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#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
This week, the AI industry chain earnings relay continues. After reviewing Nvidia, the market's attention now turns to Dell, Broadcom, and Snowflake. I believe this round of earnings reports will be a crucial test.
Nvidia has already proven to the market that demand for computing power is indeed booming, but the story cannot stop at the GPU chip segment. Next, we need to see if AI capital expenditures can truly spread out: from chips, to servers, network equipment, and then to enterprise cloud software.
Dell is the first to deliver results, followed closely by Broadcom and Snowflake. On the hardware side, I am focusing on the sustainability of orders for custom AI chips, network equipment, and servers. More importantly, whether the rising orders can genuinely translate into profits and cash flow. It's no longer enough for order numbers to look good; gross margin levels, backlog, and customer concentration are all points the market will scrutinize under a magnifying glass.
On the software side, watch Snowflake to see if cloud data services can generate stable subscription revenue. This will determine whether the AI market can expand from a hardware single point to support the valuation of the entire tech sector.
Previously, the market was willing to buy into "strong AI demand" just by hearing it. Now, it's different; investors are becoming increasingly selective. Having impressive orders alone is no longer enough; ultimately, it depends on whether these investments can crystallize into real money. Whether the AI feast belongs only to chip manufacturers or benefits the entire industry chain, these earnings reports may give us the answer.Can be made more concise and market sentiment-driven while retaining data logic:
#Intensive Employment Data Releases Put Fed Policy Stance to the Test
🚨 September rate hike odds surge to 66%, $BTC drops near $77,000, the real test is just beginning.
Upon waking, BTC has already bounced back near $77,200.
After Fed's Waller spoke, market expectations for a September hike jumped from about 35% to over 60%, then Bullard signaled hawkishly again, pushing odds to a high of 66%.
Meanwhile:
📉 2-year US Treasury yields hit a near one-month high
💵 Dollar strengthens
⚠️ Risk assets broadly under pressure
🏦 Barclays even revised forecasts, seeing possible hikes in both September and December
This week also features three key data points:
• JOLTS job openings
• ADP employment data
• Friday's nonfarm payrolls
Market currently expects about 50,000–80,000 new jobs, with unemployment around 4.1%.
The market has now entered a true "data-sensitive mode."
If data significantly beats expectations, it could further raise rate hike odds;
If employment weakens notably, risk assets might get some breathing room.
More troubling, September historically underperforms, now compounded by rate hike expectations + geopolitical risks + rising Treasury yields.
So don’t rush to call the bottom now.
$BTCSOL Today: Selling pressure emerges, but funds have not fully withdrawn What the market truly needs attention today is not just the weakening SOL price, but the divergence between selling pressure and capital flows. SOL is currently fluctuating around $100, down about 3% intraday. After a recent rapid rebound, some short-term funds have chosen to take profits, putting some selling pressure on the price. Meanwhile, macro market risks have clearly risen. The US-Iran situation has driven up oil prices and US Treasury yields, renewed concerns over Fed rate hikes, and overall risk assets are under pressure. But one signal is worth noting: about 2.6 million SOL left exchanges in the past week, which is not typical large-scale sell-off, but rather some holders shifting assets into long-term holding or on-chain use. Meanwhile, Solana spot ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows, with over $150 million flowing in a single week at the end of August, indicating institutional demand remains. My view: Currently, SOL is more like "profit-taking after an increase + macro risk suppression," rather than a full capital flight. What really needs to be observed is: whether exchange SOL balances continue to rise again, and whether ETF funds have turned into continuous net outflows. If both signals appear simultaneously, it would mean selling pressure may be further expanding. Do you think SOL is currently undergoing a normal correction, or has the uptrend already weakened? 👇 $BTC $ETH $SOL #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRW#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
RobinhoodChain's on-chain activity continues to surge, with DEX trading volumes repeatedly hitting new phase highs. On August 28, the single-day DEX trading volume approached $989 million, and on September 2, the past 24-hour trading volume further broke through $1.28 billion.
The trading structure has undergone significant changes, with coin-stock Meme driven by Long.xyz becoming the core driver. Tokens like AI and MOO have seen a surge in popularity, and market speculation has spread from tokenized stocks to more volatile Meme assets.
Controversies at the business level are also worth noting: RobinhoodWallet and Fomo support direct purchases of Meme coins via Apple Pay, Google Pay, and credit cards, but some transactions are classified as digital goods media rather than cryptocurrency purchases, creating significant compliance risks.
A core market divergence has now emerged: Is this round of on-chain volume growth driven by genuine demand for RWA tokenized stocks, or is it a short-term traffic bubble fueled by Meme speculation and convenient payment gateways?
Launched just two months ago, this public chain once set a record of 5.52 million single-day transactions, with on-chain revenue surpassing Base and rivaling Solana. However, it is crucial to distinguish between real business growth and speculative capital inflows. If the vast majority of the increase comes from high-risk Meme, then the sustainability of this boom is questionable. Robinhood comes with built-in traffic. Tens of millions of funded accounts, wallets, and app entry points allow new chains to avoid starting cold from zero. Users can interact with on-chain assets within a familiar interface, making cross-chain friction much lower than for pure crypto users.GM Young Master🌞
Woke up to see mainstream coins all tanking: $BTC -1.38%, $ETH -2.21%, $SOL -3.29%. SOL leads the decline, with high-beta assets facing the most correction pressure, which is not surprising given the 10Y US Treasury yield still hovering at a high 4.796%.
US stocks also fell last night, with the S&P down 0.71% and the Nasdaq down 1.03%, tech stocks taking the hardest hit. Interest rates suppress valuations, risk appetite shrinks, and the crypto space struggles to stay unaffected.
The fear index still stands at 63 in the greed zone, but greed at times like this is often the most expensive contrarian indicator. History repeatedly shows that those who jump in when the fear index is above 60 get trapped about 60-70% of the time.
But the truly interesting stuff is always on-chain.
On the ETH side, big players are bleeding: someone on Hyperliquid is 25x leveraged long on ETH, with a $98 million position, only $63 away from liquidation, burning $4.3 million weekly.
Another BIT-related entity has increased its ETH longs to 33,000 ETH ($79.3 million), currently down $2.48 million, ranking as the fifth largest position. Sharks eating each other—this kind of signal is more real than any technical indicator. I don’t know if they’ll survive in the end, but every time I see this kind of position data, retail investors’ direction is often problematic.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The main reason for this round of $UNI surge is the explosive popularity of a public chain. Not long ago, Robinhood Chain suddenly became a big hit. Uniswap, as the main DEX mentioned above, naturally earned a lot in fees. Therefore, $UNI's price has been rising steadily, and it has now doubled from its previous low. However, I don't think this upward trend can last forever; it's very likely it will fall. Because the probability of a public chain sustaining popularity is very low. Therefore, I think it's time to short $UNI. From the project perspective, this coin is worth shorting; From the futures data, this coin is also worth shorting. —————————————————— Let's look at the $UNI contract data. We can see that its contract opening interest has seen two major increases, and the corresponding long-short ratio of the contract is declining. This means that during the $UNI price rise, a large amount of capital entered to short the market. Let's look at data over a longer period. We can see that its contract open interest has reached a high point, and the contract long-short ratio has also reached a low point. This means that the current market sentiment is still quite bearish. —————————————————— In summary, I think now is the time to go short. I am also shorting right now, but I have already lost a lot of money. Although I have lost a lot of money, I am still firmly bearish. Firmly shortLast night, the US stock market fell, but $BTC surprisingly didn't drop much.
