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Top Gainer $LA +14.38% | Short Squeeze by the Whales | Brothers and Cousins Liquidated to Zero
$LA +14% top gainer but don't chase, light short at 2x before resistance at 0.0699 with stop loss at 0.072 and target at 0.061. The whales pushed to 0.06986 on August 22, then slammed down to 0.04728, dropping 32%, quickly selling off at the high. For the next half month, it ranged sideways between 0.053 and 0.057 with volume shrinking to 2-3 million U, pretending to be dead. Today at 5 PM, volume surged from 0.0575 to 0.069 with volume ratio 3.5x, fee rate -0.344%, shorts paying longs every 8 hours, pure short squeeze pressure. But OI inflow was 520k yesterday and outflow 290k today, some are already exiting after the pump.
0.06986 was the distribution top by whales on August 22, 0.04417 was the accumulation bottom on August 5, 0.06904 is today's high volume peak. A single 14% big bullish candle looks fierce, just 1.2% below the previous high; chasing to the previous high and catching a falling knife takes guts. Whales will either continue the short squeeze to break 0.07 or smash back below 0.06.
From the group’s big cousin: At 6 PM, saw $LA rise from 0.057 to 0.067, up 17%, got impulsive and went all in long at 20x leverage at 0.06755, forcibly liquidated at 0.06417. Within an hour, price dropped to 0.0639, directly breaking the liquidation line, 345 U margin gone in a snap. Later it bounced back to 0.069, I didn’t even bother watching, just pure money handed to the whales. Have you noticed the market sentiment quietly changing recently?
Based on past trends, before selecting the mid-term, the overall market usually enters a phase of oscillation and weakening. Coupled with the previous hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, the pressure has actually been persistent.
For the foreseeable future, whether it's the US stock market or cryptocurrencies, most tech assets are likely to face pressure. Only safe-haven assets like gold, silver, and energy are relatively resistant to declines.
My personal view is that there's no rush to go long at this stage; the broader trend leans more towards looking for opportunities to short on rallies. The market won't drop all at once, so remember to manage your position size carefully and avoid heavy bets on direction. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 ADP 3.8万，加息概率66%，市场在交易什么？ 晚上8:15，美国8月ADP就业数据公布：增加3.8万人，低于预期的4.8万，也低于前值的4.4万。 这是今年1月以来最小增幅。 按常理，就业数据低于预期，美联储加息的底气应该弱了，风险资产应该涨。但今晚的情况有点不对劲——BTC在76,800附近晃悠，没涨。 为什么？ 因为今晚的市场，被两件事同时压着。 第一件事：美伊冲突。 美军空袭伊朗，油价冲上90美元，10年期美债收益率飙到4.79%。油涨→通胀预期升温→加息预期强化。这条逻辑链跟ADP数据是反着来的——ADP说就业弱，油价说通胀强。 第二件事：加息预期已经很高了。 ADP公布前，CME数据显示9月加息25个基点的概率已经是66.2%。ADP低于预期后，这个数字反而没怎么降——市场更相信油价和债市传递的信号。 所以今晚的盘面其实是一个矛盾： ADP说就业在降温，加息压力应该减轻。但油价和美债收益率说通胀还在，加息还得加。 谁对谁错？周五非农见分晓。ADP只是前菜，9月4日的8月非农报告才是正餐。 如果非农也弱，加息概率可能回落，BTC有机会反弹。如果非农强，加息概率可能冲到70Today's trading plan:
Before 7 AM New York time, $BTC dipped below the VWAP of the entire upward move, while also sweeping through a liquidation liquidity dense area. I received a spike long position around 76,250.
After the price rebounded, it was once just a bit away from the take-profit point, but then it fell back and closed a bearish rejection candle on the 1-hour chart. The original rebound logic started to weaken, so I closed the position and exited.
The upcoming price action tonight will be very critical.
The previously repeatedly supported 77,000–77,450 support zone has now been broken. It may form a support-resistance flip and overlap with the FVG left above. Tonight, I will focus on observing the price performance after it rebounds into this area.
If the price fills the FVG and enters the support-resistance flip zone but then starts to weaken, showing rejection or a short-term structural bearish turn, I will look for a short-term shorting opportunity.
This round of rally was very fast, with almost no sufficient volume accumulation in between. Once the 75,500 neckline is confirmed broken, there are not many chips to support the price along the way. Whether the price can hold will rely more on market sentiment, and it is possible that the entire previous upward move could be retraced down.
The weakness of $ETH is even more obvious; it has already fallen below and closed under the VWAP of the entire upward move. If the subsequent rebound cannot retake the VWAP, ETH may continue to act as a leading signal for further decline.Vladimir Tikhomirov: RWA has already moved assets on-chain, but the real problem is—no one trades them after moving them on-chain. For the past few years, RWAs have been solving one problem: how to move traditional assets like stocks, bonds, and funds on-chain. But now, with assets truly on-chain, new problems have emerged: Who will buy? Where will they be traded? Where will the liquidity come from? On September 1, Theorem officially launched a secondary market infrastructure specifically for tokenized RWAs. Founder Vladimir Tikhomirov's judgment was straightforward: the first phase task was to put assets on-chain, and this step was basically solved; the next phase was how to make these assets truly flow. 1. RWA scale is already considerable, but not many are actually flowing Industry-based estimates cited by Theorem show that by June 2026, tokenized assets have exceeded about $28 billion. But only about $3 billion has actually entered DeFi usage. More obviously, 93%–100% of RWA protocols' funds still come from primary subscriptions, with only about 0%–6% actually bought through DEXs. In other words, although many assets are already "on-chain," their trading methods still resemble traditional funds: issuance → user subscriptions → holding → redemption. True on-chain secondary transactions are still very limited. 2. What RWAs lack now may not be more assets, but the secondary market. This is also TheoWriting $CORE｜距离历史低点又近了一步 CORE今天继续走弱，价格一度来到 0.02022 USDT，24小时低点触及 0.01975，距离此前提到的历史低点 0.01678 已经非常接近。 从技术面来看，MA5、MA10、MA20全部位于价格上方，短期均线呈明显空头排列。 价格跌破多条均线之后，反弹力度依然有限，说明目前市场承接资金明显不足。 但真正值得关注的，还是基本面风险。 Core DAO此前因验证节点出现异常奖励问题，实施紧急硬分叉进行修复。 这件事本身并不意味着项目“归零”，但对于一个强调安全性和去中心化基础设施的公链来说，验证节点奖励异常无疑会增加市场对其代码、治理以及网络安全机制的担忧。 再看价格： 从历史高点 14.48 USDT 到目前约 0.02022 USDT，跌幅已经达到 99.86%左右。 而且价格仍然处于历史低位附近。 更值得警惕的是成交量。 如果市场成交持续萎缩，意味着流动性越来越差。流动性不足并不代表一定会继续暴跌，但大额买卖对价格的影响会明显放大。 所以现在的 $CORE，我个人更倾向于把它当成一个高风险观察标的，而不是看到价格足够低就直#21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch USD Stablecoin Family, 21 Wall Street Giants Join Forces on Stablecoin, This Is More Important Than Short-Term ETF Inflows.
Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Wells Fargo—half of Wall Street has formed a group, planning to establish a new company in the second half of 2026 and push the market forward in the first half of 2027. The goal is clear—cross-border payments, digital asset settlement, wholesale, institutional, and retail all want a piece. Regulatory preparations are also in place, with the GENIUS Act and MiCA regulations following suit.
This is on a completely different scale compared to any single bank's previous pilot efforts. Traditional finance is not testing the waters; it is organizing a coalition to enter the market. If these financial institutions really launch a stablecoin, the competition will extend from issuance scale to payment networks, banking client channels, reserve management, and compliance capabilities.
Whether bank-grade stablecoins can generate independent usage demand or will continue to borrow liquidity within the USDT and USDC ecosystems is the key issue to watch next.
Traditional finance is accelerating its entry. Join the discussion in the comments about whether you think bank-backed stablecoins can challenge the positions of USDT and USDC. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH $UNI Market Analysis: BTC and Gold Falling in Sync, Is the Digital Gold Correlation Reliable?
$BTC and $XAU Gold have recently pulled back together, with US stocks weakening as well, showing a clear decline in market risk appetite. BTC is around 77,500, while gold has dropped to 4,300.
Although both are often called safe-haven assets, their driving factors differ: gold is mainly influenced by the US dollar, real interest rates, and central bank gold purchases; BTC depends more on liquidity, institutional funds, and market sentiment.
The Federal Reserve remains the key variable, with September rate hike expectations rising, pushing up the dollar and US Treasury yields, which in turn suppress both assets.
For BTC, focus on the 75,500–77,500 support range; it is not advisable to be aggressively bullish before it stabilizes above 80,000. For gold, watch whether 4,300 holds steady; if US Treasury yields continue to rise, downward pressure remains.
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 In this U.S. August ADP private employment increase was only 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000, and weaker than the revised July 46,000, marking the lowest increase since January this year. Looking at sub-sectors, manufacturing, information technology, and professional services jobs contracted, while new jobs were concentrated in education, healthcare, construction, and leisure services. From a fundamental logic perspective, this data leans dovish, with labor recruitment activity continuing to decline, theoretically weakening the Fed's motivation for further rate hikes. However, the market has seen a contradictory trend: after ADP was implemented, U.S. stocks briefly strengthened, while Treasury yields temporarily declined, with short-term trading and weakening employment expectations; However, the probability of a rate hike in September remains around 68%, still high from 36% a week earlier. The core contradiction has emerged: employment data is starting to weaken, but inflation risks from rising oil prices have resurfaced, with the two forces pulling each other at each other. For the Fed, only a slight drop in new jobs has occurred, but there has not been large-scale unemployment; officials can still say the labor market is only cooling moderately, not enough to abandon fighting inflation. What truly rewrites market pricing is the official nonfarm payroll data to be released on Friday. Reuters research forecasts that nonfarm payrolls will add 56,000 in August, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. If nonfarm payrolls are only 20,000-30,000 new jobs or even negative, the market will reconsider pausing rate hikes; If nonfarms maintain 50,000 to 80,000 jobs and wages and unemployment remain stable, then this weak ADP will have limited impact, and inflationary pressure from oil prices will continue to dominate. Reflecting on the Bitcoin market,#日本长债收益率升至高位
Latest data
Japan's 10-year government bond yield has reached the 3% mark, hitting a multi-year high. The cost of yen carry trades has increased, putting pressure on global bond markets. On the board, $BTC is at 76806.
Market consensus
Some voices worry that the unwinding of low-cost yen carry trade funds will indirectly drain liquidity from global risk assets; others believe the short-term impact is limited, with the main focus still on the direction of US Treasury yields.
Underlying logic analysis
In the past, a large amount of capital borrowed low-interest yen to buy overseas high-yield assets. With rising Japanese bond yields and increased financing costs, there is a risk of forced deleveraging. This represents a hidden disturbance to global liquidity, which will not directly determine cryptocurrency prices but will amplify market volatility.
Personal view (I tend to believe the bull market will gradually return; this is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice)
This is a macro risk point to watch, no need to panic excessively, be alert to sudden spikes, and maintain position management. Writing $CORE｜OKX为什么下架CORE链上赚币？4层逻辑一次讲清楚 ⚠️ 风险提示：虚拟货币具有高波动和高风险，本文仅作行业信息复盘，不构成任何投资建议。 先说最重要的一点： OKX下架CORE的“链上赚币/质押”功能，不等于OKX下架CORE现货交易。 目前并没有看到OKX针对CORE单独发布一份长篇定性说明，因此下面更多是结合质押机制、交易所产品逻辑以及行业环境进行分析，不能视为OKX官方确认的唯一原因。 ① 协议层面的风险 CORE链上质押存在一定的解锁和赎回周期。 用户委托质押后，并不能像现货一样随时立即拿回资产。 对于交易所而言，这意味着： 用户资产托管 + 节点运行 + 赎回调度 + 网络异常风险 都需要平台承担。 如果遇到主网升级、验证人异常或者协议层面的技术问题，平台就可能面临流动性和用户兑付压力。 因此，对于交易所来说： 能不能安全、稳定、低成本地代用户完成质押，是非常重要的风控因素。 但需要特别强调： ❗这不代表CORE“归零” ❗也不代表CORE主网已经停止运行 ❗更不代表现货交易一定会被下架 目前讨论的核心，是OKX不再提供代用户参与链上质押的入口$XPL this 50x short, entered at 0.08914, 0.0821, +394.88%. The ticket I'm watching is "New coin heat fading + linear unlocking schedule." Plasma (XPL) has the aura of Tether/Founders Fund, stablecoin L1 narrative, zero-fee USDT transfers, and EVM, but the total token supply is 10 billion, with 40% for the ecosystem, 25% for the team, and 25% for early investors.
After mainnet launch, monthly releases occur, with unlocking pulses of about 88.89 million tokens (nearly 4% of circulating supply) in March, May, and October; Binance moved to standard contracts before market open, and the platform offers 50x, indicating sufficient liquidity/volatility, but also prone to being shaken out by funding rates and high leverage.
The chart shows a rise followed by a decline with oscillations, each rebound lower than the last, resistance around 0.085-0.086. 50x has very thin fault tolerance; trailing take profit around 0.084-0.085, reduce position if it stands back above 0.086 or if unlocking/stablecoin card (Plasma One) news stimulates. $BTC $ETH #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Meme coins just got a fresh retail catalyst, but the timing is tricky. Robinhood’s CEO has teased more memecoin activity, while SHIB is already being watched around a potential breakout structure. But the broader market is moving the other way. Oil is above $95 and Treasury yields are pushing higher as U.S.–Iran tensions increase. That kind of macro pressure usually makes high-beta assets like meme coins much less forgiving. So I’m not chasing the first green candle. For DOGE/USDT, SHIB/USDT a$ZEC Although posting this now is a bit of hindsight, I think we can learn how this professional trader "predicted" a -6% bearish move in ZEC within a few hours.
