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ETH at $2380—are you bottom-fishing or just exiting? Let's look at the surface first: geopolitical conflicts are causing risk assets to crash together. Today's dominant factor isn't ETH chain issues, but the US and Iran fighting again. Oil prices hit $95, US Treasury yields hit 4.81%, and risk assets are pulling out together. ETH fell along with BTC, but the drop was smaller than SOL—this is good news: it fell less than others. The weekly chart is still above the breakout level, and the daily chart has already hit the lower edge of the flag. 2438 is lost; next, let's see if 2350 can hold. First thing: today's drop isn't because ETH is failing, but because macroeconomics are selling off. Main funds jumped from 1850 in August to 2550, up nearly 40%. Now it has pulled back to 2380, down less than 7%. But what truly made the market nervous were three words: another rate hike. At the September 16 FOMC, the market's pricing in a "rate hike" had already risen to 35%-68%. As soon as oil prices rose and inflation expectations heated up, the market immediately shifted the "hold in September" to "possibly raise interest rates again." Nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meetings were all packed into the first two weeks of September; ETH was not trading upgrades now, but about "whether there will be another rate hike." The second thing: staking is locked up, big players are accumulating, retail investors are cutting losses. The staking rate is 35%, 2.07 million ETH are queued to enter, waiting 36 days, and the exit queue is nearly zero. Those wanting to stake are still lining up, not wanting large-scale exits. ETF net assets are $15.2 billion, accounting for 5.2% of ETH's market capitalization, with 1.85 billion inflows in August. BitMine continues to grow$FIL $AR Which is stronger, AR coin or Filecoin? AR coin is like a boutique store, belonging to the storage project niche, while FIL coin belongs to the entire storage market.
Looking at past volatility, AR coin's gains have far exceeded FIL coin's. The reason is that AR coin has a low issuance and market cap, so a single pump can cause an explosion, whereas FIL coin faces heavy mining sell pressure and is heavily suppressed.
In the short term, AR coin is a good choice for significant gains. As for which will be stronger in the future, it's still uncertain, but from this bull market cycle, AR coin seems to outperform FIL coin. If it were you, which would you choose? The Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting is scheduled for the 17th and 18th of this month.
The market generally expects a rate hike, and with the yen's rate hike, funds will flow back into the yen. A stronger yen means that the arbitrage cost for many institutions borrowing yen to buy global assets increases. As borrowing costs rise, everyone sells assets to repay yen, which can easily create a downward spiral. Refer to the previous Black Monday when the Nasdaq dropped 3% in a single day and the crypto market fell 10%, compounded by the current AI bubble.
Previously, at the G20 summit, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responded to reporters saying, "We know information the market does not know."
"We believe the Japanese government will take effective measures."
Market institutions also generally believe that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points this month. Meanwhile, in the crypto market, the well-known market maker Wintermute continues to sell assets like $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and holds a large short position with a small number of long positions as hedges.
With all these factors combined, the US stock market may face a major correction, and the crypto market will officially enter a bear market Traditional banks are actively bringing BTC and ETH to institutional trading desks.
On September 3rd, Standard Chartered Bank announced the official launch of BTC and ETH spot trading services for institutional clients in the UAE.
I think this is more noteworthy than simply "a certain coin rising a few points."
Because this time, it’s not a crypto-native trading platform expanding its business, but a Global Systemically Important Bank (G-SIB) directly bringing spot crypto asset trading into the UAE institutional market.
I increasingly feel that the crypto story is changing.
Previously, institutions entered the market mostly through ETFs, custody, or derivatives.
Now, another path is emerging:
Banks themselves offering spot trading.
This means institutional clients may no longer need to take a long detour to access BTC and ETH.
The timing is also quite interesting.
Global bond yields have just experienced a clear upward move; the US 10-year Treasury yield once surged to 4.818%, while BTC has been oscillating around $77,000.
So I wouldn’t be outright bullish just because of this news.
In the short term, macro liquidity still acts as a restraining force on crypto.
But looking at a longer cycle, I actually think this change is very important:
BTC is gradually shifting from being a "high-risk asset on exchanges" to an asset that traditional financial institutions can trade directly. The market is currently in a strong tug-of-war state. In the short term, I assess that the US NFP + Fed expectations are more important than the individual news of each coin. If the NFP is moderately weak → the likelihood of BTC reclaiming 80,000 USD will increase. If the NFP is very strong → the risk of BTC returning to 75,700–71,800 USD will be higher.Can't hold on anymore, it should drop! #FOMC last set of data before Friday's non-farm payrolls
1. Institutional funds have already diverged: all mainstream token ETFs have seen net outflows in the past two days.
Chart 1 $BTC net outflow of 200 million on the 28th, 240 million on the 1st; Chart 2 $ETH outflow of 48 million on the 2nd; Chart 3 $SOL outflow of 6.13 million on the 2nd.
This indicates institutions are no longer so confident in the market. In other words,
2. The panic of institutions fleeing wasn't even suppressed by last night's minor non-farm payroll data: last night's minor non-farm data was below expectations, only reducing the rate hike probability from 66% to 62%.
3. There are three major macro events coming up: the non-farm payroll on the 4th, CPI on the 11th, and FOMC on the 16th. BTC may not be able to hold above 75,000 in this wave.
4. One of the signals I mentioned that could lead to a drop has already started to worsen: the short-term holders' MVRV has dropped to 1.05, close to the breakeven line. Once it falls below 1.0, short-term selling pressure will avalanche.
Luckily, I bought early, so my unrealized gains are still quite substantial. I'll hold patiently; I made a swing trade on spot last time, so I won't open shorts now, waiting to buy more at lower points.Truly living up to the 'selling shovels' mindset.
NVIDIA has teamed up with Equinix and Together AI to launch an enterprise inference service called Equinix Inference Exchange, planned to go live in Q1 2027.
Simply put, it means running AI inference in data centers worldwide, so enterprises can use models without building their own data centers, just calling them nearby.
The focus here isn’t on technology but on NVIDIA starting to find a second long-term revenue stream for GPUs. Training is a centralized, costly one-time deal; inference is distributed and steady, like utilities charged by usage. Once the chip is sold, that’s it, but inference services generate continuous monthly revenue—this business is way sexier than just selling chips.
Moreover, this approach aligns with the current trend of paid AI usage, where model calls are increasingly metered and charged per use.
Enterprises keep their data local and run inference at the edge—this demand truly exists, otherwise NVIDIA wouldn’t partner with a data center giant like Equinix.
The 'selling shovels' strategy is now evolving into collecting tolls on the way, really savvy at making money 🦧
#英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 AI capital expenditure pushes up US Treasury yields, giving BTC more of a hard asset appeal
There’s a very unusual point in today’s market: AI stocks are still being chased by capital, with names like Dell, Micron, and Nvidia performing well, but AI capital expenditure and corporate bond issuance are pushing US Treasury yields higher. It sounds like a tech stock issue, but it ultimately circles back to $BTC. Because when AI companies and large enterprises keep issuing debt, competing for capital, and pushing up long-term interest rates, the market starts to reconsider one question: how long can the debt machine within the dollar system keep rolling?
$BTC is fluctuating around $77,000 today, indeed being suppressed short-term by high interest rates. As yields rise, risk asset valuations get pressured, and BTC is affected accordingly. But in the longer term, the AI arms race means bigger capital expenditures, higher financing needs, and heavier investments in power and infrastructure, all of which keep the market focused on debt and monetary credit. BTC’s strength lies in thriving in this kind of “uncertain but increasingly costly” macro environment.
