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📉$BTC crashed again, dropping directly from 77200 to 75999.5 at 13:30 today, following another sharp plunge after yesterday's spike.
Summary of the logic over the past week:
Earlier, BTC surged rapidly close to 80,000 due to speculation on US Treasury buybacks and crypto regulatory bill expectations, with a large buildup of long leveraged positions.
Then, bill negotiations stalled and landing expectations cooled, the Fed minutes leaned hawkish, whales sold off at highs, and ETF inflows slowed.
Today, there was no sudden major negative news; the market structure itself was fragile, triggering a chain liquidation death spiral among longs, with insufficient liquidity causing a deep spike down.
Essentially, the short-term rise was too fast, leveraged positions crowded, and a concentrated deleveraging occurred after the positive expectations faded.
Ziyun's long position this time was a bit emotional and lacked a stop-loss, breaking his own trading strategy. He needs to stop trading and calm down today.
What are your thoughts? Please share in the comments.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 According to tracking data from the analytics organization Ember, the team behind the Meme coin project $TRUMP has just pushed 3.837 million TRUMP tokens worth approximately 9.33 million USD directly onto the OKX exchange via the BitGo custody gateway. Essentially, the Team wallet placing a large amount of tokens on the CEX is likely to dump when $TRUMP had a pretty strong pump in the past few days. Historically in Crypto projects, project wallets transferring tokens through BitGo and then depositing them on exchanges is often a prelude to a Dump to retail investors. Gold prices, BTC, and ETH surge simultaneously; next week will be the real watershed
Over the past week, BTC rose from 62,800 to nearly 79,000, a weekly increase of over 25%; ETH rose about 26% in sync; gold broke through $4,600. The three assets rising and falling together have only one driving force behind them — loosening U.S. dollar credit.
$BTC's surge this week stems from the Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, over $1 billion in shorts being liquidated, and ETF net inflows of $1.6 billion over four days. But 80,000 is a psychological ceiling; if it falls below 74,537, long position liquidations could reach $2.2 billion.
$ETH rebounded from 2,139 to 2,518 before falling back to 2,400, with RSI once reaching 94 — an overbought trigger for correction. If it falls below 2,307, long position liquidations could reach $682 million. ETH lacks independent catalysts and is mostly following the upward trend.
$XAU gold has risen over 12% this month. But after a 10% surge in January 2015, it fell 10.5% for the year — the same script is repeating.
Two events next week will set the direction: August 27 core PCE data; August 28 Federal Reserve Chair's first speech at Jackson Hole. If PCE rebounds, high interest rate expectations will simultaneously pressure all three.
The simultaneous rise prices in the same event — loosening U.S. dollar credit. But this pricing may be re-evaluated next week. NVIDIA slashes prices by over 15%, but why is the "electricity bill" for AI computing power causing the crypto market to bleed first? On August 23, several of NVIDIA's largest customers were informed that due to soaring memory chip costs, the prices of servers equipped with NVIDIA AI chips will increase, often by more than 15%. This round of price hikes applies to systems shipping early next year, including servers equipped with the Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell chip combinations. 【Veteran's rambling】 This isn't NVIDIA raising prices. It's the memory manufacturers wielding the knife. Shifting the perspective back to the crypto market: over the past two weeks, BTC has been fluctuating repeatedly within a narrow range of $58,000 to $67,000. Even six consecutive days of net inflows into spot ETFs couldn't push the price up—where did the money go? The money was absorbed by the AI infrastructure whale. Hyperscalers' combined capital expenditures are set to soar to nearly $400 billion in 2026, with Alphabet alone raising its forecast to $195 billion–$205 billion, and Microsoft expected to spend about $190 billion. This money isn't going into BTC or ETH; it's all going to buy HBM, racks, and electricity. The cost structure is even more brutal. UBS broke down the BOM of the Vera Rubin superchip: memory's share jumps from about 53% in Grace Blackwell to about 62%. Of the $38,902 total price of a single superchip, memory alone consumes $24,297, with memory spending surging about 2.5 times between generations. Morgan Stanley's analysis that$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Major U.S. Banks Push to Extend KYC to Stablecoin Secondary Markets—DeFi and CEX May Face New Compliance Tightening
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📊 1. Event Overview: Banking Giants Jointly Pressure FinCEN
On August 22, the Bank Policy Institute (BPI), representing major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank, together with The Clearing House (TCH), submitted a comment letter to the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), requesting that Customer Identification Program (CIP) requirements be extended from stablecoin issuers to stablecoin secondary markets.
Core demand: To cover exchanges and other platforms that establish direct account relationships with retail users, requiring them to collect customer information under the Bank Secrecy Act. Decentralized exchanges may also be included in the regulatory scope.
🔥 2. BPI’s Core Logic
BPI and TCH put forward three main points in their comment letter:
1. The secondary market is the "main battlefield"
Digital asset service providers undertake a large volume of buying and selling activities within the stablecoin ecosystem and establish numerous customer relationships. Most illegal activities related to stablecoins occur here. If identity verification stops at the issuer, it leaves a regulatory blind spot at the most crime-concentrated link.
2. DASP must be included in CIP
It should be clearly required that digital asset service providers who establish account relationships with customers to facilitate stablecoin activities are subject to CIP requirements under the Bank Secrecy Act.
3. Clarify vague definitions
Definitions of "customer" and "account" should cover all types of customer relationships that may appear in the stablecoin ecosystem, including those established through direct redemption and other direct interactions with issuers.
⚖️ 3. Current Rules and FinCEN’s Position
On June 18, 2026, FinCEN, together with several federal banking regulators, proposed CIP rules for stablecoin issuers, limiting CIP obligations to the primary market (i.e., direct transactions with issuers) and explicitly excluding secondary market transactions.
FinCEN stated in the proposed rule that extending identity collection to the secondary market is "operationally challenging." Stablecoin secondary market transactions on blockchains typically use anonymous or pseudonymous identities, with no centralized node for collecting identity information, and issuers have limited ability to collect secondary market customer data.
🏛️ 4. Background: The Implementation Game of the GENIUS Act
The backdrop of this proposal is the implementation of the GENIUS Act, passed in 2025, which establishes a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins. Regulators are currently formulating specific customer identification rules. The banking sector is leveraging this window to try to bring the secondary market under regulatory control.
⚔️ 5. The Banking Sector’s "Double Game"
This move by BPI is part of a broader strategy:
1. Opposing stablecoin yield provisions
BPI and other banking organizations have jointly opposed the stablecoin yield provisions in the CLARITY Act. Banks believe that allowing products that pay yields on stablecoins could pull deposits out of the banking system, resulting in a reduction of consumer loans, small business loans, and agricultural loans by more than one-fifth.
