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It can be made more impactful by explaining the transmission chain “Geopolitics → Oil Prices → Inflation → Interest Rate Hikes → BTC” more smoothly:
⚠️ Geopolitical conflicts are still escalating, and the pressure on $BTC actually comes from more than just “risk-off sentiment.”
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in August suddenly dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2017. Oil prices rose accordingly, with Brent surpassing $95 and WTI approaching $91.
What’s truly worth watching is this chain:
🛢️ Rising oil prices
→ 🔥 Heating inflation expectations
→ 📈 Rising interest rate hike expectations
→ 💵 Dollar/U.S. Treasury yields pressuring risk assets
→ 🟠 $BTC’s upside potential being suppressed
So this round of geopolitical risk may impact BTC more directly not through “war = risk-off,” but through energy prices → inflation → monetary policy expectations.
If oil prices keep surging, how much longer can BTC hold? 👀 If you want, I can also compress this into a version that feels more like a popular, interactive short post on OKX.#OKX预言家：European giants clash, F1 Italian Grand Prix prediction underway #SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注
$BTC $ETH
Thirty years on the east side of the river, thirty years on the west side,
Fortunes turn like a waterwheel, never underestimate the youth in poverty.
Wealth is sought in risk, but also lost in risk.
Gain happens one-tenth of the time, loss nine-tenths.
One day in crypto is like a year in the human world.
Back to the main topic, how should we view the crypto market now? Not discussing specific prices, just what the market is experiencing.
What makes this cycle different from the past is that pricing power has shifted from retail sentiment to several types of institutional funds, but their logics are not unified. On the BTC side, buyers come from two independent channels: one is spot ETFs, whose pace has shifted from aggressive buying last year to data-driven dollar-cost averaging, with advancing one day and retreating the next being normal; the other is the treasuries of listed companies like Strategy and BitMine, which convert financing into on-chain holdings weekly, ignoring daily charts and support levels, focusing only on long-term balance sheet allocation. So BTC’s current market character is—short-term pricing driven by macro expectations, mid-term supported by a chip structure of "ETF repeated buying + treasury only accumulating," making it less like a high-volatility risk asset and more like a reserve asset slowly locked into allocation pools by institutions.
One day in crypto is like a year in the human world, but where the money comes from, where it gathers, who is locking it, who is withdrawing—these slow variables are the underlying logic that holds true year after year.
$SOL BTC rose by 15,000 points, but many people's accounts actually shrank. Who is this rally really rewarding? Have you noticed that from August 17 until now, BTC climbed from 62,000 yuan all the way to a high of 81,000 yuan, then fell back to around 77,000 yuan today? Half a month covers the path of the past half, with daily gains of 1,000 points, and the candlestick chart looks textbook-like. But fewer and fewer people post profitable orders in their social circles, while more and more people lament missing out. I flipped through my trading records and discovered a somewhat painful fact. In this rally, the real profits aren't those who shout daily orders, but those who treat position management as a belief. On the surface, it looks like a BTC frenzy, but at the bottom it's a brutal position elimination battle. The faster the rise, the faster leveraged accounts die, because once volatility amplifies, any pullback could cause you to exit early. What is the market trading? I believe it is pricing in "liquidity easing expectations" and "institutional year-end allocation demands" in advance. But there is a detail that has been overlooked: during BTC's fall from 81,000 to 77,000, the decline of altcoins was generally more than twice that of BTC. This indicates that funds are not spilling over to smaller coins but rather concentrated at the top tiers. The underlying tone of this rally is risk-averse buying, not a full return of risk appetite. The bullish path is clear: - As long as the Fed maintains a dovish stance and BTC holds the 75,000 support level, the next target is likely near previous highs. - On-chain data shows whale addresses showing signs of increasing holdings in the past 48 hours, indicating long-term capital is still accumulating. Bearish sentimentLong and Short Crowding List
The biggest fear in crowding is that costs continue to rise while prices stall; the misalignment between price and position is more important than the absolute rate.
$CP current rate -0.1144%, settled -0.218% in the past 24 hours, at the 20th percentile of recent samples. Expansion of positions during a decline, selling pressure is accompanied by new positions, but open interest alone cannot confirm the short position direction. The short side pays fees, price and open interest still trending down, crowding still responsive; the signal of change is when new positions fail to push to new lows. There are only 5 settlement points in the historical sample, so the percentile is only for reference.
$EDGE current rate -0.0142%, settled -0.016% in the past 24 hours, at the 1st percentile of recent samples. Price and open interest both increased over 15 minutes, market heat is transmitting to position expansion. Negative rates did not lead to a decline; instead, there was an increase in price and positions, showing visible short-side pressure.
$USELESS current rate -0.0142%, settled -0.163% in the past 24 hours, at the 12th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions increased over 15 minutes, leverage risk exposure is increasing during this upward movement. Price and open interest rise synchronously, while the rate remains negative, this misalignment is more sensitive to shorts.This version can be adjusted to sound more like a capital flow interpretation + market sentiment judgment, with a faster pace:
$BTC spot ETFs are still seeing inflows, but the momentum... is indeed a bit lukewarm.
Yesterday, the net inflow of spot BTC ETFs was about $101 million, with BlackRock continuing to lead, contributing over $100 million alone. Institutions are still buying, that hasn't changed.
But on the other hand, Grayscale's capital flow is a bit interesting:
Mini BTC is coming in, GBTC is going out.
One side is switching vehicles, the other is getting off.
So overall, ETF funds haven't clearly retreated yet, but the incremental amount isn't particularly strong.
What’s more worth noting is:
Money is still coming in, but BTC hasn't moved much.
This indicates that the current market selling pressure remains significant, with institutional buying digesting profit-taking and portfolio rotation funds.
So don't rush to be bullish just because of ETF net inflows.
The real signal is: sustained ETF capital inflow + BTC volume breakout.
Until then, keep holding on.
Friday's non-farm payrolls are the real big test coming up. 👀
$BTC
#LastDataBeforeFOMC #ThisFridayNonFarm #GoldETF #Broadcom #SnowflakeExplosive! ETF outflows and Standard Chartered's entry happen simultaneously, BTC is experiencing its most torn moment!
On one side there's bleeding, on the other side there's accumulation. Don't be fooled by the candlestick chart.
Keep an eye on the sideways movement at 77,753, don't be confused, BTC is playing out an extreme tug-of-war between bulls and bears!
Judgment: short-term pain, mid-term great change, long-term bullish.
Don't be scared by the ETF single-day outflow of 236 million; the outflow is speculative hot money, the inflow is institutional cold wallets. Standard Chartered is the first to launch spot trading for UAE institutions, the big money channel is now open.
Why is this a buying opportunity?
1. Macro pressure is a smokescreen; the rate hike expectation is already priced in, once implemented the negative impact is fully absorbed.
2. Miner capitulation is nearing its end; after a sharp drop in hash rate, the supply flywheel often restarts.
3. Correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped to 33%, correlation with gold has risen to 50%, gold ETFs have increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, BTC has no reason to be abandoned.