Basics: In the contract market, stacking leverage in the same direction is often a dangerous top signal.
The first thing he noticed was the divergence between contracts and spot:
Contract side net inflow surged +$7.17M (+659%), while spot side net inflow was -$1.71M (outflow).
Leverage is like a paper tiger, but what really made him judge the danger signal was the second thing:
Within just 5 minutes, another $2.1 million flowed into contracts.
In order flow analysis, this is usually seen as "liquidity exhaustion" and "end-stage chasing highs."
Then it became obvious: a group of people entered simultaneously in the same interval, so many stop-loss orders were almost overlapping and very close to the current price. As soon as a moderate long exited due to volatility to lock in floating profits, it immediately triggered a long liquidation cascade, followed by an avalanche.
Such signals are usually instantaneous anomalies; looking back now, the data is hard to find (most data is cumulative). You have to be an expert to be that sensitive.
So trading has two career choices: one is pure data, the other is intuition.
Train your data sensitivity to the best, or hone your market sense finely (but keep your scope reasonable and know how to take profits).$XAU Recent interesting market phenomena: Traditional safe-haven asset XAU gold and digital safe-haven asset BTC Bitcoin have unusually shown simultaneous declines. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen back to the 77,000 mark, gold is testing the 4300 level, and overnight US stocks, precious metals, and crypto markets have all weakened, with overall market risk appetite cooling down. Many people are beginning to wonder: Is the safe-haven linkage logic between gold and BTC stable? Which is more resilient to declines or has better recovery potential over longer or shorter cycles? In fact, although both are classified as safe-haven sectors by the market, their core driving logic is completely different. A synchronized correction is just a resonance of macro pressure, not a complete binding of trends. The core of gold pricing is anchored to the strength of the US dollar, real US Treasury yields, global central bank reserves, and physical safe-haven demand, with a relatively stable trend and a more traditional logic. Bitcoin's so-called digital gold attributes rely more on market liquidity, institutional capital inflows and outflows, and overall market sentiment, resulting in greater volatility and stronger capital attributes. The core culprit currently suppressing all assets is the renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Latest data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has surged above 66%, the US dollar index has held high levels, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries continues to climb. The high interest rate environment directly suppresses all non-yielding and safe-haven assets, which is the fundamental reason for both gold and BTC being under pressure. From a short-term market perspective: $BTC 75,000–77,000 is the core short-term support range. Before it holds above 80,000, the overall market remains volatile and weak, so blind bullish views are not advisable $The market changed character overnight. BTC pulled back from ~$79K toward $76.4K while ETH slipped below $2.4K. At the same time, oil pushed above $90 and the U.S. 10Y yield climbed near 4.82% as U.S.–Iran tensions increased. That macro pressure is hitting risk assets together. But here's the part I’m watching: BTC is still holding the $76K–$77K zone, while August saw roughly $3.5B of net U.S. spot BTC ETF inflows. Demand hasn't completely disappeared — price is simply being tested against a mu"Early birds" of correction in the crypto market, at least we are talking about altcoins. Today, according to our P73 CryptoMarket Monitor, from the TOP-200 crypto assets, one asset moved to a stable downtrend on the daily TF and eight - on the 12-hour TF. On the daily TF, the downtrend gave #TRX, which generally has its own specific chart. But on the 12-hour TF, the situation is more interesting. Most of the secondary assets on the list there, such as #AERO and #FARTCOIN. But there is also an asset from the TOP-10 - #XRP. BazoThe recent decline in Bitcoin is the result of multiple factors combined, with the core reasons mainly concentrated in the following aspects:
1. Rising expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve policy
Federal Reserve officials delivered tough statements at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, emphasizing that inflation has not truly slowed down, and the market probability of a rate hike in September surged directly to 66.4%. The opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets like Bitcoin has consequently risen. Coupled with Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 index reaching as high as 87%, risk assets collectively faced sell-offs, directly suppressing Bitcoin's valuation.
2. Geopolitical conflicts intensify inflation concerns
The escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices sharply higher, reigniting market worries about inflation rebound, further strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates. Global risk assets are under overall pressure, and Bitcoin weakened in sync with the broader market.
3. Volatility in spot ETF fund flows
The US spot Bitcoin ETF, which had seen continuous net inflows for several days, experienced a large single-day net outflow of $201.9 million at the end of August. Institutional funds shifted from continuous entry to a phase of cautious observation, weakening short-term incremental fund support and amplifying negative market sentiment.
4. Concentrated release of prior profit-taking and leveraged selling pressure
Bitcoin's cumulative monthly gain reached 28% in August, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking. When the price quickly fell back, it triggered forced liquidation of many long leveraged positions. Nearly 100,000 people were liquidated within 24 hours, with total liquidation amounts close to $480 million, forming a negative cycle of "decline-liquidation-further decline," accelerating the price downturn.$ZEC short at 850 is basically the peak! It has now broken below the whole number support!
It has also broken the trendline and the 817 boundary between bulls and bears! Don't fantasize about it reaching 1000! Unless there is major positive news for privacy coins!
Currently, it looks like it will go down to around 770, so don't go long yet. Wait for stabilization before considering going long or bottom fishing! Also, ZEC doesn't follow the mainstream, so be cautious about going long!
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 $ETH ADP is just an appetizer; the main focus is on Friday's non-farm payrolls
Don't be fooled by ADP fluctuations into taking unnecessary losses.
ADP is just a warm-up for the non-farm payrolls, with moderate impact. It can cause short-term spikes and stop hunts but doesn't determine the big trend. The real highlight is Friday's non-farm payrolls.
Currently, the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.81%. The DXY stands at 99.85, hitting a new high since mid-August. The market's sensitivity to data has increased, so deviations from expectations will amplify volatility.
If data is strong, ETH faces pressure.
If data is weak, it triggers a short-term rebound.
If data meets expectations, the market digests it and continues to fluctuate.
Don't heavily bet on ADP; it's only suitable for short-term trades.
For the mid-term direction, watch Friday's non-farm payroll and wage data.Remember the last AI earnings season? On the day Nvidia exceeded expectations, BTC surged along, then after the earnings were fully priced in, it dropped back. Now Broadcom and Dell are taking over, the script might repeat. Current price 76790, support at 76200, 76000, resistance at 77000, 77500, 78000. I opened a position with 5000U, lightly long near 76200 before earnings, stop loss at 76050, target 77200 to take profit first, then decide whether to follow after earnings release. Lost 200,000U and recovering, never hold a position without stop loss, history doesn't repeat but it rhymes.
$BTC #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #Divergence in pre-nonfarm data, September rate hike expectations heat up Good evening everyone! The data is out, below expectations! Purely logical deduction, not investment advice
$BTC BTC
Market chip stratification is clear: whales holding long-term positions at low levels have a high proportion, and this part of the chips exerts weak selling pressure; newly added ETF chips belong to the mid-to-high institutional cost zone. A large amount of trapped positions are concentrated in the 84000‑88000 range.
