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#FOMC Last Set of Data Before Friday's Nonfarm
The current market differences among BTC, ETH, and SOL fundamentally boil down to a battle between capital structure and narrative fulfillment.
$BTC BTC is supported by ETF institutional funds, with its monetary attributes dominating. On the macro level, close attention is paid to the real yield of U.S. Treasuries; during periods of rising #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow Funds are starting to shift seats, why is gold moving first? Gold has surged back above $4400 in the past two days, but don’t just focus on the nearly 10-ton daily increase in gold ETFs. This looks more like funds are relocating. Recently, US Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar is loosening, plus the ADP employment data was weak, and the nonfarm payroll report is coming up on Friday, causing rate cut expectations to swing again. The "nonfarm" data itself has made investors more cautious abouPrerequisite Core Foundation (Data Anchoring + Historical Patterns) 1. Yesterday's ADP small nonfarm payroll data: Actual increase was 38,000, below market expectation of 48,000, below expectations, clearly signaling cooling private employment and weakening labor market in the US. 2. Correlation pattern between large and small nonfarm payrolls: Long-term data shows ADP is highly correlated with nonfarm payroll trends, but monthly values often diverge (due to differences in statistical samples and industry weights). Combined with historical statistics: when ADP weakens, the probability of nonfarm payrolls weakening in sync is about 60%; Nonfarm payrolls buck the trend and significantly exceed expectations about 25%; Data falls within the expected range, with an overall probability of neutral volatility about 15%. 3. Tonight's nonfarm market consensus expectation: 55,000 new jobs added, this figure marks the core dividing line between bulls and bears in this market game. 4. Core Trading Logic: Nonfarm payroll data directly affects Fed rate cut expectations, driving fluctuations in the dollar and Treasury yields, ultimately passing on to BTC and being the core driver of tonight's rally. Trading scenario (probability + macro logic + BTC market script + trading risk control) Scenario 1: Nonfarm payroll < 55,000 (employment continues to weaken) | Estimated probability 60% (main probability) Core macro logic: Both large and small nonfarm payroll trends are weakening in sync, confirming continued cooling in the U.S. job market, leading to repricing expectations of an early and larger Fed rate cut, driving the dollar index and Treasury yields lower, and realizing the positive effects for risk assets. Complete BTC market scenario: 1. Data realization moment: short-term capital inertia goes long#Corporate Treasury Collective Restart of Buying, BTC Institutional Buying Surge Again
Latest Data
Strategy, Strive, and BitMine simultaneously resumed large-scale accumulation, spending over $700 million in total to buy BTC; ETF funds rapidly switch directions, sometimes large inflows, sometimes significant outflows, with intense long-short battles.
Market Consensus
Bulls believe that listed companies putting real money into the market is a strong signal that the bull market continues, and that pullbacks are opportunities to position; bears remind that most companies rely on issuing stock to finance coin purchases rather than using their own cash, so if stock prices come under pressure, subsequent accumulation could stop abruptly.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Corporate treasury accumulation will temporarily reduce circulating market supply, providing support to the market. However, this type of buying is not unlimited and highly depends on the US stock financing environment. It acts as a medium-term catalyst but cannot be directly regarded as a guarantee for a one-sided rise. The market will still be influenced by Federal Reserve policies.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally inclined to believe the bull market is gradually returning, this is only a personal opinion and not investment advice)
Institutional accumulation is a positive factor, but do not rely solely on this signal for trading; position management is still necessary, and avoid chasing highs. UNI｜Intraday Breakthrough at $6 Level: The Data Is Real, But the Price Is Not Cheap What Really Happened: After UNI closed at $5.66 on 9/1 with a +10.7% gain, it once touched $6.01–6.38 intraday on 9/2 (multi-source range, an 8-month high). Markets.com reported a close at $5.99 (+14.6%), CMC AI reported $5.85 (+9.75%), with 7-day gains ranging from +29.8% to +38.7% (differences due to sources). Futures open interest rose to $566 million (a high since November 2025), with about $3 million in shor🪫Bitcoin is facing a different kind of test today.
BTC slipped below $77K as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil higher and triggered another risk-off move across global markets.
And crypto is feeling it.
$ETH, $SOL and $XRP are under heavier pressure, showing that traders are quickly reducing exposure to higher-risk assets.
The important part is not simply that Bitcoin fell.
It is what is happening around it.
Higher oil prices can increase inflation pressure. Higher inflation expBesent's Double-Edged Sword: Between Easing and Forced Rate Hikes, Institutions Quietly Bottom-Fish
At the G20 Finance Ministers' meeting, Besent acted on two fronts: on one hand, pressuring Japan to raise rates in September, with overnight index swaps showing a 97% probability; on the other, announcing an expansion of long-term bond repos to try to lower credit costs. Easing with the left hand, tightening with the right—policy directions contradict each other.
But easing faces triple resistance: the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 4.75%, hitting a 19-month high; at Jackson Hole, Wash clearly signaled hawkishness; oil prices rebounded to $92; and a peak in long-term bond supply is approaching. Credit loosening will only worsen inflation, forcing a prolonged high-rate cycle. Japan's rate hike will trigger carry trade unwinding, causing a sharp drop in global liquidity, with risk assets hit first.
Yet institutions are increasing positions against the trend. Strategy ended its wait-and-see stance, buying 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, bringing total holdings to 845,000 BTC; BitMine has increased ETH holdings for 65 consecutive weeks, totaling 5.9 million ETH, with staked annualized yields of $335 million covering interest. They are betting on the long-term collapse of fiat credit; the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has reached a historic high of 0.82.
Strategically, there is no short-term macro solution; opportunities come after panic. With the rate hike landing on September 18, if BTC dips below 75,000, phased entry is possible. But institutions' average cost is about 75,000 with cash flow as a backstop—your bullets are limited, so don't treat strategic allocation as a reason to go all-in.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解 $ETH Last night, the non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, boosting risk assets. ETH once surged to 2419, then retreated after approaching the 2420 resistance level, indicating obvious selling pressure in that area.
Currently, the market is still mainly consolidating with a 4-hour chart forming a converging triangle, with volatility continuing to narrow.#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow Middle East conflict fully spills over! Iranian missiles directly strike US military base in Kuwait, a new global market storm has begun
This time, the Middle East situation is no longer limited to localized skirmishes; the war has officially spread outward comprehensively.
Breaking news: Iran directly deployed ballistic missiles and drone swarms to precisely strike the US military base in Kuwait.
Kuwait's air defense system was fully activated for interception, with thick smoke rising on site and multiple facilities catching fire.
The market must understand a harsh reality:
The US-Iran conflict has completely stepped out of Iranian territory and the Strait of Hormuz.
The entire Gulf region and surrounding US military bases are now within the range of actual combat strikes. The situation has escalated from "localized confrontation" to full-scale geopolitical competition.