Action: Don't sell at a loss, buy in batches below 77k, watch for Coinbase premium turning positive. If the CLARITY Act passes on September 15, the rocket launch will start immediately. You can hold spot, stay away from high leverage, don't fall before dawn!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% #Robinhood Chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up
Robinhood Chain's on-chain transaction volume and fees continue to explode. According to the Orbit protocol rules, 10% of net protocol revenue must flow back into the Arbitrum ecosystem: 8% goes to the DAO treasury, and 2% is used to incentivize ecosystem developers, directly igniting the real revenue narrative for ARB.
This chain is built on the Arbitrum tech stack. Recently, daily fees hit a new high, with a large amount of Meme trading driving an on-chain data explosion.
According to the revenue-sharing agreement, the prosperity of Robinhood Chain will genuinely bring cash flow to the ARB treasury. The market is beginning to reprice the value capture logic of L2 tokens, and ARB is also seeing a wave of market recovery.
In my personal view, the revenue narrative has been proven, but it's important to distinguish between annualized expectations and actual realized returns.
Once the Meme hype fades, on-chain transaction volume will quickly decline, and revenue sharing will shrink accordingly.
Although the protocol has clear revenue-sharing rules, ARB tokens themselves do not directly pay dividends; the income goes into the DAO treasury, so the impact on the token price is indirect. Do not mistake expected returns for already realized fundamentals.
In practice, one should not blindly chase the Robinhood Chain story at high prices. This is a medium-term catalyst but highly dependent on on-chain activity in the short term. Two core signals need to be tracked: whether on-chain fees can sustain high levels rather than just pulsing spikes; and how the DAO treasury funds will be used going forward. Today's topic is: After Walsh's sudden hawkish stance, a new storm window for September has opened. #从降息到加息, Fed Divides Fully Revealed$ETH Last Friday, Wash delivered his first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting after taking office. In the same passage, the three markets responded differently. Spot gold $XAUT fell 3.2%, silver $XAG dropped 4.2%. The 2-year Treasury yield surged about 12 basis points to 4.36%, the highest level since late July. #黄金ETF增持近10吨, options volatility draws attention But the 30-year Treasury yield barely moved, rising only about 1 basis point throughout the day. On the US side, the S&P 500 index fell only 0.25%, and including that day, it continued to rise for the week. In the same hawkish shock, some assets were repriced on the spot, while others acted as if nothing had happened. This split was not a coincidence on the same day. The real significance of last Friday wasn't how much gold and silver fell, but that it replayed the September distribution pattern in advance: the same shock landed, some were protected, some were pushed out. And that was just the weight of a speech. The real schedule had already been set. In the following two weeks, three things were almost simultaneously implemented. On September 9, the U.S. Treasury began expanding long-term Treasury repurchases, raising the amount from a maximum of $2 billion to at least $4 billion. In the early hours of September 17, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision. After Wash's speech, the market's probability of a rate hike in September rose from about 35% to nearly 60%.#FOMC Last Set of Data Before: Nonfarm Payrolls This Friday
Don't just watch if it will "explode," watch if it will be revised down again
At 20:30 this Friday (Beijing time), the August nonfarm payrolls will be released. This is the last complete employment data before the FOMC on September 15–16.
Remember one number first: -23,000.
July nonfarm payrolls were not "just a little bad," they directly dropped by 23,000, while the market was originally expecting about +80,000. Even worse was the downward revision: May and June combined were revised down by about 103,000. The three-month average job gains are only about 20,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, which looks like no problem.
Here's the catch.
A falling unemployment rate doesn't necessarily mean more people found jobs. In July, about 264,000 people left the labor force, and the participation rate dropped to 61.4%, near a five-and-a-half-year low. When people stop being part of the labor force, the denominator shrinks, making the unemployment rate "look better." Wages cooled further: in July, hourly wages rose only +0.1% month-over-month, about 3.2% year-over-year, no longer fueling inflation.
So don't just focus on one headline number this Friday.
The market consensus for August nonfarm payrolls is roughly +53,000 to +58,000, unemployment rate still at 4.1%, hourly wages expected to rise +0.3% month-over-month and about 3.0% year-over-year. The federal funds target range remains at 3.50%–3.75%. In July, the rate was held steady, but there were three dissenting votes wanting a 25 basis point hike. As of this week, the probability of a September rate hike is roughly around 60%, not a one-sided bet.
Three interpretations correspond to three scenarios:
1. Hot: Nonfarm payrolls clearly above 80,000, hourly wages month-over-month exceed 0.3%, unemployment rate falls. Rate hike probability pushes toward 80%, the dollar and two-year Treasury yields move first, BTC and gold short-term liquidity is drained first.
2. Warm: Around 50,000, unemployment rate unchanged. The market will likely argue first, then wait. The real decisive shot is the CPI on September 11, then the meeting on the 15–16.
3. Cold: Another negative number, or unemployment rate jumps above 4.2%. September rate hike shifts from "more likely" back to a coin toss. Risk assets may rebound, but a rebound does not equal a trend reversal; the most false breakouts happen on nights like this.
Fisherman's view in one sentence: Friday is to test the water temperature, the 15th is the high tide.
Many treat nonfarm payrolls as an opening signal, which is the easiest habit to fail at. July already taught a lesson—the headline employment was negative, but the unemployment rate fell. If you only see 4.1%, you will take the completely wrong direction.
A more stable view is to look at three sets of numbers together:
• Nonfarm payrolls (whether hiring is happening)
• Unemployment rate + participation rate (whether people found jobs or just left the labor force)
• Hourly wages (whether wages are still fueling inflation)
Only when these three align can you talk about adjusting probabilities for the FOMC. If they don't align, it's just a news item, not a position.
More directly for crypto: stablecoin settlements, withdrawal costs, weekend volatility will all follow dollar liquidity. On a night when rate hike expectations heat up, the first thing to tighten is not the story, but leverage.
The big fish haven't entered the net yet. Friday is just to see if the pond water is murky.
Do you think this Friday looks more like a "weak rebound to around 50,000," or another cold data that will immediately ease rate hike expectations?
#Nonfarm #FOMC #FederalReserve #BTC #Gold #Dollar #InterestRates #OKX $BTC $OKB ETH at $2380—are you bottom-fishing or just exiting? Let's look at the surface first: geopolitical conflicts are causing risk assets to crash together. Today's dominant factor isn't ETH chain issues, but the US and Iran fighting again. Oil prices hit $95, US Treasury yields hit 4.81%, and risk assets are pulling out together. ETH fell along with BTC, but the drop was smaller than SOL—this is good news: it fell less than others. The weekly chart is still above the breakout level, and the daily chart has already hit the lower edge of the flag. 2438 is lost; next, let's see if 2350 can hold. First thing: today's drop isn't because ETH is failing, but because macroeconomics are selling off. Main funds jumped from 1850 in August to 2550, up nearly 40%. Now it has pulled back to 2380, down less than 7%. But what truly made the market nervous were three words: another rate hike. At the September 16 FOMC, the market's pricing in a "rate hike" had already risen to 35%-68%. As soon as oil prices rose and inflation expectations heated up, the market immediately shifted the "hold in September" to "possibly raise interest rates again." Nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meetings were all packed into the first two weeks of September; ETH was not trading upgrades now, but about "whether there will be another rate hike." The second thing: staking is locked up, big players are accumulating, retail investors are cutting losses. The staking rate is 35%, 2.07 million ETH are queued to enter, waiting 36 days, and the exit queue is nearly zero. Those wanting to stake are still lining up, not wanting large-scale exits. ETF net assets are $15.2 billion, accounting for 5.2% of ETH's market capitalization, with 1.85 billion inflows in August. BitMine continues to grow$FIL $AR Which is stronger, AR coin or Filecoin? AR coin is like a boutique store, belonging to the storage project niche, while FIL coin belongs to the entire storage market.
