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$BTC and $ETH: The real test begins now
In my view, the most important signal is not $BTC reaching 79K—but whether the market can sustain higher levels after the short-term squeeze subsides.
Spot $BTC ETF recorded about $1.6 billion in weekly inflows, including $606 million on Thursday, indicating institutional demand has returned.
$ETH remains around 2.4K. If $BTC stabilizes above 77K and $ETH holds 2.4K during leverage normalization, I would consider this a healthier trend reset—not just a rebound driven by liquidations. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC $ETH
$ENA ENA/USDT Trend Analysis and Reasons for the Surge
1. Technical Trend Analysis
📊 Current Status: Vertical surge after bottom breakout
ENA experienced a prolonged bottom consolidation for over 3 months (from early May to mid-August, price fluctuated between 0.07–0.10), and around August 18 began a volume breakout, leading to an almost vertical surge.
🔑 Key Price Levels
Type Price Description
Intraday Resistance 0.17091 Current 24h high, breakout targets 0.1831
Strong Resistance 0.1831 Next technical target
First Support 0.1465–0.15 Previous high area after breakout, key defense line on pullback
Second Support 0.1343 If broken, may accelerate correction
Strong Support 0.1099–0.10 Original upper boundary of bottom box, break signals weakening trend
2. Core Reasons for the Surge
This round of ENA's surge is not simply following the market but driven by significant independent project catalysts:
1. 🏦 FalconX $1 Billion Institutional Credit Line (Most Direct Catalyst)
On August 21, Ethena announced a $1 billion secured warehouse credit facility with top institutional trader FalconX. This arrangement uses assets supporting USDe for over-collateralized institutional credit operations, with FalconX initiating and servicing loans, and Ethena holding first priority security interest on assets. This marks Ethena's formal institutional upgrade in capital operations, opening new revenue streams beyond crypto basis trading.
2. 🗣️ Arthur Hayes Public Endorsement
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes tweeted on August 21, "ENA 5 bagger is just too easy," posting a chart targeting about 0.50. On-chain data shows he purchased approximately 22.64 million ENA in early August.
3. 🤝 Coinbase Strategic Partnership and Accumulation
Coinbase Ventures purchased ENA tokens on the open market (no VC discount, no lock-up) and partnered with Ethena to bring on-chain finance and savings products to Coinbase's 100M+ users. This is Coinbase Ventures' first investment in Ethena, sending a strong signal to institutional allocators.
4. 💰 Fee Switch Activation Expectation
In Q1 2026, Ethena's Fee Switch will meet activation conditions (USDe supply over 6 billion + annual revenue over $250 million). Once governance votes pass, 10%–20% of protocol revenue will be directly distributed to sENA stakers. Based on current revenue, staking yields could reach 4.5%–15% annually, transforming ENA from a pure governance token into an income-generating asset.
5. 📈 USDe Fundamental Support
Ethena's synthetic USD, USDe, is one of the fastest-growing stablecoins in DeFi, with cumulative protocol revenue exceeding $500 million and $230.8 million revenue in 2025, ranking among the highest revenue protocols in DeFi. USDe generates yield through delta-neutral strategies (spot + perpetual contract hedging), independent of traditional banking, offering a unique narrative in the current macro environment.
3. Comprehensive Assessment and Risk Warning
✅ Bullish Logic
- Institutional Milestone: $1 billion FalconX credit line is a key step for Ethena from "DeFi experiment" to "institutional-grade financial infrastructure."
- Value Capture Mechanism Implementation: Fee Switch links protocol revenue directly to token holders, resolving the "strong USDe, weak ENA" disconnect.
- Solid Bottom Structure: 3 months of bottom consolidation fully washed out weak hands; post-breakout, fewer trapped holders above, healthy chip distribution.
⚠️ Risk Warnings
Severe Overbought KDJ-J at 114, 4h RSI at 94, short-term 10%–20% technical correction possible anytime
Token Unlock Pressure Total ENA supply 15 billion, circulating about 9.56 billion, with ~36% (about 4.4 billion) still to unlock/vest, long-term selling pressure significant
Profit Taking After Catalyst Price rose over 100% from August 18 low of 0.082, large floating profits, any disturbance may trigger a sell-off
High Narrative Dependence Current price largely driven by Arthur Hayes endorsement and FalconX positive sentiment; without sustained capital inflow, prone to sharp pullback
Market Correlation Risk Though this is an independent rally, a deep BTC correction would likely impact ENA negatively
🎯 Strategy Reference
- Current Holders: Consider partial profit-taking in 0.17–0.18 range, keep a base position to observe if 0.1831 breaks; set trailing stop loss below 0.1465.
- New Entrants: High risk chasing current price; recommend waiting for pullback to 0.1343–0.1465 support zone or KDJ-J dropping below 80 before buying low.
- Futures Traders: Watch perpetual contract funding rates; after surge, long position costs may be very high; shorting in overbought zone requires strict stop loss, counter-trend trades are risky.
> 📌 Summary: The surge results from a fourfold resonance of "Institutional Catalyst (FalconX $1B credit) + KOL Endorsement (Arthur Hayes) + Fundamental Improvement (Fee Switch/USDe growth) + Technical Bottom Breakout." Short-term momentum remains strong, but multiple indicators are in extreme overbought zones; chasing upside risk outweighs opportunity. A healthy choice is to wait for a correction to digest profits.ETF inflow optimism is not translating into broad risk appetite yet. BTC is at $76,539.4 while ETH remains below the closely watched $2,500 level, and SOL is the weakest of the three over 24 hours. That combination points to selective demand, not a market-wide bid.
My base case is continued consolidation with a defensive tilt. BTC can absorb flows better than higher-beta assets, but a durable risk-on turn needs ETH and SOL to stop lagging, not merely another supportive headline.
Just my read, not advice.$HYPE Stop chasing! The main players are distributing, have you noticed these signals?
High-level oscillation is not accumulation, it's unloading.
Don't be fooled by the red and green on the chart, here's the bottom line for today——
The rapid rally is already a spent force.
Four reasons, each deadly 👇
① CFTC regulation? Everyone has been shouting "US funds are coming" for months without resolution, but the reality is: the CFTC's regulatory progress from substantive implementation to truly opening the door for US institutional funds is a slow variable measured in months. Expectations are maxed out, fulfillment is far off—this is the biggest expectation gap.
② The technicals have already warned: price hit the upper band at $82.25 then directly fell back, MACD death cross has formed. More importantly, huge sell orders appeared around $75, not from retail investors but the main players intensively distributing around the $78 level. What you see as a "pullback," the main players see as a "distribution window."
③ On-chain data doesn't lie: whales directly sold about $77.38 million at the $75 price level. Meanwhile, a large amount of tokens were transferred to exchange addresses—transfers to exchange = a signal preparing to dump. When the big fish are running, are you catching the falling knife?
④ 75% of tokens are still locked, a Damocles sword hanging overhead. Currently, circulating supply accounts for only about 25% of the total, with the remaining 75% waiting to be unlocked and released. This means every future unlock event is a potential selling pressure bomb. The price you buy at now is a gamble against a future flood of unlocked chips. $HYPE ETF inflows last week:
BTC was $1.92 billion,
ETH was $700 million.
Currently, ETH's total market cap is 18.8% of BTC's,
while ETF inflows are 36.4% of BTC's.
The inflows are double the total market cap,
which explains why ETH's largest gain this round is 35.9%,
greater than BTC's largest gain of 26.6%.
To emphasize again,
Trump is strongly embracing blockchain,
and after the "Clear Act" passes,
U.S. financial assets (USD, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, etc.)
will be massively put on-chain, tokenized, and smart contracted,
which will bring tremendous global financial freedom.
If you are someone in the U.S. financial sector,
and you see RWA assets massively going on-chain,
wouldn't you want to learn what this "chain" is?
