned to shareholders.
Industry Logic
1. Actively controlling the pace of capacity expansion. After benefiting from the AI-HBM dividend, the storage giant has not reinvested all profits into new capacity but chooses to return cash to shareholders to alleviate future oversupply pressure, indirectly confirming the company's judgment that AI storage high demand has mid-term sustainability.
2. Reshaping sector valuation logic. The storage industry has experienced past cycles of sharp rises and falls, with weak long-term institutional holding willingness; normalized large-scale shareholder returns can smooth out cycle fluctuations and attract long-term capital to the semiconductor sector.
3. Potential risks: Dividends and buybacks do not guarantee a one-sided upward market; if downstream cloud vendors weaken procurement or capacity is released in concentration, the shareholder return plan may be adjusted.
Impact on Tokens in the Encrypted Storage Sector
The storage sector's positive factors have been partially priced in; crypto-related tokens only show sentiment linkage and do not have direct business benefits.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH BITCOIN IS FALLING — BUT THE REAL STORY MAY BE IN THE BOND MARKET
$BTC has pulled back from a recent high near $79.5K to around $76.8K. Looking at the chart, many would assume it’s simply profit-taking after a strong rally. But there may be another force at work: when U.S. Treasury yields rise, capital often rotates out of risk assets and toward safer returns.
Hidden signal: BTC may not be weakening because of crypto itself — but because macro liquidity is tightening.U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib was once a staunch anti-crypto advocate, even casting a vote against the crypto-supportive "CLARITY Act" on the floor. However, the latest financial disclosure reveals a cold, hard truth: her retirement account actually holds Grayscale Ethereum (ETH) ETF and Bitcoin (BTC) ETF.
1. Although Tlaib's holdings (up to $15,000 each) represent a small portion of her total assets, the impact lies in the irony. While she supports resolutions in Washington to ban "crypto corruption," her retirement fund is sustained by the gains of cryptocurrencies. This shows that in the eyes of Wall Street and top politicians, crypto assets have become an undeniable asset allocation trump card, no matter how much they publicly denounce them.
2. Note, she does not hold direct BTC or ETH, but ETFs. This precisely demonstrates the power of ETFs as a compliant shell—they allow institutions and politicians who pride themselves on being virtuous or constrained by regulations to comfortably enjoy crypto dividends without worrying about being labeled "coin-holding heretics."
* Since the "CLARITY Act" will be submitted to the Senate for review in September, scandals involving such lawmakers' holdings will become a major weapon for crypto lobbying groups. They will use this to attack the opposition's logical flaws: "If you think this is unsafe, why put your retirement funds in it?" This could subtly lower resistance to the bill's passage The next big blockchain battle may not be about speed. It may be about trust.
TradFi isn’t necessarily going to choose the fastest chain. It may choose the one that feels credibly neutral.
That’s the key trade-off Tushar is pointing to.
Hyperliquid can optimize aggressively for performance with a smaller validator set and tighter architecture. And users may happily accept that trade-off.
But institutions like Goldman Sachs may think differently.
#DailyOrbit A large bullish candlestick indeed signals the end of the bear market, but will the bull market really start immediately?
Looking back at the cycle bottom at the end of 2022, Bitcoin also formed consecutive large bullish candlesticks with increasing volume after stabilizing at a low level, strongly breaking through the "Bull Market Support Band." However, it did not immediately surge unilaterally; instead, it experienced months of consolidation and gradual decline, repeatedly testing support and absorbing selling pressure before officially launching a magnificent main upward wave.
History always rhymes similarly:
Definition of the large bullish candlestick: This week, the large bullish candlestick with increased volume surged directly to $79,000, successfully standing above the Bull-Bear Transition Band ($69,400–$69,500), basically confirming the effectiveness of $57,800 as the major bear market bottom, breaking the logic of blind bearishness.
Premise for the bull market to start: The price is still pressured by the 50-week moving average (SMA 50 around $81,784). As long as the weekly candle body does not increase volume and firmly stand above the 50-week moving average and the $81,900–$83,300 resistance zone, the market is most likely still in the "end of bear, beginning of bull" accumulation phase.