In a volatile market, whales won’t easily sell, but newly added institutional chips begin to engage in breakeven battles. Upward movement requires incremental funds to absorb trapped positions; downward, whales will buy at key points, so the pullback resilience is strongest. Weakness: a big rally must rely on external funds, it’s hard to pull out a big bullish candle with just existing chips.
$ETH ETH
Chip structure is more mixed, with early long-term holders as well as a large amount of short-term funds from L2 and staking arbitrage. Staking funds move in and out following yields and regulatory news, so chip stability is weaker than BTC.
The trapped position range above is wide, with a large accumulation of previously trapped chips from 3600‑4200. On-chain arbitrage funds are "event-driven chips," which tend to cash out easily when positive news arrives. Often on-chain data looks good, but chips concentrate to dump, causing gains to lag the broader market.
$SOL SOL
Chips are highly retail-dominated, short-term speculative chips dominate, and whales have a high turnover frequency. There is almost no deep long-term holding sediment.
Trapped positions are spread very widely; after a sharp rally, users are trapped at various price levels. When the market is good, new hot money quickly pushes prices up; once sentiment cools, without firm holding support, the decline speed is much faster than BTC/ETH. The rebound height heavily depends on market hotspots and meme popularity.
Summary
In a stagnant market, chip resilience ranking: BTC > ETH > SOL.
BTC relies on whale base positions to withstand drawdowns but struggles to rally without incremental funds; ETH is disturbed by arbitrage chips, making positive news easy to cash out; SOL lacks sediment chips, rising sharply and falling hard, fully driven by market sentiment.
If the market strengthens, SOL has the greatest elasticity; if the market weakens, SOL’s drawdown will be significantly higher than the other two.
In a stagnant market, chip resilience ranking: BTC > ETH > SOL.
BTC relies on whale base positions to withstand drawdowns but struggles to rally without incremental funds; ETH is disturbed by arbitrage chips, making positive news easy to cash out; SOL lacks sediment chips, rising sharply and falling hard, fully driven by market sentiment.
If the market strengthens, SOL has the greatest elasticity; if the market weakens, SOL’s drawdown will be significantly higher than the other two. September 2nd $SNDK Market Review
#ADP data released, strong employment again raises rate hike expectations
To be honest, after the ADP data was released, the pressure on Sandisk's market immediately became apparent.
This ADP employment data exceeded market expectations, the labor market remains hot, directly pushing up US Treasury yields, and the market further trades on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even raise them, causing high-valuation growth stocks to collectively face valuation suppression.
Even though the industry logic for AI storage hasn't changed, with NAND price increases and long-term capacity lock-ins still on the table, the macro interest rate pressure outweighs the sector's positive fundamentals.
After a brief intraday rally, funds began to take profits and exit, weakening alongside the tech growth sector. Currently, fundamentals and macro factors are pulling against each other, causing this market to fluctuate repeatedly, easily sweeping losses back and forth.
I won't directly conclude that this round of the market is completely over, nor dare to blindly be bullish. ADP is just a warm-up; the bigger test is still the upcoming non-farm payroll data.
If the subsequent non-farm data also performs strongly, US Treasury yields will remain high, and the storage sector will continue to be under pressure. Only if employment clearly cools down will growth stocks have a chance to catch their breath.
Thematic logic cannot overcome macro constraints; at this stage, don't rush to act. Wait for all employment data to be released and for the market to show clear signals before making plans. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Tonight it's my turn to hand in the Broadcom assignment, so exciting!
Broadcom $AVGO is confirmed to release its earnings report after the US market closes tonight. The market currently expects quarterly revenue of about $29.2 billion and adjusted EPS around $3.2. But I'm not so concerned about these two numbers because Broadcom already went through this last earnings report: good numbers, yet the stock price still fell.
Tonight, I'm mainly focusing on AI. Broadcom is now simultaneously making custom AI chips ASICs for big companies like Google $GOOGL and selling AI data center network chips. So the more Nvidia proves that big companies' CapEx hasn't stopped, the more pressure there is on Broadcom's earnings report—the market wants to see not just that "AI is still growing," but how fast it can actually grow.
Currently, the options market is pricing the earnings volatility at about ±7%, and the stock price has already pulled back about 25% from the June high.
I still hold around 355, so my expectations aren't high: AI revenue beats, next quarter guidance raised, and a stronger narrative on AI orders for 2027.
Go Broadcom $xAVGO tonight!
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 DOGE's true moat might precisely be its "no one in charge" nature. Looking back, BCH split from $BTC over block size; ETC separated from $ETH over whether to roll back after The DAO incident. Both internal conflicts share a common premise: the existence of a central authority that can make final decisions—be it a core development team, foundation, or a highly influential leader. Where there is a center, there is value in competing for it; where there is a roadmap, there is fertile ground for disputes over direction. DOGE takes the opposite approach: its code has been nearly frozen for years, the nominal foundation has no troops or power, there is no CEO to set direction, nor a roadmap to contest. The community's consensus on "what DOGE should do" is extremely simple—it doesn't need to do anything, just exist, be fun, and enable transfers. The vaguer the goal, the lower the benefits of splitting: if a "new DOGE" forks off, no one can clearly say how it is better than the old one. The paradox of governance reveals itself here: organizations are created to solve problems, yet often become the biggest problem themselves. DOGE uses minimal structure to dissolve the root causes of internal strife, resulting in an alternative form of resilience.In today's world, the old order is gradually declining, and the new order is not yet solidified. The seas are not peaceful; smoke of war spreads in all directions. The standoff between Israel and Palestine, the turmoil in the Middle East, repeated shocks to shipping routes, and intermittent conflicts. Outwardly, it seems to be a dispute over territory and faith, but at its core, it is driven by resources, routes, and great power rivalry.
The Middle East controls the throat of oil, the lifeline of global commerce. Any disturbance causes gold and oil to surge, and commodities like grain, fertilizer, and chemicals to fluctuate. War ignites in one corner, but waves spread across the seas; it is not just the fortune or misfortune of one place but affects the rise and fall of wealth worldwide.
Europe also faces conflicts, with camps constantly vying for power. These conflicts are not merely the grievances of the people but are largely about hegemonic interests and capital seeking profit, using local chaos to maneuver global influence. Hence, the smoke of war never ceases, bulk commodities often surge violently, and the movements of the US dollar and US debt replicate the prices of goods.
Looking at the crypto market, BTC and ETH cannot remain unaffected. When geopolitical risks trigger safe-haven demand, funds flow to gold and away from crypto; when interest rates remain high, risk assets are suppressed. The upcoming non-farm payroll data is a key indicator for the United States to weigh its power. The strength or weakness of the data corresponds with global conflicts. Strong data boosts the dollar, suppresses gold and oil, and depresses crypto prices; weak data suggests easing is possible, allowing risk assets to breathe.
However, it must be understood that war is the surface, and interests are the root. Geopolitics is an unpredictable variable, and non-farm data is a momentary signal; only by considering both can one observe market advances and retreats. In the game of strategy, avoid all-in bets; assessing the timing and situation is the way to protect oneself.
