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Let's chat a bit about tonight's US stock market.
All three major indices opened lower: the Dow fell 0.61%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.29%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.68%. All seven tech giants fell at the open—Nvidia fell 1.68%, Meta 2.49%, Microsoft 1.72%, Tesla 2%, and Amazon 2.46%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index opened down 2%, Nvidia down 1.8%, SanDisk down 2.72%, and Micron and SK Hynix each fell over 2%.
Two core suppressive factors:
First, the U.S. and Iran have clashed again. After the U.S. airstrike on Iran's Larak Island, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard retaliated by launching missiles at U.S. bases. Brent crude approached $92 per barrel, directly pushing up inflation expectations.
Second, rising expectations of rate hikes. After Walsh took a hawkish stance last week, swap market pricing shows a rate hike probability in September has exceeded 60%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.782%, the highest since January this year. High oil prices + high interest rate expectations are doubly suppressing risk assets.
Sector differentiation is also evident—oil and gas stocks bucked the trend and strengthened, with energy ETFs rising about 2%; Technology and semiconductor sectors all declined.
September started off suppressed by both geopolitical and rate hike expectations. Friday's nonfarm payroll data was the real test; big money won't enter the market easily until the data is out.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布, Walsh's policy stance is being put to the test
#BTC高位震荡, enhanced synergy with gold
#财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns are being tested again 📊 $SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Long and short positions repeatedly changed hands throughout the day, with leverage never exceeding 2x — direction unclear, the market makers moderately harvesting in the tug-of-war between longs and shorts
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $19,500 $12,100 $7,425.25
4 hours $386,200 $194,600 $191,600
12 hours $452,200 $247,700 $204,500
24 hours $703,000 $420,400 $282,600
From the SPCX liquidation data, longs held a slight 1.63x advantage in the 1-hour window, with volume approaching $20,000, direction still unclear; the 4-hour long advantage sharply dropped to 1.02x, nearly balanced, but volume surged to $386,200 — both longs and shorts were liquidated simultaneously in the 4-hour window, showing clear bidirectional harvesting characteristics; in 12 hours, longs regained a slight 1.21x advantage, volume rose to $452,200; in 24 hours, longs closed with a 1.49x advantage, long liquidations at $420,400 versus shorts at $282,600, total liquidations exceeded $700,000. Long leverage ratios moved from 1.63x → 1.02x → 1.21x → 1.49x, with a daily amplitude of only 0.6x, showing an N-shaped oscillation trajectory, with longs and shorts changing hands three times but unable to break 2x leverage. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 64.3% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the "Blade" of Data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; Wells Fargo expects an increase of 80,000. July's nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, the worst this year.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times, reaffirming the 2% inflation target as "firm and fixed," stating that if core inflation does not "clearly and quickly" decline, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 60%. If this week's data weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High-Level Volatility: Gold Linkage Continues to Strengthen, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking above $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000.
The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is the "fiat credit revaluation" — in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. Among them, SPDR Gold ETF net inflow was nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $1.5 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. However, after Wash's speech, rising rate hike expectations have suppressed both assets in the short term.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Tests
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year; AI semiconductor revenue target is $16 billion, up over 200% year-over-year, accounting for more than half of total revenue. The company has repeatedly reaffirmed its AI semiconductor revenue target of $56 billion for fiscal 2026 and over $100 billion for fiscal 2027.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company built $16.1 billion in AI servers in Q1, with management guiding about 75% growth in the infrastructure segment in Q2, including about $15.5 billion in AI server revenue. But margin pressure is notable — infrastructure segment operating margin has dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's hawkish "still has work to do" stance — if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. SPCX liquidation data perfectly reflects the "volume contraction squeeze" state before the big event: long leverage never broke 2x all day, the 4-hour window was nearly balanced, and 64.3% concentration indicates most liquidations were completed in the first 12 hours. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm outcome. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Bitcoin spot ETFs have once again seen capital inflows, with a single-day net inflow of $216.7 million, ending the previous day's outflow trend. BlackRock's IBIT product alone absorbed $205.9 million, signaling a return of institutional buying.
Entering September, BTC continues to fluctuate near the high level around $78,000. However, the real risk focus in the market currently is not on ETF capital flows but on the macro factor of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Oil prices have stabilized above $90, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.78%. The market is repricing the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Bitcoin dipped to a low of $77,200 last night, with tightening liquidity expectations continuing to suppress the market. Given the macro-level uncertainties, aggressive short-term trading is not advisable.
There are also favorable signals on the chart: Bitcoin's full-month gain in August reached 24%. During this high-level consolidation phase, the total open interest in perpetual contracts has fallen to the lowest point since May, indicating no speculative leverage overheating in the market.
Going forward, two key thresholds to watch: if the price holds the $77,000 support, the market still has momentum to challenge the $80,000 level; if it breaks below $77,000 effectively, a deeper correction risk needs to be guarded against. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 OpenAI once called advertising a "last resort."
Now, ChatGPT Ads has achieved $1 billion in annualized revenue in less than 200 days and has started to open self-service advertising to India, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. 8ee13d
Reuters
In short, the chat window is becoming the new search box.
Subscriptions charge high-end users, while ads capture the attention of free users.
The real issue to discuss is not "whether there are ads," but: when answers start to include ads, do you still treat ChatGPT as a tool or as media? The EU has just classified ChatGPT as a "very large online search engine."
Note the wording: it's not a chatbot, it's a search engine. b5c8c2
Europa
The threshold is over 45 million monthly active users in the EU. Once this line is crossed, it must undergo the strictest risk assessment under the DSA and complete compliance within about 4 months.
Many people are still debating whether AI will replace Google.
Regulators have already preemptively defined the market: whoever handles "questions" is regulated as a search engine.
In the future, what you find on ChatGPT will increasingly resemble results shaped by regulations.$BTC MicroStrategy has finally started buying coins again! But this time it has changed, what is the real truth behind this change?
Sometimes, I really don't understand MicroStrategy! It always sells at lows and buys at highs.
According to the latest Bitcoin holdings disclosed by MicroStrategy.
From August 24 to August 30, 2026, the company acquired 4,603 bitcoins at an average price of $80,318.
The funds for this Bitcoin purchase mainly came from selling MSTR stock worth $602.8 million, of which $50.7 million was used to pay STRC interest, $367.9 million to buy stock, $151.8 million for post-meeting STRC stock, and $30 million to increase cash liquidity.
In the past, MicroStrategy was financially strong; when it sold stock, it often directly bought Bitcoin in full.
Previous operation mode: financing — buying coins.
Current operation mode: financing — buying coins, saving them, repurchasing stock, paying interest.
This subtle change indicates that although MicroStrategy still remains bullish on Bitcoin, the company's operational structure now faces more complex leverage and funding chain risks than before.
This is MicroStrategy's first Bitcoin purchase after a two-and-a-half-month pause.
This purchase has attracted a lot of attention.
The outside world has mixed opinions about this buying behavior.
Some say it finally came out to support Bitcoin, making up for the negative impact caused by previous sales.
Others say buying so much just increases risk for every investor.
Because everyone could be affected if the company’s heavy position and excessive financing cause asset structure problems, dragging everyone down.
Just like the rumors in March that MicroStrategy would sell Bitcoin, causing the price to plummet wildly.
Then two months ago, it tried selling some coins, and the price dropped again.
This shows how much influence MicroStrategy has on the crypto space.
Now continuing to buy Bitcoin again, total holdings increase further.
Such concerns are inevitable again, after all, it is no longer the crypto faith that swore to only buy and never sell!
Actually, personally, I am less willing to see MicroStrategy buy coins again.
Because, if you see it as a company, the background of the largest shareholder often determines how far the company can go.