1. Why is this attack more deadly than any before?
Previously, the market held onto hope:
The conflict was just minor skirmishes, would not escalate, would not affect energy, and would not disrupt global supply.
But this round is completely different:
Iran has proactively expanded its strike radius, directly attacking US assets inside a third country.
This means:
✅ The battlefield is no longer limited
✅ The level of confrontation has escalated again
✅ The retaliation chain is infinitely extended
✅ All energy facilities, ports, and shipping in the Gulf are now on the risk list
What the market fears most now is not this wave of attacks already launched,
but the subsequent chain reaction and spread.
Once the war touches oil production areas, storage and transportation facilities, or maritime routes—
crude oil risk premiums will instantly surge, and oil prices will violently rebound.
2. Complete macro transmission chain: When oil prices rise, all global assets come under pressure
Many people don’t understand geopolitical markets; I’ll explain the underlying logic:
Middle East escalation → crude oil surge → inflation expectations rebound → rate cut expectations further delayed → US Treasury yields stuck high → high Beta assets collectively pressured
This is the hardest macro theme right now.
The stronger crude oil is:
• The less the Federal Reserve dares to ease
• The longer high interest rates persist
• The harder it is for tech and crypto markets to sustain a rebound
In other words:
As long as the Middle East fire doesn’t extinguish, the crypto space and high-volatility assets will struggle to mount a real rally.
The current weak market, repeated spikes, and feeble rebounds are not technical issues but macro suppression.
3. The most straightforward impact on the crypto market
1. Risk appetite contracts across the board
Geopolitical uncertainty maxes out, capital actively seeks safety, and high-volatility assets are the first to be drained.
2. All rebounds are defined as corrections, not reversals
All gains are oversold bounces, making it difficult to form trend rallies.
3. Volatility, shakeouts, spikes, and two-way squeezes become the norm
Black swans can drop anytime; news dominates over technicals.
4. Bulls must be extremely cautious, and bears should avoid heavy positions
The situation can trigger short-term risk-off rallies anytime; this is a typical chaotic market, unsuitable for heavy speculative bets.
4. The most critical trading truth now
Markets always obey the bigger trend.
Technicals can recover, indicators can diverge, supports can hold,
but macro risks and geopolitical black swans do not follow any technical rules.
The biggest risk in the market now is not a drop,
but the continuous amplification of uncertainty.
All traders remember this:
Geopolitical spread continues, easing expectations won’t come, and a major bull market won’t arrive.
In the short term, only trade small rhythms and planned swings,
Don’t reduce leverage or go fully to cash to bet on direction; that is the best risk control.
Conclusion
The fire in the Middle East has truly spread across the entire Gulf.
This is not a short-term hotspot but the start of a new round of global macro repricing.
Oil prices, inflation, interest rates, and risk assets all need to be repriced.
Patience, light positions, and respect for the market
are the only ways to survive going forward. The financial market has just witnessed a rather interesting contrast. On one side is $AVGO, the business at the center of the chip and AI infrastructure story, announced third-quarter results that exceeded expectations but came under pressure after making a slightly lower fourth-quarter revenue forecast than the market forecast. On the other side, $SNOW rose sharply after the positive business report, with second-quarter revenue reaching about $1.55 billion, up 35% year-on-year; product revenue increased by 37% and the full-year outlook was raised. Two reactions XRP has been heavily criticized these past two days.
It has dropped all the way down from previous highs and is now hovering around $1.34, down nearly 8% over the past week.
But my view today might be different from many others:
At this level, I’m actually starting to get interested in XRP.
Not because I think it will definitely rise today.
But because there is a clear contradiction in the market right now—
The price is taking a hit, but the ETF money isn’t fleeing.
In fact, the XRP ETF saw a noticeable increase in capital flow in August, and even when the BTC ETF experienced large net outflows in early September, the XRP ETF still had net inflows.
So I don’t really care if it goes up 2% or down 2% today.
What I really want to bet on is:
Whether the market has priced in too much pessimism for XRP.
Of course, $1.34 is not a rock-bottom price.
I wouldn’t even be surprised if it falls below $1.30.
But if I had to choose between two options now:
Chasing a coin that suddenly spikes today, or positioning in an XRP that’s being criticized by the market but hasn’t seen obvious capital withdrawal?
I choose the latter.
And I’ll say this here:
As long as ETF funds don’t show a clear reversal, I’m not bearish on XRP for now.
I’d rather study it when no one is interested than rush in shouting bull market after it jumps by double digits one day.
$XRP $BTC $ETH #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 Bitcoin dominance basically measures how much of the entire crypto market's capitalization is held by $BTC.
At the start of a bull market, dominance usually rises because big money hedges by buying Bitcoin first, while altcoins remain untouched.
When dominance hits a high and starts to plateau or even decline, while $ETH and major public chains clearly outperform Bitcoin, that's when the altcoin season's fuse is lit.
The trigger conditions are quite strict: first, Bitcoin must stabilize and not crash, dragging the whole market down; second, the market needs a new narrative, like last year's AI or inscription stories, giving funds a reason to diversify; third, stablecoin inflows must keep increasing, indicating fresh capital entering to buy.
The signals are actually easy to watch: if the weekly dominance breaks below key moving averages and altcoin trading volume suddenly spikes, that's basically a precursor.
But don't get too excited too soon. This cycle is different from before—there are more institutions, and capital only recognizes a few top projects, making broad altcoin rallies increasingly difficult.
So even if the signal comes, you have to pick projects with solid fundamentals or strong backing; don't just buy blindly.
Remember, a drop in dominance is only a necessary condition, not sufficient. Be patient and wait for confirmation before acting; don't jump the gun. Nonfarm Payroll Outlook: Employment Cooling Meets Inflation Rebound, Market Awaits Fed Signal This Friday, U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Data will be released, and the market is facing a dual test of a cooling labor market and a rebound in inflation. This data will serve as a key reference ahead of the Fed's September policy meeting, directly affecting rate cut expectations and risk asset pricing. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the August Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The market expects new jobs to continue slowing from previous figures, but recent signs of a rebound in inflation data put the Fed in a dilemma. If employment data falls short of expectations, it may strengthen market bets on a rate-cutting cycle, but if wage growth or unemployment data point to sticky inflation, it could dampen rate cut expectations. Currently, CME FedWatch shows about a 65% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but the recent CPI rebound has caused some traders to reprice. This nonfarm payroll data will directly affect short-term U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar index (though not directly analyzed, but background should be mentioned), and risk appetite for risk assets. For the crypto market, liquidity expectations are a key transmission path; For US stocks, tech stocks are highly sensitive to interest rates; For gold, changes in real interest rate expectations will dominate price volatility. Market Impact: Indirect Benefit: Crypto Market - BTC (Bitcoin): If nonfarm data is weaker than expected, it will strengthen rate cut expectations, and loose liquidity expectations will benefit risk assets like Bitcoin; If data is stronger than expected, cooling rate cut expectations will put pressure. - ETH (Ethereum): Similar to Bitcoin, ETH is affected by macro liquidity expectations#Saudi crude oil exports fall to a 9-year low, oil prices soar
What really makes me cautious in this round between the US and Iran is not the Strait of Hormuz, but the multiple disruptions emerging in the energy supply chain.