2. Promoting secondary market regulation
Banks are trying to achieve two goals simultaneously: ① prevent stablecoins from becoming "interest-bearing deposits"; ② ensure that once stablecoins are widely used, banks still hold key positions in the KYC/AML chain.
📈 6. Impact on the Crypto Market
For centralized exchanges: If the proposal is adopted, CEXs will be required to perform full KYC processes on all stablecoin trading users, significantly increasing compliance costs and operational burdens.
For decentralized exchanges: DEXs "may also be included in the regulatory scope"—but how to implement KYC on DEXs without a centralized entity remains a technical challenge yet to be solved.
For stablecoin issuers (such as Circle, Tether): Secondary market regulation may reduce the pressure on issuers to bear full-chain KYC responsibilities—this is the subtext of BPI’s proposal: "KYC in the secondary market should not be the issuer’s responsibility but that of the trading platforms."
💎 7. Summary
BPI’s proposal pushes the stablecoin regulatory battle to the secondary market, the true "main battlefield." The banking sector’s logic is clear: illegal activities occur in the secondary market, so KYC should be conducted there. However, FinCEN has previously pointed out that implementing secondary market KYC on decentralized blockchains is "operationally challenging."
The final outcome of this battle will determine who bears the KYC responsibility in the stablecoin ecosystem and how it is borne—whether issuers, trading platforms, or ultimately evolving into on-chain identity layer infrastructure. Currently, this remains an industry recommendation, far from becoming formal regulation, but its directional signal is clear: the era of stablecoin anonymity is being systematically narrowed. #BTC surges then consolidates, ETF funds continue to flow in
Why such a strong rally?
The Ministry of Finance doubled the long-term government bond repurchase limit from 2 billion to 4 billion, US Treasury yields fell from above 5.3% to around 5.1%, the US dollar weakened, and capital flowed into risk assets.
ETF funds poured in wildly. As of the week ending August 21, the combined net inflow of spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum reached $2.615 billion, marking the strongest weekly performance since October 2025. Bitcoin spot ETFs alone had a net inflow of $1.92 billion that week. BlackRock contributed significantly on its own.
Short sellers were crushed, having accumulated a large short position during several weeks of sideways trading. When the news hit, shorts were forced to cover, and the covering orders pushed prices higher. The short squeeze combined with ETF buying pressure broke through the 74,000 and 78,000 barriers.
Current situation:
Bitcoin surged above 79,000 but then faced resistance and pulled back, now hovering around 76,000. The 80,000 round number is a strong psychological resistance. Weekend liquidity is weaker, and profit-taking is occurring at high levels. The 4-hour chart shows a shift from a sharp rise to sideways consolidation. RSI once surged above 94, indicating severe overbought conditions; now it is a normal technical correction.
My view:
The core drivers of this rally are the macro policy shift + ETF fund inflows + short covering triple resonance. From 64,000 to 79,000, a 15,000-point rise, short-term overbought is a fact. The 80,000 round number will not be broken in one go; some consolidation here is perfectly normal.
$BTC #BTC fluctuates after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in
I believe that a truly strong market cannot rally every day. Whether it can hold steady after a surge is more important than continuing to push out a big bullish candle.
According to Farside Investors, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs was $517.2 million on August 19, $606.3 million on August 20, and $307.5 million on August 21, totaling about $1.431 billion over three days. This scale is not small; at least it shows that recent support is not just retail chasing the rally, but off-exchange funds are still continuously paying attention to Bitcoin.
However, ETF inflows and immediate price increases are not equivalent. Institutional funds tend to allocate in batches and won’t push the price up all at once like futures longs. So, fluctuations after a surge are not necessarily bad; they may be digesting previous gains, allowing early profit-takers and chasing buyers to rotate positions. As long as the price does not show a clear breakdown, this sideways movement sometimes actually builds momentum for the next phase.
Of course, ETF inflows are not a universal shield. If fund inflows concentrate only in a few days and then quickly cool down, the market will still reprice interest rates, the dollar, and risk appetite. If ETFs continue to flow in but the price drops sharply with high volume at the top, one should watch for divergence between fund flows and price; if volume shrinks on a price pullback and spot support remains, it actually indicates bulls have not fully retreated $BTC $ETH IS WINTERMUTE BETTING ON A PULLBACK?
After a strong weekly rally, $BTC suddenly fell back toward $75.5K, $ETH dropped nearly 5%, and $XRP lost around 6.5%. At the same time, data cited by Onchain Lens showed Wintermute holding about $146.19M in short positions on Hyperliquid, compared with only $13.85M in longs.
Hidden signal: Wintermute’s shorts may simply be hedges. The bigger risk is a domino effect from overcrowded long positions.Although there was a spike today, the overall volatility was still acceptable. Considering that weekends usually have low liquidity, and the price has risen more than 5% daily in the past two days, generally speaking over the years, weekends are either quiet or experience big swings. Most of the time, they pass quietly. So I placed my dual-currency at $73,500, hoping the downside won't exceed 5.5%.
Indeed, if Bitcoin continues to rise, doing dual-currency will be a bit tiring. However, I still have some chips bought at $63,000 for bottom-fishing. Should I start testing high selling from $80,000? I'm a bit conflicted now, and I'm also considering that some friends around me have cleared their spot positions. Should I hedge through options or futures?
My friends started clearing around $76,000. I plan to first see if it can break $80,000, which should be visible next week. If it can't break through in the short term, I might consider hedging my spot holdings. After all, I'm not very interested in selling $BTC, especially at this price. If I hedge, it would only be until before the midterm elections.
Speaking of the midterm elections, I have no hope for Trump and the Republican Party. Trump is messing with tariffs again before resolving the Hormuz issue. Inflation is already high due to rising oil prices. If the tariff war starts, the Republican Party really doesn't need to consider the 2028 election.
Regarding relations with Iran, I am beginning to lean towards "de-Americanization," meaning the new air route opened between Iran and Oman can be opened to countries other than the US and its allies. This could indeed help solve part of the high oil price problem, since the US really doesn't need the Strait of Hormuz.$ZEC is up roughly 70% this week, and I think the market may be pricing in a major shift: ZEC could be positioning itself as the privacy coin Wall Street can actually access. The privacy technology isn’t new. What’s changing is the institutional setup. Grayscale has moved forward with its effort to convert a trust holding roughly 2.3% of circulating ZEC into an NYSE-listed ETF. Meanwhile, adoption is starting to expand: 🔹 ZODL has added Flexa payments across thousands of retailers 🔹 CrossPay Token Fundamentals: Fee Buyback and Burn AQAv2
$HYPE value is directly and deeply tied to protocol fee revenue.
After the upgrade, AQAv2's fee rate and buyback burn mechanism mean that the vast majority of platform transaction fees will be used to buy back and burn tokens on the secondary market, continuously creating deflation and providing fundamental support for the token.
The higher the trading volume → the more fees → the stronger the buyback and burn, forming a positive flywheel.