⚠️ This article is only a scenario analysis of the current situation, not investment advice. The market is unpredictable; caution is advised. $CORE The on-chain earning product has been directly removed; the platform has already redeemed all user staking principal on-chain in advance, and the account will be automatically refunded before 14:00 on September 2, so users do not need to operate manually. 1. Three Key Signals Behind the Scenes 1. Exchange risk control level raise, reassessing CORE project risks. On-chain earning essentially involves investing user tokens into the CORE public chain as node staking to earn interest. Now the platform has proactively redeemed and shut down this business, indicating the exchange is unwilling to help users take on on-chain risks. Recently, CORE just exposed a validator reward bug and abnormal token issuance, prompting the project team to urgently fork a hard fork. Several overseas exchanges have suspended CORE on-chain deposits and withdrawals, which is the risk trigger. The hard fork will cause chain splits, chaotic token measurement, and contract risks. To avoid user asset disputes, exchanges prioritize cutting staking business. 2. Product delisting ≠ coins delisted, but this is a prerequisite signal for delisting! The delisting process for exchanges generally is: first shut down earning, wealth management, leverage, → then close trading pairs. Now it's just the first step: the earning business is taken offline, but spot trading is still retained. But the representative project has already entered the exchange's key watchlist. If the hard fork fails and the problem persists, the next step may affect trading pairs. 3. CORE's narrative logic has been severely damaged! One of CORE's major selling points is $BTC hash staking and on-chain earning yields. Now, leading exchanges directly shut down its on-chain staking products, which means the authorities do not recognize its on-chain staking business and claim community staking yieldsDropped from 79185 to 76204, I reviewed this wave three times: it’s not a technical breakdown, but macro factors plus on-chain sentiment hitting together. Robinhood’s on-chain volume exploded to 1.6 billion, funds all running to play coin stocks meme, BTC is being drained. Current price 76790, support at 76200 and 76000, resistance at 77000 and 77500. I opened a position with 5000U, waiting for stabilization near 76200 to enter again, stop loss at 76050, target 77200. Losing 200,000U and recovering, never hold a position without stop loss, I follow where the funds go but don’t chase highs.
$BTC #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 Bitcoin just posted its strongest August since 2017, rising about 25% in a single month, but is this rally a trend reversal or a short squeeze? This report highlights several key observation points that must be confirmed in September's market, providing valuable reference for both traders and long-term investors.
August catalysts in place. Treasury buybacks boosted Bitcoin by about 25%, marking the best monthly performance since November 2024, coinciding with the historical time window when previous bear markets ended.
The rally has support. Record short liquidations ignited the rally, but open interest is only half of the peak in October 2025, funding rates are not crowded, and $3.05 billion ETF inflows confirm genuine spot demand at the lower levels.
September will be decisive. Watch the $76,000 to $78,000 support range, the sustainability of ETF capital flows, and long-end yields. The $81,000 to $82,000 range is the watershed between a trend reversal and a bear market bounce. Any pullback should be seen as a buying opportunity at the end of the cycle, not a reason to exit. On August 25, Garrett Jin predicted that the "long-term consolidation has just begun," and then on September 2, he explicitly warned "not to short during the consolidation phase." These two warnings were not based on mere intuition but directly pinpointed the fatal mistake retail traders most often make in a choppy market: mistaking "sideways movement without gains" for "trend exhaustion," blindly shorting and thus providing liquidity to the whales. In the crypto market's major cycles, sideways consolidation has never meant price stagnation but rather a drastic reshuffling of chip ownership in physical space. Early profit-taking chips (OG chips) are being handed over to newly entering institutions and spot buyers within the current price range. This large-scale turnover requires a very long time to absorb selling pressure. Blindly opening short positions within a consolidation box essentially means using your derivatives leverage to block the spot whales' intention to absorb. Once the turnover is complete and selling pressure is exhausted, short positions instantly become the best fuel to drive a price breakout upward—a "Short Squeeze." There is a dense accumulation of short stop-loss and liquidation orders not far above BTC's price. Meanwhile, on the spot buying side, the OKX order book has large limit buy orders at lower support levels. With strong support below and crowded short positions above, the risk-reward ratio for shorting is extremely unfavorable. The divergence between open interest (OI) and funding rate: OKX real-time monitoring shows that during BTC's range-bound oscillation, the open interest (OI) of perpetual contracts remains high.The current global situation is far from peaceful, with ongoing conflicts in the Middle Eastern shipping routes. If the situation escalates, sectors like gold, oil, grains, fertilizers, and chemicals inherently have upward momentum. Meanwhile, the non-farm payroll data will alter expectations for the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which will either amplify or suppress this commodity rally, and directly impact the BTC and ETH markets. Here are three scenarios explained in simple terms.
First scenario: Non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations.
US employment is booming, reducing expectations for rate cuts, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to rise.
In the crypto space: BTC and ETH face downward pressure, and highly elastic altcoins like $SOL fall even more sharply. Avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
Commodities: Interest rate pressure dominates; even with geopolitical risk support, gold is likely to face resistance; oil, grains, fertilizers, and chemicals see their supply-driven price increases offset by a stronger dollar, leading to a spike followed by a pullback. Geopolitics is the underlying factor, but Fed interest rates will dominate prices in the short term.
Second scenario: Non-farm payrolls roughly meet expectations.
Data shows no surprises, and Fed policy expectations remain unchanged.
Crypto markets remain range-bound, with BTC and ETH showing no strong directional moves, and altcoin activity remains low.
Commodities revert to being driven by geopolitical factors. If Middle East tensions persist, gold, oil, grains, fertilizers, and chemicals continue to strengthen; if the situation eases, these commodities pull back and fluctuate, with the market fully switching according to geopolitical news.
Steady and cautious.A coin with a daily trading volume of $6,198, and you call it "resistant to decline"? $DOGE
The overall market is falling, GODE rises 0.33%, with a 24-hour volatility of only 0.59%. Some say this is called resistance to decline. I say this means no one is trading.
GODE is priced at $0.00009846, with a 24-hour trading volume of $6,198—not ten thousand, but six thousand one hundred ninety-eight dollars. Circulating supply is 500 million, total supply 5 billion, circulation rate 5%, market cap under $1 million, basically only traded on MEXC. Its all-time high was 0.1598, and the return since crowdfunding is -95.08%.
Its correlation with BTC is -0.61; some take this as evidence of an "independent market." Absurd. Negative correlation is not because it has independent logic, but because it has no price discovery at all. A daily volume of $6,000 means the candlestick chart is just a few people's quotes, not a real market.
My stance is even stronger: the biggest risk of such a micro-cap coin is not the price drop, but that you can't sell on the day you want to. The order book is as thin as paper, 95% of tokens are still locked, and a single large order can crash or pump the price.
If you really want to bet on multiples, look for tokens with real trading volume, an ecosystem, and listings on mainstream exchanges. GODE is not an opportunity; it is a textbook "do not touch" list.#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
The recent US data is somewhat contradictory, giving reasons for both bullish and bearish views. The market has seen an increase in bets on a September rate hike, and $BTC has been directly hit down.