Oil prices surged, US Treasury yields also rose, and high-valuation assets like the Nasdaq took the initial hit.
But $BTC is still hovering around $78,000. Although it hasn't reclaimed $80,000 yet, at least it hasn't crashed along with the US stocks.
ETF funds haven't shown sustained outflows either:
About $200 million flowed out on Friday, and over $200 million flowed back on Monday, indicating that funds haven't completely withdrawn.
The current market situation is actually quite simple:
US stocks fall, BTC doesn't follow;
US stocks stabilize, BTC doesn't necessarily rise immediately.
The market is still waiting for a real direction.
Next, the key focus is whether $80,000 can be reclaimed and held.
Before reclaiming it, altcoins should be traded less and patiently wait for confirmation.👀
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #CryptoSisters, today mainstream coins collectively fell, but the $ZEC whales are still defending the price so tightly, maintaining it around 836 without letting it drop!
Many people predict it’s forming a top! What I want to say is exactly the opposite, it’s impossible to push higher anymore!
The reason is simple—the whales refuse to let it fall, and they don’t want it to fall! Because the shorts of ZEC are already trapped and locked in! The long-short ratio is almost 1:9! 😭😭😭
If the whales let it fall, the shorts would all feast on big profits, so they stubbornly hold it from falling!
First, look at how strong this wave of ZEC is:
On August 18 it was still around $509, on August 23 it directly surged to $888, a 72% increase in five days, hitting a new high since 2018. Now it has pulled back to around 836, less than a 6% drop from the peak. A 6% drop and it can’t fall further, indicating shorts haven’t truly exerted force yet.
The perpetual contract market is even scarier!
ZEC perpetual contract open interest surged from $962.5 million on August 19 to $1.8 billion in five days, nearly doubling! The 24-hour trading volume reached $5.3 billion. With such huge funds battling inside, whoever breaks first will explode first!
The most critical is the long-short data!!!
The average 8-hour funding rate is 0.0106%, longs are paying shorts. Shorts are collecting money daily, yet the price hasn’t crashed—this means selling pressure is exhausted, shorts can’t push it down anymore!
In the contract long-short account ratio, shorts hold an overwhelming advantage, longs have almost disappeared! When everyone stands on the same side, what will the whales do? The most profitable way for whales is to blow up the vast majority of shorts!
According to the trend in the past few days, whales will continue to push higher, then blow up a wave of shorts, attracting longs to enter, then possibly reverse to drop and sell!
At this time, it’s suitable to do a short-term small long, but be sure to set take profit properly, don’t get trapped or locked in!
Sisters, shorts are extremely crowded at this position, whales won’t let shorts easily feast! How far do you think $ZEC can rally this time? Tell me in the comments!! 🧋💀
$BTC
$ETH
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Not recommended to buy.
Price anomaly: The current international gold price is about $4600 per ounce, which converts to around 1050 yuan per gram in the domestic market. Legitimate investment gold bars are sold close to the market price, but this one at 953 yuan per gram is nearly 100 yuan cheaper, likely indicating a trap at the store—extra processing fees, markup for jewelry exchange, limited stock forcing you to switch models.
1 gram gold bars are not investment products: The buy-sell spread is large, gold shops heavily discount on repurchase, and the processing fees and discounts proportionally hit 1 gram bars the hardest, resulting in no real profit.
You already have gold exposure: The XAU in your rotation portfolio is gold, with much better liquidity than physical gold bars, so no need to stockpile physical gold.
If you really want physical gold as a safe asset, save up to buy bank-certified investment gold bars of 10 grams or more in the future, with clear repurchase channels. These 1 gram promotional items in live streams are just for show.Arjun Sethi and the London Stock Exchange have begun moving the UK's top 100 stocks on-chain. The process of putting stocks on-chain has shifted from being done by crypto companies themselves to being directly involved by traditional exchanges. On September 1, Kraken's parent company Payward officially announced a partnership with London Stock Exchange. In the coming weeks, the 100 largest companies by market value on the London Stock Exchange will gradually be made into xStocks, open to qualified investors in over 110 countries and markets. xStocks has accumulated over $40 billion in trading volume, with nearly $20 billion on-chain and more than 200,000 holders. 1. This time, it's not just "stock tokenization" Many previous tokenized stocks essentially involved crypto companies using traditional stocks as underlying assets and issuing an on-chain version. What's different this time is that the London Stock Exchange itself is participating. Payward is responsible for turning large UK stocks into xStocks, and after obtaining regulatory approval, the London Stock Exchange also plans to bring these assets onto the new LSE 24 trading platform. In other words, traditional exchanges no longer just provide stock prices and listing venues, but are now exploring how to directly connect securities to Blockchain Rails. 2. The real major change is that stocks and crypto may start using the same infrastructure as xStocks这轮下跌来得比很多人预想得更快。 BTC从接近7.9万美元附近快速回落，一度跌向7.6万美元区域；ETH重新靠近2400美元下方，SOL也回到100美元附近。 短时间内的大幅波动，让高杠杆仓位集中承压。 但真正值得关注的，不只是“跌了多少”，而是—— 这次下跌到底是一次情绪性洗盘，还是趋势开始转弱？ ① 地缘风险重新成为导火索 近期中东局势持续扰动全球风险资产。 一旦能源价格继续走高，市场首先担心的就是通胀重新升温，随后传导到美债收益率、美元以及美联储政策预期。 简单来说： 油价上涨 → 通胀担忧 → 降息预期降温 → 美债收益率走高 → BTC、ETH等风险资产承压。 所以这次市场下跌，并不能单纯归因于技术面。 ② 宏观压力依然没有消失 8月BTC一度上涨超过20%，市场情绪明显升温。 但进入9月以后，宏观变量重新占据主导。 最新市场讨论中，美联储9月政策调整概率仍处在较高水平；与此同时，美国就业数据即将公布。 9月4日，美国8月非农就业报告将正式发布。市场目前关注的核心区间大约在新增就业5万左右、失业率约4.1%附近。 这意味着： 非农偏弱 → 收益率可能回落 → 风险资产获得喘息This week's August jobs report is the real swing factor for crypto's near-term liquidity. After July's negative payrolls print, the first of this cycle, the debate quietly moved from "will they hike" to "how deep do they cut," and September hike odds have collapsed. A soft number pulls the easing story forward; a hot one revives a tail risk the market had stopped pricing. BTC near $77K is coiled on exactly that.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds Data is cooling down, so why is the market more afraid of rate hikes?