The relationship between AI and $BTC isn’t as simple as “AI hype makes BTC rise.” The real chain is: increased AI capital expenditure, increased financing pressure on companies and governments, high and volatile US Treasury yields, discussions on dollar credit and fiscal sustainability, and renewed attention on hard asset allocation. BTC, as digital gold, fits into this framework. It’s not an AI coin, but it may benefit from the macro side effects brought by AI capital expenditure.
Elon Musk’s involvement also connects here. xAI, Tesla, data centers, computing power, electricity—these terms belong to tech stocks, but mining companies also have power and data center assets. The market is likely to continue hyping the story of “mining companies turning into AI data centers.” For $BTC, this adds another layer of valuation imagination to its surrounding industry chain: not just mining, but also revaluation of power and computing assets.
For short-term trading, don’t treat this long-term story as a reason to chase today’s rally. $BTC currently looks at $75,000 support and $80,000 resistance. If $75,000 holds, the AI capital expenditure and hard asset narrative can slowly ferment; if it breaks below $75,000, the market will first cut risk exposure, no matter how good the story is, it must give way to stop-loss orders. Macro narratives can provide a floor, but a floor doesn’t mean no pullbacks.
This piece is suitable to be written a bit counterintuitively: the more money AI burns, the more reason there is to discuss BTC. Because behind AI prosperity, there’s not only growth but also capital consumption, debt issuance, energy competition, and inflation pressure. The market buys AI growth on one side and buys BTC as a hedge on the other; this is not a contradiction but two sides of the same dollar liquidity logic.
Of course, $BTC is not an all-powerful hedge. If US Treasury yields continue to surge uncontrollably, all high-volatility assets will be drained short-term, including BTC. The ideal environment is high but controlled yields, dollar credit questioned but liquidity intact. This narrow space is where BTC feels most comfortable.
So the conclusion of today’s piece can be summarized like this: AI is responsible for creating growth illusions and debt pressure; $BTC is responsible for carrying people’s doubts about monetary credit. Don’t just look at the few hundred dollars of K-line fluctuations; the real story lies behind capital expenditure and interest rates. Understanding this line explains why BTC neither falls deeply nor rises sharply.
More directly, the hotter the AI sector, the more the market watches US Treasuries; the higher the Treasuries, the more short-term pressure on BTC; but the more debt and inflation discussions, the more long-term narrative for BTC. This tangled relationship is exactly why today’s market is hard to trade. Writing about $BTC must expose this contradiction so readers feel it’s not an ordinary review but something that helps them judge their positions.
The short-term risk is that if the market suddenly shifts from “AI growth” to “AI money burn,” both tech stocks and crypto assets will be cut in valuation together. $BTC is not completely immune; it just has more capital support than many altcoins. $75,000 remains the defensive line for this narrative; holding it allows the hard asset story to develop slowly, breaking it means respecting risk release first.
Therefore, today’s AI and BTC connection should not be written as just riding a hot topic but as a macro chain. AI needs money, money pushes up interest rates, rates pressure assets, debt anxiety supports BTC. The clearer this cycle, the easier it is to write in-depth $BTC articles and the more likely to retain readers.It can be adjusted to have more of a **"data foresight + crypto community interaction" feel, and make the term "rate cut" more precise — the current market is actually trading the risk of a September rate hike**, so a weak non-farm payroll doesn't necessarily mean just "full rate cut expectations," the core is actually a reduction in rate hike expectations.
Brothers, the non-farm payroll is coming this Friday! ⚠️
This is one of the most critical employment data points before the September FOMC, and the market is waiting for this hammer to set the direction.
Recent employment data has shown signs of cooling, with August ADP adding only 38,000 jobs, below expectations; and July non-farm payroll even recorded -23,000.
So this non-farm payroll is especially crucial:
📉 Employment clearly weakens → rate hike expectations cool down → USD/US Treasury yields come under pressure → $BTC $ETH are expected to see a wave of risk appetite recovery
📈 Employment stronger than expected → rate hike concerns reheat → USD strengthens → crypto market continues to be under pressure
Moreover, the market pricing for a September rate hike is already high, so the non-farm payroll is likely to amplify volatility directly.
So on Friday, don’t just focus on the non-farm payroll number itself; unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions to previous data are equally important.
Next, let's go through the top 30 popular coins one by one:
Who is waiting for a macro rebound?
Who has already weakened in advance?
Who really has substance, and who is just swimming naked? 👀
Once the non-farm payroll hammer falls, the answers will naturally come out.
#BTC #ETH #NonFarmPayroll #FOMC21 Banks Jointly Launch Stablecoin, Is USDT's "Throne" Shaken?
On September 1, 21 giants including Goldman Sachs, Citibank, and Deutsche Bank announced the joint establishment of a joint venture, planning to launch a US dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027, and gradually expand to G7 currencies such as the euro. The goal directly targets cross-border payments, institutional clearing, and digital asset settlement. Currently, the global stablecoin market exceeds $301 billion, with USDT alone holding $183.3 billion, USDC about $73.3 billion—the banking alliance is clearly not here just to "observe."
Why gather now? Three driving forces: 1. The "GENIUS Act" takes effect in January 2027, bringing stablecoin issuance under bank-level regulation, making compliance thresholds a natural barrier for banks; 2. Stablecoins are "draining" bank deposits, with Standard Chartered estimating a loss of up to $500 billion, so banks must use "their own coins" to retain capital flow; 3. Societe Generale's meager circulation of 12.5 million proves that going it alone doesn't work, and only an alliance can counter the liquidity moat of crypto-native giants.
Will USDT collapse? Not in the short term. Its foundation lies in exchange trading pairs, emerging market settlements, and 24-hour entry and exit convenience, which these bank coins cannot easily replicate in the short term. But the market will inevitably stratify: the compliance layer (cross-border, institutional) will be eroded by bank coins, USDC, and USAT; the offshore crypto layer will still be dominated by USDT.
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🇺🇸 The US is shouting about becoming the "crypto capital," so why isn't the market rising?
Today's market situation is quite interesting.
The policy side is clearly leaning positive.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated that the CLARITY Act is expected to advance in September, with the Senate planning a related vote on September 15. The core of this bill is to further clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, establishing clearer rules for the digital asset market.
Logically, this kind of news should stimulate the market.
But here’s the problem:
BTC hasn't risen much, and ETH is actually under more pressure.
It seems that funds are not immediately choosing to heavily enter the market just because of a long-term positive outlook.
Some interesting actions can also be seen on-chain.
Garrett Jin just closed a long position of 276 BTC, profiting about $210,000, and currently still holds about 1592 BTC.
So I prefer to interpret this as:
Not bearish, but taking profits along the way.
This is actually the biggest contradiction in the market right now:
Policies are becoming friendlier, but funds have not fully followed.
The CLARITY Act addresses long-term regulatory issues.
But whether BTC can truly break through $80,000 in the short term ultimately depends on:
Whether ETFs have sustained net inflows,
How macro liquidity is,
And whether spot buying is strong enough.
Policies can open the door.
But what really pushes the price up is real money.
So I won’t be outright bullish just because of one positive news.
News is the catalyst; funds are the engine.
Without funds to take over, even the biggest positive news can turn into:
Exciting news, but calm candlesticks. 😂
$BTC $ETH
⟡ Observe and act
⟡ Trade with restraint
⟡ Trade without attachment
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.Here's a version with stronger market sentiment + data impact + interactivity:
$ETH fell below 2400, marking a third consecutive day of decline📉
This wave of bulls is really struggling.
Big brother Maji's Ethereum long position dropped below $100 million, with an overall unrealized loss exceeding $1.1 million, clearly getting a harsh lesson from the market.