Wouldn't you want to invest in this "chain"? : ) The weekend market shows a subtle sense of disorder. Prices repeatedly fluctuate within a narrow range, with both bulls and bears feeling their way in a pitch-dark room—direction unclear, but underlying currents persist. $BTC is currently hovering around $76,900, and a 2.11% drop in Bitcoin's volatility context can only be considered a mild breathing adjustment. What truly deserves attention is $ETH's movement—it has directly broken through the lower band, sliding down to $2,407. This severe internal divergence is far more concerning than the market's overall calm. On the macro level, the market is approaching a critical juncture: the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 27, and Powell's public remarks. This is seen by the market as a "top-level narrative catalyst" in the near term. However, historical experience reminds us that his silence in the previous round triggered long-term bond yields to surge to a 20-year high. If this time again lacks substantive signals, the valuation anchor for risk assets—including Bitcoin—may face a pressure test toward the $75,000 area. Technically, $SOL is currently running close to the BOLL lower band, with $93.44 near the lower band at $92.25, and RSI around 39, showing clear weakness. However, there is historically accumulated buying density at $87, and as long as this level is not effectively broken, the downside space should not be overly imagined. BTC shows a three-track convergence state, with intraday volatility narrowing to the $600 level. This low volatility environment is unfriendly to leveraged traders, with consumption far outweighing opportunity. Another intriguing clue comes from$TRUMP 日内大涨 24.2%，$PUMP 同步走高 23.2%，而 $BTC 报 76,989 美元，下跌 1.83%；$ETH 报 2,418 美元，跌幅达 4.31%，明显跑输大盘。风险偏好并未彻底熄火，但反弹当日就出现反转，断言趋势反转仍为时过早。今天谁先暴露疲态，谁就将主导短线方向。 美股方面，$QQQ 微涨 0.35%，$SPY 上涨 0.41%，$IBIT 则强势上扬 6.02%。与此同时，$DXY 持平，$GLD 上涨 1.95%。美债收益率与美联储政策预期仍在压制估值，$QQQ 和 $SPY 不敢贸然拉升；美元指数并非静止平台，一旦波动加剧，将直接冲击 $BTC 的风险偏好。 AI 与半导体板块依旧是美股情绪的核心开关，$QQQ 的态度值得密切跟踪。局部市场热度犹存：$ZEC 上涨 8.5%，$HYPE 反弹 3.5%；而 $XRP 跌 0.4%、$SOL 跌 0.6%，并未跟随 $BTC 同步下挫，说明资金并未全面撤退。 $BTC 的抗跌性明显强于 $ETH，后者资金抱团更紧，山寨币此时不宜急于抄底。值得警惕的是，$IBIT 涨 6.02% 而 $BTC 跌 1What did retail investors miss as ETH went from 1872 to 2549?
One week, 28.6%.
━━━ Why did ETH rise this time ━━━
It's not because ETH itself has anything new.
It's because BTC rose first, driving the whole market sentiment. Institutions not only bought BTC, they also increased their ETH positions.
Ethereum spot ETF net inflow reached $697.2 million in one week — the largest single-day net inflow record since 2026.
Dual-line operation. BTC rises, ETH follows. This is allocation logic, not speculation.
━━━ Three mistakes of retail investors ━━━
First, waiting for a pullback down to 1700. When BTC was at 62k, ETH was at 1800. That was a buying point, not a wait-and-see point.
Second, thinking it was too high to buy at 2200. Result: 2549. After a 20% rise, they thought it was expensive; after another 20% rise, they regretted it even more.
Third, now with a pullback to 2400, they start asking "Will it fall further?" This is the wrong question. The right question should be: If it rises to 3000, where will I be?
━━━ How to view ETH now ━━━
Currently around 2400 is an observation zone, not a charging zone.
No position: wait for the 2300-2350 range, stop loss at 2150.
Holding position: hold on, stop loss below 2250.
Institutions have already entered. The biggest risk for retail investors is not buying at a high price, but not getting on board at all.
$ETH #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 The big coin and the second coin seem to have changed their style.
The big coin #BTC has returned to the comfortable range of 77K-79K, and the second coin #ETH is even stronger, with institutions lining up to enter the market again, almost touching 2500.
Last week, the combined ETF inflow for the big coin $BTC and the second coin $ETH reached 2.6 billion USD. What does this number mean?
It's the strongest since last October; this time institutions are really putting money in, not just talking.
But don't just watch the excitement; a lot of "fuel" for this rally also came from short liquidations.
Liquidations are like fireworks, while ETF inflows are the firewood; fireworks burn out quickly, but firewood keeps the fire going.
Next, focus on three things: whether ETF money is still coming in, whether contract open interest is decreasing, and what the funding rate level is.
If those leveraged gamblers calm down and the big coin and second coin remain stable, then this rally has real strength and is not just a bluff.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 ZEC hits a new all-time high on the platform: How does the privacy sector go from being shunned by everyone to being fiercely contested by institutions, leading to a revaluation?
The veteran privacy benchmark, ZEC, recently reached a new all-time high on the platform. The momentum was ignited by Grayscale advancing its spot ETF application, the completion of the Ironwood upgrade, and mining expansion.
The core logic behind this surge is the awakening of institutional demand for commercial financial privacy. In a fully transparent public chain system, large institutional funds and trading strategies are like being exposed naked; commercial privacy has never been a gray-area demand but an absolute necessity to protect key assets.
The real catalyst for the market rally lies in breaking through compliance barriers. Grayscale’s push for a spot ETF is expected to open the compliance door for traditional trillion-dollar entrusted funds. In the privacy sector, ZEC’s moat lies in its unique architecture: it uses optional privacy and supports Viewing Key audit keys, allowing holders to protect commercial privacy while proactively providing audit proofs to regulators, achieving a balance between privacy and compliance. This makes it almost the only compliant breakthrough for institutions in the privacy sector.
However, in the short term, fluctuations remain due to the concentration of computing power and the ETF approval battle. The core focus on privacy assets is understanding their long-term viability as digital financial defense tools.
After ZEC reached a new high, do you think the privacy sector will become the next mainstream narrative? Would you consider allocating ZEC?
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 $ETH rose 29% in a week before dropping 5%, but ETF inflows hit $697 million, a new high since last October, with exchange-held ETH down 15%.
ETF funds are pouring in wildly. ETH ETF net inflows last week reached $697 million, the highest since last October. On 8/19 inflows were $189 million, 8/20 $221 million, and 8/21 $185 million, marking three consecutive days of heavy buying. BlackRock's ETHA absorbed most of the demand. More crucial data: ETH's market cap is only 18.8% of BTC's, but ETF inflows account for 36.4% of BTC's, with the inflow-to-market cap ratio twice that of BTC. This explains why ETH outperformed BTC this week.
Exchange-held ETH is declining. On-chain data shows exchange ETH holdings dropped from 7.7M at the beginning of June to 6.54M, a 15% decrease. Meanwhile, over 42M ETH (33.7% of supply) is locked in staking. Circulating supply is shrinking while buying demand is increasing, a supply-demand structure that directly supports the price.
However, there is short-term pressure for a pullback. In the last 24 hours, liquidations across the network totaled $1.238 billion, with ETH accounting for $264.92 million, the hardest hit. Futures open interest is still high at $31.81 billion, indicating leverage has not been fully cleared. ETH fell from a high of $2,546 to $2,426 this week, a 4% retracement which is not deep, but if BTC continues to fall, ETH's leverage liquidation could be more severe.
ETH's mid-term structure is stronger than BTC's, with ETF inflow-to-market cap ratio twice that of BTC, exchange supply shrinking, and staking lockups increasing Can BTC hit a new all-time high again this year? (August 23)
The US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.9178 billion this week, marking the highest single-week inflow since the "1011 flash crash"; the ETH spot ETF had a weekly net inflow of $692.6 million, with five consecutive days of net inflows, indicating institutional funds are indeed returning to the market.
From the conditions, it is possible for BTC to set a new all-time high this year, but it is not a certainty, as there are two major constraints.
1.✅ Favorable conditions
Large weekly inflows into ETFs represent compliant institutions allocating funds; long-term on-chain holdings are stable with no collective liquidation by whales; the market has completed a round of short squeeze, risk appetite has opened up, and fundamentals and capital flows provide support.
2.⚠️ Realistic obstacles
The daily chart is currently severely overbought, so a short-term technical pullback is needed; capital inflows are intermittent and have not formed a steady daily net inflow; any macroeconomic data disturbance or negative regulatory news could quickly turn ETF inflows into outflows. Additionally, a large amount of leveraged contracts are stacked at high levels, so oscillations and washouts will repeatedly occur.
Key observation signals:
If BTC holds strong support at 72000 and ETF inflows remain steady, the probability of a new high will significantly increase;
If it breaks below 72000 effectively and ETF funds quickly flow out, then it is highly likely that this year will maintain a large range of oscillation, and the new high will be delayed.
Do not equate a single week of explosive ETF inflows directly with an inevitable new high; weekly data is a strong positive factor but should not be the sole basis for judgment.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice#BTC fluctuates after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in
Recently, there has been a significant change in the flow of funds into crypto market ETFs.