Biggest Risk: Circulating Supply & FDV Fully Diluted Valuation Pressure
HYPE has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with the current circulating ratio only about 22%‑25%. Most tokens are locked, and the fully diluted valuation (FDV) is relatively high, which is the main pressure hanging over the market.
The core contributors’ tokens unlock linearly until 2029, with fixed amounts of tokens released to the secondary market at each stage.
Although protocol buybacks can absorb some selling pressure, during peak unlock periods, the burn amount is unlikely to fully cover all unlocked tokens, so periodic supply pressure cannot be ignored. Polymarket $80,000 Backers Hit Hard by "Weekend Pullback" — Probability Drops from 62% to 43%, But Bullish Thesis Remains Intact
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📊 1. Data Snapshot: $80,000 Probability Plummets 19%
As of August 23, the probability on Polymarket that "BTC will hit $80,000 during the remainder of August" has dropped to 43%, down 19% in 24 hours. The probability of reaching $85,000 also fell to 12%, down 7% in 24 hours.
This market uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candlestick high price as the reference. This means that if Binance’s 1-minute candlestick high price reaches $80,000 at any time during the rest of August, all users who bet "Yes" will be settled immediately.
🔥 2. Why Did the Probability Plummet? — BTC Surged Then Retraced, Short-Term Profit-Taking
The predicted probability fell sharply from 62% to 43%, closely mirroring Bitcoin’s actual price action:
Friday (August 22): BTC briefly approached the $80,000 mark, reaching a high of about $79,500, just shy of $80,000.
Weekend (August 23): BTC briefly dropped below $76,000, hitting a low near $75,500, and has since rebounded to around $76,000. Recently, large whales have moved massive amounts of BTC to exchanges (bc1qsy $850 million, Jump Crypto $89 million, Wintermute $256 million), combined with Binance BTC inflows hitting a new high since February, indicating concentrated short-term selling pressure.
📈 3. Reasons for the Weekend Pullback: Triple Short-Term Pressure
1. Whale Profit-Taking
Over 53,000 BTC have flowed into major exchanges this week, with about 17,800 BTC moving into Binance. These BTC mainly come from short-term holders (holding less than one day), representing typical "quick profit-taking" behavior.
2. Technical Pressure at the $80,000 Psychological Level
$80,000 is a key psychological threshold and technical resistance. Bulls faced concentrated profit-taking selling after the first touch, a normal technical pullback.
3. Weekend Liquidity Shortage
Weekend trading volume is usually lower, with thinner buy-side liquidity, making prices prone to larger swings.
⚔️ 4. Bullish Thesis: Pullback Is Healthy, Trend Intact
1. Macro Liquidity Continues to Improve
The U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen from 5.3% to around 5.1%, loosening the global asset pricing anchor. Macro strategist Mark Connors even predicts that if repurchases expand to $10-30 billion per month, BTC could challenge $180,000. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley also stated, "We are in the early stages of a bull market; this scale of ETF inflows is usually associated with larger asset price moves. It is not yet fully priced in by the market."
2. Ray Dalio’s "Debt Crisis" Warning
Dalio warned on August 21 that a U.S. debt crisis could erupt within a year, recommending a 10%-15% allocation to gold and a small amount of Bitcoin. BTC nearing $80,000 and gold breaking $4,600 show the market is pricing in this narrative.
3. Institutional Buying Remains Strong
Strive purchased 406 BTC via SATA in two days, Ionic Digital increased holdings by 21 BTC to 2,882 BTC. SATA’s 13% dividend yield and BSOL’s $20 million weekly inflow indicate ongoing structured capital inflows. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly targets $300,000-$400,000 by 2030.
💎 5. Summary
Polymarket’s probability dropping from 62% to 43% reflects the market’s immediate pricing of BTC’s surge and pullback. But the $80,000 bet is not over — with 8 days left in August, BTC remains near $76,000.
Short term: 53,000 BTC flowing into exchanges, profit-taking after the first $80,000 touch, and thin weekend liquidity suggest continued short-term volatility.
Medium term: expanded U.S. Treasury repurchases, Dalio’s debt crisis warning, and ongoing institutional accumulation mean the bullish thesis remains intact.
$80,000 is not a question of "if" but "when." Polymarket’s 43% probability offers those who believe "it will happen in August" a cheaper entry than on Friday.
$BTC $POL #BTC fluctuates after surge, ETF funds continue to flow in
$BTC surged from around $63,000 to nearly $80,000 this week, an increase of over 20%. But compared to the price, I think the more important data has finally come out: the combined net inflow of US spot BTC and ETH ETFs over one week is about $2.6 billion.
Among them, BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $1.9 billion, and $ETH ETFs about $697 million, marking one of the strongest weeks since October 2025. BTC ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days.
This makes this rally clearly different from a simple short squeeze. When BTC just broke through $69,000, there was a large-scale short liquidation in the market, so at that time it was reasonable to question: was it really buyers, or just shorts being forced to cover?
But now that the price is close to $80,000 and ETF funds are still flowing in, it indicates that at least some real spot buying is taking over.
So moving forward, I won’t be too fixated on the $80,000 round number.
What I’m more focused on is whether ETFs can maintain net inflows for a second and third consecutive week.
Because price increases can be driven by leverage, but a truly sustained trend ultimately requires spot capital to buy in.In Seattle in 2001, Amazon's warehouses were piled high with unsold goods, layoffs began in the offices, and the capital markets were discussing an even harsher question: how much longer could this company survive? Before the internet bubble burst, as long as the name included ".com", losses could be explained away as investing in the future. After the bubble burst, investors suddenly only recognized cash, debt, and profits. From its peak in 1999 to its trough, Amazon's stock fell by about 95%, and the capital markets that had supported its expansion quickly shut down. In the first quarter of 2001, the company held about $643 million in cash and marketable securities, but long-term debt reached $2.119 billion, and shareholders' equity was already negative. The GAAP net loss for the quarter was $234 million, and the market began to worry that it would run out of cash before its bonds matured. Amazon's Q1 2001 performance 25 years later, Amazon's market value surpassed $3 trillion for the first time in August 2026. The same company operates the world's largest e-commerce and logistics network while selling cloud computing, chips, and model services to AI enterprises. Its survival to this day is due to transforming its "growth story" into a cash-generating business at the coldest time for capital. When the internet bubble burst, scale almost became a burden. In the late 1990s, the U.S. was experiencing low inflation, a strong dollar, and a wave of tech investment, with global funds flowing into Nasdaq. Amazon took advantage of the financing window to expand categories, build warehouses, acquire companies, and issued a large amount of convertible bonds. The logic at the timeSurged over 37% in a week, $BTC enters a critical decision zone
BTC started from $58,000, reaching a high of $79,800, with a cumulative increase of over 37%. Continuous net inflows into ETFs and massive short liquidations are direct catalysts, but the underlying logic of this rally is essentially the market's early pricing of improved liquidity expectations—U.S. Treasury yields falling, a weakening dollar, and funds flowing back into interest rate-sensitive asset classes.