Even more noteworthy is the funding side:
📉 ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $48.08 million yesterday, ending a 12-day streak of net inflows.
📉 Liquidations in the last 24 hours totaled about $50.21 million, with longs at $30.65 million and shorts at $19.55 million.
ETH's current sentiment is clearly bearish. Although trading volume has picked up, after losing 2400, it's hard for the short term to continue sideways consolidation.
Next, watch for two directions:
🔥 Can it reclaim 2400, or even launch a counterattack toward 2500?
📉 If 2400 remains a resistance, the next step might be to look for lower support.
Bulls holding long positions must be feeling pretty rough right now.
What do you think about $ETH — is this a shakeout before a rebound, or is the downtrend not over yet?👀
#ETH #EthereumHere's a more concise, high-engagement trading viewpoint version tailored for OKX / X, keeping the core logic but less lengthy:
$CL short crude oil: Supply opens the floodgates, demand cools down, is the rebound an opportunity?
The current crude oil structure resembles the weak consolidation after $BTC broke key support:
📉 Highs keep moving lower, rebounds get weaker.
On the supply side, OPEC+ is increasing production, US shale oil remains high, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana continue to ramp up output, adding supply pressure.
Demand side is also not optimistic:
🇨🇳 China’s demand is under pressure
🇺🇸 US driving season is nearing its end
🇪🇺 Europe’s economy is weak
Global manufacturing demand lacks clear growth.
Looking at inventories and term structure, if inventories keep accumulating and the distant month premium widens, these are bearish signals for shorts.
My trading approach:
👉 WTI: Consider shorting on rebounds near 69–70, stop loss above 71, target around 65
👉 Brent: Consider shorting near 73–74, stop loss at 75.5, target around 68
Of course, the biggest variables for crude remain OPEC cuts + Middle East geopolitical risks.
So don’t chase shorts, wait for the rebound.
Do you think this crude move is a trend reversal or just a pure geopolitical premium play? 👀
$CLAnthropic continues to ramp up computing power procurement; before the IPO, the story to watch is not revenue, but cost.
AI companies are best at telling growth stories: stronger models, more customers, bigger scenarios. But the truly scary numbers lie elsewhere—training costs money, inference costs money, chip leasing and cloud contracts also cost money. The closer to going public, the more the market will ask a very practical question: are these revenues largely eaten up by computing power costs?
I think if Anthropic's prospectus is made public, its most valuable aspect won't be the valuation, but whether it can let outsiders clearly see its unit economics model.
AI companies are not lacking faith now; what they lack is a profit roadmap that reassures people. Without this roadmap, no matter how impressive the growth curve is, it will make people uneasy.
#Anthropic算力采购加码，IPO成本受关注 🚨 $CORE Collapse Countdown: Is the Hard Fork the Final Straw?
Core DAO’s emergency hard fork, triggered by validator reward issues, looks less like an upgrade and more like a patch for deeper consensus problems.
The bigger concern: excess $CORE won’t be burned, leaving the added supply in circulation.
No strong buying pressure, limited liquidity, and exchange suspensions could make the next supply release painful#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue 1. Tonight's initial claims are just a warm-up with limited volatility, no need to heavily speculate; the real high volatility window is tomorrow night at 20:30 with the non-farm payrolls.
2. When the data is released, watch the sequence of three items: average hourly earnings → new jobs added + previous value revisions → unemployment rate. Don't just focus on the headline new numbers.
3. In the first 15-30 minutes after release, there is a high probability of two-way spikes and explosive bilateral leverage; many algorithmic fake moves, so don't chase the first wave, wait for secondary confirmation.
4. The current range itself is oscillating between 76k-80k; the non-farm payrolls are more likely to amplify the range volatility rather than directly trigger a one-sided big trend; the real trend-changing expectations depend on the subsequent CPI.
Therefore, for short-term operations from now until tomorrow night, a prudent approach is to stay out and observe. If you must trade, you can short near 79,000 and go long near 76,000, always with light positions, strictly set stop losses, and manage risk well! #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH Take it, first see when 75600 arrives.
The stop loss is near 79600, and there is an opportunity to add positions near 79000.
Around 75500, you can consider a short-term long, but ideally, the 71800 Fibonacci retracement level is still the best pattern choice.
Oil price is 90+, long-term interest rates remain high, employment is cooling down, but inflation as the highest priority will still suppress risk assets.
Currently, only $BTC short positions and one $SKHYNIX long position.
The trend logic of crypto and storage is not quite the same; while liquidity is sensitive, the positive earnings outlook for storage remains unchanged.
Recently, not paying attention to SanDisk.
Focus on DRAM, the logic is actually stronger. Wait a bit longer for NAND.
The tactical position can be exited first, waiting quietly for the non-farm payroll.
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's non-farm payroll Net outflow has finally stopped!
113 days, watching stablecoins flow out every day
People are numb to it
On September 1st, the reading turned positive
Over ten million USD
Sounds like a lot
But it was cut in half the next day
This is not inflow
This is just the outflow stopping
SSR has fallen from the high point
Purchasing power has recovered a bit
But still far from normal
I don't believe this is the start of a rise
At most, it means no more bleeding
The real money hasn't come back yet
Wait until it turns positive for several consecutive weeks
If you rush in now
You're just feeding the market makers again
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $BTC Why did both of these assets first form two consistent horizontal high points, then on the third attempt, useless directly broke through, and the daily chart has risen 110% so far, while mubark just touched the high point and dropped immediately? 1. For useless, at the high point, there is a four-timeframe resonance across 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. The daily close is a bullish candle at this level, and at the corresponding time, the 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute charts also closed bullish at this resistance line. For mubarak, only the 10:00 1-hour and 15-minute charts resonate with bullish closes at the resistance point. There is no 4-hour or daily resonance. 2. Structure. Useless formed a horizontal consolidation structure very close to the resistance area. Mubarak did not form a horizontal consolidation, only a gradual bearish rise pattern. However, it is important to note that mubarak's failure to break through this time does not mean it is doomed. We need to see if it will continue horizontal consolidation and then break upward. That upward breakout would also be a very good entry point. Another characteristic is that during useless's horizontal consolidation, it formed a W pattern where the right bottom is higher than the left bottom.Core Insights Summary of the Bull Market
80% of the bull market phase is a struggle; truly easy profits are rare.
April 2025 was the darkest moment for Ethereum. While Bitcoin only dropped 30%, Ethereum plummeted 60% to complete its bottoming. In early May, Ethereum rebounded with three consecutive large bullish candles to 2800 points, then entered a two-month sideways phase. However, the market generally regarded this as a normal rebound, with no one optimistic about a trend reversal.
At the end of the consolidation, Ethereum briefly faked a breakdown to 2100 points, pushing market pessimism to the max. Most believed the bear market was returning. Yet the price immediately reversed against the trend, rising to 3900 points, with market divergence still huge. Throughout this rally, caution prevailed; bears continuously opened short positions against the trend, never stopping even after repeated liquidations. In early August, Ethereum corrected to 3400 points, and combined with past experience of topping at 4000 points, many investors panicked and exited.
Now Bitcoin has risen from 60,000 to 80,000 but is stuck in a frustrating consolidation. Market sentiment is scattered: some await a deep correction, some hold firm to buy the dip, others watch for the cycle bottom. Even small price fluctuations trigger collective panic, which is the norm in a bull market.
Bull markets are always accompanied by divergence and noise, with bulls and bears battling, news causing volatile ups and downs, and sudden positive or negative events quickly losing impact. Yet these constantly disrupt investors’ judgment, causing frequent swing trades and premature exits.
Bull market launches never follow logic. In October 2023, the macro environment was extremely poor and did not meet bull market conditions, yet the rally quietly began. Therefore, during the mid-stage of a bull market, frequent trading is unnecessary; the best strategy is to settle in, stay low-profile, and control your impulses Brothers! Let's talk about this Friday's non-farm payrolls. Before the Fed's next meeting (FOMC), this is the last hardcore data release, so the whole market is watching it even more closely than usual. Non-farm payrolls are basically a health check report on the U.S. employment market, released on the first Friday evening of every month (at 8:30 or 9:30 PM Beijing time, depending on daylight saving). It mainly looks at three numbers: new non-farm employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage growth. Once these three numbers come out, the market immediately goes into a frenzy.
Why is this non-farm payrolls so critical? Because the Fed right now is like a hesitant driver, foot hovering between the brake and the gas pedal, unsure which to press. Inflation data has been sticky lately—not falling but not surging either; if employment data remains strong, the Fed has no reason to rush rate cuts and might even turn more hawkish; if employment suddenly cools off, rate cut expectations heat up, and the market can rally. So this non-farm payrolls release is the last puzzle piece for the Fed to decide which way to steer.
So how will the market react after Friday's non-farm payrolls? Let's break it down into three scenarios.
First, if the data greatly exceeds expectations, for example, new jobs exceed 200,000, unemployment rate drops, and wages rise sharply. Then it's over: the dollar index will definitely surge, U.S. Treasury yields will jump, gold will take a hit first, U.S. stocks might open lower because "good economy = Fed not rushing to ease = higher rates stay longer." In the crypto space, $BTC will most likely pull back along with risk assets, altcoins will suffer even more because liquidity... I'm dumbfounded!
I'm dumbfounded!
I'm dumbfounded, brothers!
One long position and one short position, both sides are losing.
The long at 2415 is floating with nearly a 50-point loss, and the short at 2350 hasn't made much profit either.
Honestly, I don't even know how I got into this situation. Looking at the account, I want to laugh at myself.
Long on the left hand, short on the right, getting hit from both sides, like a fool being rubbed back and forth around the 2400 level.
But I haven't closed out.
It's not that I don't want to exit, I just feel something's off.
Think about it, bad news keeps coming one after another: Fed hawkish speeches, US-Iran conflicts, whales dumping, institutions clearing altcoins—weren't these all previously enough to crash the market?
But $ETH only dropped to 2356 at the lowest, never even touched 2350, then bounced back near 2400.
Why can't it be pushed down?
I stared at the market all day thinking.
Either big money is accumulating below, or the shorts no longer dare to push it down further.
A position that even $400 million can't move—if they try a fourth time, can they still push it down?
Moreover, the data: if ETH falls below 2294, long liquidations are only 627 million.
But if ETH breaks 2531, short liquidations reach 1.277 billion, double the amount.
Once shorts get squeezed, the stampede will be much fiercer than expected.
Bad news can't push it down, yet shorts keep piling up.
So even though both sides are losing, I don't plan to move.
The direction hasn't changed, the logic hasn't changed, all that's left is to wait.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the final test. Once the bad news is exhausted, only upward movement remains.
$BTC
$DOGE
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 ETH's streak of 12 consecutive days of ETF inflows has ended, and XRP's 11-day continuous inflow also stopped on the same day. More unusually, BTC ETF turned to net inflows on that day.
On September 2, the US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $48.08 million, ending a 12-day streak of cumulative inflows totaling approximately $1.62 billion. The XRP ETF also saw a net outflow of about $7.2 million on the same day, ending 11 consecutive trading days of inflows.
However, the BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $101.2 million, exactly reversing the previous day's net outflow of $236.5 million. This looks like funds moving from altcoin ETFs back to BTC, but one day's data is not enough to confirm rotation.
Not all funds within the same asset class are withdrawing. BlackRock's ETHA had a net outflow of about $53.4 million, while its staked ETH ETF ETHB had a net inflow of about $53 million. The "ETH fund outflow" in the headline masks portfolio rebalancing between products.
What to watch next is not just the red or green of a single day, but whether the second and third trading days continue to show the combination of BTC inflows and ETH and XRP outflows. If it quickly reverses, it's just rebalancing; if it continues, it more likely indicates institutional preference is contracting.
Open $BTC and $ETH to check real-time trading volume. Do you think this is just a single-day rebalancing, or that institutional funds are starting to shift back toward BTC? Wall Street delivered a lesson this week that every AI investor should sit with: being part of the AI trade isn't enough anymore. The market wants proof that growth is speeding up, not just showing up. $AVGO: A Monster Quarter That Still Wasn't Monster Enough Broadcom's numbers were, by almost any measure, extraordinary. Total revenue jumped 86% year-over-year to $29.6 billion, topping Wall Street's forecast. AI semiconductor sales more than tripled, up 221% to $16.7 billion. Adjusted earnings oBrothers, looking again at the US stock market pre-market tonight, this market is actually quite conflicted 😂
Currently, US stock futures are generally stable, Nasdaq futures are slightly up, mainly because tech stocks have recovered in the past couple of days, with Nvidia once again becoming the emotional engine of the AI sector. Recently, market confidence in Nvidia's AI customer expansion and AI computing power demand is returning, so the AI theme hasn't deteriorated for now.
But here I have to pour cold water: although Broadcom's earnings report was good, its guidance did not fully meet the market's expectation that "AI must continue to explode," and its pre-market stock price was under pressure. This shows that the AI sector is no longer "just talk AI and it rises," but is starting to truly test orders, capital expenditures, and future guidance.
So tonight, I won't be too pessimistic, but I also won't blindly chase highs. If Nvidia, AI, and semiconductors continue to be strong, Nasdaq has a chance to continue its recovery; but once tech stocks surge and then fall back, risk assets like $BTC and $ETH are also likely to be dragged down.
The most critical is tomorrow's US August nonfarm payrolls; the market is now waiting for this big test. Recent employment data has clearly been weak, and the Fed's September rate hike expectations have been pushed back up to about 60%.
So my judgment tonight is simple: US stocks are biased bullish on AI recovery, but don't get carried away; BTC/ETH continue to look for consolidation, and the real big direction awaits the nonfarm payrolls for an answer. In this market, no one should pretend they can predict precisely, even the big players might not know where the next candlestick will go 😂 $SNDK $NVDA #Last data before FOMC: this Friday's nonfarm payrolls. $BTC has pulled back, but has the capital really exited?
BTC has fallen back to around $77,000, with market sentiment clearly cooling down. The fear and greed index has dropped to 58, still in the greed zone. But one detail is worth noting: while BTC ETFs have recently seen net outflows, ETH ETFs have maintained inflows for several consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA net inflow exceeding $71 million last week.
This looks more like a rotation of funds rather than a full retreat.
Previously, $BTC pushed from around $70,000 to above $80,000, so profit-taking is normal. What’s truly worth watching is whether BTC outflows continue and whether ETH can keep absorbing this liquidity. If funds remain in the crypto market but just switch the main focus, then the market is likely just taking a mid-game break rather than ending.
Data shows Ethereum's inflation rate dropped to 0.45% in July, with network activity remaining active. Once ETH effectively holds above the 2400 level, it could be a technical signal attracting capital rotation.
Is this a sign of reduced risk or the start of a main trend switch? The answer might lie in the capital flow after the non-farm payroll release. Stay closely tuned and remain flexible.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Friday 20:30, the real big shock is coming: BTC at 77,000, waiting for the non-farm payroll to decide life or death
The most critical employment report before the FOMC is about to be revealed, and the current contradiction is very extreme:
Employment is cooling down, but inflation refuses to drop.