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
After several US data releases last night, the market was somewhat conflicted.
The August ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 54.6, below expectations but still above 50; JOLTS job openings dropped to about 7.27 million, also missing market expectations, and construction spending was similarly weak. According to the usual script, an economic cooldown should be good for risk assets, and BTC should have eased somewhat.
Yet the market still hesitates to bet on a dovish direction.
The reason is not complicated: manufacturing is slowing but still expanding; oil prices remain high, and inflation could be pushed up again by energy costs at any time. Coupled with earlier hawkish comments from Waller, the probability of a September rate hike rose to 65%–68%, nearly doubling from about 36% before the Jackson Hole speech. Rate hike pricing
So this time it’s not simply about whether the data is good or bad, but that employment is cooling while inflationary pressure remains. The Fed’s toughest challenge is precisely this in-between state.
Tonight at 20:15 Beijing time, ADP data will be released, and the official nonfarm payrolls come out Friday at 20:30. If ADP weakens significantly, rate hike bets may cool off; if employment remains resilient, the market will believe the Fed still has the confidence to tighten further.
For BTC, the biggest fear tonight is not very poor data, but data that isn’t poor enough. No recession and inflation not coming down—that’s the toughest combination for risk assets.What really makes $BTC worth watching this week isn't whether there's still money coming in from the ETF, but another change: money is still flowing in, but it's moving in more slowly; Market turnover is also declining; BTC's price response to new capital has also weakened. US BTC spot ETFs still maintain net inflows, but over five trading days, the cumulative inflow has dropped from about $1.918 billion last week to about $925 million, a decrease of about 51.8%. So it's not that ETF funds are withdrawing now, but rather that the pace of capital inflow has clearly slowed. 1. ETFs are still buying, but funds are increasingly concentrated in IBIT Over the past five full trading days, IBIT saw a net inflow of about $935.3 million. However, other BTC ETFs have actually seen a net outflow of about $131.7 million, and the total net inflow for all BTC spot ETFs is about $803.6 million. This structure is actually more worth watching than total inflows. Because not all ETF products are receiving funds at the same time; instead, new funds are clearly concentrated in IBIT. Total inflows remain positive, but the breadth of funds is no longer as strong as in the previous phase. 2. As funds slow down, trading volume has also declined BTC's recent fixed 7-day cycle performance shifted from +21.37% last week to about -1.39% this week. During the same period, average daily trading volume dropped from about $43.69 billion to $29.24 billion, a decrease of about 33.1%. In other words, the previous stage was: rapid price rise + active trading. Now it has become:#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
A series of leading U.S. employment and economic data have been released, but the market has not received a clear black-or-white answer, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August fell to 54.6, down from 55.6 in July. Although the reading declined, it still remains above the 50 expansion-contraction threshold, indicating that the underlying economic expansion has not completely disappeared; July JOLTS job openings were 7.27 million, below the market estimate of 7.31 million, but slightly up compared to the revised June data. These two data points send conflicting signals: manufacturing growth momentum is slowing, but the labor market remains resilient with no signs of a sharp collapse.
After the data release, rate hike pricing changed directly. CME rate tools show that the market's probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to 66%‑66.9%, with rate hike expectations heating up again.
The real test is still ahead. At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the U.S. August nonfarm payroll report will be released. This core data will directly verify the extent of cooling in employment and ultimately rewrite the market's rate hike pricing logic.
For risk assets like BTC and U.S. stocks, the short-term market focus is not on the quality of a single data release. What truly determines the trend is the re-pricing of the U.S. dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and global market risk appetite. In the coming days, every piece of economic data will influence the market's valuation center, likely amplifying market volatility, so trading requires extra risk control. SPCX small short, BTC don't move recklessly, storage continues to consolidate.
You can short SPCX a little: 144 is exactly the previous high and supply zone overlap point. Above that, 148–150 is the real strong resistance, where you can add to short positions. The extreme top is around 170. Valuation is too expensive, a shakeout is still needed.
BTC: Still strong. After this consolidation, it will reach new highs, but the consolidation is risky—many people who made money in the trend will lose it here.
Bought at the 60,000 bottom, held until 80,000. After a few days of consolidation, if you tell me you lost it all, chasing highs and selling lows, it’s just stop loss after stop loss. That’s really over.
Storage is the same situation: consolidation.
The high point dropped 50%–60%, the drop is enough, but the main force chips are not yet fully concentrated, still need to consolidate, making more retail investors give up their chips.
Samsung has already sold about 70% of its 2026–2031 production capacity under long-term contracts to Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google. Major customers still don’t fully take it, and spot HBM is still more expensive than long-term contract prices.
This kind of business is still treated as a cyclical stock, the chips will really be taken away.
Hold on, don’t lose yourself in the consolidation.
$SPCX $SKHY $SNDK $BTC #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 📉 Conflicting data, market confusion, is BTC sideways movement the calm before the storm?
Brothers, last night's data gave me a headache—
Manufacturing PMI dropped a bit but still above the expansion line, job openings slightly below expectations but more than last month...
This isn't data divergence, this is "the Fed can explain it however they want."
Then CME's rate hike probability quietly climbed above 66%,
meaning—the market has already priced in a September rate hike.
But BTC is still sideways, US stocks haven't crashed, and retail investors have started complaining👇
"The Treasury Secretary says no rate hike, the President says rates are too high, what are you guys even playing at?"
Bro, this is the most intriguing part—
Policy is dovish, data is hawkish, and the market is stuck in the middle like a sandwich.
Don't just look at BTC's -1.39% fluctuation,
the real drama is in the dollar and US Treasury yields.
If Friday's nonfarm payrolls come in strong again,
risk assets might get crushed hard.
Now is not the time to bet on direction,
it's time to watch for liquidity expectation turning points.
Sideways isn't lying down, it's the scythe sharpening.
On the eve of nonfarm payrolls, manage your positions well, don't be the flashy one who "blows up as soon as the data drops."
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $ETH $BTC #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
Let's talk about an interesting change in the current BTC market.
After BTC surged past 80,000, it didn't continue to rally aggressively but started to oscillate at a high level.
One key driving force behind this rally was the US spot BTC-ETF, which saw nine consecutive days of net capital inflow, showing strong institutional buying. However, on August 28, the funds turned to net outflow, and this round of sustained institutional entry has temporarily paused.
Here's the interesting point: as institutional funds slowed down, on-chain data shows retail activity has surged to a nearly two-year high. It's like the baton is being passed, seemingly into the hands of retail investors.