Bitcoin has dropped quite noticeably these past two days, hitting a low of 76261 and now hovering around 76500. Just a couple of days ago, it was firmly above 78000, dropping nearly 2000 points in a short span.
A quick rundown of the data: manufacturing activity has cooled down, but price costs remain high; job openings have slightly decreased, yet the employment market hasn't completely collapsed. These mixed signals are pulling in opposite directions, with neither side dominating.
Currently, rate hike expectations have surged above 66%, and with US Treasury yields rising, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin naturally face pressure.
Everyone is now waiting for a major event: the non-farm payroll data at 8:30 PM on September 4th!
If the data disappoints, rate hike expectations may cool down, giving the crypto price a chance to rebound; if the data exceeds expectations strongly, the market will remain tough, and 77000 likely won't hold, sliding down to 75000.
A reminder: at this stage, the market is prone to sharp fluctuations, and chasing highs or selling lows can easily lead to repeated losses. No rush to act—waiting for the data to settle before deciding the direction is safer.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Today macro has put crypto and US stocks in the same pit.
Conflict between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz flared up again, oil price WTI broke 90, Brent surged to 94.65, 10-year US Treasury yield touched 4.8%, 30-year hit 5.26. Risk assets collectively took a hit.
The logic behind this linkage is the same: oil prices push up inflation expectations, bond yields follow, non-yielding coins and tech stocks with distant cash flows get hit by real interest rates. So you see, today it's not just crypto's own issue, it's a cooling of overall risk appetite.
The good news is structural support remains. $BTC spot ETF net inflow on August 31 was 216.7 million, ETH ETF has been positive for 11 consecutive days, institutions are quietly accumulating, the fear and greed index dropped from 73 to 62, it's cooling off, not panic. Crypto total market cap is 2.61 trillion, decline is controllable.
The most critical nail this week is the US August nonfarm payroll on September 4. Weak employment can offset inflation pressure from oil prices, leaving room for Fed easing and risk assets to recover. Strong employment is troublesome, reigniting rate hike expectations, then you really need to fasten your seatbelt.
My overall strategy: don't get carried away in a volatile market, keep some position flexibility, core assets (BTC, NVDA, storage leaders) buy in batches on sharp dips, hotspots (DeFi, platform tokens) quick in and out. This week, news is more effective than technicals, keep an eye on nonfarm and the Middle East, leave the rest to discipline. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The whale holding 45,000 $ETH longs can't sit still anymore, selling spot and adding $3.5 million margin to reduce liquidation risk 😬
2 hours ago, he sold 1,500 ETH ($3.75 million) on-chain and made a profit of $618,000, using the obtained USDC as margin deposited into HL; currently, this $107 million long position's unrealized loss has further expanded to $4.8 million, with the latest liquidation price at $2,173.36, leaving a remaining $207 buffer
Portal 👉 0x0392a716dbee1661ea781881826b928daeb5d7d9In the crypto market, the truly important ability is not just to catch the rally, but to know when to hold cash and wait for opportunities. When the price has already gone through a clear rally, chasing higher often means bearing drawdown risk at a higher cost. Now that market volatility is intensifying, patience has actually become an advantage. 📊 My capital structure is also more conservative: 🟠 core positions 55% → $BTC/$ETH🔵, growth positions 25% → $SOL/$XRP🟣, high-risk positions 20% → $KAITO/$BEAT Currently, BTC is still fluctuating around $77K–$79K and has not yet regained the $80K level. On September 1, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $236.5M, while Solana-related ETFs attracted about $101.9M, indicating institutional funds have not completely withdrawn but are rereallocating across different assets. 🌍 The macro environment is also worth watching. The US-Iran situation has pushed energy prices higher, with the yield on the US 10-year Treasury close to 4.81%. Market bets on a Fed rate hike in September have surged from about 37% a week ago to about 70%. The upcoming US employment data to be released this week will be a key variable in determining the market's next direction. Cooling employment may ease the pressure of rate hikes; If the data is significantly stronger than expected, risk assets may be suppressed again. So now, I prefer to: not chase the rally, don't panic, don't panic over a single stockUniswap is the story nobody saw coming, $UNI UNI ripped 122 percent to $5.14 on Robinhood Chain volume, an AAA rating, and whale accumulation, which is the kind of move that makes people who sold in 2023 quietly close their laptop and go for a walk. Aave is also having a moment, up 3.26 percent as V4 deposits jumped 30 percent to $806 million and total DeFi active loans hit $26.1 billion, with Aave alone commanding 48 percent of that market, basically running the lending game while everyone else fights for scraps.
Meanwhile the majors are stuck in the mud, $BTC is consolidating near $77,000 after spot ETFs saw $236.5 million in net outflows led by BlackRock's IBIT, and BNB and Mantle are both bleeding 3 to 3.5 percent on broad risk off sentiment rather than anything specific to either project. The lesson here is one every OKX trader learns eventually, when BTC goes flat and boring, that is exactly when the smart money quietly rotates into DeFi blue chips like UNI and AAVE, because sideways majors free up liquidity to chase real fundamentals, and fundamentals right now are clearly pointing at lending and DEX infrastructure, not memes.Bloodbath: Long and Short Liquidations in the Futures Market
In this situation, the futures market has become the main battlefield. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $273 million, with SOL contributing $21.44 million. This is a brutal long-short liquidation, and market sentiment is extremely fragile.
Opportunity Amid Crisis? Whales Are Quietly Accumulating
But there are subtle signals amid the decline: SOL spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive weeks, reaching $154 million last week; whale wallets increased by 52, and exchange balances decreased—whales are using the crash to accumulate.
Therefore, the recent plunge is a fierce value re-evaluation where a "macro negative" has burst the "fundamental bubble." Moving from 70 to 110 was driven by sentiment; the pullback from 110 to 100 is reality. Solana's "meme dividend" has basically ended, and going forward it must answer a soul-searching question: without speculative hype, what is your true value?
The $100 mark is not just a price point but the ultimate clash between confidence and reality.
Disclaimer: The above content is for market analysis and opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly risky; please conduct your own research and make decisions cautiously. $SOL $ETH $BTC #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 刚刚市场再次出现明显的风险释放。 $BTC 从 $79,800附近快速回落至约$76,900，$ETH 也跌破 $2,400关口，短线杠杆仓位被集中清算，市场情绪迅速转弱。 但这一次，压力并不完全来自加密市场内部。 🌍 真正的压力来自宏观环境： 🇺🇸 美伊冲突升级推动油价飙升，布伦特原油一度突破 $95/桶； 📈 美国10年期国债收益率升至约 4.82%，接近近三年高位； 💵 美元走强，市场重新提高对美联储9月加息的押注，目前相关概率已经升至约 68%，明显高于一周前的约37%。 与此同时，市场正在等待本周美国就业数据。NFP可能成为下一轮行情的重要催化剂：如果就业数据偏强，加息预期可能进一步升温；如果就业明显降温，则可能给风险资产带来喘息空间。 📊 所以现在看到的并不只是一次普通的BTC回调，而是： 油价 ↑ → 通胀担忧 ↑ → 加息预期 ↑ → 美债收益率 ↑ → 风险资产承压。 此前BTC跌破$77K时，也曾引发大规模杠杆清算，说明当前市场的高杠杆结构依然是价格快速波动的重要放大器。 因此，短线不要急着把每一次下跌都当成“抄底机会”。 先观察清算是否结束，再看资金是#日本长债收益率升至高位
Japan's 10-year government bond yield has reached 3%, and the 30-year bond yield has surpassed 4.18%, both hitting the highest levels since 1996. This is not just a matter for Japan alone; U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and long-term bond yields in the UK and Germany are also near multi-year highs. Global long-term interest rates are undergoing a systemic repricing, with Japan being the most extreme case.