August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, below the expected 48,000, showing a clear slowdown in hiring; but July core PCE remains as high as 3.3%, and Walsh further pointed out that 54% of the items in the PCE basket have year-on-year increases exceeding 3%, indicating price pressures are far from relieved.
Therefore, the market still assigns about a 60%—63% probability of a rate hike in September.
On Friday, there are three scenarios to watch:
**Non-farm payroll significantly stronger than 58,000:** Hawkish logic strengthens, BTC defends 75,000 or even 72,000;
**Close to expectations:** Rate hike uncertainty continues, 76,000—80,000 range sees repeated tug-of-war;
**Significantly below expectations and wage cooling:** Rate hike bets may quickly fade, giving BTC a chance to challenge 80,000 again.
What truly determines the market is not whether the non-farm payroll is good or bad, but whether it can overturn the rate hike scenario the market has already priced in. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 One-sentence conclusion: Today is TRIIA's planned unlock day (about 90.17 million tokens released, accounting for 0.9% of total supply, about 4% of circulation)—so what happened? The price sideways above 0.0036 for a day, now at 0.00374, but daily trading volume has shrunk by about 73% compared to yesterday. The expected negative news has arrived, but the market is "unable to break down": the $0.00357-0.00362 range has been tested three times without breaking (9/1, 9/2, 9/3), and bears failed to capitalize on the unlock day to hit new lows. But don't rush to call for bottoms—the rebound is equally weak, and TRIA seems to have fallen into a liquidity-no-man's land with no one dumping or rushing to buy. Today's review: The "calm" on the unlock day is news in itself. Let's break down the past three days (OKX Perpetual Daily Chart): • 9/1: Inertia bearish decline -4%, touched $0.003618 intraday, hitting a historic low at the time; • 9/2: Continued grinding, lowest **0.003571** (new record low), closed at 0.003715, -4.2%; • 9/3 (today, unlock day): low 0.00361 again unbroken, high touched 0.00386 but pulled back again, current quote $0.00374 — basically flat in place. Three details worth noting: 1. **Three tests of the 0.0036 area, no bears gained**: 9/1 touched 0.003618, 9/2 inserted pin 0.003571 (a record low during the session) but closedEarlier, people were shouting that the US was finally going to set rules for the crypto market. Now, the prediction market has poured a bucket of cold water on that. The probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 has dropped to about 15% $BTC $ETH. So what exactly is this act? Simply put, it's the market structure bill that the US crypto community has been hoping for a long time. The core is to clearly define the responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC— which coins fall under SEC jurisdiction and which digital assets fall under CFTC jurisdiction—providing exchanges and DeFi with a set of federal-level rules of the game. The House of Representatives passed it early on, but it got stuck in the Senate. Why the sharp drop in probability? Because the Senate needs 60 votes, and the Republicans don't have enough votes; they need some Democrats to defect. Both sides are stuck on several deadlocks: whether public officials can trade crypto, stablecoin reward clauses, banking interests conflicts—these issues can't be resolved. Congress has very little working time left, and the voting window is especially narrow. Isn't this just a joke? Not long ago, everyone thought it was done. Now you hit the brakes, like going to the civil affairs bureau to get a marriage certificate—rings bought, banquet booked, social media posts done—and the staff says, "Don't rush, we still need internal discussions." The market had already priced in clear regulatory expectations. If it keeps dragging on or fails outright this year, projects that rely on regulatory implementation to tell their story will probably have to recalculate. The 15% is the probability from the prediction market, not a total death sentence—just that the hope for implementation by 2026 is slim. The act can be amended and brought back for debate by the new Congress next year. #FOMC last batch beforeHistorically, BTC averages -3% in September, known as Rektember.
This year's script is more complete:
August first rallies 25% to give hope,
September then takes that hope away with geopolitical issues + treasury sell-offs + small ETF outflows.
Currently stuck at 76.3k–77.8k, as if waiting for the nonfarm payrolls and FOMC to deliver their verdict together.#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Dell's big bullish candle hasn't even been digested yet, and Broadcom and Snowflake have already reported.
These two earnings reports point in the same direction—AI demand is spreading downstream from the hardware layer. Dell sells servers, Broadcom sells network chips, Snowflake sells data cloud. From computing power to data, the entire chain is growing.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold. The narrative is spreading; AI demand extending to servers and data cloud is an indirect positive for AI tracks and DePIN projects in crypto. Risk appetite is stabilizing, the profitability quality of tech stocks is being continuously validated, and crypto, as a high-beta asset, will not lack its own narrative space as long as the macro environment doesn't collapse.
Here’s my view. Broadcom's guidance missing expectations and being hit indicates the market's pricing of AI has moved from "whether there is demand" to "whether the realization speed is fast enough." Snowflake's 21% rise shows AI revenue on the software side is accelerating. For projects with real business support, the direction is clearer.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH High oil prices, high interest rates. The Fed's stance remains focused on the 2% inflation target. The pricing of risk assets should face sustained pressure. However, it seems Americans have now gotten used to the high yields on U.S. Treasuries. It's unclear when the market will refocus its attention on U.S. Treasury yields. $BTC 昨天美联储三把手、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯很突然现身CNBC专访，给美债市场浇了点凉水。 他核心就讲了几层意思： 近期通胀数据有可喜的回落迹象，整体还在缓慢下行通道里； 目前的利率水平处在“良好位置”，能兼顾就业和物价； 至于9月加不加息，还得接着看数据，现在没定论。 为什么说是意外呢？ 因为正常美联储官员的正式公开演讲，都会提前3-7天挂在对应联储的官网日程表上，时间、地点、主题写得明明白白，属于早就排好的公务活动，普通散户也能提前查到。 但今晚这场是电视直播专访，不算官方正式演讲序列。这类采访一般只提前1-3天敲定档期，只会在专业付费财经终端发个短预告，不会登上美联储的公开日历。散户平时看的免费财经日程一般搜不到，所以体感上就像“临时突然冒出来的讲话”。 那威廉姆斯这次讲话，很明显是奔着美债去的，因为他主管的纽约联储，负责的是国债市场操作，是FOMC里最关注10年期、30年期美债的官员。 所以他讲完话之后，十年美债收益率从4.83%一度跌到4.76%。 但威廉姆斯的讲话属于典型的对冲式话术，既没有给出利率承诺，也强调了如果通胀不走预期，加息还是合适选项，这类讲话一般是修正极端行情用的，Everyone is waiting for 8:30 PM tomorrow night, but I always feel that the real focus of this non-farm payroll report isn't just the headline number.
In the past, everyone rushed to look at the new jobs added, but now I just want to wait for the data to come out and pay attention to the often overlooked "revisions" section. The last time already revealed a lot: July's new jobs were directly revised down to negative, and May and June combined were cut by more than 100,000. In other words, the initial numbers from the statistics bureau were just guesses, and they quietly revised them later. This kind of after-the-fact adjustment is much more honest than the cold initial figures on the day.
So even if the new jobs number looks pretty good tomorrow night, don't get too excited too quickly. If the previous two months get revised down again, it means the US labor market isn't as strong as the initial data suggests. Jumping in just by looking at the headline can easily lead to getting the direction wrong.
For BTC, this matter isn't that simple either. If employment cools down, the rate hike pressure can ease, which should be good for risk assets. But if it cools too much and the market starts worrying about a recession, highly volatile assets like Bitcoin are often the first to be sold off. Whether it's bullish or bearish really depends on which story the market chooses to tell at that moment.
I will also take a look at wage growth. Only if wage increases cool down along with employment does it indicate that inflation is truly retreating; otherwise, just looking at employment numbers doesn't tell the whole story.
And don't forget, this is just the last non-farm payroll report before the rate decision, with CPI still waiting in line. Even if the direction tomorrow night is right, don't rush to go all in and lie flat; there are still many uncertainties ahead. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The start of September has diluted much of the good mood from August. At the beginning of the month, geopolitical tensions suddenly surged, oil prices surged above $90, US Treasury yields rose to 4.81%, and Bitcoin immediately retreated from its high, briefly dropping below $77,000. CoinGlass's historical statistics show an average decline of about 3% in September, with only five gains, earning it the nickname "Rektember." Macro pressures combined with seasonal weakness naturally lead to cautious market sentiment. 📉 However, a closer look at the structure does not warrant overly pessimism. The $73,000 to $75,000 range is widely seen as a strong support zone; as long as spot ETF funds do not continue to see significant outflows, after shakeout and consolidation, the market still aims to move toward the $92,000 to $100,000 range. The real key moment is the September 15 policy meeting, with a current rate hike probability of about 66%. This outcome will directly determine the direction of liquidity logic. If rates remain unchanged, long-suppressed buying pressure may quickly be filled. Sector divergence is also worth noting. SOL rose over 40% in August, and after the deflation proposal passed, an upgrade is imminent. If it can hold between $98 and $100, the next target may be $117. HYPE performed even stronger, rising 4% against the trend during Bitcoin pullbacks, with a cumulative 230% increase this year. After being included in the Nasdaq index, whale accounts continue to buy, and its buyback and burn mechanism provides some support for the price. ETH is awaiting a bill vote, with valuations still at relatively low levels. ✨ The market always breeds reversals amid extreme sentiment and remains patientThe world's largest gold ETF increased its holdings by nearly 10 tons in one go yesterday, bringing its position back above 1,056 tons. A single-day inflow of 9.984 tons—the last time we saw such a large volume was during the July surge of gold $XAU to 4600. Behind this is the weaker-than-expected August ADP employment data, which slightly eased rate hike expectations, allowing gold to rebound. The Dutch central bank also made moves. From March to August this year, they moved 86 tons of gold froIran has started directly attacking the US military base in Kuwait,
Has the conflict crossed another line?
Iran recently claimed that missiles and drones have targeted
the Ali Al Salem US Air Force base in Kuwait.
Kuwait's air defense system activated interceptions for the second consecutive night, and a US-related residential area was also hit by a drone and caught fire.
Here it is important to distinguish: Iran claims to have hit the base and caused US military losses, but the US's preliminary assessment so far is that there are no casualties, and the exact damage to the base has not yet been fully confirmed.
What the market should really be wary of is the scope of the attacks.
Previously, the main conflict was the US striking Iran and Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz; now Iran is expanding its retaliation to countries hosting US troops such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq.
This means the risk is spreading from a "war on Iranian soil" to the entire Gulf military base network.
However, crude oil prices slightly retreated today, with Brent around $95.2 and WTI around $90.8.
The reason is simple: while the market is pricing in regional war risk premiums, it has also seen no confirmed new large-scale US-Iran clashes in the past few hours, and Trump has said the new round of actions will not last long.
So there are now two completely different scenarios:
If Iran continues to attack US military bases, even affecting refineries, ports, and energy export facilities, the risk of oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase, and inflation and Federal Reserve pressure will continue to transmit to BTC.
#OKX预言家：欧洲豪门交锋，F1意大利站预测进行中 The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note intraday reached a high of 4.814%, marking a new peak since November 2023. The market is repricing the prolonged cycle of high interest rates and the long-term fiscal risks of the United States.
There are three main drivers behind the recent rise in long-term rates: first, Middle East tensions have disturbed oil prices, increasing the risk of inflation rebound and limiting the Federal Reserve's room for future rate cuts; second, the US fiscal deficit remains high with ample long-term debt supply, prompting the market to demand a higher term risk premium; third, economic divergence with weakness supports easing, but high inflation and high debt constrain easing space, causing long-term rates to rise first.
The impact on capital markets is clear: US Treasury yields are the global core valuation anchor, and rising rates directly increase funding costs. In the US stock market, high-valuation growth stocks such as AI chips, cloud computing, and software are under significant pressure, with future earnings discounted more heavily, increasing valuation compression.
Gold's trend shows a complex divergence: traditionally, rising rates suppress gold prices, but the current market focuses more on US Treasury debt risk and geopolitical safe-haven attributes, offsetting the negative impact of rates. Therefore, gold prices remain relatively resilient and have not weakened.
Overall, the world has entered a phase of repricing high interest rates, and valuation pressure on risk assets persists. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 The interesting part isn’t the bounce. It’s what each coin is fighting underneath it. $ACE /USDT is the highest-risk setup. ACE has an unlock scheduled for September 3, while another larger monthly release is scheduled for September 18. That makes chasing a spike dangerous. At $0.18456, I’d watch $0.185–$0.19 first. Reclaim and hold → momentum can continue. Lose $0.175 → I’d step aside. $XRP /USDT looks different. XRP ETF demand has stayed surprisingly strong, with 11 consecutive sessions of inMacro Background: Dual Impact of US-Iran Conflict + Interest Rate Hike Expectations
US-Iran conflict continues to escalate — the greatest geopolitical risk
After the US military expanded strikes against Iran on September 1, BTC quickly dropped from above $79,000 to $77,200, a decline of up to 2.1%. Direct clashes between the US and Iran resumed, pushing Brent crude oil above $90.50, while the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 4.8%.
Interest rate hike expectations loom — the biggest macroeconomic headwind
Following the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged from 35% to nearly 60%-65%. Traders generally believe that a slowdown in employment is insufficient to change the main expectation of a September rate hike; if employment performs better than expected, a September hike will be almost certain.
Friday's nonfarm payroll data — the biggest variable this week
ADP employment data weakened, but inflation remains the Federal Reserve's primary concern. Even if nonfarm payrolls weaken, a rate hike cannot be completely ruled out. Polymarket contracts still reflect a considerable probability of a September rate hike. The downside risk protection range is between $68,000 and $75,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 BTC holding near $77,837 while ETH and SOL lag its daily gain suggests this is still a selective risk bid, not a broad crypto breakout. I would treat the move as cautious positioning into the last NFP before the FOMC, with macro sensitivity still in control.
Gold ETF inflows and weak crude add to the defensive backdrop. Until participation widens beyond BTC, durability matters more than headline momentum, and stronger #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue TRON recently had some impressive data.
In one month, on-chain USDT directly increased by about $4 billion, bringing the total to $94.27 billion, even surpassing Ethereum.
But interestingly, TRON’s growth isn’t necessarily because its “ecosystem is more prosperous.”
Many people use TRON not to play DeFi.
They just transfer USDT, for cross-border remittances, fund settlements, exchange deposits and withdrawals—simple, cheap, and sufficient.
This actually gives us a very interesting perspective:
The true value of a public chain isn’t necessarily reflected by how many people hype its narrative,
but by how much money is willing to flow through it every day.
ETH is more like a financial application layer.
TRON is increasingly like a highway for stablecoins.
Who can keep the money isn’t important.
Who can keep the money flowing continuously might be more important.
$TRX $USDT $ETH BTC holding near $77,837 while ETH and SOL lag its daily gain suggests this is still a selective risk bid, not a broad crypto breakout. I would treat the move as cautious positioning into the last NFP before the FOMC, with macro sensitivity still in control.
Gold ETF inflows and weak crude add to the defensive backdrop. Until participation widens beyond BTC, durability matters more than headline momentum, and stronger balance sheets should command the premium.
Just my read, not advice.Nonfarm Preview: The Last Trump Card Before the FOMC
Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report is the last trump card before the September FOMC.