After the US military airstrike on Iran again on September 1, Brent crude oil $BZ quickly rebounded, Saudi exports dropped to multi-year lows, the Red Sea was attacked by Houthis, and the Russian diesel export ban was extended. In other words, it is no longer a single event, but simultaneous pressure on the energy side from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. If oil prices continue to surge, the most direct impact will be inflation expectations rising again → rate cut expectations cooling down → risk assets under pressure. This trading logic has already appeared in the market, and once the news broke, $BTC briefly fell below $77,000.
In the short term, don’t rush to be bullish on BTC and $ETH.
BTC still faces strong resistance above 80,000, and is more likely to oscillate weakly, focusing on 75,000 or even 73,000. ETH is relatively weaker; if it can’t hold near 2,450, I believe there is a possibility of further downward support search.
Of course, escalation of war does not necessarily mean BTC will crash. What really determines the market is oil prices, the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
So I remain cautious now, not chasing longs, watching resistance on rebounds, preferring to earn less rather than holding firm during times of amplified macro risks.
The above only represents my personal trading views and does not constitute investment advice!The SEC has just moved to update a set of rules that haven't been significantly changed in nearly 40 years.
Do you think tokenized securities are about to be fully deregulated?
On the contrary, Wall Street is starting to accept blockchain, but it’s not ready to give up control.
Apple follows a similar approach.
A few key points:
Blockchain can enter the scene, but it must do so with shackles on. What does that mean?
Transfer agents can use on-chain ledgers to record equity and handle transfers.
But risk control, asset protection, registration, and reporting—none of these can be skipped.
On-chain records do not equal legal ownership. If you hold a stock token in your wallet,
that doesn’t automatically grant you all the legal rights of the corresponding stock.
The final authority still rests with regulated financial institutions.
This is the most critical point.
Technology can be decentralized, but responsibility cannot.
Every on-chain record must be reproducible, traceable, and verifiable.
If something goes wrong, someone must be held accountable, and the efficiency requirements are even higher.
Don’t think that just because it’s on-chain, it can be handled slowly.
Clearing, settlement, and transaction processing standards are actually stricter.
So you’ll notice an interesting shift: in the past, the crypto industry wanted to disrupt Wall Street.
Now, Wall Street is proactively adopting blockchain and transforming it into its own infrastructure.
Blockchain speeds things up, on-chain ledgers handle bookkeeping, smart contracts automate processes,
but ownership, compliance, and regulatory authority remain firmly in the hands of traditional finance.
The true endgame of tokenized securities: Wall Street turns blockchain into its new tool.On August 31, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $216.7 million, with IBIT contributing $205.9 million; ETH continued its strong momentum, recording a net inflow for the 11th consecutive trading day, amounting to $87.7 million on that day. SOL attracted about $153 million that week, marking the best single-week performance since the product's launch.📊
All three asset types simultaneously attracted capital, resembling active portfolio rebalancing by institutions rather than panic selling. If it were a full-scale withdrawal, it would be hard to explain why ETH and SOL inflows remain so steady. Capital has not left the crypto market; it is just seeking more cost-effective positions.
Current data leans more towards "rotation" rather than "risk aversion." BTC remains the main battlefield, but some funds are tentatively diversifying into ETH and SOL. This structural change often signals that market participants' risk tolerance for the future is rising, rather than a collapse in risk appetite.
It is important to note that ETF flows only reflect part of the demand from traditional channels; on-chain activity and derivatives market signals are equally critical. If capital rotation lacks spot buying support, its sustainability still needs verification. Market sentiment is volatile, and short-term data may not represent long-term trends. Please carefully assess your own risk tolerance.#FOMC Last Set of Data Before Friday's Nonfarm
The current market differences among BTC, ETH, and SOL fundamentally boil down to a battle between capital structure and narrative fulfillment.
$BTC BTC is supported by ETF institutional funds, with its monetary attributes dominating. On the macro level, close attention is paid to the real yield of U.S. Treasuries; during periods of rising interest rates, capital tends to prioritize BTC as a safe haven within the crypto market. Long-term holders on-chain hold their chips firmly, with less large-scale liquidation pressure. However, at this stage, there is a lack of new incremental stories; the halving benefits have been fully priced in, resulting mostly in range-bound oscillations. A major breakout requires a substantial shift in macro liquidity.
$ETH ETH faces the awkward situation of having many narratives but limited fulfillment. Staking yields, Layer 2 scaling, and restaking provide ample conceptual reserves, yet the total locked value in DeFi has not significantly increased, indicating insufficient real on-chain demand. ETH-ETF fund inflows fluctuate greatly, and institutional allocation willingness is much weaker than BTC. Its beta is higher than Bitcoin’s; it performs decently during market rebounds but tends to underperform BTC when the market weakens, making it a "middle ground" asset that neither rises nor falls decisively.
$SOL SOL is purely an amplifier of risk appetite. It has almost no traditional large institutional spot support and is mainly driven by retail investors, quant funds, and the Meme ecosystem. On-chain transaction activity is very high, but value capture ability is weak, with ongoing token unlock selling pressure. When market sentiment is hot, it has explosive power; once risk appetite declines, concentrated leveraged liquidations can cause rapid and deep drops, accompanied by high regulatory uncertainty.
The three present a clear gradient: BTC for safe haven, ETH for trend speculation, and SOL for sentiment speculation. Future market trends will still be dominated by U.S. Treasury yields and market leverage levels.
This analysis involves many market variables. The work task mode can assist in risk point sorting and structured comparison. Should we continue using it?The most interesting part of today’s market is not that $XRP is pulling back. It is that institutional demand has remained strong while price has weakened. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have now recorded 11 consecutive trading sessions of net inflows, adding roughly $170M during the streak. On September 1 alone, they attracted $14.38M. Yet XRP is trading around $1.33, below its late August peak near $1.45. That divergence matters. Normally, persistent institutional buying and weakening price would suggest Brothers, today I actually think the focus is not on how much the market has risen, but that the September rate hike expectations have suddenly risen again.
Currently, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16 has returned to around 62%—70%, whereas a week ago it was less than 40%. The change is indeed very fast. Rising oil prices, increasing inflation concerns, and more hawkish comments from Waller are all pushing up rate hike expectations.
But we still can't directly say "September hike is certain." August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, showing a clear cooling in employment; Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the key. If employment continues to weaken, rate hike expectations may cool down again; if employment holds up and oil prices remain high, then the Fed will face greater pressure.
So the logic for the stock and crypto markets now is simple: Oil prices ↑ → Inflation concerns ↑ → US Treasury yields ↑ → Rate cut expectations ↓ → Risk assets under pressure.