If the largest shareholder is a country or a fund with a national background, that kind of endorsement would elevate Bitcoin’s status.
But now, the largest shareholder Satoshi Nakamoto is an unknown figure, the second largest shareholder MicroStrategy buys coins with financing, and the third largest shareholder BlackRock holds funds to buy coins (ETF), basically a large speculator.
So, more and more Bitcoin flowing into their hands will only increase future risks and uncertainties for Bitcoin.
The above is just a personal opinion and not investment advice.
#Strategy与BitMine同步增持 # 比特币 8 月涨了大约 24%，月底在 8 万美元附近震荡。9 月一到，时间线又开始背“九月魔咒”。840ecd
Cryptorank
季节性是统计，不是交易信号。
更值得看的是结构：现货 ETF 资金流有没有转弱、交易所余额在不在高位、杠杆盘是不是比现货更兴奋。
日历不会帮你交易。
这三件事同时变差时，季节性才会变得很狠。
别把“历史上九月不好”听成“所以今天该空”。Many people interpret OpenAI's cutting off from Cursor as Altman and Musk fighting again.
Of course, there are personal grudges.
But what really stands out is another thing:
Cutting-edge models are shifting from "APIs available anywhere" to "strategic resources that can be cut off at any time by adversary, terms, and control."
After SpaceX acquired Cursor, OpenAI notified that the contract would be received by November 12 at the latest, and future models (including Astra) would not be given again 7885ce
OpenAI
Developers used to choose tools based on experience.
Later, we still have to see: which model company's political map you stand on.
The stronger the model, the more distribution rights resemble oil pipelines.
Whoever can be cut off has no real product sovereignty.Many people interpret OpenAI's cutting off from Cursor as Altman and Musk fighting again.
Of course, there are personal grudges.
But what really stands out is another thing:
Cutting-edge models are shifting from "APIs available anywhere" to "strategic resources that can be cut off at any time by adversary, terms, and control."
After SpaceX acquired Cursor, OpenAI notified that the contract would be received by November 12 at the latest, and future models (including Astra) would not be given again 7885ce
OpenAI
Developers used to choose tools based on experience.
Later, we still have to see: which model company's political map you stand on.
The stronger the model, the more distribution rights resemble oil pipelines.
Whoever can be cut off has no real product sovereignty.分析一下XRP吧，这个币大家都比较熟悉:
$XRP 过去两周涨了约40%，从0.99美元拉到1.38美元，但链上数据出现了一个明显的背离——期货总未平仓合约反而下降了16%。
资金在转移阵地。
几乎所有交易所都在削减XRP期货持仓，唯独CME逆势增长约36%，占比从10%升至17%。与此同时，杠杆基金净空头头寸翻倍至约1.16亿枚XRP，而交易商和资管机构则分别增加了约6000万枚和2800万枚净多头。
这个持仓结构很清晰——散户和投机资金在减仓，机构资金在CME上悄悄加码，且多空分歧明显。杠杆基金做空，资管和交易商做多，博弈的核心变量大概率是9月中旬的CLARITY法案参议院程序性投票。
该法案5月通过参议院银行委员会时曾推动XRP上涨约5%。如果9月顺利推进，对XRP的合规预期是一个明确的催化点。但如果卡住，多头预期也会随之落空。
CME持仓占比飙升，往往意味着机构正在为某个事件提前布局。XRP这波涨的不是基本面，是政策预期。9月中旬之前，这个逻辑会持续发酵。但投票落地后，不管是利好兑现还是不及预期，都需要重新评估方向The Cook era ends, and I am heavily long Apple at $323 — why?
On the first day of Apple's leadership change, the stock price surged above 325. I placed a long order at 323 and am currently in profit. Three solid reasons.
Technical: The price started rising from 315 at open, faced resistance at 326, then pulled back to stabilize at the MA5 moving average at 323. The MACD shows a golden cross with expanding red bars, indicating the bullish trend is not over. RSI is overbought, but the first pullback after a volume-driven rally is often a safe entry point.
Catalyst: The September launch event combined with the leadership change has the market pricing in a premium. This year there is an additional variable with a new CEO's debut.
Core: The AI strategy may undergo a qualitative change. During the Cook era, Apple's AI has always "borrowed" from others. Ternus, with a hardware background and experience on VisionPro, understands edge AI implementation better. Delivering truly useful edge AI on the iPhone could lift the valuation another level.
Risk: RSI is overbought, and the leadership change positive has mostly been priced in. The real test is at the September launch event.
Action: The 20x leveraged position is not heavy. Hold if the pullback does not break 320; exit if it does. Target is 335-340.
Leadership change is a big deal, but don't get carried away — the new CEO's first launch event is the real moment to bet on. I'm getting on board first and buckling up.
$AAPL $xAAPL
#苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The hardest part of this market isn't the poor data, but that the performance isn't bad enough.
The US August ISM Manufacturing PMI was only 54.6, below the expected 55.2 and down a notch from July's 55.6.
Manufacturing is still expanding, but the pace is clearly slow. For the market, this data is the most exhausting: growth is starting to cool down, but not weak enough to force the Fed to turn dovish immediately.
$BTC The price is grinding around 77,800; $XAU More direct, it plunged all the way to 4,369 within 4 hours, dropping nearly 2% intraday. Both assets are being hit together; I think the core issue is still interest rate expectations.
Later, JOLTS, ADP, Primary, and Nonfarm Payrolls took the table one after another, and Walsh's hawkish stance must be truly tested.
If employment continues to cool, the market will re-bet on policy easing, giving BTC and gold a chance to catch their breath; But if employment remains strong and inflation remains unabated, this wave of pressure may not be over yet.
I'm not guessing the bottom right now, just focusing on whether employment data can truly suppress interest rate expectations.
$ZEC
#就业数据密集公布, Wash's policy stance is being tested #BTC高位震荡, and its linkage with gold is strengthening 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
The bulls dominated the day in extreme moderation, but the multiples collapsed from 174 to 40 times—the short squeeze was barely a breath left, and the bears began to show signs at the close
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $327.35 $170.28 $157.06
4 hours $6,404.36 $6,247.30 $157.06
12 hours: $27,500 $27,400 $157.27
24 hours: $112,800 $110,000 $2,754.09
From LAB's liquidation data, 1-hour long positions controlled the market with a narrow 1.08x advantage, almost completely balanced, with a scale of only $327; 4-hour bulls were extremely crushed by 39.8x, soaring to $6,404, with short liquidations almost stagnant; 12-hour long advantage soared to 174x, with long positions liquidated at $27,400 and short positions at only $157.27, with short squeezes continuing to ferment with nuclear explosion-level intensity; 24-hour long advantage sharply dropped to 39.9x, with long liquidations at $110,000 versus bears at $2,754, cumulative liquidations exceeding $112,800. Bull multiples ranged from 1.08x → 39.8x to 174x → 174x →to 39.9x, forming an inverted V-shaped trajectory, with a second burst of short squeeze momentum followed by an avalanche exhaustion. 12-hour liquidations account for only 24.4% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration and indicating that pressure from liquidations continues to be released at the close—shorts jumped from $157 to $2,754, a 17-fold increase, with shorts being targeted liquidations, but the overall advantage of bulls remains huge. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; the direction is clear but momentum is severely exhausted, so do not blindly chase long positions.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1st
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Walsh's hawkish tone is about to undergo the final test of employment data, Bitcoin and gold are deeply interlinked under "fiat credit revaluation," and Broadcom and Dell's earnings reports will take turns verifying the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Take the Stage on Friday: Can Wash's "Eagles" Withstand the "Knife" of Stats?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the U.S. August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys estimate an increase of 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%; Wells Fargo expects an increase of 80,000. Meanwhile, the July nonfarm payroll shock unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 jobs, the worst of the year.