Currently, the market's expectation for a September rate hike hovers around 60%—ADP data beating expectations pushes it up, initial jobless claims rising pulls it down, data conflicts leave the market numb. US stocks are consolidating at high levels; tech stocks neither rise nor fall sharply; BTC has been stuck between 77,000 and 79,000 for a week, ETH can't even hold above 2,400, all existing funds are just waiting for news.
Taking sides early is just giving up your head. It's very normal for nonfarm expectations and actuals to differ by hundreds of thousands. The Fed is purely data-driven; if the data is strong, they are hawkish; if the data is weak, they turn dovish. Chasing news back and forth only leads to getting hit.
Two possible outcomes:
Strong data: A rate hike is nailed down, the Nasdaq drops at least 1%, BTC directly seeks support below 75,000, and small altcoins generally start with gains of 5-6%.
Weak data: The market plays dovish, the Nasdaq rallies, BTC bounces back near 80,000. But don't expect a direct bull run; the FOMC is still ahead.
Wait for the landing before making moves; don't bet on direction.Summary conclusion: Hardware is "exploding this quarter, slightly soft next quarter, and even crazier in the long term"; software is "accelerating growth again, directly raising the full-year forecast."
Broadcom: Revenue 29.59 billion (+86%), adjusted EPS 3.32, both beating expectations.
But the earnings call extended the story: AI revenue this fiscal year reached 58 billion, and they expect to double and double again over the next two years. The market is no longer debating "whether AI exists," but rather "whether the slope this quarter is sufficient, and how supply and customer concentration will affect pricing."
Snowflake: Revenue 1.55 billion versus expected 1.48 billion; product revenue 1.49 billion, EPS 0.62 versus 0.45. Full-year product revenue raised from 5.84 billion to 6.07 billion, and profit margin guidance also upgraded.
AI products contribute roughly half of the acceleration, with shares surging directly after hours. This is a rare case on the software side where "growth and profit margin are both delivered."
The implication for trading is straightforward: AI capital expenditure narrative remains intact, but pricing has shifted from "whether it exists" to "how many points difference there are."
Broadcom is watched for how short-term guidance and long-term targets are traded separately; Snowflake is watched to see if consumption can sustain the 36% full-year growth. Don't read the two earnings reports as the same story.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The yen exchange rate has once again returned to 160
It has only been a month since the joint US-Japan market rescue at the end of July, which involved dumping 154 trillion yen, and not only was the money wasted, but the US-Japan joint intervention was also proven ineffective. Neither Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo nor US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has any solution now. The most expensive joint market rescue in history ultimately ended in failure because they simply did not apply the right remedy.
This US-Japan joint market rescue was actually aimed at suppressing carry trades, and the core of carry trades is the US-Japan interest rate differential. Recently, the new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, at the Jackson Hole conference, directly pushed the market's rate hike expectations higher and higher, widening the US-Japan interest rate gap and increasing carry trades. The only two ultimate solutions are: US rate cuts or Japan rate hikes.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently seen through this logic and simply refuses to intervene in the market rescue, instead directly pressuring Japan to raise rates. In a recent interview, Yellen said she believes Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will do the right thing. She said she has known Ueda for 15 years and that he is an outstanding economist, and the market probably underestimates his sensitivity. No matter how much you praise Ueda, behind this is a subtle push for him to raise rates quickly. The market now prices a 90% probability of a BOJ rate hike in September.
So if the problem is so easy to solve, why is Japan dragging its feet on raising rates? Actually, you are really misunderstanding the Bank of Japan; they have already raised rates twice this year. For the BOJ, every rate hike comes with a heavy cost, which has three layers:
The most obvious is Japan's debt pressure. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is 240%, the highest among developed countries worldwide. Even a 0.25% (25 basis points) increase in interest rates means the Japanese government must pay an additional 3 trillion yen in interest annually, nearly 3% of fiscal revenue, which is unbearable. This is also the main reason why Kono Sanae keeps pressuring the BOJ not to raise rates.
Second, rate hikes increase economic pressure. Everyone knows global central banks raise rates to suppress inflation, but Japan's inflation has never been demand-driven; it is supply-driven due to high import prices. Because the Strait of Hormuz conflict has been ongoing for years, global oil prices remain high, causing domestic energy prices in Japan, which imports 90% of its energy, to soar. High import prices cannot be suppressed by rate hikes; instead, rate hikes accelerate economic contraction. In other words, the economy is blocked at both ends, and Japan's economy may be suffocated by continuous rate hikes.
The third point is the valuation hit to the Japanese stock market. The Japanese stock market has recently enjoyed a two-year bull run, mainly thanks to the ultra-low interest rate environment that created favorable conditions for corporate valuations. But once the rate hike channel opens, rising Japanese bond yields will narrow the gap between stock and bond yields, reducing the stock market's attractiveness and causing capital to slowly withdraw from Japanese stocks.
Does the US, Japan's big brother, know about these difficulties? Of course, it does. Treasury Secretary Yellen on the other side has long been aware. But the US simply does not want to consider these difficulties for Ueda Kazuo. The US demand is only one thing—to protect the US Treasury market. Yellen's rare agreement to jointly intervene in the forex market with Japan was because Japan sold US Treasuries twice in April and July, buying back yen to rescue the exchange rate market. As the largest single buyer of US Treasuries, Japan's selling would cause turmoil in the US Treasury market. The current 10-year US Treasury yield has reached a high of 4.77%, the highest since the rate cut cycle began. If Japan is left unchecked and continues to dump US Treasuries, the 10-year yield could break 5%, and the 30-year yield could break 7%, which the US government cannot tolerate. Essentially, Japan is shifting its debt pressure onto the US, so Yellen is determined to force the BOJ to raise rates at all costs.
At the just-concluded G20 global central bank meeting, Yellen told reporters she knows some BOJ ongoing developments that the market is unaware of, and the BOJ will take action soon—meaning a rate hike.
Actually, there is no need to worry about a BOJ rate hike in September because the market has already priced it in. Look at the two BOJ rate hikes this year; after each hike, the yen did not rise but fell. I believe September will likely be the same. Then Yellen will probably have to step in again to rescue the yen.
Now the global financial markets of the US dollar and US Treasuries, yen and Japanese bonds are in chaos, coupled with the continuous issuance of AI bonds totaling 1.2 trillion annually, the global financial market is fiercely competing for liquidity. This is also why the global tech sector has recently underperformed and gold has declined. So when will this liquidity crisis end? It depends on when US Treasury yields fall from their highs back below 4.5%.
The above is just a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks. This discussion revolves around multiple hot topics in the investment market, covering strategic judgments and trend analyses in areas such as crypto assets, US stocks, gold, Chinese concept stocks, and sector rotation. The speaker provided specific operational advice based on macro background and technical signals.
Crypto Asset Trends and Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy
Correlation Between Crypto and US Stocks
Crypto assets have recently risen again in sync with US stocks. If US stocks rise, crypto can follow; if US stocks fall, crypto also has room to decline. Currently, around 8, there is a bidirectional volatility space.
It is expected that from the end of this year to early next year, both crypto and US stocks may experience a downturn. However, if US stocks rise, crypto can also move upward accordingly, which does not affect the dollar-cost averaging rhythm.
Probability of Crypto Pullback and Operations
It is believed that crypto still has the possibility of a pullback but does not change the dollar-cost averaging plan.
Currently, daily dollar-cost averaging is done on three assets: the second largest, Solana, and Hyper.
View on Hyper Unlock
No particularly optimistic expectations for Hyper unlocking on September 16; hoping for a significant drop to create a buying opportunity at a low level.