In the short term, a correction is inevitable after continuous rallies. $80,000 is a key psychological barrier, combined with pressure from previous high-level trapped positions, making a direct breakthrough difficult. A more likely path is: BTC oscillates widely between $73,500 and $80,000, using time to exchange for space to complete chip turnover, then chooses an opportunity to break upwards.
The core observation range is $73,500–$74,200—this is the key defense line to judge whether the bullish trend remains intact. If it holds, there is potential to continue the upward attack after the correction ends; if it breaks, attention should be paid to the weekly-level support near $72,000. Waiting for a signal of stabilization after the pullback is the safest strategy at this stage. SOL
Key levels: Support at $92.3 / $91.0
Resistance at $93 / $94 / $96
Strategy: Current price $92.4-92.8 enter first half position, add second half on pullback to $91.5-92.3
Stop loss: $90.8
Targets: $93 → $94 → $96 Fall a bit more fiercely
Next stage reduce position at 2350, let it keep falling for me
I want to recover all the losses from previous shorts!
$ETH has been weakening in its rebound since the peak, the 1-hour rhythm is also starting to press down, the buying power at high levels is clearly not as strong as before
I will reduce part of the position at 2350 first, keep the rest to see if this pullback can extend further down
Direction judgment only decides whether you make money or not, position management determines how much you finally keep.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Arthur Hayes, that old guy, is firing again, and this time I think he's right.
The original quote is: "If you don't go long on stocks, gold, or Bitcoin, you're an idiot." Harsh words but not without reason. His logic chain is simple: starting September 9, the Treasury will double its purchases of long-term government bonds, effectively suppressing long-term yields without announcing it. He calls this "soft yield curve control"—in plain terms, it's secretly implementing YCC.
But Hayes isn't blindly bullish. He mentioned a risk: if the AI bubble bursts, all assets will drop in the short term. However, he believes that after the drop, central banks will inject more liquidity, and $BTC will actually be the biggest beneficiary. I find this view credible—the liquidity crisis is short-term, liquidity expansion is long-term.
I trust Hayes' macro framework, but I'm not in a hurry on the timing. The Treasury only started operations on September 9, and the current price of 77,000 has already priced in a lot of expectations. It's not too late to add positions once liquidity actually lands.
For those saying $BTC will drop to 50,000, have you read the Treasury's plan to double bond purchases?
#Hayes #Treasury #YCC #Liquidity #MacroSELLERS AREN’T ATTACKING THE WHOLE MARKET — THEY’RE TESTING THE WEAK SPOTS FIRST
$BTC has pulled back to around $76K,while still holding above the 4H MA20.But $ETH has slipped to around $2,373 underperforming Bitcoin.
selling pressure is showing up first in higher-beta assets before spreading to BTC.This is more than simple profit-taking — the market is testing whether capital is still strong enough to defend riskier assets.If ETH quickly reclaims $2.40K,sellers may not be in control yet.Bao Er Ye:
From the peak of 120,000 down to today's 70,000, a drop of 33%. According to past data, the next bull market must reach 500,000, then crash again to 250,000, followed by a long bear market. Eventually, everyone slowly gets used to 250,000 as the bottom.
Just like now, everyone has slowly gotten used to 60,000 as the bottom.
Just like in 2015, everyone got used to 300 USD as the bottom.
Just like in 2017, everyone got used to 3,000 USD as the bottom.
Just like in 2021, everyone got used to 16,000 as the bottom.
Do you think 60,000 is the bottom?In the past 72 hours, the most worth studying in Crypto is not whether "$BTC can still surge to 80,000," but that capital, price, and the industry chain are simultaneously giving signals. Let's first look at $BTC. This round quickly rose from around 64,000 to a high of about 79,600, and now it is oscillating around 76,000. Many people see the 1-hour MACD weakening and start shouting that the rally is over, but one data point cannot be ignored: this week, the US spot $BTC ETF has seen a large-scale net inflow again, totaling about $1.6 billion from Monday to Thursday, with about $606 million on Thursday alone. In other words, short-term prices are cooling down, but the institutional funds that previously drove the rise have not disappeared simultaneously. So I am now more inclined to view $BTC's 75,000–76,000 range as the first observation zone, rather than directly judging the bull market to be over. The real danger is if it breaks below and the rebound cannot recover; conversely, if it stabilizes again at 77,000–78,000, the previous high of 79,600 will still be tested. Next, let's look at $ETH. $ETH surged from around 1,900 to 2,549, and now has fallen back to about 2,375. This movement essentially has entered a high-level rotation phase from a "catch-up rally." The short-term EMA7 and EMA25 have started to suppress the price, but EMA99 is still around 2,300, so the 2,300–2,350 range is actually more important than 2,500. Holding here means $ETH still has the conditions to challenge 2,500–2,550 again; if lost, one should guard against a rapid pullback after the previous large gains. Next up are $SOL, $SUI,Yesterday, the crypto market experienced a terrifying flash crash.
BTC surged to $79,500, then plummeted straight down to $76,500 within minutes; ETH broke below the 2400 mark, and all altcoins collectively suffered double-digit crashes, even correlated risk assets like crude oil weakened simultaneously.
In just 2 minutes, the market capitalization evaporated by $108 billion. Liquidations across the network reached $1.675 billion, with over 280,000 trader accounts liquidated, marking the seventh largest liquidation event in crypto history.
Many thought the exchange pulled the plug, but the truth is that the joint margin mechanism caused this chain disaster. A large number of traders used unified accounts to open long positions simultaneously on BTC, ETH, and altcoins. Altcoins crashed first, triggering insufficient margin in accounts, and the system liquidated all positions in the accounts regardless of cost, dragging Bitcoin and Ethereum down passively.
So opening isolated margin positions separately is also a good choice $BTC
The crash triggered more forced liquidations, creating a vicious cycle of cross-asset liquidations. When one coin collapses, the entire account goes down with it 🤯.The key signal is not the reported 15%+ increase itself, but whether customers absorb it without delaying orders. Nvidia has not confirmed the pricing, and any adjustment may differ across Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell systems depending on chip generation and memory configuration.
If demand holds despite higher memory-driven hardware budgets, that would reinforce Nvidia’s pricing power and potentially support storage-chain margins. A slowdown in orders would point instead to tighter cloud AI capex discipline and renewed pressure on tech valuations. Not advice, just analysis.
#NvidiaServerPriceHikeOn Friday, the $CRCL underlying stock surged 5.16%, while the on-chain token dropped 1.60%, resulting in a 1.56% discount inversion, indicating a cross-market price divergence. The US stock market closure hindered arbitrage funds, and executives' high-level sell-off of $280,000 suppressed confidence in token price chasing.