$BTC spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.61 billion over four trading days, with a single-day inflow of $606 million on August 20, marking the strongest daily performance since May. $ETH spot ETFs also strengthened simultaneously, recording a net inflow of about $185 million on August 21, maintaining fund inflows for five consecutive trading days.
From the perspective of fund attributes, the ETF channel mainly carries institutional allocation demand. Unlike retail trading behavior, ETF fund inflows are usually based on asset allocation models and risk control frameworks, reflecting a reassessment of the crypto asset class at the institutional level. The synchronized volume increase and highly consistent rhythm of BTC and ETH indicate that funds may be making systematic allocation adjustments across the entire crypto asset class.
However, it is important to view this objectively: ETF inflows are an important indicator for observing institutional movements but are not sufficient conditions for judging market trends.
First, BTC spot ETFs have still been in a net outflow state for the year 2026 so far; whether this short-term inflow can reverse the annual trend requires more data verification. Second, the recent market has seen large-scale short liquidations, and passive buying in derivatives has a certain amplifying effect on prices, so it is necessary to distinguish between ETF spot buying and the different driving forces caused by derivatives squeezes. Third, the sustainability of fund inflows is key—if continuity and scale can be maintained over the next few weeks, the possibility of institutional medium- to long-term accumulation is higher; if inflows quickly decline or turn into net outflows, the trend reversal point has not yet been confirmed.
Current data shows that institutions are reassessing the allocation value of crypto assets. Whether this trend can evolve into a broader capital rotation still requires further data verification.
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
#Nvidia AI servers may increase prices by over 15% Is the crypto market about to start liquidating long positions? (August 23)
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $882 million, with long position liquidations accounting for $753 million, over 80%. High-leverage longs have been heavily liquidated, but a full systemic liquidation of longs has not yet begun.
On the contract side, there has been a sustained positive funding rate, indicating crowded longs. The recent pullback first eliminated short-term leverage above 5-10x; the liquidation map shows a large cluster of long liquidations below $BTC74800. Only a confirmed break below this level will trigger a chain liquidation of longs.
Spot markets are supported by large weekly net inflows from ETFs, though there was a short-term redemption after the rally. Institutional long-term holdings have not fled on a large scale, and on-chain whales are only partially taking profits, with no collective dumping signals.
Market divergence is clear: altcoins and MEME high-leverage longs suffered heavy losses; $BTC and ETH spot holdings remain supported. This phase is a high-leverage cleanup, not a trend reversal.
Key observation: focus on $BTC74800 support. Holding this level means just a shakeout of leverage; a confirmed break will trigger large-scale chain liquidations of longs.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% $BTC $ETH $TRUMP 市场结构正在发生变化。 $BTC 本周强势反弹，一度冲上 $79K 附近，目前仍守在 $77K–$78K 区间；$ETH 同样快速回升，重新站上 $2.4K，并持续测试 $2.5K 关口。 更值得关注的不是单纯的价格上涨，而是机构资金正在明显回归。 最新数据显示，美国现货 BTC + ETH ETF 上周合计净流入约 $2.6B，其中 BTC ETF 吸引约 $1.9B，ETH ETF 增加接近 $700M，成为 2026 年以来最强劲的一周之一。 与此同时，这轮上涨也伴随着大规模空头平仓。近期市场累计出现超过 $4B 的空头清算，说明杠杆资金确实放大了行情，但 ETF 的持续流入让这波反弹拥有了比单纯 short squeeze 更坚实的基础。 还有一个新的催化剂正在出现：美元走弱、美国国债回购政策以及加密监管预期改善，正在推动更多资金重新关注 BTC、黄金等稀缺资产。 接下来真正需要观察的是： 📊 ETF 资金流是否持续 📈 Open Interest 会不会继续过热 💰 Funding Rate 是否重新飙升 如果杠杆热度降温之后，$BTC 仍能稳住 $75K–$77K，而Many traders habitually view BTC and ETH as linked, believing the two will always rise and fall together, and operate both coins following the same strategy. However, as the market evolves, the pricing logic of the two has clearly diverged.
Bitcoin plays more of a role as a digital reserve asset, being more influenced by macro funds and institutional ETF inflows and outflows. During market panic corrections, its holdings remain relatively stable, highlighting its resilience. Ethereum, besides being affected by the macro environment, also depends on on-chain ecosystem activity, staking unlocks, and various narrative catalysts. The same external news might cause only minor fluctuations in $BTC, while $ETH could experience much larger swings.
This explains why sometimes the overall market seems stable but ETH’s pullback is painful; or when the market slightly recovers, ETH’s rebound far exceeds Bitcoin’s. Trading cannot simply apply the same strategy to both assets; one must learn to distinguish which is the base asset and which is the more elastic one. In a range-bound market, avoid blindly predicting a one-sided move; wait for clear capital signals before participating with the trend for a much safer approach.$PI −3.78% $GRVT −14% $BEAT −20.51% on $56M volume This is not “alts are red so everything falls.” The tape is separating three different types of holders. 📉 $PI — 0.08938 (−3.78%) Community coin. Long-term holders, little leverage, little short-term FOMO. When BTC chops around 76–77k, it only gets pulled slightly. The small dump is not strength. It is apathy: no one is selling hard, and no one is buying hard either. ⚡ $GRVT — 0.22837 (−14%) Hybrid exchange token, TGE late July. ~11% float. ThiBTC rose from 64,000 to 77,000, effectively eliminating short positions. Is taking a short position in this range a poor risk-reward choice? The original post covers the market structure and response strategy following the sharp rise from 64,000 to 77,000. The key numbers presented by the poster are reaching 77,000, the next resistance at 79,500~80,000, and the possibility of returning to 75,000 if support fails. This indicates that after a short-term overheating, the price has entered a new range, and how the market currently perceives the price is crucial. The recent rally over the past few days has liquidated short sellers, securing upward momentum. Short liquidations in the derivatives market lead to forced buying, which drives further price increases. The market has now entered a stage where position management is more important than direction. The 79,500~80,000 range emphasized by the poster is a point where psychological and technical resistance overlap, and holding or losing this range could be a turning point that determines the future direction. From this perspective, the bullish scenario is 加密市场的结构正在发生变化。 $BTC 在强势反弹后站稳 $76,000–$79,500 区间，$ETH 也重新突破 $2,400 并向更高位置发起挑战。最新一轮上涨不仅来自市场情绪改善，机构资金的回归同样成为重要推动力。 截至8月21日，美国现货 $BTC 与 $ETH ETF 单周合计净流入约 26亿美元，创下自2025年10月以来最强的一周。其中，比特币ETF约吸引 19亿美元，以太坊ETF接近 7亿美元，显示机构资本正在重新进入主流加密资产。 与此同时，杠杆市场也放大了上涨速度。近期大量空头仓位被强制平仓，推动价格快速上升，但真正值得关注的并不是短期逼空，而是 ETF资金是否能够持续流入。近期市场还受到美国国债回购计划、监管预期改善以及加密政策讨论升温等因素支持。 接下来市场需要关注三个核心数据： 🔹 ETF资金流向是否持续增加 🔹 Open Interest（未平仓合约）是否健康变化 🔹 Funding Rate（资金费率）是否重新进入过热区域 如果杠杆逐渐降温，而 $BTC 和 $ETH 仍然能够守住当前价格区间，那么这轮上涨的基础将更值得信任。 真正的牛市确认，不是BTC has already touched 79,000 once.
But the closer it gets to 80,000, the less I want to chase.
In the past week, BTC has risen about 23%,
climbing from over 60,000 all the way to around 79,000.
What’s even more noteworthy is:
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.61 billion this week,
with approximately $606 million on Thursday alone.
This indicates that this round of gains isn’t just retail sentiment,
institutional funds have indeed returned.
But on the other hand, we can’t ignore that:
Since Wednesday, liquidations of shorts in the crypto market have exceeded $4.3 billion.
In other words, this rally is driven by:
ETF capital inflows
+
Weakening dollar and improved liquidity expectations
+
Improved policy outlook
+
Massive short squeeze
So I won’t simply say:
"80,000 will definitely be broken."
Moving forward, I’m more focused on two questions:
First:
Can BTC truly break through and hold above 80,000?
Second:
If there’s a pullback, can it hold around 75,000?
If it holds above 80,000, I will remain bullish.
If it fails to break through and quickly falls back below 75,000, I will start to raise my caution significantly.
For those who already hold spot, I don’t think there’s a need to make rash moves just because it’s near 80,000.
For those completely out of the market, I especially don’t recommend suddenly going all in due to FOMO.
Being bullish on the direction
does not mean every price is worth buying. Against the backdrop of an overall pullback in the crypto market and high macro interest rate pressure, $SKHY has independently experienced a steady rise thanks to its TradFi asset attributes in the US stock market. The core contradiction lies in the cross-market decoupling between risk-averse capital inflows in external stock markets and liquidity drain in native crypto markets. When the asset price runs close to the upper Bollinger Band, market focus centers on whether the macro US stock momentum and crypto market risk-hedging demand can continue to overlap.
Currently, $SKHY is quoted at 165.31, with a 24-hour increase of 1.12%, trading within the range of 163.22 to 166.03. The short-term resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at 165.80, directly testing the willingness of external capital to push upward; the 20-day moving average at 164.28 forms key support, determining the continuation of the bullish structure. The 1-hour MACD maintains growing red bars, indicating that momentum brought by the US stock trading session has not yet faded.
The driving factors leading this round of movement are ranked as follows: fundamental expectations of traditional US stocks, the degree of suppression of risk assets by the US dollar index and risk-free interest rates, and risk-hedging diversion after the squeeze of native crypto altcoin funds. Unlike high-beta altcoin assets constrained by liquidity contraction, the stock ADR attribute anchors its trading logic directly to US stock market opening sentiment rather than following crypto market declines.
Upside scenario: If the US stock market remains strong and US Treasury yields show a temporary decline, $SKHY breaks through and holds above the 165.80 resistance level, opening the price to test new highs. This scenario triggers if the US main board rises with volume; close attention should be paid to whether the US dollar index breaks below key resistance. If a crypto market crash causes liquidity exhaustion and drags down overall sentiment, this upside logic fails.
Downside scenario: If the US stock market experiences macro negative news triggering an overall pullback, and US Treasury yields rebound, $SKHY breaks below the 20-day moving average support at 164.28, shifting from steady rise to oscillating decline. Variables to observe include the decline and volume contraction of external US stock futures; if crypto funds quickly flow back to TradFi risk-hedging sectors, this downside scenario is negated.
Invalidation conditions lie in the breakdown of cross-market linkage logic, i.e., if the US stock market pulls back but this asset decouples with volume surge and independent decline, or if the crypto market rebounds but experiences a stampede outflow of funds. Any single anti-drop attribute faces revaluation pressure amid overall macro liquidity tightening.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, core observation variables include the actual absorption strength after the US stock market opens, the effectiveness of the 164.28 moving average support, and changes in US Treasury yield trends.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大Interesting news that NVIDIA AI servers are rumored to be raising prices, ZEC is boosting the privacy narrative's valuation, and ETH is holding around 2400 to support risk appetite.
All three lines strengthening together, I am willing to interpret this as the market repricing "scarcity."
NVIDIA servers may see price increases exceeding 15%, superficially showing $NVDA has stronger pricing power, but looking deeper, it's the rising memory costs leading the way.
If customers accept orders in full, both NVIDIA and the storage chain can benefit from AI capital expenditure dividends; however, if cloud providers find the bills too steep and delay purchases, the price hike could turn into demand pressure.
So this cannot be directly translated as "NVIDIA continues to rise."
$ZEC is driven by three catalysts: ETF filings, Ironwood upgrade, and mining hash rate, once surging to 859 before retreating near 800.
Open interest slightly decreased over the past day, indicating this wave isn't solely supported by leverage; but whether the ETF will launch and a single entity controlling about 18% of hash power remain two thorns.
$ETH is now the water level gauge. Holding near 2400, funding rates are not high, and open interest increased about 5.6% in one day, showing money and leverage are returning. If ETH holds steady, risk appetite can continue to spill over to ZEC; once ETH turns down, high-level privacy coins usually get hit first.
Therefore, I will first watch if ETH remains stable, then see if ZEC can hold 800, and finally wait for official NVIDIA and cloud vendor orders to confirm the price hike.
The stories are all good, but what really matters is realization.
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 加密市场的节奏正在发生变化。$BTC 本周一度冲上 $79K 上方，目前在 $76K–$78K 区间波动；与此同时，$ETH 强势突破 $2.3K，并持续向 $2.5K 附近推进。 最新数据显示，美国现货比特币 ETF 在 8 月 17 日至 21 日连续吸引大量资金流入，其中仅 8 月 19 日至 21 日，BTC ETF 就分别录得约 $517M、$606M 和 $308M 的净流入，机构资金回归的信号越来越明显。 不过，这波上涨并不完全来自现货买盘。大量空头仓位被清算也明显放大了上涨速度，近期加密市场的空头清算规模已达到数十亿美元。 真正值得关注的不是短期暴涨，而是上涨后的市场结构。 接下来重点观察： 🔹 ETF 资金是否继续净流入 🔹 Open Interest 是否在上涨后逐渐降温 🔹 Funding Rate 是否保持健康，避免过度杠杆 如果 $BTC 能稳定守住 $75K–$77K，而 $ETH 保持在 $2.3K 上方，同时 ETF 资金持续进入，那么这轮反弹可能不仅仅是一场空头挤压，而是市场趋势真正开始转向的信号。 价格可以由杠杆推动，但持续的机构资金流入，才可BTC and ETH: On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth, Whose Rebound Is More Solid
Recently, the crypto market has entered a high-level consolidation after a surge. BTC has been tugging back and forth around $76,000-$79,000, while ETH has been fluctuating widely between $2,400-$2,600. Market sentiment is volatile, and the divergence between bulls and bears continues to widen. Many focus solely on price movements to judge market strength, overlooking that on-chain data is the true mirror reflecting capital’s real intentions. Although both appear to be consolidating synchronously, the alignment between on-chain data and market performance is completely different: one shows long-term capital quietly accumulating, the other reflects emotional capital’s overextension. Understanding these fundamental differences is key to discerning whose rebound is more robust.
First, look at BTC, whose core characteristic is that on-chain strength far exceeds market performance. On-chain data shows that in the past two weeks, the net outflow of BTC from all exchanges exceeded 12,000 coins, marking the largest two-week net outflow since 2026. After the price rebounded to a high level, large holders and institutions did not concentrate on selling; instead, they continuously transferred coins from exchanges to cold storage addresses for safekeeping, a typical long-term bullish behavior. Meanwhile, spot BTC ETFs have maintained steady net inflows, with over $3.6 billion flowing in over the past month, and top institutional product holdings steadily climbing. The synchronized accumulation by institutions and large holders means active circulating supply is continuously shrinking, forming a mid-to-long-term supply contraction pattern.
However, market performance remains relatively restrained, with prices unable to effectively break through the $80,000 psychological barrier. Every attempt to surge near $79,000 meets resistance and pulls back. The core reason is not a lack of buying pressure but the concentrated release of previously trapped positions: the $78,000-$82,000 range is a dense chip zone from late 2025, where many retail holders are trapped and waiting to break even, triggering concentrated selling pressure each time the price touches this zone. In other words, BTC is not unable to rise but is actively digesting selling pressure and raising the market’s average holding cost through consolidation and turnover. This "strong on-chain, stable market" pattern is often a typical signal of an upward continuation rather than a peak and decline. Technically, $75,000 is the core cost support level for this cycle; as long as it is not effectively broken, the mid-term bullish bias remains unchanged.
Next, consider ETH, which shows market elasticity greater than on-chain fundamentals. The underlying fundamentals remain solid: total network staking has surpassed 42.3 million coins, accounting for 35.1% of total supply, hitting a new all-time high. Over one-third of circulating supply is locked long-term in staking contracts, structurally shrinking supply and fundamentally supporting the price floor, making deep declines unlikely. Layer 2 networks’ locked value and transaction counts also continue steady growth, and the ecosystem’s fundamental positive trend remains intact.
However, short-term price support is weakening. On-chain data shows a slight net inflow of ETH to exchanges over the past week, contrasting sharply with BTC’s continuous net outflow, indicating short-term profit-taking is moving to exchanges for selling at highs. Meanwhile, the growth rate of active on-chain addresses is only one-third of the price increase, meaning real on-chain usage demand is not keeping pace with price gains. This ETH rally relies more on AI+Crypto narrative catalysts and derivative leverage funds rather than synchronous fundamental improvement. This results in a highly emotional market with fierce but weakly sustained rallies; once sentiment fades, corrections will be swift. Technically, the $2,380-$2,420 range is a short-term dense chip support zone; a break below this will open room for adjustment.
Overall, the rebounds of the two have essential differences. BTC’s rise is backed by real chip locking and institutional capital support, representing a value re-evaluation within existing capital, with steady and sustainable momentum; consolidation is merely a buildup phase. ETH’s rise is supported by fundamentals but overextended by sentiment, driven by narrative and leverage, characterized by high volatility and speculative trading, requiring full digestion after impulsive rallies.
In terms of strategy, different approaches are needed: BTC suits a mid-term allocation strategy—hold core positions, accumulate gradually on pullbacks to support zones, and avoid changing direction due to short-term volatility to capture cycle gains. ETH suits swing trading—take profits gradually near resistance zones, consider buying on dips after stabilization, strictly control position size, and capitalize on sentiment-driven moves. Ultimately, the most reliable indicator in the market is never price movement alone but the underlying data and logic. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% Regarding the September Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision and dot plot (SEP), the core battle between U.S. Treasury yields and spot gold lies in the "Terminal Rate expectation adjustment" and the "directional linkage between real interest rates (10Y TIPS) and the U.S. dollar index." Scenario 1: Hawkish tone (inflation stickiness higher than expected) Policy profile: If the Federal Reserve is influenced by supply chain costs such as diesel prices and chooses to hold steady, or even cuts rates by 25bp but raises the median terminal rate in the dot plot for 2026 to above 3.75%, with Powell emphasizing that the "battle against inflation is not over." U.S. Treasury market transmission: Spot gold transmission: Scenario 2: Baseline neutral (data-dependent preventive rate cut) Policy profile: A 25bp rate cut, with the dot plot showing 1–2 gradual rate cuts remaining within the year, guiding the federal funds rate to the policy neutral range (about 3.0%–3.25%), and the post-meeting statement emphasizing "balanced risks in both directions." U.S. Treasury market transmission: Spot gold transmission: Scenario 3: Dovish beyond expectations (labor market alarm sounded) Policy profile: A single 50bp rate cut, or a 25bp cut combined with a significant downward revision of the terminal rate in the dot plot (indicating continuous, substantial rate cuts this year and next), with Powell emphasizing very low tolerance for rising unemployment. U.S. Treasury market transmission: Spot gold transmission: Core battle points and position layout for traders 1. U.S. Treasury and interest rate traders: short-end defense and long-end supply suppression Short end (2Y UST): Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) has finally reached the psychological ceiling for humans — $80,000. Now the entire network is focused on that thick, despair-inducing sell wall. According to data from HODL15Capital, big holders on Coinbase have already set up a near $100 million machine gun around $80,000.
The most amusing data is this: sell orders near $80,000 on exchanges have been hanging for 99 days, while sell orders near $82,500 have actually been sitting for 108 days.
What does this mean? This is not a temporary impulse from current traders, but rather profit-taking set by old investors waiting patiently three months ago. When someone placed an order three months ago, they probably thought it would never execute in their lifetime, but now BTC has really reached the doorstep. These "zombie orders" are very likely to be withdrawn when the price truly approaches — after all, with such a strong market, who wouldn't want to sell at a higher price?
2. The exchange orders are relatively scattered ($79,945, $80,000, $82,500), like guerrilla tactics; while Coinbase is honestly pressing $38.74 million at the $80,000 round number. This reflects the obsession of US-based funds (institutions and OGs) with round number thresholds.
*If BTC surges to around $79,500, these sell orders that have been hanging for 100 days will start to be massively withdrawn or moved up (this is a typical bull trap turning into a short squeeze). This week, three types of products resonated across the board: the U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchase plans, the dollar fell below 99, and with expectations of Fed rate hikes cooling, risk assets and gold strengthened. BTC and ETH broke through multi-month ranges with a weekly 20%+ volume bullish candle, while XAU stood above 4600 for three consecutive weeks, both showing weekly-level momentum explosions. Next week's direction depends on whether the Jackson Hole annual meeting and PCE can continue the "weak dollar, loose liquidity" trade. This week's ranking of strength is ETH ≈ BTC > XAU (weekly gains about 21–29% vs 21–25% vs 5.2%). Core drivers: mainly broad market and macro drivers: US Treasury long-term repurchase expansion → yield pressure, US dollar above 99→ global risk appetite is rising; ETH and BTC were further amplified by short squeezes and ETF capital inflows. Next week's top focus: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (Fed Chair Walsh speech) + US July PCE—which will determine the next direction for US Treasury yields and the dollar, and is the main switch for whether these three products can sustain momentum. BTC Review: This week's dominant pattern is a breakout from one side: after six consecutive weeks of fluctuating between 62,000 and 66,000 yuan, it broke above with increased volume. On Friday, it briefly touched 79,500 (a multi-month high) before pulling back to about 77,000, with the current price at a relatively high level of the week's highs and lows. Volume and price combine to rise on high volume, with breakouts accompanied by large-scale short covering; Last week, the range was above 66,000–68,000There's a saying in the crypto world: To forge iron, you must be strong yourself. Recently, Hyperliquid (HYPE) has surpassed Dogecoin (DOGE) in market capitalization, entering the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap. It must be said, HYPE has indeed performed exceptionally well in recent years. But behind this event, what is even more worth pondering is: with thousands of projects in the crypto world, why do some eventually go to zero, while others continue to grow? 1. Dogecoin and HYPE: Essentially Two Different Logics Dogecoin's success relies on strong community consensus and meme culture. It doesn't have a complex technical narrative, but it has: global user recognition; Celebrity influence like Elon Musk; Strong market communication capabilities. So DOGE is more like an "emotional asset." When the market is good, market sentiment drives it upward. But if market heat declines, it lacks the support of applications that continuously create value. 2. Why has HYPE risen so quickly? The biggest difference between Hyperliquid is that it truly addresses trading needs. Simply put: Hyperliquid, behind HYPE, is a decentralized perpetual contract trading platform. Its core advantages: trading experience close to centralized exchanges; High-performance matching speed; * Transparent on-chain trading; Users genuinely generate trading needs. It's not just about telling stories, but about competing for a real market: the crypto trading market. This is also why it can quickly gain user and financial attention in a short period of time. 3. For what purposeOKX market, currently $ZRO has surged nearly 24% intraday, very strong at the moment, but be cautious about chasing.
Price is about $1.24, 24-hour trading volume is approximately $116 million, turnover rate 26%, clearly high volatility funds are scrambling to accumulate.
However, note the market cap is only $438 million, while the fully diluted valuation reaches $1.24 billion, with a circulation rate of about 35%, so dilution pressure on the tokens has not disappeared.
LayerZero announced on August 4th that WBTC migrated, on the 18th FRNT switched to Chainlink CCIP, and from the 19th to 20th Nethermind also withdrew from the LayerZero validator role; publicly disclosed migrated assets have approached $15 billion.
On the 22nd, LayerZero will stop off-chain support for 15 low-activity chains.
This week ZRO also experienced an unlocking of about $20 million.
Both fundamentals and news are under heavy pressure, yet the coin price is rallying against the trend, possibly due to an oversold rebound combined with short covering, definitely not a value revaluation.
ZRO is still about 84% below its historical high.
True strength is not a single big bullish candle, but when customer loss stops, business data recovers, and the market recognizes it. The current advice for ZRO: do not chase highs, wait for a pullback to support.
The cross-chain sector is still alive, but the former leader has been reshuffled!Yesterday's flash crash in the cryptocurrency market left many people stunned.
The rally was still approaching 80,000 during the day, but it plummeted sharply in the evening.
Let's first review the scene:
· Bitcoin successively broke through the 78,000 and 77,000 levels, briefly falling below $77,000.
· Ethereum falls below $2400
· Solana plummeted by approximately 11.5% during trading.
· XRP suffered the most, plummeting 37% in just a few minutes, losing about $0.60.
The margin call data is even more alarming:
· Within one hour of intraday extremes, the entire network liquidated $523 million, with long positions accounting for $448 million in liquidations.
· Within 24 hours, 286,130 people were liquidated, and the total liquidation amount across the entire network exceeded $1.801 billion.
· The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid's BTC-USD, amounting to $24.96 million.
· XRP hit a single line, with over $500 million in long positions liquidated within minutes.
Why did it suddenly collapse?