Judgment on US and A-Share Market Linkage
Characteristics of the Current US Stock Trend
US stocks overall show a high-level oscillation pattern with a decent structure, but long-term valuations are relatively high, though short-term support remains.
The only issue is the long-term overvaluation, but short-term is not expensive, representing a structural contradiction.
Impact of US Stock Decline on A-Shares
If US stocks start a major decline, it may synchronously bring A-shares into a bear market, with timing possibly echoing each other.
If US stocks fall more than 30%, it is an extreme case; historically, this has happened only twice in 25 years (the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis). Other declines mostly stabilize between 10%-30%.
Fall 10%: No pressure on dollar-cost averaging
Fall 20%: Increase buying
Fall 30%: Go all out, "sell everything you have"
Possibility of Nasdaq New High
The S&P has made new highs in August-September; although the Nasdaq has not broken through, if it wants to make new highs, "it will go up in a few days."
Whether it makes new highs is no longer the focus; there are already contingency plans.
Gold and Dividend Asset Strategies
Gold Trend Judgment
Around 40 is a mid-to-low area; it has been repeatedly indicated that this position has allocation value.
There may be one more dip opportunity; falling below 40 to below 39 is even better. The previous high was 60, forming a contrast.
If there is no liquidity crisis, gold may fall less and even stabilize before US stocks, possessing some safe-haven potential.
Dividend Asset Operation Suggestions
If the dividend index is above 1.21, gradually reduce positions; the higher it rises, the more one should exit.
If it falls back to around 1.15, consider buying back some positions.
This strategy also applies to banking assets.
Semiconductor and ChiNext Operation Views
Triple Semiconductor Volatility Decline Phenomenon
Currently in a "volatility decline" phase, meaning implied volatility is decreasing, candlestick movements are flattening, and upper and lower shadows are shortening, showing continuous small amplitude fluctuations.
Similar to the previous gold volatility decline and bottoming process, there may be a rebound later, but breaking new highs will be difficult.
Whether to Participate in ChiNext
Can "try a bit," meaning short-term speculation on rebounds, but must exit promptly regardless of profit or loss.
If ChiNext dips again and then rebounds, there is upward potential, but the speaker does not participate due to personal preference.
Chinese Concept Stocks Attention Analysis
Reason for Frequent Questions on Chinese Concepts in the Circle
About 20% of members in the circle work at large tech companies (such as Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, Bilibili, Zhihu, etc.) and hold company stock options, so they must pay attention to Chinese concept stock trends.
If Chinese concept stocks truly fall to a certain low, dollar-cost averaging can be done gradually, but it is clearly reminded not to use leverage.
Japanese Economy and Exchange Rate Policy
Purpose of Japan's Interest Rate Hike
Mainly to alleviate yen depreciation pressure. In recent years, the yen has depreciated from 100 to around 160, and 1 RMB can exchange for yen from 100 to 160.
Exchange rate changes have greatly increased RMB's overseas purchasing power, explaining the large capital flows to Japan in recent years.
Long-Term View on Japanese Economy
Still believes Japan's economy itself has no major problems, but the relationship between the University of Tokyo and Japan will harden over the long term, with geopolitical struggles unlikely to improve.
From a five-year perspective, the relationship is unlikely to improve, with mutual "chokehold" risks.
Other Sectors and Asset Q&A
Stage of IGV
Clearly judged that IGV has entered the latter half.
US and Hong Kong Stock Power Issues
Not followed, unable to answer.
Attitude Toward Adding Positions During Micro Market Pullback
Clearly stated no intention to add positions.
Can Oil Price Reach 100?
Yesterday's quote was 90; believes oil price will come down but uncertain whether it will fall directly or first rise to 100 then fall; currently path is unclear.
Short Position on 7.7 Options
Suggest closing the position; the 7.7 short options can be exited.
Sectors to Invest in During September Rebound
If tech rebounds or dividends fall, tech may have rebound opportunities, but the correlation has weakened, and funds may not flow in as before.
The expected tech rebound height is not as fierce as before due to deteriorated chip structure.
Current Theme Speculation
Funds are currently concentrated in military, food, and other thematic concepts; theme speculation is normal in A-shares.
Can pay attention to the "recent multi-board" indicator; its strengthening indicates theme market activation, but currently themes are considered mostly played out.
Outlook for Nasdaq New High
S&P has made new highs in August-September; if Nasdaq wants to break through, it will be quick, but recent movement is sluggish; whether new highs occur is no longer a core concern.
Dollar-Cost Averaging Position and Community Operation Explanation
Current Dollar-Cost Averaging Position Level
Currently near 53%-54%, previously 50%, slowed due to recent market rise.
Community Renewal Attitude
Says "If you want to renew, renew; if not, forget it." Some user contracts expire at year-end; emphasizes fate is limited, no forcing.
AI Insights
The speaker uses technical terms like "volatility decline" and "synchronization" to build a market cognition framework, enhancing listeners' ability to identify trend turning points.
Repeatedly emphasizes risk control principles such as "no leverage" and "sell more as prices rise," reflecting a defensive counterattack strategy in a high-volatility environment.
Interpretation of the correlation between geopolitical issues and capital flows shows the speaker's habit of incorporating macro narratives into asset allocation logic. $BTC $XAU $SOXL BTC is barely moving. ETH is barely moving. Yet some alts are making violent moves. That can feel like altseason, but I’m not convinced. The easy detail to miss: broad altseason confirmation still isn’t there. Recent market data showed the Altcoin Season Index around 39, far below the 75 level typically used to confirm a broad altcoin rotation, while BTC dominance remained elevated. So I’m treating moves like $CHIP and $CP differently. $CHIP can give repeated swings that look predictable befor#30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for 41 consecutive days
"Steadily earning 5.2% interest for 41 days straight, the long-term bond pump has welded the ceiling on the market rebound"
The 30-year US Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 41 consecutive days, and the risk-free interest has completely welded shut the ceiling on the secondary market rebound.
In the past, large funds had to heavily invest in tech stocks or on-chain assets to pursue returns, but now, lying in ultra-long government bonds with a stable 5.2% high interest annually, naturally no one is willing to take the risk and charge in.
The rebound in energy prices combined with massive fiscal deficits has flooded the market with ultra-long-term IOUs, forcing buyers to demand higher risk compensation before they are willing to pay.
Although the Treasury has used reserve funds to initiate cash buybacks of old debt, it simply cannot fill the huge supply gap in the face of hundreds of billions of new IOUs issued each quarter.
As long as this interest pump keeps roaring at full speed, large off-market funds will not stop their transfer and lock-up actions. $BTC Brothers, this market situation is giving me goosebumps
In August, BTC surged violently by 25%, marking its best performance since 2017. Just when we thought the bull run was cooling off quickly, on the first day of September it dropped straight from 79,000 to 76,500. Historical data shows September is BTC's weakest month, with an average return of -3% to -4% — the nickname "Rektember" is well deserved #FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payrolls
What's even more twisted is that the Fed's probability of a rate hike in September has already hit 64%, US Treasury yields have soared to 4.8%, and oil prices have broken $90. Macro bears are hammering down, saying liquidity will tighten and risk assets are doomed. #Robinhood chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up
But the price just hasn't crashed. $ETH $BTC
Because on the other side, institutional bulls are buying the dip despite the bad news — last week BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $924 million, and Strategy bought another 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318. You read that right, higher than the current market price. Institutions are putting real money down to draw a bottom line.
Looking at altcoins, BTC dominance is approaching 60%, the alt season index is only 29, far below the 75 threshold — funds are simply not flowing into small coins. SOL fell below 100, ETH dropped to 2400. Most altcoins are bleeding, only a few like HYPE rose 4% against the trend. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引