The daily RSI14 reached 76.0, entering the overbought zone, and the upper Bollinger Band at $89.25 directly technically suppresses the current token price of $86.61. Although the MACD maintains a golden cross, the red bars have shortened, indicating that the token buying driven by the underlying stock's positive news is losing momentum after the rally.
During the US market closure, the Nasdaq 100 tokens changed by only -0.08%, lacking macro incremental capital support, causing the token market to weaken independently from the underlying stock. At this time, the underlying stock's director sold $280,000 at a high level, accelerating profit-taking sentiment in the token market.
The downside scenario triggers if the token fails to reclaim the $87.00 level before the US market opens on Monday. If the token is squeezed by overbought correction to approach the 7/25 moving averages, the discount rate to the underlying stock will further widen; this scenario is invalidated if the token breaks out with volume above the upper Bollinger Band at $89.25.
The upside scenario triggers if the underlying stock continues to rally at the US market open on Monday, driving cross-market arbitrage funds to quickly buy tokens and eliminate the 1.56% discount. If token volume follows and pushes the price up, it will align with the bullish arrangement of the 7/25 moving averages to challenge the $90.00 level; this scenario is invalidated if the underlying stock gaps down and dives at the US market open.
Currently, the bullish arrangement of the 7/25 moving averages represents a continuation of high-level momentum. Once the token breaks below the moving average support, the bullish structure will completely collapse. The interplay of positive underlying stock news and insider sell-offs significantly reduces the success rate of simply following the underlying stock to speculate on the token.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, key observations should focus on the convergence speed between the underlying stock's opening price and the token's 1.56% discount rate at the US market open on Monday, as well as the token RSI's pullback turning point from the high of 76.0.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC fluctuates after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in
$BTC 76165, $ETH 2383, this position is really awkward. Bulls holding positions are suffering, bears lying in wait are also uncomfortable, a typical dilemma for both sides.
I've been reminded a lot of the 2022 wave recently. Back then, BTC bounced over 40% from 17700, but eventually fell to 15800 before truly bottoming; ETH dropped below 900 then strongly rebounded, but ultimately hit new lows. This round, BTC rose from 60,000 to 78,000, then hovered back around 77,000; ETH surged from 1800 to 2500, now pulling back to 2400. The amplitude, sentiment, and rhythm are eerily similar.
But it's not exactly the same. This time, ETFs are buying with real money, regulations are loosening, institutions are more involved, making this a "this time might be different" variable. So I won't bet on a one-sided move, just waiting for the right price. My approach: hold 30% as a base position to avoid missing out, place orders with 50% of funds to buy in batches at deep dips, keep 20% cash flexible. My friend's account still holds longs; as long as the defense line isn't broken, keep holding. My own small account is just for small trades, no rush.
How much of your position do you hold now? Do you think $BTC 76000 is the bottom or halfway up the mountain? Let's discuss in the comments.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #BTC surges then consolidates, ETF funds continue to flow in
Have you ever thought about one thing
BTC surged to 78800
My first reaction was not to chase
But to look at ETF data
This week net inflow is 2.6 billion
The strongest single week since last October
But the market didn't hold steady
Fell back from 78800 to 77000
Why?
Because profit-taking is happening
The 2.6 billion from ETFs just absorbed the sell orders
Here’s the question
If inflows slow down next week
Can 77000 still hold?
I think a short-term shakeout is needed
But ETF funds are still there
The trend is not broken
My judgment is
Below 77000 is a dip-buying zone
Hold it and wait for the next wave
$BTC Haven't talked about $CRCL for a long time. On Friday, the underlying stock surged fiercely, but the token actually softened a bit. With the US stock market closed, I reconnected a few clues I had.
📰 News: IBM's blockchain patent portfolio acquisition ignited the sentiment for the underlying stock, a single-day rise of 5.16% is understandable; however, director Michele Burns sold over $280,000 that day. An insider selling at the high point is a detail I take more seriously.
🔧 Technicals: Daily RSI14 at 76.0, already in the overbought zone; Bollinger upper band at 89.25 pressing overhead, MACD golden cross but the red bars are shortening, the 7/25 moving averages bullish alignment looks more like high-level inertia rather than a new trend starting.
🌍 Macro: US stock market closed over the weekend, Nasdaq 100 tokens only down -0.08%, no incremental funds coming in, so it's hard for the token to continue rising on the underlying stock's good news alone.
🎯 Today's view: Bearish. Honestly, the underlying stock rose 5.16% while the token fell 1.6%, with a premium of -1.56%. The token market is already preemptively correcting, and I worry the sentiment debt will have to be paid back in the short term.
📊 Token 86.61 (-1.60%) | Underlying stock 87.98 (+5.16%) | Premium -1.56% | US stock market closed over the weekend
#USStockTokens
#StablecoinConcept
#CRCLOutlook Don't get hung up on today or tomorrow. If you really want to know what the price of Ethereum will be in this bull market cycle, don't look at technical indicators—they're fake. Every major uptrend starts only after the technical indicators have already deteriorated. So what indicators should you look at? What was Ethereum's market share in previous bull markets? How much did the bottom rise? From 80 to 880 in the last cycle, a tenfold increase. This cycle's bottom will also rise at least threefold. In 2017 and 2021, Ethereum's market share was 25%, meaning Ethereum could account for 25% of the total cryptocurrency market cap, while altcoins used to account for 65%. In 2021, with a $3 trillion market cap, altcoins accounted for nearly $2 trillion. Now compare: according to previous cryptocurrency market cap growth, as I always mention, it was $100 billion in 2014, $800 billion in 2017, and $3 trillion in 2021. This cycle, based on the halving growth method, the minimum market cap will be $7.5 trillion. Or if we underestimate further and don't follow the halving growth method, the last bull market saw a $2.2 trillion increase in market cap; if this cycle increases by $2.2 trillion, that would be $5.2 trillion. This number is definitely not the limit, since gold and the U.S. stock market have both risen so much this cycle. So I believe the minimum market cap for this crypto cycle is $6 trillion. Calculate 25% of that for Ethereum, or to underestimate, 20% for Ethereum. Previously, altcoins accounted for 65% of the market cap, but this cycle I'll halve that to 30%, which is $1.8 trillion just for altcoins. Then look at another data point: Binance's hundreds of coins account for over 99% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. So you'll realize this bull market will be even bigger than 2021. Therefore, looking at today or tomorrow is useless.⚠️ $BTC PULLBACK: WATCH THE BOND MARKET
$BTC has slipped from its ~$79.5K high toward $76.8K. Profit-taking is one explanation—but macro conditions may be adding pressure.
When Treasury yields rise, investors can rotate toward safer, yield-bearing assets, tightening liquidity available for risk assets like crypto.