Looking at past volatility, AR coin's gains have far exceeded FIL coin's. The reason is that AR coin has a low issuance and market cap, so a single pump can cause an explosion, whereas FIL coin faces heavy mining sell pressure and is heavily suppressed.
In the short term, AR coin is a good choice for significant gains. As for which will be stronger in the future, it's still uncertain, but from this bull market cycle, AR coin seems to outperform FIL coin. If it were you, which would you choose? The Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting is scheduled for the 17th and 18th of this month.
The market generally expects a rate hike, and with the yen's rate hike, funds will flow back into the yen. A stronger yen means that the arbitrage cost for many institutions borrowing yen to buy global assets increases. As borrowing costs rise, everyone sells assets to repay yen, which can easily create a downward spiral. Refer to the previous Black Monday when the Nasdaq dropped 3% in a single day and the crypto market fell 10%, compounded by the current AI bubble.
Previously, at the G20 summit, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responded to reporters saying, "We know information the market does not know."
"We believe the Japanese government will take effective measures."
Market institutions also generally believe that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points this month. Meanwhile, in the crypto market, the well-known market maker Wintermute continues to sell assets like $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and holds a large short position with a small number of long positions as hedges.
With all these factors combined, the US stock market may face a major correction, and the crypto market will officially enter a bear market Traditional banks are actively bringing BTC and ETH to institutional trading desks.
On September 3rd, Standard Chartered Bank announced the official launch of BTC and ETH spot trading services for institutional clients in the UAE.
I think this is more noteworthy than simply "a certain coin rising a few points."
Because this time, it’s not a crypto-native trading platform expanding its business, but a Global Systemically Important Bank (G-SIB) directly bringing spot crypto asset trading into the UAE institutional market.
I increasingly feel that the crypto story is changing.
Previously, institutions entered the market mostly through ETFs, custody, or derivatives.
Now, another path is emerging:
Banks themselves offering spot trading.
This means institutional clients may no longer need to take a long detour to access BTC and ETH.
The timing is also quite interesting.
Global bond yields have just experienced a clear upward move; the US 10-year Treasury yield once surged to 4.818%, while BTC has been oscillating around $77,000.
So I wouldn’t be outright bullish just because of this news.
In the short term, macro liquidity still acts as a restraining force on crypto.
But looking at a longer cycle, I actually think this change is very important:
BTC is gradually shifting from being a "high-risk asset on exchanges" to an asset that traditional financial institutions can trade directly. The market is currently in a strong tug-of-war state. In the short term, I assess that the US NFP + Fed expectations are more important than the individual news of each coin. If the NFP is moderately weak → the likelihood of BTC reclaiming 80,000 USD will increase. If the NFP is very strong → the risk of BTC returning to 75,700–71,800 USD will be higher.Can't hold on anymore, it should drop! #FOMC last set of data before Friday's non-farm payrolls
1. Institutional funds have already diverged: all mainstream token ETFs have seen net outflows in the past two days.
Chart 1 $BTC net outflow of 200 million on the 28th, 240 million on the 1st; Chart 2 $ETH outflow of 48 million on the 2nd; Chart 3 $SOL outflow of 6.13 million on the 2nd.
This indicates institutions are no longer so confident in the market. In other words,
2. The panic of institutions fleeing wasn't even suppressed by last night's minor non-farm payroll data: last night's minor non-farm data was below expectations, only reducing the rate hike probability from 66% to 62%.
3. There are three major macro events coming up: the non-farm payroll on the 4th, CPI on the 11th, and FOMC on the 16th. BTC may not be able to hold above 75,000 in this wave.
4. One of the signals I mentioned that could lead to a drop has already started to worsen: the short-term holders' MVRV has dropped to 1.05, close to the breakeven line. Once it falls below 1.0, short-term selling pressure will avalanche.
Luckily, I bought early, so my unrealized gains are still quite substantial. I'll hold patiently; I made a swing trade on spot last time, so I won't open shorts now, waiting to buy more at lower points.Truly living up to the 'selling shovels' mindset.
NVIDIA has teamed up with Equinix and Together AI to launch an enterprise inference service called Equinix Inference Exchange, planned to go live in Q1 2027.
Simply put, it means running AI inference in data centers worldwide, so enterprises can use models without building their own data centers, just calling them nearby.
The focus here isn’t on technology but on NVIDIA starting to find a second long-term revenue stream for GPUs. Training is a centralized, costly one-time deal; inference is distributed and steady, like utilities charged by usage. Once the chip is sold, that’s it, but inference services generate continuous monthly revenue—this business is way sexier than just selling chips.
Moreover, this approach aligns with the current trend of paid AI usage, where model calls are increasingly metered and charged per use.
Enterprises keep their data local and run inference at the edge—this demand truly exists, otherwise NVIDIA wouldn’t partner with a data center giant like Equinix.
The 'selling shovels' strategy is now evolving into collecting tolls on the way, really savvy at making money 🦧
#英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 AI capital expenditure pushes up US Treasury yields, giving BTC more of a hard asset appeal
There’s a very unusual point in today’s market: AI stocks are still being chased by capital, with names like Dell, Micron, and Nvidia performing well, but AI capital expenditure and corporate bond issuance are pushing US Treasury yields higher. It sounds like a tech stock issue, but it ultimately circles back to $BTC. Because when AI companies and large enterprises keep issuing debt, competing for capital, and pushing up long-term interest rates, the market starts to reconsider one question: how long can the debt machine within the dollar system keep rolling?
$BTC is fluctuating around $77,000 today, indeed being suppressed short-term by high interest rates. As yields rise, risk asset valuations get pressured, and BTC is affected accordingly. But in the longer term, the AI arms race means bigger capital expenditures, higher financing needs, and heavier investments in power and infrastructure, all of which keep the market focused on debt and monetary credit. BTC’s strength lies in thriving in this kind of “uncertain but increasingly costly” macro environment.
The relationship between AI and $BTC isn’t as simple as “AI hype makes BTC rise.” The real chain is: increased AI capital expenditure, increased financing pressure on companies and governments, high and volatile US Treasury yields, discussions on dollar credit and fiscal sustainability, and renewed attention on hard asset allocation. BTC, as digital gold, fits into this framework. It’s not an AI coin, but it may benefit from the macro side effects brought by AI capital expenditure.
Elon Musk’s involvement also connects here. xAI, Tesla, data centers, computing power, electricity—these terms belong to tech stocks, but mining companies also have power and data center assets. The market is likely to continue hyping the story of “mining companies turning into AI data centers.” For $BTC, this adds another layer of valuation imagination to its surrounding industry chain: not just mining, but also revaluation of power and computing assets.