Another signal I've been watching closely: the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is increasing, while the linkage with Nasdaq is weakening.
This phenomenon is widely discussed in the community. Some believe BTC is gradually developing an independent trend, with its safe-haven attribute gaining more recognition, increasingly resembling digital gold; others think this is just a short-term synchronization caused by the current market environment and it's too early to conclude.
Currently, the biggest disagreements boil down to two things:
After the ETF buying cools down, can retail enthusiasm sustain the current high levels? And is the strong correlation between Bitcoin and gold a long-term shift in asset logic or just a phase in the market?
At this stage, the market is no longer in a blind rush; uncertainty is increasing.
What do you think? Is BTC in this round officially securing its position as a safe-haven asset, or is it just temporarily following gold? Feel free to share your thoughts.#Robinhood on-chain volume surge, Meme crypto stocks spark controversy
Robinhood's on-chain volume surge, I find the hype a bit confusing 🤔
I've been closely watching RobinhoodChain's data recently, and honestly, the speed of its rise really surprised me.
On August 28, the DEX's single-day trading volume was nearly $989 million, and just a few days later, in the past 24 hours, it shot up to $1.28 billion, continuously setting new stage highs. Having launched only two months ago, the on-chain activity has exploded, with daily transaction counts and app revenue data even rivaling many established public blockchains.
But digging into the trading structure reveals a different flavor. The hottest assets now are the Meme crypto stocks related to Long.xyz, with tokens like AI and MOO reaching peak popularity. The hype has gradually spread from originally tokenized stocks to highly volatile Meme assets.
What’s even more controversial is its payment gateway. RobinhoodWallet paired with Fomo supports Apple Pay, Google Pay, and credit cards to directly buy Meme tokens. This move has sparked intense debate, with a critical compliance point: some transactions are classified as digital goods media rather than cryptocurrency purchases. This ambiguous classification raises questions in my mind about whether it will attract regulatory scrutiny in the future.#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
RobinhoodChain trading volume soared to $1.28 billion. On the surface, it seems driven by tokenized stocks and RWA narratives, but the real driving force is something else entirely.
Let's look at the data first. On August 28, the single-day DEX trading volume was nearly $989 million, and on September 2 it further broke through $1.28 billion, setting a new stage high. The numbers are impressive, but breaking down the trading structure reveals that the frenzy is not in tokenized stocks, but in Long.xyz-related coin-stock Meme tokens. Tokens like AI and MOO are leading the hype, with trading heat spreading from relatively stable tokenized stocks to highly volatile Meme assets. The trading volume and turnover rate of Meme coins are the true engines driving up DEX data.
Next, let's look at the capital inflow. RobinhoodWallet and Fomo have integrated ApplePay, GooglePay, and credit cards, allowing users to purchase Meme coins directly through these methods. There is a crucial detail here—some transactions are classified as digital goods media rather than cryptocurrency purchases. This classification bypasses the compliance framework of traditional crypto exchanges, sparking considerable controversy. The blurred compliance boundaries objectively reduce friction for ordinary users entering the market and also amplify trading volume.
For investors, distinguishing narrative from reality is important. When trading volume is mainly driven by Meme, the value of on-chain activity should be discounted.
@OKX星球 The most unusual thing about $BTC these past two days isn't how much it has dropped,
but that despite the heavy negative external factors, the price hasn't been directly smashed through. Oil prices have surged to around $95, interest rate hike expectations continue to heat up, and the stock market and risk assets are under pressure.
By normal logic, this environment is not friendly to BTC. But now BTC is still hovering around 77,000 repeatedly.
If it were really weak, such a level of negative news should have already broken the price down. So what I want to know now is not "Is BTC going to fall?",
but rather: who exactly is defending the 77,000 level? I first took a look at the contract side. Currently, the BTC perpetual funding rate is about 0.0073%, which is still moderate;
open interest is around 109,000 BTC, and there is no sign of excessively leveraged positions. This is very important. Because if the current support mainly comes from highly leveraged retail traders holding on hard,
you would usually see higher funding rates, more aggressive open interest growth, and obviously heated bullish sentiment. But that is not the case now. At least this indicates:
The support around 77,000 doesn't look like a group of emotional bulls desperately holding on. Looking further, top traders' positions remain biased towards long.
The long ratio is still about 66.8%. This doesn't guarantee a rise later,
but at least it shows that those with actual positions in the market haven't collectively flipped to short due to this wave of macro pressure. In other words: negative factors are hitting, but funds have not completely withdrawn.
This is the contradiction most worth watching right now.#Robinhood on-chain volume surges, Meme coin stocks spark controversy
Latest data
Robinhood Chain on-chain transactions surge, combining coin stocks with Meme hype explosion, DEX trading volume hits a new phase high. Market $BTC 78790.
Market consensus
The bullish side believes traditional brokerage traffic is being introduced on-chain, connecting US stocks and crypto, bringing in new off-exchange funds; controversial voices point out that most are pure speculative memes, not officially endorsed, and most ordinary traders are in a loss position.
Underlying logic analysis
This chain originally focused on tokenizing US stocks, but now traffic is dominated by Memes. Traditional retail funds entering will amplify short-term volatility, but projects and tokens have no official backing, posing extremely high risks.
Personal view (personally leaning towards a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
This is a new speculative narrative; watching the excitement is fine, but blindly rushing in to speculate is not advisable. $BTC
Looking at the aggregated CVD on the 1h chart, it's quite interesting:
Chasing the rally, selling, bottom fishing, selling/stop loss
On the macro side:
The probability of a rate hike is approaching 70%
Crude oil rose 8% in one week
Options data expiring on September 18:
Put wall 72000
Key level 75873.
In the past few days, the battle between bulls and bears has been around 77.5k, but the lows are getting lower. Bears are gradually gaining the upper hand, but the bulls' efforts have not been completely crushed.
It is recommended to short on a small rebound to 78-79k, and close positions between 72-73.7k. According to the latest macro monitoring data from The Block, the price trends of Bitcoin and gold are showing unprecedented synchronization. Currently, their 90-day Pearson correlation coefficient has reached a historic high, while the 30-day correlation coefficient has also climbed to an annual peak of 0.8. This highly correlated market feature indicates that digital assets are resonating in sync with traditional safe-haven assets. The core driving force behind this phenomenon is the ongoing fermentation of the "fiat currency depreciation trade" logic. Faced with rising sovereign debt, uncontrollable fiscal deficits, and the Federal Reserve's forced intervention role in the government bond market, more and more investors worry that the purchasing power of sovereign credit assets like the US dollar will be diluted. Against this backdrop, global capital is accelerating its search for safe havens in hard assets, and Bitcoin is gradually establishing its strategic position as a safe-haven tool in the digital age. Significant inflows through ETF channels The flow of funds provides strong evidence for the above safe-haven narrative. Recently, both gold ETFs and Bitcoin spot ETFs have entered the top ten global asset inflow rankings. Data shows that nearly $1 billion in net funds flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in a single week last week. So far, the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs this year has reached $1.89 billion; among them, BlackRock's IBIT product has performed particularly well, attracting $1.2 billion in funds this year. Historical cycle review Reviewing historical trends reveals that the sharp rise in the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has twice appeared as a leading indicator of the crypto market trend: In 2020Recently, against the backdrop of a generally weak market, $ARB surged 30% breaking through $0.11. Have you been paying attention to this?
Robinhood Chain, built on Arbitrum Orbit, saw its single-day on-chain revenue soar to about $2 million. According to the protocol, 10% of its net income must be fed back to the Arbitrum DAO treasury, contributing nearly $200,000 in cash flow in just one day.
From another perspective, this marks a shift in the L2 hype logic. Previously, everyone was hyping empty ecosystems, but this time traditional giant Robinhood is entering with RWA, massive retail investors, and Meme frenzy.
When real money fees generated by Web2 giants are proportionally and mandatorily taken by the underlying public chain, ARB gains a dividend fundamental similar to traditional stocks for the first time.
My prediction for the upcoming trend:
In the short term, RSI has already surged above 70, reaching overbought territory, and the technical side will inevitably experience consolidation and shakeout near the strong resistance at $0.119. Additionally, about 92.6 million ARB will unlock around mid-September, making chasing highs extremely risky.
In the medium to long term, the core question is whether the money entering the treasury can truly turn into staking dividends or token burns. If it only stays in the treasury, ARB still lacks a strong capture path, and this surge could easily become a phase of profit-taking.
Overall, having fundamental support is a good thing, but short-term indicators are overheated and there is unlocking pressure. Blindly catching a falling knife is not as good as waiting for a pullback and policy implementation.
DYOR
$HOOD #BTC
85 billion evaporated, BTC fell back to 77K, ETH broke 2400. It's that same old story with the US and Iran again, always the same script.
But this time it's different: gold and BTC are falling together. The hard asset narrative is being slapped down; the market is trading inflation expectations, not safe havens.
When oil prices surge, interest rates can't come down. This is what BTC is truly afraid of.ARK+Glassnode Joint Report: BTC and ETH Reach Critical Control Threshold with Only 3 Entities
ARK Invest and Glassnode jointly released a decentralized in-depth report presenting a controversial data point:
Theoretically, BTC and ETH can reach the critical control threshold affecting block production with just 3 entities; Solana requires 19 entities.
⚠️ Key Reminder from the Report:
Due to mining pool aggregation and staking delegation proxy models, this theoretical number ≠ actual control by a few institutions in reality. It is merely the theoretical critical value of hash power/staking weight and cannot be directly equated with actual control.
📊 Infrastructure Distribution Comparison
1. Bitcoin BTC
Node geographic distribution is balanced, about 63% of nodes run on the Tor anonymous network, making infrastructure decentralization optimal. Although hash power is concentrated in top mining pools, the large number of anonymously distributed nodes makes it difficult for external parties to shut down the network.
2. Ethereum ETH
The theoretical staking weight threshold is low, and infrastructure relies heavily on cloud service providers, with about 20% of nodes running on AWS cloud servers. If cloud services fail, some nodes may be disrupted, but staking is widely delegated, so a single cloud provider cannot control the entire chain.
3. Solana SOL
Requires 19 entities to reach the control threshold, theoretically making collusion among a few entities more difficult; however, most nodes are hosted in data center facilities, highlighting a significant physical infrastructure centralization issue.
💡 Two Community Interpretations
🔻 Concerned Perspective
The critical number of 3 entities for BTC and ETH looks alarming. Top mining pools and large staking service providers hold significant weight, and if they collude, it could lead to censorship and block manipulation risks. Decentralization is not as absolutely secure as imagined.
🟡 Rational and Objective Perspective
This is just a theoretical mathematical threshold.
Mining pools are collections of countless miners, ETH staking involves massive retail delegation, and service providers act only as agents without token ownership. In reality, major entities have conflicting interests, making collusion difficult.
The real risk lies not in the "theoretical threshold" but in the underlying infrastructure: ETH’s reliance on cloud services and SOL’s highly centralized data centers are the true vulnerabilities.
🎯 Summary
Don’t be misled by the eye-catching headline "3 Entities Control BTC/ETH."
The report’s core message is not that BTC and ETH are already controlled by three entities, but that staking and mining pool delegation aggregation mechanisms increase theoretical concentration risk, while token ownership remains dispersed; infrastructure hosting is the more critical real-world weakness.
$BTC $ETH $SOL#BTC pullback at highs, gold correlation under test #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Family, on the eve before the non-farm payrolls, the data is conflicting.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, down from 55.6 last month, but still above the expansion line. JOLTS job openings are at 7.27 million, slightly below the expected 7.31 million, but a bit higher than last month's revised 7.18 million. Manufacturing is slowing down, but not collapsing. Labor demand is cooling, but not crashing.
The market ignores these; CME's probability of a September rate hike has already reached 66% to 66.9%. After the hawkish speech by Walsh, the market has been pricing in rate hikes, and these data sets haven't provided strong enough reasons to reverse this trend. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The real showdown is on the night of September 4th with the non-farm payrolls. If employment data weakens again, this fire might be extinguished. If the data is strong, the probability of a rate hike may continue to rise.
For BTC, the trend will most likely follow macro expectations these days, and the direction won't be clear until the non-farm payrolls are released. Wishing everyone smooth trading. There are only two types of coins in the crypto world that can truly surge: one is casino chip coins, like BNB and HYPE. These are coins from hot casinos that can buy back their own platform tokens, providing clear empowerment.
The other is pure meme coins, like DOGE, CashCat, and Pepe. These represent the attention economy, have no intrinsic value, but can attract people and offer emotional value through the thrill of gambling wins or losses.
As for the ones in between, the new concepts created in the crypto world over the years seem to have all died out.Recently, many people have been wondering why BTC fell below 77,000 and market panic continues to spread, even though there hasn't been any extreme negative news on the charts. The core reason is not entirely in the candlestick patterns themselves; the September market trend is largely driven by two major macro events. The entire rhythm of the crypto market in September is firmly locked by two key events: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 15 and the Senate vote on the US Clarity Act. These two events will directly affect institutional capital's willingness to enter the market, the recovery potential of altcoins, and determine whether the overall market will undergo a consolidation recovery or continue to weaken under pressure. The first major event: the Federal Reserve decision in September, with a significant rise in rate hike expectations. The market sentiment has clearly shifted. Previously, it was widely expected that interest rates would remain unchanged, but recently Federal Reserve officials have consecutively released relatively hawkish statements, causing market expectations to be repriced, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen sharply. Simply put: A rate hike means higher market funding costs and overall liquidity tightening. High-risk assets like cryptocurrencies will be the first to be suppressed, and both the stock market and crypto market are likely to come under pressure. The current market pullback in advance is the capital preemptively betting on the rate hike being implemented. This is also an important reason why the market saw a broad rally in August but quickly weakened at the start of September. Capital market trading is not just about current prices but more about forecasting future liquidity. Of course, a rate hike is not set in stone. If the meeting proceeds with the expected rate hike but the statements signal no further hikes afterward, it is likely that the negative impact will be fully priced in, and the market will see a recovery rebound. If the statements are particularly hawkish, implying$BTC is currently undergoing a "liquidity meat grinder" triggered by geopolitical tensions. Due to the sudden escalation of the US-Iran conflict, market risk aversion sentiment exploded instantly, causing BTC to break below $78,000. Over $300 million long positions were liquidated within 24 hours, and 80,000 traders were ruthlessly wiped out.