$BTC has returned to around 77,500, $ETH to around 2,400. I don't currently think funds have completely fled; it seems more like waiting for the nonfarm payrolls and the September FOMC to confirm the direction.
BTC looks at 77,000, ETH at 2,380. Holding these levels means consolidation and recovery; a real break below would require guarding against a deeper correction. At this position, patience is more important than chasing orders.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Breaking! Trump to announce the end of the Iran war? Oil prices instantly plunge, but the crypto market falls first out of respect!
Just now, WTI crude oil dropped 1% intraday, currently at $88.23 per barrel. The trigger was a US media report revealing Trump is privately discussing with senior aides the possibility of announcing the end of the Iran war.
Honestly, many people misunderstand the impact of this on the crypto market. They think the end of the war is positive, risk appetite will rise, and funds should rush into crypto. But I tell you, the short-term is actually the opposite: falling oil prices mean cooling inflation expectations, US Treasury yields may follow down, but this crypto market rally has been supported by geopolitical risk sentiment. Once that expectation disappears, leveraged longs will be the first to be liquidated. In the past 24 hours, $370 million has already been liquidated, and Bitcoin was once pushed down near 77,200.
Short-term, be prepared for a pullback, don’t rush to jump in. But in the mid-term, if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices stabilize, the Fed’s policy space could open up, which would be the real takeoff window for Bitcoin.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $BTC $CL $BZ #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
If the nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly again on Friday, will the Fed still dare to raise rates in September?
The current U.S. economy is actually a bit conflicted.
The employment side has clearly cooled down; ADP added only 38,000 in August, the lowest since January this year, far below expectations. The latest Beige Book also shows that overall employment only increased slightly, with weak hiring intentions.
But the trouble lies in inflation. The core PCE year-on-year in July was still 3.3%, unchanged for two consecutive months, and still significantly far from the 2% target. Meanwhile, cost pressures from energy and tariffs are starting to rise again.
So I think the real importance of Friday's nonfarm payrolls is not just how many jobs were added, but whether the cooling in employment is fast enough to outweigh inflation risks.
Currently, the market pricing for a September rate hike has risen above 60%, even once approaching 70%.
My judgment is:
If nonfarm payrolls are below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises above 4.2%, the rate hike expectations will likely cool rapidly, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will come under pressure, and growth stocks, especially the AI sector, may instead see a wave of recovery.
But if nonfarm payrolls rise back above 100,000 and wage growth remains strong, then trouble arises. The market may continue to trade for higher interest rates, and U.S. stock valuations will face significant pressure.
I lean more toward the former scenario: employment is already weak enough to not be ignored, but inflation is not low enough for the Fed to easily turn dovish. September 16 is more likely to be a very tangled policy choice rather than a simple rate hike or cut trade.
DYOR From cutting losses and exiting in January, to precisely bottom-fishing in April and continuously adding positions on pullbacks, ultimately locking in a 1036% return with 5x leverage (nearly $400,000 unrealized profit) — the trading strategy of address 0xbf34 on LIT demonstrates an extremely hardcore professional trader's discipline. This is by no means gambler's luck maxed out, but a typical right-side swing trade of “decisive stop-loss + patient wait for exhaustion + pyramid adding after trend confirmation.”
Decisive stop-loss and patient bottom-fishing: never stubbornly hold losing positions, only act at critical points. Most retail investors lose because they “can't hold profits and stubbornly hold losses.” This address showed strong risk control discipline in trial and error on January 31:
Cut losses quickly: On January 31, attempted a long position but quickly closed it after noticing momentum was off, stopping loss at $17,900. This step directly helped avoid the following nearly two-month prolonged downtrend where LIT dropped to $0.78 bottom.
Wait for liquidity exhaustion: Until March 31, when LIT touched the $0.78 bottom stage, the trader did not blindly guess the bottom; instead, entered on April 1 when price rebounded to $0.858 (only 10% above bottom). This shows waiting for the bears to fully release selling pressure and a clear stop-down signal before betting.
True pyramid adding: Maximizing “adding on unrealized profits,” many traders like “reverse pyramid adding” (buy a little at bottom, then chase heavily as price rises), causing average price to beBrothers, last night the US tech stocks were on fire again, Broadcom's earnings exceeded expectations, Snowflake directly raised its full-year guidance, and the AI bubble is getting bigger and bigger. On the surface, this seems like a matter of chips and cloud data, unrelated to the crypto world, but if you think carefully: these earnings reports show that companies are still pouring money into AI, risk appetite is rising, and funds are willing to pay for high valuations. This sentiment does transmit to the crypto world, after all, Bitcoin is increasingly linked with tech stocks. But to be honest, the crypto world’s real lifeline is still CPI and the Federal Reserve; earnings reports are at most appetizers, the real main course is inflation data. Let's first talk about the impact of CPI on the crypto world. The recent CPI data has shown an overall downward trend, but it is still far from the Fed's 2% target. For crypto, as long as CPI data does not rebound beyond expectations, it's good news. Moderately declining inflation means that rate cut expectations can be maintained, the story of loose liquidity can still be told, and risk assets including Bitcoin have support. But if one day CPI suddenly rises, the picture won't look good; panic over rate hikes will come, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum will get hammered. So now the market is becoming more sensitive to CPI data, and volatility noticeably tightens before each release, as everyone is betting on the direction. So can the optimistic sentiment of this earnings season transmit to the crypto world? There will be some short-term emotional resonance, but don't expect too much. No matter how strong the AI narrative in the US stock market is, it still depends on the Fed’s stance, and the Fed only looks at two data points: inflation and employment. So the funds in the crypto world really care about CPI and non-farm payrolls; earnings reports just help the market warm up.🔥$BTC September Macro Calendar: Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, and FOMC—Three Key Tests, Focus on the "Expectation Gap"
When trading BTC in September, don’t just draw the 77k horizontal line; the real direction depends on the expectation gaps of three events. First, the September 4/5 Nonfarm Payrolls: August ADP private sector added only 38,000 jobs, relatively weak for the year. If Nonfarm Payrolls are weak again, it should suppress rate hike expectations; however, with oil prices back above 90, the market fears stagflation from "weak employment + sticky inflation." Weak data may not boost the market, while strong data is more likely to push the 10-year US Treasury yield (currently about 4.8%—4.81%) even higher. Second, the September 11 CPI: Brent and WTI crude oil are relatively strong due to US-Iran/Hormuz tensions. If the energy component pushes core CPI higher, even if the overall year-over-year is moderate, the Fed’s hawkish stance will be firmer; conversely, if core services cool down, the 79k—80k resistance will be easier to break. Third, the September 15–16 FOMC: The market prices in about a 62%—66% chance of a rate hike in September. The key is not "whether to hike," but the statement and dot plot—hiking but then pausing could lead to a rebound after the bad news is priced in; no hike but a still hawkish dot plot will limit the rebound. Combine this with ETF weekly flows and TMM: if Nonfarm Payrolls are weak + CPI is weak + ETF inflows continue, 77k could grind up to 79k; if data is strong + ETF net outflows continue, 76.5k will be tested and breaking 75k won’t be easily supported. With low implied volatility, don’t use leverage to bet on single-day moves. BTC is currently profiting from "data surprising expectations," not from sideways consolidation gains.
$BTC #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注
On September 2, SPDR Gold Trust increased its holdings by 9.98 tons in a single day, pushing its total holdings back above 1056 tons. Spot gold simultaneously pulled back to $4387, approaching the 4400 level.
To be honest, this level of accumulation at a high gold price environment indicates it's not retail investors itching to buy, but institutions seriously allocating. The underlying logic remains unchanged—US Treasury term premium rising, ongoing de-dollarization, central banks continuing gold purchases; gold’s role as a "sovereign credit hedge" is becoming increasingly clear.
But I want to say something different.
This round is not a blind bull market.
The options market has already signaled this—the implied volatility is rising but nowhere near the crazy levels seen in Q1. Traders are mostly using bull spreads and exotic options to reduce cost for longs, indicating money is flowing in, but no one dares to go all in.
What does this mean? Gold’s volatility will become a "mechanical amplifier"—when prices rise, dealers hedge buy orders to fuel the rally; when prices fall, they unwind hedges causing mechanical selling pressure. The volatility will be more irrational than you expect.
My judgment is simple:
The long-term logic is sound; 4400 is very likely not the top, and the core position can be held. But in the short term, don’t chase spreads. Whether the September FOMC rate cut expectation materializes is the real switch going forward. Calling a "bottom confirmation" just because of a single-day ETF inflow is risky.
In terms of strategy, use the gold $XAU ETF as a core allocation, not as a thematic stock to speculate on. If you want to trade options, bull spreads are much more cost-effective than buying naked calls—when implied volatility retreats, naked calls die first. BTC and ETH, two completely different market personalities
$BTC is like a steady middle-aged person; despite the whirlwind of external news and market fluctuations, its foundation remains solid. It withstands heavy sell-offs without collapsing and rises without impulsive surges, moving at a steady, measured pace.
$ETH is more like an emotionally expressive young person, extremely sensitive to external news. When the US stock AI sector moves, it immediately follows the excitement. Positive news makes it aim for a rally, while negative news triggers a swift and decisive pullback, showing full elasticity.
Currently, earnings reports are injecting confidence into tech stocks. If the US stock market maintains strength overnight, market risk appetite will rise, giving ETH extra upward momentum. Conversely, if US stocks open high but close low, ETH, with its high volatility, will be the first to face pressure and pull back.
News is only a short-term catalyst; the real determinants of the big picture are US Treasury yields and non-farm payroll data. In short-term trading, don't let fragmented news disrupt your rhythm—identify the main trend before making a move. #日本长债收益率升至高位
Don't just focus on the 10-year yield; the "scissor spread" between the 2-year and 10-year yields is the key.
Bro, the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting a new high since November 2023 is like a sword hanging over US stocks and crypto assets.
Simply put, the logic is straightforward: this yield is the anchor for global asset pricing. When it rises, borrowing costs increase, putting pressure on tech stocks and high-risk speculative assets like Bitcoin that rely on future growth expectations. Capital will flow out of risk assets and back into risk-free interest. US stocks, especially the Nasdaq and crypto sectors, get hammered directly.
But is it more reasonable to just watch the 10-year yield? I think looking at it alone isn't enough; you have to consider the scissor spread (yield spread) between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries.
This is the key. An inverted spread (2-year yield higher than 10-year) has long been a classic recession warning signal for the US economy. If only the 10-year yield rises but the 2-year yield rises even more, deepening the inversion, it means the market isn't trading on strong economic growth but on expectations that the Fed will tighten more aggressively. This is the real bombshell for all risk assets. The current situation looks more like the entire market is repricing interest rate expectations, not just watching a single number.
So, don't just look at one point; watch the "distance" between these two lines. $BTC Let's take a look at the four altcoins I'm shorting and show my current real positions.
The $ZORA short is still open, 10x leverage, entry at 0.010419, current price 0.007783, floating profit +252%, holding on to see.
$BICO short, 10x leverage, entry at 0.0253, current price 0.02123, floating profit +160%, logic verified, altcoins only get weaker when the market pulls back.
$EGLD took a loss on this one, entry at 4.488, 20x leverage, current price 5.295, floating loss -359%. A coin that has been steadily declining since launch, suddenly it pumped dozens of points during market instability. I just want to see how far it can pretend. Contract positions are 39 million, long-short ratio 6 to 4, so many chasing longs, they will have to pay eventually.
Also in ARB, entry at 0.11373, 20x leverage, current price 0.13113, floating loss -305%. It pumped riding the OpenSea news, but on-chain data shows 99% wash trading, with a token unlock on September 16. The pump is just giving you a chance to exit.
Currently holding these four shorts, ZORA and BICO are running profits, EGLD and ARB are holding losses. My logic hasn't changed — no trend in the market, altcoins are high-risk shorts, the harder they pump, the harder they crash. Today I reviewed the market again, and I think the opportunities in September might be completely different from those in August. In August, $BTC rose nearly 25%, with spot ETFs seeing a net inflow of about $3.52 billion in a single month, clearly concentrating funds in Bitcoin. But after the start of September, BTC returned to above $77,000, and the market began to show a change: if funds are no longer willing to continue chasing BTC, where will they go next? Currently, I am focusing on four lines. The first is trading infrastructure: HYPE, BNB. The biggest advantage of these assets is that the more active the market, the higher the trading demand, and the protocol itself is more likely to generate revenue. They do not rely solely on "crypto narratives" but benefit from trading activity. The second is DeFi: AAVE, UNI, LINK. I actually think this line is worth long-term observation. Because if stablecoins, on-chain lending, and RWA continue to expand in the future, DeFi does not need BTC to hit new highs to grow. What really matters is whether on-chain funds return. The third is high-performance public chains: SOL, SUI, APT. Especially APT, which showed a relatively obvious technical breakthrough today, indicating that some funds have begun to seek relatively independent trading opportunities. But never chase these coins just because they rise. Whether the breakthrough can hold is more important than the breakthrough itself. The fourth is financial assets on-chain: XRP, ONDO, LINK. I think this line might be worth continuous tracking in September and even throughout the second half of the year $CORE No wonder it keeps falling, turns out the total supply isn't fixed?
Validators are over-extracting rewards, so whether the total supply is 2.1 billion now can only be a big question mark❓
But this reminds me of the $ZEC inflation bug in June, which directly caused ZEC to drop from $600 to $200, a very brutal crash. And what happened? ZEC actually hit a new high not long ago and is still at a high level.
Looking back, the ZEC whales precisely used the negative news to conduct a deep shakeout, which was key to the new high.