For the market, the real impact is that the global cost of capital is trending upward. The yen carry trade has been one of the core supports of global liquidity over the past decade-plus—borrowing yen at zero interest to buy high-yield assets worldwide. Now, this pillar is starting to weaken.
As Japanese long-term bond yields rise and expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes increase, the attractiveness of carry trades declines, and there is growing pressure to unwind positions. Capital is withdrawing from global high-yield assets and flowing into safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, which will create systemic liquidity pressure on BTC and high-valuation tech stocks. As one of the world's largest creditor nations, Japan's rising long-term rates will directly transmit to U.S. Treasury yields, suppressing risk appetite through rate hike expectations and forcing global capital to reassess asset allocations.
The impact on BTC is twofold. In the short term, it is bearish: rising global long-term bond yields increase financing costs, and BTC, as a highly liquid risk asset, is the first to be affected. In the medium term, as Japan also begins to raise rates and debt costs rise across major global economies, the boundaries of fiat currency credit are continuously stretched, which will instead strengthen BTC's non-sovereign narrative. $BTC $ETH $SOL 🔥Burned through inventory in August to build reputation, called by the market in September to write a review on $OKB
Just checked OKB, MEXC around 106.09, down 4.58% in 24h, range between 105.6—111.7; other sources showed 109—110 in the morning session, then directly dropped to 106 in the afternoon, like just posting "Deflation King" on Moments and then secretly switching to "Risk Assessment in Progress."
106 itself is a touchstone: technical analysis sets 106.39 as short-term support, now the price is sticking close; if it holds, it's "pretending nothing's wrong," if not, time to step away.
If it breaks down further, look at the 105 integer level, then 102—103 (50-day moving average about 102.79, 50% retracement about 102.35); if this zone breaks again, the August wave of "total 21 million + X Layer" profit-taking will collectively cash out.
For a rebound, first watch 111.4 (previous Fibonacci resistance/23.6% retracement); if it can't pass, continue to play dead; only above 115 can we talk about 119—120, and only when 120 is stable will higher targets be considered.
Why the drop: it's not just OKB alone, macro factors are pressing down the entire risk asset class—10-year US Treasury around 4.79%, Brent crude about 94, BTC hovering at 77,000, September US employment/FOMC expectations leaning hawkish, OKB as a platform token has a high beta with BTC; plus, from 80+ to 130+ in August, up about 28% in 30 days, profit-taking was already waiting to run. The recent crypto market has cooled significantly, with BTC falling below $80,000 again and currently fluctuating around $77K, while ETH has fallen back to around $2.4K. But if you only focus on the candlesticks, you might overlook a more important signal: institutional funds are still searching for opportunities. ETF capital performance over the past week is still worth watching: 🟠 BTC: about +$910M 🔵, ETH: about +$790M 🟣, SOL: about +$168M 🟢, XRP: about +$126M. On August 31, BTC spot ETFs again recorded about +$217M, and ETH ETFs also saw about +$88M in inflows, indicating institutional demand hasn't completely disappeared due to short-term pullbacks. However, after entering September, capital flows began to diverge. On September 1, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $236.5M, but Solana-related products still attracted capital attention; Meanwhile, ETH ETFs have maintained net inflows for 12 consecutive trading days, although the single-day size has significantly shrunk to about $11M. 🌍 The macro environment is also becoming more complex. The escalation of the US-Iran military conflict has pushed oil prices higher, Brent crude once rose to about $95 per barrel, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.82%, reigniting market concerns over a rate hike in September. High interest rates and risk aversion may still weigh on BTC and other high-risk assets in the short term. So the current market is more like: prices are retreating, and funds are inflowingWriting 美伊军事冲突升级 这轮市场下跌的核心，并不是单纯的技术面回调，而是地缘政治风险突然升温。 🇺🇸 美国对伊朗发动新一轮军事打击，市场迅速进入 Risk-Off 模式；与此同时，伊朗方面展开导弹与无人机反击，特朗普也释放出进一步升级军事行动的强硬信号。 真正值得关注的是能源市场： 🛢️ Brent 原油一度大幅上涨，9月1日最终上涨 4.6%至94.65美元/桶；WTI上涨 5.2%至90.22美元/桶。 市场传导逻辑非常清晰： 美伊冲突升级 → 原油上涨 → 通胀预期升温 → 美债收益率走高 → 降息预期承压 → Risk-Off情绪升温 → BTC、ETH及高Beta资产承压 与此同时，杠杆多头被快速清算，进一步放大了短线下跌的幅度。BTC随后一度跌破 77,000美元，市场波动明显加剧。 所以现在最重要的不是盲目抄底，而是观察三个变量： 1️⃣ 原油能否继续站在90美元上方 2️⃣ 美债10年期收益率是否继续走高 3️⃣ BTC能否重新站回77,000–78,000美元区域 如果地缘冲突继续升级，风险资产仍可能承受压力；反之，如果油价回落、收益率稳定，BTC才有The recent days of SOL have been nerve-wracking.
In August, it showed some strength for the first time in nearly a year with a monthly candle closing positive, surging from over $70 all the way up to $110. But as soon as September arrived, a large bearish candle slammed it back down to the $100 mark. If you think this is just a "pullback after a big rise," you are seriously mistaken. This round of decline is actually a triple squeeze from a macro black swan event, internal fundamental "explosion," and leveraged liquidation.
First blow: Macro "black swan" event, specifically targeting altcoin leaders
The trigger for this crash was the full escalation of the US-Iran conflict. But what really hurt SOL badly was its original sin as a "highly elastic altcoin leader"—it has almost zero safe-haven properties.
In the face of geopolitical conflict, capital is fleeing risk assets frantically. BTC only dropped about 1%, while SOL, ETH, and XRP fell three times as much as BTC. Behind this is the tightening of macro liquidity: the probability of a Fed rate hike in September soared to 67%-70%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new high for early 2025. High-beta assets like SOL are extremely sensitive to liquidity changes, so their declines are naturally very "elastic."
$ETH $BTC $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 Why do people who made big profits in one market cycle tend to lose more easily in the next?
When I first entered the crypto space, I thought those who made big money had more experience and would only earn more in the next cycle. Later, I realized that success in the previous cycle can sometimes be more dangerous than failure.