For short-term trading, don’t treat this long-term story as a reason to chase today’s rally. $BTC currently looks at $75,000 support and $80,000 resistance. If $75,000 holds, the AI capital expenditure and hard asset narrative can slowly ferment; if it breaks below $75,000, the market will first cut risk exposure, no matter how good the story is, it must give way to stop-loss orders. Macro narratives can provide a floor, but a floor doesn’t mean no pullbacks.
This piece is suitable to be written a bit counterintuitively: the more money AI burns, the more reason there is to discuss BTC. Because behind AI prosperity, there’s not only growth but also capital consumption, debt issuance, energy competition, and inflation pressure. The market buys AI growth on one side and buys BTC as a hedge on the other; this is not a contradiction but two sides of the same dollar liquidity logic.
Of course, $BTC is not an all-powerful hedge. If US Treasury yields continue to surge uncontrollably, all high-volatility assets will be drained short-term, including BTC. The ideal environment is high but controlled yields, dollar credit questioned but liquidity intact. This narrow space is where BTC feels most comfortable.
So the conclusion of today’s piece can be summarized like this: AI is responsible for creating growth illusions and debt pressure; $BTC is responsible for carrying people’s doubts about monetary credit. Don’t just look at the few hundred dollars of K-line fluctuations; the real story lies behind capital expenditure and interest rates. Understanding this line explains why BTC neither falls deeply nor rises sharply.
More directly, the hotter the AI sector, the more the market watches US Treasuries; the higher the Treasuries, the more short-term pressure on BTC; but the more debt and inflation discussions, the more long-term narrative for BTC. This tangled relationship is exactly why today’s market is hard to trade. Writing about $BTC must expose this contradiction so readers feel it’s not an ordinary review but something that helps them judge their positions.
The short-term risk is that if the market suddenly shifts from “AI growth” to “AI money burn,” both tech stocks and crypto assets will be cut in valuation together. $BTC is not completely immune; it just has more capital support than many altcoins. $75,000 remains the defensive line for this narrative; holding it allows the hard asset story to develop slowly, breaking it means respecting risk release first.
Therefore, today’s AI and BTC connection should not be written as just riding a hot topic but as a macro chain. AI needs money, money pushes up interest rates, rates pressure assets, debt anxiety supports BTC. The clearer this cycle, the easier it is to write in-depth $BTC articles and the more likely to retain readers.It can be adjusted to have more of a **"data foresight + crypto community interaction" feel, and make the term "rate cut" more precise — the current market is actually trading the risk of a September rate hike**, so a weak non-farm payroll doesn't necessarily mean just "full rate cut expectations," the core is actually a reduction in rate hike expectations.
Brothers, the non-farm payroll is coming this Friday! ⚠️
This is one of the most critical employment data points before the September FOMC, and the market is waiting for this hammer to set the direction.
Recent employment data has shown signs of cooling, with August ADP adding only 38,000 jobs, below expectations; and July non-farm payroll even recorded -23,000.
So this non-farm payroll is especially crucial:
📉 Employment clearly weakens → rate hike expectations cool down → USD/US Treasury yields come under pressure → $BTC $ETH are expected to see a wave of risk appetite recovery
📈 Employment stronger than expected → rate hike concerns reheat → USD strengthens → crypto market continues to be under pressure
Moreover, the market pricing for a September rate hike is already high, so the non-farm payroll is likely to amplify volatility directly.
So on Friday, don’t just focus on the non-farm payroll number itself; unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions to previous data are equally important.
Next, let's go through the top 30 popular coins one by one:
Who is waiting for a macro rebound?
Who has already weakened in advance?
Who really has substance, and who is just swimming naked? 👀
Once the non-farm payroll hammer falls, the answers will naturally come out.
#BTC #ETH #NonFarmPayroll #FOMC21 Banks Jointly Launch Stablecoin, Is USDT's "Throne" Shaken?
On September 1, 21 giants including Goldman Sachs, Citibank, and Deutsche Bank announced the joint establishment of a joint venture, planning to launch a US dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027, and gradually expand to G7 currencies such as the euro. The goal directly targets cross-border payments, institutional clearing, and digital asset settlement. Currently, the global stablecoin market exceeds $301 billion, with USDT alone holding $183.3 billion, USDC about $73.3 billion—the banking alliance is clearly not here just to "observe."
Why gather now? Three driving forces: 1. The "GENIUS Act" takes effect in January 2027, bringing stablecoin issuance under bank-level regulation, making compliance thresholds a natural barrier for banks; 2. Stablecoins are "draining" bank deposits, with Standard Chartered estimating a loss of up to $500 billion, so banks must use "their own coins" to retain capital flow; 3. Societe Generale's meager circulation of 12.5 million proves that going it alone doesn't work, and only an alliance can counter the liquidity moat of crypto-native giants.
Will USDT collapse? Not in the short term. Its foundation lies in exchange trading pairs, emerging market settlements, and 24-hour entry and exit convenience, which these bank coins cannot easily replicate in the short term. But the market will inevitably stratify: the compliance layer (cross-border, institutional) will be eroded by bank coins, USDC, and USAT; the offshore crypto layer will still be dominated by USDT.
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🇺🇸 The US is shouting about becoming the "crypto capital," so why isn't the market rising?
Today's market situation is quite interesting.
The policy side is clearly leaning positive.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated that the CLARITY Act is expected to advance in September, with the Senate planning a related vote on September 15. The core of this bill is to further clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, establishing clearer rules for the digital asset market.
Logically, this kind of news should stimulate the market.
But here’s the problem:
BTC hasn't risen much, and ETH is actually under more pressure.
It seems that funds are not immediately choosing to heavily enter the market just because of a long-term positive outlook.
Some interesting actions can also be seen on-chain.
Garrett Jin just closed a long position of 276 BTC, profiting about $210,000, and currently still holds about 1592 BTC.
So I prefer to interpret this as:
Not bearish, but taking profits along the way.
This is actually the biggest contradiction in the market right now:
Policies are becoming friendlier, but funds have not fully followed.
The CLARITY Act addresses long-term regulatory issues.
But whether BTC can truly break through $80,000 in the short term ultimately depends on:
Whether ETFs have sustained net inflows,
How macro liquidity is,
And whether spot buying is strong enough.
Policies can open the door.
But what really pushes the price up is real money.
So I won’t be outright bullish just because of one positive news.
News is the catalyst; funds are the engine.
Without funds to take over, even the biggest positive news can turn into:
Exciting news, but calm candlesticks. 😂
$BTC $ETH
⟡ Observe and act
⟡ Trade with restraint
⟡ Trade without attachment
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.Here's a version with stronger market sentiment + data impact + interactivity:
$ETH fell below 2400, marking a third consecutive day of decline📉
This wave of bulls is really struggling.
Big brother Maji's Ethereum long position dropped below $100 million, with an overall unrealized loss exceeding $1.1 million, clearly getting a harsh lesson from the market.
Even more noteworthy is the funding side:
📉 ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $48.08 million yesterday, ending a 12-day streak of net inflows.
📉 Liquidations in the last 24 hours totaled about $50.21 million, with longs at $30.65 million and shorts at $19.55 million.
ETH's current sentiment is clearly bearish. Although trading volume has picked up, after losing 2400, it's hard for the short term to continue sideways consolidation.
Next, watch for two directions:
🔥 Can it reclaim 2400, or even launch a counterattack toward 2500?