This is far from a simple technical correction; it is a resonance of macro tightening and a geopolitical black swan event. The Fed's September rate hike expectations have surged to 64%, combined with Middle East conflicts, funds are frantically withdrawing from risk assets. Technically, the $75,500 to $76,000 range is the last defense line for bulls; once breached, the downside space will be fully opened.
The most ironic part is that BTC surged 24% in August thanks to ETF funds, but now it has been brought back to reality by long-term holders selling and sudden negative news. This makes one ponder: in the face of the macro long cycle, how long can the so-called "institutional faith" really hold? When risk aversion dominates, does Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative collapse again (of course, almost impossible)?
So, do you think this correction is a shakeout by the main players, or a signal of a bear market reversal?$UNITREE 宇树都腰斩了，UNITREE 代币还能撑多久？目标直接看 60！
宇树科技今天又跌了，上市 11 天，股价从 1100 干到 548，直接腰斩，市值没了 2200 多亿。这不是洗盘，这是泡沫破了
上市的时候流通盘才 7.44%，九成筹码都锁着，随便点钱就能拉到天上去，1100 那价格根本就是炒出来的，跟基本面半毛钱关系没有。现在专家都出来说了，"炒太高了，脱离基本面"，这话翻译过来就是 —— 还得跌
再说代币解禁，那更是惨。未来 2个月要解锁 2.8 亿枚！9 月 1.38 亿，10 月 1.49 亿，早期那帮人成本多低啊，解锁了不跑等什么？
聪明钱都在跑，你还在想着抄底？正股跌，代币只会跌得更狠，因为代币就是正股的情绪杠杆，涨的时候涨得多，跌的时候也跌得猛
操作很简单：反弹就空，目标先看 60！ 60 要是守不住，下面还有更大的空间。别着急抄底，腰斩之后还有脚踝斩，等真正企稳了再说。#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds The latest US data feels mixed enough to make Friday’s payroll report even more important 👀
August ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 55.6 to 54.6. That still signals expansion, just at a slower pace. July JOLTS openings came in at 7.27M—below expectations, but slightly above June’s revised figure.
To me, this doesn’t look like a labor market collapsing. It looks more like demand is cooling gradually while businesses remain cautious about hiring 📊
Yet markets are still pricing roughly a 66% chance of a 25bp September hike. That means August payrolls may need to do more than simply beat or miss expectations—the details on wages, unemployment and prior revisions could matter just as much.
I’m curious whether the report gives the Fed a clearer direction, or leaves us with the same uncomfortable mix: slower growth, resilient labor demand and inflation still above target.1. What happened in the market Over the past 24 hours, BTC has fluctuated violently between 77,500 and 78,500, reaching a high of 78,800 before quickly retreating, and dropping to a low of 77,000. ETH has weakened in tandem, currently at 2,400, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 2%. The direct cause of this fluctuation is hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. At the Jackson Hole annual meeting, the Fed Chairman clearly stated that "the 2% inflation target will never be relaxed," and hinted that "further rate hikes are not ruled out." Following the news, U.S. stock futures plunged, gold surged and retreated, and BTC was not spared. 2. Underlying logic: BTC's asset attributes are changing. This round of decline is noteworthy: the correlation between BTC and gold is sharply rising. According to Grayscale's latest data, BTC's correlation with Nasdaq has dropped from 60% at the start of the year to 33%, while its correlation with gold has surged from nearly zero to over 50%. What does this mean? It means BTC is shifting from a "high-beta tech stock" to a "macro hedge asset." The core logic behind this is that the scale of U.S. Treasury debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the dollar's credit has been repeatedly scrutinized. When market confidence in fiat currencies wavers, assets like gold and BTC—"assets out of government reach"—will be snapped up simultaneously. Bloomberg's analysis is even more direct: this rally is largely due to short covering, not a resumption of the bull market. Including this rebound, BTC has fallen nearly 10% this year. The 77,000-80,000 level is a tightly trapped zone, and if you can't get through, you'll be grinding back and forth. 3. ChainsEven with long-term contracts signed, full allocation is not guaranteed
Having a contract does not mean goods will be delivered on schedule
Industry rumors say
Even top-tier clients like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google
Cannot fully receive their long-term contract quotas
Data from the Korea Trade Association is very clear
DRAM exports shrank by 13.2% from May to July
But the average export price soared from 16.76 to 22.90 USD
Volume is shrinking
Average price rose by 36.6%
The first-tier clients still can't get enough
The scattered spot goods flowing outside
Will only become more fiercely contested
$MU $SNDK $SKHY The August gains have already eaten up all the cheap chips. BTC has surged 24% from its lows and is now flat around 78,000 yuan. It looks stable, but it's actually a process of digestion. Institutions are still buying, Strategy added another 370 million, but the market is no longer trend-starting—it's high-level turnover. The toughest father of tech stocks—the 10-year US Treasury yield—peaked at 4.78%, the yen has dropped back to 160, and US dollar liquidity is collecting. Tonight at 10:00, ISM manufacturing PMI, nonfarm payrolls this week, and CPI and FOMC will all be packed in September. In this kind of month, before the direction is clear, do more, make fewer mistakes. $BTC Let's look at 77,200 first. This is the low in the past two days, and the first line of defense since the August rally. Hold on, treat it as a volatile digest; the 79,000-80,000 above is still the selling pressure zone. Don't expect a single bullish candlestick to hit new highs. If it breaks 77,200, the lower boundary will open up quickly. Around 75,000, it's easy to sweep a stop loss, and below that is the more solid cost zone around 72,000. Don't chase the high now, and don't buy the bottom every time it drops. ETFs just ended a 9-day net inflow, and funds have shifted from rushing to waiting, waiting for the data to be released before acting. $ETH Around 2470, it's slightly more resistant than BTC, but the resistance is a drop, not a rise. ETF inflows are all about medium-term logic; short-term liquidity extraction won't solve the macro liquidity problem. The Americans are currently overwhelmed and have been managing with expectations. Walsh's hawkish talk is actually watching the market's reaction. He will wait until the nonfarm payrolls and CPI clearly state rate hike expectations before considering #IntensiveEmployment Data Releases, Warsh's Policy Position Put to the Test Woke up and glanced at the data, something quite interesting.