Just last week, Federal Reserve Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech in Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times and reiterating that the 2% inflation target is "firm and fixed," and said that if underlying inflation does not fall "clearly and quickly enough," the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September soared from about 35% before the speech to 60%. If this week's data weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC Fluctuates at High Levels: Gold Linkage Continues to Strengthen, ₿7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, briefly breaking through $81,000, but pulled back after hawkish comments from Walsh, currently fluctuating between $78,000 and $79,000.
The core logic behind the previous synchronized rally is "fiat credit revaluation"—over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a record $7 billion in inflows. Among them, the SPDR Gold ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $3.4 billion, and the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.5 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin, but instead buy both types of "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. However, after Walsh's speech, expectations for rate hikes surged, putting short-term pressure on both asset classes.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns are being tested again
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, this week marks a new round of testing in the AI hardware sector.
Broadcom will release its Q3 earnings report after market close on September 2. The market expects revenue to be around $29.4 billion, an 84% year-on-year increase; AI semiconductor revenue targets $16 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 200%, accounting for more than half of total revenue. The company has previously reiterated its AI semiconductor revenue target of $56 billion for fiscal year 2026, with plans to exceed $100 billion in fiscal year 2027.
Dell will release its Q2 earnings report after market close on September 1. The company built $16.1 billion worth of AI servers in Q1, and management forecasts that the infrastructure segment will grow about 75% in Q2, with AI server revenue around $15.5 billion. However, margin pressure cannot be ignored—the infrastructure segment's operating margin has dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: this Friday, the nonfarm payrolls will test Walsh's hawkish stance of "still working to be done"—if employment weakens further, the 60% rate hike expectation could quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record-breaking $7 billion ETF influx; Broadcom and Dell's earnings reports will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns, with profit margin pressures becoming a new focus.
When employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week—the market is waiting for the final answer on September 4. LAB's liquidation data reveals a typical characteristic of small-cap stocks before major events: the long multiple has collapsed from an extreme peak of 174 times to 40 times, combined with a low concentration of 24.4%, indicating that after the dog farm cleared its market during the day, it started harvesting the bulls again at the close—a muted frog-like two-way harvest. The overall direction still depends on the implementation of nonfarm payrolls. #就业数据密集公布, Walsh's policy stance is being tested
#BTC高位震荡, enhanced synergy with gold
#财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns are being tested again $MU is sitting around $955.80, close to the $1,000 psychological level. The AI-memory story is still strong. Micron just posted record fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46B, and the company has already scheduled its next earnings report for September 30. But here’s the part I’m watching today: Taiwan-based unions representing nearly 10,000 Micron workers are threatening strike action over the company’s bonus structure. With Taiwan being a major manufacturing hub for Micron, this adds a real near-term e🔥 Brief Understanding: US August ISM Manufacturing PMI Released
The latest US August ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.6
This was below the expected value of 55.2, down from July's 55.6
In short:
🔥 This data is used to assess whether business at U.S. factories is good
The August reading was 54.6, slightly below market expectations
⚠️ But note, as long as the value is greater than 50,
This means manufacturing is still making money and expanding
🐢 It's just that the pace of expansion has slowed recently
Over the past five months, U.S. factories have been in a state of expansion
💪 However, the momentum of this month's recovery has not been as strong as everyone expected
This event cannot be considered a major positive or negative development
➕ Economic growth slowed slightly
The Fed's willingness to raise interest rates will weaken slightly
➖ But the economy hasn't worsened
So rate cuts are basically out of the question
Whether interest rates will be raised or not
Still depends on the "price and employment data coming up"
😱 This news only briefly eases everyone's panic
It cannot trigger a major market rally
🤔 Will it affect nonfarm payroll data?
Very small! Manufacturing employment accounts for only a small portion; the service sector is the main force
The Fed still has to wait for core data such as nonfarm payrolls and CPI
Then decide on the direction of interest rates
$BTC Still at the 80,000 mark
$ETH Still at the 2500 mark
As for me, I forgot about $SNDK because I was watching $ENA
Without any fluctuations, ENA also broke free and exited......
#就业数据密集公布, Walsh's policy stance is being put to the test 今日大额解锁3950万枚！再质押老大哥EigenLayer宣布战略重组：转型AI云能自救吗？
以太坊再质押（Restaking）赛道的领头羊 EigenLayer，今天迎来了代币经济学与战略方向的双重决战时刻。
9 月 1 日，EigenLayer 正式解锁了约 3950 万枚 EIGEN 代币，主要面向早期投资机构与核心贡献者。面对币价从历史高位大幅回落以及再质押收益率内卷的现实，官方团队在解锁同日抛出了一颗定心丸——全面转型为「EigenCloud」可验证云计算平台。
这次战略大转向的核心逻辑在于：
第一，跳出单一的以太坊生态内卷。传统再质押只局限于为跨链桥或预言机提供经济安全，而 EigenCloud 将这套数百亿美元的质押安全池，直接赋能给 AI 推理验证、数据可用性（EigenDA）以及链下去中心化算力；
第二，用真实的 AI 商业需求重塑代币价值。让持有 EIGEN 的用户能够直接从全球 AI 开发者支付的可验证计算费用中获得真实分红，摆脱以往空头画饼的纯通胀叙事。
老大哥断臂求生拥抱 AI，是再质押赛道成熟的必然一步。 Reviewing the books from the past two months, the real losses were not due to frequent trial and error in counterfeit contracts, but the deep drawdowns in two heavily held positions: $LAB and $BEAT. This made me realize that relying solely on price position is far from enough to open trades, especially when dealing with instruments with unlimited volatility, where stop-loss discipline often becomes meaningless. Next, I will gradually shift my trading focus to spot trading and have recently been monitoring the trends of platform coins like HYPE, OKB, and BNB. Although each has potential, considering BTC's current price range, the risk of capital outflows remains a concern. $OKB The circulating market cap is relatively low; if a full adjustment can be completed, the odds for spot entry may be more favorable; while $HYPE and $BNB have relatively full market caps, so the efficiency of further chasing higher prices may be limited. Rather than repeatedly testing emotional boundaries within contracts, consider whether spot investment can bring a more stable compound interest experience. The market is never short of opportunities, but controlling drawdowns and preserving principal is often closer to long-term profitability than chasing short-term breakouts. Risk warning: Crypto asset prices are highly volatile. Please rationally assess your own tolerance. This article does not constitute investment advice $OKB#苹果换帅: Ternus took over as CEO
To be honest: Apple replaced CEO Ternus, officially announced in April, and a smooth handover. If it wasn't a sudden positive news, the market had already been chewed through.
Looking at $AAPL, today (9.1) it surged to 324.79, +2.51%, breaking through the Bollinger upper band, MACD golden cross, 5/10/20 daily moving averages all underfoot, volume ratio 2.77, funds early stuck at 9.9 foldable + iPhone 18 launch event.
Mid-term Brother's Perspective: The direction is on the upper side, but following a "expectations first" approach doesn't mean blindly going long.
Bull Players: Ternus is a hardware veteran, with iPad/Silicon products both launched by him. The market is now "product-driven people returning," and on-device AI stories are sexier than Cook's supply chain, with service businesses backing the bottom. Bear Players: 37x PE is not cheap, AI lags behind Google and Microsoft as clear cards. Historical scripts often "pull before release, sell facts on the same day," and the 324 position is vulnerable to collapse.
There is hope for a mid-term upward trend, but don't chase 325-330; a pullback to 315-318 is more comfortable; If volume increases and the price holds steady at 330, watch institutional circles at 365-400; this drop below 310 is just a fake move.