The key signal isn't just $BTC price. Watch yields and liquidity.
If financial conditions tighten further, $BTC may struggle to regain $79K–$80K quickly.
#NvidiaServerPriceHike #ETH震荡 after reaching $2500
I am Cige. After ETH hit $2500, it fell back to around $2400 and is now fluctuating. It has risen nearly 30% in a week, with short liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion. The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about $697 million last week, the highest single-week inflow since 2026. The capital side is recovering, but the price has already entered a high-level consolidation phase.
The nature of this rally is very clear: it is driven by short covering, not a fundamental reversal. The current divergence is whether this rally is a high-level consolidation after short covering or if spot and ETF funds are continuing to take over. If subsequent buying slows down, high-leverage positions and profit-taking will amplify volatility. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP "An Overextended Bull Market"
The crypto market's greatest skill is crafting a grand narrative that convinces everyone tomorrow will be better.
In April 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving. According to the "iron law" of the past three cycles—peaking 12 to 18 months after halving—2025 was supposed to be the year of the most vigorous primary uptrend. The market did deliver some sweetness: BTC surged to a historic high of $126,000 in October 2025, ETH once approached $5,000, and $SOL was hyped by various KOLs to a "faith price" of $750.
But the problem lies precisely here—this bull market was driven by "narrative" rather than "liquidity" from the start.
The Federal Reserve's rate cuts were delayed and never materialized; global liquidity did not truly ease. The rally was propped up by ETF capital pulses, institutional FOMO, and retail investors' blind faith in "halving means bull." The narrative ran ahead of liquidity, and the only outcome was overextension.
After October 2025, $BTC plummeted, falling below $61,000 by February 2026—a drop of over 50%, with more than 570,000 liquidations. ETH fell to 1800, SOL dropped to 76. Targets like "BTC 200,000" and "ETH 7000" now seem like a collective hallucination. Entering 2026, the market entered a true deep bear phase due to repeated rate cut expectations and ongoing liquidity tightening. The "bull market in 2026" is just self-comfort within an old narrative framework.
$ETH's predicament is more alarming than the price itself.
ETH at 1800 makes many think "it's cheap enough." But using 1500 as a bottom reference, this level is not high. Citibank warned in February 2026 that under a bear market, ETH could drop to 2200—now already breached.
The deeper issue lies in fundamentals: the L2 narrative is hitting a bottleneck, and even Vitalik admits the original vision no longer applies. When the core narrative falters, the downside is no longer just a cycle issue but a valuation system restructuring. 1500 could even be just a mid-downtrend pause.
A prolonged bottoming process, not a V-shaped reversal.
Crypto bear markets usually last 12 to 18 months. This downturn began in November 2025, and the bottom zone may not appear until Q3 2026. Before then, the market will likely remain weak, oscillating between 1500 and 2500.
2500 is a previous dense lock-in zone; in a bear market, a rebound to this level is the ceiling for relieving selling pressure. 2500 is not the start of a bull market but the ceiling for a short-term rebound.
The situations of various assets reflect different layers of structural risk:
- BTC: Bottoming between 55,000 and 75,000, institutional long cost lines have been breached, undergoing a faith pressure test
- ETH: Weak oscillation between 1500 and 2500, beware of valuation crashes from ecological model shifts
- SOL: Oscillating near $83, facing value reversion after the Meme tide recedes
In the winter, survival is more important than bottom fishing.
Maintaining cash flow and waiting for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts to materialize and clear on-chain data stabilization signals is the safest strategy now.
Bull markets never come when everyone is waiting for them. The true bottom often quietly forms when no one believes it will come.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $HYPE is currently holding strong at a high level. I analyzed its contract data. I was surprised to find that, under these circumstances, there is still a lot of capital going long. For this kind of coin, I don't want to short it. Right now, I short only to make money; if the probability of this coin dropping is low, then I have no reason to short it. There are other coins in the market more worth shorting. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that its contract open interest and long-short ratio have both increased synchronously in the latter half. This means that, under the current situation, there is still a lot of capital going long in the market. I personally speculate that it might be because other coins in the market are falling. Capital has nowhere else to go, so it’s clustering together for warmth. This round, the market has chosen $HYPE and $ZEC as the coins to cluster together for warmth. —————————————————— In the previous cycle, it was also these two coins. So when shorting, everyone can try to avoid these two coins. Because there’s no need. Most people short to make money, not because they truly are bearish on the project. Many don’t even know what these projects do; they simply short because the price has risen too much. If people knew these projects are unlikely to fall, many wouldn’t short at all. So for these counter-cycle coins, we don’t need to short them. On one hand, it’s very likely you won’t make much money; on the other hand, you might miss out on a$OFC This coin's trading volume is all manipulated by these two accounts, don't buy it. If you want to buy, short it, don't expect it to go up This wave on August 23 is not a "bottom," but a high-level shakeout after a 20% weekly rise: BTC faced heavy whale selling pressure at 77,000 and pulled back, ETH held at 2400, XRP dropped 11% in a single day, and the fear and greed index has surged to 76 (greed zone). The real bottom was already completed in mid-August during the 63,000–65,000 sideways consolidation. Now, talking about "bottom fishing" has low cost-effectiveness. If you want to get in, don't chase; wait for two types of pullbac🔥 Is the EU going to regulate DeFi lending as well? This time it might really affect on-chain finance!
The European Commission is seeking opinions on areas currently insufficiently covered by MiCA, such as DeFi, crypto lending, and borrowing, with the consultation period extended until September 30.
What’s really interesting is: who exactly should be regulated in DeFi Vaults?
Take Morpho Vault V2 as an example—fund management, risk control, and allocation permissions are distributed among different roles and smart contracts, making it hard to simply identify a "boss" to bear the regulatory responsibilities typical of traditional financial institutions.
This actually exposes the biggest challenge in DeFi regulation:
The code runs, funds are on-chain, but who ultimately bears the responsibility?
If the EU starts to classify based on "actual control" and "economic function" rather than bluntly using the word "decentralized," the entire DeFi lending sector could face a major reshuffle.
For the industry, this is both pressure and opportunity.
The clearer the regulation, the more institutions dare to enter; the more reasonable the rules, the more chance DeFi has to truly go mainstream.