In a bull market, everything goes up, making it easy to mistake market gains for personal skill.
After the account multiplies several times, positions get larger, stop losses get farther, and even ordinary returns feel unworthy. Having made tenfold gains last cycle, a 30% rise next cycle feels too little.
I have also experienced this kind of inflation.
After hitting the main trend in a certain cycle, I mistakenly thought I understood the market, then tried to replicate the same method in another phase. But chasing gains works in a bull market, while in a sideways market it leads to repeated losses; diversifying holdings works when altcoins rise broadly, but after liquidity shrinks, you’re left with a bunch of tokens no one wants to buy.
The hardest thing to admit is: making money depends both on skill and the cycle’s favor.
When the market environment changes, previously correct experience can become the most costly obsession.
Before each market cycle starts, you should treat yourself as someone who needs to prove themselves again: re-examine liquidity, reassess position size, and accept that "this time it might not be so easy to make money."
Remember: the real danger is not having never made big money, but after making it, writing luck into your personal skill manual.Other coins are waiting for the Federal Reserve, $HYPE is抢券商的饭碗
HYPE, with a market cap of 20.6 billion, fell 2.35% yesterday, but what it does is unrelated to whether it falls or not. Hyperliquid is moving Nasdaq onto the blockchain.
On September 1st, Silhouette's RFQ block trading inquiry system went live on the Hyperliquid mainnet, with the first batch accepting xStocks tokenized stocks. The logic is: newly tokenized stock order books are thin, and no one dares to place large orders; RFQ turns it into a market maker competitive auction, where you submit demand, multiple parties compete for orders, settlement happens on-chain, 24/7 without closing, and assets with real trading volume then "graduate" to an independent order book. Behind this are Polychain and RockawayX.
The numbers for xStocks are not small: since launching in June last year, cumulative transaction volume has exceeded 40 billion USD, with 200,000 holders and nearly 20 billion settled on-chain. Payward also plans to tokenize the top 100 companies of the London Stock Exchange.
My view: projects that can claim to "seize traditional financial business" are few in this round, and HYPE is the most practical. Its 3.3 billion open contracts are not pure speculation; someone is using it for real trading. The $82 price is hit along with the market, but it is one of the few positions I am willing to add to during a decline. 兄弟们，刚刚出炉的美国8月ADP就业数据确实有点“拉胯”！ 核心数据一览： 实际：私营部门新增就业 3.8万人 预期：约 4.7万人 前值：约 4.6万人 这是自今年1月份以来最弱的一次，明显不及预期，就业市场降温信号再次确认。 那ADP到底是啥？为啥加密圈这么关注？ ADP（俗称：小非农）是美国私营部门就业的“先行指标”，比官方非农（NFP）早两天发布。 它直接影响市场对美联储利率的预期： 数据强 → 就业过热 → 加息/高利率维持更久 → 美元强、收益率高 → 对BTC等风险资产偏空 数据弱 → 就业降温 → 降息预期升温 → 美元走弱、流动性预期改善 → 对加密市场偏多 简单说就是：弱就业 = 潜在“放水”信号，历史上经常给比特币等带来短期的情绪支撑。 今日数据对加密市场的实际影响 短期偏多情绪： 3.8万远低于预期，强化了“劳动力市场继续放缓”的叙事，有助于压低9月加息概率，提升降息或按兵不动的可能性。 这对BTC、ETH等高Beta资产“理论上”是利好。 波动仍在： 数据刚出，市场可能先出现去杠杆波动（尤其合约盘），【之后若降息预期被进一步确认，才有机会真正发力。】 关键变量Today's crypto market has already told you a very important change: the market is temporarily reluctant to give higher valuations to risk assets. BTC has risen from above $81,000 all the way back to around $77,000, ETH has dropped to around $2,400, and SOL has even dropped back to around $100. But if you only look at the crypto world, it's easy to interpret it as a normal pullback. The real core lies outside the crypto market. Now Brent crude has climbed back above $95, the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.8%, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have clearly warmed up. These three factors appearing together are far more damaging to BTC than a single bearish candle. Because in recent months, the market has traded rates → improved liquidity→ risk asset valuations expanding→ BTC rising. Now, suddenly: rising oil prices → inflation concerns→ bond yields rising → rate hike expectations heating up→ risk asset valuations being squeezed. So you'll find that it's not just BTC falling today. Stocks, bonds, and crypto assets are all starting to come under pressure. That's why I'm reluctant to simply use the term "bull market pullback" to explain the market right now. What will truly determine BTC's direction next may not be whether a certain altcoin has positive news, but whether oil prices can fall. If crude oil continues to approach $100 and US Treasury yields keep approaching 5%, then even if BTC's fundamentals remain intact, it will still be subject to valuationThe "small non-farm" data just came out, and as Kai Ge expected, it was lower than anticipated, but the market hasn't shown much short-term volatility.
The reason is that it was only slightly below expectations, 38,000 people, which is 10,000 less than expected. This isn't a particularly sharp employment slowdown, so the market won't immediately adjust rate cut expectations drastically based on this data.
Moreover, ADP itself is not the official non-farm payroll; the market pays more attention to Friday's US non-farm employment data. Tonight's ADP is more of an early reference.
The market has already priced in cooling employment; everyone already knows US employment is weakening, so after the 38,000 figure was released, there wasn't a significant "expectation gap."
In the short term, if $BTC doesn't rally noticeably, it actually indicates the market is waiting for the real non-farm data on Friday. If Friday's non-farm data is also significantly below expectations, then it will be different—rate cut expectations may further heat up, and if the dollar and US Treasury yields weaken simultaneously, BTC will be more likely to experience a sustained rally.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The London Stock Exchange is preparing to move its shares on-chain. It sounds like traditional finance has finally "surrendered" to the crypto world, but I think it's quite the opposite: it's more like old exchanges incorporating chains into their own rules. On September 1, the London Stock Exchange announced a partnership with Payward, Kraken's parent company, to study the tokenization structure of UK stocks. The plan has two levels: one is to make existing stocks 1:1 supported by xStocks; the other is bolder, aiming to integrate shares from issuance, registration, transfer, to settlement into digital infrastructure. If regulators approve, xStocks is expected to enter LSE 24 trading by 2027. Many people's first reaction is to focus on "all-day trading." Extending trading hours from six and a half hours to twenty-four hours is the most noticeable change, not the most difficult. The real tricky question is: is the on-chain thing just packaging that follows the stock price, or is it a real share with voting, dividends, company actions, and bankruptcy recourse rights? Prices can be synchronized, but rights cannot be automatically synchronized by a single "1:1 support." This is also why I think this cooperation carries weight. The London Stock Exchange repeatedly emphasizes "retaining shareholder rights," and even puts digital securities custody, asset servicing, and commercial bank fund settlement all in one chart. Its goal is not to change the skins of stocks, but to ensure that after on-chain transfers, registration, clearing, and cash legs still match. For RWAs, this is far more important than adding another public chain. Of course, announcements are still "research" and