Focus on the key points from the September 9 launch + October earnings gross profit, everything else is just noise.
$ETH and $BTC continue to fluctuate today, almost there!!
#BTC高位震荡, enhanced synergy with gold Everyone is watching XRP’s rebound. I’m watching whether $1.33 holds. The fresh catalyst is interesting: Ripple has expanded its institutional infrastructure in Asia Pacific through a new partnership with SettleMint, while XRP ETF demand has remained resilient. But there’s an easy detail to miss. Ripple released 1B XRP from escrow today. Much of the supply is typically re-escrowed, so this doesn't automatically mean selling — but it creates a short-term supply overhang exactly while XRP is tryi#苹果换帅: Ternus took over as CEO
Trauss's challenge is clear—Apple needs an answer in the AI era, and it needs to be given quickly.
Apple has long been considered lagging behind in the AI race, with Microsoft and Google leading the way, but Apple hasn't yet presented a decent card. Trauss comes from a hardware background; whether he can truly integrate AI functions with hardware will determine Apple's position in the next decade. Vision Pro is his creation, but the market response has been lukewarm. AI hasn't been implemented yet; Apple needs a new direction.
For the crypto world, there are two lines worth pondering about this matter.
First, Apple's AI strategy directly affects the sentiment of the entire tech sector. If Apple can make substantial progress on AI, the entire tech sector will be repriced, and crypto as a high-beta asset will benefit accordingly. If Apple continues to stall in AI, tech stocks will come under pressure, and crypto will not escape either.
Second, whether Apple will venture into crypto payments or digital assets. During the Cook era, Apple has always "watched but didn't get involved" in crypto, and Apple Pay still hasn't supported crypto payments. Whether Truss will change this direction after taking over is still unknown. Samsung is already doing it, and whether Apple will follow is a bigger variable than any technological upgrade.
Let me share my thoughts.
Apple's leadership change has no direct impact on BTC. But how Apple moves in the AI era determines the overall sentiment in the tech sector. Liquidity in the crypto market is highly correlated with the sentiment of tech stocks; if Apple makes the right move, the whole market benefits. If it makes the wrong move, everyone bears the burden together. The United States and Iran have once again engaged in direct military conflict, and Trump has threatened further strikes on Iran, causing tensions in the Middle East to escalate again.
Normally, the $XAU script should be like this: war escalation → everyone seeks safe havens → buying gold → gold surges.
But this time the script is somewhat different: war escalation → increased risk in Hormuz → BZ, $CL crude oil prices rise → energy inflation risk rises → Fed finds it harder to ease interest rate policy → global bond yields rise → gold falls.
Both scenarios make sense, but currently, the second scenario clearly dominates: the market's fear of inflation outweighs the demand for safe havens, and the rising Middle East tensions have become a negative factor for gold.
This also reminds us again that many things have two sides; the market was trading war safe havens yesterday, but today it may shift to trading inflation and rate hikes; understanding the underlying logic behind these event trades and preparing corresponding plans is essential to be ready for similar events in the future 🫡$BTC $ETH 📊
The market is currently stuck in a messy phase of high-level consolidation + short-squeeze rebound + macro pressure.
$BTC continues to chop between $78K–$79K, briefly reaching around $79.2K on September 1 before pulling back.
Over the past 24 hours, roughly $150M–$440M in positions were liquidated across the market, with shorts taking most of the damage. That looks more like a classic short squeeze than a move driven by fresh capital entering the market. 🔥
Meanwhile, spot BTC ETF inflows broke their nine-day streak, with around $200M in net outflows on August 28, suggesting institutional buying momentum has weakened significantly.
The macro picture is also creating additional pressure:
📈 10Y U.S. Treasury yield: ~4.76%
📈 September rate-hike probability: above 65%
💧 Tokenized U.S. stocks continue competing for market liquidity
$ETH managed to rebound alongside Bitcoin toward $2,470, but its strength remains weaker than the broader market. Altcoins are also struggling to attract meaningful volume.
⚠️ My Current View
No volume + limited fresh liquidity + hawkish macro = a fragile rebound.
Until $BTC can convincingly break and hold above the $79K–$80K zone, I’m treating this bounce as potentially part of a larger downward continuation rather than the start of a new leg higher.
If resistance continues to hold, the next major area I’m watching is around $76K. 🎯
This is my personal market view, not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation 前面我其实聊过一次 BTC 的 50 周均线，但这两天我重新把历史拉出来看了一遍以后，我觉得还得把另外一个指标一起加进来：50 Week MA + Weekly Supertrend。 这两个东西叠在一起看，比单独盯着 8 万、ETF 流入或者某一天涨了多少，要有意思得多 先看过去 2015 年 10 月，$BTC 在 280 美元附近重新收复 50 周均线，随后 Weekly Supertrend 也完成长周期翻多。 后面大家都知道了。 $BTC 从几百美元一路走到 2017 年接近 2 万美元，那一轮真正的大牛市也就是从这个阶段慢慢启动的。 Galaxy 的历史统计也显示，2015 年那次重新站上 50W MA 后，价格连续 135 周维持在这条线上方。 2018 年底 BTC 跌到 3000 多美元以后，2019 年 5 月再次重新收复 50W MA，当周价格大概只有 5800 美元。 仅仅一个多月以后，BTC 就冲到了接近 1.4 万美元，涨幅超过一倍。 2022 年那轮熊市更典型\BTC 最低跌到 1.5 万多美元，Weekly Supertrend 在 2023 年初重新Market Brief: SNDK MSCI Inclusion Catalyst Market Interpretation
Market Overview
SNDK experiences a significant surge, primarily driven by its official inclusion in the MSCI Global Index. This is compounded by the long-term AI storage narrative, Japan's capacity expansion plans, and positive earnings data, creating multiple favorable factors resonating together. Institutions generally hold a bullish stance, with target prices indicating upward expectations.
At the same time, posts objectively warn of risks: the passive buying from MSCI index inclusion is short-term in nature, the stock price has entered a high valuation range, and there is pressure for a pullback; earnings will also be affected by domestic market demand and NAND flash memory cycle fluctuations. Screenshots also show some short-term accounts with 30-day returns soaring several times, with extremely strong profit potential under high leverage.
Market Logic
MSCI inclusion brings passive capital allocation from index funds, which is an event-driven catalyst that will boost the stock price in the short term. However, once passive funds complete their allocation, this buying pressure will fade, and the market cannot rely solely on this event.
AI storage represents a medium- to long-term industry logic, but storage itself is a highly cyclical sector. NAND price fluctuations directly impact corporate profits, and after the concentrated realization of positive factors, high valuations become fragile.
The exaggerated short-term returns of high-leverage accounts result from the market's dividend, but on the other hand, it also means that once the cycle reverses or the event-driven benefits dissipate, the drawdown damage will be equally severe.
Trading Insights
Distinguish between event-driven and long-term industry logic; index inclusion is a short-term catalyst and should not be considered the sole reason for sustained price increases. ETF inflows slow down, gold surges, beware of the risk of bullish and bearish switches in the crypto market📉
Recently, the net inflow scale of BTC ETFs has declined, gold has sharply risen stimulated by macro data, and safe-haven funds have begun to reallocate, causing a significant shift in long and short positions in crypto futures markets.
Although $BTC still has institutional support, the weakening incremental inflow reveals increasing resistance above; $ETH is squeezed by both macro and ecosystem factors, expanding its volatility range, with pullbacks often stronger than BTC; $ZEC relies on privacy narratives and may show independent short-term pulses amid rising risk-off sentiment, but it is difficult to break free from overall market constraints.
The strengthening of gold directly suppresses risk asset sentiment; even if ETFs are still flowing in, it cannot stop short-term selling pressure release. Do not stubbornly hold long futures positions, nor open heavy short positions just because gold is surging.