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has surged above 50%. Meanwhile, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 dropped from 60% to 33%.
Institutions are redefining this thing — moving it from a high-beta tech asset to the basket of inflation hedges and safe-haven assets.
After calling it "digital gold" for so many years, this is the first time I've seen such a clear shift in the data.
Then the US and Iran clashed again. The US military airstruck Iran, and BTC plunged from 79,166 directly down to 76,762. When geopolitical tensions rise, all risk assets tremble, and BTC was no exception. Over 115 million longs were wiped out within an hour. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 315 million, with longs accounting for 251 million. Do the bulls chasing longs feel the pain?
ETFs can't be relied on either. Yesterday, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 35.3 million USD, 449.4 BTC. BlackRock was buying at the 200 million level just a couple of days ago, then suddenly started running.
Willy Woo said something quite sobering: the global fiat currency system has only operated for 55 years, compared to thousands of years of hard currency history, it’s more like an "experiment." According to his calculation, if Bitcoin really becomes the global hard currency, the corresponding price would be 5 million USD per coin.
Institutions are moving BTC toward safe-haven assets, but when geopolitical tensions rise, BTC still falls. Is it "digital gold" or "high-beta tech stock"? Even the market hasn’t figured it out yet.
#Bitcoin #USIranConflict #DigitalGold The first day of September was still very exciting. First came the bond market crisis, with the global bond market selling wave worsening further. Don't underestimate the real impact of this part, as it is closely tied to inflation. During the night session, the US-Iran conflict flared up again, this time a real blow, and both sides maintained a very tough stance. Oil prices immediately responded, and oil prices were most directly reflected in inflation data, forming a death spiral. Friday's nonfarm payroll data is very important. Of course, in this market, risk and opportunity coexist; just calmly accept whatever may happen. Recently, Mi Shen's strategy, direction, and positioning have been just right. As always: meet expectations, act according to plan, subtract more, and reduce some speculation at the market. This way, watching and making trades will be much easier. Next, let's take a look at today's technical highlights together with Mixen: BTC: From 61,000 in August to near a recent high of around 81,500, Bitcoin's short-term recovery has been very strong. Data shows that August outperformed all other markets during the same period. September's events did not yield any significant impacts, and the short-term accumulated profitable chips are well understood. Combined with external events (US, Iran, bond markets), synchronized adjustments here are normal. Mixer believes that since Bitcoin has recently gained recognition and its trend remains intact, the medium- to long-term outlook remains optimistic. In the short term, one should focus fully on a signal: when Bitcoin is adjusting in sync with the global market, suddenly at some point it stops falling and rises against the trend. At this point, you can consider buying back your shares. On the technical chart, I have marked several possible entry positions. First,$CORE Regular holders should focus on 3 key signals
⚠️ For event observation reference only, not investment advice
Signal 1: Validator node upgrade ratio (most critical)
Whether the hard fork succeeds depends on whether the vast majority of validators switch to the new version.
✅ Good scenario: Over 95% of validators complete the upgrade, the old chain's hash power is almost zero, the old chain dies directly, no competing chain forms, and risk is greatly reduced.
⚠️ Dangerous scenario: A significant portion of validators refuse to upgrade, the old chain continues running. Excessively minted coins remain on the old chain, which may enter the market to dump, causing price pressure.
Signal 2: Public statements from major exchanges
Focus on how top exchanges choose:
1. Whether they clearly support only the new chain after the fork and abandon the old chain;
2. Suspension of CORE deposits and withdrawals before and after the fork is routine and should not cause panic;
3. If exchanges list tokens on the old chain, two sets of tokens will appear, causing huge selling pressure in the market.
As long as all exchanges reject the old chain, even if a few nodes run the old chain, the old chain's coins cannot be liquidated, so the threat is minimal.
Signal 3: Official release of a complete fault report
Focus on two key data points in the report:
1. The total amount of excessively minted CORE; the larger the amount, the greater the negative impact of the event;
2. The specific disposal plan for the excess coins in the hard fork: whether they are directly destroyed, permanently frozen, or handled otherwise.
The report will also disclose the root cause of the vulnerability, allowing assessment of the project's code quality risk.The US assesses that Iran is planning to expand attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, missile strike news just came from near Ahvaz inside Iran. If this route really becomes chaotic, global oil transportation will be choked.
The timing is very sensitive. US Treasury yields are approaching multi-year highs, bond traders are frantically buying insurance hedges, and at the G20 finance ministers' meeting, the US directly stated that if no joint communiqué is reached, it will issue a separate statement, showing a tough stance without mercy.
The current logic is clear: once geopolitical risks escalate, the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts is compressed, funding uncertainty soars, and under such macro pressure, whether $BTC is a safe-haven asset or a risk asset remains unanswered by the market. $ETH and $SOL are even more directly under pressure.
But there is one detail I haven't finished mentioning: what exactly is the target of the US military strike? There is a very intriguing point in the official wording.
What do you think will happen to the crypto market if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz really escalates? Today's market is bearish but not extreme. After $BTC fell below 78,000, it found some support at 77,200, indicating there are still buyers below, but they are hesitant to push higher. On the macro side: rising interest rate expectations and bond market volatility are bearish for crypto. In the short term, don't expect an immediate rebound to 80,000; first watch the 76,000 level for defense and attack. If it can hold above 76,000 for a few days, there will be more opportunities later; if it accelerates downward, treat 74,000 as the stop-loss point.The US and Iran are at war again, crude oil surged 6% in a single day, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.789% (the highest since January last year), and Powell turned hawkish, raising expectations for a September rate hike. Negative factors are piling up, and the whole internet is waiting for a crash. (Figure 1)
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
But today's ETF numbers are honest: BTC had nearly $200 million net inflow in a single day, with a 7-day total of $778 million; ETH had a single-day net inflow of $71.56 million, with a 7-day total exceeding $700 million. BlackRock's IBIT alone holds 780,000 BTC and is still adding positions. (Figure 2)
Money that really wants to run never waits until the day of war to flee.
The only detail that makes me hesitate is this: $BTC spot demand has turned negative for two consecutive days, while futures demand is still holding up, but the spot leg is weakening. (Figures 3, 4)
I can't pretend not to see this—there is indeed a short-term risk of bottoming.
But ETH shows a completely different picture: whale accumulation signals have reappeared, and both MACD and EMA are turning bullish.