📉 If 2400 remains a resistance, the next step might be to look for lower support.
Bulls holding long positions must be feeling pretty rough right now.
What do you think about $ETH — is this a shakeout before a rebound, or is the downtrend not over yet?👀
#ETH #EthereumHere's a more concise, high-engagement trading viewpoint version tailored for OKX / X, keeping the core logic but less lengthy:
$CL short crude oil: Supply opens the floodgates, demand cools down, is the rebound an opportunity?
The current crude oil structure resembles the weak consolidation after $BTC broke key support:
📉 Highs keep moving lower, rebounds get weaker.
On the supply side, OPEC+ is increasing production, US shale oil remains high, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana continue to ramp up output, adding supply pressure.
Demand side is also not optimistic:
🇨🇳 China’s demand is under pressure
🇺🇸 US driving season is nearing its end
🇪🇺 Europe’s economy is weak
Global manufacturing demand lacks clear growth.
Looking at inventories and term structure, if inventories keep accumulating and the distant month premium widens, these are bearish signals for shorts.
My trading approach:
👉 WTI: Consider shorting on rebounds near 69–70, stop loss above 71, target around 65
👉 Brent: Consider shorting near 73–74, stop loss at 75.5, target around 68
Of course, the biggest variables for crude remain OPEC cuts + Middle East geopolitical risks.
So don’t chase shorts, wait for the rebound.
Do you think this crude move is a trend reversal or just a pure geopolitical premium play? 👀
$CLAnthropic continues to ramp up computing power procurement; before the IPO, the story to watch is not revenue, but cost.
AI companies are best at telling growth stories: stronger models, more customers, bigger scenarios. But the truly scary numbers lie elsewhere—training costs money, inference costs money, chip leasing and cloud contracts also cost money. The closer to going public, the more the market will ask a very practical question: are these revenues largely eaten up by computing power costs?
I think if Anthropic's prospectus is made public, its most valuable aspect won't be the valuation, but whether it can let outsiders clearly see its unit economics model.
AI companies are not lacking faith now; what they lack is a profit roadmap that reassures people. Without this roadmap, no matter how impressive the growth curve is, it will make people uneasy.
#Anthropic算力采购加码，IPO成本受关注 🚨 $CORE Collapse Countdown: Is the Hard Fork the Final Straw?
Core DAO’s emergency hard fork, triggered by validator reward issues, looks less like an upgrade and more like a patch for deeper consensus problems.
The bigger concern: excess $CORE won’t be burned, leaving the added supply in circulation.
No strong buying pressure, limited liquidity, and exchange suspensions could make the next supply release painful#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue 1. Tonight's initial claims are just a warm-up with limited volatility, no need to heavily speculate; the real high volatility window is tomorrow night at 20:30 with the non-farm payrolls.
2. When the data is released, watch the sequence of three items: average hourly earnings → new jobs added + previous value revisions → unemployment rate. Don't just focus on the headline new numbers.
3. In the first 15-30 minutes after release, there is a high probability of two-way spikes and explosive bilateral leverage; many algorithmic fake moves, so don't chase the first wave, wait for secondary confirmation.
4. The current range itself is oscillating between 76k-80k; the non-farm payrolls are more likely to amplify the range volatility rather than directly trigger a one-sided big trend; the real trend-changing expectations depend on the subsequent CPI.
Therefore, for short-term operations from now until tomorrow night, a prudent approach is to stay out and observe. If you must trade, you can short near 79,000 and go long near 76,000, always with light positions, strictly set stop losses, and manage risk well! #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH Take it, first see when 75600 arrives.
The stop loss is near 79600, and there is an opportunity to add positions near 79000.
Around 75500, you can consider a short-term long, but ideally, the 71800 Fibonacci retracement level is still the best pattern choice.
Oil price is 90+, long-term interest rates remain high, employment is cooling down, but inflation as the highest priority will still suppress risk assets.
Currently, only $BTC short positions and one $SKHYNIX long position.
The trend logic of crypto and storage is not quite the same; while liquidity is sensitive, the positive earnings outlook for storage remains unchanged.
Recently, not paying attention to SanDisk.
Focus on DRAM, the logic is actually stronger. Wait a bit longer for NAND.
The tactical position can be exited first, waiting quietly for the non-farm payroll.
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's non-farm payroll Net outflow has finally stopped!
113 days, watching stablecoins flow out every day
People are numb to it
On September 1st, the reading turned positive
Over ten million USD
Sounds like a lot
But it was cut in half the next day
This is not inflow
This is just the outflow stopping
SSR has fallen from the high point
Purchasing power has recovered a bit
But still far from normal
I don't believe this is the start of a rise
At most, it means no more bleeding
The real money hasn't come back yet
Wait until it turns positive for several consecutive weeks
If you rush in now
You're just feeding the market makers again
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $BTC Why did both of these assets first form two consistent horizontal high points, then on the third attempt, useless directly broke through, and the daily chart has risen 110% so far, while mubark just touched the high point and dropped immediately? 1. For useless, at the high point, there is a four-timeframe resonance across 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. The daily close is a bullish candle at this level, and at the corresponding time, the 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute charts also closed bullish at this resistance line. For mubarak, only the 10:00 1-hour and 15-minute charts resonate with bullish closes at the resistance point. There is no 4-hour or daily resonance. 2. Structure. Useless formed a horizontal consolidation structure very close to the resistance area. Mubarak did not form a horizontal consolidation, only a gradual bearish rise pattern. However, it is important to note that mubarak's failure to break through this time does not mean it is doomed. We need to see if it will continue horizontal consolidation and then break upward. That upward breakout would also be a very good entry point. Another characteristic is that during useless's horizontal consolidation, it formed a W pattern where the right bottom is higher than the left bottom.Core Insights Summary of the Bull Market
80% of the bull market phase is a struggle; truly easy profits are rare.
April 2025 was the darkest moment for Ethereum. While Bitcoin only dropped 30%, Ethereum plummeted 60% to complete its bottoming. In early May, Ethereum rebounded with three consecutive large bullish candles to 2800 points, then entered a two-month sideways phase. However, the market generally regarded this as a normal rebound, with no one optimistic about a trend reversal.
At the end of the consolidation, Ethereum briefly faked a breakdown to 2100 points, pushing market pessimism to the max. Most believed the bear market was returning. Yet the price immediately reversed against the trend, rising to 3900 points, with market divergence still huge. Throughout this rally, caution prevailed; bears continuously opened short positions against the trend, never stopping even after repeated liquidations. In early August, Ethereum corrected to 3400 points, and combined with past experience of topping at 4000 points, many investors panicked and exited.
Now Bitcoin has risen from 60,000 to 80,000 but is stuck in a frustrating consolidation. Market sentiment is scattered: some await a deep correction, some hold firm to buy the dip, others watch for the cycle bottom. Even small price fluctuations trigger collective panic, which is the norm in a bull market.
Bull markets are always accompanied by divergence and noise, with bulls and bears battling, news causing volatile ups and downs, and sudden positive or negative events quickly losing impact. Yet these constantly disrupt investors’ judgment, causing frequent swing trades and premature exits.