Once ETFs turn to sustained outflows combined with a pullback from gold's highs, the market can easily experience a rapid sell-off. Treat spot positions in batches and strictly control leverage in futures; in a volatile market, double-sided liquidations are most likely.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Before going to bed, I placed a short order on $BTC at 79200. When I woke up and checked the market, I was already up a few hundred U. The take profit is set at 78100; I’m not greedy, I’ll exit once the profit is decent. This order was opened around 79150, and now it’s fluctuating around 78500, so the profit margin is still okay.
The most obvious thing in last night’s market was the sudden increase in selling pressure above 79300. After a spike, the volume couldn’t keep up, and it directly retracted to the previous dense trading zone. I treat this as a short-term pullback, not a trend reversal, so I’ll exit at 78100. Taking a smaller profit is better than getting pulled back. Shorting in a bull market is inherently against the trend, so it’s best to take profits when you can.
Gold is still used as a sentiment thermometer here. With the US and Iran clashing again, oil prices broke through $90, and inflation expectations remain high, making it hard for gold to weaken completely. But the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 4.75%, and the high interest rates have sealed off upside potential. It’s a high-level consolidation, difficult to break either way.
I still don’t dare to short ZEC recklessly. Although there was a wave of profit-taking after the ETF launch, the privacy sector’s heat hasn’t cooled down. ZEC rose more than 4 points today to $853, with strong support at high levels, so an independent rally may continue.
This time I’m only taking profit on this $BTC segment, see you at 78100, and I’ll exit once it’s reached.
$BTC
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解 9月1日，新加坡金管局（MAS）启动稳定币监管修法咨询，准备把2023年的框架进一步写进《支付服务法》。 核心就几个字：储备要真、赎回要快、发行要合规。 🔹 100%储备支持 🔹 按面值赎回 🔹 禁止向稳定币持有人付息 🔹 部分符合条件的境外稳定币，也可能获得MAS认可 🔹 非MAS监管稳定币仍将按数字支付代币监管 而且这次只是咨询阶段，意见征集截止到10月16日，并非新规已经全面生效。 这对 $USDT / $USDC 都是个信号： 未来稳定币拼的可能不只是市值，而是谁能拿到更多监管通行证。 USDT流动性依然巨大，但合规覆盖正在变成新的竞争维度；USDC这类更偏合规路线的稳定币，可能更容易进入机构结算和传统金融场景。 更有意思的是，今天又传出21家大型金融机构计划在2027年前推出美元稳定币，包括高盛、美国银行、花旗和德银。传统金融正在亲自下场。 所以我更关注的不是“USDT会不会消失”，而是： 稳定币正在从交易工具，变成金融基础设施。 而BTC的定位反而越来越清晰—— 稳定币负责支付、结算和流动性，BTC负责稀缺性和价值储存。 $BTC $USDT $USDC #Bit📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Bears dominated all day with extreme pressure, volume very small but highly concentrated—whales completed targeted clearing on KAITO, but the scale was negligible.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $206.68 $206.68 $0
4 hours $13,700 $13,400 $337.12
12 hours $22,800 $22,500 $340.35
24 hours $25,400 $24,900 $548.33
From KAITO liquidation data, bears monopolized all liquidations in 1 hour, with long liquidations at $206.68 and shorts at 0, starting with extreme short squeeze pressure but at a probing volume; at 4 hours bears maintained an extreme 39.7x pressure, volume rose to $13,700; at 12 hours bear advantage expanded to 66x, volume rose to $22,800, short squeeze momentum peaked; at 24 hours bear advantage narrowed to 45.4x at close, long liquidations $24,900 vs. shorts $548.33, total liquidation only $25,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for 89.8% of the 24-hour total, showing very high concentration—large-scale liquidations almost all occurred in the first 12 hours, with almost no increase at the end. Bear multiples followed an inverted V pattern from extreme pressure → 39.7x → 66x → 45.4x, indicating short squeeze momentum rose then fell. Although bears were highly aligned, the 24-hour total liquidation was only $25,400, volume in a "probing" range, indicating extremely thin contract liquidity where small funds in any direction can cause multiple extra slippage. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; direction is clear but volume too small, avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Friday Debut: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.1%; Wells Fargo expects an 80,000 increase. July nonfarm unexpectedly dropped by 23,000, the worst this year.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times, reaffirming the 2% inflation target as "firm and fixed," stating if core inflation does not "clearly and quickly" fall, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows September rate hike probability jumped from about 35% before the speech to 60%. If this week's data weakens again, the 60% hike expectation may quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Strengthens, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000.
The core logic driving the prior synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF net inflow nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF net inflow $1.5 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. However, rate hike expectations rose after Wash's speech, suppressing both assets short term.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Under Further Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% YoY; AI semiconductor revenue target $16 billion, up over 200% YoY, accounting for more than half of total revenue. The company has repeatedly reaffirmed a $56 billion AI semiconductor revenue target for fiscal 2026, exceeding $100 billion in fiscal 2027.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company built $16.1 billion in AI servers in Q1; management guides Q2 infrastructure segment growth around 75%, with AI server revenue about $15.5 billion. But margin pressure is notable—the infrastructure segment operating margin dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkishness—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week—the market awaits the final answer on September 4. KAITO's liquidation data is a typical "liquidity trap" sample: bears exert 66x extreme leverage to clear longs, but total 24-hour liquidation is only $25,400, showing small funds in any direction can create extreme data in thin liquidity. Such contract liquidation signals before major events have almost no reference value for the broader market. Control your risk and wait for nonfarm to land. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $CRV up +12.7% in one day, the DeFi sector is going crazy along with ARB, why can it also rise?
Today is not just ARB's market, (CRV,) UNI, and $OP are all rising, the entire DeFi sector is lifting together.
Why is CRV following? Three reasons:
1: Money is moving from Bitcoin to DeFi.
$BTC hasn't moved much today, but ARB, CRV, UNI—these DeFi coins are pulling up. Some analysts call it "smart money rotation"—Bitcoin stays still, funds flow into DeFi with room for catch-up gains, and CRV benefits from the sector's dividend.
2: Shorts are being forced to cover.
When CRV rises, contract open interest is decreasing—shorts panic and cover, which in turn pushes the price up, a classic short squeeze. The faster it rises, the quicker the pace.
3: Technical levels have been broken.
CRV was stuck below $0.33 a few days ago, today it broke above and returned to the main moving averages, technical traders chase the breakout.
In short: CRV today relies half on sector sentiment and half on a short squeeze. No big news, it’s the type that "follows ARB to profit."
Reminder: Rotating money comes fast and goes fast, don’t chase at the tail end. Currently in a tangled phase of "high-level oscillation + short squeeze rebound + macro suppression." BTC fluctuates repeatedly in the 78,000–79,000 range, reaching a high of 79,200 intraday on 9/1 before falling back. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated about 150–440 million USD, mainly short positions, a typical short squeeze without incremental entry.
Spot ETF inflows ended on the ninth day, with a net outflow of about 200 million USD on 8/28, and institutional buying nearly halted; 10Y US Treasury yield at 4.76%, September rate hike probability over 65%, and US stock tokenization continues to divert liquidity. ETH rebounded with BTC to around 2,470 but weaker than the broader market, altcoins lack volume.
Overall, no volume, no fresh liquidity, macro is hawkish; the rebound is seen as a downward continuation, failure to break 79–80k still points to a retest of 76k. $SOL The real change has arrived It's no longer just supported by Meme coins Today I saw a set of Solana data, and I think it's more worth paying attention to than the short-term price fluctuations of $SOL. Although Solana network revenue in the first half of this year dropped 87% year-on-year, the underlying structure has completely changed: the proportion of Meme coins in spot trading volume dropped from 40% to 16%, while stablecoins rose from 6% to 19%. Even more striking, Solana now accountsSTRC buybacks reached $635 million. Is Saylor saving his high-yield bonds, or is he playing another big game? The bulls on the big cake are dead. Saylor really went all out this time. Strategy has already invested $635.2 million to buy back its own STRC preferred shares. The latest purchase is another $151.8 million, at an average price of $97.48. I really want to know: is this guy really rich, or is it just watching STRC drop below $100 and getting itchy? STRC, to put it bluntly, is a high-yield preferred stock Strategy uses for financing. The company issues it, investors get interest, Strategy gets the money, and then they start their own Bitcoin venture. But now there's an awkward problem: STRC is worth $100, but now it's just over $97. It's like opening a nightclub with tickets priced at $100, but customers are only willing to pay $97. Saylor saw that MD wasn't up to par and realized he couldn't afford to lose face, so he started buying it himself. Even more bold, Strategy isn't just making a small move—they already offered $1 billion in buybacks, but now they've spent $635 million. But here's a key issue: the company spends so much money to support STRC's price, which means it can't be used to buy a big pie. So now it's interesting: is Saylor maintaining the stability of the funding machine, or is he using real money to keep STRC alive? If STRC slowly returns to around $100, then this strategy can still be sustained$USELESS
Regarding USELESS, it turns "uselessness" into a narrative, using highly controversial expressions to teach a lesson to the crypto market: the ultimate narrative of Meme coins is a complete deconstruction of "practical value."
· 🎭 Narrative: Openly "useless": It inherits the spirit of UET, which raised $300,000 and openly admitted "we are useless." This honesty of embracing "meaninglessness" has ironically become a unique "value storage" gimmick in the restless market, even printing its logo on Atlético Madrid's jerseys.
· 🐳 Tokens: A highly controlled game: On-chain analysis shows early "insider" holdings account for about 16.12% of the supply. Although the official stance denies an absolute "conspiracy group" control, 25,000 addresses hold the remaining tokens, with the largest whale holding 2.82% and never selling, indicating very concentrated holdings.
· 📈 Market performance: Strong endorsements by KOLs: The driving force behind it is the well-known KOL BonkGuy, who once turned $16,000 into $20 million. He claims USELESS's rise from $4 million to $450 million last year was just a "test pump," strongly promoting a bigger bull market.
· ⚠️ Risks: Hidden liquidity traps: Although currently supported by whales and "diamond hands," early low-cost large holders and related clusters are still distributing tokens. Once the narrative cools down or BonkGuy shifts focus, this token, which heavily relies on community faith and KOL hype, is highly prone to a crash.
Overall, USELESS is a blatant financial market performance art. It tells you "I'm useless," yet continuously reinforces "consensus" through listings on major exchanges, jersey ads, and other actions. You can see it as a satire of traditional "pragmatism," but in this game, every penny you earn comes from the recognition by bag holders of the belief "knowing it's useless but still choosing to buy."Many people apply the previous surge logic to $BTC now, but they haven't considered the policy environment back then: interest rate cuts plus Bitcoin strategic reserves. And now? All the driving forces behind this round of rise have disappeared and don't hold up. ETF delays, interest rate hikes in the US and Japan, the highly anticipated bill has less than a 20% chance of passing. There's no macro support for the current market. On the micro level, rapid price hikes prevent retail investors from getting in, yet they expect retail investors to take over at the high point. The calculations are loud, but no matter what, it's basically a downtrend. I don't know what those various analysts predicting a rise are thinking or why they say so. Most likely, they have income sources unknown to the public.- The leader has something to say
Robinhood Chain has been online for less than two months, with DEX daily volume reaching $1.33 billion, ranking second in the entire chain, only behind Solana. TVL is only $725 million, but the trading volume is nearly twice the TVL, showing astonishing capital efficiency.
Dune data shows that the Meme pairing with crypto stocks has had a trading volume exceeding stock tokens for 4 consecutive days. On August 31, Meme trading volume was $93.1 million, stock tokens $91.4 million; Meme surpassed real assets for the first time.
The gameplay has changed. Previously, the other side of the Meme pool was SOL or ETH; now it directly pairs with stock tokens like NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, SPCX. Buying Meme paired with crypto stocks is like a double bet: betting that Meme will outperform stocks and also betting on the USD price fluctuations of the stocks themselves.
Robinhood has 80 million retail users and 16 million crypto users, with ready distribution capability. Pons launchpad issues about 22,600 tokens daily, and the Meme sector's market cap is about $560 million. Meme paired with crypto stocks is helping to channel RWA assets.
The real test is whether this volume can be maintained after the Meme tide recedes.
Holding over 78,100 long on BTC, stop loss at 76,000, target 80,500 to 81,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL Nonfarm Payroll Data Analysis for $BTC $ETH This Friday
Risk Warning: The following is only a macro logic deduction and does not constitute investment advice.
Transmission Mechanism
The Nonfarm Employment Report adjusts the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations through three sub-items: new employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, driving changes in the US Dollar Index and US Treasury real yields, which in turn affect global risk asset pricing. Bitcoin is constrained by both liquidity opportunity cost and market risk appetite. Volatility will significantly increase before and after the data release, and the derivatives market is prone to Whipsaw movements with spikes and bidirectional liquidations. Wage growth is the core observation variable.
Multiple Scenario Interpretations
1. Nonfarm and wages both exceed expectations (hot data)
Labor market strength confirms economic resilience, the market lowers rate cut pricing, US Treasury yields and the dollar rise. The opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets increases, BTC faces short-term downward pressure, contract longs face concentrated liquidation risk, bearish factors dominate market trends.
2. Nonfarm significantly weakens, wages cool down simultaneously (cold data)
Employment marginally weakens, traders price in rate cuts in advance, the dollar and US Treasury yields decline, liquidity expectations improve, risk appetite rises, $BTC gains upward catalysts. However, if data deteriorates sharply causing hard recession fears, funds shift to safe-haven assets, bullish logic fails, and BTC retraces along with risk assets.
3. Data meets consensus expectations
Macro pricing anchors remain unchanged, nonfarm impact is limited, BTC trends return to its own technical structure, ETF fund flows, and contract position structure.📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Bulls controlled the market during the day but momentum continued to wane, with bears overtaking at 2.28x in the closing session — the dog traders completed a mild two-way harvest on HYPE.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $58,300 $52,400 $5,909.93
4 hours $172,200 $93,800 $78,400
12 hours $635,700 $457,600 $178,100
24 hours $2,374,300 $724,500 $1,649,800
From the HYPE liquidation data, bulls crushed bears by 8.87x in 1 hour, forcing a strong short squeeze start, with volume approaching $60,000; the 4-hour bull advantage sharply dropped to 1.2x, nearly balanced, but volume surged to $172,200; at 12 hours bulls pulled ahead again by 2.57x, with volume exploding to $635,700; at 24 hours the direction reversed — bears closed with a 2.28x advantage, short liquidations soared to $1,649,800, long liquidations $724,500, with total liquidations exceeding $2.37 million. Bull multiples shifted from 8.87x → 1.2x → 2.57x → bear 2.28x, showing a V-shaped reversal crossing equilibrium. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for only 26.8% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration and that liquidation pressure continued to release in the closing session. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish stance is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Friday Debut: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.1%; Wells Fargo expects an increase of 80,000. July nonfarm unexpectedly dropped by 23,000, the worst this year.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times, reaffirming the 2% inflation target as "firm and fixed," stating that if core inflation does not "clearly and quickly" decline, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 60%. If this week's data weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Strengthens, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000.
The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation" — in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF net inflow nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF net inflow $1.5 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. However, after Wash's speech, rate hike expectations rose, suppressing both assets in the short term.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% YoY; AI semiconductor revenue target $16 billion, up over 200% YoY, accounting for more than half of total revenue. The company has repeatedly reaffirmed its AI semiconductor revenue target of $56 billion for fiscal 2026 and over $100 billion for fiscal 2027.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company built $16.1 billion in AI servers in Q1; management guides Q2 infrastructure segment growth of about 75%, with AI server revenue around $15.5 billion. But profit margin pressure is notable — infrastructure segment operating margin dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkishness — if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. Meanwhile, HYPE liquidation data has already signaled: bulls repeatedly tried to control the market during the day but multiples never held above 3x; bears mildly overtook at 2.28x in the closing session; plus a low 26.8% concentration indicates liquidation pressure persisted all day rather than in a single wave — the market is in a typical "volume contraction squeeze" before a major event. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm outcome. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 CRV Circulation Rate 51%, Core Analysis of a Watchlist Ratio as High as 68%
Basic Data
CRV maximum total supply: 3.03 billion; circulating supply about 1.54 billion, circulation rate 51%.
Within the circulation, nearly half of the CRV is locked by users into the veCRV contract to exchange for dividends and governance rights. Locked tokens are counted in the "circulating supply," but cannot be directly sold on exchanges.
✅ Why is the circulation rate only 51%, but the watchlist (added to watchlist) ratio as high as 68%?
1. The watchlist ratio represents market attention and is unrelated to how many tokens are unlocked.
Watchlist ratio statistics: how many users on the platform add CRV to their watchlist, reflecting how many traders are tracking and researching this token. It only represents popularity and does not consider whether all tokens are unlocked.
Even if nearly half of the tokens are not yet released, as long as many users are optimistic about the DeFi stablecoin sector and follow the crvUSD narrative, they will add it to their watchlist, so the watchlist ratio can be very high.
2. veCRV locking culture, accumulating a large amount of long-term faith tokens
CRV's unique ve locking model means many holders actively lock their unlocked circulating CRV for 1-4 years to receive fee dividends and governance voting rights.
- Statistically, locked CRV is still counted in the [circulating supply], but holders will not sell it on exchanges.
- This group belongs to a firm long-term community, all of whom add CRV to their watchlist for continuous tracking, pushing up the watchlist ratio.
Phenomenon: The nominal circulating supply is not small, but the freely tradable tokens for dumping are fewer; meanwhile, the base of long-term holders is large, and attention remains high.
3. Established DeFi blue chip with a solid user base
Curve is a veteran DeFi project and leader in the stablecoin trading sector, having experienced multiple bull and bear cycles.
Many early DeFi investors have long kept CRV in their watchlists; combined with the crvUSD, LlamaLend, and RWA narratives, it continuously attracts new traders' attention, steadily raising the watchlist ratio.
4. Nearly 49% of tokens are not circulating yet, and the team cannot dump immediately
The non-circulating portion mainly consists of liquidity mining rewards released continuously over the next several decades, not a one-time unlock. Inflation decays by 16% annually, releasing slowly without short-term concentrated dumping.
Non-circulating ≠ market disapproval; users can still add it to their watchlist for observation. SanDisk opened low and rose high, storage sector sentiment warming up
SanDisk opened today at $1525.60, about 2.6% lower than yesterday's close of $1566.70. Pre-market it once dropped over 2.5% to $1527, then quickly rallied after the open, trading around $1564 before midnight Beijing time, narrowing the decline to 0.17%, with an intraday high of $1571.
This low-open high-close bullish candle indicates one thing: after the MSCI rebalancing pulse funds exited, someone is willing to buy in the $1520-1530 range.
There are two major news items. First, JPMorgan upgraded SanDisk to "Overweight" with a target price of $2250; second, SanDisk announced a joint investment with Kioxia in Japan of over 5 trillion yen (about $31 billion) to expand AI storage production. Pre-market reports said SanDisk's gains once expanded to 6% at $1620—although that level did not hold, it shows bullish sentiment remains.
My judgment: $1525-1530 is a short-term support zone, $1570-1600 is resistance. Today's low-open high-close candlestick is not a strong reversal but more like a technical rebound after a sharp drop. Wait for a pullback near $1530 with reduced volume to stabilize before considering entry; chasing higher is not cost-effective. JPMorgan's $2250 target price is a long-term narrative, do not use it as a basis for short-term trading.
For reference only, not investment advice.
$SNDK That man, Michael Saylor, is back again 😅 Bought 4,603 BTC
* Spent about $369.7 million
* Average buy price about $80,318/BTC
* The company currently holds 845,050 BTC
* Average holding cost about $75,412
* This is the first re-accumulation after about 10 weeks without buying by the Strategy.
I think this signal is somewhat bullish, but it should not be interpreted as "once Saylor buys, Bitcoin will immediately rise." $SOL
The most notable point is: this time the main method was issuing more MSTR shares to raise money to buy BTC, rather than borrowing heavily, so the capital structure is more cautious than before.
Also, BTC is currently around $78,000, and Saylor’s average buy price this time is $80,300. That means he started buying again when the price had pulled back and market sentiment was weak.
Combined with our earlier analysis of the September market, I find this interesting:
Fed rate hike expectations → BTC under pressure → Saylor buys again → institutional funds start accumulating on dips.
If the Strategy continues to buy consecutively and BTC can hold around $75,000–$76,000, then the probability of a "dip then rise" pattern in September will significantly increase.
But if BTC falls below the Strategy’s average cost and continues to drop, the Strategy’s own financing ability will also be pressured, so the $75,000 level is a key point I’m watching closely now $BTC $SNDK SanDisk's violent surge this time, missing out feels worse than losing money.
Last night watching the market, SanDisk went from a slight dip to skyrocketing, surging over $100 in 45 minutes, finally closing up 5.5% at $1,566.70. Trading volume reached $36 billion, with a turnover rate as high as 15.97%—this volume is not driven by retail sentiment, but real institutional activity.
The most direct trigger: MSCI global index inclusion took effect. After the close on August 31, SanDisk was officially included in the MSCI All Country World Index, and all passive funds tracking this index must complete their positions before the close. This is real money passive buying, not short-term funds speculating on news and running.
But this is just the spark; the real fuel lies in fundamentals. AI storage demand continues to ferment, with two-thirds of SanDisk's capacity locked in long-term orders, anchoring gross margins at 80%. The storage industry is resonating overall—Micron rose 2.77%, HBM spot prices were speculated up to five times the long-term contract price. Mizuho forecasts SanDisk's EPS to grow fivefold from fiscal 2026 to 2028.
However, thinking calmly, SanDisk is still 33.5% below its June 22 all-time high—this is a deep dip recovery pulse, not a new high short squeeze. The 15.97% turnover indicates huge divergence. The expected rise has already been priced in; this is a tail-end rally, don't let FOMO cloud your judgment and risk everything. $SNDK #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 Sun Ge doesn't not want to sell; he simply can't sell.
Understand these three points clearly, and you'll grasp his survival rules.
1. Tens of billions in chips are hanging on the market; once he sells, the market crashes.
Most of his net worth is tied up in TRX and on-chain chips. Traditional tycoons cash out by selling US stocks, and the market can absorb it.
But if Sun Yuchen dares to massively dump to convert to fiat, the on-chain depth will instantly be pierced, turning a paper billionaire into a liquidity mirage. Staying on the market makes him the richest man; once he dumps, he becomes nothing.
2. "Not cashing out" is his top-level tactic.
In traditional finance, banks lend based on property certificates, but in Web3, he holds the largest USDT settlement network on the entire chain with TRON, effectively acting as the on-chain central bank himself. He doesn't need to cash out to buy second-tier assets; as long as he pledges or borrows against his chips, he has a continuous cash flow.
3. The rules of traditional finance and the crypto world are completely disconnected.
Forbes discounts him because they think crypto assets are non-compliant. He mocks traditional finance because, in his eyes, fiat currency is garbage that depreciates daily. Those who cash out early have long become cannon fodder; those who weld their chips firmly on-chain are arbitraging the world with the rules, holding all the cards.
In fact, he just chose the smartest path: staying at the table as the dealer is far more profitable than taking a one-time discounted lump sum.
And he can only do it this way.
Of course, the premise is that the assets themselves can still hold up.
Otherwise, all stories of financial freedom may end up as a liquidity crisis.
This is why Sun will never cash out his cryptoNVIDIA proved AI demand is still alive. Now Broadcom and Dell have to prove the money is spreading beyond GPUs. 👀
I’m Cige, and the AI earnings relay is moving to the next runners.
After NVIDIA, all eyes are on Dell tonight, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake tomorrow.
This time, I’m watching something slightly different.
It’s not just about how many AI chips are being bought. The real question is whether the spending is spreading across the entire infrastructure chain:
#DailyOrbit The overall market is currently undergoing a correction. However, we can observe that the price of $ZEC surprisingly remains high. This is a very unreasonable phenomenon. I believe it is going to drop. At present, it hasn't fallen, and I personally think it's because many large Bitcoin holders are offloading through $ZEC. Since $ZEC is a privacy coin, offloading through it is hard to detect. For a long time, large Bitcoin holders have operated this way. If you observe carefully, you can find that in previous market trends, $ZEC often experiences a big surge at the end of a bull market. During bear markets, it falls again, and I think this time will be no exception. —————————————————— Let's look at the contract data of $ZEC. We can see that during this round of rise, the long-short ratio of contracts has been continuously decreasing, while the contract open interest has been continuously increasing. This means that there is a lot of capital shorting during the rise. Facing such strong short pressure, it is almost certain to undergo a correction. —————————————————— I have analyzed many mainstream coins. The situations of various mainstream coins are different, mainly divided into two types. The first type is similar to $ZEC. During the rise, there is a lot of capital shorting in the market. The second type is similar to $ETH. During the rise, there is not particularly much capital shorting in the market; mainly, the previously trapped longs are exiting to break even. I consider both situations to be bearish. ——BTC broke out, ETH took over, and SOL went absolutely vertical. Meanwhile… I’m still short. 💀
I’ll admit it — I got caught on the wrong side this time.
There wasn’t some massive headline or obvious catalyst. $BTC simply broke out of the range, shorts started getting liquidated, and that forced buying quickly pushed the entire market higher.
Then the rotation kicked in:
$BTC broke → $ETH accelerated → $SOL amplified the move.
#DailyOrbit $PYUSD is showing strong stability.
Structure remains under control.
EP
0.9997 - 1.0000
TP
1.0005
1.0010
1.0020
SL
0.9985
Liquidity is building around the $1 reaction zone, with buyers defending structure near the current level. As long as support holds, continuation toward higher liquidity remains the favored scenario.
Let’s go $PYUSD#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
After $BTC surged, it entered a sideways consolidation phase. Recently, the correlation with gold has significantly increased, with the 90-day correlation rising above 50%.
The underlying logic is clear: funds seeking safe havens and hedging against US dollar credit risk are flowing into two types of scarce assets, bringing the digital gold narrative back.
Now, the market no longer simply follows US stock risk assets. Geopolitical inflation and US Treasury yield news simultaneously drive the price movements of gold and BTC.
$ETH and altcoins currently show weaker independence, mostly fluctuating in line with BTC's rhythm.
Going forward, pay close attention to gold's movements. If gold prices experience a significant pullback, BTC will likely be dragged down as well. Avoid blindly chasing highs in the high-level oscillation range.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. Previously talked about $PUMP, and looking back today, the fundamental logic basically hasn't changed.
The market cap is now about 1.92 billion USD, with annualized revenue over the past 30 days around 450 million. Calculated, the PS ratio is less than 5 times, and the revenue is still continuously increasing. The key point is that the project team uses half of the revenue to buy back and burn tokens. At this pace, they can buy back 225 million in a year, which is more than 10% of the market cap.
This is much more substantial than just telling stories. As long as the revenue can continue to grow and market sentiment improves a bit, giving an 8~10 times PS ratio, seeing a 10 billion market cap is not impossible — which corresponds to about 5 times upside.
In the short term, around 0.0035 is the area where chips were previously concentrated. If it pulls back to that and holds, I will gradually buy in with 30% to 50% of my position; if it breaks below, I will wait for the next support to add. But judging by the current trend, it’s not easy to fall to that level.
Of course, weekly revenue data must be continuously tracked. Once growth slows or the overall market has issues, adjust the position accordingly.
(This is purely my own speculation and does not constitute investment advice.)
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解 $KO's recent consumer defensive sector has shown a clear divergence in performance. KO Coca-Cola has surged to a historic high; in contrast, PEP PepsiCo has been weak, with its stock price under continuous pressure, and the valuation gap between the two has reached a multi-year high.
Both are dividend aristocrats, but the current dividend yield gap is significant: PepsiCo's dividend yield is about 4.1%, nearly double Coca-Cola's 2.2%‑2.4%, offering a substantial discount from a yield perspective.
The fundamental gap is the core reason for the divergence in performance. Coca-Cola uses a light-asset concentrate business model with an operating margin as high as 35%; PepsiCo's business spans beverages and Lay's snacks, with a heavy-asset model dragging the margin down to only 16.5%. Its Q2 revenue growth and profit performance fell short of market expectations, showing weak growth momentum, leading capital to flow toward more certain profitability.
In terms of valuation, Coca-Cola's TTM P/E ratio is close to 27x, while PepsiCo's is around 18x, indicating a clear valuation discount. The market has already priced in much of the pessimistic outlook on the snack business pressure into the current stock price.
High dividends are PepsiCo's biggest trump card, having raised dividends for 54 consecutive years, allowing long-term income investors to earn substantial cash flow returns. However, a discount does not mean an immediate reversal; inventory in the snack sector, North American beverage sales, and cost pressures remain risks hanging overhead, making it difficult in the short term to immediately catch up with Coca-Cola's upward momentum. As of September 1, ETH was fluctuating around $2,450, with a market cap of about $295B. The most noteworthy recent focus is not short-term prices, but the new connections forming between institutional funds and the on-chain economy. On August 31, US spot ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of about $87.68M, marking the 11th consecutive trading day of net inflows. Among them, BlackRock ETHA absorbed about $59.94M in a single day, with cumulative net inflows approaching $12.8B. 💰 Capital is rethinking ETH. BTC plays more of a "digital scarce asset" role, while ETH's core logic is closer to open financial infrastructure. Stablecoins, DeFi, RWA, trading, lending, and on-chain settlements all require blockchain as the underlying execution environment. ETFs continue to attract funds, meaning traditional capital is gaining ETH exposure through more familiar financial products. 🏗️ What truly stands to watch is ETH's network value capture. Whether ETH can continue to grow in the future shouldn't be judged solely by price, but by how much economic activity is actually on the network: whether stablecoin supply is expanding, whether DeFi transactions and lending are growing, whether RWA continues to be on-chain, whether L2s bring more users, and whether these activities can ultimately translate into long-term ETH demand. 🧩 L2s are changing Ethereum's role. Ethereum doesn't necessarily need to handle all transactions on its own. More importantly, it can become the security and settlement that multiple L2s, application chains, and financial systems rely on together