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$BTC holds at 78,000, but $ETH breaks below 2,450 — this round of the market is starting to diverge
BTC briefly dropped to around 77,000 yesterday, then climbed back above 78,000 today. ETH wasn’t so lucky, hitting a low of 2,394 this morning and currently at 2,471. BTC can recover after a drop, but ETH can’t — capital is flowing from altcoins to the big coin, with BTC’s market dominance rising to 59.75%.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $437 million, with $298 million from long positions, and 108,000 people liquidated. ETH is the hardest hit, with single-coin liquidations exceeding $100 million, and longs accounting for $71.73 million. Those long on ETH have been washed out the hardest this round.
Regarding ETFs, last week Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $924.5 million, and Ethereum ETFs net inflows of $815.7 million. Institutions are still buying, but on August 28 there was a single-day outflow of $200 million. Capital is flowing in, but confidence is wavering.
Macro pressure hasn’t eased. The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.76%, and the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 60%. BTC was hammered down from 81,000 to 77,000 just on one comment from Powell.
At the 78,000 level, bulls and bears are both probing. ETH’s rebound is more driven by short covering than new capital entering. Don’t rush to bottom-fish; wait for the direction.At 22:00 last night, the U.S. will release the July JOLTS. BTC was around $78,800 this morning, up only about 0.2% in 24 hours. This calmness easily makes people focus only on the "number of job openings."
I look at two more lines: hires and quits rate. In June, job openings were about 7.4 million, hires about 5.3 million, quits about 3.2 million, with a quit rate of 2.0%. Job openings are only recorded on the last day of the month; hires and quits cover the entire month. If openings fall but hires and quits remain steady, the labor market looks more like it's cooling down slowly. If all three weaken together and layoffs rise again, market concerns about the economy will deepen.
After the data is released, I first look at the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, then at BTC spot trading. The first candlestick within minutes can easily mix expectation gaps and leverage liquidations, and drawing conclusions chasing it usually comes at a high cost.
Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, OKX. Personal record, not investment advice.
$BTC #macrodataWoke up early this morning, and last night US storage stocks surged against the trend. SanDisk closed up 5.5%, topping the trading volume chart; Micron rose nearly 3%, SK Hynix, Qualcomm, and Nvidia all rose across the board.
I've always been bullish on storage and have consistently bought a little when prices drop. At least in the current AI environment, this strategy is sound.
Why is storage so resilient?
First, the earnings reports: SanDisk's Q4 revenue surged 51% quarter-over-quarter, with price increases as the core driver. Goldman Sachs even set a target price of $1875, forecasting EPS to quintuple over the next three years.
Second, the price hike wave is spreading. China Jushi Electronics raised prices by 15% to 20% in September. Samsung is cooperating with Nvidia to develop HBM4E. The narrative of high-end storage shortages ranges from SK Hynix CEO's "2030" timeline to storage module manufacturers' "at least 2028"—the whole industry shares this tone.
Third, capital is rotating within the chip sector. Stocks like optical communications and Marvell, which had large gains earlier, were hit, while money is moving into storage, which has the strongest price hike logic and recently validated performance.
To be clearer, interest rates hang like a knife over valuations, but storage is supported by real price increases and shortages, making it the most resilient and counter-trend rising sector in chips.
Broadcom's earnings report is coming up next. Whether this chip rally will differentiate or continue to spread, let's first see its performance.
Personally, I still stick to buying some when prices drop.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 There's nothing much to worry about this week; everyone's eyes are fixed on the same thing—the nonfarm payroll data on Friday.
This is the last employment report before the September interest rate decision, and the market is waiting for it to provide direction. Simply put, the data's quality directly determines how rate cut expectations will move, and the current price of the big coin is entirely hanging on this expectation.
There are roughly three scenarios:
If the data exceeds expectations and is good, then the urgency for rate cuts diminishes, and it might even be interpreted as the rate hike cycle not being over yet. The big coin will likely dip to 75,000 or even 72,000; if the data is mediocre and meets expectations, it will continue to hover around 78,000, with neither bulls nor bears able to take control; conversely, if the data is very poor, rate cut expectations will surge, and the big coin could rally to 82,000.
Right now, the market is oscillating around 78,000, neither advancing nor retreating—in short, just waiting for Friday's data to be released.
Ethereum remains consistently volatile; it bounces higher than anyone when good news comes and falls harder than anyone when bad news hits. Just wait around 2,480 and don't rush to act.
As for stocks like SKHYNIX, don't try to apply the big coin logic rigidly. It not only depends on macro interest rates but also on how funds rotate within the AI sector—sometimes poor nonfarm data won't make it rise, and good data won't necessarily make it fall; it all depends on how the market prices the sentiment at that moment.
Before the data comes out, don't guess the direction blindly; wait patiently and follow the signals once the cards are revealed. Guessing right is luck; guessing wrong costs real money and isn't worth it.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 I believe the probability of a Fed rate hike in September is below 15%, currently priced at 50%. This probability will change after the non-farm payroll data is released; if the data is not overheated, then I think the chance of a rate hike this month is below 10%. Against this backdrop, taking SanDisk as an example, I think it is in a "hesitant rise" phase during this period. Walsh's style is to let the market self-adjust and digest, letting the market work; when intervention is needed, they will act decisively. They are more focused on judging whether the market can self-correct and at what point intervention is necessary. $BTC $SNDK Bitcoin is around 78,520; the 80,000 level is now an unattainable luxury. Short-term resistance is expected between 80,000 and 80,500, which was the position where last week's long positions got trapped. The first support below is at 78,000, then 77,000; the real watershed is near 75,500. Yi Lihua says a Bitcoin pullback to 75,500 is an opportunity. Jiang Zhuoer says BTC is facing its first test since the rise and has already reduced his ETH position by 50%. These two veterans, one bullish and one bearish, indicate that this level is a place both sides must take seriously. In the short term, Bitcoin has failed twice to test the 50-week moving average, with bears holding the initiative, but the ETF's net inflow base from last week remains intact. It is highly likely that before next week's nonfarm payrolls, the price will consolidate between 77,000 and 80,000.
ETH has lost both the 2,500 and 2,450 thresholds. The staking side is still bottlenecked; Ethereum's staking waiting period exceeds 36 days, losing over $350,000 in rewards daily, resulting in low capital entry efficiency, which is an invisible bearish factor sentiment-wise. Jiang Zhuoer's 50% ETH position reduction also added fuel to the market. On the flip side, Tom Lee just said ETH has four major catalysts this year. Last week, ETH's ETF net inflow was 824 million, even stronger than BTC, with BlackRock's ETH A leading at 567 million. This capital foundation is genuine. If 2,450 breaks, look to 2,380; if 2,380 breaks, look to 2,300. Only reclaiming 2,500 above will mark a stop to the decline. ETH is now watching Bitcoin's mood; only if Bitcoin stabilizes will ETH dare to rebound. Currently, ETH prices fluctuate between $2,450 and $2,480, rebounding about 30% from the low in August, reaching the highest level since January this year, but still down over 45% from the August 2025 ATH (about $4,950), with a weak year-to-date performance. The market is shifting from "weak prices" to "structural supply-demand rebalancing." Here is the core analysis. 1. Institutional Funds: ETFs Become the Strongest Buyer US spot Ethereum ETFs saw the strongest inflows of the year in late August: 9–10 consecutive trading days with net inflows, totaling about $142 million to $166 million, with a single-day peak exceeding $225 million. BlackRock ETHA contributed over 70% (about $1 billion+), almost "buying the entire streak." Cumulative net inflows have exceeded $1.2 billion, with AUM about $1.55 billion. This stands in stark contrast to Bitcoin ETFs—BTC funds saw net outflows during the same period. Institutions are repricing ETH as an "interest-bearing infrastructure asset" rather than a purely risk asset. 2. Tightening Supply: Corporate Coin Hoarding + Staking Wave Tom Lee's BitMine continues to accumulate funds aggressively, purchasing 53,501 ETH in the latest week, bringing total holdings to about 5.9 million (about 4.9% of total supply), of which over 85% have been staked, with estimated annualized staking yields exceeding $330 million. Meanwhile, staking across the network remains high, but there is a clear "activation bottleneck"—over 2 million ETH queued to enter, with an average delay of about 36 daysLast week's ETF inflow numbers mostly saw "money is coming," but I focused on another detail. Guess who quietly caught those funds when BTC's continuous inflows suddenly stopped? Last week, crypto spot ETFs attracted over $2 billion, BTC took $924 million, ETH $824 million, SOL and XRP also added $153 million and $110 million respectively. Looking at the total volume alone, it's indeed the appetite that only a bull market can have. But there's a little tail most people have overlooked: on August 28, BTC ETFs ended a nine-day streak of net inflows, with $201.9 million flowing out that day. On the same day, ETH, SOL, and XRP were still flowing in. This isn't money leaving the circle; it's more like money changing seats. My understanding is that the market is shifting from a "certainty premium" to a "resilience preference." BTC was previously considered the safest entry point, but once its inflows start to slow down, those chasing higher volatility naturally flow to higher-beta targets like ETH and SOL. This is not bearish on BTC, but rather a signal of rising risk appetite. From the perspective of derivatives, this rotation often comes with a hidden risk: when funds spread from mainstream leaders to the periphery, it usually means leverage is quietly accumulating. If the funding rates for SOL and XRP perpetual contracts start to rise, be alert to the possibility of short-term market squeezesThese days I have seen a particularly schizophrenic scene.
On one side, Federal Reserve Chair Powell is hawkish: inflation is too high, rate hikes are possible, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.75%, and the market is on edge.
On the other side, the US Treasury Department announced that starting September 9, it will at least double the repurchase scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds. What is a repurchase? It means the Treasury is spending real money to buy back its long-term bonds from the market, supporting and injecting liquidity into long-term debt.
One side is tightening liquidity, the other is loosening it. One side demands money to be more expensive, the other is spending money to take over long-term bonds.
What does this look like? Like a person shouting about losing weight while stuffing braised pork into their mouth, and explaining this as "structural weight loss."
Why is this happening? The US fiscal hole is too large; the primary deficit ranks first among developed countries, and fewer people are buying long-term bonds at auctions. If the Treasury doesn’t support, the long-term bonds will collapse; if Powell isn’t hawkish, inflation expectations will spiral. Each department is trying to save its own fire.
The market already gave the answer in August: BTC rose 23%, gold rose 9%, Nasdaq only rose 4%. Capital is voting with its feet—trading currency depreciation. Rate hikes are short-term pain; debt is a long-term terminal illness. The market is currently buying the "terminal illness" side.
Don’t be scared by a day of hawkish speeches, nor be dazzled by a day of sharp rallies. It’s more useful to see clearly who is printing money, who is borrowing money, and who is defaulting than to just watch the K-line.The longer you stay in the crypto circle, the more you realize that various objective data are far more valuable as references than subjective emotions.
After reviewing multiple market indicators this morning, I have a rough judgment of the current market situation. BlackRock's IBIT continues to accumulate chips, having purchased a total of 13,000 BTC in the past seven days. Meanwhile, the selling pressure from GBTC has almost been exhausted. It is clear that institutional funds are genuinely positioning themselves, providing some bottom support at the current price level.
However, support does not mean the market will immediately start a sharp rally.
Exchange wallets still hold a large amount of tokens, which represent potential selling pressure that could flood the market at any time.
The greed and fear index has dropped to 61 from last week's 73, but it remains in the greed zone, indicating that many retail investors still have a mentality of chasing highs.
Many people see ETF funds continuously flowing in and firmly believe the market will soon hit new highs. But it is important to distinguish that institutions are long-term investors and will not engage in short-term price pumping. Continuous institutional buying and short-term price increases are two completely different matters.
Overall, the current market lacks the driving force for a deep sell-off, and there is also insufficient momentum for a breakout upward.
Sideways oscillation will be the main theme, with occasional spikes to shake out weak holders.
On the spot side, continue to hold mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, and $OKB that you believe in, and just be patient $TRUMP #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 The ONDO research report was banned, but it doesn't matter, these few charts can briefly explain it. Ondo's underlying business has already completed early commercial validation and should no longer be simply classified as a "pure concept RWA project." The strongest business evidence comes from Ondo Stocks: approximately $1B TVL and about $27B cumulative trading volume prove that the market is willing to actually use tokenized securities. The ONDO Token and Ondo company are not the same asset: there is still a clear gap between TVL, revenue, and token value. The real tenfold logic comes from "RWA infrastructure + token value capture," not just pure TVL growth. In the $0.30–0.40 range, ONDO is more suitable for participation with small positions, long cycles, and phased accumulation; if the future value capture mechanism is implemented, the odds will significantly improve; if the business continues to grow but token economics do not improve, valuation expectations should be lowered. The negative impact of the interest rate hike has just been digested, and the data this week is so dense it feels suffocating. #EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Wash's policy stance is being tested
Overall judgment: this week will see high-level oscillation with a bearish bias:
$BTC is most likely to repeatedly fluctuate between 76,000 and 81,000;
SOL/ETH will have limited downside;
$OKB will be the most stable among my holdings;
HYPE will definitely have a panic sell-off before the 6th, keep holding short positions;
xStocks will follow the US stock market, but since the US market is closed this week, trading volume will shrink.
1. This week's dense events: last night ISM + JOLTS, Wednesday ADP private employment, Thursday Challenger + ISM services + Waller speech, Friday non-farm payrolls.
The most significant is the non-farm payrolls; the market hopes it will be weak to open the door for rate cuts, but also fears it will be strong, confirming rate hikes.
2. On the 6th, $HYPE will unlock 9.92 million tokens, valued at $589 million, which is a major negative. The 30-day buyback hedge logic before unlocking is directly broken by this.
3. On the 15th to 16th, FOMC, and on the 15th, the Senate vote on the "Clear Act"—the key moments in September are all in these two weeks. Positioning early is a gamble; chasing highs early is catching a flying knife.#Meta stock price rises after massive settlement, risk pricing reassessed
Meta settled the class action lawsuit on teen addiction for up to $18 billion, ending years of sky-high claims. The extreme risk, originally up to 1.4 trillion, is completely lifted, and the news has driven the stock price to rise against the trend.
The settlement cost is controllable, and the market is beginning to reprice the tail risks of tech stocks, significantly easing capital concerns.
BTC and ETH are not directly affected; the main market trend still follows the Federal Reserve's liquidity expectations.
In the short term, this benefits the sentiment of the US AI tech sector, indirectly boosting the slight recovery of crypto tech concept tokens.
Note, the settlement does not mean all regulatory risks are over; subsequent internet compliance policies still deserve attention. Do not blindly chase hype targets.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. The geopolitical black swan has once again caught the crypto market off guard. The US military struck Iran's Larak Island missile site, Tehran then launched missiles at US bases, WTI crude oil jumped nearly 2% at open, Brent returned to $90, and BTC fell 1.7% in one hour. 📉 At such a moment, I want to share three calm observations. First, don't look for a "sure-win deal" amid the smoke. Whether Iran will continue to retaliate, whether the US will expand its front, whether oil prices can break through $100, and whether the Fed will dare to cut rates in the face of energy inflation—no one truly knows the answers. Heavy positions now feel more like a high-stakes gamble than rational investment. Second, this decline is completely different from June. The core logic of June is employment data and rate hike expectations, at least with data, meeting minutes, and dot plots to deduce. Now, with war, energy shocks, and inflation expectations combined, oil price trends depend not on Powell's remarks but on the next second on the Middle East battlefield. What's even more alarming is that even spot gold is opening down—traditional safe-haven assets have also fallen, so how can BTC, as a risk asset, remain unaffected? Its true pricing power has long been in the hands of dollar liquidity. Third, if you hold idle funds with a cycle of over two years, 77,000 and 85,000 are essentially the same; But for short-term traders, reducing positions and waiting might be the best move right now. U.S. military officials admit that ongoing actions against Iran are "unsustainable," meaning the situation could turn or escalate at any time. Amid such uncertainty,Russia Moves "Money" Onto the Blockchain: Will Future Payments Be Sovereign Currency or USDT/USDC?
On September 1, Russia launched a large-scale promotion of the digital ruble. This is not just an additional payment tool; it marks the sovereign digital currency moving from pilot phase into real consumption scenarios. Starting September 1, major banks and merchants with annual revenues exceeding 120 million rubles must integrate the digital ruble. Companies like Ozon, Wildberries, MTS, Magnit, and Aeroflot are already prepared.
However, its short-term impact on BTC itself is actually limited: $BTC just experienced about a 24% increase in August, while on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $202 million, indicating that the current BTC market is already facing profit-taking pressure.
What is truly worth watching is the competition between CBDCs and stablecoins. Russia is proving that a country can directly digitize payments, settlements, and currency, and that the digital ruble is not a cryptocurrency.
Therefore, I would not interpret this as "Russia embracing cryptocurrency." On the contrary, this is a counterattack by sovereign currency against stablecoins and certain crypto payment scenarios. In the long term, it will stimulate the market to rethink: will future digital payments be issued by the state, or dominated by private digital dollars like USDT/USDC? Zcash (ZEC) is currently around $830–840, with a market cap of about $14.1 billion, ranking in the top 12. Since mid-August, it has launched a nearly 80% rally from about $490, reaching a high of approximately $880–888, the highest point since 2018, then entering a high-level consolidation.
There are three main reasons for this round of increase: first, Grayscale converted the Zcash Trust into a spot ETF (ZCSH), which was listed on NYSE Arca on August 25, opening the institutional channel; second, the privacy narrative has warmed up, with Raoul Pal and others describing it as "Bitcoin with privacy"; third, after the Orchard vulnerability in June, the Ironwood upgrade in July patched the old pool and rebuilt supply auditability, completing market price correction. Recently, Zakura Common reduced the shielded transaction construction time from about 3 seconds to under 200 milliseconds without a hard fork, which is a substantial improvement in user experience. The NU7 holder vote ending on September 14 (block time change from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, whether to cancel halving or switch to smooth issuance, etc.) will continue to provide topics, but the results are advisory in nature and unlikely to drive one-sided pricing in the short term.
Technically, the weekly structure remains bullish, but the daily RSI has fallen back after being overbought, and multiple upper shadows at $880–900 indicate profit-taking. Key support levels are at 800, then 750–770; breaking below 750 may test around 690. Contract trading volume is much higher than spot, with high open interest; the rise is leveraged and so will the pullback be amplified.
**Suggestions for the coming week (not investment advice):** Avoid chasing highs. Those already holding can reduce positions in batches at 860–880 to lock in profits, with stop loss set at a confirmed break below 750. Those looking to enter should wait for a pullback to 780–800 before considering a small long position, targeting a second push to 880–900; only after a breakout and stable hold above should 1000 be considered. Keep positions light and control leverage. Macro risk asset volatility, ETF fund flows, and voting sentiment may cause fluctuations over 10% within a week. The privacy sector logic remains mid-term, but short-term has shifted from a trend to high-volatility consolidation. Finally, wishing all who follow this coin to make profits $ZEC $BTC $ETH $SNDK SanDisk's order was placed before the market opened yesterday during the daytime session.
When the US market opened, I saw it rise directly and thought I missed the chance to get in.
I forgot to cancel the order before going to sleep, and surprisingly it dipped again in the middle of the night before rising 😉 SanDisk's price action is really interesting, fluctuating back and forth, but it still hasn't broken through and held above around 1580. I reduced my position and am holding. Only breaking through the resistance near 1630 can open up further upside potential.
News:
1. Industry fundamentals: AI storage demand continues to expand
The storage industry is currently in a super upcycle driven by AI. TrendForce data shows that in Q2 2026, the top five global NAND manufacturers' revenue grew 77% quarter-over-quarter to $68.87 billion. This year, eSSD will surpass smartphones as the largest NAND application for the first time.
Recent key catalysts:
· August 31: Kioxia and SanDisk announced plans to jointly invest about $31 billion in Japan to expand NAND capacity
· August 25: TrendForce forecasts global AI infrastructure capital expenditure will reach $1.383 trillion in 2027, with nearly 70% flowing into DRAM and NAND flash
2. On-chain data: funds are withdrawing
Key risk signals: SNDK's open interest (OI) on Hyperliquid dropped from about $196 million to $157 million, a 19.5% decrease, with position count down 47.2%. Long effective leverage fell from 5.8x to 3.4x, shorts from 6.7x to 5.9x. OI declined another 30.3% in the past 7 days. This rally is more of a "deleveraging rebound" rather than sustained new capital inflow.
It has been oscillating between 1600-1400 for many days, a downtrend consolidation zone. If the bulls cannot repair and continue the rise, the market may eventually fall after a prolonged period.
The above is my personal opinion for reference only.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 Core focus: Strategy buys BTC again | BTC $77,000–$78,000 support | September 4 nonfarm payrolls | September 11 CPI | September 15–16 FOMC | Can ETF funds strengthen again? Yesterday was the last trading day of August. BTC did not continue to break above $80,000, but surged near $79,246 before pulling back, currently holding around $77,800. BTC rose about 23% cumulatively in August, but by September, the market environment had changed: on one hand, after Jackson Hole, Warsh significantly raised market pricing for a rate hike in September, and short-term US Treasury yields surged rapidly; On the other hand, institutional funds have not fully withdrawn due to the macro hawkish turn. On August 31, Strategy repurchased 4,603 BTC worth about $369.7 million. So the most important thing now is not to judge whether September will definitely rise or fall, but to observe whether BTC will find new spot support near $77,000–78,000 after increased macro pressure. If this can be repeatedly held and ETF funds turn positive again, then August's rise will no longer be just a short squeeze; If after the break, volume increases, ETF outflows continue, and open interest (OI) declines simultaneously, it means the market is entering a phase of active deleveraging after the rally. 1. Macro: September shifts from "rate cut trading" to "data trading" Warsh's hawkish remarks are changing the trading framework for September. Market2. Bitcoin: Is $80,000 Heaven or Hell?
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $78,000-$79,000. From a technical perspective, only a clear close above $79,500 can open the path to $84,000-$89,000; if it falls below $76,800, it will retest the low $70,000 range.
But the on-chain data is quite unsettling.
Binance's Bitcoin reserves have climbed to 687,000 BTC, the highest since 2026, while exchange stablecoin reserves are shrinking — this is a distribution phase, not an accumulation phase. The trader unrealized profit ratio has surged to 20.5%, and whales realized $614 million in profits on August 20 alone.
What’s even more painful: of the $6.55 billion short squeeze in August, how much was real spot demand, and how much was just shorts being forced to cover? If it’s the latter, the market could crash right at the September open.
The CryptoSlate model predicts a target price of $81,319 on September 29 — only a $2,000 to $3,000 increase in a month? This is not a surge; it’s a script for high-level consolidation.
$SOL $ETH $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Brothers, how awesome was this August rally? Bitcoin surged 24% in a single week, marking the biggest increase in three years; Ethereum rose 40% in August, outperforming all macro assets. But the question is—can it keep charging in September?
Today, I won’t draw K-lines or shout trading calls; I’ll just reveal all the trump cards for September.
---
1. The biggest contradiction: Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates or not?
The starting point of this August surge was the U.S. Treasury’s announcement to double the long-term bond repurchase scale to $4 billion starting September 9—liquidity expectations directly ignited the market.
But September’s situation is completely different.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole pushed the probability of a September rate hike directly to 57%. CME FedWatch shows a 38.4% chance, while Polymarket’s estimate is even higher, between 52% and 62.6%. Yet Goldman Sachs says the probability of a September hike is extremely low—institutions and prediction markets are completely at odds.
Tom Lee’s view is the most provocative: he treats the panic over a September crash as a contrarian indicator. He says the Fed meeting on September 15 is a decisive turning point; if the Fed neither raises nor cuts rates, the market could see an "extremely strong rebound," with Bitcoin potentially surging to $150,000.
September 15—remember this date. The Fed’s policy meeting and the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act happen on the same day. This day could directly determine the direction for September and even Q4.
$SOL $ETH $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Guys, I just checked the market, and today's market is quite interesting. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $79,000, and the overnight yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged to 4.76%, hitting a 19-month high. Logically, risk assets should be under pressure, but Bitcoin barely fell, even breaking through the $79,000 mark in the early hours of the morning, up about 0.18%. This shows that amid US Treasury sell-offs and geopolitical conflicts, the market has started to treat Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. However, Ethereum is weaker, dropping about 0.98% to around $2,480, while Bitcoin's market share has risen to 59.75%, clearly concentrating funds into Bitcoin. In the past 24 hours, about $295 million was liquidated across the internet, with long positions accounting for 70%, indicating that the leverage chips used to chase at high prices are being washed out again. How to move tomorrow depends on whether Treasury yields can calm down. If the 10-year yield continues to push above 4.8%, risk assets as a whole will remain under pressure, and Bitcoin may pull back to $77,000-$78,000 to find support; But if the market digests the selling pressure on Treasury bonds, and with the September 15 Senate vote on the CLARITY Act anchored, Bitcoin has a chance to reach $80,000 again. As for trending altcoins today, the market is diverging, with most pulling back. Specifically: $XRP fell 1.59% to around $1.41, but spot ETFs have accumulated net inflows of $1.8 billion, so fundamentals are still solid; $SOL fell 2% to around $100, fighting around $100 in the short term; $DOGE dropped nearly 3%.Giving tax cuts to investments but excluding crypto assets from the door is actually quite thought-provoking.
Ireland is preparing to launch a tax-advantaged savings account for adults, expected to open next year. Stocks, bonds, funds, ETFs, and insurance products can all be included, and within the specified limits, tax benefits can be enjoyed.
But BTC, ETH, and other crypto assets are not included, and derivatives and interest-bearing cash are also excluded.
I think the real discussion is not "why Ireland doesn't allow buying crypto," but a bigger question:
When the government starts actively encouraging ordinary people to invest long-term, what assets will it prioritize?
The answer is actually quite clear.
Assets that can be included in a national savings system must first make regulators feel that the risks are controllable, the rules mature, and consumer protection mechanisms are sound.
Crypto assets have undergone huge changes over the years; ETFs, institutional funds, and custody systems are all developing rapidly, but in the eyes of many countries, they are still distant from being "standard long-term savings assets for ordinary people."
So this policy may not necessarily be just negative news for the crypto industry.
Instead, it puts the issue on the table:
When will crypto assets truly transition from "emerging assets in financial markets" to "standard assets that ordinary people can allocate long-term"?
If this step is truly achieved, its significance may far exceed any single market rally.
Because at that time, what changes will not just be the price, but the entire society's positioning of crypto assets.Crypto assets are experiencing a massive influx of capital, but capital preferences are becoming increasingly refined.
Last week, spot crypto ETFs collectively attracted over $2 billion: BTC net increased by $924 million, ETH gained $824 million, while SOL and XRP brought in $154 million and $110 million respectively.
Notably, after nine consecutive days of gains, BTC saw a sudden net outflow of $202 million on August 28, whereas ETH, SOL, and XRP continued to see net inflows during the same period.
This contrast does not mean that capital is abandoning Bitcoin; rather, institutions are making differentiated allocations based on the prospects of different sectors—ETH benefits from Layer 2 scaling and staking narratives, SOL focuses on high-performance payment scenarios, and XRP leverages progress in cross-border compliance.
BTC’s short-term pullback is more likely due to profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. As the broad rally phase ends, where will the next consensus target for incremental capital be? BTC’s safe-haven attributes, ETH’s ecosystem restructuring, SOL’s mass adoption, or XRP’s regulatory breakthroughs?
The market performance in the coming weeks may provide answers, but one thing is certain: capital has entered a new phase of selective investment.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $ONDO This trend doesn't even require me to think; the account is dancing on its own. During the repeated oscillations in the session, I was focused on one thing: every rebound was weak and soft, it surged once then wilted—this is called a weak rebound. With this kind of structure, no one wants to catch the top, so what else can happen next? It can only look for support downward. No more nonsense, open a short position, entry price 0.3755, just treat the rebound as a free point.
Just finished lunch and checked the market, the price has already dropped to 0.3466, +384.82%, this profit feels good, the wait was worth it.
When the rhythm is right, position management must follow: first close 70%, don't be greedy for the last bit; set a protective stop for the remaining +384.82%, adjust the cost price, and let the rest fly. If it really crashes later, profits keep rolling; if it dares to rebound, we won't feel bad either.
Don't lose patience in the oscillation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
Risk control done upfront is called rationality; cutting losses later is called decisive action.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a new structure to emerge, there are still opportunities, and when the next more comfortable position comes, I will notify you immediately.
$ADA $ETH 🌅 $BTC $ETH OIL IS BECOMING THE MACRO VARIABLE TO WATCH
Bitcoin is starting the session around $78,521, trading inside a relatively tight range between $77,388 and $79,230.
Ethereum is around $2,464, barely moving, while traditional risk assets are also showing some weakness.
But one number stands out:
Brent crude is up 2.7% to around $90.49.
That matters for crypto because a sustained rise in oil prices can put renewed pressure on inflation expectations.
Higher inflation expectations can complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, potentially keeping Treasury yields elevated and reducing the liquidity available for higher-risk assets.
So today's Bitcoin setup is more complicated than simply looking at the green or red candle.
There is still evidence of spot demand.
Spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $7.9M in net inflows on August 31, although several issuers had yet to report at the time of the data.
That's positive, but the size of the inflow is relatively modest compared with the scale of macroeconomic uncertainty currently affecting markets.
This creates an interesting battle.
**Spot buyers are providing support.
Macro pressure is limiting upside.
Leverage could amplify whichever side wins.**
For BTC, the levels are straightforward:
🟢 $77,400 — key support
🔴 $79,230 — immediate resistance
🚀 $80,000 — next upside target if resistance breaks convincingly
If BTC holds $77,400 and gradually pushes through $79,230, the market could start testing whether $80K can finally become support rather than resistance.
But if oil continues climbing and yields move higher, the macro pressure could become harder to ignore.
A break below $77,400 would therefore be more concerning, especially if ETF demand remains weak.
ETH is showing a similar lack of conviction around $2,464.
If Bitcoin strengthens, Ethereum could follow.
If BTC loses support, ETH's higher volatility could make the downside move sharper.
That's why I'm not calling this a breakout or a breakdown yet.
The market is still balancing two competing forces: $ZEC is consolidating in a suspended state after hitting the $870 resistance level, with a subtle tug-of-war forming between the high open interest contracts and the slowing short squeeze momentum.
The price surged from $500 to a high of $870 within two weeks and is currently oscillating repeatedly within a narrow range between $805 and $870.
The spot ETF recorded $14.8 million in trading volume on its first day, the total open interest across the network remains above $1.5 billion, the 24-hour contract liquidation volume has dropped to $5.86 million, and the long-short ratio is nearly balanced.
With spot funds entering and the liquidation ratio between longs and shorts moving toward equilibrium, it indicates that the previous one-sided short squeeze momentum has waned, and the market has entered a phase of chip consolidation.
If the bulls can break through and hold above the $870 resistance with increased volume, the liquidity vacuum above will open up space toward the $900 range, provided that the open interest does not experience a cliff-like drop.
If the market fails to hold the lower boundary of the $805 range, high-leverage long positions will face liquidation pressure, and the entire upward structure may seek support below $800 at a deeper level.
If open interest continues to flow out significantly during the oscillation between $805 and $870, the current stagnant consolidation will be disproven as a high-level distribution by major funds.
In the next 24 hours, the strength of active buying support at $870 is the key variable to determine whether the range will break out or reverse and retest.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估Here's a counterintuitive but repeatedly validated trading framework this year: There's news of war again—this morning, a tanker departing the Strait of Hormuz reported being attacked by three unidentified flying objects. The first reaction is to shout "safe haven, bullish for gold and $BTC," but hold on.
The market's pricing of war this year isn't "safe haven," it's "inflation." The logic is straightforward: trouble in the Middle East → oil prices pushed up → inflation expectations rise → rate hike expectations rise → both risk assets and gold get suppressed by interest rates. To verify, just check if the two-year US Treasury yield is moving up.
So whether war is bullish or bearish for $BTC doesn't depend on "panic," but on whether it ultimately translates into rate cuts or rate hikes. In the current macro environment, the answer leans toward the latter.
Next time you see a geopolitical headline, which indicator will you check first? Here's a real gravity check for those only focused on crypto: Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 2.95% today, the highest in thirty years, approaching the 3% mark. The Bank of Japan meets on September 18, and the deputy governor was still hinting last week that a rate hike this month "remains possible."
The yen has long been the cheapest bucket of water globally—borrowing zero-interest yen to invest in high-yield assets and earn the carry. Now, this bucket of water is about to get more expensive. Once the carry trade unwinds, the impact is never just domestic Japan but hits all risk assets worldwide propped up by cheap leverage, and $BTC is on that list.
Does anyone still remember the August 2024 yen arbitrage unwind that caused crypto to crash overnight? It might not repeat this time, but putting it on your watchlist beats just staring at K-lines.
Are you tracking the Japanese bonds and yen line?A hidden line covered by the K-line, full of trading flavor: Anthropic just signed a $35 billion cloud computing agreement with Lambda, a cloud provider supported by NVIDIA. Interestingly, NVIDIA's role—it's an investor in Lambda, sells chips to Lambda, and also holds leases on the data center side.
A company that is simultaneously selling shovels, a shareholder, and a sublessor, with money circulating within its own ecosystem, turns into a series of "new contract" impressive numbers. This kind of cycle is called prosperity in a bull market, and at the poker table, it's called moving chips from left hand to right hand to grow the pot.
It's not that this business doesn't work, but when most growth comes from the same source self-funding, traders should ask one more question: how much real external demand is there?
$BTC is following AI sentiment this round; whenever any link in the chain loosens, the wind often blows first to crypto. What do you think about this kind of cycle?After a nearly 10% surge in August, a pullback follows as the Fed's hawkish stance continues to take effect; this week's non-farm payrolls will set gold's direction
After a powerful rally, gold has recently experienced a clear high-level retracement. Many are puzzled—after an overall rise of nearly 10% in August, is the big trend over? Today, we will comprehensively clarify the full logic behind this pullback, the key points of the bulls and bears battle, and the core data to closely watch this week.
First, let's review the recent market: on Monday, spot gold fell again by 0.2%, closing firmly at $4448.56, with an intraday low of $4396.43, marking the lowest point since August 19; US gold futures dropped even more sharply, down 1.1% in a single day. Remember, gold's cumulative gain in August was nearly 9.7%, poised to deliver the best monthly performance since January this year, with silver and palladium also strengthening. But overnight, the market sentiment reversed sharply, and high-level longs began concentrated profit-taking.
The turning point came from the hawkish remarks by Fed's Waller at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. He clearly signaled that if inflation does not steadily return toward the 2% target, the Fed still has more work to do. The market quickly interpreted this as a rate hike signal, with the probability of a September hike soaring to 64%-66%. This drove US Treasury yields sharply higher; the 10-year yield briefly surpassed 4.768%, a near two-year high, while the dollar held its two-week peak.
Subsequently, Waller reinforced his tightening stance at the G20 meeting, noting the current investment boom, reduced idle capital, and possibly higher-than-expected US economic potential growth. This sparked market concerns that strong economic resilience and hot investment activity would make inflation stickier, forcing the Fed to keep rates elevated. As a non-yielding asset, gold's holding costs rise with rate hike expectations, naturally leading to capital outflows.
This is also where many recently get confused: with renewed Middle East conflicts, which should be a safe-haven boost for gold, why did gold prices fall?
Now, US-Iran tensions have escalated again, with both sides launching military actions, intensifying the situation. Geopolitical risk has pushed international oil prices up over 2.5%, with Brent crude surpassing $90 per barrel. Rising oil prices directly increase market inflation concerns, leading to expectations that energy price hikes will slow inflation's decline, thereby forcing the Fed to maintain a tighter stance.
In other words, the geopolitical conflict's positive impact on oil prices indirectly becomes a negative for gold. The current market is firmly controlled by rate hike expectations; safe-haven buying power is fully suppressed, so even tense situations struggle to reverse short-term downward pressure.
However, we must objectively view this as just a high-level pullback, not a full bearish reversal. The nearly 10% gain in August is evident, with strong prior bullish momentum. The underlying mid-to-long-term fundamentals—global debt issues, long-term geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank gold purchases—remain intact.
Whether the short-term market can stop falling and stabilize depends on this week's US economic data series. ADP employment, non-farm payrolls, job openings, and subsequent inflation reports are all critical.
If employment data weakens, the market will lower rate hike expectations, giving gold a chance to stop falling and rebound; if employment remains resilient, September rate hike expectations will continue to rise, and gold prices will likely test key support levels further down.
In summary, this round of decline results from the Fed's hawkish stance, rising US Treasury yields, and inflation concerns fueled by higher oil prices—all factors resonating together. The overall bullish structure from August remains, but the short-term upward momentum has been interrupted, and the market has officially entered a high-level volatile adjustment phase.
In the coming days, market fluctuations will significantly increase, with intense battles between bulls and bears. Avoid blindly bottom-fishing or chasing shorts; prioritize waiting for key data releases before making moves. Strictly control position sizes and implement risk protection.
Risk reminder: Personal views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Capital preservation is paramount; risks are borne by the individual.1. Market Panorama Overview On the first trading day of September, the global crypto market experienced a technical rebound after an oversell, with Bitcoin returning to the $78,000 integer level, and most mainstream coins posting slight gains. The initial wave of hawkish sentiment release from Jackson Hole has basically completed, the US dollar index has slightly retreated from its highs, market risk appetite has marginally recovered, but overall remains in a phase of policy expectation recalibration. Incremental capital inflows are cautious, and the entire market is mainly driven by stock competition. This week is the non-farm payroll data week, marking a critical window for policy battles: the market currently prices in about a 60% chance of a rate hike in September, significantly higher than before the Jackson Hole meeting; at 22:00 Beijing time tonight, the August ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released, followed by ADP employment data at 20:15 tomorrow evening (expected increase of 47,000), and the non-farm payroll report at 20:30 on Friday (expected increase of 55,000). Labor market performance will directly verify inflation resilience and provide core basis for the September FOMC policy path, making it the biggest pricing factor in the current market. Core market features: 1. Moderate recovery momentum: mainstream coins generally rebounded but with weak volume; bottom-fishing capital is restrained, mainly driven by short covering and stock competition, with no trend reversal signals. 2. Continued altcoin divergence: TRUMP leads small caps with a rebound driven by political sentiment; DOS, after prior oversell, faces profit-taking; BEAT and BICO show slight recovery, but overall remain in a weak pattern. 3. Strong data-driven caution: capital awaits tonight's PMI and subsequent employment data guidance; overall market leverage remains low, tradingThe previous article explained why I currently favor HYPE among mainstream coins; this one continues by looking at how funds choose. This morning, a giant whale delegated all 488,600 $HYPE tokens to validator nodes without transferring them to exchanges.
These tokens were received from FalconX five months ago, valued at about $17.18 million at that time. When staked, their value had already exceeded $41 million, with an unrealized profit of nearly $24 million. Despite having ample liquidity to cash out, the entire position was staked in the end.
Staking, of course, doesn't mean never selling; the delegation can still be revoked later. But it extends the exit path and temporarily removes these 488,600 HYPE tokens from direct selling pressure. The previous article discussed HYPE's business outlook; this one adds that large holders, after securing nearly $24 million in unrealized gains, still choose to stake. At least for now, it hasn't turned into spot selling pressure on exchanges.
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 $BTC
Today BTC didn't have big fluctuations, just hovering around 78,000. After the rise in August, ETF inflows slowed down, and there was even a single-day outflow, which is a warning. September is seasonally weaker, plus employment data and interest rate expectations, volatility might be greater than the latter half of August. My personal view: first defend 76,000, reduce positions if it breaks; only consider adding positions if it stands above 81,000. The year-end target is set at 88,000–95,000 for now, with a nearly inevitable mid-term pullback.After about 10 weeks of hiatus, Strategy resumed large-scale purchases of $BTC. The latest 8-K shows that from August 24 to 30, Strategy bought 4,603 BTC, investing about $369.7 million, at an average price of $80,318. After the purchases, the company's total holdings reached 845,050 BTC, with a total purchase cost of about $63.7 billion. 1. The most noteworthy moment this time is the resumption of the coin buying rhythm The last time Strategy added BTC was on June 22, when it only bought 520 BTC. In the following weeks, the company continuously reduced its BTC holdings until this time, when it bought 4,603 BTC in one go. So this is not an ordinary weekly coin purchase, but rather Strategy's clear return to an increased holding phase after a period of adjustment. 2. What really hasn't changed is the "issuing stocks for BTC" capital cycle. This week, Strategy sold about 4.53 million MSTR shares, raising about $602.8 million in net funds. The company clearly disclosed that about $369.7 million was used to purchase this batch of BTC; The remaining funds were used to pay preferred stock dividends, buy back STRC, and increase US dollar cash reserves. So this time it can't be simply understood as "Saylor thinking $80,000 is cheap." More precisely, Strategy has once again started its familiar model: using capital markets to raise funds, then converting part of the funds into Bitcoin. 3. 80,000A Brief Discussion in the Crypto Circle: The So-Called "Golden September and Silver October"—Don't Be Fooled by the Months
"Golden September and Silver October" originally refers to the real estate and consumer sectors, where the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day boost consumption and home sales, making it a traditional peak season. Many people apply this concept to the crypto investment market, expecting September to accumulate strength and October to surge.
But the reality in crypto is completely different. September is known as the "September Curse," while October overseas is called "Uptober" for its upward trend.
September is mostly a quarter-end fund withdrawal period, characterized by volatility and digging pits, with stop-loss hunting being common. It's easy to see the classic trading pattern of opening a position, getting hit, taking over the position, and enduring the pain. For a major upward move in September, strong macroeconomic support like Federal Reserve policies is usually required.
If September undergoes a full correction and digging phase, the probability of a recovery rebound in October increases. But this doesn't mean you can blindly go long just because of the month.
ETF fund flows, whale holdings, funding rates, inflation, and non-farm payroll data—these are the core factors that influence the market.
Only with positive catalysts can it be called "Golden September and Silver October." Without them, "Golden September" directly turns into "Pit September." 8.31 CORE Circulation Anomaly: An Accident and a Stress Test. More Precisely: This Is an Anomaly in Validator Reward Distribution.After BTC pulled back from the August 28 high of about $81,500, it has remained oscillating between $77,000 and $78,500. The first full trading window after Wash's speech has passed; funds have not massively withdrawn, but there has also been no "BTC sideways movement with altcoins fully taking over." The past two weeks have seen ETF inflows and short covering; entering September, the market began to digest both high-level turnover and new chips simultaneously. Public calendars show that the unlocking scale in the first week of September is about $1.5 billion, with the most notable being HYPE, SUI, and ENA. Today, the real question is not who rises fastest, but who still has buy orders during BTC's high-level turnover, and who will lose buy support first if BTC falls another 3%. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Today's altcoin radar continues to use "continuous tracking pools + same-day new anomalies," while clearly distinguishing 🟢offense, 🟡observation, and 🔴risk. 1. Strong validation radar: After BTC's pullback, who still stands firm? $OKB｜🟢Platform coin anchor: current price about $112. BTC fell from 81,000 to 78,000, but OKB never fell back below $100, which is more informative than a single-day gain. $110 is the new pivot, $116–120 is the key zone for re-entering price discovery. Holding above $120 with volume points to $125–130 above; breaking below $108 with volume means a return to $100–105 before discussing structure. OKB and SOL make a good comparison group: OKB holds 1On the chessboard, Nvidia's move of the “Queen's Gambit” has already been made, and everyone has seen the iron hoof of computing power demand—but true players never focus on the pieces already placed. Now, the responses from Dell, Broadcom, and Snowflake are the key to determining the middle game’s direction. Hardware is the fortress, software is the passage, and what you need to calculate is not these three immediate moves, but whether the king’s castle on the board twenty moves later will be breached.
Dell’s earnings report is the deployment of the “rook.” Server orders are your rook—it can move straight ahead, crushing all doubts, but it can also be restrained by a small “profit” pawn. If Dell’s rook is stuck at its own baseline, then the “open line” of the AI hardware supply chain won’t be opened. No matter how exquisite Broadcom’s custom chips are afterward, they will only be lone knights on the board, flashy but unable to deliver a decisive strike. What you need to watch is whether the rook occupies the “seventh rank”—whether cash flow truly returns, rather than the “pawn chain” on the order book that only draws bread to satisfy hunger.
Broadcom is the “bishop”—the diagonal that penetrates the entire AI infrastructure core. Custom network chips, switches, accelerator cards—these are the bishop’s diagonals, threatening both “profit” and “growth” simultaneously. But the bishop’s weakness is that it can only move on squares of the same color. If Broadcom’s earnings show that AI network demand remains confined to the ultra-large-scale customer square and cannot spread to edge computing or enterprise private clouds on different-colored squares, then no matter how beautiful it is, it’s just a “bad bishop” in the endgame, unable to capture key pawns.
Snowflake is the “queen”—the recurring revenue from software subscriptions is the strongest yet most protected piece in the entire game. Cloud data consumption is the queen’s “control power”; it doesn’t deliver direct checkmate but invisibly deprives the opponent of breathing space on all squares. If Snowflake’s “data usage per compute hour” growth slows, it means the queen’s range of action is shrinking—no matter how much hardware sells, if software-side traffic doesn’t generate sustained revenue, the entire AI value network becomes a deadlock of “material advantage but no offensive route.” Countless tragedies like this have been recorded in chess manuals: you win the material but lose the time.
Don’t forget, Nvidia’s move has already validated that the “king’s pawn” of computing demand can charge all the way to the end. But the question now is: is this a lone soldier advancing deep, or a whole pawn chain advancing in coordination? Servers, networks, enterprise software—if these three lines cannot be linked by the same “opening theory,” then the current tech stock valuations are a fragile “castle” that the opponent can dismantle with a single “exchange.”
Sacrificing pawns is to open lines. If you ask me today for a strategic forecast on these three earnings reports, my answer is: don’t look at absolute values, look at “piece coordination.” Hardware revenue can be high, but if the gross margin is like a pawn crushed on the edge; software growth can be rapid, but if cash flow is like a central pawn nailed down—these are hidden risks that will cost double in the middle game. True masters have already calculated the endgames formed after every exchange before the opponent moves. I don’t care how the market moves in the next two days; I care about twenty moves later—when the AI story shifts from the “center of the board” to the “flank advance,” how many pieces will still stand in attacking positions.
The position is already open; it’s Black’s turn to respond. #BroadcomDellAIResults $ $BTC Brothers, this week's core is just one — non-farm payrolls.
This is the last employment data before the September rate decision. Released on Friday, the market is now betting on expectations.
The impact on the market can be divided into three scenarios:
Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations: Rate hike expectations are heating up, and the Bitcoin market may test back to 75,000 or even 72,000
Nonfarm payrolls meet expectations: volatile and unclear direction
Nonfarm payrolls below expectations: Rising rate cut expectations could push Bitcoin back above 82,000
The Bitcoin market is currently fluctuating around 78,000; the key is where it moves after the non-farm payroll is implemented.
$ETH Greater elasticity: bullish rallies on positive news and sharp drops on negative news, especially around 2480 and other directions.
$SKHYNIX SanDisk's logic differs from Ding2Bing's; it not only looks at interest rates but also on how funds move within the AI sector. The nonfarm payroll differential may not necessarily rise, and the good may not fall; it depends on how the market interprets it.
Before the data comes out, don't bet on direction. #Intensive employment data release, Walsh's policy stance tested #BTC高位震荡, enhanced synergy with gold #财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns tested again @OKX Planet #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估
Kioxia and SanDisk jointly announced plans to invest over $31 billion (about 5 trillion yen) in Japan by 2032. This covers two factories in Yokkaichi and Kitakami, with a new Fab3 plant in Kitakami targeted to be operational in fiscal year 2029. The joint venture agreement has been extended until the end of 2034. The two companies have cumulatively invested over $50 billion in Japan over the past 25 years.
Is this a supply shock, or is demand following?
UBS predicts NAND prices will rise more than 30% next year. But the market is clearly worried about another issue—Kioxia's stock price has fallen about 50% from its June peak. After the announcement, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics shares also suffered, with Kioxia's stock decline widening to nearly 5%.
Wall Street's stance is also divided: 87.5% of analysts maintain a strong buy rating, while Morningstar lists it as severely overvalued.
The core contradiction of this investment is not the $31 billion itself, but the production timeline—Fab3 will only be operational in 2029. NAND is currently in shortage, but no one can guarantee that demand in 2029 will support the supply after expansion. The NAND cycle memory has not been completely forgotten, and the $31 billion investment is awakening it.#Russia launches large-scale promotion of digital ruble on September 1 The Central Bank of Russia confirmed that starting September 1, 2026, the digital ruble will be promoted on a large scale. The first batch of major banks and large merchants with annual revenues exceeding 120 million rubles must support digital ruble payments; individual use remains voluntary. Regarding $BTC: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ The core is not "Russians will use the digital ruble to buy BTC," but rather: Digital ruble CBDC → global digital currency infrastructure matures → market acceptance of blockchain/digital assets increases → BTC gains long-term narrative support. Also, there is an easily overlooked factor on September 1 in Russia: a new regulatory framework for crypto assets also comes into effect, meaning the digital ruble and crypto assets are placed under a clearer financial regulatory framework. But I want to remind you: Digital ruble ≠ BTC favorable policy. The digital ruble is a CBDC issued by the Central Bank of Russia and is part of the national financial system; Russia has not allowed BTC to become a daily payment currency just because the digital ruble is launched. So BTC is more like a macro benefit of "global digital currency adoption increase," not direct capital inflow. ⸻ Regarding ONDO: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ I find this more interesting. ONDO essentially bets on: Traditional financial assets → Tokenization → On-chain finance Ondo is currently working on tokenizing US Treasury bonds, stocks/ETop spot in contract gains: ZORA jumped 40% in a single day, but its liquidation map has quietly thinned. Have you ever wondered, when a coin rises 40% in 24 hours, how much of the bears are being squeezed behind it? 🫧 After reading the entire contract volatility chart tonight, my first reaction wasn't 'which coin is the strongest,' but 'which coin has the most fragile leverage structure.' ZORA rose 40.26%, with a turnover of $244 million. On the surface, it seems like the public chain sector is being heavily attacked by capital, but if you look closely at changes in holdings, this feels more like a concentrated short-selling short-term push than a new narrative taking place. Short-term traders rush in to push prices, and once the funding rate turns positive to the extreme, every subsequent pullback could trigger a chain of liquidations. Looking at the decliners, ZKP fell 16%, with 20.25 million in turnover. It looks like profit-taking, but what's truly worth noting is that its decline saw almost no solid support. This volume-price structure shows that the market isn't out of money, but rather that money is willing to stay in one place during the same period. 0G rose 24.97%, and the AI sector seemed to be recovering, but trading volume was only 64.58 million, nearly four times lower than ZORA. This shows that the AI rebound is more like a recovery from oversold stock within the sector, rather than a massive influx of new funds. Today's market is essentially trading one word: cross-market linkage. - Funds are withdrawing from memes and old hotspots, flowing into new coins and public chains, but the withdrawal rate is much faster than the inflow. - PUMP fell 11.34%Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 and then fell back. To me, this is not a market trend but a wind tunnel test report for a super high-rise building — the wind direction has changed, but has the core tube shifted? The US spot ETF has had net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, like pouring high-strength concrete continuously on nine floors, not daring to stop for a single day. But the net outflow on August 28 was like the construction crew suddenly running out of materials once, making the entire site listen closely to the steel bars' breathing.
The correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin is the most enduring data to watch. The Nasdaq is like a glass curtain wall, reflecting liquidity illusions; gold is the underground rock layer, bearing humanity's thousands of years of fear and trust in immutability. Now Bitcoin's price curve is starting to follow gold rather than shaking with tech stocks, which means it is no longer an extension platform hanging on internet companies but is conducting its own pile foundation static load test. This building is finally recognizing its own foundation.
CryptoQuant's on-chain retail activity is near a two-year high. This is the number of workers on the scaffolding. Retail investors are carrying bricks into the construction site one by one; their sentiment is like the rotating light atop the tower crane — eye-catching but unable to illuminate the structural engineer's calculation drawings. High on-chain activity only means the site is lively, not that the building quality is qualified. What truly determines whether this building can withstand an 8-magnitude earthquake are the load-bearing walls, shear walls, and piles buried 30 meters underground.
The rise in gold prices along with BTC indicates the market is rearranging the gravity load for this newly built "safe-haven annex." Previously, Bitcoin hung on the curtain wall frame of the Nasdaq; when the wind blew and the curtain wall rattled, BTC shook accordingly. Now it is trying to weld into gold's underground structural layer, which requires new settlement observations. Every steel bar's grip force and every ton of cement's hydration heat need time to verify. Retail resurgence has been seen many times in history — the guardrails are just removed, crowds rush in to take photos, but the next day the workers leave, the tower crane is unloaded, and the facade is revealed.
ETF capital flow cooling is like concrete entering the curing period — quiet on the surface but intense hydration reactions inside. Whether it can withstand winter construction depends on the pouring temperature and curing cycle, not the number of onlookers outside. Whether the locking nails between Bitcoin and gold really bear force will depend on two data points later: after ETF net inflows stop, whether spot trading volume remains; and during violent reverse fluctuations in US stocks, whether BTC's horizontal swing amplitude is restrained by gold's rigidity.
Whether there is enough structural gap left between this building's shear walls and gold anchor piles, I have not confirmed on the blueprints yet. But one thing is clear — the steel bars have already shown rust, and the depth of the rock layer cannot be measured by the tower crane's top sightline. #BTCGoldCorrelation The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has reached 67.9%!
But at this moment, I actually want to remind you:
The higher the rate cut expectations, the more you shouldn't simply interpret it as positive news.
What the market is trading now is not just whether there will be a rate cut in September, but whether the upcoming employment and inflation data can continue to support this expectation.
If the data continues to weaken, the rate cut expectation may further strengthen;
But if economic data shows resilience again, market pricing may quickly adjust.
So at this stage, I will still remain a bit cautious.
Expectations can be traded in advance, but they are also the easiest to be proven wrong by reality.
Especially after market sentiment has clearly heated up, the more everyone talks about a rate cut, the more you need to see if the real data has caught up.
The hotter the market, the more you can't just look at the positives. $BTC Cryptocurrency Market Weekly Report | Week 35 (2026.08.24 - 2026.08.31) # 1. Market Overview This Week The crypto market overall showed **high-level fluctuations and cooling sentiment** this week. Last week, Bitcoin recorded its largest single-week gain in US dollars, but this week shifted from rally to absorption: it first reached $81,455, then was interrupted by Jackson Hole's hawkish remarks, stabilizing around $78,000 over the weekend. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fluctuated between about $2.64 trillion and $2.73 trillion, with a roughly 0.9% decline for the week; Bitcoin's dominance remained between 59.5%–59.8%, with funds still clearly concentrated in the industry leaders, and altcoins overall weaker than BTC/ETH. The Fear and Greed Index fell from last week's high of 73–74 to 62, still in the "greedy" range, but the heat has clearly cooled. In short: Institutional funds are still buying, but macro interest rate expectations have suddenly hardened—the biggest risk this week isn't the plunge itself, but the pricing correction that "after rising too fast, it's the first serious confrontation with the Fed." # 2. BTC & ETH Performance Bitcoin (BTC) - Opened at about $77,750 at the start of the week, reached a high of about $81,455 (August 28, the highest since May 15), hit a low of about $76,900, and closed the weekend at around $78,200–$78,600. - If the opening and closing are weekly, the price is roughly flat to slightly higher; If we consider the caliber of some mechanisms (relative to the height within the week,BTC remains around $78,800. How much longer will it shake before it takes off or lands?
For those who missed the boat, should they keep waiting or can’t resist getting on board to catch the dip?
Short-term hot money is mainly in the token issuance/Meme ecosystem on Robinhood Chain and altcoins like SKR. For example, Binance’s holdings of the latter grew about 59% in one day, but the funding rate is clearly negative, mixing short squeezes and chasing funds.
Strategy continues buying coins, increasing BTC holdings by 4,603 from August 24 to 30, spending about $369.7 million, with an average cost of $80,318; total holdings rose to 845,050 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,412.
Notably, this batch was bought at prices higher than the current BTC price, indicating institutional buying does exist, but it hasn’t directly turned $80,000 into a solid support. What is this troublemaker company up to? Selling low and buying high, malicious shorting?📊 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Direction switched three times, shorts crushed with 3x leverage in 12 hours, barely reversed by longs with 1.03x in 24 hours, cumulative liquidations exceeded $5.86 million, concentration only 46.4%, short squeeze momentum completely exhausted, longs and shorts back to balance...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $5,263.07 $5,263.07 $0
4 hours $166,200 $88,800 $77,400
12 hours $2,722,100 $680,900 $2,041,100
24 hours $5,863,400 $2,979,700 $2,883,700
1-hour dominated by longs (shorts zero), volume $53,000, extreme control but small scale; 4-hour longs slightly lead by 1.15x, volume surged to $88,800, longs and shorts nearly balanced; 12-hour shorts violently reversed with 3x leverage, volume surged to $2,041,100, shorts fully took over; 24-hour longs barely reversed with 1.03x advantage, liquidations $2,979,700 vs shorts $2,883,700, cumulative $5,863,400. 12-hour liquidations only 46.4% of 24-hour total, moderate concentration. Longs leverage changed from 1.15x → shorts 3x → longs 1.03x, forming a V-shaped reversal but very weak, after three direction switches longs and shorts almost completely balanced, short squeeze momentum fully depleted. Leverage recommended to compress within 3x, direction unclear, favor longs with less action.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: employment data is about to test Wash's hawkish stance, Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "currency depreciation trade," and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI returns sustainability.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Debut This Week: Wash's "More Work to Do" Faces First Big Test
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Market expects 58,000 new jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Tuesday JOLTS job openings, Wednesday ADP private employment (+47,000 expected), Thursday ISM manufacturing index will be released sequentially, four pieces of the puzzle revealed over four trading days.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times, clearly stating if inflation does not fall fast enough, "there is still work to do." Market quickly pushed September rate hike probability to 60%. However, July's weak nonfarm data of -23,000 jobs still looms—if this week's employment data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Strengthens, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin touched $81,237 on August 25, then retreated to a high range of $78,000-$79,000; international gold price approached $4,700/oz simultaneously. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with Nasdaq 100 dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while correlation with gold rose above 50%—Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
This shift is driven by the return of the "currency depreciation trade." In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow, with SPDR Gold ETF daily turnover reaching $6.8 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $5.2 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Returns Under Further Scrutiny
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of earnings tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects revenue of $29.24 billion, up 83.3% year-over-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $15.23 billion, with custom AI chip business continuing to explode driven by Google TPU and Meta's self-developed computing power procurement.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company holds $43 billion in AI-optimized server backlog orders; last quarter AI server revenue surged 757% year-over-year to $16.1 billion. But margin pressure is notable—the Infrastructure Solutions Group gross margin dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%. Coupled with Nvidia's prior announcement of AI server price hikes over 15%, whether Dell can maintain its profit margin baseline is the market's key focus.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: this week's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's hawkish "more work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under the "currency depreciation trade," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware returns sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. After three switches, $ZEC contract longs and shorts are almost completely balanced, cumulative liquidations $5.86 million, concentration only 46.4%, short squeeze momentum fully exhausted. As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge this week—the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 This Week's Major US Stock Market Events from Fangwai
Woke up this morning, Bitcoin shorts continue to profit
The week started with a hit from the Middle East.
This morning, the US struck Iran again, targeting Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz.
Shortly after, Iran announced retaliation against US military bases in Jordan.
Oil prices immediately rose, with Brent crude approaching $90 again.
So on Monday, the market faces a very familiar problem: oil prices are rising again.
In recent months, every escalation in US-Iran tensions has caused more than just the war itself to trouble tech stocks.
The transmission path has always been clear:
Middle East escalation
→ Crude oil rises
→ Inflation expectations rise
→ US Treasury yields climb
→ Tech stock valuations come under pressure
Especially after Fed Chair Powell emphasized inflation risks again last week at Jackson Hole, market expectations for further rate hikes in September have clearly increased.
So if oil prices continue to surge today, it’s no surprise that the Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks open under pressure and fall.
But there is also an opposite logic here.
Over the past six months, the market has gradually adapted to US-Iran conflicts.
As long as there is no new large-scale supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices don’t spiral out of control again, the impact of single military actions on US stocks usually becomes shorter.
So today is more of an emotional shock.
What really determines the direction this week is the upcoming employment data.
Tuesday looks at JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing
Last month, US nonfarm payrolls showed negative growth, and the previous two months were significantly revised down.
So now the market wants to know if US companies still want to hire.
If JOLTS job openings continue to decline, it indicates the labor market is indeed cooling.
But just looking at employment is not enough.
In ISM, I will focus on Prices Paid.
Weak employment and falling prices is the best combo for tech stocks.
The economy cools down, and the Fed doesn’t have to worry about inflation.
If employment is weak but prices keep rising, the situation changes completely.
That would increasingly resemble the market’s most hated stagflation.
Tuesday after market close also features $DELL
I bought Dell phones back in college and lost a lot on a business laptop costing over ten thousand.
This earnings report has limited impact on the overall market but is worth watching for the AI hardware supply chain.
Dell is increasingly becoming a piece of the AI server demand puzzle.
If AI server orders and backlog continue to grow, it at least shows that capital expenditures from giants like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are still flowing into servers, GPUs, HBM, DRAM, and enterprise SSDs.
Wednesday
Daytime looks at ADP, evening at $AVGO
Although ADP often doesn’t match nonfarm payrolls, if both JOLTS and ADP show weakness two days in a row, the market will preemptively price in cooling employment for Friday.
Broadcom, I think, is the most important company earnings report this week.
Nvidia already proved last week that GPU demand remains strong.
Broadcom will verify whether hyperscalers’ own AI chips, ASICs, switch chips, and AI networking demand are strong.
If Broadcom continues to significantly raise AI revenue forecasts, it means this round of AI capital expenditure has a very important feature:
Strong GPUs and strong in-house chips.
This is good news for the entire AI infrastructure chain.
Optical communications, networking, servers, HBM, and high-end DRAM will all benefit.
If Nvidia just delivered a strong earnings report but Broadcom suddenly talks about demand slowing, be cautious.
Because that would mean internal divergence in AI demand might be starting.
Thursday continues with ISM Services and initial jobless claims
The US economy is service-sector dominated, so the service PMI is very important.
Still focusing on two things: employment and prices.
Cooling service employment and prices is a soft landing.
Strong service employment and hot prices mean the Fed stays hawkish.
If service employment suddenly collapses, the market will start considering recession.
Friday, the boss arrives
August Nonfarm Payrolls
This time, nonfarm payrolls are much more important than usual.
Because July already showed a -23,000 job loss, the market now needs to confirm whether this was just an anomaly or if US employment has really reached a turning point.
If August job growth is moderately positive and wages don’t accelerate again, I think that’s a relatively good outcome this week.
Employment is cooling.
The economy hasn’t collapsed.
The Fed’s need to continue raising rates decreases.
In this case, Nasdaq, AI, and semiconductors are likely to see valuation recovery.
If nonfarm suddenly turns strong again and wages remain hot, it means July might have been noise.
Combined with oil prices near $90, the market will reprice inflation pressure and expectations for continued Fed hikes.
This combination is most unfriendly to long-term bond yields and high-valuation tech stocks.
The worst case is nonfarm negative growth again while oil prices keep rising.
Then the market faces not just interest rate issues.
The economy weakens but energy prices remain high.
This combination will push the "soft landing" discussion toward "stagflation."
This week
Monday is cautious.
Middle East escalation and rising oil prices will first suppress risk appetite, especially for Nasdaq and semiconductors.
But it won’t cause a big drop just because of this military action.
As long as there is no more severe supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices don’t quickly break into a higher range, the market should return to data-driven trading on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The decisive time is likely Wednesday to Friday.
If employment data gradually cools and Broadcom continues to confirm AI demand, this adjustment might turn into an opportunity.
Macro loosens valuations, AI continues to provide earnings.
This is the best combination.
If oil prices keep rising, ISM prices remain hot, and nonfarm is strong again, the rebound space for tech stocks will be clearly limited.
Because valuations are generally high now.
No matter how strong AI is, it’s hard to fight the continuously rising risk-free rate long term.
So no conclusion on the market can be drawn on Monday.
The US striking Iran today only sets the opening.
JOLTS, ADP, Broadcom, and ISM decide the process.
Friday’s nonfarm truly decides how US stocks will move in September.
This week the market is actually waiting for two answers
Is the US economy moderately cooling or is it losing momentum? $BTC $ETH $TRUMP just pushed the Fear and Greed Index from “Greed” up to 71, BTC touched back to 79.4K, ETH climbed to 2500, and the group chat’s “September main rally” was almost overhyped—then Wash Jackson Hole spoke, and the September rate hike probability jumped from 35% to 60%, the 2-year US Treasury yield surged 10 basis points, BTC was smashed back to 76.8K that night, with $480 million liquidated across the network, bulls accounting for $360 million.
This cold shower isn’t rain, it’s ice-cold. The ETF side is even more divided: BTC ETF had a net outflow of $202 million on 8/28, breaking a 9-day inflow streak; ETH ETF still had a net inflow of $102 million the same day, continuing a 10-day inflow streak. Institutions aren’t exiting, they’re reallocating BTC as temporary base holdings, rolling surplus into ETH and large-cap altcoins, cutting high-beta leveraged longs first amid the macro shift to hawkishness.
Oil prices surged to Brent 90.5 due to the Hormuz conflict, inflation pressure remains, and Wash scrapped forward guidance—every PCE and nonfarm report will be a blind box bomb from now on. Sideways shallow washouts can be played, but don’t mistake FOMO for a trend in front of the 80K wall. Sentiment is the matchstick, macro is the bucket; this week, watch if 76.8K can hold. #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 Everyone in the family, all the waiting, probing, and dark pool bets in the crypto circle this week are essentially waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls.
This is the last core employment data before the September Federal Reserve rate decision that can directly rewrite policy pricing. From Wall Street's macro hedge funds to large spot ETF funds in the crypto market, and retail traders in the futures market, everyone has timed their positions before the data release. Now $BTC has been grinding in a narrow range near 78000 for almost three days. It's not that the market can't move; both bulls and bears are waiting for a clear signal to break the balance.
There are no ambiguous or vague forecasts. Three non-farm results correspond directly to three clear market paths:
Non-farm exceeds expectations and strengthens: The market immediately raises the probability of a September rate hike to over 60%. High interest rate expectations directly kill short-term upside potential. BTC's first support at 75000 will be quickly broken, and during the drop to 72000, a concentrated high-leverage long liquidation will be triggered;
Non-farm falls completely within the expected range: The Fed's policy stance will not loosen at all. The market will enter a trendless tug-of-war with spikes up and down becoming the norm for the next two to three days. There will be almost no short-term trend with certainty to hold, and both bulls and bears will find it hard to make comfortable profits;
Non-farm is significantly below expectations: Rate cut expectations will directly ignite risk asset sentiment. BTC will break out upward from the current consolidation range, quickly reaching the first target of 82000. Funds that missed out will rush in to buy, leaving a very short window for hesitant buyers to dip in.
$ETH is now stuck at the 2480 level, with full elasticity: positive news will push it directly to 2700, negative news will hammer it down to 2200. Its market rhythm is completely in the hands of this non-farm data.
Before the non-farm results are released, all short-term fluctuations do not constitute trend signals.
The essence of heavily betting on one side is treating uncertainty and luck as a certain trading logic.
True trading profits never come from premature bets but from following the clear direction after the cards are revealed.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks are positions and patience to wait for the right chance.
#BTC high-level consolidation, increased correlation with gold
#Employment data densely released, Wash's policy stance tested