Bull market launches never follow logic. In October 2023, the macro environment was extremely poor and did not meet bull market conditions, yet the rally quietly began. Therefore, during the mid-stage of a bull market, frequent trading is unnecessary; the best strategy is to settle in, stay low-profile, and control your impulses Brothers! Let's talk about this Friday's non-farm payrolls. Before the Fed's next meeting (FOMC), this is the last hardcore data release, so the whole market is watching it even more closely than usual. Non-farm payrolls are basically a health check report on the U.S. employment market, released on the first Friday evening of every month (at 8:30 or 9:30 PM Beijing time, depending on daylight saving). It mainly looks at three numbers: new non-farm employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage growth. Once these three numbers come out, the market immediately goes into a frenzy.
Why is this non-farm payrolls so critical? Because the Fed right now is like a hesitant driver, foot hovering between the brake and the gas pedal, unsure which to press. Inflation data has been sticky lately—not falling but not surging either; if employment data remains strong, the Fed has no reason to rush rate cuts and might even turn more hawkish; if employment suddenly cools off, rate cut expectations heat up, and the market can rally. So this non-farm payrolls release is the last puzzle piece for the Fed to decide which way to steer.
So how will the market react after Friday's non-farm payrolls? Let's break it down into three scenarios.
First, if the data greatly exceeds expectations, for example, new jobs exceed 200,000, unemployment rate drops, and wages rise sharply. Then it's over: the dollar index will definitely surge, U.S. Treasury yields will jump, gold will take a hit first, U.S. stocks might open lower because "good economy = Fed not rushing to ease = higher rates stay longer." In the crypto space, $BTC will most likely pull back along with risk assets, altcoins will suffer even more because liquidity... I'm dumbfounded!
I'm dumbfounded!
I'm dumbfounded, brothers!
One long position and one short position, both sides are losing.
The long at 2415 is floating with nearly a 50-point loss, and the short at 2350 hasn't made much profit either.
Honestly, I don't even know how I got into this situation. Looking at the account, I want to laugh at myself.
Long on the left hand, short on the right, getting hit from both sides, like a fool being rubbed back and forth around the 2400 level.
But I haven't closed out.
It's not that I don't want to exit, I just feel something's off.
Think about it, bad news keeps coming one after another: Fed hawkish speeches, US-Iran conflicts, whales dumping, institutions clearing altcoins—weren't these all previously enough to crash the market?
But $ETH only dropped to 2356 at the lowest, never even touched 2350, then bounced back near 2400.
Why can't it be pushed down?
I stared at the market all day thinking.
Either big money is accumulating below, or the shorts no longer dare to push it down further.
A position that even $400 million can't move—if they try a fourth time, can they still push it down?
Moreover, the data: if ETH falls below 2294, long liquidations are only 627 million.
But if ETH breaks 2531, short liquidations reach 1.277 billion, double the amount.
Once shorts get squeezed, the stampede will be much fiercer than expected.
Bad news can't push it down, yet shorts keep piling up.
So even though both sides are losing, I don't plan to move.
The direction hasn't changed, the logic hasn't changed, all that's left is to wait.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the final test. Once the bad news is exhausted, only upward movement remains.
$BTC
$DOGE
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 ETH's streak of 12 consecutive days of ETF inflows has ended, and XRP's 11-day continuous inflow also stopped on the same day. More unusually, BTC ETF turned to net inflows on that day.
On September 2, the US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $48.08 million, ending a 12-day streak of cumulative inflows totaling approximately $1.62 billion. The XRP ETF also saw a net outflow of about $7.2 million on the same day, ending 11 consecutive trading days of inflows.
However, the BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $101.2 million, exactly reversing the previous day's net outflow of $236.5 million. This looks like funds moving from altcoin ETFs back to BTC, but one day's data is not enough to confirm rotation.
Not all funds within the same asset class are withdrawing. BlackRock's ETHA had a net outflow of about $53.4 million, while its staked ETH ETF ETHB had a net inflow of about $53 million. The "ETH fund outflow" in the headline masks portfolio rebalancing between products.
What to watch next is not just the red or green of a single day, but whether the second and third trading days continue to show the combination of BTC inflows and ETH and XRP outflows. If it quickly reverses, it's just rebalancing; if it continues, it more likely indicates institutional preference is contracting.
Open $BTC and $ETH to check real-time trading volume. Do you think this is just a single-day rebalancing, or that institutional funds are starting to shift back toward BTC? Wall Street delivered a lesson this week that every AI investor should sit with: being part of the AI trade isn't enough anymore. The market wants proof that growth is speeding up, not just showing up. $AVGO: A Monster Quarter That Still Wasn't Monster Enough Broadcom's numbers were, by almost any measure, extraordinary. Total revenue jumped 86% year-over-year to $29.6 billion, topping Wall Street's forecast. AI semiconductor sales more than tripled, up 221% to $16.7 billion. Adjusted earnings oBrothers, looking again at the US stock market pre-market tonight, this market is actually quite conflicted 😂
Currently, US stock futures are generally stable, Nasdaq futures are slightly up, mainly because tech stocks have recovered in the past couple of days, with Nvidia once again becoming the emotional engine of the AI sector. Recently, market confidence in Nvidia's AI customer expansion and AI computing power demand is returning, so the AI theme hasn't deteriorated for now.
But here I have to pour cold water: although Broadcom's earnings report was good, its guidance did not fully meet the market's expectation that "AI must continue to explode," and its pre-market stock price was under pressure. This shows that the AI sector is no longer "just talk AI and it rises," but is starting to truly test orders, capital expenditures, and future guidance.
So tonight, I won't be too pessimistic, but I also won't blindly chase highs. If Nvidia, AI, and semiconductors continue to be strong, Nasdaq has a chance to continue its recovery; but once tech stocks surge and then fall back, risk assets like $BTC and $ETH are also likely to be dragged down.
The most critical is tomorrow's US August nonfarm payrolls; the market is now waiting for this big test. Recent employment data has clearly been weak, and the Fed's September rate hike expectations have been pushed back up to about 60%.
So my judgment tonight is simple: US stocks are biased bullish on AI recovery, but don't get carried away; BTC/ETH continue to look for consolidation, and the real big direction awaits the nonfarm payrolls for an answer. In this market, no one should pretend they can predict precisely, even the big players might not know where the next candlestick will go 😂 $SNDK $NVDA #Last data before FOMC: this Friday's nonfarm payrolls. $BTC has pulled back, but has the capital really exited?
BTC has fallen back to around $77,000, with market sentiment clearly cooling down. The fear and greed index has dropped to 58, still in the greed zone. But one detail is worth noting: while BTC ETFs have recently seen net outflows, ETH ETFs have maintained inflows for several consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA net inflow exceeding $71 million last week.
This looks more like a rotation of funds rather than a full retreat.
Previously, $BTC pushed from around $70,000 to above $80,000, so profit-taking is normal. What’s truly worth watching is whether BTC outflows continue and whether ETH can keep absorbing this liquidity. If funds remain in the crypto market but just switch the main focus, then the market is likely just taking a mid-game break rather than ending.
Data shows Ethereum's inflation rate dropped to 0.45% in July, with network activity remaining active. Once ETH effectively holds above the 2400 level, it could be a technical signal attracting capital rotation.