Keep a close eye on the consultation results at the end of September, as this could become an important indicator for DeFi regulation in Europe.🔥$BTC $OKB $HYPE Tonight's market situation makes me want to laugh a little, yet also feel a bit heartbroken. Do you have friends around you who said they'd run together, but secretly increased their positions and made more profit, then turned around and advised you "don't run"? Tonight, I am that somewhat speechless friend beside them. I exited my ETH long at 1920, while they stubbornly held on until now, with an unrealized profit of over two thousand dollars, still shouting they want to see 3000. They say "touch and run," but their actual position is more honest than anyone else's. I just re-entered ETH at 2426, continuing my "touch and run" plan. But honestly, in this kind of market, the biggest fear isn't missing out, but those who say short-term but secretly hold long-term, suddenly starting to waver. What really makes me alert is my own 70000 BTC short, still stuck halfway. The spike during the day didn't break through, and the liquidation dense zone is pressing at 81000, like a tightly stretched string. The market sentiment now isn't "fear of falling," but "dare to chase or not." Look at ZEC, an old coin, which rallied more fiercely today than BTC and ETH, even making me consider shorting it. But then I thought, this kind of catch-up rally is often not the start of sector rotation, but a signal that short-term sentiment is extremely overheated. Everyone is now discussing the White House summit and watching if BTC can hold steady, but few notice that in the derivatives market, short liquidations have already exceeded 1.1 billion USD. What does this mean? It means part of this rally was forced buybacks pushing the price up ZEC has reached a new all-time high on the platform. What I find most interesting about this wave is not "privacy coins are rising again," but that the market is re-pricing privacy itself.
In recent years, crypto has become increasingly institutionalized and compliant, with ETFs, KYC, and on-chain analysis continuously developing, making asset flows more transparent.
But problems have also emerged:
If in the future everyone's on-chain assets, transfer records, and even financial relationships can be tracked, could financial privacy become a scarce commodity?
This might be the core logic behind ZEC regaining attention.
However, I won't blindly turn bullish on privacy coins because their greatest value is also their biggest regulatory risk—the stronger the privacy, the more regulatory scrutiny it may attract.
Therefore, what truly deserves observation in this ZEC rally is not how much it can rise in the short term, but whether the market is forming a long-term narrative:
Blockchain requires transparency, but users also need privacy.
If this contradiction becomes increasingly prominent in the future, the privacy sector may be far from over.
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 BTC, I think this wave will at least pull up to around $79K before it might stop, and around $83K is very likely to encounter the first real resistance.
But honestly, it's very normal to miss out on this kind of market.
If your trading system built over the past year is: price drops → rush to catch the rebound
rebound → look for a position to short
then you will most likely do exactly the same thing this time.
Recently, some people have actually started going long all the way,
but they run at $70K, or even reverse to short.
Why?
Because doing this over the past year really made money. The problem is, this kind of continuous violent short squeeze market might only happen once a year.
If you try to catch this "once-a-year" market,
and chase longs mindlessly on every rebound,
you might get beaten down by the market for a whole year first.
So I actually think:
If you made money over the past year by "shorting the rebound",
then missing out on this violent surge is completely normal.
At least it means you have your own trading system.
But if you have been going long all the way, bottom-fishing all the way, losing money all the way over the past year,
and now there really comes an epic rebound and you still miss out...
then I can only say:
You took all the hits in the bear market,
and didn’t get a bite of the bull market meat.
The most important thing in trading is never:
"I have to catch every market move."
But rather:
When the market move that belongs to you appears, do you have the ability to take the money away. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ The strategy hasn't changed, but there's an important market situation you need to know —
**BTC briefly dropped to $75,560 early this morning, briefly breaking through the first target of $75,700.**
Current prices (around 13:50):
- BTC ~$76,200 (24H low $75,560, high $78,835)
- ETH ~$2,417 (24H low $2,382, also broke through $2,400)
- SOL ~$94 (24H low $87.85, just short of $85)
**What happened:**
1. After BTC surged to $79,400 last night, a huge whale sold 7,700 BTC over three days (about $577 million), directly turning $80K into a ceiling
2. Early morning, BTC plunged sharply from $79,000 to $74,200 (some exchanges had spikes), with $1.4 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours and 250,000 people liquidated, a disaster for longs
3. But BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion over the past 5 days, ETH ETFs net inflow of $690 million, institutions are buying in
**How to view it:**
This drop was caused by whale selling plus high-leverage long liquidations, not a deterioration of fundamentals. ETF inflows indicate institutions are bottom-fishing. BTC and ETH briefly touched the first target levels but quickly rebounded; SOL hasn't reached its target yet.
**Operation suggestions remain unchanged, but you can choose:**
- If you want to be more cautious, continue waiting for all three coins to reach their targets simultaneously (SOL hasn't hit $85 yet), or wait for BTC to stabilize below $75,700 before acting
- If you think BTC/ETH have already given an opportunity and don't want to wait, you can execute the first batch for BTC and ETH (spot BTC ¥4,000 + ETH ¥3,000, futures BTC long 100U), and add SOL after $85
I tend to wait a bit longer — that early morning dip was a spike, not a stable breakdown; the whale is still selling, and Nvidia's earnings on 8/27 and Jackson Hole on 8/28 are next week, so uncertainty remains. But if you're afraid of missing out, going in with half a position is reasonable, especially since the position size is light.
What do you think?The core of this news flash is not "how much she bought," but the contrast.
- Rashida Tlaib previously opposed the CLARITY Act, but in her latest financial disclosure, her retirement account holds Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
- This indicates that even though there are verbal disagreements on crypto legislation, ETFs as a compliant entry point have already been accepted by some U.S. politicians as normal asset allocation.
- The market impact is more about sentiment and narrative: on one side, regulatory discussions continue; on the other, institutional entry points for BTC and ETH are increasingly accepted.
- But don’t jump to conclusions about definite bullish or bearish effects; the disclosure only shows the holding limit, not that she is currently increasing her position, nor does it prove a change in stance. Why not spin off Alibaba Cloud for a separate listing when they're so short on cash?
Answer: If they spin it off, the e-commerce instant retail business will really have no cover.
Good news for tech hardware and semiconductors! Over HKD 80 billion, which already accounts for about 5% of Alibaba's total, a massive placement!
And it's all invested in AI, continuing to bet on computing power. Such a large proportion invested actually already represents that Alibaba has started to transform; it is no longer a traditional e-commerce company but an AI infrastructure company!
First share placement in 7 years, really burning money! This placement is second only to Google and Intel; Google placed over USD 80 billion, Intel USD 20 billion, these are all American tech companies. Unexpectedly, Asia also has Alibaba, placing USD 10.2 billion.
However, for shareholders, my friends who bought Alibaba shares are already complaining there, saying it hasn't brought returns to investors, the main business is facing collapse, reckless investments, and reckless spending.
I think, let alone shareholder returns, for a tech company in an iteration cycle, just being able to hold on and survive is already good enough! The more important signal is not that BTC briefly cleared $78,800, but that the rebound coincided with about $1.9B flowing into US spot BTC ETFs last week. With ETH ETFs adding roughly $697M, combined inflows reached their strongest weekly level since last October.
My read: this gives the move a firmer spot-demand base than a rally driven mainly by short covering. Still, BTC easing toward $77,000 shows the next test is#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #NvidiaServerPriceHike $HYPE The bears have reversed. In the previous round, short-term whales still held about 2.41 million USD HYPE short positions and 2.59 million USD BTC short positions, then quickly added short positions and then quickly covered the market. Official trading shows that approximately 4.56 million USD HYPE short positions and 4.69 million USD BTC short positions have been closed, resulting in a total profit of about 18.6k USD; In the latest official snapshot, neither side has any remaining perpetual positions or open orders. Meanwhile, a swing wallet with 30 days of stable profits still holds about 1.18 million USD HYPE long positions. The previous round of long-bear standoff has already become unbalanced: short-term bears exit, mid-term bulls remain.BTC and gold are rising together, so what exactly is the market worried about?
BTC surged sharply this week, with a weekly increase of over 20%. But what I found more worth paying attention to today is not how much BTC has risen, but that:
gold is also rising.
Two seemingly completely different assets strengthening simultaneously reveals investors' concerns about the purchasing power of the dollar and future liquidity.
Recently, the yield on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds has risen significantly, and the U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term bond repurchases. The market has started to revisit a term:
Debasement Trade — currency devaluation trade.
In plain terms: if investors worry about the long-term purchasing power decline of fiat currency, they will convert part of their money into relatively scarce assets.
Gold is the traditional answer, and BTC is becoming another answer.
But there is another booster for this round of BTC's rise: a short squeeze.
After the price breaks through, short sellers stop losses and get liquidated, forced to buy back BTC, which further pushes the price up.
So I won’t directly conclude "a big bull market has arrived" just because BTC rose over 20% in a week.
Instead, I focus on three questions:
① Can BTC ETFs continue to attract inflows?
② After the surge, can BTC hold steady at a high level?
③ How will the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields move next?
My biggest takeaway today is not predicting how much more BTC can rise, but changing the question to:
Who is buying? Why buy now? Will this reason still hold a month from now?
If the purchasing power of fiat currency continues to decline in the future, would you rather hold gold or BTC? $BTC Robinhood Chain's locked value has surpassed the $1 billion mark, and the real on-chain trading volume is now directly driving $UNI's buyback and burn.
The buy-side support in the spot market is gradually being confirmed by underlying cash flow. After the fee switch was activated, the protocol's daily revenue once exceeded $240,000, with the buyback volume surpassing that of the mainnet and Base.
This liquidity shift stems from the choice of underlying architecture. The network directly uses the full Uniswap matching components as its native liquidity base, allowing external capital injection without intermediate layer losses.
Once the single chain contributes about 60% of the total protocol fees network-wide, the actual on-chain trading volume becomes strongly and directly linked to the token deflation rhythm in the secondary market.
If active on-chain funds continue to accumulate and trading frequency remains high, the burn rate will keep increasing the concentration of chips in the spot market, forming a more solid liquidity buy-side support.
If the initial trading heat of the application chain cools rapidly or liquidity is diluted by other diversion mechanisms, the daily buyback volume will quickly decline, and the momentum for valuation repricing will weaken accordingly.
Currently, the market's pricing of fundamental improvements is still based on a linear extrapolation of daily fee contributions. Once the network turnover rate experiences a cliff-like drop, the deflation logic will be tested.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the network can maintain the current proportion of daily protocol revenue contribution while keeping the locked value stable above $1 billion.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入ETH’s move above $2,500 and retreat toward $2,400 looks less like a clean trend signal than a test of who is setting the marginal price. More than $1.1B in 24-hour short liquidations shows how much forced buying accelerated the rally, while roughly $697M of weekly US spot ETF inflows points to a separate source of demand.#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #NvidiaServerPriceHike The core reason for the start of this BTC rally is that the U.S. Treasury has suppressed long-term U.S. bond yields. As long-term yields decline and the dollar weakens, assets highly sensitive to liquidity such as Bitcoin and gold have shown strong synchronized resonance.
After a week of a sharp rise, the upward momentum is somewhat exhausted. The resistance at 80,000 is difficult to break through directly. The ideal scenario is a pullback to digest profit-taking, clear out the floating supply, and then push up again to break through 82,000. As long as the pullback does not effectively break below 74,000, there will be a second chance to charge.Let me share some of my own observations. The large accumulation of ammunition and sentiment during Bitcoin $BTC's low-level consolidation over half a year is certainly the main reason for this round of the market, but there is quite an explanation as to why the fuse was lit at this particular timing:
1. From the perspective of the Trump family's interests, they need the crypto space to remain prosperous. Bitcoin doesn't necessarily need to keep rising, but a liquidity-rich exit window is definitely something they want.
2. Under the Genius Act framework, stablecoins are structural buyers of short-term debt. When Bassett doubles his purchase of long-term debt, the firmness and purchasing power in the short-term debt market are very much needed. Creating a crypto bull market by pushing up Bitcoin is the most convenient way to increase stablecoin demand:
Crypto bull market → stablecoin circulation rises → short-term debt demand rises → providing capital for Treasury's long-term operations → USD weakens → crypto rises again
Although the current total stablecoin circulation is around $300 billion, the additional short-term debt demand generated by one bull market year is only a few tens of billions. But this is one of the few directions with growth potential and an important component of Treasury 2.0, deserving special attention.
3. The international macro environment determines that this round is more likely a BTC independent bull/rotational bull, rather than a comprehensive bull across all risk assets. Because there is no synchronized global easing now, and from the previous discussion, Bitcoin's rise has its own historical mission.
4. With the long ends of the US, UK, and Japan under simultaneous pressure and central banks continuously buying gold, both gold and Bitcoin have their roles. Gold is the official sector's outlet, while BTC is the outlet for private and gray capital.
5. Previously, the crypto space fully shifted towards US stocks; boosting crypto assets benefits their own survival. So even if this time there was no prior collusion, it is very easy to quickly reach a tacit understanding afterward to form a joint force.
Considering all these factors, the direction points entirely to a mid-term bullish outlook (family interests at least support until November 3, the fiscal circuit is structural, and international demand is spiraling upward). But the trajectory that best fits the political timetable is not a straight rally to the midterm elections. Starting next week, there are many macro windows to be utilized, and there is no reason to waste them.
I believe the smoothest political market path is:
- Reactivate risk appetite and the crypto market in August
- Use PCE, Jackson Hole, and FOMC from late August to September to clean up leverage and restore Federal Reserve credibility
- Repair the market in October based on oil prices and inflation
- Try to keep a better market condition near the November 3 midterm elections
This path benefits all parties:
- Trump gains crypto friendliness and wealth effects
- Walsh gets a chance to demonstrate independence and anti-inflation credibility
- Bassett uses buybacks to prevent the long-term debt market from losing control
- High leverage is regularly cleaned up, avoiding sudden explosions before the election
- Policy tools do not need to be exhausted all at once in August
Therefore, a straight rise from $80,000 to $100,000 is not the only bull market path, and may not even be the path that best aligns with political and fiscal interests.