After gathering information from multiple sources, the reason is actually quite clear—it wasn't a black swan event; it was the leverage that collapsed on its own.
Reason one: The previous short squeeze was too intense, and the accumulation of long-side leverage turned into a powder keg.
From August 19 to 21, the market had just experienced a short squeeze with a nominal value of nearly $3 billion.
Bitcoin was pulled up from $64,000 to above $77,000, rising 20% in three days.
This violent surge attracted a large amount of chasing funds, and it was high-leverage chasing—something retail investors love to do.
Reason Two: A series of short squeezes at high positions triggered forced liquidations.
When the market reaches technical resistance and a preliminary pullback occurs, the crowded high-level long positions quickly fall below the maintenance margin.
The system triggers automatic liquidation, placing market orders that breach the defenses of other accounts—
A chain reaction, a stampede of buyers, and the entire market collapsed within minutes.
$BTC The pace of this round of market movement has clearly shifted. $BTC After a rapid surge, it regained the $76,000–$78,000 range, and $ETH briefly surged above $2,600. Institutional capital inflows have clearly warmed market risk appetite. From a capital flow perspective, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recently seen continuous net inflows, attracting about $2.3 billion in total over the past week, marking a strong level seen in recent months. ETF funds have returned, indicating that this round of rally is not entirely dependent on retail investor sentiment. Of course, leverage remains a variable that cannot be ignored. Previously, a large number of short positions were forced to close out, providing extra fuel for the rapid rally of BTC and ETH; But as short liquidation cools down, whether the subsequent rally can continue depends on whether genuine spot buying can take over. Next, focus on three key indicators: (1) Whether net ETF inflows are sustained (2) Whether open interest (OI) is cooling healthily (3) Whether funding rates have returned to a reasonable range If, after reducing leverage, $BTC can still hold above $74,000, $ETH can also stabilize around $2,450, then the credibility of this round of rally will significantly increase. A truly strong market doesn't rise only when short positions are liquidated, but rather when spot funds are still willing to buy after the leverage wave fades. Next, the question is not just how much the price can rise, but whether institutional funds can continue to take over. #BTC #ETH #比特币 #以太坊 #ETF #加密货币Recently, Ethereum has clearly recaptured market attention. In just about a week, $ETH has rebounded nearly 27% cumulatively, with the price briefly breaking through $2,650 before falling back to fluctuate around $2,500. This round of rally initially largely came from concentrated short closing positions. Against the backdrop of extreme pessimism and accumulated leveraged short positions, liquidation created the first wave of upward momentum. However, as funds continue to flow back into the US spot Ethereum ETF, the driving logic of the market is shifting—from simple "short covering" to a gradual shift toward real cash capital driving the market. What deserves even more attention is the institutional repricing of ETH. On one hand, institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to promote Ethereum ETF staking yield solutions. If regulatory conditions become clearer, ETH may not only have potential for price appreciation but also possess certain native yield attributes. On the other hand, Wall Street is accelerating its asset tokenization strategy, while Ethereum remains one of the key infrastructures in the RWA and stablecoin ecosystem. Institutional funds value not only ETH itself but also the settlement network, smart contracts, and on-chain financial ecosystem behind it. From an asset allocation perspective, BTC remains more of a core defensive asset in the portfolio, while ETH, after a long-term adjustment, has greater resilience. If funds continue to rotate from BTC to high-β assets, ETH could become an important direction for capital seeking excess returns. Currently, I prefer a more conservative allocation approach: about 65% BTC as the core position, ETH around 3Historical comparison: After the crash on March 12, 2020, BTC rose from 3800 to 10000, an increase of 163%. Many people shorted at 5000 and got liquidated. In the 2021 bull market, BTC rose from 10000 to 64000, an increase of 540%. Many people shorted at 20000 and got liquidated. Now BTC has risen from 62800 to 79600, up 22% in a week. Many people shorted at 70000 and got liquidated. I previously lost 200,000 U because I shorted during the bull market, always thinking "it has risen too much and should fall." Now at 76616, resistance above at 79600 → 80000, support below at 76000 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 →75000→73500. I am waiting for a pullback to 75000-76000 to go long, opening a position with 5000 U, stop loss at 4000 points, target 8000 points, risk-reward ratio 2:1. Never hold a position without a stop loss, only go long when the trend is upward. Recovering from a 200,000 U loss. $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入Innovative Drugs: Policy and Fundamentals Resonating, Valuation Recovery Window Opens. Recently, the National Healthcare Security Administration released the "15th Five-Year Plan for Universal Medical Security," clearly establishing mechanisms to support the development of innovative drugs and medical devices through medical insurance; seven departments in Shanghai jointly issued a plan to support global registration and certification of innovative drugs. Domestic innovative drugs going overseas have upgraded from License-out to deep cooperation models such as overseas joint development and profit sharing, enhancing global commercialization certainty. During the mid-year report window, many leading companies have raised their performance guidance, and the sector is expected to usher in systematic valuation recovery.
Recently, it was discovered again that napa cabbage was preserved with formaldehyde; food safety enforcement at the domestic legal level is too lax, and the unfortunate ones are the Chinese people's health. Innovative drugs hope to advance through universal treatment plans to help vulnerable groups in a universal way! Weekly Record: From Deep Loss to Break-even, Why Did I Lose Nearly ¥70,000 Again Because of "Greed"? 🎢
Hello everyone, I’m Xiao Ai.
Opening the OKX asset page and looking at that glaring red line, my mood is as heavy as yours. Over the past week, my total assets went through a thrilling "roller coaster": starting just over ¥500,000, once soaring close to ¥600,000 (¥598,970.18), giving me hope of breaking even and even making a profit. However, just when I thought victory was in sight, the account took a sharp downturn, ending the week with a -11.85% return, a real loss of ¥67,994.67.
From deep loss to break-even, and finally losing it all again due to greed. This is not just a change in numbers, but a test of human nature. Today, Xiao Ai wants to sincerely review with you what I did wrong this week.
📊 Chart 1: The "roller coaster" of assets and the collapse of mindset
Looking at the asset trend chart, the steep upward curve in the middle was my most exciting moment this week. When the market warmed up, my position finally broke even. That feeling of "regaining what was lost" was so wonderful that I had the illusion that the market was under my control.
But when the price hit the peak and started to pull back, my mindset changed.
• Phase 1 (Joy of breaking even): Finally broke even! At this point, I should have reduced my position and taken profits.
• Phase 2 (Greed grows): "It’s already risen so much, let’s hold on a bit longer, maybe it can hit a new high."
• Phase 3 (Refusal to admit mistakes): When profits retraced halfway, I was unwilling to give up and chose to hold on; when profits were completely lost and even turned negative, I panicked, eventually cutting losses or frequently trading to try to recover, which only made things worse.
📈 Chart 2: The "intense casualties" on BTC contracts
If you look at the attached BTCUSDT perpetual contract 1-hour chart, you can see more clearly how I lost all my profits.
The dense green "B" (buy) and red "S" (sell) marks on the chart are a concrete manifestation of my anxiety.
• "Blind fiddling" during the trend: From 62,685 oscillating up to 79,603, I didn’t hold the base position. Instead, I tried to short (S) on every small pullback and chased longs (B) on every rebound.
• Greed at the peak: Notice the area near 79,600 on the chart, I even set a +25% take-profit line. When BTC surged, my unrealized gains were very considerable (once showing +5,698.22). But I was too greedy then, thinking "this is just the beginning," manually canceled the take-profit, wanting to grab the last bit of profit.
• Wear and tear during consolidation: Then the market oscillated between 76,000-78,000, and I started frequent short-term trades. This high-frequency operation not only consumed energy but, more importantly, each entry and exit incurred slippage and fees. When the major trend turned down, these small losses accumulated and eventually ate up the earlier profits.
💡 Xiao Ai’s deep reflection: Who did we really lose to?
Reviewing this week, I’ve drawn three painful lessons to share:
1. Breaking even is not the end; protecting profits is the real skill.
Many friends, like me, rush to break even after losses, and once they do, rush to make profits. This "compensation mentality" causes us to lose discipline in trading. Never change your set take-profit or stop-loss due to momentary greed or fear.
2. Trend is king; refuse to "chase the last penny."
In BTC’s large-scale uptrend, my frequent short-term trades (the dense B/S on the chart) were like picking up sesame seeds and losing watermelons. Trying to catch every fluctuation often means missing the main wave and getting trapped during pullbacks. Learning to let profits run is more important than frequent trading.
3. Control the urge to trade; reduce ineffective trades.
Look at those dense marks on the chart—I know I was watching the market too closely then. Most of the time, the market is noise; only when a clear trend appears is it worth betting on. Trading for the sake of trading only ends up working for the platform and causing yourself trouble.
🌟 Final words
This week’s -11.85%, nearly ¥70,000 tuition fee, bought me a profound lesson: in the market, "greed" is the biggest source of loss.
The market never lacks opportunities; what’s lacking is capital and a good mindset. Going forward, Xiao Ai will force herself to reduce trading frequency, strictly follow strategies, and no longer let greed control her actions.
Have you experienced a similar "roller coaster" in the recent market? Feel free to chat with Xiao Ai in the comments. Let’s support each other and move forward rationally together! The rally rhythm of Bitcoin and Ethereum this week is indeed very similar to Sandisk's trend last week. After a violent continuous surge, many people wonder if the market will switch to a consolidation mode on Saturday.
Logically, there is some commonality: after a short-term sharp rise, a large amount of profit-taking accumulates in the market, and the bullish momentum is consumed, naturally creating a need for a high-level consolidation.
However, there is a core difference between the two: Sandisk is a US stock, and the market is closed on Saturdays and Sundays, so funds completely exit, and the market can only passively digest positions through consolidation.
BTC and ETH, on the other hand, trade 24/7 nonstop. Only institutional funds and US stock-linked funds rest on weekends, causing market liquidity to thin. This does not necessarily lead to narrow sideways consolidation; instead, it is more likely to see wide-ranging fluctuations with spikes sweeping back and forth.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 $BTC $ETH $SNDK #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
My judgment: The shift in growth gears is initially successful but not without concerns. Evidence: China +47.3%, Star People +580.6% rushing to second place, 6 IPs surpassing 1 billion — multiple IPs taking over is not just a PPT but a financial reality. The capability of the IP factory has been validated a second time; Pop Mart is transitioning from a single IP cyclical stock to an IP platform company.
Challenges are real: overseas cooling, inventory of 6.1 billion with a turnover of 201 days (last year 123 days), the annual 20% target is very likely to be missed. Short-term range-bound fluctuations are highly probable; the cards held by the bears are real. The valuation at 13 times already reflects most of the pessimism, leaving limited downside but requiring new catalysts for upside.
It is "actively slowing down and shifting gears," not "hitting a bottleneck." Short term is suppressed by overseas, inventory, and guidance; long term depends on whether the IP factory can produce the next Star People. Speak with mid-year report data, don’t hype, and don’t dismiss a company based on emotions.
In terms of operations, the current position is suitable for observation rather than heavy betting. Wait for inventory turnover to turn, overseas data to stabilize, and Star People to maintain momentum before discussing trend reversal. Until then, treat it with a range-bound mindset; don’t go all in just because it’s cheap, nor be completely bearish just because it’s a year of adjustment. Risks and opportunities both truly exist; express views with position size, not emotions betting on direction. Rhythm is more important than direction (Market page $POPMART ).
$POPMART #Gold Remains High, South Korean Central Bank Returns to the Market
Gold continues to hold at high levels, with the South Korean central bank returning to gold purchases after 13 years. In Q2, it has already allocated to gold ETFs and is building domestic physical gold procurement channels, joining the global central bank gold hoarding trend. The proportion of gold in South Korea's foreign exchange reserves has long been low; this move is part of a long-term diversification strategy for reserves. It will not aggressively buy or manipulate prices in the short term but will firmly support the gold price floor.
It is important to understand that central bank gold purchases are a slow variable, aimed at long-term allocation rather than short-term speculation. They will not directly trigger a sharp surge but largely block deep declines in gold prices. Currently, gold prices are oscillating at high levels, with central banks continuously providing support on one side, while U.S. Treasury yields and inflation data may bring correction pressure at any time, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Regarding BTC, many people tend to fall into a misconception here: do not simply equate rising gold prices with BTC going up. Two scenarios need to be clearly distinguished:
① Scenario one: Geopolitical tensions and currency depreciation narratives ferment, overall liquidity is loose. Hard assets are collectively favored, gold strengthens, and BTC also benefits from the sentiment.
② Scenario two: Pure risk-averse panic, institutions only dare to allocate to traditional safe assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries, risk assets contract, gold remains high, but BTC tends to diverge and weaken.
From a practical perspective, the South Korean central bank's entry is more of a long-term signal and should not be used as a basis for short-term bullish trades. The core drivers for BTC remain U.S. Treasury real yields and spot ETF capital flows. Gold can be used as a macro sentiment reference but should not be directly used as an opening position basis for BTC.Just saw a pretty important piece of news
NVIDIA has already informed some major clients that the price of AI servers delivered starting early next year may increase by more than 15%, with flagship systems like Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell also included in the price hike.
This price increase is mainly due to the continuous rise in memory prices, but what I think is truly worth noting is not the 15%, but that the demand for AI infrastructure has not shown any obvious cooling off so far.
Previously, people worried that AI capital expenditure was too crazy and would eventually become excessive, but now the costs are being passed upstream through GPUs, HBM, servers, and optical communication.
So for the AI sector, I won’t be bearish just because prices have risen a lot for now.
As long as these core hardware components still dare to raise prices, it means there are still buyers willing to pay below.
$NVDA $BTC $ETH #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #ZEC hits a new all-time high on the site, privacy assets revalued
"Grayscale aggressively pushes ZEC spot ETF, surging 46% — is this a privacy revaluation or Wall Street's calculation?"
Grayscale officially submitted a Zcash spot ETF application to the SEC, with ZEC soaring 46% in a single day to reach $859, marking a nearly eight-year high. However, this surge is not a mindless buy-in by old money for dark privacy assets, but an arbitrage short squeeze by market makers on long-term discounted trust shares.
Grayscale charges a staggering 2.5% annual management fee, netting $4.25 million annually from a trust pool holding 200,000 coins. On-chain anonymous pool funds show no movement; the surge in trading volume is entirely concentrated on centralized exchanges. Long positions chasing above $850 are being taken profit on in batches, while the spot base cost line is firmly pinned at $620. $BTC Seen it, the ETH long position is open, 19.8U margin, 10x leverage, opening price $2,415.75, position size 198U. Opened well, ETH is around $2,400, this position is fine.
Noticed you checked take profit and stop loss but haven't filled in the prices yet. For take profit, it's recommended to set around $2,500; if you don't want to set a stop loss, leave it blank, but at least have a mental number.
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**What is Jackson Hole:**
The full name is "Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting," held every late August in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, and has been held for over 40 years.
**Why it matters:**
Central bank governors worldwide (especially the Fed Chair) attend. The Fed Chair usually delivers a keynote speech at the meeting, signaling monetary policy for the second half of the year—whether to raise rates, cut rates, or how to handle balance sheet reduction. These signals directly determine global capital flows.
**Many major market moves historically started here:**
- In 2014, Yellen hinted at rate hikes at Jackson Hole, causing a global stock market crash
- In 2022, Powell hawkishly signaled continued rate hikes here, and the US stock market dropped 3%
- In 2023, Powell said tightening would continue, and the market fell again
**Why it affects you this year:**
This year it’s August 27-29, and the new Fed Chair, Waller, will speak. The 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.33% hit a new high since 2007, meaning global funding costs are very high. If Waller is hawkish (continues tightening), risk assets including BTC will fall; if dovish (hinting at rate cuts or easing), BTC could directly surge to $83K.
So this is not an ordinary meeting; it’s the **defining event for global liquidity direction in the second half of the year**, even more impactful than Nvidia’s earnings report. Nvidia only affects the AI sector, Waller affects pricing of all assets.
He speaks on the evening of August 28, so we just need to watch closely then. An interesting phenomenon has been observed: Recently, in the crypto space, funds are not keen on speculating on newly launched small meme coins, but instead flock to play with old Meme altcoins. Why is this happening? First, there are too many new coin scams, retail investors have been burned and are afraid, so they don't dare to gamble blindly; Second, old coins have sufficient liquidity, making it easy to buy in and exit, whereas new small coins are easy to buy but hard to get out of; Third, the market is currently at a high level and is about to face significant macroeconomic data, so funds seek stability and are unwilling to bet on completely unproven new projects; Fourth, old Memes come with ready-made stories, no need to build narratives from scratch, making them easy to hype. Reminder: old Memes are only less likely to go to zero compared to new small meme coins, but that doesn't mean they won't crash hard. Once sentiment fades, they will also experience significant corrections. Only a few newly hyped Meme stars have a chance to break out, while the vast majority of new coins remain ignored. Why does this pattern appear? 1. New small meme coins carry too much risk, and retail investors are now afraid after being burned. In previous bull markets, just launching a new meme and creating some Twitter hype could pump it several times. Now the market environment has changed: many new coins are pure scams, with project teams dumping tokens immediately after issuance, causing them to go to zero upon listing. Retail investors have suffered too many losses and dare not casually touch unfamiliar new coins, fearing immediate harvesting by project teams. New coins lack consensus and historical token accumulation, making it easy for teams to run away. 2. Old Memes have liquidity and are easy to enter and exit. Coins like $TRUMP, $DOGE, $PEPE have large market caps and sufficient trading volume. Big players can get in and out easily. In contrast, small new coins,$ZEC has been getting more and more outrageous these days.
On August 22, the price once surged to around $860, hitting a new high in about 8 years, and the market cap has now exceeded $13 billion.
And this time, it’s not just the coin price speculating on its own.
Grayscale submitted the fifth revised filing for the Zcash Trust spot ETF to the SEC on August 21, so the ETF route is still moving forward. Meanwhile, Zcash’s mining difficulty recently also hit a historic high.
I’ve been watching ZEC these days, and I increasingly feel the market is repricing the concept of "privacy."
BTC solves the problem of assets not relying on a central issuer, but the BTC ledger itself is highly transparent. What’s really being speculated on this round with ZEC is adding a layer of privacy on top of BTC’s scarce asset logic.
So with ZEC’s rise today, I no longer simply see it as an ordinary altcoin; this round of capital clearly wants to build a bigger narrative around it.
$BTC $ZEC #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 Gold breaks above 4600 USD again
I think the real issue this time lies with U.S. Treasuries
Gold has returned above 4600 USD, reaching a new high in over three months, with a significant cumulative increase in August.
But there is one aspect I find particularly noteworthy this time.
The U.S. Treasury recently expanded long-term bond repurchases, and U.S. Treasury yields have subsequently dropped noticeably. The market's sensitivity stems from the pressure of the U.S. debt scale and the long-term Treasury market.
Previously, when the market panicked, the first reaction was to buy U.S. Treasuries.
Now, an interesting situation is emerging: when the risk itself comes from the U.S. fiscal and debt system, can U.S. Treasuries still continue to serve as the absolute safe-haven asset they once were?
If more and more capital begins to doubt this, gold will gain more than just a short-term rally triggered by a rate cut or a war.
Target 4700
$XAU $XAUT #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $BTC took a direct plunge over the weekend!
Current price $77,159, down 1.53% in 24h, once dropping below $76K. In the past 24 hours, 179,200 people were liquidated across the network, with liquidations totaling $1.238 billion, long positions accounting for $742 million. A typical double liquidation of longs and shorts after a sharp rise.
The engine behind this rally is clear. Bitfinex analysis points out that this round of the market is mainly driven by spot buying and short covering, not new leverage. While BTC rose 10-11%, open interest only increased by 4%, indicating solid spot demand. ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.9 billion last week, hitting a new high since October last year. BlackRock IBIT bought $503 million in a single day on Thursday. But it also warned: investors who bought in the past 5 months are all in profit, and profit-taking is the biggest current risk. The weekend plunge is a footnote to this statement.
Geopolitical risks suddenly intensified. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei declared: "Any country participating in economic sanctions against Iran will be considered an enemy." Gold directly broke through $4,600, hitting a three-month high. The rise in risk aversion sentiment directly suppresses risk assets. Next Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Yellen will disclose details of the "economic war" against Iran; if the wording is tough, BTC won't escape short-term pressure.
Next week is a truly super week. Wednesday has PCE inflation and NVDA earnings on the same day, and Friday features Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole. If PCE is dovish, expectations for a September rate cut will rise, which is positive for BTC; if NVDA reports badly, the entire AI + crypto narrative chain will be shaken BTC PULLBACK ≠ BOTTOM
$BTC at $77K and $ETH near $2.42K look more like a high-level pullback after BTC failed to reclaim $80K—not a confirmed bottom.
Daily RSI remains heavily overbought after BTC’s 23% surge in 5 days, much of it fueled by short covering. As shorts turn profitable, selling pressure is beginning to build.
Yet ETF demand remains a key support, with ~$600M in one-day BTC inflows led by IBIT. BTC also remains above its 200-day MA.
Watch whether demand absorbs the selling.The sharp rise in ZEC is evaluated as a short squeeze rally, and now is a risk management phase rather than an entry point. In past similar patterns, where did the final surge break off, and how did the price structure develop afterward? ZEC has surged sharply in a short period, attracting the attention of market participants. However, this movement seems to be driven mainly by an imbalance in derivative positions, especially short squeezes, rather than new demand. When the price broke through a certain resistance, short positions crowded near the liquidation price were forcibly liquidated, accelerating the rise. This can lead to a structure where the funding rate surges, imposing additional costs on long positions, so rather than chasing further gains, there is more weight on the possibility of a pullback due to increased position costs. The key issue is whether this rally is a trend reversal or a one-time squeeze. Structurally, ZEC still shows a weak trend compared to BTC. While some funds are confirmed to be dispersed into altcoins as BTC maintains strong relative strength, ZEC's liquidity is thin and vulnerable to large sell-offs. In other words, up toWhy did Bitcoin suddenly take off? Understanding these four logics is key to judging how long the market can continue
Recently, BTC rapidly broke through, with the price once approaching around $80,000. Many think it's just news-driven, but after analysis, this rally is actually the result of four factors working together: macro, capital, policy, and leverage.
First, improved macro liquidity expectations.
The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repos, which the market interpreted as a signal to stabilize long-term interest rates and improve liquidity.
Second, ETF funds returning.
Unlike past rallies driven purely by sentiment, the biggest difference this time is institutional spot capital participation. Recently, U.S. BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, with weekly inflows exceeding $1.6 billion, indicating real buying demand in the market, not just short-term speculation.
Third, improved regulatory expectations.
The market is focusing on the advancement of the U.S. crypto regulatory framework. Reduced policy uncertainty helps institutions further allocate digital assets.
Fourth, short liquidations act as an accelerator.
BTC had been consolidating for a long time with a large accumulation of short positions. When the price broke key resistance, shorts were forced to cover, creating a positive feedback loop of "rising—liquidation—continued rise."
But note:
Short covering can trigger the market start but cannot alone support a long-term rally.
If institutional buying continues, $80,000 may just be a new starting point;
If capital slows, the market may also enter a high-level consolidation phase to digest gains. $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 NVIDIA has brought together 6 investment institutions
[Starting to build a financing platform for the entire AI industry]
Preparing to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital
[The direct reason is that the capital bottleneck has already appeared]
With the surge in demand for large model training and inference, the construction costs of AI data centers are rising
Whether startups, cloud service providers, or large tech companies, the pressure on their balance sheets is increasing
For NVIDIA, if downstream companies cannot continuously pay cash to purchase GPUs, its own high-growth story will be hindered
[NVIDIA leverages over $500 billion]
Providing installment purchase or leasing funds for GPUs to companies within the NVIDIA ecosystem
NVIDIA does not provide financing directly
Instead, based on project evaluation, it offers up to 25% residual value support for some transactions
[NVIDIA is using financial means to leverage its customers]
Reducing their consumption of their own balance sheets
Also paving the funding pipeline for global AI infrastructure and data center construction
Avoiding industry slowdown due to insufficient funds
Even if companies lack cash, they can borrow money to buy chips, thereby locking in NVIDIA's future performance growth
[Book performance improves, leverage increases]
Financial tools can catalyze AI infrastructure but cannot replace core technological breakthroughs, nor can they replace the profitability of AI applications
Ultimately, real profits must support computing power developmentFundamental Research Report $KDA / Kadena (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
Core Judgment: Kadena ($KDA) comprehensive score 56/100, rating narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Fundamental Breakdown: Kadena (token $KDA), public chain/L1 sector. Focuses on PoW + smart contract Chainweb. Benchmarked against BTC, ETH. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): circulating market cap Kadena $3.00B, BTC undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. FDV Kadena $4.20B, BTC undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. Annual revenue Kadena $2.00M, BTC undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users Kadena undisclosed, BTC undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 56/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. Indicator deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
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