Is this a sign of reduced risk or the start of a main trend switch? The answer might lie in the capital flow after the non-farm payroll release. Stay closely tuned and remain flexible.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Friday 20:30, the real big shock is coming: BTC at 77,000, waiting for the non-farm payroll to decide life or death
The most critical employment report before the FOMC is about to be revealed, and the current contradiction is very extreme:
Employment is cooling down, but inflation refuses to drop.
August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, below the expected 48,000, showing a clear slowdown in hiring; but July core PCE remains as high as 3.3%, and Walsh further pointed out that 54% of the items in the PCE basket have year-on-year increases exceeding 3%, indicating price pressures are far from relieved.
Therefore, the market still assigns about a 60%—63% probability of a rate hike in September.
On Friday, there are three scenarios to watch:
**Non-farm payroll significantly stronger than 58,000:** Hawkish logic strengthens, BTC defends 75,000 or even 72,000;
**Close to expectations:** Rate hike uncertainty continues, 76,000—80,000 range sees repeated tug-of-war;
**Significantly below expectations and wage cooling:** Rate hike bets may quickly fade, giving BTC a chance to challenge 80,000 again.
What truly determines the market is not whether the non-farm payroll is good or bad, but whether it can overturn the rate hike scenario the market has already priced in. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 One-sentence conclusion: Today is TRIIA's planned unlock day (about 90.17 million tokens released, accounting for 0.9% of total supply, about 4% of circulation)—so what happened? The price sideways above 0.0036 for a day, now at 0.00374, but daily trading volume has shrunk by about 73% compared to yesterday. The expected negative news has arrived, but the market is "unable to break down": the $0.00357-0.00362 range has been tested three times without breaking (9/1, 9/2, 9/3), and bears failed to capitalize on the unlock day to hit new lows. But don't rush to call for bottoms—the rebound is equally weak, and TRIA seems to have fallen into a liquidity-no-man's land with no one dumping or rushing to buy. Today's review: The "calm" on the unlock day is news in itself. Let's break down the past three days (OKX Perpetual Daily Chart): • 9/1: Inertia bearish decline -4%, touched $0.003618 intraday, hitting a historic low at the time; • 9/2: Continued grinding, lowest **0.003571** (new record low), closed at 0.003715, -4.2%; • 9/3 (today, unlock day): low 0.00361 again unbroken, high touched 0.00386 but pulled back again, current quote $0.00374 — basically flat in place. Three details worth noting: 1. **Three tests of the 0.0036 area, no bears gained**: 9/1 touched 0.003618, 9/2 inserted pin 0.003571 (a record low during the session) but closedEarlier, people were shouting that the US was finally going to set rules for the crypto market. Now, the prediction market has poured a bucket of cold water on that. The probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 has dropped to about 15% $BTC $ETH. So what exactly is this act? Simply put, it's the market structure bill that the US crypto community has been hoping for a long time. The core is to clearly define the responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC— which coins fall under SEC jurisdiction and which digital assets fall under CFTC jurisdiction—providing exchanges and DeFi with a set of federal-level rules of the game. The House of Representatives passed it early on, but it got stuck in the Senate. Why the sharp drop in probability? Because the Senate needs 60 votes, and the Republicans don't have enough votes; they need some Democrats to defect. Both sides are stuck on several deadlocks: whether public officials can trade crypto, stablecoin reward clauses, banking interests conflicts—these issues can't be resolved. Congress has very little working time left, and the voting window is especially narrow. Isn't this just a joke? Not long ago, everyone thought it was done. Now you hit the brakes, like going to the civil affairs bureau to get a marriage certificate—rings bought, banquet booked, social media posts done—and the staff says, "Don't rush, we still need internal discussions." The market had already priced in clear regulatory expectations. If it keeps dragging on or fails outright this year, projects that rely on regulatory implementation to tell their story will probably have to recalculate. The 15% is the probability from the prediction market, not a total death sentence—just that the hope for implementation by 2026 is slim. The act can be amended and brought back for debate by the new Congress next year. #FOMC last batch beforeHistorically, BTC averages -3% in September, known as Rektember.
This year's script is more complete:
August first rallies 25% to give hope,
September then takes that hope away with geopolitical issues + treasury sell-offs + small ETF outflows.
Currently stuck at 76.3k–77.8k, as if waiting for the nonfarm payrolls and FOMC to deliver their verdict together.#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Dell's big bullish candle hasn't even been digested yet, and Broadcom and Snowflake have already reported.
These two earnings reports point in the same direction—AI demand is spreading downstream from the hardware layer. Dell sells servers, Broadcom sells network chips, Snowflake sells data cloud. From computing power to data, the entire chain is growing.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold. The narrative is spreading; AI demand extending to servers and data cloud is an indirect positive for AI tracks and DePIN projects in crypto. Risk appetite is stabilizing, the profitability quality of tech stocks is being continuously validated, and crypto, as a high-beta asset, will not lack its own narrative space as long as the macro environment doesn't collapse.
Here’s my view. Broadcom's guidance missing expectations and being hit indicates the market's pricing of AI has moved from "whether there is demand" to "whether the realization speed is fast enough." Snowflake's 21% rise shows AI revenue on the software side is accelerating. For projects with real business support, the direction is clearer.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH High oil prices, high interest rates. The Fed's stance remains focused on the 2% inflation target. The pricing of risk assets should face sustained pressure. However, it seems Americans have now gotten used to the high yields on U.S. Treasuries. It's unclear when the market will refocus its attention on U.S. Treasury yields. $BTC Yesterday, the third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve and President of the New York Fed, Williams, unexpectedly appeared in an exclusive CNBC interview, cooling down the U.S. Treasury market a bit. His core message conveyed several points: recent inflation data shows encouraging signs of decline, overall still in a slow downward trend; the current interest rate level is in a "good position," balancing employment and prices; as for whether to raise rates in September, it depends on upcoming data, and no conclusion has been made yet. Why was this unexpected? Because normally, official speeches by Federal Reserve officials are posted 3-7 days in advance on the respective Fed's official website schedule, with clear details on time, place, and topic, as prearranged official duties that ordinary retail investors can check ahead of time. But tonight's event was a live TV interview, not part of the official speech series. Such interviews are usually scheduled only 1-3 days in advance and only briefly announced on professional paid financial terminals, not appearing on the Fed's public calendar. Retail investors who usually check free financial schedules generally cannot find it, so it feels like a "sudden, last-minute speech." Williams' remarks this time were clearly aimed at the U.S. Treasury market because the New York Fed he oversees is responsible for Treasury market operations and is the FOMC official most focused on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries. After his speech, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.83% to 4.76% at one point. However, Williams' remarks were typical hedging language, neither promising interest rate commitments nor ruling out rate hikes if inflation does not follow expectations. Such speeches are generally used to moderate extreme market moves.Everyone is waiting for 8:30 PM tomorrow night, but I always feel that the real focus of this non-farm payroll report isn't just the headline number.
In the past, everyone rushed to look at the new jobs added, but now I just want to wait for the data to come out and pay attention to the often overlooked "revisions" section. The last time already revealed a lot: July's new jobs were directly revised down to negative, and May and June combined were cut by more than 100,000. In other words, the initial numbers from the statistics bureau were just guesses, and they quietly revised them later. This kind of after-the-fact adjustment is much more honest than the cold initial figures on the day.