Conclusion: The end of the bear market does not equal an immediate bull market rally. It is highly probable that there will be a phase of gradual decline or pullback tests similar to historical patterns (such as double bottoms at $70k or even $63k). Patiently waiting for a pullback to stabilize and buying the dip, with the weekly candle firmly above SMA50, is the true signal for the bull market charge! Amazing, right?? #Niulai No KOL addresses in the top 40! Is it that KOLs are dumb? Or is there another reason?
Let's take a look at the latest data of Niulai!
Data changes of the top 40 Niulai token holding addresses on 2026.8.23
1: Pancake address: outflow 6.12%
Alpha address: inflow 52.89%
2: Top 10 addresses: 1 increased position, 1 newly entered, 1 reduced position
Top 20 addresses: 3 increased positions
Top 40 addresses: 2 reduced positions, 4 newly entered
$Niulai daily key summary:
After 3 days, I quickly checked the hot Niulai data. Currently, alpha inflow is accelerating, token price slightly declined. Among the top 40 addresses, 4 increased positions, 3 reduced positions. Overall, fewer people increased positions, but those who reduced sold a lot. A single address reduced by 4.5 million tokens, which is quite significant. This address is not the focus of this data. The main focus is on the 5 newly entered addresses this time. Among these 5 addresses, 3 transferred tokens from other addresses to enter the top 40, 1 address entered sequentially, and 1 address bought in. To be precise, 7 addresses newly entered, but 2 of them are mexc and pancakev3, so I didn't check those. With 7 addresses entering, 7 addresses dropped out. For the 7 that dropped out, I specifically checked and found 3 addresses completely cleared their positions.#BTC consolidates after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in
It went up, so what?
$BTC touched 78800, then fell back to 77000. $ETH hit 2500 briefly, then retreated to around 2400.
The rise is real, but those chasing the price might not feel comfortable.
ETFs are buying. Last week, BTC and ETH combined net inflows reached $2.6 billion, the strongest week since October last year. BTC accounted for $1.9 billion, ETH for $700 million. Short covering is a zero-sum game, but ETF inflows represent real money entering the market. Spot buying is supporting this, which is what makes this rally different from previous ones.
ETH is even stronger. It rose nearly 30% in a week, with short liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion.
At the 2500 level, longs chasing and shorts getting liquidated crossed paths at the same price, eyeing each other.
ETF inflows of $697 million marked the highest single-week since 2026.
But the price still dropped from 2500 to 2400. This shows that some are buying, and some are selling. The buyers are ETFs, the sellers are profit-takers.
The question now is simple: will ETFs keep buying?
The $2.6 billion inflow last week is a fact, but whether this week will see outflows is unknown. After a rapid price surge, consolidation begins, profit-taking at highs is happening, and leveraged positions are accumulating. If the buying support fails, the pullback won’t be slow.
I still hold positions, haven’t exited.
It did go up, but what I really want to know is—whether this $2.6 billion ETF buying this week is a start or an end.
Whoever cracks first will make the first move.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Live trading at @玩的就是实盘 九总
$BTC is stuck in sideways tug-of-war around the 77000 level, ending the previous rapid surge rally. Weekly gains exceeded 23%, with a peak test of the 80000 mark followed by pressure and a pullback. The market has officially entered a phase of bullish and bearish contention after the surge.
Currently, three core market signals determine the current pattern:
1. The short squeeze rally has completely and temporarily ended
Nearly $4 billion worth of short positions have been liquidated, exhausting the passive buying momentum brought by the short squeeze. High-level profit-taking and chip turnover have concentrated, naturally leading the market into a period of consolidation and digestion.
2. U.S. Treasury repo implementation, market rejects reckless liquidity-driven speculation
The scale of long-term debt repos has doubled, but funds remain rational and have not treated this as a new round of QE frenzy. Macro benefits have been priced in advance, no longer generating additional incremental buying.
3. Regulatory expectations provide a bottom line, spot funds still provide support
The CLARITY stablecoin bill continues to bring positive regulatory expectations. This week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $650 million, with institutional allocation funds steadily supporting the market, significantly reducing the possibility of a deep crash. The recent $BTC trend has left many people confused. On August 18th, it was still hovering around 64k, but within a few days, it surged close to 80k, reaching a high near 79.5k. The short-term increase exceeded 20%, and sentiment instantly shifted from bearish to euphoric. Now the price has pulled back to around 76.9k–77.1k, clearly starting to digest this rapid rise. Today, I want to seriously discuss: how did this surge happen? Where are we now? What might happen next? 1. The core driving forces behind this surge 1. Short squeeze + leverage liquidation Many had heavily shorted below 65k, but the market quickly reversed, triggering a chain of short liquidations that further propelled the rise. This kind of short squeeze-driven rally often comes fast and leaves just as fast. 2. ETF funds flowing back Recently, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant net inflows again, with institutional money entering, providing stronger price support. 3. Rapid shift in market sentiment From previous fear to current greed, funds quickly shifted from cautious observation to chasing the rally. This acceleration in sentiment itself amplifies volatility. 2. What about the current technicals? Currently, $BTC has broken out of the previous 62k–65k consolidation range, showing a clear structural strengthening. But some signals to watch: • Short-term RSI has entered extreme overbought territory, indicating pullback pressure is emerging • Volume has increased, but leverage is also clearly rising, increasing volatility risk • Price is challenging the 80k level📝 Today's share $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
Title: "77000 hovered all day, I'm waiting for PCE and Jackson Hole"
Last night, BTC surged to around 79000 before pulling back, currently hovering around 77200. It rose 23% in a week, marking the largest weekly gain in two years. But after the rally, the market is waiting for two events — this week's PCE inflation data and the Jackson Hole symposium, which are the key to determining whether this rebound is a real reversal.
Review of the logic behind the rise:
The U.S. Treasury doubled the size of long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion, causing yields to drop, and risk assets to take off. The SEC is advancing regulatory frameworks, the White House held a crypto summit, and Trump pushed the CLARITY Act. These three factors combined led to short sellers being squeezed out of $2.7 billion, creating a classic short squeeze.
But one detail is worth noting — Bitfinex's report says that during BTC's 10-11% rise, open interest only increased by about 4%. This means the rally was mainly driven by spot buying and short covering, not new leveraged money entering the market. This is important as it suggests the move may not be purely speculative.
Key levels:
· Resistance: 79000-80000, with the 50-day moving average pressing here
· Strong resistance: 81148, breaking above this will accelerate short liquidations
· Support: 76500-77000, intraday defense line
· Strong support: 68000-69000, buyers' cost line over the past 5 months Don’t call this "bottom fishing". *Current Refs:* BTC ≈ $77,000 | ETH ≈ $2,420 This is a high-level pullback after failing to break $80K, not a bottom. *Why:* - Daily RSI: 82-93 = severely overbought - +23% in 5 days = mostly a short squeeze - Short-term holders are now profitable. Selling pressure is rising - ETF inflows hit $600M in a day, led by IBIT - Price is above the 200-day MA. Fees are neutral Mid-term structure is fine. But thin weekend liquidity + everyone bullish easy stop huntsDon’t call this "bottom fishing".
*Current Refs:* BTC ≈ $77,000 | ETH ≈ $2,420
This is a high-level pullback after failing to break $80K, not a bottom.
*Why:*
- Daily RSI: 82-93 = severely overbought
- +23% in 5 days = mostly a short squeeze
- Short-term holders are now profitable. Selling pressure is rising
- ETF inflows hit $600M in a day, led by IBIT
- Price is above the 200-day MA. Fees are neutral
Mid-term structure is fine. But thin weekend liquidity + everyone bullish easy stop hunts1. Top 7 Price Increasing Coins List (OKX Futures) $CHIP/USDT: $0.0323 (+6.95%) – Volume: 15.11 Tr $ $ARX/USDT: $0.1303 (+5.00%) – Volume: 3.56 Tr $ $RE/USDT: $0.521 (+3.96%) – Volume: 31.07 Tr $ $BSB/USDT: $0.1063 (+3.40%) – Volume: 10.05 Tr $ $ROBO/USDT: $0.01405 (+3.08%) – Volume: 11.77 Tr $ $ON/USDT: $74.3 (+2.70%) – Volume: 83.47 N $ SKUU/USDT: $23.73 (+2.06%) – Volume: 537.85 N $ 2. General market context from the Bitcoin Dominance rate image (BTC Dominanc