My judgment is straightforward: for the rest of Q3, the catch-up logic for $ETH is cleaner than for BTC. Geopolitical conflicts and rate hike expectations have historically never truly reversed the direction of capital flows; they only create hesitation about getting on board.Crash again, crashed again, A-shares are about to fall back to 3800, yesterday US tech stocks collectively pulled back,
$NVDA started to follow the decline, $INTC, $AMD, storage and AI hardware chains are generally under pressure, the S&P tech sector fell about 1% overall. Previously, geopolitical conflicts caused gold to rise and crude oil to rise; now crude oil is rising and gold is falling, mainly related to the increased probability of a rate hike yesterday.
There are two views in the market now:
1. More bearish: oil prices are no longer a short-term spike, crude oil has reached $94.65; the 10-year US Treasury yield is also approaching 4.8%-5%. If these two variables continue to rise simultaneously, a further compression of tech stock valuations is almost inevitable. Also, historically September is a month when US stocks perform poorly, with the S&P's long-term average return in September about -1.1%.
2. Less bullish: fundamentals are not bad, JOLTS job openings are about 7.27 million, the labor market has not collapsed significantly, and demand for AI has been continuously increasing.
If oil prices and yields continue to rise, and NVDA breaks below 215, then the tech sector's catch-up decline is very likely not over; but if crude oil falls back near 92 and the 10Y yield declines, then AI hardware will likely see a quick rebound.#BTC #ETH
4.24 billion sounds impressive, but in the context of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, it's actually just a drop in the bucket.
What’s really interesting is that since the beginning of this year, the Fed has been injecting liquidity into the market through regular bond purchases and repo operations in a "drip" manner.
Just in the past week alone, it has injected tens of billions through various channels.
This is what deserves attention—the direction is changing, and liquidity is gradually shifting toward easing. 3.2B FLOWS INTO CRYPTO — BUT WHERE IS THE MONEY GOING?
Crypto funds recorded $3.2B in net inflows in the final week of August, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025. The week before saw $392M in outflows, meaning flows reversed by roughly $3.6B in just one week.
Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted around $1.92B, while Ethereum took $697M, accounting for nearly 81% of total inflows.
Hidden signal: This isn’t Altseason yet. Institutional money is still moving BTC → ETH → higher-risk assets.$BTC It fluctuated back near 77,200, sliding all the way from 79,200 in 24 hours, hitting a low of 76,400. The probability of a rate hike in September has already surpassed 66%, and the 30-year Treasury yield has risen again, with high-beta assets truly being suffocated. The August ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.6, lower than the previous 55.6 and below the expected 55.2, indicating that manufacturing expansion is slowing. However, the price sub-index jumped from 55.3 to 71.1—production cost pressures have not diminished but increased. JOLTS job openings are 7.27 million, below the expected 7.31 million but slightly up from the revised 7.18 million in June, indicating labor demand has not collapsed. This is the Fed's biggest headache: the economy is cooling, but raw material and energy prices are still climbing, far from the 2% inflation target. Wash has already drawn the line at Jackson Hole—"Unless inflation is clear and returns quickly enough to 2%, there's still work to be done." The market listened, and the probability of a rate hike jumped from 35% before the speech to over 60%. On SanDisk's side, the MSCI global index adjustment took effect, passive funds pushed the market close, surged pre-market but then pulled back. Being included in MSCI means ETFs and index funds bring ongoing passive buying, providing long-term support for liquidity and valuation centers. But the market quickly shifted back to discussions about the NAND cycle and valuation divergence. AI logic isn't bad, but expectations are ahead of the curve, and funds choose to cash in first after earnings reports. Bitcoin nowZORA's movement these past two days looks exactly like a double-sided hunt wiping out both longs and shorts. On-chain data clearly shows that in the past 24 hours, the liquidation amounts for both buy and sell orders across the entire network hovered around $1 million—both sides were almost equally flushed out, with chips rapidly changing hands amid intense turnover, and the number of holders visibly shrinking.📉
I have decided to proactively close my short positions that I previously set up today. It's not that the bearish logic has been overturned, but rather that with the price having dropped to this level, the risk-reward ratio for holding on is no longer attractive. Instead of wasting patience in a narrow range, it's better to save energy for clearer targets. Some friends joked about going against me, hoping you weren't hurt by this double-sided spike.
The strategy remains unchanged: every day, screen for newly emerging copycat tokens on the gainers list and lightly test short positions. These tokens are often driven by sentiment, and their decline after the hype fades is usually fast, but timing is difficult, so only small positions are taken each time with strict stop-losses. The market never lacks opportunities; what’s scarce is hands that can wait and hold.🙏
Risk warning: Copycat tokens have limited liquidity and depth; shorting may encounter extreme pumps, so please control your position size and make independent decisions. $ZORAThe flow of funds is telling a clear story: the continuous net inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have built a solid buying base for Bitcoin and Ethereum. But the market's focus is quietly shifting from "who is buying" to "who will stop"—every statement from the Federal Reserve now potentially carries more weight than a single daily candlestick.
As prices continue to extend upward, the sensitivity of valuations to interest rate expectations multiplies. Once the Fed signals a hawkish stance, capital is likely to quickly switch to a defensive posture, triggering a high-level pullback. This is not alarmism but an inherent linkage between risk assets and the liquidity environment.
In such a delicate window, chasing every bullish candle is actually not cost-effective. I prefer to focus on $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $OKB, and $TRUMP—assets already validated by the market—while maintaining ample cash positions to patiently deploy after volatility subsides. ETFs provide upward momentum, while the Fed defines the boundaries of pressure; the balance between the two often marks the dividing line between rationality and greed.
Risk warning: The market is extremely sensitive to policy signals, and short-term volatility may intensify. Please carefully assess your own risk tolerance.After the MSCI rebalancing officially took effect, the pre-market performance of SanDisk-related stock $SNDK weakened first, and market sentiment quickly shifted from yesterday's excitement to caution. From the market perspective, these types of short-term explosive stocks often exhibit a clear "symmetrical rise and fall" characteristic— the larger the gain yesterday, the heavier the pressure to give back today. Essentially, they act more like tools for repeatedly extracting liquidity within a fluctuating range rather than the start of a trending market.
Currently, most major funds are still trapped in large-cap blue chips, leaving limited incremental funds for small and mid-cap stocks. Under this liquidity structure, the volatility of $SNDK is further amplified, and the pre-market price decline has already priced in some adjustment expectations. If the weakness continues after the official market open tonight, the cost-effectiveness of shorting intraday is not ideal, since the price has already reacted in advance.
It is worth noting that after the MSCI rebalancing takes effect, the inflow and outflow directions of passive funds may temporarily diverge from active trading logic, causing the valuation anchor points of the NAND sector to be scrutinized more closely. Assets with strong speculative characteristics like these are only suitable for very short-term high sell and low buy strategies, requiring extremely high timing and discipline. Investors without a spot holding base position often easily fall into passive traps.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, please rationally assess your own risk tolerance. This article does not constitute any investment advice. $SNDK