Looking back at CORE, there are way too many retail investors trapped in this coin, and they keep averaging down. There are many posts on the planet praising CORE. Without a deep shakeout, a big pump is unlikely.
The reason whales pump is always one: retail investors have no coins left. Whether $CORE whales are creating negative news to shake out is still to be observed.
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payroll
#Earnings Watcher: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
#Saudi crude oil exports fall to 9-year low, oil prices soar The crypto market is showing signs of pressure in September. BTC is still around $77K, while market sentiment remains cautious. Derivatives volume and DEX activity have also cooled recently. (MarketWatch) But one number is worth watching: Total stablecoin market cap remains close to $304B. It has still grown about 1.3% over the past 30 days, with USDT accounting for around 60%. (DeFiLlama) What does this mean? Prices are cooling, but on-chain “dollar liquidity” has not left at the same pace. EveFunds are starting to shift seats, why is gold moving first?
Gold has surged back above $4400 in the past two days, but don’t just focus on the nearly 10-ton daily increase in gold ETFs.
This looks more like funds are relocating.
Recently, US Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar is loosening, plus the ADP employment data was weak, and the nonfarm payroll report is coming up on Friday, causing rate cut expectations to swing again.
The "nonfarm" data itself has made investors more cautious about risk assets. Previously, everyone was willing to chase risk, but now seeing US Treasury yields, employment, and policy expectations all conflicting, funds naturally start to allocate more to gold.
So this round of gold’s rise shouldn’t be simply understood as "someone buying gold."
It’s more like risk capital is rearranging its positions.
Moreover, if options hedging continues to keep pace, the gold rally could be further amplified.
The real test coming up is the nonfarm payrolls.
If the data is weak, gold may continue to benefit from expectations; if the data is too strong, US Treasury yields will rise, and gold will have to cool off first.
Whether this wave is risk aversion or a new trend will be revealed on Friday.
$XAU $XAUT
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #财报观察员: Broadcom's performance exceeds expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
On the same day after market close, two AI earnings reports showed mixed results:
▪️ Broadcom revenue 29.6 billion (+86%), AI semiconductor 16.7 billion (+221%), Q4 guidance slightly lower → after-hours dropped as much as -6%
▪️ Snowflake product revenue +37%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, EPS beat expectations by 38%, CoCo accounts 9100 → after-hours +21%
The disagreement is not about AI strength; both proved strong. Broadcom was hit because growth wasn't fast enough—only 1.2% above expectations, while the market wants surprises; Snowflake surged because expectations were crushed—previously no one believed software could capture AI revenue.
TC perspective: This reflects sentiment temperature, not pricing signals. The real beneficiaries are the miners turned AI landlords; BTC money flow is not controlled by Broadcom.
AI money flows from chips to software, who’s next?$BASED Most people view $BASED incorrectly. They compare this app's trading volume to Phantom and MetaMask, see a $16 million token stuck at floor price after a long 150-day accumulation, and say it's dead. This is front-end analysis. Tokens are a different kind of trade. Phantom, MetaMask, and Rabby don't have a thin Bybit token to reprice Hyperliquid's consumer layer. Trust Wallet has TWT — but TWT is Binance wallet coin, not a pure HL native stake. Based is one of the few low market cap tokens truly situated on Hyperliquid's order flow, cards, perpetual contracts, stocks, and proxies. About 100 million of the total 235 million circulating are staked. The circulating float ratio chart looks tighter. On Bybit, this setup doesn't wait for perfect fundamentals. Trash listings can print 20–50x purely on narrative and liquidity. This is not trash. This is a real product, routing over $45 billion in trading volume, backed by Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid is the venue. Based is the leveraged chip on the interface. If the market starts pricing in “HL entering onshore / clear week / US perpetual contracts,” it won't carefully allocate to the best wallets based on 30-day volume. It will buy the lowest liquidity token tied to that tech stack. Volume leaders don't always own tokens. Tokens own stories.#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注
Top global gold ETFs have increased holdings by nearly 10 tons again, with clear signs that institutions are buying on dips. At the same time, implied volatility of gold options has risen in tandem, intensifying the market's long-short battles. This signal will also indirectly transmit to the crypto market.
Continuous ETF accumulation represents traditional institutions' recognition of gold's value as a safe-haven asset. With geopolitical tensions combined with the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls and FOMC meetings, funds are flowing into precious metals early to hedge against macro uncertainties. However, rising options volatility is not simply a bullish signal; it only indicates that the market expects significantly amplified two-way volatility ahead, with both sharp rises and falls possible.
Personal view: accumulation is a medium-term positive, but the surge in volatility calls for caution regarding short-term pullback risks. Don't blindly chase longs just because ETFs are adding positions. Historically, when volatility reaches high levels, it often means sentiment has hit a phase peak and profit-taking can occur at any time.
The recent renewed strength in the correlation between gold and BTC means that gold's strength can provide emotional support to the crypto space; once gold experiences a rapid pullback, BTC is also likely to be dragged down.
From a practical standpoint, do not take gold ETF inflows as a direct basis for going long BTC. With the heavy Nonfarm Payrolls data approaching and significant macro uncertainties, contracts must reduce leverage. Spot positions can retain base holdings but avoid chasing highs; wait for data release and then follow market signals.
Follow-up tracking: Nonfarm employment data, US Treasury yields, changes in gold options positions. $XAU The most uncanny thing in the market is that wrong perceptions can actually push the market to become real.
Soros calls this reflexivity. Simply put, when prices rise, everyone thinks they will keep rising, so they rush in to buy, and prices rise even more.
Biases may initially be baseless, like a big shot casually boasting or a technical indicator painting a rosy picture.
But as long as enough people believe it, the buying pressure fulfills the expectation, and the trend ends up proving those biases right.
At this point, rational people start doubting themselves, wondering if they were wrong, so they jump in too, and the bubble gets propped up.
The most typical case is in the late bull market, when valuations have long detached from fundamentals, but social media is full of get-rich-quick stories, and greed suppresses all doubts.
Until the last batch of buyers runs out of money and prices can no longer be pushed up, reflexivity then reverses and heads downward.
The same applies during declines: panic causes prices to fall, which creates more panic, leading to deeper selling.
To avoid being harvested by reflexivity, you have to ask yourself at the peak of consensus frenzy: Is this logic truly valid, or does it only seem valid because prices have already risen?
Making money in a bubble isn’t hard; the hard part is leaving with profits before the bubble bursts. Never fall in love with the trend. BTC has pulled back from its highs, and the gold correlation is also starting to be tested.
When prices rise, it's easy for everyone to put the two into the same narrative: inflation, fiscal policy, monetary credit, safe-haven funds. But once prices fall, the differences emerge. Gold buying is often slower; central banks and ETFs can tolerate volatility; BTC's leverage and short-term funds are more sensitive, and when sentiment shifts, the reaction is faster.
