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Short $ETH near 2510, focus on the non-farm payrolls tonight!
The logic is not blindly bearish, but rather testing short-term trades stuck at the resistance zone above 2500. After ETH's rebound to this point, volume and structure have not fully confirmed a breakout; 2520-2550 is a more critical boundary between bulls and bears. If it can't hold above, treat it as a rebound.
The real driver is the US August non-farm payrolls at 20:30 Beijing time.
The market expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%; the preceding ADP only added 38,000, and July's non-farm payrolls were revised down, indicating employment isn't that strong. If the data is weaker than expected, the market will reprice "cooling employment leading to a Fed pivot," and risk assets may rally first; if employment is stronger and unemployment doesn't rise, rate cut expectations will continue to be suppressed, the dollar and US bonds will rise, and ETH will face short-term pressure.
My approach: hold short positions below 2500 and observe, look for the first pullback around 2470-2450; if volume surges and it stabilizes above 2520, admit the short position was wrong and don't stubbornly hold on. Don't chase a single candle after the data comes out; wait for the first wave of volatility to settle. Position size and stop loss are more important than direction.
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#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Bitcoin's rebound this round has clearly strengthened. On September 3rd, BTC briefly surged to about $81,800 intraday, quickly rising over 6% from the day's low near $76,900. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and Federal Reserve officials released relatively dovish interest rate signals, all of which gave a significant boost to risk assets. The focus of this market move is not just "rising back to 80,000," but that the market's capacity to absorb is changing. 💰 Funding side: ETFs remain the core observation indicator. The recent fund performance of U.S. spot BTC ETFs has improved. In the previous week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.92 billion in inflows, marking one of the strongest single-week performances since October 2025; the entire crypto fund market saw inflows of about $3.2 billion during the same period. However, ETF funds have not continuously net flowed in every day, with noticeable fluctuations in fund inflows and outflows recently. Therefore, rather than simply interpreting this as "institutions bottom-fishing comprehensively," it is better seen as institutional funds gradually increasing their allocation to BTC, though the trend still requires more data to confirm. 📊 Coinbase Premium: U.S. buying demand is trying to recover. The price difference between Coinbase and overseas trading platforms has always been an important indicator to observe U.S. spot demand. At the end of August, the Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive after several months of weakness, but then fell back again, indicating that U.S. buying demand has indeed shown signs of improvement, but it is not yet strong enough to be defined as sustained institutional accumulation. SoSeptember 4th Morning Gold Outlook
Yesterday, the gold market experienced a strong explosive rally. After the price started rising from the low of 4381, bullish momentum was fully released, driving the overall market significantly stronger. After the surge, the market slightly pulled back and is currently in a high-level consolidation phase. The hourly chart closed with a strong bullish candlestick, indicating a well-maintained short-term bullish trend structure and a basically established phase bullish pattern.
However, after a rapid continuous rise, short-term technical indicators have entered the overbought zone. Coupled with increased profit-taking pressure at high levels, the market clearly needs a corrective pullback. Intraday operations should avoid aggressive chasing of highs; it is more advisable to focus on buying on dips after stabilization and wait for rhythm recovery before following the trend.
Specific operation rhythm suggestions are as follows:
· If the price pulls back to the 4450–4470 range and shows signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing, consider following the trend to go long. The first short-term target is the 4500 psychological level. If it effectively holds above and breaks through, the market could further target 4520, and if the wave trend continues, it may push toward the high area around 4600.
· If the intraday rebound reaches the 4480–4500 resistance zone and shows obvious signs of stagnation or weakening momentum, consider lightly participating in short-term short positions on the pullback. The first support to test on the decline is 4450; if this level is effectively broken, the downside space will further open, with subsequent support levels at 4430 and, for a deep pullback, the key support area around 4320.
Overall, adopt a range-bound approach intraday, focusing on observing the gains or losses of key zones, and patiently wait for confirmation signals before entering. I strongly agree with this statement:
Google released Gemini 3.8 Flash, compressing frontier-level capabilities into the Flash price range;
Meta released Muse Spark 1.3, enabling Agents to accomplish more with fewer tokens and tool calls;
Mostik went even further, starting to try to prevent some tokens between models from being generated from the very beginning.
They all actually point to the same change:
Intelligence is becoming cheap at an extremely exaggerated speed.
Therefore, the profitability certainty of Hyperscalers > top-tier model manufacturers (O and A) > Neocloud/second-tier model manufacturers > semiconductor industry chain
When intelligence is no longer outrageously expensive, the bottleneck in semiconductors will no longer exist. (Think about this logic) 🚨The Federal Reserve has not made a statement, but the market is imagining rate cut expectations.
📊Initial jobless claims at a low of 206,000, continuing claims slightly up at 1,779,000, data painting a picture of "zombie employment": companies, due to labor shortages and policy uncertainty, stubbornly avoid layoffs and also freeze new hires. This situation makes algorithms and macro funds blindly optimistic, prematurely betting on the Fed turning dovish, driving up BTC and crypto stocks. But in reality, it's arbitrage players exploiting expectation gaps to capture liquidity premiums, not Web3 fundamentals.
💣The hidden risk is: as long as a wave of layoffs does not break out, the tight labor balance will continue to support sticky inflation in the service sector, putting the Fed in a dilemma, unable to ease or signal relaxation.
🔍On-chain rallies rely on derivative liquidations and leverage, with whales reversing and shifting chips.
📅If non-farm payrolls exceed expectations or inflation remains stubborn, high leverage will trigger chain liquidations.
💡Strategy: do not chase the rally, wait for a sell-off before positioning in real on-chain yield scenarios.
$BTC $ETH $BNB Why can $81,000 be strongly pulled up?
“Ethereum/Altcoin Bleeding” and Extreme Siphoning Effect
Liquidity is not being broadly injected but shows an extreme one-sided siphoning. Funds are all concentrating into BTC, with BTC dominance remaining high.
Short Squeeze
In the previous $75,000–78,000 consolidation zone, a large amount of short-term derivative shorts accumulated. This surge with volume directly broke through key resistance, triggering massive forced liquidations (short squeezes), turning the short squeeze into fuel for pushing prices higher.
“Narrative Hedge” under High US Treasury Yields
Although the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 4.7%, the market is now betting on the long-term outcome of “excessive fiscal deficit + the Fed eventually having to cut rates/expand balance sheet.” BTC is being accumulated by some institutional funds as an “inflation hedge + decentralized hard asset.”
Current Market Situation and Key Levels
Upside Resistance: After breaking the $80,000 mark, the upside is almost a vacuum of chips, directly entering the price discovery phase. The next psychological level to watch is $85,000.
Downside Support: $80,000 has turned from previous strong resistance into the first psychological support; if a sharp wick and shakeout occur, strong chip support will be lifted to the $77,500–78,000 range. $BTC Nonfarm Payroll Rate Cut Forecast: How will the market move tonight... Brothers, share your strategies.
New jobs over 95,000 (10% probability): S&P 500 index may drop 0.5% to 1.25%.
New jobs between 65,000 and 95,000 (25% probability): S&P 500 index may decline 0.25% to 0.5%.
New jobs between 35,000 and 65,000 (30% probability): S&P 500 index may fall up to 0.25% or rise up to 0.5%.
New jobs between 5,000 and 35,000 (25% probability): S&P 500 index may rise 0.25% to 0.75%.
New jobs fewer than 5,000 (10% probability): S&P 500 index may fall up to 0.25% or rise up to 0.5%.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Tonight, the crypto market is highly likely to experience full volatility. It often first fakes a pump, then reverses with a wick within minutes, sweeping stop losses on both longs and shorts. $BTC The market generally estimates that August's non-farm payrolls will increase by about 50,000 to 60,000, with unemployment holding steady at 4.1%, and wages rising slightly. July's non-farm payrolls were negative, with 23,000 fewer jobs; this time a slight recovery is expected but still not very strong. $ETH A few days ago, the small non-farm ADP report was unexpectedly poor, delivering bad data that served as a warning to the market, so everyone already expects weakening employment. However, the official non-farm payrolls often do not align with the ADP report and can easily reverse directly, so never jump to conclusions based solely on ADP. $ZEC There are three realistic scenarios: 1. Data is clearly better than expected, employment is strong, which supports the Fed and brings back thoughts of rate hikes. The dollar strengthens, the crypto market tends to get hit, and Bitcoin at 79,000 is very likely to drop sharply, with wicks down sweeping shorts then reversing to sweep longs. 2. Data is worse than expected, employment is weak, the market will think high rates are unsustainable, rate cut expectations rise, and risk assets tend to rebound. But be cautious: if the data is too bad, the market will panic about the economy failing and collectively sell off, dragging crypto prices down as well. 3. Data is around expectations, neither hot nor cold. This is the most frustrating scenario, with no clear single direction, first wicks up and down sweeping stop losses back and forth, then continuing to grind in place, extending the current tug-of-war between 77,000 and 79,000. Also, a big pitfall is to not only look at the number of new jobs but also wage figures Account Position Divergence Radar
Both are bullish, but account long positions and heavy positions are not the same; the difference is shown in this chart.
$DOGE account numbers consistently lean bullish, but the top holding ratio remains below 1, so the advantage in number of holders has not translated into a top position advantage. When the price falls, OI increases simultaneously; this phase is not simply deleveraging, and the attribution of positions still requires transaction verification. There are already enough bullish accounts; what can truly narrow the divergence is the top holding ratio rising above 1.
$SUI different account metrics stand on opposite sides; currently, treat it as divergence without amplifying any particular ratio. Price and positions fall together, releasing selling pressure; which side is exiting cannot be confirmed by this data alone. Next, observe which account metric changes continuously first and is confirmed by price and OI.
$EDGE account metrics tilt toward the short side, but the top holding weight remains bullish; this data only confirms divergence and does not judge a winner. Price rises while OI falls, the most certain factor is position reduction driving this; the specific exiting side cannot be confirmed by this data alone. The short side next needs not more accounts, but confirmation of top position weight.The competitive landscape among the three “money printing machines” in the crypto market has recently seen some subtle changes. Although $UNI has the highest protocol fee revenue, most of it is distributed to liquidity providers, making the actual amount used for buyback and burn the lowest among the three. Its recent price increase mainly relies on the Robinhood chain, which contributed over 66% of the buyback volume. Whether the price can hold up going forward largely depends on the performance of this chain.
$PUMP has always been very profitable, but as a launch platform, ordinary players can hardly participate. New tokens keep emerging, and retail investors often face various arbitrage and attacks, which is currently its biggest pain point. However, after looking at the pons mechanism on the Robinhood chain, it becomes clear that these issues are technically not difficult to solve.
As for $HYPE, the market pricing is already quite thorough. If I had to choose only one out of the three, I would rather choose none, because the real dark horse might be someone else. This new platform has a 24-hour protocol fee of 5.95 million USD, income of 1.11 million USD, with fees exceeding pump for two consecutive days, and a buyback and burn ratio as high as 29.3%, with even greater transparency. Barring any surprises, it could become the biggest variable in this bull market.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, and the above is only data observation, not investment advice. $UNI $PUMP$CORE rebound comes from the burn benefit, nodes have not yet recovered, and there are temporarily fewer sell orders. However, the risk of dispersed chips has not been eliminated, so do not chase the high; focus on observing the chip flow after deposit and withdrawal are opened.U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, with the S&P around 7748 points (+1.1%), the Dow around 53686 points (+1.2%), the Nasdaq around 26584 points (+1.4%), and $QQQ closing at 717.65. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to about 4.77%. On the surface, it looks like a tech rebound, but in essence, after Waller pushed the probability of a September rate hike down from about 63% to about 48%, the market is repricing the idea of "holding steady." This is more like a high-level repricing. $NVDA already reported revenue of $96.2 billion on August 26, with $89 billion from data centers and guidance of $108 billion for the next quarter, indicating demand is not weak; after the Jackson Hole speech, valuations were first pressured by interest rates. Tonight at 20:30, the nonfarm payrolls report is the first reconciliation, and the CPI on September 11 will determine the direction of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 1. First, look at this chart for the broader market: Tech is up 43% for the year and remains the core of U.S. stock pricing; however, the leaders in the past month have been energy (+10.8%) and healthcare (+6.8%). Semiconductors are up 70% for the year but have pulled back 9% recently, showing the greatest volatility and deepest digestion. Financials rose yesterday due to interest rates, not because of a new industry story. Industrials have been the weakest recently, indicating that the "AI factory is fully priced in" is not yet true. Therefore, the index turning positive on Thursday should not be directly interpreted as a restart of the tech theme. A cleaner validation is when three things happen simultaneously: $Originally, I was waiting for a pullback, but the market simply didn't give much time to get in. BTC recently rebounded quickly from around $76K to above $81K, once touching about $81.4K intraday; meanwhile, US stock risk assets also strengthened significantly. My biggest misjudgment at the time was: "Since the negative news is already priced in, it should drop first, then start a rebound." But the market told me—sometimes, truly strong trends don't give opportunities according to your expected rhythm. 🔥 The most critical catalyst now is the US August nonfarm payrolls. Today, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report. The market currently expects about 50,000 new nonfarm jobs, while July actually recorded -23,000; unemployment rate and wage data will also affect the market's judgment on the Fed's September policy. More interestingly, yesterday Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's speech leaned towards maintaining the current interest rate, which boosted market expectations of "no rate hike for now," also helping BTC briefly reclaim $81K. So now the market is really trading not just on: "Is the nonfarm payroll good or bad?" but rather: Cooling employment → easing inflation pressure → Fed policy expectations turning dovish → liquidity improvement → BTC continues to absorb risk capital Of course, if employment data is much stronger than expected, interest rates and the dollar could rise again, and BTC might face pressure once more. 📌 My observation: $BTC → still the core of capital currently $ETH →BTC has once again stood near $81K. What the market truly needs to focus on is no longer just the price increase, but the underlying capital movements. Latest data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of about $101.15M in a single day, while the previous day saw a net outflow of about $236.5M, indicating that institutional funds are rapidly readjusting their positions. Meanwhile, the ETH ETF experienced a net outflow of about $48M, ending a streak of 12 consecutive trading days of inflows. This means that funds have not yet formed a clear comprehensive rotation from “BTC → ETH → altcoins.” 📊 The current capital flow path looks more like: BTC absorbs liquidity → institutions return to mainstream assets → ETH awaits fund confirmation → altcoins seek the next round of opportunities. Additionally, the recent rise in BTC has also been driven by changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations and a decline in global bond yields, leading to a rebound in market risk appetite. However, it is important to note: BTC still faces significant technical resistance near $82K–$83K. Whether it can truly break through will determine if this rebound is merely a short-term capital return or the start of a larger trend. 🔥 So the real question now is not: “Has capital returned to the crypto market?” but rather: “Will the next wave of institutional funds flow to BTC, ETH, or start seeking high Beta altcoins?” Once capital rotation is clearly confirmed, the market’s next phase$ZEC hit a high of 979 yesterday, just 21 dollars short of 1000. It rallied from 780 to 979, up 25% in a week. The narrative of Grayscale's buy calls plus ETF expectations is still fermenting, and it feels like it has the momentum to reach 1000.
$USELESS is even more extreme, rising from 0.08 to 0.21, more than doubling in three days. The degree of control by the whales is very high, with minimal pullback. After Bonk Guy's buy call, new funds are stepping in to continue the rally. This token's chips are highly concentrated, and the cost to push the price up is very low. My short position is also holding strong.
$HYPE is consolidating sideways near 86 at a high level. I wanted to buy yesterday but didn't pull the trigger; today it's still at the same level. This kind of high-level sideways consolidation without dropping indicates a stable chip structure, and the main force is waiting for an opportunity to break the previous high.
My judgment:
ZEC is clearly overbought in the short term, with RSI at 72.41. If the overall market pulls back, ZEC's retracement won't be small. The mid-to-long-term logic remains intact, supported by the privacy coin leader status plus ETF expectation narrative. Consider buying on a pullback to 850-880.
USELESS is purely driven by whales and KOL buy calls, with no fundamental support. The more violently it rises, the harsher the drop when it falls. If you don't have a base position, it's recommended to watch rather than chase.
HYPE is in a high-level accumulation phase, consolidating with low volume near 86, with stable chips. Once the overall market stabilizes, HYPE might be the first to break out.
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robinhood chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up
Robinhood chain suddenly surges in volume, does $ARB finally have a "profit-making" logic this time?
What truly stimulates the market is that Arbitrum has for the first time shown quantifiable incremental revenue expectations.
Robinhood Chain's trading volume surged 89.5% to $6.92 billion in the past week, with 24-hour revenue reaching as high as $1.92 million. According to the protocol, 10% of net revenue flows back into the Arbitrum ecosystem.
The market immediately responded: ARB surged from about $0.073 on August 18 to about $0.11, a single-day increase of over 30%; meanwhile, derivatives trading volume once soared to $1.37 billion, and open interest also rose to about $165 million, clearly showing leveraged funds entering.
But the easiest thing to overhype here is: money earned by Robinhood ≠ direct dividends to ARB holders, it mainly goes into the Arbitrum DAO treasury. So I define this round as fundamental improvement + narrative revaluation + leverage amplification, not ARB suddenly becoming a cash flow asset.
What really matters is whether Robinhood chain's revenue can sustain. If trading volume continues to rise, ARB might this time transform from an "L2 token with no story" to an "infrastructure asset supported by real revenue"; but if activity mainly relies on Meme/bot speculation, after the hype fades, this 30% increase can easily be given back. The most recent concern in the $CORE community has gradually shifted from "Can the vulnerability be fixed?" to: When will deposits and withdrawals on exchanges fully resume? Once the channels reopen, will CORE experience a crazy surge? My view is: Resuming deposits and withdrawals is an important signal, but it is by no means a "one-click takeoff button." What it truly brings is reconnecting the previously temporarily isolated on-chain tokens with the secondary market. At that time, the real buying and selling forces in the market will collide again. 📢 Latest update The Core DAO v1.0.26 emergency hard fork has been launched on the mainnet. The official statement says the reward issuance vulnerability has been fixed, and over 150 million excess CORE tokens have been burned. This upgrade did not roll back historical transactions nor cause losses to ordinary users' assets; the official also stated that staking rewards are expected to gradually return to normal, with a full incident review still pending release. Meanwhile, exchanges such as Coinbase, Bitget, and LBank have previously imposed restrictions on CORE deposits/withdrawals. The specific resumption times depend on each exchange's announcements and page status. Therefore, what is truly worth observing next is not just whether the channels are open, but how much buying and selling volume enters the market simultaneously once the channels open. 🟢 The bullish side 1️⃣ The biggest uncertainty has clearly decreased The hard fork is complete, the reward issuance vulnerability has been fixed, and over 150 million excess CORE tokens have been officially announced as permanently burned, which means thisBlockchain is not an exception pass for asynchronous MPC
The conclusion of IACR ePrint 2026/1860 is layered: asynchronous MPC remains constrained by classical fault tolerance boundaries without a trusted setup or relying only on Minicrypt assumptions; under a public-key assumption with a trusted setup, the authors construct another class of protocols tolerant to Byzantine adversaries.[1]
On the same day, the SEC proposed updating the registered transfer agent rules to include electronic and blockchain-based recordkeeping, risk management, and business continuity.[2][3]
Both lines point to a common user issue: who approves state changes, who maintains the official records, and how are exceptions handled? Neither the research results nor the regulatory proposals guarantee the security of existing wallets. #AI #Web3 #MPC #AsyncMPCBefore tonight's nonfarm payroll release, three sets of U.S. data did not give $BTC a one-way answer.
U.S. Department of Labor data shows:
- For the week ending August 29, initial jobless claims were 206,000, an increase of 2,000 from the revised previous value;
- The four-week average rose to 207,250;
- Continuing claims were 1.779 million, an increase of 8,000 from the revised previous value.
Therefore, it is not accurate to simply describe the continuing claims data as "declining." Revisions to previous values and different comparison baselines can easily cause discrepancies between news headlines and official reports.
On the other hand, the August ISM Services Index rose to 55.4, indicating demand is still expanding; however, the employment sub-index is only 47.8, still in contraction territory, while the prices sub-index rose to 72.6.
Putting these data together, the situation is closer to:
Strong service demand, cautious corporate hiring, and persistent price pressures.
This is not simply "weak data = BTC rises," nor "strong economy = BTC falls." At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report. What I will focus on then is:
1. Where the first big candlestick closes after the data release;
2. Whether there is a continuous close and continuation after breaking through the pre-event range;
3. If it quickly returns to the original range, whether this breakout was just a liquidity sweep.
Macro data is responsible for creating volatility, while price action confirms which direction the market ultimately accepts.
When you watch data-driven markets, do you chase the first wave or wait for event range confirmation? · Geopolitics: Rising tensions between the US and Iran have triggered market risk aversion. · Interest Rate Hike Expectations: US Treasury yields are climbing, reigniting market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. · "September Curse": Historically, September tends to be a poor month for risk assets, intensifying market anxiety. 📊 Reasons for the price changes of various cryptocurrencies are analyzed one by one. Below is the detailed situation of tokens in the table: 📉 Significant declines (dragged down by macro shocks or fundamental issues) · BTC (-0.31%): The tightening macro liquidity combined with deteriorating on-chain token distribution created a resonance effect, hindering the rebound. Technically, there is strong resistance around $82,000. · ETH (-0.50%): Besides macro pressure, the inflow of spot ETF funds is insufficient to absorb potential large sell-offs, causing the price to fall below $2,400. · SOL (-1.44%): An ecosystem hack led to nearly $300 million stolen, triggering liquidity and trust crises; token unlocks following FTX's bankruptcy continue to exert selling pressure. · XRP (-1.25%): Even with over $14 million net inflow from spot ETFs, it still couldn't withstand macro headwinds and large-scale derivative market sell-offs; after regulatory benefits were realized, the market saw profit-taking on "good news exhaustion." · DOGE (-2.09%): The bullish logic related to Musk collapsed, combined with whale sell-offs (reported at 260 million coins) and lack of new catalysts, leading to price pressure. · OKB (-1.73%): Following earlier speculative gainsThe market changed overnight, with $BTC bouncing from 77,000 straight up to 81,000! $ETH reclaimed 2,500, and $SOL also rose above 105. But looking closely, this surge is not due to a fundamental reversal; it's driven by sentiment recovery from news combined with short squeeze liquidations. #EarningsObserver: Broadcom's performance exceeded expectations, Snowflake raised guidance
Fed Governor Waller dropped a dovish hint, which was the most direct trigger. He said if inflation continues to cool, rates should remain unchanged, pushing the September rate hike probability down from 66% to around 50%. The market immediately amplified this signal—initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, signaling a cooling labor market, triggering a chain of short liquidations, and prices were pushed up accordingly. #LastDataBeforeFOMC: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
However, looking at the market details, the quality of this rebound is not very high. After $BTC touched 82,000, it quickly fell back and is now hovering around 81,000—a typical spike and retrace pattern. Although $ETH returned to 2,510, institutional wallets transferred 167,800 ETH to CEX over the past three days, about $400 million, so selling pressure between 2,430-2,450 has not disappeared. $SOL surged the most, but high-beta assets tend to rise fast and fall fast as well. #CryptoTreasuryExpansion faces index qualification challenges 【Morning Brief】$SKHY 159.63 long 50x leverage held overnight, morning session mark price 164.32, unrealized profit +146.90%. This asset is expected to be speculated along with SK Hynix mapping, but contract depth is shallow. 159.63 is the previous low resonance support, after low volume consolidation it chose to move upward.
Position logic unchanged: support not broken + altcoin rotation + 50x leverage amplification. But this kind of morning pump is mostly short covering, not new capital driving the main rise, 1.46x profit mostly taken off the table.
Remaining base position stop loss moved up to 160.5, exit immediately if broken, no replenishment. No new positions in the morning session, unpopular coin with high probability of false breakout in Asian session.
Intraday watch resistance reaction at 165, if volume breaks through then look at 168; if low volume tests highs, treat as distribution, no stubborn holding. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Bottomline integrates LINK, connecting over 600 banks to blockchain settlement
SWIFT service provider Bottomline announced a partnership with Chainlink to provide on-chain cross-border settlement capabilities to more than 600 bank clients in its network, which processes over $16 trillion in payments annually. The direction is clear: traditional clearing does not want to build a new chain but rather connect existing banking gateways to verifiable on-chain messages and reserve data.
The market implication is not that a certain coin will double the next day, but that stablecoin and RWA settlements are beginning to enter the core pipeline. $LINK serves the oracle and cross-chain messaging layer, while $ETH and $BNB chains compete in actual settlement and issuance. Unlike "launching a new stablecoin," this is a migration of existing bank traffic. The implementation cycle is measured in quarters, so don’t treat the news as an immediate buy signal, but the move from pilot to production for on-chain settlement is a line worth following separately.At a glance: US XRP Spot ETF single-day total net inflow of $6.1376 million
According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (September 3, US Eastern Time) the XRP Spot ETF single-day total net inflow was $6.1376 million.
The XRP Spot ETF with the highest net inflow yesterday was Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ), with a single-day net inflow of $3.1868 million, and a current historical total net inflow of $473 million.
Next was Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP), with a single-day net inflow of $2.9508 million, and a current historical total net inflow of $599 million.
As of the time of publication, the total net asset value of XRP Spot ETFs is $1.552 billion, with an XRP net asset ratio of 1.68%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $1.682 billion. Coinbase plans to launch single-stock perpetual contracts in the U.S., has submitted registration notices for derivatives exchange and broker-dealer to the SEC. Coinbase is advancing the launch of single-stock perpetual contracts domestically in the U.S. This week, it submitted registration notices for derivatives exchange and broker-dealer to the SEC, stating it will closely cooperate with the SEC and CFTC. Perpetual contracts, a hallmark derivative product in the crypto market, are attempting to formally enter the traditional U.S. securities market. Perpetual contracts have no expiration date and rely on a funding rate mechanism to anchor spot prices. They are the largest derivative category by trading volume on offshore crypto exchanges. However, due to regulatory restrictions, U.S. retail investors have long been unable to trade crypto perpetual contracts, and single-stock perpetual contracts are even more absent. Coinbase has previously launched regulated perpetual futures for BTC, ETH, and others through its CFTC-regulated derivatives platform. This time, it is further extending the perpetual mechanism to single stocks, marking a pioneering attempt in the U.S. market. The company is simultaneously applying for dual registration as a derivatives exchange and broker-dealer, aiming to open a compliant path between securities and derivatives, and coordinating the SEC and CFTC to jointly advance this. The significance of this event is reflected on three levels: On the product level, if approved, U.S. investors will be able to trade single-stock derivatives with leverage and no expiration date within a compliant framework for the first time, significantly expanding retail trading tools; On the industry level, it represents crypto financial engineering beginning to reverse flow into the traditional securities market, and the collaboration of the two major regulators signals a warming attitude in the U.S. toward innovative derivatives; On the company level, trading procedures🔥$BTC mainnet is responsible for "lying flat and preserving value," while layer two handles "working and getting things done"
The BTC ecosystem nowadays is no longer just about transfers like in the early days; the division of labor increasingly resembles a large company: the mainnet acts as the treasury + attendance system, and L2 serves as the business department. The Lightning Network is the most mature, with data showing over 5 million monthly transactions, capacity exceeding 6000 BTC, and more than 75,000 channels. Strike, Breez, Cash App, and many merchants use it. Fees are often less than 1 cent, making it suitable for "buying coffee and paying salaries"; however, it has to manage channel liquidity and can't handle everything.
For smart contracts, the approach is "no changes to the mainnet": BitVM/BitVM2 use cryptographic challenges instead of multi-signature federations, Citrea implements ZK Rollup and writes proofs back to BTC, GOAT/BOB/Alpen provide trust-minimized bridges, Stacks runs DeFi with Clarity, and Liquid handles institutional privacy settlements. To translate: previously, BTC had to "ask others to babysit" when playing on other chains; now it tries to "install monitoring at home." But new L2 TVL is small, audits and bridge assumptions are still new, so don't treat whitepapers as mainnet-level security.
You can say in groups: "Lightning handles grocery payments, BitVM handles contract writing, Stacks handles DeFi, mainnet handles counting money; the BTC ecosystem isn't lazy and unproductive, it's just that the boss doesn't run errands personally. Don't treat 'Bitcoin L2' as a unified concept; payment types, ZK types, sidechain types, and staking types each have their own accounting." $BTC $SPCX has a long-term story and short-term sentiment.
Three days ago, I missed placing a long order at 140; I already knew the rocket was going to rise, but I was stuck with SanDisk and Ethereum, so I didn’t dare to operate recklessly. I missed the rocket rally, which is a bit regrettable. This surge in SPCX is not caused by a single event but by several good things coming together, plus capital entering the market to speculate, which quickly pushed the stock price up. Previously, the market was worried that after a large batch of restricted shares held by employees were unlocked, everyone would rush to sell, directly crashing the stock price. But when the unlock actually happened, not many were willing to sell, and the selling pressure was far less than expected. Those who bet on the stock price falling and planned to short to make money saw the situation was unfavorable and had to quickly buy back to close their positions, which further pushed the price up. This is a case where bad news turned into good news after landing.
People’s perception of this company has also changed; it’s no longer seen simply as a company that launches rockets and operates Starlink satellite internet. Now capital is starting to speculate on its future AI computing power layout. The number of Starlink users continues to grow, providing stable revenue, and combined with the hot AI story, many investment banks have raised their target prices, attracting more capital.
Additionally, the US market is beginning to speculate on weakening employment, with the Federal Reserve possibly cutting interest rates later, and US Treasury yields falling. Stocks that tell stories based on future expectations are especially sensitive to interest rates. When rate cut expectations rise, capital is willing to give higher valuations.
Another point is that there are not many freely tradable shares on the market, so it doesn’t take huge capital to quickly push the stock price up. It’s thrilling to watch the price rise, but conversely, once the good news is realized and capital takes profits and leaves, the price can fall very quickly.
What you need to be aware of is that this company is still overall losing money. The stock price rise relies on future imagination, not on stable profits in hand now. There will be another round of share unlocks later, and a large amount of selling pressure could emerge at any time. Moreover, the company’s development direction follows Musk’s plans. If Starlink, AI, and other businesses don’t meet expectations, the stock price could experience a significant correction at any time. Overall, the long-term story looks very attractive. This round of price increase is driven by the digestion of unlock-related negative news, improved business expectations, and rate cut expectations. However, this stock is very volatile and only suitable for light positions and small trades. Do not hold heavy positions and hold on tightly.$KORU
The domestic pension fund acted as a long-term national team, making a large-scale late-session intervention to support the market, investing 120 billion KRW in 20 minutes to heavily buy leading technology stocks.
Historically, pension funds buying against the trend often signal a phase bottom. Currently, with continuous foreign capital outflows, the market is solely supported by pension funds absorbing chips to stabilize the market. Long-term capital entering to support the bottom has opened up the potential for an upward move.Yesterday the market suddenly collectively breathed a sigh of relief: US stocks rose, US bonds rose, gold briefly surged to around 4470, and BTC also reclaimed above 80,000.
To put it simply, what everyone is really trading on is not some mysterious positive news, but the fact that the September rate hike expectations have been pushed down again.
After Waller spoke, the market's bet on a September 16 rate hike returned to about a 50-50 split. His message was simple: if inflation continues to fall, there’s no need to rush to raise rates; but if the data heats up again, then the hike will still have to happen.
So the most critical thing now is not guessing, but waiting for the data.
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are the first test.
If employment continues to cool, the market will definitely keep betting on "no rate hike"; but if the nonfarm suddenly comes out very strong, the recently eased rate hike expectations could very well be pulled back.
Gold is now around 4473, which itself is the most direct safe-haven and interest rate trading asset; on the US stock side, $SNDK has also returned to around 1550, showing that risk assets are clearly reacting to this wave of expectation changes.
Looking at the crypto space, Bitcoin has reclaimed above 80,000, and for now I remain somewhat bullish, but the biggest fear here is that before the data comes out, funds have already pre-spent the positive expectations.
Ethereum is similar; it has more bounce than BTC but is also more dependent on liquidity.
So I’m not in a hurry to call the bull market back yet.
Tonight we first watch employment in the nonfarm data, then on September 11 we look at CPI.
Buying SanDisk below 1600 is basically free money with no brain needed.Uniswap Labs' direct investment in purchasing tokens of Robinhood Chain's native Launchpad (asset launcher) Pons is far from a simple PR-style strategic cooperation; it is a rare and highly targeted "tokenized capital alignment" and "asset issuance source positioning." The harsh reality of DEX competition is: whoever controls token issuance monopolizes 100% of the subsequent secondary market liquidity and trading fees. In the past, Raydium drained a large amount of retail liquidity on Solana through the highly profitable token issuance pipeline Pump.fun. As a DeFi leader, Uniswap previously mainly handled secondary liquidity for already issued projects. By directly investing and deeply binding with Pons, Uniswap Labs attempts to build a seamless closed loop of "token issuance (Pons) → trading (Uniswap v4)" on Robinhood Chain. All new tokens launched on Pons will have their initial liquidity pools and subsequent trading forcibly or by default mounted on Uniswap's underlying protocol, directly contributing high-frequency trading volume and protocol revenue to Uniswap. Robinhood, as a super gateway for compliant retail fund inflows and outflows, naturally accumulates highly sticky retail funds and compliance attributes through its deployed Web3 chain (Robinhood Chain). Through Pons US East 9-3 Fund Details (Unit: Million USD)
BTC Spot ETF
IBIT (BlackRock) +115.4
BITB (Bitwise) +4.2
MSBT (Morgan Stanley) +7.3
BTC (Grayscale Mini) +30.4
GBTC (Grayscale Old) -56.2
BTC Total: +101.1
ETH Spot ETF
ETHA (BlackRock) -53.4
FETH (Fidelity) -26.2
ETHE (Grayscale) -23.5
ETHB (Staking) +53.0
ETH Total: -48.08
Market Interpretation
On 9-3, funds showed extreme divergence. After a large outflow the previous day, BTC immediately rebounded with strong buyback from IBIT; Grayscale old trust continued redemptions, recovering nearly half of yesterday's outflow. Institutions have not exited the market trend-wise.
ETH ended a 12-trading-day streak of net inflows, experiencing its first large redemption. Mainstream products generally saw outflows, with only staking-type ETHB receiving funds, indicating capital fleeing spot ETH and internally switching to staking products.
On the macro level, geopolitical sentiment fluctuated repeatedly, causing rapid swings in fund behavior: BTC's safe-haven attribute was picked up again, while ETH's growth attribute was temporarily set aside.
Alert status: No consecutive two-day outflow alert triggered; alert lifted, returning to observation status.
$BTC $ETH Yesterday's $ZEC really gave the market another lesson. The price surged to around $970 at one point, with a 24-hour increase close to 20%. Against the backdrop of a broad market rebound, it clearly outperformed mainstream coins. But if you only look at "ZEC suddenly rose 20%," it’s actually not very meaningful. What’s truly worth studying is: Why is capital now frantically chasing ZEC again? Is this rally just short-term speculation, or a new trend revaluation? 1. The core of ZEC’s rise this time is not simply "privacy coin speculation." In the past, the market’s speculation on ZEC usually followed a simple logic: privacy narrative → capital inflow → surge → sentiment fade. But this time, the market has added much more to ZEC. On one hand, the privacy sector has regained attention. On the other hand, ZEC has begun to see clearer institutional capital inflows, with products like ETFs making traditional capital participation in ZEC more direct. This has led to a shift in ZEC’s market positioning: it used to be more like an "old-school privacy coin." Now the market is starting to see it as: the leader in the privacy sector + an ETF capital vehicle + a high Beta crypto asset. This change is far more important than a single-day 20% price increase. 2. "Breakout + short squeeze + FOMO"—three forces driving the explosive rally. The most notable thing about yesterday’s bullish candle is that it wasn’t a slow grind upward. After the price breakout, trading volume and market attention quickly expanded. And when a coin long ignored by the marketADP stabbed first — 38,000, expected 47,000, the worst since January this year. The Beige Book added fuel: 10 out of 12 districts only mention "moderate growth," employment expansion clearly stalled. The data is clearly signaling a slowdown, yet CME stubbornly shows a 62.3% probability of a rate hike in September; the market is like a schizophrenic.
Friday at 8:30 PM, the August nonfarm payroll showdown. $BTC nonfarm expectations have long split into three camps. Reuters says 58,000, Deutsche Bank hits 65,000, Wells Fargo and NBC directly forecast 80,000. The bigger the expectation gap, the faster the meat grinder spins tonight; any side missing the mark will trigger a spike.
I’ll write you three scripts with my eyes closed —
Nonfarm above 65,000: rate hike expectations locked in, $BTC takes the hit first, 75,000 may not hold, the real bottom might be around 72,000. Don’t catch a falling knife. $SOL
Nonfarm between 58,000-65,000: meets expectations = no direction, choppy consolidation, both bulls and bears get shaken out, better to sleep than stare at the screen.
Nonfarm below 58,000: rate hike expectations extinguished immediately, market reprices instantly, $BTC rebounds to challenge 80,000, whether to chase then is a test of human nature.
My stance is simple: betting on data is gambling with your life, wait for the actual numbers before stepping in. Once direction emerges, right-side trading always lets you sleep better than left-side bottom fishing. $ETH
#Last data set before FOMC: this Friday’s nonfarmHonestly, today's market has been the most exhilarating in a long time.
The small non-farm payroll was only 38,000, and the Beige Book clearly indicated that employment is weakening. A few days ago, the market was panicking, worried that there might be a rate hike in September, but tonight the tone suddenly shifted, with funds rushing wildly to the bulls' side, and talk of rate cuts resurfaced.
BTC directly surged to 81,000, a truly fierce move all at once. Ethereum $ETH was even more dramatic—I entered a long position at 2338.42, and watched it climb steadily from 2360 to 2500. Although the profit wasn't huge, the feeling of going from anxiety to relief was incredibly thrilling.
$OKB also surged to around 109. All three moving together this time doesn't feel like a fake pump; it seems like real liquidity is flowing in.
But despite all this, I still feel a bit uneasy. The CME still shows a 62.3% chance of a rate hike in September, and the real test will be the non-farm payroll at 8:30 tonight. If the data continues to be weak, the easing narrative can continue; but if employment suddenly strengthens, these early bullish positions could be crushed in minutes.
No need to say much about Trump's mouth—one careless comment can turn sentiment upside down.
So, I think it's still too early to call the bull market back. We'll know for sure after tonight's non-farm payroll results—whether it's a mule or a horse will become clear.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 The 30-year yield above five percent has held for forty-one consecutive trading days. In chess terms, this is called a “long control” — the opponent is not in check, but the entire open file is firmly in hand. Gold, stocks, and Bitcoin are merely pawns pushed to the sidelines, each searching for a crack to breathe through.
A grandmaster does not rush to respond to every local provocation. What truly matters is the pawn structure, not the value of a single pawn in hand. The rise in long-term yields is a pawn chain advancing across the center: rate hike expectations are the knight on e4, the fiscal deficit is the stacked pawns behind, and issuance volume and term premium are the rooks extending along the open file. Once this entire set of pieces is committed, the market’s time value is re-evaluated as a whole. Any player trying to protect duration will find their position like a central pawn surrounded by enemy wings; no matter which direction they exchange pieces, new gaps will emerge.
Oil prices near ninety dollars is a subtle move, like the opponent casually pushing a flank pawn in the middlegame. The memory of inflation was originally a black bishop sleeping in the a1 corner, suddenly awakened by the light of that passed pawn. It eyes your king’s fortress across a long diagonal, and all previously solid defensive postures now carry an unconscious tremble. The rise in oil is no longer just a number at the gas station; it is a passed pawn rolling forward at ninety dollars per hour, ready to tear open the entire kingside defense at any moment.
Some pin their hopes on upcoming inflation data and meeting decisions. This is like waiting for the opponent to voluntarily offer a respite in a winning position, hoping yields will retreat a few steps from their highs. But in high-level play, a respite does not equal opportunity; it often serves only as cover before shifting to another front. The expansion of Treasury supply, the rebound of term premium, and the aftereffects of fiscal expansion — these hidden forces make no sound but have already reached the fourth rank. They are so quiet that one might mistakenly believe the center of the board remains safe. Yet a true grandmaster knows that when all pieces remain on the board, the outcome is always decided by those two connected passed pawns.
Meanwhile, news of Treasury repos sounds like exchanging a rook for a knight, trying to open a small hole in the liquidity-clogged congestion. This operation can temporarily relieve pressure on a clear file but cannot change the fact that the pawn chain has already advanced in the overall game. The endgame of the capital market cannot be overturned by one or two tactical moves. It tests the stability of the pawn structure and the calculability of timing. Once the opponent’s pawns freely control key squares, the king’s fortress of all long-duration assets will gradually lose its outer defenses.
Bitcoin’s position in this setup is especially clear. It is not the main force charging on the board but more like a knight trapped by the opponent’s diagonal, its escape routes blocked. It still has jumping space, but every landing square is quietly guarded by high-interest pieces. No one treats the knight as the sole core in modern chess; but when trapped in a corner, even a safe escape requires sacrificing a pawn first. This is the real pawn structure of current crypto assets: not directly checkmated, but every step pays an invisible cost.
Forty-one trading days is enough time for a grandmaster to calculate the endgame twenty moves ahead. The pawn group of the 30-year yield already stands on the seventh rank. No retreat behind, promotion ahead. The clock ticks second by second, and the empty squares on the board grow fewer. Pawn promotion never needs announcement; it only requires an unguarded square.
And now, the seventh rank has long been open. #30yabove5%for41daysThe next crypto bull market will be completely different from before! Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Only institutions are entering the market
The next crypto bull market is completely different from the past
If you are still waiting for Bitcoin to drop again for a good "bottom fishing" opportunity, you might need to rethink.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently shared an interesting observation: in the past two months, the market has been almost "immune" to bad news. The founder of MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin, but the market didn’t crash; over a hundred million dollars worth of cold wallets were stolen, but the market didn’t crash; the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate, yet the market still didn’t crash.
When the market shows no reaction to bad news, it often means the bottom has truly been reached.
But today, I want to talk not about whether Bitcoin will rise or not, but about the underlying logic of the next bull market—it may be unlike any before.
The bull market is slowing down but becoming more solid
In the past, the crypto market followed a "four-year cycle": three years up, one year down. But this time, the pullback was only 55%, not the usual 70% to 80%. The cycle is compressing, and volatility is decreasing.
There is only one core reason: the buyers have changed.
Four years ago, retail investors rushed in, but now Bitwise deals daily with institutions, family offices, and sovereign wealth funds. Their holding periods are not 3 to 5 days, but 3 to 5 years or even 10 years.
Hougan provided some concrete data: Bitwise’s typical client needs to hold about eight meetings before making an allocation decision. Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, and by this summer, these institutions are just finishing their education cycle.
Their questions have shifted from "whether to invest" to "when to invest."
Two pools of capital, two completely different paths
The most critical judgment going forward is that the bull market will be split into two markets.
On one side is institutional capital. Platforms like Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch manage about $20 trillion in assets combined. They prioritize buying mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum that can accommodate large funds. Even a 1% to 2% allocation from these platforms means a continuous inflow of hundreds of billions of dollars.
On the other side is on-chain native capital. They bet on DeFi applications with real revenue—such as Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Aave, and Morpho.
Why don’t institutions buy Uniswap directly? The reason is simple: liquidity scale mismatch. Uniswap’s $2.5 billion market cap can’t absorb institutional money, but Bitcoin and Ethereum can.
However, on-chain capital understood something earlier than institutions: the application layer is generating real cash flow.
Real revenue is no longer a "future tense"
In 2025, Ethereum and Solana generated about $1.2 billion in fee revenue. Hyperliquid alone generated over $1 billion in annualized fee revenue in 2025, 99% of which was used to buy back its own tokens. Uniswap and Lido also introduced fee-sharing mechanisms in 2025.
In other words, these projects are no longer "selling dreams" but distributing real income to token holders.
Bitwise research director Ryan Rasmussen’s judgment is straightforward: DeFi will become in the next bull market what we thought it would be in 2021—the regulatory shackles have been lifted.
Stablecoins and RWA: a bigger opportunity overlooked by most
Stablecoins are undergoing a role transformation—from trading settlement tools to core infrastructure for global capital flows.
Research by Citi and Brookfield predicts stablecoin circulation could grow 15-fold by 2030. But the real opportunity may not be in stablecoins themselves, but in the "pipeline" behind them.
Stablecore’s co-founder predicts that by 2026, regional banks will stop relying on large banks for cross-border remittances and switch to stablecoins—reducing costs by 90% and completing settlements within seconds.
The bigger strategic opportunity lies in the "orchestration layer"—transaction routing and settlement services across chains, banks, and payment networks. This is like how in the 19th century, the railroads themselves were not the greatest source of wealth; the real wealth came from the steel, coal, and distribution networks built around the railroads.
Looking at RWA (real-world asset tokenization), this market has already surpassed $33.7 billion, tripling in the past year. Tokenized U.S. Treasury products on Ethereum alone have attracted nearly $1.5 billion, with Franklin Templeton and BlackRock leading the way.
Nasdaq is partnering with Kraken to allow investors to trade tokenized versions of stocks and ETFs; the New York Stock Exchange is also working with Securitize to launch a digital token platform. 54% of financial services companies are already investing in tokenization.
In conclusion
The next crypto bull market will not explode overnight like before. It will be slower, more solid, and more fundamentally driven.
Bitcoin will increasingly resemble gold, Ethereum and Solana will be more like tech stocks, and protocols with real revenue may become the "cash cows" of DeFi.
Washington’s moves are slower than the crypto community is used to—but this time it’s the "real deal" $USELESS whales are starting to slowly reduce their positions$BTC surged 24% in a single month, entering a "digital gold pricing cycle"?
But what I actually think is truly worth being cautious about tonight is not whether BTC can continue to surge, but whether liquidity might suddenly turn sour.
BTC's correlation with gold has risen to a multi-year high, combined with expectations of debt monetization, the macro narrative is indeed changing. However, the $86,000 area has repeatedly proven to be strong resistance, and tonight's non-farm payrolls and next week's CPI are potential liquidity killers. Chasing at this level doesn't offer good odds; waiting for a pullback confirmation feels more comfortable.
More importantly: this rally is clearly not a "broad rally," but a narrative divergence.
First category, cash flow has already been realized: $ARB
The revenue share brought by Robinhood Chain has already started entering the Arbitrum ecosystem, and the income is real and verifiable. Robinhood Chain's recent gas revenue has surged dramatically, even surpassing other major chains at one point. The logic is solid, but $ARB also faces short-term overbought conditions and September unlock pressure, so don't blindly chase the highs.
Second category, cash flow is on the way: $LINK
Chainlink is cooperating with Bottomline, connecting over 600 banks, corresponding to an annual payment processing scale of about $16 trillion behind it. Traditional financial payment infrastructure is beginning to migrate on-chain, and this is the real long-term imagination.
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 How far can CORE go after losing the trust of exchanges and the community?
Current Reality
1. Trust damage at the exchange level
Multiple high-risk protocol vulnerabilities have triggered risk control assessments by several leading exchanges, resulting in suspension of deposits and withdrawals, and delisting actions on some platforms.
Centralized exchanges prioritize network stability and token supply security. Once labeled as "frequent mainnet vulnerabilities," it becomes extremely difficult to regain listing on all major exchanges.
Without deep liquidity from top CEXs, the main trading venues for the token will shift to small and medium exchanges and DEXs, causing increased slippage and liquidity shrinkage, and institutional funds will generally avoid entering.
2. Severe division and exhaustion of community support and sentiment
Some early holders are deeply trapped and feel disappointed and suspicious due to repeated incidents and delayed information disclosure; a large portion of the old community has left, and new ordinary users are reluctant to join.
Only the core believers remain steadfast, while ordinary market participants have voted with their feet. In crypto projects, no matter how grand the narrative, losing public trust makes it very difficult for the market to assign a high valuation.
3. The network itself is still running and has not directly shut down
The project team continues to perform hard forks for fixes and advance BTCFi-related development; the node network is still producing blocks and running, so delisting does not mean it will immediately become worthless or disappear.
But the network running does not mean the token price or ecosystem can return to its peak; network survival and market cap recovery are two completely different matters.
Lies told three times, no matter how much you act, it’s hard to fool! There are patients everywhere, but it’s hard to persuade those seeking death!ZEC +16.88%, LIT +17%, both soared on the same day
September 3: Fed's Waller hinted no rate hike, no action BTC 76,000 → 81,000, 24h short liquidations $416 million.
High beta (β) assets surged exponentially:
ZEC secured the first-ever privacy coin spot ETF (ZCSH), attracting $53 million in three days after listing, while the network only added 657,000 coins in a year. Plus SEC closed the case in January, and 30% of circulating supply locked in shielded pool—supply side locked down by three locks simultaneously.
LIT: 100% of fees used for buyback and burn, first burn destroyed 6.3% of circulating supply, half of circulating supply staked, real tradable chips possibly only a quarter. Robinhood's traffic closed loop.
The reason for the surge is the same: strong narrative, tight supply, heavy leverage.
(ZEC futures/spot trading ratio 8:1,
LIT unlocks 500 million coins in December)
$ZEC $BTC $LIT In the past 24 hours, BTC has surged from around $77,000, reaching a high of over $82,000. The core reason is still the easing of macro expectations, with Vice President Pence publicly calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; Waller also stated that as long as the upcoming inflation data does not rebound, the September policy meeting is likely to hold steady.
The cooling of rate hike expectations, the decline in US Treasury yields, combined with short covering, have collectively amplified BTC's gains. However, whether the rally can continue depends on next week's CPI data; if the data is moderate, expectations for a pause in rate hikes will be further solidified; if inflation rebounds, the recent gains could quickly be given back.
Then there's the wild card of Iran—if oil prices rise, inflation expectations will be reignited. Let's just hope Trump stays quiet recently and doesn't add more trouble to the market. Brothers, both BTC and ETH broke through key levels today
Just checked the data, $BTC is currently at $81,200, $ETH is currently at $2,506. In the past 24 hours, BTC rose over 5%, returning above $80,000; ETH rose nearly 5%, reclaiming the $2,500 level
Core driver: sharp drop in rate hike expectations
Last week, initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, signaling a cooling labor market. Fed Governor Waller stated that if inflation improves in August, he would support keeping rates unchanged. Market bets on a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63% to 50%. This contrasts sharply with last week's hawkish remarks from Waller, sparking a rebound in risk assets
In the past 24 hours, about $415 million in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with ETH and XRP shorts being the most concentrated. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has risen to 97-98%, indicating this rebound relies more on macro expectations than crypto's own narrative. August spot ETF net inflows were about $3.5 billion, the largest monthly inflow in over a year, providing a capital base for the rise
Technically: BTC resistance above at 82,000-82,500, with selling pressure near 82,000; ETH resistance above at 2,540-2,560
Trading advice: BTC pullback to 80,000-80,200 to stabilize and try long, stop loss at 79,000; ETH pullback to 2,480-2,500 to stabilize and try long, stop loss at 2,450. Friday's nonfarm payroll data remains a key variable
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
How did Robinhood Chain suddenly become so popular? ARB surged 30% in two days, a storyline even more magical than Pharaoh's pyramids.
On-chain data really exploded. On September 3, DEX 24-hour trading volume hit $1.851 billion, marking the sixth consecutive day of record highs. TVL surpassed $740 million, nearly doubling since August 1.
Where did this volume come from? A new Meme play involving crypto-stock pairs. The Meme coin pool no longer pairs with ETH or USDC, but with tokenized stocks—so when you buy Meme, you indirectly buy NVDA. As of September 1, about 17.2% of the on-chain supply of 19 high-liquidity stock tokens was locked in Meme pools.
Robinhood Chain uses Arbitrum Orbit technology; 10% of protocol net income flows directly back into the Arbitrum ecosystem, 8% goes to the DAO treasury, and 2% to the developer guild. ARB earned about $1.3 million in revenue share from this wave, rising 46.7% in two weeks, with a single-day surge of 30% on September 1.
Pharaoh's one-sentence summary: Robinhood Chain's strategy links Meme traffic, RWA assets, and ARB revenue share into a closed loop. But don't forget, 139 million ARB will unlock on September 23.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $SOL #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (September 4)
Bears dominated all day, starting with a 26.7x bear crush in 1 hour, then a 4-hour avalanche down to 1.78x near equilibrium, a second surge to 4.14x in 12 hours, and narrowing to 3.26x at 24 hours close—N-shaped oscillation followed by high-level stabilization but weakening momentum at the margin. The high concentration shows most liquidations were completed within the 12-hour window, with $110 million in liquidations hitting a recent peak.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $892,500 $32,200 $860,300
4 hours $9,709,400 $3,493,100 $6,216,300
12 hours $92,207,900 $17,934,900 $74,273,000
24 hours $110,000,000 $25,646,100 $83,572,900
1-hour bears crushed at 26.7x with $892,500 volume; 4-hour bear avalanche down to 1.78x near equilibrium with volume soaring to $9,709,400, short squeeze momentum sharply retreating from peak; 12-hour bears surged again to 4.14x with volume spiking to $92,207,900; 24-hour bears closed at 3.26x with $83,572,900 liquidations versus $25,646,100 longs, totaling $110 million liquidations. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 83.8% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration. Multiplier trajectory: 26.7x → 1.78x → 4.14x → 3.26x, an N-shaped oscillation followed by high-level stabilization but marginal weakening. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; direction is clear but momentum has retreated from peak, avoid blind short chasing.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 4
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payroll data is the "last piece of the puzzle" before September rate hikes, with AI earnings and on-chain revenue narratives providing new market pricing anchors.
📊 Nonfarm Preview: Data is the "appetizer," CPI is the main course
US August nonfarm payrolls release at 8:30 PM Friday, market expects 58,000 new jobs, unemployment rate 4.1%. Previous value was -23,000, weak for three consecutive months. "Small nonfarm" ADP added only 38,000, below expectations, lowest in 7 months. Bank of America sees nonfarm as just the "appetizer," CPI is the key to September rate hikes. CME shows rate hike probability steady at about 62%. If nonfarm weakens, rate hike expectations will cool quickly; if strong, September hike is almost certain.
🖥️ Broadcom and Snowflake: The more explosive the earnings, the more selective the market
Broadcom Q3 revenue $29.591 billion, +86% YoY, AI semiconductors $16.7 billion, +221% YoY, but Q4 guidance slightly below expectations, after-hours down over 6%. Snowflake revenue $1.55 billion, +35%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, after-hours surged over 23%.
⛓️ Robinhood Chain Volume Surge: ARB Soars on "Platform Tax" Narrative
ARB rose nearly 30% in one day, Robinhood Chain's daily protocol fees hit a record $3.75 million, accumulating $13.05 million fees in two months. Fee income narrative is replacing narrative-driven growth, becoming the core logic for ARB's repricing.
💎 Summary
Nonfarm is the last piece before September rate hikes, but CPI is the real decider; Broadcom's $29.5 billion revenue proves AI hardware is still booming, but the market cannot tolerate a 1% guidance miss; Snowflake's accelerating growth proves AI software is delivering returns; ARB's surge marks on-chain revenue narrative becoming a new dimension in crypto asset pricing. ETH liquidation data resonates with BTC—$110 million total liquidations, bears account for 76%, 83.8% concentration, N-shaped oscillation from 26.7x → 1.78x → 4.14x, indicating large funds have completed directional heavy bets before nonfarm. The two giants simultaneously point to the bear side, the clearest market statement before nonfarm landing. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 PONS has entered the current hot search, rising about 47.41% in 24 hours. The trading volume in the same window is about 166 million USD, roughly one-third of the market cap of 501 million USD. This figure is striking, but it proves turnover intensity, not "an equivalent amount of new funds settled."
Trading volume counts every transaction: the same batch of tokens can be repeatedly transferred in a short time, with market making quotes, short-term position closures, and rebalancing between different platforms all raising the total amount. Market cap is the valuation of all circulating tokens at a certain price, and the ratio between the two cannot be directly taken as net buying or the number of new holders.
The closer state in this round is: PONS's attention and trading activity have significantly increased, but the public price and total trading volume still cannot distinguish real net absorption from high-frequency turnover. If continuous spot inflows across venues, changes in holding address structure, or verifiable primary catalysts can be seen, then this explanation can be upgraded. $UNI How far can CORE go after losing the trust of exchanges and the community?
Current Reality
1. Trust damage at the exchange level
Multiple high-risk protocol vulnerabilities have triggered risk control assessments by several leading exchanges, resulting in suspension of deposits and withdrawals, and delisting actions on some platforms.
Centralized exchanges prioritize network stability and token supply security. Once labeled as "frequent mainnet vulnerabilities," it becomes extremely difficult to regain listing on all major exchanges.
Without deep liquidity from top CEXs, the main trading venues for the token will shift to small and medium exchanges and DEXs, causing increased slippage and liquidity shrinkage, and institutional funds will generally avoid entering.
2. Severe division and exhaustion of community sentiment
Some early holders are deeply trapped and feel disappointed and suspicious due to repeated incidents and delayed information disclosure; a large portion of the old community has left, and new ordinary users are reluctant to join.
Only the core believers remain steadfast, while ordinary market participants have voted with their feet. In crypto projects, no matter how grand the narrative, losing public trust makes it very difficult for the market to assign a high valuation.
3. The network itself is still running, not directly halted
The project team continues to perform hard forks for fixes and advance BTCFi-related development; the node network is still producing blocks and running, so delisting does not mean immediate zeroing out or disappearance.
But a running chain does not mean the token price or ecosystem can return to their peak; network survival and market cap recovery are two completely different matters.
Lies told three times, yet still falling for it! Patients are everywhere, but it’s hard to persuade those seeking death!!Last night, two sets of U.S. economic data were released, so let's briefly discuss the market changes.
Initial jobless claims came in at 206,000, slightly higher than expected, indicating a small increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the past week. Employment is slightly weakening, which theoretically is a small positive for rate cuts.
But the highlight was the ISM Services PMI, which exploded to 55.4, significantly exceeding market expectations. The service sector is the main part of the U.S. economy, and this data shows that offline consumption and business remain strong. What’s more concerning is the prices component soaring to 72.6, indicating a sudden surge in inflationary pressure.
Once the data came out, the market immediately changed: U.S. Treasury yields surged, the dollar strengthened, and gold, U.S. tech stocks, and storage sectors (like SanDisk) all fell simultaneously. The market started to worry that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts.
However, no conclusions can be drawn yet. The real test is tonight at 8:30 PM with the U.S. nonfarm payroll data.
If tonight’s nonfarm payrolls disappoint significantly and employment data is poor, it could offset the negative impact from the ISM data. But there is a key variable here—wages.
The best-case scenario: nonfarm payrolls are poor, and wages do not rise. The market would interpret this as the economy gradually cooling down, inflation becoming hard to sustain, and tech, storage, and gold would likely see a considerable rebound.
The worst-case scenario: nonfarm employment declines, but wages continue to rise. This is contradictory—employment is weak but prices and wages remain firm. The rebound strength would be greatly reduced, with gains likely to spike and then fall back, causing volatility.Tonight at 8:30, the non-farm payrolls will be released.
This time, I actually think the market should focus not on whether the "data is good or bad," but on whether employment has started to show a continuous weakening.
The chart shows the market expects August non-farm payrolls to increase by 56,000, with the previous value still at -23,000; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, basically unchanged.
If the non-farm payrolls are just slightly better than expected, I don't necessarily think it's bearish for BTC. Because the core of market trading has gradually shifted from "whether the economy is strong or not" to "whether employment can still hold up."
Data too strong → rate cut expectations cool down, BTC under pressure.
Data too weak → recession concerns rise, BTC may not immediately rise either.
So tonight I’m more focused on one thing:
How U.S. Treasury yields move after the non-farm payrolls are announced.
If employment is weak but yields fall simultaneously, it might actually give risk assets some breathing room.
Tonight, I won’t guess the numbers; I’ll wait for the market to give the answer itself.
Will this non-farm payrolls report become the real turning point for the September market?
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$BTC $ETH $USELESS Three days ago, I said those who sold below 77,000 would regret it two weeks later. I said the September rate hike would cause a double rise: if hiked, the bad news is fully priced in; if not, the good news is realized. $BTC directly surged to 82,000. I said I got half right, the other half hasn't happened yet.
The ADP employment data came out, showing private sector employment significantly below expectations. The market immediately flipped — a week ago there was a 66% chance of a rate hike, today it’s down to a 40% chance of no hike. Just one data point turned the entire market’s expectations upside down. BTC jumped from 77,000 to 82,000, 5,000 points, in three days.
Brothers, this is what I’ve been saying: the market trades on expectations, not facts. When expectations shift from "definitely hiking" to "possibly not hiking," the price jumps 5,000 points. So what if on September 16th they really don’t hike? You do the math on how much more it can rise.
And what if they do hike? It still goes up. Why? Because 40% of people already think there won’t be a hike; if it happens, the bad news is fully priced in, those who wanted to sell have already sold, and with no one left to sell, the price can only rise. Both scenarios lead to a rise; this is the current pattern.
Hold your base position tight, don’t make rash moves. Add more only if it breaks 82,500; if not, wait for a pullback. After September 16th, check where the price stands.
Don’t ask me how I know. On the day of the rate hike, come back and like this.
#BTC #RateHike #ADP #FOMC #TimeTravelerThe market changed overnight, with $BTC bouncing from 77,000 straight up to 81,000! $ETH reclaimed 2,500, and $SOL also rose above 105. But looking closely, this surge is not due to a fundamental reversal; it’s driven by sentiment recovery from news combined with short squeeze liquidations #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Federal Reserve Governor Waller dropped a dovish hint, which was the most direct trigger. He said if inflation continues to cool, rates should remain unchanged, pushing the probability of a September rate hike down from 66% to around 50%. The market immediately amplified this signal—initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, adding signs of labor market cooling, triggering a chain of short liquidations, and prices were pushed up accordingly #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
However, from the market details, the quality of this rebound is not very high. After $BTC touched 82,000, it quickly fell back and is now hovering around 81,000, a typical spike-and-fall pattern. Although $ETH returned to 2,510, institutional wallets transferred 167,800 ETH to CEX over the past three days, about $400 million, so selling pressure between 2,430-2,450 has not disappeared. $SOL surged the most, but high-beta assets tend to rise fast and fall fast #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验