So even if the new jobs number looks pretty good tomorrow night, don't get too excited too quickly. If the previous two months get revised down again, it means the US labor market isn't as strong as the initial data suggests. Jumping in just by looking at the headline can easily lead to getting the direction wrong.
For BTC, this matter isn't that simple either. If employment cools down, the rate hike pressure can ease, which should be good for risk assets. But if it cools too much and the market starts worrying about a recession, highly volatile assets like Bitcoin are often the first to be sold off. Whether it's bullish or bearish really depends on which story the market chooses to tell at that moment.
I will also take a look at wage growth. Only if wage increases cool down along with employment does it indicate that inflation is truly retreating; otherwise, just looking at employment numbers doesn't tell the whole story.
And don't forget, this is just the last non-farm payroll report before the rate decision, with CPI still waiting in line. Even if the direction tomorrow night is right, don't rush to go all in and lie flat; there are still many uncertainties ahead. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The start of September has diluted much of the good mood from August. At the beginning of the month, geopolitical tensions suddenly surged, oil prices surged above $90, US Treasury yields rose to 4.81%, and Bitcoin immediately retreated from its high, briefly dropping below $77,000. CoinGlass's historical statistics show an average decline of about 3% in September, with only five gains, earning it the nickname "Rektember." Macro pressures combined with seasonal weakness naturally lead to cautious market sentiment. 📉 However, a closer look at the structure does not warrant overly pessimism. The $73,000 to $75,000 range is widely seen as a strong support zone; as long as spot ETF funds do not continue to see significant outflows, after shakeout and consolidation, the market still aims to move toward the $92,000 to $100,000 range. The real key moment is the September 15 policy meeting, with a current rate hike probability of about 66%. This outcome will directly determine the direction of liquidity logic. If rates remain unchanged, long-suppressed buying pressure may quickly be filled. Sector divergence is also worth noting. SOL rose over 40% in August, and after the deflation proposal passed, an upgrade is imminent. If it can hold between $98 and $100, the next target may be $117. HYPE performed even stronger, rising 4% against the trend during Bitcoin pullbacks, with a cumulative 230% increase this year. After being included in the Nasdaq index, whale accounts continue to buy, and its buyback and burn mechanism provides some support for the price. ETH is awaiting a bill vote, with valuations still at relatively low levels. ✨ The market always breeds reversals amid extreme sentiment and remains patientThe world's largest gold ETF increased its holdings by nearly 10 tons in one go yesterday, bringing its position back above 1,056 tons. A single-day inflow of 9.984 tons—the last time we saw such a large volume was during the July surge of gold $XAU to 4600. Behind this is the weaker-than-expected August ADP employment data, which slightly eased rate hike expectations, allowing gold to rebound. The Dutch central bank also made moves. From March to August this year, they moved 86 tons of gold froIran has started directly attacking the US military base in Kuwait,
Has the conflict crossed another line?
Iran recently claimed that missiles and drones have targeted
the Ali Al Salem US Air Force base in Kuwait.
Kuwait's air defense system activated interceptions for the second consecutive night, and a US-related residential area was also hit by a drone and caught fire.
Here it is important to distinguish: Iran claims to have hit the base and caused US military losses, but the US's preliminary assessment so far is that there are no casualties, and the exact damage to the base has not yet been fully confirmed.
What the market should really be wary of is the scope of the attacks.
Previously, the main conflict was the US striking Iran and Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz; now Iran is expanding its retaliation to countries hosting US troops such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq.
This means the risk is spreading from a "war on Iranian soil" to the entire Gulf military base network.
However, crude oil prices slightly retreated today, with Brent around $95.2 and WTI around $90.8.
The reason is simple: while the market is pricing in regional war risk premiums, it has also seen no confirmed new large-scale US-Iran clashes in the past few hours, and Trump has said the new round of actions will not last long.
So there are now two completely different scenarios:
If Iran continues to attack US military bases, even affecting refineries, ports, and energy export facilities, the risk of oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase, and inflation and Federal Reserve pressure will continue to transmit to BTC.
#OKX预言家：欧洲豪门交锋，F1意大利站预测进行中 The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note intraday reached a high of 4.814%, marking a new peak since November 2023. The market is repricing the prolonged cycle of high interest rates and the long-term fiscal risks of the United States.
There are three main drivers behind the recent rise in long-term rates: first, Middle East tensions have disturbed oil prices, increasing the risk of inflation rebound and limiting the Federal Reserve's room for future rate cuts; second, the US fiscal deficit remains high with ample long-term debt supply, prompting the market to demand a higher term risk premium; third, economic divergence with weakness supports easing, but high inflation and high debt constrain easing space, causing long-term rates to rise first.
The impact on capital markets is clear: US Treasury yields are the global core valuation anchor, and rising rates directly increase funding costs. In the US stock market, high-valuation growth stocks such as AI chips, cloud computing, and software are under significant pressure, with future earnings discounted more heavily, increasing valuation compression.
Gold's trend shows a complex divergence: traditionally, rising rates suppress gold prices, but the current market focuses more on US Treasury debt risk and geopolitical safe-haven attributes, offsetting the negative impact of rates. Therefore, gold prices remain relatively resilient and have not weakened.
Overall, the world has entered a phase of repricing high interest rates, and valuation pressure on risk assets persists. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 The interesting part isn’t the bounce. It’s what each coin is fighting underneath it. $ACE /USDT is the highest-risk setup. ACE has an unlock scheduled for September 3, while another larger monthly release is scheduled for September 18. That makes chasing a spike dangerous. At $0.18456, I’d watch $0.185–$0.19 first. Reclaim and hold → momentum can continue. Lose $0.175 → I’d step aside. $XRP /USDT looks different. XRP ETF demand has stayed surprisingly strong, with 11 consecutive sessions of inMacro Background: Dual Impact of US-Iran Conflict + Interest Rate Hike Expectations
US-Iran conflict continues to escalate — the greatest geopolitical risk
After the US military expanded strikes against Iran on September 1, BTC quickly dropped from above $79,000 to $77,200, a decline of up to 2.1%. Direct clashes between the US and Iran resumed, pushing Brent crude oil above $90.50, while the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 4.8%.
Interest rate hike expectations loom — the biggest macroeconomic headwind
Following the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged from 35% to nearly 60%-65%. Traders generally believe that a slowdown in employment is insufficient to change the main expectation of a September rate hike; if employment performs better than expected, a September hike will be almost certain.
Friday's nonfarm payroll data — the biggest variable this week
ADP employment data weakened, but inflation remains the Federal Reserve's primary concern. Even if nonfarm payrolls weaken, a rate hike cannot be completely ruled out. Polymarket contracts still reflect a considerable probability of a September rate hike. The downside risk protection range is between $68,000 and $75,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 BTC holding near $77,837 while ETH and SOL lag its daily gain suggests this is still a selective risk bid, not a broad crypto breakout. I would treat the move as cautious positioning into the last NFP before the FOMC, with macro sensitivity still in control.
Gold ETF inflows and weak crude add to the defensive backdrop. Until participation widens beyond BTC, durability matters more than headline momentum, and stronger #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue