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Speaking of MicroStrategy in the crypto world, the market still vividly remembers its early aggressive cookie-hoarding strategy of "not asking about price, only about big Bitcoins." However, by 2026, this "all-in" logic has been reconstructed, replaced by a precise opportunistic allocation philosophy focused on positioning. Its intra-year trading path is a textbook strategic transformation. Full review of the first half of the year's accumulation trajectory: · January: Average price 95,284, a massive 2.16 billion yuan buying in heavy Cangcang; · April: Largest single investment of the year, 2 billion yuan to acquire 34,164 coins; · May 11-17: Spent 2.01 billion yuan to purchase 24,869 tokens at an average price of 80,985; · June 15-21: Only symbolically increased holdings by 520 shares, basically halting operations; · July: Completely "lying flat" with zero operations; · August 24-30: Moved again, investing 369.7 million yuan to buy 4,603 shares at an average price of 80,318. Behind the surface lies a profound transformation of three fundamental logics: First, the lifeblood of financing has changed, and cheap ammunition has run out. The "honeymoon period" of zero-coupon convertible bonds in 2024 is gone, and by then, the nearly cost-free balance sheet expansion channel had already closed. Now, MicroStrategy has had to turn to high-cost preferred stock financing or raise funds through additional shares, but this will directly dilute the original owner's interests. To balance the asset sheet and the value of the Bitcoin per unit, the pace of balance sheet expansion will inevitably be forced to slow down. Second, timing has become a new muscle memory, not just a simple bottom-fishing. According to JPMorgan statistics,Today's market situation is very typical: BTC oscillates near the highs, and everyone is watching the charts while wondering whether to adjust their positions. When there are unrealized gains on paper, people naturally feel "wealthy."
But the payment page doesn't recognize your emotions.
The most frustrating scenario isn't losing money, but having assets while your AI membership expires before a meeting; your code tool quota runs out; cloud service payments fail; and at night, when you want to buy a gift card to supplement your shopping budget, you find you have to go through the whole process of asset conversion, fund arrival, and then payment again.
Small bills of $20, $30, $50 may not seem like much individually, but they are the biggest rhythm breakers. Especially for subscriptions like AI tools, a single interruption doesn't just mean losing a day of membership, but the entire workflow suddenly stalls. You might not want to sell a position just for a few dozen dollars, nor do you want to hassle with the full funding path again for a small expense.
So now when I look at crypto cash flow, I divide the money into two layers:
One layer is the position, which continues to bear volatility and ride the market.
The other layer is money that will definitely be spent in the next 3 to 7 days, such as AI memberships, software subscriptions, cloud services, gift cards, and shopping budgets. This portion of money should no longer jump up and down with the market; its goal is not to earn more, but to be available when needed.
Many people only calculate fees but overlook hidden costs: the time spent on emergency asset conversion, losses from price slippage, retries after payment failures, downtime after bill expiration, and the mental effort of re-planning the path for every small expense.
Having assets does not equal having usable funds $BTC is consolidating between 77462 and 79256, with a trading volume of 414 million, while $ETH is even more timid, fluctuating between 2410 and 2490 with less than 80 points of volatility and a trading volume of only 229 million. Looking at the OKX order book, buy and sell orders are sparse, and both funding rates and open interest show little change. This kind of low-volume sideways movement indicates that both bulls and bears have paused; no one wants to reveal their hand first.
How will September unfold? Here’s my conclusion: most likely, it will continue to consolidate until the Federal Reserve provides direction, then the market will pick a side.
The most critical event in September is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting. Currently, the market is divided on whether there will be a rate hike in September, but the overall tendency is no hike. The problem is that the positive effect of "no rate hike" has already been largely priced in. The fact that BTC touched above 80,000 at the end of August but was pushed back shows that "no rate hike" alone can no longer drive a breakout. What can really energize the market is the Fed signaling a rate cut or at least lowering the "higher for longer" tone. This is unlikely to happen in September and may have to wait until the fourth quarter.
Therefore, my expectation for September is mainly range-bound volatility, with the center of gravity possibly shifting slightly downward but no crash. BTC’s major range is between 74,000 and 82,000, and ETH’s is between 2200 and 2600. After a prolonged low-volume sideways movement, the market will have to choose a direction, likely around the interest rate meeting.
My own strategy is simple: keep the base position unchanged, reduce short-term frequency, and keep enough ammunition. If $BTC retraces to the 75,000-76,000 range, I will gradually buy in with a stop loss below 74,000; if it rebounds directly to 80,000-81,000 without volume, I will reduce some short-term positions. For ETH, I’m watching 2350-2380; if it falls to that area and stabilizes on low volume, I’ll consider buying. In between, I basically stay put.
Honestly, September has always been one of the most grinding months in the crypto space. Don’t expect a sudden breakout, and don’t fear an instant crash. The most important thing is not to predict but to manage your positions and expectations well, so you don’t get whipsawed in the volatility. I’m also watching options data on OKX; the market’s fear of a big drop isn’t high, nor is there crazy chasing of rallies. Under these conditions, it’s most likely to be lukewarm water.#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
I am Cige. BTC couldn't hold above 80000 and has now fallen back to oscillate between 77000 and 78000. The ETF net inflow streak of 9 consecutive days ended on August 28, institutional buying paused for now, while retail activity has actually risen to a nearly two-year high.
The correlation between BTC and gold is strengthening, while the correlation with the Nasdaq is weakening. This signal is more worth watching than price fluctuations. The market is starting to discuss whether BTC is running an independent trend, no longer just following tech stocks. After the ETF buying cools down, whether retail and spot demand can support the market is the most direct variable going forward. The synchronous strengthening of BTC and gold is not just a short-term phenomenon; it is a systemic migration of capital re-pricing fiat credit. Geopolitical conflicts and interest rate hike expectations are happening simultaneously, so short-term oscillations are inevitable, but the underlying logic remains unchanged.
The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 After the $BTC NVIDIA earnings report landed, the AI infrastructure earnings baton was passed to Broadcom and Dell, representing the AI custom chip and AI server system tracks respectively. Their performance and guidance will directly verify the real fulfillment capability of AI capital expenditures. Broadcom holds large ASIC orders from cloud providers, with impressive growth in AI semiconductor revenue, but in the past, there have been cases where meeting performance targets but missing guidance expectations triggered stock price pullbacks. The market is no longer satisfied with simple high revenue growth but pays more attention to long-term delivery pace and gross margin resilience. Dell is rapidly expanding based on AI server orders, benefiting both server and storage businesses simultaneously. The market focus is on whether orders can smoothly convert into revenue and whether upstream component supply will constrain shipment pace.
Currently, the AI sector valuation has fully priced in high prosperity. Even if earnings data exceed expectations, if management is conservative in guidance for subsequent quarters, it is still easy to trigger capital realization and exit. Conversely, if both companies provide strong outlooks for the next quarter, it will further consolidate the prosperity logic of AI infrastructure and drive sentiment recovery across the entire hardware sector.
It is necessary to distinguish between orders and actual revenue; sufficient backlog orders do not equal short-term profit release. Fluctuations in cloud providers' capital expenditures and supply chain bottlenecks are potential variables. Going forward, key observations will focus on the AI business revenue proportion, gross margin changes, and future quarterly guidance, which will become important signals to judge whether the AI market rally can continue. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The SEC's crypto asset custody rules have entered the proposed rule stage, but don't treat it as "new rules have been finalized."
The official agenda item RIN 3235-AN46 proposes to handle investment advisor client assets, investment company fund assets, and crypto asset custody simultaneously; the NPRM target is October 2026, with no rule text or statutory deadline yet.
Therefore, who can custody, what the control standards are, and which provisions will change remain unanswered in public materials.
It is also not a direct revival of the 2023 plan: the SEC officially withdrew the Safeguarding Advisory Client Assets proposal in 2025 and stated that future actions require new proposed rules.
A more practical issue for institutions is: who can initiate operations, who can approve, how permissions are separated, how accounts are isolated, and how authorization and revocation are recorded. With rules undecided, the evidentiary chain for responsibility boundaries can be supplemented first.
Information sources: SEC Unified Agenda (RIN 3235-AN46); SEC 2025 withdrawal announcement; SEC 2023-30.
#CryptoCustody #SEC #DigitalAssets #AI #Web3 #MPCAll drops below 78,000 are fake breakdowns; the $1 billion ETF investment was not wasted. What are you still waiting for?
$1 billion in real money is taking the baton, and you tell me this is the top?
News: Bitfinex reports that last week, the US spot $BTC and $ETH saw a net inflow of nearly $1 billion, with ETH investment products netting $815 million. This August rally is supported by spot buying, with a moderate increase in open contracts and controlled basis — this is not a fake rise built on leverage, but real money buying in.
Technical analysis: RSI6=33.95, approaching oversold. Price retraced from 81,455 down to 78,280, just hitting a key support zone. MACD histogram continues to narrow, indicating bearish momentum exhaustion. The 79,000-80,000 range above is a dense short liquidation zone; once it rebounds, it will be a short squeeze.
Capital flow: 15-day level still shows a net inflow of 8.561 billion; long-term funds have not left at all. Short-term outflows are just profit-taking, the big trend remains intact.
Personal view: Continuous net inflows from ETFs + spot buying support + RSI oversold, 78,000 is the golden pit.
Trading strategy:
Aggressive: go long near the current price of 78,280.
Conservative: go long on a pullback to 77,500-77,800. #Strategy与BitMine同步增持
Strategy and BitMine simultaneously increase holdings, corporate coin hoarding wave resurges
Latest data
Strategy resumes BTC buying, BitMine increases ETH holdings, two listed companies simultaneously expand their crypto treasury. Market price $BTC 78029.
Market consensus
Optimists see this as a strong signal of long-term institutional confidence; cautious voices remind that corporate coin purchases have their own capital operation logic and do not mean a short-term price surge.
Underlying logic analysis
This is not retail-style chasing gains, but treating crypto assets as a company balance sheet allocation option. Large enterprises continuously entering will gradually change the market's capital structure, but the pace of accumulation is unlikely to directly determine short-term price trends.
Personal view (personal inclination towards a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
A long-term positive signal worth noting, not suitable for short-term speculation, still mainly follow macro liquidity trends.If an interest rate hike is chosen in September, where will Bitcoin's first wave drop to? Currently, the probability of a rate hike in September is around 57%, with Jackson Hole releasing a strong hawkish statement. It is important to distinguish: the market has already priced in part of the rate hike expectations in advance; the real impact comes from two things: the official announcement of the rate hike + the press conference continuing to be hawkish, rather than just the rate hike itself. $4.9 million—not a large sum in crypto security incidents. But there's a time lag even more glaring than this money: during the four hours when on-chain funds were withdrawn and the network was forced to pause, what was the official Injective account doing? It was posting marketing content. Not "no time to issue a statement," not "under evaluation." It was continuing to post marketing content as if nothing had happened. This is the part of this news that made me feel most off. A "posting machine running as usual" is scarier than a zombie oracle. Let's clarify the technical issue first: the attacker used an oracle called Frontrunner, which is now obsolete but still registered on-chain without deactivating its "account." The attacker created 299 marketplaces pointing to this "priceless" oracle, triggering the protocol's "priceless refund" protection mechanism, which in turn earned about double the compensation. The stolen USDC was exchanged for 1,980 ETH and quietly sat in an Ethereum wallet. The mechanism was simple, and the lesson was clear: "deactivating" does not mean "deactivation"; zombie components in DeFi are mines buried underground. But what really made me ponder was another thing—while 4.9 million had already been drained on-chain and the network was down for 4 hours, an official account that should represent the project's will chose to continue executing its marketing calendar. The posting machine didn't stop, because it never needed to. Its target may no longer be the "community," but a set of "decent" inertia. This precisely exposes Bi FeiOn the macro front, three events squeezed in within a few days:
The US and Iran are at it again—US forces airstruck Larak Island, Iran retaliated with missiles targeting the US base in Jordan, and Brent crude oil prices surged back above $90. As oil prices rise, inflation expectations climb; after a hawkish stance from Powell, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 36% to 65%, and US Treasury yields broke above 4.75%. High-volatility assets now face an added constraint.
On the other side, Seller declared "We're back," with MicroStrategy actually buying 3.7 billion yuan worth of BTC at an average price of 80,300, compressing their holding cost to 75,400, and turning their book back to positive—this was a timely boost to market sentiment.
Today's market:
$BTC failed to hold above 79,000, retreating to around 78,300, with bulls and bears both waiting.
$ETH is relatively strong, near 2,466, outperforming BTC, with the exchange rate gradually recovering.
$SOL violently rebounded 47% in August, touched 110, the strongest among major coins, now taking a breather at a high level.
$CORE, $CFX, $BICO have no independent trends, purely following beta, with thin volume, all eyes on $BTC's mood.
$LAB is recommended to be withdrawn immediately—named by ZachXBT as manipulated by the team, the whale dumped 92% in a month, unlocking only in August, a fundamentally flawed token to avoid.
Before the rate decision on the 16th, stay light and watch.Why are the price trends of gold and BTC, both hard assets, starting to diverge?
For a long time, the market referred to BTC as digital gold, and the two often rose and fell together. But recently, an interesting phenomenon has emerged: gold ETFs and BTC spot ETFs are both attracting capital, yet intraday they sometimes experience synchronized sell-offs or mismatched price movements, with a clear weakening correlation and a divergence in their trends.
📌 The underlying driving logic of the two is completely different
Gold
1. Core anchor is real interest rates; rising U.S. Treasury yields directly suppress gold prices; only when yields fall does gold experience major rallies.
2. Buyer structure: long-term allocations by central banks, institutional hedging, physical consumption; tends to be a conservative defensive asset. Geopolitical conflicts and inflation risks prioritize gold as a safe haven.
3. Characteristics: pure safe haven and store of value, relatively mild volatility, almost no leverage-driven disturbances.
Bitcoin
1. Half is a hard asset hedge, the other half is a high-beta risk asset; besides interest rates, it is heavily influenced by market risk appetite, ETF capital, and contract liquidation leverage.
2. Buyer structure: spot ETF institutions, large crypto holders, retail investors; capital rotation effects are very strong.
3. Characteristics: strong upward momentum, but once risk appetite declines, cascading liquidations of contracts can amplify the downturn.
🧩 Three current practical reasons for the divergence
1. Facing the same interest rate hike expectations, the pressure levels differ
Hawkish statements from the Fed push U.S. Treasury yields higher. Gold is directly suppressed by real interest rates; BTC, besides interest rates, also suffers from dual shocks of contract long-short liquidations and shrinking risk appetite, causing more volatile swings than gold.
2. The safe haven narrative is no longer fully applicable
Geopolitical conflicts do not necessarily cause both to rise together.
When oil prices surge and push inflation expectations up, the market tends to trade on "continued rate hikes," during which safe haven funds prioritize buying the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, causing both gold and BTC to be sold off; only when there are concerns about the credit system itself do their safe haven properties simultaneously come into play.
3. Although capital flows in simultaneously, it is not the same pool of money
Capital flowing into gold ETFs often comes from traditional macro hedging institutions; capital flowing into BTC ETFs comes from institutions allocating to alternative assets. The trading goals and stop-loss thresholds of these two types of capital are completely different, leading to situations where ETFs are both increasing positions but intraday price movements diverge.
✅ Practical takeaways
Stop rigidly thinking "if gold rises, BTC must rise."
- Strong nonfarm payroll data and rising rate hike expectations likely put pressure on both gold and BTC;
- Weak nonfarm data and rising expectations of rate cuts provide a basis for recovery in both;
- During intermediate consolidation phases, divergence is likely, with one holding up and the other lagging.
Gold is a defensive store-of-value tool; BTC is an alternative asset with risk attributes. They can complement each other in a portfolio but should not be analyzed with the same logic.
$BTC🚨 TONIGHT’S $BTC PUMP ISN’T ABOUT WAR — THE MARKET IS TELLING US SOMETHING BIGGER.
I went back and checked the information behind tonight’s move. At first glance, it looks like a risk-off rotation, with Bitcoin breaking higher as the market treats it like “digital gold.”💎
But there’s one problem with that narrative:
Gold didn’t see the same kind of capital flow. 💵
So I’m not convinced this pump is simply because of the so-called “digital gold” trade. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
After Jackson Hole, the hawkish tone released by Walsh has already rewritten the market's pricing for September interest rates. Now, the intensive U.S. employment reports have become the key testing ground to verify his policy stance.
The nonfarm payrolls, the most important employment report before the FOMC meeting, will directly determine whether the expectations for rate hikes will further intensify.
If the employment data is strong, it means the labor market remains hot, making it harder for inflation to fall, which will reinforce the trading logic for a September rate hike. Risk assets including BTC, ETH will face significant pressure.
Conversely, if employment data weakens, it will offset Walsh's previously hawkish statements, cooling rate hike expectations and giving crypto assets a chance to breathe and rebound.
The current market situation is very delicate.
ETF institutional funds are still flowing in, providing underlying support to the market, but macro-level uncertainties hang overhead. Volatility will significantly increase around the data release, with spikes and stop-loss sweeps becoming the norm.
Do not heavily bet on the outcome in advance.
Spot holdings can continue to patiently hold favored assets; contracts must reduce positions, avoid one-sided bets during the data release phase, and wait for a clear market structure before making the next move.
$BTC $ETH
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Reality often contradicts expectations: TVL hits new highs, yet tokens continue to decline.
Take three examples: AAVE, COMP, $UNI. DefiLlama shows the ecosystem TVL steadily rising, but token price elasticity is far weaker than that of public chain altcoins. TheBlock's report reveals the truth: a large portion of current TVL comes from stablecoin deposits, not native token staking; rising TVL does not equal increased token demand.
AAVE platform's stablecoin proportion keeps increasing; COMP protocol revenue is recovering, but token unlocks continue to release selling pressure; UNI has decent trading volume, but the protocol's fee capture ability is relatively weak.
When evaluating DeFi projects, prioritize "protocol's real revenue and native token proportion of TVL" rather than just total locked value. TVL can be inflated by stablecoins, which is a common pitfall.
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 I am the mid-term intelligence guy!
Today let's talk about $ZEC. The most critical point in this round is not whether it surges to 800 or 880.
Previously, it dropped from just above 500 USD all the way up close to 880 USD$, then retraced about 10%, which is a normal short-term shakeout.
But what changes the valuation logic in my eyes is that Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) has officially started trading on NYSE Arca, holding about 393,000 ZEC and over 260 million USD.
The biggest hurdle for privacy coins used to be that traditional funds couldn't enter compliantly, and institutions would leave after a glance. Now ZCSH has torn open this door—Wall Street accounts can directly buy ZEC exposure without touching private keys or worrying about compliance gray areas. This step is worth much more than a new price high.
Of course, short-term shakeouts will still happen; futures open interest once neared 1.8 billion USD, leverage is not low, so spikes are inevitable.
But as long as this pullback doesn't break the trend, my mid-term view remains unchanged: ZEC's table has shifted from an internal crypto gamble to a venue where Wall Street can sit down.
$BTC
$ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 If an interest rate hike is chosen in September, where will Bitcoin's first wave drop to?
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in September is around 57%, with Jackson Hole releasing a strong hawkish statement. It is important to distinguish: the market has already priced in part of the rate hike expectations in advance; the real impact comes from two things: the official announcement of the rate hike + the press conference continuing to be hawkish, rather than just the rate hike itself.
🔻Scenario: 25bp rate hike in September combined with a hawkish speech
This would be a negative surprise, causing risk assets to collectively come under pressure. BTC's first wave of decline has three target levels:
1. First pullback: 75000‑76000
This is the primary test zone for the first wave, where a large number of long liquidation pools are concentrated. It is also the recent buyback range after multiple retests. ETF spot funds will likely start to support here.
If strong buying supports this level, there could be a quick rebound after a brief dip, maintaining a large range of oscillation.
2. Second target: 72000‑73000
If the 75000 support is broken with heavy volume, leveraged longs will be liquidated in a chain reaction, pushing the price to this level. This is an important mid-term defense zone for the long structure and a key concentration area of chips in this rally.
A drop here means the high-level oscillation pattern of this round is officially broken, with altcoins and ETH likely to fall significantly more than BTC.
3. Extreme dip: around 70000
This would only occur if there is a rate hike + continued strong hawkish guidance, combined with a geopolitical black swan event, making this a low-probability scenario.
✅If there is a rate hike but the press conference is neutral
The rate hike is implemented, but Jackson Hole signals no further hawkish tightening, implying no certainty of more hikes.
The negative impact is priced in as "sell the expectation, buy the fact," so BTC will likely only experience a short-term pulse dip to 76000‑77000, then quickly rebound to the original 77000‑80000 range, avoiding a deep decline.
🧱The dual reality: no mindless one-way crash
- Suppression: Rate hikes raise real interest rates, pressuring the valuation of interest-free assets like BTC, and contract longs will be liquidated.
- Support: The US spot BTC ETF continues to see net inflows, with real institutional spot buying, limiting the downside and making an endless one-way crash unlikely.
Practical reminder:
Do not short in advance betting on a rate hike. Often, when expectations are fully priced in, the actual event results in the negative impact being fully absorbed.
Focus on market reaction after the event, not just the decision text. Spot base positions can be retained; during the rate hike window, reduce contract positions as spikes can be very aggressive.
$BTC#OKXPlanetTectonic 这次事故的核心，并不是攻击者拿到了某个管理员私钥。公开信息显示，攻击者在约 20 分钟内把流动性较薄的 TONIC 推高约 100 倍，再把这些被临时抬高估值的代币作为抵押品，尝试借出约 7400 万美元的真实资产。最终约 600 万美元离开 Cronos，其余大部分资金被留在链上。 借贷协议的基本逻辑是“抵押品价值 × 抵押率 = 可借额度”。问题在于，链上能证明你确实持有多少代币，却不能自动证明这些代币能按当前报价卖出。如果一个交易很浅的市场被短时间拉高，而协议又直接采用这个价格，攻击者得到的不是账面利润，而是一张可以兑换高流动性资产的借款额度。 所以价格源不能脱离市场深度单独设计。多源报价和时间加权平均只能减少单点操纵；抵押率、借款上限、可执行流动性和价格偏离熔断必须一起工作。新抵押品或薄流动性资产还应该进入隔离模式，避免一个市场的异常估值抽干整个资金池。 钱包侧也有边界。它可以提示协议暂停、价格短时剧烈偏离、抵押品流动性不足，或者一次借款正在接近市场上限；但它无法替一个借贷协议证明预言机一定正确。签名风险解决的是“你是否同意这次调用”，协议风险解决的是“这次调[Bitcoin Outlook for Next Week and Mid-Term] It's still too early to confirm a bull market, but opportunities come from the dips! Bull market confirmation condition: If it breaks through and holds above the previous cycle peak at 83,000, consider the bear market bottom confirmed and the bull market arriving early. Before confirmation, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic. However, opportunities also come from the dips; regardless of whether the bull market arrives, this does not affect the bottom-fishing strategy. Responding is more important than predicting. Next movement forecast and response strategy: End of August: Bitcoin falls into the 20-day short cycle bottom, suppressed by the 78,000-80,000 resistance zone, leading to an adjustment. It may subsequently rebound to form a 20-day short cycle peak in early September. See Figure 1. Technically, Bitcoin is currently approaching the 4-hour pitchfork red median resistance at 79,500. If it reaches here, a small pullback is expected. See Figure 2. Mid-September: Bitcoin adjusts to the 40-day short cycle bottom. If it falls to around 75,500 or other lower support levels, consider a rebound. Mid-October 80-day cycle bottom / late this year to early next year major bottom: This is a larger cycle bottom, expected to have a deeper correction. If it falls to the previously mentioned very cheap zone, it will be an excellent bottom-fishing opportunity. See Figure 3. Currently, it is in the cheap zone. Ideally, Bitcoin falls to around 55,000; then we will see if the market offers opportunities later. On the macro side, on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh made statements about interest rates and inflation, causing significant market volatility. Although the tone was hawkish, given weak US nonfarm payroll data and the election background, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in the short term is low, and interest rate policy is likely to remain accommodative. Therefore, whether gold, silver, or Bitcoin, the probability of an immediate deep correction is low; short term is more about consolidation and accumulation. In terms of operations, Bitcoin bought at the very cheap zone of 63,000 is still held. The short position at 78,200 has partially moved to take profit and continues with a stop loss at 82,500. Citibank's latest research report provides an important forecast: the Reserve Bank of India may start raising interest rates in the second half of fiscal year 2027, with a cumulative increase of 50-75 basis points. As a major emerging economy globally, India is forced to shift toward tightening due to the real pressure of imported inflation.
Over 80% of India's crude oil is imported. Recently, conflicts in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude oil prices to stabilize at $90, and the continuous rise in oil prices directly exacerbates domestic inflation. The rupee exchange rate is under pressure, and the dual risks are forcing a policy shift. Although current inflation remains within a tolerable range of 2-6%, ongoing disturbances in energy and food prices pose a risk of further inflation increases. The market has already begun pricing in the possibility of precautionary rate hikes.
Emerging markets collectively tightening monetary policy is a significant signal globally at present. The rise in long-term bond yields in the US and Japan has already begun, and now India is entering a potential rate hike cycle. Global liquidity contraction is no longer a solo act by the United States.
Regional rate hikes will produce spillover effects. Rising local bond yields will attract some funds remaining in risk markets to return to fixed income. Reflecting on the crypto market, BTC and ETH will indirectly bear the pressure of global liquidity tightening; while coins like TRUMP, which heavily rely on speculative enthusiasm, will be more sensitive to changes in the global funding environment. Even consumer blue-chip KO Coca-Cola, under a generally rising global interest rate environment, will see its valuation suppressed by discount rates. No matter how strong the fundamentals, it is difficult to fully resist the macro tide.Friends, there's a big event today — WLFI has officially launched on the mainnet for claiming and trading. But I don't plan to take action today; here are a few observations: 1. Unlock pressure test: Early supporters from the first two rounds can unlock 20% today. Although this is milder than the previously rumored "full unlock," with a price of $0.05 compared to a cost of $0.015, early users still have a 3x profit, so selling pressure is real. 2. Beware of huge loss cases: AI Financial has a paper loss of $850 million. Will this company take some actions to stop losses? Uncertain, but this is a risk factor. 3. Justin Sun's criticism is not baseless: Pledging 5 billion tokens to borrow 75 million stablecoins — this operation is called "circular leverage" in traditional finance and "fancy cash-out" in crypto. Where the liquidity went is worth pondering. There may be short-term trading opportunities, but fundamental recovery will take time. I will wait until the first wave of sell-offs passes and on-chain data becomes clear before making a judgment. Let's discuss in the comments: Are you planning to act today or just watch?This ticking bomb on September 4th can't be avoided: Nonfarm payrolls + options expiration, will $BTC face a double whammy or a double tap?
The biggest bomb this week isn't the Fed, but Friday (9/4) US August nonfarm payrolls, which directly determine whether there will be a rate hike in September.
Consensus expects an increase of 55,000 to 58,000 jobs, unemployment rate at 4.1%. Looks ordinary? But July's report shocked the market with a surprise drop of 23,000, causing a cold sweat.
More importantly, this is the last nonfarm payroll report before the Fed meeting on 9/15-16. After the hawkish stance from Waller, this data is the final weight on the scale.
If weaker than expected → rate cut expectations resurge → dollar softens, BTC surges to 80,000;
If stronger than expected → rate hike probability maxes out → risk assets suffer.
Historically, when nonfarm payrolls deviate from consensus, BTC can swing 3% to 5% within hours. Coupled with the September quarterly options expiration (quadruple witching day approaching), Deribit has tens of billions in notional CALL positions at 80,000 to 100,000 USD, with bulls and bears set for a showdown around expiration.
My advice: Don't heavily bet on direction this week, save your bullets for after 9/4. #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 NVIDIA just invested $3.5 billion in MediaTek, and it’s not a simple stock purchase but a subscription to convertible bonds.
On the surface, it looks like an investment in MediaTek, but in reality, it’s more like NVIDIA spending money to expand its AI ecosystem.
In the future, MediaTek can use NVLink Fusion to directly connect its self-developed CPUs, XPUs, and AI chips to NVIDIA’s data center systems. Simply put: customers can design their own chips, but they will ultimately run on the "highway" built by NVIDIA.
This is the most important aspect of this deal.
In the past, NVIDIA mainly built its advantage through GPUs, but now it is starting to spread NVLink, memory, software, and interconnect standards across the entire AI hardware industry chain. MediaTek is responsible for chip design capabilities, NVIDIA provides the ecosystem and connection standards, and both sides will continue to work on AI PCs and smart cars.
However, there is controversy here.
NVIDIA has recently been continuously investing in AI industry chain companies, and the market is beginning to worry about a kind of "circular financing": NVIDIA first invests in ecosystem partners, partners then use NVIDIA technology, and ultimately this reinforces NVIDIA’s revenue. Jensen Huang explicitly denies this is a circular transaction, but this kind of capital relationship will increasingly warrant close attention.
Two scenarios are very clear.
If MediaTek really uses NVLink to enter data center customized AI chips, NVIDIA will no longer be just the GPU overlord but will be turning the entire AI infrastructure standard into its own ecosystem.
If these huge investments are mainly capital-driven cooperation without bringing real end-user demand, the market will sooner or later question whether AI capital expenditures are truly justified.Yesterday I was still waiting for Dell to take over, and today that baton has already hit my account.
As soon as Dell's earnings report came out, the market didn't just look at "whether AI server orders are many or not," but directly chased after profit margins and cash flow, asking: With sales so strong, are they actually making money?
This question immediately caused the AI hardware chain to start diverging.
Today I shorted $MINIMAX a bit first, took some profit and ran, didn’t dare to hold on. The real comfort is $SNDK, with a short position near 1558, thanks to Dell, the current unrealized profit rate has exceeded 100%.
Of course, it’s not that SanDisk’s stock price dropped by half, but 75x leverage magnified less than 2% fluctuations. Watching the numbers is satisfying, but I know clearly that if it rebounds a bit, the profits can instantly be given back.
Next up are AVGO and SNOW.
Broadcom needs to prove that custom chips and network equipment can really make money; Snowflake needs to prove that AI isn’t just burning money, and enterprise customers are willing to pay for usage and subscriptions.
My current thinking is simple: if earnings beat expectations but the stock doesn’t rise, look for opportunities to short; if earnings and guidance both rise and the pullback can hold, then consider going long.
This round of earnings reports is no longer about who can tell the AI story, but who can turn the story into real money.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK 3.2 billion funds are pouring in, yet the market is hesitant. What is missing in this round of rally?
Currently, BTC is quoted at $78,520, up slightly by 0.67% in 24 hours.
ETH is at $2,447, slightly down by 0.28%; SOL at $103.09, down 1.44%; HYPE at $81.27, also weakening by 2.39%, and OKB remains fluctuating around $112.
The total market capitalization of the overall crypto market is about $2.63 trillion.
BTC’s cumulative increase in August has exceeded 30%, but the secondary market trading activity remains sluggish. The average trading volume on mainstream platforms has shrunk by nearly 70% compared to before, staying at a three-year low range.
It is clear that the inflow of funds this time is very concentrated, mostly flowing into ETF channels. Institutional investors are buying over-the-counter, but ordinary traders have not returned to the market on a large scale, so it is not a comprehensive capital inflow.
The sector is also fragmented internally. Modular blockchains and DeFAI have shown relative resilience, recording gains of 5.17% and 3.32% respectively; in contrast, DeFi and AI Agents sectors are under pressure, falling by 0.88% and 3.35% respectively. Hotspots rotate quickly, and sustainability is not ideal.
Simply put, the buying power brought by institutions can support the market’s bottom line. But relying solely on this part of the force, it is difficult to unilaterally push the market to continue rising. To achieve further upward momentum, the trading sentiment in the secondary market needs to genuinely warm up to cooperate.Bitcoin: Setting aside liquidations and ETFs, let's talk about the often overlooked realities behind the market
Every time the market experiences a decent rebound, discussions in the community fall into a fixed pattern: everyone eagerly talks about liquidation amounts, daily ETF inflows and outflows, chasing various short-term news to predict the next big surge or drop. But many overlook one thing: short-term indicators can only explain what has already happened in the market, but they rarely tell us where the market is headed next. Let's step away from these frequently repeated data points and look at the current Bitcoin market from a different perspective.
There is an interesting phenomenon in the market now: prices are rising, but the disagreements within the market have not disappeared with the rise; instead, they have grown larger. Some participants, encouraged by the rebound profits, start to amplify expectations, directly defining the phase rebound as the full start of a new bull market; others who have experienced several bull and bear cycles remain vigilant, constantly waiting for a correction. Both viewpoints have supporting arguments, and the community is divided, making consensus difficult.
Many traders make the mistake of equating "their own wishes" with "what the market will actually do." Bulls actively collect all positive news and automatically ignore hidden risk signals in the market; bears repeatedly amplify negative news, disregarding the underlying support of the chips. When we browse social platforms and communities, most content is filtered opinions, only receiving information that aligns with our own views, gradually forming a cognitive closed loop and misjudging the true market picture.
Setting aside the over-discussed contract liquidation data, let's look at a thought-provoking change on-chain: the stock of Bitcoin held on exchanges has remained at multi-year lows. Simply put, the total amount of spot chips available for immediate trading and selling in the market has decreased. This does not mean the price can only rise, but it changes the market's operational characteristics.
After circulating chips decrease, two situations arise. If off-exchange funds are willing to enter, it doesn't take huge capital to push prices significantly higher; conversely, if the market collectively wants to sell, with limited bids to absorb, the decline speed will also be very rapid. This explains why the current market sees both sharp rises and corrections, with increasingly frequent spikes. The shrinking supply of chips amplifies the market's two-way volatility.
Here we must distinguish two completely different behavioral logics of holders.
One group is short-term traders: when the price rises above their cost, any slight market disturbance prompts them to transfer coins to exchanges to take profits and secure gains. This portion of chips represents the market's floating selling pressure.
The other group is long-term holders: after this rebound, they already have substantial unrealized profits but still choose not to sell. Their trading logic does not focus on price fluctuations of a few thousand or tens of thousands of dollars but looks at multi-year cycles and will not change their holding plans due to a single rebound.
The market now is essentially a contest between these two forces. Short-term profit takers want to cash out, while long-term funds choose to hold. The market's direction depends on which force prevails.
If short-term profit-taking strengthens continuously and new off-exchange funds fail to keep up, the market will enter a consolidation phase; if incremental funds continue to enter to absorb selling chips, the market has a chance to expand further. Don't jump to conclusions based on a single data point; observe the power balance behind chip competition.
On the macro level, many people habitually treat Bitcoin simply as a speculative token, but now its correlation with global major asset classes is deepening. U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the dollar genuinely affect institutions' risk asset choices.
A realistic situation is that Bitcoin's identity is contradictory. Sometimes it acts as a risk hedge, moving in sync with gold; but during many volatile phases, it follows risk assets like U.S. stocks, rising and falling together. It does not play a fixed role but switches attributes according to the current market environment.
Many people have a fixed mindset, believing "Bitcoin is definitely a safe-haven asset," and when U.S. stocks plunge, they expect Bitcoin to hold up against the trend, but reality often disappoints. We cannot apply a fixed label to a market that constantly changes; we must learn to observe which logic it is currently following.
Having discussed the market, let's talk about the common trading dilemmas ordinary people face, which ultimately determine profits and losses even more than candlestick charts.
When the market surges, everywhere you see screenshots of profits, creating the illusion that everyone around is making money except yourself. Under this atmosphere, fear of missing out grows, and many who were originally cautious end up rushing in. What we don't see is that many profit screenshots are only temporary unrealized gains; when the market corrects slightly, many profits quickly evaporate or even turn into losses. Unrealized profits do not equal realized gains—this is an eternal truth in crypto.
Another reality is that most people's attention is entirely focused on "predicting price movements," spending a lot of time guessing whether the price will rise or fall tomorrow, but rarely thinking about how to respond.
Predicting the market is extremely difficult; even experienced institutions cannot consistently and accurately predict every turning point. The real difference is not how many tops and bottoms you guess correctly but how you handle mistakes. When the price moves opposite to your expectation, do you have a plan to cut losses or reduce positions? When the market moves in your favor, do you know when to take profits in batches?
Prediction is only a reference for entry; response is the core of trading. Many people put the cart before the horse, focusing on prediction while neglecting risk management.
The future market will not be just "a continuous surge" or "a direct crash." A long period of wide-range consolidation is actually a highly probable scenario. After a rise, profit-taking needs to be digested, bulls and bears exchange views, and the market needs time to absorb the divergences accumulated during the rapid rise. Consolidation is the most frustrating market; it does not give you clear results but constantly tests your patience with back-and-forth moves.
Here are practical thoughts for friends with different positions.
For spot holders: don't obsess over selling at the highest point; the highest point only lasts a moment. If you have substantial unrealized profits, you can take partial profits in batches and keep a base position to follow the market. Don't fantasize about clearing your position all at once to capture the entire move, nor stubbornly hold without any adjustment. Set your own acceptable observation points; if those are defended, continue holding; if effectively broken, prepare to reduce positions.
$BTC $ETH Everything is rising, but you're losing? The September crypto market script is not what you think.
BTC (Bitcoin) stood above $79,000 today, up 24% last week, marking the largest weekly gain in three years. The U.S. Treasury plans to double its long-term bond buybacks, causing money to flow back into risk assets. Coupled with a $1.92 billion net inflow into ETFs this week, this rally is purely supported by macro liquidity. However, the key test remains—the 365-day moving average at $83,000 has not been broken, so the bull market cannot be officially confirmed. Whether it can hold above $80,000 in September depends on what the Federal Reserve Chair says over the weekend.
Ethereum (ETH) is around $2,470 today, having rebounded 34% in August, but it clearly can't keep up with BTC's pace—BTC's market dominance is rising while Ethereum's share is declining. The "Glamsterdam" testnet upgrade is scheduled for September 28, aiming to cut fees by nearly 80%. While this is positive, funds currently favor BTC more, so ETH's short-term outlook still depends on BTC's performance.
$BTC $ETH #US-Iran clash again, oil tanker blocked, Brent crude returns to $90
The boss has something to say
US-Iran relations have moved from the negotiation table back to the sea. After the US military struck Iranian military facilities, Iran retaliated by attacking the US base in Jordan and intercepted a Saudi oil tanker. Brent crude has returned to $90.
The US signed cooperation agreements for 17 oil fields with Venezuela, but this cannot immediately fill the gap left by the Strait of Hormuz. $BTC $ETH $SOL
As oil prices rise further, inflation expectations and US Treasury yields are under pressure, making risk assets generally bearish.
BTC is fluctuating around 77,000-79,000, continuing to hold short positions on ZEC. No long positions will be taken until the direction becomes clear.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.#ZHIPU
Yesterday's earnings report showed a large loss,
but revenue nearly quadrupled, API calls surged, paying users increased rapidly, and with the deployment of 100,000 domestic cards' computing power, it was an unexpectedly positive factor.
The stock opened sharply up to 160 today,
then pulled back to around 150.
The morning rally was driven by sentiment.
Currently, the outlook is still quite bearish.
If any brothers shorted at 160, they should be making a good profit now.
I have to say, I'm quite envious I am Brother Ci, and this week's data is the real judge. ADP on Wednesday, Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, plus JOLTS and initial jobless claims, four employment reports clustered together, directly deciding whether to raise rates in September.
Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add 58,000 to 80,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%. July's Nonfarm was down 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. If August data continues to weaken, rate hike expectations will be extinguished. If the rebound exceeds expectations, Waller's hawkish stance will have data support.
Waller made it very clear at Jackson Hole: inflation is still too high, overall financial conditions are far from restrictive, and the labor market is still in a state of full employment. If inflation cannot "clearly and quickly enough" return to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do." The probability of a rate hike in September has already jumped from 35% to 65%, and the two-year Treasury yield has jumped 12 basis points. The market is already pricing in a rate hike, now waiting for data to confirm.
BTC is fluctuating around 77,600, with 80,000 turning from support into resistance. Strong employment data solidifies rate hike expectations, and BTC continues to be under pressure. Weak employment data cools rate hike expectations, giving BTC a chance to retest 80,000. Don't bet on the data; wait for it to land before making a move. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Brother Ci is done speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Known as the "Commander-in-Chief of Wall Street's Bond Bulls," Lacy Hunt has officially shifted from being bullish on U.S. Treasuries for 40 years to bearish on long-term bonds. The Hoisington fund, where he serves, has drastically reduced its portfolio duration from about 21 years in September last year to less than 1 year in June this year, converting almost all long-term bond positions into cash. The core logic is that the global deflation dividend has ended; deglobalization, demographic shifts, and massive fiscal deficits collectively push inflation higher, fundamentally changing the long-term bond investment environment.
Meanwhile, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds hit 2.990% intraday, marking the highest level in nearly 30 years since October 1996. The sharp drop in Japanese bonds is driven by two main factors: first, the market pricing in an earlier-than-expected rate hike by the Bank of Japan; second, the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields causing spillover effects, widening the U.S.-Japan interest rate spread and triggering a global capital reallocation, resulting in cross-market resonance between the U.S. and Japanese bond markets.
The rise in the interest rate baseline suppresses global risk assets. Within the crypto market, differentiation is evident: mainstream large-cap coins like BTC and ETH show stronger resilience to shocks; whereas coins like DOGE, TRX, and TRUMP, which heavily rely on sentiment narratives, are particularly sensitive to liquidity tightening, amplifying volatility. Even consumer blue-chip KO Coca-Cola is not entirely immune—rising rates increase discount rates, suppressing valuations. Despite strong brand and cash flow, institutional disagreements and profit-taking at high levels still occur.
The valuation bubbles born in the low-interest-rate era are being gradually squeezed. Whether stocks, bonds, or crypto tokens, one cannot simply replicate old-cycle trading strategies.$BTC has dropped twice already, how many brothers are still holding on to the bull run?
I am actually more convinced this is a short squeeze:
1. Look at the 52-week moving average, the average price is 81,700; but the recent high was 81,500, not broken. This means it's still early to confirm a bull market.
2. Look at the macro situation, aside from Chuanzi's hype, the real useful info is the doubling of government bond repos. What kind of character is Chuanzi? Someone who was negotiating the night before but ready to fight early the next morning, not trustworthy.
3. But maybe everyone got too excited. Because the fear and greed index rose from extreme fear at 22 to extreme greed at 76; and since ETF net inflows haven't surpassed June's net outflows, the whole network is shouting bull market return.
4. Of course, I don't recommend shorting because this is a short squeeze. Your short positions might become fuel to break through 82,000.
So I choose to take partial profits on $BTC spot for swing trading. If it rises to 86,000, then I was wrong, and I'll buy back at the high then. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 1. Macro Background: Hawkish Pressure at the Top, but Spot Buying Supports the Market
Brothers, let's first review the big picture. Last week, Powell (Warsh)'s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole directly smashed BTC from above $81,000. The probability of a September rate hike has already surged to 57%, and U.S. Treasury yields are also pushing higher — definitely not good news for risk assets.
But interestingly, BTC did not collapse. Bitfinex's analysis is crucial: the August rally was mainly driven by spot buying, not leveraged positions — open interest gradually increased but basis was restrained, and last week the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw nearly $1 billion in net inflows. What does this indicate? Institutions are bottom-fishing, not retail FOMO.
In summary of the macro: rate hike expectations are pressing down, but ETF funds are providing support, with bulls and bears in a tense standoff.
---
2. BTC: Tug-of-War Between 78K-79K, Direction Choice Approaching
Market snapshot:
BTC is currently trading in the $78,700-$79,000 range, with a daily gain of about 1.4%, and a 24-hour volatility range of $77,387-$79,327. It briefly broke above $79,000 overnight but failed to hold — indicating significant selling pressure above 79K.
Key levels:
· Resistance above: 79,170-79,270 (short-term upper limit), 79,400-80,000 (psychological barrier), 81,000 (previous high dense lock-up zone)
· Support below: 77,300-77,400 (intraday low area), 77,020 (primary support), 76,🚨 BITCOIN’S NEXT BIG MOVE MAY DEPEND ON ONE NUMBER.
$BTC is holding around $78K, but the real battle could be decided by Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
Bitcoin had a powerful August, gaining roughly 23%, but the rejection above $80K shows sellers are still defending that zone.
Now September starts with a major macro test.
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — $77K support | $79.4K–$80.8K resistance
🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength
🟣 $SOL — highly sensitive to liquidity.
#DailyOrbit $BTC is still at a high level
Boldly short
The current rate hike expectations are ridiculously high
Non-farm payroll data will most likely be bearish for crypto
There’s no reason not to short
But be sure to set take profit and stop loss
This time take profit is set at 76800
Stop loss is set at 79000
The cost-performance ratio is quite high
This position was opened near 78250
Now above 78300
Short-term actually hasn’t made a profit yet
But the reason I dare to short is not guessing the top
It’s because the market’s pricing for a September rate hike has already risen to about 65%
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to around 4.78%
High interest rates naturally put pressure on high-volatility assets
If non-farm payrolls continue to be strong this week
The rate cut fantasy will take another hit
$XAUT is actually worth watching
After rate hike expectations heated up, gold has already pulled back
Indicating that high yields are also pressuring interest-free assets
If gold continues to weaken while US Treasuries stay strong
Risk assets will have a hard time performing comfortably
I’m not bearish on $SNDK’s fundamentals
AI data centers are still driving up storage demand
The company’s next quarter revenue guidance is also strong
And it plans to continue heavy expansion with Kioxia
So if it really drops
I’d rather see it as a pullback
Not shorting along with the crypto crowd
If $BTC reaches 79000 this time, I admit I’m wrong
At 76800 I’ll take profit
#BTC high-level consolidation, stronger linkage with gold
#Employment data densely released, Walsh’s policy stance tested
#Earnings observer: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns tested again Strategy increased its holdings again after more than two months.
On August 31, the 8-K filing disclosed: from August 24 to 30, 4,603 BTC were purchased at an average price of $80,318, with a total investment of $369.7 million.
Once the news broke, Strategy's stock price closed up 4.42% that day.
Many only focus on “bought 4,603 BTC.” But as an observer tracking this company for three years, I noticed three more noteworthy details.
/ Detail One: Saylor's “Preview”
On Sunday, August 30, Saylor posted a tweet on X with just three words—“We're Back”—along with a company Bitcoin holding "orange dot" accumulation chart.
The next day, Monday, the 8-K filing disclosed the increase.
This is no coincidence.
In recent months, Saylor has been very low-key. The last time Strategy declared a Bitcoin purchase was June 22. There was a ten-week gap in between.
Then suddenly he tweeted on Sunday, and the filing came out Monday.
What does this mean?
This was not a spur-of-the-moment decision. It was pre-planned.
Saylor is managing market expectations via social media. He knew there would be an announcement Monday, so he gave the market a signal 24 hours in advance—"We're coming back."
This is not the first time. Over the past three years, before every major move, Saylor has shown a similar "preview" pattern. Sunday tweets let the market digest the info early, so the stock price can stabilize or even rise when Monday's announcement comes.
One detail reveals all intentions: he’s not telling the market "I bought," he’s telling the market "I’m going to buy."
/ Detail Two: Change in Funding Source
This is the easiest to overlook but most worth digging into.
This purchase was fully funded by the MSTR stock ATM program. During the same period, Strategy sold 4.5314 million shares of MSTR common stock via ATM, raising about $602.8 million net.
In 2024, Strategy used zero-coupon convertible bonds.
For most of 2025, they also used convertible bonds and preferred stock financing.
Now? Common stock issuance.
What’s the difference?
Convertible bonds: low or zero interest, almost no equity dilution, a "smart money" play.
Common stock issuance: directly dilutes existing shareholders, higher financing cost.
Strategy clearly has cheaper financing options but chose the more expensive one.
What does this imply?
It suggests the convertible bond market may have closed its doors to Strategy or the terms are no longer favorable. It also means Strategy’s confidence in the current price is strong enough to justify higher funding costs.
$370 million is not a small amount. They could have waited for a better time or cheaper financing. But they didn’t.
/ Detail Three: Purchase Price Higher Than Average but Lower Than May
This purchase’s average price was $80,318.
In May, it was about $80,340.
About $22 cheaper than May.
More subtle is the change in overall holding average price: as of May 10, the average holding price was about $75,540. After this purchase, the overall average holding price dropped to $75,412.
Buying at a higher price actually lowered the overall average?
Because the May purchase was larger—$2 billion bought 24,869 BTC. Larger volume has a bigger impact on average price. This $370 million purchase is relatively small for the year.
What does this indicate?
Strategy is not passively "dollar-cost averaging." They are actively timing.
Buying at $80,318, higher than the overall average of $75,412, shows management has a clear margin of safety judgment at the current price.
They are not "buying blindly." They are "calculating their buys."
/ Understanding these three details, you realize—
This is not a simple purchase.
It is a carefully calculated strategic deployment.
Previewing the market 24 hours in advance → buying even with more expensive financing → adding to positions despite price being above the overall average.
Every step tells the market one thing:
Strategy’s confidence in Bitcoin has not wavered despite the ten-week gap.
On the contrary—they are continuing the five-year strategy with more caution and precise timing.
Many saw Strategy not buying for ten weeks and said "Saylor chickened out" or "Strategy is liquidating."
When Bitcoin dropped to $58,500 in June, Strategy was forced to sell to meet financial obligations, selling about $544 million in three tranches over the summer. The market mocked: "See, the 'never sell' claim is a lie."
Then?
On August 21, Bitcoin surged over 23% in one day, returning near $79,000. Strategy’s holdings’ market value again exceeded cost.
On August 31, they came back.
Forced to sell when others panicked, decisive buying when others hesitated.
This is not "chickening out." This is a whale holding 845,050 BTC with a total cost of $63.73 billion managing its balance sheet.
True long-termism is not about never selling. It’s about not giving up at the wrong time.
Someone asked me: "Isn’t $80,318 expensive to buy?"
I said: "You think it’s expensive because you look at the price. Saylor looks at the position."
Five years ago when he bought BTC, everyone said it was expensive.
Looking back now?
$BTC $xSTRC $MSTR #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 On August 31, Strategy submitted an 8-K filing to the SEC — last week (August 24 to 30), it spent $369.7 million to buy 4,603 bitcoins at an average price of about $80,318.
As of August 30, the company’s total holdings reached 845,050 bitcoins, with a total cost of about $63.73 billion and an average cost of $75,412.
After the news was released, MSTR closed up 4.42% on Monday at $132.94.
But that’s not the main point.
The key point is — this is Strategy’s first purchase in over two months. The previous one was from June 15 to 21, buying only 520 coins.
From the frenzy buying at the start of the year to near halt in June, then restarting at the end of August — behind this lies a complete "opportunistic allocation" logic.
📊 2026 Accumulation Timeline: One chart to understand the rhythm changes
January: Bought about $2.16 billion worth of BTC at an average price of about $95,284.
April: Purchased 34,164 BTC for about $2 billion — the largest single purchase of the year.
May 11-17: Bought 24,869 BTC for about $2.01 billion, averaging about $80,985 per coin.
June 15-21: Bought only 520 BTC — almost symbolic.
July: No accumulation.
August 24-30: Bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million, averaging $80,318.
In plain language:
From the start of the year to May — high frequency and large amounts, almost weekly buying.
June to July — almost stopped. 520 coins in June, zero in July.
End of August — volume restart. 4,603 coins, not as wild as early in the year, but the signal is far more important than the number itself.
🤔 Why this change?
First, the financing model changed.
In 2024, Strategy relied on zero-coupon convertible bonds — borrowing money without interest amid abundant market liquidity.
In 2026, that path is no longer viable. Financing shifted to high-cost preferred shares plus dilutive ATM stock issuance.
What does this mean? Borrowing became more expensive, and issuing stock dilutes existing shareholders. Strategy can no longer buy recklessly like in 2024 without worsening the bitcoin per share ratio.
Second, they are waiting on price.
JPMorgan analysis points out that Strategy’s large purchases occurred when BTC was below its average cost — reflecting an "opportunistic" allocation strategy.
This time, the $80,318 purchase price is above the company’s overall average cost of $75,412.
What does this imply?
Management believes the current price level has a clear margin of safety — it’s not passive dollar-cost averaging, but an active judgment.
Third, they are waiting for the book to turn positive.
In late August, BTC rebounded near $80,000, and the book value of Strategy’s over 840,000 BTC holdings turned positive for the first time.
Only with unrealized gains can they confidently continue to add positions. This is not faith, it’s financial discipline.
💊 The real meaning of $369.7 million
$369.7 million — in Strategy’s 2026 accumulation profile, this number is relatively low for the year.
Compared to $2.16 billion in January, it’s a fraction.
Compared to $2 billion in April, it’s a fraction.
Compared to $2 billion in May, still a fraction.
But compared to 520 coins in June — the attitude has clearly turned positive.
What does this show? The company is preserving ammunition. $369.7 million doesn’t mean they’re out of money, but they don’t want to spend it all at once.
They are waiting for lower prices or better financing windows.
This is a company that has learned "timing."
Strategy in 2026 is no longer the 2021 frenzy machine that bought regardless of price.
It has become a careful, opportunistic buyer who acts only when the timing is right.
January: dared to buy $2.1 billion at $95,000.
June: only 520 coins at $60,000.
August: $369.7 million at $80,000.
Same company, same CEO, completely different operational logic.
Why?
Because the market changed. Financing costs changed. Shareholder expectations changed.
Even the most steadfast bitcoin bulls are learning to "respect the price."
Some say: "$369.7 million is too little, is Strategy failing?"
Wrong. $369.7 million is not the end, it’s the start of a new round of positioning.
From $2 billion to 520 coins to $369.7 million — this accumulation profile sketches not retreat, but a mature company’s true understanding of "opportunity."
Anyone can go all in in a bull market.
Precise timing in a volatile market is the real skill.
$BTC $xSTRC $MSTR #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 🚨 BTC MAY BE DUE FOR A DEEPER PULLBACK
Bitcoin just ripped from $62.5K to $81.5K in a short period. After a move that aggressive, a deeper correction wouldn’t surprise me.
BTC has already been rejected from the highs and is now hovering around $78K. My first downside target is $76K. If that level breaks, I’m watching $72K–$70K next.
I opened a short around $77,960, with the position currently around $8,550.
For now, my thesis is simple: move. #DailyOrbit The Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, and Bitcoin's 26% gain may face a test. Bitcoin has risen about 26% in the past month, with one key underlying logic being the market's bet on a weaker dollar. However, recent signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh may pour cold water on this rally.
Walsh believes the era of "cheap money" is coming to an end. With accelerating economic growth and continued capital attraction in fields like artificial intelligence, rising demand for funds may keep interest rates high rather than continuing to decline.
The market has already started to react. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to about 5.26%, approaching a nearly 19-year high, and the 10-year yield also climbed to 4.76%. High interest rates mean holding cash and bonds can yield higher returns, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin, which does not generate interest.
Therefore, what the market really needs to be cautious about in September may not be short-term dollar fluctuations, but whether the Federal Reserve can maintain a high interest rate environment. If rate expectations continue to rise, Bitcoin's previous 26% gain may face greater downward pressure. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力 Strategy bought 4,603 Bitcoin for 370 million USD, the first BTC purchase since June 22 last year 🚨
Strategy purchased 4,603 BTC for 369.7 million USD, with an average price of 80,318 USD per Bitcoin. The company also increased its USD cash by 30 million USD and repurchased 151.8 million USD worth of STRC shares.
As of August 30, Strategy holds 845,050 BTC with a total purchase value of 63.73 billion USD (average price 75,412 USD/BTC), along with 6.71 billion USD in cash assets (USD). 💵
$BTC The current crypto market is in a high-level oscillation phase of "rapid rise in August followed by a digestion period in September," overall weak and not a continuation of a healthy bull market.
BTC is tugging between $77,000 and $79,000, having surged above $81,000 in August but failing to hold. The weekend rebound accompanied by a flattening spot CVD is a bear-covering rebound rather than anactive spot market attack. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults BTC rose nearly 24% in August, why did it leave gold and US stocks behind?
The biggest winner in August was neither gold nor the Nasdaq driven by Nvidia, but BTC.
BTC rose about 24% in a single month, gold rose about 9%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq only about 3% and 4% respectively.
Three forces combined behind this rally.
First, the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, and the market began trading "lower yields, weaker dollar," benefiting both BTC and gold from currency depreciation trades. Second, large inflows reappeared in the US spot BTC ETF, with institutional buying returning. Third, heavy short positions earlier meant that once the price broke through, a short squeeze further amplified the gains.
But BTC outperforming gold indicates the market is trading more than just a safe haven.
Gold mainly benefits from central bank buying, US dollar credit, and geopolitical risks; BTC, in addition to these, also has layers of regulatory improvements, ETF funds, and high Beta characteristics.
When risk appetite returns, BTC’s elasticity is naturally greater than gold’s.
However, don’t just look at the impressive 24% monthly gain.
BTC still failed to firmly hold above $80,000 by the end of the month, while Warsh at Jackson Hole reiterated inflation concerns, raising market expectations for a September rate hike again. BTC is currently still fluctuating around $78,000.
So what September really needs to verify is:
If the dollar and US bond yields strengthen again, and BTC can still hold most of August’s gains, it would indicate this rally has shifted from a short squeeze to genuine capital support. $BTC Before the non-farm payrolls, $BTC is stuck at 78550! This week, first passing the ADP and ISM hurdles
Just checked the market, BTC is hovering around 78350, Ethereum at 2460. August saw a 23% gain, outperforming gold $XAU, but September's start is not easy.
After Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 34% to 60%. This Wednesday is ADP, Thursday ISM services, and Friday non-farm payrolls with expected new jobs of 58,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, one after another.
On such data-intensive days, the biggest mistake is to treat a single-day bullish candle as a trend that has already started. Now BTC hovering at 78350 is waiting for the non-farm payrolls to set the direction.
Focusing on the intermediate variable: if the 10-year US Treasury yield stays above 4.75, it indicates rate hike expectations remain. BTC pulling back to 77000 without breaking it is when to consider going long. If it stagnates near 80000, do not add positions.
Before Waller's speech on Thursday night, I will update the subsequent data and position changes internally.
#EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Warsh's policy stance under scrutiny $ETH Woke up in the middle of the night, sleep was instantly crushed by the big cookie 📈
BTC stands above 79,000, ETH returns to 2,500. I kept adding short positions from 63,500 up to 73,680, the more I added, the more it rose, suspecting I became fuel for the bulls 😮💨
"If I don’t get liquidated, it won’t drop, right?"
Is it really going to 100,000? Then I’ll keep adding shorts from 80,000, I don’t believe the high can hold for long.
Market logic👇
▫️ Macro: The probability of a rate hike by the Fed jumps to over 65%, a week packed with employment data is about to test the Fed’s stance
▫️ Correlation: BTC and gold move together in a "dollar depreciation trade," spot buying stubbornly resists hawkishness
▫️ Catalyst: Broadcom reports after market on 9/2, Dell takes over, AI returns get tested again, risk appetite can flip anytime
High-level consolidation + macro chain hammer, bears might just be waiting for a fuse 🎯
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 🟠 MARKET MORNING | BTC: After the rise, risks are being repriced. BTC still stands near $78,000 today, with a cumulative gain of nearly 25% in August. But entering September, the market's focus is no longer on "how much more it can rise," but on whether this round of rally can be sustained by sustained capital. MarketWatch +1 (1) Liquidity: Institutional demand remains, but marginal cooling US spot BTC ETF funds remain positive, but recent inflows have slowed significantly; Data from August 31 shows some ETFs saw slight net outflows. Farside Investors +1 (2) Macro: More uncertainty in September US 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.78%, oil prices broke through $91, and the market is once again concerned about inflation and interest rate pressures. For a highly volatile asset like BTC, this is not a risk to be ignored. Reuters (3) Is investing now risky? Yes, and I believe short-term risks are significantly higher than in early August. BTC has just experienced a sharp rise; chasing near the $80,000 resistance zone can easily lead to profit-taking. My strategy: don't chase the rally, invest in batches, and keep cash. If you already hold BTC, you can continue to monitor cash flow and key support; if you plan to open new positions, it's better to invest in batches rather than all at once. 👉 **Truly worth discussing: Is BTC currently in the bull market mid-market, or risk revaluation after the rally? **$BTC The most worthwhile thing to review in this round wasn't whether SK Hynix rose in the end, but how a logically logical low long position was gradually dragged into a margin defense battle by old positions, increased positions, and hesitation.
@多多不梭哈 At the open, he still held an uncomfortable $ZEC position, but was already waiting for Korea to open for Hynix. Two markets and two sets of logic occupied funds simultaneously, and he quickly found himself in a passive position: if ZEC didn't break even, he couldn't free up enough margin; When an opportunity arose for SK Hynix, he feared he wouldn't have a position. The problem wasn't just direction from the start, but that the account left no room for mistakes.
His benchmark assessment of SK Hynix is biased. The reason is not simply "semiconductors will rise," but rather that even if overall capital flows out of the Korean market, semiconductor and AI sectors will still support it; combined with Micron's strong bias, he believes SK Hynix has the potential to open higher and continue to rise. Therefore, before and after the open, he repeatedly emphasized that SK Hynix is not suitable for chasing shorts lightly; pullbacks actually feel more like a bullish watch zone.
But he repeatedly pointed out the most dangerous aspect of this trade: Hynix hadn't fully kept up with Micron before, and the Korean market opening itself could experience dramatic swings of three or four points, making it hard to set stop-losses. If it's too close, the opening needle sweeps away instantly; If it's too far, the risk of a single trade exceeds the account's tolerance. When a trade can't even clearly explain "what went wrong," the most reasonable approach isn't to cancel the stop-loss but to shrink the position so that even if it's wrong, it won't hurt much.
But the reality in the livestream was the opposite. After SK Hynix pulled back, he repeatedly replenished his position, saying "add more when it drops," but his account was burdened with heavier sharesThe liquidation distribution in the Bitcoin contract market is quietly changing the rhythm of the long-short game. Early this morning, the price quickly fell from $79,400 to around $76,900, then rapidly recovered by a thousand points, climbing back above $78,500. This intense fluctuation has caused open interest to continuously rise, with shorts increasing their positions noticeably faster than longs, resulting in more short liquidations accumulating above.
If the price rises another $2,000 from the current level, it will trigger about $1.05 billion in short liquidations; conversely, if it falls $2,000, it will activate about $620 million in long liquidations. Comparing the two, short positions clearly dominate, which sets the stage for a "short squeeze" scenario. However, it is worth noting that this morning's dip did not effectively flush out longs, but rather provided an opportunity to buy at lower levels.
In my view, the rapid rally seems somewhat rushed and lacks the support of sideways consolidation, casting doubt on its sustainability. This movement resembles institutions using the pretext of a short squeeze to actually distribute positions, so I would choose to reduce holdings or try shorting at higher levels. The key observation point remains whether $79,400 can be effectively broken through. Consolidation is the foundation for launching a major trend; without a foundation, it is difficult to go far. $BTC
Risk warning: The contract market is highly volatile, and liquidation data changes dynamically. This article is for market observation only and does not constitute any investment advice.Saylor strikes again! $370 million back into $BTC, but this time the script is different
Don't believe the nonsense that "Bitcoin crashes when Saylor collapses." Yesterday, he spent another $370 million, buying 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318.
MSTR now holds 845,050 BTC, valued at 63.7 billion, with an average cost basis lowered to $75,412, finally showing a paper profit. The stock price also rose 1.65%.
This time Saylor has learned his lesson; instead of issuing debt to buy aggressively, he raised $600 million by selling common stock and then spent $150 million to repurchase preferred shares, optimizing the capital structure. In the summer, he actually sold in three rounds, totaling $544 million to cover holes. Now MSTR’s stock price has dropped over 60% in a year, and shareholders are pressing hard. This move back looks more like "averaging down to save himself" rather than reckless leverage.
My judgment: Saylor is definitely the most hardcore long-term BTC bull, but his buying and selling rhythm now acts as a market sentiment thermometer. If he dares to buy, it means there are buyers below $79,000; if he sells again, that’s a warning.一、盘面现状 1. 9月开局延续高位震荡，BTC维持77500‑79500区间箱体运行，美债收益率上行压制盘面，振幅放大，整体交投一般。 2. 板块分化：BTC抗跌性较强，市占率抬升；ETH、多数山寨偏弱；Meme小币种局部脉冲，轮动持续性差，涨回调速度快。 3. 当前市场核心锚点依旧是美债收益率、美元以及即将到来的非农就业数据，宏观主导盘面。 二、今日主要影响事件 1. 美债收益率上行：美国10年期美债收益率走高，抬升风险资产持有成本，是日内主要压制因素。 2. 非农倒计时：本周五公布8月非农就业数据，为本周最大催化剂，数据强弱直接改变美联储降息预期，市场普遍观望，不愿提前押注方向。 3. ETF资金：现货ETF流入明显放缓，机构高位偏谨慎，买盘力度减弱，无大规模出逃。 4. 产业言论：CZ公开表示加密行业已经熬过寒冬，看好RWA资产代币化，属于情绪层面消息，对盘面实际拉动有限。 5. 区域政策：俄罗斯加密跨境转账政策落地，仅区域性影响，对全球大盘作用有限。 三、合约&资金信号 1. 资金费率小幅偏多，没有进入极度狂热区间；24小时双向插针风险仍存，杠杆多头容易被清算。 2NVIDIA bets $3.5 billion on MediaTek! $NVDA Did you understand this move?
Brothers, NVIDIA spent $3.5 billion to buy convertible bonds of MediaTek. On the surface, it's an investment, but essentially it's for self-defense—you can develop your own chips, but you have to use my NVLink Fusion and connect to my rack-level AI factory.
Even if Amazon and Google make their own chips, those chips still have to "speak NVIDIA's language," be compatible with its architecture and interconnect standards. While NVIDIA gives up manufacturing rights, it locks down the definition rights.
Looking at the K-line: 220 is horizontal at the Bollinger middle band, MACD is converging, RSI at 55. Resistance is at 224-226 above, support at 216-218 below.
Objective view: This investment has little short-term impact, but the long-term narrative is changing—from selling GPUs to becoming the platform that defines data center interconnect standards.
Trading strategy:
Conservative: wait for a pullback to 216-218 to go long; aggressive: enter long near the current price.
Remember, when everyone is making chips, the one who sets the interconnect standards is the ultimate winner. Follow Zhao Gongming to help you understand the strategic layout behind AI giants. #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到