So I’m reluctant to simply call BTC "a more elastic gold." It has that potential, but it doesn’t yet have gold’s cross-cycle holding patience.
What we really need to watch next is who is still buying during the pullback. Correlation can create a narrative, but sustained buying proves the nature of the capital.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 Everyone has been watching whether $BTC can recover $80,000 these past two days, but I think the real factor deciding the next phase of the altcoin market may not be BTC. It's ETH. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $77,000, ETH is about $2,400, the total crypto market capitalization is about $2.71 trillion, and BTC's market share remains around 57%. Here's the problem: BTC hasn't given altcoins enough space yet. As soon as BTC falls, altcoins immediately follow; When BTC moves sideways, the money doesn't know where to go. ETH plays a different role. It's the most important bridge between the altcoin market and BTC. Many truly sustained altcoin rallies in history follow a process: BTC rises first→ BTC starts to move sideways→ ETH/BTC starts to strengthen, → ETH absorbs capital→ large-cap altcoins start to spread, → small and mid-cap markets truly get started. So I'm not in a hurry to call it the "altcoin season" now. I'm more interested in seeing if ETH can complete two actions: first, regain its position in the $2,400-$2,500 range. Second, ETH starts to continue strengthening relative to BTC. If these two conditions occur, mainstream altcoins like SOL, XRP, BNB, LINK, AAVE, UNI might truly welcome a second round of funding. Conversely, if ETH stays above $2,40,$BTC has bounced back toward $79K after briefly trading below $77K. The easy interpretation is that buyers defended support. But the derivatives market tells a more interesting story. Bitcoin open interest fell about 3.8% from 331,100 BTC on August 21 to 318,600 BTC on August 31. At the same time, funding costs for longs have been rising. That combination matters. Price is recovering while overall positioning is still being reduced. This is not the same setup as a rally powered by aggressive levThere is a quite interesting paradox happening in the Crypto market. A blockchain built with a focus on real-world assets (RWA), especially tokenized financial assets, but what is generating most of the attention and trading volume comes from meme coins and assets combined with stock stories. This is not simply a competition between two groups of tokens. It is becoming a crucial experiment for the entire model of bringing traditional assets onto the blockchain: Users #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls, frankly, are the last trump card before the September FOMC. The US stock market and crypto are both just sideways, playing dead, waiting for this data to give a clear signal.
What's the situation now? The September rate hike expectation has been fluctuating around 60% for almost a week. ADP beating expectations pushed it up, initial jobless claims rising pulled it down again, the data is conflicting and the market is numb. On the US stock side, the Nasdaq is grinding at a high level, tech stocks neither rising nor falling much; crypto is even more frustrating, BTC has been stuck between 77,000 and 79,000 for almost a week, ETH can't even hold 2,400, volume is pitifully low, all existing funds are just waiting for news.
Honestly, taking sides early now is just asking for a beating.
Everyone who’s been around knows how unpredictable nonfarm payrolls are; it's normal for expectations and actuals to differ by hundreds of thousands. And Washington is purely data-driven: if the data is strong, they talk tough; if the data is weak, they quickly soften their stance. Haven't we seen expectations flip-flop many times over the past six months? One day hawkish to the extreme, the next day dovish after weaker data. Anyone chasing the news has been stopped out repeatedly.
When the data drops tomorrow, there are basically two outcomes:
If the data is very strong, a rate hike is basically guaranteed. The Nasdaq will drop at least 1%, tech stocks will be hit first, BTC will look for support below 75,000, and small coins dropping 5-6% is nothing;
If the data is very weak, the market will immediately play dovish. The Nasdaq could rally, BTC could bounce back near 80,000. But don’t expect a bull run right away; the FOMC is still ahead, so at best it’s an emotional recovery wave, and after the rally, consolidation will continue. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC August payrolls feel like the final piece the Fed has been waiting for before September 👀
ADP private payrolls rose by just 38K, below the 47K forecast and the weakest result since January. The Beige Book added to the softer picture: 10 of 12 districts reported only modest growth, while hiring slowed.
What I find interesting is that markets still price a 25bp hike at roughly 62.3%. The labor data is cooling, but inflation remains difficult to dismiss. Core PCE held at 3.3%, and 54% of tracked PCE components reportedly rose more than 3% YoY—up from 47% a year ago 📊
That explains why Williams could describe inflation as encouraging while still taking a wait-and-see approach.
Tomorrow’s payroll report probably won’t settle every argument, but it should show which risk currently worries the Fed more: persistent inflation or a labor market losing momentum.$ARB 0.128.
Seven days ago it was 0.09. No one was looking.
Now up 40% in a week, another 14% in 24h. Market's dead, but ARB is carrying the whole damn show.
Why? Robinhood paid its first "rent." Orbit chain fees — 10% flow back to the DAO. First month: $360K. Not huge, but it flipped the narrative. ARB is no longer just governance air — it's a yield-generating asset.#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow Yesterday we discussed the replenishment price difference: the spacing determines how far apart adjacent levels are on the price path. If the price difference is too small, multiple levels may be triggered consecutively within a short period. However, the price triggering a certain replenishment interval does not necessarily mean the next order must be executed immediately. Many strategies also set a callback condition, requiring the price to show a certain degree of confirmation after triggering before proceeding to the next step of execution. Some might wonder, since the price has already reached the replenishment position, why wait? Does adding another condition cause the system to miss opportunities? In fact, the callback parameter does not address the question of "whether replenishment can be faster," but rather "whether there is sufficient execution confirmation when the price has just passed a position." This discussion is about the principle of the callback mechanism and does not represent a recommendation for ordinary users to adjust platform parameters themselves. The platform's current strategy default replenishment level is set to 30 lots; ordinary users can operate with the default parameters, usually only needing to adjust the initial order and leverage according to their account conditions. It is not recommended to modify the number of replenishment lots, ratio, spacing, or callback conditions on your own. 1. Price triggering and order execution are not the same moment. There are at least two easily confused states in the replenishment path: whether the price has reached the preset trigger interval, and whether the actual execution conditions are met after triggering. When the price reaches a certain level, the system first recognizes the price condition. This state can be understood as "the trigger interval has been touched" or "entered observation state." If the strategy also requires callback confirmation, the system will continue to observe whether the price moves favorably according to the rulesThe 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.82%, and the real pressure on BTC may not have been relieved yet
The 10-year US Treasury yield intraday surged to 4.82%, the highest since November 2023.
This is not an isolated bond market fluctuation.
In the past two months, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by nearly 40 basis points; long-term government bond yields in Japan, Germany, and the UK have also risen simultaneously, as global capital is demanding higher "bond returns."
ThereElon Musk's true attitude towards cryptocurrency is not measured by how much he talks, but by what he leaves behind. When he confirmed that the cryptocurrencies he holds are only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin, this list itself is the most straightforward expression of his viewpoint.
BTC and ETH's inclusion is no surprise: one is the core of the digital gold narrative, the other is the foundation of the smart contract ecosystem, both standard in any serious portfolio. The real signal lies in DOGE—a coin born from memes, with no total supply cap, and not technically advanced, placed alongside BTC and ETH. This publicly declares that in Musk's eyes, DOGE has long ceased to be a joke and is a serious holding.
Why DOGE? His preference has always been clear: valuing community consensus and payment potential over technical parameters in whitepapers. $DOGE transfers are fast, fees are low, and the community is highly engaged, perfectly fitting the everyday payment scenarios he envisions; from payment layouts on the X platform to Tesla accepting DOGE payments for merchandise, he has been paving the way for this coin, with holding it being the final link in this logical chain.
The value of this "three-coin list" goes beyond endorsing DOGE; it reveals a shift in valuation thinking: in the attention economy era, the depth of consensus can sometimes be more valuable than code rigor. Musk's holdings are his endorsement of this judgment.BTC's biggest fear now isn't Iran, but the interest rate figure no one dares to speak out loud. Have you noticed that BTC and ETH are in completely different "stress resistance" during this round of decline? Let's start with the facts. BTC is hovering between 77K and 78K, while ETH is hovering around 2.4K. On the surface, it looks like geopolitical conflicts have scared the market, but when I watch the market, I feel the real pressure cooker lid is on another level—Brent crude broke through 95, the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.81%, and the market has quietly priced in a September rate hike to 67%. For risk assets, this combination is like a bitter and strong wine that not everyone can swallow. What I care about is not the numbers themselves, but the temperature of the emotions. Look, BTC repeatedly tests the 76K to 77K range, like a cat hesitating about whether to jump off a step. If it holds here, the market can still pretend to be calm; If it falls, panic selling may be more decisive than you think. But I don't want to just tell bear stories. Let's look at it from another angle: - If BTC can form a few long lower shadows above 76K, it means funds are willing to take the cut at this level, and sentiment may shift from "flight mode" back to "wait-and-see mode." - ETH's weakness relative to BTC actually reflects that when risk appetite contracts, funds first cut flexible positions. But once macro pressure eases, ETH's rebound space often increases. - After the market repeatedly digests macro negative factors, their marginal impact diminishes$BTC $ETH Macro liquidity dimension: After Jackson Hole's hawkish speech, the market repriced policy expectations, the probability of a FOMC rate hike in September rose, real yields on US Treasuries rose, and opportunity costs for non-yielding digital assets increased, forming medium-term valuation suppression factors. The August rally was driven by net spot ETF inflows, and after entering September, ETFs saw phased net outflows, weakening marginal buying momentum; Market focus was on nonfarm payroll and core PCE inflation data, with persistently strong data further reinforcing tightening pricing and negatively affecting risk assets; If employment data weakens, it will restore easing expectations, creating a valuation recovery window for BTC. Currently, asset beta and US tech and gold remain highly corconnected, with risk appetite among major asset classes being an important constraint. Capital and On-Chain: The August rally was mainly driven by spot prices, with open contracts not excessively inflated. After a rally and pullback, bulls completed a round of profit-taking, and long-term holders' holdings did not loosen significantly, with no on-chain capitulation selling signals yet. However, short-term funding rates fell, cooling speculative bullish enthusiasm; Spot ETFs shifted from continuous net inflows to phased outflows, institutional incremental funds entered an observation period, lacking new incremental capital drivers, and prices entered a phase of high-level digestion. Technical Board: The monthly bullish structure has not been broken, but the momentum of daily bulls has weakened, MACD red bars have contracted, short-term moving averages have shown death cross signals, and the market has shifted from a one-sided trend to a high-level oscillation game mode, with volatility rising and bulls and bears adding to the marketTomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the August non-farm payroll data will be released‼️‼️
This is the last employment report before the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting. The current market expectation is for an increase of 58,000 to 80,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.
Currently, the market prices in about a 62% chance of a rate hike in September, and about a 38% chance of rates remaining unchanged.
If the increase exceeds 80,000 and wage growth surpasses expectations, the probability of a rate hike could surge to 70%-80%, and $BTC will continue to face pressure. If the increase is around 50,000 to 60,000, the probability will stay near 60%, and the market will wait for the CPI direction on September 11.
If there is negative growth again or a jump in the unemployment rate, the probability of a rate hike could fall below 50%, and $BTC $ETH might instead see a rebound.
Bank of America believes the non-farm payroll is just an "appetizer," with CPI being the "main course."
But Wintermute points out that the non-farm data could significantly change rate hike expectations before the FOMC, making this week's trend very critical.
It's coming soon‼️
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 On the grandmaster's retina, the Dutch central bank moved 86 tons of gold from New York and Ottawa to London—not as a purchase, but as a royal exchange: the king left the open flank and slipped into the bastion's deep shelter, just to let the "liquidity" rook charge straight to the center. You see the vault changing cities underground; I see an open line on the chessboard ready to launch an attack at any moment.
The 9.984-ton physical deposit by SPDR is not a bullish battle cry. It resembles a calm "transition move" in the middle game: no check, no threat, yet quietly reinforcing the central pawn chain. From now on, any attack trying to bypass from the rear flank must pay the price of an additional weak square in its pawn wall. The essence of ETF flows has never been greed, but control over the squares. Those hoarding gold think they hold the metal, but in fact, they've just exchanged for a more patient pawn formation.
Goldman Sachs laid out the hedging logic of options market makers on the table—that's the real chess score worth dissecting. Market makers are like players under infinite time pressure: when prices rise, their hedging buy orders seem to pin the bishop on its most painful diagonal, making the trend's breath more urgent; when prices fall, the same hedge feels like pulling away all your foot supports, letting panic strike the king's flank along the open line. Most players interpret these fluctuations as "conviction" or "collapse," but to the grandmaster, it's merely the opponent exchanging a single rook endgame within a limited clock.
ETF inventory and central bank reserve liquidity overlap like a stacked piece of queen and rook on the board. On the surface, there's offense and defense, but in reality, they constrain each other. The Dutch central bank only seeks to quickly convert gold into cash during crises, not to own more metal itself; the 1,056 tons accumulated by SPDR is likewise a reserve concerning "tradability." This is already an endgame mindset: no longer gobbling pieces, but calculating which safe square the king can escape to.
Whenever each breath of gold reflects on connectors like XSPCX, that diagonal line carries a certain ambiguous lethality. Ordinary eyes only follow the candlestick jumps, like staring at a knight's shadow on the board; players who can calculate twenty moves ahead instead slow their pace amid dense illusions. Every move now creates the illusion of check, but no one truly sacrifices the king's knight to claim the promise of those nine tons after the rise.
The chess clock keeps ticking, all pieces suspended on the narrow path between middle and endgame. You will see ETF tonnage refreshing, but not the bottom line where the stacked rooks have already stepped on each other's feet. The truly decisive move may not have arrived yet.#GoldETFAdds10Tons