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Crude oil suddenly surged back above $90
Middle East risks have returned
A few days ago, the market was trading on the temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz route, but the situation changed immediately over the weekend.
The US attacked targets near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran again, escalating US-Iran tensions. Brent crude oil rose more than 3% today, breaking through $90, and WTI also returned to around $85.
This is exactly why I previously thought crude oil shouldn't be viewed as bearish too early.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil transportation. As long as stability is not truly restored here, there will always be a war premium embedded in oil prices.
So the biggest problem with crude oil now is that news can drive prices in one direction one day.
If negotiations advance, prices fall; if military conflict escalates, prices immediately rise again.
After $90 is reclaimed, the Middle East situation must be closely monitored again.
$CL $BTC 8月最后一天，盘面还是那副熟悉的样子：刚把人吓出去，又慢慢往回拉。 今天，$BTC 最低碰到77,000美元，随后拉回78,500附近；$ETH 更夸张，最低下探2,388美元，现在又回到2,470左右。说明下面确实有人接，但也只能说明有人接，离重新走强还差得远。 BTC上方先看79,400，再往上就是大家都盯着的80,000美元。这个位置如果只是插针过去，很可能又是一轮追涨盘挨打；真想让行情舒服一点，至少要在8万上方磨一阵，而不是摸一下就跑。 反过来看，77,000已经成了明天不能随便丢的位置。再砸一次还能收回来，说明买盘没走；如果跌破后长时间回不到78,000，今天这波修复就只能算喘口气。 明晚还有点热闹。 北京时间9月1日22:00，美国JOLTS职位空缺和ISM制造业数据会一起公布。前者看就业需求有没有继续降温，后者看制造业到底是在恢复，还是又开始往回缩。 数据太强，市场会担心美联储继续偏鹰；数据太差，又容易冒出经济放缓的交易。最舒服的结果反而是就业缓一点、制造业别塌，给风险资产留口气。毕竟9月15日至16日就是下一次FOMC会议，这周的数据都会被拿去重新算加息概率。 ETH明With shrinking volume and continued sideways movement, market trading activity keeps declining, and many participants fall into two traps: either over-amplifying long-term technical positives and fantasizing about a rapid rally; or, because of prolonged flat trends, they negate the fundamental value of the project itself. To clearly understand the current market, it is necessary to distinguish between narrative expectations and real valuation support. Bitcoin's valuation partly comes from consensus among digital scarce assets and partly from institutional allocation driving capital premiums. Long-term token holdings remain stable, indicating that the underlying market consensus has not broken down, forming a safe valuation base. However, institutional capital behavior has become more pragmatic, no longer simply paying for narratives and dynamically adjusting positions based on inflation data and interest rate expectations. Various explorations in the second-layer ecosystem are long-term value increments but rarely directly raise short-term valuations. This means Bitcoin's valuation ceiling largely depends on global liquidity conditions, and changes in the macro environment directly cause valuation swings up and down. Ethereum's valuation comes from supply contraction caused by staking and locking, as well as the future potential of infrastructure like Layer 2 networks and account abstraction. Continuously locked staking tokens constrain circulating speculation and provide fundamental support for valuation. But in reality, the ecosystem has not yet seen large-scale user growth; the vast majority of applications still circulate within existing users. Technical infrastructure is continuously improving, but infrastructure improvement does not equal business explosion; realizing valuations requires real user and business growth as support. Before large-scale new demand emerges, Ethereum will find it difficult to detach from the broader market and complete valuationThe script of Bitcoin has never been clear from single-day flows. Last Friday, $201.9 million was withdrawn, ending nine consecutive days of net ETF inflows, and before that, the market had just experienced a round of intensive buying exceeding $3 billion. The real signal between this inflow and outflow is not in the numbers themselves, but in how the market digests the first wave of selling pressure. When short-term profit takers exit, if new funds are willing to take positions at lower prices,8.31 BTC Swing Review📈
The friend's rhythm was very comfortable, successfully capturing a wave of the market
All around 3000+ points
🕹️Operations:
BTC: Open at 77554, close at 78650, 1096 points range
BTC: Open at 77517, close at 78664, 1147 points range
Support confirmation: Strong support at the 77500 level in the morning session, after confirming validity, go long accordingly
Profit-loss ratio priority: Abandon shorting in consolidation, choose long positions at low levels with high profit-loss ratio
Short positions will also come out later
$BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 This week brings JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims and Aug payrolls, making labor data key for September policy pricing. July payrolls fell 23K and May-June were revised down 103K, signaling softer hiring. At Jackson Hole, Walsh said inflation remains above 2%, conditions are not restrictive and policy should prioritize price stability. September hike odds briefly rose from ~35% to nearly 60%, lifting yields and pressuring gold and BTC. The data will define room for his anti-inflation stance.$BTC & $ETH have been unusually quiet lately, with volatility mainly around 8 AM, the U.S. open, and midnight. ⏰
$ETH dropped nearly 3% this morning before bouncing back. 📉📈 I’m still bearish for now—after a 20–30% rally, pullbacks can create opportunities on both sides. 🎯#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults 2026.8.31 Evening Market Analysis Summary
Monday's market continued last week's intense volatility—escalation in the US-Iran conflict once pushed Bitcoin below $77,000, then short covering pulled the price back near $78,000.
**$BTC** is reported near $78,000 today, down about 0.1% in 24 hours, with an intraday range of $77,000-$79,000. Last week saw a rollercoaster from $62,000-$64,000 surging above $81,000, then retreating to $77,000 after hawkish comments from the Fed. Entering Monday, geopolitical conflict became a new disruptive factor—after the US airstrike on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran quickly retaliated, oil prices broke $90, inflation concerns rose again, and Bitcoin briefly decoupled from gold. Currently, the market is tugging near $78,000 with no clear direction.
**$ETH** is reported near $2,450 today, basically flat in 24 hours. The intraday low touched $2,402, showing significantly weaker elasticity than Bitcoin. On-chain data shows whales are concentrating ETH transfers to exchanges—tens of thousands of ETH have been deposited to exchanges in the past two days, signaling short-term selling pressure to watch.
**$SOL** is reported near $103 today, **$XRP** at $1.36, **$DOGE** at $0.0827, **$BNB** at $686, all generally consolidating with lower volume following the broader market.
Regarding ETF data—last week Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $924.5 million, totaling $2.8 billion net inflow over the past two weeks. However, it is notable that last Friday (August 28), Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million, ending a streak of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows. Ethereum ETFs maintained inflows, showing a clear divergence in capital flows.
Liquidation data—about $399 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $276 million, affecting approximately 99,000 traders.
**Monday Summary**: After last week's big swings, Monday was again disrupted by geopolitical conflict. US-Iran clashes, hawkish speeches, and ETF capital shifts—under these triple pressures, holding the market at $78,000 is already difficult. The real highlight is Friday's nonfarm payroll data; until then, watch more and trade less, avoid impulsive trades amid chaotic news.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 BTC BTC breaks below 78,000, ETH ETH falls under 2,400, $SOL SOL tests 100 — the hawkish aftershocks from Walsh have yet to dissipate.
The evening market is still digesting the repricing after last Friday's Jackson Hole. BTC dipped to around 76,900, rebounded in the afternoon but hasn't firmly reclaimed above 78,000; ETH dropped to 2,386 then bounced to 2,450, a short-term correction rather than confirmation; SOL is grinding around the 100 mark, currently near 101, with altcoins generally following risk appetite.
What truly weighs on valuations is interest rate expectations. Walsh's remark that "it's hard to say financial conditions are tight" was interpreted by the market as a Fed framework shift: from "acting only when forced by data" to "assuming tightness by default / not ruling out more hikes," causing rapid repricing of September rate hikes, with the dollar and real yields on U.S. Treasuries continuously pressuring crypto. Coupled with the employment data window, oil geopolitical tensions, and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, risk asset funds are pulling back cautiously.
Technically, BTC around 77,000 is the current sentiment watershed; failure to reclaim 78,000 keeps it weak, with support seen at 76,800/previous lows; whether ETH can hold above 2,500 will determine if the rebound is weak or a genuine recovery; SOL must hold 100 to maintain short-term structure, otherwise look for 95-98. In terms of operations, don't rush to catch falling knives; wait for macro pricing and contract pressure to release fully. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 BTC's relative stability near $78,000 matters more than the quiet headline move. With ETH and SOL lagging over the past day, this looks like selective risk appetite rather than a broad crypto rebound.
I would keep a defensive bias while oil-sensitive US-Iran tensions and labor-market questions remain in focus. A firmer BTC-gold relationship may support the store-of-value case, but durable upside still needs participation to broan#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults $SPCX Evening Rocket Analysis
On the eve of the US stock market, $SPCX surged strongly by $3.62, but the current price has fallen back to hover around 142. The previous positive news triggered a wave of gains, but it now appears that the positive momentum has been exhausted. Data shows that large funds and institutions are taking profits and exiting in large volumes.
The core reasons for this rocket-like rise are threefold:
1. Elon Musk announced the establishment of a gas turbine blade casting factory
2. Previous short covering (short squeeze effect)
3. Negative impact from unlocking has been digested
At this stage, funds from both sides are competing, and a period of consolidation is expected. Sister Yao suggests waiting and watching #BTC high-level consolidation, with increased correlation to gold In the past hour, I filtered out 1 ETH-level signal worth reporting immediately: BitMine, chaired by Tom Lee, has just updated its holdings, with ETH purchased close to 5% of the total supply.
According to BitMine's official disclosure, as of August 30, the company holds 5,901,112 ETH, about 4.9% of Ethereum's total supply. They increased their holdings by 53,501 ETH in the past week, and the company stated that since the launch of the ETH Treasury Strategy, they have been buying ETH weekly for 65 consecutive weeks. Currently, their crypto assets, cash, and other investments total approximately $15.6 billion.
More notably, of the ETH held by BitMine, 5,067,309 ETH have been staked, accounting for about 86% of their ETH holdings. Based on the company's disclosed current yield levels, the expected annualized staking revenue is approximately $335 million. Tom Lee explicitly stated that they have completed 98% of their previously set goal to hold 5% of the total ETH supply.
Why this matters: The market has previously regarded Strategy/Saylor's BTC Treasury as the benchmark for corporate coin hoarding, but now a similar massive capital pool is forming on the Ethereum side as well.MicroStrategy resumes aggressive buying after ten weeks, announcing a king's return with 845,000 BTC holdings
While bears are still calculating when MicroStrategy might be forced to liquidate due to unrealized losses, Michael Saylor shattered all doubts with an extremely hardcore buy order.
MicroStrategy officially disclosed that after a ten-week pause in purchases, the company raised funds through a stock issuance, spending nearly $370 million to acquire another 4,603 bitcoins. This brings MicroStrategy's total bitcoin holdings to an astonishing 845,050 BTC, with a total cost of $63.7 billion, an average holding price fixed at $75,412, and the overall position has once again turned profitable.
Many don't understand Saylor's capital strategy and think he is gambling on the nation's fate. But in the face of mature Wall Street capital tools, Saylor has actually bound the liquidity premium of U.S. stocks with the physical scarcity of bitcoin to the extreme. By continuously issuing premium equity and converting it into on-chain hard assets that never dilute, MicroStrategy is becoming a giant spot black hole that only accumulates and never exits.
When a publicly traded company with a market value of tens of billions of dollars makes draining the bitcoin circulating supply its highest strategic mission, every market pullback-induced panic is just the best opportunity for Saylor to press the issuance and buy button.
Facing MicroStrategy's fierce buying with total holdings approaching 850,000 BTC, do you think Saylor's leverage model will become a perpetual motion machine for the bull market, or does it hide unknown liquidation risks?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. $ZEC The most important thing in this round is not the rise to 800
Rather, Wall Street is finally buying now
ZEC surged from below $600 all the way to nearly $880, then experienced a pullback of about 10%. But I think what truly changed ZEC's valuation logic this round was the official launch of ZCSH.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF has begun trading on NYSE Arca, currently holding up to about 393,000 ZEC, valued at over $260 million.
One of the biggest limitations of privacy coins in the past was that traditional funds found it difficult to participate directly.
Now, this entrance has been opened.
Short-term ZEC will of course continue to be shaken, especially since the open interest in futures once approached $1.8 billion, so leverage is not low.
But as long as this pullback doesn't break the trend, my view hasn't changed.
First, break through 880 again, then look at 1000, but in the end, I still wait for $1100.
$BTC Elon Musk's silence may actually be the strongest proof of his influence.
Once known as the “Godfather of Dogecoin” who could make DOGE surge with a single tweet, his frequency of public statements has clearly decreased. Many interpret this as a retreat or relinquishing of influence. But it seems more like the market environment and his own position have changed: meme coins have become desensitized to simple shout-outs, and frequent statements not only fail to move the market but also risk regulatory scrutiny and manipulation accusations. Silence instead preserves room for maneuver.
The narrative he controls has long shifted from Twitter to more concrete foundations: X payment/financial infrastructure, SpaceX and interstellar narratives, DOGE-related missions/brand partnerships, etc. Dogecoin no longer relies solely on memes and sentiment but is moving toward associations with payments and ecosystem symbolism. Previously, it generated short-term volatility; now it competes on payment gateways, brand recognition, and long-term use cases.
For DOGE holders, the real focus should not be on when Musk will mention it again, but on whether, after moving away from shout-out dependence, on-chain activity, payment usage, community consensus, and liquidity can support the narrative. If the value still mainly depends on personal statements, volatility will be high but the foundation shallow; if it can continue to bind with payments and cultural symbols, then the next phase is possible. In the short term, don’t chase news; in the long term, watch usage and consensus.Looking at the market this weekend, the drop looks quite scary, but the structure hasn't broken yet, so I'm not in a hurry to exit.
$BTC hit a low of 76800 today, just a breath away from the 76000 support level, then bounced back. After losing 78000, it became short-term resistance; the intraday rebounds twice failed to reclaim it, so the bears are still strong. But the 76000 level is not simple—it's supported by the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart plus the dense trading zone from mid-August, so the buying pressure is indeed solid. Holding today shows the support below isn't fragile.
$ETH is softer, repeatedly testing around 2315 but not breaking down, with consecutive lower shadows indicating funds are supporting the lows. The 2300 defense line has been tested for four consecutive trading days but hasn't been taken down.
What surprised me most was the altcoins. Mainstream coin trading volume shrank by nearly 50%, market makers widened spreads, and slippage became ridiculously large. Yet some meme and AI concept coins surged over 30% in a single day, clearly showing funds are abandoning the big players to speculate on the small ones. I've seen this pattern before—existing funds waiting for direction find a temporary casino. But tonight I don't plan to join this hype; my own account is empty, and my friend only kept some ETH with a clearly defined defense line.
On the macro side, oil prices jumped due to US-Iran tensions, which is not good for rate cut expectations. If inflation rises again, the Fed will find it harder to ease in September. This week also has JOLTS and non-farm payrolls, so volatility will definitely be high. My approach remains unchanged: no bottom fishing, no chasing shorts, wait for BTC to either reclaim 78000 with volume or form a stabilization structure above 76000.#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
ETF cooling off, retail investors taking over—BTC's new narrative is being tested
After $BTC broke through 80,000, it is undergoing a critical test.
The ETF inflows, which had been net positive for 9 consecutive days, stopped on August 28. But the price didn't collapse; it is still holding in the 78k-81k range.
Why? Because retail investors have returned—the on-chain activity has risen to a nearly two-year high, small transfers have surged, and retail investors are taking over the baton from institutions.
At the same time, the market's characterization of BTC is quietly changing. Its 90-day correlation with gold has risen above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped to 33%. This data is crucial: capital is treating BTC as "digital gold" for allocation, rather than a highly volatile tech stock.
But controversy also lies here. After the ETF cool-down, retail sentiment comes quickly and fades quickly; whether it can sustain digesting high-level selling pressure is unknown. And whether BTC's linkage with gold represents a long-term asset allocation shift or a short-term risk-off sentiment phase resonance requires more time to verify.
My judgment: Around 80,000 dollars, time is needed to exchange for space. Don't chase the rally; wait for evidence of ETF turning around again or sustained retail enthusiasm. The real main line is not the price, but that BTC's attribute definition is being rewritten—which is far more important than short-term price fluctuations.8月27日与28日之间，加密ETF的资金流向出现了肉眼可见的分化，这种变化比单纯的涨跌更值得留意。数据显示，27日比特币ETF还录得2.356亿美元净流入，以太坊紧随其后，吸金2.258亿美元，Solana与XRP也分别有5610万和1850万美元的稳定进账。然而仅仅过了一天，风向就变了，比特币ETF转为约2.112亿美元的净流出，而同期以太坊、Solana和XRP却依然维持着正向流入的态势。 这种反差很容易让人联想到一个老问题：资金究竟是在逃离比特币，还是在进行更大范围的资产轮动？从数据本身来看，答案更偏向后者。因为如果市场整体看空，其他主流币种很难在比特币回撤时依然保持净流入。更合理的解释是，部分资金正在从比特币的确定性溢价中撤出，转而寻找以太坊生态、Solana生态以及XRP背后的叙事机会。这种选择并非偶然，它往往出现在市场对单一资产依赖度下降、开始对多元化配置兴趣提升的阶段。 值得注意的是，这两天恰好也是市场讨论劳动力数据与比特币黄金相关性升温的窗口。比特币与黄金的关联度被反复提及，说明一部分资金仍然把比特币当作宏观对冲工具，而另一部分资金则在积极测试其他资产的独立行情。这种分The strongest August in 9 years, yet $BTC suddenly goes silent—should the bulls panic?
$BTC surged 25% in August, marking the best August performance since 2017. Historically, August is BTC's worst month with an average return of -7%, but this time it reversed completely.
Now it’s reported at 77,700, stuck just below 80,000, caught in a dilemma. It failed to break 80,000 on Friday and consolidated with low volume over the weekend.
Three danger signals: first, ETF net inflows ended after 9 consecutive days, with an outflow of 201.9 million on August 28; second, the Fed turned hawkish, PCE at 3.7% far exceeds the target, shattering hopes for a rate cut in September; third, US debt surpassed 40 trillion, and the Strait of Hormuz was bombed, causing oil prices to soar.
But monthly momentum remains, with whales increasing positions by 2.75 billion over 60 days and not exiting.
My judgment: 80,000 is the critical line between bulls and bears. Cut losses if it falls below 75,000; go long if it holds above 80,000; otherwise, stay put and wait for direction.
September has historically been worse—don’t mistake August’s luck for strength. #BTC $BTC Capital is beginning to regard BTC again as an independent major asset class, rather than just a high Beta tech stock.
In August, $BTC rose about 24% to $78,000, while the S&P 500 rose about 3%, the Nasdaq about 4.1%, and gold clearly underperformed; more importantly, from August 24–28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $924 million, indicating that this rally was indeed supported by spot capital, not just contract-driven price pumping.
But the short-term is already a bit overheated: global BTC ETPs currently absorb about 4 times the new daily supply, and the market sentiment indicator has reached an extreme greed level of 81; meanwhile, BTC remains stuck below $80,000, and today the ETF even saw a net outflow of about $202 million.
My judgment: the trend has indeed strengthened, but "outperforming gold and the stock market" has already become new narrative fuel. The market is trading institutional capital continuing to migrate from traditional assets to BTC, rather than simply chasing gains. If $80,000 is broken through with volume, this logic will continue to strengthen; if ETF inflows begin to weaken persistently, the 23% gain is more likely to become a target for short-term profit-taking.Bitcoin surged 24% in August
But I will start to be a bit cautious in September
$BTC was very strong this August, breaking through 80,000 from around 60,000, with a monthly increase of about 24%, making it the best performing month this year.
But entering September, I will start to pay more attention to risks.
Now BTC has returned to around 78,500 USD, while BTC balances on exchanges have started to increase. BTC reserves on Binance have risen to about 687,000 coins, the highest this year. ETFs also ended a continuous 9-day net inflow on August 28.
However, overall ETF net inflows last week were still about 924 million USD, so it is not yet time to turn bearish directly.
My judgment is simple:
If it recovers to 80,000, I remain bullish; if funds continuously flow out and it falls below key support, I will reduce my position a bit first.
The first week of September is much more important than simply guessing the rise or fall.
$BTC #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $XAU SHORT SETUP | 1H
The multi-timeframe bias currently favors the short side.
Entry zone: 4,441.92–4,445.57
Stop loss: 4,455.62
Targets: TP1 4,421.07 (1.91R) / TP2 4,401.5 (3.56R) / TP3 4,390.1 (4.52R)
Scale out: 50% / 30% / 20%
Consider risk and manage capital carefully.
Watchlist: Confirmation at the entry zone is required before entry.
$XAU
#GoldVsBTCETFFlows $BABYDOGE's official tweet on August 30th crafted a narrative deliberately defining shareholders of listed companies as "outsiders," claiming that token holders are the true participants in the ecosystem mechanism. This promotional logic seems reasonable at first glance, but compared to the regulatory framework of capital markets, the loopholes are very obvious.
Legitimate listed companies are legally bound to regularly disclose financial reports, cash flows, executive compensation, and grant shareholders voting rights on major matters. Although financial fraud and other violations may occur in the market, this precisely shows that information transparency is a legally mandated baseline, with regulatory and judicial systems as constraints.
In contrast, $BABYDOGE has clear shortcomings in project transparency. According to CertiK security audit results, the contract source code is not publicly disclosed, and the entire fund and contract operation is like a black box. The contract administrator retains the privilege to modify transaction tax rates, posing significant centralized control risks. The project team can unilaterally adjust rules without standardized disclosure requirements.
The charity donation narrative heavily promoted in the tweet also warrants caution. Donation funds come from transaction fees, which are essentially the traders' transaction costs; after cashing out by selling at market highs, the project team allocates a portion for public welfare, making charity more of a marketing packaging tactic. The destination of donation funds lacks third-party independent audits, and the entire fund usage is autonomously controlled by the project team.
Overall, the so-called "advanced participation mechanism" of this project resembles more of a marketing story. Neither rule transparency nor fund supervision meets the standards of compliant listed companies. This is the polished narrative faced with meme coins.$BABYDOGE's official tweet on August 30th crafted a narrative deliberately defining shareholders of listed companies as "outsiders," claiming that token holders are the true participants in the ecosystem mechanism. This promotional logic seems reasonable at first glance, but compared to the capital markets under regulatory frameworks, the loopholes are quite obvious.
Legitimate listed companies are legally bound to regularly disclose financial reports, cash flows, executive compensation, and grant shareholders voting rights on major matters. Although financial fraud and other violations may occur in the market, this precisely shows that information transparency is a legally mandated baseline, with regulatory and judicial systems serving as constraints.
In contrast, $BABYDOGE has clear shortcomings in project transparency. According to CertiK security audit results, the contract source code is not publicly disclosed, and the entire fund and contract operation functions like a black box. The contract administrator retains the privilege to modify transaction tax rates, posing significant centralized control risks. The project team can unilaterally adjust rules without standardized disclosure requirements.
The charity donation narrative heavily promoted in the tweet also warrants caution. Donation funds come from transaction fees, which are essentially the traders' transaction costs; after cashing out by selling at market highs, the project team allocates a portion for public welfare, making charity more of a marketing packaging tactic. The destination of donation funds lacks third-party independent audits, and the entire fund usage is autonomously controlled by the project team. 以前我们说 Solana 是以太坊杀手，现在看来，它更像是全球顶级赌场。
根据 SolanaFloor 的最新报告，上周全网迷因币（Meme）在去中心化交易所（DEX）的交易量里，Solana 竟然丧心病狂地占了 78%！这意味着什么？意味着每 10 个在土狗市场里搏一搏单车变摩托的赌徒，就有将近 8 个是在 Solana 上交的学费。
当以太坊还在纠结 Layer 2 怎么分片、大饼在 $78,000 附近思考人生时，Solana 已经靠着极低的 Gas 费和快到飞起的体验，成了“土狗发射器” Pump.fun 之类平台的乐土。
别管这些迷因币最后是不是归零，只要你想冲土狗，你就得买 $SOL 当路费。这种赌场筹码效应给 $SOL 提供了极强的价格支撑，这也是为什么大盘震荡时，它总能硬得像块铁。
78% 的份额几乎把 Base、以太坊和 TON 的流量吸干了。这种流量垄断会让开发者更倾向于在 Solana 上发币，形成“人多币多钱更多”的暴力循环。
短期来看，只要散户的赌性还在，Solana 的生态活跃度就没法掉下来。即便大盘回调，$SOL 也会$ALLO's rapid surge easily tempts impulsive chasing of the rally. The market keeps climbing, buy orders continuously flood in, and I closely monitor the order book where sell orders pile up layer by layer above, judging that this wave of rally is essentially a bull trap to shake out weak hands.
The price reached 0.25194, with upward momentum clearly weakening, multiple attempts failed to break new highs. The chip peak here forms strong resistance, and a bearish counterattack signal has appeared.
Follow the trend to enter short positions, maintain good defense, and don't mind brief upward spikes during the session, so short-term fluctuations won't disrupt your position rhythm.
The market reverses and falls back to 0.23855, yielding 106.29%. The order book hides the market truth; rather than blindly chasing the rally, it's better to calmly understand the transaction details and lock in the turning point ahead of others. $BTC #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $ETH At first glance, the move looks like a classic "digital gold" reaction as geopolitical tensions rise. But there’s a problem with that narrative: 💰 If investors were truly rushing into safe havens, gold should be attracting similar capital. Instead, Bitcoin is outperforming. That suggests this move may be driven by something bigger than fear: 📈 ETF demand 🏦 Institutional accumulation 💵 Liquidity conditions 🔄 Capital rotating back into crypto Sometimes price tells the story before the headlinThe strongest counterattack in August, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
BTC rose nearly 25% in the month, breaking the 13-year "August curse"; ETH rose over 30%, SOL rose over 40%, and the total market cap increased from 2.25 trillion to 2.7 trillion. This is the strongest August since 2017.
Where did the rise come from? Three things: expectations of US Treasury repo boosting liquidity, ETF net inflows of $1.92 billion in a single week hitting a yearly high, and short squeeze forced by liquidations. Institutions bought spot, leveraged positions were liquidated, pushing the price from 62,000 to 81,000.
But one fact must be recognized: the October 2025 peak at 126,200 is still 37% higher than now. This is a rebound month in a bear market, not a new round of peak charging.
What about September? Seasonally bearish, with 8 out of 13 years from 2013 to 2025 closing lower. Historically, after several "green Augusts," September closed higher with an average pullback of about 6%.
The real focus should be on three variables: liquidity (long bond repo on September 9), policy window (CLARITY Act mid-month disturbance), and key levels (77,000-78,000 defense zone, 83,000 is the 365-day moving average; only a stable break above this can talk about a trend reversal to bullish).
Hold 77,000 and the rebound becomes a trend; break below, and treat it as a bear market rebound. Positioning is more important than prediction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 3.2 billion in real cash poured in, yet $BTC is still falling? The fatal flaw of this rally has been exposed
You might not believe it when I say this — last week, $3.2 billion flooded into the crypto market, hitting a nearly 10-month high, with BTC spot ETFs alone absorbing $924.5 million
And the result? BTC current price is 78,520, up only 0.67% in 24 hours; $ETH, $SOL, and HYPE all pulled back, with 753 coins across the network declining and only 439 rising, while total market cap evaporated 2.49% in a single day
Money clearly came in, so why is the market stagnant?
The answer lies in a data point everyone overlooked: BTC rose 30% in August, but trading volume dropped to the lowest in nearly three years, with average volume on major exchanges shrinking by 70%
What does this mean? The incoming funds are all pinpointed injections from institutional ETFs; no retail inflows, no on-exchange turnover, no follow-the-crowd capital — none of it came
Funds have not fully returned; only a few channels are propping up the market
Sector performance confirms this: modular blockchains rose 5%, DeFAI up 3%, but traditional DeFi fell, AI Agents plunged 3.35%, hotspots are scattered and sparse, with no broad-based profit effect
So don’t be fooled by the phrase "funds pouring in." Institutional buying can only support the bottom and prevent a crash; it cannot sustain a true major uptrend
When will a real turnaround be confirmed? Remember two signals: BTC retaking $80,000, and a clear surge in trading volume. Only when volume and price rise together can a new trend truly begin The Bitcoin market has recently witnessed heavy buying flows, with direct investment funds (ETFs) in the United States attracting nearly $2.5 billion in seven consecutive trading days, before the last cycle saw some outflows. 1. Structural Analysis of Price Movement Supply Absorption Dynamics: The current market driver is not only limited to the influx of new capital to raise the price, but also to the redistribution of ownership of the available supply (Supply Redistribution). The Continuous Transition of Currencies from the Hands of Speculators to Institutional and Long-Term Investors DecreasesHBM is really starting to be snapped up crazily.
The latest disclosure from Korean media shows that the spot price of HBM has reached about 5 times the price of long-term contracts.
The reason behind this is simple: AI giants are frantically locking in supplies, and production capacity can't keep up.
Samsung's large storage capacity has already been locked in advance by long-term agreements, and HBM4 will further squeeze DRAM capacity, causing the entire memory supply to remain tight.
The data has already started to explode: the average export price of Korean DRAM rose 36.6% in two months, while export volume actually dropped 13.2% during the same period.
This storage cycle is no longer just about price increases.
The real problem now is: even with money, you might not be able to get the goods.
$SAMSUNG #Large Inflows into Gold ETFs, How Are Safe-Haven Funds Reallocating?
Gold $XAU ETFs attracted $6.38 billion last week, with safe-haven funds and $BTC going their separate ways.
Just glanced at the market; gold is hovering around 4450, unable to recover since dropping from the 4700 high. When BTC pulled back yesterday, gold also fell, so its safe-haven attribute didn’t play out this time.
On the news front, Citi released a report stating that global physical gold ETFs saw a net inflow of about $6.38 billion last week, the largest single-week inflow in nearly ten months. But Citi also specifically noted that this surge was mainly driven by futures funds, and Asian physical demand hasn’t caught up yet. This indicates institutions are buying, but retail investors haven’t jumped in.
Gold ETFs and BTC spot ETFs have both been attracting money recently, but the logic differs. Gold is more influenced by real interest rates, safe-haven demand, and central bank allocations, while BTC depends more on liquidity, ETF buying, and leverage changes. The market is indeed allocating to both types of non-sovereign assets simultaneously, but the driving factors differ.
Both are non-sovereign assets, but the reasons for funds flowing into gold and into BTC are quite different. Macro sentiment has once again become the market driver, with Bitcoin clearly under pressure over the weekend. At the Jackson Hole meeting, after Wash signaled a hawkish stance, $BTC quickly fell back to around $78,000, forcing short-term bulls to exit. Funding conditions cooled simultaneously, with Bitcoin spot ETFs seeing a net outflow of $201.9 million in a single day, ending the previous nine consecutive days of net inflows, indicating that institutional funds are becoming more sensitive to policy uncertainties.
In contrast, Ethereum's resilience is more noteworthy. $ETH spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for the tenth consecutive trading day, showing that amid macro disturbances, some funds are quietly adjusting their allocation strategies. This divergence is not accidental but rather reflects the market's different phase-based pricing logic for the two asset types: Bitcoin is more aligned with macro liquidity indicators, while Ethereum's capital flows are more supported by ecosystem fundamentals.
Currently, whether $BTC can secure confirmation around $78,000 is a key observation point for the next phase of its movement. If macro pressure persists, price fluctuations remain possible; meanwhile, whether $ETH's continued capital attraction can form a trend also requires time to verify.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, and ETF capital flows do not correspond linearly with price movements. Please assess risks rationally. $BTC $ETH#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 【🔍AI财报第二集开播！英伟达唱完，戴尔博通接着演】
Brothers, the AI drama has entered its second act.
NVIDIA delivered last week, and demand for computing power remains extremely strong, which eased the market. But this week is the real "soul test"—
Dell (September 1) and Broadcom (September 2) are taking the stage.
Why is this important? Because the market is no longer satisfied with the old script of "chip sales booming." Now everyone wants to see:
👉 Can servers keep up?
👉 Can network equipment scale up?
👉 Can enterprise software reliably bring in revenue?
In plain terms: NVIDIA is responsible for making the shovels; now we need to see if the gold diggers are actually making money.
Looking at the market, some have already placed bets—XDELL (Dell concept) rose 1.22%, XAVGO (Broadcom concept) slightly fell 0.76%. The market is saying: Dell might have something, Broadcom, wait and see?
But the most intriguing is the company called "Snowflake" also joining in. Cloud data + AI, this combo sounds like a money burner.
My judgment:
The AI narrative has shifted from "whether it exists" to "whether it makes money." Previously, blindly buying NVIDIA was a guaranteed win; now you have to watch closely who in the industry chain is truly benefiting in cold hard cash.
Don’t think this is just a US stock matter. Those crypto clones riding the AI concept could be led by earnings reports anytime. Computing power coins, data coins, you know what I mean.
$SNDK #core official Twitter fixed the issue!
$CORE brothers, hit follow, don’t get lost!
In this Core DAO reward anomaly incident, the so-called “good things” should be viewed from both the official characterization and the project fundamentals, not just focusing on the “over-distribution of tokens” side:
1. Asset-wise, it’s really a good thing: no theft, no bridge explosion
The official clearly stated it was a “reward distribution logic miscalculation,” not a contract hack, not a cross-chain bridge failure, nor a user custody problem. User wallets, BTC timelocks, and bridged assets are not involved in the reward function, so ordinary token holders, BTC stakers, and users interacting on-chain are safe.
2. The response is a good thing: root cause identified, no pretending
On the day of the incident (8/31), the official released a status update: root cause found, mitigation underway, and a commitment to a post-mortem after the incident. In the crypto space, many projects delete posts and pretend nothing happened when facing on-chain anomalies, but Core at least didn’t cover it up, which is a key step for trust restoration later.
3. The underlying narrative remains intact: BTC security + fixed supply cap still stand
Core’s main focus is Satoshi Plus (BTC hashrate + CORE staking) and the 2.1 billion fixed cap. This incident did not affect consensus, BTC peg, or the 2.1B cap commitment framework. It’s like “the car hit the bumper, but the engine and chassis are fine,” the positioning of BTCFi’s execution layer remains unchanged.
$CORE official is still taking action! $OKB has stabilized above 110 and is still within the August upward channel; the trend hasn't broken. I've decided not to mess around and will continue holding steadily:
1. Macroeconomics is the only top variable. Before the mid-September FOMC, rate hike expectations are suppressing the entire market. OKB follows $BTC's movement but with greater volatility.
2. OKB's liquidity is merely converging, not fleeing. The chip structure is clean, unlike the collapse seen with $NES. $BTC holding near $77.8K while $SOL underperforms signals caution, not capitulation.
Macro risks are keeping traders defensive, while core BTC/ETH positions remain intact.
Until broader risk appetite returns, major-coin strength looks defensive—not the start of a full market rally.
Just my view, not financial advice.
#DailyOrbit Decline of dollar dominance and rise of neutral assets The map of global monetary reserves is undergoing a quiet but steady structural shift, as the dollar's position declines in favor of more neutral and stable assets. 1. Reshaping global reserves Distribution comparison (2008 vs. today): 2008: The US dollar accounted for 64% of the world's total reserves, while gold accounted for only 9%. The current scenario: The share of the dollar has fallen below 50%, while gold has jumped to become the world's largest reserve asset. Central bank moves: This shift is based on a flowMiddle East tensions suddenly escalated in the early hours: US airstrikes on military targets near Iran's Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliates with missiles. As soon as the news broke, the crypto market plunged, with Bitcoin hitting a low of $76,996. Leveraged trading was extremely brutal: in just one hour, $180 million was liquidated across the network, including 173 million in long positions; Over $346 million in 24 hours, with about $73.28 million in BTC and $100 million in ETH. A large number of leveraged users who chased long positions were directly cleaned out by the market. Here's an interesting phenomenon: In the past, during geopolitical conflicts, people treated Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. But this time is different—gold and BTC fell simultaneously, not exiting a safe haven rally. Underlying logic: The core theme of the current market remains the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations. Panic caused by Middle East conflicts has led funds to prioritize selling risk assets, with Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, being prioritized for sale; At the same time, geopolitical tensions will push up oil prices, and the market will worry about a rebound in inflation, further strengthening expectations of Fed rate hikes and suppressing crypto prices. Simply put, this decline is the result of a combination of geopolitical news + leveraged forced liquidation and stampede + macro rate hike expectations. If the conflict is only limited to localized attacks, the market will likely soon return to the Fed's main data theme; But if the situation continues to escalate, it will bring a new round of volatility risks. Two key things to watch going forward: 1. Will the US-Iran conflict escalate further; 2. Key economic data such as September nonfarm payrolls and CPI remain the core drivers of the mid-term market outlook. August 3$BTC BTC fell below 78,000, $ETH ETH lost 2,400, $SOL SOL tested 100 — the hawkish aftershocks of Walsh have not yet dissipated
Good evening, brothers, the Monday market is still digesting last week's shocks.
BTC hit a low of 76,916 today. Although it rebounded in the afternoon, it was still struggling around 77,800-78,000 at the time of writing. ETH touched a low of 2,386, then rebounded to around 2,450 in the afternoon. SOL repeatedly tested the $100 integer level and is currently trading in the 101-102 range.
Walsh's remarks have not yet been fully digested by the market.
Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, completely overturning market expectations for the policy path. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% before the speech to 60%. The core message was one sentence — Walsh said, "It is difficult to describe the current broad financial conditions as tight." Former Fed Vice Chair Kohn interpreted this as: this is no longer a Fed that hikes rates "only if data proves necessary," but a Fed that defaults to further hikes "unless data argues otherwise." This reversal in logic is more unsettling to the market than the rate hike itself.
The US and Iran are at it again.
Early today, the US Central Command confirmed an airstrike on rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil responded with a rise of over 2% above $90. BTC briefly fell below 77,000 after the news, with over $200 million in long positions liquidated within an hour. The geopolitical conflict is pushing oil prices up → inflation expectations rebound → rate hike probability rises further; this chain is still unfolding.
Today's data:
About $399 million in liquidations across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with $276 million in long liquidations and $123 million in short liquidations. BTC long liquidations totaled $53.91 million, ETH long liquidations $73.34 million. Over 100,000 people were liquidated globally. Bulls are still bleeding. Regarding ETFs, the record of nine consecutive days of net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs ended on August 28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.9 million. However, the cumulative inflow for August remains as high as $3.03 billion, indicating strong institutional demand for the month overall.
What’s the outlook now?
BTC is oscillating between 76,900 and 78,600. Although there was a technical rebound in the afternoon, it is a recovery after a big drop. The upper Bollinger band forms strong resistance, so chasing the rebound blindly is not advisable. ETH rebounded from the low of 2,386 to around 2,450, and SOL repeatedly tested the $100 level. $100 is a key psychological support for SOL; if broken, it may retest the 95-97 range.
Trading strategy:
No adding positions, no cutting losses, no bottom guessing. Wait until BTC returns above 78,500 before making moves. The US-Iran conflict is still brewing, liquidity is thin over the weekend, and volatility can be amplified, so control your position size.
Brothers, did you get swept out this round? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Just speaking in terms of market language, today is a day suitable for being long gold and short oil.
Both of these targets are long-term strong macro assets.
If you don't want to or don't have the energy to study so much,
in fact, you only need to use two price ranges for swing trading.
WTI oil price will fluctuate between 70-90, buy low and sell high.
Gold started from 4000 and is currently in the first wave of pullback; around 4400 is a good entry point to go long, with the target to return to the 5,000 range.
The main theme of this week's market is the large and small non-farm payroll data.
Today, the US stock market is recovering from the drop caused by the hawkish remarks of Wosh last Friday, and will likely continue to recover until around Wednesday. Then, the large and small non-farm payroll data will continue to raise/solidify the expectation of a rate hike in September, and the market will continue to decline after pricing in the new data. $CL $XAUT #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The data just disclosed by Caixin is quite interesting: in the BTC options market, call options with strike prices between $80,000 and $100,000 have a notional open interest value already piling up to tens of billions of dollars.
This doesn't mean BTC will definitely reach $100,000, but at least it shows that there is capital betting in advance on the Q4 market, same for Ethereum!
What’s really worth watching behind this is the US Treasury risk. Fiscal deficits, debt, and yield pressures continue to rise, and funds are instead starting to treat BTC as a kind of "US Treasury hedge."
Even scarier is that there was just a roughly $100 million ETH long position with 10x leverage, liquidation price at $2241. This scale definitely doesn’t look like an ordinary retail investor. Plus, recently the ETF capital for Ethereum has surpassed that of Bitcoin, so positioning in Ethereum is also a wise choice!
So I’m still bullish, but I don’t think it will directly surge to $100,000 in September. In the short term, watch the non-farm payrolls; for the real big move, I’m more inclined to the latter half of Q4.
I still dare to bet on BTC hitting $100,000. $BTC $ETH As of tonight, $BTC is around $77,900, down about 1.2% in 24 hours; $ETH is around $2,446, down 1.2%; $SOL is around $102.5, down over 4%, clearly the most seriously hit among the three brothers today.
Macro continues to play the lead role: the US-Iran situation heating up pushed Brent crude oil to $90, while Warsh's hawkish remarks raised the market's probability of a September rate hike to about 58%. One is responsible for pushing inflation, the other for pushing interest rates, with risk assets caught in the middle, somewhat like "both guardians going to work together."
However, the funding side has not fully retreated. On the latest complete trading day of August 28, $BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $201.9 million, ending a 9-day inflow streak; but $ETH ETF still had a net inflow of $102.1 million, and $SOL ETF inflow was about $18.08 million. Institutions seem more like they are reallocating rather than collectively fleeing.
In derivatives, there were about $431 million liquidations in 24 hours, including about $130 million for $ETH and about $100 million for $BTC; but the total open interest in the market remains near $136 billion, and new leverage is not crazy, indicating the current phase is more of a high-level oscillation and shakeout rather than a systemic stampede.
In the short term, $BTC needs to hold key support at 76K–77K, and only reclaiming 79K–80K counts as bulls retaking the wheel; $ETH looks at 2400/2500, and $SOL must first hold 100–102. Just now, Coinbase and Webull reached a crypto infrastructure cooperation agreement to expand services into the Canadian market.
This cooperation seems ordinary, but the signal is very strong. Webull is the second largest retail broker in the US with over 30 million users and had barely touched crypto before. Now partnering with Coinbase means traditional brokers are starting to fully embrace crypto.
The Canadian market is even more interesting. Canada was the first country in the world to approve a BTC ETF, and its regulatory stance is much clearer than the US. Coinbase choosing Canada as a key expansion focus basically means "US regulation is too slow, I'll go make money in Canada first."
But I think there is another layer behind this: cooperation between retail brokers and crypto exchanges will become the next trend. Robinhood has already proven how big retail demand for crypto is, and Webull partnering with Coinbase is copying Robinhood's playbook. When Charles Schwab and Fidelity follow suit, crypto will truly become mainstream.
The speed at which traditional brokers embrace crypto is faster than we imagined.
Who do you think will be the next broker to partner with Coinbase? I bet on Charles Schwab.
$COIN #Coinbase #cryptocurrency$TAO TAO 236.6 short, marked 226.1, 50x short, +221.89%.
Spot market slightly pulled back, 50x leverage amplifies profits.
Trading relies on following the trend rhythm, not blindly betting on coins.
⚠️ Ultra-high leverage has extremely low tolerance for errors; when a rebound comes, floating profits quickly shrink, so avoid heavy positions.
Strictly follow the trading plan, don’t let paper profits control your emotions. $BTC $ETH BTC just rebounded to 79,000 a few days ago, but a wave of negative news immediately wiped out all the gains.
At the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed's Waller took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a September rate hike soaring directly from 35% to 57-60%. The PCE inflation year-on-year is 3.7%, having been above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Waller stated that if inflation can't be brought down, rate hikes will continue.
Upcoming data is coming in thick and fast: Tuesday manufacturing prices, Thursday service prices, and Friday's August non-farm payrolls. As long as inflation-related data is high, rate hike expectations will continue to heat up.
The logic has changed now. Previously, weak employment would lower rate hike expectations, but now inflation is the primary consideration. As long as employment doesn't collapse significantly, rate hikes are unstoppable. Additionally, the tense US-Iran situation is pushing oil prices higher, putting collective pressure on risk assets.
BTC is oscillating repeatedly between 77,000-78,000, ETH is hovering around 2,430, and SOL is leading the declines.
If BTC can't hold the 76,000-77,000 support, the downside will look toward 73,000-75,000. ETH's critical lifeline is at 2,400 $ETH $BTC $SOL OKX ranks 15th, so why do I put him first?
If you only look at the OKX profit leaderboard, Dumb Dumb Ball ranks 15th today.
But among the 100 publicly tracked Lead Traders I continuously follow, he is ATS official leaderboard No. 1: 85.93 points, FORMAL / HIGH.
The reason is not "highest earnings":
• 90-day cumulative return: +37.29%
• 90-day maximum drawdown: 6.08% (90 valid observations)
• Public lead days: 1064 days
• Public follower profit and loss: +536.93 USDT
For the same profit, the smaller the drawdown, the longer the duration, and the more consistent the follower data, the higher the research value.
This is not a copy-trading recommendation, nor does it represent future performance. What I want to study more is who puts both profit and risk on the same report card.
Data as of: 2026-08-31 20:03 (UTC+8)
Based solely on OKX public data, for research purposes only, not investment advice.On the chessboard, the priceless thing has never been the 1.6 billion that was captured, but the look in the opponent's eyes—the relief of "I finally don't have to be checkmated." Meta's move is like a standard midgame sacrifice: White trades one rook for two black pawns, temporarily easing the threat in front of the king's castle—the market immediately applauds this move. But in the grandmaster's pupils, what is recorded is not the exchange value, but the passed pawns on the board that have yet to be revealed.
On the surface, White's move doesn't seem like a loss. A payment cap of 16.68 billion, but the book valuation is marked at 18 billion, with only a 1 billion loss recorded in Q3, and not as a one-time cash outflow. Payments span multiple years, some with attached conditions. This is like simplifying the midgame position voluntarily, converting a chaotic attack into a calculable endgame, pushing the risk of checkmate to the bottom of the box. Thus, the risk premium contracts, and the stock price rises. The market's message is: tail risk is contained, the game can continue.
But a true grandmaster will remind you that the first rule of a sacrificial attack is—before giving up material, you must calculate the attack line twenty moves ahead. If you only remove one threat from your opponent but gain a permanent structural weakness in the endgame, this move is not an "exchange" but a "gift." Meta's current 1 billion loss looks like a "proactive draw offer," but it's more like castling: you hide your king in the corner, but the king in the corner can still be pierced by a rook from the open file along the back rank.
I see on the board that Black still has thousands of pawns not yet deployed. Those thousands of unresolved cases are the passed pawns on the back rank, each step advancing toward promotion; the decline in user time caused by youth usage restrictions is like a slow open file—today you don't see the rook, but twenty moves later, Black's rook will enter White's secondary back rank along this line. At that time, what will you use to block? The rook already exchanged, or the pawn structure that has been written down as a loss?
What is more intriguing is that the market has re-priced "potentially huge future payouts" as "controlled multi-year amortization," effectively declaring the midgame over and voluntarily entering the endgame. But the endgame is never about who makes fewer mistakes, but who can see through more variations. When you "simplify the position" to catch your breath, you also give up the counterattack possibilities in the complex position. The disappearance of low-priced options does not equal an advantage; it means you have lost the capital to sacrifice material for maneuvering. If unfavorable moves appear again in the future, you will have no pieces left to sacrifice.
The sound of coins dropping on the board is not a single slam, but like a chess clock ticking one tick at a time. The 1 billion loss in Q3 is only the first trigger of the timer; the following ticks will be long. True players never look at the green light called "risk premium"; they only watch the fingers yet to fall—the chain moves of state regulations, the forced responses to parental lawsuits, and the quietly changing user habits. They will force you to make moves you have not yet calculated at countless crossroads.
I don't look at the exchange value of this move; I only look at the chess clocks on the board that have yet to fall—they are still ticking. #metasettlementrepricingTo be honest, I personally believe Nvidia $NVDA is still a long-term bullish bet.
There are three bullish cards: revenue of $96.2 billion, up 117% year-over-year; net profit of $59.6 billion, net margin 62%; next quarter guidance of $108 billion, Wall Street's average target price is $323, which still has 49% upside from the current price. Technically, EMA5=219.20 is above EMA10=218.86, so the mid-term trend remains intact.
But the bears also have chips: gross margin slipped from 75% to 74%, possibly down to 71% next quarter; operating cash flow of $24.1 billion is far below net profit; accounts receivable soared to $63 billion; "The Big Short" Burry extended his short position to 2027, and short reports keep coming. After earnings, the stock first rose 8.7% then dropped 4.57% the next day, a typical "good news already priced in" scenario.
My suggestion: go long with a light position, set stop loss at 216.8 (previous day's low). The reason is simple—AI computing power shortage will last at least until fiscal 2028, fundamentals have not reversed. But the current price is stuck at the Bollinger middle band; add more only after breaking 220, cut losses if it falls below 216.8. The bias is bullish, but position must be light because although the long-short ratio favors bulls, real-time sell orders are more aggressive, signaling an imminent turning point.
Capital preservation is more important than direction; wait for the market to make the first move. $NVDA Altcoin Price Change Rankings on August 31
Gainers
1st: SKR 98%
2nd: HEMI 44%
3rd: ZORA 34%
Losers
1st: BTR -39%
2nd: MAGMA -36%
3rd: HNT -21%
SKR surged 98% today and is not far from its all-time high of 0.053, only one fold away. The nature of altcoins is that if they can break through, they will break their all-time highs. However, during the breakout process, there will be repeated spikes.
BTR plunged more than 50% from its highest point. The key is to watch tomorrow's market to see if it will completely collapse. If it does not completely collapse, it may just be a downward spike for shakeout.
Altcoins fluctuate wildly amid the overall market pullback, putting on a show. Once the market returns to an uptrend, they will be mercilessly abandoned.
$ZORA #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验